Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KRNK 241801
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
201 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our stretch of cool weather will be coming to an end as high pressure
builds over the southeast United States and ushers much warmer air into
the region. Temperatures will be well above normal for most of the week
with highs by Thursday ranging from the upper 80s across the piedmont
to the lower and middle 80s west of the Blue Ridge. However along with
the warm temperatures will come increasing humidity and the chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1155 AM EDT Tuesday...

Morning RNK sounding still pretty cool aloft. This will allow for
at least scattered clouds this afternoon per steep low/mid level
lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate modest cu depth with
cloud bases around 4kft and max cloud depth to about 10kft. This
may generate a few sprinkles, but overall trend is for warming to
take place aloft, 700 mb temperatures increasing from m1 deg C to
+2 deg C by the end of the day. This should cap cloud depth and
prevent deep convection. The Meso models and HRRR generate some
isolated showers, but POPs AOB 10%.

The upper low which has been with us for several days will still
have enough influence over our weather today to keep a just a
slight chance of showers across the region...especially far north
and east...thanks to the combination of diurnal instability and
steep lapse rates in the cold pool of air aloft. The prospects for
thunder look to be very limited indeed so will not include in the
grids. As the day wears on and the low continues pulling off to
the northeast much warmer air will begin to surge in from the
southwest. This will give our temperatures a much needed boost to
slightly above normal...which should feel like a tropical heat
wave after our recent stretch of cool weather. Expect highs today
to reach the lower 80s east of the Blue Ridge with generally
middle and upper 70s to the west. Tonight looks to be quiet with
mostly clear skies and lows ranging from the middle and upper 50s
east to upper 40s and lower 50s west. There may also be valley fog
forming once again late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 am EDT Tuesday...

Upper heights and 850mb temps continue to rise through the period
as the northeast U.S. upper low continues to lift northeast into
the north Atlantic and troughing deepens and shifts inland across
the southwest U.S. Upper heights across our region will be
nearing 588dm with 850mb temps averaging near +16C through the
period. This will result in much warmer temps than we have seen
over the past 14 days...with temps actually above normal through
the entire period...generally lows in the 50s to lower 60s and
highs in the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere...nearing 90 across
the Piedmont.

Little if any synoptic-scale forcing is evident on Wednesday with
weak upper ridging in place...but all models depict an area of
moisture pooling across the Appalachians..typical of differential
heating across the mountains...which could yield isolated to
widely scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Instability is
minimal at this point...so with no dynamics...activity would be
diurnally driven and non-severe.

On Thursday...the pattern becomes slightly more interesting and
more active convectively speaking. While the region is still under
broad upper ridging...the southwest U.S. tough continues to shift
inland...but more importantly a notable short wave is ejected to
the northeast of the parent upper low into the TN/OH valley by
afternoon. The NAM hits the feature the hardest...but it is
evident via all of the longer range models. This increase in
forcing along with increased thermodynamics...should yield
scattered showers and thunderstorms...again largely diurnally
driven.

By Friday...the aforementioned disturbance has moved to our
northwest...but again a notable area of moisture pooling is
evident across the mountains...but the best area of such has
shifted slightly northwest from Thursday`s location. Of more
importance at this point is a potential tropical system apparent in
most models developing off the southeast U.S. coast. While all
models indicate this system in varying degrees...there are vast
differences in the track of such system...with the GFS most
aggressive in taking in inland into SC/NC...where it circulates
about into the weekend and early next week. This feature may serve
initially to induce increased subsidence across the south and east
portion of our CWA Friday...but beyond that...cannot hinge on any
one solution at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 am EDT Tuesday...

As noted in the section above...weather conditions across the
region through the weekend and into early next week will depend
largely on the track...intensity...and evolution of a potential
tropical system moving from the Bahamas northwest into the
southeast states per GFS...or hugging the SC/NC coast line per
most other models. Clearly...the GFS solution would have a
significant impact on our region in terms of cloud cover and
precipitation...while other model solutions keeping the low track
closer to the coast...would result in more subsidence across our
region and minimal impacts. For sure temperatures will remain on
the warm side with no significant change in air mass underneath a
continuing large-scale ridge...with humidity levels high through
the period. Meanwhile...the western system remains mostly intact
across the western states while overall weakening and lifting more
north than east. Thus...outside a potential tropical system...the
pattern is becoming more-and-more summerlike than we have seen so
far this year. Look for a continuation of highs in the 70s
mountains and 80s elsewhere...with lows mostly in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Closed upper low continuing to spin off the New England coast,
this feature gradually moving northeast and away from the
forecast area. Influence less than in previous days, but still
close enough to generate high based cu/sc and some mid
clouds, mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Cannot completely rule out
an afternoon shower east of the Blue Ridge, coverage certainly
not enough to include in the tafs. if there is a risk it would be
northeast of KLYH through sunset. after sunset...expecting clear
skies all terminals.

Wet antecedent conditions from rainfall previous days in
combination with light winds and clear skies will promote valley
fog formation in the mountain valleys tonight. Main impact will be
KLWB/KBCB and vicinity. Expect fog to lift fairly quickly after 9
AM Wednesday with return of widespread VFR.

Winds generally light WNW-WSW through the period...speeds 10 mph
or less...near calm after 00Z/8PM...increasing again after 13Z/9AM
Wednesday but generally less than 10 mph.

Extended discussion...

Wind flow through Friday will be out of the southwest with the
weather pattern more reflective of summer conditions, primarily
VFR except for widely scattered afternoon and evening showers
during the peak heating part of the day. Nightime fog also
possible in the mountain valleys, but mainly after midnight up
until an hour or two after daybreak.

Potential wind flow change is advertised by the models this
weekend per development of a storm system off the southeast
Atlantic Coast. Models differ quite a bit on timing and movement
of this feature so low confidence forecast beyond Saturday attm.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241556
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1156 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our stretch of cool weather will be coming to an end as high pressure
builds over the southeast United States and ushers much warmer air into
the region. Temperatures will be well above normal for most of the week
with highs by Thursday ranging from the upper 80s across the piedmont
to the lower and middle 80s west of the Blue Ridge. However along with
the warm temperatures will come increasing humidity and the chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1155 AM EDT Tuesday...

Morning RNK sounding still pretty cool aloft. This will allow for
at least scattered clouds this afternoon per steep low/mid level
lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate modest cu depth with
cloud bases around 4kft and max cloud depth to about 10kft. This
may generate a few sprinkles, but overall trend is for warming to
take place aloft, 700 mb temperatures increasing from m1 deg C to
+2 deg C by the end of the day. This should cap cloud depth and
prevent deep convection. The Meso models and HRRR generate some
isolated showers, but POPs AOB 10%.

The upper low which has been with us for several days will still
have enough influence over our weather today to keep a just a
slight chance of showers across the region...especially far north
and east...thanks to the combination of diurnal instability and
steep lapse rates in the cold pool of air aloft. The prospects for
thunder look to be very limited indeed so will not include in the
grids. As the day wears on and the low continues pulling off to
the northeast much warmer air will begin to surge in from the
southwest. This will give our temperatures a much needed boost to
slightly above normal...which should feel like a tropical heat
wave after our recent stretch of cool weather. Expect highs today
to reach the lower 80s east of the Blue Ridge with generally
middle and upper 70s to the west. Tonight looks to be quiet with
mostly clear skies and lows ranging from the middle and upper 50s
east to upper 40s and lower 50s west. There may also be valley fog
forming once again late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 am EDT Tuesday...

Upper heights and 850mb temps continue to rise through the period
as the northeast U.S. upper low continues to lift northeast into
the north Atlantic and troughing deepens and shifts inland across
the southwest U.S. Upper heights across our region will be
nearing 588dm with 850mb temps averaging near +16C through the
period. This will result in much warmer temps than we have seen
over the past 14 days...with temps actually above normal through
the entire period...generally lows in the 50s to lower 60s and
highs in the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere...nearing 90 across
the Piedmont.

Little if any synoptic-scale forcing is evident on Wednesday with
weak upper ridging in place...but all models depict an area of
moisture pooling across the Appalachians..typical of differential
heating across the mountains...which could yield isolated to
widely scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Instability is
minimal at this point...so with no dynamics...activity would be
diurnally driven and non-severe.

On Thursday...the pattern becomes slightly more interesting and
more active convectively speaking. While the region is still under
broad upper ridging...the southwest U.S. tough continues to shift
inland...but more importantly a notable short wave is ejected to
the northeast of the parent upper low into the TN/OH valley by
afternoon. The NAM hits the feature the hardest...but it is
evident via all of the longer range models. This increase in
forcing along with increased thermodynamics...should yield
scattered showers and thunderstorms...again largely diurnally
driven.

