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000
FXUS61 KRNK 011744
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AIR WEDGE ERODES THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST UPDATED TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS WE ARE
BETWEEN UPPER WAVES...WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS TO ERODE THE WEDGE A LITTLE FASTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. GETTING MORE SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...SO THIS WILL
ACT TO INCREASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO AWAIT FOR THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER WRN KY LATE THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE DAY. UNTIL THEN...COULD SEE SOME POP UP SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED STORMS WITH INCREASING POPS IN THE WEST AFTER 4 PM.

SVR THREAT STILL FAVORS KY/TN/OHIO INTO WV...AND MAY SEE SOME
STRONGER STORMS MAKE IT TO FAR SW VA INTO SE WV BY 8PM.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE...UPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING 70S. WEDGE MAY STICK AROUND LONGER FROM AMHERST TO
KEYSVILLE VA...BUT EVEN THEN STRONG SUN ANGLE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE AREA IS LEFT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO A PERSISTENT
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW...ONE WHICH WILL
HELP PUSH A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
THEN STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY MON. FEEL THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE WEDGE IN EASTERN SECTIONS WILL FINALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE
WITH MINIMAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY
SEE MIN TEMPS MONDAY MORNING CLOSE TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY...AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THE CWA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS
FOR MONDAY REACH THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH WILL ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
ANY STRONGER STORMS MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
HOW FAR SOUTH IT CAN REACH BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY REMAINS A
LITTLE QUESTIONABLE. REGARDLESS...IT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS TIME.

SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STALLED FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD DIP FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
SUCCESSFULLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. THAT SITUATION SHOULD KEEP JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS NEARLY THE SAME COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GAINS ENOUGH ENERGY TO LIFT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF
OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO CUT
OFF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN CREATES ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UNITED STATES SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS WITNESSED BACK IN MID APRIL...WHICH BOTH THE LATEST
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR DUE TO BEING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WITH COOL AND WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK GRADUALLY WEAKENS...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BEGINS OVERHEAD. IT APPEARS THAT WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS COULD ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST RAP/NAM MODELS. SHOULD
SEE ALL SITES BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS ERODE AND SW
FLOW DIMINISHES THE WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON WILL
BE SEEING ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE MOVING FROM KY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY POP...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST THREAT WILL NOT BE
UNTIL AFTER 21Z ACROSS BLF/LWB THEN POSSIBLY ROA/BCB BY 00Z. STILL
MODELS ARE SHOWING SCT/BKN COVERAGE SO FOR POINTS LIKE LYH/ROA
WILL ONLY PUT IN VCSH FOR NOW...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

ONCE THIS IMPULSE MOVES EAST BY MIDNIGHT...A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. QUESTION WILL BE LOW LVL MOISTURE LEADING
TO LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS. NOT SEEING ANY RETURN TO WEDGE AS FLOW
STAYS SW AT THE SFC. KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
TEMPO IN AT LWB/BCB...BUT ALL SITES COULD SINK TO IFR OR WORSE
DURING THE 06-13Z TIME FRAME.

AS SW FLOW KICKS IN MONDAY MORNING A TRANSITION TO SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS TO TAKE PLACE AT ALL SITES...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD BY MONDAY. MORE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL...FLYING
CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...RAB/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1140 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AIR WEDGE ERODES THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST UPDATED TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS WE ARE
BETWEEN UPPER WAVES...WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS TO ERODE THE WEDGE A LITTLE FASTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. GETTING MORE SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...SO THIS WILL
ACT TO INCREASE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO AWAIT FOR THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER WRN KY LATE THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE DAY. UNTIL THEN...COULD SEE SOME POP UP SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED STORMS WITH INCREASING POPS IN THE WEST AFTER 4 PM.

SVR THREAT STILL FAVORS KY/TN/OHIO INTO WV...AND MAY SEE SOME
STRONGER STORMS MAKE IT TO FAR SW VA INTO SE WV BY 8PM.

GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE...UPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING 70S. WEDGE MAY STICK AROUND LONGER FROM AMHERST TO
KEYSVILLE VA...BUT EVEN THEN STRONG SUN ANGLE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE AREA IS LEFT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO A PERSISTENT
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW...ONE WHICH WILL
HELP PUSH A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
THEN STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY MON. FEEL THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE WEDGE IN EASTERN SECTIONS WILL FINALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE
WITH MINIMAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY
SEE MIN TEMPS MONDAY MORNING CLOSE TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY...AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THE CWA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS
FOR MONDAY REACH THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH WILL ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
ANY STRONGER STORMS MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
HOW FAR SOUTH IT CAN REACH BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY REMAINS A
LITTLE QUESTIONABLE. REGARDLESS...IT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS TIME.

SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STALLED FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD DIP FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
SUCCESSFULLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. THAT SITUATION SHOULD KEEP JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS NEARLY THE SAME COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GAINS ENOUGH ENERGY TO LIFT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF
OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO CUT
OFF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN CREATES ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UNITED STATES SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS WITNESSED BACK IN MID APRIL...WHICH BOTH THE LATEST
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR DUE TO BEING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WITH COOL AND WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK GRADUALLY WEAKENS...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BEGINS OVERHEAD. IT APPEARS THAT WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS COULD ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1138 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPDATE TO CLEAR LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE WEST WITH WEDGE
ERODING. THINK DAN/LYH/ROA WILL ALSO SCOUR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT
LEAST TO MVFR/LOW END MVFR. CONVECTION MAY IMPACT LWB/BLF AND
POSSIBLY BCB BETWEEN 21-01Z.

PREVIOUS VALID AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANY UPPER SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT AWAITING THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES
THE REGION LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NOT CONFIDENT THAT WEDGE WILL COMPLETELY ERODE IN EASTERN AREAS.
VSBYS...WHICH COULD ALLOW LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO SEE
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 06Z MON IN DENSE FOG.

WINDS MOSTLY E-SE 5-7KTS...BECOMING SW KBLF/KLWB THIS
MORNING...THEN SW ELSEWHERE AFT 18Z...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
7-10KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOR ANY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REACH
KLYH/KDAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TOWARD THE SSW AFT
00Z...FURTHER AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND IN PLACE ALL
AREAS.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVERHEAD BY MONDAY. MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER
POOR THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PW/RAB/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011317
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
917 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AIR WEDGE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WEDGE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WITH SUNSHINE STARTING
TO PEEK OUT IN THE NC MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA PER LATEST VIS
SATELLITE AND WEATHER CAMS. TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ONCE LEADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ANOTHER
STRETCHED FROM FAR SW VA/SE KY NORTHEAST TO THE ALLEGHANYS. HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS TOO WELL...SLOWER THAN WHAT IS
GOING ON...THOUGH THE 00Z HIRES-ARW HAD A DECENT ENOUGH GRASP AT
12Z. WILL LEAN ON PERSISTENCE AND TRACKING THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ADDED SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...BUT OVERALL
AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH 18Z APPEARS TO BE UNDER AN INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CELLS AND LINES ARE TRANSIENT AND MOVING
FAST ENOUGH SO FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THE MOMENT.
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF CELLS OCCURS.

AS FAR AS SVR THREAT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLEARING...AS THE 6Z NAM
AND 00Z CMC ARE SHOWING CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AND
SW CWA. IF THIS OCCURS...WILL SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. BETTER SHEAR
STILL EXISTS OVER KY AND THINK THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN SHOULD
BE FROM CENTRAL KY TO FAR SW VA INTO SRN WV THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY DOWN ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS.

PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A VARIETY OF SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. TO START...A STRONG MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS TRACKING FROM THE TN VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. A STRONG WEDGE WAS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS NORTHEAST GA. RAIN
CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE WEDGE SERVES TO ENHANCE IT FURTHER.
BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHEN WILL THE WEDGE BREAK. MOST MODELS...INCLUDING
THE HRRR...INSIST THAT IT WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT NORTHEAST BY MID-
DAY...LEAVING THE AREA IN A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AND WARMER AIR MASS
BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALWAYS A BIG QUESTION IN THIS TYPE OF
SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEEN SIMILAR RECENT EVENTS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS...SO IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
ALOFT...SOME OF THE BEST FORCING PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
MID-DAY. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS LEFT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
FLOW...ONE WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY MON. MANY
QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE VERY LACK LUSTER WITH INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE WEDGE IN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
GFS IS ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM SHOWING AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER CONVECTION. SPC
HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE EXTREME E-NE PORTION IN A
MARGINAL RISK TODAY...NOTING AS I HAVE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER ALL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN A FEW RUMBLES
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BUT SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS A
BIG UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. MODEL MOISTURE/QPF FIELDS ARE
EXTREMELY NOISY...MURKY...AND RATHER NON-DESCRIPT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SPECIFICALLY FAVORED AREAS. CATEGORICAL TO DEFINITE POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR THE MORNING...WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON

TEMPERATURES TODAY ALSO AN UNCERTAINTY AND HINGE ON WHEN/IF THE
WEDGE BREAKS. AGAIN...THE GFS IS ON THE WARM END OF THE SPECTRUM
SHOWING WIDESPREAD MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 18Z. ECMWF IS
ON THE COOL END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST
OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKING IS NOT THAT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THIS IS AN INTENSE WEDGE...MORE SO THAN RECENT ONES.
HOWEVER...DO FEEL THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE IN EASTERN
SECTIONS WILL FINALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH
MINIMAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY SEE
MIN TEMPS MONDAY MORNING CLOSE TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY...AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THE CWA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS
FOR MONDAY REACH THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH WILL ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
ANY STRONGER STORMS MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
HOW FAR SOUTH IT CAN REACH BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY REMAINS A
LITTLE QUESTIONABLE. REGARDLESS...IT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS TIME.

SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STALLED FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD DIP FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
SUCCESSFULLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. THAT SITUATION SHOULD KEEP JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS NEARLY THE SAME COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GAINS ENOUGH ENERGY TO LIFT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF
OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO CUT
OFF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN CREATES ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UNITED STATES SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS WITNESSED BACK IN MID APRIL...WHICH BOTH THE LATEST
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR DUE TO BEING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WITH COOL AND WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK GRADUALLY WEAKENS...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BEGINS OVERHEAD. IT APPEARS THAT WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS COULD ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. NOT TOTALLY POSITIVE THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS INDICATE...BUT IT SHOULD AT LEAST
ERODE IN WESTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON. EQUALLY IN QUESTION IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ROBUST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. DEGREE OF WARMING/INSTABILITY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES. UPPER SUPPORT IS MINIMAL
DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. ANY UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AWAITING
THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR-LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
MORNING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...WITH LOCALLY MVFR-IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WEDGE
WILL COMPLETELY ERODE IN EASTERN AREAS VSBYS...WHICH COULD ALLOW
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO SEE IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER
06Z MON IN DENSE FOG.

