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000
FXUS61 KRNK 081219
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
719 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG CYCLONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CUTOFF AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER TODAY AND
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT...THIS FRONT CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE WEEK RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
SNOW SHOWER EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EST MONDAY...

COLD ARCTIC LOW...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WAS CENTERED OVER
WISCONSIN. TWO FRONTS TRAILED SOUTH FROM THE LOW. THE FIRST
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN SOUTH THROUGH OHIO AND INTO CENTRAL KY/TN.
THIS FIRST FRONT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF RAIN...
TEMPERATURES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 40S...AND 30S JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SECOND FRONT EXTENDED FROM WISCONSIN SOUTH
THROUGH IOWA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WAS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC BITTER COLD WITH TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THIS FRONT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

THE FIRST FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
ARRIVING IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE
TOWARD NOON...THEN MOVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. IN SPITE OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS WARM...EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...
AND ALL RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE ACCUMULATION SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER EVAPORATIONAL COOLING CAN MAINTAIN A P-TYPE OF ALL SNOW.
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL NOT. TOTAL MODEL QPF IN LIQUID
EQUIVALENT FORM IS 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES.

ITS NOT IN THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDER. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
40S IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS MAY CREATE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO DRIVE A LINE OF DEEPER CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT. FALLING HEIGHTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROF MAY DRIVE SOMETHING MORE ROBUST
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS THEN COLDER AIR WITHIN THE
DOWNDRAFTS COULD DRIVE HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW RATES THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BY TONIGHT THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND HEADED FOR THE COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
DRAWING DOWN THE TEMPERATURE WITH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WILL THEN BRING ONSET OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR STEADIER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

WILL MAINTAIN WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN COUNTIES BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. WILL FINE TUNE THIS HEADLINE
ONCE WE GET PAST TODAYS PRECIPITATION EPISODE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PHYSICAL BREAK BETWEEN THE PRECIP THAT OCCURS TODAY VERSUS THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED A HEALTHY
SHORTWAVE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH PIVOTS EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH AROUND 700 MB...WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW
FLURRIES. THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS WHEN AND HOW FAR EAST
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRIME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WILL
SPREAD THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FURTHER EAST TUESDAY
INTO THE PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 IN THE PIEDMONT. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ROLLING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ENOUGH COLD AIR...COMBINED WITH MODERATE WINDS...WILL RESULT IN COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES. IN THE MOUNTAINS...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY FROM A
COATING TO CLOSE TO 3 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FIRST IN THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES
WILL BE ON THE HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS
WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
30S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST SUNDAY...

CLOSED 500 MB LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BUT HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE REGION. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MORE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING VARIATIONS OF A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDING WELL
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.
WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY THAT IS ASSOCIATION WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. BUT AT THAT TIME
FRAME...LOCATION AND TIMING ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST MONDAY...

DEEP UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.


CLOUD BASES WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN THE
14Z-18Z TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING
AND INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT...TEMP PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT IT MAY LARGELY BE RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE CARRIED
ONLY -RA FOR KDAN AND KLYH...WITH A -RASN MIX KROA...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THERE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE INITIAL BAND OF FRONTAL FORCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT...AND WITH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY END EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT -SHSN SHOULD
COMMENCE IN EARNEST ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS WITH MVFR CIGS LOWERING
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN 6KT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...THEN BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AFTER
FROPA.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
SLOPES TONIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
KBLF/KLWB IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA AS IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS
OF SNOW DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO
OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR
CIGS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012-015-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042-
     043-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 081007
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
507 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG CYCLONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CUTOFF AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER TODAY AND
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT...THIS FRONT CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE WEEK RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
SNOW SHOWER EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EST MONDAY...

COLD ARCTIC LOW...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WAS CENTERED OVER
WISCONSIN. TWO FRONTS TRAILED SOUTH FROM THE LOW. THE FIRST
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN SOUTH THROUGH OHIO AND INTO CENTRAL KY/TN.
THIS FIRST FRONT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF RAIN...
TEMPERATURES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 40S...AND 30S JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SECOND FRONT EXTENDED FROM WISCONSIN SOUTH
THROUGH IOWA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WAS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC BITTER COLD WITH TEMPERAUTRES BEHIND
THIS FRONT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

THE FIRST FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
ARRIVING IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE
TOWARD NOON...THEN MOVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. IN SPITE OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS WARM...EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...
AND ALL RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE ACCUMULATION SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER EVAPORATIONAL COOLING CAN MAINTAIN A P-TYPE OF ALL SNOW.
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL NOT. TOTAL MODEL QPF IN LIQUID
EQUIVALENT FORM IS 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES.

ITS NOT IN THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDER. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
40S IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS MAY CREATE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO DRIVE A LINE OF DEEPER CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT. FALLING HEIGHTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROF MAY DRIVE SOMETHING MORE ROBUST
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS THEN COLDER AIR WITHIN THE
DOWNDRAFTS COULD DRIVE HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW RATES THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BY TONIGHT THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND HEADED FOR THE COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
DRAWING DOWN THE TEMEPERATURE WITH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WILL THEN BRING ONSET OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STEADIER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

WILL MAINTAIN WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN COUNTIES BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. WILL FINE TUNE THIS HEADLINE
ONCE WE GET PAST TODAYS PRECIPITATION EPISODE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PHYSICAL BREAK BETWEEN THRE PRECIP THAT OCCURS TODAY VERSUS THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED A HEALTHY
SHORTWAVE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH PIVOTS EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH AROUND 700 MB...WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW
FLURRIES. THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS WHEN AND HOW FAR EAST
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRIME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WILL
SPREAD THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FURTHER EAST TUESDAY
INTO THE PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 IN THE PIEDMONT. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ROLLING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ENOUGH COLD AIR...COMBINED WITH MODERATE WINDS...WILL RESULT IN COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES. IN THE MOUNTAINS...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY FROM A
COATING TO CLOSE TO 3 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FIRST IN THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES
WILL BE ON THE HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS
WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
30S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST SUNDAY...

CLOSED 500 MB LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BUT HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE REGION. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MORE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING VARIATIONS OF A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDING WELL
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.
WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY THAT IS ASSOCIATION WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. BUT AT THAT TIME
FRAME...LOCATION AND TIMING ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SUNDAY...

THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE CWA SHOULD GENERALLY BE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND A DEEP UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...DEEPER
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT REACH THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AFTER DAYBREAK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SO LARGELY...ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY KBLF-KLYH AND KBCB IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH -SN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT...TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IT MAY
LARGELY BE RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE CARRIED ONLY -RA FOR
KDAN AND KLYH...WITH A -RASN MIX KROA...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SNOW THERE. KBCB SHOULD SEE MOSTLY -SN...BUT SOME -RA POSSIBLE AT
THE ONSET. THE INITIAL BAND OF FRONTAL FORCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT...AND WITH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY END EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT -SHSN
SHOULD COMMENCE IN EARNEST ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS WITH MVFR CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR DURING
THE MORNING/AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW...IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...DETERIORATING TO IFR OR PERHAPS
EVEN LIFR IN THE WEST IN INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOME BLOWING SNOW...ALTHOUGH DID NOT ADVERTISE THAT JUST YET.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A NNW WIND WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS. TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WINDS IN THE WEST SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW 5-7KTS AND
THIS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. BY EVENING...WINDS WILL
BECOME WSW-WNW 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA AS
IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO
OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ007-009>012-015-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042-
     043-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 080515
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1215 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL THEN RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER EVENT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH CIRRUS SHIELD FROM
LARGE STORM BOMBING OUT OFF THE COAST COVERING THE EASTERN PART OF
OUR AREA...WHILE THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL A WAYS OFF
TO OUR WEST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BEFORE DAYBREAK AND INCREASING LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT HAVE THE SITUATION COVERED.

PREVIOUS AFD...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS HAS CONTINUED TO FAN A DEFORMATION
MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT FINALLY
SEEING SIGNS OF THINNING WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP UP WILL SEE THIS AXIS OF CLOUDS FINALLY
SHIFT EAST...EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING PER LATEST
GFS CLOUD FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE
CLEARING BETWEEN THE EXITING OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUS WENT BELOW MOS TEMPS GIVEN A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.

STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PIVOTS EAST MONDAY ALLOWING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO WORK EAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN AXIS OF LIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY WORKING ACROSS THE CWA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. CONCERNS REMAIN WITH TIMING AND THE DEGREE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING THAT COULD OCCUR...AND JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE
ABLE TO BE GENERATED AS MOISTURE WORKS INTO LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE OFFSHORE LOW. LATEST GFS REMAINS THE WETTEST WITH OVER A QUARTER
INCH LIQUID OVER THE NORTH/WEST WHILE THE NAM QUITE DRY AND THE
SREF/12Z EC IN THE MIDDLE. SINCE THERE IS SOME GOOD BACKING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND A RATHER STRONG BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT...THINK
THERE COULD BE A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD IF ARRIVAL
IS AS FAST AS THE GFS. ELSEWHERE MAY SEE PRECIP START AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOSTLY LIQUID HEADING EAST
EXCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY
CTYS AND SKYLINE DRIVE WHERE MORE SNOW POSSIBLE UP TOP.

THEREFORE TRENDING POPS WITH A BAND OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WORKING
EAST...REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...AND THE PIEDMONT
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED TOO MUCH WARMING DOESN`T OCCUR AND THE
BAND STAYS TOGETHER CROSSING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FAR WEST TO UP TO AN INCH OUT TO PARTS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND LITTLE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN AMOUNTS BASICALLY NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPE COUNTIES FOR MONDAY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S OR WARMER EAST GIVEN WARM
ADVECTION...WHILE PERHAPS GETTING STUCK IN THE LOW/MID 30S FAR WEST IF
PRECIP IS FASTER. THIS SUPPORTS RUNNING WITH A BLEND WHILE NUDGING
VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS SHOWING NEXT SURGES OF COLDER AIR COMING IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 700 MB...THEREFORE RESULTING GIN SNOW
SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL LULLS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
ANTICIPATE MORE TIME WITH PRECIPITATION THAN WITHOUT. MORE
QUESTIONABLE IS WHEN AND HOW FAR EAST BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRIME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WILL TREND
TOWARD AT LEAST SOME PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NEARLY
AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ALSO ENHANCING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HYSPLIT TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GFS SHOWED
BETWEEN AIR 2000 AND 300 FEET AGL MAY BE PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA...SINCE TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. PLUS...ENOUGH COLD
AIR...COMBINED WITH MODERATE WINDS...TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WIND
CHILL VALUES. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER WEST FACING
SLOPES AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAYED AS COLD OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST SUNDAY...

CLOSED 500 MB LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BUT HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE REGION. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MORE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING VARIATIONS OF A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDING WELL
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.
WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY THAT IS ASSOCIATION WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. BUT AT THAT TIME
FRAME...LOCATION AND TIMING ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SUNDAY...

THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE CWA SHOULD GENERALLY BE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND A DEEP UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...DEEPER
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT REACH THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AFTER DAYBREAK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SO LARGELY...ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY KBLF-KLYH AND KBCB IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH -SN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT...TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IT MAY
LARGELY BE RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE CARRIED ONLY -RA FOR
KDAN AND KLYH...WITH A -RASN MIX KROA...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SNOW THERE. KBCB SHOULD SEE MOSTLY -SN...BUT SOME -RA POSSIBLE AT
THE ONSET. THE INITIAL BAND OF FRONTAL FORCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT...AND WITH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY END EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT -SHSN
SHOULD COMMENCE IN EARNEST ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS WITH MVFR CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR DURING
THE MORNING/AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW...IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...DETERIORATING TO IFR OR PERHAPS
EVEN LIFR IN THE WEST IN INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOME BLOWING SNOW...ALTHOUGH DID NOT ADVERTISE THAT JUST YET.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A NNW WIND WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS. TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WINDS IN THE WEST SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW 5-7KTS AND
THIS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. BY EVENING...WINDS WILL
BECOME WSW-WNW 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA AS
IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO
OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012-015-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042-043-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 080227
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
927 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL THEN RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER EVENT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH CIRRUS SHIELD FROM
LARGE STORM BOMBING OUT OFF THE COAST COVERING THE EASTERN PART OF
OUR AREA...WHILE THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL A WAYS OFF
TO OUR WEST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BEFORE DAYBREAK AND INCREASING LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT HAVE THE SITUATION COVERED.

PREVIOUS AFD...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS HAS CONTINUED TO FAN A DEFORMATION
MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT FINALLY
SEEING SIGNS OF THINNING WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP UP WILL SEE THIS AXIS OF CLOUDS FINALLY
SHIFT EAST...EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING PER LATEST
GFS CLOUD FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE
CLEARING BETWEEN THE EXITING OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUS WENT BELOW MOS TEMPS GIVEN A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.

STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PIVOTS EAST MONDAY ALLOWING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO WORK EAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN AXIS OF LIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY WORKING ACROSS THE CWA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. CONCERNS REMAIN WITH TIMING AND THE DEGREE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING THAT COULD OCCUR...AND JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE
ABLE TO BE GENERATED AS MOISTURE WORKS INTO LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE OFFSHORE LOW. LATEST GFS REMAINS THE WETTEST WITH OVER A QUARTER
INCH LIQUID OVER THE NORTH/WEST WHILE THE NAM QUITE DRY AND THE
SREF/12Z EC IN THE MIDDLE. SINCE THERE IS SOME GOOD BACKING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND A RATHER STRONG BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT...THINK
THERE COULD BE A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD IF ARRIVAL
IS AS FAST AS THE GFS. ELSEWHERE MAY SEE PRECIP START AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOSTLY LIQUID HEADING EAST
EXCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY
CTYS AND SKYLINE DRIVE WHERE MORE SNOW POSSIBLE UP TOP.

