000
FXUS61 KRNK 201741
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 927 AM EDT MONDAY...
THIS MORNING 8AM/12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP TO
600 MB WITH A PWAT AT 1.27 INCHES. KFCX 88D LOOP DISPLAYED STORMS
IN THE WEST DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE STORMS IN THE EAST PIVOTING
NORTHEAST. MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION BEING SHAPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER SLICING EASTWARD. WITH SLOW
MOVING OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER A SATURATED GROUND.
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. LOOKING AT
THE RNK WRFARW AND NAM FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I77 THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS
SHIFTS MAIN DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST. MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER.
AS OF 435 AM EDT MONDAY...
BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS...CENTER OF
SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR THE VA/TN/NC BORDER. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
HAVE THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z/8PM
TONIGHT. STARTING OUT WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS TODAY BUT AS WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST SHOULD GETS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPSLOPE
WEAKENS.
RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THE 00Z
LOCAL WRF FORECAST A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA. DIRECTION STORMS WILL MOVE WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
SHORT WAVE TRACKS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH. ALL MODELS HAD THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TREND. 850 MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
TODAY...BRINING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCING THE LIFT
WITH THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARMUP TODAY.
LEANED TOWARD MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A PATCH OF DRIER AIR AT H7 BOTH OF THESE DAYS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE...BUT FOR THE STORMS THAT DO PUNCH THROUGH THIS
LAYER...THEY COULD BE STRONG. H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT NEAR +17C ON TUESDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 90F IN THE
CITIES...SO WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS TEMPS. SEEMS AS THOUGH NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE LESS INSTABILITY BECAUSE THE HIGH TEMPS ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN H85 ADJUSTMENTS WOULD SUGGEST. STRONGER STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY TO LIMIT MORE NUMEROUS AND
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. LATEST 0Z ECMWF DELIVERING A
GOOD CHUNK OF COOLER AIR BY 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS SE WEST VA WITH H85
TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE REST OF HE
MODEL SUITE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.
COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. SHAPED FORECAST TOWARDS THE 06Z WRFARW ARW WHICH
CAPTURE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE BEST. KFCX 88D LOOP SHOWED
STORMS IN THE WEST LWB TO TNB MOVING SOUTH AND LINE NEAR DAN
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TRAVELING EAST. BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING TONIGHT.
EXPECTED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/KK
000
FXUS61 KRNK 201327
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
927 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING 8AM/12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP TO
600 MB WITH A PWAT AT 1.27 INCHES. WFCX 88D LOOP DISPLAYED STORMS
IN THE WEST DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE STORMS IN THE EAST PIVOTING
NORTHEAST. MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION BEING SHAPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER SLICING EASTWARD. WITH SLOW
MOVING OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER A SATURDATED GROUND.
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. LOOKING AT
THE RNK WRFARW AND NAM FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I77 THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS
SHIFTS MAIN DEVELOPEMENT IN OUR EAST. MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER.
AS OF 435 AM EDT MONDAY...
BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS...CENTER OF
SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR THE VA/TN/NC BORDER. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
HAVE THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z/8PM
TONIGHT. STARTING OUT WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS TODAY BUT AS WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST SHOULD GETS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPSLOPE
WEAKENS.
RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THE 00Z
LOCAL WRF FORECAST A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA. DIRECTION STORMS WILL MOVE WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
SHORT WAVE TRACKS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH. ALL MODELS HAD THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TREND. 850 MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
TODAY...BRINING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCING THE LIFT
WITH THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARMUP TODAY.
LEANED TOWARD MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A PATCH OF DRIER AIR AT H7 BOTH OF THESE DAYS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE...BUT FOR THE STORMS THAT DO PUNCH THROUGH THIS
LAYER...THEY COULD BE STRONG. H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT NEAR +17C ON TUESDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 90F IN THE
CITIES...SO WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS TEMPS. SEEMS AS THOUGH NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE LESS INSTABILITY BECAUSE THE HIGH TEMPS ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN H85 ADJUSTMENTS WOULD SUGGEST. STRONGER STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY TO LIMIT MORE NUMEROUS AND
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. LATEST 0Z ECMWF DELIVERING A
GOOD CHUNK OF COOLER AIR BY 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS SE WEST VA WITH H85
TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE REST OF HE
MODEL SUITE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.
COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...
LOCAL RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF BLF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING
SSE AND MAY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE BLF AIRPORT THROUGH 14Z/10AM.
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY...ENDING THE UPSLOPE
FLOW. EXPECT TAF SITES (BLF/ROA/LWB/BCB/DAN/LYH) TO BE MVFR BY
1PM.
A SHORT WAVE SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL AGAIN TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE
VERY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 201134
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
734 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT MONDAY...
BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS...CENTER OF
SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR THE VA/TN/NC BORDER. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
HAVE THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z/8PM
TONIGHT. STARTING OUT WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS TODAY BUT AS WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST SHOULD GETS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPSLOPE
WEAKENS.
RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THE 00Z
LOCAL WRF FORECAST A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA. DIRECTION STORMS WILL MOVE WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
SHORT WAVE TRACKS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH. ALL MODELS HAD THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TREND. 850 MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
TODAY...BRINING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCING THE LIFT
WITH THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARMUP TODAY.
LEANED TOWARD MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A PATCH OF DRIER AIR AT H7 BOTH OF THESE DAYS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE...BUT FOR THE STORMS THAT DO PUNCH THROUGH THIS
LAYER...THEY COULD BE STRONG. H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT NEAR +17C ON TUESDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 90F IN THE
CITIES...SO WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS TEMPS. SEEMS AS THOUGH NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE LESS INSTABILITY BECAUSE THE HIGH TEMPS ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN H85 ADJUSTMENTS WOULD SUGGEST. STRONGER STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY TO LIMIT MORE NUMEROUS AND
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. LATEST 0Z ECMWF DELIVERING A
GOOD CHUNK OF COOLER AIR BY 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS SE WEST VA WITH H85
TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE REST OF HE
MODEL SUITE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.
COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...
LOCAL RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF BLF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING
SSE AND MAY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE BLF AIRPORT THROUGH 14Z/10AM.
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY...ENDING THE UPSLOPE
FLOW. EXPECT TAF SITES (BLF/ROA/LWB/BCB/DAN/LYH) TO BE MVFR BY
1PM.
A SHORT WAVE SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL AGAIN TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE
VERY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 200848
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
448 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT MONDAY...
BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS...CENTER OF
SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR THE VA/TN/NC BORDER. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
HAVE THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z/8PM
TONIGHT. STARTING OUT WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS TODAY BUT AS WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST SHOULD GETS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPSLOPE
WEAKENS.
RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THE 00Z
LOCAL WRF FORECAST A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA. DIRECTION STORMS WILL MOVE WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
SHORT WAVE TRACKS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH. ALL MODELS HAD THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TREND. 850 MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
TODAY...BRINING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCING THE LIFT
WITH THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARMUP TODAY.
LEANED TOWARD MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A PATCH OF DRIER AIR AT H7 BOTH OF THESE DAYS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE...BUT FOR THE STORMS THAT DO PUNCH THROUGH THIS
LAYER...THEY COULD BE STRONG. H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT NEAR +17C ON TUESDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 90F IN THE
CITIES...SO WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS TEMPS. SEEMS AS THOUGH NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE LESS INSTABILITY BECAUSE THE HIGH TEMPS ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN H85 ADJUSTMENTS WOULD SUGGEST. STRONGER STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY TO LIMIT MORE NUMEROUS AND
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. LATEST 0Z ECMWF DELIVERING A
GOOD CHUNK OF COOLER AIR BY 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS SE WEST VA WITH H85
TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE REST OF HE
MODEL SUITE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.
COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
LOCAL RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LYH AND DAN MAY GET A
SHOWER WITH HEAVY RAIN BEFORE 09Z. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 14Z/10 AM THIS
MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY...ENDING THE UPSLOPE
FLOW. A SHORT WAVE SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL AGAIN
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 200606
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
206 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS THIS EVENING FELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 77
WHERE UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF
GRAYSON...SMYTH AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES. HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
ROADS CLOSED FROM HIGH WATER FROM SALTVILLE TO RICHLANDS...AND ONE
REPORT OF LARGE HAIL...AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER...IN SALTVILLE.
SINCE SUNSET...RAIN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAS BEEN DECREASING.
UPPER TROUGH IS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVHD. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN THE
OVERALL ROTATION OF THE RADAR ECHOES FROM A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE.
WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVHD DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT NOTHING NEAR THE MAGNITUDE NOR
COVERAGE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPSLOPE FLOW VCNTY OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE.
WITH THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BELIEVE THAT FOG
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN...AND DENSE IN A FEW AREAS. HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THAT WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...MORE CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONTS ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES.
EXPECT BETTER HEATING WITH THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
IN THE PIEDMONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW...IT WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT
TRANSLATES TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.
WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.
COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
LOCAL RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LYH AND DAN MAY GET A
SHOWER WITH HEAVY RAIN BEFORE 09Z. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 14Z/10 AM THIS
MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY...ENDING THE UPSLOPE
FLOW. A SHORT WAVE SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL AGAIN
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 200247
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1047 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS THIS EVENING FELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 77
WHERE UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF
GRAYSON...SMYTH AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES. HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
ROADS CLOSED FROM HIGH WATER FROM SALTVILLE TO RICHLANDS...AND ONE
REPORT OF LARGE HAIL...AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER...IN SALTVILLE.
SINCE SUNSET...RAIN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAS BEEN DECREASING.
UPPER TROUGH IS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVHD. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN THE
OVERALL ROTATION OF THE RADAR ECHOES FROM A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE.
WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVHD DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT NOTHING NEAR THE MAGNITUDE NOR
COVERAGE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPSLOPE FLOW VCNTY OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE.
WITH THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BELIEVE THAT FOG
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN...AND DENSE IN A FEW AREAS. HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THAT WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...MORE CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONTS ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES.
