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000
FXUS61 KRNK 011931
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
331 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND SETTLES ABOUT OVERHEAD THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN WHILE ALSO HELPING WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS NOT ON THE RIDGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EVEN
COOLER AIR AT 85H THAN SEEN BEFORE LIKELY TO MAKE FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST LATE WITH A LIGHT NORTH/NE BREEZE LINGERING OUT EAST IN
SPOTS. LATEST MOS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EAST AND
COOL 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE DEEPEST
WESTERN VALLEYS PENDING ANY LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG AND RESIDUAL WESTERN
SLOPE STRATO-CU THAT MAY LINGER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WARM BUT DRY DAY WITH OVERALL LOW HUMIDITY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS NW EARLY BEFORE MIXING OUT. ALSO MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH RETURN SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE TO PROMPT A BIT MORE
CU OVER SW SECTIONS BUT WITHOUT ANY POP MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN DRYNESS.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPS AS 850 MB VALUES START
TO REBOUND WHILE HIGHS AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK EASTERN
DOWNSLOPE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO STAYING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH MOSTLY 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
FEATURE.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO
MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT INFLUENCE OF
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL OF THE WAVES PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT...STILL WARRANTS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
MAINTAIN A REFLECTION OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DEPICTIONS...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVE DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO ALLOW 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE +22-23C RANGE IN MOST
AREAS...DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER...
MAINLY IN 60S...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OPPRESSIVE 70S EXPERIENCED
EARLIER.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...DECAYING COOL FRONT LIKELY TO STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE AS UPPER FLOW REVERTS TO MORE
OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION. PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONT...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE IN REGION OF CONFLUENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA...MOST NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND LOCALIZED UPSLOPING WILL AID IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

SOME WEAK POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS MAY HELP TO LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THOSE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED GOOD INSOLATION AND NEGLIGIBLE
PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC SHOULD
ENSURE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL
ADVECTION DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME APPEARS TO
COME ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN TWO
OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND THIS REFLECTED
ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THESE TIMEFRAMES. OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND
MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING CU FIELD ACROSS THE NW TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BKN 4-6K FT
CIGS AT TIMES FROM KLWB TO KBLF/KBCB BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRYNESS. SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUDINESS
FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN AND POSSIBLY KEEP SOME SCATTERED
STRATO-CU LINGERING THIS EVENING. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY OTHER
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT KLWB BUT IFFY AS TO HOW LOW VSBYS WILL GO
GIVEN LIKELY PATCHY/ISOLATED NATURE TO THE FOG. THUS KEPT TREND
TOWARD A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KLWB BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

SHOULD SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF CU ON SUNDAY WITH REINFORCING DRY
AIR THAT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN MOISTURE TO LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY SW OF THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011835
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
235 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND SETTLES ABOUT OVERHEAD THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN WHILE ALSO HELPING WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS NOT ON THE RIDGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EVEN
COOLER AIR AT 85H THAN SEEN BEFORE LIKELY TO MAKE FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST LATE WITH A LIGHT NORTH/NE BREEZE LINGERING OUT EAST IN
SPOTS. LATEST MOS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EAST AND
COOL 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE DEEPEST
WESTERN VALLEYS PENDING ANY LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG AND RESIDUAL WESTERN
SLOPE STRATO-CU THAT MAY LINGER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WARM BUT DRY DAY WITH OVERALL LOW HUMIDITY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS NW EARLY BEFORE MIXING OUT. ALSO MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH RETURN SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE TO PROMPT A BIT MORE
CU OVER SW SECTIONS BUT WITHOUT ANY POP MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN DRYNESS.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPS AS 850 MB VALUES START
TO REBOUND WHILE HIGHS AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK EASTERN
DOWNSLOPE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO STAYING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH MOSTLY 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING CU FIELD ACROSS THE NW TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BKN 4-6K FT
CIGS AT TIMES FROM KLWB TO KBLF/KBCB BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRYNESS. SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUDINESS
FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN AND POSSIBLY KEEP SOME SCATTERED
STRATO-CU LINGERING THIS EVENING. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY OTHER
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT KLWB BUT IFFY AS TO HOW LOW VSBYS WILL GO
GIVEN LIKELY PATCHY/ISOLATED NATURE TO THE FOG. THUS KEPT TREND
TOWARD A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KLWB BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

SHOULD SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF CU ON SUNDAY WITH REINFORCING DRY
AIR THAT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN MOISTURE TO LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY SW OF THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011835
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
235 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND SETTLES ABOUT OVERHEAD THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN WHILE ALSO HELPING WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS NOT ON THE RIDGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EVEN
COOLER AIR AT 85H THAN SEEN BEFORE LIKELY TO MAKE FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST LATE WITH A LIGHT NORTH/NE BREEZE LINGERING OUT EAST IN
SPOTS. LATEST MOS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EAST AND
COOL 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE DEEPEST
WESTERN VALLEYS PENDING ANY LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG AND RESIDUAL WESTERN
SLOPE STRATO-CU THAT MAY LINGER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WARM BUT DRY DAY WITH OVERALL LOW HUMIDITY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS NW EARLY BEFORE MIXING OUT. ALSO MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH RETURN SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE TO PROMPT A BIT MORE
CU OVER SW SECTIONS BUT WITHOUT ANY POP MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN DRYNESS.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPS AS 850 MB VALUES START
TO REBOUND WHILE HIGHS AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK EASTERN
DOWNSLOPE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO STAYING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH MOSTLY 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING CU FIELD ACROSS THE NW TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BKN 4-6K FT
CIGS AT TIMES FROM KLWB TO KBLF/KBCB BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRYNESS. SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUDINESS
FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN AND POSSIBLY KEEP SOME SCATTERED
STRATO-CU LINGERING THIS EVENING. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY OTHER
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT KLWB BUT IFFY AS TO HOW LOW VSBYS WILL GO
GIVEN LIKELY PATCHY/ISOLATED NATURE TO THE FOG. THUS KEPT TREND
TOWARD A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KLWB BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

SHOULD SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF CU ON SUNDAY WITH REINFORCING DRY
AIR THAT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN MOISTURE TO LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY SW OF THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...

STILL MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NW MAY GENERATE A BIT OF CU NW AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM CU
RULE BUT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO MIX OUT UNDER SUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OFF MORNING RAOBS. LATEST NAM AND HRRR ALSO GENERATING A FEW
-SHRA FAR NORTH BUT LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR DESPITE
SOME DEWPOINT RISES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DIURNAL
SWING IN TEMPS GIVEN HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. MORNING THICKNESS AND LATEST MOS DOES SUPPORT A LITTLE BUMP
IN HIGHS SO RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO IN SPOTS ESPCLY EAST WHERE A
FEW LOW 90S APPEAR LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING CU FIELD ACROSS THE NW TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BKN 4-6K FT
CIGS AT TIMES FROM KLWB TO KBLF/KBCB BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRYNESS. SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUDINESS
FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN AND POSSIBLY KEEP SOME SCATTERED
STRATO-CU LINGERING THIS EVENING. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY OTHER
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT KLWB BUT IFFY AS TO HOW LOW VSBYS WILL GO
GIVEN LIKELY PATCHY/ISOLATED NATURE TO THE FOG. THUS KEPT TREND
TOWARD A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KLWB BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

SHOULD SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF CU ON SUNDAY WITH REINFORCING DRY
AIR THAT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN MOISTURE TO LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY SW OF THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...

STILL MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NW MAY GENERATE A BIT OF CU NW AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM CU
RULE BUT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO MIX OUT UNDER SUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OFF MORNING RAOBS. LATEST NAM AND HRRR ALSO GENERATING A FEW
-SHRA FAR NORTH BUT LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR DESPITE
SOME DEWPOINT RISES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DIURNAL
SWING IN TEMPS GIVEN HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. MORNING THICKNESS AND LATEST MOS DOES SUPPORT A LITTLE BUMP
IN HIGHS SO RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO IN SPOTS ESPCLY EAST WHERE A
FEW LOW 90S APPEAR LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING CU FIELD ACROSS THE NW TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BKN 4-6K FT
CIGS AT TIMES FROM KLWB TO KBLF/KBCB BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRYNESS. SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUDINESS
FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN AND POSSIBLY KEEP SOME SCATTERED
STRATO-CU LINGERING THIS EVENING. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY OTHER
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT KLWB BUT IFFY AS TO HOW LOW VSBYS WILL GO
GIVEN LIKELY PATCHY/ISOLATED NATURE TO THE FOG. THUS KEPT TREND
TOWARD A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KLWB BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

SHOULD SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF CU ON SUNDAY WITH REINFORCING DRY
AIR THAT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN MOISTURE TO LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY SW OF THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...

