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000
FXUS61 KRNK 310902
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
502 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE
GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRICK OR TREAT. THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER...ALTHOUGH QUIET AND NEAR
NORMAL FEELING AT THE MOMENT...WILL CHANGE INTO A DIFFERENT
COSTUME BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL START OFF RELATIVELY
BRIGHT PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE...BUT AS THE HIGH FADES TO OUR
EAST...SKIES WILL DARKEN FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 2PM
AND THEN MOVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...BUT WILL FALL 5 TO 8 DEGREES SHORT
OF OUR NORMAL HIGH FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...

IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE GREAT PUMPKIN I THINK YOU ARE IN FOR A
TRICK INSTEAD OF A TREAT. THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
WEARING A SCARY COSTUME...COURTESY OF THE MANITOBA MAULER (LOW
PRESSURE COMING FROM THE CANADIAN PROVINCE OF MANITOBA). THIS FAST
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DIVE SOUTH FASTER THAN A HEADLESS HORSEMAN TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST
AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS, EXPECT MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY SATURDAY WITH
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. MODELS INDICATE THE CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO SNOW AT THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND THE
WITCHING HOUR TONIGHT. BOO.

WITH THE UPPER LOW HOVERING OVERHEAD SATURDAY...GOOSE BUMPS WILL
BE COMMON AS MUCH COLDER AIR GETS UNLEASHED VIA BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. 85H TEMPS PLUNGE TO NEAR M6 DEG C IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE A WINTRY PRANK WILL PLAY OUT DURING THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHER ELEVATION LANDSCAPE BECOMING MASKED IN A LAYER OF
WHITE. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS PROGGED TO PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC AND THIS SHOULD BE GROUND
ZERO FOR SNOW WHICH WILL ACCUMULATE 3 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS HIGHER IMPACT
AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VA INCLUDING MOUNT
ROGERS...WHICH MAY RECEIVE SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM TO PARTAKE
IN MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGLANDS OF VA...BUT NOT UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER
SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...THICKNESSES REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL SUPPORTING NOTHING BUT A COLD RAIN FOR THE DURATION
OF THE EVENT. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
STRONG DOWNSLOPE DRYING BEGINS PER INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF FOR THE
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT A QUARTER /0.25/ OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTHEAST CWA (LYNCHBURG-BUCKINGHAM)...TO NEAR ONE INCH
/1.00/ IN THE SOUTHWEST (BLUEFIELD-BOONE).

A WINTER SHIVER WILL BE FELT THROUGHOUT THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE L-M20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONSAND
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE SUNDAY IN SPITE OF ANY CLEARING...AND SET THE STAGE
FOR A WIDER-SPREAD KILLING FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
DIPPING AT OR BELOW 32 FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...RAMPING UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER SUNDAY.
ADVISORY SORT OF GUSTS...NEAR 40 KTS...ARE LIKELY VCNTY OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND TRAJECTORIES FROM 340 DEGREES
ALSO SUGGEST STRONG CROSS WINDS LIKELY ALONG I-77 VCNTY OF FANCY
GAP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FLOW PATTERN DURING THE
WEEK THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT VFR AT ALL PRIMARY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOME
MODELS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR IN THE MTNS OF WV VCNTY OF
KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO LEAD TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
LEE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THIS FEATURE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR THICKENING AND LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES TODAY WITH ONSET
OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z/2PM...SPREADING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH MVFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z/2PM TO 00Z/8PM TIME FRAME...THEN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
TONIGHT. THIS VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS WITH TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT PTYPE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...FROM BLUEFIELD WV (KBLF) TO BOONE NORTH
CAROLINA (KTNB). THIS AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PLAY OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NC/TN
MTNS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SMOKIES. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE STORM MOVES TO THE COAST
SATURDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
STRONG GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA...CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310630
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
230 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE
GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST. JUST A LITTLE SC ACROSS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE SUNK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT FROST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE GROWING SEASON IS OVER. PATCHY FROST TO
FORM IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VLY. NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AS CLOUDS WILL BE HEADING INTO THE
REGION BY DAWN.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORT WAVE COMING AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SATURATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE. THE PIEDMONT MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 85H
TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP P-TYPE AS A COLD
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY EVENING. 110 KNOT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROF SATURDAY THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW FEATURE WILL BE SUBTLE AS IT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN LOW SHARPLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY.

EXPECTING GOOD UPSLOPE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SO DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL BUT SPEEDS ARE
CERTAINLY PLENTY STRONG. BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECASTS SUGGEST A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COMES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.

MODELS PULL THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FASTER THAN THE NAM. BUT EVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
UPSLOPE WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING.

HAVE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. OTHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INFLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INCREASES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT VFR AT ALL PRIMARY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOME
MODELS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR IN THE MTNS OF WV VCNTY OF
KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO LEAD TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
LEE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THIS FEATURE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR THICKENING AND LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES TODAY WITH ONSET
OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z/2PM...SPREADING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH MVFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z/2PM TO 00Z/8PM TIME FRAME...THEN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
TONIGHT. THIS VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS WITH TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT PTYPE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...FROM BLUEFIELD WV (KBLF) TO BOONE NORTH
CAROLINA (KTNB). THIS AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PLAY OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NC/TN
MTNS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SMOKIES. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE STORM MOVES TO THE COAST
SATURDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
STRONG GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA...CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310336
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE
GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST. JUST A LITTLE SC ACROSS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE SUNK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT FROST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE GROWING SEASON IS OVER. PATCHY FROST TO
FORM IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VLY. NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AS CLOUDS WILL BE HEADING INTO THE
REGION BY DAWN.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORT WAVE COMING AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SATURATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE. THE PIEDMONT MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 85H
TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP P-TYPE AS A COLD
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY EVENING. 110 KNOT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROF SATURDAY THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW FEATURE WILL BE SUBTLE AS IT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN LOW SHARPLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY.

EXPECTING GOOD UPSLOPE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SO DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL BUT SPEEDS ARE
CERTAINLY PLENTY STRONG. BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECASTS SUGGEST A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COMES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.

MODELS PULL THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FASTER THAN THE NAM. BUT EVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
UPSLOPE WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING.

HAVE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. OTHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INFLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INCREASES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME MODELS HINTING AT
A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR BLF/LWB TO DROP INTO MVFR
CIGS...AND THINK THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CIGS
UPSTREAM...THOUGH THIS CLOUD FIELD HAS BEEN SHRINKING. CONFIDENCE
LOW ATTM IN THE CIGS OVERNIGHT OUT WEST. HAVE NO FOG IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY IF SKIES STAY
CLEAR AS WINDS ARE NEAR CALM.

LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS FAVOR RAIN MOVING INTO
BLF/LWB BY 20Z...THEN BCB BEFORE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
BE DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT HIGH END MVFR/LOW END
VFR IN THE MTNS...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN.

BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...AVIATION CONDITIONS START TO DROP TO
POOR AS THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SHIFT PTYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT LWB/BLF...AND INTO BCB BY
SAT MORNING. LOOKING FOR SUB VFR...AS LOW AS LIFR AT TIMES IN THE
MTNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH
AT THE TERMINALS AT BCB/ROA AND PERHAPS BLF COULD BE POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CIGS WILL IMPROVE IN THE PIEDMONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BLF/LWB AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR INTO TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310336
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE
GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST. JUST A LITTLE SC ACROSS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE SUNK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT FROST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE GROWING SEASON IS OVER. PATCHY FROST TO
FORM IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VLY. NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AS CLOUDS WILL BE HEADING INTO THE
REGION BY DAWN.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORT WAVE COMING AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SATURATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE. THE PIEDMONT MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 85H
TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP P-TYPE AS A COLD
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY EVENING. 110 KNOT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROF SATURDAY THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW FEATURE WILL BE SUBTLE AS IT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN LOW SHARPLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY.

EXPECTING GOOD UPSLOPE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SO DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL BUT SPEEDS ARE
CERTAINLY PLENTY STRONG. BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECASTS SUGGEST A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COMES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.

MODELS PULL THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FASTER THAN THE NAM. BUT EVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
UPSLOPE WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING.

HAVE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. OTHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INFLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INCREASES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME MODELS HINTING AT
A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR BLF/LWB TO DROP INTO MVFR
CIGS...AND THINK THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CIGS
UPSTREAM...THOUGH THIS CLOUD FIELD HAS BEEN SHRINKING. CONFIDENCE
LOW ATTM IN THE CIGS OVERNIGHT OUT WEST. HAVE NO FOG IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY IF SKIES STAY
CLEAR AS WINDS ARE NEAR CALM.

LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS FAVOR RAIN MOVING INTO
BLF/LWB BY 20Z...THEN BCB BEFORE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
BE DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT HIGH END MVFR/LOW END
VFR IN THE MTNS...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN.

BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...AVIATION CONDITIONS START TO DROP TO
POOR AS THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SHIFT PTYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT LWB/BLF...AND INTO BCB BY
SAT MORNING. LOOKING FOR SUB VFR...AS LOW AS LIFR AT TIMES IN THE
MTNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH
AT THE TERMINALS AT BCB/ROA AND PERHAPS BLF COULD BE POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CIGS WILL IMPROVE IN THE PIEDMONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BLF/LWB AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR INTO TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 302338
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF
MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET
WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SKIES CLEARED OUT MORE THIS EVENING THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO
LOWERED SKY COVER AND TEMPS SOME THIS EVENING INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
SCATTERED SC OUT EAST...AND LATEST RUN/NAM SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER CLOUDS FORMING IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH NE FLOW. THINK
AIRMASS IS DRY SO NOT REALLY SEEING THAT ATTM.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE OVER IN THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS BEING IN THE 30S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. PATCHY FROST EXPECTED IN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO ISOLATED IN RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORT WAVE COMING AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SATURATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE. THE PIEDMONT MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 85H
TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP P-TYPE AS A COLD
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY EVENING. 110 KNOT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROF SATURDAY THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW FEATURE WILL BE SUBTLE AS IT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN LOW SHARPLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY.

EXPECTING GOOD UPSLOPE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SO DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL BUT SPEEDS ARE
CERTAINLY PLENTY STRONG. BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECASTS SUGGEST A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COMES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.

MODELS PULL THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FASTER THAN THE NAM. BUT EVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
UPSLOPE WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING.

HAVE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. OTHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INFLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INCREASES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME MODELS HINTING AT
A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR BLF/LWB TO DROP INTO MVFR
CIGS...AND THINK THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CIGS
UPSTREAM...THOUGH THIS CLOUD FIELD HAS BEEN SHRINKING. CONFIDENCE
LOW ATTM IN THE CIGS OVERNIGHT OUT WEST. HAVE NO FOG IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY IF SKIES STAY
CLEAR AS WINDS ARE NEAR CALM.

LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS FAVOR RAIN MOVING INTO
BLF/LWB BY 20Z...THEN BCB BEFORE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
BE DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT HIGH END MVFR/LOW END
VFR IN THE MTNS...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN.

BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...AVIATION CONDITIONS START TO DROP TO
POOR AS THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SHIFT PTYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT LWB/BLF...AND INTO BCB BY
SAT MORNING. LOOKING FOR SUB VFR...AS LOW AS LIFR AT TIMES IN THE
MTNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH
AT THE TERMINALS AT BCB/ROA AND PERHAPS BLF COULD BE POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CIGS WILL IMPROVE IN THE PIEDMONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BLF/LWB AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR INTO TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 302001
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
401 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF
MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET
WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE OVER IN THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS BEING IN THE 30S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. PATCHY FROST EXPECTED IN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO ISOLATED IN RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORT WAVE COMING AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SATURATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE. THE PIEDMONT MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 85H
TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP P-TYPE AS A COLD
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY EVENING. 110 KNOT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROF SATURDAY THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW FEATURE WILL BE SUBTLE AS IT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN LOW SHARPLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY.

EXPECTING GOOD UPSLOPE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SO DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL BUT SPEEDS ARE
CERTAINLY PLENTY STRONG. BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECASTS SUGGEST A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COMES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.

MODELS PULL THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FASTER THAN THE NAM. BUT EVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
UPSLOPE WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING.

