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000
FXUS61 KRNK 230751
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
IN THE WEST AND ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TODAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 10 AM AS THE INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE
OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST
STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA BY DAWN MONDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW 005...SOME
MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED
OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS 18-25KTS AT THE USUAL
LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230751
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
IN THE WEST AND ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TODAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 10 AM AS THE INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE
OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST
STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA BY DAWN MONDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW 005...SOME
MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED
OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS 18-25KTS AT THE USUAL
LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
144 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED TEMPS AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. BACKED OFF ON
MUCH OF THE POPS OVERNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
BELOW THE ALREADY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD DECK. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
FEW STRAY SPRINKLES ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE
WV FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN
INTACT.

AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW 005...SOME
MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED
OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS 18-25KTS AT THE USUAL
LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230150
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
950 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED TEMPS AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. BACKED OFF ON
MUCH OF THE POPS OVERNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
BELOW THE ALREADY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD DECK. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
FEW STRAY SPRINKLES ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE
WV FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN
INTACT.

AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL PULL AWAY THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW-SCT
VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THU...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW
005...SOME MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS...REMAINING NW BUT
DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THU 14Z- 22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYBS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/NONE





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230150
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
950 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED TEMPS AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. BACKED OFF ON
MUCH OF THE POPS OVERNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
BELOW THE ALREADY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD DECK. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
FEW STRAY SPRINKLES ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE
WV FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN
INTACT.

AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL PULL AWAY THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW-SCT
VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THU...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW
005...SOME MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS...REMAINING NW BUT
DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THU 14Z- 22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYBS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/NONE





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230006
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
806 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL PULL AWAY THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW-SCT
VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THU...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW
005...SOME MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS...REMAINING NW BUT
DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THU 14Z- 22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYBS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/SR





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230006
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
806 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA
LATE THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL PULL AWAY THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW-SCT
VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THU...WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW
005...SOME MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS...REMAINING NW BUT
DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THU 14Z- 22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYBS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/SR





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221956
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
356 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES
TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK
PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE
OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT
WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE
M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES
CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF.
CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC
FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR AT
LWB/BCB...VFR EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
APPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000- 5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH CLEARING IN THE EAST...MIXING WILL BE MORE LIKELY AND
TERMINALS CAN EXPECT 20-30KT SURFACE GUSTS. WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND REMAIN ALONG RIDGETOPS. INVERSION WILL BREAK TOMORROW MORNING
WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...SR





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221706
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
106 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER
ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LIMITING SHOWERS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. THERE STILL EXISTS
SHORT WAVES AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW THAT COULD PUSH LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29 THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
WAVES AND MOISTURE ON THE OUTER RINGS OF THIS LOW MAY ALSO BRING
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. UPDATE WAS TO LOWER POPS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN RAISE TO 30 PERCENT EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE
CONFIDENT ON RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THAN ELSEWHERE.

LACK OF RAIN THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO FORECAST HIGHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE.


AS OF 1020 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL ACTIVITY PULLS A BIT EASTWARD. WILL ADJUST
POPS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER AREA WITH PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH WILL BE IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IN BETWEEN...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

AS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...THE WINDS
WILL RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WE CAN EXPECT
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

THE GREATER INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H
WINDS ARE PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN ISOLATED HIGHER GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6
HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR
INSOLATION.

AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY...
BECOMING ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES...500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...TRANSLATING INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER RIDGING THIS WEEKEND...
PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL ESSENTIALLY BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO LIFT
AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC
FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR AT
LWB/BCB...VFR EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
APPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000- 5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH CLEARING IN THE EAST...MIXING WILL BE MORE LIKELY AND
TERMINALS CAN EXPECT 20-30KT SURFACE GUSTS. WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND REMAIN ALONG RIDGETOPS. INVERSION WILL BREAK TOMORROW MORNING
WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RIDGE/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221706
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
106 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER
ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LIMITING SHOWERS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. THERE STILL EXISTS
SHORT WAVES AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW THAT COULD PUSH LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29 THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
WAVES AND MOISTURE ON THE OUTER RINGS OF THIS LOW MAY ALSO BRING
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. UPDATE WAS TO LOWER POPS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN RAISE TO 30 PERCENT EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE
CONFIDENT ON RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THAN ELSEWHERE.

LACK OF RAIN THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO FORECAST HIGHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE.