By Friday...the aforementioned disturbance has moved to our
northwest...but again a notable area of moisture pooling is
evident across the mountains...but the best area of such has
shifted slightly northwest from Thursday`s location. Of more
importance at this point is a potential tropical system apparent in
most models developing off the southeast U.S. coast. While all
models indicate this system in varying degrees...there are vast
differences in the track of such system...with the GFS most
aggressive in taking in inland into SC/NC...where it circulates
about into the weekend and early next week. This feature may serve
initially to induce increased subsidence across the south and east
portion of our CWA Friday...but beyond that...cannot hinge on any
one solution at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 am EDT Tuesday...

As noted in the section above...weather conditions across the
region through the weekend and into early next week will depend
largely on the track...intensity...and evolution of a potential
tropical system moving from the Bahamas northwest into the
southeast states per GFS...or hugging the SC/NC coast line per
most other models. Clearly...the GFS solution would have a
significant impact on our region in terms of cloud cover and
precipitation...while other model solutions keeping the low track
closer to the coast...would result in more subsidence across our
region and minimal impacts. For sure temperatures will remain on
the warm side with no significant change in air mass underneath a
continuing large-scale ridge...with humidity levels high through
the period. Meanwhile...the western system remains mostly intact
across the western states while overall weakening and lifting more
north than east. Thus...outside a potential tropical system...the
pattern is becoming more-and-more summerlike than we have seen so
far this year. Look for a continuation of highs in the 70s
mountains and 80s elsewhere...with lows mostly in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 am EDT Tuesday...

Closed upper low continuing to spin off the mid Atlantic coast
will begin to move northeast away from the forecast area today.
Influence less than in previous days...but still close enough to
generate high based cu/sc and some mid clouds...mainly east of the
Blue Ridge. Cannot completely rule out an afternoon shower east of
the Blue Ridge...but at this point can really only support this
for KLYH. Wet antecedent conditions in the cool airmass and
decent radiational cooling has allowed for some fog...mainly KLWB
and KBCB. Expect fog to lift fairly quickly after 9 am and
through the remainder of the day and until 08z/09z Wed...expect
VFR conditions with any cigs aoa 050. Not as confident about
development of low clouds/fog Wed morning with less favorable
antecedent conditions...but enough confidence to advertise at KLWB
and KBCB.

Winds generally light WNW-WSW through the period...speeds mostly
8kts or less...near calm after 00z.

High confidence in cigs through the TAF valid period.
Medium confidence in vsbys til 14Z and aft 08Z...otherwise high
confidence in vfr vsbys.
Medium to high confidence in wind dir/spd through the TAF valid
period.

Extended discussion...

We will be going to a more summer like pattern mid to late week
with high pressure offshore providing south to southwest flow.
Thus, mainly VFR weather expected.

However, the potential exists for late night/early morning fog at
times around KLWB/KBCB and in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
Also some convection could pop up each afternoon in the mountains
Thursday into Saturday, making for localized afternoon/evening
MVFR restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 241139
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our stretch of cool weather will be coming to an end as high pressure
builds over the southeast United States and ushers much warmer air into
the region. Temperatures will be well above normal for most of the week
with highs by Thursday ranging from the upper 80s across the piedmont
to the lower and middle 80s west of the Blue Ridge. However along with
the warm temperatures will come increasing humidity and the chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...

After some dense valley fog burns off early this morning...the upper
low which has been with us for several days will still have enough
influence over our weather today to keep a just a slight chance of
showers across the region...especially far north and east...thanks to
the combination of diurnal instability and steep lapse rates in the
cold pool of air aloft. The prospects for thunder look to be very
limited indeed so will not include in the grids. As the day wears on
and the low continues pulling off to the northeast much warmer air will
begin to surge in from the southwest. This will give our temperatures a
much needed boost to slightly above normal...which should feel like a
tropical heat wave after our recent stretch of cool weather. Expect
highs today to reach the lower 80s east of the Blue Ridge with
generally middle and upper 70s to the west. Tonight looks to be quiet
with mostly clear skies and lows ranging from the middle and upper 50s
east to upper 40s and lower 50s west. There may also be valley fog
forming once again late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 am EDT Tuesday...

Upper heights and 850mb temps continue to rise through the period
as the northeast U.S. upper low continues to lift northeast into
the north Atlantic and troughing deepens and shifts inland across
the southwest U.S. Upper heights across our region will be
nearing 588dm with 850mb temps averaging near +16C through the
period. This will result in much warmer temps than we have seen
over the past 14 days...with temps actually above normal through
the entire period...generally lows in the 50s to lower 60s and
highs in the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere...nearing 90 across
the Piedmont.

Little if any synoptic-scale forcing is evident on Wednesday with
weak upper ridging in place...but all models depict an area of
moisture pooling across the Appalachians..typical of differential
heating across the mountains...which could yield isolated to
widely scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Instability is
minimal at this point...so with no dynamics...activity would be
diurnally driven and non-severe.

On Thursday...the pattern becomes slightly more interesting and
more active convectively speaking. While the region is still under
broad upper ridging...the southwest U.S. tough continues to shift
inland...but more importantly a notable short wave is ejected to
the northeast of the parent upper low into the TN/OH valley by
afternoon. The NAM hits the feature the hardest...but it is
evident via all of the longer range models. This increase in
forcing along with increased thermodynamics...should yield
scattered showers and thunderstorms...again largely diurnally
driven.

By Friday...the aforementioned disturbance has moved to our
northwest...but again a notable area of moisture pooling is
evident across the mountains...but the best area of such has
shifted slightly northwest from Thursday`s location. Of more
importance at this point is a potential tropical system apparent in
most models developing off the southeast U.S. coast. While all
models indicate this system in varying degrees...there are vast
differences in the track of such system...with the GFS most
aggressive in taking in inland into SC/NC...where it circulates
about into the weekend and early next week. This feature may serve
initially to induce increased subsidence across the south and east
portion of our CWA Friday...but beyond that...cannot hinge on any
one solution at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 am EDT Tuesday...

As noted in the section above...weather conditions across the
region through the weekend and into early next week will depend
largely on the track...intensity...and evolution of a potential
tropical system moving from the Bahamas northwest into the
southeast states per GFS...or hugging the SC/NC coast line per
most other models. Clearly...the GFS solution would have a
significant impact on our region in terms of cloud cover and
precipitation...while other model solutions keeping the low track
closer to the coast...would result in more subsidence across our
region and minimal impacts. For sure temperatures will remain on
the warm side with no significant change in air mass underneath a
continuing large-scale ridge...with humidity levels high through
the period. Meanwhile...the western system remains mostly intact
across the western states while overall weakening and lifting more
north than east. Thus...outside a potential tropical system...the
pattern is becoming more-and-more summerlike than we have seen so
far this year. Look for a continuation of highs in the 70s
mountains and 80s elsewhere...with lows mostly in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 am EDT Tuesday...

Closed upper low continuing to spin off the mid Atlantic coast
will begin to move northeast away from the forecast area today.
Influence less than in previous days...but still close enough to
generate high based cu/sc and some mid clouds...mainly east of the
Blue Ridge. Cannot completely rule out an afternoon shower east of
the Blue Ridge...but at this point can really only support this
for KLYH. Wet antecedent conditions in the cool airmass and
decent radiational cooling has allowed for some fog...mainly KLWB
and KBCB. Expect fog to lift fairly quickly after 9 am and
through the remainder of the day and until 08z/09z Wed...expect
VFR conditions with any cigs aoa 050. Not as confident about
development of low clouds/fog Wed morning with less favorable
antecedent conditions...but enough confidence to advertise at KLWB
and KBCB.

Winds generally light WNW-WSW through the period...speeds mostly
8kts or less...near calm after 00z.

High confidence in cigs through the TAF valid period.
Medium confidence in vsbys til 14Z and aft 08Z...otherwise high
confidence in vfr vsbys.
Medium to high confidence in wind dir/spd through the TAF valid
period.

Extended discussion...

We will be going to a more summer like pattern mid to late week
with high pressure offshore providing south to southwest flow.
Thus, mainly VFR weather expected.

However, the potential exists for late night/early morning fog at
times around KLWB/KBCB and in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
Also some convection could pop up each afternoon in the mountains
Thursday into Saturday, making for localized afternoon/evening
MVFR restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 240828
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
428 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our stretch of cool weather will be coming to an end as high pressure
builds over the southeast United States and ushers much warmer air into
the region. Temperatures will be well above normal for most of the week
with highs by Thursday ranging from the upper 80s across the piedmont
to the lower and middle 80s west of the Blue Ridge. However along with
the warm temperatures will come increasing humidity and the chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...

