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000
FXUS61 KRNK 241750
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
150 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM EDT THURSDAY...

DEBRIS CLOUD COVER STILL HANGING TOUGH FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN
THESE AREAS...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO THIN ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT JUMP UPWARD ONCE
THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH IN THESE AREAS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED A LITTLE TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE READINGS THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES TOO
HIGH. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 1025 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
FIRST...THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE THE VALLEYS APPROACH
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
DEBRIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO
OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...SKY GRIDS WILL ADVERTISE
30-70 PERCENT CLOUD COVER TODAY...INCREASING TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF /0.25-0.50/ INCH BY STORMS END. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY DRY. BOTH THE ECM/NAM BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARDS
THE HILLS CITY OF LYNCHBURG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER
AND HOLDS THIS FRONT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MAY BRING JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GOING INTO SUNDAY.

THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING MILD IN THE 40S WEST TO
NEAR 50F IN THE EAST. WITH A WARM START TO SATURDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF THE WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TOWARD
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH...AND SOME CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
OVER THE AREA FROM A COLD FRONT WELL UPSTREAM IN THE GREAT PLAINS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER BY DAYBREAK...WITH A FAIRLY GOOD POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR AS NOTED IN THE LAMP GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE
BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR
ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUD COVER HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ARE FALLING TOWARD 20-30
PERCENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND FUEL MOISTURE HAS RAISED
CONCERNS WITH ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. AT REQUEST OF THE VIRGINIA
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY AND IN COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED THROUGH 7 PM
EDT TODAY. RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER LATER TONIGHT...AND A COLD
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME WETTING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PM/PW
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241556
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1156 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM EDT THURSDAY...

DEBRIS CLOUD COVER STILL HANGING TOUGH FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN
THESE AREAS...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO THIN ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT JUMP UPWARD ONCE
THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH IN THESE AREAS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED A LITTLE TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE READINGS THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES TOO
HIGH. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 1025 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
FIRST...THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE THE VALLEYS APPROACH
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
DEBRIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO
OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...SKY GRIDS WILL ADVERTISE
30-70 PERCENT CLOUD COVER TODAY...INCREASING TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF /0.25-0.50/ INCH BY STORMS END. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY DRY. BOTH THE ECM/NAM BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARDS
THE HILLS CITY OF LYNCHBURG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER
AND HOLDS THIS FRONT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MAY BRING JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GOING INTO SUNDAY.

THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING MILD IN THE 40S WEST TO
NEAR 50F IN THE EAST. WITH A WARM START TO SATURDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF THE WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
THROUGH 12Z/8AM FRIDAY.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD
TODAY...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SCT-BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...COURTESY OF A MID CONUS
STORM SYSTEM.

MID CONUS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AROUND MID-DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ASIDE FOR THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ONE MORE DAY OF LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE MORNING.
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL DIP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STILL LESS THAN 10 MPH. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WETTING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PM/PW
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM/PW





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241426
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1026 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
FIRST...THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE THE VALLEYS APPROACH
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
DEBRIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO
OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...SKY GRIDS WILL ADVERTISE
30-70 PERCENT CLOUD COVER TODAY...INCREASING TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF /0.25-0.50/ INCH BY STORMS END. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY DRY. BOTH THE ECM/NAM BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARDS
THE HILLS CITY OF LYNCHBURG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER
AND HOLDS THIS FRONT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MAY BRING JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GOING INTO SUNDAY.

THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING MILD IN THE 40S WEST TO
NEAR 50F IN THE EAST. WITH A WARM START TO SATURDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF THE WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
THROUGH 12Z/8AM FRIDAY.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD
TODAY...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SCT-BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...COURTESY OF A MID CONUS
STORM SYSTEM.

MID CONUS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AROUND MID-DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ASIDE FOR THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ONE MORE DAY OF LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE MORNING.
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL DIP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STILL LESS THAN 10 MPH. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WETTING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PM/PW
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM/PW





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID PART OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT THURSDAY...

1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE US
ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...YIELDING A NICE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S...TESTING 70
DURING THE PEAK HEATING PART OF THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID CONUS. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA UNTIL FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE
30-70 PERCENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...INCREASING TO
70 TO 100 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF /0.25-0.50/ INCH BY STORMS END. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY DRY. BOTH THE ECM/NAM BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARDS
THE HILLS CITY OF LYNCHBURG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER
AND HOLDS THIS FRONT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MAY BRING JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GOING INTO SUNDAY.

THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING MILD IN THE 40S WEST TO
NEAR 50F IN THE EAST. WITH A WARM START TO SATURDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF THE WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
THROUGH 12Z/8AM FRIDAY.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD
TODAY...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SCT-BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...COURTESY OF A MID CONUS
STORM SYSTEM.

MID CONUS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AROUND MID-DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ASIDE FOR THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ONE MORE DAY OF LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
WILL DIP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE PEAK HEATING
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WETTING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 240819
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID PART OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE HIGHLANDS OF VA AND
INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF WV...READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. THE
TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD WAS STILL PRETTY LARGE...SO LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FROST EXPECTED.

1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE US
ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...YIELDING A NICE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S...TESTING 70
DURING THE PEAK HEATING PART OF THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID CONUS. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA UNTIL FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE
30-60 PERCENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...INCREASING TO 60
TO 90 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF /0.25-0.50/ INCH BY STORMS END. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY DRY. BOTH THE ECM/NAM BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARDS
THE HILLS CITY OF LYNCHBURG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER
AND HOLDS THIS FRONT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MAY BRING JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GOING INTO SUNDAY.

THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING MILD IN THE 40S WEST TO
NEAR 50F IN THE EAST. WITH A WARM START TO SATURDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF THE WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
THROUGH 12Z/8AM FRIDAY.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD
TODAY...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SCT-BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...COURTESY OF A MID CONUS
STORM SYSTEM.

MID CONUS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AROUND MID-DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ASIDE FOR THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ONE MORE DAY OF LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
WILL DIP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE PEAK HEATING
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WETTING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 240818
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
418 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID PART OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE HIGHLANDS OF VA AND
INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF WV...READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. THE
TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD WAS STILL PRETTY LARGE...SO LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FROST EXPECTED.