EXPECT BETTER HEATING WITH THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
IN THE PIEDMONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW...IT WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT
TRANSLATES TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.
WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.
COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING. IN SPITE OF THE DECREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ANTICIPATE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT BEGINS.
EVEN WITH IMPROVEMENT MONDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE POOR.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER MONDAY. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR DECENT FLYING
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 200013
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
813 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR INDICATING A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CELL MOVEMENT ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE HAS BEEN
SLOW DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT NEAR THE BASE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA
CLOSELY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN. FURTHER
EAST...STEERING WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER...CAUSING CELLS TO
MOVE MORE QUICKLY.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON THAT THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE
PIEDMONTS DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
EAST. INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS...AND VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...BELIEVE THAT FOG WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN...AND
DENSE IN A FEW AREAS. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THAT WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...MORE CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONTS ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES.
EXPECT BETTER HEATING WITH THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
IN THE PIEDMONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW...IT WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT
TRANSLATES TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.
WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.
COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING. IN SPITE OF THE DECREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ANTICIPATE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT BEGINS.
EVEN WITH IMPROVEMENT MONDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE POOR.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER MONDAY. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR DECENT FLYING
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 191950
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR INDICATING A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CELL MOVEMENT ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE HAS BEEN
SLOW DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT NEAR THE BASE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA
CLOSELY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN. FURTHER
EAST...STEERING WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER...CAUSING CELLS TO
MOVE MORE QUICKLY.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON THAT THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE
PIEDMONTS DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
EAST. INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS...AND VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...BELIEVE THAT FOG WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN...AND
DENSE IN A FEW AREAS. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THAT WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...MORE CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONTS ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES.
EXPECT BETTER HEATING WITH THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
IN THE PIEDMONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW...IT WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT
TRANSLATES TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.
WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.
COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AREAWIDE. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN LESS
WIDESPREAD AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...WHICH HAS LEAD
TO GREATER SURFACE HEATING. THEREFORE...WILL KEEPING AN EYE ON
STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH SHOWERS INTENSIFYING INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THAT STATED... IF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM CONVECTION
OVER TENNESSEE CAN BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT THAT WILL HAVE A
STABILIZING EFFECT AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BUT CIRRUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS IN A HURRY TO ENTER OUR AREA.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
MVFR...POSSIBLY LOW END VFR AT BEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY DUE TO LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN EXTENDED
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES. GREATEST
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH INTENSITY WANING BY
MIDNIGHT AS HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS
STRATUS DECKS BELOW 1KFT.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY...WITH
BETTER COVERAGE IN THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR DECENT
FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/NF
000
FXUS61 KRNK 191823
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
223 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY THIS MORNING AS INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT MORE HEATING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AROUND NOON ACROSS ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS INDICATED BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THAT STATED...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SPOTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING ARE NOT EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN 2 INCHES
ON THE WPC DAY ONE FORECAST.
TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE SO ADDED PATCHY FOG. NO BIG CHANGES FROM
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
MONDAY IS QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT ERASED
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT PUSHED BACK NORTH. SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING
OUT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
IN THE PIEDMONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW...IT WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT
TRANSLATES TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.
WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.
COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AREAWIDE. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN LESS
WIDESPREAD AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...WHICH HAS LEAD
TO GREATER SURFACE HEATING. THEREFORE...WILL KEEPING AN EYE ON
STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH SHOWERS INTENSIFYING INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THAT STATED... IF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM CONVECTION
OVER TENNESSEE CAN BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT THAT WILL HAVE A
STABILIZING EFFECT AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BUT CIRRUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS IN A HURRY TO ENTER OUR AREA.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
MVFR...POSSIBLY LOW END VFR AT BEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY DUE TO LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN EXTENDED
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES. GREATEST
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH INTENSITY WANING BY
MIDNIGHT AS HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS
STRATUS DECKS BELOW 1KFT.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY...WITH
BETTER COVERAGE IN THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR DECENT
FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/NF
000
FXUS61 KRNK 191754
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY THIS MORNING AS INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT MORE HEATING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AROUND NOON ACROSS ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS INDICATED BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THAT STATED...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SPOTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING ARE NOT EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN 2 INCHES
ON THE WPC DAY ONE FORECAST.
TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE SO ADDED PATCHY FOG. NO BIG CHANGES FROM
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
MONDAY IS QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT ERASED
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT PUSHED BACK NORTH. SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING
OUT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
IN THE PIEDMONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW...IT WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT
TRANSLATES TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.
WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.
COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS THIS MORNING FROM IFR/MVFR
TO MVFR/VFR...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT WITH TIMING. PRECIPITATION
HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE. THIS BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAN AND BLF BUT
THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT IN GETTING SOME HEATING DURING THE
DAY. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
BUT STAY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 191456
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1056 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY THIS MORNING AS INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT MORE HEATING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AROUND NOON ACROSS ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS INDICATED BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THAT STATED...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SPOTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING ARE NOT EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN 2 INCHES
ON THE WPC DAY ONE FORECAST.
TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE SO ADDED PATCHY FOG. NO BIG CHANGES FROM
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MONDAY IS QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT ERASED
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT PUSHED BACK NORTH. SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING
OUT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GOOD CHUNK OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES AT H7
ACROSS SE WEST VA LATE DAY...POSSIBLY SHUTTING STORMS DOWN THERE.
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS WILL PROBABLY SHIFT
TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT ON
TUESDAY...SO PERHAPS THIS IS THE DRIEST DAY. SOME WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH...ADDING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ALOFT AND PROVIDING
SOME LIFT FOR MORE STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALREADY BRINING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM
THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS
FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THIS
SCENARIO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS THIS MORNING FROM IFR/MVFR
TO MVFR/VFR...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT WITH TIMING. PRECIPITATION
HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE. THIS BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAN AND BLF BUT
THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT IN GETTING SOME HEATING DURING THE
DAY. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
BUT STAY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 191150
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED TWO SHORT WAVES...ONE OVER KENTUCKY AND
THE OTHER IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE FEATURE IN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT REACHING THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFT. MODELS SHOWED GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT AROUND 300K AND DECENT UPSLOPES SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCE OF THUNDER BACK TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND FAR EAST COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND EVEN IN THESE AREAS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE SO ADDED PATCHY FOG. NO BID CHANGES FROM
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SPOTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING ARE NOT EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN 2 INCHES
ON THE WPC DAY ONE FORECAST. HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SMYTH...GRAYSON AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LATER
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY FLOODING THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MONDAY IS QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT ERASED
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT PUSHED BACK NORTH. SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING
OUT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GOOD CHUNK OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES AT H7
ACROSS SE WEST VA LATE DAY...POSSIBLY SHUTTING STORMS DOWN THERE.
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS WILL PROBABLY SHIFT
TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT ON
TUESDAY...SO PERHAPS THIS IS THE DRIEST DAY. SOME WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH...ADDING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ALOFT AND PROVIDING
SOME LIFT FOR MORE STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALREADY BRINING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM
THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS
FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THIS
SCENARIO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS THIS MORNING FROM IFR/MVFR
TO MVFR/VFR...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT WITH TIMING. PRECIPITATION
HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE. THIS BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAN AND BLF BUT
THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT IN GETTING SOME HEATING DURING THE
DAY. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
BUT STAY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 190847
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
447 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED TWO SHORT WAVES...ONE OVER KENTUCKY AND
THE OTHER IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE FEATURE IN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT REACHING THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFT. MODELS SHOWED GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT AROUND 300K AND DECENT UPSLOPES SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCE OF THUNDER BACK TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND FAR EAST COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND EVEN IN THESE AREAS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE SO ADDED PATCHY FOG. NO BID CHANGES FROM
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SPOTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING ARE NOT EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN 2 INCHES
ON THE WPC DAY ONE FORECAST. HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SMYTH...GRAYSON AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LATER
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY FLOODING THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MONDAY IS QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT ERASED
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT PUSHED BACK NORTH. SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING
OUT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GOOD CHUNK OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES AT H7
ACROSS SE WEST VA LATE DAY...POSSIBLY SHUTTING STORMS DOWN THERE.
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS WILL PROBABLY SHIFT
TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT ON
TUESDAY...SO PERHAPS THIS IS THE DRIEST DAY. SOME WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH...ADDING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ALOFT AND PROVIDING
SOME LIFT FOR MORE STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALREADY BRINING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM
THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS
FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THIS
SCENARIO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING AT ROA/LYH/DAN/BCB.
CEILINGS AT BLF AND LWB WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAFS SITES THROUGH 12Z/8AM.
CHALLENGING TO PICK A WINDOW WITH NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON DRY.
AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAN AND BLF BUT
THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT IN GETTING SOME HEATING DURING THE
DAY. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
BUT STAY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 190603
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
203 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ACTING AS LOW LEVEL SUPPORT TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COVERS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. SO FAR NOT MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
IT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE NC PIEDMONT. HEAVIEST RAIN ACTIVITY IS
MOVING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC FROM
DANVILLE SOUTHEAST TO RALEIGH NC. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SKIRT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAIN VCNTY OF YANCEYVILLE AND SOUTH BOSTON. ENHANCED
RAINFALL...MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR RIGHT
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL EXIST DUE TO
THE SHALLOW EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL
CENTERED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...SO THREAT OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EVEN WEST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. CONVERGENT FLOW FROM THE
WESTERLIES INTERSECTING THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES STILL POINTS
TOWARD POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN FOR THE NC MTNS. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA INTACT
FOR NOW ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS THE LAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. OUR LOCAL WRF SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK
IN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER THE NC MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE OVERALL LIGHT RAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
INGREDIENTS REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A WEAK
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS AS
INDICATED BY LIGHT EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS MAY LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS THAT WILL BE MORE PULSE VARIETY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED TODAY. REGARDLESS...THESE RAIN MAKERS MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.