HAVE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. OTHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INFLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INCREASES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
PROMOTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHED
HIGH-END MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. INTO THIS
EVENING...A WEST WIND ALOFT WILL ERODING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY CLOUDS MAKING IT TO BCB/ROA SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
LOW-END VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DETERIORATING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/WV/AND FAR WESTERN VA...AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE NC MTNS AND UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR WRN VA AND WV. MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
DYNAMIC WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND HEAVY WET SNOW UNDERNEATH THE
CORE OF THE STORM WHICH IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NC
MTNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG CROSS BARRIER
FLOW...50 KTS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301721
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
121 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND TRIGGERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING
IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH MOST EVERYONE BEING IN THE 30S BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT
TO OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS. NOT A GOOD WEEKEND TO VENTURE INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNLESS YOU ARE PREPARED...BACKPACKERS/CAMPERS
HEED CAUTION.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT CROSSES THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW CENTER REACHES
CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...BUT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO PASS
RAPIDLY INTO AND OUT OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH
THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND WARNING LEVEL ACCUMULATION AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND FAR WESTERN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TOTALS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE NOT AN ISSUE
DUE TO WARMER GROUND...AND ONCE YOU GET EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL...JUST A COLD RAIN.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
PROMOTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHED
HIGH-END MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. INTO THIS
EVENING...A WEST WIND ALOFT WILL ERODING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY CLOUDS MAKING IT TO BCB/ROA SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
LOW-END VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DETERIORATING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/WV/AND FAR WESTERN VA...AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE NC MTNS AND UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR WRN VA AND WV. MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
DYNAMIC WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND HEAVY WET SNOW UNDERNEATH THE
CORE OF THE STORM WHICH IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NC
MTNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG CROSS BARRIER
FLOW...50 KTS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK/NF/PM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM/RCS
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301148
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND TRIGGERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. 1022MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRMASS IS SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY.
PATCHY FROST IS A GOOD BET TONIGHT BUT THE BIGGER STORY IS THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT MODELS ARE ZEROING IN ON FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT...WITH
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A TRICK OR TREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT
TO OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS. NOT A GOOD WEEKEND TO VENTURE INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNLESS YOU ARE PREPARED...BACKPACKERS/CAMPERS
HEED CAUTION.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT CROSSES THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW CENTER REACHES
CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...BUT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO PASS
RAPIDLY INTO AND OUT OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH
THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND WARNING LEVEL ACCUMULATION AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND FAR WESTERN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TOTALS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE NOT AN ISSUE
DUE TO WARMER GROUND...AND ONCE YOU GET EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL...JUST A COLD RAIN.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DETERIORATING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/WV/AND FAR WESTERN VA...AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE NC MTNS AND UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR WRN VA AND WV. MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
DYNAMIC WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND HEAVY WET SNOW UNDERNEATH THE
CORE OF THE STORM WHICH IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NC
MTNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG CROSS BARRIER
FLOW...50 KTS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK/NF/PM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300928
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
528 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND TRIGGERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. 1022MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRMASS IS SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY.
PATCHY FROST IS A GOOD BET TONIGHT BUT THE BIGGER STORY IS THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT MODELS ARE ZEROING IN ON FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT...WITH
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A TRICK OR TREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT
TO OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS. NOT A GOOD WEEKEND TO VENTURE INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNLESS YOU ARE PREPARED...BACKPACKERS/CAMPERS
HEED CAUTION.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT CROSSES THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW CENTER REACHES
CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...BUT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO PASS
RAPIDLY INTO AND OUT OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH
THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND WARNING LEVEL ACCUMULATION AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND FAR WESTERN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TOTALS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE NOT AN ISSUE
DUE TO WARMER GROUND...AND ONCE YOU GET EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL...JUST A COLD RAIN.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO LIKELY THROUGH MID
MORNING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF KLYH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR BRIEF PD OF IFR AT KLYH AND KDAN AROUND
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DETERIORATING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/WV/AND FAR WESTERN VA...AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE NC MTNS AND UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR WRN VA AND WV. MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
DYNAMIC WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND HEAVY WET SNOW UNDERNEATH THE
CORE OF THE STORM WHICH IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NC
MTNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG CROSS BARRIER
FLOW...50 KTS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK/NF/PM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300834
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
434 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND TRIGGERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. 1022MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRMASS IS SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY.
PATCHY FROST IS A GOOD BET TONIGHT BUT THE BIGGER STORY IS THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT MODELS ARE ZEROING IN ON FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT...WITH
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A TRICK OR TREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONCENSUS IS FOR THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT
TO OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS. NOT A GOOD WEEKEND TO VENTURE INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNLESS YOU ARE PREPARED...BACKPACKERS/CAMPERS
HEAD CAUTION.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT CROSSES THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW CENTER REACHES
CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
PASS RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD
ENOUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL...SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. TOO EARLY FOR CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH WARM GROUND...UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW RATES AND
QUESTIONS IN ACTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT WITH SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES THE MOUNTAINS...AND WARNING
LEVEL ACCUMULATION AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. SNOW TOTALS IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NOT AN ISSUE DUE TO WARMER GROUND...AND ONCE
YOU GET EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT
ALL...JUST A COLD RAIN.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES... SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO LIKELY THROUGH MID
MORNING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF KLYH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR BRIEF PD OF IFR AT KLYH AND KDAN AROUND
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DETERIORATING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/WV/AND FAR WESTERN VA...AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE NC MTNS AND UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR WRN VA AND WV. MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
DYNAMIC WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND HEAVY WET SNOW UNDERNEATH THE
CORE OF THE STORM WHICH IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NC
MTNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG CROSS BARRIER
FLOW...50 KTS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...PM/KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300338
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1138 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHOT OF COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA FROM
YANCEYVILLE NC NORTHEAST TO CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 1AM...WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT EAST
OVERNIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST AND FOG INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN FOR THE FAR WEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BLF AND LWB SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE
MOST OF THE DAY FOR THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR. MODELS AND BUFKIT DATA
SHOWED DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE -2 TO +2 RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT BUT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. STAYED ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW
CENTER REACHES CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING...AND
SPREAD EAST AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION
STARTS AS RAIN.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL...SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY.  TOO EARLY FOR CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
WARM GROUND...UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW RATES AND QUESTIONS IN ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST SNOW
EVENT WITH SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES THE MOUNTAINS...THEN ANY SNOW TOTALS WILL DECREASE AS
ONE HEADS EAST. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS OVER THE NAM SOLUTION
REGARDING SNOW TOTALS.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES... SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CIGS WILL STAY VFR WITH MID DECK CLEARING THE LYH/DAN AREA BY
MIDNIGHT-2AM EDT. THE 18Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS IN
THE WRN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LEANED TOWARD MORE
OPTIMISTIC CMC/GFS SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2-4KFT FROM
ROA-BCB WEST THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS AT BLF IN THE
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THIS.

WITH SOME GROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS...A POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AROUND 09Z AT BLF/LWB ERODING BY 12Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY EXPECTING VFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR- LIFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION...-SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS BUT LOOKS LIKE AVIATION ISSUES WILL ABOUND
FROM THE CAROLINAS UP THE EAST COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE SYSTEM AND AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES WITH TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PW/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
947 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHOT OF COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A STRAY SHOWER IS MOVING OVER GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS
HOUR...AND THE TREND ON RADAR INDICATES KEEPING POPS HIGHER OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS
THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW THE WINDS TO SLACKEN. THE 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST 0.37 INCHES.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS REDUCING POPS IN THE EAST WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING FROM FVX-DAN-SIF...ALONG THE BACK EDGE
OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST PER
CHANCE IN THETA-E AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THINK THE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING A LITTLE FASTER AS WELL...SO
LOWERED TEMPS SOME THIS EVENING AS LATEST TRENDS SHOW COOLER
READINGS THAN EARLIER FORECAST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE EAST
OF THE CWA BY 9 PM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB...RETURNS TO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN FOR THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BLF AND LWB
SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR.
MODELS AND BUFKIT DATA SHOWED DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS
WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE -2 TO +2 RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT BUT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH. STAYED ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW
CENTER REACHES CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING...AND
SPREAD EAST AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION
STARTS AS RAIN.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL...SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY.  TOO EARLY FOR CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
WARM GROUND...UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW RATES AND QUESTIONS IN ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST SNOW
EVENT WITH SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES THE MOUNTAINS...THEN ANY SNOW TOTALS WILL DECREASE AS
ONE HEADS EAST. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS OVER THE NAM SOLUTION
REGARDING SNOW TOTALS.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES... SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CIGS WILL STAY VFR WITH MID DECK CLEARING THE LYH/DAN AREA BY
MIDNIGHT-2AM EDT. THE 18Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS IN
THE WRN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LEANED TOWARD MORE
OPTIMISTIC CMC/GFS SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2-4KFT FROM
ROA-BCB WEST THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS AT BLF IN THE
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THIS.