1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE US
ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...YIELDING A NICE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S...TESTING 70
DURING THE PEAK HEATING PART OF THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID CONUS. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA UNTIL FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE
30-60 PERCENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...INCREASING TO 60
TO 90 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF /0.25-0.50/ INCH BY STORMS END. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY DRY. BOTH THE ECM/NAM BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARDS
THE HILLS CITY OF LYNCHBURG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER
AND HOLDS THIS FRONT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MAY BRING JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GOING INTO SUNDAY.

THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING MILD IN THE 40S WEST TO
NEAR 50F IN THE EAST. WITH A WARM START TO SATURDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF THE WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
THROUGH 12Z/8AM FRIDAY.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD
TODAY...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SCT-BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...COURTESY OF A MID CONUS
STORM SYSTEM.

MID CONUS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AROUND MID-DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ASIDE FOR THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ONE MORE DAY OF LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
WILL DIP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE PEAK HEATING
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WETTING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 232331
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
731 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COOL SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE BUT ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
TONIGHT AND THE ONSET OF WEAK SW FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE DEPARTS. MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE
WEST LATER THURSDAY OTRW CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY SUNNY
THURSDAY.

MAIN CONCERN WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW AND
WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS WOULD SUPPORT VALUES GOING
BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME 20S VALLEYS...AND WELL INTO
THE 30S OUT EAST WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. HOWEVER
SIMILAR TO TEMPS A FEW NIGHTS BACK...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK
QUITE LARGE GIVEN DRY AIR WHICH WONT SUPPORT MUCH FROST OUTSIDE
THE BOTTOMS/LOW SPOTS...WHILE COLDEST VALUES WILL BE BRIEF NEAR
DAWN PENDING HOW FAR WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING SITES...HAVE OPTED OUT OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW
WHILE INCREASING THE PATCHY COVERAGE EAST LATE WITH LOWS MAINLY
MID/UPPER 30S. SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER ON THURSDAY PER 85H WARMING
AND WEAK SW FLOW AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR WHICH WILL PUSH MOST
INTO THE 60S IF NOT LOW 70S IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND 12Z/8AM FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

WILL SPEED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS TIMING...APPEARS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AS A SECONDARY FRONT COMES IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A MORE PRONOUNCED PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND A FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL
KEEP THE WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF
THE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD
AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ELSW FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER WHERE WINDS WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND FUELS A BIT
WETTER.

OTRW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR
20 PERCENT WILL ALSO BE COMMON RESULTING IN CONTINUED MARGINAL RED
FLAG CRITERIA UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7
DAYS SINCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND
THE IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME
DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE DROPPING TO
AROUND 7 PERCENT OR LOWER.

CONCERN IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS RECOVERING TO 70-80 PERCENT OR HIGHER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SW UNDER 10 MPH. HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN
DROP WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING
TO BELOW 25-30 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SOME WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231948
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COOL SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE BUT ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
TONIGHT AND THE ONSET OF WEAK SW FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE DEPARTS. MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE
WEST LATER THURSDAY OTRW CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY SUNNY
THURSDAY.

MAIN CONCERN WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW AND
WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS WOULD SUPPORT VALUES GOING
BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME 20S VALLEYS...AND WELL INTO
THE 30S OUT EAST WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. HOWEVER
SIMILAR TO TEMPS A FEW NIGHTS BACK...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK
QUITE LARGE GIVEN DRY AIR WHICH WONT SUPPORT MUCH FROST OUTSIDE
THE BOTTOMS/LOW SPOTS...WHILE COLDEST VALUES WILL BE BRIEF NEAR
DAWN PENDING HOW FAR WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING SITES...HAVE OPTED OUT OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW
WHILE INCREASING THE PATCHY COVERAGE EAST LATE WITH LOWS MAINLY
MID/UPPER 30S. SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER ON THURSDAY PER 85H WARMING
AND WEAK SW FLOW AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR WHICH WILL PUSH MOST
INTO THE 60S IF NOT LOW 70S IN SPOTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND 12Z/8AM FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

WILL SPEED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS TIMING...APPEARS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AS A SECONDARY FRONT COMES IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A MORE PRONOUNCED PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND A FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL
KEEP THE WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF
THE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED 12-17 KTS INCLUDING
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY ON MONDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ELSW FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER WHERE WINDS WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND FUELS A BIT
WETTER.

OTRW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR
20 PERCENT WILL ALSO BE COMMON RESULTING IN CONTINUED MARGINAL RED
FLAG CRITERIA UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7
DAYS SINCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND
THE IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME
DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE DROPPING TO
AROUND 7 PERCENT OR LOWER.

CONCERN IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS RECOVERING TO 70-80 PERCENT OR HIGHER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SW UNDER 10 MPH. HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN
DROP WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING
TO BELOW 25-30 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SOME WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM
FIRE WEATHER...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231710
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
110 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EAST PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WITH ONGOING COOL ADVECTION TO
PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDEST AIR AT 85H PASSING
ACROSS THIS MORNING. THE AIR REMAINS VERY DRY PER ARID PWATS OFF
MORNING SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN WITH HEATING AND THE
LINGERING NW JET ALOFT. THIS WILL ERODE ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE FAR NW BY MIDDAY ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER
GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON
TRACK WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING OF DRY AIR AN OFFSET TO COOL
ADVECTION OUT EAST WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. COOL
POOL ALOFT UNDER STRONGER NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WEST AT
OR BELOW 60 FOR THE MOST PART ESPCLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE 50-55
MOST LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE 1022MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN...A COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. IN SPITE OF ITS
COOL NATURE...THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP BALANCE SOME
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
50 DEG F.

THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CRISP NIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL DIP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...LOWS RANGING FROM 30
DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF FROST...BUT BASED
ON THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...LACK OF
MOISTURE MAY PROHIBIT MUCH FROST. ATTM WILL ADVERTISE PATCHY
FROST...BUT THINK THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PROMOTE
FROST...SUCH AS CREEK BOTTOMS...ETC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ENTERING THE WEST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE AREA BY SUNSET. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START/ENDING PRECIP TIMING WITH THE GFS A COUPLE
OF HOURS FAST AND THE ECM AN HOUR OR SO SLOWER. DESPITE THE
RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED 12-17 KTS INCLUDING
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY ON MONDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE NORTHWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ELSW THIS AFTERNOON FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER WHERE WINDS WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND FUELS A BIT WETTER.
MOST CRITICAL AREA OUTSIDE THE RED FLAG HEADLINE WILL BE OVER THE
NW NC MOUNTAINS GIVEN THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER AFTER COORDINATION WITH NC
FORESTRY OFFICIALS WILL KEEP THE STATEMENT GOING GIVEN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS IN THAT AREA.

OTRW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR 20
PERCENT WILL ALSO BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7 DAYS
SINCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND THE
IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME
DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE DROPPING
TO AROUND 7 PERCENT OR LOWER.

CONCERN IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/PM
FIRE WEATHER...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231412
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1012 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EAST PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WITH ONGOING COOL ADVECTION TO
PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDEST AIR AT 85H PASSING
ACROSS THIS MORNING. THE AIR REMAINS VERY DRY PER ARID PWATS OFF
MORNING SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN WITH HEATING AND THE
LINGERING NW JET ALOFT. THIS WILL ERODE ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE FAR NW BY MIDDAY ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER
GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON
TRACK WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING OF DRY AIR AN OFFSET TO COOL
ADVECTION OUT EAST WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. COOL
POOL ALOFT UNDER STRONGER NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WEST AT
OR BELOW 60 FOR THE MOST PART ESPCLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE 50-55
MOST LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE 1022MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN...A COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. IN SPITE OF ITS
COOL NATURE...THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP BALANCE SOME
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
50 DEG F.

THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CRISP NIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL DIP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...LOWS RANGING FROM 30
DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF FROST...BUT BASED
ON THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...LACK OF
MOISTURE MAY PROHIBIT MUCH FROST. ATTM WILL ADVERTISE PATCHY
FROST...BUT THINK THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PROMOTE
FROST...SUCH AS CREEK BOTTOMS...ETC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ENTERING THE WEST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE AREA BY SUNSET. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START/ENDING PRECIP TIMING WITH THE GFS A COUPLE
OF HOURS FAST AND THE ECM AN HOUR OR SO SLOWER. DESPITE THE
RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FOR SOME SCT-BKN LOW CLOUD ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS IMPACTING BLF/LWB THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PD. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 22-28KTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVHD SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE NORTHWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ELSW THIS AFTERNOON FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER WHERE WINDS WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND FUELS A BIT WETTER.
MOST CRITICAL AREA OUTSIDE THE RED FLAG HEADLINE WILL BE OVER THE
NW NC MOUNTAINS GIVEN THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER AFTER COORDINATION WITH NC
FORESTRY OFFICIALS WILL KEEP THE STATEMENT GOING GIVEN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS IN THAT AREA.

OTRW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR 20
PERCENT WILL ALSO BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7 DAYS
SINCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND THE
IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME
DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE DROPPING
TO AROUND 7 PERCENT OR LOWER.

CONCERN IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231146
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
746 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL QUICKLY BUILD EAST PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE 1022MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN...A COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. IN SPITE OF ITS
COOL NATURE...THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP BALANCE SOME
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
50 DEG F.

THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CRISP NIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL DIP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...LOWS RANGING FROM 30
DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF FROST...BUT BASED
ON THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...LACK OF
MOISTURE MAY PROHIBIT MUCH FROST. ATTM WILL ADVERTISE PATCHY
FROST...BUT THINK THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PROMOTE
FROST...SUCH AS CREEK BOTTOMS...ETC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ENTERING THE WEST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE AREA BY SUNSET. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START/ENDING PRECIP TIMING WITH THE GFS A COUPLE
OF HOURS FAST AND THE ECM AN HOUR OR SO SLOWER. DESPITE THE
RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FOR SOME SCT-BKN LOW CLOUD ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS IMPACTING BLF/LWB THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PD. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 22-28KTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVHD SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE NORTHWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
WINDS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR 20 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7 DAYS SINCE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND THE IMMEDIATE BLUE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS
HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO
FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE NEAR 7 PERCENT.

CONCERN TODAY IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230844
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
444 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL QUICKLY BUILD EAST PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE 1022MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN...A COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. IN SPITE OF ITS
COOL NATURE...THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP BALANCE SOME
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
50 DEG F.

THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CRISP NIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL DIP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...LOWS RANGING FROM 30
DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF FROST...BUT BASED
ON THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...LACK OF
MOISTURE MAY PROHIBIT MUCH FROST. ATTM WILL ADVERTISE PATCHY
FROST...BUT THINK THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PROMOTE
FROST...SUCH AS CREEK BOTTOMS...ETC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ENTERING THE WEST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE AREA BY SUNSET. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START/ENDING PRECIP TIMING WITH THE GFS A COUPLE
OF HOURS FAST AND THE ECM AN HOUR OR SO SLOWER. DESPITE THE
RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ASIDE
FOR SOME SCT MID CLOUD...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. BIGGEST BY-
PRODUCT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED 12-18KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 22-28KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVHD SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE NORTHWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
WINDS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR 20 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7 DAYS SINCE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND THE IMMEDIATE BLUE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS
HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO
FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE NEAR 7 PERCENT.

CONCERN TODAY IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230613
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNEVENTFUL CFROPA OCCURRING ATTM AS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OUT AHEAD
ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROF...AND LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST
ABOUT DONE. AM LIKING THE LOCAL WRF SOLUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
WHICH PUSHES SOME LOW LEVEL RH SWD INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED UPSLOPE SHOWER FAR NW
BUT IT APPEARS TO BE BELOW CHC POPS SO WILL STAY WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. OTHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS JUST BELOW
CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY AROUND 40
KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN MIXING WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT
BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING
SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS
TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY THAT WILL SEE POCKETS OF FROST
DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
30S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. BY SUNRISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAKING THEIR
WAY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AS A
TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AT
THIS POINT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ASIDE
FOR SOME SCT MID CLOUD...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. BIGGEST BY-
PRODUCT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED 12-18KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 22-28KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVHD SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER.

