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000
FXUS61 KRNK 251736
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS US BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS.

PREVIOUS VALID FORECAST...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...THE ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BE IF ANY CLOUDS STAY IN
THE MTNS UNDER INVERSION. TAKING THE NAM SOLUTION WILL BE KEEPING
THE BLUE RIDGE IN MORE CLOUDS WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STAYS
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BE INCREASING FROM
THE NW LATE. DO NOT FORESEE ANY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOUNDING
FORECASTS ONLY SHOWING LAYER OF OF MOISTURE 2KFT AROUND BOONE-
ROANOKE. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST GIVEN FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTH...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

AS FOR HIGHS WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV THINKING MORE SUN...AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT UP MORE...BUT STILL A LESS HUMID
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MTNS...TO MID
80S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR NORTH. THINK THE VALLEYS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WHILE THE SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT ONLY FALLS TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...MAKING
FOR SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL
CARRY TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. WINDS
HIGHER ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST HOWEVER...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
INVERSION APPEARS WEAKEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH A DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE TROUGH TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA. OUTSIDE
OF THAT HOWEVER...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
AND INTO THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

LOOKING INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE REMNANTS OF
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WITH SOME RAIN REACHING
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 460. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL...AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...THE GREATER THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THE WEAKER THE STORMS. GIVEN THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN...BELIEVE THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE REDUCED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

ON SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...APPROACHING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...AND TRIGGER ANOTHER LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL HAVE 45KTS TO 50KTS OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS ENTERING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...MAKING FOR A DECENT THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AS THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON THIS SCENARIO. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
LATE EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY PROCEED EAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL USHER IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. WILL
BE CONCERNED MAINLY WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ANY CONVECTION EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULI GENERALLY 3 TO 6K
AGL...PATCHES OF OVERCAST BUT STAYING IN THE MVFR RANGE AT WORST.
VSBYS P6SM ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY. WINDS UNDER 10 MPH AND
VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS FORMING
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT TERMINALS WILL GET
ANY CIGS SUB VFR. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG WILL FORM...AS SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL TREND LWB DOWN TO TEMPO 1SM WITH ALL BUT
ROA/BLF GETTING MVFR/IFR VSBYS.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT FOG IN THE
VLYS OF LWB/BCB. ANOTHER FRONT IS GOING TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY.
BEFORE THIS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
SHRA/TSRA TO THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. SATURDAY IS LESS LIKELY AS
MODELS FAVOR A NWD TREND IN CONVECTION TOWARD PA/NRN VA. SUNDAY
COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NWD TRACK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND. BETTER THREAT
WILL BE WITH THE FRONT MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BY
TUESDAY DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RAINFALL YESTERDAY FELL MAINLY EAST OF THE INCREASINGLY DRY AREAS
OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASINS. U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR ISSUED YESTERDAY AND VALID AS OF 12Z TUESDAY JULY 22
SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO
MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN VA...MAINLY THE UPPER
JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS IN MUCH OF THIS AREA
ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER. JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5
INCHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL YESTERDAY (7/24) AT LYNCHBURG AIRPORT OF 3.88 INCHES WAS
2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD AFTER JULY 24 1916 WHEN 4.03 INCHES FELL.
IT WAS ALSO THE 2ND HIGHEST FOR ANY JULY DAY. WILL ISSUE PNS
(WBCPNSRNK) WITH A FEW MORE DETAILS ON THIS UNUSUAL EVENT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC
CLIMATE...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 251736
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS US BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS.

PREVIOUS VALID FORECAST...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...THE ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BE IF ANY CLOUDS STAY IN
THE MTNS UNDER INVERSION. TAKING THE NAM SOLUTION WILL BE KEEPING
THE BLUE RIDGE IN MORE CLOUDS WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STAYS
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BE INCREASING FROM
THE NW LATE. DO NOT FORESEE ANY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOUNDING
FORECASTS ONLY SHOWING LAYER OF OF MOISTURE 2KFT AROUND BOONE-
ROANOKE. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST GIVEN FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTH...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

AS FOR HIGHS WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV THINKING MORE SUN...AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT UP MORE...BUT STILL A LESS HUMID
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MTNS...TO MID
80S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR NORTH. THINK THE VALLEYS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WHILE THE SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT ONLY FALLS TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...MAKING
FOR SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL
CARRY TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. WINDS
HIGHER ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST HOWEVER...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
INVERSION APPEARS WEAKEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH A DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE TROUGH TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA. OUTSIDE
OF THAT HOWEVER...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
AND INTO THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

LOOKING INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE REMNANTS OF
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WITH SOME RAIN REACHING
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 460. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL...AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...THE GREATER THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THE WEAKER THE STORMS. GIVEN THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN...BELIEVE THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE REDUCED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

ON SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...APPROACHING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...AND TRIGGER ANOTHER LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL HAVE 45KTS TO 50KTS OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS ENTERING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...MAKING FOR A DECENT THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AS THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON THIS SCENARIO. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
LATE EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY PROCEED EAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL USHER IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. WILL
BE CONCERNED MAINLY WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ANY CONVECTION EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULI GENERALLY 3 TO 6K
AGL...PATCHES OF OVERCAST BUT STAYING IN THE MVFR RANGE AT WORST.
VSBYS P6SM ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY. WINDS UNDER 10 MPH AND
VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS FORMING
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT TERMINALS WILL GET
ANY CIGS SUB VFR. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG WILL FORM...AS SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL TREND LWB DOWN TO TEMPO 1SM WITH ALL BUT
ROA/BLF GETTING MVFR/IFR VSBYS.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT FOG IN THE
VLYS OF LWB/BCB. ANOTHER FRONT IS GOING TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY.
BEFORE THIS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
SHRA/TSRA TO THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. SATURDAY IS LESS LIKELY AS
MODELS FAVOR A NWD TREND IN CONVECTION TOWARD PA/NRN VA. SUNDAY
COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NWD TRACK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND. BETTER THREAT
WILL BE WITH THE FRONT MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BY
TUESDAY DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RAINFALL YESTERDAY FELL MAINLY EAST OF THE INCREASINGLY DRY AREAS
OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASINS. U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR ISSUED YESTERDAY AND VALID AS OF 12Z TUESDAY JULY 22
SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO
MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN VA...MAINLY THE UPPER
JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS IN MUCH OF THIS AREA
ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER. JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5
INCHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL YESTERDAY (7/24) AT LYNCHBURG AIRPORT OF 3.88 INCHES WAS
2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD AFTER JULY 24 1916 WHEN 4.03 INCHES FELL.
IT WAS ALSO THE 2ND HIGHEST FOR ANY JULY DAY. WILL ISSUE PNS
(WBCPNSRNK) WITH A FEW MORE DETAILS ON THIS UNUSUAL EVENT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC
CLIMATE...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251418
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1018 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS US BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS...MAINLY TO RAISE DEWPOINTS
SLIGHTLY AS DRIER AIR FIGHTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.

PREVIOUS VALID FORECAST...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE FORECAST DILEMMA TODAY WILL BE THE STRATOCU CURRENTLY OUT THERE
AND HOW MUCH LINGERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH
MAY LOCK IT IN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SFC FLOW WORKING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS FAVORING THETA-E RIDGE IN THE LOW LVLS
ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE. WITH HEATING FROM THE LATE JULY SUN THINK
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE WILL BE VARYING FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE 00Z NAM IS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHRA/TSRA FORMATION IN
THE NC MTNS. WILL TAKE THIS SOLUTION BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS AND HAVE A TOKEN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA NEAR BOONE/WEST JEFFERSON
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION IF ANY DISSIPATED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BE IF ANY CLOUDS STAY IN THE MTNS UNDER
INVERSION. TAKING THE NAM SOLUTION WILL BE KEEPING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
MORE CLOUDS WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STAYS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NW LATE. DO NOT FORESEE
ANY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOUNDING FORECASTS ONLY SHOWING LAYER OF
OF MOISTURE 2KFT AROUND BOONE-ROANOKE. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTH...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

AS FOR HIGHS WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV THINKING MORE SUN...AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT UP MORE...BUT STILL A LESS HUMID
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MTNS...TO MID
80S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR NORTH. THINK THE VALLEYS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WHILE THE SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT ONLY FALLS TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...MAKING
FOR SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL
CARRY TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. WINDS
HIGHER ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST HOWEVER...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
INVERSION APPEARS WEAKEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH A DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE TROUGH TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA. OUTSIDE
OF THAT HOWEVER...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
AND INTO THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

LOOKING INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE REMNANTS OF
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WITH SOME RAIN REACHING
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 460. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL...AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...THE GREATER THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THE WEAKER THE STORMS. GIVEN THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN...BELIEVE THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE REDUCED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

ON SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...APPROACHING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...AND TRIGGER ANOTHER LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL HAVE 45KTS TO 50KTS OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS ENTERING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...MAKING FOR A DECENT THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AS THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON THIS SCENARIO. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
LATE EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY PROCEED EAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL USHER IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. WILL
BE CONCERNED MAINLY WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ANY CONVECTION EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG/LOW CLOUDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE IN TERMINALS WE THOUGHT IT
WOULD BUT DID AT TIMES IN DANVILLE. THIS MORNING...SATELLITE/OBS
DEPICT IFR CIGS FROM BCB-BLF...WITH VFR/MVFR ELSEWHERE. DEPTH OF
MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO LIFT AND THIN OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING WHERE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 16-17Z.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY AVIATION ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS. COULD SEE BKN VFR CIGS NEAR ROA/BCB AND SOUTH INTO THE
NC MTNS. ISOLATED SHRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE NC MTNS.

TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS FORMING
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT TERMINALS WILL GET
ANY CIGS SUB VFR. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG WILL FORM...AS SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL TREND LWB DOWN TO TEMPO 1SM WITH ALL BUT
ROA/BLF GETTING MVFR/IFR VSBYS.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT FOG IN THE
VLYS OF LWB/BCB. ANOTHER FRONT IS GOING TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY.
BEFORE THIS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
SHRA/TSRA TO THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. SATURDAY IS LESS LIKELY AS
MODELS FAVOR A NWD TREND IN CONVECTION TOWARD PA/NRN VA. SUNDAY
COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NWD TRACK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND. BETTER THREAT
WILL BE WITH THE FRONT MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BY
TUESDAY DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RAINFALL YESTERDAY FELL MAINLY EAST OF THE INCREASINGLY DRY AREAS
OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASINS. U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR ISSUED YESTERDAY AND VALID AS OF 12Z TUESDAY JULY 22
SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO
MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN VA...MAINLY THE UPPER
JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS IN MUCH OF THIS AREA
ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER. JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5
INCHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL YESTERDAY (7/24) AT LYNCHBURG AIRPORT OF 3.88 INCHES WAS
2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD AFTER JULY 24 1916 WHEN 4.03 INCHES FELL.
IT WAS ALSO THE 2ND HIGHEST FOR ANY JULY DAY. WILL ISSUE PNS
(WBCPNSRNK) WITH A FEW MORE DETAILS ON THIS UNUSUAL EVENT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...PC
CLIMATE...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 251134
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
734 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS US BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT...BUT IS FIGHTING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LVLS ACROSS OUR CWA. MESO TRENDS SHOWING LOWER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WE HAVE BEEN STUCK WITH QUITE
A BIT OF STRATOCU OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN SHOWERS POPPING UP AROUND
ROANOKE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED BUT GIVEN SOME THETA-E RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE SRN CWA...AND FLOW TURNING MORE EAST...THINK
DRIZZLE/PATCHY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
DAWN. FOG WAS DENSE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...AS LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT EARLY. THE FOG THREAT OVERALL IS GOING TO BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE WRN MTNS AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE.

THE FORECAST DILEMMA TODAY WILL BE THE STRATOCU CURRENTLY OUT THERE
AND HOW MUCH LINGERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH
MAY LOCK IT IN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SFC FLOW WORKING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS FAVORING THETA-E RIDGE IN THE LOW LVLS
ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE. WITH HEATING FROM THE LATE JULY SUN THINK
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE WILL BE VARYING FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE 00Z NAM IS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHRA/TSRA FORMATION IN
THE NC MTNS. WILL TAKE THIS SOLUTION BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS AND HAVE A TOKEN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA NEAR BOONE/WEST JEFFERSON
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION IF ANY DISSIPATED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BE IF ANY CLOUDS STAY IN THE MTNS UNDER
INVERSION. TAKING THE NAM SOLUTION WILL BE KEEPING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
MORE CLOUDS WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STAYS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NW LATE. DO NOT FORESEE
ANY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOUNDING FORECASTS ONLY SHOWING LAYER OF
OF MOISTURE 2KFT AROUND BOONE-ROANOKE. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTH...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

AS FOR HIGHS WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV THINKING MORE SUN...AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT UP MORE...BUT STILL A LESS HUMID
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MTNS...TO MID
80S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR NORTH. THINK THE VALLEYS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WHILE THE SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT ONLY FALLS TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...MAKING
FOR SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL
CARRY TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. WINDS
HIGHER ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST HOWEVER...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
INVERSION APPEARS WEAKEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH A DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE TROUGH TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA. OUTSIDE
OF THAT HOWEVER...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
AND INTO THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

LOOKING INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE REMNANTS OF
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WITH SOME RAIN REACHING
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 460. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL...AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...THE GREATER THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THE WEAKER THE STORMS. GIVEN THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN...BELIEVE THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE REDUCED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

ON SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...APPROACHING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...AND TRIGGER ANOTHER LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL HAVE 45KTS TO 50KTS OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS ENTERING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...MAKING FOR A DECENT THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AS THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON THIS SCENARIO. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
LATE EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY PROCEED EAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL USHER IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. WILL
BE CONCERNED MAINLY WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ANY CONVECTION EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG/LOW CLOUDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE IN TERMINALS WE THOUGHT IT
WOULD BUT DID AT TIMES IN DANVILLE. THIS MORNING...SATELLITE/OBS
DEPICT IFR CIGS FROM BCB-BLF...WITH VFR/MVFR ELSEWHERE. DEPTH OF
MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO LIFT AND THIN OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING WHERE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 16-17Z.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY AVIATION ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS. COULD SEE BKN VFR CIGS NEAR ROA/BCB AND SOUTH INTO THE
NC MTNS. ISOLATED SHRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE NC MTNS.

TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS FORMING
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT TERMINALS WILL GET
ANY CIGS SUB VFR. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG WILL FORM...AS SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL TREND LWB DOWN TO TEMPO 1SM WITH ALL BUT
ROA/BLF GETTING MVFR/IFR VSBYS.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT FOG IN THE
VLYS OF LWB/BCB. ANOTHER FRONT IS GOING TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY.
BEFORE THIS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
SHRA/TSRA TO THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. SATURDAY IS LESS LIKELY AS
MODELS FAVOR A NWD TREND IN CONVECTION TOWARD PA/NRN VA. SUNDAY
COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NWD TRACK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND. BETTER THREAT
WILL BE WITH THE FRONT MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BY
TUESDAY DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 251134
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
734 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS US BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT...BUT IS FIGHTING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LVLS ACROSS OUR CWA. MESO TRENDS SHOWING LOWER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WE HAVE BEEN STUCK WITH QUITE
A BIT OF STRATOCU OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN SHOWERS POPPING UP AROUND
ROANOKE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED BUT GIVEN SOME THETA-E RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE SRN CWA...AND FLOW TURNING MORE EAST...THINK
DRIZZLE/PATCHY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
DAWN. FOG WAS DENSE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...AS LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT EARLY. THE FOG THREAT OVERALL IS GOING TO BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE WRN MTNS AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE.

THE FORECAST DILEMMA TODAY WILL BE THE STRATOCU CURRENTLY OUT THERE
AND HOW MUCH LINGERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH
MAY LOCK IT IN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SFC FLOW WORKING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS FAVORING THETA-E RIDGE IN THE LOW LVLS
ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE. WITH HEATING FROM THE LATE JULY SUN THINK
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE WILL BE VARYING FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE 00Z NAM IS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHRA/TSRA FORMATION IN
THE NC MTNS. WILL TAKE THIS SOLUTION BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS AND HAVE A TOKEN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA NEAR BOONE/WEST JEFFERSON
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION IF ANY DISSIPATED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BE IF ANY CLOUDS STAY IN THE MTNS UNDER
INVERSION. TAKING THE NAM SOLUTION WILL BE KEEPING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
MORE CLOUDS WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STAYS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NW LATE. DO NOT FORESEE
ANY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOUNDING FORECASTS ONLY SHOWING LAYER OF
OF MOISTURE 2KFT AROUND BOONE-ROANOKE. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTH...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

AS FOR HIGHS WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV THINKING MORE SUN...AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT UP MORE...BUT STILL A LESS HUMID
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MTNS...TO MID
80S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR NORTH. THINK THE VALLEYS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WHILE THE SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT ONLY FALLS TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...MAKING
FOR SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL
CARRY TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. WINDS
HIGHER ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST HOWEVER...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
INVERSION APPEARS WEAKEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH A DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE TROUGH TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA. OUTSIDE
OF THAT HOWEVER...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
AND INTO THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

LOOKING INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE REMNANTS OF
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WITH SOME RAIN REACHING
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 460. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL...AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...THE GREATER THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THE WEAKER THE STORMS. GIVEN THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN...BELIEVE THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE REDUCED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

ON SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...APPROACHING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...AND TRIGGER ANOTHER LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL HAVE 45KTS TO 50KTS OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS ENTERING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...MAKING FOR A DECENT THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AS THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON THIS SCENARIO. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
LATE EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY PROCEED EAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL USHER IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. WILL
BE CONCERNED MAINLY WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ANY CONVECTION EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG/LOW CLOUDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE IN TERMINALS WE THOUGHT IT
WOULD BUT DID AT TIMES IN DANVILLE. THIS MORNING...SATELLITE/OBS
DEPICT IFR CIGS FROM BCB-BLF...WITH VFR/MVFR ELSEWHERE. DEPTH OF
MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO LIFT AND THIN OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING WHERE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 16-17Z.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY AVIATION ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS. COULD SEE BKN VFR CIGS NEAR ROA/BCB AND SOUTH INTO THE
NC MTNS. ISOLATED SHRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE NC MTNS.

TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS FORMING
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT TERMINALS WILL GET
ANY CIGS SUB VFR. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG WILL FORM...AS SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL TREND LWB DOWN TO TEMPO 1SM WITH ALL BUT
ROA/BLF GETTING MVFR/IFR VSBYS.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT FOG IN THE
VLYS OF LWB/BCB. ANOTHER FRONT IS GOING TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY.
BEFORE THIS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
SHRA/TSRA TO THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. SATURDAY IS LESS LIKELY AS
MODELS FAVOR A NWD TREND IN CONVECTION TOWARD PA/NRN VA. SUNDAY
COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NWD TRACK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND. BETTER THREAT
WILL BE WITH THE FRONT MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BY
TUESDAY DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 250836
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
436 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS US BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT...BUT IS FIGHTING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LVLS ACROSS OUR CWA. MESO TRENDS SHOWING LOWER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WE HAVE BEEN STUCK WITH QUITE
A BIT OF STRATOCU OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN SHOWERS POPPING UP AROUND
ROANOKE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED BUT GIVEN SOME THETA-E RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE SRN CWA...AND FLOW TURNING MORE EAST...THINK
DRIZZLE/PATCHY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
DAWN. FOG WAS DENSE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...AS LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT EARLY. THE FOG THREAT OVERALL IS GOING TO BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE WRN MTNS AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE.

THE FORECAST DILEMMA TODAY WILL BE THE STRATOCU CURRENTLY OUT THERE
AND HOW MUCH LINGERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH
MAY LOCK IT IN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SFC FLOW WORKING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS FAVORING THETA-E RIDGE IN THE LOW LVLS
ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE. WITH HEATING FROM THE LATE JULY SUN THINK
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE WILL BE VARYING FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE 00Z NAM IS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHRA/TSRA FORMATION IN
THE NC MTNS. WILL TAKE THIS SOLUTION BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS AND HAVE A TOKEN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA NEAR BOONE/WEST JEFFERSON
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION IF ANY DISSIPATED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BE IF ANY CLOUDS STAY IN THE MTNS UNDER
INVERSION. TAKING THE NAM SOLUTION WILL BE KEEPING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
MORE CLOUDS WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STAYS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NW LATE. DO NOT FORESEE
ANY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOUNDING FORECASTS ONLY SHOWING LAYER OF
OF MOISTURE 2KFT AROUND BOONE-ROANOKE. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTH...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

AS FOR HIGHS WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV THINKING MORE SUN...AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT UP MORE...BUT STILL A LESS HUMID
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MTNS...TO MID
80S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR NORTH. THINK THE VALLEYS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WHILE THE SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT ONLY FALLS TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...MAKING
FOR SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL
CARRY TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. WINDS
HIGHER ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST HOWEVER...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
INVERSION APPEARS WEAKEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH A DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE TROUGH TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA. OUTSIDE
OF THAT HOWEVER...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
AND INTO THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

LOOKING INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE REMNANTS OF
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WITH SOME RAIN REACHING
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 460. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL...AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...THE GREATER THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THE WEAKER THE STORMS. GIVEN THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN...BELIEVE THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE REDUCED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

ON SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...APPROACHING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...AND TRIGGER ANOTHER LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL HAVE 45KTS TO 50KTS OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS ENTERING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...MAKING FOR A DECENT THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AS THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON THIS SCENARIO. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
LATE EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY PROCEED EAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL USHER IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. WILL
BE CONCERNED MAINLY WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ANY CONVECTION EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AVIATION FORECAST PROVING DIFFICULT THIS MORNING WITH SHRA POPPING
UP IN ROANOKE. CIGS AROUND THE AREA VARY FROM VFR AT
LWB/LYH/BLF...TO IFR AT ROA/DAN. THINK THE OVERALL REGIME THIS
MORNING WILL BE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR FOG.
DRIER AIR SIFTING SE TOWARD SE WV...AND IF THE LEVELS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE REALIZED AT
BLF/LWB...AS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS JUST WEST TOWARD FAR SW VA
INTO ERN KY. HIGHER DEWPOINTS OUT EAST PLUS HEAVIER RAIN FROM
THURSDAY WILL KEEP/BRING CIGS UNDER 1KFT THIS MORNING. SAME FOR
ROANOKE. BCB IS IFFY BUT WE HAD SHOWERS...SO VARIABLY IFR TO MVFR
HERE. CONFIDENCE HIGH ON SUB VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT LOW
ON VSBYS/CIGS.

SFC HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS SE OVERHEAD. MAY
BE A CASE WHERE CLOUDS STAY STUCK UNDER INVERSION LONGER WITH LACK
OF MIXING. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH VFR EXPECTED THOUGH SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS STUCK
ACROSS DAN-TNB CORRIDOR...SO COULD SEE SOME BKN HIGH END MVFR CIGS
HERE...LOWER IN THE MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS BCB.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THOUGH SO KEPT VFR FOR NOW. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING SOME SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE AND
POTENTIALLY UP TO BCB/BLF. AGAIN THINK DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS SITUATED SOUTH OF BLF/BCB/DAN.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT FOG IN THE
VLYS OF LWB/BCB. ANOTHER FRONT IS GOING TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY.
BEFORE THIS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
SHRA/TSRA TO THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. SATURDAY IS LESS LIKELY AS
MODELS FAVOR A NWD TREND IN CONVECTION TOWARD PA/NRN VA. SUNDAY
COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NWD TRACK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND. BETTER THREAT
WILL BE WITH THE FRONT MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BY
TUESDAY DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 250836
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
436 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS US BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT...BUT IS FIGHTING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LVLS ACROSS OUR CWA. MESO TRENDS SHOWING LOWER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WE HAVE BEEN STUCK WITH QUITE
A BIT OF STRATOCU OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN SHOWERS POPPING UP AROUND
ROANOKE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED BUT GIVEN SOME THETA-E RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE SRN CWA...AND FLOW TURNING MORE EAST...THINK
DRIZZLE/PATCHY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
DAWN. FOG WAS DENSE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...AS LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT EARLY. THE FOG THREAT OVERALL IS GOING TO BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE WRN MTNS AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE.

THE FORECAST DILEMMA TODAY WILL BE THE STRATOCU CURRENTLY OUT THERE
AND HOW MUCH LINGERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH
MAY LOCK IT IN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SFC FLOW WORKING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS FAVORING THETA-E RIDGE IN THE LOW LVLS
ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE. WITH HEATING FROM THE LATE JULY SUN THINK
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE WILL BE VARYING FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE 00Z NAM IS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHRA/TSRA FORMATION IN
THE NC MTNS. WILL TAKE THIS SOLUTION BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS AND HAVE A TOKEN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA NEAR BOONE/WEST JEFFERSON
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION IF ANY DISSIPATED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BE IF ANY CLOUDS STAY IN THE MTNS UNDER
INVERSION. TAKING THE NAM SOLUTION WILL BE KEEPING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
MORE CLOUDS WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STAYS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NW LATE. DO NOT FORESEE
ANY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOUNDING FORECASTS ONLY SHOWING LAYER OF
OF MOISTURE 2KFT AROUND BOONE-ROANOKE. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTH...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

AS FOR HIGHS WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV THINKING MORE SUN...AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT UP MORE...BUT STILL A LESS HUMID
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MTNS...TO MID
80S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR NORTH. THINK THE VALLEYS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WHILE THE SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT ONLY FALLS TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...MAKING
FOR SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL
CARRY TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. WINDS
HIGHER ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST HOWEVER...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
INVERSION APPEARS WEAKEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH A DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE TROUGH TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA. OUTSIDE
OF THAT HOWEVER...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
AND INTO THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

LOOKING INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE REMNANTS OF
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WITH SOME RAIN REACHING
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 460. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL...AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...THE GREATER THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THE WEAKER THE STORMS. GIVEN THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN...BELIEVE THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE REDUCED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

ON SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...APPROACHING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...AND TRIGGER ANOTHER LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL HAVE 45KTS TO 50KTS OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS ENTERING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...MAKING FOR A DECENT THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AS THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON THIS SCENARIO. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
LATE EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY PROCEED EAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL USHER IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. WILL
BE CONCERNED MAINLY WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ANY CONVECTION EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AVIATION FORECAST PROVING DIFFICULT THIS MORNING WITH SHRA POPPING
UP IN ROANOKE. CIGS AROUND THE AREA VARY FROM VFR AT
LWB/LYH/BLF...TO IFR AT ROA/DAN. THINK THE OVERALL REGIME THIS
MORNING WILL BE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR FOG.
DRIER AIR SIFTING SE TOWARD SE WV...AND IF THE LEVELS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE REALIZED AT
BLF/LWB...AS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS JUST WEST TOWARD FAR SW VA
INTO ERN KY. HIGHER DEWPOINTS OUT EAST PLUS HEAVIER RAIN FROM
THURSDAY WILL KEEP/BRING CIGS UNDER 1KFT THIS MORNING. SAME FOR
ROANOKE. BCB IS IFFY BUT WE HAD SHOWERS...SO VARIABLY IFR TO MVFR
HERE. CONFIDENCE HIGH ON SUB VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT LOW
ON VSBYS/CIGS.

SFC HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS SE OVERHEAD. MAY
BE A CASE WHERE CLOUDS STAY STUCK UNDER INVERSION LONGER WITH LACK
OF MIXING. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH VFR EXPECTED THOUGH SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS STUCK
ACROSS DAN-TNB CORRIDOR...SO COULD SEE SOME BKN HIGH END MVFR CIGS
HERE...LOWER IN THE MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS BCB.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THOUGH SO KEPT VFR FOR NOW. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING SOME SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE AND
POTENTIALLY UP TO BCB/BLF. AGAIN THINK DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS SITUATED SOUTH OF BLF/BCB/DAN.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT FOG IN THE
VLYS OF LWB/BCB. ANOTHER FRONT IS GOING TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY.
BEFORE THIS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
SHRA/TSRA TO THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. SATURDAY IS LESS LIKELY AS
MODELS FAVOR A NWD TREND IN CONVECTION TOWARD PA/NRN VA. SUNDAY
COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NWD TRACK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND. BETTER THREAT
WILL BE WITH THE FRONT MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BY
TUESDAY DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 250558
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...

UPDATE AS SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY ARE POPPING UP IN/AROUND ROANOKE.
MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH POOLING OF
SOME HIGHER THETA-E IN THIS AREA. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT NEAR/EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SO UPPED POPS TO 20ISH TO COVER THIS. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN LOW LVL
MOISTURE DEPTH AND SFC FLOW TURNING MORE NE-E.

DRIER AIR IS LAGGING SO HAVE ALSO UPPED DEWPOINTS PER LATEST
TRENDS..

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONCERN THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALL
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND AREAS WHERE LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT PERSIST WILL LIKELY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS DRIER AIR
WILL LIKELY NOT ADVECT SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK FRI. HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY DENSE FG TO AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S NW AND L/M 60S FAR SE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MID-JULY NORMALS..RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NW TO M/U
80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
AREA...THEN DRIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WARM MOIST ADVECTION IN NORTHERN
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I64. HOWEVER...
BETTER THREAT FOR EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORT WAVE TROF IN ITS WAKE HELPS TO AMPLIFY WHAT WILL
BECOME AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY/DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WOULD IMPLY MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...MINIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC DUE TO
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING...DISPLACEMENT FROM BETTER
DYNAMICS...AND PREFRONTAL STORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE WELL AFTER TIME OF
BEST HEATING ON SUNDAY.

REGARDLESS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HELP TO ADVECT SOME VERY WARM AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...TO 90F OR A BIT ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS/THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FRONT NOT LIKELY TO CLEAR THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND BETTER
PREFRONTAL INSOLATION MAY HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE
80S BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITH ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED FRONTAL
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST APPEARS TO WARRANT
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AVIATION FORECAST PROVING DIFFICULT THIS MORNING WITH SHRA POPPING
UP IN ROANOKE. CIGS AROUND THE AREA VARY FROM VFR AT
LWB/LYH/BLF...TO IFR AT ROA/DAN. THINK THE OVERALL REGIME THIS
MORNING WILL BE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR FOG.
DRIER AIR SIFTING SE TOWARD SE WV...AND IF THE LEVELS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE REALIZED AT
BLF/LWB...AS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS JUST WEST TOWARD FAR SW VA
INTO ERN KY. HIGHER DEWPOINTS OUT EAST PLUS HEAVIER RAIN FROM
THURSDAY WILL KEEP/BRING CIGS UNDER 1KFT THIS MORNING. SAME FOR
ROANOKE. BCB IS IFFY BUT WE HAD SHOWERS...SO VARIABLY IFR TO MVFR
HERE. CONFIDENCE HIGH ON SUB VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT LOW
ON VSBYS/CIGS.

SFC HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS SE OVERHEAD. MAY
BE A CASE WHERE CLOUDS STAY STUCK UNDER INVERSION LONGER WITH LACK
OF MIXING. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH VFR EXPECTED THOUGH SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS STUCK
ACROSS DAN-TNB CORRIDOR...SO COULD SEE SOME BKN HIGH END MVFR CIGS
HERE...LOWER IN THE MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS BCB.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THOUGH SO KEPT VFR FOR NOW. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING SOME SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE AND
POTENTIALLY UP TO BCB/BLF. AGAIN THINK DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS SITUATED SOUTH OF BLF/BCB/DAN.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT FOG IN THE
VLYS OF LWB/BCB. ANOTHER FRONT IS GOING TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY.
BEFORE THIS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
SHRA/TSRA TO THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. SATURDAY IS LESS LIKELY AS
MODELS FAVOR A NWD TREND IN CONVECTION TOWARD PA/NRN VA. SUNDAY
COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NWD TRACK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND. BETTER THREAT
WILL BE WITH THE FRONT MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BY
TUESDAY DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 250558
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...

UPDATE AS SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY ARE POPPING UP IN/AROUND ROANOKE.
MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH POOLING OF
SOME HIGHER THETA-E IN THIS AREA. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT NEAR/EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SO UPPED POPS TO 20ISH TO COVER THIS. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN LOW LVL
MOISTURE DEPTH AND SFC FLOW TURNING MORE NE-E.

DRIER AIR IS LAGGING SO HAVE ALSO UPPED DEWPOINTS PER LATEST
TRENDS..

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONCERN THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALL
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND AREAS WHERE LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT PERSIST WILL LIKELY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS DRIER AIR
WILL LIKELY NOT ADVECT SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK FRI. HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY DENSE FG TO AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S NW AND L/M 60S FAR SE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MID-JULY NORMALS..RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NW TO M/U
80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
AREA...THEN DRIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WARM MOIST ADVECTION IN NORTHERN
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I64. HOWEVER...
BETTER THREAT FOR EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORT WAVE TROF IN ITS WAKE HELPS TO AMPLIFY WHAT WILL
BECOME AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY/DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WOULD IMPLY MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...MINIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC DUE TO
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING...DISPLACEMENT FROM BETTER
DYNAMICS...AND PREFRONTAL STORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE WELL AFTER TIME OF
BEST HEATING ON SUNDAY.

REGARDLESS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HELP TO ADVECT SOME VERY WARM AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...TO 90F OR A BIT ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS/THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FRONT NOT LIKELY TO CLEAR THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND BETTER
PREFRONTAL INSOLATION MAY HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE
80S BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITH ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED FRONTAL
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST APPEARS TO WARRANT
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AVIATION FORECAST PROVING DIFFICULT THIS MORNING WITH SHRA POPPING
UP IN ROANOKE. CIGS AROUND THE AREA VARY FROM VFR AT
LWB/LYH/BLF...TO IFR AT ROA/DAN. THINK THE OVERALL REGIME THIS
MORNING WILL BE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR FOG.
DRIER AIR SIFTING SE TOWARD SE WV...AND IF THE LEVELS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE REALIZED AT
BLF/LWB...AS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS JUST WEST TOWARD FAR SW VA
INTO ERN KY. HIGHER DEWPOINTS OUT EAST PLUS HEAVIER RAIN FROM
THURSDAY WILL KEEP/BRING CIGS UNDER 1KFT THIS MORNING. SAME FOR
ROANOKE. BCB IS IFFY BUT WE HAD SHOWERS...SO VARIABLY IFR TO MVFR
HERE. CONFIDENCE HIGH ON SUB VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT LOW
ON VSBYS/CIGS.