After some dense valley fog burns off early this morning...the upper
low which has been with us for several days will still have enough
influence over our weather today to keep a just a slight chance of
showers across the region...especially far north and east...thanks to
the combination of diurnal instability and steep lapse rates in the
cold pool of air aloft. The prospects for thunder look to be very
limited indeed so will not include in the grids. As the day wears on
and the low continues pulling off to the northeast much warmer air will
begin to surge in from the southwest. This will give our temperatures a
much needed boost to slightly above normal...which should feel like a
tropical heat wave after our recent stretch of cool weather. Expect
highs today to reach the lower 80s east of the Blue Ridge with
generally middle and upper 70s to the west. Tonight looks to be quiet
with mostly clear skies and lows ranging from the middle and upper 50s
east to upper 40s and lower 50s west. There may also be valley fog
forming once again late tonight into early Wednesday morning.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 am EDT Tuesday...

Upper heights and 850mb temps continue to rise through the period
as the northeast U.S. upper low continues to lift northeast into
the north Atlantic and troughing deepens and shifts inland across
the southwest U.S. Upper heights across our region will be
nearing 588dm with 850mb temps averaging near +16C through the
period. This will result in much warmer temps than we have seen
over the past 14 days...with temps actually above normal through
the entire period...generally lows in the 50s to lower 60s and
highs in the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere...nearing 90 across
the Piedmont.

Little if any synoptic-scale forcing is evident on Wednesday with
weak upper ridging in place...but all models depict an area of
moisture pooling across the Appalachians..typical of differential
heating across the mountains...which could yield isolated to
widely scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Instability is
minimal at this point...so with no dynamics...activity would be
diurnally driven and non-severe.

On Thursday...the pattern becomes slightly more interesting and
more active convectively speaking. While the region is still under
broad upper ridging...the southwest U.S. tough continues to shift
inland...but more importantly a notable short wave is ejected to
the northeast of the parent upper low into the TN/OH valley by
afternoon. The NAM hits the feature the hardest...but it is
evident via all of the longer range models. This increase in
forcing along with increased thermodynamics...should yield
scattered showers and thunderstorms...again largely diurnally
driven.

By Friday...the aforementioned disturbance has moved to our
northwest...but again a notable area of moisture pooling is
evident across the mountains...but the best area of such has
shifted slightly northwest from Thursday`s location. Of more
importance at this point is a potential tropical system apparent in
most models developing off the southeast U.S. coast. While all
models indicate this system in varying degrees...there are vast
differences in the track of such system...with the GFS most
aggressive in taking in inland into SC/NC...where it circulates
about into the weekend and early next week. This feature may serve
initially to induce increased subsidence across the south and east
portion of our CWA Friday...but beyond that...cannot hinge on any
one solution at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 am EDT Tuesday...

As noted in the section above...weather conditions across the
region through the weekend and into early next week will depend
largely on the track...intensity...and evolution of a potential
tropical system moving from the Bahamas northwest into the
southeast states per GFS...or hugging the SC/NC coast line per
most other models. Clearly...the GFS solution would have a
significant impact on our region in terms of cloud cover and
precipitation...while other model solutions keeping the low track
closer to the coast...would result in more subsidence across our
region and minimal impacts. For sure temperatures will remain on
the warm side with no significant change in air mass underneath a
continuing large-scale ridge...with humidity levels high through
the period. Meanwhile...the western system remains mostly intact
across the western states while overall weakening and lifting more
north than east. Thus...outside a potential tropical system...the
pattern is becoming more-and-more summerlike than we have seen so
far this year. Look for a continuation of highs in the 70s
mountains and 80s elsewhere...with lows mostly in the 50s and 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 aM EDT Tuesday...

We start the period a closed upper low continuing to spin off the
mid Atlantic coast. This will throw some mid/high clouds mainly
into the eastern sites with SKC expected elsewhere. However wet
antecedent conditions in the cool airmass and decent radiational
cooling will allow for some fog to develop. Expect the clouds will
limit fog to MVFR east but IFR/LIFR conditions are expected west.

Any fog/stratus will burn off early and we should see some widely
scattered showers develop with the cold pool aloft continuing to
generate steep lapse rates. The best chance for showers will
likely be near KLYH but will use VCSH at all sites to to cover
the low probability shower activity. Expect VFR conditions by
early this evening with the loss of daytime heating to drive
clouds/showers.

winds will generally be light through the period.

Extended discussion...

We will be going to a more summer like pattern mid to late week
with high pressure offshore providing south to southwest flow.
Thus, mainly VFR weather expected.

However, the potential exists for late night/early morning fog at
times around KLWB/KBCB and in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
Also some convection could pop up each afternoon in the mountains
Thursday into Saturday, making for localized afternoon/evening
MVFR restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 240104
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
904 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will drift northeast and
away from the region overnight, followed by high pressure
building in from the west into Tuesday. As the high pressure
center settles over the Southeast states, west to southwest winds
on the backside of the system will bring above normal temperatures
to the region by midweek.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 845 PM EDT Monday...

Upper low just east of the Delmarva remains very slow to exit with
added spokes of energy resulting in widely scattered convection
that continues to fade with loss of heating. Expect this trend to
prevail over the next few hours with any residual showers
dissipating well before midnight as latest analysis shows only
faint instability remaining. Once the showers end, main question
with the coverage of lingering mid deck on the back of the upper
low as most guidance shows slow clearing overnight as weak high
pressure starts to edge eastward. Appears best shot at seeing
skies completely clear will be over the west where light winds
should lead to more widespread fog late espcly where showers have
occurred over the last couple of days. Think clouds may linger
longer east of the Blue Ridge but even there looks like enough
clearing for patchy fog by daybreak. Otherwise pops ending this
evening with decreasing clouds overnight. Temps to remain on the
cool side for at least one more night with lows 40s to lower 50s
overall.


Previous discussion as of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Low pressure off the Virginia coast this afternoon will lift
northeast tonight and be off the New England coast Tuesday.
The combination of solar heating and cool air aloft associated with
the upper low will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon into tonight.  SPC mesoscale analysis at 18z showed
Surface based CAPES around 500 j/kg especially across northern
portions of the forecast area. The most unstable air this afternoon
was also located across northeast corner of area as seen in the LIs.
The latest KFCX images indicated scattered showers across northern
portions of the forecast area moving southward. Some of the
strongest storms this afternoon into tonight will have the potential
to produce some very small hail considering the relatively low wet
bulb zero levels, and possibly some locally gusty winds and heavy
downpours. Training of storms could result in local water problems.
However, there is not enough lift and shear to create severe
thunderstorms.

Used a blend of RNK WRF ARW, Hiresw-arw-arw and HRRR to create pops
for this afternoon into tonight. The higher resolution models imply
that the a best location for stronger storms will be along/near a
corridor from the Alleghany Highlands southwest through the New
River Valley.  Expect to see a rapid dissipation of any lingering
convection this evening with loss of daytime heating and as upper
low pressure finally moves away from the area. Arrival of surface
ridge and clearing skies under weak subsidence may set the stage for
the development of some patchy late night fog, most notably in the
deeper mountain valleys, and perhaps some of the more sheltered low
lying areas of the Piedmont. Low temperatures will range from
the mid 40s in the mountains to the lower 50s in the piedmont.

The closed upper low pulls away from the region on Tuesday. An
isolated shower may be possible across northern portions of the
county warning area. Morning low clouds and fog should lift by mid
morning allowing sunshine to return. High temperatures Tuesday will
vary from the upper 60s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the
Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Dry weather continues on Tuesday night with patchy fog possible in
the mountain valleys. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be mild
than tonight with readings from the upper 40s in the mountains to
the upper 50s in the Piedmont. Afterward, we will be
transitioning to a summerlike pattern with broad ridging aloft and
a Bermuda high off the Southeast coast. High temperatures on
Wednesday will climb into the lower 70s in the mountains to the
mid 80s in the Piedmont. Maximum temperatures on Thursday will
moderate to the mid 70s in the mountains to the upper 80s in the
Piedmont.

Humidity will also be on the rise so conditions will start to feel a
bit uncomfortable and may require running the air conditioner or
fan. The heat and humidity will also create diurnal instability
and give us a chance for mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through the middle of the week with the best chances
from the Blue Ridge westward. By Thursday night, low temperatures
across the region will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...

Summerlike weather with mid to late June temperatures and scattered
diurnal afternoon and evening convection continues into the holiday
weekend as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast U.S.. The
combination of topography, instability and moisture each day across
the Appalachians will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with a lesser threat in the Piedmont.

Highs Friday through MOnday will range from the upper 70s to lower
80s in the mountains to mid to upper 80s in the piedmont. Lows will
generally run from the upper 50s to lower 60s mountains to mid 60s
Piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 PM EDT Monday...

Additional widely scattered clusters of convection will continue to
drift southwest across the area until shortly past sunset when
should finally should coverage fade with loss of heating. This
will result in only brief MVFR cigs/vsbys with the majority seeing
VFR into this evening. Thus will continue to cover with a VCSH
mention most spots until a shower or storm looks to directly
impact a specific airport when will amend for lower conditions.