WINDS MOSTLY E-SE 5-7KTS...BECOMING SW KBLF/KLWB THIS
MORNING...THEN SW ELSEWHERE AFT 18Z...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
7-10KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOR ANY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REACH
KLYH/KDAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TOWARD THE SSW AFT
00Z...FURTHER AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND IN PLACE ALL
AREAS.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVERHEAD BY MONDAY. MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER
POOR THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PW/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011317
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
917 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AIR WEDGE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WEDGE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WITH SUNSHINE STARTING
TO PEEK OUT IN THE NC MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA PER LATEST VIS
SATELLITE AND WEATHER CAMS. TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ONCE LEADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ANOTHER
STRETCHED FROM FAR SW VA/SE KY NORTHEAST TO THE ALLEGHANYS. HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS TOO WELL...SLOWER THAN WHAT IS
GOING ON...THOUGH THE 00Z HIRES-ARW HAD A DECENT ENOUGH GRASP AT
12Z. WILL LEAN ON PERSISTENCE AND TRACKING THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ADDED SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...BUT OVERALL
AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH 18Z APPEARS TO BE UNDER AN INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CELLS AND LINES ARE TRANSIENT AND MOVING
FAST ENOUGH SO FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THE MOMENT.
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF CELLS OCCURS.

AS FAR AS SVR THREAT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLEARING...AS THE 6Z NAM
AND 00Z CMC ARE SHOWING CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AND
SW CWA. IF THIS OCCURS...WILL SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. BETTER SHEAR
STILL EXISTS OVER KY AND THINK THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN SHOULD
BE FROM CENTRAL KY TO FAR SW VA INTO SRN WV THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY DOWN ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS.

PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A VARIETY OF SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. TO START...A STRONG MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS TRACKING FROM THE TN VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. A STRONG WEDGE WAS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS NORTHEAST GA. RAIN
CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE WEDGE SERVES TO ENHANCE IT FURTHER.
BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHEN WILL THE WEDGE BREAK. MOST MODELS...INCLUDING
THE HRRR...INSIST THAT IT WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT NORTHEAST BY MID-
DAY...LEAVING THE AREA IN A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AND WARMER AIR MASS
BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALWAYS A BIG QUESTION IN THIS TYPE OF
SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEEN SIMILAR RECENT EVENTS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS...SO IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
ALOFT...SOME OF THE BEST FORCING PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
MID-DAY. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS LEFT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
FLOW...ONE WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY MON. MANY
QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE VERY LACK LUSTER WITH INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE WEDGE IN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
GFS IS ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM SHOWING AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER CONVECTION. SPC
HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE EXTREME E-NE PORTION IN A
MARGINAL RISK TODAY...NOTING AS I HAVE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER ALL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN A FEW RUMBLES
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BUT SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS A
BIG UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. MODEL MOISTURE/QPF FIELDS ARE
EXTREMELY NOISY...MURKY...AND RATHER NON-DESCRIPT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SPECIFICALLY FAVORED AREAS. CATEGORICAL TO DEFINITE POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR THE MORNING...WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON

TEMPERATURES TODAY ALSO AN UNCERTAINTY AND HINGE ON WHEN/IF THE
WEDGE BREAKS. AGAIN...THE GFS IS ON THE WARM END OF THE SPECTRUM
SHOWING WIDESPREAD MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 18Z. ECMWF IS
ON THE COOL END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST
OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKING IS NOT THAT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THIS IS AN INTENSE WEDGE...MORE SO THAN RECENT ONES.
HOWEVER...DO FEEL THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE IN EASTERN
SECTIONS WILL FINALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH
MINIMAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY SEE
MIN TEMPS MONDAY MORNING CLOSE TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY...AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THE CWA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS
FOR MONDAY REACH THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH WILL ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
ANY STRONGER STORMS MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
HOW FAR SOUTH IT CAN REACH BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY REMAINS A
LITTLE QUESTIONABLE. REGARDLESS...IT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS TIME.

SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STALLED FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD DIP FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
SUCCESSFULLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. THAT SITUATION SHOULD KEEP JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS NEARLY THE SAME COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GAINS ENOUGH ENERGY TO LIFT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF
OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO CUT
OFF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN CREATES ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UNITED STATES SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS WITNESSED BACK IN MID APRIL...WHICH BOTH THE LATEST
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR DUE TO BEING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WITH COOL AND WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK GRADUALLY WEAKENS...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BEGINS OVERHEAD. IT APPEARS THAT WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS COULD ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. NOT TOTALLY POSITIVE THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS INDICATE...BUT IT SHOULD AT LEAST
ERODE IN WESTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON. EQUALLY IN QUESTION IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ROBUST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. DEGREE OF WARMING/INSTABILITY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES. UPPER SUPPORT IS MINIMAL
DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. ANY UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AWAITING
THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR-LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
MORNING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...WITH LOCALLY MVFR-IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WEDGE
WILL COMPLETELY ERODE IN EASTERN AREAS VSBYS...WHICH COULD ALLOW
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO SEE IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER
06Z MON IN DENSE FOG.

WINDS MOSTLY E-SE 5-7KTS...BECOMING SW KBLF/KLWB THIS
MORNING...THEN SW ELSEWHERE AFT 18Z...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
7-10KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOR ANY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REACH
KLYH/KDAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TOWARD THE SSW AFT
00Z...FURTHER AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND IN PLACE ALL
AREAS.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVERHEAD BY MONDAY. MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER
POOR THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PW/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011211
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
811 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AIR WEDGE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A VARIETY OF SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. TO START...A STRONG MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS TRACKING FROM THE TN VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. A STRONG WEDGE WAS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS NORTHEAST GA. RAIN
CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE WEDGE SERVES TO ENHANCE IT FURTHER.
BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHEN WILL THE WEDGE BREAK. MOST MODELS...INCLUDING
THE HRR...INSIST THAT IT WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT NORTHEAST BY MID-
DAY...LEAVING THE AREA IN A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AND WARMER AIR MASS
BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALWAYS A BIG QUESTION IN THIS TYPE OF
SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEEN SIMILAR RECENT EVENTS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS...SO IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
ALOFT...SOME OF THE BEST FORCING PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
MID-DAY. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS LEFT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
FLOW...ONE WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY MON. MANY
QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE VERY LACK LUSTER WITH INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE WEDGE IN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
GFS IS ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM SHOWING AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER CONVECTION. SPC
HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE EXTREME E-NE PORTION IN A
MARGINAL RISK TODAY...NOTING AS I HAVE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER ALL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN A FEW RUMBLES
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BUT SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS A
BIG UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. MODEL MOISTURE/QPF FIELDS ARE
EXTREMELY NOISY...MURKY...AND RATHER NON-DESCRIPT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SPECIFICALLY FAVORED AREAS. CATEGORICAL TO DEFINITE POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR THE MORNING...WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON

TEMPERATURES TODAY ALSO AN UNCERTAINTY AND HINGENT ON WHEN/IF THE
WEDGE BREAKS. AGAIN...THE GFS IS ON THE WARM END OF THE SPECTRUM
SHOWING WIDESPREAD MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 18Z. ECMWF IS
ON THE COOL END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST
OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKING IS NOT THAT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THIS IS AN INTENSE WEDGE...MORE SO THAN RECENT ONES.
HOWEVER...DO FEEL THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE IN EASTERN
SECTIONS WILL FINALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH
MINIMAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY SEE
MIN TEMPS MONDAY MORNING CLOSE TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY...AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THE CWA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS
FOR MONDAY REACH THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH WILL ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
ANY STRONGER STORMS MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
HOW FAR SOUTH IT CAN REACH BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY REMAINS A
LITTLE QUESTIONABLE. REGARDLESS...IT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS TIME.

SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STALLED FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD DIP FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
SUCCESSFULLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. THAT SITUATION SHOULD KEEP JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS NEARLY THE SAME COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GAINS ENOUGH ENERGY TO LIFT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF
OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO CUT
OFF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN CREATES ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UNITED STATES SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS WITNESSED BACK IN MID APRIL...WHICH BOTH THE LATEST
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR DUE TO BEING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WITH COOL AND WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK GRADUALLY WEAKENS...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BEGINS OVERHEAD. IT APPEARS THAT WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS COULD ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. NOT TOTALLY POSITIVE THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS INDICATE...BUT IT SHOULD AT LEAST
ERODE IN WESTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON. EQUALLY IN QUESTION IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ROBUST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. DEGREE OF WARMING/INSTABILITY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES. UPPER SUPPORT IS MINIMAL
DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. ANY UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AWAITING
THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR-LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
MORNING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...WITH LOCALLY MVFR-IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WEDGE
WILL COMPLETELY ERODE IN EASTERN AREAS VSBYS...WHICH COULD ALLOW
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO SEE IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER
06Z MON IN DENSE FOG.

WINDS MOSTLY E-SE 5-7KTS...BECOMING SW KBLF/KLWB THIS
MORNING...THEN SW ELSEWHERE AFT 18Z...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
7-10KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOR ANY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REACH
KLYH/KDAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TOWARD THE SSW AFT
00Z...FURTHER AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND IN PLACE ALL
AREAS.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYBS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVERHEAD BY MONDAY. MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER
POOR THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PW/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010949
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
549 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AIR WEDGE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A VARIETY OF SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. TO START...A STRONG MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS TRACKING FROM THE TN VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. A STRONG WEDGE WAS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS NORTHEAST GA. RAIN
CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE WEDGE SERVES TO ENHANCE IT FURTHER.
BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHEN WILL THE WEDGE BREAK. MOST MODELS...INCLUDING
THE HRR...INSIST THAT IT WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT NORTHEAST BY MID-
DAY...LEAVING THE AREA IN A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AND WARMER AIR MASS
BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALWAYS A BIG QUESTION IN THIS TYPE OF
SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEEN SIMILAR RECENT EVENTS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS...SO IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
ALOFT...SOME OF THE BEST FORCING PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
MID-DAY. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS LEFT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
FLOW...ONE WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY MON. MANY
QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE VERY LACK LUSTER WITH INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE WEDGE IN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
GFS IS ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM SHOWING AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER CONVECTION. SPC
HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE EXTREME E-NE PORTION IN A
MARGINAL RISK TODAY...NOTING AS I HAVE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER ALL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN A FEW RUMBLES
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BUT SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS A
BIG UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. MODEL MOISTURE/QPF FIELDS ARE
EXTREMELY NOISY...MURKY...AND RATHER NON-DESCRIPT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SPECIFICALLY FAVORED AREAS. CATEGORICAL TO DEFINITE POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR THE MORNING...WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON

TEMPERATURES TODAY ALSO AN UNCERTAINTY AND HINGENT ON WHEN/IF THE
WEDGE BREAKS. AGAIN...THE GFS IS ON THE WARM END OF THE SPECTRUM
SHOWING WIDESPREAD MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 18Z. ECMWF IS
ON THE COOL END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST
OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKING IS NOT THAT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THIS IS AN INTENSE WEDGE...MORE SO THAN RECENT ONES.
HOWEVER...DO FEEL THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE IN EASTERN
SECTIONS WILL FINALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH
MINIMAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY SEE
MIN TEMPS MONDAY MORNING CLOSE TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY...AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THE CWA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS
FOR MONDAY REACH THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH WILL ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
ANY STRONGER STORMS MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
HOW FAR SOUTH IT CAN REACH BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY REMAINS A
LITTLE QUESTIONABLE. REGARDLESS...IT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS TIME.

SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STALLED FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD DIP FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
SUCCESSFULLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. THAT SITUATION SHOULD KEEP JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS NEARLY THE SAME COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GAINS ENOUGH ENERGY TO LIFT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF
OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO CUT
OFF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN CREATES ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UNITED STATES SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS WITNESSED BACK IN MID APRIL...WHICH BOTH THE LATEST
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR DUE TO BEING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WITH COOL AND WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK GRADUALLY WEAKENS...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BEGINS OVERHEAD. IT APPEARS THAT WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS COULD ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG COOL WEDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND KEEP CEILINGS AT LIFR/IFR WITH VISIBILITIES AT MVFR.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE MOMENTS WHERE THE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TEMPORARILY IMPROVE...THE OVERALL TREND SUGGESTS A
DETERIORATION OF FLYING CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE...AS MOISTURE KEEPS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
THAT COULD BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR ALL SITES DURING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ONGOING. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/IFR ONCE THE COOL
WEDGE BEGINS TO ERODE...ALTHOUGH KLYH MAY BE LAST TO BREAK OUT OF
THE WEDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST
OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PINPOINT WHICH
SITES WILL SEE THUNDER AT THIS MOMENT TO ADVERTISE IT IN THE TAFS.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CEASE AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVERHEAD BY MONDAY. MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER
POOR THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PW





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010949
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
549 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AIR WEDGE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A VARIETY OF SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. TO START...A STRONG MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS TRACKING FROM THE TN VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. A STRONG WEDGE WAS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS NORTHEAST GA. RAIN
CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE WEDGE SERVES TO ENHANCE IT FURTHER.
BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHEN WILL THE WEDGE BREAK. MOST MODELS...INCLUDING
THE HRR...INSIST THAT IT WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT NORTHEAST BY MID-
DAY...LEAVING THE AREA IN A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AND WARMER AIR MASS
BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALWAYS A BIG QUESTION IN THIS TYPE OF
SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEEN SIMILAR RECENT EVENTS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS...SO IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
ALOFT...SOME OF THE BEST FORCING PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
MID-DAY. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS LEFT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
FLOW...ONE WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY MON. MANY
QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE VERY LACK LUSTER WITH INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE WEDGE IN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
GFS IS ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM SHOWING AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER CONVECTION. SPC
HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE EXTREME E-NE PORTION IN A
MARGINAL RISK TODAY...NOTING AS I HAVE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER ALL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN A FEW RUMBLES
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BUT SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS A
BIG UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. MODEL MOISTURE/QPF FIELDS ARE
EXTREMELY NOISY...MURKY...AND RATHER NON-DESCRIPT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SPECIFICALLY FAVORED AREAS. CATEGORICAL TO DEFINITE POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR THE MORNING...WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON

TEMPERATURES TODAY ALSO AN UNCERTAINTY AND HINGENT ON WHEN/IF THE
WEDGE BREAKS. AGAIN...THE GFS IS ON THE WARM END OF THE SPECTRUM
SHOWING WIDESPREAD MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 18Z. ECMWF IS
ON THE COOL END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST
OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKING IS NOT THAT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THIS IS AN INTENSE WEDGE...MORE SO THAN RECENT ONES.
HOWEVER...DO FEEL THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE IN EASTERN
SECTIONS WILL FINALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH
MINIMAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY SEE
MIN TEMPS MONDAY MORNING CLOSE TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY...AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THE CWA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS
FOR MONDAY REACH THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH WILL ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
ANY STRONGER STORMS MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
HOW FAR SOUTH IT CAN REACH BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY REMAINS A
LITTLE QUESTIONABLE. REGARDLESS...IT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS TIME.

SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STALLED FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD DIP FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
SUCCESSFULLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. THAT SITUATION SHOULD KEEP JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS NEARLY THE SAME COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GAINS ENOUGH ENERGY TO LIFT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF
OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO CUT
OFF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN CREATES ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UNITED STATES SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS WITNESSED BACK IN MID APRIL...WHICH BOTH THE LATEST
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

UNLIKE THE LAST OMEGA BLOCK WHERE THE MID ATLANTIC ENJOYED
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...JUST THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR DUE TO BEING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WITH COOL AND WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK GRADUALLY WEAKENS...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BEGINS OVERHEAD. IT APPEARS THAT WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS COULD ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG COOL WEDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND KEEP CEILINGS AT LIFR/IFR WITH VISIBILITIES AT MVFR.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE MOMENTS WHERE THE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TEMPORARILY IMPROVE...THE OVERALL TREND SUGGESTS A
DETERIORATION OF FLYING CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE...AS MOISTURE KEEPS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
THAT COULD BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR ALL SITES DURING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ONGOING. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/IFR ONCE THE COOL
WEDGE BEGINS TO ERODE...ALTHOUGH KLYH MAY BE LAST TO BREAK OUT OF
THE WEDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST
OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PINPOINT WHICH
SITES WILL SEE THUNDER AT THIS MOMENT TO ADVERTISE IT IN THE TAFS.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CEASE AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVERHEAD BY MONDAY. MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER
POOR THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PW





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
THIS EVENING AS BACKING ALOFT OVER THE WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
PROGRESSIVELY WETTER SOUNDINGS PER PWATS NOW OVER AN INCH. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH THE EVENING RNK
RAOB SHOWING EASTERLY FLOW UP TO ABOVE 9H WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES
LITTLE EROSION UNTIL LATE AND MAINLY ACROSS THE SW PERIMETER. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BANDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH WITHIN MORE INSTABILITY...AND THEN RIDING OVER THE COOL
POOL IN ELEVATED FASHION OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE ISENTROPIC
LIFT NATURE LIGHT RAIN FARTHER NORTH. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE
RAMPING UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SOUTH GETS CLOSER AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES. APPEARS
COULD BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH/WEST AS WARMING ALOFT DEEPENS A BIT BUT
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

THUS WONT HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES ESPCLY GIVEN LIGHTER TOTALS SO
FAR AND LITTLE OUT EAST WHERE THE DEEPER WEDGE CONTINUES TO LIMIT
PRECIP. OTRW HAVE AGAIN TRENDED POPS LOWER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO INIT BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY NUDGES EAST. FOG ALSO REMAINS AN ISSUE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WITH RAIN INCREASING EXPECTING SOME
IMPROVEMENT FROM SW TO NE. THUS STAYING WITH THE GOING SPS FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITHOUT HEADLINES FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE MORE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH HAS COOLED MOST BACK INTO
THE CHILLY/DAMP LOW/MID 50S THIS EVENING.


UPDATE AS OF 620 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NW AND EXTREME SW SECTIONS...UPDATED TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SW PUSHES INTO/OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS ALSO CAUSED CLOUD BASES TO
LOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THIS TREND MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AS WARM
AIR ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WEDGE AND AIDED BY SATURATED LOW LEVELS
PER RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERING LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS
SINCE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VALUES TO FALL MUCH MORE AS RAINFALL INCREASES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD AS WE HEAD THRU THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT WE
START TO SEE MODELS EMPHASIZE STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING TO SEE IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRAINS ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...AM KEEPING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TO
SUNDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
MODELS FAVOR QUICKER EROSION OF THE WEDGE. WILL BE SLOWER...THEN
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA. QUESTION WILL BE IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL
BE IN WV/FAR SW VA AND ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT THINK CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH FLOW TURNING SSW BY AFTERNOON WENT CLOSE TO MOS ON HIGHS...BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER IN LYH TO HSP. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST AS COOLING IS MODEST BEHIND IT..H85 TEMPS
DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY LEAVING ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THE SAME FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY
ALONG COAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY STRENGTH
OF PERTURBATIONS ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER CMC OR ECMWF RUNS WHICH BOTH BRING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND RETAINING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY BUT STILL
LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SHARPLY.BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH EXACT POSITION UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO
HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME. 00Z EURO IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COMPLEX SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS MERGING
WITH THE EXISTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY BACKING IN TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GFS/CMC NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND DEEP WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SEEMS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE BUT WENT WITH BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG COOL WEDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND KEEP CEILINGS AT LIFR/IFR WITH VISIBILITIES AT MVFR.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE MOMENTS WHERE THE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TEMPORARILY IMPROVE...THE OVERALL TREND SUGGESTS A
DETERIORATION OF FLYING CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE...AS MOISTURE KEEPS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
THAT COULD BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR ALL SITES DURING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ONGOING. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/IFR ONCE THE COOL
WEDGE BEGINS TO ERODE...ALTHOUGH KLYH MAY BE LAST TO BREAK OUT OF
THE WEDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST
OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PINPOINT WHICH
SITES WILL SEE THUNDER AT THIS MOMENT TO ADVERTISE IT IN THE TAFS.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CEASE AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVERHEAD BY MONDAY. MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER
POOR THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...PW





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
THIS EVENING AS BACKING ALOFT OVER THE WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
PROGRESSIVELY WETTER SOUNDINGS PER PWATS NOW OVER AN INCH. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH THE EVENING RNK
RAOB SHOWING EASTERLY FLOW UP TO ABOVE 9H WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES
LITTLE EROSION UNTIL LATE AND MAINLY ACROSS THE SW PERIMETER. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BANDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH WITHIN MORE INSTABILITY...AND THEN RIDING OVER THE COOL
POOL IN ELEVATED FASHION OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE ISENTROPIC
LIFT NATURE LIGHT RAIN FARTHER NORTH. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE
RAMPING UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SOUTH GETS CLOSER AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES. APPEARS
COULD BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH/WEST AS WARMING ALOFT DEEPENS A BIT BUT
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

THUS WONT HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES ESPCLY GIVEN LIGHTER TOTALS SO
FAR AND LITTLE OUT EAST WHERE THE DEEPER WEDGE CONTINUES TO LIMIT
PRECIP. OTRW HAVE AGAIN TRENDED POPS LOWER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO INIT BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY NUDGES EAST. FOG ALSO REMAINS AN ISSUE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WITH RAIN INCREASING EXPECTING SOME
IMPROVEMENT FROM SW TO NE. THUS STAYING WITH THE GOING SPS FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITHOUT HEADLINES FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE MORE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH HAS COOLED MOST BACK INTO
THE CHILLY/DAMP LOW/MID 50S THIS EVENING.


