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000
FXUS61 KRNK 250755
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CHILLY LATE OCTOBER MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST A GOOD BET IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A FEW PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...NO CHANGES TO
THE FROST ADVISORY. TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE
GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR/PC EAST. WINDS
WILL STAY UP RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS...FROM THE MID 40S
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED DURING THE
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
MORNING...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
MORESO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS...AND WARMING
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.


THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS
SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE FORECAST REGION
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW
DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MODELS AREA SIMILAR IN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
AIRCRAFT PARKED OUTDOORS MAY HAVE A FINE COATING ON THEIR SURFACES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES (BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL
REMAIN VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PW
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 250538
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
138 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT SATURDAY...

COLDER TEMPS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS ALREADY AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS
DOWN IN TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. COVERAGE OF FROST MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE...BUT THE COUNTIES ALREADY IN THE FROST ADVISORY ARE
COVERED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FROST OVER SMYTH COUNTY VA INTO SRN
WV.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL
END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS
WILL BE THE LAST FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS
TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE
RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST
WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE
EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES
TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM
FRONT.

DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS
BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON
STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER
AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
AIRCRAFT PARKED OUTDOORS MAY HAVE A FINE COATING ON THEIR SURFACES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES (BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL
REMAIN VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 250133
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
933 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT FRIDAY...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IR SAT SHOWS SOME SCT HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA IS
CLEAR. AS EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DROP OFF AND TEMPS
ARE FALLING QUICKLY. NO CHANGES TO THE FROST ADVISORY WHICH GOES
INTO EFFECT AT 2AM/06Z FOR SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
TODAY...WILL PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...MOVING TO
THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FROST TO FORM IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM...BUT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS WILL END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FROST
ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS
TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE
RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST
WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE
EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES
TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM
FRONT.

DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS
BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON
STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER
AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
AIRCRAFT PARKED OUTDOORS MAY HAVE A FINE COATING ON THEIR SURFACES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES (BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL
REMAIN VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 242325
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
TODAY...WILL PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...MOVING TO
THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FROST TO FORM IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM...BUT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS WILL END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FROST
ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS
TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE
RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST
WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE
EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES
TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM
FRONT.

DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS
BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON
STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER
AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
AIRCRAFT PARKED OUTDOORS MAY HAVE A FINE COATING ON THEIR SURFACES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES (BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL
REMAIN VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241953
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
TODAY...WILL PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...MOVING TO
THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FROST TO FORM IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM...BUT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS WILL END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FROST
ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS
TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE
RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST
WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE
EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES
TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM
FRONT.

DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS
BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON
STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER
AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER 10KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES BECOME CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT BLF
AND LWB...NONE ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG SATURDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY 10A. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES
(BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL REMAIN
VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241953
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
TODAY...WILL PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...MOVING TO
THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FROST TO FORM IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM...BUT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS WILL END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FROST
ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS
TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE
RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST
WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE
EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES
TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM
FRONT.

DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS
BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON
STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER
AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER 10KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES BECOME CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT BLF
AND LWB...NONE ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG SATURDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY 10A. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES
(BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL REMAIN
VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241709
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
109 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE THICKER CIRRUS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES. THINNER AND HOLES IN THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.


AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN OFF THE SC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC. WE STAY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY
ISSUE BEING A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE MTNS...AND FROST
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST WV BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND LEANING TOWARD THE NAM/GFS MOS...WILL SEE PATCHY
FROST OVER THE MTN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL
POTENTIAL IS THERE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH SUNSHINE DIMMED BY
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MTNS TO
LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
STRATOCU BANKED UP OVER THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM MID 30S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS AS WELL AS PLACES LIKE ROANOKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. WILL START THE DAY WILL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS A
CLIPPER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHOT OF STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL
LAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...MAKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ARE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. COMBINE THAT
WILL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND EXPECT
MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT
CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO
THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER 10KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES BECOME CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT BLF
AND LWB...NONE ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG SATURDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY 10A. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES
(BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL REMAIN
VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241531
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1131 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE THICKER CIRRUS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES. THINNER AND HOLES IN THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.


AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN OFF THE SC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC. WE STAY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY
ISSUE BEING A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE MTNS...AND FROST
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST WV BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND LEANING TOWARD THE NAM/GFS MOS...WILL SEE PATCHY
FROST OVER THE MTN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL
POTENTIAL IS THERE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH SUNSHINE DIMMED BY
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MTNS TO
LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
STRATOCU BANKED UP OVER THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM MID 30S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS AS WELL AS PLACES LIKE ROANOKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. WILL START THE DAY WILL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS A
CLIPPER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHOT OF STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL
LAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...MAKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ARE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. COMBINE THAT
WILL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND EXPECT
MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT
CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO
THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SOME FOG AT LWB THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY THEN CLEARING TONIGHT. VFR FOR THE VALID PERIOD.
MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT BLF...LWB BUT
THINK THE AIRMASS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT FOR NOW...SO
MENTION IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY IMPACT BLF/LWB BEHIND A FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241144
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN OFF THE SC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC. WE STAY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY
ISSUE BEING A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE MTNS...AND FROST
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST WV BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND LEANING TOWARD THE NAM/GFS MOS...WILL SEE PATCHY
FROST OVER THE MTN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL
POTENTIAL IS THERE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH SUNSHINE DIMMED BY
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MTNS TO
LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
STRATOCU BANKED UP OVER THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM MID 30S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS AS WELL AS PLACES LIKE ROANOKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. WILL START THE DAY WILL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS A
CLIPPER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHOT OF STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL
LAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...MAKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ARE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. COMBINE THAT
WILL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND EXPECT
MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT
CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO
THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SOME FOG AT LWB THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY THEN CLEARING TONIGHT. VFR FOR THE VALID PERIOD.
MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT BLF...LWB BUT
THINK THE AIRMASS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT FOR NOW...SO
MENTION IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY IMPACT BLF/LWB BEHIND A FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 240749
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN OFF THE SC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC. WE STAY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY
ISSUE BEING A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE MTNS...AND FROST
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST WV BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND LEANING TOWARD THE NAM/GFS MOS...WILL SEE PATCHY
FROST OVER THE MTN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL
POTENTIAL IS THERE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH SUNSHINE DIMMED BY
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MTNS TO
LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
STRATOCU BANKED UP OVER THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM MID 30S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS AS WELL AS PLACES LIKE ROANOKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. WILL START THE DAY WILL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS A
CLIPPER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHOT OF STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL
LAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...MAKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ARE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. COMBINE THAT
WILL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND EXPECT
MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMEPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT
CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO
THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LWB MAY
DROP TO 2SM BY MORNING WITH FOG SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE.
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN SKY COVER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. COULD SEE SOME AC/SC IN THE MTNS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES TAF WISE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PH/NF
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 240601
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
201 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LOW CLOUDS OVER SE WV STARTING TO WANE SOME. MEANWHILE...HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE. UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS INTO
THE WEST...WITH TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
EARLY ON. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL LIKELY DETER WIDESPREAD FROST FROM
FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...KEEPING THICK CIRRUS OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS PER BUFKIT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH
COULD POSSIBLE PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THEREFORE MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AT BEST AND
MOST LIKELY WE WILL ONLY SEE VIRGA RETURNS ON RADAR.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEEKEND LOOKS NICE. ASIDE FROM A DRY FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT....WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPIKE INTO THE 10-20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPTH LESS THAN 150
MB. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT CLOSE TO NIL POTENTIAL FOR QPF. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHC -SHRA FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS...BUT GUT FEELING BASED ON THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE IS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. AFTER A BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF
FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LWB MAY
DROP TO 2SM BY MORNING WITH FOG SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE.
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN SKY COVER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. COULD SEE SOME AC/SC IN THE MTNS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES TAF WISE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.



&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 240120
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
920 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT THURSDAY...

ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER IN THE NEAR TERM. LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
HANGING IN TOUGH ACROSS BLUEFIELD AND SE WV. THIS CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE. INCREASED SLIGHTLY THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE FAR SW AS IR SAT AND SURFACE OBS SHOW SOME SCT HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. ALL OTHER PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS
REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY...PUSHING CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL LIKELY DETER
WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...KEEPING THICK CIRRUS OVER
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS PER BUFKIT. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND
DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLE PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS...THEREFORE MEASURABLE
RAIN WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AT BEST AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL ONLY SEE
VIRGA RETURNS ON RADAR.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEEKEND LOOKS NICE. ASIDE FROM A DRY FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT....WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPIKE INTO THE 10-20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPTH LESS THAN 150
MB. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT CLOSE TO NILL POTENTIAL FOR QPF. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHC -SHRA FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS...BUT GUT FEELING BASED ON THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE IS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. AFTER A BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF
FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KBCB...KROA...KLYH...AND KDAN THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR TAF WINDOW. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AT KBLF
AND KLWB UNTIL SUCH TIME LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO WEAKEN...VEER
MORE NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. THE
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE WILL REFLECT A DELAY IN THE MVFR CIGS BECOMING
FEW-SCT UNTIL ROUGHLY 04Z/MIDNIGHT. ONCE SKIES BECOME VFR...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR 10 KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...BUT THEN WEAKEN TO UNDER 6 KTS. SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.

AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR
CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...DS/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 232323
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
723 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY...PUSHING CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL LIKELY DETER
WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...KEEPING THICK CIRRUS OVER
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS PER BUFKIT. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND
DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLE PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS...THEREFORE MEASURABLE
RAIN WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AT BEST AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL ONLY SEE
VIRGA RETURNS ON RADAR.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEEKEND LOOKS NICE. ASIDE FROM A DRY FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT....WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPIKE INTO THE 10-20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPTH LESS THAN 150
MB. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT CLOSE TO NILL POTENTIAL FOR QPF. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHC -SHRA FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS...BUT GUT FEELING BASED ON THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE IS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. AFTER A BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF
FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KBCB...KROA...KLYH...AND KDAN THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR TAF WINDOW. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AT KBLF
AND KLWB UNTIL SUCH TIME LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO WEAKEN...VEER
MORE NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. THE
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE WILL REFLECT A DELAY IN THE MVFR CIGS BECOMING
FEW-SCT UNTIL ROUGHLY 04Z/MIDNIGHT. ONCE SKIES BECOME VFR...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR 10 KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...BUT THEN WEAKEN TO UNDER 6 KTS. SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.

AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR
CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...DS/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231911
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY...PUSHING CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL LIKELY DETER
WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...KEEPING THICK CIRRUS OVER
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS PER BUFKIT. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND
DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLE PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS...THEREFORE MEASURABLE
RAIN WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AT BEST AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL ONLY SEE
VIRGA RETURNS ON RADAR.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEEKEND LOOKS NICE. ASIDE FROM A DRY FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT....WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPIKE INTO THE 10-20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPTH LESS THAN 150
MB. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT CLOSE TO NILL POTENTIAL FOR QPF. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHC -SHRA FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS...BUT GUT FEELING BASED ON THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE IS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. AFTER A BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL
NORM.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF
FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ERODE AS THIS AXIS CROSSES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG ON TO
WESTERN SLOPES (BLF/LWB) INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR BY
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BRING HIGH VFR CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL REMAIN VFR.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KTS MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...LESSER SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BY MIDNIGHT AND WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR
CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231911
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY...PUSHING CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL LIKELY DETER
WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...KEEPING THICK CIRRUS OVER
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS PER BUFKIT. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND
DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLE PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS...THEREFORE MEASURABLE
RAIN WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AT BEST AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL ONLY SEE
VIRGA RETURNS ON RADAR.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEEKEND LOOKS NICE. ASIDE FROM A DRY FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT....WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPIKE INTO THE 10-20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPTH LESS THAN 150
MB. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT CLOSE TO NILL POTENTIAL FOR QPF. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHC -SHRA FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS...BUT GUT FEELING BASED ON THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE IS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. AFTER A BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL
NORM.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF
FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ERODE AS THIS AXIS CROSSES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG ON TO
WESTERN SLOPES (BLF/LWB) INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR BY
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BRING HIGH VFR CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL REMAIN VFR.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KTS MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...LESSER SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BY MIDNIGHT AND WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR
CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231657
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1257 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ERODE AS THIS AXIS CROSSES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...LESSER SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD WITH 60S EAST BEING AIDED
BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...50S LIKELY...LOWER END ON WESTERN SLOPES WHO WILL HANG
ON TO CLOUDS LONGER TO UPPER 50S IN AREAS CLEARING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
40S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK
ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST
STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA BY DAWN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ERODE AS THIS AXIS CROSSES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG ON TO
WESTERN SLOPES (BLF/LWB) INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR BY
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BRING HIGH VFR CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL REMAIN VFR.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KTS MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...LESSER SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BY MIDNIGHT AND WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.


MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR
CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231657
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1257 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ERODE AS THIS AXIS CROSSES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...LESSER SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD WITH 60S EAST BEING AIDED
BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...50S LIKELY...LOWER END ON WESTERN SLOPES WHO WILL HANG
ON TO CLOUDS LONGER TO UPPER 50S IN AREAS CLEARING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
40S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK
ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST
STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA BY DAWN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ERODE AS THIS AXIS CROSSES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG ON TO
WESTERN SLOPES (BLF/LWB) INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR BY
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BRING HIGH VFR CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL REMAIN VFR.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KTS MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...LESSER SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BY MIDNIGHT AND WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.


MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR
CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231448
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1048 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MAY NOT ERODE UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON WESTERN SLOPES WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. NOT MUCH TO UPDATE...MAINLY
KEEPING GRIDS REFRESHED WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.


AS OF 700 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...HOWEVER CLOUDS
DISSIPATE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WHEN MOISTURE WILL BECOME TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BREAKING OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR
WESTERN RIDGES ARE LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 10 AM AS THE INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE
OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST
STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA BY DAWN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TAKING PLACE MID TO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CIGS BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. CIGS WILL
SCATTER SOONER AT BCB...BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST AND STARTING THE DAY GUSTY...
BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY 14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231448
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1048 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MAY NOT ERODE UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON WESTERN SLOPES WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. NOT MUCH TO UPDATE...MAINLY
KEEPING GRIDS REFRESHED WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.


AS OF 700 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...HOWEVER CLOUDS
DISSIPATE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WHEN MOISTURE WILL BECOME TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BREAKING OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR
WESTERN RIDGES ARE LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 10 AM AS THE INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE
OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST
STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA BY DAWN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TAKING PLACE MID TO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CIGS BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. CIGS WILL
SCATTER SOONER AT BCB...BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST AND STARTING THE DAY GUSTY...
BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY 14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...HOWEVER CLOUDS
DISSIPATE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WHEN MOISTURE WILL BECOME TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BREAKING OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR
WESTERN RIDGES ARE LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 10 AM AS THE INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE
OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST
STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA BY DAWN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TAKING PLACE MID TO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CIGS BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. CIGS WILL
SCATTER SOONER AT BCB...BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST AND STARTING THE DAY GUSTY...
BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY 14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/NF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231107
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
707 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...HOWEVER CLOUDS
DISSIPATE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WHEN MOISTURE WILL BECOME TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BREAKING OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR
WESTERN RIDGES ARE LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 10 AM AS THE INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE
OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST
STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA BY DAWN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW 005...SOME
MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED
OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS 18-25KTS AT THE USUAL
LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/NF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230751
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
IN THE WEST AND ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TODAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 10 AM AS THE INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE
OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST
STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA BY DAWN MONDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW 005...SOME
MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED
OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS 18-25KTS AT THE USUAL
LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230751
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
IN THE WEST AND ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TODAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 10 AM AS THE INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE
OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST
STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA BY DAWN MONDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW 005...SOME
MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED
OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS 18-25KTS AT THE USUAL
LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
144 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED TEMPS AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. BACKED OFF ON
MUCH OF THE POPS OVERNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
BELOW THE ALREADY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD DECK. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
FEW STRAY SPRINKLES ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE
WV FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN
INTACT.

AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW 005...SOME
MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED
OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS 18-25KTS AT THE USUAL
LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230150
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
950 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED TEMPS AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. BACKED OFF ON
MUCH OF THE POPS OVERNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
BELOW THE ALREADY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD DECK. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
FEW STRAY SPRINKLES ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE
WV FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN
INTACT.

AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL PULL AWAY THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW-SCT
VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THU...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW
005...SOME MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS...REMAINING NW BUT
DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THU 14Z- 22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYBS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/NONE





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230150
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
950 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED TEMPS AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. BACKED OFF ON
MUCH OF THE POPS OVERNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
BELOW THE ALREADY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD DECK. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
FEW STRAY SPRINKLES ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE
WV FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN
INTACT.

AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL PULL AWAY THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW-SCT
VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THU...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW
005...SOME MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS...REMAINING NW BUT
DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THU 14Z- 22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYBS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/NONE





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230006
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
806 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL PULL AWAY THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW-SCT
VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THU...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW
005...SOME MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS...REMAINING NW BUT
DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THU 14Z- 22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYBS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/SR





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230006
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
806 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL PULL AWAY THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW-SCT
VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THU...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW
005...SOME MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS...REMAINING NW BUT
DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THU 14Z- 22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYBS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/SR





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221956
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
356 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC
FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR AT
LWB/BCB...VFR EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
APPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000- 5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH CLEARING IN THE EAST...MIXING WILL BE MORE LIKELY AND
TERMINALS CAN EXPECT 20-30KT SURFACE GUSTS. WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND REMAIN ALONG RIDGETOPS. INVERSION WILL BREAK TOMORROW MORNING
WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...SR





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221706
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
106 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER
ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LIMITING SHOWERS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. THERE STILL EXISTS
SHORT WAVES AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW THAT COULD PUSH LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29 THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
WAVES AND MOISTURE ON THE OUTER RINGS OF THIS LOW MAY ALSO BRING
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. UPDATE WAS TO LOWER POPS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN RAISE TO 30 PERCENT EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE
CONFIDENT ON RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THAN ELSEWHERE.