Most of the threat for storms will end before midnight given loss
of daytime heating and the exiting upper low/cold pool offshore.

Dense valley fog is possible overnight under slow clearing. In
the west, and a bit more removed from upper low, partial clearing
over a moist ground combining with light winds support the
development of patchy fog in the SW VA and SE WV mountain valleys.
This supports including a period of IFR/LIFR at KLWB/KBCB before
daybreak and at locations such as KLYH that saw earlier rainfall.
Patchy fog also possible around KROA but wont include for now.
Also weak upslope flow may result in stratus/fog at KBLF with sub-
VFR possible there per latest guidance but lower confidence at
this point.

Overall expecting improving aviation weather after the upper low
lifts out by Tuesday and high pressure builds in. Light and
variable winds tonight will become west around 10 mph Tuesday
afternoon under scattered to broken VFR cloud canopy.

Medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds during the
taf period.

Extended discussion...

We will be going to a more summer like pattern mid to late week
with high pressure offshore providing south to southwest flow.
Thus, mainly VFR weather expected.

However, the potential exists for late night/early morning fog at
times around KLWB/KBCB and in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
Also some convection could pop up each afternoon in the mountains
Thursday into Saturday, making for localized afternoon/evening
MVFR restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 232309
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will drift northeast and
away from the region tonight, followed by high pressure building
in from the west on Tuesday. As the high pressure center settles
over the Southeast states, west to southwest winds on the backside
of the system will bring above normal temperatures to the region
by midweek.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Low pressure off the Virginia coast this afternoon will lift
northeast tonight and be off the New England coast Tuesday.
The combination of solar heating and cool air aloft associated with
the upper low will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon into tonight.  SPC mesoscale analysis at 18z showed
Surface based CAPES around 500 j/kg especially across northern
portions of the forecast area. The most unstable air this afternoon
was also located across northeast corner of area as seen in the LIs.
The latest KFCX images indicated scattered showers across northern
portions of the forecast area moving southward. Some of the
strongest storms this afternoon into tonight will have the potential
to produce some very small hail considering the relatively low wet
bulb zero levels, and possibly some locally gusty winds and heavy
downpours. Training of storms could result in local water problems.
However, there is not enough lift and shear to create severe
thunderstorms.

Used a blend of RNK WRF ARW, Hiresw-arw-arw and HRRR to create pops
for this afternoon into tonight. The higher resolution models imply
that the a best location for stronger storms will be along/near a
corridor from the Alleghany Highlands southwest through the New
River Valley.  Expect to see a rapid dissipation of any lingering
convection this evening with loss of daytime heating and as upper
low pressure finally moves away from the area. Arrival of surface
ridge and clearing skies under weak subsidence may set the stage for
the development of some patchy late night fog, most notably in the
deeper mountain valleys, and perhaps some of the more sheltered low
lying areas of the Piedmont. Low temperatures will range from
the mid 40s in the mountains to the lower 50s in the piedmont.

The closed upper low pulls away from the region on Tuesday. An
isolated shower may be possible across northern portions of the
county warning area. Morning low clouds and fog should lift by mid
morning allowing sunshine to return. High temperatures Tuesday will
vary from the upper 60s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the
Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Dry weather continues on Tuesday night with patchy fog possible in
the mountain valleys. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be mild
than tonight with readings from the upper 40s in the mountains to
the upper 50s in the Piedmont. Afterward, we will be
transitioning to a summerlike pattern with broad ridging aloft and
a Bermuda high off the Southeast coast. High temperatures on
Wednesday will climb into the lower 70s in the mountains to the
mid 80s in the Piedmont. Maximum temperatures on Thursday will
moderate to the mid 70s in the mountains to the upper 80s in the
Piedmont.

Humidity will also be on the rise so conditions will start to feel a
bit uncomfortable and may require running the air conditioner or
fan. The heat and humidity will also create diurnal instability
and give us a chance for mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through the middle of the week with the best chances
from the Blue Ridge westward. By Thursday night, low temperatures
across the region will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...

Summerlike weather with mid to late June temperatures and scattered
diurnal afternoon and evening convection continues into the holiday
weekend as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast U.S.. The
combination of topography, instability and moisture each day across
the Appalachians will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with a lesser threat in the Piedmont.

Highs Friday through MOnday will range from the upper 70s to lower
80s in the mountains to mid to upper 80s in the piedmont. Lows will
generally run from the upper 50s to lower 60s mountains to mid 60s
Piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 PM EDT Monday...

Additional widely scattered clusters of convection will continue to
drift southwest across the area until shortly past sunset when
should finally should coverage fade with loss of heating. This
will result in only brief MVFR cigs/vsbys with the majority seeing
VFR into this evening. Thus will continue to cover with a VCSH
mention most spots until a shower or storm looks to directly
impact a specific airport when will amend for lower conditions.

Most of the threat for storms will end before midnight given loss
of daytime heating and the exiting upper low/cold pool offshore.

Dense valley fog is possible overnight under slow clearing. In
the west, and a bit more removed from upper low, partial clearing
over a moist ground combining with light winds support the
development of patchy fog in the SW VA and SE WV mountain valleys.
This supports including a period of IFR/LIFR at KLWB/KBCB before
daybreak and at locations such as KLYH that saw earlier rainfall.
Patchy fog also possible around KROA but wont include for now.
Also weak upslope flow may result in stratus/fog at KBLF with sub-
VFR possible there per latest guidance but lower confidence at
this point.

Overall expecting improving aviation weather after the upper low
lifts out by Tuesday and high pressure builds in. Light and
variable winds tonight will become west around 10 mph Tuesday
afternoon under scattered to broken VFR cloud canopy.

Medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds during the
taf period.

Extended discussion...

We will be going to a more summer like pattern mid to late week
with high pressure offshore providing south to southwest flow.
Thus, mainly VFR weather expected.

However, the potential exists for late night/early morning fog at
times around KLWB/KBCB and in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
Also some convection could pop up each afternoon in the mountains
Thursday into Saturday, making for localized afternoon/evening
MVFR restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231301
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
901 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system off the mid Atlantic coastline will drift
northeast and away from the region tonight into Tuesday as high
pressure builds in from the west. As the high pressure system
settles over the southeast states, west to southwest winds on the
backside of the system will bring above normal temperatures to the
mid Appalachian and mid Atlantic region by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 901 AM EDT Monday...

Made some minor adjustments in temperatures for this morning into
this afternoon, shaping ISC grids towards sfc obs and their
trends. Modified pops and weather with current radar trends and
leaning to RNK WRF ARW for late morning into this afternoon. Weak
shortwaves will rotate around the upper low lifting to the
northeast. This will result in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, some of the
strongest storms will have the potential to produce some very
small hail considering the relatively low wet bulb zero levels,
and possibly some locally gusty winds and heavy downpours.
Forecasted high temperatures look on the mark with readings in the
upper 50s in the northwest mountains to lower 70s in the Piedmont.
more changes later today...

As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

One last day of unsettled weather is expected today until much
warmer weather arrives from the west for the mid- to late week
period.

Closed upper low pressure over southeastern VA will drift east to
off the mid Atlantic coast by late today, then lift northeast to
off the New England coast by daybreak Tuesday.

Moisture and weak forcing rotating around the western periphery of
the upper low will maintain an ongoing threat of showers to at least
the eastern third of the Blacksburg forecast area this morning.
Further south and west, some partial clearing on periphery of upper
low combining with moist ground and light winds has allowed for some
development of patchy fog from the Mountain Empire Area north toward
Bluefield. Expect fog to rapidly improve/dissipate with onset of
daytime heating - perhaps a bit earlier if cloud shield from upper
low pinwheels back into that area.

As was the case yesterday, daytime surface heating and cool air
aloft under/in proximity to upper low should be sufficient to
support better vertical cloud development by early afternoon.
Forecast soundings again showing CAPE of around 300-500 J/Kg with
relatively low freezing/wet bulb zero levels. This should be
sufficient for at least some isolated thunderstorms within a broader
area of increasing showers.

Some of the higher resolution models imply that there may be a
sweet spot for stronger storms along/near a corridor from the
Alleghany Highlands southwest through the New River Valley which
will be far enough removed from the more widespread cloud shield
under the closed low to have a bit more initial sunshine and
increased thermodynamic support - but not so far west of the upper
low where the mid troposphere will be a bit drier/warmer and
therefore less supportive for upward vertical ascent.

Similar to yesterday, some of the strongest storms will have the
potential to produce some very small hail considering the
relatively low wet bulb zero levels, and possibly some locally
gusty winds due to a temperature/dew point spread that will be
approximately 20F - but certainly not strong enough to imply a
severe weather concern.

