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000
FXUS61 KRNK 041356
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
956 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SOME PATCHY FOG STILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER...NEW...AND JACKSON RIVER BASINS...BUT IS DISSIPATING.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SO THAT MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL BE FOG-
FREE BY 1100 AM. THE PROSPECTS OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. THE LATEST FORECAST WILL
REFLECT ONE SMALL CHANGE. ONSET TIME OF INITIATION HAS BEEN
DELAYED AN HOUR...MORE IN THE 11AM TO NOON RANGE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT THE SAME.

AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA BY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG
WITH A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE OHIO VALLEY THAT SHOULD
SCOOT SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTERACT WITH MOIST
PWATS/STRONG INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
LATER ON.

MOST MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AIDED BY
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG AN AXIS
OF PROGGED HIGHER 85H THETA-E. HOWEVER A FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FOLDING OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY INDUCE A WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS TRENDED
LIKELY POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARD NW NC/SOUTHSIDE
VA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LATE PER
PROGGED HIGHER PWATS COMING IN LINE WITH THE WAVE. OTHERWISE
RUNNING WITH DECENT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST SOUNDINGS OVERALL. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF HEATING WITH HIGHS AGAIN LIKELY PUSHING 90 BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS SE...SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY AGAIN ORGANIZE MORE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE SLIDING SW THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
PRIOR TO THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COVERAGE
FOR CONTINUED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST...AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING AND EXITING LIFT CAUSE WEST BOUND CONVECTION TO BECOME
MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO END
UP OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WHERE WILL BE GETTING MORE OF A EAST/SE TRAJECTORY INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRYING FAR NE SECTIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE...OTHERWISE LOOKING
AT RANGE FROM LOW CHANCES NORTH TO HIGHER CHANCES SW LATE. EXPECT OVERALL
CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS TO HOLD TEMPS UP DESPITE
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HYBRID WEDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEDGE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL
STRETCH SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EASTERLY
FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EACH PERIOD AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PARENT
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY...LEAVING A BAGGY HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DRY AIR MAY
BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW FORMS
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH A WEDGE IN PLAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT HELP WARM THE WEST
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUDY BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ONLY TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS
AND ANY RAIN FALLING COULD COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5F-8F COOLER
THAN NORMAL. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE RAIN OR CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN MUGGY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
WITH MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY.
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMER 850
MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR IN THE VALLEYS AT KLWB AND KBCB WITH SPOTTY
MVFR ACROSS THE EAST. EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN
ERODE OVER THE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR
UNDER AC AND DEVELOPING CU THROUGH MIDDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA LATER TODAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS BEST
COVERAGE EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT EAST ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND VCTS IN SE WEST
VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY
SCATTERED CU FIELDS BY LATE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY 4-6K FT CU CIGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS
DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE LATER ON.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. THINK IFR/LIFR AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND
KLWB BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH IFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS MVFR
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF KROA PENDING RAINFALL.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 3RD
SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE DROUGHT SCALE HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA COVERING
MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS. PARTS OF THE UPPER
YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE
DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR
LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE
CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED WELL UNDER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD
COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36
INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 041356
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
956 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SOME PATCHY FOG STILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER...NEW...AND JACKSON RIVER BASINS...BUT IS DISSIPATING.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SO THAT MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL BE FOG-
FREE BY 1100 AM. THE PROSPECTS OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. THE LATEST FORECAST WILL
REFLECT ONE SMALL CHANGE. ONSET TIME OF INITIATION HAS BEEN
DELAYED AN HOUR...MORE IN THE 11AM TO NOON RANGE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT THE SAME.

AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA BY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG
WITH A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE OHIO VALLEY THAT SHOULD
SCOOT SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTERACT WITH MOIST
PWATS/STRONG INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
LATER ON.

MOST MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AIDED BY
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG AN AXIS
OF PROGGED HIGHER 85H THETA-E. HOWEVER A FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FOLDING OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY INDUCE A WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS TRENDED
LIKELY POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARD NW NC/SOUTHSIDE
VA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LATE PER
PROGGED HIGHER PWATS COMING IN LINE WITH THE WAVE. OTHERWISE
RUNNING WITH DECENT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST SOUNDINGS OVERALL. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF HEATING WITH HIGHS AGAIN LIKELY PUSHING 90 BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS SE...SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY AGAIN ORGANIZE MORE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE SLIDING SW THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
PRIOR TO THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COVERAGE
FOR CONTINUED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST...AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING AND EXITING LIFT CAUSE WEST BOUND CONVECTION TO BECOME
MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO END
UP OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WHERE WILL BE GETTING MORE OF A EAST/SE TRAJECTORY INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRYING FAR NE SECTIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE...OTHERWISE LOOKING
AT RANGE FROM LOW CHANCES NORTH TO HIGHER CHANCES SW LATE. EXPECT OVERALL
CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS TO HOLD TEMPS UP DESPITE
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HYBRID WEDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEDGE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL
STRETCH SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EASTERLY
FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EACH PERIOD AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PARENT
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY...LEAVING A BAGGY HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DRY AIR MAY
BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW FORMS
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH A WEDGE IN PLAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT HELP WARM THE WEST
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUDY BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ONLY TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS
AND ANY RAIN FALLING COULD COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5F-8F COOLER
THAN NORMAL. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE RAIN OR CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN MUGGY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
WITH MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY.
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMER 850
MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR IN THE VALLEYS AT KLWB AND KBCB WITH SPOTTY
MVFR ACROSS THE EAST. EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN
ERODE OVER THE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR
UNDER AC AND DEVELOPING CU THROUGH MIDDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA LATER TODAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS BEST
COVERAGE EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT EAST ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND VCTS IN SE WEST
VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY
SCATTERED CU FIELDS BY LATE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY 4-6K FT CU CIGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS
DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE LATER ON.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. THINK IFR/LIFR AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND
KLWB BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH IFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS MVFR
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF KROA PENDING RAINFALL.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 3RD
SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE DROUGHT SCALE HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA COVERING
MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS. PARTS OF THE UPPER
YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE
DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR
LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE
CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED WELL UNDER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD
COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36
INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 041356
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
956 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SOME PATCHY FOG STILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER...NEW...AND JACKSON RIVER BASINS...BUT IS DISSIPATING.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SO THAT MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL BE FOG-
FREE BY 1100 AM. THE PROSPECTS OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. THE LATEST FORECAST WILL
REFLECT ONE SMALL CHANGE. ONSET TIME OF INITIATION HAS BEEN
DELAYED AN HOUR...MORE IN THE 11AM TO NOON RANGE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT THE SAME.

AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA BY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG
WITH A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE OHIO VALLEY THAT SHOULD
SCOOT SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTERACT WITH MOIST
PWATS/STRONG INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
LATER ON.

MOST MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AIDED BY
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG AN AXIS
OF PROGGED HIGHER 85H THETA-E. HOWEVER A FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FOLDING OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY INDUCE A WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS TRENDED
LIKELY POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARD NW NC/SOUTHSIDE
VA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LATE PER
PROGGED HIGHER PWATS COMING IN LINE WITH THE WAVE. OTHERWISE
RUNNING WITH DECENT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST SOUNDINGS OVERALL. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF HEATING WITH HIGHS AGAIN LIKELY PUSHING 90 BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS SE...SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY AGAIN ORGANIZE MORE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE SLIDING SW THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
PRIOR TO THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COVERAGE
FOR CONTINUED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST...AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING AND EXITING LIFT CAUSE WEST BOUND CONVECTION TO BECOME
MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO END
UP OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WHERE WILL BE GETTING MORE OF A EAST/SE TRAJECTORY INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRYING FAR NE SECTIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE...OTHERWISE LOOKING
AT RANGE FROM LOW CHANCES NORTH TO HIGHER CHANCES SW LATE. EXPECT OVERALL
CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS TO HOLD TEMPS UP DESPITE
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HYBRID WEDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEDGE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL
STRETCH SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EASTERLY
FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EACH PERIOD AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PARENT
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY...LEAVING A BAGGY HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DRY AIR MAY
BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW FORMS
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH A WEDGE IN PLAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT HELP WARM THE WEST
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUDY BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ONLY TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS
AND ANY RAIN FALLING COULD COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5F-8F COOLER
THAN NORMAL. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE RAIN OR CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN MUGGY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
WITH MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY.
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMER 850
MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR IN THE VALLEYS AT KLWB AND KBCB WITH SPOTTY
MVFR ACROSS THE EAST. EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN
ERODE OVER THE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR
UNDER AC AND DEVELOPING CU THROUGH MIDDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA LATER TODAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS BEST
COVERAGE EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT EAST ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND VCTS IN SE WEST
VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY
SCATTERED CU FIELDS BY LATE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY 4-6K FT CU CIGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS
DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE LATER ON.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. THINK IFR/LIFR AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND
KLWB BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH IFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS MVFR
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF KROA PENDING RAINFALL.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 3RD
SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE DROUGHT SCALE HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA COVERING
MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS. PARTS OF THE UPPER
YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE
DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR
LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE
CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED WELL UNDER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD
COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36
INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 041105
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA BY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG
WITH A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE OHIO VALLEY THAT SHOULD
SCOOT SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTERACT WITH MOIST
PWATS/STRONG INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
LATER ON.

MOST MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AIDED BY
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG AN AXIS
OF PROGGED HIGHER 85H THETA-E. HOWEVER A FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FOLDING OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY INDUCE A WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS TRENDED
LIKELY POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARD NW NC/SOUTHSIDE
VA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LATE PER
PROGGED HIGHER PWATS COMING IN LINE WITH THE WAVE. OTHERWISE
RUNNING WITH DECENT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST SOUNDINGS OVERALL. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF HEATING WITH HIGHS AGAIN LIKELY PUSHING 90 BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS SE...SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY AGAIN ORGANIZE MORE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE SLIDING SW THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
PRIOR TO THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COVERAGE
FOR CONTINUED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST...AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING AND EXITING LIFT CAUSE WEST BOUND CONVECTION TO BECOME
MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO END
UP OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WHERE WILL BE GETTING MORE OF A EAST/SE TRAJECTORY INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRYING FAR NE SECTIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE...OTHERWISE LOOKING
AT RANGE FROM LOW CHANCES NORTH TO HIGHER CHANCES SW LATE. EXPECT OVERALL
CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS TO HOLD TEMPS UP DESPITE
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HYBRID WEDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEDGE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL
STRETCH SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EASTERLY
FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EACH PERIOD AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PARENT
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY...LEAVING A BAGGY HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DRY AIR MAY
BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW FORMS
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH A WEDGE IN PLAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT HELP WARM THE WEST
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUDY BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ONLY TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS
AND ANY RAIN FALLING COULD COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5F-8F COOLER
THAN NORMAL. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE RAIN OR CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN MUGGY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
WITH MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY.
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMER 850
MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR IN THE VALLEYS AT KLWB AND KBCB WITH SPOTTY
MVFR ACROSS THE EAST. EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN
ERODE OVER THE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR
UNDER AC AND DEVELOPING CU THROUGH MIDDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA LATER TODAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS BEST
COVERAGE EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT EAST ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND VCTS IN SE WEST
VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY
SCATTERED CU FIELDS BY LATE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY 4-6K FT CU CIGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS
DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE LATER ON.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. THINK IFR/LIFR AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND
KLWB BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH IFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS MVFR
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF KROA PENDING RAINFALL.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 3RD
SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE DROUGHT SCALE HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA COVERING
MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS. PARTS OF THE UPPER
YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE
DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR
LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE
CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED WELL UNDER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD
COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36
INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 041105
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA BY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG
WITH A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE OHIO VALLEY THAT SHOULD
SCOOT SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTERACT WITH MOIST
PWATS/STRONG INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
LATER ON.

MOST MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AIDED BY
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG AN AXIS
OF PROGGED HIGHER 85H THETA-E. HOWEVER A FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FOLDING OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY INDUCE A WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS TRENDED
LIKELY POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARD NW NC/SOUTHSIDE
VA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LATE PER
PROGGED HIGHER PWATS COMING IN LINE WITH THE WAVE. OTHERWISE
RUNNING WITH DECENT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST SOUNDINGS OVERALL. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF HEATING WITH HIGHS AGAIN LIKELY PUSHING 90 BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS SE...SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY AGAIN ORGANIZE MORE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE SLIDING SW THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
PRIOR TO THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COVERAGE
FOR CONTINUED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST...AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING AND EXITING LIFT CAUSE WEST BOUND CONVECTION TO BECOME
MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO END
UP OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WHERE WILL BE GETTING MORE OF A EAST/SE TRAJECTORY INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRYING FAR NE SECTIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE...OTHERWISE LOOKING
AT RANGE FROM LOW CHANCES NORTH TO HIGHER CHANCES SW LATE. EXPECT OVERALL
CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS TO HOLD TEMPS UP DESPITE
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HYBRID WEDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEDGE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL
STRETCH SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EASTERLY
FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EACH PERIOD AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PARENT
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY...LEAVING A BAGGY HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DRY AIR MAY
BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW FORMS
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH A WEDGE IN PLAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT HELP WARM THE WEST
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUDY BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ONLY TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS
AND ANY RAIN FALLING COULD COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5F-8F COOLER
THAN NORMAL. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE RAIN OR CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN MUGGY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
WITH MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY.
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMER 850
MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR IN THE VALLEYS AT KLWB AND KBCB WITH SPOTTY
MVFR ACROSS THE EAST. EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN
ERODE OVER THE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR
UNDER AC AND DEVELOPING CU THROUGH MIDDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA LATER TODAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS BEST
COVERAGE EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT EAST ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND VCTS IN SE WEST
VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY
SCATTERED CU FIELDS BY LATE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY 4-6K FT CU CIGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS
DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE LATER ON.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. THINK IFR/LIFR AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND
KLWB BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH IFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS MVFR
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF KROA PENDING RAINFALL.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 3RD
SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE DROUGHT SCALE HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA COVERING
MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS. PARTS OF THE UPPER
YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE
DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR
LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE
CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED WELL UNDER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD
COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36
INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 041105
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA BY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG
WITH A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE OHIO VALLEY THAT SHOULD
SCOOT SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTERACT WITH MOIST
PWATS/STRONG INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
LATER ON.