STILL MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NW MAY GENERATE A BIT OF CU NW AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM CU
RULE BUT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO MIX OUT UNDER SUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OFF MORNING RAOBS. LATEST NAM AND HRRR ALSO GENERATING A FEW
-SHRA FAR NORTH BUT LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR DESPITE
SOME DEWPOINT RISES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DIURNAL
SWING IN TEMPS GIVEN HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. MORNING THICKNESS AND LATEST MOS DOES SUPPORT A LITTLE BUMP
IN HIGHS SO RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO IN SPOTS ESPCLY EAST WHERE A
FEW LOW 90S APPEAR LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING CU FIELD ACROSS THE NW TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BKN 4-6K FT
CIGS AT TIMES FROM KLWB TO KBLF/KBCB BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRYNESS. SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUDINESS
FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN AND POSSIBLY KEEP SOME SCATTERED
STRATO-CU LINGERING THIS EVENING. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY OTHER
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT KLWB BUT IFFY AS TO HOW LOW VSBYS WILL GO
GIVEN LIKELY PATCHY/ISOLATED NATURE TO THE FOG. THUS KEPT TREND
TOWARD A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KLWB BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

SHOULD SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF CU ON SUNDAY WITH REINFORCING DRY
AIR THAT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN MOISTURE TO LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY SW OF THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...

STILL MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NW MAY GENERATE A BIT OF CU NW AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM CU
RULE BUT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO MIX OUT UNDER SUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OFF MORNING RAOBS. LATEST NAM AND HRRR ALSO GENERATING A FEW
-SHRA FAR NORTH BUT LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR DESPITE
SOME DEWPOINT RISES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DIURNAL
SWING IN TEMPS GIVEN HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. MORNING THICKNESS AND LATEST MOS DOES SUPPORT A LITTLE BUMP
IN HIGHS SO RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO IN SPOTS ESPCLY EAST WHERE A
FEW LOW 90S APPEAR LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING CU FIELD ACROSS THE NW TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BKN 4-6K FT
CIGS AT TIMES FROM KLWB TO KBLF/KBCB BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRYNESS. SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUDINESS
FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN AND POSSIBLY KEEP SOME SCATTERED
STRATO-CU LINGERING THIS EVENING. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY OTHER
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT KLWB BUT IFFY AS TO HOW LOW VSBYS WILL GO
GIVEN LIKELY PATCHY/ISOLATED NATURE TO THE FOG. THUS KEPT TREND
TOWARD A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KLWB BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

SHOULD SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF CU ON SUNDAY WITH REINFORCING DRY
AIR THAT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN MOISTURE TO LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY SW OF THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011405
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1005 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...

STILL MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NW MAY GENERATE A BIT OF CU NW AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM CU
RULE BUT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO MIX OUT UNDER SUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OFF MORNING RAOBS. OTRW EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY
AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS GIVEN HEATING OF DRY
AIR AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING OUT EAST. MORNING THICKNESS AND LATEST
MOS DOES SUPPORT A LITTLE BUMP IN HIGHS SO RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO
IN SPOTS ESCPLY EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011405
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1005 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...

STILL MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NW MAY GENERATE A BIT OF CU NW AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM CU
RULE BUT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO MIX OUT UNDER SUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OFF MORNING RAOBS. OTRW EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY
AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS GIVEN HEATING OF DRY
AIR AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING OUT EAST. MORNING THICKNESS AND LATEST
MOS DOES SUPPORT A LITTLE BUMP IN HIGHS SO RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO
IN SPOTS ESCPLY EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011405
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1005 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...

STILL MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NW MAY GENERATE A BIT OF CU NW AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM CU
RULE BUT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO MIX OUT UNDER SUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OFF MORNING RAOBS. OTRW EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY
AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS GIVEN HEATING OF DRY
AIR AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING OUT EAST. MORNING THICKNESS AND LATEST
MOS DOES SUPPORT A LITTLE BUMP IN HIGHS SO RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO
IN SPOTS ESCPLY EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011120
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
720 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011120
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
720 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011120
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
720 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011120
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
720 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010658
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
258 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB/BCB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JR/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010658
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
258 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.

TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE  UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB/BCB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JR/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010513
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A MOONLIT NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO
SKIRT ACROSS THE SKIES OF THE GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS INTO THE
ALLEGHANYS OF VIRGINIA. PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
OF THE WEST BY DAWN.

LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION.

THIS SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS THAT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MARKED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF AROUND 30F.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH/OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INTO
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROF EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND THEN STALL OVER/NEAR THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROF SPOKE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AREA AND AS UPPER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION.

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING
THE PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN
THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB/BCB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010513
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A MOONLIT NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO
SKIRT ACROSS THE SKIES OF THE GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS INTO THE
ALLEGHANYS OF VIRGINIA. PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
OF THE WEST BY DAWN.

LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION.

THIS SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS THAT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MARKED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF AROUND 30F.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH/OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INTO
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROF EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND THEN STALL OVER/NEAR THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROF SPOKE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AREA AND AS UPPER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION.

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING
THE PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN
THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB/BCB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010513
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A MOONLIT NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO
SKIRT ACROSS THE SKIES OF THE GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS INTO THE
ALLEGHANYS OF VIRGINIA. PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
OF THE WEST BY DAWN.

LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION.

THIS SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS THAT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MARKED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF AROUND 30F.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH/OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INTO
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROF EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND THEN STALL OVER/NEAR THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROF SPOKE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AREA AND AS UPPER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION.

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING
THE PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN
THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB/BCB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010513
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A MOONLIT NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO
SKIRT ACROSS THE SKIES OF THE GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS INTO THE
ALLEGHANYS OF VIRGINIA. PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
OF THE WEST BY DAWN.

LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION.

THIS SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS THAT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MARKED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF AROUND 30F.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH/OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INTO
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROF EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND THEN STALL OVER/NEAR THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROF SPOKE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AREA AND AS UPPER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION.

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING
THE PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN
THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT LWB/BCB. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SET UP IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MON-WED BUT THREAT OF
SUB VFR IS LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG THREAT AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010152
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
952 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. LEANED TOWARDS THE
COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION.

THIS SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS THAT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MARKED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF AROUND 30F.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH/OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INTO
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROF EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND THEN STALL OVER/NEAR THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROF SPOKE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AREA AND AS UPPER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION.

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING
THE PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN
THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z-00Z 8PM-8PM TAF
TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE SOME BRIEF...LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG. ANY THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT KLWB/KBCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010152
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
952 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. LEANED TOWARDS THE
COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION.

THIS SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS THAT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MARKED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF AROUND 30F.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH/OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INTO
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROF EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND THEN STALL OVER/NEAR THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROF SPOKE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AREA AND AS UPPER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION.

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING
THE PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN
THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z-00Z 8PM-8PM TAF
TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE SOME BRIEF...LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG. ANY THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT KLWB/KBCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 312317
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU WILL
DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS
WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. GREAT NIGHT
TO OPEN YOUR WINDOWS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS.
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION.

THIS SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS THAT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MARKED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF AROUND 30F.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH/OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INTO
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROF EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND THEN STALL OVER/NEAR THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROF SPOKE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AREA AND AS UPPER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION.

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING
THE PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN
THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z-00Z 8PM-8PM TAF
TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE SOME BRIEF...LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG. ANY THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT KLWB/KBCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 312317
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU WILL
DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS
WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. GREAT NIGHT
TO OPEN YOUR WINDOWS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS.
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION.

THIS SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS THAT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MARKED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF AROUND 30F.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH/OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INTO
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROF EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND THEN STALL OVER/NEAR THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROF SPOKE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AREA AND AS UPPER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION.