WITH SOME GROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS...A POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AROUND 09Z AT BLF/LWB ERODING BY 12Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY EXPECTING VFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR- LIFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION...-SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS BUT LOOKS LIKE AVIATION ISSUES WILL ABOUND
FROM THE CAROLINAS UP THE EAST COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE SYSTEM AND AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES WITH TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PW/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292327
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHOT OF COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS REDUCING POPS IN THE EAST WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING FROM FVX-DAN-SIF...ALONG THE BACK EDGE
OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST PER
CHANCE IN THETA-E AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THINK THE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING A LITTLE FASTER AS WELL...SO
LOWERED TEMPS SOME THIS EVENING AS LATEST TRENDS SHOW COOLER
READINGS THAN EARLIER FORECAST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE EAST
OF THE CWA BY 9 PM.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB...RETURNS TO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN FOR THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BLF AND LWB
SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR.
MODELS AND BUFKIT DATA SHOWED DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS
WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE -2 TO +2 RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT BUT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH. STAYED ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW
CENTER REACHES CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING...AND
SPREAD EAST AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION
STARTS AS RAIN.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL...SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY.  TOO EARLY FOR CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
WARM GROUND...UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW RATES AND QUESTIONS IN ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST SNOW
EVENT WITH SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES THE MOUNTAINS...THEN ANY SNOW TOTALS WILL DECREASE AS
ONE HEADS EAST. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS OVER THE NAM SOLUTION
REGARDING SNOW TOTALS.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES... SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CIGS WILL STAY VFR WITH MID DECK CLEARING THE LYH/DAN AREA BY
MIDNIGHT-2AM EDT. THE 18Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS IN
THE WRN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LEANED TOWARD MORE
OPTIMISTIC CMC/GFS SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2-4KFT FROM
ROA-BCB WEST THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS AT BLF IN THE
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THIS.

WITH SOME GROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS...A POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AROUND 09Z AT BLF/LWB ERODING BY 12Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY EXPECTING VFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR- LIFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION...-SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS BUT LOOKS LIKE AVIATION ISSUES WILL ABOUND
FROM THE CAROLINAS UP THE EAST COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE SYSTEM AND AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES WITH TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292009
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHOT OF COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE DELMARVA TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. A FEW
WEAK SHORT WAVES WERE PRODUCING SPOTS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM BUCKINGHAM
COUNTY TO STOKES COUNTY. LOCAL WRF AND SREF HAD BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 03Z/11PM. ALREADY
SEEING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
TERM MODELS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB...RETURNS TO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN FOR THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BLF AND LWB
SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR.
MODELS AND BUFKIT DATA SHOWED DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS
WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE -2 TO +2 RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT BUT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH. STAYED ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW
CENTER REACHES CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING...AND
SPREAD EAST AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION
STARTS AS RAIN.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL...SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY.  TOO EARLY FOR CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
WARM GROUND...UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW RATES AND QUESTIONS IN ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST SNOW
EVENT WITH SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES THE MOUNTAINS...THEN ANY SNOW TOTALS WILL DECREASE AS
ONE HEADS EAST. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS OVER THE NAM SOLUTION
REGARDING SNOW TOTALS.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ALTANIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES... SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.




&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE
VISIBILITY AND WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KLYH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
18Z/2PM TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE REDEVELOPS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH.
WINDS LESS THAT 10KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CEILINGS WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS. TURNING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHERE CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR. WINDS DECREASING.
THURSDAY MORNING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE AREA
BRINGING IN CLOUDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ABOUT HOW FAST CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA IS THEN SLATED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A LONGER PERIOD OF
POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...-SHSN OR -SN
BLF/LWB AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS NEXT EVENT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF POOR MODEL
CONSISTENCY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE SYSTEM AND AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES WITH TIME.
OVERALL...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI-SUN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/NONE
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291746
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA
THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. A 50 TO 75 MILE
WIDE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ALONG THE LENGTH
OF THE FRONT. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AT 10AM WAS FROM JUST WEST
OF HOT SPRINGS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF WATAUGA COUNTY. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

THINK AMOUNTS FOR OUR CWA WILL BE RANGING FROM A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE WEST TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE EAST. AREAL COVERAGE
HAS BEEN SOLID ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
WEST...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
STILL GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT THAT FOLKS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF WETTING SHOWERS.

FRONT IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN CWA MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING IN THE EAST THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG.

HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WAS MORE
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
SEASONAL...SO TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK CLOSER TO WHERE WE
SHOULD BE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS 35 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER PATTERN ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING LATE EVENING AS OUR
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND
SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. FROM THERE...
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK THE LOW TAKES...WITH THE
NAM MODEL FARTHEST WEST OF OUR AREA AND WARMEST...WHILE THE ECMWF
TAKES THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
IS COLDEST/DEEPEST. THE GFS FORECAST MODEL SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO...AND SINCE THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET
A HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...HELD CLOSEST TO THE GFS
SOLUTION.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH BY
AROUND SUNSET FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3000 FEET. FROM THERE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOSE-DIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT... CAUSING RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO... SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER
LOW...WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
TAPER DOWN TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN...DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. AS SUCH...NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER OUR AREA AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO 12MB. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...
SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY
CHILLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO CARRY WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE
VISIBILITY AND WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KLYH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
18Z/2PM TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE REDEVELOPS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH.
WINDS LESS THAT 10KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CEILINGS WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS. TURNING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHERE CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR. WINDS DECREASING.
THURSDAY MORNING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE AREA
BRINGING IN CLOUDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ABOUT HOW FAST CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA IS THEN SLATED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A LONGER PERIOD OF
POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...-SHSN OR -SN
BLF/LWB AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS NEXT EVENT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF POOR MODEL
CONSISTENCY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE SYSTEM AND AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES WITH TIME.
OVERALL...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI-SUN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/NONE
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291402
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1002 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA
THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. A 50 TO 75 MILE
WIDE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ALONG THE LENGTH
OF THE FRONT. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AT 10AM WAS FROM JUST WEST
OF HOT SPRINGS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF WATAUGA COUNTY. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

THINK AMOUNTS FOR OUR CWA WILL BE RANGING FROM A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE WEST TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE EAST. AREAL COVERAGE
HAS BEEN SOLID ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
WEST...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
STILL GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT THAT FOLKS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF WETTING SHOWERS.

FRONT IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN CWA MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING IN THE EAST THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG.

HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WAS MORE
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
SEASONAL...SO TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK CLOSER TO WHERE WE
SHOULD BE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS 35 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER PATTERN ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING LATE EVENING AS OUR
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND
SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. FROM THERE...
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK THE LOW TAKES...WITH THE
NAM MODEL FARTHEST WEST OF OUR AREA AND WARMEST...WHILE THE ECMWF
TAKES THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
IS COLDEST/DEEPEST. THE GFS FORECAST MODEL SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO...AND SINCE THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET
A HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...HELD CLOSEST TO THE GFS
SOLUTION.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH BY
AROUND SUNSET FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3000 FEET. FROM THERE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOSE-DIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT... CAUSING RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO... SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER
LOW...WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
TAPER DOWN TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN...DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. AS SUCH...NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER OUR AREA AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO 12MB. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...
SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY
CHILLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO CARRY WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA ACTIVITY. MODELS IN GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN OBSERVED TIMING
AND MODEL TIMING...BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. AT ANY RATE...LOOK FOR
A PERIOD...ABOUT A 4-8 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME...WHERE -SHRA AND
LOWERING CIGS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SFC WINDS WILL BE PRETTY
LIGHT...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 3-7KTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 6 TO 10
KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
VCNTY OF THE RIDGE CRESTS AND JUST LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE VCNTY OF
KBCB AND KROA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS THEN SLATED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR
CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...POTENTIALLY EVEN -SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB
AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
NEXT EVENT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF MODEL FLIP-FLOPS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG AS CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO
THE SYSTEM AND ANY POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO EVOLVES
WITH TIME. OVERALL...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI-
SUN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291150
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA
THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 5AM THIS
FRONT WAS ALIGNED WITH THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE WEAKENED...THE FRONT LOSING FORWARD
MOMENTUM...WHICH SUGGESTS IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

A 50 TO 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A HALF
INCH WERE OBSERVED AS THE FRONT CROSSED KY/TN. THE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME...THUS THINK AMOUNTS FOR OUR CWA WILL BE
LESS ROBUST...WITH FORECAST AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE WEST TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE EAST. AREAL COVERAGE
HAS BEEN SOLID ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
WEST...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
STILL GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT THAT FOLKS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF WETTING SHOWERS.

FRONT IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN CWA MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING IN THE EAST THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH THE PIEDMONT SNEAKING BACK INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER...EARLY DAY RAINFALL.  THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
IS SEASONAL...SO TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK CLOSER TO WHERE WE
SHOULD BE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS 55 TO 65 AND LOWS 35 TO 45.

A MORE PRONOUNCED COOL DOWN WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER PATTERN ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING LATE EVENING AS OUR
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND
SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. FROM THERE...
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK THE LOW TAKES...WITH THE
NAM MODEL FARTHEST WEST OF OUR AREA AND WARMEST...WHILE THE ECMWF
TAKES THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
IS COLDEST/DEEPEST. THE GFS FORECAST MODEL SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO...AND SINCE THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET
A HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...HELD CLOSEST TO THE GFS
SOLUTION.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH BY
AROUND SUNSET FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3000 FEET. FROM THERE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOSEDIVE FRIDAY NIGHT...
CAUSING RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO...
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW...WHERE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAPER DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN...DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. AS SUCH...NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER OUR AREA AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO 12MB. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...
SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY
CHILLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO CARRY WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA ACTIVITY. MODELS IN GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN OBSERVED TIMING
AND MODEL TIMING...BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. AT ANY RATE...LOOK FOR
A PERIOD...ABOUT A 4-8 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME...WHERE -SHRA AND
LOWERING CIGS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SFC WINDS WILL BE PRETTY
LIGHT...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 3-7KTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 6 TO 10
KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
VCNTY OF THE RIDGE CRESTS AND JUST LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE VCNTY OF
KBCB AND KROA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS THEN SLATED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR
CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...POTENTIALLY EVEN -SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB
AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
NEXT EVENT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF MODEL FLIP-FLOPS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG AS CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO
THE SYSTEM AND ANY POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO EVOLVES
WITH TIME. OVERALL...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI-
SUN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL BE
FORCED TO PLACE THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE
TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290940
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
540 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA
THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 5AM THIS
FRONT WAS ALIGNED WITH THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE WEAKENED...THE FRONT LOSING FORWARD
MOMENTUM...WHICH SUGGESTS IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

A 50 TO 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A HALF
INCH WERE OBSERVED AS THE FRONT CROSSED KY/TN. THE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME...THUS THINK AMOUNTS FOR OUR CWA WILL BE
LESS ROBUST...WITH FORECAST AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE WEST TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE EAST. AREAL COVERAGE
HAS BEEN SOLID ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
WEST...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
STILL GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT THAT FOLKS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF WETTING SHOWERS.

FRONT IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN CWA MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING IN THE EAST THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH THE PIEDMONT SNEAKING BACK INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER...EARLY DAY RAINFALL.  THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
IS SEASONAL...SO TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK CLOSER TO WHERE WE
SHOULD BE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS 55 TO 65 AND LOWS 35 TO 45.