MOST MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AIDED BY
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG AN AXIS
OF PROGGED HIGHER 85H THETA-E. HOWEVER A FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FOLDING OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY INDUCE A WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS TRENDED
LIKELY POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARD NW NC/SOUTHSIDE
VA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LATE PER
PROGGED HIGHER PWATS COMING IN LINE WITH THE WAVE. OTHERWISE
RUNNING WITH DECENT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST SOUNDINGS OVERALL. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF HEATING WITH HIGHS AGAIN LIKELY PUSHING 90 BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS SE...SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY AGAIN ORGANIZE MORE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE SLIDING SW THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
PRIOR TO THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COVERAGE
FOR CONTINUED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST...AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING AND EXITING LIFT CAUSE WEST BOUND CONVECTION TO BECOME
MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO END
UP OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WHERE WILL BE GETTING MORE OF A EAST/SE TRAJECTORY INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRYING FAR NE SECTIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE...OTHERWISE LOOKING
AT RANGE FROM LOW CHANCES NORTH TO HIGHER CHANCES SW LATE. EXPECT OVERALL
CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS TO HOLD TEMPS UP DESPITE
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HYBRID WEDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEDGE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL
STRETCH SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EASTERLY
FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EACH PERIOD AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PARENT
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY...LEAVING A BAGGY HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DRY AIR MAY
BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW FORMS
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH A WEDGE IN PLAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT HELP WARM THE WEST
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUDY BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ONLY TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS
AND ANY RAIN FALLING COULD COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5F-8F COOLER
THAN NORMAL. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE RAIN OR CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN MUGGY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
WITH MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY.
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMER 850
MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR IN THE VALLEYS AT KLWB AND KBCB WITH SPOTTY
MVFR ACROSS THE EAST. EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN
ERODE OVER THE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR
UNDER AC AND DEVELOPING CU THROUGH MIDDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA LATER TODAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS BEST
COVERAGE EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT EAST ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND VCTS IN SE WEST
VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY
SCATTERED CU FIELDS BY LATE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY 4-6K FT CU CIGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS
DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE LATER ON.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. THINK IFR/LIFR AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND
KLWB BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH IFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS MVFR
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF KROA PENDING RAINFALL.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 3RD
SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE DROUGHT SCALE HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA COVERING
MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS. PARTS OF THE UPPER
YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE
DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR
LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE
CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED WELL UNDER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD
COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36
INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 041105
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA BY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG
WITH A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE OHIO VALLEY THAT SHOULD
SCOOT SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTERACT WITH MOIST
PWATS/STRONG INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
LATER ON.

MOST MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AIDED BY
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG AN AXIS
OF PROGGED HIGHER 85H THETA-E. HOWEVER A FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FOLDING OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY INDUCE A WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS TRENDED
LIKELY POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARD NW NC/SOUTHSIDE
VA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LATE PER
PROGGED HIGHER PWATS COMING IN LINE WITH THE WAVE. OTHERWISE
RUNNING WITH DECENT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST SOUNDINGS OVERALL. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF HEATING WITH HIGHS AGAIN LIKELY PUSHING 90 BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS SE...SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY AGAIN ORGANIZE MORE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE SLIDING SW THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
PRIOR TO THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COVERAGE
FOR CONTINUED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST...AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING AND EXITING LIFT CAUSE WEST BOUND CONVECTION TO BECOME
MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO END
UP OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WHERE WILL BE GETTING MORE OF A EAST/SE TRAJECTORY INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRYING FAR NE SECTIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE...OTHERWISE LOOKING
AT RANGE FROM LOW CHANCES NORTH TO HIGHER CHANCES SW LATE. EXPECT OVERALL
CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS TO HOLD TEMPS UP DESPITE
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HYBRID WEDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEDGE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL
STRETCH SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EASTERLY
FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EACH PERIOD AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PARENT
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY...LEAVING A BAGGY HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DRY AIR MAY
BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW FORMS
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH A WEDGE IN PLAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT HELP WARM THE WEST
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUDY BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ONLY TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS
AND ANY RAIN FALLING COULD COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5F-8F COOLER
THAN NORMAL. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE RAIN OR CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN MUGGY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
WITH MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY.
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMER 850
MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR IN THE VALLEYS AT KLWB AND KBCB WITH SPOTTY
MVFR ACROSS THE EAST. EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN
ERODE OVER THE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR
UNDER AC AND DEVELOPING CU THROUGH MIDDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA LATER TODAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS BEST
COVERAGE EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT EAST ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND VCTS IN SE WEST
VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY
SCATTERED CU FIELDS BY LATE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY 4-6K FT CU CIGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS
DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE LATER ON.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. THINK IFR/LIFR AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND
KLWB BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH IFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS MVFR
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF KROA PENDING RAINFALL.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 3RD
SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE DROUGHT SCALE HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA COVERING
MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS. PARTS OF THE UPPER
YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE
DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR
LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE
CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED WELL UNDER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD
COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36
INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 040713
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
313 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA BY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG
WITH A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE OHIO VALLEY THAT SHOULD
SCOOT SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTERACT WITH MOIST
PWATS/STRONG INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
LATER ON.

MOST MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AIDED BY
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG AN AXIS
OF PROGGED HIGHER 85H THETA-E. HOWEVER A FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FOLDING OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY INDUCE A WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS TRENDED
LIKELY POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARD NW NC/SOUTHSIDE
VA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LATE PER
PROGGED HIGHER PWATS COMING IN LINE WITH THE WAVE. OTHERWISE
RUNNING WITH DECENT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST SOUNDINGS OVERALL. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF HEATING WITH HIGHS AGAIN LIKELY PUSHING 90 BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS SE...SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY AGAIN ORGANIZE MORE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE SLIDING SW THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
PRIOR TO THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COVERAGE
FOR CONTINUED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST...AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING AND EXITING LIFT CAUSE WEST BOUND CONVECTION TO BECOME
MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO END
UP OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WHERE WILL BE GETTING MORE OF A EAST/SE TRAJECTORY INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRYING FAR NE SECTIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE...OTHERWISE LOOKING
AT RANGE FROM LOW CHANCES NORTH TO HIGHER CHANCES SW LATE. EXPECT OVERALL
CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS TO HOLD TEMPS UP DESPITE
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HYBRID WEDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEDGE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL
STRETCH SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EASTERLY
FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EACH PERIOD AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PARENT
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY...LEAVING A BAGGY HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DRY AIR MAY
BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW FORMS
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH A WEDGE IN PLAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT HELP WARM THE WEST
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUDY BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ONLY TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS
AND ANY RAIN FALLING COULD COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5F-8F COOLER
THAN NORMAL. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE RAIN OR CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN MUGGY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
WITH MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY.
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMER 850
MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR/LIFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SPOTS WHERE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL OCCURRED NAMELY AT KBCB/KLWB. OTRW LOOKING AT
SPOTTY MVFR IN FOG WITH ONLY SOME MID DECK AROUND WHERE STRATUS
DOES NOT DEVELOP.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED
WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE
EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST
ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE
A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND VCTS IN SE WEST VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST
SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CU FIELDS BY LATE
MORNING...WITH 4-6K FT CU CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING
WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE
LATER ON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 3RD
SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE DROUGHT SCALE HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA COVERING
MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS. PARTS OF THE UPPER
YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE
DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR
LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE
CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED WELL UNDER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD
COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36
INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040713
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
313 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA BY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG
WITH A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE OHIO VALLEY THAT SHOULD
SCOOT SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTERACT WITH MOIST
PWATS/STRONG INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
LATER ON.

MOST MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AIDED BY
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG AN AXIS
OF PROGGED HIGHER 85H THETA-E. HOWEVER A FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FOLDING OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY INDUCE A WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS TRENDED
LIKELY POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARD NW NC/SOUTHSIDE
VA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LATE PER
PROGGED HIGHER PWATS COMING IN LINE WITH THE WAVE. OTHERWISE
RUNNING WITH DECENT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST SOUNDINGS OVERALL. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF HEATING WITH HIGHS AGAIN LIKELY PUSHING 90 BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS SE...SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY AGAIN ORGANIZE MORE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE SLIDING SW THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
PRIOR TO THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COVERAGE
FOR CONTINUED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST...AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING AND EXITING LIFT CAUSE WEST BOUND CONVECTION TO BECOME
MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO END
UP OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WHERE WILL BE GETTING MORE OF A EAST/SE TRAJECTORY INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRYING FAR NE SECTIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE...OTHERWISE LOOKING
AT RANGE FROM LOW CHANCES NORTH TO HIGHER CHANCES SW LATE. EXPECT OVERALL
CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS TO HOLD TEMPS UP DESPITE
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HYBRID WEDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEDGE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL
STRETCH SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EASTERLY
FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EACH PERIOD AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PARENT
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY...LEAVING A BAGGY HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DRY AIR MAY
BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW FORMS
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH A WEDGE IN PLAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT HELP WARM THE WEST
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUDY BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ONLY TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS
AND ANY RAIN FALLING COULD COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5F-8F COOLER
THAN NORMAL. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE RAIN OR CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN MUGGY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
WITH MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY.
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMER 850
MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR/LIFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SPOTS WHERE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL OCCURRED NAMELY AT KBCB/KLWB. OTRW LOOKING AT
SPOTTY MVFR IN FOG WITH ONLY SOME MID DECK AROUND WHERE STRATUS
DOES NOT DEVELOP.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED
WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE
EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST
ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE
A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND VCTS IN SE WEST VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST
SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CU FIELDS BY LATE
MORNING...WITH 4-6K FT CU CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING
WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE
LATER ON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 3RD
SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE DROUGHT SCALE HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA COVERING
MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS. PARTS OF THE UPPER
YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE
DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR
LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE
CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED WELL UNDER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD
COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36
INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 040518
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
118 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS RAPIDLY FALLEN OFF WITH
SUNSET AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A FEW SPOTS PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS SAW LITTLE OR NOTHING.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TREND
MORE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF EVENTUALLY BRINGING
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUD COVER...AND PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY. TRAJECTORIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREA THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE INDICATE EAST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 500MB. BUFKIT WAS ALSO SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL MODELS
WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AS IN PAST FEW RUNS.

BEST LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE UPSLOPE WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY NOT AS MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. THIS
WILL MEAN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.

12Z GFS WAS FARTHER EAST WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS
TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL BE
TRIMMING BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH
MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
TUESDAY. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR/LIFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SPOTS WHERE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL OCCURRED NAMELY AT KBCB/KLWB. OTRW LOOKING AT
SPOTTY MVFR IN FOG WITH ONLY SOME MID DECK AROUND WHERE STRATUS
DOES NOT DEVELOP.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED
WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE
EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST
ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE
A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND VCTS IN SE WEST VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST
SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CU FIELDS BY LATE
MORNING...WITH 4-6K FT CU CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING
WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE
LATER ON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING
SEPTEMBER 3RD SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE
DROUGHT SCALE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA COVERING MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS.
PARTS OF THE UPPER YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE
ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED
WELL UNDER 2 INCHES OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING
HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 040518
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
118 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS RAPIDLY FALLEN OFF WITH
SUNSET AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A FEW SPOTS PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS SAW LITTLE OR NOTHING.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TREND
MORE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF EVENTUALLY BRINGING
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUD COVER...AND PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY. TRAJECTORIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREA THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE INDICATE EAST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 500MB. BUFKIT WAS ALSO SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL MODELS
WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AS IN PAST FEW RUNS.

BEST LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE UPSLOPE WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY NOT AS MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. THIS
WILL MEAN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.