&&


.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230157
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
957 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNEVENTFUL CFROPA OCCURRING ATTM AS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OUT AHEAD
ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROF...AND LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST
ABOUT DONE. AM LIKING THE LOCAL WRF SOLUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
WHICH PUSHES SOME LOW LEVEL RH SWD INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED UPSLOPE SHOWER FAR NW
BUT IT APPEARS TO BE BELOW CHC POPS SO WILL STAY WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. OTHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS JUST BELOW
CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY AROUND 40
KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN MIXING WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT
BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING
SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS
TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY THAT WILL SEE POCKETS OF FROST
DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
30S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. BY SUNRISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAKING THEIR
WAY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AS A
TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AT
THIS POINT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONTAL SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM EKN-CRW-LNP...WITH
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF VA. FIRST LINE
OF SHRA EXITED THE EASTERN CWA AROUND 21Z. SECOND LINE OF BROKEN
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA STILL EVIDENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS GENERALLY VFR AT THE CURRENT
TIME AND SHOULD REMAIN SO EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. ACROSS
EASTERN WV...UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
SC...WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...IF NOT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR
FOR A FEW HOURS AT BLF...POSSIBLY LWB. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THE EAST...BUT BCB MAY SEE LOW END VFR CIGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AFT 14Z WED...EXPECT ANY CLOUDS TO BECOME
SCT...WITH MOSTLY SKC EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE WIND. WIND SHIFT TO THE
WNW/NW AND INCREASING WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING...WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS NEAR 10KTS
AND GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF. AFT 14Z
WED...ALL SITES WILL SEE GUSTY WNW-NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH GOOD DRYING
OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
IN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WHICH PRESENTS THE
NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
MIXING AND WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230008
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
808 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO BETTER
ACCOMMODATE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND EVEN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS
EASTERN WV AND NORTHERN VA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
01-02Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD. WINDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
JUMP TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH AND PUSH EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME LEFTOVER ISOLATED SHRA BANDS
WEST INCLUDING UPSLOPE -SHRA ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. OTRW MAIN CONCERN WITH PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA THAT SHOULD EXIT THE SE AROUND PACKAGE RELEASE TIME...WITH
HIGH POPS QUICKLY TRANSLATING TO DRYING AS DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW KICKS
IN BEHIND THE BAND OF SHRA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVES AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS
JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY
AROUND 40 KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN
MIXING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT
BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING
SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS
TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY THAT WILL SEE POCKETS OF FROST
DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
30S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. BY SUNRISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAKING THEIR
WAY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AS A
TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AT
THIS POINT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONTAL SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM EKN-CRW-LNP...WITH
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF VA. FIRST LINE
OF SHRA EXITED THE EASTERN CWA AROUND 21Z. SECOND LINE OF BROKEN
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA STILL EVIDENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS GENERALLY VFR AT THE CURRENT
TIME AND SHOULD REMAIN SO EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. ACROSS
EASTERN WV...UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
SC...WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...IF NOT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR
FOR A FEW HOURS AT BLF...POSSIBLY LWB. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THE EAST...BUT BCB MAY SEE LOW END VFR CIGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AFT 14Z WED...EXPECT ANY CLOUDS TO BECOME
SCT...WITH MOSTLY SKC EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE WIND. WIND SHIFT TO THE
WNW/NW AND INCREASING WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING...WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS NEAR 10KTS
AND GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF. AFT 14Z
WED...ALL SITES WILL SEE GUSTY WNW-NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH GOOD DRYING
OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
IN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WHICH PRESENTS THE
NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
MIXING AND WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221946
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
346 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
JUMP TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH AND PUSH EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME LEFTOVER ISOLATED SHRA BANDS
WEST INCLUDING UPSLOPE -SHRA ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. OTRW MAIN CONCERN WITH PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA THAT SHOULD EXIT THE SE AROUND PACKAGE RELEASE TIME...WITH
HIGH POPS QUICKLY TRANSLATING TO DRYING AS DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW KICKS
IN BEHIND THE BAND OF SHRA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVES AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS
JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY
AROUND 40 KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN
MIXING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT
BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING
SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS
TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY THAT WILL SEE POCKETS OF FROST
DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
30S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. BY SUNRISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAKING THEIR
WAY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AS A
TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AT
THIS POINT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL REMAINING SOUTH/WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS GOING
FOR A WHILE LONGER AS WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO ERODE THE EASTWARD
PUSH OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE SW SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
EVENTUAL JUMP OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 19Z/3PM. OTRW BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LOWERING CIGS
UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIGHTER SHOWERS. BAND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS AND
SPOTTY -SHRA LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE
WEST VA. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN WITH STRONG
MIXING WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH GOOD DRYING
OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
IN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WHICH PRESENTS THE
NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
MIXING AND WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221913
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
313 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
JUMP TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH AND PUSH EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME LEFTOVER ISOLATED SHRA BANDS
WEST INCLUDING UPSLOPE -SHRA ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. OTRW MAIN CONCERN WITH PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA THAT SHOULD EXIT THE SE AROUND PACKAGE RELEASE TIME...WITH
HIGH POPS QUICKLY TRANSLATING TO DRYING AS DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW KICKS
IN BEHIND THE BAND OF SHRA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVES AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS
JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY
AROUND 40 KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN
MIXING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT
BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING
SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS
TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY
AIR.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND BE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL REMAINING SOUTH/WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS GOING
FOR A WHILE LONGER AS WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO ERODE THE EASTWARD
PUSH OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE SW SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
EVENTUAL JUMP OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 19Z/3PM. OTRW BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LOWERING CIGS
UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIGHTER SHOWERS. BAND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTTION IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS AND
SPOTTY -SHRA LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE
WEST VA. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN WITH STRONG
MIXING WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH GOOD DRYING
OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
IN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WHICH PRESENTS THE
NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
MIXING AND WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
DRY...WINDY AND COOLER DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A
PRECEDING BAND OF SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA DENOTED
BY A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BAND OF CLOUDS OFF VIS PICS. THIS PRE-
FRONTAL BAND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY AS IT CROSSES THE BLUE
RIDGE AFTER MIDDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS BRIEF LOW LEVEL BACKING
FROM THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EAST ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AXIS OF 85H THETA-E SNEAKING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. HOWEVER CURRENT INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE AS WELL AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SEEN
OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS. LATEST HRRR AND THE LOCAL RNK-WRF REMAIN
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AT LEAST SOME SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO NW NC AFTER 18Z/2PM AS A FAINT IMPULSE
NOW OVER ERN TN SHEARS EAST. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS LIMITED PER CURRENT DEWPOINTS SO ONLY HOLDING ONTO LIKELY
POPS FOR NOW TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD WITH BEST QPF OVER THE SW
AND LEAST OVER THE NORTH. OTRW TRIMMING POPS BACK A BIT SOONER FAR
WEST WHILE ADJUSTING TIMING CENTRAL/EAST. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE TO
CURRENT VALUES EXCEPT LOWERING SOME NW PER CURRENT CLDNS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BUT THESE ARE SO FAR DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
IT. FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODEST
WITH SREF MEMBERS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING MEAN MLCAPES GENERALLY
IN 400-600 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 7C. SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS THE REGION WELL WITHIN A SEE TEXT OR MARGINAL CHANCE
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON NOTING THE WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN FAR EAST IF
EARLY SOLAR HEATING IS ABLE TO BEAT THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER FOR A
FEW HOURS AND GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
HOLDING TOUGH ALL NIGHT WILL BE FINALLY DISPLACED BY MODEST
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH FORECAST PWATS
BRIEFLY REACHING 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER QPF ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION AND STEADY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY
EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. WINDS SHIFT INTO
WEST QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT AND SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW TO LOW 50S IN THE EAST BY
WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL REMAINING SOUTH/WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS GOING
FOR A WHILE LONGER AS WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO ERODE THE EASTWARD
PUSH OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE SW SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
EVENTUAL JUMP OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 19Z/3PM. OTRW BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LOWERING CIGS
UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIGHTER SHOWERS. BAND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTTION IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS AND
SPOTTY -SHRA LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE
WEST VA. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN WITH STRONG
MIXING WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
RAINFALL RANGING FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT UP TO
AROUND 0.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER
QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL IS
REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221417
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
DRY...WINDY AND COOLER DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A
PRECEDING BAND OF SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA DENOTED
BY A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BAND OF CLOUDS OFF VIS PICS. THIS PRE-
FRONTAL BAND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY AS IT CROSSES THE BLUE
RIDGE AFTER MIDDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS BRIEF LOW LEVEL BACKING
FROM THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EAST ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AXIS OF 85H THETA-E SNEAKING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. HOWEVER CURRENT INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE AS WELL AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SEEN
OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS. LATEST HRRR AND THE LOCAL RNK-WRF REMAIN
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AT LEAST SOME SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO NW NC AFTER 18Z/2PM AS A FAINT IMPULSE
NOW OVER ERN TN SHEARS EAST. THUS HOLDING ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR
NOW TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD WITH BEST QPF OVER THE SW AND LEAST
OVER THE NORTH. OTRW TRIMMING POPS BACK A BIT SOONER FAR WEST
WHILE ADJUSTING TIMING CENTRAL/EAST. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE TO CURRENT
VALUES EXCEPT LOWERING SOME NW PER CURRENT CLDNS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BUT THESE ARE SO FAR DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
IT. FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODEST
WITH SREF MEMBERS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING MEAN MLCAPES GENERALLY
IN 400-600 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 7C. SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS THE REGION WELL WITHIN A SEE TEXT OR MARGINAL CHANCE
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON NOTING THE WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN FAR EAST IF
EARLY SOLAR HEATING IS ABLE TO BEAT THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER FOR A
FEW HOURS AND GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
HOLDING TOUGH ALL NIGHT WILL BE FINALLY DISPLACED BY MODEST
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH FORECAST PWATS
BRIEFLY REACHING 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER QPF ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION AND STEADY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY
EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. WINDS SHIFT INTO
WEST QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT AND SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW TO LOW 50S IN THE EAST BY
WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0700 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LIGHTER SOWERS EXPECTED
OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD AS CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CHANGEABLE.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MODEST RAINFALL
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT UP TO AROUND
0.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP
IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL IS REALIZED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221106
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
706 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
DRY...WINDY AND COOLER DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BUT THESE ARE SO FAR DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
IT. FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODEST
WITH SREF MEMBERS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING MEAN MLCAPES GENERALLY
IN 400-600 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 7C. SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS THE REGION WELL WITHIN A SEE TEXT OR MARGINAL CHANCE
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON NOTING THE WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN FAR EAST IF
EARLY SOLAR HEATING IS ABLE TO BEAT THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER FOR A
FEW HOURS AND GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
HOLDING TOUGH ALL NIGHT WILL BE FINALLY DISPLACED BY MODEST
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH FORECAST PWATS
BRIEFLY REACHING 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER QPF ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION AND STEADY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY
EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. WINDS SHIFT INTO
WEST QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT AND SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW TO LOW 50S IN THE EAST BY
WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0700 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LIGHTER SOWERS EXPECTED
OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD AS CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CHANGEABLE.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 0415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY MODEST RAINFALL RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT UP TO AROUND 0.25
INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL IS
REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220818
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
418 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BUT THESE ARE SO FAR DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
IT. FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODEST
WITH SREF MEMBERS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING MEAN MLCAPES GENERALLY
IN 400-600 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 7C. SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS THE REGION WELL WITHIN A SEE TEXT OR MARGINAL CHANCE
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON NOTING THE WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN FAR EAST IF
EARLY SOLAR HEATING IS ABLE TO BEAT THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER FOR A
FEW HOURS AND GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
HOLDING TOUGH ALL NIGHT WILL BE FINALLY DISPLACED BY MODEST
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH FORECAST PWATS
BRIEFLY REACHING 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER QPF ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION AND STEADY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY
EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. WINDS SHIFT INTO
WEST QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT AND SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW TO LOW 50S IN THE EAST BY
WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH PASSING SHOWERS
WITH BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT BLF/LWB WITH ONLY
LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD AS CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CHANGEABLE.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 0415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY MODEST RAINFALL RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT UP TO AROUND 0.25
INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL IS
REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220543
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PASS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOCAL RNK WRFARW BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 08Z TUESDAY. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE CONVECTION BRING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN AROUND
10Z. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH CONVECTION. REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES
DEPICTED A FEW ECHOES MOSTLY ALOFT TO OUR WEST FIGHTING VERY DRY
AIR AS SEEN IN THE EVENING 00Z/8PM RNK SOUNDING. FIRST FEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. BY DAYBREAK
EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS TO MID 50S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LIMITED LAPSES RATES EXPECTED WITH STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 605 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. THIS EVENING RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS 1019 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG
DROPS IN THE EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING TEMPERATURES
OR STEADY IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR
THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A GOOD
EVENING.


AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND UPSTREAM 5H
HEIGHT FALLS DAMPEN OUT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO
THINKING THAT MOST -SHRA SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT THIS POINT. OTRW MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND PC EAST BY MORNING. LOWS A BIT TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE QUICK TEMP FALLS WHILE CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN
A STEADYING OUT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THEREFORE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS WEST ESPCLY
RIDGES...AND WITH THE COLDER MAV EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR
LONGER.

STILL QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEGREE OF QPF THAT MIGHT OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER IN PUSHING INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OUT EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE
TROUGH. HOWEVER APPEARS LOTS OF CLOUDS TO ARRIVE EARLY OVER THE WEST
WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING AND CAUSE A JUMP IN FADING SHRA OVER THE
WEST TO A DEEPER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE CWA GIVEN
DEEPENING DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL GO A BIT
SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF SOLUTION IN BRINGING SHRA INTO THE
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A FAINT WAVE ALOFT...THEN WEAKENING
BEFORE PERHAPS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON UNDER THE LEE TROUGH AS SEEING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
BACKING FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTRW SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LAPSES...WITH ONLY THE DRIER
LOW LEVELS POSSIBLY ENHANCING LOCALIZED WINDS IF ANY CELLS CAN
GET ORGANIZED/STRONG ENOUGH AND A SPLIT OUT EAST DOESN`T OCCUR.

THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FOR NOW WITH LESS SE GIVEN WEST
WINDS AND HIGHER PROBS NW WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH OF QPF COULD
OCCUR. ELSW APPEARS LOW QPF WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
EAST AND PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH ELSW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO PUSH 80 AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PIEDMONT...WITH
70S BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY MID/UPPER 60S WEST WHERE CLOUDS/-SHRA
COULD KEEP VALUES EVEN COOLER PENDING EARLIER TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY 00Z (7 PM EDT) TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. BUFKIT TIME CROSS
SECTION SHOWS 50 KTS ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 5KT FEET. BUMPED UP
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST
VALUES STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
COOLER GFS GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD DRYING ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...WITH A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH A RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH PASSING SHOWERS
WITH BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT BLF/LWB WITH ONLY
LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD AS CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CHANGEABLE.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 927 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOISTEN ABOVE
60-70 PERCENT BY EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH QPF RANGING
FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF WEST VA...TO A TENTH
OR QUARTER INCH BLUE RIDGE...TO LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH PIEDMONT. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY BE OF ADDED
CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL
IS REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220123
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
923 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PASS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOCAL RNK WRFARW BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 08Z TUESDAY. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE CONVECTION BRING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN AROUND
10Z. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH CONVECTION. REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES
DEPICTED A FEW ECHOES MOSTLY ALOFT TO OUR WEST FIGHTING VERY DRY
AIR AS SEEN IN THE EVENING 00Z/8PM RNK SOUNDING. FIRST FEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. BY DAYBREAK
EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS TO MID 50S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LIMITED LAPSES RATES EXPECTED WITH STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 605 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. THIS EVENING RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS 1019 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG
DROPS IN THE EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING TEMPERATURES
OR STEADY IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR
THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A GOOD
EVENING.


AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND UPSTREAM 5H
HEIGHT FALLS DAMPEN OUT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO
THINKING THAT MOST -SHRA SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT THIS POINT. OTRW MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND PC EAST BY MORNING. LOWS A BIT TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE QUICK TEMP FALLS WHILE CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN
A STEADYING OUT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THEREFORE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS WEST ESPCLY
RIDGES...AND WITH THE COLDER MAV EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR
LONGER.

STILL QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEGREE OF QPF THAT MIGHT OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER IN PUSHING INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OUT EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE
TROUGH. HOWEVER APPEARS LOTS OF CLOUDS TO ARRIVE EARLY OVER THE WEST
WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING AND CAUSE A JUMP IN FADING SHRA OVER THE
WEST TO A DEEPER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE CWA GIVEN
DEEPENING DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL GO A BIT
SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF SOLUTION IN BRINGING SHRA INTO THE
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A FAINT WAVE ALOFT...THEN WEAKENING
BEFORE PERHAPS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON UNDER THE LEE TROUGH AS SEEING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
BACKING FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTRW SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LAPSES...WITH ONLY THE DRIER
LOW LEVELS POSSIBLY ENHANCING LOCALIZED WINDS IF ANY CELLS CAN
GET ORGANIZED/STRONG ENOUGH AND A SPLIT OUT EAST DOESN`T OCCUR.

THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FOR NOW WITH LESS SE GIVEN WEST
WINDS AND HIGHER PROBS NW WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH OF QPF COULD
OCCUR. ELSW APPEARS LOW QPF WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
EAST AND PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH ELSW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO PUSH 80 AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PIEDMONT...WITH
70S BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY MID/UPPER 60S WEST WHERE CLOUDS/-SHRA
COULD KEEP VALUES EVEN COOLER PENDING EARLIER TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY 00Z (7 PM EDT) TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. BUFKIT TIME CROSS
SECTION SHOWS 50 KTS ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 5KT FEET. BUMPED UP
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST
VALUES STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
COOLER GFS GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD DRYING ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...WITH A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH A RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE
INCREASES TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME STRATO-CU OVER SE WEST VA LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL DRY
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER...APPEARS THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS SHOULD BE OVER BLF/LWB WITH ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 927 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOISTEN ABOVE
60-70 PERCENT BY EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH QPF RANGING
FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF WEST VA...TO A TENTH
OR QUARTER INCH BLUE RIDGE...TO LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH PIEDMONT. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY BE OF ADDED
CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL
IS REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/KK/WERT
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220115
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
915 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PASS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOCAL RNK WRFARW BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 08Z TUESDAY. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE CONVECTION BRING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN AROUND
10Z. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH CONVECTION. REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES
DEPICTED A FEW ECHOES MOSTLY ALOFT TO OUR WEST FIGHTING VERY DRY
AIR AS SEEN IN THE EVENING 00Z/8PM RNK SOUNDING. FIRST FEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. BY DAYBREAK
EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS TO MID 50S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LIMITED LAPSES RATES EXPECTED WITH STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 605 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. THIS EVENING RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS 1019 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG
DROPS IN THE EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING TEMPERATURES
OR STEADY IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR
THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A GOOD
EVENING.


AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND UPSTREAM 5H
HEIGHT FALLS DAMPEN OUT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO
THINKING THAT MOST -SHRA SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT THIS POINT. OTRW MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND PC EAST BY MORNING. LOWS A BIT TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE QUICK TEMP FALLS WHILE CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN
A STEADYING OUT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THEREFORE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS WEST ESPCLY
RIDGES...AND WITH THE COLDER MAV EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR
LONGER.

STILL QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEGREE OF QPF THAT MIGHT OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER IN PUSHING INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OUT EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE
TROUGH. HOWEVER APPEARS LOTS OF CLOUDS TO ARRIVE EARLY OVER THE WEST
WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING AND CAUSE A JUMP IN FADING SHRA OVER THE
WEST TO A DEEPER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE CWA GIVEN
DEEPENING DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL GO A BIT
SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF SOLUTION IN BRINGING SHRA INTO THE
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A FAINT WAVE ALOFT...THEN WEAKENING
BEFORE PERHAPS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON UNDER THE LEE TROUGH AS SEEING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
BACKING FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTRW SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LAPSES...WITH ONLY THE DRIER
LOW LEVELS POSSIBLY ENHANCING LOCALIZED WINDS IF ANY CELLS CAN
GET ORGANIZED/STRONG ENOUGH AND A SPLIT OUT EAST DOESN`T OCCUR.

THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FOR NOW WITH LESS SE GIVEN WEST
WINDS AND HIGHER PROBS NW WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH OF QPF COULD
OCCUR. ELSW APPEARS LOW QPF WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
EAST AND PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH ELSW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO PUSH 80 AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PIEDMONT...WITH
70S BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY MID/UPPER 60S WEST WHERE CLOUDS/-SHRA
COULD KEEP VALUES EVEN COOLER PENDING EARLIER TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY 00Z (7 PM EDT) TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. BUFKIT TIME CROSS
SECTION SHOWS 50 KTS ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 5KT FEET. BUMPED UP
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST
VALUES STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
COOLER GFS GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD DRYING ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...WITH A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH A RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE
INCREASES TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME STRATO-CU OVER SE WEST VA LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL DRY
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER...APPEARS THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS SHOULD BE OVER BLF/LWB WITH ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 255 PM EDT MONDAY...

LOW HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT PAST SUNSET. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BELOW 10 MPH WHILE TURNING
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH
VERY DRY FINE FUELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY INVOLVING BRUSH AND GRASS. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY RECOVER LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN MOISTEN ABOVE 60-70
PERCENT BY EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH QPF RANGING FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF WEST VA...TO A TENTH OR
QUARTER INCH BLUE RIDGE...TO LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
PIEDMONT. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY BE OF ADDED
CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL
IS REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/KK/WERT
FIRE WEATHER...JH/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 212341
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PASS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. THIS EVENING RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS 1019 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG
DROPS IN THE EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING TEMPERATURES
OR STEADY IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR
THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A GOOD
EVENING.


AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND UPSTREAM 5H
HEIGHT FALLS DAMPEN OUT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO
THINKING THAT MOST -SHRA SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT THIS POINT. OTRW MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND PC EAST BY MORNING. LOWS A BIT TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE QUICK TEMP FALLS WHILE CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN
A STEADYING OUT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THEREFORE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS WEST ESPCLY
RIDGES...AND WITH THE COLDER MAV EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR
LONGER.

STILL QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEGREE OF QPF THAT MIGHT OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER IN PUSHING INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OUT EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE
TROUGH. HOWEVER APPEARS LOTS OF CLOUDS TO ARRIVE EARLY OVER THE WEST
WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING AND CAUSE A JUMP IN FADING SHRA OVER THE
WEST TO A DEEPER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE CWA GIVEN
DEEPENING DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL GO A BIT
SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF SOLUTION IN BRINGING SHRA INTO THE
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A FAINT WAVE ALOFT...THEN WEAKENING
BEFORE PERHAPS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON UNDER THE LEE TROUGH AS SEEING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
BACKING FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTRW SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LAPSES...WITH ONLY THE DRIER
LOW LEVELS POSSIBLY ENHANCING LOCALIZED WINDS IF ANY CELLS CAN
GET ORGANIZED/STRONG ENOUGH AND A SPLIT OUT EAST DOESN`T OCCUR.

THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FOR NOW WITH LESS SE GIVEN WEST
WINDS AND HIGHER PROBS NW WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH OF QPF COULD
OCCUR. ELSW APPEARS LOW QPF WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
EAST AND PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH ELSW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO PUSH 80 AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PIEDMONT...WITH
70S BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY MID/UPPER 60S WEST WHERE CLOUDS/-SHRA
COULD KEEP VALUES EVEN COOLER PENDING EARLIER TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY 00Z (7 PM EDT) TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. BUFKIT TIME CROSS
SECTION SHOWS 50 KTS ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 5KT FEET. BUMPED UP
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST
VALUES STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
COOLER GFS GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD DRYING ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...WITH A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH A RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE
INCREASES TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME STRATO-CU OVER SE WEST VA LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL DRY
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER...APPEARS THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS SHOULD BE OVER BLF/LWB WITH ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 255 PM EDT MONDAY...

