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000
FXUS61 KRNK 311009
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
509 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE
HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A LARGE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION...WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
FROM ILLINOIS TO PENNSYLVANIA...AND MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF I-70
FROM OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS MORNING IS THE SUBZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE
MAGNITUDES FROM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
RESPECTABLE WIND FLOW PASSING ACROSS THE RIDGE CRESTS...WARM
SPRINGS MOUNTAIN IN BATH COUNTY THE MOST NOTABLE WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS CONTINUE TO TEST 20 MPH. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...THIS IS YIELDING A WIND CHILL BETWEEN 5 AND 10 BELOW
ZERO. AS SUCH WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION WHICH TARGETS THE WV/VA HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING.

COLDEST OF THE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HAS ALREADY PASSED OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD NOW
BE WARMING...MODELS WARMING OUR M13 DEG C READING FROM YESTERDAY
EVENING TO NEAR M3 DEG C TODAY...ABOUT A 10 DEGREE CHANGE. THIS
SHOULD NET HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SPITE OF
STARTING OFF IN THE DEEP FREEZE THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS ON THE
OTHERHAND WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH READINGS REMAINING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND HELPING TO YIELD AFTN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE A SUNNY DAY WITH LITTLE OR
NO CLOUD COVER. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TODAY...SUBSIDENCE KEEPING US DRY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. AS WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...SOME INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO OCCUR IN THE FORM OF THIN CIRROSTRATUS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST
HINT OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LOOKING WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY GETTING
EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH RAIN FALLING
FROM KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS. MODELS INDICATE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY IS GOING TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PHASING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM AS IT HEADS
EAST BOUND ON SUNDAY. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH AND
RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

FOR OUR PART OF THE CONUS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SPARED THE
WINTRY BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CIRROSTRATUS THAT BEGINS TO
GRACE OUR WESTERN HORIZON THIS AFTERNOON WILL THICKEN THIS
EVENING... BECOMING OVERCAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE CLOUD BASES
LOWER...OUR AREA MAY GET TEASED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA IS SO
DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS IT MAY ALL BE VIRGA...THE PRECIP DRYING UP
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ARRIVING LATER SUNDAY AND
ONLY AFTER WE HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...
ALTHOUGH THE SUN WILL AID IN THE PROCESS. READINGS MOST AREAS SHOULD
REACH THE 30S...TESTING 40 ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
TONIGHTS FORECAST LOWS WILL BE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS WOULD SUGGEST WE DROP PRETTY FAST AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY COUNTER THIS DIURNAL DIP.
CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE T-MIN...MODELS HAVING TROUBLE
RESOLVING THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. LEWISBURG WV IS A GOOD EXAMPLE
WHERE THE MAVMOS SUGGESTS 15 DEGREES FOR A MINIMUM VERSUS THE
METMOS OF 27. OUR FORECASTS REFLECTS A MODEL BLEND...LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 20S...WITH THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
NIGHT...THEN LEVELING OFF AND POTENTIALLY RISING A DEGREE OR TWO
AS CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING WILL
TRAVEL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
CREATE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE LOW CENTER WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN
VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO PUSH
LOW CENTER AND TRACK ALONG A NORTHERN ROUTE. THE CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS LOW WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE IN WAKE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SUNDAY MORNING...THE WAA PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR
SLEET SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ISENTROPIC
LIFT MAY GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. FOR PTYPES LEANDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND TEMPERATURE
PROFILES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR
JUST BEFORE THE CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. USED A NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A DEFORMATION ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES TO THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES PROFILES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK
QPF...OVERALL SNOW TOTALS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS
FROM A COATING TO NEAR 3 INCHES IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS OF
GREENBRIER COUNTY MAY BE POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN
FALLING TEMPERATURES MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE REACH DURING THE MORNING
WITH VALUES FROM AROUND 30 IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS FOR OUR REGION. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLD WITH READINGS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL LOW. 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE -13C RANGE GREENBRIER COUNTY
TOWARD -6C ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BE IDEAL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE AMPLE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...LEADING TO LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT
BITTERLY COLD...AS IN SOME PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH 850MB TEMPS -20C
OR BETTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

WEDNESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY CLEAR ANSWERS FOR THIS EVENT EITHER. DISTINCT NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE EVIDENT WED...WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHI-MCI...REASONABLY CONSISTENT AMONG
BOTH MODELS. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...IS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM RACING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS BACK ALONG THE
TX COAST. THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH KEEPING IT ACROSS
GA/SC...THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT PLUNGES AN ARCTIC
HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...CLEARLY FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TRACKS THIS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SC/NC COAST AND GENERATES A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC. THE GFS HAS AN EQUIVALENT ARCTIC HIGH...BUT HOLDS IT BACK
NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ADVERTISED WITH THESE TWO
PATTERNS. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. HAVE TAKEN A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...AS OPPOSED TO ANY ONE MODEL. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...AND AGAIN ISSUES WITH P-TYPE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
AT THIS POINT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TODAY...PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15KTS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS ALREADY FESTERING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN IS FALLING FROM KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING EAST THROUGH MISSOURI INTO
THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY...THICKENING
INTO AN OVERCAST LAYER ABOVE 10KFT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUD BASES WILL THEN LOWER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 WHICH WOULD
PRIMARILY IMPACT KLWB AND POINTS NORTH. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
NOR CLOUD BASES BELOW VFR WILL BE PLACED IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR THE BLACKSBURG/ROANOKE SERVICE AREA ATTM. VFR WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER OUR LOCAL REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER SUNDAY AS THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG I-70 FROM
STL 12Z/7AM SUNDAY TO NEAR HGR BY 12Z/7AM MONDAY. NORTH OF THE
LOW...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
SINCE ALL OF OUR TERMINALS WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THIS
STORM...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A PERIOD OF IFR IS
STILL LIKELY AS THE CIGS DROP SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IMPACTS TO AIR TRAVEL WILL
LIKELY OCCUR FOR AIR TERMINALS OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...BUT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY TO OUR
SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE BIGGEST WEATHER
HAZARD FOR OUR AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...GUSTS 30-40KTS
OVER THE RIDGES.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WITH
VFR. NEXT SUB-VFR THREAT WILL BE THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311009
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
509 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE
HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A LARGE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION...WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
FROM ILLINOIS TO PENNSYLVANIA...AND MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF I-70
FROM OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS MORNING IS THE SUBZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE
MAGNITUDES FROM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
RESPECTABLE WIND FLOW PASSING ACROSS THE RIDGE CRESTS...WARM
SPRINGS MOUNTAIN IN BATH COUNTY THE MOST NOTABLE WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS CONTINUE TO TEST 20 MPH. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...THIS IS YIELDING A WIND CHILL BETWEEN 5 AND 10 BELOW
ZERO. AS SUCH WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION WHICH TARGETS THE WV/VA HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING.

COLDEST OF THE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HAS ALREADY PASSED OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD NOW
BE WARMING...MODELS WARMING OUR M13 DEG C READING FROM YESTERDAY
EVENING TO NEAR M3 DEG C TODAY...ABOUT A 10 DEGREE CHANGE. THIS
SHOULD NET HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SPITE OF
STARTING OFF IN THE DEEP FREEZE THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS ON THE
OTHERHAND WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH READINGS REMAINING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND HELPING TO YIELD AFTN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE A SUNNY DAY WITH LITTLE OR
NO CLOUD COVER. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TODAY...SUBSIDENCE KEEPING US DRY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. AS WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...SOME INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO OCCUR IN THE FORM OF THIN CIRROSTRATUS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST
HINT OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LOOKING WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY GETTING
EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH RAIN FALLING
FROM KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS. MODELS INDICATE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY IS GOING TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PHASING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM AS IT HEADS
EAST BOUND ON SUNDAY. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH AND
RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

FOR OUR PART OF THE CONUS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SPARED THE
WINTRY BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CIRROSTRATUS THAT BEGINS TO
GRACE OUR WESTERN HORIZON THIS AFTERNOON WILL THICKEN THIS
EVENING... BECOMING OVERCAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE CLOUD BASES
LOWER...OUR AREA MAY GET TEASED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA IS SO
DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS IT MAY ALL BE VIRGA...THE PRECIP DRYING UP
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ARRIVING LATER SUNDAY AND
ONLY AFTER WE HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...
ALTHOUGH THE SUN WILL AID IN THE PROCESS. READINGS MOST AREAS SHOULD
REACH THE 30S...TESTING 40 ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
TONIGHTS FORECAST LOWS WILL BE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS WOULD SUGGEST WE DROP PRETTY FAST AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY COUNTER THIS DIURNAL DIP.
CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE T-MIN...MODELS HAVING TROUBLE
RESOLVING THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. LEWISBURG WV IS A GOOD EXAMPLE
WHERE THE MAVMOS SUGGESTS 15 DEGREES FOR A MINIMUM VERSUS THE
METMOS OF 27. OUR FORECASTS REFLECTS A MODEL BLEND...LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 20S...WITH THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
NIGHT...THEN LEVELING OFF AND POTENTIALLY RISING A DEGREE OR TWO
AS CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING WILL
TRAVEL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
CREATE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE LOW CENTER WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN
VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO PUSH
LOW CENTER AND TRACK ALONG A NORTHERN ROUTE. THE CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS LOW WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE IN WAKE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SUNDAY MORNING...THE WAA PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR
SLEET SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ISENTROPIC
LIFT MAY GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. FOR PTYPES LEANDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND TEMPERATURE
PROFILES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR
JUST BEFORE THE CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. USED A NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A DEFORMATION ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES TO THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES PROFILES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK
QPF...OVERALL SNOW TOTALS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS
FROM A COATING TO NEAR 3 INCHES IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS OF
GREENBRIER COUNTY MAY BE POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN
FALLING TEMPERATURES MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE REACH DURING THE MORNING
WITH VALUES FROM AROUND 30 IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS FOR OUR REGION. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLD WITH READINGS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL LOW. 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE -13C RANGE GREENBRIER COUNTY
TOWARD -6C ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BE IDEAL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE AMPLE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...LEADING TO LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT
BITTERLY COLD...AS IN SOME PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH 850MB TEMPS -20C
OR BETTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

WEDNESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY CLEAR ANSWERS FOR THIS EVENT EITHER. DISTINCT NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE EVIDENT WED...WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHI-MCI...REASONABLY CONSISTENT AMONG
BOTH MODELS. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...IS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM RACING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS BACK ALONG THE
TX COAST. THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH KEEPING IT ACROSS
GA/SC...THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT PLUNGES AN ARCTIC
HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...CLEARLY FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TRACKS THIS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SC/NC COAST AND GENERATES A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC. THE GFS HAS AN EQUIVALENT ARCTIC HIGH...BUT HOLDS IT BACK
NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ADVERTISED WITH THESE TWO
PATTERNS. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. HAVE TAKEN A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...AS OPPOSED TO ANY ONE MODEL. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...AND AGAIN ISSUES WITH P-TYPE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
AT THIS POINT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TODAY...PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15KTS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS ALREADY FESTERING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN IS FALLING FROM KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING EAST THROUGH MISSOURI INTO
THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY...THICKENING
INTO AN OVERCAST LAYER ABOVE 10KFT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUD BASES WILL THEN LOWER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 WHICH WOULD
PRIMARILY IMPACT KLWB AND POINTS NORTH. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
NOR CLOUD BASES BELOW VFR WILL BE PLACED IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR THE BLACKSBURG/ROANOKE SERVICE AREA ATTM. VFR WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER OUR LOCAL REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER SUNDAY AS THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG I-70 FROM
STL 12Z/7AM SUNDAY TO NEAR HGR BY 12Z/7AM MONDAY. NORTH OF THE
LOW...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
SINCE ALL OF OUR TERMINALS WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THIS
STORM...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A PERIOD OF IFR IS
STILL LIKELY AS THE CIGS DROP SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IMPACTS TO AIR TRAVEL WILL
LIKELY OCCUR FOR AIR TERMINALS OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...BUT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY TO OUR
SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE BIGGEST WEATHER
HAZARD FOR OUR AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...GUSTS 30-40KTS
OVER THE RIDGES.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WITH
VFR. NEXT SUB-VFR THREAT WILL BE THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310445
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1145 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND ABOUT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EST FRIDAY...

WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS INTO GRAYSON HIGHLANDS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO UNDER
35 MPH OVERALL IN GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO SUBSIDE MORE. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLEAR WITH A FEW STRATOCU LINGERING IN THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY. WIND CHILLS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HIT THE -5 TO -10 F
THRESHOLD IN THE MTNS OF BATH AND GREENBRIER...SO NO CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVERNIGHT.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S EAST DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY UNDER DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS GIVEN 85H WARMING.
SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE FAST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/DRY AIR...WENT ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST ESPCLY EAST WHERE LOW/MID 40S LIKELY WHILE KEEPING THE
WEST MAINLY 30S TO AROUND 40 GIVEN THE 85H NW TRAJECTORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER KEEPING DRY AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
AIR COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON. THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

ALSO ON SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
ROCKIES SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. SHORT WAVES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WHILE DEW POINTS AND WET
BULB INCREASE INTO THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THIS DRY AIR IT MAY START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
SNOW/SLEET MIX...BUT WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A COLD RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH 85H TEMPERATURES 4C
OR WARMER. THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ENTER RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL DELAY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND BRIEF UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30F-35F RANGE IN
THE WEST TO A LATE MORNING MAX IN THE EAST IN THE M/U 40S. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGH WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ONLY THING
LACKING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE HIND WIND WATCH/WARNING IS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE ONLY DISPLAYING A 40KT JET OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL LOW. 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE -13C RANGE GREENBRIER COUNTY
TOWARD -6C ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BE IDEAL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE AMPLE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...LEADING TO LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT
BITTERLY COLD...AS IN SOME PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH 850MB TEMPS -20C
OR BETTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

WEDNESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY CLEAR ANSWERS FOR THIS EVENT EITHER. DISTINCT NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE EVIDENT WED...WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHI-MCI...REASONABLY CONSISTENT AMONG
BOTH MODELS. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...IS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM RACING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS BACK ALONG THE
TX COAST. THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH KEEPING IT ACROSS
GA/SC...THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT PLUNGES AN ARCTIC
HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...CLEARLY FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TRACKS THIS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SC/NC COAST AND GENERATES A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC. THE GFS HAS AN EQUIVALENT ARCTIC HIGH...BUT HOLDS IT BACK
NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ADVERTISED WITH THESE TWO
PATTERNS. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. HAVE TAKEN A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...AS OPPOSED TO ANY ONE MODEL. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...AND AGAIN ISSUES WITH P-TYPE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
AT THIS POINT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EST FRIDAY...

PRIMARILY WILL BE DEALING WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS IN
THE MTNS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS WEAKER WINDS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
SATURDAY...WITH MORE ALTOCU OR ALTOSTRATUS ARRIVING BY DUSK IN THE
WEST...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WX MAKER FOR SUNDAY.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/PM/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310445
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1145 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND ABOUT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EST FRIDAY...

WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS INTO GRAYSON HIGHLANDS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO UNDER
35 MPH OVERALL IN GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO SUBSIDE MORE. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLEAR WITH A FEW STRATOCU LINGERING IN THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY. WIND CHILLS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HIT THE -5 TO -10 F
THRESHOLD IN THE MTNS OF BATH AND GREENBRIER...SO NO CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVERNIGHT.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S EAST DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY UNDER DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS GIVEN 85H WARMING.
SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE FAST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/DRY AIR...WENT ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST ESPCLY EAST WHERE LOW/MID 40S LIKELY WHILE KEEPING THE
WEST MAINLY 30S TO AROUND 40 GIVEN THE 85H NW TRAJECTORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER KEEPING DRY AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
AIR COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON. THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

ALSO ON SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
ROCKIES SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. SHORT WAVES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WHILE DEW POINTS AND WET
BULB INCREASE INTO THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THIS DRY AIR IT MAY START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
SNOW/SLEET MIX...BUT WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A COLD RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH 85H TEMPERATURES 4C
OR WARMER. THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ENTER RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL DELAY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND BRIEF UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30F-35F RANGE IN
THE WEST TO A LATE MORNING MAX IN THE EAST IN THE M/U 40S. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGH WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ONLY THING
LACKING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE HIND WIND WATCH/WARNING IS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE ONLY DISPLAYING A 40KT JET OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL LOW. 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE -13C RANGE GREENBRIER COUNTY
TOWARD -6C ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BE IDEAL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE AMPLE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...LEADING TO LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT
BITTERLY COLD...AS IN SOME PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH 850MB TEMPS -20C
OR BETTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

WEDNESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY CLEAR ANSWERS FOR THIS EVENT EITHER. DISTINCT NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE EVIDENT WED...WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHI-MCI...REASONABLY CONSISTENT AMONG
BOTH MODELS. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...IS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM RACING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS BACK ALONG THE
TX COAST. THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH KEEPING IT ACROSS
GA/SC...THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT PLUNGES AN ARCTIC
HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...CLEARLY FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TRACKS THIS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SC/NC COAST AND GENERATES A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC. THE GFS HAS AN EQUIVALENT ARCTIC HIGH...BUT HOLDS IT BACK
NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ADVERTISED WITH THESE TWO
PATTERNS. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. HAVE TAKEN A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...AS OPPOSED TO ANY ONE MODEL. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...AND AGAIN ISSUES WITH P-TYPE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
AT THIS POINT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EST FRIDAY...

PRIMARILY WILL BE DEALING WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS IN
THE MTNS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS WEAKER WINDS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
SATURDAY...WITH MORE ALTOCU OR ALTOSTRATUS ARRIVING BY DUSK IN THE
WEST...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WX MAKER FOR SUNDAY.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/PM/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310241
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
941 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND ABOUT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST FRIDAY...

CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY EARLY FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LEAVING
THE NC MTNS/GRAYSON HIGHLANDS IN IT AS GUSTS TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS OF 45+ MPH STILL EXISTS AS OF 9 PM.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...JUST ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE TO PASS THROUGH
SHOULD END THE GUSTS OVER 35 MPH MOST PLACES...AND THINK WILL BE
ABLE TO CANCEL ADVISORY AN HOUR OR TWO EARLY IN THE NC MTNS.

AS FOR WIND CHILLS...FORECAST EARLIER EXPECTED TO STAY ON TRACK
PER UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. APPEARS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BATH/GREENBRIER WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS BELOW
-5...SOME OF THE RIDGES LIKE MT ROGERS...MOUNTAIN LAKE AND BEECH
MTN SHOULD ALSO DROP TO NEAR -5F...BUT THIS ONLY COVERS ISOLATED
PEAKS...SO NO ADVISORY EXPANSION.

STILL A FEW STRATOCU IN THE UPSLOPE OF SE WV...AND THE 00Z NAM
COMING IN DEPICTS THIS ERODING OVER WRN GREENBRIER BY 4 AM...THEN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRY TO MAKE INROADS TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S EAST DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY UNDER DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS GIVEN 85H WARMING.
SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE FAST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/DRY AIR...WENT ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST ESPCLY EAST WHERE LOW/MID 40S LIKELY WHILE KEEPING THE
WEST MAINLY 30S TO AROUND 40 GIVEN THE 85H NW TRAJECTORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER KEEPING DRY AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
AIR COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON. THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

ALSO ON SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
ROCKIES SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. SHORT WAVES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WHILE DEW POINTS AND WET
BULB INCREASE INTO THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THIS DRY AIR IT MAY START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
SNOW/SLEET MIX...BUT WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A COLD RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH 85H TEMPERATURES 4C
OR WARMER. THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ENTER RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL DELAY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND BRIEF UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30F-35F RANGE IN
THE WEST TO A LATE MORNING MAX IN THE EAST IN THE M/U 40S. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGH WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ONLY THING
LACKING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE HIND WIND WATCH/WARNING IS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE ONLY DISPLAYING A 40KT JET OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL LOW. 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE -13C RANGE GREENBRIER COUNTY
TOWARD -6C ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BE IDEAL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE AMPLE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...LEADING TO LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT
BITTERLY COLD...AS IN SOME PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH 850MB TEMPS -20C
OR BETTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

WEDNESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY CLEAR ANSWERS FOR THIS EVENT EITHER. DISTINCT NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE EVIDENT WED...WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHI-MCI...REASONABLY CONSISTENT AMONG
BOTH MODELS. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...IS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM RACING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS BACK ALONG THE
TX COAST. THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH KEEPING IT ACROSS
GA/SC...THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT PLUNGES AN ARCTIC
HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...CLEARLY FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TRACKS THIS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SC/NC COAST AND GENERATES A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC. THE GFS HAS AN EQUIVALENT ARCTIC HIGH...BUT HOLDS IT BACK
NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ADVERTISED WITH THESE TWO
PATTERNS. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. HAVE TAKEN A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...AS OPPOSED TO ANY ONE MODEL. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...AND AGAIN ISSUES WITH P-TYPE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
AT THIS POINT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CENTER MORE ON WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE MTNS OF WV
ERODING AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY...STAYING GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL POUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST SAT AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/PM/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310241
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
941 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND ABOUT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST FRIDAY...

CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY EARLY FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LEAVING
THE NC MTNS/GRAYSON HIGHLANDS IN IT AS GUSTS TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS OF 45+ MPH STILL EXISTS AS OF 9 PM.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...JUST ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE TO PASS THROUGH
SHOULD END THE GUSTS OVER 35 MPH MOST PLACES...AND THINK WILL BE
ABLE TO CANCEL ADVISORY AN HOUR OR TWO EARLY IN THE NC MTNS.

AS FOR WIND CHILLS...FORECAST EARLIER EXPECTED TO STAY ON TRACK
PER UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. APPEARS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BATH/GREENBRIER WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS BELOW
-5...SOME OF THE RIDGES LIKE MT ROGERS...MOUNTAIN LAKE AND BEECH
MTN SHOULD ALSO DROP TO NEAR -5F...BUT THIS ONLY COVERS ISOLATED
PEAKS...SO NO ADVISORY EXPANSION.

STILL A FEW STRATOCU IN THE UPSLOPE OF SE WV...AND THE 00Z NAM
COMING IN DEPICTS THIS ERODING OVER WRN GREENBRIER BY 4 AM...THEN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRY TO MAKE INROADS TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S EAST DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY UNDER DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS GIVEN 85H WARMING.
SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE FAST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/DRY AIR...WENT ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST ESPCLY EAST WHERE LOW/MID 40S LIKELY WHILE KEEPING THE
WEST MAINLY 30S TO AROUND 40 GIVEN THE 85H NW TRAJECTORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER KEEPING DRY AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
AIR COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON. THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

ALSO ON SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
ROCKIES SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX.
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. SHORT WAVES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WHILE DEW POINTS AND WET
BULB INCREASE INTO THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THIS DRY AIR IT MAY START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
SNOW/SLEET MIX...BUT WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A COLD RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH 85H TEMPERATURES 4C
OR WARMER. THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ENTER RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL DELAY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND BRIEF UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30F-35F RANGE IN
THE WEST TO A LATE MORNING MAX IN THE EAST IN THE M/U 40S. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGH WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ONLY THING
LACKING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE HIND WIND WATCH/WARNING IS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE ONLY DISPLAYING A 40KT JET OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL LOW. 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE -13C RANGE GREENBRIER COUNTY
TOWARD -6C ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BE IDEAL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE AMPLE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...LEADING TO LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT
BITTERLY COLD...AS IN SOME PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH 850MB TEMPS -20C
OR BETTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

WEDNESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY CLEAR ANSWERS FOR THIS EVENT EITHER. DISTINCT NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE EVIDENT WED...WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHI-MCI...REASONABLY CONSISTENT AMONG
BOTH MODELS. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...IS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM RACING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS BACK ALONG THE
TX COAST. THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH KEEPING IT ACROSS
GA/SC...THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT PLUNGES AN ARCTIC
HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...CLEARLY FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TRACKS THIS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SC/NC COAST AND GENERATES A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC. THE GFS HAS AN EQUIVALENT ARCTIC HIGH...BUT HOLDS IT BACK
NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ADVERTISED WITH THESE TWO
PATTERNS. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. HAVE TAKEN A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...AS OPPOSED TO ANY ONE MODEL. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...AND AGAIN ISSUES WITH P-TYPE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
AT THIS POINT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CENTER MORE ON WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE MTNS OF WV
ERODING AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY...STAYING GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL POUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST SAT AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/PM/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302341
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
641 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND ABOUT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM EST FRIDAY...

PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL TIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CORE OF LOW LVL HIGH WINDS ARE
OVERHEAD AND MOVING EAST. THE WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME OVER
THE AREA AND AS THE EVENING WEARS ON LOOKS LIKE NO SECOND SURGE IS
EXPECTED PER UPSTREAM TRENDS. MAY CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY
BUT WILL SEE IF WINDS BOOST UP AGAIN AS INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE NEXT HOUR.