12Z GFS WAS FARTHER EAST WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS
TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL BE
TRIMMING BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH
MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
TUESDAY. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR/LIFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SPOTS WHERE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL OCCURRED NAMELY AT KBCB/KLWB. OTRW LOOKING AT
SPOTTY MVFR IN FOG WITH ONLY SOME MID DECK AROUND WHERE STRATUS
DOES NOT DEVELOP.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED
WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE
EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST
ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE
A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND VCTS IN SE WEST VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST
SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CU FIELDS BY LATE
MORNING...WITH 4-6K FT CU CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING
WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE
LATER ON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING
SEPTEMBER 3RD SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE
DROUGHT SCALE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA COVERING MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS.
PARTS OF THE UPPER YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE
ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED
WELL UNDER 2 INCHES OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING
HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040518
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
118 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS RAPIDLY FALLEN OFF WITH
SUNSET AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A FEW SPOTS PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS SAW LITTLE OR NOTHING.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TREND
MORE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF EVENTUALLY BRINGING
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUD COVER...AND PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY. TRAJECTORIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREA THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE INDICATE EAST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 500MB. BUFKIT WAS ALSO SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL MODELS
WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AS IN PAST FEW RUNS.

BEST LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE UPSLOPE WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY NOT AS MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. THIS
WILL MEAN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.

12Z GFS WAS FARTHER EAST WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS
TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL BE
TRIMMING BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH
MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
TUESDAY. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR/LIFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SPOTS WHERE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL OCCURRED NAMELY AT KBCB/KLWB. OTRW LOOKING AT
SPOTTY MVFR IN FOG WITH ONLY SOME MID DECK AROUND WHERE STRATUS
DOES NOT DEVELOP.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED
WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE
EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST
ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE
A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND VCTS IN SE WEST VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST
SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CU FIELDS BY LATE
MORNING...WITH 4-6K FT CU CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING
WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE
LATER ON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING
SEPTEMBER 3RD SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE
DROUGHT SCALE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA COVERING MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS.
PARTS OF THE UPPER YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE
ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED
WELL UNDER 2 INCHES OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING
HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 040518
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
118 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS RAPIDLY FALLEN OFF WITH
SUNSET AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A FEW SPOTS PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS SAW LITTLE OR NOTHING.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TREND
MORE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF EVENTUALLY BRINGING
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUD COVER...AND PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY. TRAJECTORIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREA THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE INDICATE EAST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 500MB. BUFKIT WAS ALSO SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL MODELS
WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AS IN PAST FEW RUNS.

BEST LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE UPSLOPE WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY NOT AS MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. THIS
WILL MEAN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.

12Z GFS WAS FARTHER EAST WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS
TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL BE
TRIMMING BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH
MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
TUESDAY. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR/LIFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SPOTS WHERE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL OCCURRED NAMELY AT KBCB/KLWB. OTRW LOOKING AT
SPOTTY MVFR IN FOG WITH ONLY SOME MID DECK AROUND WHERE STRATUS
DOES NOT DEVELOP.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY
PRECEDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED
WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TO THE NW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE
EARLY ON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST
ONCE THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE
A PREVAILING SHRA GROUP WITH EMBEDDED VCTS AT MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND VCTS IN SE WEST VA FOR NOW. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ESPCLY SOUTH INTO THE EVENING SO KEPT MENTION IN PAST
SUNSET. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CU FIELDS BY LATE
MORNING...WITH 4-6K FT CU CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
WHERE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING
WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE
LATER ON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING
SEPTEMBER 3RD SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE
DROUGHT SCALE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA COVERING MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS.
PARTS OF THE UPPER YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE
ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED
WELL UNDER 2 INCHES OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING
HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040004
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
804 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RESURGENCE OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS RAPIDLY FALLEN OFF WITH
SUNSET AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A FEW SPOTS PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS SAW LITTLE OR NOTHING.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TREND
MORE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF EVENTUALLY BRINGING
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUD COVER...AND PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY. TRAJECTORIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREA THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE INDICATE EAST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 500MB. BUFKIT WAS ALSO SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL MODELS
WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AS IN PAST FEW RUNS.

BEST LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE UPSLOPE WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY NOT AS MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. THIS
WILL MEAN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.

12Z GFS WAS FARTHER EAST WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS
TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL BE
TRIMMING BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH
MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
TUESDAY. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY FADED WITH LOSS OF
AFTERNOON HEATING AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
POCKETS OF FOG OR REDUCED VSBY LIKELY BY EARLY MORNING AT SEVERAL
TAF SITES.

EARLY FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TREND NORTHEAST
OR EAST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT CLOUD COVER INTO THE REGION AND
ALSO ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE CLOUD DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY BE VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WITH
POCKETS OF MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING
SEPTEMBER 3RD SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE
DROUGHT SCALE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA COVERING MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS.
PARTS OF THE UPPER YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE
ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED
WELL UNDER 2 INCHES OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING
HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 040004
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
804 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RESURGENCE OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS RAPIDLY FALLEN OFF WITH
SUNSET AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A FEW SPOTS PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS SAW LITTLE OR NOTHING.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TREND
MORE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF EVENTUALLY BRINGING
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUD COVER...AND PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY. TRAJECTORIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREA THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE INDICATE EAST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 500MB. BUFKIT WAS ALSO SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL MODELS
WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AS IN PAST FEW RUNS.

BEST LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE UPSLOPE WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY NOT AS MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. THIS
WILL MEAN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.

12Z GFS WAS FARTHER EAST WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS
TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL BE
TRIMMING BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH
MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
TUESDAY. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY FADED WITH LOSS OF
AFTERNOON HEATING AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
POCKETS OF FOG OR REDUCED VSBY LIKELY BY EARLY MORNING AT SEVERAL
TAF SITES.

EARLY FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TREND NORTHEAST
OR EAST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT CLOUD COVER INTO THE REGION AND
ALSO ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE CLOUD DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY BE VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WITH
POCKETS OF MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING
SEPTEMBER 3RD SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE
DROUGHT SCALE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA COVERING MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS.
PARTS OF THE UPPER YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE
ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED
WELL UNDER 2 INCHES OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING
HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040004
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
804 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RESURGENCE OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS RAPIDLY FALLEN OFF WITH
SUNSET AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A FEW SPOTS PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS SAW LITTLE OR NOTHING.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TREND
MORE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF EVENTUALLY BRINGING
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUD COVER...AND PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY. TRAJECTORIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREA THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE INDICATE EAST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 500MB. BUFKIT WAS ALSO SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL MODELS
WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AS IN PAST FEW RUNS.

BEST LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE UPSLOPE WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY NOT AS MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. THIS
WILL MEAN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.

12Z GFS WAS FARTHER EAST WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS
TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL BE
TRIMMING BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH
MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
TUESDAY. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY FADED WITH LOSS OF
AFTERNOON HEATING AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
POCKETS OF FOG OR REDUCED VSBY LIKELY BY EARLY MORNING AT SEVERAL
TAF SITES.

EARLY FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TREND NORTHEAST
OR EAST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT CLOUD COVER INTO THE REGION AND
ALSO ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE CLOUD DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY BE VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WITH
POCKETS OF MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING
SEPTEMBER 3RD SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE
DROUGHT SCALE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA COVERING MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS.
PARTS OF THE UPPER YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE
ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED
WELL UNDER 2 INCHES OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING
HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040004
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
804 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RESURGENCE OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS RAPIDLY FALLEN OFF WITH
SUNSET AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A FEW SPOTS PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS SAW LITTLE OR NOTHING.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TREND
MORE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF EVENTUALLY BRINGING
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUD COVER...AND PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY. TRAJECTORIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREA THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE INDICATE EAST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 500MB. BUFKIT WAS ALSO SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL MODELS
WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AS IN PAST FEW RUNS.

BEST LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE UPSLOPE WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY NOT AS MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. THIS
WILL MEAN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.

12Z GFS WAS FARTHER EAST WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS
TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL BE
TRIMMING BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH
MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
TUESDAY. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY FADED WITH LOSS OF
AFTERNOON HEATING AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
POCKETS OF FOG OR REDUCED VSBY LIKELY BY EARLY MORNING AT SEVERAL
TAF SITES.

EARLY FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TREND NORTHEAST
OR EAST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT CLOUD COVER INTO THE REGION AND
ALSO ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE CLOUD DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY BE VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WITH
POCKETS OF MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING
SEPTEMBER 3RD SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE
DROUGHT SCALE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA COVERING MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS.
PARTS OF THE UPPER YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE
ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED
WELL UNDER 2 INCHES OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING
HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 032002
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
402 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RESURGENCE OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
INCREASED INTO THE 2000 - 2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM RANGE. EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VALUES WERE MAINLY STILL UNDER 1000
JOULES PER KILOGRAM. OUR UPCOMING FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
THAT OF THE ONGOING FORECAST. WE ARE EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE IS SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SCATTERED
COVERAGE ACROSS THIS MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE TRENDING TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TREND
MORE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF EVENTUALLY BRINGING
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUD COVER...AND PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY. TRAJECTORIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREA THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE INDICATE EAST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 500MB. BUFKIT WAS ALSO SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL MODELS
WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AS IN PAST FEW RUNS.

BEST LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE UPSLOPE WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY NOT AS MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. THIS
WILL MEAN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.

12Z GFS WAS FARTHER EAST WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS
TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL BE
TRIMMING BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH
MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
TUESDAY. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
CURRENTLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES OF THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE PROGRESSING
SOUTH THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION. AS THE REGION CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SUCH A LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT ROANOKE
BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND 20Z/4PM WITH THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH ALLEGHANY COUNTY
VIRGINIA. FOR THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES SAVE DANVILLE...HAVE
INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY OF SHOWERS OR VICINITY OF THUNDER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THE ACTIVITY TO PASS OVER
A GIVEN AIRPORT...AN ADMENDMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND
GRADUALLY ENTER INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS POINT COVERAGE
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...LEAVING ISOLATED COVERAGE BY THE LATE
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TREND NORTHEAST OR EAST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT CLOUD COVER INTO THE
REGION AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE CLOUD DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE BY THE LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOONTIME ON FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY BE VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WITH POCKETS OF
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES. MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG OR
MIST IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE MORE LIKELY WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 032002
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
402 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RESURGENCE OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
INCREASED INTO THE 2000 - 2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM RANGE. EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VALUES WERE MAINLY STILL UNDER 1000
JOULES PER KILOGRAM. OUR UPCOMING FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
THAT OF THE ONGOING FORECAST. WE ARE EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE IS SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SCATTERED
COVERAGE ACROSS THIS MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE TRENDING TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TREND
MORE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF EVENTUALLY BRINGING
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUD COVER...AND PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY. TRAJECTORIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREA THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WEDGE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE INDICATE EAST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 500MB. BUFKIT WAS ALSO SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL MODELS
WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AS IN PAST FEW RUNS.

BEST LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE UPSLOPE WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY NOT AS MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. THIS
WILL MEAN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.

12Z GFS WAS FARTHER EAST WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS
TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL BE
TRIMMING BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH
MORE TROUGHING ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A DEEP WEDGE
COVERING THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
TUESDAY. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SLOW DOWN THE TIMING AND THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
CURRENTLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES OF THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE PROGRESSING
SOUTH THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION. AS THE REGION CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SUCH A LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT ROANOKE
BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND 20Z/4PM WITH THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH ALLEGHANY COUNTY
VIRGINIA. FOR THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES SAVE DANVILLE...HAVE
INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY OF SHOWERS OR VICINITY OF THUNDER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THE ACTIVITY TO PASS OVER
A GIVEN AIRPORT...AN ADMENDMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND
GRADUALLY ENTER INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS POINT COVERAGE
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...LEAVING ISOLATED COVERAGE BY THE LATE
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TREND NORTHEAST OR EAST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT CLOUD COVER INTO THE
REGION AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE CLOUD DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE BY THE LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOONTIME ON FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY BE VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WITH POCKETS OF
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES. MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG OR
MIST IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE MORE LIKELY WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031747
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOCAL RADAR IS CONTINUING TO TRACK A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
HEADING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING NORTH OF LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR FORECAST IS STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO EITHER MOVE INTO THE
REGION...OVER DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MADE NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH OUR FORECAST NUMBERS...OR BE A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 950 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE
ONLY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.

AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
CURRENTLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES OF THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE PROGRESSING
SOUTH THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION. AS THE REGION CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SUCH A LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT ROANOKE
BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND 20Z/4PM WITH THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH ALLEGHANY COUNTY
VIRGINIA. FOR THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES SAVE DANVILLE...HAVE
INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY OF SHOWERS OR VICINITY OF THUNDER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THE ACTIVITY TO PASS OVER
A GIVEN AIRPORT...AN ADMENDMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND
GRADUALLY ENTER INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS POINT COVERAGE
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...LEAVING ISOLATED COVERAGE BY THE LATE
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TREND NORTHEAST OR EAST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT CLOUD COVER INTO THE
REGION AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE CLOUD DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE BY THE LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOONTIME ON FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY BE VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WITH POCKETS OF
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES. MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG OR
MIST IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE MORE LIKELY WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...DS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031747
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOCAL RADAR IS CONTINUING TO TRACK A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
HEADING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING NORTH OF LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR FORECAST IS STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO EITHER MOVE INTO THE
REGION...OVER DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MADE NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH OUR FORECAST NUMBERS...OR BE A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 950 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE
ONLY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.

AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
CURRENTLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES OF THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE PROGRESSING
SOUTH THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION. AS THE REGION CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SUCH A LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT ROANOKE
BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND 20Z/4PM WITH THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH ALLEGHANY COUNTY
VIRGINIA. FOR THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES SAVE DANVILLE...HAVE
INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY OF SHOWERS OR VICINITY OF THUNDER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THE ACTIVITY TO PASS OVER
A GIVEN AIRPORT...AN ADMENDMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND
GRADUALLY ENTER INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS POINT COVERAGE
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...LEAVING ISOLATED COVERAGE BY THE LATE
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TREND NORTHEAST OR EAST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT CLOUD COVER INTO THE
REGION AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE CLOUD DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE BY THE LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOONTIME ON FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY BE VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WITH POCKETS OF
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES. MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG OR
MIST IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE MORE LIKELY WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...DS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 031747
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOCAL RADAR IS CONTINUING TO TRACK A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
HEADING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING NORTH OF LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR FORECAST IS STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO EITHER MOVE INTO THE
REGION...OVER DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MADE NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH OUR FORECAST NUMBERS...OR BE A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 950 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE
ONLY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.

AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
CURRENTLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES OF THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE PROGRESSING
SOUTH THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION. AS THE REGION CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SUCH A LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT ROANOKE
BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND 20Z/4PM WITH THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH ALLEGHANY COUNTY
VIRGINIA. FOR THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES SAVE DANVILLE...HAVE
INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY OF SHOWERS OR VICINITY OF THUNDER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THE ACTIVITY TO PASS OVER
A GIVEN AIRPORT...AN ADMENDMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND
GRADUALLY ENTER INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS POINT COVERAGE
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...LEAVING ISOLATED COVERAGE BY THE LATE
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TREND NORTHEAST OR EAST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT CLOUD COVER INTO THE
REGION AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE CLOUD DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE BY THE LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOONTIME ON FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY BE VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WITH POCKETS OF
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES. MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG OR
MIST IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE MORE LIKELY WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...DS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 031747
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOCAL RADAR IS CONTINUING TO TRACK A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
HEADING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING NORTH OF LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR FORECAST IS STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO EITHER MOVE INTO THE
REGION...OVER DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MADE NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH OUR FORECAST NUMBERS...OR BE A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 950 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE
ONLY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.

AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
CURRENTLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES OF THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE PROGRESSING
SOUTH THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION. AS THE REGION CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SUCH A LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT ROANOKE
BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND 20Z/4PM WITH THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH ALLEGHANY COUNTY
VIRGINIA. FOR THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES SAVE DANVILLE...HAVE
INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY OF SHOWERS OR VICINITY OF THUNDER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THE ACTIVITY TO PASS OVER
A GIVEN AIRPORT...AN ADMENDMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND
GRADUALLY ENTER INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS POINT COVERAGE
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...LEAVING ISOLATED COVERAGE BY THE LATE
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TREND NORTHEAST OR EAST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT CLOUD COVER INTO THE
REGION AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE CLOUD DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE BY THE LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOONTIME ON FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY BE VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WITH POCKETS OF
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES. MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG OR
MIST IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE MORE LIKELY WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...DS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE
ONLY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.

AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOG REMAINS QUITE PATCHY ACROSS
THE REGION AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHERE SEEING SPOTTY LIFR TO MVFR. AGAIN EXPECT ANY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING INCLUDING CB
BUILDUPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHICH WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER THE RIDGES AS OLD OUTFLOW
AND PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS
KBLF/KLWB MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH VCSH AT KBCB/KROA.
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES CONVECTION TO FADE INTO VFR PRIOR TO ANY
FOG FORMATION. AGAIN APPEARS AREAS OF MVFR TO ISOLATED LIFR/IFR IN
FOG/STRATUS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS
AND WHERE ANY EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 031352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE
ONLY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.

AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOG REMAINS QUITE PATCHY ACROSS
THE REGION AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHERE SEEING SPOTTY LIFR TO MVFR. AGAIN EXPECT ANY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING INCLUDING CB
BUILDUPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHICH WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER THE RIDGES AS OLD OUTFLOW
AND PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS
KBLF/KLWB MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH VCSH AT KBCB/KROA.
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES CONVECTION TO FADE INTO VFR PRIOR TO ANY
FOG FORMATION. AGAIN APPEARS AREAS OF MVFR TO ISOLATED LIFR/IFR IN
FOG/STRATUS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS
AND WHERE ANY EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031100
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
700 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOG REMAINS QUITE PATCHY ACROSS
THE REGION AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHERE SEEING SPOTTY LIFR TO MVFR. AGAIN EXPECT ANY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING INCLUDING CB
BUILDUPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHICH WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER THE RIDGES AS OLD OUTFLOW
AND PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS
KBLF/KLWB MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH VCSH AT KBCB/KROA.
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES CONVECTION TO FADE INTO VFR PRIOR TO ANY
FOG FORMATION. AGAIN APPEARS AREAS OF MVFR TO ISOLATED LIFR/IFR IN
FOG/STRATUS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS
AND WHERE ANY EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031100
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
700 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOG REMAINS QUITE PATCHY ACROSS
THE REGION AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHERE SEEING SPOTTY LIFR TO MVFR. AGAIN EXPECT ANY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING INCLUDING CB
BUILDUPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHICH WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER THE RIDGES AS OLD OUTFLOW
AND PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS
KBLF/KLWB MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH VCSH AT KBCB/KROA.
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES CONVECTION TO FADE INTO VFR PRIOR TO ANY
FOG FORMATION. AGAIN APPEARS AREAS OF MVFR TO ISOLATED LIFR/IFR IN
FOG/STRATUS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS
AND WHERE ANY EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 031100
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
700 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOG REMAINS QUITE PATCHY ACROSS
THE REGION AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHERE SEEING SPOTTY LIFR TO MVFR. AGAIN EXPECT ANY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. THIS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING INCLUDING CB
BUILDUPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHICH WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER THE RIDGES AS OLD OUTFLOW
AND PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS
KBLF/KLWB MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH VCSH AT KBCB/KROA.
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES CONVECTION TO FADE INTO VFR PRIOR TO ANY
FOG FORMATION. AGAIN APPEARS AREAS OF MVFR TO ISOLATED LIFR/IFR IN
FOG/STRATUS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS
AND WHERE ANY EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN
THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030848
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
448 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 030848
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
448 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030848
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
448 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030848
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
448 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COMPLEX ARRAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....WITH AN
ANOMALOUS 590DM HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION TODAY...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT IS DESTINED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
VA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST AT MIDDAY...ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
MORE STABLE AREAS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY...BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SWING TO CONVECTION ON ALL OF THESE DAYS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...THERMODYNAMICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE QUITE NOTABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SOME FAIRLY ROBUST PULSE CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND LIS DROP TO AS LOW AS -6 TO -8 IN SOME AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE GFS. PWATS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 RANGE...SO THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
FORTUNATELY...FROM THAT STANDPOINT...IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
RECENTLY...SO RAINFALL...OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES...SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 80S
WEST...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
BEGIN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA/I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW NC AND SW VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A HOT...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAY AS NOTED ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY...AND THUS
READINGS WERE RAISED ON AVERAGE 3-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. MIN
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW/SHEAR/WEAKNESS ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE. AN UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S...BUT IS BEING DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS THE FLOW IS LARGELY ZONAL AND BLOCKED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH BY A NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THROUGH OUR
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY
DIURNAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...FOCUSED LARGELY TOWARD THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF/GFS REGARDING
POTENTIAL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SC/NC COAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR
NOT THIS MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH OUR CWA.
HAVE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR
CWA...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES WILL BE MOST NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO MINS...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
WILL START OUT OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL...BUT CREEP BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY
80S WEST TO NEAR 90 EAST...EXCEPT 70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 030735
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 030735
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030735
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030735
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH YET
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM 85H TEMPS. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY TO ELIMINATE ANY CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPCLY GIVEN LOWER 5H HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
AGAIN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY BLUE RIDGE VICINITY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND WHERE ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY TAKE
SHAPE. SPC WRF AGAIN SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN TSRA WITH FOCUS
ON RESIDUAL WEAK TROFFINESS SLIDING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS WITH MORE SHOTGUN FLAVOR FARTHER WEST AND A BIT
SLOWER TO INIT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE NCAR CAM PROGS
SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF WHICH WAS BEST YESTERDAY WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER
POP COVERAGE OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH PERHAPS A SWATH OF BEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW RIVER...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE
CONVECTION WAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LIMITED BY LITTLE
SHEAR BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNIFORM BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OR PULSE CLUSTERS LATE. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
LOOK TO TOP 90 IN THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS DRIER
OVER THE SE. OTRW STAYED A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GIVEN HIGHS
ABOVE GUIDANCE OF LATE.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FADE THIS EVENING BUT MAY TEND TO LINGER IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTH/EAST GIVEN APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE NW LATE. HOWEVER DID GO MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MORE FOG
AROUND ALTHOUGH COVERAGE QUITE DEPENDENT UPON EARLIER RAINFALL. MUGGY
LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 030509
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
109 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TIL MIDNIGHT FROM HALIFAX TO
YADKIN...BUT HAVE IT DRY OVERNIGHT. UPPER VORT NOW CENTERED OVER
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY ALLOWING MORE LIFT AHEAD OF IT INTO ERN
VA/NC. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WHICH MODELS TRY TO
TRACK SE TOWARD SE WV TOWARD MORNING...BUT FADE IT OUT BEFORE
THEN.

STILL EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT
LEAST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030509
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
109 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TIL MIDNIGHT FROM HALIFAX TO
YADKIN...BUT HAVE IT DRY OVERNIGHT. UPPER VORT NOW CENTERED OVER
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY ALLOWING MORE LIFT AHEAD OF IT INTO ERN
VA/NC. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WHICH MODELS TRY TO
TRACK SE TOWARD SE WV TOWARD MORNING...BUT FADE IT OUT BEFORE
THEN.

STILL EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT
LEAST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030509
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
109 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TIL MIDNIGHT FROM HALIFAX TO
YADKIN...BUT HAVE IT DRY OVERNIGHT. UPPER VORT NOW CENTERED OVER
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY ALLOWING MORE LIFT AHEAD OF IT INTO ERN
VA/NC. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WHICH MODELS TRY TO
TRACK SE TOWARD SE WV TOWARD MORNING...BUT FADE IT OUT BEFORE
THEN.

STILL EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT
LEAST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 030509
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
109 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TIL MIDNIGHT FROM HALIFAX TO
YADKIN...BUT HAVE IT DRY OVERNIGHT. UPPER VORT NOW CENTERED OVER
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY ALLOWING MORE LIFT AHEAD OF IT INTO ERN
VA/NC. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WHICH MODELS TRY TO
TRACK SE TOWARD SE WV TOWARD MORNING...BUT FADE IT OUT BEFORE
THEN.

STILL EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT
LEAST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH KLWB
LIKELY TO FALL INTO LIFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KBCB AND KLYH. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING FOG TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH ONLY
LIMITED MVFR COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AGAIN BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CU AND CB BUILD UPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS AS OLD OUTFLOW AND
PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. APPEARS KBLF/KLWB
MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION...AFTER 18Z/2PM WITH
VCSH AT KBCB. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL
BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT KBCB/KLWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 030154
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TIL MIDNIGHT FROM HALIFAX TO
YADKIN...BUT HAVE IT DRY OVERNIGHT. UPPER VORT NOW CENTERED OVER
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY ALLOWING MORE LIFT AHEAD OF IT INTO ERN
VA/NC. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WHICH MODELS TRY TO
TRACK SE TOWARD SE WV TOWARD MORNING...BUT FADE IT OUT BEFORE
THEN.

STILL EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT
LEAST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER WAVE OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST BY THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SMOKYS. ATTM...THE
TERMINALS IN LINE FOR AT LEAST VCSH THIS EVENING ARE LYH/DAN AND
LWB. RADAR SHOWS THE BETTER CONVECTION WITH MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING
THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG/EAST OF LYH/DAN. A
SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIES EAST OF CRW HEADING SE
TOWARD LWB...AND SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD 01Z...SO KEPT IT VCSH.

OVERNIGHT...THE RATHER HUMID AIRMASS WITH LESS CLOUDS WILL INDUCE
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICAL LWB/BCB LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE...THE FOG IF ANY FORMS WILL BE MVFR.

THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS...WITH
BLF/LWB MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. ATTM...HAVE THEM VCSH AFTER 18Z...AND CIGS
WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE THE LOW
LVL FLOW TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG
AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
WILL BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE
IS POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT BCB/LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 030154
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TIL MIDNIGHT FROM HALIFAX TO
YADKIN...BUT HAVE IT DRY OVERNIGHT. UPPER VORT NOW CENTERED OVER
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY ALLOWING MORE LIFT AHEAD OF IT INTO ERN
VA/NC. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WHICH MODELS TRY TO
TRACK SE TOWARD SE WV TOWARD MORNING...BUT FADE IT OUT BEFORE
THEN.