UPDATE AS OF 620 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NW AND EXTREME SW SECTIONS...UPDATED TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SW PUSHES INTO/OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS ALSO CAUSED CLOUD BASES TO
LOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THIS TREND MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AS WARM
AIR ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WEDGE AND AIDED BY SATURATED LOW LEVELS
PER RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERING LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS
SINCE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VALUES TO FALL MUCH MORE AS RAINFALL INCREASES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD AS WE HEAD THRU THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT WE
START TO SEE MODELS EMPHASIZE STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING TO SEE IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRAINS ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...AM KEEPING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TO
SUNDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
MODELS FAVOR QUICKER EROSION OF THE WEDGE. WILL BE SLOWER...THEN
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA. QUESTION WILL BE IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL
BE IN WV/FAR SW VA AND ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT THINK CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH FLOW TURNING SSW BY AFTERNOON WENT CLOSE TO MOS ON HIGHS...BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER IN LYH TO HSP. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST AS COOLING IS MODEST BEHIND IT..H85 TEMPS
DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY LEAVING ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THE SAME FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY
ALONG COAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY STRENGTH
OF PERTURBATIONS ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER CMC OR ECMWF RUNS WHICH BOTH BRING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND RETAINING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY BUT STILL
LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SHARPLY.BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH EXACT POSITION UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO
HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME. 00Z EURO IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COMPLEX SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS MERGING
WITH THE EXISTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY BACKING IN TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GFS/CMC NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND DEEP WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SEEMS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE BUT WENT WITH BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG COOL WEDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND KEEP CEILINGS AT LIFR/IFR WITH VISIBILITIES AT MVFR.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE MOMENTS WHERE THE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TEMPORARILY IMPROVE...THE OVERALL TREND SUGGESTS A
DETERIORATION OF FLYING CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE...AS MOISTURE KEEPS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
THAT COULD BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR ALL SITES DURING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ONGOING. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/IFR ONCE THE COOL
WEDGE BEGINS TO ERODE...ALTHOUGH KLYH MAY BE LAST TO BREAK OUT OF
THE WEDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST
OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PINPOINT WHICH
SITES WILL SEE THUNDER AT THIS MOMENT TO ADVERTISE IT IN THE TAFS.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CEASE AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVERHEAD BY MONDAY. MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER
POOR THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...PW





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010102
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
902 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
THIS EVENING AS BACKING ALOFT OVER THE WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
PROGRESSIVELY WETTER SOUNDINGS PER PWATS NOW OVER AN INCH. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH THE EVENING RNK
RAOB SHOWING EASTERLY FLOW UP TO ABOVE 9H WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES
LITTLE EROSION UNTIL LATE AND MAINLY ACROSS THE SW PERIMETER. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BANDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH WITHIN MORE INSTABILITY...AND THEN RIDING OVER THE COOL
POOL IN ELEVATED FASHION OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE ISENTROPIC
LIFT NATURE LIGHT RAIN FARTHER NORTH. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE
RAMPING UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SOUTH GETS CLOSER AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES. APPEARS
COULD BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH/WEST AS WARMING ALOFT DEEPENS A BIT BUT
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

THUS WONT HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES ESPCLY GIVEN LIGHTER TOTALS SO
FAR AND LITTLE OUT EAST WHERE THE DEEPER WEDGE CONTINUES TO LIMIT
PRECIP. OTRW HAVE AGAIN TRENDED POPS LOWER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO INIT BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY NUDGES EAST. FOG ALSO REMAINS AN ISSUE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WITH RAIN INCREASING EXPECTING SOME
IMPROVEMENT FROM SW TO NE. THUS STAYING WITH THE GOING SPS FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITHOUT HEADLINES FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE MORE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH HAS COOLED MOST BACK INTO
THE CHILLY/DAMP LOW/MID 50S THIS EVENING.


UPDATE AS OF 620 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NW AND EXTREME SW SECTIONS...UPDATED TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SW PUSHES INTO/OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS ALSO CAUSED CLOUD BASES TO
LOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THIS TREND MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AS WARM
AIR ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WEDGE AND AIDED BY SATURATED LOW LEVELS
PER RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERING LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS
SINCE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VALUES TO FALL MUCH MORE AS RAINFALL INCREASES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD AS WE HEAD THRU THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT WE
START TO SEE MODELS EMPHASIZE STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING TO SEE IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRAINS ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...AM KEEPING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TO
SUNDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
MODELS FAVOR QUICKER EROSION OF THE WEDGE. WILL BE SLOWER...THEN
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA. QUESTION WILL BE IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL
BE IN WV/FAR SW VA AND ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT THINK CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH FLOW TURNING SSW BY AFTERNOON WENT CLOSE TO MOS ON HIGHS...BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER IN LYH TO HSP. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST AS COOLING IS MODEST BEHIND IT..H85 TEMPS
DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY LEAVING ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THE SAME FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY
ALONG COAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY STRENGTH
OF PERTURBATIONS ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER CMC OR ECMWF RUNS WHICH BOTH BRING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND RETAINING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY BUT STILL
LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SHARPLY.BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH EXACT POSITION UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO
HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME. 00Z EURO IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COMPLEX SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS MERGING
WITH THE EXISTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY BACKING IN TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GFS/CMC NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND DEEP WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SEEMS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE BUT WENT WITH BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG WITHIN THESE WINDS. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH COVERAGE GREATEST IN THE WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
INTO THE LIFR/IFR RANGE WITH VSBYS MAINLY IFR/MVFR. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE WEDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPROVEMENTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN THE WEST BY THE LATE MORNING.

CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
ERODES. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-
TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 302343
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
743 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NW AND EXTREME SW SECTIONS...UPDATED TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SW PUSHES INTO/OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS ALSO CAUSED CLOUD BASES TO
LOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THIS TREND MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AS WARM
AIR ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WEDGE AND AIDED BY SATURATED LOW LEVELS
PER RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERING LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS
SINCE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VALUES TO FALL MUCH MORE AS RAINFALL INCREASES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD AS WE HEAD THRU THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT WE
START TO SEE MODELS EMPHASIZE STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING TO SEE IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRAINS ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...AM KEEPING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TO
SUNDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
MODELS FAVOR QUICKER EROSION OF THE WEDGE. WILL BE SLOWER...THEN
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA. QUESTION WILL BE IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL
BE IN WV/FAR SW VA AND ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT THINK CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH FLOW TURNING SSW BY AFTERNOON WENT CLOSE TO MOS ON HIGHS...BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER IN LYH TO HSP. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST AS COOLING IS MODEST BEHIND IT..H85 TEMPS
DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY LEAVING ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THE SAME FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY
ALONG COAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY STRENGTH
OF PERTURBATIONS ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER CMC OR ECMWF RUNS WHICH BOTH BRING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND RETAINING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY BUT STILL
LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SHARPLY.BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH EXACT POSITION UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO
HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME. 00Z EURO IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COMPLEX SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS MERGING
WITH THE EXISTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY BACKING IN TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GFS/CMC NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND DEEP WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SEEMS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE BUT WENT WITH BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG WITHIN THESE WINDS. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH COVERAGE GREATEST IN THE WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
INTO THE LIFR/IFR RANGE WITH VSBYS MAINLY IFR/MVFR. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE WEDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPROVEMENTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN THE WEST BY THE LATE MORNING.

CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
ERODES. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-
TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 302227 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
627 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NW AND EXTREME SW SECTIONS...UPDATED TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SW PUSHES INTO/OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS ALSO CAUSED CLOUD BASES TO
LOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THIS TREND MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AS WARM
AIR ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WEDGE AND AIDED BY SATURATED LOW LEVELS
PER RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERING LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS
SINCE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VALUES TO FALL MUCH MORE AS RAINFALL INCREASES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD AS WE HEAD THRU THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT WE
START TO SEE MODELS EMPHASIZE STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING TO SEE IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRAINS ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...AM KEEPING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TO
SUNDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
MODELS FAVOR QUICKER EROSION OF THE WEDGE. WILL BE SLOWER...THEN
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA. QUESTION WILL BE IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL
BE IN WV/FAR SW VA AND ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT THINK CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH FLOW TURNING SSW BY AFTERNOON WENT CLOSE TO MOS ON HIGHS...BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER IN LYH TO HSP. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST AS COOLING IS MODEST BEHIND IT..H85 TEMPS
DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY LEAVING ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THE SAME FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY
ALONG COAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY STRENGTH
OF PERTURBATIONS ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER CMC OR ECMWF RUNS WHICH BOTH BRING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND RETAINING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY BUT STILL
LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SHARPLY.BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH EXACT POSITION UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO
HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME. 00Z EURO IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COMPLEX SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS MERGING
WITH THE EXISTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY BACKING IN TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GFS/CMC NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND DEEP WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SEEMS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE BUT WENT WITH BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SFC WEDGE SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...ERODING
FROM BLF-LWB BY 120-14Z SUNDAY AND MAYBE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CIGS WILL
STICK AROUND DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. QUESTION WILL BE VSBYS
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AT
TIMES....WHILE CIGS STAY IFR OR WORSE...EXCEPT EARLY ON AT
BLF/LWB.

RAIN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE STEADY OVERNIGHT AND COULD BE MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE BLF/LWB AREA. NOT SEEING ANY THUNDER
RIGHT THRU 18Z SUNDAY. WILL BRING CIGS ABOVE 1KFT AT 10-12Z WEST
TO 16Z EAST.

BACKED OFF ON WINDS IN THE EAST AS DO NOT SEE MUCH GRADIENT FOR
GUSTS THIS EVENING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
ERODES. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY
PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RAB/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301948
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD AS WE HEAD THRU THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT WE
START TO SEE MODELS EMPHASIZE STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING TO SEE IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRAINS ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...AM KEEPING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TO
SUNDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
MODELS FAVOR QUICKER EROSION OF THE WEDGE. WILL BE SLOWER...THEN
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA. QUESTION WILL BE IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL
BE IN WV/FAR SW VA AND ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT THINK CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH FLOW TURNING SSW BY AFTERNOON WENT CLOSE TO MOS ON HIGHS...BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER IN LYH TO HSP. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST AS COOLING IS MODEST BEHIND IT..H85 TEMPS
DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY LEAVING ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THE SAME FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY
ALONG COAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY STRENGTH
OF PERTURBATIONS ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER CMC OR ECMWF RUNS WHICH BOTH BRING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND RETAINING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY BUT STILL
LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SHARPLY.BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH EXACT POSITION UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO
HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME. 00Z EURO IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COMPLEX SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS MERGING
WITH THE EXISTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY BACKING IN TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GFS/CMC NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND DEEP WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SEEMS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE BUT WENT WITH BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SFC WEDGE SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...ERODING
FROM BLF-LWB BY 120-14Z SUNDAY AND MAYBE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CIGS WILL
STICK AROUND DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. QUESTION WILL BE VSBYS
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AT
TIMES....WHILE CIGS STAY IFR OR WORSE...EXCEPT EARLY ON AT
BLF/LWB.

RAIN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE STEADY OVERNIGHT AND COULD BE MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE BLF/LWB AREA. NOT SEEING ANY THUNDER
RIGHT THRU 18Z SUNDAY. WILL BRING CIGS ABOVE 1KFT AT 10-12Z WEST
TO 16Z EAST.

BACKED OFF ON WINDS IN THE EAST AS DO NOT SEE MUCH GRADIENT FOR
GUSTS THIS EVENING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
ERODES. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY
PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RAB/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1237 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF HIGHER POPS WITH RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
MOISTURE OVER KY/TN MOVING NE. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
RAIN ONSET AS WELL. WILL STILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING TOTHE
MOUNTAINS BY 5PM...BUT NOT MUCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL THIS
EVENING. TOOK OUT THUNDER AS MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER WITH WEDGE
WILL KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO
SW VA/NW NC BY 9PM.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL
TO THE AREA AFT 00Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM ABOUT
1 INCH WESTERN AREAS TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. SPC HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS FOR DAY 1. AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY SEVERE IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z SUN AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITHIN THE WEDGE AREA. SOME
CONCERN NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE AFT 00Z...LIKELY ENDING UP ONLY A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MERCER/TAZEWELL/SMYTH COUNTY REGION...BUT SHOULD BE FAR BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A BROAD EASTERN
TROF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP SYSTEMS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE
THE WEDGE ALONG THE COAST A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK SO LONG AS THE WEDGE EXITS ON
SCHEDULE. THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING WELL OVER ONE INCH AND TRAINING
OF STORMS MAY CREATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES. AS THE FRONT SINKS TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE
RAINFALL...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEVELOP A WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BACK TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING A FOCUSED SET OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WAVES WILL DRAG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE ON BEST TIMING/LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE
PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SFC WEDGE SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...ERODING
FROM BLF-LWB BY 120-14Z SUNDAY AND MAYBE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CIGS WILL
STICK AROUND DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. QUESTION WILL BE VSBYS
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AT
TIMES....WHILE CIGS STAY IFR OR WORSE...EXCEPT EARLY ON AT
BLF/LWB.

