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000
FXUS61 KRNK 301925
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN WV/FAR SW VA MOVING EWD INTO THE
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN OUR FORECAST. THERE IS A
INSTABILITY MINIMUM AT 18Z FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY AS THE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER HERE. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY ON. THE
LATEST HIGH-RES SEEMS OVERDONE ATTM...BUT EMPHASIZE CONVECTION IN
SOUTHSIDE VA BY 19-20Z...MOVING OUT OF THIS AREA AFTER 21Z. WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES OVER THE MTNS AND CENTRAL KY
MOVE INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING AND HALF OF YOU WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY RAIN.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND FADE.
AIRMASS WILL STAY MOIST AND WITH BASE OF TROUGH/VORT SWINGING ACROSS
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA THROUGH MORNING. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 60S.

UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS FOR STORMS
SWINGING FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AND WEST FROM WESTERN KY INTO THE
SMOKYS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SW VA/NW NC MTNS GIVEN THIS.
MARGINAL RISK OF SVR REMAINS AROUND AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA
TOMORROW. WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN
THE PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE WARM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN SCATTERED STORMS...WITH
LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROF...BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT ONE OF THE
STRONGER WAVES MOVES OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY PROVIDING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. OUR AREA ALSO
FALLS UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET IN
NEW ENGLAND.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY MAY KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN...WITH
MODELS SHOWING HIGHEST CAPES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...AS PWATS SOAR TO 1.5 TO 2.0" BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SFC BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTH INTO
NC ON FRIDAY LEAVING US WITH A EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DROPPED HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR
WEST AND FAR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE EASTERN
U.S. UNDER AN UPPER TROF THAT FLATTENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE STRONGER AND
DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
IS MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS....BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS...KEEPING
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNDER INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...LOOK FOR CU THIS AFTERNOON TO TOWER INTO CBS AS WE HEAD
THROUGH 21Z. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH CONSENSUS ON WHERE
CONVECTION WILL FIRE AND MOVE IN. SO...WILL KEEP VCTS IN OVER MOST
TAF SITES IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT
SHOULD SEE STORMS IN THE BLF AREA BETWEEN 20-23Z...SO ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP HERE. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH NORTHEAST. MODELS SEEM TO
PINPOINT SOUTHSIDE VA NEAR DAN EARLY...THEN MOVE THE EMPHASIS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 20Z.

ANY SHOWERS OR TSRA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SVR GUSTS PER LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK. AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND SIGMETS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. WE WILL SEE
SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS WORK INTO THE MTNS AFTER 06Z...SO KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TRIED TO TOUCH ON MORE FOG AT LWB/DAN/BCB.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH WED MORNING WE SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST. BEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LIE FROM BLF-BCB AND
SOUTHWEST INTO TN.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301925
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN WV/FAR SW VA MOVING EWD INTO THE
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN OUR FORECAST. THERE IS A
INSTABILITY MINIMUM AT 18Z FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY AS THE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER HERE. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY ON. THE
LATEST HIGH-RES SEEMS OVERDONE ATTM...BUT EMPHASIZE CONVECTION IN
SOUTHSIDE VA BY 19-20Z...MOVING OUT OF THIS AREA AFTER 21Z. WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES OVER THE MTNS AND CENTRAL KY
MOVE INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING AND HALF OF YOU WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY RAIN.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND FADE.
AIRMASS WILL STAY MOIST AND WITH BASE OF TROUGH/VORT SWINGING ACROSS
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA THROUGH MORNING. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 60S.

UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS FOR STORMS
SWINGING FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AND WEST FROM WESTERN KY INTO THE
SMOKYS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SW VA/NW NC MTNS GIVEN THIS.
MARGINAL RISK OF SVR REMAINS AROUND AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA
TOMORROW. WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN
THE PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE WARM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN SCATTERED STORMS...WITH
LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROF...BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT ONE OF THE
STRONGER WAVES MOVES OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY PROVIDING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. OUR AREA ALSO
FALLS UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET IN
NEW ENGLAND.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY MAY KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN...WITH
MODELS SHOWING HIGHEST CAPES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...AS PWATS SOAR TO 1.5 TO 2.0" BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SFC BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTH INTO
NC ON FRIDAY LEAVING US WITH A EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DROPPED HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR
WEST AND FAR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE EASTERN
U.S. UNDER AN UPPER TROF THAT FLATTENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE STRONGER AND
DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
IS MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS....BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS...KEEPING
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNDER INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...LOOK FOR CU THIS AFTERNOON TO TOWER INTO CBS AS WE HEAD
THROUGH 21Z. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH CONSENSUS ON WHERE
CONVECTION WILL FIRE AND MOVE IN. SO...WILL KEEP VCTS IN OVER MOST
TAF SITES IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT
SHOULD SEE STORMS IN THE BLF AREA BETWEEN 20-23Z...SO ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP HERE. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH NORTHEAST. MODELS SEEM TO
PINPOINT SOUTHSIDE VA NEAR DAN EARLY...THEN MOVE THE EMPHASIS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 20Z.

ANY SHOWERS OR TSRA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SVR GUSTS PER LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK. AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND SIGMETS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. WE WILL SEE
SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS WORK INTO THE MTNS AFTER 06Z...SO KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TRIED TO TOUCH ON MORE FOG AT LWB/DAN/BCB.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH WED MORNING WE SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST. BEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LIE FROM BLF-BCB AND
SOUTHWEST INTO TN.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301828
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
228 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF
LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FORECAST UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377 FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 PM. SVR THREAT INCREASES AS MLCAPES
INCREASE OVER 1500 J/KG. NOT GOING TO SEE SVR EVERYWHERE BUT THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LOWER THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY ON BUT
THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE STILL FIRING UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER BATCH RIDING IN FROM ERN KY
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHER THETA-E AND
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE PIEDMONT...WITH SECONDARY RIDGE OVER MID
TN/WESTERN KY. OUR FORECAST AREA SEEMS TO BE IN A LULL.
HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WEST AND SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON CAPES THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE SUBTLE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IN PLACE FROM INDIANA TO
TN AND OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AS OF 16Z. THESE SHOULD HELP DEVELOP
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS ON TRACK TO REACH UPPER 80S
OUT EAST TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME
THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING
AND IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNDER INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...LOOK FOR CU THIS AFTERNOON TO TOWER INTO CBS AS WE HEAD
THROUGH 21Z. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH CONSENSUS ON WHERE
CONVECTION WILL FIRE AND MOVE IN. SO...WILL KEEP VCTS IN OVER MOST
TAF SITES IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT
SHOULD SEE STORMS IN THE BLF AREA BETWEEN 20-23Z...SO ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP HERE. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH NORTHEAST. MODELS SEEM TO
PINPOINT SOUTHSIDE VA NEAR DAN EARLY...THEN MOVE THE EMPHASIS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 20Z.

ANY SHOWERS OR TSRA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SVR GUSTS PER LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK. AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND SIGMETS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. WE WILL SEE
SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS WORK INTO THE MTNS AFTER 06Z...SO KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TRIED TO TOUCH ON MORE FOG AT LWB/DAN/BCB.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH WED MORNING WE SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST. BEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LIE FROM BLF-BCB AND
SOUTHWEST INTO TN.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301828
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
228 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF
LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FORECAST UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377 FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 PM. SVR THREAT INCREASES AS MLCAPES
INCREASE OVER 1500 J/KG. NOT GOING TO SEE SVR EVERYWHERE BUT THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LOWER THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY ON BUT
THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE STILL FIRING UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER BATCH RIDING IN FROM ERN KY
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHER THETA-E AND
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE PIEDMONT...WITH SECONDARY RIDGE OVER MID
TN/WESTERN KY. OUR FORECAST AREA SEEMS TO BE IN A LULL.
HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WEST AND SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON CAPES THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE SUBTLE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IN PLACE FROM INDIANA TO
TN AND OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AS OF 16Z. THESE SHOULD HELP DEVELOP
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS ON TRACK TO REACH UPPER 80S
OUT EAST TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME
THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING
AND IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNDER INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...LOOK FOR CU THIS AFTERNOON TO TOWER INTO CBS AS WE HEAD
THROUGH 21Z. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH CONSENSUS ON WHERE
CONVECTION WILL FIRE AND MOVE IN. SO...WILL KEEP VCTS IN OVER MOST
TAF SITES IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT
SHOULD SEE STORMS IN THE BLF AREA BETWEEN 20-23Z...SO ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP HERE. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH NORTHEAST. MODELS SEEM TO
PINPOINT SOUTHSIDE VA NEAR DAN EARLY...THEN MOVE THE EMPHASIS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 20Z.