STILL EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT
LEAST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER WAVE OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST BY THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SMOKYS. ATTM...THE
TERMINALS IN LINE FOR AT LEAST VCSH THIS EVENING ARE LYH/DAN AND
LWB. RADAR SHOWS THE BETTER CONVECTION WITH MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING
THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG/EAST OF LYH/DAN. A
SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIES EAST OF CRW HEADING SE
TOWARD LWB...AND SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD 01Z...SO KEPT IT VCSH.

OVERNIGHT...THE RATHER HUMID AIRMASS WITH LESS CLOUDS WILL INDUCE
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICAL LWB/BCB LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE...THE FOG IF ANY FORMS WILL BE MVFR.

THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS...WITH
BLF/LWB MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. ATTM...HAVE THEM VCSH AFTER 18Z...AND CIGS
WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE THE LOW
LVL FLOW TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG
AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
WILL BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE
IS POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT BCB/LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 022338
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GETTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
AMHERST/BOTETOURT EAST TOWARD BUCKINGHAM AND APPOMATTOX. THIS
LINES UP WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORT OVER THE ALLEGHANYS. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO LOWER IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND INCREASE TOWARD LYH-FVX CORRIDOR AND NORTH.

SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL WV WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTY GOING TOWARD 8
PM...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH SUN GOING
DOWN.

PREVIOUS MID AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH MOST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COVERAGE WAS
GREATER AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...WE EXPECT A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTIONS. COVERAGE WILL START
TO DECREASE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. PATCHY RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT LEAST
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER WAVE OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST BY THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SMOKYS. ATTM...THE
TERMINALS IN LINE FOR AT LEAST VCSH THIS EVENING ARE LYH/DAN AND
LWB. RADAR SHOWS THE BETTER CONVECTION WITH MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING
THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG/EAST OF LYH/DAN. A
SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIES EAST OF CRW HEADING SE
TOWARD LWB...AND SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD 01Z...SO KEPT IT VCSH.

OVERNIGHT...THE RATHER HUMID AIRMASS WITH LESS CLOUDS WILL INDUCE
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICAL LWB/BCB LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE...THE FOG IF ANY FORMS WILL BE MVFR.

THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS...WITH
BLF/LWB MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. ATTM...HAVE THEM VCSH AFTER 18Z...AND CIGS
WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE THE LOW
LVL FLOW TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG
AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
WILL BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE
IS POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT BCB/LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 022338
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GETTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
AMHERST/BOTETOURT EAST TOWARD BUCKINGHAM AND APPOMATTOX. THIS
LINES UP WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORT OVER THE ALLEGHANYS. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO LOWER IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND INCREASE TOWARD LYH-FVX CORRIDOR AND NORTH.

SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL WV WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTY GOING TOWARD 8
PM...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH SUN GOING
DOWN.

PREVIOUS MID AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH MOST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COVERAGE WAS
GREATER AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...WE EXPECT A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTIONS. COVERAGE WILL START
TO DECREASE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. PATCHY RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT LEAST
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER WAVE OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST BY THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SMOKYS. ATTM...THE
TERMINALS IN LINE FOR AT LEAST VCSH THIS EVENING ARE LYH/DAN AND
LWB. RADAR SHOWS THE BETTER CONVECTION WITH MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING
THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG/EAST OF LYH/DAN. A
SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIES EAST OF CRW HEADING SE
TOWARD LWB...AND SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD 01Z...SO KEPT IT VCSH.

OVERNIGHT...THE RATHER HUMID AIRMASS WITH LESS CLOUDS WILL INDUCE
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICAL LWB/BCB LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE...THE FOG IF ANY FORMS WILL BE MVFR.

THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS...WITH
BLF/LWB MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. ATTM...HAVE THEM VCSH AFTER 18Z...AND CIGS
WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE THE LOW
LVL FLOW TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG
AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
WILL BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE
IS POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT BCB/LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 022338
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GETTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
AMHERST/BOTETOURT EAST TOWARD BUCKINGHAM AND APPOMATTOX. THIS
LINES UP WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORT OVER THE ALLEGHANYS. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO LOWER IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND INCREASE TOWARD LYH-FVX CORRIDOR AND NORTH.

SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL WV WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTY GOING TOWARD 8
PM...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH SUN GOING
DOWN.

PREVIOUS MID AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH MOST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COVERAGE WAS
GREATER AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...WE EXPECT A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTIONS. COVERAGE WILL START
TO DECREASE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. PATCHY RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT LEAST
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER WAVE OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST BY THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SMOKYS. ATTM...THE
TERMINALS IN LINE FOR AT LEAST VCSH THIS EVENING ARE LYH/DAN AND
LWB. RADAR SHOWS THE BETTER CONVECTION WITH MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING
THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG/EAST OF LYH/DAN. A
SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIES EAST OF CRW HEADING SE
TOWARD LWB...AND SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD 01Z...SO KEPT IT VCSH.

OVERNIGHT...THE RATHER HUMID AIRMASS WITH LESS CLOUDS WILL INDUCE
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICAL LWB/BCB LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE...THE FOG IF ANY FORMS WILL BE MVFR.

THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS...WITH
BLF/LWB MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. ATTM...HAVE THEM VCSH AFTER 18Z...AND CIGS
WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE THE LOW
LVL FLOW TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG
AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
WILL BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE
IS POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT BCB/LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 022210
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
610 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GETTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
AMHERST/BOTETOURT EAST TOWARD BUCKINGHAM AND APPOMATTOX. THIS
LINES UP WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORT OVER THE ALLEGHANYS. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO LOWER IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND INCREASE TOWARD LYH-FVX CORRIDOR AND NORTH.

SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL WV WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTY GOING TOWARD 8
PM...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH SUN GOING
DOWN.

PREVIOUS MID AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH MOST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COVERAGE WAS
GREATER AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...WE EXPECT A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTIONS. COVERAGE WILL START
TO DECREASE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. PATCHY RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT LEAST
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS
TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION. SO FAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
TO OUR NORTH...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND BRIEF AND ISOLATED SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
CONDITIONS UNDER ANY OF THE STRONGER RAIN SHAFTS OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
MIST AND FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...ANY SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY 14Z/10AM. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z/NOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HOT AND HUMID
DAYTIME AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND A FEW
STORMS...THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR A TREND TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS DRIER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 022210
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
610 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GETTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
AMHERST/BOTETOURT EAST TOWARD BUCKINGHAM AND APPOMATTOX. THIS
LINES UP WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORT OVER THE ALLEGHANYS. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO LOWER IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND INCREASE TOWARD LYH-FVX CORRIDOR AND NORTH.

SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL WV WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTY GOING TOWARD 8
PM...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH SUN GOING
DOWN.