THEREFORE TRENDING POPS WITH A BAND OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WORKING
EAST...REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...AND THE PIEDMONT
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED TOO MUCH WARMING DOESN`T OCCUR AND THE
BAND STAYS TOGETHER CROSSING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FAR WEST TO UP TO AN INCH OUT TO PARTS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND LITTLE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN AMOUNTS BASICALLY NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPE COUNTIES FOR MONDAY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S OR WARMER EAST GIVEN WARM
ADVECTION...WHILE PERHAPS GETTING STUCK IN THE LOW/MID 30S FAR WEST IF
PRECIP IS FASTER. THIS SUPPORTS RUNNING WITH A BLEND WHILE NUDGING
VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS SHOWING NEXT SURGES OF COLDER AIR COMING IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 700 MB...THEREFORE RESULTING GIN SNOW
SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL LULLS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
ANTICIPATE MORE TIME WITH PRECIPITATION THAN WITHOUT. MORE
QUESTIONABLE IS WHEN AND HOW FAR EAST BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRIME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WILL TREND
TOWARD AT LEAST SOME PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NEARLY
AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ALSO ENHANCING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HYSPLIT TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GFS SHOWED
BETWEEN AIR 2000 AND 300 FEET AGL MAY BE PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA...SINCE TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. PLUS...ENOUGH COLD
AIR...COMBINED WITH MODERATE WINDS...TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WIND
CHILL VALUES. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER WEST FACING
SLOPES AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAYED AS COLD OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST SUNDAY...

CLOSED 500 MB LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BUT HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE REGION. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MORE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING VARIATIONS OF A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDING WELL
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.
WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY THAT IS ASSOCIATION WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. BUT AT THAT TIME
FRAME...LOCATION AND TIMING ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY...

STILL DEALING WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY FROM THE DEEP
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL PULL NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO OCCUR THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT THE BACK EDGE
TO REACH THE KDAN/KLYH AREA BY 06Z. AT ANY RATES...CIGS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 10KFT.

OVERNIGHT...THE CWA SHOULD GENERALLY BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND A DEEP UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...DEEPER ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SHOULD NOT REACH THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AFTER DAYBREAK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SO LARGELY...ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY KBLF-KLYH AND KBCB IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH -SN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT...TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IT MAY
LARGELY BE RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE CARRIED ONLY -RA FOR
KDAN...WITH A -RASN MIX KLYH/KROA...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
THERE. KBCB SHOULD SEE MOSTLY -SN...BUT SOME -RA POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET. THE INITIAL BAND OF FRONTAL FORCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT...AND WITH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY END EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT -SHSN
SHOULD COMMENCE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS WITH MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO
IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A NNW WIND WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS. TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WINDS IN THE WEST SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW 5-7KTS AND
THIS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. BY EVENING...WINDS WILL
BECOME WSW-WNW 7-10KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA AS
IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO
OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012-015-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042-043-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 080227
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
927 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL THEN RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER EVENT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH CIRRUS SHIELD FROM
LARGE STORM BOMBING OUT OFF THE COAST COVERING THE EASTERN PART OF
OUR AREA...WHILE THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL A WAYS OFF
TO OUR WEST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BEFORE DAYBREAK AND INCREASING LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT HAVE THE SITUATION COVERED.

PREVIOUS AFD...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS HAS CONTINUED TO FAN A DEFORMATION
MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT FINALLY
SEEING SIGNS OF THINNING WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP UP WILL SEE THIS AXIS OF CLOUDS FINALLY
SHIFT EAST...EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING PER LATEST
GFS CLOUD FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE
CLEARING BETWEEN THE EXITING OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUS WENT BELOW MOS TEMPS GIVEN A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.

STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PIVOTS EAST MONDAY ALLOWING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO WORK EAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN AXIS OF LIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY WORKING ACROSS THE CWA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. CONCERNS REMAIN WITH TIMING AND THE DEGREE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING THAT COULD OCCUR...AND JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE
ABLE TO BE GENERATED AS MOISTURE WORKS INTO LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE OFFSHORE LOW. LATEST GFS REMAINS THE WETTEST WITH OVER A QUARTER
INCH LIQUID OVER THE NORTH/WEST WHILE THE NAM QUITE DRY AND THE
SREF/12Z EC IN THE MIDDLE. SINCE THERE IS SOME GOOD BACKING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND A RATHER STRONG BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT...THINK
THERE COULD BE A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD IF ARRIVAL
IS AS FAST AS THE GFS. ELSEWHERE MAY SEE PRECIP START AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOSTLY LIQUID HEADING EAST
EXCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY
CTYS AND SKYLINE DRIVE WHERE MORE SNOW POSSIBLE UP TOP.

THEREFORE TRENDING POPS WITH A BAND OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WORKING
EAST...REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...AND THE PIEDMONT
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED TOO MUCH WARMING DOESN`T OCCUR AND THE
BAND STAYS TOGETHER CROSSING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FAR WEST TO UP TO AN INCH OUT TO PARTS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND LITTLE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN AMOUNTS BASICALLY NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPE COUNTIES FOR MONDAY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S OR WARMER EAST GIVEN WARM
ADVECTION...WHILE PERHAPS GETTING STUCK IN THE LOW/MID 30S FAR WEST IF
PRECIP IS FASTER. THIS SUPPORTS RUNNING WITH A BLEND WHILE NUDGING
VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS SHOWING NEXT SURGES OF COLDER AIR COMING IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 700 MB...THEREFORE RESULTING GIN SNOW
SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL LULLS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
ANTICIPATE MORE TIME WITH PRECIPITATION THAN WITHOUT. MORE
QUESTIONABLE IS WHEN AND HOW FAR EAST BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRIME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WILL TREND
TOWARD AT LEAST SOME PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NEARLY
AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ALSO ENHANCING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HYSPLIT TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GFS SHOWED
BETWEEN AIR 2000 AND 300 FEET AGL MAY BE PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA...SINCE TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. PLUS...ENOUGH COLD
AIR...COMBINED WITH MODERATE WINDS...TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WIND
CHILL VALUES. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER WEST FACING
SLOPES AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAYED AS COLD OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST SUNDAY...

CLOSED 500 MB LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BUT HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE REGION. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MORE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING VARIATIONS OF A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDING WELL
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.
WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY THAT IS ASSOCIATION WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. BUT AT THAT TIME
FRAME...LOCATION AND TIMING ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY...

STILL DEALING WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY FROM THE DEEP
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL PULL NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO OCCUR THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT THE BACK EDGE
TO REACH THE KDAN/KLYH AREA BY 06Z. AT ANY RATES...CIGS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 10KFT.

OVERNIGHT...THE CWA SHOULD GENERALLY BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND A DEEP UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...DEEPER ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SHOULD NOT REACH THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AFTER DAYBREAK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SO LARGELY...ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY KBLF-KLYH AND KBCB IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH -SN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT...TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IT MAY
LARGELY BE RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE CARRIED ONLY -RA FOR
KDAN...WITH A -RASN MIX KLYH/KROA...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
THERE. KBCB SHOULD SEE MOSTLY -SN...BUT SOME -RA POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET. THE INITIAL BAND OF FRONTAL FORCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT...AND WITH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY END EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT -SHSN
SHOULD COMMENCE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS WITH MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO
IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A NNW WIND WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS. TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WINDS IN THE WEST SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW 5-7KTS AND
THIS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. BY EVENING...WINDS WILL
BECOME WSW-WNW 7-10KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA AS
IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO
OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012-015-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042-043-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 080227
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
927 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL THEN RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER EVENT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH CIRRUS SHIELD FROM
LARGE STORM BOMBING OUT OFF THE COAST COVERING THE EASTERN PART OF
OUR AREA...WHILE THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL A WAYS OFF
TO OUR WEST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BEFORE DAYBREAK AND INCREASING LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT HAVE THE SITUATION COVERED.

PREVIOUS AFD...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS HAS CONTINUED TO FAN A DEFORMATION
MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT FINALLY
SEEING SIGNS OF THINNING WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP UP WILL SEE THIS AXIS OF CLOUDS FINALLY
SHIFT EAST...EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING PER LATEST
GFS CLOUD FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE
CLEARING BETWEEN THE EXITING OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUS WENT BELOW MOS TEMPS GIVEN A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.

STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PIVOTS EAST MONDAY ALLOWING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO WORK EAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN AXIS OF LIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY WORKING ACROSS THE CWA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. CONCERNS REMAIN WITH TIMING AND THE DEGREE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING THAT COULD OCCUR...AND JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE
ABLE TO BE GENERATED AS MOISTURE WORKS INTO LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE OFFSHORE LOW. LATEST GFS REMAINS THE WETTEST WITH OVER A QUARTER
INCH LIQUID OVER THE NORTH/WEST WHILE THE NAM QUITE DRY AND THE
SREF/12Z EC IN THE MIDDLE. SINCE THERE IS SOME GOOD BACKING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND A RATHER STRONG BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT...THINK
THERE COULD BE A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD IF ARRIVAL
IS AS FAST AS THE GFS. ELSEWHERE MAY SEE PRECIP START AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOSTLY LIQUID HEADING EAST
EXCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY
CTYS AND SKYLINE DRIVE WHERE MORE SNOW POSSIBLE UP TOP.

THEREFORE TRENDING POPS WITH A BAND OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WORKING
EAST...REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...AND THE PIEDMONT
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED TOO MUCH WARMING DOESN`T OCCUR AND THE
BAND STAYS TOGETHER CROSSING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FAR WEST TO UP TO AN INCH OUT TO PARTS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND LITTLE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN AMOUNTS BASICALLY NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPE COUNTIES FOR MONDAY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S OR WARMER EAST GIVEN WARM
ADVECTION...WHILE PERHAPS GETTING STUCK IN THE LOW/MID 30S FAR WEST IF
PRECIP IS FASTER. THIS SUPPORTS RUNNING WITH A BLEND WHILE NUDGING
VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS SHOWING NEXT SURGES OF COLDER AIR COMING IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 700 MB...THEREFORE RESULTING GIN SNOW
SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL LULLS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
ANTICIPATE MORE TIME WITH PRECIPITATION THAN WITHOUT. MORE
QUESTIONABLE IS WHEN AND HOW FAR EAST BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRIME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WILL TREND
TOWARD AT LEAST SOME PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NEARLY
AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ALSO ENHANCING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HYSPLIT TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GFS SHOWED
BETWEEN AIR 2000 AND 300 FEET AGL MAY BE PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA...SINCE TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. PLUS...ENOUGH COLD
AIR...COMBINED WITH MODERATE WINDS...TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WIND
CHILL VALUES. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER WEST FACING
SLOPES AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAYED AS COLD OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST SUNDAY...

CLOSED 500 MB LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BUT HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE REGION. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MORE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING VARIATIONS OF A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDING WELL
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.
WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY THAT IS ASSOCIATION WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. BUT AT THAT TIME
FRAME...LOCATION AND TIMING ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY...

STILL DEALING WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY FROM THE DEEP
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL PULL NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO OCCUR THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT THE BACK EDGE
TO REACH THE KDAN/KLYH AREA BY 06Z. AT ANY RATES...CIGS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 10KFT.

OVERNIGHT...THE CWA SHOULD GENERALLY BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND A DEEP UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...DEEPER ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SHOULD NOT REACH THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AFTER DAYBREAK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SO LARGELY...ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY KBLF-KLYH AND KBCB IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH -SN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT...TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IT MAY
LARGELY BE RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE CARRIED ONLY -RA FOR
KDAN...WITH A -RASN MIX KLYH/KROA...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
THERE. KBCB SHOULD SEE MOSTLY -SN...BUT SOME -RA POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET. THE INITIAL BAND OF FRONTAL FORCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT...AND WITH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY END EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT -SHSN
SHOULD COMMENCE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS WITH MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO
IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A NNW WIND WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS. TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WINDS IN THE WEST SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW 5-7KTS AND
THIS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. BY EVENING...WINDS WILL
BECOME WSW-WNW 7-10KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA AS
IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO
OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012-015-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042-043-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 080021
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL THEN RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER EVENT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SUNDAY...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS HAS CONTINUED TO FAN A DEFORMATION
MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT FINALLY
SEEING SIGNS OF THINNING WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP UP WILL SEE THIS AXIS OF CLOUDS FINALLY
SHIFT EAST...EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING PER LATEST
GFS CLOUD FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE
CLEARING BETWEEN THE EXITING OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUS WENT BELOW MOS TEMPS GIVEN A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.

STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PIVOTS EAST MONDAY ALLOWING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO WORK EAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN AXIS OF LIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY WORKING ACROSS THE CWA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. CONCERNS REMAIN WITH TIMING AND THE DEGREE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING THAT COULD OCCUR...AND JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE
ABLE TO BE GENERATED AS MOISTURE WORKS INTO LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE OFFSHORE LOW. LATEST GFS REMAINS THE WETTEST WITH OVER A QUARTER
INCH LIQUID OVER THE NORTH/WEST WHILE THE NAM QUITE DRY AND THE
SREF/12Z EC IN THE MIDDLE. SINCE THERE IS SOME GOOD BACKING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND A RATHER STRONG BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT...THINK
THERE COULD BE A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD IF ARRIVAL
IS AS FAST AS THE GFS. ELSEWHERE MAY SEE PRECIP START AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOSTLY LIQUID HEADING EAST
EXCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY
CTYS AND SKYLINE DRIVE WHERE MORE SNOW POSSIBLE UP TOP.