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING
THE PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN
THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z-00Z 8PM-8PM TAF
TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE SOME BRIEF...LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG. ANY THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT KLWB/KBCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 312317
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU WILL
DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS
WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. GREAT NIGHT
TO OPEN YOUR WINDOWS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS.
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION.

THIS SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS THAT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MARKED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF AROUND 30F.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH/OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INTO
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROF EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND THEN STALL OVER/NEAR THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROF SPOKE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AREA AND AS UPPER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION.

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING
THE PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN
THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z-00Z 8PM-8PM TAF
TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE SOME BRIEF...LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG. ANY THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT KLWB/KBCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311939
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
339 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU WILL
DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS
WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. GREAT NIGHT
TO OPEN YOUR WINDOWS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS.
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION.

THIS SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS THAT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MARKED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF AROUND 30F.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH/OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INTO
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROF EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND THEN STALL OVER/NEAR THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROF SPOKE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AREA AND AS UPPER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION.

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING
THE PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN
THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE PATCHY MORNING FOG. KLWB AND KBCB HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF OR MIX OUT BY 9 AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT KLWB/KBCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311939
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
339 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU WILL
DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS
WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. GREAT NIGHT
TO OPEN YOUR WINDOWS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS.
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION.

THIS SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS THAT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
MARKED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF AROUND 30F.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH/OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS INTO
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROF EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND THEN STALL OVER/NEAR THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROF SPOKE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AREA AND AS UPPER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION.

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING
THE PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN
THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE PATCHY MORNING FOG. KLWB AND KBCB HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF OR MIX OUT BY 9 AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT KLWB/KBCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311754
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU WILL
DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS
WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. GREAT NIGHT
TO OPEN YOUR WINDOWS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS.
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC
SITUATED IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW. COUPLE THAT
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING AS FORECAST MODELS
ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...TRIGGERING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THAT STATED...BEST SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER HUMIDITY...MAKING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR EACH DAY...
RANGING FROM A FEW UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF MID/UPPER 40S COME FROM A FEW OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES EACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT
LOW POPS AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE PATCHY MORNING FOG. KLWB AND KBCB HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF OR MIX OUT BY 9 AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT KLWB/KBCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311733
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 900 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN ISC GRIDS TO LIFT MORNING FOG. ALSO
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THURSDAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ENJOY THE GREAT
WEATHER !

AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

PATCHY FOG OVER THE SE WV VALLEYS WILL FADE BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT TO FEEL A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS SHOULD RIDE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM TIME TO TIME. A NW LOW LVL
WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO STILL LOOKING AT SEASONAL NORMS FOR HIGHS...RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN SHOWERS...AS WE STAY
IN THE DRIER AIR MASS. SOME MOS NUMBERS HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND/OR HIGHER VALLEYS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT...BURKES
GARDEN FOR INSTANCE.  EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR IF WE DECOUPLE AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC
SITUATED IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW. COUPLE THAT
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING
AS FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES...TRIGGERING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT STATED...BEST SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES
FOR NOW ON MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER HUMIDITY...MAKING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR EACH DAY...
RANGING FROM A FEW UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF MID/UPPER 40S COME FROM A FEW OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES EACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT
LOW POPS AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE PATCHY MORNING FOG. KLWB AND KBCB HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311733
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 900 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN ISC GRIDS TO LIFT MORNING FOG. ALSO
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THURSDAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ENJOY THE GREAT
WEATHER !

AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

PATCHY FOG OVER THE SE WV VALLEYS WILL FADE BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT TO FEEL A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS SHOULD RIDE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM TIME TO TIME. A NW LOW LVL
WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO STILL LOOKING AT SEASONAL NORMS FOR HIGHS...RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN SHOWERS...AS WE STAY
IN THE DRIER AIR MASS. SOME MOS NUMBERS HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND/OR HIGHER VALLEYS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT...BURKES
GARDEN FOR INSTANCE.  EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR IF WE DECOUPLE AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC
SITUATED IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW. COUPLE THAT
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING
AS FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES...TRIGGERING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT STATED...BEST SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES
FOR NOW ON MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER HUMIDITY...MAKING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR EACH DAY...
RANGING FROM A FEW UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF MID/UPPER 40S COME FROM A FEW OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES EACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT
LOW POPS AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...

GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE PATCHY MORNING FOG. KLWB AND KBCB HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311302
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
902 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN ISC GRIDS TO LIFT MORNING FOG. ALSO
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THURSDAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ENJOY THE GREAT
WEATHER !

AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

PATCHY FOG OVER THE SE WV VALLEYS WILL FADE BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT TO FEEL A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS SHOULD RIDE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM TIME TO TIME. A NW LOW LVL
WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO STILL LOOKING AT SEASONAL NORMS FOR HIGHS...RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN SHOWERS...AS WE STAY
IN THE DRIER AIR MASS. SOME MOS NUMBERS HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND/OR HIGHER VALLEYS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT...BURKES
GARDEN FOR INSTANCE.  EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR IF WE DECOUPLE AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC
SITUATED IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW. COUPLE THAT
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING
AS FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES...TRIGGERING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT STATED...BEST SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES
FOR NOW ON MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER HUMIDITY...MAKING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR EACH DAY...
RANGING FROM A FEW UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF MID/UPPER 40S COME FROM A FEW OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES EACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT
LOW POPS AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311302
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
902 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN ISC GRIDS TO LIFT MORNING FOG. ALSO
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THURSDAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ENJOY THE GREAT
WEATHER !

AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

PATCHY FOG OVER THE SE WV VALLEYS WILL FADE BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT TO FEEL A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS SHOULD RIDE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM TIME TO TIME. A NW LOW LVL
WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO STILL LOOKING AT SEASONAL NORMS FOR HIGHS...RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN SHOWERS...AS WE STAY
IN THE DRIER AIR MASS. SOME MOS NUMBERS HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND/OR HIGHER VALLEYS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT...BURKES
GARDEN FOR INSTANCE.  EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR IF WE DECOUPLE AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC
SITUATED IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW. COUPLE THAT
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING
AS FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES...TRIGGERING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT STATED...BEST SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES
FOR NOW ON MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER HUMIDITY...MAKING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR EACH DAY...
RANGING FROM A FEW UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF MID/UPPER 40S COME FROM A FEW OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES EACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT
LOW POPS AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311124
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

PATCHY FOG OVER THE SE WV VALLEYS WILL FADE BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT TO FEEL A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS SHOULD RIDE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM TIME TO TIME. A NW LOW LVL
WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO STILL LOOKING AT SEASONAL NORMS FOR HIGHS...RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN SHOWERS...AS WE STAY
IN THE DRIER AIR MASS. SOME MOS NUMBERS HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND/OR HIGHER VALLEYS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT...BURKES
GARDEN FOR INSTANCE.  EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR IF WE DECOUPLE AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC
SITUATED IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW. COUPLE THAT
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING
AS FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES...TRIGGERING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT STATED...BEST SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES
FOR NOW ON MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER HUMIDITY...MAKING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR EACH DAY...
RANGING FROM A FEW UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF MID/UPPER 40S COME FROM A FEW OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES EACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT
LOW POPS AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311124
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

PATCHY FOG OVER THE SE WV VALLEYS WILL FADE BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT TO FEEL A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS SHOULD RIDE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM TIME TO TIME. A NW LOW LVL
WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO STILL LOOKING AT SEASONAL NORMS FOR HIGHS...RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN SHOWERS...AS WE STAY
IN THE DRIER AIR MASS. SOME MOS NUMBERS HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND/OR HIGHER VALLEYS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT...BURKES
GARDEN FOR INSTANCE.  EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR IF WE DECOUPLE AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC
SITUATED IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW. COUPLE THAT
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING
AS FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES...TRIGGERING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT STATED...BEST SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES
FOR NOW ON MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER HUMIDITY...MAKING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR EACH DAY...
RANGING FROM A FEW UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF MID/UPPER 40S COME FROM A FEW OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES EACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT
LOW POPS AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311124
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