A MORE PRONOUNCED COOL DOWN WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER PATTERN ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING LATE EVENING AS OUR
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND
SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. FROM THERE...
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK THE LOW TAKES...WITH THE
NAM MODEL FARTHEST WEST OF OUR AREA AND WARMEST...WHILE THE ECMWF
TAKES THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
IS COLDEST/DEEPEST. THE GFS FORECAST MODEL SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO...AND SINCE THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET
A HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...HELD CLOSEST TO THE GFS
SOLUTION.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH BY
AROUND SUNSET FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3000 FEET. FROM THERE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOSEDIVE FRIDAY NIGHT...
CAUSING RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO...
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW...WHERE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAPER DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN...DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. AS SUCH...NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER OUR AREA AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO 12MB. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...
SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY
CHILLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO CARRY WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA ACTIVITY. MODELS IN GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN OBSERVED TIMING
AND MODEL TIMING...BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. AT ANY RATE...LOOK FOR
A PERIOD...ABOUT A 4-8 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME...WHERE -SHRA AND
LOWERING CIGS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SFC WINDS WILL BE PRETTY
LIGHT...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 3-7KTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 6 TO 10
KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
VCNTY OF THE RIDGE CRESTS AND JUST LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE VCNTY OF
KBCB AND KROA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS THEN SLATED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR
CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...POTENTIALLY EVEN -SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB
AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
NEXT EVENT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF MODEL FLIP-FLOPS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG AS CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO
THE SYSTEM AND ANY POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO EVOLVES
WITH TIME. OVERALL...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI-
SUN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL BE
FORCED TO PLACE THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE
TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290716
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
316 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF
SHOWERS PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE MADE SOME NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS OFFER A SOLUTION THAT STRUGGLES TO BRING
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. RATHER
THAN ALLOWING FOR SOME COVERAGE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY THE FORENOON WEDNESDAY...HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST NEAR THE CREST BY
900 AM WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WV LINE STARTING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING IN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS OF 645 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY EVENING UPDATE WILL REFLECT MAINLY A SMALL TWEAK IN THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LATEST PROJECTIONS
BASED UP TRENDS ON REGIONAL RADARS IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE TO BE
NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WEST VIRGINIA LINE AROUND 800 OR 900
PM. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTION BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NO OTHER MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR WEST FROM THE GREAT LAKE
REGION SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE RNK WRFARW...HRRR AND NAM...THEN TOWARDS
THE GFS WEDNESDAY. LEANED TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF PRE- AND POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION. EXPECT THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS LIKELY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS
BAND TRANSITIONS INTO A DOWNSLOPING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK
DOWN BELOW NORMAL BY 5F-10F. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION WITH THIS
TROUGH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 30S. SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOT IDEAL...FROST
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LATEST 12Z GFS IS STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN 850MB TEMPS WITH THE 12Z GFS RUNNING
MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW KEEPING THINGS MORE
ALIGNED WITH WPC AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPILL OVER TO THE REST OF THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WV
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW TAKES PLACE AND HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
REMAINS WILL DICTATE IF THERE ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL HOLD
IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND ADDING JUST A FEW DEGREES TO
THAT ON SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA ACTIVITY. MODELS IN GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN OBSERVED TIMING
AND MODEL TIMING...BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. AT ANY RATE...LOOK FOR
A PERIOD...ABOUT A 4-8 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME...WHERE -SHRA AND
LOWERING CIGS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SFC WINDS WILL BE PRETTY
LIGHT...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 3-7KTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 6 TO 10
KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
VCNTY OF THE RIDGE CRESTS AND JUST LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE VCNTY OF
KBCB AND KROA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS THEN SLATED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR
CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...POTENTIALLY EVEN -SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB
AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
NEXT EVENT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF MODEL FLIP-FLOPS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG AS CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO
THE SYSTEM AND ANY POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO EVOLVES
WITH TIME. OVERALL...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI-
SUN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL BE
FORCED TO PLACE THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE
TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290140
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF
SHOWERS PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE MADE SOME NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS OFFER A SOLUTION THAT STRUGGLES TO BRING
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. RATHER
THAN ALLOWING FOR SOME COVERAGE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY THE FORENOON WEDNESDAY...HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST NEAR THE CREST BY
900 AM WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WV LINE STARTING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING IN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS OF 645 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY EVENING UPDATE WILL REFLECT MAINLY A SMALL TWEAK IN THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LATEST PROJECTIONS
BASED UP TRENDS ON REGIONAL RADARS IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE TO BE
NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WEST VIRGINIA LINE AROUND 800 OR 900
PM. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTION BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NO OTHER MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR WEST FROM THE GREAT LAKE
REGION SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE RNK WRFARW...HRRR AND NAM...THEN TOWARDS
THE GFS WEDNESDAY. LEANED TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF PRE- AND POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION. EXPECT THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS LIKELY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS
BAND TRANSITIONS INTO A DOWNSLOPING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK
DOWN BELOW NORMAL BY 5F-10F. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION WITH THIS
TROUGH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 30S. SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOT IDEAL...FROST
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LATEST 12Z GFS IS STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN 850MB TEMPS WITH THE 12Z GFS RUNNING
MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW KEEPING THINGS MORE
ALIGNED WITH WPC AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPILL OVER TO THE REST OF THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WV
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW TAKES PLACE AND HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
REMAINS WILL DICTATE IF THERE ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL HOLD
IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND ADDING JUST A FEW DEGREES TO
THAT ON SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE INITIAL FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA ACTIVITY. MODELS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS
THAT MUCH OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND THROUGH
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME -SHRA APPEAR ALMOST CERTAIN IN THE
08Z TIME FRAME EXTREME WEST TO NEARLY 20Z TIME FRAME EXTREME EAST.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN OBSERVED TIMING AND MODEL
TIMING...WITH THE MODELS APPEARING TO BE A FEW HOURS TOO SLOW
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AT ANY RATE...CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PCPN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT ANY POINT AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIG/VSBY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE -SHRA.
MORE THAN LIKELY...PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE
SIMPLY SPRINKLES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN WV...THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE THE USUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO
WED. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK SOME LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AS THIS IS NOT THE MOST IDEAL UPSLOPE
SITUATION OR EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE AS NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY ON
THE HEELS OF THIS ONE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD BECOME
VFR FAIRLY QUICKLY BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS SW 5-7KTS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING WNW BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 8-15KTS WITH GUSTS 18-25KTS DEPENDING
ON LOCATION. ROA/BCB/BLF WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERALL.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS THEN SLATED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR
CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...POTENTIALLY EVEN -SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB
AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
NEXT EVENT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF MODEL FLIP-FLOPS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG AS CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO
THE SYSTEM AND ANY POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO EVOLVES
WITH TIME. OVERALL...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI-
SUN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KFCX WSR-88D RADAR HAS BEEN PUT IN STANDBY DUE TO EXTREME SHELTER
TEMPERATURES AND BAD AC UNITS. RADAR OPERATION WILL BE
INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290140
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF
SHOWERS PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE MADE SOME NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS OFFER A SOLUTION THAT STRUGGLES TO BRING
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. RATHER
THAN ALLOWING FOR SOME COVERAGE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY THE FORENOON WEDNESDAY...HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST NEAR THE CREST BY
900 AM WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WV LINE STARTING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING IN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS OF 645 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY EVENING UPDATE WILL REFLECT MAINLY A SMALL TWEAK IN THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LATEST PROJECTIONS
BASED UP TRENDS ON REGIONAL RADARS IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE TO BE
NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WEST VIRGINIA LINE AROUND 800 OR 900
PM. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTION BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NO OTHER MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR WEST FROM THE GREAT LAKE
REGION SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE RNK WRFARW...HRRR AND NAM...THEN TOWARDS
THE GFS WEDNESDAY. LEANED TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF PRE- AND POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION. EXPECT THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS LIKELY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS
BAND TRANSITIONS INTO A DOWNSLOPING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK
DOWN BELOW NORMAL BY 5F-10F. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION WITH THIS
TROUGH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 30S. SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOT IDEAL...FROST
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LATEST 12Z GFS IS STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN 850MB TEMPS WITH THE 12Z GFS RUNNING
MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW KEEPING THINGS MORE
ALIGNED WITH WPC AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPILL OVER TO THE REST OF THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WV
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW TAKES PLACE AND HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
REMAINS WILL DICTATE IF THERE ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL HOLD
IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND ADDING JUST A FEW DEGREES TO
THAT ON SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE INITIAL FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA ACTIVITY. MODELS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS
THAT MUCH OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND THROUGH
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME -SHRA APPEAR ALMOST CERTAIN IN THE
08Z TIME FRAME EXTREME WEST TO NEARLY 20Z TIME FRAME EXTREME EAST.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN OBSERVED TIMING AND MODEL
TIMING...WITH THE MODELS APPEARING TO BE A FEW HOURS TOO SLOW
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AT ANY RATE...CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PCPN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT ANY POINT AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIG/VSBY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE -SHRA.
MORE THAN LIKELY...PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE
SIMPLY SPRINKLES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN WV...THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE THE USUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO
WED. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK SOME LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AS THIS IS NOT THE MOST IDEAL UPSLOPE
SITUATION OR EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE AS NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY ON
THE HEELS OF THIS ONE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD BECOME
VFR FAIRLY QUICKLY BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS SW 5-7KTS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING WNW BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 8-15KTS WITH GUSTS 18-25KTS DEPENDING
ON LOCATION. ROA/BCB/BLF WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERALL.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS THEN SLATED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR
CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...POTENTIALLY EVEN -SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB
AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
NEXT EVENT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF MODEL FLIP-FLOPS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG AS CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO
THE SYSTEM AND ANY POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO EVOLVES
WITH TIME. OVERALL...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI-
SUN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KFCX WSR-88D RADAR HAS BEEN PUT IN STANDBY DUE TO EXTREME SHELTER
TEMPERATURES AND BAD AC UNITS. RADAR OPERATION WILL BE
INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 282355
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF
SHOWERS PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY EVENING UPDATE WILL REFLECT MAINLY A SMALL TWEAK IN THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LATEST PROJECTIONS
BASED UP TRENDS ON REGIONAL RADARS IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE TO BE
NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WEST VIRGINIA LINE AROUND 800 OR 900
PM. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTION BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NO OTHER MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR WEST FROM THE GREAT LAKE
REGION SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE RNK WRFARW...HRRR AND NAM...THEN TOWARDS
THE GFS WEDNESDAY. LEANED TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF PRE- AND POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION. EXPECT THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS LIKELY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS
BAND TRANSITIONS INTO A DOWNSLOPING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK
DOWN BELOW NORMAL BY 5F-10F. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION WITH THIS
TROUGH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 30S. SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOT IDEAL...FROST
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LATEST 12Z GFS IS STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN 850MB TEMPS WITH THE 12Z GFS RUNNING
MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW KEEPING THINGS MORE
ALIGNED WITH WPC AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPILL OVER TO THE REST OF THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WV
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW TAKES PLACE AND HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
REMAINS WILL DICTATE IF THERE ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL HOLD
IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND ADDING JUST A FEW DEGREES TO
THAT ON SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE INITIAL FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA ACTIVITY. MODELS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS
THAT MUCH OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND THROUGH
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME -SHRA APPEAR ALMOST CERTAIN IN THE
08Z TIME FRAME EXTREME WEST TO NEARLY 20Z TIME FRAME EXTREME EAST.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN OBSERVED TIMING AND MODEL
TIMING...WITH THE MODELS APPEARING TO BE A FEW HOURS TOO SLOW
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AT ANY RATE...CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PCPN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT ANY POINT AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIG/VSBY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE -SHRA.
MORE THAN LIKELY...PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE
SIMPLY SPRINKLES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN WV...THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE THE USUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO
WED. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK SOME LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AS THIS IS NOT THE MOST IDEAL UPSLOPE
SITUATION OR EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE AS NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY ON
THE HEELS OF THIS ONE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD BECOME
VFR FAIRLY QUICKLY BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS SW 5-7KTS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING WNW BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 8-15KTS WITH GUSTS 18-25KTS DEPENDING
ON LOCATION. ROA/BCB/BLF WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERALL.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS THEN SLATED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR
CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...POTENTIALLY EVEN -SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB
AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
NEXT EVENT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF MODEL FLIP-FLOPS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG AS CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO
THE SYSTEM AND ANY POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO EVOLVES
WITH TIME. OVERALL...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI-
SUN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KFCX WSR-88D RADAR HAS BEEN PUT IN STANDBY DUE TO EXTREME SHELTER
TEMPERATURES AND BAD AC UNITS. RADAR OPERATION WILL BE
INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 282251
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
651 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF
SHOWERS PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY EVENING UPDATE WILL REFLECT MAINLY A SMALL TWEAK IN THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LATEST PROJECTIONS
BASED UP TRENDS ON REGIONAL RADARS IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE TO BE
NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WEST VIRGINIA LINE AROUND 800 OR 900
PM. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTION BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NO OTHER MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR WEST FROM THE GREAT LAKE
REGION SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE RNK WRFARW...HRRR AND NAM...THEN TOWARDS
THE GFS WEDNESDAY. LEANED TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF PRE- AND POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION. EXPECT THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS LIKELY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS
BAND TRANSITIONS INTO A DOWNSLOPING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK
DOWN BELOW NORMAL BY 5F-10F. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION WITH THIS
TROUGH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 30S. SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOT IDEAL...FROST
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LATEST 12Z GFS IS STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN 850MB TEMPS WITH THE 12Z GFS RUNNING
MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW KEEPING THINGS MORE
ALIGNED WITH WPC AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPILL OVER TO THE REST OF THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WV
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW TAKES PLACE AND HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
REMAINS WILL DICTATE IF THERE ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL HOLD
IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND ADDING JUST A FEW DEGREES TO
THAT ON SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCNL SFC GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THICKENING
AND LOWERING TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT UNTIL
THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE A 4-8 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY END 1 OR 2 HOURS AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS/VSBYS TRENDING UPWARD AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
ANY SORT OF RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ONLY AT BLF AND LWB FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY SURFACE
FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS TO THE
WEST VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KFCX WSR-88D RADAR HAS BEEN PUT IN STANDBY DUE TO EXTREME SHELTER
TEMPERATURES AND BAD AC UNITS. RADAR OPERATION WILL BE
INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/PM
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281902
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
302 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF
SHOWERS PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR WEST FROM THE GREAT LAKE
REGION SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE RNK WRFARW...HRRR AND NAM...THEN TOWARDS
THE GFS WEDNESDAY. LEANED TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF PRE- AND POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION. EXPECT THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS LIKELY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS
BAND TRANSITIONS INTO A DOWNSLOPING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK
DOWN BELOW NORMAL BY 5F-10F. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION WITH THIS
TROUGH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 30S. SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOT IDEAL...FROST
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LATEST 12Z GFS IS STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN 850MB TEMPS WITH THE 12Z GFS RUNNING
MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW KEEPING THINGS MORE
ALIGNED WITH WPC AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPILL OVER TO THE REST OF THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WV
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW TAKES PLACE AND HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
REMAINS WILL DICTATE IF THERE ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL HOLD
IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND ADDING JUST A FEW DEGREES TO
THAT ON SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCNL SFC GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THICKENING
AND LOWERING TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT UNTIL
THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE A 4-8 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY END 1 OR 2 HOURS AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS/VSBYS TRENDING UPWARD AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
ANY SORT OF RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ONLY AT BLF AND LWB FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY SURFACE
FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS TO THE
WEST VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281747
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGHOUT
THE REGION TODAY...RETURNING TO NORMAL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES WILL LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.


AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS. REGIONAL
WSR-88D IMAGES SHOWED NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BALMY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORDS. HRRR...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW KEPT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. ENJOY THE GREAT OCTOBER WEATHER !

AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICAGO IL TO DALLAS TX. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY...MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BALMY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S/80S AND
DEWPOINTS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S. ASIDE FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUD...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.  ENJOY IT WHILE IT
LASTS BECAUSE THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST OF THE WARM AIR FOR
OCTOBER...TEMPERATURES TRENDING COLDER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS AFD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS THAT MAY BE TESTED OR BROKEN TODAY.

SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...NO THREAT OF PRECIP
ANYWHERE WITHIN OUR CWA UNTIL ITS ARRIVAL. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE FRONT. ONSET
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA...SPREADING EAST
TO NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
PRE- AND POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN NATURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS BAND
TRANSITIONS INTO A DOWNSLOPING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AND ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND FRONT SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO THE 50S ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TRENDING UP INTO THE LOWER OR MID 70S EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE LATER ARRIVAL OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS...WANING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...AND ANY APPRECIABLE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND LOW THREAT FOR EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...UPSLOPING CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP A BIT SUCH THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID
40S PIEDMONT.

REST OF SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS POST
FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO AND OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
MAINLY 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 60S PIEDMONT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 40 PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH
BUT THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN US
AND WILL BE PULLING DOWN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON. -6C
TO -8C 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE WV AND
SW VA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AND QUICK HITTING SO
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 30S
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
MAY RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCNL
SFC GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THICKENING
AND LOWERING TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT UNTIL
THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE A 4-8 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY END 1 OR 2 HOURS AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS/VSBYS TRENDING UPWARD AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
ANY SORT OF RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ONLY AT BLF AND LWB FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY SURFACE
FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS TO
THE WEST VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY PER INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WARM AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...HUMIDITY MINIMUMS TESTING 30 PERCENT.