THEREFORE TRENDING POPS WITH A BAND OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WORKING
EAST...REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...AND THE PIEDMONT
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED TOO MUCH WARMING DOESN`T OCCUR AND THE
BAND STAYS TOGETHER CROSSING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FAR WEST TO UP TO AN INCH OUT TO PARTS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND LITTLE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN AMOUNTS BASICALLY NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPE COUNTIES FOR MONDAY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S OR WARMER EAST GIVEN WARM
ADVECTION...WHILE PERHAPS GETTING STUCK IN THE LOW/MID 30S FAR WEST IF
PRECIP IS FASTER. THIS SUPPORTS RUNNING WITH A BLEND WHILE NUDGING
VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS SHOWING NEXT SURGES OF COLDER AIR COMING IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 700 MB...THEREFORE RESULTING GIN SNOW
SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL LULLS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
ANTICIPATE MORE TIME WITH PRECIPITATION THAN WITHOUT. MORE
QUESTIONABLE IS WHEN AND HOW FAR EAST BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRIME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WILL TREND
TOWARD AT LEAST SOME PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NEARLY
AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ALSO ENHANCING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HYSPLIT TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GFS SHOWED
BETWEEN AIR 2000 AND 300 FEET AGL MAY BE PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA...SINCE TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. PLUS...ENOUGH COLD
AIR...COMBINED WITH MODERATE WINDS...TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WIND
CHILL VALUES. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER WEST FACING
SLOPES AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAYED AS COLD OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST SUNDAY...

CLOSED 500 MB LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BUT HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE REGION. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MORE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING VARIATIONS OF A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDING WELL
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.
WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY THAT IS ASSOCIATION WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. BUT AT THAT TIME
FRAME...LOCATION AND TIMING ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY...

STILL DEALING WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY FROM THE DEEP
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL PULL NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO OCCUR THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT THE BACK EDGE
TO REACH THE KDAN/KLYH AREA BY 06Z. AT ANY RATES...CIGS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 10KFT.

OVERNIGHT...THE CWA SHOULD GENERALLY BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND A DEEP UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...DEEPER ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SHOULD NOT REACH THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AFTER DAYBREAK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SO LARGELY...ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY KBLF-KLYH AND KBCB IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH -SN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT...TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IT MAY
LARGELY BE RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE CARRIED ONLY -RA FOR
KDAN...WITH A -RASN MIX KLYH/KROA...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
THERE. KBCB SHOULD SEE MOSTLY -SN...BUT SOME -RA POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET. THE INITIAL BAND OF FRONTAL FORCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT...AND WITH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY END EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT -SHSN
SHOULD COMMENCE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS WITH MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO
IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A NNW WIND WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS. TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WINDS IN THE WEST SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW 5-7KTS AND
THIS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. BY EVENING...WINDS WILL
BECOME WSW-WNW 7-10KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCETHROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA AS
IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO
OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012-015-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042-043-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 080021
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL THEN RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER EVENT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SUNDAY...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS HAS CONTINUED TO FAN A DEFORMATION
MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT FINALLY
SEEING SIGNS OF THINNING WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP UP WILL SEE THIS AXIS OF CLOUDS FINALLY
SHIFT EAST...EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING PER LATEST
GFS CLOUD FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE
CLEARING BETWEEN THE EXITING OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUS WENT BELOW MOS TEMPS GIVEN A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.

STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PIVOTS EAST MONDAY ALLOWING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO WORK EAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN AXIS OF LIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY WORKING ACROSS THE CWA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. CONCERNS REMAIN WITH TIMING AND THE DEGREE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING THAT COULD OCCUR...AND JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE
ABLE TO BE GENERATED AS MOISTURE WORKS INTO LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE OFFSHORE LOW. LATEST GFS REMAINS THE WETTEST WITH OVER A QUARTER
INCH LIQUID OVER THE NORTH/WEST WHILE THE NAM QUITE DRY AND THE
SREF/12Z EC IN THE MIDDLE. SINCE THERE IS SOME GOOD BACKING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND A RATHER STRONG BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT...THINK
THERE COULD BE A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD IF ARRIVAL
IS AS FAST AS THE GFS. ELSEWHERE MAY SEE PRECIP START AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOSTLY LIQUID HEADING EAST
EXCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY
CTYS AND SKYLINE DRIVE WHERE MORE SNOW POSSIBLE UP TOP.

THEREFORE TRENDING POPS WITH A BAND OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WORKING
EAST...REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...AND THE PIEDMONT
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED TOO MUCH WARMING DOESN`T OCCUR AND THE
BAND STAYS TOGETHER CROSSING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FAR WEST TO UP TO AN INCH OUT TO PARTS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND LITTLE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN AMOUNTS BASICALLY NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPE COUNTIES FOR MONDAY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S OR WARMER EAST GIVEN WARM
ADVECTION...WHILE PERHAPS GETTING STUCK IN THE LOW/MID 30S FAR WEST IF
PRECIP IS FASTER. THIS SUPPORTS RUNNING WITH A BLEND WHILE NUDGING
VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS SHOWING NEXT SURGES OF COLDER AIR COMING IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 700 MB...THEREFORE RESULTING GIN SNOW
SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL LULLS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
ANTICIPATE MORE TIME WITH PRECIPITATION THAN WITHOUT. MORE
QUESTIONABLE IS WHEN AND HOW FAR EAST BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRIME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WILL TREND
TOWARD AT LEAST SOME PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NEARLY
AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ALSO ENHANCING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HYSPLIT TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GFS SHOWED
BETWEEN AIR 2000 AND 300 FEET AGL MAY BE PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA...SINCE TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. PLUS...ENOUGH COLD
AIR...COMBINED WITH MODERATE WINDS...TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WIND
CHILL VALUES. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER WEST FACING
SLOPES AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAYED AS COLD OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST SUNDAY...

CLOSED 500 MB LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BUT HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE REGION. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MORE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING VARIATIONS OF A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDING WELL
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.
WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY THAT IS ASSOCIATION WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. BUT AT THAT TIME
FRAME...LOCATION AND TIMING ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY...

STILL DEALING WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY FROM THE DEEP
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL PULL NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO OCCUR THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT THE BACK EDGE
TO REACH THE KDAN/KLYH AREA BY 06Z. AT ANY RATES...CIGS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 10KFT.

OVERNIGHT...THE CWA SHOULD GENERALLY BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND A DEEP UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...DEEPER ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SHOULD NOT REACH THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AFTER DAYBREAK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SO LARGELY...ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY KBLF-KLYH AND KBCB IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH -SN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT...TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IT MAY
LARGELY BE RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE CARRIED ONLY -RA FOR
KDAN...WITH A -RASN MIX KLYH/KROA...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
THERE. KBCB SHOULD SEE MOSTLY -SN...BUT SOME -RA POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET. THE INITIAL BAND OF FRONTAL FORCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT...AND WITH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY END EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT -SHSN
SHOULD COMMENCE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS WITH MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO
IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A NNW WIND WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS. TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WINDS IN THE WEST SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW 5-7KTS AND
THIS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. BY EVENING...WINDS WILL
BECOME WSW-WNW 7-10KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCETHROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA AS
IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO
OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012-015-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042-043-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 072043
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL THEN RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER EVENT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SUNDAY...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS HAS CONTINUED TO FAN A DEFORMATION
MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT FINALLY
SEEING SIGNS OF THINNING WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP UP WILL SEE THIS AXIS OF CLOUDS FINALLY
SHIFT EAST...EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING PER LATEST
GFS CLOUD FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE
CLEARING BETWEEN THE EXITING OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUS WENT BELOW MOS TEMPS GIVEN A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.

STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PIVOTS EAST MONDAY ALLOWING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO WORK EAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN AXIS OF LIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY WORKING ACROSS THE CWA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. CONCERNS REMAIN WITH TIMING AND THE DEGREE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING THAT COULD OCCUR...AND JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE
ABLE TO BE GENERATED AS MOISTURE WORKS INTO LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE OFFSHORE LOW. LATEST GFS REMAINS THE WETTEST WITH OVER A QUARTER
INCH LIQUID OVER THE NORTH/WEST WHILE THE NAM QUITE DRY AND THE
SREF/12Z EC IN THE MIDDLE. SINCE THERE IS SOME GOOD BACKING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND A RATHER STRONG BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT...THINK
THERE COULD BE A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD IF ARRIVAL
IS AS FAST AS THE GFS. ELSEWHERE MAY SEE PRECIP START AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOSTLY LIQUID HEADING EAST
EXCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY
CTYS AND SKYLINE DRIVE WHERE MORE SNOW POSSIBLE UP TOP.

THEREFORE TRENDING POPS WITH A BAND OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WORKING
EAST...REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...AND THE PIEDMONT
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED TOO MUCH WARMING DOESN`T OCCUR AND THE
BAND STAYS TOGETHER CROSSING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FAR WEST TO UP TO AN INCH OUT TO PARTS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND LITTLE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN AMOUNTS BASICALLY NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPE COUNTIES FOR MONDAY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S OR WARMER EAST GIVEN WARM
ADVECTION...WHILE PERHAPS GETTING STUCK IN THE LOW/MID 30S FAR WEST IF
PRECIP IS FASTER. THIS SUPPORTS RUNNING WITH A BLEND WHILE NUDGING
VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS OUT EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS SHOWING NEXT SURGES OF COLDER AIR COMING IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 700 MB...THEREFORE RESULTING GIN SNOW
SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL LULLS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
ANTICIPATE MORE TIME WITH PRECIPITATION THAN WITHOUT. MORE
QUESTIONABLE IS WHEN AND HOW FAR EAST BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRIME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WILL TREND
TOWARD AT LEAST SOME PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NEARLY
AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ALSO ENHANCING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HYSPLIT TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GFS SHOWED
BETWEEN AIR 2000 AND 300 FEET AGL MAY BE PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA...SINCE TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. PLUS...ENOUGH COLD
AIR...COMBINED WITH MODERATE WINDS...TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WIND
CHILL VALUES. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER WEST FACING
SLOPES AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAYED AS COLD OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST SUNDAY...

CLOSED 500 MB LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BUT HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE REGION. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MORE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING VARIATIONS OF A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDING WELL
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.
WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY THAT IS ASSOCIATION WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. BUT AT THAT TIME
FRAME...LOCATION AND TIMING ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1212 PM EST SUNDAY...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINAS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING EAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING CIGS
TO REMAIN VFR WITH MOST BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS AT TIMES.

SHOULD GET IN BETWEEN THE EXITING OFFSHORE LOW TONIGHT AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID DECK ARRIVES OVER THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE NEARING
KBLF/KLWB BY 12Z/7AM MONDAY WITH PERHAPS THE ONSET OF MVFR VSBYS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER PENDING TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER THINK
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH MOSTLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE EAST.

LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF SNOW/RAIN
LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF AN INITIAL
COLD FRONT DURING MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR SE WEST VA SITES AND MVFR OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND
MIDDAY. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW ALSO AT KBLF/KLWB
DURING THE MORNING WITH THIS PRECIP AND LOWER VSBYS SPREADING OUT
TOWARD KBCB/KROA BY MIDDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST MAINLY AFTER THE VALID TAF PERIOD ON MONDAY BUT EXPECT A
BREAK FROM SUB-VFR ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO VFR CIGS OUT
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA AS
IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO
OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012-015-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042-043-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 071727
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1227 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL THEN RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER
EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS DON`T SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. INCREASED SKY COVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER THE NRV AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TREND. CURRENT OBS ARE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NASH
AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES IN NC...BUT STILL THINKING ITS TOO DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE SURFACE SO
DIDN`T ADJUST THE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES.

AS OF 515 AM EST SUNDAY...

DEVELOPING STORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE COAST AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA PER VERY DRY AIRMASS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB...AWAITING TO SWALLOW ANYTHING
THAT TRIES TO REACH THIS FAR NORTHWEST. ALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE
THIS SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...DEEPENING TO A 980 MB LOW AS IT PASSES WELL OFF THE VA
COAST MONDAY MORNING...A WINTERCANE IN THE MAKING.

PART OF THE REASON WHY THE COASTAL SYSTEM IS NOT GOING ANY
FARTHER INLAND IS THE RESULT OF A KICKER TROUGH WHICH IS RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS GIVING THE
COASTAL SYSTEM A BOOT TO THE EAST. THAT SAID...MOST OF OUR
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL HINGE ON IMPACT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE ARCTIC INTERLUDE THAT IT
BRINGS WITH IT BEGINNING MONDAY.

UNTIL THE THE ARRIVAL OF MONDAYS ARCTIC FRONT OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS KEEPING OUR FORECAST FAIR/DRY
THROUGH 12Z/7AM MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A VEIL OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 SHAVED AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES OFF OF MAV MOS WITH THE THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE WHERE THE THICKER CLOUDS PERSIST. WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN AND AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH FULL
INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE WEST PER THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 0700 MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE COASTAL LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO
GENERATE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE ON
MONDAY. DECREASED POPS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING IN THE EAST AND SPREAD
MOISTURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH MORE SNOW IN WEST AND RAIN IN THE EAST. FOR
EXAMPLE...LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT MIGHT START AS SNOW FLURRIES
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FLURRIES BY MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP. USED A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL...MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL HINDER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COLD
AIR COMING IN...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL KICK IN
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE
PIEDMONT. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MAY APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY COULD RANGE FROM A COATING TO AROUND 5
INCHES IN NORTHWEST GREENBRIER COUNTY. WITH A LATER ONSET TIME...AND
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SNOW
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROLONG NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT.  WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TUESDAY...IN THE HWO.

ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONE TO THERE INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE WEST MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILL READINGS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... MAY BE AS COLD AS THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AND WIND CHILLS IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND CHILL
THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH ARE DIFFERENT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BY SATURDAY REMAIN
IN QUESTION. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1212 PM EST SUNDAY...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINAS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING EAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING CIGS
TO REMAIN VFR WITH MOST BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS AT TIMES.

SHOULD GET IN BETWEEN THE EXITING OFFSHORE LOW TONIGHT AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID DECK ARRIVES OVER THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE NEARING
KBLF/KLWB BY 12Z/7AM MONDAY WITH PERHAPS THE ONSET OF MVFR VSBYS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER PENDING TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER THINK
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH MOSTLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE EAST.

LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF SNOW/RAIN
LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF AN INITIAL
COLD FRONT DURING MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR SE WEST VA SITES AND MVFR OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND
MIDDAY. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW ALSO AT KBLF/KLWB
DURING THE MORNING WITH THIS PRECIP AND LOWER VSBYS SPREADING OUT
TOWARD KBCB/KROA BY MIDDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST MAINLY AFTER THE VALID TAF PERIOD ON MONDAY BUT EXPECT A
BREAK FROM SUB-VFR ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO VFR CIGS OUT
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA AS
IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO
OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/PW
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 071727
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1227 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL THEN RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER
EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS DON`T SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. INCREASED SKY COVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER THE NRV AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TREND. CURRENT OBS ARE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NASH
AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES IN NC...BUT STILL THINKING ITS TOO DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE SURFACE SO
DIDN`T ADJUST THE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES.

AS OF 515 AM EST SUNDAY...

DEVELOPING STORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE COAST AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA PER VERY DRY AIRMASS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB...AWAITING TO SWALLOW ANYTHING
THAT TRIES TO REACH THIS FAR NORTHWEST. ALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE
THIS SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...DEEPENING TO A 980 MB LOW AS IT PASSES WELL OFF THE VA
COAST MONDAY MORNING...A WINTERCANE IN THE MAKING.

PART OF THE REASON WHY THE COASTAL SYSTEM IS NOT GOING ANY
FARTHER INLAND IS THE RESULT OF A KICKER TROUGH WHICH IS RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS GIVING THE
COASTAL SYSTEM A BOOT TO THE EAST. THAT SAID...MOST OF OUR
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL HINGE ON IMPACT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE ARCTIC INTERLUDE THAT IT
BRINGS WITH IT BEGINNING MONDAY.

UNTIL THE THE ARRIVAL OF MONDAYS ARCTIC FRONT OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS KEEPING OUR FORECAST FAIR/DRY
THROUGH 12Z/7AM MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A VEIL OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 SHAVED AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES OFF OF MAV MOS WITH THE THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE WHERE THE THICKER CLOUDS PERSIST. WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN AND AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH FULL
INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE WEST PER THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 0700 MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE COASTAL LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO
GENERATE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE ON
MONDAY. DECREASED POPS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING IN THE EAST AND SPREAD
MOISTURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH MORE SNOW IN WEST AND RAIN IN THE EAST. FOR
EXAMPLE...LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT MIGHT START AS SNOW FLURRIES
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FLURRIES BY MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP. USED A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL...MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL HINDER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COLD
AIR COMING IN...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL KICK IN
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE
PIEDMONT. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MAY APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY COULD RANGE FROM A COATING TO AROUND 5
INCHES IN NORTHWEST GREENBRIER COUNTY. WITH A LATER ONSET TIME...AND
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SNOW
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROLONG NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT.  WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TUESDAY...IN THE HWO.

ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONE TO THERE INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE WEST MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILL READINGS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... MAY BE AS COLD AS THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AND WIND CHILLS IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND CHILL
THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH ARE DIFFERENT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BY SATURDAY REMAIN
IN QUESTION. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1212 PM EST SUNDAY...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINAS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING EAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING CIGS
TO REMAIN VFR WITH MOST BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS AT TIMES.

SHOULD GET IN BETWEEN THE EXITING OFFSHORE LOW TONIGHT AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID DECK ARRIVES OVER THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE NEARING
KBLF/KLWB BY 12Z/7AM MONDAY WITH PERHAPS THE ONSET OF MVFR VSBYS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER PENDING TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER THINK
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH MOSTLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE EAST.

LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF SNOW/RAIN
LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF AN INITIAL
COLD FRONT DURING MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR SE WEST VA SITES AND MVFR OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND
MIDDAY. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW ALSO AT KBLF/KLWB
DURING THE MORNING WITH THIS PRECIP AND LOWER VSBYS SPREADING OUT
TOWARD KBCB/KROA BY MIDDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST MAINLY AFTER THE VALID TAF PERIOD ON MONDAY BUT EXPECT A
BREAK FROM SUB-VFR ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO VFR CIGS OUT
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA AS
IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO
OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/PW
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 071727
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1227 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL THEN RESULT IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER
EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS DON`T SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. INCREASED SKY COVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER THE NRV AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TREND. CURRENT OBS ARE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NASH
AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES IN NC...BUT STILL THINKING ITS TOO DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE SURFACE SO
DIDN`T ADJUST THE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES.

AS OF 515 AM EST SUNDAY...

DEVELOPING STORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE COAST AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA PER VERY DRY AIRMASS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB...AWAITING TO SWALLOW ANYTHING
THAT TRIES TO REACH THIS FAR NORTHWEST. ALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE
THIS SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...DEEPENING TO A 980 MB LOW AS IT PASSES WELL OFF THE VA
COAST MONDAY MORNING...A WINTERCANE IN THE MAKING.

PART OF THE REASON WHY THE COASTAL SYSTEM IS NOT GOING ANY
FARTHER INLAND IS THE RESULT OF A KICKER TROUGH WHICH IS RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS GIVING THE
COASTAL SYSTEM A BOOT TO THE EAST. THAT SAID...MOST OF OUR
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL HINGE ON IMPACT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE ARCTIC INTERLUDE THAT IT
BRINGS WITH IT BEGINNING MONDAY.

UNTIL THE THE ARRIVAL OF MONDAYS ARCTIC FRONT OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS KEEPING OUR FORECAST FAIR/DRY
THROUGH 12Z/7AM MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A VEIL OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 SHAVED AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES OFF OF MAV MOS WITH THE THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE WHERE THE THICKER CLOUDS PERSIST. WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN AND AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH FULL
INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE WEST PER THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 0700 MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE COASTAL LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO
GENERATE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE ON
MONDAY. DECREASED POPS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING IN THE EAST AND SPREAD
MOISTURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH MORE SNOW IN WEST AND RAIN IN THE EAST. FOR
EXAMPLE...LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT MIGHT START AS SNOW FLURRIES
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FLURRIES BY MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP. USED A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL...MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL HINDER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COLD
AIR COMING IN...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL KICK IN
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE
PIEDMONT. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MAY APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY COULD RANGE FROM A COATING TO AROUND 5
INCHES IN NORTHWEST GREENBRIER COUNTY. WITH A LATER ONSET TIME...AND
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SNOW
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROLONG NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT.  WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TUESDAY...IN THE HWO.

ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONE TO THERE INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE WEST MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILL READINGS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... MAY BE AS COLD AS THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AND WIND CHILLS IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND CHILL
THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH ARE DIFFERENT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BY SATURDAY REMAIN
IN QUESTION. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1212 PM EST SUNDAY...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINAS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING EAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING CIGS
TO REMAIN VFR WITH MOST BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS AT TIMES.

SHOULD GET IN BETWEEN THE EXITING OFFSHORE LOW TONIGHT AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID DECK ARRIVES OVER THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE NEARING
KBLF/KLWB BY 12Z/7AM MONDAY WITH PERHAPS THE ONSET OF MVFR VSBYS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER PENDING TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER THINK
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH MOSTLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE EAST.

LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF SNOW/RAIN
LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF AN INITIAL
COLD FRONT DURING MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR SE WEST VA SITES AND MVFR OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND
MIDDAY. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW ALSO AT KBLF/KLWB
DURING THE MORNING WITH THIS PRECIP AND LOWER VSBYS SPREADING OUT
TOWARD KBCB/KROA BY MIDDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST MAINLY AFTER THE VALID TAF PERIOD ON MONDAY BUT EXPECT A
BREAK FROM SUB-VFR ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO VFR CIGS OUT
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA AS
IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO
OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/PW
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 071431
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
931 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
REMAINING EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WE WILL
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH FAIR/DRY WEATHER.
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING ONSET OF MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE BITTER COLD
WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A MULTIDAY SNOW EVENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS DON`T SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. INCREASED SKY COVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER THE NRV AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TREND. CURRENT OBS ARE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NASH
AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES IN NC...BUT STILL THINKING ITS TOO DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE SURFACE SO
DIDN`T ADJUST THE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES.

AS OF 515 AM EST SUNDAY...

DEVELOPING STORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE COAST AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA PER VERY DRY AIRMASS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB...AWAITING TO SWALLOW ANYTHING
THAT TRIES TO REACH THIS FAR NORTHWEST. ALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE
THIS SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...DEEPENING TO A 980 MB LOW AS IT PASSES WELL OFF THE VA
COAST MONDAY MORNING...A WINTERCANE IN THE MAKING.

PART OF THE REASON WHY THE COASTAL SYSTEM IS NOT GOING ANY
FARTHER INLAND IS THE RESULT OF A KICKER TROUGH WHICH IS RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS GIVING THE
COASTAL SYSTEM A BOOT TO THE EAST. THAT SAID...MOST OF OUR
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL HINGE ON IMPACT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE ARCTIC INTERLUDE THAT IT
BRINGS WITH IT BEGINNING MONDAY.

UNTIL THE THE ARRIVAL OF MONDAYS ARCTIC FRONT OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS KEEPING OUR FORECAST FAIR/DRY
THROUGH 12Z/7AM MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A VEIL OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 SHAVED AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES OFF OF MAV MOS WITH THE THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE WHERE THE THICKER CLOUDS PERSIST. WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN AND AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH FULL
INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE WEST PER THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 0700 MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE COASTAL LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO
GENERATE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE ON
MONDAY. DECREASED POPS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING IN THE EAST AND SPREAD
MOISTURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH MORE SNOW IN WEST AND RAIN IN THE EAST. FOR
EXAMPLE...LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT MIGHT START AS SNOW FLURRIES
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FLURRIES BY MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP. USED A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL...MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL HINDER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COLD
AIR COMING IN...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL KICK IN
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE
PIEDMONT. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MAY APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY COULD RANGE FROM A COATING TO AROUND 5
INCHES IN NORTHWEST GREENBRIER COUNTY. WITH A LATER ONSET TIME...AND
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SNOW
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROLONG NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT.  WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TUESDAY...IN THE HWO.

ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONE TO THERE INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE WEST MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILL READINGS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... MAY BE AS COLD AS THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AND WIND CHILLS IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND CHILL
THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH ARE DIFFERENT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BY SATURDAY REMAIN
IN QUESTION. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/7AM MONDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING 12Z/7AM MONDAY...THE RNK FORECAST
AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG COASTAL CYCLONE NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN SPITE OF THE POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE STORM WILL RESULT IN SINKING MOTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER BLO 10KFT. AREAS WEST OF KDAN/DANVILLE
WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. FROM KDAN/DANVILLE EAST
THERE WILL BE A SOLID LAYER OF CLOUD ABOVE 10KFT WITH THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION...LOWER CLOUD BASES AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH...AND GUSTY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THE CLOSER YOU GET TO THE COASTAL STORM.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/PW
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 071153
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
653 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
REMAINING EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WE WILL
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH FAIR/DRY WEATHER.
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING ONSET OF MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE BITTER COLD
WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A MULTIDAY SNOW EVENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EST SUNDAY...

DEVELOPING STORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE COAST AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA PER VERY DRY AIRMASS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB...AWAITING TO SWALLOW ANYTHING
THAT TRIES TO REACH THIS FAR NORTHWEST. ALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE
THIS SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...DEEPENING TO A 980 MB LOW AS IT PASSES WELL OFF THE VA
COAST MONDAY MORNING...A WINTERCANE IN THE MAKING.

PART OF THE REASON WHY THE COASTAL SYSTEM IS NOT GOING ANY
FARTHER INLAND IS THE RESULT OF A KICKER TROUGH WHICH IS RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS GIVING THE
COASTAL SYSTEM A BOOT TO THE EAST. THAT SAID...MOST OF OUR
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL HINGE ON IMPACT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE ARCTIC INTERLUDE THAT IT
BRINGS WITH IT BEGINNING MONDAY.