RAIN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE STEADY OVERNIGHT AND COULD BE MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE BLF/LWB AREA. NOT SEEING ANY THUNDER
RIGHT THRU 18Z SUNDAY. WILL BRING CIGS ABOVE 1KFT AT 10-12Z WEST
TO 16Z EAST.

BACKED OFF ON WINDS IN THE EAST AS DO NOT SEE MUCH GRADIENT FOR
GUSTS THIS EVENING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
ERODES. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY
PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...RAB/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301650
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1250 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1237 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF HIGHER POPS WITH RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
MOISTURE OVER KY/TN MOVING NE. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
RAIN ONSET AS WELL. WILL STILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MOVINGTO
THE MOUNTAINS BY 5PM...BUT NOT MUCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. TOOK OUT THUNDER AS MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER WITH
WEDGE WILL KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
INTO SW VA/NW NC BY 9PM.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL
TO THE AREA AFT 00Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM ABOUT
1 INCH WESTERN AREAS TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. SPC HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS FOR DAY 1. AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY SEVERE IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z SUN AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITHIN THE WEDGE AREA. SOME
CONCERN NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE AFT 00Z...LIKELY ENDING UP ONLY A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MERCER/TAZEWELL/SMYTH COUNTY REGION...BUT SHOULD BE FAR BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A BROAD EASTERN
TROF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP SYSTEMS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE
THE WEDGE ALONG THE COAST A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK SO LONG AS THE WEDGE EXITS ON
SCHEDULE. THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING WELL OVER ONE INCH AND TRAINING
OF STORMS MAY CREATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES. AS THE FRONT SINKS TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE
RAINFALL...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEVELOP A WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BACK TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING A FOCUSED SET OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WAVES WILL DRAG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE ON BEST TIMING/LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE
PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF LINE.
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO
CIGS AOB 010 ROA/DAN/LYH...EVEN WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB005 BEHIND THE
WEDGE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...-DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. -DZ HAS ALREADY BEEN
NOTED AT BCB AND SOME COOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REPORTING -DZ
THIS MORNING. BONAFIDE -RA OR -SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY
THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 06Z. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED CONVECTION
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WEDGE...HAVE
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL COME SUN AFTERNOON.

CIGS STILL VFR AT KBLF/KLWB...BUT HAVE DROPPED AOB 010 ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND KBLF AND KLWB
SHOULD TREND IFR-LIFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS WELL. SOME VSBYS
NOW IN THE IFR RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS AFT 15Z. MOSTLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WEST OF THE WEDGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST
6-9KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
7-10KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING KBLF VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES...SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301154
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WARM FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK. EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT FIRST WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. T/TD READINGS BASICALLY ON
TRACK. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD WEST TO THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...AND WILL REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA BY MID-LATE
MORNING.

AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
010 ROA/DAN/LYH...AND WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BCB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY
THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME...LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
VA/TN...NC/TN BORDER BY EVENING. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...A PERSISTENT
BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S...AND WILL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE EMANATING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL TO THE AREA AFT 00Z...POTENTIALLY ARRIVING IN WESTERN
AREAS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWEST OF A BLF-MKJ-UKF LINE. WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM ABOUT 1-1.25 INCH WESTERN AREAS TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SPC HAS INDICATED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS FOR DAY 1. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SEVERE IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z
SUN AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITHIN THE
WEDGE AREA. SOME CONCERN NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT FEEL THAT
WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

HAVE REFLECTED THE COOL AIR WEDGE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS...WHICH
THE MET MOS REFLECTED BEST. THE ECMWF WAS TOO WARM AND NOT
PROPERLY REFLECTING THE WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE AFT
00Z...LIKELY ENDING UP ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MERCER/TAZEWELL/SMYTH COUNTY REGION...BUT SHOULD BE FAR BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A BROAD EASTERN
TROF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP SYSTEMS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE
THE WEDGE ALONG THE COAST A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK SO LONG AS THE WEDGE EXITS ON
SCHEDULE. THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING WELL OVER ONE INCH AND TRAINING
OF STORMS MAY CREATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES. AS THE FRONT SINKS TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE
RAINFALL...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEVELOP A WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BACK TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING A FOCUSED SET OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WAVES WILL DRAG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE ON BEST TIMING/LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE
PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF LINE.
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO
CIGS AOB 010 ROA/DAN/LYH...EVEN WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB005 BEHIND THE
WEDGE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...-DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. -DZ HAS ALREADY BEEN
NOTED AT BCB AND SOME COOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REPORTING -DZ
THIS MORNING. BONAFIDE -RA OR -SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY
THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 06Z. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED CONVECTION
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WEDGE...HAVE
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL COME SUN AFTERNOON.

CIGS STILL VFR AT KBLF/KLWB...BUT HAVE DROPPED AOB 010 ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND KBLF AND KLWB
SHOULD TREND IFR-LIFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS WELL. SOME VSBYS
NOW IN THE IFR RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS AFT 15Z. MOSTLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WEST OF THE WEDGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST
6-9KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
7-10KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING KBLF VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES...SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301154
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WARM FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK. EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT FIRST WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. T/TD READINGS BASICALLY ON
TRACK. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD WEST TO THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...AND WILL REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA BY MID-LATE
MORNING.

AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
010 ROA/DAN/LYH...AND WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BCB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY
THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME...LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
VA/TN...NC/TN BORDER BY EVENING. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...A PERSISTENT
BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S...AND WILL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE EMANATING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL TO THE AREA AFT 00Z...POTENTIALLY ARRIVING IN WESTERN
AREAS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWEST OF A BLF-MKJ-UKF LINE. WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM ABOUT 1-1.25 INCH WESTERN AREAS TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SPC HAS INDICATED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS FOR DAY 1. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SEVERE IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z
SUN AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITHIN THE
WEDGE AREA. SOME CONCERN NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT FEEL THAT
WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

HAVE REFLECTED THE COOL AIR WEDGE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS...WHICH
THE MET MOS REFLECTED BEST. THE ECMWF WAS TOO WARM AND NOT
PROPERLY REFLECTING THE WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE AFT
00Z...LIKELY ENDING UP ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MERCER/TAZEWELL/SMYTH COUNTY REGION...BUT SHOULD BE FAR BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A BROAD EASTERN
TROF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP SYSTEMS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE
THE WEDGE ALONG THE COAST A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK SO LONG AS THE WEDGE EXITS ON
SCHEDULE. THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING WELL OVER ONE INCH AND TRAINING
OF STORMS MAY CREATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES. AS THE FRONT SINKS TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE
RAINFALL...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEVELOP A WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BACK TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING A FOCUSED SET OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WAVES WILL DRAG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE ON BEST TIMING/LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE
PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF LINE.
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO
CIGS AOB 010 ROA/DAN/LYH...EVEN WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB005 BEHIND THE
WEDGE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...-DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. -DZ HAS ALREADY BEEN
NOTED AT BCB AND SOME COOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REPORTING -DZ
THIS MORNING. BONAFIDE -RA OR -SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY
THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 06Z. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED CONVECTION
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WEDGE...HAVE
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL COME SUN AFTERNOON.

CIGS STILL VFR AT KBLF/KLWB...BUT HAVE DROPPED AOB 010 ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND KBLF AND KLWB
SHOULD TREND IFR-LIFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS WELL. SOME VSBYS
NOW IN THE IFR RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS AFT 15Z. MOSTLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WEST OF THE WEDGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST
6-9KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
7-10KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING KBLF VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES...SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300835
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
435 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WARM FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK. EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
010 ROA/DAN/LYH...AND WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BCB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY
THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME...LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
VA/TN...NC/TN BORDER BY EVENING. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...A PERSISTENT
BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S...AND WILL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE EMANATING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL TO THE AREA AFT 00Z...POTENTIALLY ARRIVING IN WESTERN
AREAS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWEST OF A BLF-MKJ-UKF LINE. WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM ABOUT 1-1.25 INCH WESTERN AREAS TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SPC HAS INDICATED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS FOR DAY 1. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SEVERE IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z
SUN AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITHIN THE
WEDGE AREA. SOME CONCERN NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT FEEL THAT
WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

HAVE REFLECTED THE COOL AIR WEDGE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS...WHICH
THE MET MOS REFLECTED BEST. THE ECMWF WAS TOO WARM AND NOT
PROPERLY REFLECTING THE WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE AFT
00Z...LIKELY ENDING UP ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MERCER/TAZEWELL/SMYTH COUNTY REGION...BUT SHOULD BE FAR BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A BROAD EASTERN
TROF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP SYSTEMS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE
THE WEDGE ALONG THE COAST A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK SO LONG AS THE WEDGE EXITS ON
SCHEDULE. THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING WELL OVER ONE INCH AND TRAINING
OF STORMS MAY CREATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES. AS THE FRONT SINKS TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE
RAINFALL...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEVELOP A WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BACK TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING A FOCUSED SET OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WAVES WILL DRAG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE ON BEST TIMING/LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE
PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-ROA-MWK. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
100 ROA/DAN/LYH. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE
DEEPENS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE
SHALLOW WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE
AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. BONAFIDE -RA OR
-SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD
THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFT 00Z.

CIGS STILL VFR AT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. GIVEN THAT KROA IS ALREADY
LIFR...WOULD EXPECT KBCB TO TREND THAT WAY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS. SHOULD TAKE UNTIL 08Z-10Z TO REACH KLWB...AND PROBABLY
12Z-13Z FOR KBLF. ONE THE WEDGE EVOLVES THE REGION FROM THE
EAST...EXPECT IFR-LIFR CIGS TO HOLD UNTIL 18Z OR SO...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY LOW END MVFR. VSBYS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT POSSIBLY KBLF...WHICH SHOULD HOLD ONTO VFR UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. -DZ SHOULD EVOLVE IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE/ALLEGHANY FRONT BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING...THEN -RA OR-SHRA
BY 18Z AND BEYOND AS NOTED ABOVE. STILL DO NOT FORESEE MUCH WORSE
THAN MVFR VSBYS THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WEST OF THE WEDGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST
6-9KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
7-10KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING KBLF VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES...SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300620
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
220 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-ROA-MWK. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
100 ROA/DAN/LYH. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE
DEEPENS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE
SHALLOW WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE
AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. BONAFIDE -RA OR
-SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD
THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFT 00Z.

T/TD GRIDS GENERALLY ON TARGET THIS HOUR. ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT...THEN WENT ALONG WITH ADVERTISED LIKELY POPS BY 15Z
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EITHER HIGH OR
LOW CLOUDS ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE REGION THIS HOUR...SO HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDS TOWARD 100 PERCENT FROM THIS POINT FORWARD IN
TIME.

