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000
FXUS61 KRNK 212335
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
735 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT
AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESP FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211928
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT
AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESP FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211455
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1055 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS SHOWING TYPICAL PATTERN OF CLEAR EAST TO
CLOUDY WEST AND SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING TO REFORM AS
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROF
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS OVERALL FLAVOR TO
CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE WITH AN EXPECTED DIURNAL
TREND. HAVE FRESHENED THE GRIDS WITH CURRENT DATA BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY.
A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL
PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. PLAYED POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211455
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1055 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS SHOWING TYPICAL PATTERN OF CLEAR EAST TO
CLOUDY WEST AND SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING TO REFORM AS
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROF
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS OVERALL FLAVOR TO
CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE WITH AN EXPECTED DIURNAL
TREND. HAVE FRESHENED THE GRIDS WITH CURRENT DATA BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY.
A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL
PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. PLAYED POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210858
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
458 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210858
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
458 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210546
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST OF OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS IT PUSHES EAST INTO OUR REGION. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING.


AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210546
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST OF OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS IT PUSHES EAST INTO OUR REGION. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING.


AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210130
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
930 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210130
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
930 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 202333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF
IT...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BANDS OF
SHOWERS TOWARD THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS ARRIVING CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ITS
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WASH OUT
AFTER IT CROSSES THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. THE
SECOND BAND WAS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM OHIO INTO INDIANA. IT TOO
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND ALSO WASH OUT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY MORE MILD COMPARED TO READINGS OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS. ANTICIPATE A MIX OF MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTIDAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...THE
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH DRIER AIR
RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS MAY
RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 202333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF
IT...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BANDS OF
SHOWERS TOWARD THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS ARRIVING CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ITS
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WASH OUT
AFTER IT CROSSES THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. THE
SECOND BAND WAS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM OHIO INTO INDIANA. IT TOO
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND ALSO WASH OUT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY MORE MILD COMPARED TO READINGS OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS. ANTICIPATE A MIX OF MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTIDAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...THE
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH DRIER AIR
RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS MAY
RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 201917
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF
IT...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BANDS OF
SHOWERS TOWARD THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS ARRIVING CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ITS
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WASH OUT
AFTER IT CROSSES THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. THE
SECOND BAND WAS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM OHIO INTO INDIANA. IT TOO
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND ALSO WASH OUT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY MORE MILD COMPARED TO READINGS OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS. ANTICIPATE A MIX OF MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTIDAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...THE
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH DRIER AIR
RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS MAY
RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF GOOD ENOUGH WITH VFR FOR ALL SITES.
HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN HEADING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF MOVING INTO THE ERN US. SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THE PCPN
WILL BE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ALSO DO
NOT SHOW VERY LOW CIGS WITH THIS PCPN. WILL TIME THE BAND OF
PCPN WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND KEEP CIGS VFR WITH A
TEMPO TO MVFR FOR VSBY WITH SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE WEST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS A BIT SO CIGS LOOK TO STAY UP THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. FLOW IS A BIT LAZY IN SWINGING AROUND TO A GOOD
NWLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND THIS LOOKS TO PREVENT KBLF FROM HAVING
A SOLID IFR CIG SET IN. SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND ENOUGH OF A
LIGHT WIND TO KEEP THINGS MIXED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT OBVIS
FROM SETTING UP. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST SHOT LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
A BETTER NW UPSLOPE FETCH WILL HELP GET SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
GOING WEST OF THE RIDGE.

WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN AGAIN VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 201740
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FIRST...PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IS ALLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TO REACH TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY. CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT
THEY WILL NOT ARRIVE BEFORE THE IMPACT OF THE SUNSHINE HELPS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY ROUGHLY THIS MUCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. SECONDLY...THE APPROACHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA IS ON TRACK TO ENTER THE REGION AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW
SOLUTIONS...AND CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST A BIT MORE
OF A BREAK BETWEEN THIS FIRST WAVE...AND THE SECOND ONE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
DEPICT THIS PATTERN WITHIN THE HOURLY NDFD POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...

ALL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAVE EXPIRED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A BAND OF PCPN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US. MESO MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP OF THE SITUATION AND BASED ON
THIS...WILL BUMP TIMING OF POPS UP A COUPLE OF HOURS TO REFLECT
EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT GRID
SET SO WILL FRESHEN WITH CURRENT DATA AND MAKE ONLY MINOR TREND
ADJUSTMENTS.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST AFTER
SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND
BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC
WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF GOOD ENOUGH WITH VFR FOR ALL SITES.
HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN HEADING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF MOVING INTO THE ERN US. SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THE PCPN
WILL BE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ALSO DO
NOT SHOW VERY LOW CIGS WITH THIS PCPN. WILL TIME THE BAND OF
PCPN WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND KEEP CIGS VFR WITH A
TEMPO TO MVFR FOR VSBY WITH SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE WEST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS A BIT SO CIGS LOOK TO STAY UP THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. FLOW IS A BIT LAZY IN SWINGING AROUND TO A GOOD
NWLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND THIS LOOKS TO PREVENT KBLF FROM HAVING
A SOLID IFR CIG SET IN. SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND ENOUGH OF A
LIGHT WIND TO KEEP THINGS MIXED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT OBVIS
FROM SETTING UP. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST SHOT LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
A BETTER NW UPSLOPE FETCH WILL HELP GET SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
GOING WEST OF THE RIDGE.

WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN AGAIN VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201449
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1049 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...