PATCHY FOG OVER THE SE WV VALLEYS WILL FADE BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT TO FEEL A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS SHOULD RIDE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM TIME TO TIME. A NW LOW LVL
WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO STILL LOOKING AT SEASONAL NORMS FOR HIGHS...RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN SHOWERS...AS WE STAY
IN THE DRIER AIR MASS. SOME MOS NUMBERS HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND/OR HIGHER VALLEYS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT...BURKES
GARDEN FOR INSTANCE.  EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR IF WE DECOUPLE AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC
SITUATED IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW. COUPLE THAT
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING
AS FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES...TRIGGERING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT STATED...BEST SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES
FOR NOW ON MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER HUMIDITY...MAKING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR EACH DAY...
RANGING FROM A FEW UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF MID/UPPER 40S COME FROM A FEW OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES EACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT
LOW POPS AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311124
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

PATCHY FOG OVER THE SE WV VALLEYS WILL FADE BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT TO FEEL A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS SHOULD RIDE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM TIME TO TIME. A NW LOW LVL
WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO STILL LOOKING AT SEASONAL NORMS FOR HIGHS...RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN SHOWERS...AS WE STAY
IN THE DRIER AIR MASS. SOME MOS NUMBERS HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND/OR HIGHER VALLEYS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT...BURKES
GARDEN FOR INSTANCE.  EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR IF WE DECOUPLE AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC
SITUATED IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW. COUPLE THAT
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING
AS FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES...TRIGGERING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT STATED...BEST SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES
FOR NOW ON MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER HUMIDITY...MAKING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR EACH DAY...
RANGING FROM A FEW UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF MID/UPPER 40S COME FROM A FEW OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES EACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT
LOW POPS AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310639
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
239 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT TO FEEL A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS SHOULD RIDE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM TIME TO TIME. A NW LOW LVL
WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO STILL LOOKING AT SEASONAL NORMS FOR HIGHS...RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN SHOWERS...AS WE STAY
IN THE DRIER AIR MASS. SOME MOS NUMBERS HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND/OR HIGHER VALLEYS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT...BURKES
GARDEN FOR INSTANCE.  EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR IF WE DECOUPLE AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC
SITUATED IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW. COUPLE THAT
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING
AS FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES...TRIGGERING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT STATED...BEST SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES
FOR NOW ON MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER HUMIDITY...MAKING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR EACH DAY...
RANGING FROM A FEW UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF MID/UPPER 40S COME FROM A FEW OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES EACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT
LOW POPS AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE SOME FOG COULD FORM THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAWN...THOUGH WILL
BE A RACE BETWEEN TEMP/DEWPOINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310639
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
239 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT TO FEEL A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS SHOULD RIDE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM TIME TO TIME. A NW LOW LVL
WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO STILL LOOKING AT SEASONAL NORMS FOR HIGHS...RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN SHOWERS...AS WE STAY
IN THE DRIER AIR MASS. SOME MOS NUMBERS HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND/OR HIGHER VALLEYS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT...BURKES
GARDEN FOR INSTANCE.  EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR IF WE DECOUPLE AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC
SITUATED IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW. COUPLE THAT
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING
AS FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES...TRIGGERING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT STATED...BEST SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES
FOR NOW ON MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER HUMIDITY...MAKING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR EACH DAY...
RANGING FROM A FEW UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF MID/UPPER 40S COME FROM A FEW OF
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 4
DEGREES EACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT
LOW POPS AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE SOME FOG COULD FORM THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAWN...THOUGH WILL
BE A RACE BETWEEN TEMP/DEWPOINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310522
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DRY AIR KEEPS FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONT AS DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND EVEN TO 60 AT
LYH. ALL SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE CWA AND NOT EXPECTING ANY THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS SKIES STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND MOONLIT. SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS
STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60 SOUTHSIDE
VA/ NW NC PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A
WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD LOOKS IN STORE UNDER BROAD UPPER
TROFFINESS ENHANCED VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND
CLEAR/PLEASANT NIGHTS GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER
HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NW UNDER SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED
DRYNESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS OPTING TO LEAVE OUT
ANY POPS OR SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 85-90
RANGE EAST...AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS. BETTER IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR TO BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLEST NIGHT
AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE 85H
TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW 40S
IN THE DEEPEST NW VALLEYS PENDING ANY RIVER FOG LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH
MONDAY...AND ALONG A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW
TUESDAY...BUT LOW POPS AT BEST BOTH DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE SOME FOG COULD FORM THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAWN...THOUGH WILL
BE A RACE BETWEEN TEMP/DEWPOINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310522
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DRY AIR KEEPS FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONT AS DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND EVEN TO 60 AT
LYH. ALL SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE CWA AND NOT EXPECTING ANY THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS SKIES STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND MOONLIT. SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS
STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60 SOUTHSIDE
VA/ NW NC PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A
WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD LOOKS IN STORE UNDER BROAD UPPER
TROFFINESS ENHANCED VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND
CLEAR/PLEASANT NIGHTS GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER
HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NW UNDER SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED
DRYNESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS OPTING TO LEAVE OUT
ANY POPS OR SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 85-90
RANGE EAST...AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS. BETTER IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR TO BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLEST NIGHT
AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE 85H
TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW 40S
IN THE DEEPEST NW VALLEYS PENDING ANY RIVER FOG LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH
MONDAY...AND ALONG A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW
TUESDAY...BUT LOW POPS AT BEST BOTH DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE SOME FOG COULD FORM THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAWN...THOUGH WILL
BE A RACE BETWEEN TEMP/DEWPOINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310522
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DRY AIR KEEPS FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONT AS DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND EVEN TO 60 AT
LYH. ALL SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE CWA AND NOT EXPECTING ANY THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS SKIES STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND MOONLIT. SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS
STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60 SOUTHSIDE
VA/ NW NC PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A
WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD LOOKS IN STORE UNDER BROAD UPPER
TROFFINESS ENHANCED VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND
CLEAR/PLEASANT NIGHTS GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER
HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NW UNDER SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED
DRYNESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS OPTING TO LEAVE OUT
ANY POPS OR SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 85-90
RANGE EAST...AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS. BETTER IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR TO BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLEST NIGHT
AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE 85H
TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW 40S
IN THE DEEPEST NW VALLEYS PENDING ANY RIVER FOG LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH
MONDAY...AND ALONG A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW
TUESDAY...BUT LOW POPS AT BEST BOTH DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE SOME FOG COULD FORM THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAWN...THOUGH WILL
BE A RACE BETWEEN TEMP/DEWPOINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310522
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH
WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DRY AIR KEEPS FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONT AS DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND EVEN TO 60 AT
LYH. ALL SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE CWA AND NOT EXPECTING ANY THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS SKIES STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND MOONLIT. SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS
STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60 SOUTHSIDE
VA/ NW NC PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A
WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD LOOKS IN STORE UNDER BROAD UPPER
TROFFINESS ENHANCED VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND
CLEAR/PLEASANT NIGHTS GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER
HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NW UNDER SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED
DRYNESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS OPTING TO LEAVE OUT
ANY POPS OR SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 85-90
RANGE EAST...AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS. BETTER IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR TO BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLEST NIGHT
AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE 85H
TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW 40S
IN THE DEEPEST NW VALLEYS PENDING ANY RIVER FOG LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH
MONDAY...AND ALONG A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW
TUESDAY...BUT LOW POPS AT BEST BOTH DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB
WHERE SOME FOG COULD FORM THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAWN...THOUGH WILL
BE A RACE BETWEEN TEMP/DEWPOINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN
HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310225
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT...STALLING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL BE OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SLOWS
DOWN TO THE EAST AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING LONGER
OVER THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING. LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER
AIR MAY RESULTS IN SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE RIVERS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A
WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD LOOKS IN STORE UNDER BROAD UPPER
TROFFINESS ENHANCED VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND
CLEAR/PLEASANT NIGHTS GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER
HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NW UNDER SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED
DRYNESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS OPTING TO LEAVE OUT
ANY POPS OR SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 85-90
RANGE EAST...AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS. BETTER IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR TO BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLEST NIGHT
AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE 85H
TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW 40S
IN THE DEEPEST NW VALLEYS PENDING ANY RIVER FOG LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH
MONDAY...AND ALONG A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW
TUESDAY...BUT LOW POPS AT BEST BOTH DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONT. RADAR SHOWED A STORM UPSTREAM OF KDAN AND AT CURRENT
SPEED AND DIRECTION...THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE AIRPORT AROUND
01Z. NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OTHER LOCAL
TAF SITES...WHICH WERE BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN TONIGHT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS LOWERING
INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG
IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE NEW AND GREENBRIER
RIVERS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310225
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT...STALLING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL BE OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SLOWS
DOWN TO THE EAST AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING LONGER
OVER THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING. LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER
AIR MAY RESULTS IN SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE RIVERS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A
WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD LOOKS IN STORE UNDER BROAD UPPER
TROFFINESS ENHANCED VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND
CLEAR/PLEASANT NIGHTS GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER
HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NW UNDER SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED
DRYNESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS OPTING TO LEAVE OUT
ANY POPS OR SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 85-90
RANGE EAST...AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS. BETTER IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR TO BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLEST NIGHT
AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE 85H
TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW 40S
IN THE DEEPEST NW VALLEYS PENDING ANY RIVER FOG LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH
MONDAY...AND ALONG A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW
TUESDAY...BUT LOW POPS AT BEST BOTH DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONT. RADAR SHOWED A STORM UPSTREAM OF KDAN AND AT CURRENT
SPEED AND DIRECTION...THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE AIRPORT AROUND
01Z. NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OTHER LOCAL
TAF SITES...WHICH WERE BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN TONIGHT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS LOWERING
INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG
IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE NEW AND GREENBRIER
RIVERS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 302343
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
743 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...STALLING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UNSTABLE
AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN THEIR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS REMOVED THE
MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...LEAVING US IN THE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA. THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...THE RICHEST CAPES AROUND 2K
J/KG AND SFC BASED LIS AROUND MINUS 5 WHERE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. LEANED POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT TOWARDS THE LATEST HRRR WITH JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING
AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST.

DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA TONIGHT...WHILE THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN IN THE EAST AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE PIEDMONT BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY RESULTS IN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A
WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD LOOKS IN STORE UNDER BROAD UPPER
TROFFINESS ENHANCED VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND
CLEAR/PLEASANT NIGHTS GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER
HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NW UNDER SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED
DRYNESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS OPTING TO LEAVE OUT
ANY POPS OR SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 85-90
RANGE EAST...AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS. BETTER IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR TO BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLEST NIGHT
AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE 85H
TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW 40S
IN THE DEEPEST NW VALLEYS PENDING ANY RIVER FOG LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH
MONDAY...AND ALONG A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW
TUESDAY...BUT LOW POPS AT BEST BOTH DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONT. RADAR SHOWED A STORM UPSTREAM OF KDAN AND AT CURRENT
SPEED AND DIRECTION...THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE AIRPORT AROUND
01Z. NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OTHER LOCAL
TAF SITES...WHICH WERE BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN TONIGHT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS LOWERING
INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG
IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE NEW AND GREENBRIER
RIVERS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302343
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
743 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...STALLING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UNSTABLE
AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN THEIR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS REMOVED THE
MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...LEAVING US IN THE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA. THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...THE RICHEST CAPES AROUND 2K
J/KG AND SFC BASED LIS AROUND MINUS 5 WHERE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. LEANED POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT TOWARDS THE LATEST HRRR WITH JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING
AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST.

DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA TONIGHT...WHILE THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN IN THE EAST AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE PIEDMONT BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY RESULTS IN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A
WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD LOOKS IN STORE UNDER BROAD UPPER
TROFFINESS ENHANCED VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND
CLEAR/PLEASANT NIGHTS GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER
HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NW UNDER SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED
DRYNESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS OPTING TO LEAVE OUT
ANY POPS OR SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 85-90
RANGE EAST...AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS. BETTER IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR TO BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLEST NIGHT
AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE 85H
TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW 40S
IN THE DEEPEST NW VALLEYS PENDING ANY RIVER FOG LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH
MONDAY...AND ALONG A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW
TUESDAY...BUT LOW POPS AT BEST BOTH DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONT. RADAR SHOWED A STORM UPSTREAM OF KDAN AND AT CURRENT
SPEED AND DIRECTION...THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE AIRPORT AROUND
01Z. NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OTHER LOCAL
TAF SITES...WHICH WERE BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN TONIGHT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS LOWERING
INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG
IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE NEW AND GREENBRIER
RIVERS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301910
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
310 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...STALLING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UNSTABLE
AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN THEIR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS REMOVED THE
MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...LEAVING US IN THE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA. THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...THE RICHEST CAPES AROUND 2K
J/KG AND SFC BASED LIS AROUND MINUS 5 WHERE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. LEANED POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT TOWARDS THE LATEST HRRR WITH JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING
AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST.

DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA TONIGHT...WHILE THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN IN THE EAST AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE PIEDMONT BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY RESULTS IN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A
WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD LOOKS IN STORE UNDER BROAD UPPER
TROFFINESS ENHANCED VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND
CLEAR/PLEASANT NIGHTS GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER
HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NW UNDER SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED
DRYNESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS OPTING TO LEAVE OUT
ANY POPS OR SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 85-90
RANGE EAST...AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS. BETTER IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR TO BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLEST NIGHT
AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE 85H
TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW 40S
IN THE DEEPEST NW VALLEYS PENDING ANY RIVER FOG LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY
LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY
APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG
WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH
MONDAY...AND ALONG A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW
TUESDAY...BUT LOW POPS AT BEST BOTH DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF
IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED...THOUGH
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG IN GIVEN SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOIST GROUND.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR UNDER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 12 KTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301740
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 919 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MORNING 12Z/8AM RNK
SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHWEST FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER STORMS GIVEN HIGHER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
LEANED POPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS HRRR WHICH
CAPTURED CURRENT RADAR IMAGES THE BEST. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS
MORNING.

AS OF 715 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SE WV THIS
MORNING INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAIN FOCUS WORKING EAST TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND UPDATING CHANCES THROUGH 9 AM INTO THE ALLEGHANYS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT FOG TO BE ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY 13Z.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
FRONT MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING...THINK THE STORM THREAT IS LOWER
OVER THE MTNS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO STEEPEN THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A MICROBURST GIVEN HIGHER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
THE MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NE PIEDMONT NE OF LYH...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF YADKINVILLE NC. HOWEVER...THINK THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...THINKING THE WEST WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHILE THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO
THE PIEDMONT HIT UPPER 80S...LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100 FROM FARMVILLE TO DANVILLE IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA
WHILE THE FRONT EAST SLOWS DOWN AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
LINGERING LONGER. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY DAWN
FRIDAY...AND YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE
HUMIDITY IS LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S DEEPER VALLEYS
OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO MID 60S FROM ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST MODELS AREA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN A
LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES. CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S/A FEW UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEST...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. WITH COOL AIR DRAINAGE...MAY SEE A
FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF
IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED...THOUGH
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG IN GIVEN SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOIST GROUND.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR UNDER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 12 KTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONS HAVE RETURN FOR LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA AIRPORT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301740
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 919 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MORNING 12Z/8AM RNK
SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHWEST FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER STORMS GIVEN HIGHER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
LEANED POPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS HRRR WHICH
CAPTURED CURRENT RADAR IMAGES THE BEST. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS
MORNING.

AS OF 715 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SE WV THIS
MORNING INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAIN FOCUS WORKING EAST TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND UPDATING CHANCES THROUGH 9 AM INTO THE ALLEGHANYS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT FOG TO BE ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY 13Z.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
FRONT MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING...THINK THE STORM THREAT IS LOWER
OVER THE MTNS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO STEEPEN THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A MICROBURST GIVEN HIGHER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
THE MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NE PIEDMONT NE OF LYH...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF YADKINVILLE NC. HOWEVER...THINK THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...THINKING THE WEST WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHILE THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO
THE PIEDMONT HIT UPPER 80S...LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100 FROM FARMVILLE TO DANVILLE IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA
WHILE THE FRONT EAST SLOWS DOWN AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
LINGERING LONGER. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY DAWN
FRIDAY...AND YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE
HUMIDITY IS LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S DEEPER VALLEYS
OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO MID 60S FROM ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST MODELS AREA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN A
LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES. CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S/A FEW UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEST...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. WITH COOL AIR DRAINAGE...MAY SEE A
FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF
IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED...THOUGH
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG IN GIVEN SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOIST GROUND.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR UNDER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 12 KTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONS HAVE RETURN FOR LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA AIRPORT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301319
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
919 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 919 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MORNING 12Z/8AM RNK
SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHWEST FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER STORMS GIVEN HIGHER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
LEANED POPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS HRRR WHICH
CAPTURED CURRENT RADAR IMAGES THE BEST. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS
MORNING.