ANY SHOWERS OR TSRA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SVR GUSTS PER LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK. AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND SIGMETS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. WE WILL SEE
SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS WORK INTO THE MTNS AFTER 06Z...SO KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TRIED TO TOUCH ON MORE FOG AT LWB/DAN/BCB.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH WED MORNING WE SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST. BEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LIE FROM BLF-BCB AND
SOUTHWEST INTO TN.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301729
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF
LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1213 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LOWER THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY ON BUT
THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE STILL FIRING UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER BATCH RIDING IN FROM ERN KY
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHER THETA-E AND
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE PIEDMONT...WITH SECONDARY RIDGE OVER MID
TN/WESTERN KY. OUR FORECAST AREA SEEMS TO BE IN A LULL.
HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WEST AND SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON CAPES THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE SUBTLE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IN PLACE FROM INDIANA TO
TN AND OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AS OF 16Z. THESE SHOULD HELP DEVELOP
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS ON TRACK TO REACH UPPER 80S
OUT EAST TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME
THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING
AND IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNDER INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...LOOK FOR CU THIS AFTERNOON TO TOWER INTO CBS AS WE HEAD
THROUGH 21Z. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH CONSENSUS ON WHERE
CONVECTION WILL FIRE AND MOVE IN. SO...WILL KEEP VCTS IN OVER MOST
TAF SITES IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT
SHOULD SEE STORMS IN THE BLF AREA BETWEEN 20-23Z...SO ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP HERE. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH NORTHEAST. MODELS SEEM TO
PINPOINT SOUTHSIDE VA NEAR DAN EARLY...THEN MOVE THE EMPHASIS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 20Z.

ANY SHOWERS OR TSRA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SVR GUSTS PER LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK. AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND SIGMETS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. WE WILL SEE
SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS WORK INTO THE MTNS AFTER 06Z...SO KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TRIED TO TOUCH ON MORE FOG AT LWB/DAN/BCB.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH WED MORNING WE SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST. BEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LIE FROM BLF-BCB AND
SOUTHWEST INTO TN.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301729
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF
LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1213 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LOWER THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY ON BUT
THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE STILL FIRING UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER BATCH RIDING IN FROM ERN KY
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHER THETA-E AND
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE PIEDMONT...WITH SECONDARY RIDGE OVER MID
TN/WESTERN KY. OUR FORECAST AREA SEEMS TO BE IN A LULL.
HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WEST AND SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON CAPES THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE SUBTLE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IN PLACE FROM INDIANA TO
TN AND OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AS OF 16Z. THESE SHOULD HELP DEVELOP
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS ON TRACK TO REACH UPPER 80S
OUT EAST TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME
THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING
AND IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNDER INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...LOOK FOR CU THIS AFTERNOON TO TOWER INTO CBS AS WE HEAD
THROUGH 21Z. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH CONSENSUS ON WHERE
CONVECTION WILL FIRE AND MOVE IN. SO...WILL KEEP VCTS IN OVER MOST
TAF SITES IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT
SHOULD SEE STORMS IN THE BLF AREA BETWEEN 20-23Z...SO ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP HERE. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH NORTHEAST. MODELS SEEM TO
PINPOINT SOUTHSIDE VA NEAR DAN EARLY...THEN MOVE THE EMPHASIS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 20Z.

ANY SHOWERS OR TSRA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SVR GUSTS PER LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK. AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND SIGMETS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. WE WILL SEE
SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS WORK INTO THE MTNS AFTER 06Z...SO KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TRIED TO TOUCH ON MORE FOG AT LWB/DAN/BCB.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH WED MORNING WE SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST. BEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LIE FROM BLF-BCB AND
SOUTHWEST INTO TN.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301729
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF
LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1213 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LOWER THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY ON BUT
THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE STILL FIRING UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER BATCH RIDING IN FROM ERN KY
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHER THETA-E AND
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE PIEDMONT...WITH SECONDARY RIDGE OVER MID
TN/WESTERN KY. OUR FORECAST AREA SEEMS TO BE IN A LULL.
HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WEST AND SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON CAPES THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE SUBTLE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IN PLACE FROM INDIANA TO
TN AND OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AS OF 16Z. THESE SHOULD HELP DEVELOP
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS ON TRACK TO REACH UPPER 80S
OUT EAST TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME
THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING
AND IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNDER INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...LOOK FOR CU THIS AFTERNOON TO TOWER INTO CBS AS WE HEAD
THROUGH 21Z. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH CONSENSUS ON WHERE
CONVECTION WILL FIRE AND MOVE IN. SO...WILL KEEP VCTS IN OVER MOST
TAF SITES IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT
SHOULD SEE STORMS IN THE BLF AREA BETWEEN 20-23Z...SO ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP HERE. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH NORTHEAST. MODELS SEEM TO
PINPOINT SOUTHSIDE VA NEAR DAN EARLY...THEN MOVE THE EMPHASIS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 20Z.

ANY SHOWERS OR TSRA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SVR GUSTS PER LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK. AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND SIGMETS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. WE WILL SEE
SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS WORK INTO THE MTNS AFTER 06Z...SO KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TRIED TO TOUCH ON MORE FOG AT LWB/DAN/BCB.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH WED MORNING WE SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST. BEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LIE FROM BLF-BCB AND
SOUTHWEST INTO TN.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301623
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1223 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF
LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1213 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LOWER THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY ON BUT
THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE STILL FIRING UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER BATCH RIDING IN FROM ERN KY
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHER THETA-E AND
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE PIEDMONT...WITH SECONDARY RIDGE OVER MID
TN/WESTERN KY. OUR FORECAST AREA SEEMS TO BE IN A LULL.
HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WEST AND SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON CAPES THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE SUBTLE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IN PLACE FROM INDIANA TO
TN AND OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AS OF 16Z. THESE SHOULD HELP DEVELOP
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS ON TRACK TO REACH UPPER 80S
OUT EAST TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME
THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING
AND IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST WITH NO IMPACT ON AREA
AIRPORTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS AT KLWB AND KBLF
WILL LIFT TO VFR BY NOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE AND WHEN THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE SO HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE TAFS
AFTER 20Z/4PM.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER
SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN BY 03Z/11PM BASED ON NSSL
AND LOCAL WRF MODELS. MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACH KLWB
AND KBLF. HAVE ADDED MVFR CEILINGS IN THOSE TAFS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301623
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1223 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF
LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1213 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LOWER THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY ON BUT
THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE STILL FIRING UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER BATCH RIDING IN FROM ERN KY
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHER THETA-E AND
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE PIEDMONT...WITH SECONDARY RIDGE OVER MID
TN/WESTERN KY. OUR FORECAST AREA SEEMS TO BE IN A LULL.
HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WEST AND SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON CAPES THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE SUBTLE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IN PLACE FROM INDIANA TO
TN AND OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AS OF 16Z. THESE SHOULD HELP DEVELOP
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS ON TRACK TO REACH UPPER 80S
OUT EAST TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME
THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING
AND IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST WITH NO IMPACT ON AREA
AIRPORTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS AT KLWB AND KBLF
WILL LIFT TO VFR BY NOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE AND WHEN THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE SO HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE TAFS
AFTER 20Z/4PM.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER
SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN BY 03Z/11PM BASED ON NSSL
AND LOCAL WRF MODELS. MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACH KLWB
AND KBLF. HAVE ADDED MVFR CEILINGS IN THOSE TAFS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301145
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY  THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
8AM BUT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.

CHALLENGING TO FINE TUNE WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT RANGE
MODELS...INCLUDED THE LOCAL WRF...SREF AND NSSL WRF SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT THERE MAY BE REDEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW
GENERATED BY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TENNESSEE. ONCE
THESE STORMS DEVELOP...STORM MOTION MAY TAKE THEM INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT BASED ON THESE MODEL
TRENDS.

CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF HEATING TODAY.
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND STRONG ENOUGH MID
LEVEL WINDS FOR DECENT SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THAT LEE-TROUGH STORMS
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF BEING SEVERE.

STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV/ECMWF FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
WEST TODAY. LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST WITH NO IMPACT ON AREA
AIRPORTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS AT KLWB AND KBLF
WILL LIFT TO VFR BY NOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE AND WHEN THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE SO HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE TAFS
AFTER 20Z/4PM.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER
SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN BY 03Z/11PM BASED ON NSSL
AND LOCAL WRF MODELS. MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACH KLWB
AND KBLF. HAVE ADDED MVFR CEILINGS IN THOSE TAFS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301145
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY  THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
8AM BUT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.

CHALLENGING TO FINE TUNE WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT RANGE
MODELS...INCLUDED THE LOCAL WRF...SREF AND NSSL WRF SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT THERE MAY BE REDEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW
GENERATED BY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TENNESSEE. ONCE
THESE STORMS DEVELOP...STORM MOTION MAY TAKE THEM INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT BASED ON THESE MODEL
TRENDS.

CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF HEATING TODAY.
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND STRONG ENOUGH MID
LEVEL WINDS FOR DECENT SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THAT LEE-TROUGH STORMS
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF BEING SEVERE.

STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV/ECMWF FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
WEST TODAY. LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST WITH NO IMPACT ON AREA
AIRPORTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS AT KLWB AND KBLF
WILL LIFT TO VFR BY NOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE AND WHEN THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE SO HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE TAFS
AFTER 20Z/4PM.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER
SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN BY 03Z/11PM BASED ON NSSL
AND LOCAL WRF MODELS. MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACH KLWB
AND KBLF. HAVE ADDED MVFR CEILINGS IN THOSE TAFS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301145
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY  THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
8AM BUT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.

CHALLENGING TO FINE TUNE WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT RANGE
MODELS...INCLUDED THE LOCAL WRF...SREF AND NSSL WRF SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT THERE MAY BE REDEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW
GENERATED BY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TENNESSEE. ONCE
THESE STORMS DEVELOP...STORM MOTION MAY TAKE THEM INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT BASED ON THESE MODEL
TRENDS.

CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF HEATING TODAY.
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND STRONG ENOUGH MID
LEVEL WINDS FOR DECENT SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THAT LEE-TROUGH STORMS
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF BEING SEVERE.

STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV/ECMWF FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
WEST TODAY. LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST WITH NO IMPACT ON AREA
AIRPORTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS AT KLWB AND KBLF
WILL LIFT TO VFR BY NOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE AND WHEN THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE SO HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE TAFS
AFTER 20Z/4PM.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER
SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN BY 03Z/11PM BASED ON NSSL
AND LOCAL WRF MODELS. MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACH KLWB
AND KBLF. HAVE ADDED MVFR CEILINGS IN THOSE TAFS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301145
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY  THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
8AM BUT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.

CHALLENGING TO FINE TUNE WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT RANGE
MODELS...INCLUDED THE LOCAL WRF...SREF AND NSSL WRF SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT THERE MAY BE REDEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW
GENERATED BY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TENNESSEE. ONCE
THESE STORMS DEVELOP...STORM MOTION MAY TAKE THEM INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT BASED ON THESE MODEL
TRENDS.

CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF HEATING TODAY.
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND STRONG ENOUGH MID
LEVEL WINDS FOR DECENT SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THAT LEE-TROUGH STORMS
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF BEING SEVERE.

STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV/ECMWF FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
WEST TODAY. LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST WITH NO IMPACT ON AREA
AIRPORTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS AT KLWB AND KBLF
WILL LIFT TO VFR BY NOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE AND WHEN THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE SO HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE TAFS
AFTER 20Z/4PM.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER
SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN BY 03Z/11PM BASED ON NSSL
AND LOCAL WRF MODELS. MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACH KLWB
AND KBLF. HAVE ADDED MVFR CEILINGS IN THOSE TAFS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300853
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
453 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY  THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
8AM BUT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.

CHALLENGING TO FINE TUNE WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT RANGE
MODELS...INCLUDED THE LOCAL WRF...SREF AND NSSL WRK SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT THERE MAY BE REDEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW
GENERATED BY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TENNESSEE. ONCE
THESE STORMS DEVELOP...STORM MOTION MAY TAKE THEM INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT BASED ON THESE MODEL
TRENDS.

CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF HEATING TODAY.
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND STRONG ENOUGH MID
LEVEL WINDS FOR DECENT SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THAT LEE-TROUGH STORMS
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF BEING SEVERE.

STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV/ECMWF FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
WEST TODAY. LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EAST BUT HAVE STILL INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KBCB AND KBLF
TAFS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT KLWB SO ONLY HAVE
MVFR FOG IN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR NOW.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH






000
FXUS61 KRNK 300853
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
453 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY  THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
8AM BUT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.

CHALLENGING TO FINE TUNE WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT RANGE
MODELS...INCLUDED THE LOCAL WRF...SREF AND NSSL WRK SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT THERE MAY BE REDEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW
GENERATED BY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TENNESSEE. ONCE
THESE STORMS DEVELOP...STORM MOTION MAY TAKE THEM INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
FORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF BY THE TIME THEY REACH WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT BASED ON THESE MODEL
TRENDS.

CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF HEATING TODAY.
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND STRONG ENOUGH MID
LEVEL WINDS FOR DECENT SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THAT LEE-TROUGH STORMS
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF BEING SEVERE.

STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER MAV/ECMWF FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
WEST TODAY. LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN ALL AREA FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ALLOWED FOR LIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH WEAKENING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATED A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I77 IN OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRUSHING
OUR WEST. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
DIFFERENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE SURGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE WEST. THE SWODY3 PLACED A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ELECTED TO RAISED QPF FOR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY THAT IS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EAST BUT HAVE STILL INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KBCB AND KBLF
TAFS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT KLWB SO ONLY HAVE
MVFR FOG IN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR NOW.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300558
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...

BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AXIS THAT HAS PROPAGATED
EAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER RETURN THETA-E. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWING MOST REMAINING CAPE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WITH THE LATEST
00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP ABOVE SOME SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER WEAK RETURN FLOW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PASSING
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST
THAN MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS DESPITE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL
EDGE LOW POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ESPCLY OVER THE SW WHERE MORE IN
LINE WITH AN UPSTREAM AXIS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HEADING SE INTO NE TN
ATTM. OTRW PLAN TO KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR IN CUTTING MOISTURE OFF UPON HEADING EAST OF THE
SLOPES. ALSO BEEFING UP CLOUD COVER ESPCLY GIVEN THE LARGE SWATH OF
DEBRIS CANOPY SEEN OFF IR PICS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ACT TO HOLD
LOW TEMPS UP SOME AS WELL AS KEEPING FOG LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.

ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...

5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.

SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EAST BUT HAVE STILL INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KBCB AND KBLF
TAFS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT KLWB SO ONLY HAVE
MVFR FOG IN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR NOW.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BLACKSBURG AWOS (KBCB) WERE NOT
AVAILABLEDUE TO A COMMERCIAL POWER OUTAGE AT THE AIRPORT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300558
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...

BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AXIS THAT HAS PROPAGATED
EAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER RETURN THETA-E. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWING MOST REMAINING CAPE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WITH THE LATEST
00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP ABOVE SOME SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER WEAK RETURN FLOW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PASSING
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST
THAN MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS DESPITE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL
EDGE LOW POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ESPCLY OVER THE SW WHERE MORE IN
LINE WITH AN UPSTREAM AXIS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HEADING SE INTO NE TN
ATTM. OTRW PLAN TO KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR IN CUTTING MOISTURE OFF UPON HEADING EAST OF THE
SLOPES. ALSO BEEFING UP CLOUD COVER ESPCLY GIVEN THE LARGE SWATH OF
DEBRIS CANOPY SEEN OFF IR PICS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ACT TO HOLD
LOW TEMPS UP SOME AS WELL AS KEEPING FOG LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.

ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...

5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.

SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EAST BUT HAVE STILL INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KBCB AND KBLF
TAFS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT KLWB SO ONLY HAVE
MVFR FOG IN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR NOW.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BLACKSBURG AWOS (KBCB) WERE NOT
AVAILABLEDUE TO A COMMERCIAL POWER OUTAGE AT THE AIRPORT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300558
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...

BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AXIS THAT HAS PROPAGATED
EAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER RETURN THETA-E. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWING MOST REMAINING CAPE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WITH THE LATEST
00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP ABOVE SOME SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER WEAK RETURN FLOW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PASSING
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST
THAN MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS DESPITE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL
EDGE LOW POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ESPCLY OVER THE SW WHERE MORE IN
LINE WITH AN UPSTREAM AXIS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HEADING SE INTO NE TN
ATTM. OTRW PLAN TO KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR IN CUTTING MOISTURE OFF UPON HEADING EAST OF THE
SLOPES. ALSO BEEFING UP CLOUD COVER ESPCLY GIVEN THE LARGE SWATH OF
DEBRIS CANOPY SEEN OFF IR PICS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ACT TO HOLD
LOW TEMPS UP SOME AS WELL AS KEEPING FOG LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.

ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...

5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.

SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EAST BUT HAVE STILL INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KBCB AND KBLF
TAFS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT KLWB SO ONLY HAVE
MVFR FOG IN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR NOW.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BLACKSBURG AWOS (KBCB) WERE NOT
AVAILABLEDUE TO A COMMERCIAL POWER OUTAGE AT THE AIRPORT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300558
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...

BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AXIS THAT HAS PROPAGATED
EAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER RETURN THETA-E. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWING MOST REMAINING CAPE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WITH THE LATEST
00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP ABOVE SOME SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER WEAK RETURN FLOW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PASSING
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST
THAN MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS DESPITE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL
EDGE LOW POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ESPCLY OVER THE SW WHERE MORE IN
LINE WITH AN UPSTREAM AXIS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HEADING SE INTO NE TN
ATTM. OTRW PLAN TO KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR IN CUTTING MOISTURE OFF UPON HEADING EAST OF THE
SLOPES. ALSO BEEFING UP CLOUD COVER ESPCLY GIVEN THE LARGE SWATH OF
DEBRIS CANOPY SEEN OFF IR PICS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ACT TO HOLD
LOW TEMPS UP SOME AS WELL AS KEEPING FOG LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.

ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...

5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.

SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EAST BUT HAVE STILL INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KBCB AND KBLF
TAFS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT KLWB SO ONLY HAVE
MVFR FOG IN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR NOW.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BLACKSBURG AWOS (KBCB) WERE NOT
AVAILABLEDUE TO A COMMERCIAL POWER OUTAGE AT THE AIRPORT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300114
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
914 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...

BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AXIS THAT HAS PROPAGATED
EAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER RETURN THETA-E. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWING MOST REMAINING CAPE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WITH THE LATEST
00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP ABOVE SOME SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER WEAK RETURN FLOW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PASSING
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST
THAN MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS DESPITE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL
EDGE LOW POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ESPCLY OVER THE SW WHERE MORE IN
LINE WITH AN UPSTREAM AXIS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HEADING SE INTO NE TN
ATTM. OTRW PLAN TO KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR IN CUTTING MOISTURE OFF UPON HEADING EAST OF THE
SLOPES. ALSO BEEFING UP CLOUD COVER ESPCLY GIVEN THE LARGE SWATH OF
DEBRIS CANOPY SEEN OFF IR PICS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ACT TO HOLD
LOW TEMPS UP SOME AS WELL AS KEEPING FOG LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.

ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...

5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.

SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS OVER THE FAR WEST AS UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST THROUGH TN/KY/WV/OH AS WELL BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. STILL...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE.

HOWEVER DID INCLUDE A VCSH/VCTS MENTION ALONG WITH PREVAILING VFR
IN SHRA PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT PENDING JUST HOW FAR EAST SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAKES IT. ALSO MVFR CIGS COULD FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT IN THE WEST...ALONG WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR FOG.
KLWB MAY DROP EVEN LOWER WITH ITS TYPICALLY FOGGY NEARBY RIVER
VALLEY HAVING AN INFLUENCE BUT APPEARS CLOUDS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
DENSE FOG UNTIL LATE SO ONLY USED A TEMPO FOR LIFR CONDITIONS
THERE TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 14-15Z/10-11AM ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED -SHRA MAY PERSIST AT KBLF/KLWB THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A THIRD POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS INTO AND TROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY
BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300114
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
914 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...

BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AXIS THAT HAS PROPAGATED
EAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER RETURN THETA-E. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWING MOST REMAINING CAPE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WITH THE LATEST
00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP ABOVE SOME SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER WEAK RETURN FLOW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PASSING
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST
THAN MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS DESPITE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL
EDGE LOW POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ESPCLY OVER THE SW WHERE MORE IN
LINE WITH AN UPSTREAM AXIS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HEADING SE INTO NE TN
ATTM. OTRW PLAN TO KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR IN CUTTING MOISTURE OFF UPON HEADING EAST OF THE
SLOPES. ALSO BEEFING UP CLOUD COVER ESPCLY GIVEN THE LARGE SWATH OF
DEBRIS CANOPY SEEN OFF IR PICS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ACT TO HOLD
LOW TEMPS UP SOME AS WELL AS KEEPING FOG LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.

ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...

5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.

SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS OVER THE FAR WEST AS UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST THROUGH TN/KY/WV/OH AS WELL BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. STILL...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE.

HOWEVER DID INCLUDE A VCSH/VCTS MENTION ALONG WITH PREVAILING VFR
IN SHRA PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT PENDING JUST HOW FAR EAST SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAKES IT. ALSO MVFR CIGS COULD FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT IN THE WEST...ALONG WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR FOG.
KLWB MAY DROP EVEN LOWER WITH ITS TYPICALLY FOGGY NEARBY RIVER
VALLEY HAVING AN INFLUENCE BUT APPEARS CLOUDS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
DENSE FOG UNTIL LATE SO ONLY USED A TEMPO FOR LIFR CONDITIONS
THERE TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 14-15Z/10-11AM ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED -SHRA MAY PERSIST AT KBLF/KLWB THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A THIRD POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS INTO AND TROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY
BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292253
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
653 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.

ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...

5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.

SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS OVER THE FAR WEST AS UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST THROUGH TN/KY/WV/OH AS WELL BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. STILL...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE.

HOWEVER DID INCLUDE A VCSH/VCTS MENTION ALONG WITH PREVAILING VFR
IN SHRA PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT PENDING JUST HOW FAR EAST SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAKES IT. ALSO MVFR CIGS COULD FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT IN THE WEST...ALONG WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR FOG.
KLWB MAY DROP EVEN LOWER WITH ITS TYPICALLY FOGGY NEARBY RIVER
VALLEY HAVING AN INFLUENCE BUT APPEARS CLOUDS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
DENSE FOG UNTIL LATE SO ONLY USED A TEMPO FOR LIFR CONDITIONS
THERE TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 14-15Z/10-11AM ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED -SHRA MAY PERSIST AT KBLF/KLWB THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A THIRD POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS INTO AND TROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY
BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291940
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.

ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...

5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.

SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL HEAD NORTHEAST THROUGH TN/KY/WV/OH
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. STILL...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT IN THE WEST...ALONG WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR LIGHT FOG.
KLWB MAY DROP EVEN LOWER WITH ITS TYPICALLY FOGGY NEARBY RIVER
VALLEY HAVING AN INFLUENCE. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 14-15Z/10-11AM ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A THIRD POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS INTO AND TROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY
BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291940
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.

ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...

5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.

SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.

THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL HEAD NORTHEAST THROUGH TN/KY/WV/OH
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. STILL...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT IN THE WEST...ALONG WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR LIGHT FOG.
KLWB MAY DROP EVEN LOWER WITH ITS TYPICALLY FOGGY NEARBY RIVER
VALLEY HAVING AN INFLUENCE. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 14-15Z/10-11AM ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A THIRD POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS INTO AND TROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY
BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291738
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
138 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE...THE FOLLOWING
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL BE FORECAST IN THE WEST BASED UPON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND EXPECTED TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
RECEIVED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH A DEGREE OR TWO ADDED AT A
FEW LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION TRENDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE
FIRST ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
AFTER ROUGHLY 5PM. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR OF THE CONVECTION BEING ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE
FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND MIXING BEGINS...WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW.

MODELS KEEP DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY 00Z/8PM...BETTER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MOISTURE INCREASES TOO AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ILLINOIS LOW GETS CLOSER AND RE-FIRES TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR LEFT OVER
CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY DECREASED POPS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE...HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND PWATS. THETA-E RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE
JUNE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IN SWODY2.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INT THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED
POPS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS
TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST TO GO WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL HEAD NORTHEAST THROUGH TN/KY/WV/OH
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. STILL...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT IN THE WEST...ALONG WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR LIGHT FOG.
KLWB MAY DROP EVEN LOWER WITH ITS TYPICALLY FOGGY NEARBY RIVER
VALLEY HAVING AN INFLUENCE. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 14-15Z/10-11AM ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A THIRD POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS INTO AND TROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY
BEFORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS BROADCASTING AGAIN AT FULL CAPACITY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291700
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE...THE FOLLOWING
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL BE FORECAST IN THE WEST BASED UPON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND EXPECTED TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
RECEIVED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH A DEGREE OR TWO ADDED AT A
FEW LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION TRENDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE
FIRST ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
AFTER ROUGHLY 5PM. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR OF THE CONVECTION BEING ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE
FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND MIXING BEGINS...WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW.

MODELS KEEP DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY 00Z/8PM...BETTER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MOISTURE INCREASES TOO AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ILLINOIS LOW GETS CLOSER AND RE-FIRES TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR LEFT OVER
CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY DECREASED POPS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE...HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND PWATS. THETA-E RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE
JUNE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IN SWODY2.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INT THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED
POPS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS
TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST TO GO WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND
OF COOL AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATER OF THE GREENBRIER
RIVER HAS ADVECTED FOG INTO THE KLWB AIRPORT THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR VISIBILITIES SHORTLY AFTER 13Z/9AM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS BROADCASTING AGAIN AT FULL CAPACITY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291700
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE...THE FOLLOWING
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL BE FORECAST IN THE WEST BASED UPON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND EXPECTED TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
RECEIVED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH A DEGREE OR TWO ADDED AT A
FEW LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION TRENDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE
FIRST ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
AFTER ROUGHLY 5PM. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR OF THE CONVECTION BEING ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE
FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND MIXING BEGINS...WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW.

MODELS KEEP DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY 00Z/8PM...BETTER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MOISTURE INCREASES TOO AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ILLINOIS LOW GETS CLOSER AND RE-FIRES TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR LEFT OVER
CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY DECREASED POPS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE...HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND PWATS. THETA-E RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE
JUNE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IN SWODY2.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INT THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED
POPS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS
TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST TO GO WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND
OF COOL AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATER OF THE GREENBRIER
RIVER HAS ADVECTED FOG INTO THE KLWB AIRPORT THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR VISIBILITIES SHORTLY AFTER 13Z/9AM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS BROADCASTING AGAIN AT FULL CAPACITY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291700
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE...THE FOLLOWING
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL BE FORECAST IN THE WEST BASED UPON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND EXPECTED TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
RECEIVED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH A DEGREE OR TWO ADDED AT A
FEW LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION TRENDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE
FIRST ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
AFTER ROUGHLY 5PM. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR OF THE CONVECTION BEING ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE
FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND MIXING BEGINS...WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW.