AS OF 845 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SQUEEZE PLAY OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE PERSISTENT FAR EASTERN WEDGE OOZES BACK TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE WHILE MID/HIGH CANOPY INCREASES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
RETURN WARM ADVECTION TO THE SW. LATEST NAM ALSO QUITE MOIST WITH
THE WEDGE ENHANCING OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM OTHER SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF TRAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ESPCLY NE. THEREFORE BEEFED
UP CLOUDS AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BACK WEST TO NEAR
ROANOKE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MAIN ASPECT WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE WITH DEEPENING CLOUD CANOPY ALTHOUGH
APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT ESPCLY GIVEN
THE UPSTREAM MCS DIVING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR ABOUT THE
ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY RAINFALL OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT
APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN ONLY WEAK FORECAST SOUTH/SE FLOW AND LITTLE
SUPPORT ALOFT UNTIL SATURDAY. THUS WILL KEEP TREND OF BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE...WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW COOLER 40S WESTERN VALLEYS
IF CLOUDS STAY THIN LONGER.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-ROA-MWK. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
100 ROA/DAN/LYH. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE
DEEPENS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE
SHALLOW WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE
AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. BONAFIDE -RA OR
-SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD
THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFT 00Z.

CIGS STILL VFR AT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. GIVEN THAT KROA IS ALREADY
LIFR...WOULD EXPECT KBCB TO TREND THAT WAY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS. SHOULD TAKE UNTIL 08Z-10Z TO REACH KLWB...AND PROBABLY
12Z-13Z FOR KBLF. ONE THE WEDGE EVOLVES THE REGION FROM THE
EAST...EXPECT IFR-LIFR CIGS TO HOLD UNTIL 18Z OR SO...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY LOW END MVFR. VSBYS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT POSSIBLY KBLF...WHICH SHOULD HOLD ONTO VFR UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. -DZ SHOULD EVOLVE IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE/ALLEGHANY FRONT BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING...THEN -RA OR-SHRA
BY 18Z AND BEYOND AS NOTED ABOVE. STILL DO NOT FORESEE MUCH WORSE
THAN MVFR VSBYS THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WEST OF THE WEDGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST
6-9KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
7-10KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING KBLF VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES...SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/RAB/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300111
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SQUEEZE PLAY OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE PERSISTENT FAR EASTERN WEDGE OOZES BACK TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE WHILE MID/HIGH CANOPY INCREASES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
RETURN WARM ADVECTION TO THE SW. LATEST NAM ALSO QUITE MOIST WITH
THE WEDGE ENHANCING OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM OTHER SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF TRAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ESPCLY NE. THEREFORE BEEFED
UP CLOUDS AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BACK WEST TO NEAR
ROANOKE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MAIN ASPECT WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE WITH DEEPENING CLOUD CANOPY ALTHOUGH
APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT ESPCLY GIVEN
THE UPSTREAM MCS DIVING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR ABOUT THE
ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY RAINFALL OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT
APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN ONLY WEAK FORECAST SOUTH/SE FLOW AND LITTLE
SUPPORT ALOFT UNTIL SATURDAY. THUS WILL KEEP TREND OF BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE...WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW COOLER 40S WESTERN VALLEYS
IF CLOUDS STAY THIN LONGER.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VRF CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE REGION OF VIRGINIA NORTH...AROUND...AND EAST OF
KLYH. MVFR CIGS ARE CONTINUING IN THIS AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ALL VISIBILITIES ARE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VSBYS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME INROADS WESTWARD INTO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. KBLF AND KLWB
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH AN AREA OF VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE.

THIS ALL WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS MOISTURE LEVELS PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WEDGE HOLDING FAST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY BY MID-DAY BETWEEN
KBLF-KLWB...OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. LIMITED IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS. WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KBLF TAF AT THIS
POINT...INSTABILITY MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH IN THIS REGION FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL
STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300111
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SQUEEZE PLAY OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE PERSISTENT FAR EASTERN WEDGE OOZES BACK TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE WHILE MID/HIGH CANOPY INCREASES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
RETURN WARM ADVECTION TO THE SW. LATEST NAM ALSO QUITE MOIST WITH
THE WEDGE ENHANCING OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM OTHER SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF TRAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ESPCLY NE. THEREFORE BEEFED
UP CLOUDS AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BACK WEST TO NEAR
ROANOKE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MAIN ASPECT WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE WITH DEEPENING CLOUD CANOPY ALTHOUGH
APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT ESPCLY GIVEN
THE UPSTREAM MCS DIVING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR ABOUT THE
ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY RAINFALL OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT
APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN ONLY WEAK FORECAST SOUTH/SE FLOW AND LITTLE
SUPPORT ALOFT UNTIL SATURDAY. THUS WILL KEEP TREND OF BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE...WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW COOLER 40S WESTERN VALLEYS
IF CLOUDS STAY THIN LONGER.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VRF CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE REGION OF VIRGINIA NORTH...AROUND...AND EAST OF
KLYH. MVFR CIGS ARE CONTINUING IN THIS AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ALL VISIBILITIES ARE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VSBYS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME INROADS WESTWARD INTO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. KBLF AND KLWB
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH AN AREA OF VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE.

THIS ALL WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS MOISTURE LEVELS PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WEDGE HOLDING FAST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY BY MID-DAY BETWEEN
KBLF-KLWB...OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. LIMITED IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS. WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KBLF TAF AT THIS
POINT...INSTABILITY MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH IN THIS REGION FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL
STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292347
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VRF CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE REGION OF VIRGINIA NORTH...AROUND...AND EAST OF
KLYH. MVFR CIGS ARE CONTINUING IN THIS AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ALL VISIBILITIES ARE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VSBYS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME INROADS WESTWARD INTO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. KBLF AND KLWB
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH AN AREA OF VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE.

THIS ALL WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS MOISTURE LEVELS PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WEDGE HOLDING FAST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY BY MID-DAY BETWEEN
KBLF-KLWB...OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. LIMITED IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS. WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KBLF TAF AT THIS
POINT...INSTABILITY MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH IN THIS REGION FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL
STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292347
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VRF CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE REGION OF VIRGINIA NORTH...AROUND...AND EAST OF
KLYH. MVFR CIGS ARE CONTINUING IN THIS AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ALL VISIBILITIES ARE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VSBYS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME INROADS WESTWARD INTO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. KBLF AND KLWB
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH AN AREA OF VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE.

THIS ALL WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS MOISTURE LEVELS PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WEDGE HOLDING FAST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY BY MID-DAY BETWEEN
KBLF-KLWB...OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. LIMITED IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS. WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KBLF TAF AT THIS
POINT...INSTABILITY MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH IN THIS REGION FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL
STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291930
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED
AT LYH...THOUGH LEFT IN A TEMPO FOR ANOTHER HOUR FOR MVFR BKN
CIGS.

LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST...WESTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCELERATE FROM EAST TO
WEST WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH
WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG INTO THE EAST...WITH FOG
POSSIBLE FROM BCB WEST...EXCEPT BLF. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT THE FOG WILL BECOME LESS AN ISSUE BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE HOLDING STEADY FROM BCB/ROA EAST WITH DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BY
11-15Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO UNDER 1KFT AT ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF A
WV/VA BORDER LINE...THIS INCLUDES BCB/ROA.

WILL START TO SEE LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE SAT MORNING
IN THE BLF/LWB AREA WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR...THOUGH KEEPING
VSBYS AT 6SM OR MORE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN LOWER CIGS FROM ROA EAST TONIGHT
AND MEDIUM FOG BCB.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291729
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL RESIDE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SAY STRETCHED FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EAST TO
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS TIME. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT FRIDAY...

OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS SHALLOW ENOUGH WITH ANY LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT TO KEEP US DRY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING IN THE EAST WITH ITS WEDGE
ERODING TO AT LEAST THE LYNCHBURG AREA. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
SHOULD BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF SUNSHINE POKING THROUGH FROM TIME TO
TIME. FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RUNNING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST...EXCEPT MID 60S TO LOWER
70S FROM AMHERST TO LYNCHBURG EAST AND NORTHEAST TO BUCKINGHAM.

WITH A DRIER LOOK IN THE NEAR TERM...DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

HAVE LEFT A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING DURING THE PERIOD TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROF REGIME. THIS WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
AND OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO
CREATE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL
OVER ONE INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET
SPELL. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
IN NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WEDGE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST.
HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED
AT LYH...THOUGH LEFT IN A TEMPO FOR ANOTHER HOUR FOR MVFR BKN
CIGS.

LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST...WESTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCELERATE FROM EAST TO
WEST WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH
WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG INTO THE EAST...WITH FOG
POSSIBLE FROM BCB WEST...EXCEPT BLF. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT THE FOG WILL BECOME LESS AN ISSUE BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE HOLDING STEADY FROM BCB/ROA EAST WITH DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BY
11-15Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO UNDER 1KFT AT ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF A
WV/VA BORDER LINE...THIS INCLUDES BCB/ROA.

WILL START TO SEE LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE SAT MORNING
IN THE BLF/LWB AREA WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR...THOUGH KEEPING
VSBYS AT 6SM OR MORE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN LOWER CIGS FROM ROA EAST TONIGHT
AND MEDIUM FOG BCB.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291508
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1108 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL RESIDE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SAY STRETCHED FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EAST TO
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS TIME. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT FRIDAY...

OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS SHALLOW ENOUGH WITH ANY LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT TO KEEP US DRY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING IN THE EAST WITH ITS WEDGE
ERODING TO AT LEAST THE LYNCHBURG AREA. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
SHOULD BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF SUNSHINE POKING THROUGH FROM TIME TO
TIME. FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RUNNING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST...EXCEPT MID 60S TO LOWER
70S FROM AMHERST TO LYNCHBURG EAST AND NORTHEAST TO BUCKINGHAM.

WITH A DRIER LOOK IN THE NEAR TERM...DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

HAVE LEFT A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING DURING THE PERIOD TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROF REGIME. THIS WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
AND OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO
CREATE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL
OVER ONE INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET
SPELL. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
IN NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WEDGE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST.
HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT IFR CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...HOWEVER...KLYH MAY NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AROUND
18Z/2PM...IF AT ALL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IMPROVING TO VFR AT
KLYH.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST. SURFACE A A LOW LEVEL WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING IFR CLOUDS AND MVFR FOG BACK
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
OF THE RETURN OF THE CONDITIONS. NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST SHOWED IFR
CEILINGS RETURNING TO KDAN AND KROA AFTER 07Z/1AM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291128
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
728 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
MORNING...PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS HAD ADVANCED WEST INTO THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT HAD
RAIN ON THURSDAY THEN WERE STILL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE REPORTING FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BRING A BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE FOOTHILLS. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL HELP ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...THE WIND MAY REMAIN FROM THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR TODAY...OR IF
THEY DO...THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK
IN. THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE EAST THAT REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WILL HAVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S BUT WITH THE
APRIL SUN...JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY.