SFC HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS SE OVERHEAD. MAY
BE A CASE WHERE CLOUDS STAY STUCK UNDER INVERSION LONGER WITH LACK
OF MIXING. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH VFR EXPECTED THOUGH SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS STUCK
ACROSS DAN-TNB CORRIDOR...SO COULD SEE SOME BKN HIGH END MVFR CIGS
HERE...LOWER IN THE MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS BCB.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THOUGH SO KEPT VFR FOR NOW. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING SOME SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE AND
POTENTIALLY UP TO BCB/BLF. AGAIN THINK DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS SITUATED SOUTH OF BLF/BCB/DAN.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT FOG IN THE
VLYS OF LWB/BCB. ANOTHER FRONT IS GOING TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY.
BEFORE THIS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
SHRA/TSRA TO THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. SATURDAY IS LESS LIKELY AS
MODELS FAVOR A NWD TREND IN CONVECTION TOWARD PA/NRN VA. SUNDAY
COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NWD TRACK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND. BETTER THREAT
WILL BE WITH THE FRONT MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BY
TUESDAY DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 250346
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1146 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION HAS ENDED...BUT NORTHEAST SFC WINDS BEHIND FRONT
PROLONGING LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY -RA EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SOMEWHAT OF AN ATYPICAL SITUATION BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...INCREASING CONCERN THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALL NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
AREAS WHERE LOW CLOUDS DO NOT PERSIST WILL LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY NOT ADVECT SIGNIFICANTLY INTO
THE CWA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRI. HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY DENSE FG
AND -DZ TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...HENCE BEST
UPSLOPE AREAS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK.

AS OF 830 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE CWA HAS ENDED AS DEWPOINT FRONT APPEARS
TO BE ALMOST ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE CWA. ALL SHRA/TSRA HAVE PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT FOR SOME SPOTTY -SHRA ALONG THE WIND
SHIFT FROM LEXINGTON-ROANOKE-FLOYD. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED. FOR 10 PM
UPDATE...WILL BE REMOVING ALL MENTION OF TSRA COMPLETELY AND JUST
HAVE SMALL/SLIGHT CHC POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WEAK WIND
CONVERGENCE STILL IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN FORECAST...SO SLOWED COOLING TREND SLIGHTLY WITH EARLIER
UPDATE.

AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS STILL ONGOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WV BORDER WELL OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. ACTIVITY IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND A SHORT-WAVE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IN THE MEANTIME...A
MODEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR IS LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NICKEL SIZE HAIL
REPORTS HAVE COME IN FROM SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...PWATS 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES IN THAT SAME AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCAL RUNOFF
ISSUES POSSIBLE. SEVERAL CELLS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ABOUT ONE HOUR BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MORE SERIOUS
WATER ISSUES. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THEY DO COULD SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING...ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO GRIDS AFTER 06Z. FRIDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S NW AND L/M 60S FAR SE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO MID-JULY NORMALS..RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NW TO M/U 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
AREA...THEN DRIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WARM MOIST ADVECTION IN NORTHERN
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I64. HOWEVER...
BETTER THREAT FOR EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORT WAVE TROF IN ITS WAKE HELPS TO AMPLIFY WHAT WILL
BECOME AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY/DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WOULD IMPLY MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...MINIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC DUE TO
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING...DISPLACEMENT FROM BETTER
DYNAMICS...AND PREFRONTAL STORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE WELL AFTER TIME OF
BEST HEATING ON SUNDAY.

REGARDLESS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HELP TO ADVECT SOME VERY WARM AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...TO 90F OR A BIT ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS/THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FRONT NOT LIKELY TO CLEAR THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND BETTER
PREFRONTAL INSOLATION MAY HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE
80S BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITH ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED FRONTAL
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST APPEARS TO WARRANT
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA AIDED BY LINE OF
CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH A FEW -SHRA OR -RA WILL BE NEAR/VICINITY OF
DAN/LYH FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER AND VISIBILITY. ORIENTATION OF
FRONT/FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN NE SFC WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TO THE
WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN MORE POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT THAN NORMALLY WOULD BE SEEN. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...DIMINISHING AFT
18Z. FEEL THAT CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW END VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR RANGE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...TO INCLUDE
BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN. PERIODS OF MVFR BR ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH SAW HEAVIER RAINFALL...NAMELY LYH/DAN...BUT IFR/LIFR
BR EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT NOT EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...INCLUDING BLF/LWB...A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT STORY. WINDS NW
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL PROMOTE TYPICAL UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER.
BLF ALREADY SEEING THIS WITH BKN005 OVC012. LWB WILL LIKELY SEE
RADIATIONAL FOG LATER AS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
THUS...EXPECT CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS TO LARGELY BE IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS...POTENTIALLY LIFR BLF...AND MVFR-IFR
VSBYS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MID-DAY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. AS NOTED ABOVE...UNUSUAL
ATYPICAL POST FRONTAL WIND DIRECTION...GENERALLY NE 5-7KTS THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...EXPECT BLF-LWB...NW 5KTS...BECOMING VRB-NE
AFT 13Z FRI.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI-SAT...EXCEPT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 250346
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1146 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION HAS ENDED...BUT NORTHEAST SFC WINDS BEHIND FRONT
PROLONGING LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY -RA EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SOMEWHAT OF AN ATYPICAL SITUATION BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...INCREASING CONCERN THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALL NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
AREAS WHERE LOW CLOUDS DO NOT PERSIST WILL LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY NOT ADVECT SIGNIFICANTLY INTO
THE CWA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRI. HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY DENSE FG
AND -DZ TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...HENCE BEST
UPSLOPE AREAS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK.

AS OF 830 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE CWA HAS ENDED AS DEWPOINT FRONT APPEARS
TO BE ALMOST ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE CWA. ALL SHRA/TSRA HAVE PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT FOR SOME SPOTTY -SHRA ALONG THE WIND
SHIFT FROM LEXINGTON-ROANOKE-FLOYD. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED. FOR 10 PM
UPDATE...WILL BE REMOVING ALL MENTION OF TSRA COMPLETELY AND JUST
HAVE SMALL/SLIGHT CHC POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WEAK WIND
CONVERGENCE STILL IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN FORECAST...SO SLOWED COOLING TREND SLIGHTLY WITH EARLIER
UPDATE.

AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS STILL ONGOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WV BORDER WELL OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. ACTIVITY IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND A SHORT-WAVE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IN THE MEANTIME...A
MODEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR IS LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NICKEL SIZE HAIL
REPORTS HAVE COME IN FROM SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...PWATS 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES IN THAT SAME AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCAL RUNOFF
ISSUES POSSIBLE. SEVERAL CELLS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ABOUT ONE HOUR BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MORE SERIOUS
WATER ISSUES. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THEY DO COULD SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING...ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO GRIDS AFTER 06Z. FRIDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S NW AND L/M 60S FAR SE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO MID-JULY NORMALS..RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NW TO M/U 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
AREA...THEN DRIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WARM MOIST ADVECTION IN NORTHERN
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I64. HOWEVER...
BETTER THREAT FOR EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORT WAVE TROF IN ITS WAKE HELPS TO AMPLIFY WHAT WILL
BECOME AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY/DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WOULD IMPLY MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...MINIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC DUE TO
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING...DISPLACEMENT FROM BETTER
DYNAMICS...AND PREFRONTAL STORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE WELL AFTER TIME OF
BEST HEATING ON SUNDAY.

REGARDLESS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HELP TO ADVECT SOME VERY WARM AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...TO 90F OR A BIT ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS/THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FRONT NOT LIKELY TO CLEAR THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND BETTER
PREFRONTAL INSOLATION MAY HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE
80S BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITH ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED FRONTAL
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST APPEARS TO WARRANT
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA AIDED BY LINE OF
CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH A FEW -SHRA OR -RA WILL BE NEAR/VICINITY OF
DAN/LYH FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER AND VISIBILITY. ORIENTATION OF
FRONT/FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN NE SFC WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TO THE
WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN MORE POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT THAN NORMALLY WOULD BE SEEN. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...DIMINISHING AFT
18Z. FEEL THAT CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW END VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR RANGE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...TO INCLUDE
BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN. PERIODS OF MVFR BR ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH SAW HEAVIER RAINFALL...NAMELY LYH/DAN...BUT IFR/LIFR
BR EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT NOT EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...INCLUDING BLF/LWB...A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT STORY. WINDS NW
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL PROMOTE TYPICAL UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER.
BLF ALREADY SEEING THIS WITH BKN005 OVC012. LWB WILL LIKELY SEE
RADIATIONAL FOG LATER AS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
THUS...EXPECT CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS TO LARGELY BE IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS...POTENTIALLY LIFR BLF...AND MVFR-IFR
VSBYS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MID-DAY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. AS NOTED ABOVE...UNUSUAL
ATYPICAL POST FRONTAL WIND DIRECTION...GENERALLY NE 5-7KTS THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...EXPECT BLF-LWB...NW 5KTS...BECOMING VRB-NE
AFT 13Z FRI.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI-SAT...EXCEPT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 250049
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
849 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE CWA HAS ENDED AS DEWPOINT FRONT APPEARS
TO BE ALMOST ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE CWA. ALL SHRA/TSRA HAVE PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT FOR SOME SPOTTY -SHRA ALONG THE WIND
SHIFT FROM LEXINGTON-ROANOKE-FLOYD. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED. FOR 10 PM
UPDATE...WILL BE REMOVING ALL MENTION OF TSRA COMPLETELY AND JUST
HAVE SMALL/SLIGHT CHC POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WEAK WIND
CONVERGENCE STILL IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN FORECAST...SO SLOWED COOLING TREND SLIGHTLY WITH EARLIER
UPDATE.

AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS STILL ONGOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WV BORDER WELL OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. ACTIVITY IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND A SHORT-WAVE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IN THE MEANTIME...A
MODEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR IS LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NICKEL SIZE HAIL
REPORTS HAVE COME IN FROM SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...PWATS 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES IN THAT SAME AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCAL RUNOFF
ISSUES POSSIBLE. SEVERAL CELLS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ABOUT ONE HOUR BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MORE SERIOUS
WATER ISSUES. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THEY DO COULD SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING...ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO GRIDS AFTER 06Z. FRIDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S NW AND L/M 60S FAR SE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO MID-JULY NORMALS..RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NW TO M/U 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
AREA...THEN DRIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WARM MOIST ADVECTION IN NORTHERN
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I64. HOWEVER...
BETTER THREAT FOR EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORT WAVE TROF IN ITS WAKE HELPS TO AMPLIFY WHAT WILL
BECOME AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY/DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WOULD IMPLY MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...MINIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC DUE TO
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING...DISPLACEMENT FROM BETTER
DYNAMICS...AND PREFRONTAL STORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE WELL AFTER TIME OF
BEST HEATING ON SUNDAY.

REGARDLESS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HELP TO ADVECT SOME VERY WARM AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...TO 90F OR A BIT ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS/THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FRONT NOT LIKELY TO CLEAR THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND BETTER
PREFRONTAL INSOLATION MAY HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE
80S BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITH ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED FRONTAL
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST APPEARS TO WARRANT
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA AIDED BY LINE OF
CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH A FEW -SHRA OR -RA WILL BE NEAR/VICINITY OF
DAN/LYH FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER AND VISIBILITY. ORIENTATION OF
FRONT/FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN NE SFC WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TO THE
WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN MORE POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT THAN NORMALLY WOULD BE SEEN. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...DIMINISHING AFT
18Z. FEEL THAT CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW END VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR RANGE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...TO INCLUDE
BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN. PERIODS OF MVFR BR ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH SAW HEAVIER RAINFALL...NAMELY LYH/DAN...BUT IFR/LIFR
BR EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT NOT EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...INCLUDING BLF/LWB...A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT STORY. WINDS NW
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL PROMOTE TYPICAL UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER.
BLF ALREADY SEEING THIS WITH BKN005 OVC012. LWB WILL LIKELY SEE
RADIATIONAL FOG LATER AS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
THUS...EXPECT CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS TO LARGELY BE IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS...POTENTIALLY LIFR BLF...AND MVFR-IFR
VSBYS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MID-DAY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. AS NOTED ABOVE...UNUSUAL
ATYPICAL POST FRONTAL WIND DIRECTION...GENERALLY NE 5-7KTS THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...EXPECT BLF-LWB...NW 5KTS...BECOMING VRB-NE
AFT 13Z FRI.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI-SAT...EXCEPT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 250049
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
849 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE CWA HAS ENDED AS DEWPOINT FRONT APPEARS
TO BE ALMOST ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE CWA. ALL SHRA/TSRA HAVE PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT FOR SOME SPOTTY -SHRA ALONG THE WIND
SHIFT FROM LEXINGTON-ROANOKE-FLOYD. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED. FOR 10 PM
UPDATE...WILL BE REMOVING ALL MENTION OF TSRA COMPLETELY AND JUST
HAVE SMALL/SLIGHT CHC POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WEAK WIND
CONVERGENCE STILL IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN FORECAST...SO SLOWED COOLING TREND SLIGHTLY WITH EARLIER
UPDATE.

AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS STILL ONGOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WV BORDER WELL OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. ACTIVITY IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND A SHORT-WAVE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IN THE MEANTIME...A
MODEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR IS LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NICKEL SIZE HAIL
REPORTS HAVE COME IN FROM SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...PWATS 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES IN THAT SAME AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCAL RUNOFF
ISSUES POSSIBLE. SEVERAL CELLS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ABOUT ONE HOUR BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MORE SERIOUS
WATER ISSUES. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THEY DO COULD SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING...ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO GRIDS AFTER 06Z. FRIDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S NW AND L/M 60S FAR SE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO MID-JULY NORMALS..RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NW TO M/U 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
AREA...THEN DRIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WARM MOIST ADVECTION IN NORTHERN
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I64. HOWEVER...
BETTER THREAT FOR EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORT WAVE TROF IN ITS WAKE HELPS TO AMPLIFY WHAT WILL
BECOME AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY/DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WOULD IMPLY MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...MINIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC DUE TO
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING...DISPLACEMENT FROM BETTER
DYNAMICS...AND PREFRONTAL STORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE WELL AFTER TIME OF
BEST HEATING ON SUNDAY.

REGARDLESS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HELP TO ADVECT SOME VERY WARM AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...TO 90F OR A BIT ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS/THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FRONT NOT LIKELY TO CLEAR THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND BETTER
PREFRONTAL INSOLATION MAY HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE
80S BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITH ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED FRONTAL
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST APPEARS TO WARRANT
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA AIDED BY LINE OF
CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH A FEW -SHRA OR -RA WILL BE NEAR/VICINITY OF
DAN/LYH FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER AND VISIBILITY. ORIENTATION OF
FRONT/FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN NE SFC WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TO THE
WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN MORE POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT THAN NORMALLY WOULD BE SEEN. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...DIMINISHING AFT
18Z. FEEL THAT CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW END VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR RANGE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...TO INCLUDE
BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN. PERIODS OF MVFR BR ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH SAW HEAVIER RAINFALL...NAMELY LYH/DAN...BUT IFR/LIFR
BR EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT NOT EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...INCLUDING BLF/LWB...A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT STORY. WINDS NW
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL PROMOTE TYPICAL UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER.
BLF ALREADY SEEING THIS WITH BKN005 OVC012. LWB WILL LIKELY SEE
RADIATIONAL FOG LATER AS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
THUS...EXPECT CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS TO LARGELY BE IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS...POTENTIALLY LIFR BLF...AND MVFR-IFR
VSBYS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MID-DAY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. AS NOTED ABOVE...UNUSUAL
ATYPICAL POST FRONTAL WIND DIRECTION...GENERALLY NE 5-7KTS THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...EXPECT BLF-LWB...NW 5KTS...BECOMING VRB-NE
AFT 13Z FRI.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI-SAT...EXCEPT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 250014
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
814 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS STILL ONGOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WV BORDER WELL OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. ACTIVITY IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND A SHORT-WAVE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IN THE MEANTIME...A
MODEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR IS LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NICKEL SIZE HAIL
REPORTS HAVE COME IN FROM SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...PWATS 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES IN THAT SAME AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCAL RUNOFF
ISSUES POSSIBLE. SEVERAL CELLS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ABOUT ONE HOUR BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MORE SERIOUS
WATER ISSUES. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THEY DO COULD SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING...ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO GRIDS AFTER 06Z. FRIDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S NW AND L/M 60S FAR SE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO MID-JULY NORMALS..RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NW TO M/U 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
AREA...THEN DRIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WARM MOIST ADVECTION IN NORTHERN
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I64. HOWEVER...
BETTER THREAT FOR EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORT WAVE TROF IN ITS WAKE HELPS TO AMPLIFY WHAT WILL
BECOME AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY/DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WOULD IMPLY MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...MINIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC DUE TO
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING...DISPLACEMENT FROM BETTER
DYNAMICS...AND PREFRONTAL STORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE WELL AFTER TIME OF
BEST HEATING ON SUNDAY.