UNTIL THE THE ARRIVAL OF MONDAYS ARCTIC FRONT OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS KEEPING OUR FORECAST FAIR/DRY
THROUGH 12Z/7AM MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A VEIL OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 SHAVED AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES OFF OF MAV MOS WITH THE THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE WHERE THE THICKER CLOUDS PERSIST. WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN AND AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH FULL
INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE WEST PER THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 0700 MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE COASTAL LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO
GENERATE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE ON
MONDAY. DECREASED POPS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING IN THE EAST AND SPREAD
MOISTURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH MORE SNOW IN WEST AND RAIN IN THE EAST. FOR
EXAMPLE...LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT MIGHT START AS SNOW FLURRIES
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FLURRIES BY MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP. USED A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL...MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL HINDER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COLD
AIR COMING IN...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL KICK IN
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE
PIEDMONT. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MAY APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY COULD RANGE FROM A COATING TO AROUND 5
INCHES IN NORTHWEST GREENBRIER COUNTY. WITH A LATER ONSET TIME...AND
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SNOW
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROLONG NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT.  WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TUESDAY...IN THE HWO.

ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONE TO THERE INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE WEST MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILL READINGS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... MAY BE AS COLD AS THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AND WIND CHILLS IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND CHILL
THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH ARE DIFFERENT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BY SATURDAY REMAIN
IN QUESTION. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/7AM MONDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING 12Z/7AM MONDAY...THE RNK FORECAST
AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG COASTAL CYCLONE NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN SPITE OF THE POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE STORM WILL RESULT IN SINKING MOTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER BLO 10KFT. AREAS WEST OF KDAN/DANVILLE
WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. FROM KDAN/DANVILLE EAST
THERE WILL BE A SOLID LAYER OF CLOUD ABOVE 10KFT WITH THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION...LOWER CLOUD BASES AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH...AND GUSTY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THE CLOSER YOU GET TO THE COASTAL STORM.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/PW
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 071153
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
653 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
REMAINING EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WE WILL
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH FAIR/DRY WEATHER.
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING ONSET OF MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE BITTER COLD
WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A MULTIDAY SNOW EVENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EST SUNDAY...

DEVELOPING STORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE COAST AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA PER VERY DRY AIRMASS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB...AWAITING TO SWALLOW ANYTHING
THAT TRIES TO REACH THIS FAR NORTHWEST. ALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE
THIS SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...DEEPENING TO A 980 MB LOW AS IT PASSES WELL OFF THE VA
COAST MONDAY MORNING...A WINTERCANE IN THE MAKING.

PART OF THE REASON WHY THE COASTAL SYSTEM IS NOT GOING ANY
FARTHER INLAND IS THE RESULT OF A KICKER TROUGH WHICH IS RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS GIVING THE
COASTAL SYSTEM A BOOT TO THE EAST. THAT SAID...MOST OF OUR
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL HINGE ON IMPACT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE ARCTIC INTERLUDE THAT IT
BRINGS WITH IT BEGINNING MONDAY.

UNTIL THE THE ARRIVAL OF MONDAYS ARCTIC FRONT OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS KEEPING OUR FORECAST FAIR/DRY
THROUGH 12Z/7AM MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A VEIL OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 SHAVED AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES OFF OF MAV MOS WITH THE THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE WHERE THE THICKER CLOUDS PERSIST. WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN AND AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH FULL
INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE WEST PER THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 0700 MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE COASTAL LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO
GENERATE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE ON
MONDAY. DECREASED POPS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING IN THE EAST AND SPREAD
MOISTURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH MORE SNOW IN WEST AND RAIN IN THE EAST. FOR
EXAMPLE...LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT MIGHT START AS SNOW FLURRIES
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FLURRIES BY MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP. USED A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL...MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL HINDER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COLD
AIR COMING IN...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL KICK IN
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE
PIEDMONT. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MAY APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY COULD RANGE FROM A COATING TO AROUND 5
INCHES IN NORTHWEST GREENBRIER COUNTY. WITH A LATER ONSET TIME...AND
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SNOW
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROLONG NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT.  WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TUESDAY...IN THE HWO.

ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONE TO THERE INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE WEST MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILL READINGS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... MAY BE AS COLD AS THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AND WIND CHILLS IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND CHILL
THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH ARE DIFFERENT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BY SATURDAY REMAIN
IN QUESTION. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/7AM MONDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING 12Z/7AM MONDAY...THE RNK FORECAST
AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG COASTAL CYCLONE NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN SPITE OF THE POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE STORM WILL RESULT IN SINKING MOTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER BLO 10KFT. AREAS WEST OF KDAN/DANVILLE
WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. FROM KDAN/DANVILLE EAST
THERE WILL BE A SOLID LAYER OF CLOUD ABOVE 10KFT WITH THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION...LOWER CLOUD BASES AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH...AND GUSTY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THE CLOSER YOU GET TO THE COASTAL STORM.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/PW
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 071024
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
524 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
REMAINING EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WE WILL
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH FAIR/DRY WEATHER.
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING ONSET OF MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE BITTER COLD
WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A MULTIDAY SNOW EVENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EST SUNDAY...

DEVELOPING STORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE COAST AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA PER VERY DRY AIRMASS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB...AWAITING TO SWALLOW ANYTHING
THAT TRIES TO REACH THIS FAR NORTHWEST. ALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE
THIS SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...DEEPENING TO A 980 MB LOW AS IT PASSES WELL OFF THE VA
COAST MONDAY MORNING...A WINTERCANE IN THE MAKING.

PART OF THE REASON WHY THE COASTAL SYSTEM IS NOT GOING ANY
FARTHER INLAND IS THE RESULT OF A KICKER TROUGH WHICH IS RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS GIVING THE
COASTAL SYSTEM A BOOT TO THE EAST. THAT SAID...MOST OF OUR
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL HINGE ON IMPACT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE ARCTIC INTERLUDE THAT IT
BRINGS WITH IT BEGINNING MONDAY.

UNTIL THE THE ARRIVAL OF MONDAYS ARCTIC FRONT OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS KEEPING OUR FORECAST FAIR/DRY
THROUGH 12Z/7AM MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A VEIL OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 SHAVED AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES OFF OF MAV MOS WITH THE THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE WHERE THE THICKER CLOUDS PERSIST. WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN AND AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH FULL
INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE WEST PER THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 0700 MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE COASTAL LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO
GENERATE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE ON
MONDAY. DECREASED POPS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING IN THE EAST AND SPREAD
MOISTURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH MORE SNOW IN WEST AND RAIN IN THE EAST. FOR
EXAMPLE...LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT MIGHT START AS SNOW FLURRIES
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FLURRIES BY MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP. USED A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL...MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL HINDER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COLD
AIR COMING IN...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL KICK IN
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE
PIEDMONT. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MAY APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY COULD RANGE FROM A COATING TO AROUND 5
INCHES IN NORTHWEST GREENBRIER COUNTY. WITH A LATER ONSET TIME...AND
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SNOW
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROLONG NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT.  WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TUESDAY...IN THE HWO.

ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONE TO THERE INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE WEST MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILL READINGS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... MAY BE AS COLD AS THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AND WIND CHILLS IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND CHILL
THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH ARE DIFFERENT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BY SATURDAY REMAIN
IN QUESTION. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
MUCH BELOW 10KFT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF
SITES. TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS
WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARD THE NNW-NW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE EAST...POTENTIAL
FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 070457
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1157 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST SATURDAY...

JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE IN THIS PACKAGE. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT IR OBSERVATIONS. FURTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE VALUES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR...AND
BASED ON THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK MAINLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY VALID DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST WITH
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO
PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW
FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW JUST TO THE SE
THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER OF THE
PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
LATE. SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF
UP CLOUDS SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER
TRENDS. OTRW WILL RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS
COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.

SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
MUCH BELOW 10KFT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF
SITES. TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS
WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARD THE NNW-NW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE EAST...POTENTIAL
FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/JM/MBS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 070457
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1157 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST SATURDAY...

JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE IN THIS PACKAGE. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT IR OBSERVATIONS. FURTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE VALUES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR...AND
BASED ON THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK MAINLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY VALID DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST WITH
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO
PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW
FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW JUST TO THE SE
THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER OF THE
PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
LATE. SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF
UP CLOUDS SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER
TRENDS. OTRW WILL RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS
COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.

SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
MUCH BELOW 10KFT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF
SITES. TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS
WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARD THE NNW-NW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE EAST...POTENTIAL
FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/JM/MBS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 070457
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1157 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST SATURDAY...

JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE IN THIS PACKAGE. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT IR OBSERVATIONS. FURTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE VALUES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR...AND
BASED ON THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK MAINLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY VALID DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST WITH
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO
PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW
FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW JUST TO THE SE
THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER OF THE
PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
LATE. SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF
UP CLOUDS SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER
TRENDS. OTRW WILL RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS
COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.

SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
MUCH BELOW 10KFT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF
SITES. TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS
WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARD THE NNW-NW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE EAST...POTENTIAL
FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/JM/MBS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 070243
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
943 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST SATURDAY...

JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE IN THIS PACKAGE. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT IR OBSERVATIONS. FURTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE VALUES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR...AND
BASED ON THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK MAINLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY VALID DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST WITH
A RAPIDLY DEEPINING SURFACE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO
PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW
FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW JUST TO THE SE
THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER OF THE
PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
LATE. SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF
UP CLOUDS SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER
TRENDS. OTRW WILL RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS
COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.

SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
100 ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF SITES. TO THE
WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE
EAST...POTENTIAL FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/JM/MBS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 070243
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
943 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST SATURDAY...

JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE IN THIS PACKAGE. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT IR OBSERVATIONS. FURTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE VALUES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR...AND
BASED ON THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK MAINLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY VALID DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST WITH
A RAPIDLY DEEPINING SURFACE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO
PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW
FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW JUST TO THE SE
THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER OF THE
PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
LATE. SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF
UP CLOUDS SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER
TRENDS. OTRW WILL RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS
COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.

SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
100 ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF SITES. TO THE
WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE
EAST...POTENTIAL FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/JM/MBS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 070010
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY TONIGHT LOOKS TO HEAD
EAST AND QUICKLY HELP DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS
IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW
JUST TO THE SE THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER
OF THE PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE.
SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF UP CLOUDS
SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER TRENDS. OTRW WILL
RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON
THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH
STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.

SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
100 ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF SITES. TO THE
WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE
EAST...POTENTIAL FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 070010
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY TONIGHT LOOKS TO HEAD
EAST AND QUICKLY HELP DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS
IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW
JUST TO THE SE THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER
OF THE PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE.
SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF UP CLOUDS
SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER TRENDS. OTRW WILL
RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON
THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH
STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.

SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
100 ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF SITES. TO THE
WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE
EAST...POTENTIAL FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 070010
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY TONIGHT LOOKS TO HEAD
EAST AND QUICKLY HELP DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS
IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW
JUST TO THE SE THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER
OF THE PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE.
SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF UP CLOUDS
SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER TRENDS. OTRW WILL
RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON
THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH
STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.

SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
100 ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF SITES. TO THE
WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE
EAST...POTENTIAL FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 061956
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY TONIGHT LOOKS TO HEAD
EAST AND QUICKLY HELP DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS
IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW
JUST TO THE SE THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER
OF THE PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE.
SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF UP CLOUDS
SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER TRENDS. OTRW WILL
RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON
THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH
STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.

SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PRIMARILY A MIX OF SCATTERED MID
DECK AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS ABOVE.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH WITH MOST PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF KDAN THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER CIGS WILL LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BUT ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS ON SUNDAY PENDING JUST HOW FAR
INLAND A LOBE OF PROGGED DEEPER MOISTURE GETS. ELSEWHERE...MORE OF
A HIGH/MID CANOPY CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET. LIGHT WEST TO SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO TURN NORTHERLY BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND INCREASE OVER THE EAST WHERE GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS COULD
OCCUR ESPCLY AROUND KDAN.

UPPER LOW TO THE NW WILL BE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW OFFSHORE AND THIS SYSTEM UNTIL
LATE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE WESTERN SLOPE
AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE VFR.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 061649
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...

MAIN CONCERN WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEGREE OF
SHEARED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THAT LATEST MODELS SHOW
THINNING OUT SOME BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS COLDER
READINGS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH HIGHS ESPCLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MORE OF A LATE DAY FLAVOR WHEN MAY SEE A LITTLE
MORE SUN BREAK THROUGH. THUS HAVE TRENDED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ALTHOUGH GIVEN VERY DRY AIR PER MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WESTERLY
FLOW UNDER SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH INSOLATION
TO PUSH VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FORECAST. STILL APPEARS
OVERALL HIGHS MOSTLY 40S WITH SOME 30S AT ELEVATION WHERE THICKER
CANOPY PERSISTS. CLOUDS MAY BE THIN ENOUGH TO CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERALL INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AT LEAST EARLY ON OVER THE WEST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA LAST NIGHT...REMAINING
VERY THIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING
EXPECTING A REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING. QUESTION IS WHETHER WE
WILL BE AS WARM AS MOS WHICH IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE THICKNESS OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...MODELS SUGGESTING AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OPAQUE WHICH
WILL LIMIT FULL INSOLATION. ATTM HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO COMPARED TO MAV MOS...BUT DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH PER POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS TO BE THINNER THAN FORECAST.

WEATHER MAP SHOWS A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. THE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STREAMING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH IS PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...THUS RESULTING IN A
SWIRL OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST VCNTY OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...THEN
BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM.