AS OF 1020 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL ACTIVITY PULLS A BIT EASTWARD. WILL ADJUST
POPS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER AREA WITH PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH WILL BE IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IN BETWEEN...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

AS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...THE WINDS
WILL RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WE CAN EXPECT
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

THE GREATER INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H
WINDS ARE PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN ISOLATED HIGHER GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6
HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR
INSOLATION.

AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY...
BECOMING ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES...500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...TRANSLATING INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER RIDGING THIS WEEKEND...
PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL ESSENTIALLY BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO LIFT
AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC
FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR AT
LWB/BCB...VFR EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
APPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000- 5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH CLEARING IN THE EAST...MIXING WILL BE MORE LIKELY AND
TERMINALS CAN EXPECT 20-30KT SURFACE GUSTS. WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND REMAIN ALONG RIDGETOPS. INVERSION WILL BREAK TOMORROW MORNING
WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RIDGE/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221429
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1029 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL ACTIVITY PULLS A BIT EASTWARD. WILL ADJUST
POPS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER AREA WITH PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH WILL BE IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IN BETWEEN...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

AS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...THE WINDS
WILL RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WE CAN EXPECT
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

THE GREATER INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H
WINDS ARE PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN ISOLATED HIGHER GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6
HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR
INSOLATION.

AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY...
BECOMING ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES...500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...TRANSLATING INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER RIDGING THIS WEEKEND...
PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL ESSENTIALLY BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO LIFT
AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY...AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A
WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH IFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR FURTHER
EAST. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR/HIGH MVFR TOWARD BCB...AND THEN
SCATTER TO VFR OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A
KROA/KLYH LINE...HIGHWAY 460. ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
FROM THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WEST TONIGHT...WHILE THE EAST WILL DRY OUT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE
COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA
TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221141
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN
AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE NOR-EASTER STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST BY-
PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SHORTWAVES ROTATING EASTWARD
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME...ONE SHORTWAVE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS WITH MORE WEIGHTING THIS MORNING
TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW. ASIDE FROM RAIN THREAT...THE GREATER
INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE PROGGED
AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED HIGHER
GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS
MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER
AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A
DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY...AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A
WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH IFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR FURTHER
EAST. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR/HIGH MVFR TOWARD BCB...AND THEN
SCATTER TO VFR OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A
KROA/KLYH LINE...HIGHWAY 460. ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
FROM THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WEST TONIGHT...WHILE THE EAST WILL DRY OUT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE
COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA
TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220805
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
405 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN
AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE NOR-EASTER STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST BY-
PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SHORTWAVES ROTATING EASTWARD
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME...ONE SHORTWAVE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS WITH MORE WEIGHTING THIS MORNING
TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW. ASIDE FROM RAIN THREAT...THE GREATER
INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE PROGGED
AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED HIGHER
GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS
MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER
AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A
DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE
POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION BUILDS EAST.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY...AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A
WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TODAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE FROM THE
VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WEST TONIGHT...WHILE THE EAST WILL DRY OUT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE
COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA
TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/KK/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220553
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW CENTER TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
WITH SFC OBS AND SHAPED TRENDS TOWARDS LAV GUIDANCE. MORE LATER
THIS MORNING...


AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AS
THEY ARE COOLING OFF MUCH QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS SE WV...AND MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE NRV AND
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. AS ANTICIPATED PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SE WV. ALL OTHER
PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY...AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A
WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TODAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE FROM THE
VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WEST TONIGHT...WHILE THE EAST WILL DRY OUT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE
COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA
TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/KK/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220553
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW CENTER TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
WITH SFC OBS AND SHAPED TRENDS TOWARDS LAV GUIDANCE. MORE LATER
THIS MORNING...


AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AS
THEY ARE COOLING OFF MUCH QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS SE WV...AND MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE NRV AND
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. AS ANTICIPATED PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SE WV. ALL OTHER
PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY...AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A
WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TODAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE FROM THE
VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WEST TONIGHT...WHILE THE EAST WILL DRY OUT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE
COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA
TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/KK/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220444
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW CENTER TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
WITH SFC OBS AND SHAPED TRENDS TOWARDS LAV GUIDANCE. MORE LATER
THIS MORNING...


AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AS
THEY ARE COOLING OFF MUCH QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS SE WV...AND MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE NRV AND
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. AS ANTICIPATED PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SE WV. ALL OTHER
PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT
AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESP FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220444
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW CENTER TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
WITH SFC OBS AND SHAPED TRENDS TOWARDS LAV GUIDANCE. MORE LATER
THIS MORNING...


AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AS
THEY ARE COOLING OFF MUCH QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS SE WV...AND MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE NRV AND
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. AS ANTICIPATED PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SE WV. ALL OTHER
PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT
AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESP FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220146
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
946 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AS
THEY ARE COOLING OFF MUCH QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS SE WV...AND MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE NRV AND
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. AS ANTICIPATED PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SE WV. ALL OTHER
PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT
AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESP FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 212335
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
735 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT
AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESP FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211928
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT
AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESP FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211455
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1055 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS SHOWING TYPICAL PATTERN OF CLEAR EAST TO
CLOUDY WEST AND SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING TO REFORM AS
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROF
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS OVERALL FLAVOR TO
CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE WITH AN EXPECTED DIURNAL
TREND. HAVE FRESHENED THE GRIDS WITH CURRENT DATA BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY.
A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL
PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. PLAYED POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211455
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1055 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS SHOWING TYPICAL PATTERN OF CLEAR EAST TO
CLOUDY WEST AND SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING TO REFORM AS
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROF
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS OVERALL FLAVOR TO
CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE WITH AN EXPECTED DIURNAL
TREND. HAVE FRESHENED THE GRIDS WITH CURRENT DATA BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY.
A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL
PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. PLAYED POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210858
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
458 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210858
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
458 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210546
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST OF OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS IT PUSHES EAST INTO OUR REGION. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING.


AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210546
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST OF OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS IT PUSHES EAST INTO OUR REGION. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING.


AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210130
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
930 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210130
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
930 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 202333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF
IT...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BANDS OF
SHOWERS TOWARD THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS ARRIVING CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ITS
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WASH OUT
AFTER IT CROSSES THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. THE
SECOND BAND WAS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM OHIO INTO INDIANA. IT TOO
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND ALSO WASH OUT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY MORE MILD COMPARED TO READINGS OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS. ANTICIPATE A MIX OF MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTIDAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...THE
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH DRIER AIR
RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS MAY
RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 202333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF
IT...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BANDS OF
SHOWERS TOWARD THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS ARRIVING CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ITS
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WASH OUT
AFTER IT CROSSES THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. THE
SECOND BAND WAS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM OHIO INTO INDIANA. IT TOO
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND ALSO WASH OUT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY MORE MILD COMPARED TO READINGS OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS. ANTICIPATE A MIX OF MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTIDAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...THE
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH DRIER AIR
RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS MAY
RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 201917
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF
IT...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BANDS OF
SHOWERS TOWARD THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS ARRIVING CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ITS
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WASH OUT
AFTER IT CROSSES THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. THE
SECOND BAND WAS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM OHIO INTO INDIANA. IT TOO
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND ALSO WASH OUT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY MORE MILD COMPARED TO READINGS OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS. ANTICIPATE A MIX OF MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTIDAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...THE
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH DRIER AIR
RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS MAY
RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF GOOD ENOUGH WITH VFR FOR ALL SITES.
HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN HEADING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF MOVING INTO THE ERN US. SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THE PCPN
WILL BE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ALSO DO
NOT SHOW VERY LOW CIGS WITH THIS PCPN. WILL TIME THE BAND OF
PCPN WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND KEEP CIGS VFR WITH A
TEMPO TO MVFR FOR VSBY WITH SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE WEST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS A BIT SO CIGS LOOK TO STAY UP THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. FLOW IS A BIT LAZY IN SWINGING AROUND TO A GOOD
NWLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND THIS LOOKS TO PREVENT KBLF FROM HAVING
A SOLID IFR CIG SET IN. SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND ENOUGH OF A
LIGHT WIND TO KEEP THINGS MIXED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT OBVIS
FROM SETTING UP. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST SHOT LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
A BETTER NW UPSLOPE FETCH WILL HELP GET SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
GOING WEST OF THE RIDGE.

WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN AGAIN VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 201740
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FIRST...PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IS ALLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TO REACH TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY. CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT
THEY WILL NOT ARRIVE BEFORE THE IMPACT OF THE SUNSHINE HELPS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY ROUGHLY THIS MUCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. SECONDLY...THE APPROACHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA IS ON TRACK TO ENTER THE REGION AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW
SOLUTIONS...AND CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST A BIT MORE
OF A BREAK BETWEEN THIS FIRST WAVE...AND THE SECOND ONE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
DEPICT THIS PATTERN WITHIN THE HOURLY NDFD POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...