REGARDLESS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HELP TO ADVECT SOME VERY WARM AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...TO 90F OR A BIT ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS/THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FRONT NOT LIKELY TO CLEAR THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND BETTER
PREFRONTAL INSOLATION MAY HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE
80S BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITH ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED FRONTAL
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST APPEARS TO WARRANT
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA AIDED BY LINE OF
CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH A FEW -SHRA OR -RA WILL BE NEAR/VICINITY OF
DAN/LYH FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER AND VISIBILITY. ORIENTATION OF
FRONT/FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN NE SFC WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TO THE
WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN MORE POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT THAN NORMALLY WOULD BE SEEN. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...DIMINISHING AFT
18Z. FEEL THAT CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW END VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR RANGE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...TO INCLUDE
BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN. PERIODS OF MVFR BR ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH SAW HEAVIER RAINFALL...NAMELY LYH/DAN...BUT IFR/LIFR
BR EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT NOT EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...INCLUDING BLF/LWB...A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT STORY. WINDS NW
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL PROMOTE TYPICAL UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER.
BLF ALREADY SEEING THIS WITH BKN005 OVC012. LWB WILL LIKELY SEE
RADIATIONAL FOG LATER AS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
THUS...EXPECT CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS TO LARGELY BE IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS...POTENTIALLY LIFR BLF...AND MVFR-IFR
VSBYS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MID-DAY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. AS NOTED ABOVE...UNUSUAL
ATYPICAL POST FRONTAL WIND DIRECTION...GENERALLY NE 5-7KTS THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...EXPECT BLF-LWB...NW 5KTS...BECOMING VRB-NE
AFT 13Z FRI.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI-SAT...EXCEPT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 250014
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
814 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS STILL ONGOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WV BORDER WELL OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. ACTIVITY IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND A SHORT-WAVE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IN THE MEANTIME...A
MODEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR IS LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NICKEL SIZE HAIL
REPORTS HAVE COME IN FROM SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...PWATS 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES IN THAT SAME AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCAL RUNOFF
ISSUES POSSIBLE. SEVERAL CELLS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ABOUT ONE HOUR BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MORE SERIOUS
WATER ISSUES. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THEY DO COULD SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING...ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO GRIDS AFTER 06Z. FRIDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S NW AND L/M 60S FAR SE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO MID-JULY NORMALS..RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NW TO M/U 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
AREA...THEN DRIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WARM MOIST ADVECTION IN NORTHERN
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I64. HOWEVER...
BETTER THREAT FOR EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORT WAVE TROF IN ITS WAKE HELPS TO AMPLIFY WHAT WILL
BECOME AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY/DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WOULD IMPLY MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...MINIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC DUE TO
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING...DISPLACEMENT FROM BETTER
DYNAMICS...AND PREFRONTAL STORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE WELL AFTER TIME OF
BEST HEATING ON SUNDAY.

REGARDLESS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HELP TO ADVECT SOME VERY WARM AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...TO 90F OR A BIT ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS/THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FRONT NOT LIKELY TO CLEAR THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND BETTER
PREFRONTAL INSOLATION MAY HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE
80S BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITH ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED FRONTAL
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST APPEARS TO WARRANT
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA AIDED BY LINE OF
CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH A FEW -SHRA OR -RA WILL BE NEAR/VICINITY OF
DAN/LYH FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER AND VISIBILITY. ORIENTATION OF
FRONT/FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN NE SFC WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TO THE
WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN MORE POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT THAN NORMALLY WOULD BE SEEN. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...DIMINISHING AFT
18Z. FEEL THAT CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW END VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR RANGE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...TO INCLUDE
BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN. PERIODS OF MVFR BR ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH SAW HEAVIER RAINFALL...NAMELY LYH/DAN...BUT IFR/LIFR
BR EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT NOT EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...INCLUDING BLF/LWB...A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT STORY. WINDS NW
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL PROMOTE TYPICAL UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER.
BLF ALREADY SEEING THIS WITH BKN005 OVC012. LWB WILL LIKELY SEE
RADIATIONAL FOG LATER AS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
THUS...EXPECT CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS TO LARGELY BE IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS...POTENTIALLY LIFR BLF...AND MVFR-IFR
VSBYS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MID-DAY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. AS NOTED ABOVE...UNUSUAL
ATYPICAL POST FRONTAL WIND DIRECTION...GENERALLY NE 5-7KTS THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...EXPECT BLF-LWB...NW 5KTS...BECOMING VRB-NE
AFT 13Z FRI.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI-SAT...EXCEPT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 241948
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS STILL ONGOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WV BORDER WELL OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. ACTIVITY IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND A SHORT-WAVE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IN THE MEANTIME...A
MODEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR IS LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NICKEL SIZE HAIL
REPORTS HAVE COME IN FROM SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...PWATS 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES IN THAT SAME AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCAL RUNOFF
ISSUES POSSIBLE. SEVERAL CELLS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ABOUT ONE HOUR BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MORE SERIOUS
WATER ISSUES. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THEY DO COULD SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING...ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO GRIDS AFTER 06Z. FRIDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S NW AND L/M 60S FAR SE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO MID-JULY NORMALS..RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NW TO M/U 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
AREA...THEN DRIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WARM MOIST ADVECTION IN NORTHERN
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I64. HOWEVER...
BETTER THREAT FOR EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORT WAVE TROF IN ITS WAKE HELPS TO AMPLIFY WHAT WILL
BECOME AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY/DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WOULD IMPLY MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...MINIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC DUE TO
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING...DISPLACEMENT FROM BETTER
DYNAMICS...AND PREFRONTAL STORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE WELL AFTER TIME OF
BEST HEATING ON SUNDAY.

REGARDLESS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HELP TO ADVECT SOME VERY WARM AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...TO 90F OR A BIT ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNUSUALLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS/THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FRONT NOT LIKELY TO CLEAR THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND BETTER
PREFRONTAL INSOLATION MAY HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE
80S BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITH ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED FRONTAL
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST APPEARS TO WARRANT
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO AND THEN OVER BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MANY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S.

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY ON THURSDAY TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE SCANT AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AFFECTING ALL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS OT TEMPO COVERAGE. CONVECTION
MOVING EAST AT 10-15 MPH BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOULD EXIT THE MOUNTAINS
BY 22-23Z AND DAN/LYH BY 00-01Z.

FOG LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON
LOCAL RAINFALL AND SPEED OF DRY AIR ARRIVAL. THINK LWB/BCB WILL
HAVE DENSE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AND REDUCED VSBYS AT
OTHER SITES POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME. DURING
THIS TIME MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT IN TSRA AND FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PC/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241746
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN SETS UP
FOR POTENTIAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE REGION ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOUT ON SCHEDULE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS SHORT-WAVE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CWA. WITH UNSTABLE AND WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL THREAT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH-RES WRF HAD DECENT HANDLE ON INITIALIZATION WITH BULK OF
EARLY MORNING LOCATED ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CWA AND SHOWING
ADDITIONAL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. RAMPED
UP POPS TO LIKELY MOST AREAS BY THEN 18-19Z BUT MODEL SHOWS PRECIP
SHIFTING EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.
HPC QPF GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES BUT VERY UNEVEN AS USUAL
WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OTHERS NONE AT
ALL. SPC ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK OF SVR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH MIGHT DEPEND ON GETTING SOME BREAKS IN
OVERCAST TO HELP GENERATE MORE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHATEVER THE
FRONT CAN PROVIDE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AT THIS MORNING
WITH 14Z OBS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOWING A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BUT WITH DRIER AIR IS STILL WELL BACK TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHERE MID-50S DEWPOINTS CAN BE FOUND.
STILL UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA. THIS FRONT COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES
WHICH MAY EXIST.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

TONIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF AREA
WITH SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EAST THEN DRY IT OUT BY MIDNIGHT/EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHEN
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AT 5H SHIFTS ACROSS. LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THOUGH PROXIMITY OF FRONT THAT STALLS OVER
ERN NC/SC MAY INHIBIT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE SE CWA
UNTIL FRIDAY. LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TURNING WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE NE-E. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S ROANOKE TO MID 80S EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AFFECTING ALL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS OT TEMPO COVERAGE. CONVECTION
MOVING EAST AT 10-15 MPH BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOULD EXIT THE MOUNTAINS
BY 22-23Z AND DAN/LYH BY 00-01Z.

FOG LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON
LOCAL RAINFALL AND SPEED OF DRY AIR ARRIVAL. THINK LWB/BCB WILL
HAVE DENSE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AND REDUCED VSBYS AT
OTHER SITES POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME. DURING
THIS TIME MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT IN TSRA AND FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE OF RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...PM/WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241746
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN SETS UP
FOR POTENTIAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE REGION ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOUT ON SCHEDULE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS SHORT-WAVE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CWA. WITH UNSTABLE AND WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL THREAT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH-RES WRF HAD DECENT HANDLE ON INITIALIZATION WITH BULK OF
EARLY MORNING LOCATED ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CWA AND SHOWING
ADDITIONAL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. RAMPED
UP POPS TO LIKELY MOST AREAS BY THEN 18-19Z BUT MODEL SHOWS PRECIP
SHIFTING EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.
HPC QPF GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES BUT VERY UNEVEN AS USUAL
WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OTHERS NONE AT
ALL. SPC ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK OF SVR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH MIGHT DEPEND ON GETTING SOME BREAKS IN
OVERCAST TO HELP GENERATE MORE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHATEVER THE
FRONT CAN PROVIDE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AT THIS MORNING
WITH 14Z OBS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOWING A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BUT WITH DRIER AIR IS STILL WELL BACK TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHERE MID-50S DEWPOINTS CAN BE FOUND.
STILL UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA. THIS FRONT COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES
WHICH MAY EXIST.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

TONIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF AREA
WITH SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EAST THEN DRY IT OUT BY MIDNIGHT/EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHEN
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AT 5H SHIFTS ACROSS. LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THOUGH PROXIMITY OF FRONT THAT STALLS OVER
ERN NC/SC MAY INHIBIT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE SE CWA
UNTIL FRIDAY. LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TURNING WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE NE-E. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S ROANOKE TO MID 80S EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AFFECTING ALL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS OT TEMPO COVERAGE. CONVECTION
MOVING EAST AT 10-15 MPH BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOULD EXIT THE MOUNTAINS
BY 22-23Z AND DAN/LYH BY 00-01Z.

FOG LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON
LOCAL RAINFALL AND SPEED OF DRY AIR ARRIVAL. THINK LWB/BCB WILL
HAVE DENSE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AND REDUCED VSBYS AT
OTHER SITES POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME. DURING
THIS TIME MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT IN TSRA AND FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 60-DAY RAINFALL NUMBERS NOT MUCH BETTER.
JULY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA WITH AN
AVERAGE OF RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...PM/WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 241417
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN
SETS UP FOR POTENTIAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
A NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND INCORPORATING SHORT-
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HIGH-RES WRF HAD DECENT HANDLE ON
INITIALIZATION WITH BULK OF EARLY MORNING LOCATED ACTIVITY EAST
OF THE CWA AND SHOWING ADDITIONAL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY MOST AREAS BY THEN
18-19Z BUT MODEL SHOWS PRECIP SHIFTING EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE
FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HPC QPF GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES BUT VERY UNEVEN AS USUAL WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OTHERS NONE AT ALL. SPC ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHT
RISK OF SVR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH MIGHT
DEPEND ON GETTING SOME BREAKS IN OVERCAST TO HELP GENERATE MORE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHATEVER THE FRONT CAN PROVIDE IN THE WAY
OF A TRIGGER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AT THIS MORNING
WITH 14Z OBS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOWING A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BUT WITH DRIER AIR IS STILL WELL BACK TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHERE MID-50S DEWPOINTS CAN BE FOUND.
STILL UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA. THIS FRONT COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES
WHICH MAY EXIST.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

TONIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF AREA
WITH SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EAST THEN DRY IT OUT BY MIDNIGHT/EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHEN
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AT 5H SHIFTS ACROSS. LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THOUGH PROXIMITY OF FRONT THAT STALLS OVER
ERN NC/SC MAY INHIBIT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE SE CWA
UNTIL FRIDAY. LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TURNING WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE NE-E. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S ROANOKE TO MID 80S EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS PLUS ADDED RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG
AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT
LIVED. SHOWERS ARE GOING TO BRING TEMP MVFR VSBYS TO DAN TO START
THE TERMINALS.

HIGH-RES MODELS FAVOR MORE CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF WV INTO VA
AREA BY MIDDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE ROA/LYH/DAN CORRIDOR.
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS IN BUT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
HIGH RES MODELS OVERALL TO ADD TEMPO THUNDER IN AT LYH/DAN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CIGS TO BE MVFR IN THE MTNS EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY/18Z.

CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS BY 21-22Z AND DAN/LYH BY 00Z.

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY AS DRY AIR MAY BE SLOW TO ARRIVE IN
EARNEST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS AND WITH CLEARING THINK
FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AT MOST SITES. THINK LWB/BCB WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG AT LEAST BEFORE THE DRY AIR ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME. DURING
THIS TIME MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT IN TSRA AND FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL JULY RAINFALL...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE
WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...PM/WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 241417
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN
SETS UP FOR POTENTIAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
A NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND INCORPORATING SHORT-
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HIGH-RES WRF HAD DECENT HANDLE ON
INITIALIZATION WITH BULK OF EARLY MORNING LOCATED ACTIVITY EAST
OF THE CWA AND SHOWING ADDITIONAL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY MOST AREAS BY THEN
18-19Z BUT MODEL SHOWS PRECIP SHIFTING EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE
FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HPC QPF GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES BUT VERY UNEVEN AS USUAL WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OTHERS NONE AT ALL. SPC ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHT
RISK OF SVR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH MIGHT
DEPEND ON GETTING SOME BREAKS IN OVERCAST TO HELP GENERATE MORE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHATEVER THE FRONT CAN PROVIDE IN THE WAY
OF A TRIGGER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AT THIS MORNING
WITH 14Z OBS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOWING A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BUT WITH DRIER AIR IS STILL WELL BACK TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHERE MID-50S DEWPOINTS CAN BE FOUND.
STILL UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA. THIS FRONT COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES
WHICH MAY EXIST.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

TONIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF AREA
WITH SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EAST THEN DRY IT OUT BY MIDNIGHT/EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHEN
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AT 5H SHIFTS ACROSS. LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THOUGH PROXIMITY OF FRONT THAT STALLS OVER
ERN NC/SC MAY INHIBIT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE SE CWA
UNTIL FRIDAY. LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TURNING WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE NE-E. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S ROANOKE TO MID 80S EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS PLUS ADDED RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG
AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT
LIVED. SHOWERS ARE GOING TO BRING TEMP MVFR VSBYS TO DAN TO START
THE TERMINALS.

HIGH-RES MODELS FAVOR MORE CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF WV INTO VA
AREA BY MIDDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE ROA/LYH/DAN CORRIDOR.
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS IN BUT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
HIGH RES MODELS OVERALL TO ADD TEMPO THUNDER IN AT LYH/DAN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CIGS TO BE MVFR IN THE MTNS EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY/18Z.

CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS BY 21-22Z AND DAN/LYH BY 00Z.

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY AS DRY AIR MAY BE SLOW TO ARRIVE IN
EARNEST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS AND WITH CLEARING THINK
FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AT MOST SITES. THINK LWB/BCB WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG AT LEAST BEFORE THE DRY AIR ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME. DURING
THIS TIME MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT IN TSRA AND FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING AND VALID THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY JULY 22 SHOWED EXPANSION OF THE EXISTING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN
VA...MAINLY THE UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES OR ONLY 25 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL JULY RAINFALL...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE
WETTEST MONTH IN OUR CWA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...PM/WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...PC





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241148
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE
PATTERN SETS UP FOR POTENTIAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON A NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT MORE COVERAGE IN THE PIEDMONT WITH
LESS IN THE WEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE FRONT AND MORE CONVECTION WILL
FIRE UP AND MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HAMPER SEVERITY OF THE STORMS OVER THE MTNS BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER EAST FOR BREAKS IN THE OVC TO OCCUR TO
ALLOW FOR MORE TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...