PREVIOUS MID AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH MOST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COVERAGE WAS
GREATER AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...WE EXPECT A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTIONS. COVERAGE WILL START
TO DECREASE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. PATCHY RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT LEAST
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS
TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION. SO FAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
TO OUR NORTH...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND BRIEF AND ISOLATED SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
CONDITIONS UNDER ANY OF THE STRONGER RAIN SHAFTS OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
MIST AND FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...ANY SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY 14Z/10AM. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z/NOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HOT AND HUMID
DAYTIME AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND A FEW
STORMS...THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR A TREND TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS DRIER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021927
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH MOST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COVERAGE WAS
GREATER AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...WE EXPECT A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTIONS. COVERAGE WILL START
TO DECREASE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. PATCHY RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT LEAST
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS
TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION. SO FAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
TO OUR NORTH...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND BRIEF AND ISOLATED SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
CONDITIONS UNDER ANY OF THE STRONGER RAIN SHAFTS OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
MIST AND FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...ANY SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY 14Z/10AM. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z/NOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HOT AND HUMID
DAYTIME AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND A FEW
STORMS...THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR A TREND TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS DRIER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 021927
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH MOST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COVERAGE WAS
GREATER AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...WE EXPECT A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTIONS. COVERAGE WILL START
TO DECREASE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. PATCHY RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT LEAST
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS
TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION. SO FAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
TO OUR NORTH...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND BRIEF AND ISOLATED SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
CONDITIONS UNDER ANY OF THE STRONGER RAIN SHAFTS OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
MIST AND FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...ANY SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY 14Z/10AM. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z/NOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HOT AND HUMID
DAYTIME AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND A FEW
STORMS...THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR A TREND TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS DRIER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021927
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH MOST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COVERAGE WAS
GREATER AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...WE EXPECT A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTIONS. COVERAGE WILL START
TO DECREASE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. PATCHY RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT LEAST
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS
TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION. SO FAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
TO OUR NORTH...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND BRIEF AND ISOLATED SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
CONDITIONS UNDER ANY OF THE STRONGER RAIN SHAFTS OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
MIST AND FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...ANY SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY 14Z/10AM. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z/NOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HOT AND HUMID
DAYTIME AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND A FEW
STORMS...THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR A TREND TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS DRIER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 021927
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH MOST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COVERAGE WAS
GREATER AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...WE EXPECT A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTIONS. COVERAGE WILL START
TO DECREASE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. PATCHY RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT LEAST
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING
OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS
TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION. SO FAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
TO OUR NORTH...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND BRIEF AND ISOLATED SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
CONDITIONS UNDER ANY OF THE STRONGER RAIN SHAFTS OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
MIST AND FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...ANY SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY 14Z/10AM. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z/NOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HOT AND HUMID
DAYTIME AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND A FEW
STORMS...THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR A TREND TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS DRIER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CHANGE UPWARD BY AN AVERAGE OF
TWO TO THREE DEGREES OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ARE ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS.
WITH AT LEAST FOUR HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING AT A CONSERVATIVE
DEGREE PER HOUR...AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST HIGHS ARE WARRANTED.
ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ADJOINING FOOTHILLS FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. INITIATION COMMENCED
ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. OUR
FORECAST WILL NOW REFLECT THIS COVERAGE AS ONGOING. NO OTHER
NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 930 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. HOWEVER...BY 1100 AM...AT
VAST MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS FOG WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS ZERO.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AROUND
THE TOP THE HOUR..BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FADED. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS PAINTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH 17Z/1PM...AND THEN START
RAMPING UP THE COVERAGE AFTER THAT TIME. HAVE TWEAKED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS AND THE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS TREND. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS
TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION. SO FAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
TO OUR NORTH...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND BRIEF AND ISOLATED SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
CONDITIONS UNDER ANY OF THE STRONGER RAIN SHAFTS OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
MIST AND FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...ANY SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY 14Z/10AM. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z/NOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HOT AND HUMID
DAYTIME AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND A FEW
STORMS...THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR A TREND TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS DRIER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 021748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CHANGE UPWARD BY AN AVERAGE OF
TWO TO THREE DEGREES OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ARE ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS.
WITH AT LEAST FOUR HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING AT A CONSERVATIVE
DEGREE PER HOUR...AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST HIGHS ARE WARRANTED.
ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ADJOINING FOOTHILLS FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. INITIATION COMMENCED
ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. OUR
FORECAST WILL NOW REFLECT THIS COVERAGE AS ONGOING. NO OTHER
NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 930 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. HOWEVER...BY 1100 AM...AT
VAST MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS FOG WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS ZERO.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AROUND
THE TOP THE HOUR..BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FADED. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS PAINTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH 17Z/1PM...AND THEN START
RAMPING UP THE COVERAGE AFTER THAT TIME. HAVE TWEAKED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS AND THE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS TREND. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS
TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION. SO FAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
TO OUR NORTH...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND BRIEF AND ISOLATED SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
CONDITIONS UNDER ANY OF THE STRONGER RAIN SHAFTS OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
MIST AND FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...ANY SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY 14Z/10AM. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z/NOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HOT AND HUMID
DAYTIME AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND A FEW
STORMS...THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR A TREND TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS DRIER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021658
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CHANGE UPWARD BY AN AVERAGE OF
TWO TO THREE DEGREES OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ARE ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS.
WITH AT LEAST FOUR HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING AT A CONSERVATIVE
DEGREE PER HOUR...AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST HIGHS ARE WARRANTED.
ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ADJOINING FOOTHILLS FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. INITIATION COMMENCED
ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. OUR
FORECAST WILL NOW REFLECT THIS COVERAGE AS ONGOING. NO OTHER
NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 930 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. HOWEVER...BY 1100 AM...AT
VAST MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS FOG WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS ZERO.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AROUND
THE TOP THE HOUR..BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FADED. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS PAINTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH 17Z/1PM...AND THEN START
RAMPING UP THE COVERAGE AFTER THAT TIME. HAVE TWEAKED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS AND THE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS TREND. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB SEEING IFR OR
WORSE ATTM. EXPECT COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AS WELL
AROUND KLYH/KDAN AS WELL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
HEATING HELPS DISSIPATE ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW THE
MAIN ASPECT ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
AS OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19-20ZZ/3-4PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE
KEEPING MENTION OUT OF KDAN FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING WITH CIGS OF
4-6KFT WITH TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS AT LEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 021658
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CHANGE UPWARD BY AN AVERAGE OF
TWO TO THREE DEGREES OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ARE ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS.
WITH AT LEAST FOUR HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING AT A CONSERVATIVE
DEGREE PER HOUR...AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST HIGHS ARE WARRANTED.
ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ADJOINING FOOTHILLS FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. INITIATION COMMENCED
ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. OUR
FORECAST WILL NOW REFLECT THIS COVERAGE AS ONGOING. NO OTHER
NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 930 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. HOWEVER...BY 1100 AM...AT
VAST MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS FOG WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS ZERO.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AROUND
THE TOP THE HOUR..BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FADED. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS PAINTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH 17Z/1PM...AND THEN START
RAMPING UP THE COVERAGE AFTER THAT TIME. HAVE TWEAKED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS AND THE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS TREND. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB SEEING IFR OR
WORSE ATTM. EXPECT COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AS WELL
AROUND KLYH/KDAN AS WELL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
HEATING HELPS DISSIPATE ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW THE
MAIN ASPECT ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
AS OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19-20ZZ/3-4PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE
KEEPING MENTION OUT OF KDAN FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING WITH CIGS OF
4-6KFT WITH TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS AT LEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021658
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CHANGE UPWARD BY AN AVERAGE OF
TWO TO THREE DEGREES OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ARE ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS.
WITH AT LEAST FOUR HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING AT A CONSERVATIVE
DEGREE PER HOUR...AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST HIGHS ARE WARRANTED.
ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ADJOINING FOOTHILLS FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. INITIATION COMMENCED
ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. OUR
FORECAST WILL NOW REFLECT THIS COVERAGE AS ONGOING. NO OTHER
NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 930 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. HOWEVER...BY 1100 AM...AT
VAST MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS FOG WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS ZERO.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AROUND
THE TOP THE HOUR..BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FADED. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS PAINTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH 17Z/1PM...AND THEN START
RAMPING UP THE COVERAGE AFTER THAT TIME. HAVE TWEAKED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS AND THE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS TREND. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB SEEING IFR OR
WORSE ATTM. EXPECT COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AS WELL
AROUND KLYH/KDAN AS WELL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
HEATING HELPS DISSIPATE ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW THE
MAIN ASPECT ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
AS OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19-20ZZ/3-4PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE
KEEPING MENTION OUT OF KDAN FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING WITH CIGS OF
4-6KFT WITH TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS AT LEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 021658
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CHANGE UPWARD BY AN AVERAGE OF
TWO TO THREE DEGREES OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ARE ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS.
WITH AT LEAST FOUR HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING AT A CONSERVATIVE
DEGREE PER HOUR...AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST HIGHS ARE WARRANTED.
ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ADJOINING FOOTHILLS FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. INITIATION COMMENCED
ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. OUR
FORECAST WILL NOW REFLECT THIS COVERAGE AS ONGOING. NO OTHER
NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 930 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. HOWEVER...BY 1100 AM...AT
VAST MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS FOG WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS ZERO.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AROUND
THE TOP THE HOUR..BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FADED. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS PAINTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH 17Z/1PM...AND THEN START
RAMPING UP THE COVERAGE AFTER THAT TIME. HAVE TWEAKED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS AND THE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS TREND. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB SEEING IFR OR
WORSE ATTM. EXPECT COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AS WELL
AROUND KLYH/KDAN AS WELL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
HEATING HELPS DISSIPATE ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW THE
MAIN ASPECT ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
AS OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19-20ZZ/3-4PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE
KEEPING MENTION OUT OF KDAN FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING WITH CIGS OF
4-6KFT WITH TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS AT LEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021340
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. HOWEVER...BY 1100 AM...AT
VAST MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS FOG WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS ZERO.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AROUND
THE TOP THE HOUR..BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FADED. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS PAINTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH 17Z/1PM...AND THEN START
RAMPING UP THE COVERAGE AFTER THAT TIME. HAVE TWEAKED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS AND THE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS TREND. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB SEEING IFR OR
WORSE ATTM. EXPECT COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AS WELL
AROUND KLYH/KDAN AS WELL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
HEATING HELPS DISSIPATE ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW THE
MAIN ASPECT ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
AS OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19-20ZZ/3-4PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE
KEEPING MENTION OUT OF KDAN FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING WITH CIGS OF
4-6KFT WITH TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS AT LEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 021340
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. HOWEVER...BY 1100 AM...AT
VAST MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS FOG WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS ZERO.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AROUND
THE TOP THE HOUR..BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FADED. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS PAINTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH 17Z/1PM...AND THEN START
RAMPING UP THE COVERAGE AFTER THAT TIME. HAVE TWEAKED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS AND THE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS TREND. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB SEEING IFR OR
WORSE ATTM. EXPECT COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AS WELL
AROUND KLYH/KDAN AS WELL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
HEATING HELPS DISSIPATE ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW THE
MAIN ASPECT ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
AS OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19-20ZZ/3-4PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE
KEEPING MENTION OUT OF KDAN FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING WITH CIGS OF
4-6KFT WITH TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS AT LEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021340
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. HOWEVER...BY 1100 AM...AT
VAST MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS FOG WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS ZERO.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AROUND
THE TOP THE HOUR..BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FADED. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS PAINTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH 17Z/1PM...AND THEN START
RAMPING UP THE COVERAGE AFTER THAT TIME. HAVE TWEAKED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS AND THE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS TREND. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB SEEING IFR OR
WORSE ATTM. EXPECT COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AS WELL
AROUND KLYH/KDAN AS WELL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
HEATING HELPS DISSIPATE ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW THE
MAIN ASPECT ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
AS OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19-20ZZ/3-4PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE
KEEPING MENTION OUT OF KDAN FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING WITH CIGS OF
4-6KFT WITH TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS AT LEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 021340
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. HOWEVER...BY 1100 AM...AT
VAST MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS FOG WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS ZERO.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AROUND
THE TOP THE HOUR..BUT THESE HAVE SINCE FADED. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS PAINTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH 17Z/1PM...AND THEN START
RAMPING UP THE COVERAGE AFTER THAT TIME. HAVE TWEAKED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS AND THE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS TREND. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB SEEING IFR OR
WORSE ATTM. EXPECT COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AS WELL
AROUND KLYH/KDAN AS WELL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
HEATING HELPS DISSIPATE ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW THE
MAIN ASPECT ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
AS OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19-20ZZ/3-4PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE
KEEPING MENTION OUT OF KDAN FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING WITH CIGS OF
4-6KFT WITH TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS AT LEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021054
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
654 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB SEEING IFR OR
WORSE ATTM. EXPECT COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AS WELL
AROUND KLYH/KDAN AS WELL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
HEATING HELPS DISSIPATE ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW THE
MAIN ASPECT ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
AS OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19-20ZZ/3-4PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE
KEEPING MENTION OUT OF KDAN FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING WITH CIGS OF
4-6KFT WITH TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS AT LEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021054
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
654 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB SEEING IFR OR
WORSE ATTM. EXPECT COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AS WELL
AROUND KLYH/KDAN AS WELL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
HEATING HELPS DISSIPATE ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW THE
MAIN ASPECT ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
AS OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19-20ZZ/3-4PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE
KEEPING MENTION OUT OF KDAN FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING WITH CIGS OF
4-6KFT WITH TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS AT LEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 021054
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
654 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB SEEING IFR OR
WORSE ATTM. EXPECT COULD SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AS WELL
AROUND KLYH/KDAN AS WELL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
HEATING HELPS DISSIPATE ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW THE
MAIN ASPECT ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
AS OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19-20ZZ/3-4PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE
KEEPING MENTION OUT OF KDAN FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING WITH CIGS OF
4-6KFT WITH TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS AT LEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 020850
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
450 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...FOG THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN GIVEN LESS CLOUDS OF SEEING THE
VALLEYS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB DROP INTO LIFR/IFR FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ALSO SOME FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH-KDAN WHERE BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR POSSIBLE WHILE COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPOTTY AT KBLF WHERE
LIMITED TO JUST A VERY BRIEF INCLUSION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAWN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. THEN EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
FORCING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS
OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19Z/3PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE KEEPING
MENTION OUT OF KDAN.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 020850
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
450 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...FOG THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN GIVEN LESS CLOUDS OF SEEING THE
VALLEYS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB DROP INTO LIFR/IFR FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ALSO SOME FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH-KDAN WHERE BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR POSSIBLE WHILE COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPOTTY AT KBLF WHERE
LIMITED TO JUST A VERY BRIEF INCLUSION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAWN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. THEN EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
FORCING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS
OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19Z/3PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE KEEPING
MENTION OUT OF KDAN.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020850
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
450 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...FOG THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN GIVEN LESS CLOUDS OF SEEING THE
VALLEYS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB DROP INTO LIFR/IFR FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ALSO SOME FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH-KDAN WHERE BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR POSSIBLE WHILE COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPOTTY AT KBLF WHERE
LIMITED TO JUST A VERY BRIEF INCLUSION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAWN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. THEN EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
FORCING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS
OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19Z/3PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE KEEPING
MENTION OUT OF KDAN.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020850
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
450 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE IT
APPEARS IT IS DESTINED TO BECOME A WEAK CUTOFF THAT WILL
RETROGRADE/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL U.S. INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH BEST DYNAMICS...WHAT THEY ARE...HAVING
DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. REALLY CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN 30 POPS AT
BEST.

BY FRIDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UNDERNEATH THE MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE VERY WEAK...BUT A MARKED DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
NOTABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT...SO
EVEN WITH WEAK DYNAMICS...WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...30-40 PERCENT POPS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA...NEAR THE
I-77 CORRIDOR...INTO CENTRAL NC. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE READINGS ARE
AROUND 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO NEEDED TO NUDGE
UP MOST AREAS FROM 2-3 DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
AND INCREASING BROAD UPPER LOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
SOUTH PART OF THE U.S. OUR CWA WILL BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-77 SUNDAY...THEN CREEP FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. 460
CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT TOWARD THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT MAY BE SOME
TIME BEFORE IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR AREA. HENCE...SUMMER APPEARS
DESTINED TO HANG ON MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT PERHAPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-77. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTHWEST. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...FOG THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN GIVEN LESS CLOUDS OF SEEING THE
VALLEYS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB DROP INTO LIFR/IFR FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ALSO SOME FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH-KDAN WHERE BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR POSSIBLE WHILE COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPOTTY AT KBLF WHERE
LIMITED TO JUST A VERY BRIEF INCLUSION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAWN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. THEN EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
FORCING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS
OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19Z/3PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE KEEPING
MENTION OUT OF KDAN.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 020721
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
321 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...FOG THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN GIVEN LESS CLOUDS OF SEEING THE
VALLEYS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB DROP INTO LIFR/IFR FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ALSO SOME FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH-KDAN WHERE BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR POSSIBLE WHILE COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPOTTY AT KBLF WHERE
LIMITED TO JUST A VERY BRIEF INCLUSION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAWN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. THEN EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
FORCING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS
OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19Z/3PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE KEEPING
MENTION OUT OF KDAN.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 020721
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
321 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO PERSIST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 5H RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER LIFT
ESPCLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR EARLY ON AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE GIVEN OVERALL BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNDER
RATHER WARM 5H TEMPS. CURRENT SPC/RNK WRF SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
LATEST HRRR REMAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH SHRA/TSRA NORTH HALF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES PRODUCING LESS INCLUDING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROUND
KLYH FOR THE MOST PART. THEREFORE ALIGNED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SW. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE LATE.

OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY PC WITH MID DECK EARLY...THEN MORE CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST AND WELL INTO THE
80S ELSEWHERE PENDING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

IMPULSE PASSES THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN WAVES AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST CONVECTION TO FADE
BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING PER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS KEEPING SOME
LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY
WITH FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN SOME DROP
IN DEWPOINTS AND ESPCLY WHERE ANY COOLING EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS BUT
STILL MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...FOG THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN GIVEN LESS CLOUDS OF SEEING THE
VALLEYS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB DROP INTO LIFR/IFR FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ALSO SOME FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH-KDAN WHERE BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR POSSIBLE WHILE COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPOTTY AT KBLF WHERE
LIMITED TO JUST A VERY BRIEF INCLUSION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAWN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. THEN EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
FORCING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS
OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19Z/3PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE KEEPING
MENTION OUT OF KDAN.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020512
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
112 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOWERS HAVE FADED AND SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH TO MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. WILL MAINTAIN FOG LATE TONIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...

JUST A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
HIGHER THETA-E GRADIENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND WV/FAR SW VA. BEST
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES IN THE PIEDMONT. WE HAVE WEAK
IMPULSES STRETCHED ACROSS WV INTO VA...AIDING IN WEAK LIFT.
OVERALL...NOT IMPRESSED WITH THREAT PAST 9PM...SO I EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO FADE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NRN CWA...WITH SCATTERED
LOW/MID CLOUDS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MOST
OCCURRING WITH THE SKY COVER. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
SKY COVER CAN INFLUENCE FOG FORMATION. WILL LOOK AT THAT LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED MID AFTERNOON...


STARTING SEPTEMBER OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S OVER
THE PIEDMONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT HAVE HELD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WE CAN EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO FADE TOWARD SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO FADE AS WELL...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING THE NIGHT.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO THIN BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.

ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY
INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...FOG THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN GIVEN LESS CLOUDS OF SEEING THE
VALLEYS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB DROP INTO LIFR/IFR FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ALSO SOME FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH-KDAN WHERE BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR POSSIBLE WHILE COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPOTTY AT KBLF WHERE
LIMITED TO JUST A VERY BRIEF INCLUSION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAWN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. THEN EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
FORCING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS
OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19Z/3PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE KEEPING
MENTION OUT OF KDAN.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 020512
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
112 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOWERS HAVE FADED AND SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH TO MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. WILL MAINTAIN FOG LATE TONIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...