Expect to see a rapid dissipation of any lingering shower
activity by early evening with loss of daytime heating and as
upper low pressure finally moves away from the area. Arrival of
surface ridge and clearing skies under weak subsidence may set
the stage for the redevelopment of some patchy late night fog,
most notably in the deeper mountain valleys, and perhaps some of
the more sheltered low lying areas of the Piedmont.

With little change of airmass, temperatures today will likely to
be very similar to that experienced on Sunday - with highs mainly
from the upper 50s across the higher elevations to around 70 along
the VA/NC state line into the foothills of NC. Overnight lows
tonight should be generally in the 40s in the mountains, to lower
50s across much of the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

As the closed upper low finally starts to pull away from the region on
Tuesday some lingering effects will keep a slight chance of a shower or
storm across far northeast sections. Thereafter we will be
transitioning to a very summerlike pattern with broad ridging aloft and
a Bermuda high off the southeast coast. This will bring a substantial
rise in our temperatures as highs go from upper 70s/around 80 east of
the Blue Ridge on Tuesday to middle/upper 80s by Thursday...and
readings west of the Ridge go from low/mid 70s to upper 70s/lower 80s.
Humidity will also be on the rise so conditions will start to feel a
bit uncomfortable and require a dusting off of the air conditioner. The
heat and humidity will also create diurnal instability and give us a
chance for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the
middle of the week with the best chances from the Blue Ridge
westward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1211 PM EDT Sunday...

Expect warmer...more like mid to late June type temperatures and
weather into the holiday weekend as an upper ridge builds over the
Southeast U.S. This pattern will favor mainly dry yet more humid
conditions. There will be enough instability and moisture each day
across the Appalachians to generate scattered showers and thunderstorm,
with less threat in the Piedmont. The cycle will be typical diurnal
afternoon/evening variety.

Highs Thu-Sun will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s in the
mountains to mid to upper 80s in the piedmont. Lows will generally run
from the upper 50s to lower 60s mountains to mid 60s piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 707 AM EDT Monday...

Southwestward moving bands of showers on western periphery of
upper low pressure over eastern VA will continue to threaten
mainly Piedmont areas with occasional MVFR flight restrictions
through this morning.

Further west, and a bit more removed from upper low, partial clearing
over a moist ground combining with light winds supported the
development of patchy fog in the SW VA and SE WV mountain valleys
- bringing KBLF and KMKJ down into the LIFR range. Threat for IFR
to LIFR restrictions should continue in this area into mid
morning before onset of daytime heating helps to improve flight
conditions back to mainly VFR weather by mid morning as fog
lifts/mixes out.

However, onset of heating will again help to reignite widely
scattered to scattered shower/thunderstorm development by early-
mid afternoon as proximity to upper low to east and associated
cool pool provide sufficient instability for vertical development
- similar to that experienced on Sunday, although perhaps a bit
less robust in nature. As a result, have included VCTS in all
terminal forecast sites for afternoon period - with threat ending
by early evening with loss of daytime heating and as upper low
finally begins to drift further east and away from area.

Extended discussion...

Overall expecting improving aviation weather after the upper low
lifts out tonight into Tuesday. We will be going to a more summer
like pattern mid to late week with high pressure offshore
providing south to southwest flow. Thus, mainly VFR weather
expected.

However, the potential exists for late night/early morning fog at
times around KLWB/KBCB and in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
Also some convection could pop up in the mountains Thursday into
Friday, making for localized afternoon/evening MVFR restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/WERT/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231107
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
707 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system off the mid Atlantic coastline will drift
northeast and away from the region tonight into Tuesday as high
pressure builds in from the west. As the high pressure system
settles over the southeast states, west to southwest winds on the
backside of the system will bring above normal temperatures to the
mid Appalachian and mid Atlantic region by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

One last day of unsettled weather is expected today until much
warmer weather arrives from the west for the mid- to late week
period.

Closed upper low pressure over southeastern VA will drift east to
off the mid Atlantic coast by late today, then lift northeast to
off the New England coast by daybreak Tuesday.

Moisture and weak forcing rotating around the western periphery of
the upper low will maintain an ongoing threat of showers to at least
the eastern third of the Blacksburg forecast area this morning.
Further south and west, some partial clearing on periphery of upper
low combining with moist ground and light winds has allowed for some
development of patchy fog from the Mountain Empire Area north toward
Bluefield. Expect fog to rapidly improve/dissipate with onset of
daytime heating - perhaps a bit earlier if cloud shield from upper
low pinwheels back into that area.

As was the case yesterday, daytime surface heating and cool air
aloft under/in proximity to upper low should be sufficient to
support better vertical cloud development by early afternoon.
Forecast soundings again showing CAPE of around 300-500 J/Kg with
relatively low freezing/wet bulb zero levels. This should be
sufficient for at least some isolated thunderstorms within a broader
area of increasing showers.

Some of the higher resolution models imply that there may be a
sweet spot for stronger storms along/near a corridor from the
Alleghany Highlands southwest through the New River Valley which
will be far enough removed from the more widespread cloud shield
under the closed low to have a bit more initial sunshine and
increased thermodynamic support - but not so far west of the upper
low where the mid troposphere will be a bit drier/warmer and
therefore less supportive for upward vertical ascent.

Similar to yesterday, some of the strongest storms will have the
potential to produce some very small hail considering the
relatively low wet bulb zero levels, and possibly some locally
gusty winds due to a temperature/dew point spread that will be
approximately 20F - but certainly not strong enough to imply a
severe weather concern.

Expect to see a rapid dissipation of any lingering shower
activity by early evening with loss of daytime heating and as
upper low pressure finally moves away from the area. Arrival of
surface ridge and clearing skies under weak subsidence may set
the stage for the redevelopment of some patchy late night fog,
most notably in the deeper mountain valleys, and perhaps some of
the more sheltered low lying areas of the Piedmont.

With little change of airmass, temperatures today will likely to
be very similar to that experienced on Sunday - with highs mainly
from the upper 50s across the higher elevations to around 70 along
the VA/NC state line into the foothills of NC. Overnight lows
tonight should be generally in the 40s in the mountains, to lower
50s across much of the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

As the closed upper low finally starts to pull away from the region on
Tuesday some lingering effects will keep a slight chance of a shower or
storm across far northeast sections. Thereafter we will be
transitioning to a very summerlike pattern with broad ridging aloft and
a Bermuda high off the southeast coast. This will bring a substantial
rise in our temperatures as highs go from upper 70s/around 80 east of
the Blue Ridge on Tuesday to middle/upper 80s by Thursday...and
readings west of the Ridge go from low/mid 70s to upper 70s/lower 80s.
Humidity will also be on the rise so conditions will start to feel a
bit uncomfortable and require a dusting off of the air conditioner. The
heat and humidity will also create diurnal instability and give us a
chance for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the
middle of the week with the best chances from the Blue Ridge
westward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1211 PM EDT Sunday...

Expect warmer...more like mid to late June type temperatures and
weather into the holiday weekend as an upper ridge builds over the
Southeast U.S. This pattern will favor mainly dry yet more humid
conditions. There will be enough instability and moisture each day
across the Appalachians to generate scattered showers and thunderstorm,
with less threat in the Piedmont. The cycle will be typical diurnal
afternoon/evening variety.

Highs Thu-Sun will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s in the
mountains to mid to upper 80s in the piedmont. Lows will generally run
from the upper 50s to lower 60s mountains to mid 60s piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 707 AM EDT Monday...

Southwestward moving bands of showers on western periphery of
upper low pressure over eastern VA will continue to threaten
mainly Piedmont areas with occasional MVFR flight restrictions
through this morning.

Further west, and a bit more removed from upper low, partial clearing
over a moist ground combining with light winds supported the
development of patchy fog in the SW VA and SE WV mountain valleys
- bringing KBLF and KMKJ down into the LIFR range. Threat for IFR
to LIFR restrictions should continue in this area into mid
morning before onset of daytime heating helps to improve flight
conditions back to mainly VFR weather by mid morning as fog
lifts/mixes out.

However, onset of heating will again help to reignite widely
scattered to scattered shower/thunderstorm development by early-
mid afternoon as proximity to upper low to east and associated
cool pool provide sufficient instability for vertical development
- similar to that experienced on Sunday, although perhaps a bit
less robust in nature. As a result, have included VCTS in all
terminal forecast sites for afternoon period - with threat ending
by early evening with loss of daytime heating and as upper low
finally begins to drift further east and away from area.

Extended discussion...

Overall expecting improving aviation weather after the upper low
lifts out tonight into Tuesday. We will be going to a more summer
like pattern mid to late week with high pressure offshore
providing south to southwest flow. Thus, mainly VFR weather
expected.