MODELS KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH AS FAR INLAND AS THE COLUMBIA SC
TO RALEIGH DURHAM CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IS SMALL ENOUGH NOT
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM. IN THE EVENT THE STORM WERE TO
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN CHANGES WOULD BE NEEDED TO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE. FOR NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THREAT OUT OF OUR CWA...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
ENTERTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

THAT BEING SAID... THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL LIKELY SEE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS...THICKENING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT TEMPERATURE...KEEPING US UNDER
GUIDANCE TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY KEEPING US ABOVE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY MORNING...DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ROTATES EASTWARD MONDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS KICKED TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST
INTO MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND
NORTHEAST OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

THE RICHER MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO NAM AND ECMWF. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTION...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT POPS
FOR SNOW IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
30SALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY EAST ON
MONDAY WITH A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL AREAS TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM A COATING IN THE EAST TO AS
MUCH AS 5 INCHES IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC DAY 3 SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. WILL THE THE MENTION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THE HWO. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PRIMARILY A MIX OF SCATTERED MID
DECK AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS ABOVE.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH WITH MOST PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF KDAN THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER CIGS WILL LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BUT ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS ON SUNDAY PENDING JUST HOW FAR
INLAND A LOBE OF PROGGED DEEPER MOISTURE GETS. ELSEWHERE...MORE OF
A HIGH/MID CANOPY CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET. LIGHT WEST TO SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO TURN NORTHERLY BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND INCREASE OVER THE EAST WHERE GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS COULD
OCCUR ESPCLY AROUND KDAN.

UPPER LOW TO THE NW WILL BE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW OFFSHORE AND THIS SYSTEM UNTIL
LATE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE WESTERN SLOPE
AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE VFR.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 061504
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1004 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...

MAIN CONCERN WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEGREE OF
SHEARED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THAT LATEST MODELS SHOW
THINNING OUT SOME BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS COLDER
READINGS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH HIGHS ESPCLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MORE OF A LATE DAY FLAVOR WHEN MAY SEE A LITTLE
MORE SUN BREAK THROUGH. THUS HAVE TRENDED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ALTHOUGH GIVEN VERY DRY AIR PER MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WESTERLY
FLOW UNDER SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH INSOLATION
TO PUSH VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FORECAST. STILL APPEARS
OVERALL HIGHS MOSTLY 40S WITH SOME 30S AT ELEVATION WHERE THICKER
CANOPY PERSISTS. CLOUDS MAY BE THIN ENOUGH TO CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERALL INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AT LEAST EARLY ON OVER THE WEST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA LAST NIGHT...REMAINING
VERY THIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING
EXPECTING A REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING. QUESTION IS WHETHER WE
WILL BE AS WARM AS MOS WHICH IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE THICKNESS OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...MODELS SUGGESTING AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OPAQUE WHICH
WILL LIMIT FULL INSOLATION. ATTM HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO COMPARED TO MAV MOS...BUT DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH PER POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS TO BE THINNER THAN FORECAST.

WEATHER MAP SHOWS A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. THE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STREAMING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH IS PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...THUS RESULTING IN A
SWIRL OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST VCNTY OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...THEN
BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM.

MODELS KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH AS FAR INLAND AS THE COLUMBIA SC
TO RALEIGH DURHAM CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IS SMALL ENOUGH NOT
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM. IN THE EVENT THE STORM WERE TO
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN CHANGES WOULD BE NEEDED TO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE. FOR NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THREAT OUT OF OUR CWA...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
ENTERTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

THAT BEING SAID... THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL LIKELY SEE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS...THICKENING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT TEMPERATURE...KEEPING US UNDER
GUIDANCE TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY KEEPING US ABOVE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY MORNING...DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ROTATES EASTWARD MONDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS KICKED TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST
INTO MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND
NORTHEAST OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

THE RICHER MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO NAM AND ECMWF. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTION...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT POPS
FOR SNOW IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
30SALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY EAST ON
MONDAY WITH A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL AREAS TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM A COATING IN THE EAST TO AS
MUCH AS 5 INCHES IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC DAY 3 SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. WILL THE THE MENTION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THE HWO. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CLOUD LAYER ABOVE
10KFT...THICKENING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST MAY SPREAD MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. ATTM THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST NOT TO IMPACT
TEMINALS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTIANS. THAT SAID...CLOUD BASES MAY
STILL LOWER UNDER 10KFT VCNTY OF DANVILLE AND GREENSBORO SUNDAY
WITH LOWER CLOUD BASES TO THE EAST AND HIGHER BASES TO THE WEST.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY.

FOR MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING
IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW
CIGS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 061504
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1004 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...

MAIN CONCERN WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEGREE OF
SHEARED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THAT LATEST MODELS SHOW
THINNING OUT SOME BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS COLDER
READINGS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH HIGHS ESPCLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MORE OF A LATE DAY FLAVOR WHEN MAY SEE A LITTLE
MORE SUN BREAK THROUGH. THUS HAVE TRENDED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ALTHOUGH GIVEN VERY DRY AIR PER MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WESTERLY
FLOW UNDER SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH INSOLATION
TO PUSH VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FORECAST. STILL APPEARS
OVERALL HIGHS MOSTLY 40S WITH SOME 30S AT ELEVATION WHERE THICKER
CANOPY PERSISTS. CLOUDS MAY BE THIN ENOUGH TO CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERALL INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AT LEAST EARLY ON OVER THE WEST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA LAST NIGHT...REMAINING
VERY THIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING
EXPECTING A REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING. QUESTION IS WHETHER WE
WILL BE AS WARM AS MOS WHICH IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE THICKNESS OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...MODELS SUGGESTING AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OPAQUE WHICH
WILL LIMIT FULL INSOLATION. ATTM HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO COMPARED TO MAV MOS...BUT DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH PER POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS TO BE THINNER THAN FORECAST.

WEATHER MAP SHOWS A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. THE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STREAMING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH IS PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...THUS RESULTING IN A
SWIRL OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST VCNTY OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...THEN
BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM.

MODELS KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH AS FAR INLAND AS THE COLUMBIA SC
TO RALEIGH DURHAM CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IS SMALL ENOUGH NOT
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM. IN THE EVENT THE STORM WERE TO
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN CHANGES WOULD BE NEEDED TO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE. FOR NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THREAT OUT OF OUR CWA...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
ENTERTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

THAT BEING SAID... THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL LIKELY SEE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS...THICKENING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT TEMPERATURE...KEEPING US UNDER
GUIDANCE TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY KEEPING US ABOVE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY MORNING...DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ROTATES EASTWARD MONDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS KICKED TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST
INTO MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND
NORTHEAST OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

THE RICHER MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO NAM AND ECMWF. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTION...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT POPS
FOR SNOW IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
30SALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY EAST ON
MONDAY WITH A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL AREAS TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM A COATING IN THE EAST TO AS
MUCH AS 5 INCHES IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC DAY 3 SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. WILL THE THE MENTION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THE HWO. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CLOUD LAYER ABOVE
10KFT...THICKENING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST MAY SPREAD MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. ATTM THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST NOT TO IMPACT
TEMINALS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTIANS. THAT SAID...CLOUD BASES MAY
STILL LOWER UNDER 10KFT VCNTY OF DANVILLE AND GREENSBORO SUNDAY
WITH LOWER CLOUD BASES TO THE EAST AND HIGHER BASES TO THE WEST.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY.

FOR MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING
IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW
CIGS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 061504
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1004 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...

MAIN CONCERN WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEGREE OF
SHEARED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THAT LATEST MODELS SHOW
THINNING OUT SOME BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS COLDER
READINGS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH HIGHS ESPCLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MORE OF A LATE DAY FLAVOR WHEN MAY SEE A LITTLE
MORE SUN BREAK THROUGH. THUS HAVE TRENDED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ALTHOUGH GIVEN VERY DRY AIR PER MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WESTERLY
FLOW UNDER SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH INSOLATION
TO PUSH VALUES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FORECAST. STILL APPEARS
OVERALL HIGHS MOSTLY 40S WITH SOME 30S AT ELEVATION WHERE THICKER
CANOPY PERSISTS. CLOUDS MAY BE THIN ENOUGH TO CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERALL INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AT LEAST EARLY ON OVER THE WEST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA LAST NIGHT...REMAINING
VERY THIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING
EXPECTING A REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING. QUESTION IS WHETHER WE
WILL BE AS WARM AS MOS WHICH IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE THICKNESS OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...MODELS SUGGESTING AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OPAQUE WHICH
WILL LIMIT FULL INSOLATION. ATTM HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO COMPARED TO MAV MOS...BUT DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH PER POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS TO BE THINNER THAN FORECAST.

WEATHER MAP SHOWS A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. THE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STREAMING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH IS PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...THUS RESULTING IN A
SWIRL OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST VCNTY OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...THEN
BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM.

MODELS KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH AS FAR INLAND AS THE COLUMBIA SC
TO RALEIGH DURHAM CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IS SMALL ENOUGH NOT
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM. IN THE EVENT THE STORM WERE TO
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN CHANGES WOULD BE NEEDED TO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE. FOR NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THREAT OUT OF OUR CWA...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
ENTERTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

THAT BEING SAID... THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL LIKELY SEE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS...THICKENING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT TEMPERATURE...KEEPING US UNDER
GUIDANCE TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY KEEPING US ABOVE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY MORNING...DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ROTATES EASTWARD MONDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS KICKED TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST
INTO MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND
NORTHEAST OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

THE RICHER MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO NAM AND ECMWF. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTION...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT POPS
FOR SNOW IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
30SALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY EAST ON
MONDAY WITH A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL AREAS TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM A COATING IN THE EAST TO AS
MUCH AS 5 INCHES IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC DAY 3 SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. WILL THE THE MENTION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THE HWO. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CLOUD LAYER ABOVE
10KFT...THICKENING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST MAY SPREAD MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. ATTM THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST NOT TO IMPACT
TEMINALS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTIANS. THAT SAID...CLOUD BASES MAY
STILL LOWER UNDER 10KFT VCNTY OF DANVILLE AND GREENSBORO SUNDAY
WITH LOWER CLOUD BASES TO THE EAST AND HIGHER BASES TO THE WEST.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY.

FOR MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING
IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW
CIGS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 061218
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MID WEST...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SECOND LOW WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA LAST NIGHT...REMAINING
VERY THIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING
EXPECTING A REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING. QUESTION IS WHETHER WE
WILL BE AS WARM AS MOS WHICH IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE THICKNESS OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...MODELS SUGGESTING AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OPAQUE WHICH
WILL LIMIT FULL INSOLATION. ATTM HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO COMPARED TO MAV MOS...BUT DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH PER POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS TO BE THINNER THAN FORECAST.

WEATHER MAP SHOWS A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. THE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STREAMING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH IS PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...THUS RESULTING IN A
SWIRL OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST VCNTY OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...THEN
BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM.

MODELS KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH AS FAR INLAND AS THE COLUMBIA SC
TO RALEIGH DURHAM CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IS SMALL ENOUGH NOT
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM. IN THE EVENT THE STORM WERE TO
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN CHANGES WOULD BE NEEDED TO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE. FOR NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THREAT OUT OF OUR CWA...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
ENTERTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

THAT BEING SAID... THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL LIKELY SEE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS...THICKENING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT TEMPERATURE...KEEPING US UNDER
GUIDANCE TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY KEEPING US ABOVE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY MORNING...DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ROTATES EASTWARD MONDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS KICKED TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST
INTO MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND
NORTHEAST OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

THE RICHER MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO NAM AND ECMWF. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTION...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT POPS
FOR SNOW IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
30SALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY EAST ON
MONDAY WITH A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL AREAS TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM A COATING IN THE EAST TO AS
MUCH AS 5 INCHES IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC DAY 3 SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. WILL THE THE MENTION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THE HWO. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CLOUD LAYER ABOVE
10KFT...THICKENING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST MAY SPREAD MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. ATTM THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST NOT TO IMPACT
TEMINALS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTIANS. THAT SAID...CLOUD BASES MAY
STILL LOWER UNDER 10KFT VCNTY OF DANVILLE AND GREENSBORO SUNDAY
WITH LOWER CLOUD BASES TO THE EAST AND HIGHER BASES TO THE WEST.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY.

FOR MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING
IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW
CIGS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 060953
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
453 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MID WEST...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SECOND LOW WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA LAST NIGHT...REMAINING
VERY THIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING
EXPECTING A REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING. QUESTION IS WHETHER WE
WILL BE AS WARM AS MOS WHICH IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE THICKNESS OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...MODELS SUGGESTING AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OPAQUE WHICH
WILL LIMIT FULL INSOLATION. ATTM HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO COMPARED TO MAV MOS...BUT DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH PER POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS TO BE THINNER THAN FORECAST.

WEATHER MAP SHOWS A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. THE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STREAMING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH IS PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...THUS RESULTING IN A
SWIRL OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST VCNTY OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...THEN
BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM.