JUST FEW WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR WESTERN GREENBRIER AND EXPECT THE
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO END AROUND LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 215 PM...
FINAL WAVE ALOFT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS
BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
NW EARLY ON ESPCLY GIVEN THE PASSING OF THE COLDEST AIR AT 85H AND
SOME GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE JET ALOFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES GIVEN LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO KEEPING SO LOW POPS OR FLURRY MENTION GOING NW
THIRD THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE APPEARS THE
STRONGEST OF THE SURFACE WINDS WILL EXIT AFTER DARK WITH PERHAPS A
SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE
SPEEDS DROP BELOW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER STILL GUSTY ON THE
RIDGES GIVEN THE SLOWNESS OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST AND THE
FORECAST REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF MOST MODELS. SHOULD FINALLY
SEE SKIES CLEAR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING AND ALL EXCEPT
THE FAR NW SLOPES LATE GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE OFF THE NAM. EXPECT
ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A
FEW SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST
DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING A FEW
AREAS INCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER AND BATH INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY UNDER DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS GIVEN 85H WARMING.
SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE FAST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/DRY AIR...WENT ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST ESPCLY EAST WHERE LOW/MID 40S LIKELY WHILE KEEPING THE
WEST MAINLY 30S TO AROUND 40 GIVEN THE 85H NW TRAJECTORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER KEEPING DRY AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
AIR COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON. THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

ALSO ON SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
ROCKIES SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS LOW
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SHORT
WAVES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WHILE DEW POINTS AND WET BULB INCREASE INTO
THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THIS DRY AIR
     IT MAY START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX...BUT WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A COLD RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH 85H TEMPERATURES 4C
OR WARMER. THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ENTER RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL DELAY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND BRIEF UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30F-35F RANGE IN
THE WEST TO A LATE MORNING MAX IN THE EAST IN THE M/U 40S. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGH WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ONLY THING
LACKING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE HIND WIND WATCH/WARNING IS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE ONLY DISPLAYING A 40KT JET OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL LOW. 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE -13C RANGE GREENBRIER COUNTY
TOWARD -6C ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BE IDEAL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE AMPLE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...LEADING TO LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT
BITTERLY COLD...AS IN SOME PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH 850MB TEMPS -20C
OR BETTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

WEDNESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY CLEAR ANSWERS FOR THIS EVENT EITHER. DISTINCT NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE EVIDENT WED...WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHI-MCI...REASONABLY CONSISTENT AMONG
BOTH MODELS. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...IS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM RACING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS BACK ALONG THE
TX COAST. THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH KEEPING IT ACROSS
GA/SC...THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT PLUNGES AN ARCTIC
HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...CLEARLY FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TRACKS THIS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SC/NC COAST AND GENERATES A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC. THE GFS HAS AN EQUIVALENT ARCTIC HIGH...BUT HOLDS IT BACK
NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ADVERTISED WITH THESE TWO
PATTERNS. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. HAVE TAKEN A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...AS OPPOSED TO ANY ONE MODEL. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...AND AGAIN ISSUES WITH P-TYPE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
AT THIS POINT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CENTER MORE ON WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE MTNS OF WV
ERODING AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY...STAYING GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL POUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST SAT AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/PM/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302341
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
641 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND ABOUT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM EST FRIDAY...

PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL TIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CORE OF LOW LVL HIGH WINDS ARE
OVERHEAD AND MOVING EAST. THE WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME OVER
THE AREA AND AS THE EVENING WEARS ON LOOKS LIKE NO SECOND SURGE IS
EXPECTED PER UPSTREAM TRENDS. MAY CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY
BUT WILL SEE IF WINDS BOOST UP AGAIN AS INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE NEXT HOUR.

JUST FEW WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR WESTERN GREENBRIER AND EXPECT THE
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO END AROUND LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 215 PM...
FINAL WAVE ALOFT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS
BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
NW EARLY ON ESPCLY GIVEN THE PASSING OF THE COLDEST AIR AT 85H AND
SOME GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE JET ALOFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES GIVEN LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO KEEPING SO LOW POPS OR FLURRY MENTION GOING NW
THIRD THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE APPEARS THE
STRONGEST OF THE SURFACE WINDS WILL EXIT AFTER DARK WITH PERHAPS A
SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE
SPEEDS DROP BELOW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER STILL GUSTY ON THE
RIDGES GIVEN THE SLOWNESS OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST AND THE
FORECAST REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF MOST MODELS. SHOULD FINALLY
SEE SKIES CLEAR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING AND ALL EXCEPT
THE FAR NW SLOPES LATE GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE OFF THE NAM. EXPECT
ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A
FEW SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST
DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING A FEW
AREAS INCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER AND BATH INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY UNDER DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS GIVEN 85H WARMING.
SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE FAST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/DRY AIR...WENT ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST ESPCLY EAST WHERE LOW/MID 40S LIKELY WHILE KEEPING THE
WEST MAINLY 30S TO AROUND 40 GIVEN THE 85H NW TRAJECTORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER KEEPING DRY AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
AIR COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON. THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

ALSO ON SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
ROCKIES SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS LOW
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SHORT
WAVES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WHILE DEW POINTS AND WET BULB INCREASE INTO
THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THIS DRY AIR
     IT MAY START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX...BUT WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A COLD RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH 85H TEMPERATURES 4C
OR WARMER. THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ENTER RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL DELAY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND BRIEF UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30F-35F RANGE IN
THE WEST TO A LATE MORNING MAX IN THE EAST IN THE M/U 40S. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGH WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ONLY THING
LACKING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE HIND WIND WATCH/WARNING IS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE ONLY DISPLAYING A 40KT JET OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL LOW. 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE -13C RANGE GREENBRIER COUNTY
TOWARD -6C ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BE IDEAL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE AMPLE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...LEADING TO LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT
BITTERLY COLD...AS IN SOME PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH 850MB TEMPS -20C
OR BETTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

WEDNESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY CLEAR ANSWERS FOR THIS EVENT EITHER. DISTINCT NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE EVIDENT WED...WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHI-MCI...REASONABLY CONSISTENT AMONG
BOTH MODELS. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...IS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM RACING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS BACK ALONG THE
TX COAST. THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH KEEPING IT ACROSS
GA/SC...THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT PLUNGES AN ARCTIC
HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...CLEARLY FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TRACKS THIS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SC/NC COAST AND GENERATES A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC. THE GFS HAS AN EQUIVALENT ARCTIC HIGH...BUT HOLDS IT BACK
NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ADVERTISED WITH THESE TWO
PATTERNS. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. HAVE TAKEN A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...AS OPPOSED TO ANY ONE MODEL. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...AND AGAIN ISSUES WITH P-TYPE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
AT THIS POINT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CENTER MORE ON WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE MTNS OF WV
ERODING AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY...STAYING GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL POUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST SAT AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/PM/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 302047
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
347 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND ABOUT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

FINAL WAVE ALOFT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS
BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
NW EARLY ON ESPCLY GIVEN THE PASSING OF THE COLDEST AIR AT 85H AND
SOME GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE JET ALOFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES GIVEN LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO KEEPING SO LOW POPS OR FLURRY MENTION GOING NW
THIRD THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE APPEARS THE
STRONGEST OF THE SURFACE WINDS WILL EXIT AFTER DARK WITH PERHAPS A
SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE
SPEEDS DROP BELOW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER STILL GUSTY ON THE
RIDGES GIVEN THE SLOWNESS OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST AND THE
FORECAST REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF MOST MODELS. SHOULD FINALLY
SEE SKIES CLEAR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING AND ALL EXCEPT
THE FAR NW SLOPES LATE GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE OFF THE NAM. EXPECT
ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A
FEW SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST
DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING A FEW
AREAS INCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER AND BATH INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY UNDER DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS GIVEN 85H WARMING.
SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE FAST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/DRY AIR...WENT ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST ESPCLY EAST WHERE LOW/MID 40S LIKELY WHILE KEEPING THE
WEST MAINLY 30S TO AROUND 40 GIVEN THE 85H NW TRAJECTORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER KEEPING DRY AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
AIR COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON. THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

ALSO ON SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
ROCKIES SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS LOW
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SHORT
WAVES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WHILE DEW POINTS AND WET BULB INCREASE INTO
THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THIS DRY AIR
     IT MAY START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX...BUT WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A COLD RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH 85H TEMPERATURES 4C
OR WARMER. THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ENTER RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL DELAY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND BRIEF UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30F-35F RANGE IN
THE WEST TO A LATE MORNING MAX IN THE EAST IN THE M/U 40S. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGH WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ONLY THING
LACKING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE HIND WIND WATCH/WARNING IS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE ONLY DISPLAYING A 40KT JET OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL LOW. 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE -13C RANGE GREENBRIER COUNTY
TOWARD -6C ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BE IDEAL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE AMPLE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...LEADING TO LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT
BITTERLY COLD...AS IN SOME PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH 850MB TEMPS -20C
OR BETTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

WEDNESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY CLEAR ANSWERS FOR THIS EVENT EITHER. DISTINCT NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE EVIDENT WED...WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHI-MCI...REASONABLY CONSISTENT AMONG
BOTH MODELS. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...IS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM RACING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS BACK ALONG THE
TX COAST. THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH KEEPING IT ACROSS
GA/SC...THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT PLUNGES AN ARCTIC
HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...CLEARLY FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TRACKS THIS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SC/NC COAST AND GENERATES A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC. THE GFS HAS AN EQUIVALENT ARCTIC HIGH...BUT HOLDS IT BACK
NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ADVERTISED WITH THESE TWO
PATTERNS. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. HAVE TAKEN A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...AS OPPOSED TO ANY ONE MODEL. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...AND AGAIN ISSUES WITH P-TYPE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
AT THIS POINT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT OVER THE
REGION... EXPECT 25-40KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. FLURRIES MAY DRIFT AS FAR
EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT OVERALL VFR WITH LATE AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WEST VA SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH MAINLY VFR REGION WIDE
FOR SATURDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302012
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
312 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND ABOUT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

FINAL WAVE ALOFT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS
BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
NW EARLY ON ESPCLY GIVEN THE PASSING OF THE COLDEST AIR AT 85H AND
SOME GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE JET ALOFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES GIVEN LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO KEEPING SO LOW POPS OR FLURRY MENTION GOING NW
THIRD THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE APPEARS THE
STRONGEST OF THE SURFACE WINDS WILL EXIT AFTER DARK WITH PERHAPS A
SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE
SPEEDS DROP BELOW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER STILL GUSTY ON THE
RIDGES GIVEN THE SLOWNESS OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST AND THE
FORECAST REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF MOST MODELS. SHOULD FINALLY
SEE SKIES CLEAR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING AND ALL EXCEPT
THE FAR NW SLOPES LATE GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE OFF THE NAM. EXPECT
ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A
FEW SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST
DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING A FEW
AREAS INCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER AND BATH INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY UNDER DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS GIVEN 85H WARMING.
SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE FAST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/DRY AIR...WENT ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST ESPCLY EAST WHERE LOW/MID 40S LIKELY WHILE KEEPING THE
WEST MAINLY 30S TO AROUND 40 GIVEN THE 85H NW TRAJECTORY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER KEEPING DRY AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
AIR COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON. THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