SHOWERS HAD EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT A LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND IN THE
EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING DURING THE PERIOD TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROF REGIME. THIS WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
AND OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO
CREATE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL
OVER ONE INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET
SPELL. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
IN NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WEDGE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST.
HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT IFR CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...HOWEVER...KLYH MAY NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AROUND
18Z/2PM...IF AT ALL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IMPROVING TO VFR AT
KLYH.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST. SURFACE A A LOW LEVEL WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING IFR CLOUDS AND MVFR FOG BACK
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
OF THE RETURN OF THE CONDITIONS. NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST SHOWED IFR
CEILINGS RETURNING TO KDAN AND KROA AFTER 07Z/1AM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290819
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
MORNING...PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS HAD ADVANCED WEST INTO THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT HAD
RAIN ON THURSDAY THEN WERE STILL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE REPORTING FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BRING A BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE FOOTHILLS. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL HELP ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...THE WIND MAY REMAIN FROM THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR TODAY...OR IF
THEY DO...THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK
IN. THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE EAST THAT REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WILL HAVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S BUT WITH THE
APRIL SUN...JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY.

SHOWERS HAD EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT A LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND IN THE
EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING DURING THE PERIOD TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROF REGIME. THIS WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
AND OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO
CREATE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL
OVER ONE INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET
SPELL. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
IN NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WEDGE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST.
HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED IFR CLOUDS EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN  NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE 06Z START
OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD KBCB WAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN
WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER...KLYH MAY NOT
IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AROUND 18Z/2PM.

FOG WITH MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE SKY WAS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WHERE THERE WAS RAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS FOG WILL
ALSO DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING.

WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AFTER 00Z/8PM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290819
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
MORNING...PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS HAD ADVANCED WEST INTO THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT HAD
RAIN ON THURSDAY THEN WERE STILL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE REPORTING FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BRING A BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE FOOTHILLS. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL HELP ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...THE WIND MAY REMAIN FROM THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR TODAY...OR IF
THEY DO...THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK
IN. THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE EAST THAT REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WILL HAVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S BUT WITH THE
APRIL SUN...JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY.

SHOWERS HAD EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT A LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND IN THE
EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING DURING THE PERIOD TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROF REGIME. THIS WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
AND OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO
CREATE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL
OVER ONE INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET
SPELL. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
IN NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WEDGE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST.
HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED IFR CLOUDS EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN  NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE 06Z START
OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD KBCB WAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN
WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER...KLYH MAY NOT
IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AROUND 18Z/2PM.

FOG WITH MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE SKY WAS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WHERE THERE WAS RAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS FOG WILL
ALSO DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING.

WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AFTER 00Z/8PM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290553
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
153 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP ALONG THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN ADDED
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT THURSDAY...

GIVEN DECREASING TRENDS IN CONVECTION OVER THE WEST WENT AHEAD
AND DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE GOING SEVERE WATCH. HOWEVER GIVEN
LINGERING INSTABILITY...CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
STORM ACROSS THE NEW RIVER/ROA VALLEY SECTIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO WHERE HAVE SEEN NO RAIN TODAY. OTRW WILL STILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR THE RESIDUAL FRONT/WAVE TO THE WEST TO CLEAR THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE REMOVING ALL POPS. STILL APPEARS PER THE LATEST
HRRR AND SUBSEQUENT SHORT TERM MODELS THAT WILL SEE MOST COVERAGE
FADE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE WEDGE LINGERS IN THE EAST. THEREFORE WILL
TAPER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL SHOWERS GONE OUT EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. MAY NUDGE LOW
TEMPS DOWN A BIT WITHIN THE WEDGE OTRW MOSTLY 50S TO AROUND 60
OVERNIGHT.


PREVIOUS UPDATE AS OF 845 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WATCH ACROSS THE NW NC COUNTIES GIVEN
DEEPER CONVECTION ACTUALLY FARTHER NORTH AND UPSTREAM IN WEST VA
THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY AFFECT WESTERN VA. ALSO MOST AREAS OVER NW
NC HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED CONVECTION
DOWN THAT WAY. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH IN PLACE GIVEN
CONVECTION OVERTOP THE WEDGE UP NORTH AND LINGERING INSTABILITY
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES FOR NOW.


PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WEDGE HAS HELD ALL DAY FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY NORTHWEST TO
BEDFORD/AMHERST. VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS MINOR EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND
WITH 1018 MB HIGH OVER SRN PA WILL SEE LITTLE NE MOVEMENT OF THE
EROSION. CONVECTION OVER THE ALLEGHANYS WILL WORK EWD INTO THE WEDGE
BUT ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED...SO SVR THREAT ALMOST NIL FOR
LYH TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY HAS ALLOWED MUCAPES TO
EXCEED 2000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...NORTHWEST TO
THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE AREA TO WATCH
CONCERNING SVR THREAT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-45KTS IN THIS AREA.
UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY WEST-EAST...AND FAIRLY QUICK. THIS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
CLUSTERS...AS SHEAR MAY TEAR INTO THE TCU. ANY CELLS THAT CAN
OVERCOME THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GETTING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED FROM INDIANA TO THE NC MTNS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS SUCH IN OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS...SO LOOKING AT
HIGH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BETTER SUPPORT STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR AND DRY OUT LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS.

SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON...AFTER SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT...TO MID
TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST TO BUCKINGHAM IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE MONTH INTO
EARLY MAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL TRAVEL EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE...WARM
MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THEN...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL ERODE THE WEDGE AND KICK THE RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE IS ALWAYS A FORECAST
CHALLENGE AND MAY BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ON MODELS. IF WEDGES
ERODES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH
READINGS FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR
NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND
WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED IFR CLOUDS EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN  NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE 06Z START
OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD KBCB WAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN
WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER...KLYH MAY NOT
IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AROUND 18Z/2PM.

FOG WITH MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE SKY WAS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WHERE THERE WAS RAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS FOG WILL
ALSO DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING.

WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AFTER 00Z/8PM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290136 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP ALONG THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN ADDED
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT THURSDAY...

GIVEN DECREASING TRENDS IN CONVECTION OVER THE WEST WENT AHEAD
AND DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE GOING SEVERE WATCH. HOWEVER GIVEN
LINGERING INSTABILITY...CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
STORM ACROSS THE NEW RIVER/ROA VALLEY SECTIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO WHERE HAVE SEEN NO RAIN TODAY. OTRW WILL STILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR THE RESIDUAL FRONT/WAVE TO THE WEST TO CLEAR THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE REMOVING ALL POPS. STILL APPEARS PER THE LATEST
HRRR AND SUBSEQUENT SHORT TERM MODELS THAT WILL SEE MOST COVERAGE
FADE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE WEDGE LINGERS IN THE EAST. THEREFORE WILL
TAPER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL SHOWERS GONE OUT EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. MAY NUDGE LOW
TEMPS DOWN A BIT WITHIN THE WEDGE OTRW MOSTLY 50S TO AROUND 60
OVERNIGHT.


PREVIOUS UPDATE AS OF 845 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WATCH ACROSS THE NW NC COUNTIES GIVEN
DEEPER CONVECTION ACTUALLY FARTHER NORTH AND UPSTREAM IN WEST VA
THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY AFFECT WESTERN VA. ALSO MOST AREAS OVER NW
NC HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED CONVECTION
DOWN THAT WAY. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH IN PLACE GIVEN
CONVECTION OVERTOP THE WEDGE UP NORTH AND LINGERING INSTABILITY
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES FOR NOW.


PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WEDGE HAS HELD ALL DAY FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY NORTHWEST TO
BEDFORD/AMHERST. VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS MINOR EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND
WITH 1018 MB HIGH OVER SRN PA WILL SEE LITTLE NE MOVEMENT OF THE
EROSION. CONVECTION OVER THE ALLEGHANYS WILL WORK EWD INTO THE WEDGE
BUT ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED...SO SVR THREAT ALMOST NIL FOR
LYH TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY HAS ALLOWED MUCAPES TO
EXCEED 2000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...NORTHWEST TO
THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE AREA TO WATCH
CONCERNING SVR THREAT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-45KTS IN THIS AREA.
UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY WEST-EAST...AND FAIRLY QUICK. THIS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
CLUSTERS...AS SHEAR MAY TEAR INTO THE TCU. ANY CELLS THAT CAN
OVERCOME THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GETTING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED FROM INDIANA TO THE NC MTNS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS SUCH IN OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS...SO LOOKING AT
HIGH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BETTER SUPPORT STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR AND DRY OUT LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS.

SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON...AFTER SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT...TO MID
TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST TO BUCKINGHAM IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE MONTH INTO
EARLY MAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL TRAVEL EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE...WARM
MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THEN...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL ERODE THE WEDGE AND KICK THE RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE IS ALWAYS A FORECAST
CHALLENGE AND MAY BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ON MODELS. IF WEDGES
ERODES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH
READINGS FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR
NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND
WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH WEDGE REMAIN ACROSS THE KLYH VICINITY AND
LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING. MAY
EVEN SEE THE WEDGE SLIP BACK TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING
KROA/KDAN BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST SLIDES ACROSS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR
TO LOW END MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FOG WILL BE LIMITED BUT SHOULD STAY WITHIN MVFR LEVELS
WITH OCNL IFR POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH.

SHOULD SEE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS EAST OF THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO MOST ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS BACK TO LOW CIGS AND/OR FOG WEST OF
THE WEDGE ESPCLY WHERE HAVE SEEN RAINFALL FROM EARLIER. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SW TO TO NW AND THINK KBCB WILL
BE MAINLY VFR THOUGH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. KBLF SHOULD BE DRY
ENOUGH TO KEEP TO VFR CONDITIONS BUT THINK KLWB WILL SEE FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS SO KEPT LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THERE FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MAKING FOR WIDESPREAD VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED
FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR AT THIS POINT FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290136 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP ALONG THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN ADDED
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT THURSDAY...

GIVEN DECREASING TRENDS IN CONVECTION OVER THE WEST WENT AHEAD
AND DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE GOING SEVERE WATCH. HOWEVER GIVEN
LINGERING INSTABILITY...CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
STORM ACROSS THE NEW RIVER/ROA VALLEY SECTIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO WHERE HAVE SEEN NO RAIN TODAY. OTRW WILL STILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR THE RESIDUAL FRONT/WAVE TO THE WEST TO CLEAR THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE REMOVING ALL POPS. STILL APPEARS PER THE LATEST
HRRR AND SUBSEQUENT SHORT TERM MODELS THAT WILL SEE MOST COVERAGE
FADE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE WEDGE LINGERS IN THE EAST. THEREFORE WILL
TAPER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL SHOWERS GONE OUT EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. MAY NUDGE LOW
TEMPS DOWN A BIT WITHIN THE WEDGE OTRW MOSTLY 50S TO AROUND 60
OVERNIGHT.


PREVIOUS UPDATE AS OF 845 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WATCH ACROSS THE NW NC COUNTIES GIVEN
DEEPER CONVECTION ACTUALLY FARTHER NORTH AND UPSTREAM IN WEST VA
THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY AFFECT WESTERN VA. ALSO MOST AREAS OVER NW
NC HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED CONVECTION
DOWN THAT WAY. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH IN PLACE GIVEN
CONVECTION OVERTOP THE WEDGE UP NORTH AND LINGERING INSTABILITY
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES FOR NOW.


PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WEDGE HAS HELD ALL DAY FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY NORTHWEST TO
BEDFORD/AMHERST. VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS MINOR EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND
WITH 1018 MB HIGH OVER SRN PA WILL SEE LITTLE NE MOVEMENT OF THE
EROSION. CONVECTION OVER THE ALLEGHANYS WILL WORK EWD INTO THE WEDGE
BUT ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED...SO SVR THREAT ALMOST NIL FOR
LYH TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY HAS ALLOWED MUCAPES TO
EXCEED 2000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...NORTHWEST TO
THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE AREA TO WATCH
CONCERNING SVR THREAT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-45KTS IN THIS AREA.
UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY WEST-EAST...AND FAIRLY QUICK. THIS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
CLUSTERS...AS SHEAR MAY TEAR INTO THE TCU. ANY CELLS THAT CAN
OVERCOME THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GETTING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED FROM INDIANA TO THE NC MTNS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS SUCH IN OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS...SO LOOKING AT
HIGH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BETTER SUPPORT STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR AND DRY OUT LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS.

SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON...AFTER SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT...TO MID
TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST TO BUCKINGHAM IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE MONTH INTO
EARLY MAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL TRAVEL EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE...WARM
MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THEN...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL ERODE THE WEDGE AND KICK THE RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE IS ALWAYS A FORECAST
CHALLENGE AND MAY BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ON MODELS. IF WEDGES
ERODES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH
READINGS FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR
NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND
WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH WEDGE REMAIN ACROSS THE KLYH VICINITY AND
LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING. MAY
EVEN SEE THE WEDGE SLIP BACK TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING
KROA/KDAN BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST SLIDES ACROSS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR
TO LOW END MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FOG WILL BE LIMITED BUT SHOULD STAY WITHIN MVFR LEVELS
WITH OCNL IFR POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH.

SHOULD SEE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS EAST OF THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO MOST ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS BACK TO LOW CIGS AND/OR FOG WEST OF
THE WEDGE ESPCLY WHERE HAVE SEEN RAINFALL FROM EARLIER. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SW TO TO NW AND THINK KBCB WILL
BE MAINLY VFR THOUGH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. KBLF SHOULD BE DRY
ENOUGH TO KEEP TO VFR CONDITIONS BUT THINK KLWB WILL SEE FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS SO KEPT LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THERE FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MAKING FOR WIDESPREAD VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED
FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR AT THIS POINT FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290049 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
849 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP ALONG THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN ADDED
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WATCH ACROSS THE NW NC COUNTIES GIVEN
DEEPER CONVECTION ACTUALLY FARTHER NORTH AND UPSTREAM IN WEST VA
THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY AFFECT WESTERN VA. ALSO MOST AREAS OVER NW
NC HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED CONVECTION
DOWN THAT WAY. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH IN PLACE GIVEN
CONVECTION OVERTOP THE WEDGE UP NORTH AND LINGERING INSTABILITY
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES FOR NOW.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 420 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119 ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA UNTIL 11
PM. MAIN FOCUS THROUGH 6 PM WILL BE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
OF NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. WEDGE OVER CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE TO
LYNCHBURG TO AMHERST SHOULD HOLD KEEPING SVR THREAT LOW. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH UPSTREAM AS VORT LOBE PUSHES ACROSS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ENHANCE STORMS UPSTREAM OVER WV.

PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WEDGE HAS HELD ALL DAY FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY NORTHWEST TO
BEDFORD/AMHERST. VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS MINOR EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND
WITH 1018 MB HIGH OVER SRN PA WILL SEE LITTLE NE MOVEMENT OF THE
EROSION. CONVECTION OVER THE ALLEGHANYS WILL WORK EWD INTO THE WEDGE
BUT ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED...SO SVR THREAT ALMOST NIL FOR
LYH TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY HAS ALLOWED MUCAPES TO
EXCEED 2000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...NORTHWEST TO
THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE AREA TO WATCH
CONCERNING SVR THREAT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-45KTS IN THIS AREA.
UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY WEST-EAST...AND FAIRLY QUICK. THIS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
CLUSTERS...AS SHEAR MAY TEAR INTO THE TCU. ANY CELLS THAT CAN
OVERCOME THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GETTING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED FROM INDIANA TO THE NC MTNS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS SUCH IN OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS...SO LOOKING AT
HIGH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BETTER SUPPORT STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR AND DRY OUT LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS.

SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON...AFTER SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT...TO MID
TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST TO BUCKINGHAM IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE MONTH INTO
EARLY MAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL TRAVEL EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE...WARM
MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THEN...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL ERODE THE WEDGE AND KICK THE RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE IS ALWAYS A FORECAST
CHALLENGE AND MAY BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ON MODELS. IF WEDGES
ERODES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH
READINGS FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR
NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND
WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH WEDGE REMAIN ACROSS THE KLYH VICINITY AND
LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING. MAY
EVEN SEE THE WEDGE SLIP BACK TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING
KROA/KDAN BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST SLIDES ACROSS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR
TO LOW END MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FOG WILL BE LIMITED BUT SHOULD STAY WITHIN MVFR LEVELS
WITH OCNL IFR POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH.

SHOULD SEE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS EAST OF THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO MOST ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS BACK TO LOW CIGS AND/OR FOG WEST OF
THE WEDGE ESPCLY WHERE HAVE SEEN RAINFALL FROM EARLIER. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SW TO TO NW AND THINK KBCB WILL
BE MAINLY VFR THOUGH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. KBLF SHOULD BE DRY
ENOUGH TO KEEP TO VFR CONDITIONS BUT THINK KLWB WILL SEE FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS SO KEPT LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THERE FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MAKING FOR WIDESPREAD VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED
FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR AT THIS POINT FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 282333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP ALONG THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN ADDED
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119 ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA UNTIL 11
PM. MAIN FOCUS THROUGH 6 PM WILL BE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
OF NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. WEDGE OVER CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE TO
LYNCHBURG TO AMHERST SHOULD HOLD KEEPING SVR THREAT LOW. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH UPSTREAM AS VORT LOBE PUSHES ACROSS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ENHANCE STORMS UPSTREAM OVER WV.

PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WEDGE HAS HELD ALL DAY FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY NORTHWEST TO
BEDFORD/AMHERST. VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS MINOR EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND
WITH 1018 MB HIGH OVER SRN PA WILL SEE LITTLE NE MOVEMENT OF THE
EROSION. CONVECTION OVER THE ALLEGHANYS WILL WORK EWD INTO THE WEDGE
BUT ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED...SO SVR THREAT ALMOST NIL FOR
LYH TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY HAS ALLOWED MUCAPES TO
EXCEED 2000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...NORTHWEST TO
THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE AREA TO WATCH
CONCERNING SVR THREAT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-45KTS IN THIS AREA.
UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY WEST-EAST...AND FAIRLY QUICK. THIS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
CLUSTERS...AS SHEAR MAY TEAR INTO THE TCU. ANY CELLS THAT CAN
OVERCOME THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GETTING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED FROM INDIANA TO THE NC MTNS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS SUCH IN OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS...SO LOOKING AT
HIGH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BETTER SUPPORT STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR AND DRY OUT LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS.

SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON...AFTER SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT...TO MID
TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST TO BUCKINGHAM IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE MONTH INTO
EARLY MAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL TRAVEL EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE...WARM
MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THEN...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL ERODE THE WEDGE AND KICK THE RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE IS ALWAYS A FORECAST
CHALLENGE AND MAY BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ON MODELS. IF WEDGES
ERODES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH
READINGS FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR
NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND
WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH WEDGE REMAIN ACROSS THE KLYH VICINITY AND
LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING. MAY
EVEN SEE THE WEDGE SLIP BACK TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING
KROA/KDAN BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST SLIDES ACROSS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR
TO LOW END MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FOG WILL BE LIMITED BUT SHOULD STAY WITHIN MVFR LEVELS
WITH OCNL IFR POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH.

SHOULD SEE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS EAST OF THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO MOST ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS BACK TO LOW CIGS AND/OR FOG WEST OF
THE WEDGE ESPCLY WHERE HAVE SEEN RAINFALL FROM EARLIER. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SW TO TO NW AND THINK KBCB WILL
BE MAINLY VFR THOUGH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. KBLF SHOULD BE DRY
ENOUGH TO KEEP TO VFR CONDITIONS BUT THINK KLWB WILL SEE FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS SO KEPT LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THERE FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MAKING FOR WIDESPREAD VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED
FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR AT THIS POINT FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 282025
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT
CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119 ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA UNTIL 11
PM. MAIN FOCUS THROUGH 6 PM WILL BE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
OF NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. WEDGE OVER CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE TO
LYNCHBURG TO AMHERST SHOULD HOLD KEEPING SVR THREAT LOW. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH UPSTREAM AS VORT LOBE PUSHES ACROSS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ENHANCE STORMS UPSTREAM OVER WV.

PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WEDGE HAS HELD ALL DAY FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY NORTHWEST TO
BEDFORD/AMHERST. VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS MINOR EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND
WITH 1018 MB HIGH OVER SRN PA WILL SEE LITTLE NE MOVEMENT OF THE
EROSION. CONVECTION OVER THE ALLEGHANYS WILL WORK EWD INTO THE WEDGE
BUT ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED...SO SVR THREAT ALMOST NIL FOR
LYH TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY HAS ALLOWED MUCAPES TO
EXCEED 2000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...NORTHWEST TO
THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE AREA TO WATCH
CONCERNING SVR THREAT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-45KTS IN THIS AREA.
UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY WEST-EAST...AND FAIRLY QUICK. THIS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
CLUSTERS...AS SHEAR MAY TEAR INTO THE TCU. ANY CELLS THAT CAN
OVERCOME THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GETTING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED FROM INDIANA TO THE NC MTNS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS SUCH IN OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS...SO LOOKING AT
HIGH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BETTER SUPPORT STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR AND DRY OUT LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS.

SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON...AFTER SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT...TO MID
TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST TO BUCKINGHAM IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE MONTH INTO
EARLY MAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL TRAVEL EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE...WARM
MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THEN...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL ERODE THE WEDGE AND KICK THE RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE IS ALWAYS A FORECAST
CHALLENGE AND MAY BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ON MODELS. IF WEDGES
ERODES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH
READINGS FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR
NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND
WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW CLOUDS WITH WEDGE FROM DAN/LYH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY 21Z
AT DAN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT LYH WILL...SO KEPT THEM MVFR THEN IFR
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY
SCATTERED...SO NOT PUTTING PREDOMINANT IN THE TAFS YET. LWB SEEING
SOME CLOSE BY AS OF 130 PM EDT.

SHOULD SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
EVENING...THEN CONCERN SHIFTS BACK TO LOW CIGS AND/OR FOG. WEDGE
MAY HANG THRU FRIDAY MORNING AT LYH/DAN...SO EXPECT AT LEAST IFR
TO LOW END MVFR CIGS HERE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BE
LIMITED BUT SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 3-6SM.

FURTHER WEST THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SW TO TO NW AND THINK
ROA/BCB WILL BE MAINLY VFR THOUGH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE.
BLF SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP TO VFR CONDITIONS BUT THINK LWB
WILL SEE FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS SO LEANED TOWARD IFR CIGS FOR NOW.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN PLACEMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT....BUT MEDIUM OTHERWISE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR AND VFR RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF US TUESDAY SO MAY SEE VFR AGAIN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





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