MODELS KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH AS FAR INLAND AS THE COLUMBIA SC
TO RALEIGH DURHAM CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IS SMALL ENOUGH NOT
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM. IN THE EVENT THE STORM WERE TO
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN CHANGES WOULD BE NEEDED TO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE. FOR NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THREAT OUT OF OUR CWA...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
ENTERTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

THAT BEING SAID... THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL LIKELY SEE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS...THICKENING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT TEMPERATURE...KEEPING US UNDER
GUIDANCE TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY KEEPING US ABOVE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY MORNING...DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ROTATES EASTWARD MONDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS KICKED TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST
INTO MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND
NORTHEAST OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

THE RICHER MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO NAM AND ECMWF. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTION...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT POPS
FOR SNOW IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
30SALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY EAST ON
MONDAY WITH A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL AREAS TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM A COATING IN THE EAST TO AS
MUCH AS 5 INCHES IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC DAY 3 SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. WILL THE THE MENTION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THE HWO. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH A VERY
DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STATES WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 150 THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE CHAOTIC AND LIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY CALM AT
NIGHT AND VARIABLE 3-6KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IF ANY
TENDENCY IN THE DIRECTION CAN BE ASCERTAINED...IT WOULD BE TOWARD
THE SW-WSW.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...A
STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING.
THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP SUB-VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN KICKS IN. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST
WITH DOWNSLOPE LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO
AREAS FURTHER EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AT TIMES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JM/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 060500
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1200 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EST FRIDAY...

UPDATED GRIDS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS...ONLY CHANGED
OVER NIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO EXPECTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. THERE ARE SOME
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND NORTH WEST REGION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM
CONDITIONS DOMINATING UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS AFD...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH A VERY
DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STATES WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 150 THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE CHAOTIC AND LIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY CALM AT
NIGHT AND VARIABLE 3-6KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IF ANY
TENDENCY IN THE DIRECTION CAN BE ASCERTAINED...IT WOULD BE TOWARD
THE SW-WSW.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...A
STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING.
THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP SUB-VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN KICKS IN. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST
WITH DOWNSLOPE LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO
AREAS FURTHER EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THE RIVER HAS
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY. SEE THE
LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JM/RAB
HYDROLOGY...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 060500
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1200 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EST FRIDAY...

UPDATED GRIDS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS...ONLY CHANGED
OVER NIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO EXPECTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. THERE ARE SOME
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND NORTH WEST REGION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM
CONDITIONS DOMINATING UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS AFD...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH A VERY
DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STATES WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 150 THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE CHAOTIC AND LIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY CALM AT
NIGHT AND VARIABLE 3-6KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IF ANY
TENDENCY IN THE DIRECTION CAN BE ASCERTAINED...IT WOULD BE TOWARD
THE SW-WSW.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...A
STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING.
THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP SUB-VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN KICKS IN. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST
WITH DOWNSLOPE LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO
AREAS FURTHER EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THE RIVER HAS
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY. SEE THE
LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JM/RAB
HYDROLOGY...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 060500
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1200 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EST FRIDAY...

UPDATED GRIDS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS...ONLY CHANGED
OVER NIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO EXPECTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. THERE ARE SOME
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND NORTH WEST REGION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM
CONDITIONS DOMINATING UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS AFD...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH A VERY
DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STATES WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 150 THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE CHAOTIC AND LIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY CALM AT
NIGHT AND VARIABLE 3-6KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IF ANY
TENDENCY IN THE DIRECTION CAN BE ASCERTAINED...IT WOULD BE TOWARD
THE SW-WSW.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...A
STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING.
THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP SUB-VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN KICKS IN. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST
WITH DOWNSLOPE LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO
AREAS FURTHER EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THE RIVER HAS
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY. SEE THE
LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JM/RAB
HYDROLOGY...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 060224
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
924 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EST FRIDAY...

UPDATED GRIDS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS...ONLY CHANGED
OVER NIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO EXPECTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. THERE ARE SOME
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND NORTH WEST REGION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM
CONDITIONS DOMINATING UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS AFD...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 0645 PM EST FRIDAY...

LITTLE TO NO VARIATION IN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW PAST
SUNSET...WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CANOPY
PRESENT MAINLY IN THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ALL AROUND.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN KICKS IN. A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE
LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THE RIVER HAS
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY. SEE THE
LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...LC/MBS/JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JM/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 060224
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
924 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EST FRIDAY...

UPDATED GRIDS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS...ONLY CHANGED
OVER NIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO EXPECTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. THERE ARE SOME
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND NORTH WEST REGION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM
CONDITIONS DOMINATING UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS AFD...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 0645 PM EST FRIDAY...

LITTLE TO NO VARIATION IN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW PAST
SUNSET...WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CANOPY
PRESENT MAINLY IN THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ALL AROUND.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN KICKS IN. A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE
LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THE RIVER HAS
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY. SEE THE
LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...LC/MBS/JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JM/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 060224
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
924 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EST FRIDAY...

UPDATED GRIDS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS...ONLY CHANGED
OVER NIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO EXPECTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. THERE ARE SOME
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND NORTH WEST REGION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM
CONDITIONS DOMINATING UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS AFD...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 0645 PM EST FRIDAY...

LITTLE TO NO VARIATION IN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW PAST
SUNSET...WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CANOPY
PRESENT MAINLY IN THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ALL AROUND.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN KICKS IN. A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE
LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THE RIVER HAS
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY. SEE THE
LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...LC/MBS/JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JM/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 052353 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TURNING MORE WESTERLY LATE WHICH SHOULD HOLD READINGS
UP SOME ALONG THE RIDGES. HOWEVER THINK ENOUGH OF A QUICK DROP OFF
THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH...AND BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN LATE TO
STAY CLOSE TO MOS. THIS SUPPORTS LOWS MOSTLY 20S...EXCEPT FOR TEENS
VALLEYS...ESPCLY IF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN WITHIN THE VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 0645 PM EST FRIDAY...

LITTLE TO NO VARIATION IN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW PAST
SUNSET...WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CANOPY
PRESENT MAINLY IN THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ALL AROUND.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN KICKS IN. A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE
LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AROUND
RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THESE RIVERS HAVE
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JM/JH
HYDROLOGY...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 052353 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TURNING MORE WESTERLY LATE WHICH SHOULD HOLD READINGS
UP SOME ALONG THE RIDGES. HOWEVER THINK ENOUGH OF A QUICK DROP OFF
THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH...AND BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN LATE TO
STAY CLOSE TO MOS. THIS SUPPORTS LOWS MOSTLY 20S...EXCEPT FOR TEENS
VALLEYS...ESPCLY IF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN WITHIN THE VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 0645 PM EST FRIDAY...

LITTLE TO NO VARIATION IN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW PAST
SUNSET...WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CANOPY
PRESENT MAINLY IN THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ALL AROUND.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN KICKS IN. A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE
LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AROUND
RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THESE RIVERS HAVE
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JM/JH
HYDROLOGY...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 052353 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TURNING MORE WESTERLY LATE WHICH SHOULD HOLD READINGS
UP SOME ALONG THE RIDGES. HOWEVER THINK ENOUGH OF A QUICK DROP OFF
THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH...AND BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN LATE TO
STAY CLOSE TO MOS. THIS SUPPORTS LOWS MOSTLY 20S...EXCEPT FOR TEENS
VALLEYS...ESPCLY IF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN WITHIN THE VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 0645 PM EST FRIDAY...

LITTLE TO NO VARIATION IN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW PAST
SUNSET...WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CANOPY
PRESENT MAINLY IN THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ALL AROUND.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN KICKS IN. A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE
LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AROUND
RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THESE RIVERS HAVE
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JM/JH
HYDROLOGY...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 052349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TURNING MORE WESTERLY LATE WHICH SHOULD HOLD READINGS
UP SOME ALONG THE RIDGES. HOWEVER THINK ENOUGH OF A QUICK DROP OFF
THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH...AND BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN LATE TO
STAY CLOSE TO MOS. THIS SUPPORTS LOWS MOSTLY 20S...EXCEPT FOR TEENS
VALLEYS...ESPCLY IF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN WITHIN THE VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 0645 PM EST
FRIDAY...

LITTLE TO NO VARIATION IN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW PAST SUNSET
...WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CANOPY PRESENT MAINLY
IN THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ALL AROUND.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN KICKS IN. A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE
LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AROUND
RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THESE RIVERS HAVE
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JM/JH
HYDROLOGY...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 052349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TURNING MORE WESTERLY LATE WHICH SHOULD HOLD READINGS
UP SOME ALONG THE RIDGES. HOWEVER THINK ENOUGH OF A QUICK DROP OFF
THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH...AND BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN LATE TO
STAY CLOSE TO MOS. THIS SUPPORTS LOWS MOSTLY 20S...EXCEPT FOR TEENS
VALLEYS...ESPCLY IF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN WITHIN THE VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 0645 PM EST
FRIDAY...

LITTLE TO NO VARIATION IN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW PAST SUNSET
...WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CANOPY PRESENT MAINLY
IN THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ALL AROUND.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN KICKS IN. A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE
LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AROUND
RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THESE RIVERS HAVE
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JM/JH
HYDROLOGY...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 051958
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
258 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS
ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TURNING MORE WESTERLY LATE WHICH SHOULD HOLD READINGS
UP SOME ALONG THE RIDGES. HOWEVER THINK ENOUGH OF A QUICK DROP OFF
THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH...AND BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN LATE TO
STAY CLOSE TO MOS. THIS SUPPORTS LOWS MOSTLY 20S...EXCEPT FOR TEENS
VALLEYS...ESPCLY IF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN WITHIN THE VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT.

EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH
VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT
WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL
SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER
SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK
IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST
AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY  TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY.  MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL
TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR GUSTY NW WINDS...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN BUT WILL LIKELY STILL SEE GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS ALONG THE RIDGES ESPCLY KROA VICINITY. VFR THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CANOPY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST AND SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN LOWER CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN. A MIX OF
MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE LIMITING
CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AROUND
RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THESE RIVERS HAVE
CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 051706
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1206 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 938 AM EST FRIDAY...

DRY PUNCH ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
UPPER WAVE HAS BASICALLY CLEARED THINGS OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS SEEN OVER THE FAR NW.
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT
WILL REMAIN RATHER COLD ESPCLY WEST GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN 85H TEMPS PER THE LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT UNTIL
LATE. THUS LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FAR WEST GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS AS EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WITH
ONLY SPOTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LIKELY GETTING BACK INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S.

OTHERWISE EXPIRED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SW SECTIONS AS
FORECAST INVERSION LEVELS FROM THURSDAY WERE TOO LOW AS COMPARED
TO OBSERVED MORNING RAOBS WHICH HAS ALLOWED LESS MIXING. ALSO
PROGGED 85H JET A BIT WEAKER AND FASTER TO WEAKEN SO EXPECT
OVERALL BLUSTERY COLD CONDITIONS MOUNTAINS BUT BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERALL BY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 634 AM EST FRIDAY...

FLURRIES TAPERING OFF IN THE PIEDMONT WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES PER UPSLOPE. SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS ERODING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE UPSLOPE AREA AND SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
10AM. NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

KEEPING WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE...WILL SEE A BRIEF PEAK GUST BEHIND
SHORTWAVE BETWEEN 12-15Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
LIGHT SNOW...SOME SLEET/SNOW GRAINS BEING REPORTED FROM EAST OF
ROANOKE SOUTH TO MOUNT AIRY AND PILOT MTN NC THIS MORNING...AND AS
FAR EAST AS DANVILLE. DEFORMATION ZONE WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
SHOWING UP FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT AND MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO
SC/NC. THIS WAVE WILL WORK EAST OF US BY MID MORNING WITH PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SNOW HAVE BEEN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO OVERALL ANTICIPATING ONLY A COATING
ON GRASSY SFCS/METAL OBJECTS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.

FURTHER WEST TEMPS COLDER AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCH OR
SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SE WV INTO NW NC...BUT WITH THE 8H
FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC APPEARS THE MOISTURE SHOULD DWINDLE
TOWARD 12Z...SO A SHORT-LIVED NW FLOW EVENT...NOT HEADLINE WORTHY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COAT ROADS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING. SEEMS ITS A MARGINAL
EVENT GIVEN THE 8H FLOW TURNING MORE NNW...THOUGH THIS TYPE OF FLOW
IF THE LOW LVL JET IS STRONG ENOUGH CAN CAUSE MORE ISSUES ON THE ERN
SLOPE/DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SUCH AS FANCY GAP ON I-77.
SINCE GUIDANCE AND LOCAL STUDY SUGGESTS A MARGINAL WIND EVENT AT
BEST WITH GREATEST PRESSURE RISES STAYING SOUTH OF US AN 8H JET ONLY
REACHING NEAR 40 KTS...WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY RUN AS IS.

REST OF THE DAY WILL BECOME SUNNY BUT STAY SOMEWHAT BRISK...THOUGH
WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUST UNDER
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH MID 40S EAST TO LOWER TO MID 30S WEST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW SWINGS BACK TO MORE WSW. ATTM...EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH THINK THE 00Z NAMDNG SHOWING MORE
COVERAGE IN HIGH CLOUDS BEARS WATCHING. IF THIS OCCURS...TEMPS WILL
NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN
THE VALLEYS WITH 20 TO 25 OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 AM EST FRIDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWER
40S WEST TO NEAR 50F EAST. THIS TROUGH MAY BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERATING A SURFACE WAVE
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MODELS ARE KEEPING ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT...THERE COULD BE
A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ALONG THE TN/VA AND VA/NC BORDER
SATURDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM BECOMES OCCLUDED
OVER BERMUDA...LEAVING THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO ENTER THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MONDAY...WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WITHIN THIS TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 522
DECAMETERS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COASTAL LOW IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...WITH A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON TUESDAY. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT WITH HOW FAST THE TROF LIFTS OUT AND THE
COLDER AIR MASS MODERATES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR GUSTY NW WINDS...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN BUT WILL LIKELY STILL SEE GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS ALONG THE RIDGES ESPCLY KROA VICINITY. VFR THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CANOPY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST AND SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN LOWER CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN. A MIX OF
MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE LIMITING
CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1040 AM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AROUND
RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THESE RIVERS ARE
CRESTING OR HAVE CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED
DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 051706
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1206 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 938 AM EST FRIDAY...