LOW HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT PAST SUNSET. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BELOW 10 MPH WHILE TURNING
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH
VERY DRY FINE FUELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY INVOLVING BRUSH AND GRASS. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY RECOVER LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN MOISTEN ABOVE 60-70
PERCENT BY EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH QPF RANGING FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF WEST VA...TO A TENTH OR
QUARTER INCH BLUE RIDGE...TO LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
PIEDMONT. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY BE OF ADDED
CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL
IS REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/WERT/KK
FIRE WEATHER...JH/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 212208
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
608 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PASS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. THIS EVENING RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS 1019 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG
DROPS IN THE EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING TEMPERATURES
OR STEADY IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR
THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A GOOD
EVENING.


AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND UPSTREAM 5H
HEIGHT FALLS DAMPEN OUT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO
THINKING THAT MOST -SHRA SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT THIS POINT. OTRW MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND PC EAST BY MORNING. LOWS A BIT TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE QUICK TEMP FALLS WHILE CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN
A STEADYING OUT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THEREFORE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS WEST ESPCLY
RIDGES...AND WITH THE COLDER MAV EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR
LONGER.

STILL QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEGREE OF QPF THAT MIGHT OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER IN PUSHING INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OUT EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE
TROUGH. HOWEVER APPEARS LOTS OF CLOUDS TO ARRIVE EARLY OVER THE WEST
WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING AND CAUSE A JUMP IN FADING SHRA OVER THE
WEST TO A DEEPER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE CWA GIVEN
DEEPENING DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL GO A BIT
SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF SOLUTION IN BRINGING SHRA INTO THE
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A FAINT WAVE ALOFT...THEN WEAKENING
BEFORE PERHAPS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON UNDER THE LEE TROUGH AS SEEING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
BACKING FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTRW SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LAPSES...WITH ONLY THE DRIER
LOW LEVELS POSSIBLY ENHANCING LOCALIZED WINDS IF ANY CELLS CAN
GET ORGANIZED/STRONG ENOUGH AND A SPLIT OUT EAST DOESN`T OCCUR.

THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FOR NOW WITH LESS SE GIVEN WEST
WINDS AND HIGHER PROBS NW WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH OF QPF COULD
OCCUR. ELSW APPEARS LOW QPF WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
EAST AND PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH ELSW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO PUSH 80 AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PIEDMONT...WITH
70S BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY MID/UPPER 60S WEST WHERE CLOUDS/-SHRA
COULD KEEP VALUES EVEN COOLER PENDING EARLIER TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY 00Z (7 PM EDT) TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. BUFKIT TIME CROSS
SECTION SHOWS 50 KTS ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 5KT FEET. BUMPED UP
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST
VALUES STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
COOLER GFS GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD DRYING ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...WITH A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH A RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM EDT MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE. WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME STRATO-CU OVER SE WEST VA
LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER APPEARS THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS SHOULD BE OVER BLF/LWB WITH ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
MORE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE ONLY ADDED MVFR CIGS TO THE SE WVA LOCATIONS
WITH INCLUSION OF VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THERE AS WELL.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 255 PM EDT MONDAY...

LOW HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT PAST SUNSET. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BELOW 10 MPH WHILE TURNING
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH
VERY DRY FINE FUELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY INVOLVING BRUSH AND GRASS. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY RECOVER LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN MOISTEN ABOVE 60-70
PERCENT BY EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH QPF RANGING FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF WEST VA...TO A TENTH OR
QUARTER INCH BLUE RIDGE...TO LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
PIEDMONT. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY BE OF ADDED
CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL
IS REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WERT
FIRE WEATHER...JH/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211907
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
307 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PASS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND UPSTREAM 5H
HEIGHT FALLS DAMPEN OUT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO
THINKING THAT MOST -SHRA SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT THIS POINT. OTRW MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND PC EAST BY MORNING. LOWS A BIT TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE QUICK TEMP FALLS WHILE CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN
A STEADYING OUT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THEREFORE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS WEST ESPCLY
RIDGES...AND WITH THE COLDER MAV EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR
LONGER.

STILL QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEGREE OF QPF THAT MIGHT OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER IN PUSHING INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OUT EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE
TROUGH. HOWEVER APPEARS LOTS OF CLOUDS TO ARRIVE EARLY OVER THE WEST
WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING AND CAUSE A JUMP IN FADING SHRA OVER THE
WEST TO A DEEPER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE CWA GIVEN
DEEPENING DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL GO A BIT
SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF SOLUTION IN BRINGING SHRA INTO THE
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A FAINT WAVE ALOFT...THEN WEAKENING
BEFORE PERHAPS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON UNDER THE LEE TROUGH AS SEEING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
BACKING FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTRW SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LAPSES...WITH ONLY THE DRIER
LOW LEVELS POSSIBLY ENHANCING LOCALIZED WINDS IF ANY CELLS CAN
GET ORGANIZED/STRONG ENOUGH AND A SPLIT OUT EAST DOESN`T OCCUR.

THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FOR NOW WITH LESS SE GIVEN WEST
WINDS AND HIGHER PROBS NW WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH OF QPF COULD
OCCUR. ELSW APPEARS LOW QPF WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
EAST AND PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH ELSW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO PUSH 80 AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PIEDMONT...WITH
70S BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY MID/UPPER 60S WEST WHERE CLOUDS/-SHRA
COULD KEEP VALUES EVEN COOLER PENDING EARLIER TIMING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY 00Z (7 PM EDT) TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. BUFKIT TIME CROSS
SECTION SHOWS 50 KTS ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 5KT FEET. BUMPED UP
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST
VALUES STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
COOLER GFS GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD DRYING ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...WITH A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH A RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 70.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM EDT MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE. WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME STRATO-CU OVER SE WEST VA
LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER APPEARS THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS SHOULD BE OVER BLF/LWB WITH ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
MORE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE ONLY ADDED MVFR CIGS TO THE SE WVA LOCATIONS
WITH INCLUSION OF VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THERE AS WELL.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 255 PM EDT MONDAY...

LOW HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT PAST SUNSET. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BELOW 10 MPH WHILE TURNING
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH
VERY DRY FINE FUELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY INVOLVING BRUSH AND GRASS. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY RECOVER LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN MOISTEN ABOVE 60-70
PERCENT BY EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH QPF RANGING FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF WEST VA...TO A TENTH OR
QUARTER INCH BLUE RIDGE...TO LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
PIEDMONT. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY BE OF ADDED
CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL
IS REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WERT
FIRE WEATHER...JH/WERT





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