ALL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAVE EXPIRED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A BAND OF PCPN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US. MESO MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP OF THE SITUATION AND BASED ON
THIS...WILL BUMP TIMING OF POPS UP A COUPLE OF HOURS TO REFLECT
EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT GRID
SET SO WILL FRESHEN WITH CURRENT DATA AND MAKE ONLY MINOR TREND
ADJUSTMENTS.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST AFTER
SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND
BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC
WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWED
RETURN SW FLOW TO RETURN EARLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
LOW POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 100 BY
AFTERNOON...THEN TOWARD 050 IN WESTERN AREAS BY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUD SITUATION OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT
EASTERN WV...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFT 04Z...INCLUDING
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB WITH TIME. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL LOWER TOWARD 050 EXCEPT KDAN. SCT -SHRA MAY
DEVELOP EASTERN WV WITH THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW THEREAFTER. SFC MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING...SO
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AT THIS POINT. LIFR-
IFR VSBYS ADVERTISED FOR LWB IN THE MOS GENERATED TAFS APPEAR TO
BE CLIMO BASED AND DO NOT SUPPORT ONGOING SYNOPTIC SITUATION.
WINDS...SW 7-10KTS TODAY WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WSW-W OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 6-8KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IMMEDIATE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...MBS/KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201137
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWED
RETURN SW FLOW TO RETURN EARLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
LOW POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 100 BY
AFTERNOON...THEN TOWARD 050 IN WESTERN AREAS BY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUD SITUATION OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT
EASTERN WV...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFT 04Z...INCLUDING
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB WITH TIME. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL LOWER TOWARD 050 EXCEPT KDAN. SCT -SHRA MAY
DEVELOP EASTERN WV WITH THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW THEREAFTER. SFC MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING...SO
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AT THIS POINT. LIFR-
IFR VSBYS ADVERTISED FOR LWB IN THE MOS GENERATED TAFS APPEAR TO
BE CLIMO BASED AND DO NOT SUPPORT ONGOING SYNOPTIC SITUATION.
WINDS...SW 7-10KTS TODAY WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WSW-W OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 6-8KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IMMEDIATE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 201137
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWED
RETURN SW FLOW TO RETURN EARLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
LOW POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 100 BY
AFTERNOON...THEN TOWARD 050 IN WESTERN AREAS BY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUD SITUATION OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT
EASTERN WV...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFT 04Z...INCLUDING
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB WITH TIME. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL LOWER TOWARD 050 EXCEPT KDAN. SCT -SHRA MAY
DEVELOP EASTERN WV WITH THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW THEREAFTER. SFC MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING...SO
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AT THIS POINT. LIFR-
IFR VSBYS ADVERTISED FOR LWB IN THE MOS GENERATED TAFS APPEAR TO
BE CLIMO BASED AND DO NOT SUPPORT ONGOING SYNOPTIC SITUATION.
WINDS...SW 7-10KTS TODAY WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WSW-W OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 6-8KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IMMEDIATE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY FOG FROM FORMATION IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING
OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST. STILL VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SNEAKING INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF AT THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WIND FORECASTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 200851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY FOG FROM FORMATION IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING
OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST. STILL VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SNEAKING INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF AT THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WIND FORECASTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200536
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT MONDAY...

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS MORNING. SLOWED THE ADVANCE EAST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH
DRY AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING.

AS OF 1035 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GIVEN QUICK TEMP FALLS ACROSS THE WEST INCLUDING THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED ALL OF GREENBRIER COUNTY
WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING AS WELL AS TAZEWELL COUNTY. ALSO
INCLUDING MERCER CTY ALONG WITH GRAYSON...ASHE AND WATAUGA INTO
THE FROST ADVISORY SINCE MOST CIRRUS TO THE WEST APPEAR TO BE
FADING WITH WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT. OTRW OTHER THAN LOWERING
TEMPS FEW OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EXTENT OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE PER 00Z RAOB AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED A QUICK
DROP IN EVENING TEMPS AND EXPECT READINGS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINT
ESPCLY VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT. HOWEVER
APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OF CONCERN IN CAUSING
READINGS TO STEADY OUT SOME MOUNTAINS WHILE THINKING LESS OUT EAST
WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL END UP OVERNIGHT. MIXING ALSO TO
INCREASE ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY PICKS UP ALOFT
MAKING THINGS TRICKY FOR COVERAGE OF FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS
ACROSS MANY OF THE COUNTIES. ACTUALLY THINK PARTS OF THE EAST HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE FROST DESPITE DRYNESS SO ADDED A FEW
MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHILE KEEPING ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD
OUT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY COVERAGE THERE. ALSO ADDED MORE FROST
INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AS WELL AS THE HIGHER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY ACTUALLY SEE READINGS ON THE RIDGES
RISE LATE. THUS BUMPED UP LOWS AT ELEVATION WHILE LOWERING VALLEYS
WHERE SOME BRIEF 20S POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY FOG FROM FORMATION IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING
OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST. STILL VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SNEAKING INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF AT THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WIND FORECASTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/KK/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 200536
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT MONDAY...

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS MORNING. SLOWED THE ADVANCE EAST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH
DRY AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING.