ALL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAVE EXPIRED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A BAND OF PCPN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US. MESO MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP OF THE SITUATION AND BASED ON
THIS...WILL BUMP TIMING OF POPS UP A COUPLE OF HOURS TO REFLECT
EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT GRID
SET SO WILL FRESHEN WITH CURRENT DATA AND MAKE ONLY MINOR TREND
ADJUSTMENTS.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST AFTER
SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND
BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC
WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF GOOD ENOUGH WITH VFR FOR ALL SITES.
HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN HEADING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF MOVING INTO THE ERN US. SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THE PCPN
WILL BE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ALSO DO
NOT SHOW VERY LOW CIGS WITH THIS PCPN. WILL TIME THE BAND OF
PCPN WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND KEEP CIGS VFR WITH A
TEMPO TO MVFR FOR VSBY WITH SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE WEST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS A BIT SO CIGS LOOK TO STAY UP THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. FLOW IS A BIT LAZY IN SWINGING AROUND TO A GOOD
NWLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND THIS LOOKS TO PREVENT KBLF FROM HAVING
A SOLID IFR CIG SET IN. SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND ENOUGH OF A
LIGHT WIND TO KEEP THINGS MIXED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT OBVIS
FROM SETTING UP. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST SHOT LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
A BETTER NW UPSLOPE FETCH WILL HELP GET SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
GOING WEST OF THE RIDGE.

WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN AGAIN VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201449
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1049 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...

ALL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAVE EXPIRED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A BAND OF PCPN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US. MESO MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP OF THE SITUATION AND BASED ON
THIS...WILL BUMP TIMING OF POPS UP A COUPLE OF HOURS TO REFLECT
EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT GRID
SET SO WILL FRESHEN WITH CURRENT DATA AND MAKE ONLY MINOR TREND
ADJUSTMENTS.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST AFTER
SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND
BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC
WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWED
RETURN SW FLOW TO RETURN EARLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
LOW POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 100 BY
AFTERNOON...THEN TOWARD 050 IN WESTERN AREAS BY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUD SITUATION OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT
EASTERN WV...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFT 04Z...INCLUDING
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB WITH TIME. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL LOWER TOWARD 050 EXCEPT KDAN. SCT -SHRA MAY
DEVELOP EASTERN WV WITH THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW THEREAFTER. SFC MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING...SO
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AT THIS POINT. LIFR-
IFR VSBYS ADVERTISED FOR LWB IN THE MOS GENERATED TAFS APPEAR TO
BE CLIMO BASED AND DO NOT SUPPORT ONGOING SYNOPTIC SITUATION.
WINDS...SW 7-10KTS TODAY WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WSW-W OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 6-8KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IMMEDIATE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...MBS/KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201137
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWED
RETURN SW FLOW TO RETURN EARLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
LOW POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 100 BY
AFTERNOON...THEN TOWARD 050 IN WESTERN AREAS BY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUD SITUATION OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT
EASTERN WV...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFT 04Z...INCLUDING
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB WITH TIME. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL LOWER TOWARD 050 EXCEPT KDAN. SCT -SHRA MAY
DEVELOP EASTERN WV WITH THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW THEREAFTER. SFC MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING...SO
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AT THIS POINT. LIFR-
IFR VSBYS ADVERTISED FOR LWB IN THE MOS GENERATED TAFS APPEAR TO
BE CLIMO BASED AND DO NOT SUPPORT ONGOING SYNOPTIC SITUATION.
WINDS...SW 7-10KTS TODAY WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WSW-W OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 6-8KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IMMEDIATE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 201137
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWED
RETURN SW FLOW TO RETURN EARLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
LOW POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 100 BY
AFTERNOON...THEN TOWARD 050 IN WESTERN AREAS BY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUD SITUATION OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT
EASTERN WV...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFT 04Z...INCLUDING
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB WITH TIME. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL LOWER TOWARD 050 EXCEPT KDAN. SCT -SHRA MAY
DEVELOP EASTERN WV WITH THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW THEREAFTER. SFC MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING...SO
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AT THIS POINT. LIFR-
IFR VSBYS ADVERTISED FOR LWB IN THE MOS GENERATED TAFS APPEAR TO
BE CLIMO BASED AND DO NOT SUPPORT ONGOING SYNOPTIC SITUATION.
WINDS...SW 7-10KTS TODAY WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WSW-W OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 6-8KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IMMEDIATE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




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