A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST IS
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH MAIN BATCH OF SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. DESPITE INCREASING CIN AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND UPPER SUPPORT KEEPING SOME
STORMS ACROSS NW NC PIEDMONT INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. 4Z HRRR HANDLED THIS
PRETTY WELL...AND FOLLOWED SOME OF THIS INTO THE MORNING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM NORTH OF CRW WEST TO SOUTH OF CVG AND
SOUTH TOWARD BNA THIS MORNING. SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TN
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SENDING THE FRONT WELL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THEN.
STILL UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS ACROSS IL THIS MORNING IS GOING TO
MOVE INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY THOUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS 5 PERCENT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SOLAR INSOLATION MAY BE LIMITED
AS CLOUD COVER PER SAT TRENDS AND MODEL RH FORECASTS SUGGEST BKN-
OVC.

THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH CLOUDS/CONVECTION BUT STILL
WARM WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF AREA
WITH SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EAST THEN DRY IT OUT BY MIDNIGHT/EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHEN
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AT 5H SHIFTS ACROSS. LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THOUGH PROXIMITY OF FRONT THAT STALLS OVER
ERN NC/SC MAY INHIBIT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE SE CWA
UNTIL FRIDAY. LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TURNING WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE NE-E. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S ROANOKE TO MID 80S EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS PLUS ADDED RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG
AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT
LIVED. SHOWERS ARE GOING TO BRING TEMP MVFR VSBYS TO DAN TO START
THE TERMINALS.

HIGH-RES MODELS FAVOR MORE CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF WV INTO VA
AREA BY MIDDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE ROA/LYH/DAN CORRIDOR.
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS IN BUT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
HIGH RES MODELS OVERALL TO ADD TEMPO THUNDER IN AT LYH/DAN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CIGS TO BE MVFR IN THE MTNS EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY/18Z.

CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS BY 21-22Z AND DAN/LYH BY 00Z.

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY AS DRY AIR MAY BE SLOW TO ARRIVE IN
EARNEST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS AND WITH CLEARING THINK
FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AT MOST SITES. THINK LWB/BCB WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG AT LEAST BEFORE THE DRY AIR ARRIVES.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME. DURING
THIS TIME MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT IN TSRA AND FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM/WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 241148
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE
PATTERN SETS UP FOR POTENTIAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON A NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT MORE COVERAGE IN THE PIEDMONT WITH
LESS IN THE WEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE FRONT AND MORE CONVECTION WILL
FIRE UP AND MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HAMPER SEVERITY OF THE STORMS OVER THE MTNS BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER EAST FOR BREAKS IN THE OVC TO OCCUR TO
ALLOW FOR MORE TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...


A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST IS
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH MAIN BATCH OF SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. DESPITE INCREASING CIN AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND UPPER SUPPORT KEEPING SOME
STORMS ACROSS NW NC PIEDMONT INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. 4Z HRRR HANDLED THIS
PRETTY WELL...AND FOLLOWED SOME OF THIS INTO THE MORNING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM NORTH OF CRW WEST TO SOUTH OF CVG AND
SOUTH TOWARD BNA THIS MORNING. SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TN
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SENDING THE FRONT WELL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THEN.
STILL UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS ACROSS IL THIS MORNING IS GOING TO
MOVE INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY THOUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS 5 PERCENT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SOLAR INSOLATION MAY BE LIMITED
AS CLOUD COVER PER SAT TRENDS AND MODEL RH FORECASTS SUGGEST BKN-
OVC.

THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH CLOUDS/CONVECTION BUT STILL
WARM WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF AREA
WITH SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EAST THEN DRY IT OUT BY MIDNIGHT/EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHEN
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AT 5H SHIFTS ACROSS. LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THOUGH PROXIMITY OF FRONT THAT STALLS OVER
ERN NC/SC MAY INHIBIT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE SE CWA
UNTIL FRIDAY. LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TURNING WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE NE-E. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S ROANOKE TO MID 80S EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS PLUS ADDED RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG
AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT
LIVED. SHOWERS ARE GOING TO BRING TEMP MVFR VSBYS TO DAN TO START
THE TERMINALS.

HIGH-RES MODELS FAVOR MORE CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF WV INTO VA
AREA BY MIDDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE ROA/LYH/DAN CORRIDOR.
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS IN BUT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
HIGH RES MODELS OVERALL TO ADD TEMPO THUNDER IN AT LYH/DAN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CIGS TO BE MVFR IN THE MTNS EARLY BEFORE
BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY/18Z.

CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS BY 21-22Z AND DAN/LYH BY 00Z.

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY AS DRY AIR MAY BE SLOW TO ARRIVE IN
EARNEST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS AND WITH CLEARING THINK
FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AT MOST SITES. THINK LWB/BCB WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG AT LEAST BEFORE THE DRY AIR ARRIVES.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
EACH MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES COULD
BRING A GOOD THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME. DURING
THIS TIME MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT IN TSRA AND FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM/WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 240802
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
402 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE
PATTERN SETS UP FOR POTENTIAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON A NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST IS
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH MAIN BATCH OF SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. DESPITE INCREASING CIN AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND UPPER SUPPORT KEEPING SOME
STORMS ACROSS NW NC PIEDMONT INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. 4Z HRRR HANDLED THIS
PRETTY WELL...AND FOLLOWED SOME OF THIS INTO THE MORNING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM NORTH OF CRW WEST TO SOUTH OF CVG AND
SOUTH TOWARD BNA THIS MORNING. SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TN
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SENDING THE FRONT WELL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THEN.
STILL UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS ACROSS IL THIS MORNING IS GOING TO
MOVE INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY THOUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS 5 PERCENT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SOLAR INSOLATION MAY BE LIMITED
AS CLOUD COVER PER SAT TRENDS AND MODEL RH FORECASTS SUGGEST BKN-
OVC.

THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH CLOUDS/CONVECTION BUT STILL
WARM WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF AREA
WITH SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EAST THEN DRY IT OUT BY MIDNIGHT/EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHEN
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AT 5H SHIFTS ACROSS. LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THOUGH PROXIMITY OF FRONT THAT STALLS OVER
ERN NC/SC MAY INHIBIT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE SE CWA
UNTIL FRIDAY. LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TURNING WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE NE-E. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S ROANOKE TO MID 80S EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST NORTH OF ROA AND NW OF LYH...WITH MAINLY SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST. WILL HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW THEN SHOULD BE A
BREAK AROUND DAWN-14Z. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SHOWERS BY 09Z ACROSS
THE NC PIEDMONT AND PUSHING IT TO DAN. NOT SEEING THIS YET...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS HAPPENING PER DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY WILL OCCUR IF STORMS LOOK TO
PUSH INTO THE TERMINALS.

ASIDE FROM CONVECTION WILL BE DEALING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR FOG DUE
TO HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE. CLOUDINESS THOUGH SHOULD LIMIT
THE LOWER VSBYS.

STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES...BUT DID ADD A VCTS
AT ALL TAF SITES. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
18Z THUR AND 00Z FRI...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM/WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 240802
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
402 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE
PATTERN SETS UP FOR POTENTIAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON A NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST IS
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH MAIN BATCH OF SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. DESPITE INCREASING CIN AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND UPPER SUPPORT KEEPING SOME
STORMS ACROSS NW NC PIEDMONT INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. 4Z HRRR HANDLED THIS
PRETTY WELL...AND FOLLOWED SOME OF THIS INTO THE MORNING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM NORTH OF CRW WEST TO SOUTH OF CVG AND
SOUTH TOWARD BNA THIS MORNING. SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TN
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SENDING THE FRONT WELL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THEN.
STILL UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS ACROSS IL THIS MORNING IS GOING TO
MOVE INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY THOUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS 5 PERCENT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SOLAR INSOLATION MAY BE LIMITED
AS CLOUD COVER PER SAT TRENDS AND MODEL RH FORECASTS SUGGEST BKN-
OVC.

THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH CLOUDS/CONVECTION BUT STILL
WARM WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF AREA
WITH SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EAST THEN DRY IT OUT BY MIDNIGHT/EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHEN
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AT 5H SHIFTS ACROSS. LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THOUGH PROXIMITY OF FRONT THAT STALLS OVER
ERN NC/SC MAY INHIBIT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE SE CWA
UNTIL FRIDAY. LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TURNING WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE NE-E. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S ROANOKE TO MID 80S EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST NORTH OF ROA AND NW OF LYH...WITH MAINLY SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST. WILL HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW THEN SHOULD BE A
BREAK AROUND DAWN-14Z. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SHOWERS BY 09Z ACROSS
THE NC PIEDMONT AND PUSHING IT TO DAN. NOT SEEING THIS YET...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS HAPPENING PER DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY WILL OCCUR IF STORMS LOOK TO
PUSH INTO THE TERMINALS.

ASIDE FROM CONVECTION WILL BE DEALING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR FOG DUE
TO HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE. CLOUDINESS THOUGH SHOULD LIMIT
THE LOWER VSBYS.

STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES...BUT DID ADD A VCTS
AT ALL TAF SITES. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
18Z THUR AND 00Z FRI...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM/WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 240549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH A DAY OR TWO
OF DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY HELPING TO TRIGGER MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 918 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STORMS IN EASTERN KY/WV ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY PICKING UP INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO UNSTABLE AIR...EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED CAPES GREATER THAN 2800 J/KG.

23Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES THE TREND OF STRENGTHENING THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WV AND THE MOUNTAINS OF VA THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS RE- FIRE
ALONG DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE TROF IN THE VA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT
VERY LATE TONIGHT. ALSO INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA.

NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA
BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
OVER THE PIEDMONT LATER IN THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEATING AND
MORE INSTABILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
WITH STILL VERY HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING
FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DIURNAL RANGE LIMITED TOMORROW AS
WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8F LOWER THAN TODAYS WARM VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE DRY
AIR...THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL THAT MUCH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IF ANYTHING...INCREASED SUNSHINE
WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST OUR JULY NORMALS
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN WARMING BACK UP SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST NORTH OF ROA AND NW OF LYH...WITH MAINLY SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST. WILL HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW THEN SHOULD BE A
BREAK AROUND DAWN-14Z. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SHOWERS BY 09Z ACROSS
THE NC PIEDMONT AND PUSHING IT TO DAN. NOT SEEING THIS YET...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS HAPPENING PER DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY WILL OCCUR IF STORMS LOOK TO
PUSH INTO THE TERMINALS.

ASIDE FROM CONVECTION WILL BE DEALING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR FOG DUE
TO HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE. CLOUDINESS THOUGH SHOULD LIMIT
THE LOWER VSBYS.

STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES...BUT DID ADD A VCTS
AT ALL TAF SITES. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
18Z THUR AND 00Z FRI...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC/PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 240549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH A DAY OR TWO
OF DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY HELPING TO TRIGGER MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 918 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STORMS IN EASTERN KY/WV ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY PICKING UP INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO UNSTABLE AIR...EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED CAPES GREATER THAN 2800 J/KG.

23Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES THE TREND OF STRENGTHENING THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WV AND THE MOUNTAINS OF VA THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS RE- FIRE
ALONG DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE TROF IN THE VA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT
VERY LATE TONIGHT. ALSO INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA.

NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA
BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
OVER THE PIEDMONT LATER IN THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEATING AND
MORE INSTABILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
WITH STILL VERY HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING
FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DIURNAL RANGE LIMITED TOMORROW AS
WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8F LOWER THAN TODAYS WARM VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE DRY
AIR...THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL THAT MUCH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IF ANYTHING...INCREASED SUNSHINE
WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST OUR JULY NORMALS
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN WARMING BACK UP SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST NORTH OF ROA AND NW OF LYH...WITH MAINLY SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST. WILL HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW THEN SHOULD BE A
BREAK AROUND DAWN-14Z. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SHOWERS BY 09Z ACROSS
THE NC PIEDMONT AND PUSHING IT TO DAN. NOT SEEING THIS YET...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS HAPPENING PER DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY WILL OCCUR IF STORMS LOOK TO
PUSH INTO THE TERMINALS.

ASIDE FROM CONVECTION WILL BE DEALING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR FOG DUE
TO HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE. CLOUDINESS THOUGH SHOULD LIMIT
THE LOWER VSBYS.

STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES...BUT DID ADD A VCTS
AT ALL TAF SITES. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
18Z THUR AND 00Z FRI...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC/PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 240118
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
918 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH A DAY OR TWO
OF DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY HELPING TO TRIGGER MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 918 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STORMS IN EASTERN KY/WV ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY PICKING UP INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO UNSTABLE AIR...EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED CAPES GREATER THAN 2800 J/KG.

23Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES THE TREND OF STRENGTHENING THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WV AND THE MOUNTAINS OF VA THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS RE- FIRE
ALONG DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE TROF IN THE VA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT
VERY LATE TONIGHT. ALSO INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA.

NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA
BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
OVER THE PIEDMONT LATER IN THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEATING AND
MORE INSTABILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
WITH STILL VERY HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING
FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DIURNAL RANGE LIMITED TOMORROW AS
WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8F LOWER THAN TODAYS WARM VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE DRY
AIR...THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL THAT MUCH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IF ANYTHING...INCREASED SUNSHINE
WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST OUR JULY NORMALS
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN WARMING BACK UP SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...THROUGH 01Z...STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER KDAN. OTHERWISE...VCTS WAS CARRIED FOR THE OTHER TAF
SITES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS TRIGGERED A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. AS
A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY MOVE BACK INTO OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KLWB AND KBCB LATE TONIGHT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE COVERAGE OF THE
FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO A BLANKET OF VFR CLOUDS.

STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES...BUT DID ADD
A VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 18Z THUR AND 00Z FRI...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 715 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS BACK UP AND IS OPERATING AT FULL STRENGTH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC/PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/PH
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 240118
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
918 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH A DAY OR TWO
OF DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY HELPING TO TRIGGER MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 918 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STORMS IN EASTERN KY/WV ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY PICKING UP INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO UNSTABLE AIR...EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED CAPES GREATER THAN 2800 J/KG.

23Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES THE TREND OF STRENGTHENING THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WV AND THE MOUNTAINS OF VA THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS RE- FIRE
ALONG DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE TROF IN THE VA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT
VERY LATE TONIGHT. ALSO INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA.

NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA
BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
OVER THE PIEDMONT LATER IN THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEATING AND
MORE INSTABILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
WITH STILL VERY HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING
FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DIURNAL RANGE LIMITED TOMORROW AS
WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8F LOWER THAN TODAYS WARM VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE DRY
AIR...THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL THAT MUCH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IF ANYTHING...INCREASED SUNSHINE
WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST OUR JULY NORMALS
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN WARMING BACK UP SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...THROUGH 01Z...STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER KDAN. OTHERWISE...VCTS WAS CARRIED FOR THE OTHER TAF
SITES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS TRIGGERED A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. AS
A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY MOVE BACK INTO OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KLWB AND KBCB LATE TONIGHT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE COVERAGE OF THE
FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO A BLANKET OF VFR CLOUDS.

STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES...BUT DID ADD
A VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 18Z THUR AND 00Z FRI...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 715 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS BACK UP AND IS OPERATING AT FULL STRENGTH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC/PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/PH
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 232327
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH A DAY OR TWO
OF DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY HELPING TO TRIGGER MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEARING 70F AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ATTENDANT LOCAL
RUNOFF ISSUES. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
LATER THIS EVENING. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA BY THU
MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER
THE PIEDMONT LATER IN THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
STILL VERY HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DIURNAL RANGE LIMITED TOMORROW AS
WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8F LOWER THAN TODAYS WARM VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE DRY
AIR...THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL THAT MUCH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IF ANYTHING...INCREASED SUNSHINE
WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST OUR JULY NORMALS
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN WARMING BACK UP SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...THROUGH 01Z...STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER KDAN. OTHERWISE...VCTS WAS CARRIED FOR THE OTHER TAF
SITES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS TRIGGERED A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. AS
A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY MOVE BACK INTO OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KLWB AND KBCB LATE TONIGHT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE COVERAGE OF THE
FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO A BLANKET OF VFR CLOUDS.

STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES...BUT DID ADD
A VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 18Z THUR AND 00Z FRI...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 715 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS BACK UP AND IS OPERATING AT FULL STRENGTH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/PH
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 232327
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH A DAY OR TWO
OF DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY HELPING TO TRIGGER MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEARING 70F AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ATTENDANT LOCAL
RUNOFF ISSUES. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
LATER THIS EVENING. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA BY THU
MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER
THE PIEDMONT LATER IN THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
STILL VERY HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DIURNAL RANGE LIMITED TOMORROW AS
WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8F LOWER THAN TODAYS WARM VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE DRY
AIR...THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL THAT MUCH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IF ANYTHING...INCREASED SUNSHINE
WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST OUR JULY NORMALS
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN WARMING BACK UP SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...THROUGH 01Z...STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER KDAN. OTHERWISE...VCTS WAS CARRIED FOR THE OTHER TAF
SITES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS TRIGGERED A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. AS
A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY MOVE BACK INTO OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KLWB AND KBCB LATE TONIGHT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE COVERAGE OF THE
FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO A BLANKET OF VFR CLOUDS.

STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES...BUT DID ADD
A VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 18Z THUR AND 00Z FRI...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 715 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS BACK UP AND IS OPERATING AT FULL STRENGTH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/PH
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 232147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
547 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH A DAY OR TWO
OF DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY HELPING TO TRIGGER MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEARING 70F AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ATTENDANT LOCAL
RUNOFF ISSUES. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
LATER THIS EVENING. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA BY THU
MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER
THE PIEDMONT LATER IN THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
STILL VERY HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DIURNAL RANGE LIMITED TOMORROW AS
WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8F LOWER THAN TODAYS WARM VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE DRY
AIR...THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL THAT MUCH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IF ANYTHING...INCREASED SUNSHINE
WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST OUR JULY NORMALS
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN WARMING BACK UP SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB WITHIN NEXT 1-2
HOURSRR. THE CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN...BUT MAY RETURN TO LIMITED SERVICE THIS
EVENING. TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE PROBLEMS...SO EVEN
IF THE RADAR COMES BACK UP IT MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE DOWN.

THERE IS A COMBINATION OF ISSUES THAT STEMMED FROM A POWER SURGE
OR POWER SUPPLY FAILURE. THIS HAD A RIPPLE EFFECT TO OTHER
SYSTEMS...ONE OF WHICH WAS A PRESSURE SWITCH ON AN OIL PUMP THAT
HAD TO BE REPLACED TODAY. ADDITIONAL WORK MAY NEED TO BE COMPLETED
THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 232147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
547 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH A DAY OR TWO
OF DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY HELPING TO TRIGGER MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEARING 70F AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ATTENDANT LOCAL
RUNOFF ISSUES. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
LATER THIS EVENING. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA BY THU
MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER
THE PIEDMONT LATER IN THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
STILL VERY HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DIURNAL RANGE LIMITED TOMORROW AS
WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8F LOWER THAN TODAYS WARM VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE DRY
AIR...THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL THAT MUCH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IF ANYTHING...INCREASED SUNSHINE
WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST OUR JULY NORMALS
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN WARMING BACK UP SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON
POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH
THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB WITHIN NEXT 1-2
HOURSRR. THE CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN...BUT MAY RETURN TO LIMITED SERVICE THIS
EVENING. TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE PROBLEMS...SO EVEN
IF THE RADAR COMES BACK UP IT MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE DOWN.

THERE IS A COMBINATION OF ISSUES THAT STEMMED FROM A POWER SURGE
OR POWER SUPPLY FAILURE. THIS HAD A RIPPLE EFFECT TO OTHER
SYSTEMS...ONE OF WHICH WAS A PRESSURE SWITCH ON AN OIL PUMP THAT
HAD TO BE REPLACED TODAY. ADDITIONAL WORK MAY NEED TO BE COMPLETED
THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 232058
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
458 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEARING 70F AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ATTENDANT LOCAL
RUNOFF ISSUES. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
LATER THIS EVENING. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA BY THU
MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER
THE PIEDMONT LATER IN THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
STILL VERY HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DIURNAL RANGE LIMITED TOMORROW AS
WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8F LOWER THAN TODAYS WARM VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB WITHIN NEXT 1-2
HOURSRR. THE CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 232058
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
458 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEARING 70F AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ATTENDANT LOCAL
RUNOFF ISSUES. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
LATER THIS EVENING. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA BY THU
MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER
THE PIEDMONT LATER IN THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
STILL VERY HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DIURNAL RANGE LIMITED TOMORROW AS
WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8F LOWER THAN TODAYS WARM VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB WITHIN NEXT 1-2
HOURSRR. THE CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231745
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
145 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON: LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS PROGRESSING TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER
THIS MORNING ARE A RESULT OF ORORGRAPHIC ASCENT VIA WEST/NW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND A SMALL AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT 700 MB...IN THE
PRESENCE OF 500-100 J/KG MLCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE NC/VA PIEDMONT.

EVENING: STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WESTERN MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFT/EVE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE WEST VIA DPVA ASSOC/W SMALL
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY. A
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL IN AND
SOUTHERN IL AT 15Z WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO KY/WV AND SOUTHERN
OH/PA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH A PRONOUNCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA/NC. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE RNK CWA TO BE
LATE THIS AFT/EVE IN VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER WHERE MODERATE
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (1000-1500 J/KG) IS EXPECTED AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT EAST ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC ASCENT. EXPECT A
MUCH LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WHERE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
TEMPER DESTABILIZATION.

SEVERE POTENTIAL: RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.0-6.5 C/KM...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-30
KT WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS /DEEP
CONVECTION/ THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE OH VALLEY EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. -VINCENT

TONIGHT...STILL WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION AROUND BUT DISSIPATING OUT
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE
WV/KY LINE BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE SE WV/FAR SW VA CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY
POPS HERE FADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. -WP

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB WITHIN NEXT 1-2
HOURSRR. THE CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231745
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
145 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON: LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS PROGRESSING TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER
THIS MORNING ARE A RESULT OF ORORGRAPHIC ASCENT VIA WEST/NW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND A SMALL AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT 700 MB...IN THE
PRESENCE OF 500-100 J/KG MLCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE NC/VA PIEDMONT.

EVENING: STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WESTERN MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFT/EVE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE WEST VIA DPVA ASSOC/W SMALL
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY. A
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL IN AND
SOUTHERN IL AT 15Z WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO KY/WV AND SOUTHERN
OH/PA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH A PRONOUNCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA/NC. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE RNK CWA TO BE
LATE THIS AFT/EVE IN VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER WHERE MODERATE
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (1000-1500 J/KG) IS EXPECTED AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT EAST ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC ASCENT. EXPECT A
MUCH LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WHERE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
TEMPER DESTABILIZATION.

SEVERE POTENTIAL: RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.0-6.5 C/KM...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-30
KT WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS /DEEP
CONVECTION/ THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE OH VALLEY EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. -VINCENT

TONIGHT...STILL WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION AROUND BUT DISSIPATING OUT
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE
WV/KY LINE BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE SE WV/FAR SW VA CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY
POPS HERE FADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. -WP

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB WITHIN NEXT 1-2
HOURSRR. THE CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231552
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1152 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON: LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS PROGRESSING TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER
THIS MORNING ARE A RESULT OF ORORGRAPHIC ASCENT VIA WEST/NW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND A SMALL AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT 700 MB...IN THE
PRESENCE OF 500-100 J/KG MLCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE NC/VA PIEDMONT.

EVENING: STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WESTERN MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFT/EVE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE WEST VIA DPVA ASSOC/W SMALL
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY. A
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL IN AND
SOUTHERN IL AT 15Z WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO KY/WV AND SOUTHERN
OH/PA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH A PRONOUNCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA/NC. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE RNK CWA TO BE
LATE THIS AFT/EVE IN VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER WHERE MODERATE
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (1000-1500 J/KG) IS EXPECTED AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT EAST ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC ASCENT. EXPECT A
MUCH LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WHERE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
TEMPER DESTABILIZATION.

SEVERE POTENTIAL: RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.0-6.5 C/KM...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-30
KT WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS /DEEP
CONVECTION/ THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE OH VALLEY EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. -VINCENT

TONIGHT...STILL WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION AROUND BUT DISSIPATING OUT
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE
WV/KY LINE BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE SE WV/FAR SW VA CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY
POPS HERE FADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. -WP

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG BECAME DENSE AT LWB/BCB WITH MVFR AT DAN/LYH. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE FAVORING CONVECTION OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS BY 18Z...SO HAVE VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB...PER HRRR. THE
CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE FRONTAL
PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR TSRA TODAY IF TERMINALS ARE THREATENED.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE DOES NOT DICTATE HAVING PREDOMINANT TSRA IN
THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231552
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1152 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON: LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS PROGRESSING TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER
THIS MORNING ARE A RESULT OF ORORGRAPHIC ASCENT VIA WEST/NW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND A SMALL AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT 700 MB...IN THE
PRESENCE OF 500-100 J/KG MLCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE NC/VA PIEDMONT.

EVENING: STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WESTERN MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFT/EVE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE WEST VIA DPVA ASSOC/W SMALL
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY. A
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL IN AND
SOUTHERN IL AT 15Z WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO KY/WV AND SOUTHERN
OH/PA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH A PRONOUNCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA/NC. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE RNK CWA TO BE
LATE THIS AFT/EVE IN VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER WHERE MODERATE
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (1000-1500 J/KG) IS EXPECTED AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT EAST ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC ASCENT. EXPECT A
MUCH LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WHERE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
TEMPER DESTABILIZATION.

SEVERE POTENTIAL: RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.0-6.5 C/KM...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-30
KT WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS /DEEP
CONVECTION/ THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE OH VALLEY EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. -VINCENT

TONIGHT...STILL WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION AROUND BUT DISSIPATING OUT
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE
WV/KY LINE BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE SE WV/FAR SW VA CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY
POPS HERE FADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. -WP

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG BECAME DENSE AT LWB/BCB WITH MVFR AT DAN/LYH. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE FAVORING CONVECTION OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS BY 18Z...SO HAVE VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB...PER HRRR. THE
CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE FRONTAL
PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR TSRA TODAY IF TERMINALS ARE THREATENED.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE DOES NOT DICTATE HAVING PREDOMINANT TSRA IN
THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1144 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1140 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON: LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS PROGRESSING TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER
THIS MORNING ARE A RESULT OF ORORGRAPHIC ASCENT VIA WEST/NW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND A SMALL AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT 700 MB...IN THE
PRESENCE OF 500-100 J/KG MLCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE NC/VA PIEDMONT.

EVENING: STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WESTERN MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFT/EVE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE WEST VIA DPVA ASSOC/W SMALL
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY. A
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL IN AND
SOUTHERN IL AT 15Z WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO KY/WV AND SOUTHERN
OH/PA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH A PRONOUNCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA/NC. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE RNK CWA TO BE
LATE THIS AFT/EVE IN VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER WHERE MODERATE
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (1000-1500 J/KG) IS EXPECTED AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT EAST ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC ASCENT. EXPECT A
MUCH LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WHERE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
TEMPER DESTABILIZATION.

SEVERE POTENTIAL: RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.0-6.5 C/KM...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-30
KT WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS /DEEP
CONVECTION/ THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE OH VALLEY EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. -VINCENT

TONIGHT...STILL WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION AROUND BUT DISSIPATING OUT
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE
WV/KY LINE BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE SE WV/FAR SW VA CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY
POPS HERE FADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. -WP

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG BECAME DENSE AT LWB/BCB WITH MVFR AT DAN/LYH. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE FAVORING CONVECTION OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS BY 18Z...SO HAVE VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB...PER HRRR. THE
CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE FRONTAL
PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR TSRA TODAY IF TERMINALS ARE THREATENED.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE DOES NOT DICTATE HAVING PREDOMINANT TSRA IN
THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1144 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1140 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON: LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS PROGRESSING TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER
THIS MORNING ARE A RESULT OF ORORGRAPHIC ASCENT VIA WEST/NW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND A SMALL AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT 700 MB...IN THE
PRESENCE OF 500-100 J/KG MLCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE NC/VA PIEDMONT.

EVENING: STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WESTERN MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFT/EVE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE WEST VIA DPVA ASSOC/W SMALL
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY. A
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL IN AND
SOUTHERN IL AT 15Z WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO KY/WV AND SOUTHERN
OH/PA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH A PRONOUNCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA/NC. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE RNK CWA TO BE
LATE THIS AFT/EVE IN VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER WHERE MODERATE
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (1000-1500 J/KG) IS EXPECTED AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT EAST ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC ASCENT. EXPECT A
MUCH LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WHERE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
TEMPER DESTABILIZATION.

SEVERE POTENTIAL: RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.0-6.5 C/KM...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-30
KT WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS /DEEP
CONVECTION/ THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE OH VALLEY EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. -VINCENT

TONIGHT...STILL WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION AROUND BUT DISSIPATING OUT
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE
WV/KY LINE BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE SE WV/FAR SW VA CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY
POPS HERE FADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. -WP

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG BECAME DENSE AT LWB/BCB WITH MVFR AT DAN/LYH. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE FAVORING CONVECTION OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS BY 18Z...SO HAVE VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB...PER HRRR. THE
CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE FRONTAL
PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR TSRA TODAY IF TERMINALS ARE THREATENED.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE DOES NOT DICTATE HAVING PREDOMINANT TSRA IN
THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231131
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
731 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
TODAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN IN THE LOW LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EARLY
THIS MORNING. DESPITE BEING IN A SUBSTANTIALLY DRY PATTERN IN THE
PAST MONTH OR SO...THE VEGETATION COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IS
STILL ENOUGH FOR FOG...WHICH IS STARTING TO COVER THE ERN
CWA...DAN/FVX AREA. FURTHER WEST...FOG IS PATCHY AS THERE ARE A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE MID LVLS.

THE OVERALL FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE WE HAD. MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT IN STARTING
CONVECTION OVER THE SRN BLUE RIDGE BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREADING
IT NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STORM MOTION CARRYING IT SE INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING CONVECTION FIRING IN
KY AND WRN WV THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING IT INTO SE WV...WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER REGIME FOR
STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH OVERALL DYNAMICS FAVOR BEST THREAT STAYING
WEST OF THE CWA. GIVEN SOME LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE PAST DAY...THE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED...THOUGH
THINK THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE A BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT COVERAGE.

WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LOW LVL THICKNESS BUT SOME CHANGE IN SFC
WINDS...THINK HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY OUT EAST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. WENT WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST. KEPT THE NC MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S BECAUSE OF CONVECTION FIRING EARLIER.

TONIGHT...STILL WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION AROUND BUT DISSIPATING OUT
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE
WV/KY LINE BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE SE WV/FAR SW VA CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY
POPS HERE FADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG BECAME DENSE AT LWB/BCB WITH MVFR AT DAN/LYH. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE FAVORING CONVECTION OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS BY 18Z...SO HAVE VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB...PER HRRR. THE
CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE FRONTAL
PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR TSRA TODAY IF TERMINALS ARE THREATENED.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE DOES NOT DICTATE HAVING PREDOMINANT TSRA IN
THE TAFS.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231131
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
731 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
TODAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN IN THE LOW LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EARLY
THIS MORNING. DESPITE BEING IN A SUBSTANTIALLY DRY PATTERN IN THE
PAST MONTH OR SO...THE VEGETATION COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IS
STILL ENOUGH FOR FOG...WHICH IS STARTING TO COVER THE ERN
CWA...DAN/FVX AREA. FURTHER WEST...FOG IS PATCHY AS THERE ARE A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE MID LVLS.

THE OVERALL FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE WE HAD. MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT IN STARTING
CONVECTION OVER THE SRN BLUE RIDGE BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREADING
IT NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STORM MOTION CARRYING IT SE INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING CONVECTION FIRING IN
KY AND WRN WV THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING IT INTO SE WV...WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER REGIME FOR
STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH OVERALL DYNAMICS FAVOR BEST THREAT STAYING
WEST OF THE CWA. GIVEN SOME LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE PAST DAY...THE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED...THOUGH
THINK THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE A BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT COVERAGE.

WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LOW LVL THICKNESS BUT SOME CHANGE IN SFC
WINDS...THINK HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY OUT EAST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. WENT WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST. KEPT THE NC MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S BECAUSE OF CONVECTION FIRING EARLIER.

TONIGHT...STILL WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION AROUND BUT DISSIPATING OUT
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE
WV/KY LINE BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE SE WV/FAR SW VA CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY
POPS HERE FADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOG BECAME DENSE AT LWB/BCB WITH MVFR AT DAN/LYH. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE FAVORING CONVECTION OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS BY 18Z...SO HAVE VCTS AT ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB...PER HRRR. THE
CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE FRONTAL
PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BLF/LWB CORRIDOR. AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR TSRA TODAY IF TERMINALS ARE THREATENED.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE DOES NOT DICTATE HAVING PREDOMINANT TSRA IN
THE TAFS.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB
VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230836
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
436 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
TODAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN IN THE LOW LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EARLY
THIS MORNING. DESPITE BEING IN A SUBSTANTIALLY DRY PATTERN IN THE
PAST MONTH OR SO...THE VEGETATION COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IS
STILL ENOUGH FOR FOG...WHICH IS STARTING TO COVER THE ERN
CWA...DAN/FVX AREA. FURTHER WEST...FOG IS PATCHY AS THERE ARE A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE MID LVLS.

THE OVERALL FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE WE HAD. MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT IN STARTING
CONVECTION OVER THE SRN BLUE RIDGE BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREADING
IT NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STORM MOTION CARRYING IT SE INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING CONVECTION FIRING IN
KY AND WRN WV THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING IT INTO SE WV...WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER REGIME FOR
STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH OVERALL DYNAMICS FAVOR BEST THREAT STAYING
WEST OF THE CWA. GIVEN SOME LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE PAST DAY...THE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED...THOUGH
THINK THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE A BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT COVERAGE.

WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LOW LVL THICKNESS BUT SOME CHANGE IN SFC
WINDS...THINK HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY OUT EAST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. WENT WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST. KEPT THE NC MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S BECAUSE OF CONVECTION FIRING EARLIER.

TONIGHT...STILL WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION AROUND BUT DISSIPATING OUT
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE
WV/KY LINE BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE SE WV/FAR SW VA CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY
POPS HERE FADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HAVE KEPT THE FOG FROM FORMING EARLY AT LWB PER AC IN PLACE
ATTM...BUT FEEL THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SOON...WITH FOG SETTING
IN BY 08Z TO IFR/TEMPO LIFR. OTHERWISE...WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL
FOG FORMATION IN THE USUAL PLACES LIKE BCB/LYH/DAN AT TIMES AROUND
09-12Z...BASED ON LOW LVL MOISTURE.

ANY FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 12-14Z...LEAVING VFR THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP INTO TCU ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VCTS BUT NOT
HAVING PREDOMINANT THUNDER IN. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HAVE BEST
THREAT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO LYH/DAN WILL NOT HAVE VCTS AT
THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY PENDING
TSRA DEVELOPMENT...MOVEMENT TOWARD TERMINALS.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW PER MODELS THIS EVENING BETWEEN THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z THU...SO KEPT IT VFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230836
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
436 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
TODAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN IN THE LOW LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EARLY
THIS MORNING. DESPITE BEING IN A SUBSTANTIALLY DRY PATTERN IN THE
PAST MONTH OR SO...THE VEGETATION COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IS
STILL ENOUGH FOR FOG...WHICH IS STARTING TO COVER THE ERN
CWA...DAN/FVX AREA. FURTHER WEST...FOG IS PATCHY AS THERE ARE A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE MID LVLS.

THE OVERALL FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE WE HAD. MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT IN STARTING
CONVECTION OVER THE SRN BLUE RIDGE BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREADING
IT NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STORM MOTION CARRYING IT SE INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING CONVECTION FIRING IN
KY AND WRN WV THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING IT INTO SE WV...WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER REGIME FOR
STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH OVERALL DYNAMICS FAVOR BEST THREAT STAYING
WEST OF THE CWA. GIVEN SOME LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE PAST DAY...THE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED...THOUGH
THINK THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE A BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT COVERAGE.

WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LOW LVL THICKNESS BUT SOME CHANGE IN SFC
WINDS...THINK HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY OUT EAST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. WENT WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST. KEPT THE NC MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S BECAUSE OF CONVECTION FIRING EARLIER.

TONIGHT...STILL WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION AROUND BUT DISSIPATING OUT
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE
WV/KY LINE BY THU MORNING...AND MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE SE WV/FAR SW VA CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY
POPS HERE FADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL ALREADY HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MORE MUTED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...AND
WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHERWISE...INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL ARE
PICKING UP ON ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY TRIGGERING A BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES. STILL NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW
DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE
MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A
FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HAVE KEPT THE FOG FROM FORMING EARLY AT LWB PER AC IN PLACE
ATTM...BUT FEEL THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SOON...WITH FOG SETTING
IN BY 08Z TO IFR/TEMPO LIFR. OTHERWISE...WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL
FOG FORMATION IN THE USUAL PLACES LIKE BCB/LYH/DAN AT TIMES AROUND
09-12Z...BASED ON LOW LVL MOISTURE.

ANY FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 12-14Z...LEAVING VFR THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP INTO TCU ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VCTS BUT NOT
HAVING PREDOMINANT THUNDER IN. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HAVE BEST
THREAT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO LYH/DAN WILL NOT HAVE VCTS AT
THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY PENDING
TSRA DEVELOPMENT...MOVEMENT TOWARD TERMINALS.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW PER MODELS THIS EVENING BETWEEN THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z THU...SO KEPT IT VFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE
RADAR TODAY..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230541
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW LEVEL WEDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN...AS SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT AN UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LIMITED AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE FORECAST.

PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE
LOW LEVELS...AS THE 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWING A FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE BELOW 700MB...AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE GSO SOUNDING
SHOWING MUCH HIGHER PWATS (1.85 INCHES VS. 1.2 AT RNK)...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH LESS COVER...BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING
DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND
BETTER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE
LINGERING MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE
UPSTREAM PRE- FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW
SLOPES LATE. THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY
TOWARD SUNSET AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF
PULSE STORMS ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO THE WEST IN MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
AFTER INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H
TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO
THE 80S WEST AND 90-95 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREFRONTAL MCS LIKELY TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ACTIVITY FADING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY REACH PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM
THINK ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EARLY THURSDAY MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION...LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING
FROM OUR PIEDMONT EASTWARD INTO THE TIDEWATER OF VA/NC.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN END THE PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY...MAYBE TWO...OF PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS NOT OVERLY DRY NOR COOL...SO WHEN THE SUN POPS OUT
FRIDAY...READINGS MAY FEEL JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG
DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HAVE KEPT THE FOG FROM FORMING EARLY AT LWB PER AC IN PLACE
ATTM...BUT FEEL THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SOON...WITH FOG SETTING
IN BY 08Z TO IFR/TEMPO LIFR. OTHERWISE...WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL
FOG FORMATION IN THE USUAL PLACES LIKE BCB/LYH/DAN AT TIMES AROUND
09-12Z...BASED ON LOW LVL MOISTURE.

ANY FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 12-14Z...LEAVING VFR THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP INTO TCU ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VCTS BUT NOT
HAVING PREDOMINANT THUNDER IN. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HAVE BEST
THREAT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO LYH/DAN WILL NOT HAVE VCTS AT
THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY PENDING
TSRA DEVELOPMENT...MOVEMENT TOWARD TERMINALS.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW PER MODELS THIS EVENING BETWEEN THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z THU...SO KEPT IT VFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS BACK UP...BUT IN A DEGRADED MODE. TECHNICIANS WILL
AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE RADAR WEDNESDAY...AND AS A RESULT...THE
RADAR WILL BE DOWN AGAIN TOMORROW FOR AN UNKNOWN PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230541
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW LEVEL WEDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN...AS SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT AN UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LIMITED AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE FORECAST.

PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE
LOW LEVELS...AS THE 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWING A FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE BELOW 700MB...AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE GSO SOUNDING
SHOWING MUCH HIGHER PWATS (1.85 INCHES VS. 1.2 AT RNK)...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH LESS COVER...BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING
DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND
BETTER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE
LINGERING MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE
UPSTREAM PRE- FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW
SLOPES LATE. THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY
TOWARD SUNSET AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF
PULSE STORMS ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO THE WEST IN MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
AFTER INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H
TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO
THE 80S WEST AND 90-95 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREFRONTAL MCS LIKELY TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ACTIVITY FADING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY REACH PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM
THINK ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EARLY THURSDAY MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION...LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING
FROM OUR PIEDMONT EASTWARD INTO THE TIDEWATER OF VA/NC.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN END THE PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY...MAYBE TWO...OF PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS NOT OVERLY DRY NOR COOL...SO WHEN THE SUN POPS OUT
FRIDAY...READINGS MAY FEEL JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG
DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HAVE KEPT THE FOG FROM FORMING EARLY AT LWB PER AC IN PLACE
ATTM...BUT FEEL THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SOON...WITH FOG SETTING
IN BY 08Z TO IFR/TEMPO LIFR. OTHERWISE...WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL
FOG FORMATION IN THE USUAL PLACES LIKE BCB/LYH/DAN AT TIMES AROUND
09-12Z...BASED ON LOW LVL MOISTURE.

ANY FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 12-14Z...LEAVING VFR THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP INTO TCU ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VCTS BUT NOT
HAVING PREDOMINANT THUNDER IN. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO HAVE BEST
THREAT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO LYH/DAN WILL NOT HAVE VCTS AT
THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY PENDING
TSRA DEVELOPMENT...MOVEMENT TOWARD TERMINALS.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW PER MODELS THIS EVENING BETWEEN THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z THU...SO KEPT IT VFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS BACK UP...BUT IN A DEGRADED MODE. TECHNICIANS WILL
AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE RADAR WEDNESDAY...AND AS A RESULT...THE
RADAR WILL BE DOWN AGAIN TOMORROW FOR AN UNKNOWN PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230145
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
945 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW LEVEL WEDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN...AS SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT AN UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LIMITED AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE FORECAST.

PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE
LOW LEVELS...AS THE 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWING A FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE BELOW 700MB...AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE GSO SOUNDING
SHOWING MUCH HIGHER PWATS (1.85 INCHES VS. 1.2 AT RNK)...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH LESS COVER...BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING
DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND
BETTER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE
LINGERING MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE
UPSTREAM PRE- FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW
SLOPES LATE. THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY
TOWARD SUNSET AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF
PULSE STORMS ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO THE WEST IN MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
AFTER INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H
TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO
THE 80S WEST AND 90-95 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREFRONTAL MCS LIKELY TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ACTIVITY FADING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY REACH PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM
THINK ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EARLY THURSDAY MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION...LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING
FROM OUR PIEDMONT EASTWARD INTO THE TIDEWATER OF VA/NC.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN END THE PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY...MAYBE TWO...OF PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS NOT OVERLY DRY NOR COOL...SO WHEN THE SUN POPS OUT
FRIDAY...READINGS MAY FEEL JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG
DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WERE NOTED ON RADAR...MAINLY NEAR KDAN AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WV. THIS SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND INCLUDED ONLY
AN HOUR OR TWO OF VCSH AT KDAN/KLWB/KBLF THIS EVENING.

AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWEST...LIGHT SFC
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IS
LESS CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED FOR THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER 05Z.
THOSE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS...KLWB AND KBCB...WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW DUE TO FOG. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KLYH AND
KDAN.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS BACK UP...BUT IN A DEGRADED MODE. TECHNICIANS WILL
AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE RADAR WEDNESDAY...AND AS A RESULT...THE
RADAR WILL BE DOWN AGAIN TOMORROW FOR AN UNKNOWN PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230145
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
945 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW LEVEL WEDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN...AS SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT AN UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LIMITED AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE FORECAST.

PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE
LOW LEVELS...AS THE 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWING A FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE BELOW 700MB...AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE GSO SOUNDING
SHOWING MUCH HIGHER PWATS (1.85 INCHES VS. 1.2 AT RNK)...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH LESS COVER...BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING
DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND
BETTER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE
LINGERING MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE
UPSTREAM PRE- FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW
SLOPES LATE. THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY
TOWARD SUNSET AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF
PULSE STORMS ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO THE WEST IN MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
AFTER INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H
TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO
THE 80S WEST AND 90-95 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREFRONTAL MCS LIKELY TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ACTIVITY FADING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY REACH PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM
THINK ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EARLY THURSDAY MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION...LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING
FROM OUR PIEDMONT EASTWARD INTO THE TIDEWATER OF VA/NC.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN END THE PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY...MAYBE TWO...OF PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS NOT OVERLY DRY NOR COOL...SO WHEN THE SUN POPS OUT
FRIDAY...READINGS MAY FEEL JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG
DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WERE NOTED ON RADAR...MAINLY NEAR KDAN AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WV. THIS SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND INCLUDED ONLY
AN HOUR OR TWO OF VCSH AT KDAN/KLWB/KBLF THIS EVENING.

AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWEST...LIGHT SFC
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IS
LESS CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED FOR THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER 05Z.
THOSE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS...KLWB AND KBCB...WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW DUE TO FOG. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KLYH AND
KDAN.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR IS BACK UP...BUT IN A DEGRADED MODE. TECHNICIANS WILL
AGAIN BE WORKING ON THE RADAR WEDNESDAY...AND AS A RESULT...THE
RADAR WILL BE DOWN AGAIN TOMORROW FOR AN UNKNOWN PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...PH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230129
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW LEVEL WEDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN...AS SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT AN UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LIMITED AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE FORECAST.

PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE
LOW LEVELS...AS THE 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWING A FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE BELOW 700MB...AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE GSO SOUNDING
SHOWING MUCH HIGHER PWATS (1.85 INCHES VS. 1.2 AT RNK)...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH LESS COVER...BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING
DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND
BETTER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE
LINGERING MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE
UPSTREAM PRE- FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW
SLOPES LATE. THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY
TOWARD SUNSET AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF
PULSE STORMS ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO THE WEST IN MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
AFTER INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H
TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO
THE 80S WEST AND 90-95 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREFRONTAL MCS LIKELY TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ACTIVITY FADING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY REACH PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM
THINK ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EARLY THURSDAY MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION...LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING
FROM OUR PIEDMONT EASTWARD INTO THE TIDEWATER OF VA/NC.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN END THE PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY...MAYBE TWO...OF PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS NOT OVERLY DRY NOR COOL...SO WHEN THE SUN POPS OUT
FRIDAY...READINGS MAY FEEL JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG
DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WERE NOTED ON RADAR...MAINLY NEAR KDAN AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WV. THIS SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND INCLUDED ONLY
AN HOUR OR TWO OF VCSH AT KDAN/KLWB/KBLF THIS EVENING.

AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWEST...LIGHT SFC
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IS
LESS CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED FOR THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER 05Z.
THOSE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS...KLWB AND KBCB...WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW DUE TO FOG. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KLYH AND
KDAN.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ARE STILL AT THE SITE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM...AND HOPE TO HAVE THE RADAR BACK ONLINE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230129
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW LEVEL WEDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN...AS SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT AN UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LIMITED AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE FORECAST.

PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE
LOW LEVELS...AS THE 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWING A FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE BELOW 700MB...AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE GSO SOUNDING
SHOWING MUCH HIGHER PWATS (1.85 INCHES VS. 1.2 AT RNK)...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH LESS COVER...BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
TONIGHT.

THE NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING
DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND
BETTER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE
LINGERING MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE
UPSTREAM PRE- FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW
SLOPES LATE. THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY
TOWARD SUNSET AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF
PULSE STORMS ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO THE WEST IN MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
AFTER INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H
TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO
THE 80S WEST AND 90-95 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREFRONTAL MCS LIKELY TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ACTIVITY FADING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY REACH PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM
THINK ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EARLY THURSDAY MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION...LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING
FROM OUR PIEDMONT EASTWARD INTO THE TIDEWATER OF VA/NC.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN END THE PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY...MAYBE TWO...OF PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS NOT OVERLY DRY NOR COOL...SO WHEN THE SUN POPS OUT
FRIDAY...READINGS MAY FEEL JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG
DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WERE NOTED ON RADAR...MAINLY NEAR KDAN AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WV. THIS SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND INCLUDED ONLY
AN HOUR OR TWO OF VCSH AT KDAN/KLWB/KBLF THIS EVENING.

AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWEST...LIGHT SFC
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IS
LESS CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED FOR THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER 05Z.
THOSE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS...KLWB AND KBCB...WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW DUE TO FOG. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KLYH AND
KDAN.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ARE STILL AT THE SITE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM...AND HOPE TO HAVE THE RADAR BACK ONLINE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 222318
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINING WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING TO KEEP OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AT A MINIMUM ATTM. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SHOWING UP
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH COULD STILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW TO PRODUCE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SE INTO THIS EVENING. ELSW APPEARS ANY LATE DAY COVERAGE
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AND PERHAPS ONLY OVER THE FAR NW ON THE
EDGE OF THE CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD WHERE MORE HEATING HAS OCCURRED.
THUS MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST POPS FAR SOUTH WITH MID TO LOW
CHANCES ELSW INTO EARLY EVENING.

UPPER LOW WELL TO THE SW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT
LEAVING THE REGION IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH LACK OF MUCH
SUPPORT FOR ADDED SHRA. IN ADDITION THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL BE
BREAKING DOWN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH -DZ POTENTIAL WITH ONLY SOME WEAK LEFTOVER
CONVERGENCE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT. APPEARS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY AFTER THIS EVENING BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL OVER THE SW
LEFT IN A TOKEN POP THERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN WARM/MUGGY WITH
MOST IN THE 65-72 RANGE GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND.

NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING DEEPENING
WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE LINGERING
MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE UPSTREAM PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW SLOPES LATE.
THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY TOWARD SUNSET
AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF PULSE STORMS
ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE WEST IN
MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE AFTER INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID
WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 80S WEST AND 90-95
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREFRONTAL MCS LIKELY TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ACTIVITY FADING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY REACH PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM
THINK ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EARLY THURSDAY MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION...LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING
FROM OUR PIEDMONT EASTWARD INTO THE TIDEWATER OF VA/NC.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN END THE PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY...MAYBE TWO...OF PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS NOT OVERLY DRY NOR COOL...SO WHEN THE SUN POPS OUT
FRIDAY...READINGS MAY FEEL JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG
DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WERE NOTED ON RADAR...MAINLY NEAR KDAN AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WV. THIS SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND INCLUDED ONLY
AN HOUR OR TWO OF VCSH AT KDAN/KLWB/KBLF THIS EVENING.

AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWEST...LIGHT SFC
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IS
LESS CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED FOR THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER 05Z.
THOSE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS...KLWB AND KBCB...WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW DUE TO FOG. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KLYH AND
KDAN.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ARE STILL AT THE SITE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM...AND HOPE TO HAVE THE RADAR BACK ONLINE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 222318
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINING WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING TO KEEP OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AT A MINIMUM ATTM. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SHOWING UP
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH COULD STILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW TO PRODUCE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SE INTO THIS EVENING. ELSW APPEARS ANY LATE DAY COVERAGE
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AND PERHAPS ONLY OVER THE FAR NW ON THE
EDGE OF THE CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD WHERE MORE HEATING HAS OCCURRED.
THUS MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST POPS FAR SOUTH WITH MID TO LOW
CHANCES ELSW INTO EARLY EVENING.

UPPER LOW WELL TO THE SW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT
LEAVING THE REGION IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH LACK OF MUCH
SUPPORT FOR ADDED SHRA. IN ADDITION THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL BE
BREAKING DOWN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH -DZ POTENTIAL WITH ONLY SOME WEAK LEFTOVER
CONVERGENCE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT. APPEARS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY AFTER THIS EVENING BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL OVER THE SW
LEFT IN A TOKEN POP THERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN WARM/MUGGY WITH
MOST IN THE 65-72 RANGE GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND.

NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING DEEPENING
WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE LINGERING
MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE UPSTREAM PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW SLOPES LATE.
THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY TOWARD SUNSET
AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF PULSE STORMS
ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE WEST IN
MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE AFTER INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID
WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 80S WEST AND 90-95
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREFRONTAL MCS LIKELY TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ACTIVITY FADING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY REACH PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM
THINK ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EARLY THURSDAY MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION...LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING
FROM OUR PIEDMONT EASTWARD INTO THE TIDEWATER OF VA/NC.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN END THE PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY...MAYBE TWO...OF PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS NOT OVERLY DRY NOR COOL...SO WHEN THE SUN POPS OUT
FRIDAY...READINGS MAY FEEL JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG
DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WERE NOTED ON RADAR...MAINLY NEAR KDAN AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WV. THIS SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND INCLUDED ONLY
AN HOUR OR TWO OF VCSH AT KDAN/KLWB/KBLF THIS EVENING.

AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWEST...LIGHT SFC
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IS
LESS CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED FOR THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER 05Z.
THOSE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS...KLWB AND KBCB...WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW DUE TO FOG. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KLYH AND
KDAN.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ARE STILL AT THE SITE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM...AND HOPE TO HAVE THE RADAR BACK ONLINE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PH/WP
EQUIPMENT...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 222009
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINING WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING TO KEEP OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AT A MINIMUM ATTM. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SHOWING UP
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH COULD STILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW TO PRODUCE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SE INTO THIS EVENING. ELSW APPEARS ANY LATE DAY COVERAGE
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AND PERHAPS ONLY OVER THE FAR NW ON THE
EDGE OF THE CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD WHERE MORE HEATING HAS OCCURRED.
THUS MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST POPS FAR SOUTH WITH MID TO LOW
CHANCES ELSW INTO EARLY EVENING.

UPPER LOW WELL TO THE SW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT
LEAVING THE REGION IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH LACK OF MUCH
SUPPORT FOR ADDED SHRA. IN ADDITION THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL BE
BREAKING DOWN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH -DZ POTENTIAL WITH ONLY SOME WEAK LEFTOVER
CONVERGENCE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT. APPEARS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY AFTER THIS EVENING BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL OVER THE SW
LEFT IN A TOKEN POP THERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN WARM/MUGGY WITH
MOST IN THE 65-72 RANGE GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND.

NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING DEEPENING
WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE LINGERING
MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE UPSTREAM PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW SLOPES LATE.
THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY TOWARD SUNSET
AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF PULSE STORMS
ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE WEST IN
MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE AFTER INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID
WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 80S WEST AND 90-95
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREFRONTAL MCS LIKELY TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ACTIVITY FADING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY REACH PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM
THINK ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EARLY THURSDAY MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION...LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING
FROM OUR PIEDMONT EASTWARD INTO THE TIDEWATER OF VA/NC.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN END THE PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY...MAYBE TWO...OF PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS NOT OVERLY DRY NOR COOL...SO WHEN THE SUN POPS OUT
FRIDAY...READINGS MAY FEEL JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG
DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HEATING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANSIVE CU
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES EXPECTED TO RISE
TO MOSTLY VFR LEVELS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER SPOTTY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSE TO KDAN MAY KEEP THEM MORE IN THE HIGH
END MVFR LEVEL RANGE AS WELL AS KLYH WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY.
SOME ADDED SHRA OR TSRA MAY POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID OR
LATE AFTERNOON SO LEAVING IN A VCSH/VCTS MENTION MAINLY WHERE
ALREADY ONGOING WHICH EXCLUDES KBLF/KLYH FOR NOW. OTRW LOOKING AT
OVERALL CLOUD BASES OF 3-5K FT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

MOST CONVECTION WEAKENS/SUBSIDES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PERHAPS LINGERING MOUNTAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOG
FORMATION LIKELY LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN LESS OF A
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND LIGHT WEST WINDS NOT EXPECTING THE OVERALL
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
THINK THE VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBCB AND KLWB HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR TO MVFR AT KLYH/KDAN
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO SCOUR OUT A BIT
SOONER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS EXPECTING A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY MID OR LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER HEATING WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO ADDED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ESPCLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SE WEST VA
SITES BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN INCREASING PERIODIC
MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOSTLY VFR OUT EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR REMAINS DOWN. HOWEVER TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING
ON THE PROBLEM AND WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO SERVICE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 222009
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINING WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING TO KEEP OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AT A MINIMUM ATTM. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SHOWING UP
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH COULD STILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW TO PRODUCE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SE INTO THIS EVENING. ELSW APPEARS ANY LATE DAY COVERAGE
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AND PERHAPS ONLY OVER THE FAR NW ON THE
EDGE OF THE CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD WHERE MORE HEATING HAS OCCURRED.
THUS MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST POPS FAR SOUTH WITH MID TO LOW
CHANCES ELSW INTO EARLY EVENING.

UPPER LOW WELL TO THE SW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT
LEAVING THE REGION IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH LACK OF MUCH
SUPPORT FOR ADDED SHRA. IN ADDITION THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL BE
BREAKING DOWN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH -DZ POTENTIAL WITH ONLY SOME WEAK LEFTOVER
CONVERGENCE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT. APPEARS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY AFTER THIS EVENING BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL OVER THE SW
LEFT IN A TOKEN POP THERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN WARM/MUGGY WITH
MOST IN THE 65-72 RANGE GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND.

NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING DEEPENING
WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE LINGERING
MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE UPSTREAM PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW SLOPES LATE.
THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY TOWARD SUNSET
AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF PULSE STORMS
ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE WEST IN
MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE AFTER INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID
WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 80S WEST AND 90-95
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREFRONTAL MCS LIKELY TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ACTIVITY FADING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY REACH PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM
THINK ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EARLY THURSDAY MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION...LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING
FROM OUR PIEDMONT EASTWARD INTO THE TIDEWATER OF VA/NC.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN END THE PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY...MAYBE TWO...OF PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS NOT OVERLY DRY NOR COOL...SO WHEN THE SUN POPS OUT
FRIDAY...READINGS MAY FEEL JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. A PARTICULARLY STRONG
DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A FEATURE THAT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BE ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM MCS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRENDED POPS
UP FOR SUNDAYS FROPA...THEN DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO AFTER SUNDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TENDENCY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES IS TO BRING SOME
DOWNTIME AS WITH RESPECT TO POPS BEFORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CAN RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HEATING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANSIVE CU
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES EXPECTED TO RISE
TO MOSTLY VFR LEVELS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER SPOTTY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSE TO KDAN MAY KEEP THEM MORE IN THE HIGH
END MVFR LEVEL RANGE AS WELL AS KLYH WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY.
SOME ADDED SHRA OR TSRA MAY POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID OR
LATE AFTERNOON SO LEAVING IN A VCSH/VCTS MENTION MAINLY WHERE
ALREADY ONGOING WHICH EXCLUDES KBLF/KLYH FOR NOW. OTRW LOOKING AT
OVERALL CLOUD BASES OF 3-5K FT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

MOST CONVECTION WEAKENS/SUBSIDES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PERHAPS LINGERING MOUNTAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOG
FORMATION LIKELY LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN LESS OF A
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND LIGHT WEST WINDS NOT EXPECTING THE OVERALL
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
THINK THE VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBCB AND KLWB HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR TO MVFR AT KLYH/KDAN
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO SCOUR OUT A BIT
SOONER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS EXPECTING A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY MID OR LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER HEATING WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO ADDED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ESPCLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SE WEST VA
SITES BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN INCREASING PERIODIC
MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOSTLY VFR OUT EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR REMAINS DOWN. HOWEVER TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING
ON THE PROBLEM AND WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO SERVICE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221856
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINING WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING TO KEEP OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AT A MINIMUM ATTM. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SHOWING UP
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH COULD STILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW TO PRODUCE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SE INTO THIS EVENING. ELSW APPEARS ANY LATE DAY COVERAGE
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AND PERHAPS ONLY OVER THE FAR NW ON THE
EDGE OF THE CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD WHERE MORE HEATING HAS OCCURRED.
THUS MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST POPS FAR SOUTH WITH MID TO LOW
CHANCES ELSW INTO EARLY EVENING.

UPPER LOW WELL TO THE SW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT
LEAVING THE REGION IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH LACK OF MUCH
SUPPORT FOR ADDED SHRA. IN ADDITION THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL BE
BREAKING DOWN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH -DZ POTENTIAL WITH ONLY SOME WEAK LEFTOVER
CONVERGENCE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT. APPEARS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY AFTER THIS EVENING BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL OVER THE SW
LEFT IN A TOKEN POP THERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN WARM/MUGGY WITH
MOST IN THE 65-72 RANGE GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND.

NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING DEEPENING
WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE LINGERING
MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE UPSTREAM PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW SLOPES LATE.
THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY TOWARD SUNSET
AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF PULSE STORMS
ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE WEST IN
MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE AFTER INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID
WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 80S WEST AND 90-95
EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
UNDER LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE CAPES WILL REACH INTO THE 1500-
2000 J/KG RANGE BY EARLY EVENING AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MID 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S EAST. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS PULSE HIT AND
MISS ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY MERGING INTO MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. WITH STRONG HEATING AND
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AS
THE MAIN THREAT...IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS
WILL WEAK DURING LATE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WE WILL STILL HAVE
SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON OUR DOORSTEP.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO LIMIT HEATING...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSE. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY WITH
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE WE MAY TOUCH 90 ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR FRIDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL CARRY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO THE
MID 80S EAST. MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT MONDAY...


FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE SEVERAL SUCH STRONG
DISTURBANCES NOTED IN THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE MOST
NOTABLE ON SUN...THAT COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
AREA. HAVE RETAINED EXISTING CHC POPS THAT WERE ADVERTISED WITH
EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGES...BUT CLEARLY THESE COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME LIKELY AT SOME POINT AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPSTREAM MCS
BECOMES MORE APPARENT. BY EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH REAMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HEATING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANSIVE CU
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES EXPECTED TO RISE
TO MOSTLY VFR LEVELS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER SPOTTY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSE TO KDAN MAY KEEP THEM MORE IN THE HIGH
END MVFR LEVEL RANGE AS WELL AS KLYH WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY.
SOME ADDED SHRA OR TSRA MAY POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID OR
LATE AFTERNOON SO LEAVING IN A VCSH/VCTS MENTION MAINLY WHERE
ALREADY ONGOING WHICH EXCLUDES KBLF/KLYH FOR NOW. OTRW LOOKING AT
OVERALL CLOUD BASES OF 3-5K FT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

MOST CONVECTION WEAKENS/SUBSIDES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PERHAPS LINGERING MOUNTAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOG
FORMATION LIKELY LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN LESS OF A
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND LIGHT WEST WINDS NOT EXPECTING THE OVERALL
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
THINK THE VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBCB AND KLWB HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR TO MVFR AT KLYH/KDAN
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO SCOUR OUT A BIT
SOONER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS EXPECTING A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY MID OR LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER HEATING WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO ADDED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ESPCLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SE WEST VA
SITES BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN INCREASING PERIODIC
MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOSTLY VFR OUT EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR REMAINS DOWN. HOWEVER TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING
ON THE PROBLEM AND WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO SERVICE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221856
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINING WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING TO KEEP OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AT A MINIMUM ATTM. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SHOWING UP
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH COULD STILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW TO PRODUCE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SE INTO THIS EVENING. ELSW APPEARS ANY LATE DAY COVERAGE
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AND PERHAPS ONLY OVER THE FAR NW ON THE
EDGE OF THE CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD WHERE MORE HEATING HAS OCCURRED.
THUS MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST POPS FAR SOUTH WITH MID TO LOW
CHANCES ELSW INTO EARLY EVENING.

UPPER LOW WELL TO THE SW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT
LEAVING THE REGION IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH LACK OF MUCH
SUPPORT FOR ADDED SHRA. IN ADDITION THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL BE
BREAKING DOWN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH -DZ POTENTIAL WITH ONLY SOME WEAK LEFTOVER
CONVERGENCE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT. APPEARS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY AFTER THIS EVENING BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL OVER THE SW
LEFT IN A TOKEN POP THERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN WARM/MUGGY WITH
MOST IN THE 65-72 RANGE GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND.

NEXT STRONG 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING DEEPENING
WESTERLY FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT LEE TROF WELL EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODELS SPARK MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW AND BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BUT STILL IFFY GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ONLY FAINT LIFT. ELSW APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED DESPITE LINGERING
MOISTURE GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE EAST SO KEEPING SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER THE UPSTREAM PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE NW SLOPES LATE.
THUS KEPT IN LOW LIKELYS EXTREME WEST...BUT MOSTLY TOWARD SUNSET
AT THIS POINT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IF PULSE STORMS
ORGANIZE MORE EARLY...AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE WEST IN
MORE OF A LINE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE AFTER INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO FADE. OTRW SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK QUICKER UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING INSOLATION AND 85H TEMPS AROUND +20C TO AID
WEAK COMPRESSION IN PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 80S WEST AND 90-95
EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
UNDER LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE CAPES WILL REACH INTO THE 1500-
2000 J/KG RANGE BY EARLY EVENING AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MID 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S EAST. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS PULSE HIT AND
MISS ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY MERGING INTO MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. WITH STRONG HEATING AND
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AS
THE MAIN THREAT...IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS
WILL WEAK DURING LATE EVENING...BUT EXPECT WE WILL STILL HAVE
SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON OUR DOORSTEP.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO LIMIT HEATING...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSE. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY WITH
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE WE MAY TOUCH 90 ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR FRIDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL CARRY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO THE
MID 80S EAST. MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT MONDAY...


FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA REMAINS
VULNERABLE TO NW FLOW DISTURBANCES TRACKING AROUND THE LARGE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE SEVERAL SUCH STRONG
DISTURBANCES NOTED IN THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE MOST
NOTABLE ON SUN...THAT COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
AREA. HAVE RETAINED EXISTING CHC POPS THAT WERE ADVERTISED WITH
EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGES...BUT CLEARLY THESE COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME LIKELY AT SOME POINT AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPSTREAM MCS
BECOMES MORE APPARENT. BY EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH REAMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT REMAINS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HEATING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANSIVE CU
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES EXPECTED TO RISE
TO MOSTLY VFR LEVELS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER SPOTTY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSE TO KDAN MAY KEEP THEM MORE IN THE HIGH
END MVFR LEVEL RANGE AS WELL AS KLYH WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY.
SOME ADDED SHRA OR TSRA MAY POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID OR
LATE AFTERNOON SO LEAVING IN A VCSH/VCTS MENTION MAINLY WHERE
ALREADY ONGOING WHICH EXCLUDES KBLF/KLYH FOR NOW. OTRW LOOKING AT
OVERALL CLOUD BASES OF 3-5K FT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

MOST CONVECTION WEAKENS/SUBSIDES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PERHAPS LINGERING MOUNTAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOG
FORMATION LIKELY LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN LESS OF A
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND LIGHT WEST WINDS NOT EXPECTING THE OVERALL
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
THINK THE VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBCB AND KLWB HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR TO MVFR AT KLYH/KDAN
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO SCOUR OUT A BIT
SOONER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS EXPECTING A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY MID OR LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER HEATING WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO ADDED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ESPCLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SE WEST VA
SITES BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN INCREASING PERIODIC
MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOSTLY VFR OUT EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA
AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF
ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX RADAR REMAINS DOWN. HOWEVER TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING
ON THE PROBLEM AND WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO SERVICE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...JH/WP




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