LACK OF RAIN THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO FORECAST HIGHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE.


AS OF 1020 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL ACTIVITY PULLS A BIT EASTWARD. WILL ADJUST
POPS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER AREA WITH PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH WILL BE IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IN BETWEEN...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

AS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...THE WINDS
WILL RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WE CAN EXPECT
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

THE GREATER INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H
WINDS ARE PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN ISOLATED HIGHER GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6
HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR
INSOLATION.

AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY...
BECOMING ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES...500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...TRANSLATING INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER RIDGING THIS WEEKEND...
PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL ESSENTIALLY BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO LIFT
AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC
FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR AT
LWB/BCB...VFR EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
APPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000- 5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH CLEARING IN THE EAST...MIXING WILL BE MORE LIKELY AND
TERMINALS CAN EXPECT 20-30KT SURFACE GUSTS. WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND REMAIN ALONG RIDGETOPS. INVERSION WILL BREAK TOMORROW MORNING
WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RIDGE/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221706
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
106 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER
ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LIMITING SHOWERS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. THERE STILL EXISTS
SHORT WAVES AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW THAT COULD PUSH LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29 THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
WAVES AND MOISTURE ON THE OUTER RINGS OF THIS LOW MAY ALSO BRING
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. UPDATE WAS TO LOWER POPS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN RAISE TO 30 PERCENT EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE
CONFIDENT ON RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THAN ELSEWHERE.

LACK OF RAIN THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO FORECAST HIGHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE.


AS OF 1020 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL ACTIVITY PULLS A BIT EASTWARD. WILL ADJUST
POPS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER AREA WITH PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH WILL BE IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IN BETWEEN...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

AS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...THE WINDS
WILL RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WE CAN EXPECT
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

THE GREATER INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H
WINDS ARE PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN ISOLATED HIGHER GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6
HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR
INSOLATION.

AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY...
BECOMING ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES...500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...TRANSLATING INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER RIDGING THIS WEEKEND...
PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL ESSENTIALLY BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO LIFT
AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC
FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR AT
LWB/BCB...VFR EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
APPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000- 5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH CLEARING IN THE EAST...MIXING WILL BE MORE LIKELY AND
TERMINALS CAN EXPECT 20-30KT SURFACE GUSTS. WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND REMAIN ALONG RIDGETOPS. INVERSION WILL BREAK TOMORROW MORNING
WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RIDGE/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221429
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1029 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL ACTIVITY PULLS A BIT EASTWARD. WILL ADJUST
POPS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER AREA WITH PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH WILL BE IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IN BETWEEN...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

AS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...THE WINDS
WILL RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WE CAN EXPECT
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

THE GREATER INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H
WINDS ARE PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN ISOLATED HIGHER GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6
HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR
INSOLATION.

AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY...
BECOMING ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES...500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...TRANSLATING INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER RIDGING THIS WEEKEND...
PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL ESSENTIALLY BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO LIFT
AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY...AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A
WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH IFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR FURTHER
EAST. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR/HIGH MVFR TOWARD BCB...AND THEN
SCATTER TO VFR OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A
KROA/KLYH LINE...HIGHWAY 460. ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
FROM THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WEST TONIGHT...WHILE THE EAST WILL DRY OUT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE
COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA
TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221141
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN
AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE NOR-EASTER STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST BY-
PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SHORTWAVES ROTATING EASTWARD
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME...ONE SHORTWAVE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS WITH MORE WEIGHTING THIS MORNING
TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW. ASIDE FROM RAIN THREAT...THE GREATER
INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE PROGGED
AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED HIGHER
GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS
MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER
AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A
DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY...AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A
WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH IFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR FURTHER
EAST. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR/HIGH MVFR TOWARD BCB...AND THEN
SCATTER TO VFR OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A
KROA/KLYH LINE...HIGHWAY 460. ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
FROM THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WEST TONIGHT...WHILE THE EAST WILL DRY OUT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE
COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA
TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220805
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
405 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN
AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE NOR-EASTER STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST BY-
PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SHORTWAVES ROTATING EASTWARD
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME...ONE SHORTWAVE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS WITH MORE WEIGHTING THIS MORNING
TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW. ASIDE FROM RAIN THREAT...THE GREATER
INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE PROGGED
AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED HIGHER
GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS
MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER
AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A
DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY...AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A
WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TODAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE FROM THE
VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WEST TONIGHT...WHILE THE EAST WILL DRY OUT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE
COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA
TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/KK/PM





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