MODELS KEEP DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY 00Z/8PM...BETTER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MOISTURE INCREASES TOO AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ILLINOIS LOW GETS CLOSER AND RE-FIRES TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR LEFT OVER
CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY DECREASED POPS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE...HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND PWATS. THETA-E RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE
JUNE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IN SWODY2.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INT THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED
POPS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS
TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST TO GO WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND
OF COOL AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATER OF THE GREENBRIER
RIVER HAS ADVECTED FOG INTO THE KLWB AIRPORT THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR VISIBILITIES SHORTLY AFTER 13Z/9AM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS BROADCASTING AGAIN AT FULL CAPACITY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291700
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE...THE FOLLOWING
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL BE FORECAST IN THE WEST BASED UPON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND EXPECTED TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
RECEIVED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH A DEGREE OR TWO ADDED AT A
FEW LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION TRENDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE
FIRST ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
AFTER ROUGHLY 5PM. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR OF THE CONVECTION BEING ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE
FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND MIXING BEGINS...WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW.

MODELS KEEP DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY 00Z/8PM...BETTER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MOISTURE INCREASES TOO AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ILLINOIS LOW GETS CLOSER AND RE-FIRES TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR LEFT OVER
CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY DECREASED POPS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE...HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND PWATS. THETA-E RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE
JUNE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IN SWODY2.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INT THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED
POPS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS
TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST TO GO WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND
OF COOL AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATER OF THE GREENBRIER
RIVER HAS ADVECTED FOG INTO THE KLWB AIRPORT THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR VISIBILITIES SHORTLY AFTER 13Z/9AM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS BROADCASTING AGAIN AT FULL CAPACITY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291348
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
948 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE
FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND MIXING BEGINS...WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW.

MODELS KEEP DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY 00Z/8PM...BETTER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MOISTURE INCREASES TOO AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ILLINOIS LOW GETS CLOSER AND RE-FIRES TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR LEFT OVER
CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY DECREASED POPS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE...HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND PWATS. THETA-E RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE
JUNE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IN SWODY2.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INT THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED
POPS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS
TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST TO GO WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND
OF COOL AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATER OF THE GREENBRIER
RIVER HAS ADVECTED FOG INTO THE KLWB AIRPORT THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR VISIBILITIES SHORTLY AFTER 13Z/9AM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291348
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
948 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE
FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND MIXING BEGINS...WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW.

MODELS KEEP DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY 00Z/8PM...BETTER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MOISTURE INCREASES TOO AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ILLINOIS LOW GETS CLOSER AND RE-FIRES TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR LEFT OVER
CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY DECREASED POPS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE...HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND PWATS. THETA-E RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE
JUNE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IN SWODY2.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INT THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED
POPS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS
TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST TO GO WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND
OF COOL AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATER OF THE GREENBRIER
RIVER HAS ADVECTED FOG INTO THE KLWB AIRPORT THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR VISIBILITIES SHORTLY AFTER 13Z/9AM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291125
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND MIXING BEGINS...WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW.

MODELS KEEP DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY 00Z/8PM...BETTER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MOISTURE INCREASES TOO AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ILLINOIS LOW GETS CLOSER AND RE-FIRES TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR LEFT OVER
CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY DECREASED POPS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE...HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND PWATS. THETA-E RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE
JUNE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IN SWODY2.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INT THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED
POPS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS
TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST TO GO WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND
OF COOL AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATER OF THE GREENBRIER
RIVER HAS ADVECTED FOG INTO THE KLWB AIRPORT THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR VISIBILITIES SHORTLY AFTER 13Z/9AM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291125
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND MIXING BEGINS...WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW.

MODELS KEEP DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY 00Z/8PM...BETTER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MOISTURE INCREASES TOO AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ILLINOIS LOW GETS CLOSER AND RE-FIRES TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR LEFT OVER
CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY DECREASED POPS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE...HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND PWATS. THETA-E RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE
JUNE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IN SWODY2.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INT THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED
POPS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS
TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST TO GO WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND
OF COOL AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATER OF THE GREENBRIER
RIVER HAS ADVECTED FOG INTO THE KLWB AIRPORT THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR VISIBILITIES SHORTLY AFTER 13Z/9AM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290801
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
401 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND MIXING BEGINS...WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW.

MODELS KEEP DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY 00Z/8PM...BETTER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MOISTURE INCREASES TOO AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ILLINOIS LOW GETS CLOSER AND RE-FIRES TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR LEFT OVER
CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY DECREASED POPS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE...HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND PWATS. THETA-E RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE
JUNE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IN SWODY2.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INT THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED
POPS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS
TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST TO GO WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290801
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
401 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND MIXING BEGINS...WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW.