DRY PUNCH ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
UPPER WAVE HAS BASICALLY CLEARED THINGS OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS SEEN OVER THE FAR NW.
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT
WILL REMAIN RATHER COLD ESPCLY WEST GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN 85H TEMPS PER THE LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT UNTIL
LATE. THUS LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FAR WEST GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS AS EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WITH
ONLY SPOTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LIKELY GETTING BACK INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S.

OTHERWISE EXPIRED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SW SECTIONS AS
FORECAST INVERSION LEVELS FROM THURSDAY WERE TOO LOW AS COMPARED
TO OBSERVED MORNING RAOBS WHICH HAS ALLOWED LESS MIXING. ALSO
PROGGED 85H JET A BIT WEAKER AND FASTER TO WEAKEN SO EXPECT
OVERALL BLUSTERY COLD CONDITIONS MOUNTAINS BUT BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERALL BY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 634 AM EST FRIDAY...

FLURRIES TAPERING OFF IN THE PIEDMONT WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES PER UPSLOPE. SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS ERODING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE UPSLOPE AREA AND SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
10AM. NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

KEEPING WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE...WILL SEE A BRIEF PEAK GUST BEHIND
SHORTWAVE BETWEEN 12-15Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
LIGHT SNOW...SOME SLEET/SNOW GRAINS BEING REPORTED FROM EAST OF
ROANOKE SOUTH TO MOUNT AIRY AND PILOT MTN NC THIS MORNING...AND AS
FAR EAST AS DANVILLE. DEFORMATION ZONE WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
SHOWING UP FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT AND MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO
SC/NC. THIS WAVE WILL WORK EAST OF US BY MID MORNING WITH PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SNOW HAVE BEEN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO OVERALL ANTICIPATING ONLY A COATING
ON GRASSY SFCS/METAL OBJECTS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.

FURTHER WEST TEMPS COLDER AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCH OR
SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SE WV INTO NW NC...BUT WITH THE 8H
FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC APPEARS THE MOISTURE SHOULD DWINDLE
TOWARD 12Z...SO A SHORT-LIVED NW FLOW EVENT...NOT HEADLINE WORTHY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COAT ROADS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING. SEEMS ITS A MARGINAL
EVENT GIVEN THE 8H FLOW TURNING MORE NNW...THOUGH THIS TYPE OF FLOW
IF THE LOW LVL JET IS STRONG ENOUGH CAN CAUSE MORE ISSUES ON THE ERN
SLOPE/DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SUCH AS FANCY GAP ON I-77.
SINCE GUIDANCE AND LOCAL STUDY SUGGESTS A MARGINAL WIND EVENT AT
BEST WITH GREATEST PRESSURE RISES STAYING SOUTH OF US AN 8H JET ONLY
REACHING NEAR 40 KTS...WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY RUN AS IS.

REST OF THE DAY WILL BECOME SUNNY BUT STAY SOMEWHAT BRISK...THOUGH
WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUST UNDER
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH MID 40S EAST TO LOWER TO MID 30S WEST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW SWINGS BACK TO MORE WSW. ATTM...EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH THINK THE 00Z NAMDNG SHOWING MORE
COVERAGE IN HIGH CLOUDS BEARS WATCHING. IF THIS OCCURS...TEMPS WILL
NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN
THE VALLEYS WITH 20 TO 25 OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 AM EST FRIDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWER
40S WEST TO NEAR 50F EAST. THIS TROUGH MAY BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERATING A SURFACE WAVE
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MODELS ARE KEEPING ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT...THERE COULD BE
A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ALONG THE TN/VA AND VA/NC BORDER
SATURDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM BECOMES OCCLUDED
OVER BERMUDA...LEAVING THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO ENTER THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MONDAY...WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WITHIN THIS TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 522
DECAMETERS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COASTAL LOW IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...WITH A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON TUESDAY. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT WITH HOW FAST THE TROF LIFTS OUT AND THE
COLDER AIR MASS MODERATES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR GUSTY NW WINDS...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN BUT WILL LIKELY STILL SEE GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS ALONG THE RIDGES ESPCLY KROA VICINITY. VFR THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CANOPY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST AND SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN LOWER CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN. A MIX OF
MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE LIMITING
CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1040 AM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AROUND
RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THESE RIVERS ARE
CRESTING OR HAVE CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED
DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 051706
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1206 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 938 AM EST FRIDAY...

DRY PUNCH ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
UPPER WAVE HAS BASICALLY CLEARED THINGS OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS SEEN OVER THE FAR NW.
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT
WILL REMAIN RATHER COLD ESPCLY WEST GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN 85H TEMPS PER THE LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT UNTIL
LATE. THUS LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FAR WEST GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS AS EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WITH
ONLY SPOTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LIKELY GETTING BACK INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S.

OTHERWISE EXPIRED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SW SECTIONS AS
FORECAST INVERSION LEVELS FROM THURSDAY WERE TOO LOW AS COMPARED
TO OBSERVED MORNING RAOBS WHICH HAS ALLOWED LESS MIXING. ALSO
PROGGED 85H JET A BIT WEAKER AND FASTER TO WEAKEN SO EXPECT
OVERALL BLUSTERY COLD CONDITIONS MOUNTAINS BUT BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERALL BY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 634 AM EST FRIDAY...

FLURRIES TAPERING OFF IN THE PIEDMONT WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES PER UPSLOPE. SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS ERODING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE UPSLOPE AREA AND SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
10AM. NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

KEEPING WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE...WILL SEE A BRIEF PEAK GUST BEHIND
SHORTWAVE BETWEEN 12-15Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
LIGHT SNOW...SOME SLEET/SNOW GRAINS BEING REPORTED FROM EAST OF
ROANOKE SOUTH TO MOUNT AIRY AND PILOT MTN NC THIS MORNING...AND AS
FAR EAST AS DANVILLE. DEFORMATION ZONE WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
SHOWING UP FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT AND MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO
SC/NC. THIS WAVE WILL WORK EAST OF US BY MID MORNING WITH PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SNOW HAVE BEEN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO OVERALL ANTICIPATING ONLY A COATING
ON GRASSY SFCS/METAL OBJECTS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.

FURTHER WEST TEMPS COLDER AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCH OR
SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SE WV INTO NW NC...BUT WITH THE 8H
FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC APPEARS THE MOISTURE SHOULD DWINDLE
TOWARD 12Z...SO A SHORT-LIVED NW FLOW EVENT...NOT HEADLINE WORTHY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COAT ROADS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING. SEEMS ITS A MARGINAL
EVENT GIVEN THE 8H FLOW TURNING MORE NNW...THOUGH THIS TYPE OF FLOW
IF THE LOW LVL JET IS STRONG ENOUGH CAN CAUSE MORE ISSUES ON THE ERN
SLOPE/DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SUCH AS FANCY GAP ON I-77.
SINCE GUIDANCE AND LOCAL STUDY SUGGESTS A MARGINAL WIND EVENT AT
BEST WITH GREATEST PRESSURE RISES STAYING SOUTH OF US AN 8H JET ONLY
REACHING NEAR 40 KTS...WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY RUN AS IS.

REST OF THE DAY WILL BECOME SUNNY BUT STAY SOMEWHAT BRISK...THOUGH
WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUST UNDER
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH MID 40S EAST TO LOWER TO MID 30S WEST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW SWINGS BACK TO MORE WSW. ATTM...EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH THINK THE 00Z NAMDNG SHOWING MORE
COVERAGE IN HIGH CLOUDS BEARS WATCHING. IF THIS OCCURS...TEMPS WILL
NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN
THE VALLEYS WITH 20 TO 25 OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 AM EST FRIDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWER
40S WEST TO NEAR 50F EAST. THIS TROUGH MAY BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERATING A SURFACE WAVE
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MODELS ARE KEEPING ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT...THERE COULD BE
A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ALONG THE TN/VA AND VA/NC BORDER
SATURDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM BECOMES OCCLUDED
OVER BERMUDA...LEAVING THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO ENTER THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MONDAY...WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WITHIN THIS TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 522
DECAMETERS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COASTAL LOW IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...WITH A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON TUESDAY. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT WITH HOW FAST THE TROF LIFTS OUT AND THE
COLDER AIR MASS MODERATES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR GUSTY NW WINDS...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN BUT WILL LIKELY STILL SEE GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS ALONG THE RIDGES ESPCLY KROA VICINITY. VFR THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CANOPY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR LOOKS TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST AND SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN LOWER CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN. A MIX OF
MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE LIMITING
CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1040 AM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AROUND
RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THESE RIVERS ARE
CRESTING OR HAVE CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED
DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 051502
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1002 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 938 AM EST FRIDAY...

DRY PUNCH ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
UPPER WAVE HAS BASICALLY CLEARED THINGS OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS SEEN OVER THE FAR NW.
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT
WILL REMAIN RATHER COLD ESPCLY WEST GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN 85H TEMPS PER THE LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT UNTIL
LATE. THUS LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FAR WEST GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS AS EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WITH
ONLY SPOTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LIKELY GETTING BACK INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S.

OTHERWISE EXPIRED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SW SECTIONS AS
FORECAST INVERSION LEVELS FROM THURSDAY WERE TOO LOW AS COMPARED
TO OBSERVED MORNING RAOBS WHICH HAS ALLOWED LESS MIXING. ALSO
PROGGED 85H JET A BIT WEAKER AND FASTER TO WEAKEN SO EXPECT
OVERALL BLUSTERY COLD CONDITIONS MOUNTAINS BUT BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERALL BY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 634 AM EST FRIDAY...

FLURRIES TAPERING OFF IN THE PIEDMONT WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES PER UPSLOPE. SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS ERODING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE UPSLOPE AREA AND SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
10AM. NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

KEEPING WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE...WILL SEE A BRIEF PEAK GUST BEHIND
SHORTWAVE BETWEEN 12-15Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
LIGHT SNOW...SOME SLEET/SNOW GRAINS BEING REPORTED FROM EAST OF
ROANOKE SOUTH TO MOUNT AIRY AND PILOT MTN NC THIS MORNING...AND AS
FAR EAST AS DANVILLE. DEFORMATION ZONE WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
SHOWING UP FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT AND MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO
SC/NC. THIS WAVE WILL WORK EAST OF US BY MID MORNING WITH PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SNOW HAVE BEEN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO OVERALL ANTICIPATING ONLY A COATING
ON GRASSY SFCS/METAL OBJECTS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.

FURTHER WEST TEMPS COLDER AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCH OR
SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SE WV INTO NW NC...BUT WITH THE 8H
FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC APPEARS THE MOISTURE SHOULD DWINDLE
TOWARD 12Z...SO A SHORT-LIVED NW FLOW EVENT...NOT HEADLINE WORTHY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COAT ROADS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING. SEEMS ITS A MARGINAL
EVENT GIVEN THE 8H FLOW TURNING MORE NNW...THOUGH THIS TYPE OF FLOW
IF THE LOW LVL JET IS STRONG ENOUGH CAN CAUSE MORE ISSUES ON THE ERN
SLOPE/DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SUCH AS FANCY GAP ON I-77.
SINCE GUIDANCE AND LOCAL STUDY SUGGESTS A MARGINAL WIND EVENT AT
BEST WITH GREATEST PRESSURE RISES STAYING SOUTH OF US AN 8H JET ONLY
REACHING NEAR 40 KTS...WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY RUN AS IS.

REST OF THE DAY WILL BECOME SUNNY BUT STAY SOMEWHAT BRISK...THOUGH
WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUST UNDER
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH MID 40S EAST TO LOWER TO MID 30S WEST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW SWINGS BACK TO MORE WSW. ATTM...EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH THINK THE 00Z NAMDNG SHOWING MORE
COVERAGE IN HIGH CLOUDS BEARS WATCHING. IF THIS OCCURS...TEMPS WILL
NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN
THE VALLEYS WITH 20 TO 25 OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 AM EST FRIDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWER
40S WEST TO NEAR 50F EAST. THIS TROUGH MAY BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERATING A SURFACE WAVE
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MODELS ARE KEEPING ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT...THERE COULD BE
A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ALONG THE TN/VA AND VA/NC BORDER
SATURDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM BECOMES OCCLUDED
OVER BERMUDA...LEAVING THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO ENTER THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MONDAY...WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WITHIN THIS TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 522
DECAMETERS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COASTAL LOW IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...WITH A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON TUESDAY. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT WITH HOW FAST THE TROF LIFTS OUT AND THE
COLDER AIR MASS MODERATES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EST FRIDAY...

MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST WILL SCATTER OUT WITH THE REGION BECOMING
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT KEEPING IT
VFR. WINDS STAY GUSTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH SOME EXCEEDING
30KTS NEAR HLX/GEV/TNB TIL 15Z.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

AT THE MOMENT THE SUNDAY SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE STAYING SOUTH SO
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BUILDS IN. AN
ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS US MONDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO MOST TAF SITES...BUT ESPECIALLY BLF/LWB/ROA. THINKING IT
WILL SPREAD SNOW TO THE LYH AREA AS WELL. WITH THIS FRONT LOOK FOR
MVFR CIGS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS WHERE IT SNOWS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING THE MTNS
AT LEAST MVFR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. MVFR/VFR EXPECTED IN
THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY AS WELL TUE-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 323 AM EST FRIDAY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AROUND
RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THESE RIVERS ARE
CRESTING OR HAVE CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED
DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...WP





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