However, the potential exists for late night/early morning fog at
times around KLWB/KBCB and in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
Also some convection could pop up in the mountains Thursday into
Friday, making for localized afternoon/evening MVFR restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/WERT/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230751
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
351 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system off the mid Atlantic coastline will drift
northeast and away from the region tonight into Tuesday as high
pressure builds in from the west. As the high pressure system
settles over the southeast states, west to southwest winds on the
backside of the system will bring above normal temperatures to the
mid Appalachian and mid Atlantic region by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

One last day of unsettled weather is expected today until much
warmer weather arrives from the west for the mid- to late week
period.

Closed upper low pressure over southeastern VA will drift east to
off the mid Atlantic coast by late today, then lift northeast to
off the New England coast by daybreak Tuesday.

Moisture and weak forcing rotating around the western periphery of
the upper low will maintain an ongoing threat of showers to at least
the eastern third of the Blacksburg forecast area this morning.
Further south and west, some partial clearing on periphery of upper
low combining with moist ground and light winds has allowed for some
development of patchy fog from the Mountain Empire Area north toward
Bluefield. Expect fog to rapidly improve/dissipate with onset of
daytime heating - perhaps a bit earlier if cloud shield from upper
low pinwheels back into that area.

As was the case yesterday, daytime surface heating and cool air
aloft under/in proximity to upper low should be sufficient to
support better vertical cloud development by early afternoon.
Forecast soundings again showing CAPE of around 300-500 J/Kg with
relatively low freezing/wet bulb zero levels. This should be
sufficient for at least some isolated thunderstorms within a broader
area of increasing showers.

Some of the higher resolution models imply that there may be a
sweet spot for stronger storms along/near a corridor from the
Alleghany Highlands southwest through the New River Valley which
will be far enough removed from the more widespread cloud shield
under the closed low to have a bit more initial sunshine and
increased thermodynamic support - but not so far west of the upper
low where the mid troposphere will be a bit drier/warmer and
therefore less supportive for upward vertical ascent.

Similar to yesterday, some of the strongest storms will have the
potential to produce some very small hail considering the
relatively low wet bulb zero levels, and possibly some locally
gusty winds due to a temperature/dew point spread that will be
approximately 20F - but certainly not strong enough to imply a
severe weather concern.

Expect to see a rapid dissipation of any lingering shower
activity by early evening with loss of daytime heating and as
upper low pressure finally moves away from the area. Arrival of
surface ridge and clearing skies under weak subsidence may set
the stage for the redevelopment of some patchy late night fog,
most notably in the deeper mountain valleys, and perhaps some of
the more sheltered low lying areas of the Piedmont.

With little change of airmass, temperatures today will likely to
be very similar to that experienced on Sunday - with highs mainly
from the upper 50s across the higher elevations to around 70 along
the VA/NC state line into the foothills of NC. Overnight lows
tonight should be generally in the 40s in the mountains, to lower
50s across much of the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

As the closed upper low finally starts to pull away from the region on
Tuesday some lingering effects will keep a slight chance of a shower or
storm across far northeast sections. Thereafter we will be
transitioning to a very summerlike pattern with broad ridging aloft and
a Bermuda high off the southeast coast. This will bring a substantial
rise in our temperatures as highs go from upper 70s/around 80 east of
the Blue Ridge on Tuesday to middle/upper 80s by Thursday...and
readings west of the Ridge go from low/mid 70s to upper 70s/lower 80s.
Humidity will also be on the rise so conditions will start to feel a
bit uncomfortable and require a dusting off of the air conditioner. The
heat and humidity will also create diurnal instability and give us a
chance for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the
middle of the week with the best chances from the Blue Ridge
westward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1211 PM EDT Sunday...

Expect warmer...more like mid to late June type temperatures and
weather into the holiday weekend as an upper ridge builds over the
Southeast U.S. This pattern will favor mainly dry yet more humid
conditions. There will be enough instability and moisture each day
across the Appalachians to generate scattered showers and thunderstorm,
with less threat in the Piedmont. The cycle will be typical diurnal
afternoon/evening variety.

Highs Thu-Sun will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s in the
mountains to mid to upper 80s in the piedmont. Lows will generally run
from the upper 50s to lower 60s mountains to mid 60s piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

Southwestward moving bands of light showers/sprinkles on western
periphery of upper low pressure over eastern VA will continue to
threaten mainly Piedmont areas overnight, but with ceilings and
visibilities mainly remaining in the VFR range.

Further west and more removed from upper low, some clearing over
a moist ground combining with light winds has supported the
development of some patchy fog across portions of SW VA into SE WV
- with KBLF and KMKJ already down into the LIFR range. Threat for
IFR to LIFR restrictions should continue for the rest of the night
in this area, perhaps also impacting areas as far north as KLWB
until onset of daytime heating - with return to mainly VFR weather
expected by mid morning as fog lifts/mixes out.

However, onset of daytime heating will again help to reignite
widely scattered to scattered shower/thunderstorm development by
early- mid afternoon as proximity to upper low to east and
associated cool pool provide sufficient instability for vertical
development - similar to that experienced on Sunday, although
perhaps a bit less robust in nature. As a result, have included
VCTS in all terminal forecast sites for afternoon period - with
threat ending by early evening with loss of daytime heating and as
upper low finally begins to drift further east and away from area.

Extended discussion...

Overall expecting improving aviation weather after the upper low
lifts out Monday night into Tuesday. We will be going to a more
summer like pattern mid to late week with high pressure offshore
providing south to southwest flow. Thus, mainly VFR weather expected.

However, the potential exists for late night/early morning fog at
times around KLWB/KBCB and in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
Also some convection could pop up in the mountains Thursday-
Friday, making for localized afternoon/evening MVFR restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/WERT/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230552
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
152 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low over the area will finally head offshore by Monday
evening, before lifting north toward the New England coast
Tuesday. As this occurs, high pressure builds in and temperatures
will start to rise back to at or above seasonal levels by mid to
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 905 PM EDT Sunday...

Last cluster of deep convection has pushed to the south of the
area during the past hour with just some remaining residual
showers mainly over the west with the vort axis along the western
side of the upper low. Expect these to gradually fade given loss
of heating but still enough faint surface based instability to
keep some low pops in through about midnight far west/sw.
Elsewhere given worked over nature to most areas along the Blue
Ridge and across the southeast per the exiting meso low, expecting
a few hours of little rainfall. However the core of the upper low
now over northern VA will sink south reaching the Outer Banks
early Monday. Latest short term guidance shows current light
showers rotating around this feature pivoting back southwest
after midnight. This will likely cause showers to return to parts
of the area mainly east of the Blue Ridge into Monday morning.
Thus trimmed back pops for a few hours through late this evening
before ramping up to low likelys LYH vicinity, and points east
late, with slight/chance coverage back to the Blue Ridge.
Otherwise mainly cloudy and continued cool with some locations
already near forecast lows due to cooling from earlier showers.
This still supports lows mostly in the upper 40s to mid 50s.


Previous discussion as of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue from Southwest
VA/SE West Virginia, east to the Piedmont thru evening, with storms
dying off after dusk. High-res models favoring two corridors now for
best coverage...albeit still mainly scattered. One over the far SW
VA mountains and the other still from the Alleghanys to Southside
VA. There may be a lull in activity overnight between shortwaves,
but another stronger wave moving in from KY into SC overnight
combined with the upper low over NC will keep threat going thru
Monday morning...but looks like the piedmont has better threat.
Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 40s west to lower 50s
east.

Monday, the upper low slowly moves off the NC/VA coast by will
continue to see shortwaves rotate in from the north on the west side
of this system. Still looks at least a scattered coverage of mainly
showers over most of the forecast area by midday into the afternoon.
With more clouds than sun across the area look for highs to be
similar to today from the mid to upper 60s west to upper 60s to
lower 70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 306 pm EDT Sunday...

A pattern change is coming finally for those who have not enjoyed
the cooler weather. As the upper low pulls away to the north toward
the New England coast Tuesday, upper heights will rise with surface
high pressure building overhead. Lingering showers over the
northeast CWA will diminish Monday evening. Skies clear but temps
will only fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday will start the warmup but highs will be close to normal for
late May ranging from the lower to mid 70s west to upper 70s to
around 80 east under mainly sunny skies.

Dewpoints to start edging up into the 50s Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the high moves to off the Southeast coast, but staying
strong enough to keep skies clear to partly cloudy. Somewhat
westerly flow Wednesday allow temps to soar into the mid 80s east of
the Blue Ridge, with upper 70s to around 80 in the mountains. Models
are keeping the main storm track over the middle of the country,
though as we start to heat up cannot rule out a stray shower in the
afternoon over the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1211 PM EDT Sunday...

Expect warmer...more like mid to late June type temperatures and
weather from midweek into the holiday weekend as an upper ridge
builds over the Southeast U.S. This pattern will favor mainly dry
yet more humid conditions. There will be enough instability and
moisture each day across the Appalachians to generate scattered
showers and thunderstorm, with less threat in the Piedmont. The
cycle will be typical diurnal afternoon/evening variety.