MODELS KEEP DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY 00Z/8PM...BETTER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MOISTURE INCREASES TOO AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ILLINOIS LOW GETS CLOSER AND RE-FIRES TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR LEFT OVER
CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY DECREASED POPS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE...HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND PWATS. THETA-E RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE
JUNE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IN SWODY2.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INT THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED
POPS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS
TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST TO GO WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...WINDS LIGHT WITH
PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...WINDS LIGHT WITH
PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...WINDS LIGHT WITH
PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...WINDS LIGHT WITH
PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE
THE LOW STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRPORTS. BUT BASED ON TIMING FROM THE MODELS...KLWB AND KBLF
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290328
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1128 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...WINDS LIGHT WITH
PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 754 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SOME SCT/V/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...TRENDING TO SKC EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TOWARD KDAN. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW DEW POINTS AND LACK OF
HAZE/PARTICULATES IN A VERY CLEAN AIRMASS BELIEVE FOG IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THE LACK OF CONDENSATION NUCLEI. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL NOT INTRODUCE FOG AT ANY TAF SITES. BRISK NW FLOW CREATED
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY BUT SLACKENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DECOUPLING WILL YIELD
LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
DAYBREAK AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH MID DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND ALLOWS SWLY RETURN
FLOW TO SET UP...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN US PUSHES A SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A LAYER OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN ALLOW SOME HIGH BASED CU TO FORM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TOMORROW. SINCE ANY CIG WILL BE VFR WILL USE A
BROAD BRUSH TO KEEP TAFS BRIEF. MODELS ARE DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE APPROACHING FEATURES AND BELIEVE ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD SO WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE PICKING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS BACK TO TAF SITES WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEING THIS LATE IN THE TAF WILL NOT INCLUDE AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD FOR GUSTS AOA 20KTS AS THIS CAN BE HANDLED
BETTER WITH LATER FORECASTS INCORPORATING MORE REFINED MODEL
GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290328
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1128 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...WINDS LIGHT WITH
PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 754 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SOME SCT/V/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...TRENDING TO SKC EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TOWARD KDAN. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW DEW POINTS AND LACK OF
HAZE/PARTICULATES IN A VERY CLEAN AIRMASS BELIEVE FOG IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THE LACK OF CONDENSATION NUCLEI. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL NOT INTRODUCE FOG AT ANY TAF SITES. BRISK NW FLOW CREATED
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY BUT SLACKENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DECOUPLING WILL YIELD
LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
DAYBREAK AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH MID DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND ALLOWS SWLY RETURN
FLOW TO SET UP...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN US PUSHES A SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A LAYER OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN ALLOW SOME HIGH BASED CU TO FORM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TOMORROW. SINCE ANY CIG WILL BE VFR WILL USE A
BROAD BRUSH TO KEEP TAFS BRIEF. MODELS ARE DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE APPROACHING FEATURES AND BELIEVE ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD SO WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE PICKING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS BACK TO TAF SITES WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEING THIS LATE IN THE TAF WILL NOT INCLUDE AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD FOR GUSTS AOA 20KTS AS THIS CAN BE HANDLED
BETTER WITH LATER FORECASTS INCORPORATING MORE REFINED MODEL
GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290328
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1128 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...WINDS LIGHT WITH
PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 754 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SOME SCT/V/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...TRENDING TO SKC EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TOWARD KDAN. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW DEW POINTS AND LACK OF
HAZE/PARTICULATES IN A VERY CLEAN AIRMASS BELIEVE FOG IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THE LACK OF CONDENSATION NUCLEI. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL NOT INTRODUCE FOG AT ANY TAF SITES. BRISK NW FLOW CREATED
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY BUT SLACKENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DECOUPLING WILL YIELD
LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
DAYBREAK AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH MID DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND ALLOWS SWLY RETURN
FLOW TO SET UP...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN US PUSHES A SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A LAYER OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN ALLOW SOME HIGH BASED CU TO FORM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TOMORROW. SINCE ANY CIG WILL BE VFR WILL USE A
BROAD BRUSH TO KEEP TAFS BRIEF. MODELS ARE DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE APPROACHING FEATURES AND BELIEVE ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD SO WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE PICKING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS BACK TO TAF SITES WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEING THIS LATE IN THE TAF WILL NOT INCLUDE AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD FOR GUSTS AOA 20KTS AS THIS CAN BE HANDLED
BETTER WITH LATER FORECASTS INCORPORATING MORE REFINED MODEL
GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. SINCE WINDS ARE DECREASING...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 754 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SOME SCT/V/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...TRENDING TO SKC EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TOWARD KDAN. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW DEW POINTS AND LACK OF
HAZE/PARTICULATES IN A VERY CLEAN AIRMASS BELIEVE FOG IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THE LACK OF CONDENSATION NUCLEI. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL NOT INTRODUCE FOG AT ANY TAF SITES. BRISK NW FLOW CREATED
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY BUT SLACKENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DECOUPLING WILL YIELD
LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
DAYBREAK AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH MID DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND ALLOWS SWLY RETURN
FLOW TO SET UP...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN US PUSHES A SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A LAYER OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN ALLOW SOME HIGH BASED CU TO FORM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TOMORROW. SINCE ANY CIG WILL BE VFR WILL USE A
BROAD BRUSH TO KEEP TAFS BRIEF. MODELS ARE DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE APPROACHING FEATURES AND BELIEVE ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD SO WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE PICKING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS BACK TO TAF SITES WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEING THIS LATE IN THE TAF WILL NOT INCLUDE AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD FOR GUSTS AOA 20KTS AS THIS CAN BE HANDLED
BETTER WITH LATER FORECASTS INCORPORATING MORE REFINED MODEL
GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 282354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. SINCE WINDS ARE DECREASING...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 754 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SOME SCT/V/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...TRENDING TO SKC EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TOWARD KDAN. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW DEW POINTS AND LACK OF
HAZE/PARTICULATES IN A VERY CLEAN AIRMASS BELIEVE FOG IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THE LACK OF CONDENSATION NUCLEI. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL NOT INTRODUCE FOG AT ANY TAF SITES. BRISK NW FLOW CREATED
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY BUT SLACKENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DECOUPLING WILL YIELD
LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
DAYBREAK AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH MID DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND ALLOWS SWLY RETURN
FLOW TO SET UP...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN US PUSHES A SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A LAYER OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN ALLOW SOME HIGH BASED CU TO FORM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TOMORROW. SINCE ANY CIG WILL BE VFR WILL USE A
BROAD BRUSH TO KEEP TAFS BRIEF. MODELS ARE DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE APPROACHING FEATURES AND BELIEVE ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD SO WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE PICKING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS BACK TO TAF SITES WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEING THIS LATE IN THE TAF WILL NOT INCLUDE AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD FOR GUSTS AOA 20KTS AS THIS CAN BE HANDLED
BETTER WITH LATER FORECASTS INCORPORATING MORE REFINED MODEL
GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. SINCE WINDS ARE DECREASING...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 754 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SOME SCT/V/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...TRENDING TO SKC EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TOWARD KDAN. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW DEW POINTS AND LACK OF
HAZE/PARTICULATES IN A VERY CLEAN AIRMASS BELIEVE FOG IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THE LACK OF CONDENSATION NUCLEI. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL NOT INTRODUCE FOG AT ANY TAF SITES. BRISK NW FLOW CREATED
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY BUT SLACKENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DECOUPLING WILL YIELD
LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
DAYBREAK AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH MID DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND ALLOWS SWLY RETURN
FLOW TO SET UP...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN US PUSHES A SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A LAYER OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN ALLOW SOME HIGH BASED CU TO FORM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TOMORROW. SINCE ANY CIG WILL BE VFR WILL USE A
BROAD BRUSH TO KEEP TAFS BRIEF. MODELS ARE DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE APPROACHING FEATURES AND BELIEVE ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD SO WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE PICKING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS BACK TO TAF SITES WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEING THIS LATE IN THE TAF WILL NOT INCLUDE AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD FOR GUSTS AOA 20KTS AS THIS CAN BE HANDLED
BETTER WITH LATER FORECASTS INCORPORATING MORE REFINED MODEL
GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. SINCE WINDS ARE DECREASING...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 754 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SOME SCT/V/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...TRENDING TO SKC EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TOWARD KDAN. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW DEW POINTS AND LACK OF
HAZE/PARTICULATES IN A VERY CLEAN AIRMASS BELIEVE FOG IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THE LACK OF CONDENSATION NUCLEI. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL NOT INTRODUCE FOG AT ANY TAF SITES. BRISK NW FLOW CREATED
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY BUT SLACKENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DECOUPLING WILL YIELD
LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
DAYBREAK AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH MID DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND ALLOWS SWLY RETURN
FLOW TO SET UP...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN US PUSHES A SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A LAYER OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN ALLOW SOME HIGH BASED CU TO FORM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TOMORROW. SINCE ANY CIG WILL BE VFR WILL USE A
BROAD BRUSH TO KEEP TAFS BRIEF. MODELS ARE DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE APPROACHING FEATURES AND BELIEVE ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD SO WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE PICKING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS BACK TO TAF SITES WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEING THIS LATE IN THE TAF WILL NOT INCLUDE AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD FOR GUSTS AOA 20KTS AS THIS CAN BE HANDLED
BETTER WITH LATER FORECASTS INCORPORATING MORE REFINED MODEL
GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 282003
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. SINCE WINDS ARE DECREASING...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 282003
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. SINCE WINDS ARE DECREASING...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE IMPULSES OR SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR UPSTREAM
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND/OR LEFT OVER CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW IF ANY PERIODS WHERE POPS CAN
BE ENTIRELY LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL REACH
THE AREA IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THE SAFEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TO INDICATE CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND LOWER CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT
DURING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS
BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO
15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT
THE MENTION OF TSRA. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA. WOULD EXPECT
A REMNANT OR DISSIPATING MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN A NON-SEVERE STATE.
MUCH OF THIS MAY NEVER MAKE IT EAST OF THE WESTERN MOST TIER OF
COUNTIES.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE NOTABLE AND PWATS HAVE RISEN BACK TO 1.50 INCH OR BETTER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE THETA-E RIDGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES...ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.
SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS
CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS TRACKING FROM THE MO/WESTERN TN
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS RIGHT OVER THE RNK CWA LATE
WED...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN TRACK THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH GIVEN ANY SOLUTION TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS NO
PERIOD WHERE POPS CAN BE LEFT BELOW MENTIONABLE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...EXPECT DAYTIME MIN/MAX TEMPS TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AFTER OUR COOL START TO THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONLY
BRIEF...SMALL POCKETS OF +20C ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING ANY 90+
READINGS AT THIS POINT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO INCREASING
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. THE MCS POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SAT AS A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NOTABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS DESTINED TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS OVERALL BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DECREASING
UPPER SUPPORT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT.

WITH THE INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS COME INCREASING 850MB/SFC
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. NOTHING EXTREME BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S PIEDMONT...WITH
HIGHS 80S WEST...CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281856
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. SINCE WINDS ARE DECREASING...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281856
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. SINCE WINDS ARE DECREASING...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281856
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. SINCE WINDS ARE DECREASING...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281723
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
123 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RELAX BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS.

AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS JUST EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
4AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH EXTENDED WELL BACK INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS APPROACHING THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEYS.

MODELS INDICATED THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AND 850 MB JET THROUGH
15Z/11AM. WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY REACHING AROUND 35 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE TO THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND
BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE LOSS OF UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR TO NORMAL UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE...ALLOWING THE
VALLEYS TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. BLUEFIELD...DANVILLE AND
LEWISBURG WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 29TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RCS
CLIMATE...AMS/DS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281723
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
123 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RELAX BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS.

AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS JUST EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
4AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH EXTENDED WELL BACK INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS APPROACHING THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEYS.

MODELS INDICATED THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AND 850 MB JET THROUGH
15Z/11AM. WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY REACHING AROUND 35 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE TO THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND
BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE LOSS OF UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR TO NORMAL UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE...ALLOWING THE
VALLEYS TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. BLUEFIELD...DANVILLE AND
LEWISBURG WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 29TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RCS
CLIMATE...AMS/DS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281351
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
951 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 944 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS.

AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS JUST EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
4AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH EXTENDED WELL BACK INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS APPROACHING THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEYS.

MODELS INDICATED THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AND 850 MB JET THROUGH
15Z/11AM. WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY REACHING AROUND 35 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE TO THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND
BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE LOSS OF UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR TO NORMAL UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE...ALLOWING THE
VALLEYS TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. BLUEFIELD...DANVILLE AND
LEWISBURG WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 29TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. 850
MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE 18Z/2PM SO SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE WEAKENS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF KBCB AND KROA AND IS EXPECTED NOT
TO IMPACT THESE AIRPORTS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WITH
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT THESE WILL NOT RESTRICT THE
VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST. ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...AMS/DS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281351
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
951 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 944 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS.

AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS JUST EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
4AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH EXTENDED WELL BACK INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS APPROACHING THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEYS.