SCATTERED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING
FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ALOFT. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE AREA WILL STILL BE INVOLVED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT PLACES THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
OVER...OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN
A TREND WHERE WE WILL EXPERIENCE LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A GREATER AMOUNT OVER THE
EAST. MODEL TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT IT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A DAY OF
TRANSITION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST...AND OUR
FOCUS TURNING TO ONE THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THE TWO...VERY BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SO THAT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION FROM BECOMING TOO
DEEP.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND MILDER. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A MIX OF 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE AREA ONLY LOOKS TO GET A BRIEF BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT GENEROUS
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. IT WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE PARTING CLOSED LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY GIVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION...AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALREADY BRINING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM
GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. HAVE FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THIS SCENARIO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING AT ROA/LYH/DAN/BCB.
CEILINGS AT BLF AND LWB WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAFS SITES THROUGH 12Z/8AM.
CHALLENGING TO PICK A WINDOW WITH NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON DRY.
AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAN AND BLF BUT
THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT IN GETTING SOME HEATING DURING THE
DAY. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
BUT STAY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 190201
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1001 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ACTING AS LOW LEVEL SUPPORT TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COVERS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. SO FAR NOT MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
IT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE NC PIEDMONT. HEAVIEST RAIN ACTIVITY IS
MOVING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC FROM
DANVILLE SOUTHEAST TO RALEIGH NC. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SKIRT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAIN VCNTY OF YANCYVILLE AND SOUTH BOSTON. ENHANCED
RAINFALL...MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR RIGHT
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL EXIST DUE TO
THE SHALLOW EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL
CENTERED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...SO THREAT OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EVEN WEST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. CONVERGENT FLOW FROM THE
WESTERLIES INTERSECTING THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES STILL POINTS
TOWARD POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN FOR THE NC MTNS. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA INTACT
FOR NOW ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS THE LAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. OUR LOCAL WRF SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK
IN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER THE NC MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE OVERALL LIGHT RAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
INGREDIENTS REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A WEAK
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS AS
INDICATED BY LIGHT EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS MAY LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS THAT WILL BE MORE PULSE VARIETY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED TODAY. REGARDLESS...THESE RAIN MAKERS MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.
SCATTERED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING
FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ALOFT. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE AREA WILL STILL BE INVOLVED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT PLACES THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
OVER...OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN
A TREND WHERE WE WILL EXPERIENCE LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A GREATER AMOUNT OVER THE
EAST. MODEL TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT IT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A DAY OF
TRANSITION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST...AND OUR
FOCUS TURNING TO ONE THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THE TWO...VERY BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SO THAT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION FROM BECOMING TOO
DEEP.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND MILDER. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A MIX OF 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE AREA ONLY LOOKS TO GET A BRIEF BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT GENEROUS
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. IT WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE PARTING CLOSED LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY GIVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION...AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALREADY BRINING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM
GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. HAVE FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THIS SCENARIO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL ALSO RESTRICT VSBYS
TO 1-3SM AT TIMES. CAN`T RUL OUT A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT VCNTY OF KDAN. MODELS INDICATE CHANCE
THAT RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT. RADAR HAS NOT SUPPORTED THESE TRENDS...SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THINK THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. EITHER WAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS STILL POOR...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 182349
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
749 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ACTING AS LOW LEVEL SUPPORT TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT WHILE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR THE MOST PART. FORECAST MODELS HAVE
ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEREFORE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE FLOODING
THREAT DISCUSSED EARLIER TODAY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD
WATCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT THIS TIME. THAT STATED...DO NOT
THINK WE ARE ALTOGETHER OUT OF THE WOODS...SO WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT MONITOR RADAR AND REASSESS THE SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING.
DESPITE THE OVERALL LIGHT RAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
INGREDIENT REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TO PASS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A WEAK WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS AS INDICATED BY
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS MAY LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS THAT WILL
BE MORE PULSE VARIETY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY.
REGARDLESS...THESE RAIN MAKERS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.
SCATTERED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING
FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ALOFT. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE AREA WILL STILL BE INVOLVED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT PLACES THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
OVER...OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN
A TREND WHERE WE WILL EXPERIENCE LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A GREATER AMOUNT OVER THE
EAST. MODEL TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT IT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A DAY OF
TRANSITION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST...AND OUR
FOCUS TURNING TO ONE THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THE TWO...VERY BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SO THAT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION FROM BECOMING TOO
DEEP.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND MILDER. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A MIX OF 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE AREA ONLY LOOKS TO GET A BRIEF BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT GENEROUS
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. IT WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE PARTING CLOSED LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY GIVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION...AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALREADY BRINING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM
GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. HAVE FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THIS SCENARIO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL ALSO RESTRICT VSBYS
TO 1-3SM AT TIMES. CAN`T RUL OUT A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT VCNTY OF KDAN. MODELS INDICATE CHANCE
THAT RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT. RADAR HAS NOT SUPPORTED THESE TRENDS...SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THINK THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. EITHER WAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS STILL POOR...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 182009
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ACTING AS LOW LEVEL SUPPORT TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT WHILE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR THE MOST PART. FORECAST MODELS HAVE
ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEREFORE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE FLOODING
THREAT DISCUSSED EARLIER TODAY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD
WATCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT THIS TIME. THAT STATED...DO NOT
THINK WE ARE ALTOGETHER OUT OF THE WOODS...SO WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT MONITOR RADAR AND REASSESS THE SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING.