AFTER TODAY...WETTING SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EAST THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH /0.10/ TO
A QUARTER /0.25/ OF AN INCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/28...

ROANOKE.....86 (1919)
LYNCHBURG...88 (1919)
DANVILLE....85 (1984)
BLUEFIELD...77 (1984)
LEWISBURG...76 (1984)
BLACKSBURG..80 (1984)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON.

HINTON WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PROBLEM
IN THE TRANSMISSION LINE BETWEEN OUR FACILITY AND THE RADIO
TRANSMITTER. TELCO HAS BEEN NOTIFIED TO FIX THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM
CLIMATE...JH
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281401
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1001 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGHOUT
THE REGION TODAY...RETURNING TO NORMAL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS. REGIONAL
WSR-88D IMAGES SHOWED NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BALMY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORDS. HRRR...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW KEPT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. ENJOY THE GREAT OCTOBER WEATHER !

AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICAGO IL TO DALLAS TX. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY...MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BALMY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S/80S AND
DEWPOINTS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S. ASIDE FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUD...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.  ENJOY IT WHILE IT
LASTS BECAUSE THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST OF THE WARM AIR FOR
OCTOBER...TEMPERATURES TRENDING COLDER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS AFD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS THAT MAY BE TESTED OR BROKEN TODAY.

SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...NO THREAT OF PRECIP
ANYWHERE WITHIN OUR CWA UNTIL ITS ARRIVAL. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE FRONT. ONSET
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA...SPREADING EAST
TO NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
PRE- AND POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN NATURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS BAND
TRANSITIONS INTO A DOWNSLOPING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AND ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND FRONT SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO THE 50S ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TRENDING UP INTO THE LOWER OR MID 70S EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE LATER ARRIVAL OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS...WANING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...AND ANY APPRECIABLE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND LOW THREAT FOR EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...UPSLOPING CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP A BIT SUCH THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID
40S PIEDMONT.

REST OF SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS POST
FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO AND OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
MAINLY 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 60S PIEDMONT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 40 PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH
BUT THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN US
AND WILL BE PULLING DOWN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON. -6C
TO -8C 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE WV AND
SW VA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AND QUICK HITTING SO
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 30S
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 958 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MORNING FOG AT LWB HAS DISSIPATED WITH MIXING. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT TODAY. WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE AROUND 20 KTS THIS MORNING...AND ARE PROGGED
TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS LATER TODAY...WITH OCNL SFC GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY...THICKENING
AND LOWERING TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT UNTIL
THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A 4-8
HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ATTM IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD END 1 OR 2 HOURS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS/VSBYS TRENDING UPWARD
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
ANY SORT OF RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ONLY AT BLF AND LWB FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY SURFACE
FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS TO
THE WEST VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY PER INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WARM AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...HUMIDITY MINIMUMS TESTING 30 PERCENT.

AFTER TODAY...WETTING SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EAST THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH /0.10/ TO
A QUARTER /0.25/ OF AN INCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/28...

ROANOKE.....86 (1919)
LYNCHBURG...88 (1919)
DANVILLE....85 (1984)
BLUEFIELD...77 (1984)
LEWISBURG...76 (1984)
BLACKSBURG..80 (1984)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...

RADAR HAS BEEN PLACED INTO STANBY UNTIL EL TECHS CAN ASSESS A
PROBLEM THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE AIR CONDITIONER THAT KEEPS THE
SYSTEM COOL. THE TEMPERATURE IN THE BUILDING ROSE TO AROUND 50 DEG
C LATE LAST NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM HAD TO BE PLACED INTO STANDBY TO
AVOID POTENTIAL FAILURE AND DAMAGE TO THE EQUIPMENT.

HINTON WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PROBLEM
IN THE TRANSMISSION LINE BETWEEN OUR FACILITY AND THE RADIO
TRANSMITTER. TELCO HAS BEEN NOTIFIED TO FIX THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM
CLIMATE...JH
EQUIPMENT...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281144
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGHOUT
THE REGION TODAY...RETURNING TO NORMAL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICAGO IL TO DALLAS TX. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY...MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BALMY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S/80S AND
DEWPOINTS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S. ASIDE FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUD...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.  ENJOY IT WHILE IT
LASTS BECAUSE THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST OF THE WARM AIR FOR
OCTOBER...TEMPERATURES TRENDING COLDER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS AFD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS THAT MAY BE TESTED OR BROKEN TODAY.

SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...NO THREAT OF PRECIP
ANYWHERE WITHIN OUR CWA UNTIL ITS ARRIVAL. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE FRONT. ONSET
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA...SPREADING EAST
TO NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
PRE- AND POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN NATURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS BAND
TRANSITIONS INTO A DOWNSLOPING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AND ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND FRONT SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO THE 50S ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TRENDING UP INTO THE LOWER OR MID 70S EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE LATER ARRIVAL OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS...WANING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...AND ANY APPRECIABLE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND LOW THREAT FOR EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...UPSLOPING CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP A BIT SUCH THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID
40S PIEDMONT.

REST OF SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS POST
FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO AND OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
MAINLY 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 60S PIEDMONT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 40 PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH
BUT THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN US
AND WILL BE PULLING DOWN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON. -6C
TO -8C 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE WV AND
SW VA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AND QUICK HITTING SO
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 30S
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE AROUND 20 KTS THIS MORNING...AND ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS LATER TODAY...WITH OCNL SFC GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY...THICKENING
AND LOWERING TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT UNTIL
THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A 4-8
HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ATTM IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD END 1 OR 2 HOURS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS/VSBYS TRENDING UPWARD
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
ANY SORT OF RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ONLY AT BLF AND LWB FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY SURFACE
FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS TO
THE WEST VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY PER INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WARM AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...HUMIDITY MINIMUMS TESTING 30 PERCENT.

AFTER TODAY...WETTING SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EAST THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH /0.10/ TO
A QUARTER /0.25/ OF AN INCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/28...

ROANOKE.....86 (1919)
LYNCHBURG...88 (1919)
DANVILLE....85 (1984)
BLUEFIELD...77 (1984)
LEWISBURG...76 (1984)
BLACKSBURG..80 (1984)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...

RADAR HAS BEEN PLACED INTO STANBY UNTIL EL TECHS CAN ASSESS A
PROBLEM THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE AIR CONDITIONER THAT KEEPS THE
SYSTEM COOL. THE TEMPERATURE IN THE BUILDING ROSE TO AROUND 50 DEG
C LATE LAST NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM HAD TO BE PLACED INTO STANDBY TO
AVOID POTENTIAL FAILURE AND DAMAGE TO THE EQUIPMENT.

HINTON WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PROBLEM
IN THE TRANSMISSION LINE BETWEEN OUR FACILITY AND THE RADIO
TRANSMITTER. TELCO HAS BEEN NOTIFIED TO FIX THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM
CLIMATE...JH
EQUIPMENT...PM





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