JUST A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
HIGHER THETA-E GRADIENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND WV/FAR SW VA. BEST
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES IN THE PIEDMONT. WE HAVE WEAK
IMPULSES STRETCHED ACROSS WV INTO VA...AIDING IN WEAK LIFT.
OVERALL...NOT IMPRESSED WITH THREAT PAST 9PM...SO I EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO FADE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NRN CWA...WITH SCATTERED
LOW/MID CLOUDS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MOST
OCCURRING WITH THE SKY COVER. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
SKY COVER CAN INFLUENCE FOG FORMATION. WILL LOOK AT THAT LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED MID AFTERNOON...


STARTING SEPTEMBER OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S OVER
THE PIEDMONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT HAVE HELD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WE CAN EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO FADE TOWARD SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO FADE AS WELL...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING THE NIGHT.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO THIN BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.

ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY
INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...FOG THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN GIVEN LESS CLOUDS OF SEEING THE
VALLEYS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB DROP INTO LIFR/IFR FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ALSO SOME FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH-KDAN WHERE BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR POSSIBLE WHILE COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPOTTY AT KBLF WHERE
LIMITED TO JUST A VERY BRIEF INCLUSION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAWN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. THEN EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
FORCING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS
OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19Z/3PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE KEEPING
MENTION OUT OF KDAN.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020512
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
112 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOWERS HAVE FADED AND SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH TO MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. WILL MAINTAIN FOG LATE TONIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...

JUST A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
HIGHER THETA-E GRADIENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND WV/FAR SW VA. BEST
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES IN THE PIEDMONT. WE HAVE WEAK
IMPULSES STRETCHED ACROSS WV INTO VA...AIDING IN WEAK LIFT.
OVERALL...NOT IMPRESSED WITH THREAT PAST 9PM...SO I EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO FADE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NRN CWA...WITH SCATTERED
LOW/MID CLOUDS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MOST
OCCURRING WITH THE SKY COVER. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
SKY COVER CAN INFLUENCE FOG FORMATION. WILL LOOK AT THAT LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED MID AFTERNOON...


STARTING SEPTEMBER OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S OVER
THE PIEDMONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT HAVE HELD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WE CAN EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO FADE TOWARD SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO FADE AS WELL...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING THE NIGHT.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO THIN BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.

ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY
INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...FOG THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN GIVEN LESS CLOUDS OF SEEING THE
VALLEYS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB DROP INTO LIFR/IFR FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ALSO SOME FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH-KDAN WHERE BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR POSSIBLE WHILE COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPOTTY AT KBLF WHERE
LIMITED TO JUST A VERY BRIEF INCLUSION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAWN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. THEN EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
FORCING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS
OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19Z/3PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE KEEPING
MENTION OUT OF KDAN.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 020512
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
112 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF WEEK BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOWERS HAVE FADED AND SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH TO MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. WILL MAINTAIN FOG LATE TONIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...

JUST A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
HIGHER THETA-E GRADIENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND WV/FAR SW VA. BEST
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES IN THE PIEDMONT. WE HAVE WEAK
IMPULSES STRETCHED ACROSS WV INTO VA...AIDING IN WEAK LIFT.
OVERALL...NOT IMPRESSED WITH THREAT PAST 9PM...SO I EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO FADE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NRN CWA...WITH SCATTERED
LOW/MID CLOUDS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MOST
OCCURRING WITH THE SKY COVER. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
SKY COVER CAN INFLUENCE FOG FORMATION. WILL LOOK AT THAT LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED MID AFTERNOON...


STARTING SEPTEMBER OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S OVER
THE PIEDMONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT HAVE HELD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WE CAN EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO FADE TOWARD SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO FADE AS WELL...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING THE NIGHT.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO THIN BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.

ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY
INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...FOG THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN GIVEN LESS CLOUDS OF SEEING THE
VALLEYS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB DROP INTO LIFR/IFR FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ALSO SOME FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH-KDAN WHERE BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR POSSIBLE WHILE COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPOTTY AT KBLF WHERE
LIMITED TO JUST A VERY BRIEF INCLUSION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAWN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. THEN EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
FORCING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS
OF NOW WILL KEEP THE GOING VCTS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB AFTER
19Z/3PM...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY GOING WITH A VCSH AT KLWB-KBLF WHILE KEEPING
MENTION OUT OF KDAN.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1152 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...KEEPING US
IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOWERS HAVE FADED AND SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH TO MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. WILL MAINTAIN FOG LATE TONIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...

JUST A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
HIGHER THETA-E GRADIENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND WV/FAR SW VA. BEST
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES IN THE PIEDMONT. WE HAVE WEAK
IMPULSES STRETCHED ACROSS WV INTO VA...AIDING IN WEAK LIFT.
OVERALL...NOT IMPRESSED WITH THREAT PAST 9PM...SO I EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO FADE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NRN CWA...WITH SCATTERED
LOW/MID CLOUDS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MOST
OCCURRING WITH THE SKY COVER. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
SKY COVER CAN INFLUENCE FOG FORMATION. WILL LOOK AT THAT LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED MID AFTERNOON...


STARTING SEPTEMBER OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S OVER
THE PIEDMONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT HAVE HELD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WE CAN EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO FADE TOWARD SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO FADE AS WELL...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING THE NIGHT.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO THIN BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.

ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY
INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE VCSH AT ROA/LYH PER RADAR AT 2315Z. THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL
FADE TOWARD 10 PM/02Z..THEN SKIES WILL STAY SCT-BKN OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SOME FOG AT LWB/BCB...AND MORE TEMPO AT
LYH/DAN. IFR/LIFR FOG AT LWB WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST...BUT IF
THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD REMAINS THICK ENOUGH THEN IT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER
THIS EVENING TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WED AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS OF NOW WILL ALLOW
FOR VCTS AT ROA/LYH AND BCB AFTER 19Z...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL
BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHEAST...SO LEFT IT OUT OF BLF/LWB AND
DAN FOR NOW.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1152 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...KEEPING US
IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOWERS HAVE FADED AND SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH TO MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. WILL MAINTAIN FOG LATE TONIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...

JUST A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
HIGHER THETA-E GRADIENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND WV/FAR SW VA. BEST
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES IN THE PIEDMONT. WE HAVE WEAK
IMPULSES STRETCHED ACROSS WV INTO VA...AIDING IN WEAK LIFT.
OVERALL...NOT IMPRESSED WITH THREAT PAST 9PM...SO I EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO FADE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NRN CWA...WITH SCATTERED
LOW/MID CLOUDS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MOST
OCCURRING WITH THE SKY COVER. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
SKY COVER CAN INFLUENCE FOG FORMATION. WILL LOOK AT THAT LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED MID AFTERNOON...


STARTING SEPTEMBER OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S OVER
THE PIEDMONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT HAVE HELD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WE CAN EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO FADE TOWARD SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO FADE AS WELL...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING THE NIGHT.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO THIN BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.

ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY
INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE VCSH AT ROA/LYH PER RADAR AT 2315Z. THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL
FADE TOWARD 10 PM/02Z..THEN SKIES WILL STAY SCT-BKN OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SOME FOG AT LWB/BCB...AND MORE TEMPO AT
LYH/DAN. IFR/LIFR FOG AT LWB WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST...BUT IF
THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD REMAINS THICK ENOUGH THEN IT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER
THIS EVENING TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WED AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS OF NOW WILL ALLOW
FOR VCTS AT ROA/LYH AND BCB AFTER 19Z...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL
BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHEAST...SO LEFT IT OUT OF BLF/LWB AND
DAN FOR NOW.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 012350
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...KEEPING US
IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

JUST A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
HIGHER THETA-E GRADIENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND WV/FAR SW VA. BEST
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES IN THE PIEDMONT. WE HAVE WEAK
IMPULSES STRETCHED ACROSS WV INTO VA...AIDING IN WEAK LIFT.
OVERALL...NOT IMPRESSED WITH THREAT PAST 9PM...SO I EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO FADE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NRN CWA...WITH SCATTERED
LOW/MID CLOUDS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MOST
OCCURRING WITH THE SKY COVER. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
SKY COVER CAN INFLUENCE FOG FORMATION. WILL LOOK AT THAT LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED MID AFTERNOON...


STARTING SEPTEMBER OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S OVER
THE PIEDMONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT HAVE HELD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WE CAN EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO FADE TOWARD SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO FADE AS WELL...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING THE NIGHT.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO THIN BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.

ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY
INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE VCSH AT ROA/LYH PER RADAR AT 2315Z. THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL
FADE TOWARD 10 PM/02Z..THEN SKIES WILL STAY SCT-BKN OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SOME FOG AT LWB/BCB...AND MORE TEMPO AT
LYH/DAN. IFR/LIFR FOG AT LWB WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST...BUT IF
THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD REMAINS THICK ENOUGH THEN IT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER
THIS EVENING TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WED AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS OF NOW WILL ALLOW
FOR VCTS AT ROA/LYH AND BCB AFTER 19Z...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL
BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHEAST...SO LEFT IT OUT OF BLF/LWB AND
DAN FOR NOW.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 012350
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...KEEPING US
IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

JUST A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
HIGHER THETA-E GRADIENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND WV/FAR SW VA. BEST
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES IN THE PIEDMONT. WE HAVE WEAK
IMPULSES STRETCHED ACROSS WV INTO VA...AIDING IN WEAK LIFT.
OVERALL...NOT IMPRESSED WITH THREAT PAST 9PM...SO I EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO FADE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NRN CWA...WITH SCATTERED
LOW/MID CLOUDS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MOST
OCCURRING WITH THE SKY COVER. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
SKY COVER CAN INFLUENCE FOG FORMATION. WILL LOOK AT THAT LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED MID AFTERNOON...


STARTING SEPTEMBER OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S OVER
THE PIEDMONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT HAVE HELD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WE CAN EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO FADE TOWARD SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO FADE AS WELL...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING THE NIGHT.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO THIN BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.

ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY
INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE VCSH AT ROA/LYH PER RADAR AT 2315Z. THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL
FADE TOWARD 10 PM/02Z..THEN SKIES WILL STAY SCT-BKN OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SOME FOG AT LWB/BCB...AND MORE TEMPO AT
LYH/DAN. IFR/LIFR FOG AT LWB WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST...BUT IF
THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD REMAINS THICK ENOUGH THEN IT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER
THIS EVENING TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WED AFTERNOON WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AS OF NOW WILL ALLOW
FOR VCTS AT ROA/LYH AND BCB AFTER 19Z...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL
BE LESS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHEAST...SO LEFT IT OUT OF BLF/LWB AND
DAN FOR NOW.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS OF 4-6KFT WITH
TCU AND CB IN THE AFTERNOON.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 012003
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...KEEPING US
IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING SEPTEMBER OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S OVER
THE PIEDMONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT HAVE HELD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WE CAN EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO FADE TOWARD SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO FADE AS WELL...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING THE NIGHT.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO THIN BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.

ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY
INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A CU FIELD...
SCT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SCT TO BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS
HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG A KLWB TO KHSP LINE...WHICH ARE SLOW MOVING
AND PRODUCING LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE RIDGES OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SMALL AND HAVE LIMITED
IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY BENEATH...BUT WILL MOVE SLOWLY...WHICH MAY
CAUSE THEM TO LINGER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...AND THEREFORE ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. CONVECTION WILL
FADE TOWARD SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP...WITH VISIBILITIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION FALLING INTO THE 3SM TO 5SM
RANGE...AND AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN SOME OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
CEILINGS MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 02/14Z...AND ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS
DURING MID AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...SO CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 012003
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...KEEPING US
IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING SEPTEMBER OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S OVER
THE PIEDMONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT HAVE HELD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WE CAN EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO FADE TOWARD SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO FADE AS WELL...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING THE NIGHT.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO THIN BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.

ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY
INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A CU FIELD...
SCT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SCT TO BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS
HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG A KLWB TO KHSP LINE...WHICH ARE SLOW MOVING
AND PRODUCING LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE RIDGES OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SMALL AND HAVE LIMITED
IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY BENEATH...BUT WILL MOVE SLOWLY...WHICH MAY
CAUSE THEM TO LINGER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...AND THEREFORE ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. CONVECTION WILL
FADE TOWARD SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP...WITH VISIBILITIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION FALLING INTO THE 3SM TO 5SM
RANGE...AND AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN SOME OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
CEILINGS MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 02/14Z...AND ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS
DURING MID AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...SO CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 012003
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...KEEPING US
IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING SEPTEMBER OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S OVER
THE PIEDMONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT HAVE HELD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WE CAN EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO FADE TOWARD SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO FADE AS WELL...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING THE NIGHT.

WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO THIN BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.

ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY
INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE GFS MOVES THE OHIO SHORT WAVE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/SREF. GIVEN
THE LACK OF A KICKER FOR THIS VORT MAX...THE SLOWER GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BUT EVEN ON THIS SLOWER TRACK THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA BUT
STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LIFT THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH TO EAST.
THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LOW
LEVELS MAY ALSO EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 594DM ACCORDING TO THE
00Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT ANY REMNANTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WASH OUT AND BY SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED
AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20...MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS.