AS OF 1035 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GIVEN QUICK TEMP FALLS ACROSS THE WEST INCLUDING THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED ALL OF GREENBRIER COUNTY
WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING AS WELL AS TAZEWELL COUNTY. ALSO
INCLUDING MERCER CTY ALONG WITH GRAYSON...ASHE AND WATAUGA INTO
THE FROST ADVISORY SINCE MOST CIRRUS TO THE WEST APPEAR TO BE
FADING WITH WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT. OTRW OTHER THAN LOWERING
TEMPS FEW OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EXTENT OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE PER 00Z RAOB AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED A QUICK
DROP IN EVENING TEMPS AND EXPECT READINGS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINT
ESPCLY VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT. HOWEVER
APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OF CONCERN IN CAUSING
READINGS TO STEADY OUT SOME MOUNTAINS WHILE THINKING LESS OUT EAST
WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL END UP OVERNIGHT. MIXING ALSO TO
INCREASE ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY PICKS UP ALOFT
MAKING THINGS TRICKY FOR COVERAGE OF FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS
ACROSS MANY OF THE COUNTIES. ACTUALLY THINK PARTS OF THE EAST HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE FROST DESPITE DRYNESS SO ADDED A FEW
MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHILE KEEPING ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD
OUT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY COVERAGE THERE. ALSO ADDED MORE FROST
INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AS WELL AS THE HIGHER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY ACTUALLY SEE READINGS ON THE RIDGES
RISE LATE. THUS BUMPED UP LOWS AT ELEVATION WHILE LOWERING VALLEYS
WHERE SOME BRIEF 20S POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY FOG FROM FORMATION IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING
OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST. STILL VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SNEAKING INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF AT THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WIND FORECASTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/KK/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200242 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1042 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GIVEN QUICK TEMP FALLS ACROSS THE WEST INCLUDING THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED ALL OF GREENBRIER COUNTY
WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING AS WELL AS TAZEWELL COUNTY. ALSO
INCLUDING MERCER CTY ALONG WITH GRAYSON...ASHE AND WATAUGA INTO
THE FROST ADVISORY SINCE MOST CIRRUS TO THE WEST APPEAR TO BE
FADING WITH WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT. OTRW OTHER THAN LOWERING
TEMPS FEW OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EXTENT OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE PER 00Z RAOB AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED A QUICK
DROP IN EVENING TEMPS AND EXPECT READINGS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINT
ESPCLY VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT. HOWEVER
APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OF CONCERN IN CAUSING
READINGS TO STEADY OUT SOME MOUNTAINS WHILE THINKING LESS OUT EAST
WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL END UP OVERNIGHT. MIXING ALSO TO
INCREASE ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY PICKS UP ALOFT
MAKING THINGS TRICKY FOR COVERAGE OF FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS
ACROSS MANY OF THE COUNTIES. ACTUALLY THINK PARTS OF THE EAST HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE FROST DESPITE DRYNESS SO ADDED A FEW
MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHILE KEEPING ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD
OUT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY COVERAGE THERE. ALSO ADDED MORE FROST
INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AS WELL AS THE HIGHER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY ACTUALLY SEE READINGS ON THE RIDGES
RISE LATE. THUS BUMPED UP LOWS AT ELEVATION WHILE LOWERING VALLEYS
WHERE SOME BRIEF 20S POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY BECOMING CALM OR
NEARLY SO WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OFF AND ON TONIGHT...AND
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN
INCREASE IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR
WEST. STILL VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH AT BLF FOR THIS
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY...BUT ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF AT THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN SO...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ009>015-018>020-
     023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200242 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1042 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GIVEN QUICK TEMP FALLS ACROSS THE WEST INCLUDING THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED ALL OF GREENBRIER COUNTY
WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING AS WELL AS TAZEWELL COUNTY. ALSO
INCLUDING MERCER CTY ALONG WITH GRAYSON...ASHE AND WATAUGA INTO
THE FROST ADVISORY SINCE MOST CIRRUS TO THE WEST APPEAR TO BE
FADING WITH WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT. OTRW OTHER THAN LOWERING
TEMPS FEW OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EXTENT OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE PER 00Z RAOB AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED A QUICK
DROP IN EVENING TEMPS AND EXPECT READINGS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINT
ESPCLY VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT. HOWEVER
APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OF CONCERN IN CAUSING
READINGS TO STEADY OUT SOME MOUNTAINS WHILE THINKING LESS OUT EAST
WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL END UP OVERNIGHT. MIXING ALSO TO
INCREASE ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY PICKS UP ALOFT
MAKING THINGS TRICKY FOR COVERAGE OF FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS
ACROSS MANY OF THE COUNTIES. ACTUALLY THINK PARTS OF THE EAST HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE FROST DESPITE DRYNESS SO ADDED A FEW
MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHILE KEEPING ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD
OUT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY COVERAGE THERE. ALSO ADDED MORE FROST
INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AS WELL AS THE HIGHER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY ACTUALLY SEE READINGS ON THE RIDGES
RISE LATE. THUS BUMPED UP LOWS AT ELEVATION WHILE LOWERING VALLEYS
WHERE SOME BRIEF 20S POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY BECOMING CALM OR
NEARLY SO WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OFF AND ON TONIGHT...AND
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN
INCREASE IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR
WEST. STILL VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH AT BLF FOR THIS
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY...BUT ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF AT THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN SO...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ009>015-018>020-
     023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 200028
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
828 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EXTENT OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE PER 00Z RAOB AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED A QUICK
DROP IN EVENING TEMPS AND EXPECT READINGS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINT
ESPCLY VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT. HOWEVER
APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OF CONCERN IN CAUSING
READINGS TO STEADY OUT SOME MOUNTAINS WHILE THINKING LESS OUT EAST
WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL END UP OVERNIGHT. MIXING ALSO TO
INCREASE ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY PICKS UP ALOFT
MAKING THINGS TRICKY FOR COVERAGE OF FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS
ACROSS MANY OF THE COUNTIES. ACTUALLY THINK PARTS OF THE EAST HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE FROST DESPITE DRYNESS SO ADDED A FEW
MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHILE KEEPING ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD
OUT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY COVERAGE THERE. ALSO ADDED MORE FROST
INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AS WELL AS THE HIGHER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY ACTUALLY SEE READINGS ON THE RIDGES
RISE LATE. THUS BUMPED UP LOWS AT ELEVATION WHILE LOWERING VALLEYS
WHERE SOME BRIEF 20S POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY BECOMING CALM OR
NEARLY SO WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OFF AND ON TONIGHT...AND
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN
INCREASE IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR
WEST. STILL VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH AT BLF FOR THIS
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY...BUT ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF AT THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN SO...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009>014-018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200028
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
828 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EXTENT OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE PER 00Z RAOB AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED A QUICK
DROP IN EVENING TEMPS AND EXPECT READINGS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINT
ESPCLY VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT. HOWEVER
APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OF CONCERN IN CAUSING
READINGS TO STEADY OUT SOME MOUNTAINS WHILE THINKING LESS OUT EAST
WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL END UP OVERNIGHT. MIXING ALSO TO
INCREASE ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY PICKS UP ALOFT
MAKING THINGS TRICKY FOR COVERAGE OF FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS
ACROSS MANY OF THE COUNTIES. ACTUALLY THINK PARTS OF THE EAST HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE FROST DESPITE DRYNESS SO ADDED A FEW
MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHILE KEEPING ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD
OUT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY COVERAGE THERE. ALSO ADDED MORE FROST
INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AS WELL AS THE HIGHER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY ACTUALLY SEE READINGS ON THE RIDGES
RISE LATE. THUS BUMPED UP LOWS AT ELEVATION WHILE LOWERING VALLEYS
WHERE SOME BRIEF 20S POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY BECOMING CALM OR
NEARLY SO WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OFF AND ON TONIGHT...AND
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN
INCREASE IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR
WEST. STILL VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH AT BLF FOR THIS
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY...BUT ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF AT THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN SO...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009>014-018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 192332
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
732 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO HEAD EASTWARD TO
OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING...AND BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. BY THE SAME TIME MONDAY MORNING...A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SO FAR WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR TEMPERATURES TAKING A HUGE TUMBLE
ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION. BY THE COLDEST AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST...AND BY LATE TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL START INCREASING A THE RIDGE TOPS TO KEEP THEM FROM
COOLING OFF TOO MUCH.

HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR PLENTY OF
LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
MID 30S ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STAY THE MILDEST WITH LOWS AROUND
40. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN PART
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR MOST
OF THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. BASED UPON THE EXPECTED DISTRIBUTION OF FROST
IN BOTH TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND
ALSO TO HAVE A WELL DISTRIBUTED NATIONAL HAZARDS MAP...THESE TWO
COUNTIES ARE BEING ADDED TO THE FROST ADVISORY...MATCHING THE
BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY.

EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINING VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT IT WILL BE PATCHY IN DISTRIBUTION...NO ADVISORIES WILL BE
HOISTED FOR THIS REGION. THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND THE FACT THAT PATCHY FROST IS
IN THE NDFD GRIDS MEANS THE POTENTIAL WILL BE RELAYED IN BOTH ZONE
AND POINT-AND-CLICK FORECASTS.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY BECOMING CALM OR
NEARLY SO WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OFF AND ON TONIGHT...AND
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN
INCREASE IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR
WEST. STILL VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH AT BLF FOR THIS
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY...BUT ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF AT THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN SO...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 192332
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
732 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO HEAD EASTWARD TO
OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING...AND BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. BY THE SAME TIME MONDAY MORNING...A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SO FAR WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR TEMPERATURES TAKING A HUGE TUMBLE
ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION. BY THE COLDEST AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST...AND BY LATE TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL START INCREASING A THE RIDGE TOPS TO KEEP THEM FROM
COOLING OFF TOO MUCH.

HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR PLENTY OF
LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
MID 30S ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STAY THE MILDEST WITH LOWS AROUND
40. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN PART
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR MOST
OF THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. BASED UPON THE EXPECTED DISTRIBUTION OF FROST
IN BOTH TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND
ALSO TO HAVE A WELL DISTRIBUTED NATIONAL HAZARDS MAP...THESE TWO
COUNTIES ARE BEING ADDED TO THE FROST ADVISORY...MATCHING THE
BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY.

EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINING VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT IT WILL BE PATCHY IN DISTRIBUTION...NO ADVISORIES WILL BE
HOISTED FOR THIS REGION. THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND THE FACT THAT PATCHY FROST IS
IN THE NDFD GRIDS MEANS THE POTENTIAL WILL BE RELAYED IN BOTH ZONE
AND POINT-AND-CLICK FORECASTS.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY BECOMING CALM OR
NEARLY SO WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OFF AND ON TONIGHT...AND
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN
INCREASE IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR
WEST. STILL VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH AT BLF FOR THIS
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY...BUT ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF AT THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN SO...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 192332
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
732 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO HEAD EASTWARD TO
OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING...AND BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. BY THE SAME TIME MONDAY MORNING...A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SO FAR WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR TEMPERATURES TAKING A HUGE TUMBLE
ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION. BY THE COLDEST AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST...AND BY LATE TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL START INCREASING A THE RIDGE TOPS TO KEEP THEM FROM
COOLING OFF TOO MUCH.

HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR PLENTY OF
LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
MID 30S ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STAY THE MILDEST WITH LOWS AROUND
40. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN PART
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR MOST
OF THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. BASED UPON THE EXPECTED DISTRIBUTION OF FROST
IN BOTH TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND
ALSO TO HAVE A WELL DISTRIBUTED NATIONAL HAZARDS MAP...THESE TWO
COUNTIES ARE BEING ADDED TO THE FROST ADVISORY...MATCHING THE
BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY.

EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINING VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT IT WILL BE PATCHY IN DISTRIBUTION...NO ADVISORIES WILL BE
HOISTED FOR THIS REGION. THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND THE FACT THAT PATCHY FROST IS
IN THE NDFD GRIDS MEANS THE POTENTIAL WILL BE RELAYED IN BOTH ZONE
AND POINT-AND-CLICK FORECASTS.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY BECOMING CALM OR
NEARLY SO WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OFF AND ON TONIGHT...AND
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN
INCREASE IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR
WEST. STILL VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH AT BLF FOR THIS
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY...BUT ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF AT THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN SO...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 192332
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
732 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO HEAD EASTWARD TO
OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING...AND BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. BY THE SAME TIME MONDAY MORNING...A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SO FAR WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR TEMPERATURES TAKING A HUGE TUMBLE
ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION. BY THE COLDEST AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST...AND BY LATE TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL START INCREASING A THE RIDGE TOPS TO KEEP THEM FROM
COOLING OFF TOO MUCH.

HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR PLENTY OF
LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
MID 30S ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STAY THE MILDEST WITH LOWS AROUND
40. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN PART
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR MOST
OF THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. BASED UPON THE EXPECTED DISTRIBUTION OF FROST
IN BOTH TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND
ALSO TO HAVE A WELL DISTRIBUTED NATIONAL HAZARDS MAP...THESE TWO
COUNTIES ARE BEING ADDED TO THE FROST ADVISORY...MATCHING THE
BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY.

EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINING VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT IT WILL BE PATCHY IN DISTRIBUTION...NO ADVISORIES WILL BE
HOISTED FOR THIS REGION. THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND THE FACT THAT PATCHY FROST IS
IN THE NDFD GRIDS MEANS THE POTENTIAL WILL BE RELAYED IN BOTH ZONE
AND POINT-AND-CLICK FORECASTS.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY BECOMING CALM OR
NEARLY SO WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OFF AND ON TONIGHT...AND
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN
INCREASE IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR
WEST. STILL VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH AT BLF FOR THIS
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY...BUT ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF AT THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN SO...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 191911
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO HEAD EASTWARD TO
OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING...AND BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. BY THE SAME TIME MONDAY MORNING...A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID-
MISSISSSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR TEMPERATURES TAKING A HUGE TUMBLE ACROSS ALL
OF THE REGION. BY THE COLDEST AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH TO OUR EAST...AND BY LATE TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START
INCREASING A THE RIDGE TOPS TO KEEP THEM FROM COOLING OFF TOO MUCH.

HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR PLENTY OF
LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
MID 30S ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STAY THE MILDEST WITH LOWS AROUND
40. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN PART
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. BASED UPON THE EXPECTED DISTRIBUTION OF FROST IN
BOTH TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND ALSO TO
HAVE A WELL DISTRIBUTED NATIONAL HAZARDS MAP...THESE TWO COUNTIES
ARE BEING ADDED TO THE FROST ADVISORY...MATCHING THE BEGINNING AND
ENDING TIMES OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY.

EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINING VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT IT WILL BE PATCHY IN DISTRIBUTION...NO ADVISORIES WILL BE
HOISTED FOR THIS REGION. THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND THE FACT THAT PATCHY FROST IS
IN THE NDFD GRIDS MEANS THE POTENTIAL WILL BE RELAYED IN BOTH ZONE
AND POINT-AND-CLICK FORECASTS.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...

ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
ROUGHLY KBLF-KBKW. THESE CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING...AND BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON CLEAR SKIES OR ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WITH LOW END VFR BASES
ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTS OF 15-20
KTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM OR NEAR CALM. AROUND
850 MB...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY THROUGH MID-DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 191727
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
127 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY RESULTING
IN DRIER WEATHER UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST IS CONTINUING ITS RAPID DISSIPATION. WE
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON SO THAT BY SUNSET VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN AN INCREASE IN VALUE BY A DEGREE OR TWO CENTRAL AND
EAST...WITH VALUES ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN THE
WEST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE SAME
GENERAL TREND IS STILL EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND ANY LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS...AND BACKS MORE WESTERLY. ALSO
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ONLY HELP FACILITATE
THIS TREND. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND CLOUD
COVER TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SHAPED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MARK. FROST
ADVISORIES HAD BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS FOR MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR MOST
AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE
EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN
THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE
TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FROST EASTWARD...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE LOCATIONS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER.  FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE
RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...

ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
ROUGHLY KBLF-KBKW. THESE CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING...AND BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON CLEAR SKIES OR ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WITH LOW END VFR BASES
ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTS OF 15-20
KTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM OR NEAR CALM. AROUND
850 MB...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY THROUGH MID-DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 191727
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
127 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY RESULTING
IN DRIER WEATHER UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST IS CONTINUING ITS RAPID DISSIPATION. WE
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON SO THAT BY SUNSET VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN AN INCREASE IN VALUE BY A DEGREE OR TWO CENTRAL AND
EAST...WITH VALUES ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN THE
WEST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE SAME
GENERAL TREND IS STILL EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND ANY LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS...AND BACKS MORE WESTERLY. ALSO
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ONLY HELP FACILITATE
THIS TREND. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND CLOUD
COVER TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SHAPED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MARK. FROST
ADVISORIES HAD BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS FOR MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR MOST
AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE
EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN
THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE
TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FROST EASTWARD...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE LOCATIONS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER.  FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE
RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...

ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
ROUGHLY KBLF-KBKW. THESE CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING...AND BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON CLEAR SKIES OR ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WITH LOW END VFR BASES
ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTS OF 15-20
KTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM OR NEAR CALM. AROUND
850 MB...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY THROUGH MID-DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 191641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY RESULTING
IN DRIER WEATHER UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST IS CONTINUING ITS RAPID DISSIPATION. WE
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON SO THAT BY SUNSET VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN AN INCREASE IN VALUE BY A DEGREE OR TWO CENTRAL AND
EAST...WITH VALUES ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN THE
WEST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE SAME
GENERAL TREND IS STILL EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND ANY LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS...AND BACKS MORE WESTERLY. ALSO
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ONLY HELP FACILITATE
THIS TREND. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND CLOUD
COVER TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SHAPED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MARK. FROST
ADVISORIES HAD BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS FOR MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR MOST
AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE
EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN
THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE
TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FROST EASTWARD...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE LOCATIONS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER.  FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE
RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT...MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS THERE ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR. STRONG
SHORT WAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST...BUT UPSLOPE NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ALLEGHANYS. CIGS ACROSS EASTERN WV...INCLUDING LWB/BLF
GENERALLY IN THE 010-025 RANGE. BLF HAS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO
009...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MAY SEE A FEW SC THROUGH
15Z...THEN SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCT OUT IN THE 15Z-17Z TIME
FRAME...WITH BLF/LWB LIKELY BEING THE LONGEST TO HOLD ONTO MVFR
CIGS. WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT GENERALLY WNW 8-12KTS
GUSTING TO 17-22KTS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING
QUICKLY TO NEAR CALM BY 23Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK TO THE SW
EARLY MON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL MAINLY IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THU.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 191641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY RESULTING
IN DRIER WEATHER UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST IS CONTINUING ITS RAPID DISSIPATION. WE
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON SO THAT BY SUNSET VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN AN INCREASE IN VALUE BY A DEGREE OR TWO CENTRAL AND
EAST...WITH VALUES ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN THE
WEST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE SAME
GENERAL TREND IS STILL EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND ANY LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS...AND BACKS MORE WESTERLY. ALSO
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ONLY HELP FACILITATE
THIS TREND. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND CLOUD
COVER TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SHAPED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MARK. FROST
ADVISORIES HAD BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS FOR MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR MOST
AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE
EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN
THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE
TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FROST EASTWARD...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE LOCATIONS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER.  FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE
RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT...MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS THERE ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR. STRONG
SHORT WAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST...BUT UPSLOPE NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ALLEGHANYS. CIGS ACROSS EASTERN WV...INCLUDING LWB/BLF
GENERALLY IN THE 010-025 RANGE. BLF HAS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO
009...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MAY SEE A FEW SC THROUGH
15Z...THEN SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCT OUT IN THE 15Z-17Z TIME
FRAME...WITH BLF/LWB LIKELY BEING THE LONGEST TO HOLD ONTO MVFR
CIGS. WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT GENERALLY WNW 8-12KTS
GUSTING TO 17-22KTS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING
QUICKLY TO NEAR CALM BY 23Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK TO THE SW
EARLY MON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL MAINLY IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THU.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 191400
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY RESULTING
IN DRIER WEATHER UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE SAME
GENERAL TREND IS STILL EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND ANY LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS...AND BACKS MORE WESTERLY. ALSO
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ONLY HELP FACILITATE
THIS TREND. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND CLOUD
COVER TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SHAPED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MARK. FROST
ADVISORIES HAD BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS FOR MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR MOST
AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE
EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN
THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE
TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FROST EASTWARD...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE LOCATIONS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER.  FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE
RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT...MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS THERE ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR. STRONG
SHORT WAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST...BUT UPSLOPE NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ALLEGHANYS. CIGS ACROSS EASTERN WV...INCLUDING LWB/BLF
GENERALLY IN THE 010-025 RANGE. BLF HAS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO
009...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MAY SEE A FEW SC THROUGH
15Z...THEN SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCT OUT IN THE 15Z-17Z TIME
FRAME...WITH BLF/LWB LIKELY BEING THE LONGEST TO HOLD ONTO MVFR
CIGS. WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT GENERALLY WNW 8-12KTS
GUSTING TO 17-22KTS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING
QUICKLY TO NEAR CALM BY 23Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK TO THE SW
EARLY MON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL MAINLY IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THU.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 191400
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY RESULTING
IN DRIER WEATHER UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE SAME
GENERAL TREND IS STILL EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND ANY LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS...AND BACKS MORE WESTERLY. ALSO
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ONLY HELP FACILITATE
THIS TREND. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND CLOUD
COVER TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SHAPED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MARK. FROST
ADVISORIES HAD BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS FOR MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR MOST
AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE
EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN
THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE
TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FROST EASTWARD...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE LOCATIONS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER.  FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE
RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT...MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS THERE ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR. STRONG
SHORT WAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST...BUT UPSLOPE NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ALLEGHANYS. CIGS ACROSS EASTERN WV...INCLUDING LWB/BLF
GENERALLY IN THE 010-025 RANGE. BLF HAS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO
009...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MAY SEE A FEW SC THROUGH
15Z...THEN SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCT OUT IN THE 15Z-17Z TIME
FRAME...WITH BLF/LWB LIKELY BEING THE LONGEST TO HOLD ONTO MVFR
CIGS. WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT GENERALLY WNW 8-12KTS
GUSTING TO 17-22KTS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING
QUICKLY TO NEAR CALM BY 23Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK TO THE SW
EARLY MON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL MAINLY IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THU.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 191136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY RESULTING
IN DRIER WEATHER UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SHAPED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MARK. FROST
ADVISORIES HAD BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS FOR MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR MOST
AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE
EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN
THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE
TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FROST EASTWARD...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE LOCATIONS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER.  FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE
RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT...MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS THERE ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR. STRONG
SHORT WAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST...BUT UPSLOPE NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ALLEGHANYS. CIGS ACROSS EASTERN WV...INCLUDING LWB/BLF
GENERALLY IN THE 010-025 RANGE. BLF HAS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO
009...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MAY SEE A FEW SC THROUGH
15Z...THEN SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCT OUT IN THE 15Z-17Z TIME
FRAME...WITH BLF/LWB LIKELY BEING THE LONGEST TO HOLD ONTO MVFR
CIGS. WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT GENERALLY WNW 8-12KTS
GUSTING TO 17-22KTS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING
QUICKLY TO NEAR CALM BY 23Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK TO THE SW
EARLY MON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL MAINLY IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THU.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 191136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY RESULTING
IN DRIER WEATHER UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SHAPED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MARK. FROST
ADVISORIES HAD BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS FOR MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR MOST
AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE
EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN
THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE
TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FROST EASTWARD...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE LOCATIONS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER.  FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE
RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT...MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS THERE ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR. STRONG
SHORT WAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST...BUT UPSLOPE NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ALLEGHANYS. CIGS ACROSS EASTERN WV...INCLUDING LWB/BLF
GENERALLY IN THE 010-025 RANGE. BLF HAS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO
009...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MAY SEE A FEW SC THROUGH
15Z...THEN SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCT OUT IN THE 15Z-17Z TIME
FRAME...WITH BLF/LWB LIKELY BEING THE LONGEST TO HOLD ONTO MVFR
CIGS. WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT GENERALLY WNW 8-12KTS
GUSTING TO 17-22KTS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING
QUICKLY TO NEAR CALM BY 23Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK TO THE SW
EARLY MON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA. LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL MAINLY IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THU.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 190954
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
453 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY RESULTING
IN DRIER WEATHER UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SHAPED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MARK. FROST
ADVISORIES HAD BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS FOR MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR MOST
AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE
EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN
THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE
TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FROST EASTWARD...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE LOCATIONS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER.  FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE
RIDGE TOPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. SCT TO BKN MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH EXIT BY 12Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