MODELS INDICATED THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AND 850 MB JET THROUGH
15Z/11AM. WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY REACHING AROUND 35 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE TO THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND
BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE LOSS OF UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR TO NORMAL UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE...ALLOWING THE
VALLEYS TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. BLUEFIELD...DANVILLE AND
LEWISBURG WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 29TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. 850
MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE 18Z/2PM SO SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE WEAKENS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF KBCB AND KROA AND IS EXPECTED NOT
TO IMPACT THESE AIRPORTS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WITH
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT THESE WILL NOT RESTRICT THE
VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST. ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...AMS/DS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281141
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS JUST EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
4AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH EXTENDED WELL BACK INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS APPROACHING THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEYS.

MODELS INDICATED THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AND 850 MB JET THROUGH
15Z/11AM. WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY REACHING AROUND 35 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE TO THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND
BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE LOSS OF UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR TO NORMAL UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE...ALLOWING THE
VALLEYS TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. BLUEFIELD...DANVILLE AND
LEWISBURG WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 29TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. 850
MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE 18Z/2PM SO SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE WEAKENS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF KBCB AND KROA AND IS EXPECTED NOT
TO IMPACT THESE AIRPORTS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WITH
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT THESE WILL NOT RESTRICT THE
VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST. ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS/AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281141
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS JUST EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
4AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH EXTENDED WELL BACK INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS APPROACHING THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEYS.

MODELS INDICATED THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AND 850 MB JET THROUGH
15Z/11AM. WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY REACHING AROUND 35 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE TO THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND
BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE LOSS OF UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR TO NORMAL UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE...ALLOWING THE
VALLEYS TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. BLUEFIELD...DANVILLE AND
LEWISBURG WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 29TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. 850
MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE 18Z/2PM SO SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE WEAKENS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF KBCB AND KROA AND IS EXPECTED NOT
TO IMPACT THESE AIRPORTS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WITH
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT THESE WILL NOT RESTRICT THE
VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST. ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS/AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281141
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS JUST EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
4AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH EXTENDED WELL BACK INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS APPROACHING THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEYS.

MODELS INDICATED THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AND 850 MB JET THROUGH
15Z/11AM. WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY REACHING AROUND 35 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE TO THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND
BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE LOSS OF UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR TO NORMAL UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE...ALLOWING THE
VALLEYS TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. BLUEFIELD...DANVILLE AND
LEWISBURG WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 29TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. 850
MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE 18Z/2PM SO SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE WEAKENS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF KBCB AND KROA AND IS EXPECTED NOT
TO IMPACT THESE AIRPORTS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WITH
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT THESE WILL NOT RESTRICT THE
VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST. ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS/AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280846
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
446 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION
BY MID WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS JUST EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
4AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH EXTENDED WELL BACK INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS APPROACHING THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEYS.

MODELS INDICATED THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AND 850 MB JET THROUGH
15Z/11AM. WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY REACHING AROUND 35 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE TO THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND
BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE LOSS OF UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR TO NORMAL UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE...ALLOWING THE
VALLEYS TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. BLUEFIELD...DANVILLE AND
LEWISBURG WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 29TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT AT 05Z/1AM HAD JUST CROSSED THROUGH KLYH. FRONT WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO KDAN AT 06Z/2AM SO HAVE STARTED THE TAF WITH A WEST
WIND. 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SO
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER WELL INTO
WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR AT KBLF AND KLWB BASED ON THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE WINDS TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF LIFR CLOUDS
NEAR THE FRONT WILL IMPACT KDAN BUT AS DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280846
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
446 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION
BY MID WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WAS JUST EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
4AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH EXTENDED WELL BACK INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS APPROACHING THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEYS.

MODELS INDICATED THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AND 850 MB JET THROUGH
15Z/11AM. WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY REACHING AROUND 35 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE TO THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND
BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE LOSS OF UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR TO NORMAL UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE...ALLOWING THE
VALLEYS TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. BLUEFIELD...DANVILLE AND
LEWISBURG WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 29TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE
DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT AT 05Z/1AM HAD JUST CROSSED THROUGH KLYH. FRONT WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO KDAN AT 06Z/2AM SO HAVE STARTED THE TAF WITH A WEST
WIND. 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SO
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER WELL INTO
WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR AT KBLF AND KLWB BASED ON THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE WINDS TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF LIFR CLOUDS
NEAR THE FRONT WILL IMPACT KDAN BUT AS DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280557
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FROPA!

FRONTAL PASSAGE ONGOING. IT PASSED NWS BLACKSBURG AT JUST AFTER 10
PM. SHOULD CROSS THE ROANOKE VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. A REFRESHINGLY
DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION...COMPLIMENTED BY A FRESH
NORTHWEST WIND.

SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE.

STRENGTH OF SURFACE FRONT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE DURING THE WINTER WITH GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS AFTER FROPA. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...
850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME RESPECTABLE SURFACE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS...AND JUST LEE OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES...AND A RELATIVELY
WET GROUND COURTESY OF THE SHOWERS THE LAST FEW DAYS...GUSTS OF
THESE SPEEDS MAY UPSET A FEW TREES. AS SUCH...A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS
THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING
RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT AT 05Z/1AM HAD JUST CROSSED THROUGH KLYH. FRONT WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO KDAN AT 06Z/2AM SO HAVE STARTED THE TAF WITH A WEST
WIND. 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SO
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER WELL INTO
WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR AT KBLF AND KLWB BASED ON THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE WINDS TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF LIFR CLOUDS
NEAR THE FRONT WILL IMPACT KDAN BUT AS DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280557
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FROPA!

FRONTAL PASSAGE ONGOING. IT PASSED NWS BLACKSBURG AT JUST AFTER 10
PM. SHOULD CROSS THE ROANOKE VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. A REFRESHINGLY
DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION...COMPLIMENTED BY A FRESH
NORTHWEST WIND.

SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE.

STRENGTH OF SURFACE FRONT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE DURING THE WINTER WITH GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS AFTER FROPA. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...
850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME RESPECTABLE SURFACE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS...AND JUST LEE OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES...AND A RELATIVELY
WET GROUND COURTESY OF THE SHOWERS THE LAST FEW DAYS...GUSTS OF
THESE SPEEDS MAY UPSET A FEW TREES. AS SUCH...A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS
THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING
RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT AT 05Z/1AM HAD JUST CROSSED THROUGH KLYH. FRONT WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO KDAN AT 06Z/2AM SO HAVE STARTED THE TAF WITH A WEST
WIND. 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SO
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER WELL INTO
WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR AT KBLF AND KLWB BASED ON THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE WINDS TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF LIFR CLOUDS
NEAR THE FRONT WILL IMPACT KDAN BUT AS DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280557
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FROPA!

FRONTAL PASSAGE ONGOING. IT PASSED NWS BLACKSBURG AT JUST AFTER 10
PM. SHOULD CROSS THE ROANOKE VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. A REFRESHINGLY
DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION...COMPLIMENTED BY A FRESH
NORTHWEST WIND.

SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE.

STRENGTH OF SURFACE FRONT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE DURING THE WINTER WITH GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS AFTER FROPA. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...
850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME RESPECTABLE SURFACE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS...AND JUST LEE OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES...AND A RELATIVELY
WET GROUND COURTESY OF THE SHOWERS THE LAST FEW DAYS...GUSTS OF
THESE SPEEDS MAY UPSET A FEW TREES. AS SUCH...A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS
THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING
RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT AT 05Z/1AM HAD JUST CROSSED THROUGH KLYH. FRONT WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO KDAN AT 06Z/2AM SO HAVE STARTED THE TAF WITH A WEST
WIND. 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SO
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER WELL INTO
WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR AT KBLF AND KLWB BASED ON THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE WINDS TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF LIFR CLOUDS
NEAR THE FRONT WILL IMPACT KDAN BUT AS DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280557
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FROPA!

FRONTAL PASSAGE ONGOING. IT PASSED NWS BLACKSBURG AT JUST AFTER 10
PM. SHOULD CROSS THE ROANOKE VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. A REFRESHINGLY
DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION...COMPLIMENTED BY A FRESH
NORTHWEST WIND.

SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE.

STRENGTH OF SURFACE FRONT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE DURING THE WINTER WITH GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS AFTER FROPA. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...
850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME RESPECTABLE SURFACE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS...AND JUST LEE OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES...AND A RELATIVELY
WET GROUND COURTESY OF THE SHOWERS THE LAST FEW DAYS...GUSTS OF
THESE SPEEDS MAY UPSET A FEW TREES. AS SUCH...A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS
THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING
RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT AT 05Z/1AM HAD JUST CROSSED THROUGH KLYH. FRONT WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO KDAN AT 06Z/2AM SO HAVE STARTED THE TAF WITH A WEST
WIND. 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE SO
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER WELL INTO
WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR AT KBLF AND KLWB BASED ON THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE WINDS TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF LIFR CLOUDS
NEAR THE FRONT WILL IMPACT KDAN BUT AS DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280247
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1047 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FROPA!