DESPITE THE OVERALL LIGHT RAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
INGREDIENT REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TO PASS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A WEAK WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS AS INDICATED BY
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS MAY LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS THAT WILL
BE MORE PULSE VARIETY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY.
REGARDLESS...THESE RAIN MAKERS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.
SCATTERED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING
FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ALOFT. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE AREA WILL STILL BE INVOLVED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT PLACES THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
OVER...OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN
A TREND WHERE WE WILL EXPERIENCE LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A GREATER AMOUNT OVER THE
EAST. MODEL TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT IT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A DAY OF
TRANSITION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST...AND OUR
FOCUS TURNING TO ONE THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THE TWO...VERY BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SO THAT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION FROM BECOMING TOO
DEEP.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND MILDER. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A MIX OF 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE AREA ONLY LOOKS TO GET A BRIEF BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT GENEROUS
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. IT WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE PARTING CLOSED LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY GIVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION...AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALREADY BRINING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM
GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. HAVE FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THIS SCENARIO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP/LOWER THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS MAINTAINS A WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FOG
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INTERMITTENT IFR VISIBILITIES...WHICH
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 181522
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1122 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTH
OUT OF THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. ONE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE MONITORING THIS ROUND OF RAIN FOR
ANY POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OR TRAINING...BUT SO FAR THERE
HAVE BEEN NO PROBLEMS REPORTED. CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH HAS KEPT A LID ON
INSTABILITY...BUT WILL STILL BE LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES.
STILL MAINTAINING EARLIER CONCERNS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORKWEEK...AS ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASS ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY
OBSERVING A STALLED FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE EAST...BUT WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SURFACE ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS LOW LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL AS UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRANSFORM INTO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL REACH
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH BETWEEN 00Z/8PM TONIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND AM STILL DEBATING THE
NEED AND THE LOCATION FOR A FLOOD WATCH FURTHER TO THE EAST.
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARM UP TODAY IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER. USE BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE AND
LATEST GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. DEW POINTS INTO THE
LOWER 60S WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE THAT CAUSED SO MUCH TROUBLE ACROSS TEXAS ARRIVES IN A
WEAKENED FORM ON SUNDAY...SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSIDERING THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND ALSO NW NC FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS WHICH ELEVATED PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS
THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME WATER PROBLEMS DEVELOP...AS UPSLOPE FLOW...NEARBY BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY AND ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAVE LED TO ISSUES IN THE PAST.
WEAK MBE VELOCITIES SUGGEST SLOW MOVERS AND/OR BACKBUILDERS. WITH
THE WAVE MOVING EAST WITH SOME SINKING MOTION/SOME DRIER AIR AT
H7...EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY. RELATIVE POP MINIMUM FOR EXTREME WESTERN VA AND SE WEST
VA. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING THANKS TO A DIGGING MIDWEST
TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROCESS OF DECREASING COVER THAT BEGAN ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING OUT OF
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ITS PATH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS EQUATES TO SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO BE COOLER AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
PATCHES OF IFR FOG AND IFR CEILINGS...MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.
A SHORT WAVE CROSSING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 181149
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
749 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTH
OUT OF THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SEVERAL FACTORS INDICATE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS STILL
ABOVE 2.00 INCHES PER 3 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS FROM
CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY INTO EASTERN APPOMATTOX AND SOUTHERN
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY HAD MORE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THREE HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER AMHERST...APPOMATTOX AND
BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA AND A
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SUMMERS AND GREENBRIER COUNTY WEST
VIRGINIA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
THIS MORNING.
A SURFACE FRONT WAS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. BOUNDARY
SHOWED UP BEST IN THE LIFTED INDEX AND DEW POINT ANALYSIS.SURFACE
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST...BUT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTH. UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.
PLUS SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THE SOUTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA TO GET SOME SUN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY BY THE TIME SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS FORM THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL REACH
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WELL
ABOVE...NORMAL. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS IS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH BETWEEN 00Z/8PM TONIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
SUNDAY. SO IN MOUNTAINS AREAS THAT HAD HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
FRIDAY HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARM UP TODAY IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. USE BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE AND LATEST
GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER
60S WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SHRTWV THAT CAUSED SO MUCH TROUBLE ACROSS TEXAS ARRIVES IN A
WEAKENED FORM ON SUNDAY...SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSIDERING THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND ALSO NW NC FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS WHICH ELEVATED PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS
THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME WATER PROBLEMS DEVELOP...AS UPSLOPE FLOW...NEARBY BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY AND ARRIVING SHRTWV HAVE LED TO ISSUES IN THE PAST. WEAK
MBE VELOCITIES SUGGEST SLOW MOVERS AND/OR BACKBUILDERS. WITH THE
WAVE MOVING EAST WITH SOME SINKING MOTION/SOME DRIER AIR AT
H7...EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY. RELATIVE POP MINIMUM FOR EXTREME WESTERN VA AND SE WEST VA.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING THANKS TO A DIGGING MIDWEST TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROCESS OF DECREASING COVER THAT BEGAN ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING OUT OF
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ITS PATH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS EQUATES TO SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO BE COOLER AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
PATCHES OF IFR FOG AND IFR CEILINGS...MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.