Highs Thu-Sun will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s in the
mountains to mid to upper 80s in the piedmont.

Lows will generally run from the upper 50s to lower 60s mountains to
mid 60s piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

Southwestward moving bands of light showers/sprinkles on western
periphery of upper low pressure over eastern VA will continue to
threaten mainly Piedmont areas overnight, but with ceilings and
visibilities mainly remaining in the VFR range.

Further west and more removed from upper low, some clearing over
a moist ground combining with light winds has supported the
development of some patchy fog across portions of SW VA into SE WV
- with KBLF and KMKJ already down into the LIFR range. Threat for
IFR to LIFR restrictions should continue for the rest of the night
in this area, perhaps also impacting areas as far north as KLWB
until onset of daytime heating - with return to mainly VFR weather
expected by mid morning as fog lifts/mixes out.

However, onset of daytime heating will again help to reignite
widely scattered to scattered shower/thunderstorm development by
early- mid afternoon as proximity to upper low to east and
associated cool pool provide sufficient instability for vertical
development - similar to that experienced on Sunday, although
perhaps a bit less robust in nature. As a result, have included
VCTS in all terminal forecast sites for afternoon period - with
threat ending by early evening with loss of daytime heating and as
upper low finally begins to drift further east and away from area.

Extended discussion...

Overall expecting improving aviation weather after the upper low
lifts out Monday night into Tuesday. We will be going to a more
summer like pattern mid to late week with high pressure offshore
providing south to southwest flow. Thus, mainly VFR weather expected.

However, the potential exists for late night/early morning fog at
times around KLWB/KBCB and in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
Also some convection could pop up in the mountains Thursday-
Friday, making for localized afternoon/evening MVFR restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/WERT/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230121
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
921 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low over the area will finally head offshore by Monday
evening, before lifting north toward the New England coast
Tuesday. As this occurs, high pressure builds in and temperatures
will start to rise back to at or above seasonal levels by mid to
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 905 PM EDT Sunday...

Last cluster of deep convection has pushed to the south of the
area during the past hour with just some remaining residual
showers mainly over the west with the vort axis along the western
side of the upper low. Expect these to gradually fade given loss
of heating but still enough faint surface based instability to
keep some low pops in through about midnight far west/sw.
Elsewhere given worked over nature to most areas along the Blue
Ridge and across the southeast per the exiting meso low, expecting
a few hours of little rainfall. However the core of the upper low
now over northern VA will sink south reaching the Outer Banks
early Monday. Latest short term guidance shows current light
showers rotating around this feature pivoting back southwest
after midnight. This will likely cause showers to return to parts
of the area mainly east of the Blue Ridge into Monday morning.
Thus trimmed back pops for a few hours through late this evening
before ramping up to low likelys LYH vicinity, and points east
late, with slight/chance coverage back to the Blue Ridge.
Otherwise mainly cloudy and continued cool with some locations
already near forecast lows due to cooling from earlier showers.
This still supports lows mostly in the upper 40s to mid 50s.


Previous discussion as of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue from Southwest
VA/SE West Virginia, east to the Piedmont thru evening, with storms
dying off after dusk. High-res models favoring two corridors now for
best coverage...albeit still mainly scattered. One over the far SW
VA mountains and the other still from the Alleghanys to Southside
VA. There may be a lull in activity overnight between shortwaves,
but another stronger wave moving in from KY into SC overnight
combined with the upper low over NC will keep threat going thru
Monday morning...but looks like the piedmont has better threat.
Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 40s west to lower 50s
east.

Monday, the upper low slowly moves off the NC/VA coast by will
continue to see shortwaves rotate in from the north on the west side
of this system. Still looks at least a scattered coverage of mainly
showers over most of the forecast area by midday into the afternoon.
With more clouds than sun across the area look for highs to be
similar to today from the mid to upper 60s west to upper 60s to
lower 70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 306 pm EDT Sunday...

A pattern change is coming finally for those who have not enjoyed
the cooler weather. As the upper low pulls away to the north toward
the New England coast Tuesday, upper heights will rise with surface
high pressure building overhead. Lingering showers over the
northeast CWA will diminish Monday evening. Skies clear but temps
will only fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday will start the warmup but highs will be close to normal for
late May ranging from the lower to mid 70s west to upper 70s to
around 80 east under mainly sunny skies.

Dewpoints to start edging up into the 50s Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the high moves to off the Southeast coast, but staying
strong enough to keep skies clear to partly cloudy. Somewhat
westerly flow Wednesday allow temps to soar into the mid 80s east of
the Blue Ridge, with upper 70s to around 80 in the mountains. Models
are keeping the main storm track over the middle of the country,
though as we start to heat up cannot rule out a stray shower in the
afternoon over the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1211 PM EDT Sunday...

Expect warmer...more like mid to late June type temperatures and
weather from midweek into the holiday weekend as an upper ridge
builds over the Southeast U.S. This pattern will favor mainly dry
yet more humid conditions. There will be enough instability and
moisture each day across the Appalachians to generate scattered
showers and thunderstorm, with less threat in the Piedmont. The
cycle will be typical diurnal afternoon/evening variety.

Highs Thu-Sun will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s in the
mountains to mid to upper 80s in the piedmont.

Lows will generally run from the upper 50s to lower 60s mountains to
mid 60s piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 PM EDT Sunday...

Southward moving bands of showers and storms will continue into
early this evening with some spotty small hail around within the
stronger storms mainly in the KLYH-KDAN corridor. Showers should
start to diminish by 02Z/10 PM, and eventually end over the
entire terminal forecast area overnight following loss of daytime
heating. However, some isolated lingering showers may occur after
midnight along and east of a KLYH-KDAN line which will remain
closer to an upper level low pressure system near the coast.
Models favor some lowering of broken cigs to around 1-3k ft with
some MVFR fog. Confidence just high enough to keep MVFR at most
sites although expecting mostly VFR for a while after the showers
taper off later this evening.

Will see continuation of mainly broken ceilings Monday though
should rise to VFR by late morning. Showers and isolated storms
again possible moreso east of a KDAN to KLYH line, though some
may slip toward the mountains in the afternoon, but coverage will
be more isolated than today. Given likely bands of showers over
the east, included a prevailing VFR shower mention from KROA east
Monday afternoon while leaving out elsewhere given uncertainty at
this point. Otherwise looking at a mix of VFR to high end MVFR
cloud bases in the afternoon, but with much weaker northerly
winds at 5-15 kts.

Extended discussion...

Overall expecting improving aviation weather after the upper low
lifts out Monday night into Tuesday. We will be going to a more
summer like pattern mid to late week with high pressure offshore
providing south to southwest flow. Thus mainly VFR expected but
the potential exists for early morning fog at times around
KLWB/KBCB. Also some convection could pop up in the mountains
Thursday-Friday making for localized afternoon/evening MVFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/WERT/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220837
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
437 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems will lift northeast off the mid
Atlantic and New England coasts through Tuesday as higher
pressure builds slowly east from out of the Mississippi Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Sunday...

Several spokes of short wave energy rounding base of upper trof
over the central and northern Appalachians will help to amplify
upper flow and support development of vertically stacked H7-H5 low
pressure that will drift south from out of upstate NY into eastern
VA by this evening - then drift east to the coast by daybreak
Monday.

Mid-level lapse rates expected to steepen as daytime heating
combines with slight cooling aloft with approach of upper low,
once again supporting the redevelopment of scattered showers by
late morning/early afternoon - with the threat continuing until
at least mid- to late evening until thermodynamic support
wanes.

However, increasing northwesterly winds throughout the day will
transport slightly cooler and drier air back into the area such
that despite steepening mid level lapse rates, amount of
convective available potential energy will be less than on
Saturday. As a result, forecast soundings not particularly
impressive in generating sufficient instability to warrant
inclusion of thunder in the forecast - although an isolated
rumble not entirely out of the question if insolation a bit
greater than currently expected.

Highest threat for precipitation today into tonight will likely
be north of a line extending from near Bluefield WV to Danville
VA, which will be closer to the deeper moisture and colder air
aloft in vicinity of the approaching upper low. Downsloping winds
and slightly warmer/drier air aloft over the NC foothills should
help to minimize threat of precipitation in that area.

Cool air advection and cloud cover in most areas should help to
keep daytime highs lower than those experienced on Saturday -
mainly mid 50s across the highest elevations, to around 70 across
southside VA into north central NC. Overnight lows should be
fairly uniform across the area - mainly mid to upper 40s in the
mountains, to the lower 50s across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...

The blocky upper pattern which has been prominent for the past several
days will slowly be transitioning through the first part of next week.
The closed upper low and associated cold pool aloft over the mid
Atlantic region will be replaced by a broad low amplitude upper ridge
and a Bermuda high at the surface by the middle of the week. This will
bring a gradual improvement in our weather along with a significant
warming trend.