AS OF 715 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SE WV THIS
MORNING INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAIN FOCUS WORKING EAST TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND UPDATING CHANCES THROUGH 9 AM INTO THE ALLEGHANYS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT FOG TO BE ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY 13Z.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
FRONT MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING...THINK THE STORM THREAT IS LOWER
OVER THE MTNS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO STEEPEN THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A MICROBURST GIVEN HIGHER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
THE MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NE PIEDMONT NE OF LYH...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF YADKINVILLE NC. HOWEVER...THINK THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...THINKING THE WEST WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHILE THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO
THE PIEDMONT HIT UPPER 80S...LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100 FROM FARMVILLE TO DANVILLE IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA
WHILE THE FRONT EAST SLOWS DOWN AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
LINGERING LONGER. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY DAWN
FRIDAY...AND YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE
HUMIDITY IS LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S DEEPER VALLEYS
OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO MID 60S FROM ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST MODELS AREA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN A
LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES. CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S/A FEW UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEST...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. WITH COOL AIR DRAINAGE...MAY SEE A
FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM.
FAA NOTIFIED.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS FORM AS
FOG/LOW CLOUDS ERODE. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE LWB TERMINAL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HRS TIL 13-14Z...THEN SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TODAY. KEPT VCTS AT DAN/LYH AND THINK THIS
WILL BE WHERE BETTER COVERAGE...ALBEIT SCATTERED WILL BE GIVEN
MORE SUNSHINE TO AID IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ONCE THIS FRONT WORKS EAST THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS...THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG
IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOIST GROUND.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FROM LYNCHBURG...AND THE FAA HAS
BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. NO ESTIMATED TIME OF RESTORATION WAS
GIVEN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301319
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
919 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 919 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MORNING 12Z/8AM RNK
SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHWEST FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER STORMS GIVEN HIGHER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
LEANED POPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS HRRR WHICH
CAPTURED CURRENT RADAR IMAGES THE BEST. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS
MORNING.

AS OF 715 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SE WV THIS
MORNING INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAIN FOCUS WORKING EAST TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND UPDATING CHANCES THROUGH 9 AM INTO THE ALLEGHANYS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT FOG TO BE ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY 13Z.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
FRONT MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING...THINK THE STORM THREAT IS LOWER
OVER THE MTNS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO STEEPEN THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A MICROBURST GIVEN HIGHER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
THE MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NE PIEDMONT NE OF LYH...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF YADKINVILLE NC. HOWEVER...THINK THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...THINKING THE WEST WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHILE THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO
THE PIEDMONT HIT UPPER 80S...LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100 FROM FARMVILLE TO DANVILLE IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA
WHILE THE FRONT EAST SLOWS DOWN AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
LINGERING LONGER. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY DAWN
FRIDAY...AND YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE
HUMIDITY IS LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S DEEPER VALLEYS
OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO MID 60S FROM ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST MODELS AREA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN A
LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES. CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S/A FEW UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEST...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. WITH COOL AIR DRAINAGE...MAY SEE A
FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM.
FAA NOTIFIED.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS FORM AS
FOG/LOW CLOUDS ERODE. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE LWB TERMINAL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HRS TIL 13-14Z...THEN SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TODAY. KEPT VCTS AT DAN/LYH AND THINK THIS
WILL BE WHERE BETTER COVERAGE...ALBEIT SCATTERED WILL BE GIVEN
MORE SUNSHINE TO AID IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ONCE THIS FRONT WORKS EAST THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS...THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG
IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOIST GROUND.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FROM LYNCHBURG...AND THE FAA HAS
BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. NO ESTIMATED TIME OF RESTORATION WAS
GIVEN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301319
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
919 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 919 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MORNING 12Z/8AM RNK
SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHWEST FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER STORMS GIVEN HIGHER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
LEANED POPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS HRRR WHICH
CAPTURED CURRENT RADAR IMAGES THE BEST. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS
MORNING.