A SHORT WAVE CROSSING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 180927
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
527 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTH
OUT OF THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SEVERAL FACTORS INDICATE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS STILL
ABOVE 2.00 INCHES PER 3 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS FROM
CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY INTO EASTERN APPOMATTOX AND SOUTHERN
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY HAD MORE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THREE HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER AMHERST...APPOMATTOX AND
BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA AND A
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SUMMERS AND GREENBRIER COUNTY WEST
VIRGINIA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
THIS MORNING.
A SURFACE FRONT WAS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. BOUNDARY
SHOWED UP BEST IN THE LIFTED INDEX AND DEW POINT ANALYSIS.SURFACE
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST...BUT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTH. UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.
PLUS SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THE SOUTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA TO GET SOME SUN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY BY THE TIME SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS FORM THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL REACH
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WELL
ABOVE...NORMAL. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS IS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH BETWEEN 00Z/8PM TONIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
SUNDAY. SO IN MOUNTAINS AREAS THAT HAD HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
FRIDAY HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARM UP TODAY IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. USE BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE AND LATEST
GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER
60S WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SHRTWV THAT CAUSED SO MUCH TROUBLE ACROSS TEXAS ARRIVES IN A
WEAKENED FORM ON SUNDAY...SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSIDERING THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND ALSO NW NC FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS WHICH ELEVATED PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS
THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME WATER PROBLEMS DEVELOP...AS UPSLOPE FLOW...NEARBY BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY AND ARRIVING SHRTWV HAVE LED TO ISSUES IN THE PAST. WEAK
MBE VELOCITIES SUGGEST SLOW MOVERS AND/OR BACKBUILDERS. WITH THE
WAVE MOVING EAST WITH SOME SINKING MOTION/SOME DRIER AIR AT
H7...EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY. RELATIVE POP MINIMUM FOR EXTREME WESTERN VA AND SE WEST VA.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING THANKS TO A DIGGING MIDWEST TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROCESS OF DECREASING COVER THAT BEGAN ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING OUT OF
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ITS PATH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS EQUATES TO SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO BE COOLER AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT BCB AND ROA THROUGH 12Z. WEAK EAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW SO FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES. IN
ADDITION...RAIN FROM FRIDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN FOG OVERNIGHT. MOST LIKELY TAF
SITES WHERE LIFR FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z WERE BCB...LWB AND
BLF.
A SHORT WAVE CROSSING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 180606
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
206 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION...ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TO WEDGE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ADVANCE TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE COMING WEEK...WHICH MAY BRING A RETURN
OF COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE FRONT IS GRADUALLY BACKDOORING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND AND
COMING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. ALOFT HOWEVER...WINDS IN BOTH
THE GSO/RNK SOUNDINGS WERE FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THIS WARM MOIST
AIR RIDING UP AND OVER THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWER THREAT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AS THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE...BOTH THE GSO/RNK SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE OF ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MEAN WIND OF ABOUT 10KTS/12MPH. AS SUCH STORM MOVEMENT IS
SLOW...THUS RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF HEAVY RAIN WHERE IT
HAPPENS TO OCCUR...SOME CASES RESULTING IN AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS
THAN AN HOUR.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS ALOFT DIMINISH. EXPECT THAT THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PULSY IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE CLUSTERS OF SEMI-ORGANIZED CELLS WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MERGE. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE HEADING
INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
CLOSER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAINFALL WILL LIMIT
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SO DO NOT FORESEE A LARGE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVE
WE WILL HAVE A FEW AREAS OF LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING WHERE
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS...BUT DO NOT FORESEE THE THREAT TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ITS PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. SOME WILL BE DRIVEN BY
THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM...THOSE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS WELL. THE AXIS OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. WE
EXPECTED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IF NOT A SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON AVERAGE GIVEN ELEVATED DEW POINT VALUES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROCESS OF DECREASING COVER THAT BEGAN ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING OUT OF
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ITS PATH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS EQUATES TO SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO BE COOLER AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT BCB AND ROA THROUGH 12Z. WEAK EAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW SO FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES. IN
ADDITION...RAIN FROM FRIDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN FOG OVERNIGHT. MOST LIKELY TAF
SITES WHERE LIFR FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z WERE BCB...LWB AND
BLF.