The influence of the upper low combined with diurnal instability will
still be great enough to keep a good chance of showers across most of
the region on Monday. By Tuesday as the ridging begins we will be down
to just a slight chance of showers across the eastern portion of the
area. However as the evolution of the pattern begins to pump steadily
warmer and more moist air into the region the chances for showers and
thunderstorms will start to increase again by Wednesday afternoon.

We will start the week with very cool conditions as temperatures remain
5 to 10 degrees below normal with highs in the lower 70s east of the
Blue Ridge and in the low to mid 60s to the west. However by Wednesday
we will be getting a taste of summer with highs in the middle 80s east
of the Ridge and in the mid 70s/around 80 to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

The upper level low tracks northeast of the area and off the New
England coast Tuesday night. Behind this system high pressure and upper
level ridge will bring very warm weather to the region with
temperatures remaining above normal through Saturday. With the warmer
weather comes a better chance for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening. Storms do not look organized but pulse-like,
tracking slowly from the southwest to the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Sunday...

Mainly MVFR flight conditions expected at most terminal forecast
points overnight as gradually increasing upsloping winds maintain
clouds over the mountains. Further east, weakness in the pressure
gradient and influence of weak moist cool wedge should help to
keep low level clouds trapped, where some flight restrictions
into the ifr range are likely - most notably at/near Lynchburg
and Danville.

Persistent upper low will drop south over the area Sunday with
the next round of shortwave energy producing the best coverage of
showers across the north and east from late morning into the early
evening. Expecting a faster improvement in conditions early
Sunday as increasing northwest winds kick in and lower ceilings
and visibilities rise. However, once daytime heating
develops, will likely see ceilings fill back in with MVFR cloud
bases - especially in upslope areas such as KBLF, and where any
afternoon showers redevelop under the upper cold pool.

Surface gusts of 20 to 30 kts can be expected across the
mountains Sunday, with 10-20 kts possible east of the Blue Ridge.
850 mb winds are progged to increase to 25 to 40 kts, and
gradually veer northwest to north.

Extended discussion...

On Monday, winds will start to decrease as the center of the
upper low continues to exit the region. Isolated showers and with
periodic sub-VFR conditions will still be possible, especially in
the east, related to this feature.

Monday night through Wednesday, expect mainly VFR conditions as
high pressure settles offshore with southwest flow in place.

By Thursday we should start to see some potential for shower and
thunderstorms to pop during the heating of the day mainly in the
mountains. Fog may start to become an issue by the mornings
midweek, in the typical areas like KLWB and KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WERT/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220124
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
924 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the North Carolina/Virginia coast will deepen
and move northeast through Sunday as a weaker low over the Ohio
Valley tracks southeast and dissipates. High pressure over the
central United States will move east Monday and Tuesday, then off
the East Coast on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 905 PM EDT Saturday...

Shallow convection continues to linger this evening along a
residual surface trough axis extending north from low pressure
over the Carolinas and ahead of shortwave energy rotating around
the upper low to the north. These showers also supported by
lingering surface based cape of 500-1k J/KG as seen off the latest
SPC analysis and 00z RNK raob. Most guidance still supports this
convection slowly winding down through midnight per loss of
heating and then diminishing further overnight under some brief
drying aloft between spokes of energy rotating through. Thus
keeping low likely pops going nw third for another couple of hours
and over the southeast where still have bands/clusters that the
HRRR hangs onto until just before midnight. Otherwise appears
coverage should decrease enough to lower pops to mainly slight
chances north/east, and low pops nw where will continue to have
upslope driven spotty coverage overnight.

Expect fog to be mostly patchy early on before winds pick up late
helping scour things out by daybreak mountains but perhaps lingering
east a bit longer where likely more widespread. Little change to
going temps with lows mostly 50s, except a few 40s west where the
onset of deeper cool advection will begin after midnight.


Previous discussion as OF 247 PM EDT Saturday...

Have showers and some thunderstorms across the area this afternoon.
Best instability lies across the mountains from Southern WV into the
NC foothills...but with more sunshine in the southeast expect some
stronger storms over the Piedmont of VA/NC mid to late afternoon.
Still seeing upper trough moving across the Ohio Valley this
afternoon. Overall, models favor a cutoff low developing across the
Mid Atlantic by overnight and will see this system impact us
tomorrow with more showers and isolated storms. Coverage will be
shotgun but based on upper level forcing, looks like more coverage
will be from the Alleghany Highlands, southeast to the Piedmont of
VA/NC. With cool pool aloft, any stronger cell could produce some
graupel/small hail

Looking at coverage this evening and overnight to subside but do not
foresee any completely ending, so keeping at least chance pops in
from the SW Virginia mountains north and east to the Shenandoah
Valley and Lynchburg with less coverage after late evening from the
NC foothills east. Areas of fog possible overnight though cloud
cover will impede good coverage. Lows tonight to range from the upper
40s west to mid 50s southeast.

Sunday will see a decent enough gradient with surface low off the
coast to provide a breezy day. Sunshine looks more likely across
Southern WV to the NC mountains with less from the Alleghanys to
Lynchburg and Charlotte Courthouse. Highs will still about 10
degrees below normal ranging from the lower 60s mountains, to near
70 NC foothills to Southside Virginia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...

A closed low is forecasted to move over the coastal piedmont of
Virginia and North Carolina Sunday night, then off Cape Hatteras
Monday evening. This low is then forecasted to track north to New
England on Tuesday. Since this low will remain inland, there is a
good chance for showers Sunday night into Monday, especially east of
the Blue Ridge. Also with a cold pool pivoting over the piedmont
Sunday evening into Monday afternoon, can not rule out an isolated
strong to severe storm with hail being the primary threat and wind a
secondary threat. Bulk of the stronger storms and heavy rain will
remain with the low and points east.

The chance for showers will remain in the area Monday night,
however, strong storm threat will decrease as the low jogs to the
east. As this low continues to move east, showers will taper off
from west to east with rain leaving the piedmont early Tuesday
morning. With the slower movement of this low and the track
remaining inland, PoPs have been increased and durations has been
stretched into Monday night, mainly across the piedmont.

While this low is in the vicinity, temperatures will remain cooler
than normal Monday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The sun
and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with high in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

The upper level low tracks northeast of the area and off the New
England coast Tuesday night. Behind this system high pressure and
upper level ridge will bring drier and warm weather to the region
starting Wednesday. Temperatures will warm and stay above normal
through Saturday. With the warmer weather comes a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Storms do not
look organized but pulse-like, tracking slowly from the southwest to
the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 PM EDT Saturday...

Bands/clusters of shra/tsra continue across much of the region
early this evening and expect most sites to have at least a shower
in the vicinity over the next couple of hours. Thus will keep
either a MVFR prevailing or tempo group in, or just a VCSH/VCTS
pending release coverage at this point and amend into the evening.

Some showers may linger until around midnight despite weakening
instability per latest HRRR. Appears low clouds and/or fog may
set up at times across most of the area espcly east of the Blue
Ridge where the wedge may flop back a bit. Expect these lower
conditions to linger overnight until a better pressure gradient
kicks in Sunday as low deepens off the east coast. Therefore
keeping in MVFR to IFR cigs most spots after the showers fade with
a variable range in VSBYS, but overall MVFR at times in fog
overnight.

Persistent upper low will drop south over the area Sunday with the
next round of shortwave energy producing the best coverage of
showers across the north and east during the day. Expecting a
faster improvement in conditions early Sunday as increasing
northwest winds kick in and low cigs/vsbys rise. However once
heating develops will see cigs fill back in with VFR cloud bases,
except likely MVFR at KBLF per upslope nw flow, and where any
afternoon showers redevelop under the upper cold pool.

Isolated to scattered showers will also occur, espcly across the
east Sunday into Sunday evening making for MVFR vsbys or worse at
times. Isolated thunder will also be possible along with patchy
sub-VFR vsbys overnight in fog where earlier rainfall occurred.

Surface gusts of 20 to 30 kts can be expected across the
mountains Sunday, with 10-20 kts possible east of the Blue Ridge.
850 mb winds are progged to increase to 25 to 35 kts, and gradually
veer northwest to north.

Extended discussion...

On Monday, winds will start to decrease as the center of the
upper low continues to exit the region. Isolated showers and with
periodic sub-VFR conditions will still be possible, especially in
the east, related to this feature.

Monday night through Wednesday, expect mainly VFR conditions as
high pressure settles offshore with southwest flow in place.

By Thursday we should start to see some potential for shower and
thunderstorms to pop during the heating of the day mainly in the
mountains. Fog may start to become an issue by the mornings
midweek, in the typical areas like KLWB and KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities