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000
FXUS61 KRNK 290458
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1158 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
BEFORE SLIPPING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SEASONABLE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SEVERAL CASES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS...E.G...LWB ALREADY DOWN TO 17
AND THE FORECAST LOW WAS 22. SO...HAD TO DO SOME SIGNIFICANT
LOWERING TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. APPEARS THAT READINGS ARE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF MOS THAN WITH A MODEL BLEND OR THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. ECMWF MOS VERY CLOSE TO PROJECTED TRENDS.

AS OF 650 PM EST FRIDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...JUST
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD TO BRING INTO LINE WITH CURRENT
READINGS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED IN WESTERN AREAS.

AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD PREDOMINATES. THE UPPER FLOW IS MUCH MORE ZONAL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH MILDER AIR TO SPILL EASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
H85 TEMPS REBOUND FROM -10C READINGS OF THIS MORNING TO +5C BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN BUT FIGHTING
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SHORT-WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND YIELDING LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM
ACROSS THE CWA FROM LOW TO MID-20S. COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS LEAST LIKELY. AFTER THE RECENT CHILLY SPELL
SATURDAY WILL SEEM COMPARATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID-
40S TO LOW 50S WHICH IS STILL BELOW CLIMO BUT ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN
TODAY. CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN SHORT-WAVE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
LATER IN THE DAY AND GOOD WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WINDS BECOME SWLY. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS WILL
MAKE FOR SOME BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE...COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS NO BIG PUSH TO IT AND IT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY INCREASING POPS FORM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
RIPPLES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE WAVE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE NOT QUITE
SO ENTHUSIASTIC. HIGH CHC POPS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION UNTIL LATER
RUNS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THEN FORCIBLY WEDGE DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. EXACT DEPTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SFC BASED COLD LAYER ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS
POINT...BUT EXPECT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE FORE SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SO WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE GRIDS. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED COLDER BUT HAVE TRIMMED A BIT MORE IN ANTICIPATION OF A
STRONG WEDGE SITUATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL GLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING THE PIEDMONT IN THE EVENING. RAIN FROM
THIS TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE WEDGE COMING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE WEDGE COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT WITH THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER WARM MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COOLER LOW
LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THICK LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
LIKELY ENGULF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER NEW
ENGLAND...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...THEREFORE WILL
KEEP POPS UNDER 30 PERCENT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE CHALLENGE AS DRY COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH WITH WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT ADVECTING NORTH. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE AROUND 1300M OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 85H TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...+2C ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGHLANDS. THESE 85H TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VIEWING MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE COLD SUB-FREEZING AIR IS
AROUND 4000 FEET THICK. SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO SUGGESTING ANY
MEASURABLE P-TYPE WOULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. LOOKING AT
SOUNDING PROFILES...I WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE
SCENARIO...A GLAZING OF ICE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BETWEEN 2500-4000 FT.. WE ALSO NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS
A DAY 5-6 FORECAST AND MODELS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING VERY LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A POSSIBLE TRACE
EVENT...WILL NOT ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) AT THIS
TIME.

FOLLOWING P-TYPE CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT
QUESTION TO ANSWER IS...HOW LONG WILL THE WEDGE REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. SURPRISING...THE USUALLY PROGRESSIVE GFS LINGERS A PIECE OF
THE WEDGE OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
LINGERING WEDGE...12Z GFS STILL HAS THE WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS IN THE AREA INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PIEDMONT BEING THE
LAST TO CLEAR. THE WEDGE WILL ERODE EACH PERIOD...FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND FROM TOP-DOWN. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT
AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BREAK THE WEDGE.
TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY WARM 10F OR SO IN JUST A FEW HOURS. ONCE
THE WEDGE BREAKS...WE COULD SEE A DAY OR SO OF WARM
TEMPERATURES...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT COULD STALL OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WAA WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SAT. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NE OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
LEAVING EITHER SKC OR SCT250. OTHERWISE...NO CIGS BELOW 10KFT THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO VISIBILITY ISSUES THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. WINDS BECOMING SW-S OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT...INCREASING IN
SPEED 8-10KTS AFT 14Z SAT WITH LOW END GUSTS AT BLF/BCB/ROA/DAN AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTRAL U.S.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA BR AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT. A WEDGE PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP BY
MON NIGHT/TUE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND -RA. SOME -FZRA
APPEARS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290458
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1158 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
BEFORE SLIPPING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SEASONABLE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SEVERAL CASES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS...E.G...LWB ALREADY DOWN TO 17
AND THE FORECAST LOW WAS 22. SO...HAD TO DO SOME SIGNIFICANT
LOWERING TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. APPEARS THAT READINGS ARE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF MOS THAN WITH A MODEL BLEND OR THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. ECMWF MOS VERY CLOSE TO PROJECTED TRENDS.

AS OF 650 PM EST FRIDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...JUST
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD TO BRING INTO LINE WITH CURRENT
READINGS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED IN WESTERN AREAS.

AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD PREDOMINATES. THE UPPER FLOW IS MUCH MORE ZONAL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH MILDER AIR TO SPILL EASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
H85 TEMPS REBOUND FROM -10C READINGS OF THIS MORNING TO +5C BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN BUT FIGHTING
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SHORT-WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND YIELDING LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM
ACROSS THE CWA FROM LOW TO MID-20S. COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS LEAST LIKELY. AFTER THE RECENT CHILLY SPELL
SATURDAY WILL SEEM COMPARATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID-
40S TO LOW 50S WHICH IS STILL BELOW CLIMO BUT ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN
TODAY. CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN SHORT-WAVE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
LATER IN THE DAY AND GOOD WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WINDS BECOME SWLY. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS WILL
MAKE FOR SOME BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE...COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS NO BIG PUSH TO IT AND IT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY INCREASING POPS FORM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
RIPPLES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE WAVE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE NOT QUITE
SO ENTHUSIASTIC. HIGH CHC POPS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION UNTIL LATER
RUNS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THEN FORCIBLY WEDGE DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. EXACT DEPTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SFC BASED COLD LAYER ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS
POINT...BUT EXPECT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE FORE SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SO WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE GRIDS. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED COLDER BUT HAVE TRIMMED A BIT MORE IN ANTICIPATION OF A
STRONG WEDGE SITUATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL GLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING THE PIEDMONT IN THE EVENING. RAIN FROM
THIS TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE WEDGE COMING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE WEDGE COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT WITH THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER WARM MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COOLER LOW
LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THICK LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
LIKELY ENGULF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER NEW
ENGLAND...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...THEREFORE WILL
KEEP POPS UNDER 30 PERCENT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE CHALLENGE AS DRY COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH WITH WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT ADVECTING NORTH. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE AROUND 1300M OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 85H TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...+2C ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGHLANDS. THESE 85H TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VIEWING MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE COLD SUB-FREEZING AIR IS
AROUND 4000 FEET THICK. SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO SUGGESTING ANY
MEASURABLE P-TYPE WOULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. LOOKING AT
SOUNDING PROFILES...I WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE
SCENARIO...A GLAZING OF ICE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BETWEEN 2500-4000 FT.. WE ALSO NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS
A DAY 5-6 FORECAST AND MODELS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING VERY LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A POSSIBLE TRACE
EVENT...WILL NOT ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) AT THIS
TIME.

FOLLOWING P-TYPE CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT
QUESTION TO ANSWER IS...HOW LONG WILL THE WEDGE REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. SURPRISING...THE USUALLY PROGRESSIVE GFS LINGERS A PIECE OF
THE WEDGE OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
LINGERING WEDGE...12Z GFS STILL HAS THE WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS IN THE AREA INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PIEDMONT BEING THE
LAST TO CLEAR. THE WEDGE WILL ERODE EACH PERIOD...FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND FROM TOP-DOWN. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT
AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BREAK THE WEDGE.
TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY WARM 10F OR SO IN JUST A FEW HOURS. ONCE
THE WEDGE BREAKS...WE COULD SEE A DAY OR SO OF WARM
TEMPERATURES...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT COULD STALL OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WAA WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SAT. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NE OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
LEAVING EITHER SKC OR SCT250. OTHERWISE...NO CIGS BELOW 10KFT THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO VISIBILITY ISSUES THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. WINDS BECOMING SW-S OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT...INCREASING IN
SPEED 8-10KTS AFT 14Z SAT WITH LOW END GUSTS AT BLF/BCB/ROA/DAN AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTRAL U.S.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA BR AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT. A WEDGE PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP BY
MON NIGHT/TUE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND -RA. SOME -FZRA
APPEARS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290000
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
700 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
BEFORE SLIPPING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SEASONABLE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EST FRIDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...JUST
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD TO BRING INTO LINE WITH CURRENT
READINGS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED IN WESTERN AREAS.

AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD PREDOMINATES. THE UPPER FLOW IS MUCH MORE ZONAL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH MILDER AIR TO SPILL EASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
H85 TEMPS REBOUND FROM -10C READINGS OF THIS MORNING TO +5C BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN BUT FIGHTING
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SHORT-WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND YIELDING LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM
ACROSS THE CWA FROM LOW TO MID-20S. COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS LEAST LIKELY. AFTER THE RECENT CHILLY SPELL
SATURDAY WILL SEEM COMPARATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID-
40S TO LOW 50S WHICH IS STILL BELOW CLIMO BUT ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN
TODAY. CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN SHORT-WAVE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
LATER IN THE DAY AND GOOD WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WINDS BECOME SWLY. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS WILL
MAKE FOR SOME BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE...COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS NO BIG PUSH TO IT AND IT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY INCREASING POPS FORM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
RIPPLES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE WAVE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE NOT QUITE
SO ENTHUSIASTIC. HIGH CHC POPS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION UNTIL LATER
RUNS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THEN FORCIBLY WEDGE DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. EXACT DEPTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SFC BASED COLD LAYER ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS
POINT...BUT EXPECT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE FORE SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SO WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE GRIDS. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED COLDER BUT HAVE TRIMMED A BIT MORE IN ANTICIPATION OF A
STRONG WEDGE SITUATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL GLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING THE PIEDMONT IN THE EVENING. RAIN FROM
THIS TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE WEDGE COMING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE WEDGE COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT WITH THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER WARM MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COOLER LOW
LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THICK LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
LIKELY ENGULF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER NEW
ENGLAND...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...THEREFORE WILL
KEEP POPS UNDER 30 PERCENT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE CHALLENGE AS DRY COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH WITH WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT ADVECTING NORTH. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE AROUND 1300M OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 85H TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...+2C ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGHLANDS. THESE 85H TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VIEWING MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE COLD SUB-FREEZING AIR IS
AROUND 4000 FEET THICK. SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO SUGGESTING ANY
MEASURABLE P-TYPE WOULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. LOOKING AT
SOUNDING PROFILES...I WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE
SCENARIO...A GLAZING OF ICE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BETWEEN 2500-4000 FT.. WE ALSO NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS
A DAY 5-6 FORECAST AND MODELS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING VERY LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A POSSIBLE TRACE
EVENT...WILL NOT ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) AT THIS
TIME.

FOLLOWING P-TYPE CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT
QUESTION TO ANSWER IS...HOW LONG WILL THE WEDGE REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. SURPRISING...THE USUALLY PROGRESSIVE GFS LINGERS A PIECE OF
THE WEDGE OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
LINGERING WEDGE...12Z GFS STILL HAS THE WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS IN THE AREA INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PIEDMONT BEING THE
LAST TO CLEAR. THE WEDGE WILL ERODE EACH PERIOD...FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND FROM TOP-DOWN. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT
AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BREAK THE WEDGE.
TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY WARM 10F OR SO IN JUST A FEW HOURS. ONCE
THE WEDGE BREAKS...WE COULD SEE A DAY OR SO OF WARM
TEMPERATURES...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT COULD STALL OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST FRIDAY...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED WESTERN MOUNTAIN SITES AS W-NW UPSLOPE
FLOW HAS ENDED AND WAA PROCESS UNDERWAY. THEREFORE...NOW EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN EXIT TO THE NE OF THE REGION
ALLOWING A DECREASE IN THESE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. ALL CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE 080 OR MOST LIKELY HIGHER
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS AIR MASS TOO DRY FOR ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY REMAINING NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT...BACKING TO THE SSW-SW
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT...THEN INCREASING TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
6-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS BY LATE MORNING ROA/BCB/BLF/DAN IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA BR AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT. A WEDGE PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP BY
MON NIGHT/TUE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND -RA. SOME -FZRA
APPEARS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290000
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
700 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
BEFORE SLIPPING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SEASONABLE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EST FRIDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...JUST
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD TO BRING INTO LINE WITH CURRENT
READINGS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED IN WESTERN AREAS.

AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD PREDOMINATES. THE UPPER FLOW IS MUCH MORE ZONAL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH MILDER AIR TO SPILL EASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
H85 TEMPS REBOUND FROM -10C READINGS OF THIS MORNING TO +5C BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN BUT FIGHTING
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SHORT-WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND YIELDING LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM
ACROSS THE CWA FROM LOW TO MID-20S. COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS LEAST LIKELY. AFTER THE RECENT CHILLY SPELL
SATURDAY WILL SEEM COMPARATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID-
40S TO LOW 50S WHICH IS STILL BELOW CLIMO BUT ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN
TODAY. CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN SHORT-WAVE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
LATER IN THE DAY AND GOOD WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WINDS BECOME SWLY. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS WILL
MAKE FOR SOME BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE...COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS NO BIG PUSH TO IT AND IT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY INCREASING POPS FORM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
RIPPLES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE WAVE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE NOT QUITE
SO ENTHUSIASTIC. HIGH CHC POPS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION UNTIL LATER
RUNS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THEN FORCIBLY WEDGE DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. EXACT DEPTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SFC BASED COLD LAYER ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS
POINT...BUT EXPECT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE FORE SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SO WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE GRIDS. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED COLDER BUT HAVE TRIMMED A BIT MORE IN ANTICIPATION OF A
STRONG WEDGE SITUATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL GLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING THE PIEDMONT IN THE EVENING. RAIN FROM
THIS TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE WEDGE COMING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE WEDGE COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT WITH THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER WARM MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COOLER LOW
LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THICK LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
LIKELY ENGULF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER NEW
ENGLAND...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...THEREFORE WILL
KEEP POPS UNDER 30 PERCENT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE CHALLENGE AS DRY COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH WITH WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT ADVECTING NORTH. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE AROUND 1300M OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 85H TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...+2C ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGHLANDS. THESE 85H TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VIEWING MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE COLD SUB-FREEZING AIR IS
AROUND 4000 FEET THICK. SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO SUGGESTING ANY
MEASURABLE P-TYPE WOULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. LOOKING AT
SOUNDING PROFILES...I WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE
SCENARIO...A GLAZING OF ICE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BETWEEN 2500-4000 FT.. WE ALSO NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS
A DAY 5-6 FORECAST AND MODELS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING VERY LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A POSSIBLE TRACE
EVENT...WILL NOT ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) AT THIS
TIME.

FOLLOWING P-TYPE CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT
QUESTION TO ANSWER IS...HOW LONG WILL THE WEDGE REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. SURPRISING...THE USUALLY PROGRESSIVE GFS LINGERS A PIECE OF
THE WEDGE OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
LINGERING WEDGE...12Z GFS STILL HAS THE WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS IN THE AREA INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PIEDMONT BEING THE
LAST TO CLEAR. THE WEDGE WILL ERODE EACH PERIOD...FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND FROM TOP-DOWN. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT
AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BREAK THE WEDGE.
TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY WARM 10F OR SO IN JUST A FEW HOURS. ONCE
THE WEDGE BREAKS...WE COULD SEE A DAY OR SO OF WARM
TEMPERATURES...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT COULD STALL OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST FRIDAY...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED WESTERN MOUNTAIN SITES AS W-NW UPSLOPE
FLOW HAS ENDED AND WAA PROCESS UNDERWAY. THEREFORE...NOW EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN EXIT TO THE NE OF THE REGION
ALLOWING A DECREASE IN THESE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. ALL CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE 080 OR MOST LIKELY HIGHER
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS AIR MASS TOO DRY FOR ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY REMAINING NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT...BACKING TO THE SSW-SW
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT...THEN INCREASING TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
6-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS BY LATE MORNING ROA/BCB/BLF/DAN IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA BR AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT. A WEDGE PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP BY
MON NIGHT/TUE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND -RA. SOME -FZRA
APPEARS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282032
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
BEFORE SLIPPING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SEASONABLE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD PREDOMINATES. THE UPPER FLOW IS MUCH MORE ZONAL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH MILDER AIR TO SPILL EASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
H85 TEMPS REBOUND FROM -10C READINGS OF THIS MORNING TO +5C BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN BUT FIGHTING
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SHORT-WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND YIELDING LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM
ACROSS THE CWA FROM LOW TO MID-20S. COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS LEAST LIKELY. AFTER THE RECENT CHILLY SPELL
SATURDAY WILL SEEM COMPARATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID-
40S TO LOW 50S WHICH IS STILL BELOW CLIMO BUT ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN
TODAY. CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN SHORT-WAVE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
LATER IN THE DAY AND GOOD WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WINDS BECOME SWLY. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS WILL
MAKE FOR SOME BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE...COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS NO BIG PUSH TO IT AND IT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY INCREASING POPS FORM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
RIPPLES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE WAVE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE NOT QUITE
SO ENTHUSIASTIC. HIGH CHC POPS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION UNTIL LATER
RUNS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THEN FORCIBLY WEDGE DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. EXACT DEPTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SFC BASED COLD LAYER ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS
POINT...BUT EXPECT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE FORE SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN...SO WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE GRIDS. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED COLDER BUT HAVE TRIMMED A BIT MORE IN ANTICIPATION OF A
STRONG WEDGE SITUATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL GLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING THE PIEDMONT IN THE EVENING. RAIN FROM
THIS TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE WEDGE COMING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE WEDGE COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT WITH THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER WARM MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COOLER LOW
LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THICK LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
LIKELY ENGULF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER NEW
ENGLAND...MEASURABLE PRECIPIATION MAY BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...THEREFORE WILL
KEEP POPS UNDER 30 PERCENT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE CHALLENGE AS DRY COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH WITH WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT ADVECTING NORTH. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE AROUND 1300M OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 85H TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...+2C ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGHLANDS. THESE 85H TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VIEWING MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE COLD SUB-FREEZING AIR IS
AROUND 4000 FEET THICK. SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO SUGGESTING ANY
MEASURABLE P-TYPE WOULD BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. LOOKING AT
SOUNDING PROFILES...I WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE
SCENARIO...A GLAZING OF ICE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BETWEEN 2500-4000 FT.. WE ALSO NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS
A DAY 5-6 FORECAST AND MODELS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING VERY LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A POSSIBLE TRACE
EVENT...WILL NOT ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) AT THIS
TIME.

FOLLOWING P-TYPE CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT
QUESTION TO ANSWER IS...HOW LONG WILL THE WEDGE REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. SURPRISING...THE USUALLY PROGRESSIVE GFS LINGERS A PIECE OF
THE WEDGE OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
LINGERING WEDGE...12Z GFS STILL HAS THE WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS IN THE AREA INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PIEDMONT BEING THE
LAST TO CLEAR. THE WEDGE WILL ERODE EACH PERIOD...FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND FROM TOP-DOWN. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT
AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BREAK THE WEDGE.
TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY WARM 10F OR SO IN JUST A FEW HOURS. ONCE
THE WEDGE BREAKS...WE COULD SEE A DAY OR SO OF WARM
TEMPERATURES...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT COULD STALL OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY...

MOUNTAIN TAF SITES NEAR MVFR CIGS AS NW FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ALL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AND VSBYS
ARE VFR. SHOULD SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
A COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT
INTO THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BKN CIGS POSSIBLE
ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281757
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1257 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY...

ALL THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO PERSIST IN THE WEST UNDER DECREASING NW FLOW. TEMPS ON FORECAST
TRACK FOR HIGHS UPPER 20S NW TO LOW 40S SE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY...

MOUNTAIN TAF SITES NEAR MVFR CIGS AS NW FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ALL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AND VSBYS
ARE VFR. SHOULD SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
A COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT
INTO THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BKN CIGS POSSIBLE
ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281757
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1257 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY...

ALL THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO PERSIST IN THE WEST UNDER DECREASING NW FLOW. TEMPS ON FORECAST
TRACK FOR HIGHS UPPER 20S NW TO LOW 40S SE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY...

MOUNTAIN TAF SITES NEAR MVFR CIGS AS NW FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ALL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AND VSBYS
ARE VFR. SHOULD SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
A COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT
INTO THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BKN CIGS POSSIBLE
ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281459
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
959 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS OF LATE MORNING WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES BEING REPORTED IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAS CEASED AND WINDS WILL BE RELAXING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...HENCE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE. STILL A COLD DAY ON TAP FOR SHOPPERS WITH HIGHS UPPER 20S
NW TO LOW 40S SE...ABOUT 15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST FRIDAY...

UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VARYING CIGS RANGING FROM MVFR AT
KBLF/KLWB TO MAINLY VFR BASES AT KBCB/KROA AND CLEAR OUT EAST. A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER AS
WELL MAINLY IN THE KBLF-KLWB-KBCB CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH NOT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY. OTRW EXPECTING MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN SE WEST VA
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH CLEARING ESLW OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS
WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
BKN CIGS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281459
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
959 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS OF LATE MORNING WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES BEING REPORTED IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAS CEASED AND WINDS WILL BE RELAXING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...HENCE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE. STILL A COLD DAY ON TAP FOR SHOPPERS WITH HIGHS UPPER 20S
NW TO LOW 40S SE...ABOUT 15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST FRIDAY...

UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VARYING CIGS RANGING FROM MVFR AT
KBLF/KLWB TO MAINLY VFR BASES AT KBCB/KROA AND CLEAR OUT EAST. A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER AS
WELL MAINLY IN THE KBLF-KLWB-KBCB CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH NOT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY. OTRW EXPECTING MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN SE WEST VA
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH CLEARING ESLW OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS
WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
BKN CIGS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281151
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
651 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

BANDED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING SUPPORTED BY EARLIER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
STRONG NW FLOW WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER PER EVENING RNK SOUNDING. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING SHOULD SEE THE
85H COLD ADVECTION AND NW TRAJECTORY MAX OUT AROUND 12Z FOLLOWED
BY A WEAKER WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER WARMING ALOFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBO WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM ALOFT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO AN END BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NW WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LAST FAINT AXIS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
ESPCLY IN BANDS FROM AROUND BLF TO WESTERN GREENBRIER CTY BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH A SPS RATHER THAN HOIST A SHORT
ADVISORY GIVEN MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO COVERAGE WITH TIME TOWARD
DAWN. NW FLOW ALSO REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FLURRIES OUT TO
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL SO INCLUDED MENTION
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS EARLY ON.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD BRING MORE CLEARING TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES EAST OUTSIDE OF SOME LATE DAY CI/AC. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WHILE ARCTIC AIR
AND MORE CLOUDS EARLY SUPPORTS LOWERING HIGHS TO ONLY AROUND 30
SE WVA AND LOW/MID 30S BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH/EAST
WILL TOP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S GIVEN MORE INSOLATION AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST FRIDAY...

UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VARYING CIGS RANGING FROM MVFR AT
KBLF/KLWB TO MAINLY VFR BASES AT KBCB/KROA AND CLEAR OUT EAST. A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER AS
WELL MAINLY IN THE KBLF-KLWB-KBCB CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH NOT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY. OTRW EXPECTING MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN SE WEST VA
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH CLEARING ESLW OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS
WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
BKN CIGS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280803
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

BANDED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING SUPPORTED BY EARLIER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
STRONG NW FLOW WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER PER EVENING RNK SOUNDING. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING SHOULD SEE THE
85H COLD ADVECTION AND NW TRAJECTORY MAX OUT AROUND 12Z FOLLOWED
BY A WEAKER WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER WARMING ALOFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBO WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM ALOFT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO AN END BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NW WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LAST FAINT AXIS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
ESPCLY IN BANDS FROM AROUND BLF TO WESTERN GREENBRIER CTY BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH A SPS RATHER THAN HOIST A SHORT
ADVISORY GIVEN MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO COVERAGE WITH TIME TOWARD
DAWN. NW FLOW ALSO REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FLURRIES OUT TO
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL SO INCLUDED MENTION
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS EARLY ON.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD BRING MORE CLEARING TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES EAST OUTSIDE OF SOME LATE DAY CI/AC. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WHILE ARCTIC AIR
AND MORE CLOUDS EARLY SUPPORTS LOWERING HIGHS TO ONLY AROUND 30
SE WVA AND LOW/MID 30S BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH/EAST
WILL TOP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S GIVEN MORE INSOLATION AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...BUT EMBEDDED
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVES TRIGGERING PERSISTENT BANDS
OF -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW -SHSN
SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH STRONG CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. BCB MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IS ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PENETRATE THAT FAR EAST. THE THREAT FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE AFT 10Z AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT
AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
15Z FRI. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN BKN-OVC CIGS
MOSTLY AOA100 AND NO PCPN. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AND REMAINING FAIRLY BRISK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-10KTS...WITH
LOW END GUSTS TO 18KTS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280803
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

BANDED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING SUPPORTED BY EARLIER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
STRONG NW FLOW WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER PER EVENING RNK SOUNDING. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING SHOULD SEE THE
85H COLD ADVECTION AND NW TRAJECTORY MAX OUT AROUND 12Z FOLLOWED
BY A WEAKER WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER WARMING ALOFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBO WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM ALOFT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO AN END BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NW WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LAST FAINT AXIS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
ESPCLY IN BANDS FROM AROUND BLF TO WESTERN GREENBRIER CTY BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH A SPS RATHER THAN HOIST A SHORT
ADVISORY GIVEN MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO COVERAGE WITH TIME TOWARD
DAWN. NW FLOW ALSO REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FLURRIES OUT TO
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL SO INCLUDED MENTION
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS EARLY ON.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD BRING MORE CLEARING TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES EAST OUTSIDE OF SOME LATE DAY CI/AC. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WHILE ARCTIC AIR
AND MORE CLOUDS EARLY SUPPORTS LOWERING HIGHS TO ONLY AROUND 30
SE WVA AND LOW/MID 30S BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH/EAST
WILL TOP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S GIVEN MORE INSOLATION AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...BUT EMBEDDED
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVES TRIGGERING PERSISTENT BANDS
OF -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW -SHSN
SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH STRONG CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. BCB MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IS ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PENETRATE THAT FAR EAST. THE THREAT FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE AFT 10Z AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT
AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
15Z FRI. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN BKN-OVC CIGS
MOSTLY AOA100 AND NO PCPN. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AND REMAINING FAIRLY BRISK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-10KTS...WITH
LOW END GUSTS TO 18KTS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280452
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1152 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST THURSDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. CALLED COUNTY DOT
AND EOC CENTERS FROM BATH DOWN TO WATAUGA. MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN WATAUGA AND ASHE WHERE MUCH OF THE
COUNTY HAS RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING...2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TAZEWELL AND BATH COUNTIES ALSO HAD SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION...BUT ALL COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE NC COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. WITH CAA AND UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...BUT LIKELY TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHING AS SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SO
HAVE POSTED AN SPS FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT FROM BATH TO WATAUGA THROUGH 13Z. LINES UP WELL
WITH THINKING OF SURROUNDING OFFICES.


AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...BUT EMBEDDED
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVES TRIGGERING PERSISTENT BANDS
OF -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW -SHSN
SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH STRONG CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. BCB MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IS ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PENETRATE THAT FAR EAST. THE THREAT FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE AFT 10Z AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT
AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
15Z FRI. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN BKN-OVC CIGS
MOSTLY AOA100 AND NO PCPN. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AND REMAINING FAIRLY BRISK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-10KTS...WITH
LOW END GUSTS TO 18KTS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280452
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1152 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST THURSDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. CALLED COUNTY DOT
AND EOC CENTERS FROM BATH DOWN TO WATAUGA. MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN WATAUGA AND ASHE WHERE MUCH OF THE
COUNTY HAS RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING...2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TAZEWELL AND BATH COUNTIES ALSO HAD SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION...BUT ALL COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE NC COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. WITH CAA AND UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...BUT LIKELY TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHING AS SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SO
HAVE POSTED AN SPS FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT FROM BATH TO WATAUGA THROUGH 13Z. LINES UP WELL
WITH THINKING OF SURROUNDING OFFICES.


AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...BUT EMBEDDED
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVES TRIGGERING PERSISTENT BANDS
OF -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW -SHSN
SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH STRONG CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. BCB MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IS ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PENETRATE THAT FAR EAST. THE THREAT FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE AFT 10Z AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT
AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
15Z FRI. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN BKN-OVC CIGS
MOSTLY AOA100 AND NO PCPN. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AND REMAINING FAIRLY BRISK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-10KTS...WITH
LOW END GUSTS TO 18KTS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280302
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1002 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST THURSDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. CALLED COUNTY DOT
AND EOC CENTERS FROM BATH DOWN TO WATAUGA. MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN WATAUGA AND ASHE WHERE MUCH OF THE
COUNTY HAS RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING...2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TAZEWELL AND BATH COUNTIES ALSO HAD SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION...BUT ALL COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE NC COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. WITH CAA AND UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...BUT LIKELY TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHING AS SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SO
HAVE POSTED AN SPS FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT FROM BATH TO WATAUGA THROUGH 13Z. LINES UP WELL
WITH THINKING OF SURROUNDING OFFICES.


AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280302
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1002 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST THURSDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. CALLED COUNTY DOT
AND EOC CENTERS FROM BATH DOWN TO WATAUGA. MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN WATAUGA AND ASHE WHERE MUCH OF THE
COUNTY HAS RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING...2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TAZEWELL AND BATH COUNTIES ALSO HAD SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION...BUT ALL COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE NC COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. WITH CAA AND UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...BUT LIKELY TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHING AS SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SO
HAVE POSTED AN SPS FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT FROM BATH TO WATAUGA THROUGH 13Z. LINES UP WELL
WITH THINKING OF SURROUNDING OFFICES.


AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280005
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280005
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272348
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
648 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 272348
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
648 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
257 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
257 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271807
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED POP GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IN THE WEST AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST HAVE
ALL BUT ENDED AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN THIS AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS BEGIN TO TUMBLE AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 30S WEST AND 40S EAST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...
NOT TOO PLEASANT FOR WALKING OFF THE TURKEY DINNER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NOTRHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271807
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED POP GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IN THE WEST AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST HAVE
ALL BUT ENDED AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN THIS AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS BEGIN TO TUMBLE AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 30S WEST AND 40S EAST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...
NOT TOO PLEASANT FOR WALKING OFF THE TURKEY DINNER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NOTRHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271740
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST THURSDAY...

WILL BE DROPPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR SW COUNTIES ON
SCHEDULE AT NOON. WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SURFACE WAVE WELL EAST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH A DRYING COMPONENT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS..OVER 3000 FEET... REPORTED ABOUT 3
INCHES FROM THIS EVENT IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER FELL YESTERDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE
CHILLY FOR ANY BACKYARD FOOTBALL GAMES...MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO MID-40S FAR EAST...WHICH IS 10-15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NOTRHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271740
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST THURSDAY...

WILL BE DROPPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR SW COUNTIES ON
SCHEDULE AT NOON. WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SURFACE WAVE WELL EAST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH A DRYING COMPONENT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS..OVER 3000 FEET... REPORTED ABOUT 3
INCHES FROM THIS EVENT IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER FELL YESTERDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE
CHILLY FOR ANY BACKYARD FOOTBALL GAMES...MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO MID-40S FAR EAST...WHICH IS 10-15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NOTRHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1141 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST THURSDAY...

WILL BE DROPPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR SW COUNTIES ON
SCHEDULE AT NOON. WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SURFACE WAVE WELL EAST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH A DRYING COMPONENT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS..OVER 3000 FEET... REPORTED ABOUT 3
INCHES FROM THIS EVENT IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER FELL YESTERDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE
CHILLY FOR ANY BACKYARD FOOTBALL GAMES...MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO MID-40S FAR EAST...WHICH IS 10-15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST THURSDAY...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA WILL HEAD EAST PASSING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE BANDS OF -SN OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAKING FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS INCLUDING AREAS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG. MOSTLY -RA CAN
BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CIGS WILL BE MORE VFR TO
OCNL MVFR INTO MID MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST
GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR
WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/NF/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1141 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST THURSDAY...