A SHORT WAVE CROSSING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 180301
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1101 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION...ALLOWING
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO WEDGE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN ON
SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE COMING WEEK...WHICH MAY
BRING A RETURN OF COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE FRONT IS GRADUALLY BACKDOORING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND AND
COMING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. ALOFT HOWEVER...WINDS IN BOTH
THE GSO/RNK SOUNDINGS WERE FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THIS WARM MOIST
AIR RIDING UP AND OVER THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWER THREAT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AS THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE...BOTH THE GSO/RNK SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE OF ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MEAN WIND OF ABOUT 10KTS/12MPH. AS SUCH STORM MOVEMENT IS
SLOW...THUS RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF HEAVY RAIN WHERE IT
HAPPENS TO OCCUR...SOME CASES RESULTING IN AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS
THAN AN HOUR.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA AND WINDSPEEDS ALOFT DIMINISH. EXPECT THAT THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PULSY IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE CLUSTERS OF SEMI-ORGANIZED CELLS WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MERGE. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE HEADING
INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
CLOSER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAINFALL WILL LIMIT
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SO DO NOT FORESEE A LARGE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVE
WE WILL HAVE A FEW AREAS OF LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING WHERE
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS...BUT DO NOT FORESEE THE THREAT TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ITS PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. SOME WILL BE DRIVEN BY
THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM...THOSE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS WELL. THE AXIS OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. WE
EXPECTED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IF NOT A SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON AVERAGE GIVEN ELEVATED DEW POINT VALUES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROCESS OF DECREASING COVER THAT BEGAN ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING OUT OF
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ITS PATH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS EQUATES TO SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO BE COOLER AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. MODELS
SUGGEST CIGS MAY DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY BY SATURDAY MORNING. ATTM
WILL ADVERTISE MVFR CIGS WITH THINKING THAT ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LIFT CIGS A BIT HIGHER THAN
MODEL FORECAST. AT THE VERY LEAST...MAY BE LOOKING AT OBSCD RIDGE
TOPS FROM THE LOWERING CLOUD BASE.
.AVIATION EXTENDED...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND LCL
IFR. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST
BET FOR DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS THOUGH MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE.
NEXT LAZY FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND
LOOKS TO BRING MVRF CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF
SITES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 171958
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION...ALLOWING
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO WEDGE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN ON
SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE COMING WEEK...WHICH MAY
BRING A RETURN OF COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ONLY A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IN THE MIX. WHERE WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING THUNDERSTORMS
HOWEVER...A FEW HAVE BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE INTENSITY OF ANY NEW STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING NOW THAT WE ARE IN MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING AN EYE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH HAS BEEN SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND IS
GETTING READY TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD TO THE PIEDMONTS AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
AND WINDSPEEDS ALOFT DIMINISH. EXPECT THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN PULSY IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. NOT
THAT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THESE STORMS TO WORK WITH...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
ONE STRONG STORM. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO
THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...BUT COVERAGE WILL OVERALL DIMINISH. WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR ENTERING THE PIEDMONTS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD GOING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAINFALL WILL LIMIT SURFACED
BASED INSTABILITY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SO DO NOT FORESEE A LARGE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVE WE WILL
HAVE A FEW AREAS OF LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING WHERE HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS...BUT DO NOT FORESEE THE THREAT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ITS PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. SOME WILL BE DRIVEN BY
THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM...THOSE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS WELL. THE AXIS OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. WE
EXPECTED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IF NOT A SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON AVERAGE GIVEN ELEVATED DEW POINT VALUES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROCESS OF DECREASING COVER THAT BEGAN ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING OUT OF
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ITS PATH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS EQUATES TO SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO BE COOLER AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...PUSHING A WAVY FRONT INTO THE AREA AND LEAVING IT HERE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOP SHOWED MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF CLEAR SKIES AND HEATING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. BELIEVE
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
MTNS AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SERVING AS A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND
A WEAK 500MB VORT LOBE AND SOME UL JET DYNAMICS AIDING FROM ABOVE.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LONG AND SKINNY CAPE WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SVR BUT INVERTED V SOUNDING INDICATES STORMS SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT PRODUCERS OF GUSTY WINDS.
EXPECTING A TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING FOR BEST SHOT AT CONVECTION
FROM ABOUT 18Z TO ABOUT 02Z. WILL USE VCTS DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ATTEMPT TO CONFINE PREDOMINANT TS TO A MOST FAVORABLE HOUR OR TWO.
WRF MODEL SEEMED TO DO WELL WITH CONVECTION YESTERDAY AND WILL
LEAN ON IT FOR ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION TODAY.
DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE PROBLEMATIC OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVERNIGHT AND BASED ON TREND FROM LWB LAST NIGHT THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE DIRECT PCPN THIS
AFTERNOON.
BELIEVE WAVY NATURE OF FRONT MAY KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT BUT BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL WAIT UNTIL SATURDAY AS
THE BULK OF UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA...THOUGH TIMING
ON THIS WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
.AVIATION EXTENDED...
WEDGIE SITUATION WILL BRING ELY FLOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SITES IN A GOOD
CHANCE OF PCPN...ALONG WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO IMPROVE AS THE HIGH NUDGES EAST AND SHOULD LET THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSH OFF TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE
BEST BET FOR DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS THOUGH MOUNTAINS MAY HELP
FIRE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. NEXT LAZY FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS
FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVRF
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS
| 