AS OF 715 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SE WV THIS
MORNING INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAIN FOCUS WORKING EAST TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND UPDATING CHANCES THROUGH 9 AM INTO THE ALLEGHANYS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT FOG TO BE ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY 13Z.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
FRONT MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING...THINK THE STORM THREAT IS LOWER
OVER THE MTNS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO STEEPEN THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A MICROBURST GIVEN HIGHER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
THE MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NE PIEDMONT NE OF LYH...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF YADKINVILLE NC. HOWEVER...THINK THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...THINKING THE WEST WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHILE THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO
THE PIEDMONT HIT UPPER 80S...LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100 FROM FARMVILLE TO DANVILLE IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA
WHILE THE FRONT EAST SLOWS DOWN AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
LINGERING LONGER. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY DAWN
FRIDAY...AND YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE
HUMIDITY IS LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S DEEPER VALLEYS
OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO MID 60S FROM ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST MODELS AREA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN A
LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES. CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S/A FEW UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEST...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. WITH COOL AIR DRAINAGE...MAY SEE A
FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM.
FAA NOTIFIED.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS FORM AS
FOG/LOW CLOUDS ERODE. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE LWB TERMINAL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HRS TIL 13-14Z...THEN SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TODAY. KEPT VCTS AT DAN/LYH AND THINK THIS
WILL BE WHERE BETTER COVERAGE...ALBEIT SCATTERED WILL BE GIVEN
MORE SUNSHINE TO AID IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ONCE THIS FRONT WORKS EAST THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS...THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG
IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOIST GROUND.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FROM LYNCHBURG...AND THE FAA HAS
BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. NO ESTIMATED TIME OF RESTORATION WAS
GIVEN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301124
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SE WV THIS
MORNING INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAIN FOCUS WORKING EAST TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND UPDATING CHANCES THROUGH 9 AM INTO THE ALLEGHANYS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT FOG TO BE ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY 13Z.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
FRONT MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING...THINK THE STORM THREAT IS LOWER
OVER THE MTNS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO STEEPEN THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A MICROBURST GIVEN HIGHER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
THE MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NE PIEDMONT NE OF LYH...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF YADKINVILLE NC. HOWEVER...THINK THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...THINKING THE WEST WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHILE THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO
THE PIEDMONT HIT UPPER 80S...LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100 FROM FARMVILLE TO DANVILLE IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA
WHILE THE FRONT EAST SLOWS DOWN AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
LINGERING LONGER. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY DAWN
FRIDAY...AND YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE
HUMIDITY IS LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S DEEPER VALLEYS
OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO MID 60S FROM ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST MODELS AREA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN A
LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES. CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S/A FEW UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEST...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. WITH COOL AIR DRAINAGE...MAY SEE A
FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM.
FAA NOTIFIED.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS FORM AS
FOG/LOW CLOUDS ERODE. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE LWB TERMINAL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HRS TIL 13-14Z...THEN SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TODAY. KEPT VCTS AT DAN/LYH AND THINK THIS
WILL BE WHERE BETTER COVERAGE...ALBEIT SCATTERED WILL BE GIVEN
MORE SUNSHINE TO AID IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ONCE THIS FRONT WORKS EAST THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS...THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG
IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOIST GROUND.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FROM LYNCHBURG...AND THE FAA HAS
BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. NO ESTIMATED TIME OF RESTORATION WAS
GIVEN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301124
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SE WV THIS
MORNING INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAIN FOCUS WORKING EAST TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND UPDATING CHANCES THROUGH 9 AM INTO THE ALLEGHANYS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT FOG TO BE ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY 13Z.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
FRONT MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING...THINK THE STORM THREAT IS LOWER
OVER THE MTNS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO STEEPEN THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A MICROBURST GIVEN HIGHER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
THE MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NE PIEDMONT NE OF LYH...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF YADKINVILLE NC. HOWEVER...THINK THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...THINKING THE WEST WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHILE THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO
THE PIEDMONT HIT UPPER 80S...LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100 FROM FARMVILLE TO DANVILLE IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA
WHILE THE FRONT EAST SLOWS DOWN AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
LINGERING LONGER. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY DAWN
FRIDAY...AND YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE
HUMIDITY IS LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S DEEPER VALLEYS
OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO MID 60S FROM ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST MODELS AREA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN A
LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES. CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S/A FEW UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEST...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. WITH COOL AIR DRAINAGE...MAY SEE A
FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM.
FAA NOTIFIED.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS FORM AS
FOG/LOW CLOUDS ERODE. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE LWB TERMINAL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HRS TIL 13-14Z...THEN SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TODAY. KEPT VCTS AT DAN/LYH AND THINK THIS
WILL BE WHERE BETTER COVERAGE...ALBEIT SCATTERED WILL BE GIVEN
MORE SUNSHINE TO AID IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ONCE THIS FRONT WORKS EAST THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS...THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG
IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOIST GROUND.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FROM LYNCHBURG...AND THE FAA HAS
BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. NO ESTIMATED TIME OF RESTORATION WAS
GIVEN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301124
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SE WV THIS
MORNING INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAIN FOCUS WORKING EAST TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND UPDATING CHANCES THROUGH 9 AM INTO THE ALLEGHANYS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT FOG TO BE ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY 13Z.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
FRONT MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING...THINK THE STORM THREAT IS LOWER
OVER THE MTNS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO STEEPEN THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A MICROBURST GIVEN HIGHER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
THE MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NE PIEDMONT NE OF LYH...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF YADKINVILLE NC. HOWEVER...THINK THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...THINKING THE WEST WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHILE THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO
THE PIEDMONT HIT UPPER 80S...LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100 FROM FARMVILLE TO DANVILLE IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA
WHILE THE FRONT EAST SLOWS DOWN AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
LINGERING LONGER. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY DAWN
FRIDAY...AND YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE
HUMIDITY IS LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S DEEPER VALLEYS
OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO MID 60S FROM ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST MODELS AREA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN A
LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES. CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S/A FEW UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEST...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. WITH COOL AIR DRAINAGE...MAY SEE A
FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM.
FAA NOTIFIED.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS FORM AS
FOG/LOW CLOUDS ERODE. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE LWB TERMINAL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HRS TIL 13-14Z...THEN SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TODAY. KEPT VCTS AT DAN/LYH AND THINK THIS
WILL BE WHERE BETTER COVERAGE...ALBEIT SCATTERED WILL BE GIVEN
MORE SUNSHINE TO AID IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ONCE THIS FRONT WORKS EAST THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS...THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG
IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOIST GROUND.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FROM LYNCHBURG...AND THE FAA HAS
BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. NO ESTIMATED TIME OF RESTORATION WAS
GIVEN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301124
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SE WV THIS
MORNING INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAIN FOCUS WORKING EAST TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND UPDATING CHANCES THROUGH 9 AM INTO THE ALLEGHANYS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT FOG TO BE ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY 13Z.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
FRONT MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING...THINK THE STORM THREAT IS LOWER
OVER THE MTNS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO STEEPEN THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A MICROBURST GIVEN HIGHER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
THE MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NE PIEDMONT NE OF LYH...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF YADKINVILLE NC. HOWEVER...THINK THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...THINKING THE WEST WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHILE THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO
THE PIEDMONT HIT UPPER 80S...LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100 FROM FARMVILLE TO DANVILLE IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA
WHILE THE FRONT EAST SLOWS DOWN AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
LINGERING LONGER. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY DAWN
FRIDAY...AND YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE
HUMIDITY IS LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S DEEPER VALLEYS
OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO MID 60S FROM ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST MODELS AREA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN A
LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES. CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S/A FEW UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEST...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. WITH COOL AIR DRAINAGE...MAY SEE A
FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM.
FAA NOTIFIED.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS FORM AS
FOG/LOW CLOUDS ERODE. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE LWB TERMINAL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HRS TIL 13-14Z...THEN SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TODAY. KEPT VCTS AT DAN/LYH AND THINK THIS
WILL BE WHERE BETTER COVERAGE...ALBEIT SCATTERED WILL BE GIVEN
MORE SUNSHINE TO AID IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ONCE THIS FRONT WORKS EAST THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS...THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG
IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOIST GROUND.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FROM LYNCHBURG...AND THE FAA HAS
BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. NO ESTIMATED TIME OF RESTORATION WAS
GIVEN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300742
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VERY LIMITED PRECIP ON RADAR THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS OVER THE NC
MTNS FADED AS THEY MOVED OUT OF THE CWA. UPSTREAM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. THERE IS A BELT OF HIGHER THETA-E ACROSS WRN WV WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING SO KEPT
AT LEAST LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE
MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE SHOWERS...EXPECT FOG TO BE PATCHY ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT RAINED WED AFTERNOON AND EAST WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD
COVER. THIS FOG IS GOING TO ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
FRONT MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING...THINK THE STORM THREAT IS LOWER
OVER THE MTNS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO STEEPEN THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A MICROBURST GIVEN HIGHER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
THE MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NE PIEDMONT NE OF LYH...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF YADKINVILLE NC. HOWEVER...THINK THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...THINKING THE WEST WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHILE THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO
THE PIEDMONT HIT UPPER 80S...LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100 FROM FARMVILLE TO DANVILLE IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA
WHILE THE FRONT EAST SLOWS DOWN AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
LINGERING LONGER. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY DAWN
FRIDAY...AND YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE
HUMIDITY IS LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S DEEPER VALLEYS
OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO MID 60S FROM ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST MODELS AREA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN A
LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES. CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S/A FEW UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEST...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. WITH COOL AIR DRAINAGE...MAY SEE A
FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM.
FAA NOTIFIED.

WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR LWB EARLY BUT THE THREAT IS SMALL.
OTHERWISE WATCHING FOR FOG FORMATION WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LIFR AT LWB/BCB AND POSSIBLY INTO THE PIEDMONT.

FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT
MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. KEPT VCTS AT LYH/DAN AND VCSH AT BLF
EARLY. AFTER FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF EXPECT VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE
ANY HEAVIER CONVECTION.

WINDS MAY GUST A BIT INTO ROA/BCB BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FROM LYNCHBURG...AND THE FAA HAS
BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. NO ESTIMATED TIME OF RESTORATION WAS
GIVEN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT. A
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY OVER WILKES TO WATAUGA AND SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA BY 03AM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STAY
SITUATED OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING GIVEN HIGHER THETA-E
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN KY/OHIO.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD REACH
THE OHIO RIVER BY 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE SWODY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND SPLITS THE MARGINAL
POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADING TO THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LIKELY TO SEE A BAND OF POST FRONTAL TYPE SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN MODEST
FORECAST INSTABILITY BEFORE THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE PUSHES TO THE
EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEAVING IN SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE SEEING CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER
ALL SECTIONS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH 85H TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN +14-16C EXPECT QUITE A FEW LOW TEMPS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH DRIER LOW/MID 60S OUT
EAST. A MAINLY SUNNY AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY LOOKS ON TAP UNDER GOOD
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. HOWEVER HEATING OF THE DRY AIR WILL
PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS...AND STILL CLOSE TO 90
SE BUT WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY.

AFTER ANOTHER RATHER COOL MORNING SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THICKNESS VALUES RISE A BIT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY TYPE DRY BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WITH
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOL ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AN UPSLOPE SPRINKLE OVER NW SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY WHEN LOW
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST OTRW TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AT BEST. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S MOUNTAINS AND
LOW/MID 60S AGAIN OUT EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM.
FAA NOTIFIED.

WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR LWB EARLY BUT THE THREAT IS SMALL.
OTHERWISE WATCHING FOR FOG FORMATION WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LIFR AT LWB/BCB AND POSSIBLY INTO THE PIEDMONT.

FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT
MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. KEPT VCTS AT LYH/DAN AND VCSH AT BLF
EARLY. AFTER FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF EXPECT VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE
ANY HEAVIER CONVECTION.