WILL BE DROPPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR SW COUNTIES ON
SCHEDULE AT NOON. WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SURFACE WAVE WELL EAST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH A DRYING COMPONENT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS..OVER 3000 FEET... REPORTED ABOUT 3
INCHES FROM THIS EVENT IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER FELL YESTERDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE
CHILLY FOR ANY BACKYARD FOOTBALL GAMES...MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO MID-40S FAR EAST...WHICH IS 10-15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST THURSDAY...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA WILL HEAD EAST PASSING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE BANDS OF -SN OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAKING FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS INCLUDING AREAS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG. MOSTLY -RA CAN
BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CIGS WILL BE MORE VFR TO
OCNL MVFR INTO MID MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST
GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR
WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/NF/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
636 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING COLDER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL FINALLY SERVE
AS THE CABOOSE TO THE ONGOING WINTRY WEATHER TODAY AS IT PASSES ACROSS
THE NC RIDGES THIS MORNING AND TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN TEND TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN LIFT BACK OVER THE WEST/SW PORTIONS IN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SE WITH A WEAK INDUCED SURFACE WAVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT MOST OF
THE REGION IN A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP THIS MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING TO MAINLY THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION LOOKS IFFY BUT SUSPECT WILL SEE A FEW MORE
BANDS OF SNOW WEST THIS MORNING WITH ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPISH BEHIND THE PASSING VORT
AXIS. THEREFORE WILL BE LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE WITH
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY SW PORTIONS...AND ONLY SPOTTY
ADDED TOTALS HEADING OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY INIT AS
RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOULD ALSO SEE PATCHY/BANDS OF RAIN EAST
BUT PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES WHERE PRECIP COMES DOWN A BIT
HARDER. PRECIP MAY ALSO END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW PIEDMONT
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT PASSES. HOWEVER QPF LOOKING
RATHER LIGHT WITH A TENTH OR LESS MOST SPOTS TODAY EXCEPT UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OUT EAST AND ACROSS THE SW RIDGES. EXPECT A BREAK IN
POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN POSSIBLE AS DOWNSLOPE KICKS IN
AND BEFORE BETTER UPSLOPE DEVELOPS WEST THIS EVENING. KEPT HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS ALTHOUGH MAY BE EVEN COLDER SE
PENDING DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP COVERAGE THIS MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER TYPE
WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE -SHSN
ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BUT
THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST THURSDAY...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA WILL HEAD EAST PASSING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE BANDS OF -SN OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAKING FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS INCLUDING AREAS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG. MOSTLY -RA CAN
BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CIGS WILL BE MORE VFR TO
OCNL MVFR INTO MID MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST
GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR
WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270814
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
314 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING COLDER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL FINALLY SERVE
AS THE CABOOSE TO THE ONGOING WINTRY WEATHER TODAY AS IT PASSES ACROSS
THE NC RIDGES THIS MORNING AND TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN TEND TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN LIFT BACK OVER THE WEST/SW PORTIONS IN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SE WITH A WEAK INDUCED SURFACE WAVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT MOST OF
THE REGION IN A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP THIS MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING TO MAINLY THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION LOOKS IFFY BUT SUSPECT WILL SEE A FEW MORE
BANDS OF SNOW WEST THIS MORNING WITH ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPISH BEHIND THE PASSING VORT
AXIS. THEREFORE WILL BE LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE WITH
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY SW PORTIONS...AND ONLY SPOTTY
ADDED TOTALS HEADING OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY INIT AS
RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOULD ALSO SEE PATCHY/BANDS OF RAIN EAST
BUT PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES WHERE PRECIP COMES DOWN A BIT
HARDER. PRECIP MAY ALSO END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW PIEDMONT
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT PASSES. HOWEVER QPF LOOKING
RATHER LIGHT WITH A TENTH OR LESS MOST SPOTS TODAY EXCEPT UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OUT EAST AND ACROSS THE SW RIDGES. EXPECT A BREAK IN
POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN POSSIBLE AS DOWNSLOPE KICKS IN
AND BEFORE BETTER UPSLOPE DEVELOPS WEST THIS EVENING. KEPT HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS ALTHOUGH MAY BE EVEN COLDER SE
PENDING DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP COVERAGE THIS MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER TYPE
WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE -SHSN
ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BUT
THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270814
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
314 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING COLDER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL FINALLY SERVE
AS THE CABOOSE TO THE ONGOING WINTRY WEATHER TODAY AS IT PASSES ACROSS
THE NC RIDGES THIS MORNING AND TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN TEND TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN LIFT BACK OVER THE WEST/SW PORTIONS IN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SE WITH A WEAK INDUCED SURFACE WAVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT MOST OF
THE REGION IN A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP THIS MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING TO MAINLY THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION LOOKS IFFY BUT SUSPECT WILL SEE A FEW MORE
BANDS OF SNOW WEST THIS MORNING WITH ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPISH BEHIND THE PASSING VORT
AXIS. THEREFORE WILL BE LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE WITH
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY SW PORTIONS...AND ONLY SPOTTY
ADDED TOTALS HEADING OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY INIT AS
RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOULD ALSO SEE PATCHY/BANDS OF RAIN EAST
BUT PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES WHERE PRECIP COMES DOWN A BIT
HARDER. PRECIP MAY ALSO END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW PIEDMONT
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT PASSES. HOWEVER QPF LOOKING
RATHER LIGHT WITH A TENTH OR LESS MOST SPOTS TODAY EXCEPT UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OUT EAST AND ACROSS THE SW RIDGES. EXPECT A BREAK IN
POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN POSSIBLE AS DOWNSLOPE KICKS IN
AND BEFORE BETTER UPSLOPE DEVELOPS WEST THIS EVENING. KEPT HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS ALTHOUGH MAY BE EVEN COLDER SE
PENDING DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP COVERAGE THIS MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER TYPE
WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE -SHSN
ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BUT
THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270606
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
106 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270606
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
106 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
105 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
105 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270300
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGHT THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH ANOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR FOG IN THE WEST. RESTRICTIONS WILL
LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z THU FOR
BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL
BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RCS
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270008
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
708 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA WITH SKIES AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ABOVE THE MELTING
SNOW COVER. CLOUD COVER STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN PER
DISCUSSION BELOW AS CLIPPER APPROACHES.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER
TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF
THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO
ADVSY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR FOG IN THE WEST. RESTRICTIONS WILL
LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z THU FOR
BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL
BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RCS
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270008
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
708 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA WITH SKIES AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ABOVE THE MELTING
SNOW COVER. CLOUD COVER STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN PER
DISCUSSION BELOW AS CLIPPER APPROACHES.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER
TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF
THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO
ADVSY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR FOG IN THE WEST. RESTRICTIONS WILL
LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z THU FOR
BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL
BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RCS
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 262050
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

RADAR SHOWS JUST SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF VA WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOWING SOME SUN BREAKING
OUT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIDGE. BELIEVE THINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER
TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF
THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO
ADVSY CRITERIA.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY IMPROVING A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION ALSO STARTING TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR SITES WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3KFT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY A WET SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.

FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z WED
FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BECOME
GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 262050
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

RADAR SHOWS JUST SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF VA WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOWING SOME SUN BREAKING
OUT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIDGE. BELIEVE THINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER
TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF
THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO
ADVSY CRITERIA.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY IMPROVING A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION ALSO STARTING TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR SITES WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3KFT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY A WET SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.

FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z WED
FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BECOME
GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261756
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM BLUEFIELD TO
YADKINVILLE AT 10:30AM. MODERATE TO HEAVY WEST SNOW WAS FALLING
JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 32 TO 36
DEGREES. AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE EXPECT RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE
TEMPERATURES ARE MID 30S OR HIGHER.

HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR
TRENDS. NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 220 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING QUICKLY NNE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS/EC INITS. HOWEVER PRECIP GIVEN
SUCH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF HIGHER RATES...HAS BEEN
SLOW TO TRANSITION TO SNOW EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER PEAKS FROM BEECH
MTN UP TO MT ROGERS ATTM. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW
HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THIS AXIS TO PIVOT INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST BY MIDDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR VA BEACH AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON HEAVIER QPF ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE
EAST...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PTYPE AS THE NAM
REMAINS QUITE COLD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PER LOW PRESSURE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE GFS/EC STAYING WARMER THROUGH
12Z BEFORE PIVOTING IN COLDER THICKNESS AS THE COASTAL STARTS TO
WIND UP THIS MORNING. THIS TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE SNOW LEVEL
CRITICAL TO SEEING 3-6 INCHES IN SPOTS ON THE RIDGES AND LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IN OTHERS AS THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOKS
TO SET UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING POSSIBLY PRODUCING
HEAVIER TOTALS IN FLOYD/CARROLL COUNTIES. APPEARS BEST
LIFT...DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION TO ALL COINCIDE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10-15Z /5A-10A ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND WITHIN A BELT OF MORE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THIS IS WHEN AN INCH/HOUR TYPE
SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AS GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CSI BANDING
ESPCLY AS BEST LIFT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
SNOW LEVELS CHASE DOWN THE RIDGES ABOVE 2500 FEET AND INTO THE
VALLEYS.

OTRW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MORE BLENDED/CONSENSUS APPROACH AND KEEP
AMOUNTS GENERALLY CLOSE TO GOING VALUES FOR NOW. ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO
LOWER AT THE ONSET SW...AND BY AFTERNOON GIVEN EXITING MOISTURE. FARTHER
EAST...DEGREE OF ACCUMULATION INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS
NE DEPENDENT UPON GETTING SNOW ON THE GROUND PRIOR TO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND RATE OF FALL. THUS FEW CHANGES TO GOING HEADLINES FOR
NOW ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE THINGS START TO
CHANGEOVER FROM WEST TO EAST PRIOR TO 12Z. SHOULD SEE POPS QUICKLY
TAPER FROM SW TO NE BY 21Z/4PM WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NW LATE.
HIGH TEMPS IFFY WITH READINGS TO FALL WITH PRECIP EARLY...THEN
PERHAPS REBOUND A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE EXITS SO
BUMPED UP HIGHS A NOTCH ESPCLY GIVEN CURRENT WARMER READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THIS LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT 2
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INTO THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. BECAUSE
OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THANKSGIVING FOR THESE LOCATIONS RUNNING FROM
MIDNIGHT TO NOON. GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/COLDER AIR ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN
SPOTS...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID. THE LOW WILL PASS TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...ENDING PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST AND
LEAVING ONLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES IN
THE WEST THAT WILL LINGER INTO LATE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S IN THE
WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CARRY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS
SUCH...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING
IN THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY IMPROVING A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION ALSO STARTING TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR SITES WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3KFT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY A WET SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.

FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z WED
FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BECOME
GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ019-
     020-024-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ044.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...AMS/NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261756
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM BLUEFIELD TO
YADKINVILLE AT 10:30AM. MODERATE TO HEAVY WEST SNOW WAS FALLING
JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 32 TO 36
DEGREES. AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE EXPECT RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE
TEMPERATURES ARE MID 30S OR HIGHER.

HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR
TRENDS. NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 220 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING QUICKLY NNE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS/EC INITS. HOWEVER PRECIP GIVEN
SUCH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF HIGHER RATES...HAS BEEN
SLOW TO TRANSITION TO SNOW EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER PEAKS FROM BEECH
MTN UP TO MT ROGERS ATTM. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW
HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THIS AXIS TO PIVOT INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST BY MIDDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR VA BEACH AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON HEAVIER QPF ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE
EAST...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PTYPE AS THE NAM
REMAINS QUITE COLD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PER LOW PRESSURE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE GFS/EC STAYING WARMER THROUGH
12Z BEFORE PIVOTING IN COLDER THICKNESS AS THE COASTAL STARTS TO
WIND UP THIS MORNING. THIS TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE SNOW LEVEL
CRITICAL TO SEEING 3-6 INCHES IN SPOTS ON THE RIDGES AND LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IN OTHERS AS THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOKS
TO SET UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING POSSIBLY PRODUCING
HEAVIER TOTALS IN FLOYD/CARROLL COUNTIES. APPEARS BEST
LIFT...DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION TO ALL COINCIDE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10-15Z /5A-10A ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND WITHIN A BELT OF MORE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THIS IS WHEN AN INCH/HOUR TYPE
SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AS GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CSI BANDING
ESPCLY AS BEST LIFT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
SNOW LEVELS CHASE DOWN THE RIDGES ABOVE 2500 FEET AND INTO THE
VALLEYS.

OTRW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MORE BLENDED/CONSENSUS APPROACH AND KEEP
AMOUNTS GENERALLY CLOSE TO GOING VALUES FOR NOW. ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO
LOWER AT THE ONSET SW...AND BY AFTERNOON GIVEN EXITING MOISTURE. FARTHER
EAST...DEGREE OF ACCUMULATION INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS
NE DEPENDENT UPON GETTING SNOW ON THE GROUND PRIOR TO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND RATE OF FALL. THUS FEW CHANGES TO GOING HEADLINES FOR
NOW ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE THINGS START TO
CHANGEOVER FROM WEST TO EAST PRIOR TO 12Z. SHOULD SEE POPS QUICKLY
TAPER FROM SW TO NE BY 21Z/4PM WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NW LATE.
HIGH TEMPS IFFY WITH READINGS TO FALL WITH PRECIP EARLY...THEN
PERHAPS REBOUND A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE EXITS SO
BUMPED UP HIGHS A NOTCH ESPCLY GIVEN CURRENT WARMER READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THIS LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT 2
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INTO THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. BECAUSE
OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THANKSGIVING FOR THESE LOCATIONS RUNNING FROM
MIDNIGHT TO NOON. GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/COLDER AIR ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN
SPOTS...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID. THE LOW WILL PASS TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...ENDING PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST AND
LEAVING ONLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES IN
THE WEST THAT WILL LINGER INTO LATE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S IN THE
WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CARRY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS
SUCH...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING
IN THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY IMPROVING A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION ALSO STARTING TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR SITES WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3KFT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY A WET SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.

FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z WED
FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BECOME
GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ019-
     020-024-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ044.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...AMS/NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261557
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1057 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM BLUEFIELD TO
YADKINVILLE AT 10:30AM. MODERATE TO HEAVY WEST SNOW WAS FALLING
JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 32 TO 36
DEGREES. AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE EXPECT RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE
TEMPERATURES ARE MID 30S OR HIGHER.

HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR
TRENDS. NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 220 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING QUICKLY NNE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS/EC INITS. HOWEVER PRECIP GIVEN
SUCH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF HIGHER RATES...HAS BEEN
SLOW TO TRANSITION TO SNOW EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER PEAKS FROM BEECH
MTN UP TO MT ROGERS ATTM. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW
HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THIS AXIS TO PIVOT INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST BY MIDDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR VA BEACH AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON HEAVIER QPF ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE
EAST...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PTYPE AS THE NAM
REMAINS QUITE COLD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PER LOW PRESSURE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE GFS/EC STAYING WARMER THROUGH
12Z BEFORE PIVOTING IN COLDER THICKNESS AS THE COASTAL STARTS TO
WIND UP THIS MORNING. THIS TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE SNOW LEVEL
CRITICAL TO SEEING 3-6 INCHES IN SPOTS ON THE RIDGES AND LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IN OTHERS AS THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOKS
TO SET UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING POSSIBLY PRODUCING
HEAVIER TOTALS IN FLOYD/CARROLL COUNTIES. APPEARS BEST
LIFT...DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION TO ALL COINCIDE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10-15Z /5A-10A ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND WITHIN A BELT OF MORE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THIS IS WHEN AN INCH/HOUR TYPE
SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AS GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CSI BANDING
ESPCLY AS BEST LIFT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
SNOW LEVELS CHASE DOWN THE RIDGES ABOVE 2500 FEET AND INTO THE
VALLEYS.

OTRW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MORE BLENDED/CONSENSUS APPROACH AND KEEP
AMOUNTS GENERALLY CLOSE TO GOING VALUES FOR NOW. ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO
LOWER AT THE ONSET SW...AND BY AFTERNOON GIVEN EXITING MOISTURE. FARTHER
EAST...DEGREE OF ACCUMULATION INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS
NE DEPENDENT UPON GETTING SNOW ON THE GROUND PRIOR TO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND RATE OF FALL. THUS FEW CHANGES TO GOING HEADLINES FOR
NOW ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE THINGS START TO
CHANGEOVER FROM WEST TO EAST PRIOR TO 12Z. SHOULD SEE POPS QUICKLY
TAPER FROM SW TO NE BY 21Z/4PM WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NW LATE.
HIGH TEMPS IFFY WITH READINGS TO FALL WITH PRECIP EARLY...THEN
PERHAPS REBOUND A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE EXITS SO
BUMPED UP HIGHS A NOTCH ESPCLY GIVEN CURRENT WARMER READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THIS LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT 2
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INTO THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. BECAUSE
OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THANKSGIVING FOR THESE LOCATIONS RUNNING FROM
MIDNIGHT TO NOON. GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/COLDER AIR ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN
SPOTS...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID. THE LOW WILL PASS TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...ENDING PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST AND
LEAVING ONLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES IN
THE WEST THAT WILL LINGER INTO LATE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S IN THE
WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CARRY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS
SUCH...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING
IN THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. MOST
OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS...ESPCLY
KBCB AND WEST WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE AT KROA THIS
MORNING...AND AT KLYH BEFORE THINGS START TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WILL BE MAINTAINING OVERALL IFR/LIFR OVER THE WEST
UNTIL SNOW/RAIN ENDS WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE EAST.

THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IMPACTING
NUMEROUS FLIGHT TERMINALS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FOR THE LOCAL REGION...THIS STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID/LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
18-21Z/1-4PM...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SECOND WEATHER FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY KBLF/KLWB WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME FOG FORMATION GIVEN THE WET GROUND WITH MVFR
TO IFR LIKELY FROM KBCB AND POINTS EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY PERSIST AT KBLF/KLWB
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. OTRW EXPECTING
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO BRING A RETURN TO VFR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR WINS OUT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD VFR TO END THE
WEEK. BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
SLIDE DOWN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...BUT ANY PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ019-
     020-024-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ042>044.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...AMS/NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261557
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1057 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM BLUEFIELD TO
YADKINVILLE AT 10:30AM. MODERATE TO HEAVY WEST SNOW WAS FALLING
JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 32 TO 36
DEGREES. AS THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE EXPECT RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE
TEMPERATURES ARE MID 30S OR HIGHER.

HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR
TRENDS. NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 220 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING QUICKLY NNE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS/EC INITS. HOWEVER PRECIP GIVEN
SUCH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF HIGHER RATES...HAS BEEN
SLOW TO TRANSITION TO SNOW EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER PEAKS FROM BEECH
MTN UP TO MT ROGERS ATTM. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW
HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THIS AXIS TO PIVOT INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST BY MIDDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR VA BEACH AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON HEAVIER QPF ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE
EAST...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PTYPE AS THE NAM
REMAINS QUITE COLD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PER LOW PRESSURE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE GFS/EC STAYING WARMER THROUGH
12Z BEFORE PIVOTING IN COLDER THICKNESS AS THE COASTAL STARTS TO
WIND UP THIS MORNING. THIS TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE SNOW LEVEL
CRITICAL TO SEEING 3-6 INCHES IN SPOTS ON THE RIDGES AND LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IN OTHERS AS THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOKS
TO SET UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING POSSIBLY PRODUCING
HEAVIER TOTALS IN FLOYD/CARROLL COUNTIES. APPEARS BEST
LIFT...DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION TO ALL COINCIDE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10-15Z /5A-10A ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND WITHIN A BELT OF MORE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THIS IS WHEN AN INCH/HOUR TYPE
SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AS GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CSI BANDING
ESPCLY AS BEST LIFT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
SNOW LEVELS CHASE DOWN THE RIDGES ABOVE 2500 FEET AND INTO THE
VALLEYS.

OTRW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MORE BLENDED/CONSENSUS APPROACH AND KEEP
AMOUNTS GENERALLY CLOSE TO GOING VALUES FOR NOW. ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO
LOWER AT THE ONSET SW...AND BY AFTERNOON GIVEN EXITING MOISTURE. FARTHER
EAST...DEGREE OF ACCUMULATION INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS
NE DEPENDENT UPON GETTING SNOW ON THE GROUND PRIOR TO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND RATE OF FALL. THUS FEW CHANGES TO GOING HEADLINES FOR
NOW ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE THINGS START TO
CHANGEOVER FROM WEST TO EAST PRIOR TO 12Z. SHOULD SEE POPS QUICKLY
TAPER FROM SW TO NE BY 21Z/4PM WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NW LATE.
HIGH TEMPS IFFY WITH READINGS TO FALL WITH PRECIP EARLY...THEN
PERHAPS REBOUND A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE EXITS SO
BUMPED UP HIGHS A NOTCH ESPCLY GIVEN CURRENT WARMER READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THIS LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT 2
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INTO THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. BECAUSE
OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THANKSGIVING FOR THESE LOCATIONS RUNNING FROM
MIDNIGHT TO NOON. GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/COLDER AIR ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN
SPOTS...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID. THE LOW WILL PASS TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...ENDING PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST AND
LEAVING ONLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES IN
THE WEST THAT WILL LINGER INTO LATE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S IN THE
WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CARRY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS
SUCH...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING
IN THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. MOST
OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS...ESPCLY
KBCB AND WEST WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE AT KROA THIS
MORNING...AND AT KLYH BEFORE THINGS START TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WILL BE MAINTAINING OVERALL IFR/LIFR OVER THE WEST
UNTIL SNOW/RAIN ENDS WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE EAST.

THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IMPACTING
NUMEROUS FLIGHT TERMINALS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FOR THE LOCAL REGION...THIS STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID/LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
18-21Z/1-4PM...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SECOND WEATHER FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY KBLF/KLWB WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME FOG FORMATION GIVEN THE WET GROUND WITH MVFR
TO IFR LIKELY FROM KBCB AND POINTS EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY PERSIST AT KBLF/KLWB
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. OTRW EXPECTING
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO BRING A RETURN TO VFR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR WINS OUT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD VFR TO END THE
WEEK. BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
SLIDE DOWN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...BUT ANY PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ019-
     020-024-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ042>044.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...AMS/NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261109
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
609 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 220 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING QUICKLY NNE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS/EC INITS. HOWEVER PRECIP GIVEN
SUCH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF HIGHER RATES...HAS BEEN
SLOW TO TRANSITION TO SNOW EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER PEAKS FROM BEECH
MTN UP TO MT ROGERS ATTM. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW
HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THIS AXIS TO PIVOT INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST BY MIDDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR VA BEACH AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON HEAVIER QPF ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE
EAST...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PTYPE AS THE NAM
REMAINS QUITE COLD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PER LOW PRESSURE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE GFS/EC STAYING WARMER THROUGH
12Z BEFORE PIVOTING IN COLDER THICKNESS AS THE COASTAL STARTS TO
WIND UP THIS MORNING. THIS TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE SNOW LEVEL
CRITICAL TO SEEING 3-6 INCHES IN SPOTS ON THE RIDGES AND LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IN OTHERS AS THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOKS
TO SET UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING POSSIBLY PRODUCING
HEAVIER TOTALS IN FLOYD/CARROLL CTYS. APPEARS BEST LIFT...DYNAMIC
COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION TO ALL COINCIDE BETWEEN ABOUT 10-15Z
/5A-10A ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AND WITHIN A BELT OF MORE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW. THIS IS WHEN AN INCH/HOUR TYPE SNOWFALL RATES
POSSIBLE AS GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CSI BANDING ESPCLY AS BEST
LIFT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND SNOW LEVELS
CHASE DOWN THE RIDGES ABOVE 2500 FEET AND INTO THE VALLEYS.

OTRW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MORE BLENDED/CONSENSUS APPROACH AND KEEP
AMOUNTS GENERALLY CLOSE TO GOING VALUES FOR NOW. ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO
LOWER AT THE ONSET SW...AND BY AFTERNOON GIVEN EXITING MOISTURE. FARTHER
EAST...DEGREE OF ACCUMULATION INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS
NE DEPENDENT UPON GETTING SNOW ON THE GROUND PRIOR TO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND RATE OF FALL. THUS FEW CHANGES TO GOING HEADLINES FOR
NOW ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE THINGS START TO
CHANGEOVER FROM WEST TO EAST PRIOR TO 12Z. SHOULD SEE POPS QUICKLY
TAPER FROM SW TO NE BY 21Z/4PM WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NW LATE.
HIGH TEMPS IFFY WITH READINGS TO FALL WITH PRECIP EARLY...THEN
PERHAPS REBOUND A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE EXITS SO
BUMPED UP HIGHS A NOTCH ESPCLY GIVEN CURRENT WARMER READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THIS LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT 2
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INTO THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. BECAUSE
OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THANKSGIVING FOR THESE LOCATIONS RUNNING FROM
MIDNIGHT TO NOON. GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/COLDER AIR ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN
SPOTS...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID. THE LOW WILL PASS TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...ENDING PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST AND
LEAVING ONLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES IN
THE WEST THAT WILL LINGER INTO LATE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S IN THE
WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CARRY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS
SUCH...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING
IN THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. MOST
OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS...ESPCLY
KBCB AND WEST WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE AT KROA THIS
MORNING...AND AT KLYH BEFORE THINGS START TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WILL BE MAINTAINING OVERALL IFR/LIFR OVER THE WEST
UNTIL SNOW/RAIN ENDS WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE EAST.

THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IMPACTING
NUMEROUS FLIGHT TERMINALS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FOR THE LOCAL REGION...THIS STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID/LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
18-21Z/1-4PM...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SECOND WEATHER FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY KBLF/KLWB WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME FOG FORMATION GIVEN THE WET GROUND WITH MVFR
TO IFR LIKELY FROM KBCB AND POINTS EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY PERSIST AT KBLF/KLWB
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. OTRW EXPECTING
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO BRING A RETURN TO VFR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR WINS OUT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD VFR TO END THE
WEEK. BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
SLIDE DOWN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...BUT ANY PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ019-
     020-024-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ042>044.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS/NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260910
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
410 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 220 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING QUICKLY NNE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS/EC INITS. HOWEVER PRECIP GIVEN
SUCH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF HIGHER RATES...HAS BEEN
SLOW TO TRANSITION TO SNOW EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER PEAKS FROM BEECH
MTN UP TO MT ROGERS ATTM. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW
HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THIS AXIS TO PIVOT INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST BY MIDDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR VA BEACH AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON HEAVIER QPF ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE
EAST...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PTYPE AS THE NAM
REMAINS QUITE COLD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PER LOW PRESSURE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE GFS/EC STAYING WARMER THROUGH
12Z BEFORE PIVOTING IN COLDER THICKNESS AS THE COASTAL STARTS TO
WIND UP THIS MORNING. THIS TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE SNOW LEVEL
CRITICAL TO SEEING 3-6 INCHES IN SPOTS ON THE RIDGES AND LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IN OTHERS AS THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOKS
TO SET UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. APPEARS BEST
LIFT...DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION TO ALL COINCIDE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10-15Z ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND WITHIN A BELT OF MORE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THIS IS WHEN AN INCH/HOUR TYPE SNOWFALL
RATES POSSIBLE AS GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CSI BANDING ESPCLY AS
BEST LIFT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND SNOW
LEVELS CHASE DOWN THE RIDGES ABOVE 2500 FEET AND INTO THE VALLEYS.
HOWEVER THIS LOOKING MORE AND MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT STILL A CLOSE CALL.

OTRW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MORE BLENDED/CONSENSUS APPROACH AND KEEP
AMOUNTS GENERALLY CLOSE TO GOING VALUES FOR NOW. ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO
LOWER AT THE ONSET SW...AND BY AFTERNOON GIVEN EXITING MOISTURE. FARTHER
EAST...DEGREE OF ACCUMULATION INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS
NE DEPENDENT UPON GETTING SNOW ON THE GROUND PRIOR TO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND RATE OF FALL. THUS FEW CHANGES TO GOING HEADLINES FOR
NOW ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE THINGS START TO
CHANGEOVER FROM WEST TO EAST PRIOR TO 12Z. SHOULD SEE POPS QUICKLY
TAPER FROM SW TO NE BY 21Z/4PM WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NW LATE.
HIGH TEMPS IFFY WITH READINGS TO FALL WITH PRECIP EARLY...THEN
PERHAPS REBOUND A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE EXITS SO
BUMPED UP HIGHS A NOTCH ESPCLY GIVEN CURRENT WARMER READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THIS LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT 2
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INTO THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. BECAUSE
OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THANKSGIVING FOR THESE LOCATIONS RUNNING FROM
MIDNIGHT TO NOON. GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/COLDER AIR ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN
SPOTS...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID. THE LOW WILL PASS TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...ENDING PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST AND
LEAVING ONLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES IN
THE WEST THAT WILL LINGER INTO LATE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S IN THE
WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CARRY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS
SUCH...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING
IN THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RAPID DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
EVENING RNK SOUNDING PROFILE INDICATED ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH ABOUT 9KFT AGL. THIS LAYER IS EXPECTED TO COOL RAPIDLY
WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
DROPPING TO WITHIN 1-3KFT OF THE SURFACE BEFORE DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WHICH INCLUDE KBLF/KLWB/KBCB ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 1AM AND 3AM. INITIAL P-TYPE
WILL BE RAIN BUT THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK AS THE
FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO WITHIN 1KFT OF THE SURFACE. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY AT THESE THREE AIRPORTS THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PLOWABLE SNOW MOST LIKELY AT KBLF/KLWB...PERHAPS
AT KBCB. BETWEEN 8AM AND NOON...SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER EAST...CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE VCNTY OF KROA...RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...THEN MIXING WITH AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. FREEZING LEVEL AT KROA IS EXPECTED
TO DROP TO WITHIN 2KFT OF THE SURFACE...CERTAINLY ALLOWING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE SURROUNDING RIDGES...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AT THE AIRPORT DUE TO THE
WARMER VALLEY TEMPERATURES. IN SPITE OF THE WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT DE-ICING PROCEDURES WILL
BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS AT KROA WED MORNING.

SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT KLYH AS WELL...BUT FOR BOTH KLYH AND
KDAN DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACT FROM SNOW ON RUNWAY SURFACES AT THIS
TIME...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN OCCURRING AT BOTH KLYH AND KDAN...THE
FREEZING LEVEL ONLY DROPPING TO WITHIN 3KFT OF THE SURFACE.

DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY 09Z/3AM WEDNESDAY...WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN SNOW
FROM KBCB WEST FROM ABOUT 10Z/5AM - 16Z/NOON.

THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IMPACTING
NUMEROUS FLIGHT TERMINALS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FOR THE LOCAL REGION...THIS STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID/LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
18-21Z...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SECOND WEATHER FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO
2 INCHES ARE LIKELY AT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB...AND WITH A DUSTING TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY PERSIST AT KBLF/KLWB
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. OTRW EXPECTING
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO BRING A RETURN TO VFR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR WINS OUT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD VFR TO END THE
WEEK. BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
SLIDE DOWN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...BUT ANY PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ019-
     020-024-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ042>044.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS/NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260910
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
410 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 220 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING QUICKLY NNE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS/EC INITS. HOWEVER PRECIP GIVEN
SUCH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF HIGHER RATES...HAS BEEN
SLOW TO TRANSITION TO SNOW EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER PEAKS FROM BEECH
MTN UP TO MT ROGERS ATTM. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW
HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THIS AXIS TO PIVOT INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST BY MIDDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR VA BEACH AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON HEAVIER QPF ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE
EAST...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PTYPE AS THE NAM
REMAINS QUITE COLD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PER LOW PRESSURE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE GFS/EC STAYING WARMER THROUGH
12Z BEFORE PIVOTING IN COLDER THICKNESS AS THE COASTAL STARTS TO
WIND UP THIS MORNING. THIS TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE SNOW LEVEL
CRITICAL TO SEEING 3-6 INCHES IN SPOTS ON THE RIDGES AND LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IN OTHERS AS THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOKS
TO SET UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. APPEARS BEST
LIFT...DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION TO ALL COINCIDE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10-15Z ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND WITHIN A BELT OF MORE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THIS IS WHEN AN INCH/HOUR TYPE SNOWFALL
RATES POSSIBLE AS GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CSI BANDING ESPCLY AS
BEST LIFT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND SNOW
LEVELS CHASE DOWN THE RIDGES ABOVE 2500 FEET AND INTO THE VALLEYS.
HOWEVER THIS LOOKING MORE AND MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT STILL A CLOSE CALL.

OTRW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MORE BLENDED/CONSENSUS APPROACH AND KEEP
AMOUNTS GENERALLY CLOSE TO GOING VALUES FOR NOW. ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO
LOWER AT THE ONSET SW...AND BY AFTERNOON GIVEN EXITING MOISTURE. FARTHER
EAST...DEGREE OF ACCUMULATION INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS
NE DEPENDENT UPON GETTING SNOW ON THE GROUND PRIOR TO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND RATE OF FALL. THUS FEW CHANGES TO GOING HEADLINES FOR
NOW ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE THINGS START TO
CHANGEOVER FROM WEST TO EAST PRIOR TO 12Z. SHOULD SEE POPS QUICKLY
TAPER FROM SW TO NE BY 21Z/4PM WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NW LATE.
HIGH TEMPS IFFY WITH READINGS TO FALL WITH PRECIP EARLY...THEN
PERHAPS REBOUND A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE EXITS SO
BUMPED UP HIGHS A NOTCH ESPCLY GIVEN CURRENT WARMER READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THIS LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT 2
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INTO THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. BECAUSE
OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THANKSGIVING FOR THESE LOCATIONS RUNNING FROM
MIDNIGHT TO NOON. GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/COLDER AIR ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN
SPOTS...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID. THE LOW WILL PASS TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...ENDING PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST AND
LEAVING ONLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES IN
THE WEST THAT WILL LINGER INTO LATE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S IN THE
WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CARRY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS
SUCH...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING
IN THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RAPID DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
EVENING RNK SOUNDING PROFILE INDICATED ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH ABOUT 9KFT AGL. THIS LAYER IS EXPECTED TO COOL RAPIDLY
WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
DROPPING TO WITHIN 1-3KFT OF THE SURFACE BEFORE DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WHICH INCLUDE KBLF/KLWB/KBCB ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 1AM AND 3AM. INITIAL P-TYPE
WILL BE RAIN BUT THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK AS THE
FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO WITHIN 1KFT OF THE SURFACE. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY AT THESE THREE AIRPORTS THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PLOWABLE SNOW MOST LIKELY AT KBLF/KLWB...PERHAPS
AT KBCB. BETWEEN 8AM AND NOON...SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER EAST...CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE VCNTY OF KROA...RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...THEN MIXING WITH AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. FREEZING LEVEL AT KROA IS EXPECTED
TO DROP TO WITHIN 2KFT OF THE SURFACE...CERTAINLY ALLOWING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE SURROUNDING RIDGES...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AT THE AIRPORT DUE TO THE
WARMER VALLEY TEMPERATURES. IN SPITE OF THE WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT DE-ICING PROCEDURES WILL
BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS AT KROA WED MORNING.

SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT KLYH AS WELL...BUT FOR BOTH KLYH AND
KDAN DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACT FROM SNOW ON RUNWAY SURFACES AT THIS
TIME...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN OCCURRING AT BOTH KLYH AND KDAN...THE
FREEZING LEVEL ONLY DROPPING TO WITHIN 3KFT OF THE SURFACE.

DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY 09Z/3AM WEDNESDAY...WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN SNOW
FROM KBCB WEST FROM ABOUT 10Z/5AM - 16Z/NOON.

THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IMPACTING
NUMEROUS FLIGHT TERMINALS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FOR THE LOCAL REGION...THIS STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID/LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
18-21Z...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SECOND WEATHER FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO
2 INCHES ARE LIKELY AT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB...AND WITH A DUSTING TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY PERSIST AT KBLF/KLWB
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. OTRW EXPECTING
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO BRING A RETURN TO VFR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR WINS OUT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD VFR TO END THE
WEEK. BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
SLIDE DOWN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...BUT ANY PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ019-
     020-024-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ042>044.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS/NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM





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