A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ECMWF WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR
ABOVE 850MB. BELOW 850 MB THE DRIER AIR REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A CU FIELD...
SCT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SCT TO BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS
HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG A KLWB TO KHSP LINE...WHICH ARE SLOW MOVING
AND PRODUCING LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE RIDGES OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SMALL AND HAVE LIMITED
IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY BENEATH...BUT WILL MOVE SLOWLY...WHICH MAY
CAUSE THEM TO LINGER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...AND THEREFORE ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. CONVECTION WILL
FADE TOWARD SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP...WITH VISIBILITIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION FALLING INTO THE 3SM TO 5SM
RANGE...AND AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN SOME OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
CEILINGS MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 02/14Z...AND ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS
DURING MID AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...SO CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011826
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
226 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...KEEPING US
IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE...BASICALLY
TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS TO PROLONG
THE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE GREENBRIER RIVER IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH 11 AM. APPEARS THAT...WITH THE BEGINNING OF
SEPTEMBER HERE...WE ARE INTO THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE LOWER SUN
ANGLES WILL ALLOW FOG TO LINGER LONGER INTO THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK.

AS OF 223 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE/ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAINLY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OUT
EAST AND WEAK NW TRAJECTORIES OVER THE WEST. MODELS ALSO INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER SURFACE-85H THETA-E OVER THE WEST/SW AND IN THE FAR
NW LATER ON. HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS REMAIN WITH AN OVERALL DISORGANIZED
SHOTGUN PATTERN TO SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY PER STRONG
HEATING AND LACK OF MUCH CAP ALOFT. THEREFORE RUNNING WITH OVERALL
SLIGHT POPS MAINLY MOUNTAINS WITH RIBBONS OF MORE CHANCE NATURE
COVERAGE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES IN A FEW SPOTS. WILL BE ON THE HOT
SIDE TO START SEPTEMBER GIVEN A BIT MORE SUN THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
LIGHT FLOW. THIS COULD PUSH HIGHS ABOVE 90 SE AND WELL INTO THE 80S
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEAK NW FLOW MAY TAKE A FEW SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA JUST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FADING BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SUPPORT THINK MOST ABOUT GONE AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE OPENING UPPER
WAVE SLIPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND HELPS LOWER 5H
HEIGHTS UNDER STRONG SURFACE RIDGING. THIS SYSTEM COULD SPARK A BAND OR
TWO OF SHOWERS MAINLY NW LATE BUT GIVEN LACK OF MUCH LIFT AFTER LOSS OF
HEATING CUT BACK TO MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY NW.
HOWEVER THIS FEATURE MAY BRING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP LOW TEMPS UP A BIT
MORE SO APPEARS MOSTLY UNIFORM MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY DIFFUSE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH WEAK...SMALL CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL
DICTATE THE WEATHER. WE BEGIN WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE NATION SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. UNDERLYING THIS BROAD UPPER RIDGE ARE SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE NC COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO TRACK INTO THE
REGION DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE NEAR THE
I-64 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...20-30 POPS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.

FOR THURSDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS OR EASTERN TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
RIDGE BECOMES VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH 588DM
HEIGHTS EVEN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALL IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENING AND RIDGING ALOFT...CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. BEST FOCUS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN 30 POPS
ANYWHERE...MOSTLY 20 POPS.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONG 1030MB HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH THE STRONG/HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE. 590DM HEIGHTS ARE NOTED EVEN NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND...THE MID-
WEEK WEAK UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WHICH
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED DEPENDING
ON ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR OUR REGION AT THIS
POINT IS A HEALTHY BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THAT WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BY
SATURDAY. A MARKED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL REPRESENT SLIGHT COOLING AND MODEST
DRYING. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 5 DEGREES FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPS
AND NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIN TEMPS. MOST MODELS WERE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...ESPECIALLY
SUN-MON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. THE MID-WEEK WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF
IN THE AL/GA/SC REGION. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN
THE 593DM RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY WILL BE BEST IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT. CONVECTION CHANCES SUN-
MON WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE CWA NEAR THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND STALLED BACKDOOR FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
PERIOD THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND INCREASING NORTHEAST-EAST
MARITIME FLOW. DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE LESS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARMER AND
MORE HUMID GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE. THE COOLING WILL
BE MOST NOTABLE IN MAX TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE
MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A CU FIELD...
SCT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SCT TO BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS
HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG A KLWB TO KHSP LINE...WHICH ARE SLOW MOVING
AND PRODUCING LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE RIDGES OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SMALL AND HAVE LIMITED
IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY BENEATH...BUT WILL MOVE SLOWLY...WHICH MAY
CAUSE THEM TO LINGER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...AND THEREFORE ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. CONVECTION WILL
FADE TOWARD SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP...WITH VISIBILITIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION FALLING INTO THE 3SM TO 5SM
RANGE...AND AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN SOME OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
CEILINGS MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 02/14Z...AND ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS
DURING MID AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...SO CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011826
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
226 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...KEEPING US
IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE...BASICALLY
TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS TO PROLONG
THE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE GREENBRIER RIVER IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH 11 AM. APPEARS THAT...WITH THE BEGINNING OF
SEPTEMBER HERE...WE ARE INTO THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE LOWER SUN
ANGLES WILL ALLOW FOG TO LINGER LONGER INTO THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK.

AS OF 223 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE/ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAINLY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OUT
EAST AND WEAK NW TRAJECTORIES OVER THE WEST. MODELS ALSO INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER SURFACE-85H THETA-E OVER THE WEST/SW AND IN THE FAR
NW LATER ON. HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS REMAIN WITH AN OVERALL DISORGANIZED
SHOTGUN PATTERN TO SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY PER STRONG
HEATING AND LACK OF MUCH CAP ALOFT. THEREFORE RUNNING WITH OVERALL
SLIGHT POPS MAINLY MOUNTAINS WITH RIBBONS OF MORE CHANCE NATURE
COVERAGE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES IN A FEW SPOTS. WILL BE ON THE HOT
SIDE TO START SEPTEMBER GIVEN A BIT MORE SUN THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
LIGHT FLOW. THIS COULD PUSH HIGHS ABOVE 90 SE AND WELL INTO THE 80S
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEAK NW FLOW MAY TAKE A FEW SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA JUST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FADING BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SUPPORT THINK MOST ABOUT GONE AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE OPENING UPPER
WAVE SLIPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND HELPS LOWER 5H
HEIGHTS UNDER STRONG SURFACE RIDGING. THIS SYSTEM COULD SPARK A BAND OR
TWO OF SHOWERS MAINLY NW LATE BUT GIVEN LACK OF MUCH LIFT AFTER LOSS OF
HEATING CUT BACK TO MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY NW.
HOWEVER THIS FEATURE MAY BRING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP LOW TEMPS UP A BIT
MORE SO APPEARS MOSTLY UNIFORM MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY DIFFUSE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH WEAK...SMALL CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL
DICTATE THE WEATHER. WE BEGIN WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE NATION SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. UNDERLYING THIS BROAD UPPER RIDGE ARE SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE NC COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO TRACK INTO THE
REGION DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE NEAR THE
I-64 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...20-30 POPS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.

FOR THURSDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS OR EASTERN TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
RIDGE BECOMES VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH 588DM
HEIGHTS EVEN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALL IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENING AND RIDGING ALOFT...CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. BEST FOCUS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN 30 POPS
ANYWHERE...MOSTLY 20 POPS.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONG 1030MB HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH THE STRONG/HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE. 590DM HEIGHTS ARE NOTED EVEN NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND...THE MID-
WEEK WEAK UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WHICH
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED DEPENDING
ON ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR OUR REGION AT THIS
POINT IS A HEALTHY BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THAT WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BY
SATURDAY. A MARKED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL REPRESENT SLIGHT COOLING AND MODEST
DRYING. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 5 DEGREES FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPS
AND NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIN TEMPS. MOST MODELS WERE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...ESPECIALLY
SUN-MON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. THE MID-WEEK WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF
IN THE AL/GA/SC REGION. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN
THE 593DM RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY WILL BE BEST IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT. CONVECTION CHANCES SUN-
MON WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE CWA NEAR THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND STALLED BACKDOOR FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
PERIOD THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND INCREASING NORTHEAST-EAST
MARITIME FLOW. DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE LESS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARMER AND
MORE HUMID GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE. THE COOLING WILL
BE MOST NOTABLE IN MAX TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE
MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A CU FIELD...
SCT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SCT TO BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS
HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG A KLWB TO KHSP LINE...WHICH ARE SLOW MOVING
AND PRODUCING LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE RIDGES OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SMALL AND HAVE LIMITED
IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY BENEATH...BUT WILL MOVE SLOWLY...WHICH MAY
CAUSE THEM TO LINGER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...AND THEREFORE ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. CONVECTION WILL
FADE TOWARD SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP...WITH VISIBILITIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION FALLING INTO THE 3SM TO 5SM
RANGE...AND AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN SOME OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
CEILINGS MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 02/14Z...AND ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS
DURING MID AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...SO CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011826
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
226 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...KEEPING US
IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE...BASICALLY
TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS TO PROLONG
THE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE GREENBRIER RIVER IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH 11 AM. APPEARS THAT...WITH THE BEGINNING OF
SEPTEMBER HERE...WE ARE INTO THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE LOWER SUN
ANGLES WILL ALLOW FOG TO LINGER LONGER INTO THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK.

AS OF 223 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE/ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAINLY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OUT
EAST AND WEAK NW TRAJECTORIES OVER THE WEST. MODELS ALSO INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER SURFACE-85H THETA-E OVER THE WEST/SW AND IN THE FAR
NW LATER ON. HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS REMAIN WITH AN OVERALL DISORGANIZED
SHOTGUN PATTERN TO SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY PER STRONG
HEATING AND LACK OF MUCH CAP ALOFT. THEREFORE RUNNING WITH OVERALL
SLIGHT POPS MAINLY MOUNTAINS WITH RIBBONS OF MORE CHANCE NATURE
COVERAGE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES IN A FEW SPOTS. WILL BE ON THE HOT
SIDE TO START SEPTEMBER GIVEN A BIT MORE SUN THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
LIGHT FLOW. THIS COULD PUSH HIGHS ABOVE 90 SE AND WELL INTO THE 80S
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEAK NW FLOW MAY TAKE A FEW SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA JUST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FADING BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SUPPORT THINK MOST ABOUT GONE AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE OPENING UPPER
WAVE SLIPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND HELPS LOWER 5H
HEIGHTS UNDER STRONG SURFACE RIDGING. THIS SYSTEM COULD SPARK A BAND OR
TWO OF SHOWERS MAINLY NW LATE BUT GIVEN LACK OF MUCH LIFT AFTER LOSS OF
HEATING CUT BACK TO MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY NW.
HOWEVER THIS FEATURE MAY BRING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP LOW TEMPS UP A BIT
MORE SO APPEARS MOSTLY UNIFORM MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY DIFFUSE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH WEAK...SMALL CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL
DICTATE THE WEATHER. WE BEGIN WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE NATION SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. UNDERLYING THIS BROAD UPPER RIDGE ARE SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE NC COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO TRACK INTO THE
REGION DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE NEAR THE
I-64 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...20-30 POPS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.

FOR THURSDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS OR EASTERN TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
RIDGE BECOMES VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH 588DM
HEIGHTS EVEN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALL IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENING AND RIDGING ALOFT...CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. BEST FOCUS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN 30 POPS
ANYWHERE...MOSTLY 20 POPS.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONG 1030MB HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH THE STRONG/HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE. 590DM HEIGHTS ARE NOTED EVEN NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND...THE MID-
WEEK WEAK UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WHICH
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED DEPENDING
ON ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR OUR REGION AT THIS
POINT IS A HEALTHY BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THAT WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BY
SATURDAY. A MARKED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL REPRESENT SLIGHT COOLING AND MODEST
DRYING. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 5 DEGREES FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPS
AND NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIN TEMPS. MOST MODELS WERE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...ESPECIALLY
SUN-MON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. THE MID-WEEK WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF
IN THE AL/GA/SC REGION. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN
THE 593DM RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY WILL BE BEST IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT. CONVECTION CHANCES SUN-
MON WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE CWA NEAR THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND STALLED BACKDOOR FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
PERIOD THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND INCREASING NORTHEAST-EAST
MARITIME FLOW. DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE LESS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARMER AND
MORE HUMID GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE. THE COOLING WILL
BE MOST NOTABLE IN MAX TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE
MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A CU FIELD...
SCT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SCT TO BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS
HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG A KLWB TO KHSP LINE...WHICH ARE SLOW MOVING
AND PRODUCING LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE RIDGES OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SMALL AND HAVE LIMITED
IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY BENEATH...BUT WILL MOVE SLOWLY...WHICH MAY
CAUSE THEM TO LINGER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...AND THEREFORE ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. CONVECTION WILL
FADE TOWARD SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP...WITH VISIBILITIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION FALLING INTO THE 3SM TO 5SM
RANGE...AND AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN SOME OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
CEILINGS MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 02/14Z...AND ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS
DURING MID AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...SO CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR
CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...





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