WINDS MAY GUST A BIT INTO ROA/BCB BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT. A
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY OVER WILKES TO WATAUGA AND SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA BY 03AM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STAY
SITUATED OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING GIVEN HIGHER THETA-E
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN KY/OHIO.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD REACH
THE OHIO RIVER BY 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE SWODY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND SPLITS THE MARGINAL
POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADING TO THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LIKELY TO SEE A BAND OF POST FRONTAL TYPE SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN MODEST
FORECAST INSTABILITY BEFORE THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE PUSHES TO THE
EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEAVING IN SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE SEEING CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER
ALL SECTIONS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH 85H TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN +14-16C EXPECT QUITE A FEW LOW TEMPS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH DRIER LOW/MID 60S OUT
EAST. A MAINLY SUNNY AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY LOOKS ON TAP UNDER GOOD
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. HOWEVER HEATING OF THE DRY AIR WILL
PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS...AND STILL CLOSE TO 90
SE BUT WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY.

AFTER ANOTHER RATHER COOL MORNING SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THICKNESS VALUES RISE A BIT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY TYPE DRY BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WITH
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOL ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AN UPSLOPE SPRINKLE OVER NW SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY WHEN LOW
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST OTRW TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AT BEST. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S MOUNTAINS AND
LOW/MID 60S AGAIN OUT EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM.
FAA NOTIFIED.

WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR LWB EARLY BUT THE THREAT IS SMALL.
OTHERWISE WATCHING FOR FOG FORMATION WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LIFR AT LWB/BCB AND POSSIBLY INTO THE PIEDMONT.

FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT
MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. KEPT VCTS AT LYH/DAN AND VCSH AT BLF
EARLY. AFTER FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF EXPECT VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE
ANY HEAVIER CONVECTION.

WINDS MAY GUST A BIT INTO ROA/BCB BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT. A
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY OVER WILKES TO WATAUGA AND SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA BY 03AM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STAY
SITUATED OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING GIVEN HIGHER THETA-E
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN KY/OHIO.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD REACH
THE OHIO RIVER BY 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE SWODY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND SPLITS THE MARGINAL
POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADING TO THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LIKELY TO SEE A BAND OF POST FRONTAL TYPE SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN MODEST
FORECAST INSTABILITY BEFORE THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE PUSHES TO THE
EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEAVING IN SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE SEEING CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER
ALL SECTIONS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH 85H TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN +14-16C EXPECT QUITE A FEW LOW TEMPS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH DRIER LOW/MID 60S OUT
EAST. A MAINLY SUNNY AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY LOOKS ON TAP UNDER GOOD
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. HOWEVER HEATING OF THE DRY AIR WILL
PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS...AND STILL CLOSE TO 90
SE BUT WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY.

AFTER ANOTHER RATHER COOL MORNING SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THICKNESS VALUES RISE A BIT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY TYPE DRY BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WITH
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOL ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AN UPSLOPE SPRINKLE OVER NW SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY WHEN LOW
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST OTRW TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AT BEST. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S MOUNTAINS AND
LOW/MID 60S AGAIN OUT EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM.
FAA NOTIFIED.

WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR LWB EARLY BUT THE THREAT IS SMALL.
OTHERWISE WATCHING FOR FOG FORMATION WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LIFR AT LWB/BCB AND POSSIBLY INTO THE PIEDMONT.

FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT
MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. KEPT VCTS AT LYH/DAN AND VCSH AT BLF
EARLY. AFTER FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF EXPECT VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE
ANY HEAVIER CONVECTION.

WINDS MAY GUST A BIT INTO ROA/BCB BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300153
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
953 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT. A
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOCAL WRF AND SOME RUNS OF HRRR HAVE SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AROUND 05/06Z. HAVE TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THEN HAVE
PROBABILITY INCREASING IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE NEEDED FRO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD REACH
THE OHIO RIVER BY 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE SWODY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND SPLITS THE MARGINAL
POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADING TO THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LIKELY TO SEE A BAND OF POST FRONTAL TYPE SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN MODEST
FORECAST INSTABILITY BEFORE THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE PUSHES TO THE
EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEAVING IN SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE SEEING CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER
ALL SECTIONS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH 85H TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN +14-16C EXPECT QUITE A FEW LOW TEMPS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH DRIER LOW/MID 60S OUT
EAST. A MAINLY SUNNY AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY LOOKS ON TAP UNDER GOOD
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. HOWEVER HEATING OF THE DRY AIR WILL
PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS...AND STILL CLOSE TO 90
SE BUT WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY.

AFTER ANOTHER RATHER COOL MORNING SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THICKNESS VALUES RISE A BIT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY TYPE DRY BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WITH
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOL ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AN UPSLOPE SPRINKLE OVER NW SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY WHEN LOW
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST OTRW TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AT BEST. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S MOUNTAINS AND
LOW/MID 60S AGAIN OUT EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AREA RADARS SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE RAIN WAS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AIRPORTS...BUT
NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG BY MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE APPALACHIANS AFTER 10Z/6AM. IFR TO LIFR FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AT KBCB AND KLWB.

MODELS...INCLUDING DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE ACTUAL FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO HAVE INCLUDED VC IN THE KLYH AND KDAN
TAFS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300012
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
812 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT. A
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THE WIND FLOW REMAINS
WEAK AT 5-15 KTS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO A FEW STORMS
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LIKE TUESDAY.
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF OR FADE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD
REACH THE OHIO RIVER BY 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE SWODY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND SPLITS THE MARGINAL
POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADING TO THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LIKELY TO SEE A BAND OF POST FRONTAL TYPE SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN MODEST
FORECAST INSTABILITY BEFORE THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE PUSHES TO THE
EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEAVING IN SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE SEEING CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER
ALL SECTIONS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH 85H TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN +14-16C EXPECT QUITE A FEW LOW TEMPS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH DRIER LOW/MID 60S OUT
EAST. A MAINLY SUNNY AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY LOOKS ON TAP UNDER GOOD
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. HOWEVER HEATING OF THE DRY AIR WILL
PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS...AND STILL CLOSE TO 90
SE BUT WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY.

AFTER ANOTHER RATHER COOL MORNING SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THICKNESS VALUES RISE A BIT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY TYPE DRY BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WITH
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOL ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AN UPSLOPE SPRINKLE OVER NW SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY WHEN LOW
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST OTRW TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AT BEST. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S MOUNTAINS AND
LOW/MID 60S AGAIN OUT EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AREA RADARS SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE RAIN WAS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AIRPORTS...BUT
NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG BY MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE APPALACHIANS AFTER 10Z/6AM. IFR TO LIFR FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AT KBCB AND KLWB.

MODELS...INCLUDING DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE ACTUAL FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO HAVE INCLUDED VC IN THE KLYH AND KDAN
TAFS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300012
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
812 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT. A
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY...STALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THE WIND FLOW REMAINS
WEAK AT 5-15 KTS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO A FEW STORMS
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LIKE TUESDAY.
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF OR FADE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD
REACH THE OHIO RIVER BY 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE SWODY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND SPLITS THE MARGINAL
POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADING TO THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LIKELY TO SEE A BAND OF POST FRONTAL TYPE SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN MODEST
FORECAST INSTABILITY BEFORE THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE PUSHES TO THE
EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEAVING IN SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE SEEING CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER
ALL SECTIONS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH 85H TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN +14-16C EXPECT QUITE A FEW LOW TEMPS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH DRIER LOW/MID 60S OUT
EAST. A MAINLY SUNNY AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY LOOKS ON TAP UNDER GOOD
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. HOWEVER HEATING OF THE DRY AIR WILL
PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS...AND STILL CLOSE TO 90
SE BUT WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY.

AFTER ANOTHER RATHER COOL MORNING SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THICKNESS VALUES RISE A BIT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY TYPE DRY BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WITH
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOL ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AN UPSLOPE SPRINKLE OVER NW SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY WHEN LOW
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST OTRW TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AT BEST. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S MOUNTAINS AND
LOW/MID 60S AGAIN OUT EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY-
MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT
MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH
HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE
POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AREA RADARS SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE RAIN WAS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AIRPORTS...BUT
NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG BY MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE APPALACHIANS AFTER 10Z/6AM. IFR TO LIFR FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AT KBCB AND KLWB.

MODELS...INCLUDING DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE ACTUAL FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO HAVE INCLUDED VC IN THE KLYH AND KDAN
TAFS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK




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