FRONTAL PASSAGE ONGOING. IT PASSED NWS BLACKSBURG AT JUST AFTER 10
PM. SHOULD CROSS THE ROANOKE VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. A REFRESHINGLY
DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION...COMPLIMENTED BY A FRESH
NORTHWEST WIND.

SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE.

STRENGTH OF SURFACE FRONT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE DURING THE WINTER WITH GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS AFTER FROPA. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...
850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME RESPECTABLE SURFACE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS...AND JUST LEE OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES...AND A RELATIVELY
WET GROUND COURTESY OF THE SHOWERS THE LAST FEW DAYS...GUSTS OF
THESE SPEEDS MAY UPSET A FEW TREES. AS SUCH...A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS
THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING
RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
FROPA WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER THREAT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.

THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SIMILAR TO SOMETHING YOU WOULD SEE IN THE
WINTER-TIME WITH STRONG CROSS BARRIER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER ON
THE WINDWARD...WEST...SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. ANY
DAYBREAK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS NOW OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY.

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280247
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1047 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FROPA!

FRONTAL PASSAGE ONGOING. IT PASSED NWS BLACKSBURG AT JUST AFTER 10
PM. SHOULD CROSS THE ROANOKE VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. A REFRESHINGLY
DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION...COMPLIMENTED BY A FRESH
NORTHWEST WIND.

SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE.

STRENGTH OF SURFACE FRONT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE DURING THE WINTER WITH GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS AFTER FROPA. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...
850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME RESPECTABLE SURFACE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS...AND JUST LEE OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES...AND A RELATIVELY
WET GROUND COURTESY OF THE SHOWERS THE LAST FEW DAYS...GUSTS OF
THESE SPEEDS MAY UPSET A FEW TREES. AS SUCH...A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS
THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING
RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
FROPA WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER THREAT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.

THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SIMILAR TO SOMETHING YOU WOULD SEE IN THE
WINTER-TIME WITH STRONG CROSS BARRIER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER ON
THE WINDWARD...WEST...SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. ANY
DAYBREAK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS NOW OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY.

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280247
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1047 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FROPA!

FRONTAL PASSAGE ONGOING. IT PASSED NWS BLACKSBURG AT JUST AFTER 10
PM. SHOULD CROSS THE ROANOKE VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. A REFRESHINGLY
DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION...COMPLIMENTED BY A FRESH
NORTHWEST WIND.

SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE.

STRENGTH OF SURFACE FRONT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE DURING THE WINTER WITH GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS AFTER FROPA. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...
850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME RESPECTABLE SURFACE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS...AND JUST LEE OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES...AND A RELATIVELY
WET GROUND COURTESY OF THE SHOWERS THE LAST FEW DAYS...GUSTS OF
THESE SPEEDS MAY UPSET A FEW TREES. AS SUCH...A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS
THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING
RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
FROPA WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER THREAT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.

THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SIMILAR TO SOMETHING YOU WOULD SEE IN THE
WINTER-TIME WITH STRONG CROSS BARRIER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER ON
THE WINDWARD...WEST...SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. ANY
DAYBREAK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS NOW OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY.

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280247
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1047 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FROPA!

FRONTAL PASSAGE ONGOING. IT PASSED NWS BLACKSBURG AT JUST AFTER 10
PM. SHOULD CROSS THE ROANOKE VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. A REFRESHINGLY
DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION...COMPLIMENTED BY A FRESH
NORTHWEST WIND.

SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE.

STRENGTH OF SURFACE FRONT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE DURING THE WINTER WITH GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS AFTER FROPA. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...
850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME RESPECTABLE SURFACE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS...AND JUST LEE OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES...AND A RELATIVELY
WET GROUND COURTESY OF THE SHOWERS THE LAST FEW DAYS...GUSTS OF
THESE SPEEDS MAY UPSET A FEW TREES. AS SUCH...A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS
THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING
RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
FROPA WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER THREAT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.

THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SIMILAR TO SOMETHING YOU WOULD SEE IN THE
WINTER-TIME WITH STRONG CROSS BARRIER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER ON
THE WINDWARD...WEST...SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. ANY
DAYBREAK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS NOW OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY.

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280005
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND CROSS THROUGH
AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE RETURN TO A
MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM EASTERN OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. ITS PARENT LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW. THE COMPLEX FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND STABILITY THAT PROLONGED THE INITIATION OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...THE TREND TOWARDS MORE
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPIRE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EYEING THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUR CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM. GIVEN HOW THE
AREA IS TRANSITIONING TO CONVECTIVE BASED PRECIPITATION...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...ANY FLASH FLOODING AT THIS POINT AN
ONWARD WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SLOW MOVING...OR TRAINING...THUNDERSTORM
OR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS THE SAME AREA AS THE
WATCH...BASED UPON THE LOWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL EXPERIENCE A CHANGE TO A
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNTS
OF SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO A
WINTERTIME SCENARIO WITH UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING...AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A 850 MB WIND SOLUTION AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS
ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS WESTWARD AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS MAY TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE
TREES...AND AT LEAST A WET...IF NOT SATURATED IN SOME
LOCATIONS...SOIL MOISTURES...GUSTS OF THESE SPEEDS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF DOWNING TREES THAT OTHERWISE MAY NOT BE MORE PRONE TO
FALLING. GIVEN THIS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...RATHER THAN THE WIND ADVISORY GUSTS THAT WE
TYPICALLY ARE EXPECTING WHEN ONE IS ISSUED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUED TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHTER WINDS
SPEEDS...AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO
RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN
FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
FROPA WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER THREAT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.

THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SIMILAR TO SOMETHING YOU WOULD SEE IN THE
WINTER-TIME WITH STRONG CROSS BARRIER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER ON
THE WINDWARD...WEST...SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. ANY
DAYBREAK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS NOW OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY.

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280005
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND CROSS THROUGH
AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE RETURN TO A
MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM EASTERN OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. ITS PARENT LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW. THE COMPLEX FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND STABILITY THAT PROLONGED THE INITIATION OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...THE TREND TOWARDS MORE
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPIRE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EYEING THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUR CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM. GIVEN HOW THE
AREA IS TRANSITIONING TO CONVECTIVE BASED PRECIPITATION...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...ANY FLASH FLOODING AT THIS POINT AN
ONWARD WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SLOW MOVING...OR TRAINING...THUNDERSTORM
OR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS THE SAME AREA AS THE
WATCH...BASED UPON THE LOWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL EXPERIENCE A CHANGE TO A
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNTS
OF SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO A
WINTERTIME SCENARIO WITH UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING...AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A 850 MB WIND SOLUTION AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS
ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS WESTWARD AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS MAY TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE
TREES...AND AT LEAST A WET...IF NOT SATURATED IN SOME
LOCATIONS...SOIL MOISTURES...GUSTS OF THESE SPEEDS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF DOWNING TREES THAT OTHERWISE MAY NOT BE MORE PRONE TO
FALLING. GIVEN THIS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...RATHER THAN THE WIND ADVISORY GUSTS THAT WE
TYPICALLY ARE EXPECTING WHEN ONE IS ISSUED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUED TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHTER WINDS
SPEEDS...AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO
RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN
FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
FROPA WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER THREAT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.

THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SIMILAR TO SOMETHING YOU WOULD SEE IN THE
WINTER-TIME WITH STRONG CROSS BARRIER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER ON
THE WINDWARD...WEST...SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. ANY
DAYBREAK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS NOW OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY.

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280005
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND CROSS THROUGH
AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE RETURN TO A
MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM EASTERN OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. ITS PARENT LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW. THE COMPLEX FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND STABILITY THAT PROLONGED THE INITIATION OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...THE TREND TOWARDS MORE
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPIRE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EYEING THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUR CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM. GIVEN HOW THE
AREA IS TRANSITIONING TO CONVECTIVE BASED PRECIPITATION...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...ANY FLASH FLOODING AT THIS POINT AN
ONWARD WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SLOW MOVING...OR TRAINING...THUNDERSTORM
OR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS THE SAME AREA AS THE
WATCH...BASED UPON THE LOWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL EXPERIENCE A CHANGE TO A
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNTS
OF SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO A
WINTERTIME SCENARIO WITH UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING...AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A 850 MB WIND SOLUTION AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS
ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS WESTWARD AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS MAY TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE
TREES...AND AT LEAST A WET...IF NOT SATURATED IN SOME
LOCATIONS...SOIL MOISTURES...GUSTS OF THESE SPEEDS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF DOWNING TREES THAT OTHERWISE MAY NOT BE MORE PRONE TO
FALLING. GIVEN THIS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...RATHER THAN THE WIND ADVISORY GUSTS THAT WE
TYPICALLY ARE EXPECTING WHEN ONE IS ISSUED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUED TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHTER WINDS
SPEEDS...AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO
RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN
FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
FROPA WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER THREAT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.

THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SIMILAR TO SOMETHING YOU WOULD SEE IN THE
WINTER-TIME WITH STRONG CROSS BARRIER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER ON
THE WINDWARD...WEST...SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. ANY
DAYBREAK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS NOW OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY.

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS





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