LOCAL MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATES WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN
NOW AND 09Z ..THEN DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


UPSLOPE GENERATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 09Z...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TOWARD DAWN THAT A FEW SNOW FLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAIL
END OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR KLWB.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. KLWB AND KBLF WILL BE THE LAST TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/PH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 190954
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
453 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY RESULTING
IN DRIER WEATHER UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SHAPED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MARK. FROST
ADVISORIES HAD BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS FOR MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR MOST
AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE
EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN
THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE
TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FROST EASTWARD...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE LOCATIONS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER.  FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE
RIDGE TOPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. SCT TO BKN MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH EXIT BY 12Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

LOCAL MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATES WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN
NOW AND 09Z ..THEN DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


UPSLOPE GENERATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 09Z...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TOWARD DAWN THAT A FEW SNOW FLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAIL
END OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR KLWB.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. KLWB AND KBLF WILL BE THE LAST TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 190853
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
453 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. SCT TO BKN MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH EXIT BY 12Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

LOCAL MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATES WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN
NOW AND 09Z ..THEN DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


UPSLOPE GENERATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 09Z...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TOWARD DAWN THAT A FEW SNOW FLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAIL
END OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR KLWB.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. KLWB AND KBLF WILL BE THE LAST TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 190853
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
453 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MON. COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT 12Z
MON ALONG THE NC COAST. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE MON MORNING...QUICKLY ALLEVIATING ANY FURTHER CONCERNS WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS A TRACK N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INITIAL STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD...AS WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY...SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS MON
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE NW-W PART OF
THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH LIKELY LITTLE
MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WELL N-NE OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SUBTLE LOBES OF PVA
SLATED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE -SHRA AT
TIMES...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS FROM GREENBRIER DOWN
TOWARD MERCER AND TAZEWELL. WITH THE REGION ON THE COLDER WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 850MB
TEMPS...SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS NEAR 0C ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...BUT MOSTLY AFTER THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE REGION. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND MARGINAL 850MB
TEMPS WILL ALLOW ME TO NOT MENTION ANY THREAT OF WINTER PCPN AT
THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND THE
AIR MASS ENTIRELY TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MENTION ANY
THUNDER. MODEL RUN QPF IS MINISCULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY ON A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND MOSTLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH QPF AS WELL AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY NE OF THE REGION.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL 850MB
TEMPS...NW SFC FLOW...AND COLD CORE ALOFT INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND
TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED NEAR
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SW DESERT STATES INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND AT ANY RATE REMAINS
BLOCKED FROM REACHING AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
THANKS TO THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THUS...MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
-SHRA AFT THU. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END BY
FRI/SAT. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. SCT TO BKN MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH EXIT BY 12Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

LOCAL MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATES WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN
NOW AND 09Z ..THEN DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


UPSLOPE GENERATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 09Z...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TOWARD DAWN THAT A FEW SNOW FLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAIL
END OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR KLWB.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. KLWB AND KBLF WILL BE THE LAST TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044-508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/PH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 190536
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS MORNING.

AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE PIEDMONT LATE. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK
RAOB AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HELP SHOWERS EXPAND OVER THE FAR
WEST AGAIN SHORTLY BEFORE COVERAGE AGAIN FADES A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THUS KEEPING HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH ONLY LINGERING SPILLOVER CLOUDS OUT EAST A BIT LONGER
BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES AND DOWNSLOPE INCREASES. PROFILES ALSO SHOW
THINGS COLD ENOUGH AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OVER THE NW TO
SUPPORT SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS SO BUMPED UP COVERAGE BUT EXPECTING
OVERALL QPF TO BE VERY LIGHT. OTRW APPEARS EXPANSIVE CLOUDS AND
MIXING WITH THE 85H JET REACHING AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS UP SOME WEST. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DIGGING COLD POOL OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHTER WIND GRADIENT EAST...STAYED ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MOS WITH SOME 30S WEST AND 40-45 EAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS
DECREASING FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO
OUR EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER.
WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR OF THE
SEASON FOR MOST AREA...THE THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS GOING TO MITIGATE
THE EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. IT MAY BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE
THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED
MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS
THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...THIS AREA WILL BE STILL CLOSEST TO THE CENTER
OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
WEAKER...PLUS HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE GIVEN A
MORE LAMINAR FLOW ALOFT AND STEEPER TOPOGRAPHY.

FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE RIDGE TOPS. IN
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH AND WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION.
LIKEWISE...SOME LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 30S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. A PATCHWORK OF FROST POSSIBILITIES
STILL DOTS MY FORECAST MAP. OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL STILL
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WE ARE STILL TO FAR AWAY IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE POSTING OF
ANY FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY...BOTH WESTERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...ARE FORECAST TO REACH
LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT THAT A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT NO LOCATIONS
FORECAST AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...PATCHY
FROST STILL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROUGHLY
AMHERST...BEDFORD AND MARTINSVILLE VA. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THAT
A FROST ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE POSTED IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE
MORE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FROST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE PATCHY
FROST IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THE LATE MORNING MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE MIXED NICELY
TO THE SURFACE TO HELP START THE PROCESS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ANY FROST IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST ROUGHLY 900 AM. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAIN AND
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BY
SUNSET ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 64 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE AXIS OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE
REGIONS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE WEST...BUT BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING...THERE STILL WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CENTER OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT START TO SLIDE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DO JUST THAT...SLOWLY DEPART. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL MAINTAIN SOME
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE LIMITED
CLOUD COVER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND WINDS A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE LOW DEPARTS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT OUR
PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY...THUS SHUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE
MACHINE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BUILDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. DRY
CONDITIONS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND
STILL A BIT OF A NORTH BREEZE WILL BE THE FORECAST FOR THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. SCT TO BKN MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH EXIT BY 12Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

LOCAL MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATES WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN
NOW AND 09Z ..THEN DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


UPSLOPE GENERATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 09Z...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TOWARD DAWN THAT A FEW SNOW FLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAIL
END OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR KLWB.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. KLWB AND KBLF WILL BE THE LAST TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PH/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 190536
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS MORNING.

AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE PIEDMONT LATE. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK
RAOB AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HELP SHOWERS EXPAND OVER THE FAR
WEST AGAIN SHORTLY BEFORE COVERAGE AGAIN FADES A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THUS KEEPING HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH ONLY LINGERING SPILLOVER CLOUDS OUT EAST A BIT LONGER
BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES AND DOWNSLOPE INCREASES. PROFILES ALSO SHOW
THINGS COLD ENOUGH AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OVER THE NW TO
SUPPORT SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS SO BUMPED UP COVERAGE BUT EXPECTING
OVERALL QPF TO BE VERY LIGHT. OTRW APPEARS EXPANSIVE CLOUDS AND
MIXING WITH THE 85H JET REACHING AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS UP SOME WEST. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DIGGING COLD POOL OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHTER WIND GRADIENT EAST...STAYED ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MOS WITH SOME 30S WEST AND 40-45 EAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS
DECREASING FROM EAST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO
OUR EAST ALL WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AT 850 MB AND HIGHER.
WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR OF THE
SEASON FOR MOST AREA...THE THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS GOING TO MITIGATE
THE EXTENT OF THE COOL DOWN. IT MAY BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE
THE RIDGE TOPS STAY MILDER THAN THE VALLEYS THANKS TO CONTINUED
MIXING OF WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THE ELEVATIONS
THEMSELVES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...THIS AREA WILL BE STILL CLOSEST TO THE CENTER
OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
WEAKER...PLUS HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE GIVEN A
MORE LAMINAR FLOW ALOFT AND STEEPER TOPOGRAPHY.

FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AT THE RIDGE TOPS. IN
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH AND WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION.
LIKEWISE...SOME LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 30S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. A PATCHWORK OF FROST POSSIBILITIES
STILL DOTS MY FORECAST MAP. OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL STILL
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WE ARE STILL TO FAR AWAY IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE POSTING OF
ANY FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY...BOTH WESTERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...ARE FORECAST TO REACH
LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT THAT A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT NO LOCATIONS
FORECAST AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...PATCHY
FROST STILL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROUGHLY
AMHERST...BEDFORD AND MARTINSVILLE VA. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THAT
A FROST ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE POSTED IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE
MORE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FROST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE PATCHY
FROST IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THE LATE MORNING MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE MIXED NICELY
TO THE SURFACE TO HELP START THE PROCESS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ANY FROST IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE PAST ROUGHLY 900 AM. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAIN AND
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BY
SUNSET ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 64 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE AXIS OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE
REGIONS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE WEST...BUT BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING...THERE STILL WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CENTER OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT START TO SLIDE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DO JUST THAT...SLOWLY DEPART. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL MAINTAIN SOME
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE LIMITED
CLOUD COVER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND WINDS A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE LOW DEPARTS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT OUR
PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY...THUS SHUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE
MACHINE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BUILDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. DRY
CONDITIONS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND
STILL A BIT OF A NORTH BREEZE WILL BE THE FORECAST FOR THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. SCT TO BKN MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH EXIT BY 12Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

LOCAL MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATES WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN
NOW AND 09Z ..THEN DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


UPSLOPE GENERATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 09Z...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TOWARD DAWN THAT A FEW SNOW FLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAIL
END OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR KLWB.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. KLWB AND KBLF WILL BE THE LAST TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCT -SHRA AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PH/KK





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