ALSO ON SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
ROCKIES SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS LOW
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SHORT
WAVES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WHILE DEW POINTS AND WET BULB INCREASE INTO
THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THIS DRY AIR
...IT MAY START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX...BUT WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A COLD RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH 85H TEMPERATURES 4C
OR WARMER. THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ENTER RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL DELAY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND BRIEF UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30F-35F RANGE IN
THE WEST TO A LATE MORNING MAX IN THE EAST IN THE M/U 40S. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGH WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ONLY THING
LACKING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE HIND WIND WATCH/WARNING IS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE ONLY DISPLAYING A 40KT JET OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT OVER THE
REGION... EXPECT 25-40KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. FLURRIES MAY DRIFT AS FAR
EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT OVERALL VFR WITH LATE AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WEST VA SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH MAINLY VFR REGION WIDE
FOR SATURDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 302012
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
312 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND ABOUT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

FINAL WAVE ALOFT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS
BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
NW EARLY ON ESPCLY GIVEN THE PASSING OF THE COLDEST AIR AT 85H AND
SOME GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE JET ALOFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES GIVEN LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO KEEPING SO LOW POPS OR FLURRY MENTION GOING NW
THIRD THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE APPEARS THE
STRONGEST OF THE SURFACE WINDS WILL EXIT AFTER DARK WITH PERHAPS A
SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE
SPEEDS DROP BELOW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER STILL GUSTY ON THE
RIDGES GIVEN THE SLOWNESS OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST AND THE
FORECAST REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF MOST MODELS. SHOULD FINALLY
SEE SKIES CLEAR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING AND ALL EXCEPT
THE FAR NW SLOPES LATE GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE OFF THE NAM. EXPECT
ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A
FEW SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST
DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING A FEW
AREAS INCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER AND BATH INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY UNDER DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS GIVEN 85H WARMING.
SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE FAST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/DRY AIR...WENT ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST ESPCLY EAST WHERE LOW/MID 40S LIKELY WHILE KEEPING THE
WEST MAINLY 30S TO AROUND 40 GIVEN THE 85H NW TRAJECTORY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER KEEPING DRY AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
AIR COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON. THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

ALSO ON SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
ROCKIES SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS LOW
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SHORT
WAVES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WHILE DEW POINTS AND WET BULB INCREASE INTO
THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THIS DRY AIR
...IT MAY START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX...BUT WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A COLD RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH 85H TEMPERATURES 4C
OR WARMER. THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ENTER RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL DELAY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND BRIEF UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30F-35F RANGE IN
THE WEST TO A LATE MORNING MAX IN THE EAST IN THE M/U 40S. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGH WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ONLY THING
LACKING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE HIND WIND WATCH/WARNING IS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE ONLY DISPLAYING A 40KT JET OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT OVER THE
REGION... EXPECT 25-40KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. FLURRIES MAY DRIFT AS FAR
EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT OVERALL VFR WITH LATE AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WEST VA SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH MAINLY VFR REGION WIDE
FOR SATURDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301716
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1216 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...

MORNING SOUNDING AT RNK SHOWING A GREAT SETUP FOR SNOW BANDS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO NEARLY 700 MB WITHIN A STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AIDED BY INSTABILITY...AND NW WINDS OF 30+ KNOTS THAT ARE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION. THIS HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITHIN BANDS OVER THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS
NOW CROSSING INTO SE WEST VA PER UPSTREAM AXIS OF SNOW NOW WEST OF
BLF. THINK THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MORE HEATING
WILL TURN BANDS INTO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE POCKETS OF SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT IN A DECREASING FASHION GIVEN
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. ALSO BEST JET AND CORE OF THE 850
MB COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PASSING BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TO PRECIP. STILL APPEARS ENOUGH LINGERING TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVER WESTERN GREENBRIER UNTIL 4 PM WHILE
COVERING ELSEWHERE WITH CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS GIVEN
MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO THE HEAVIER SNOW. THUS ALSO TWEAKED UP
POPS TO MORE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WEST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN
DECREASED TO MAINLY THE NW UPSLOPE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS STILL LOOK GOOD ALTHOUGH SEEING SOME HIGHER GUSTS RIDE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER PASSING SHORTWAVE ATTM AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER
SURGE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE FINAL WAVE AND DEEP MIXING. DID
BOOST SPEEDS UP A BIT MORE AND BUMPED TO NEAR ADVISORY EAST FOR A
WHILE BUT NOT PLANNING TO EXPAND THE GOING ADVISORY FOR NOW. MAY
SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN BANDS BUT THINK
THE COMBO OF A HIGH INVERSION LEVEL AND CLOUDS TO LIMIT SPEEDS SO
NO UPGRADE TO HEADLINES WEST. KEPT TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND DROPPING OUT EAST LATER AS SOME EARLY
HIGHS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE CYCLONE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS FRONT CROSSED OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TUMBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLDER AIR WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A FURTHER
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WV...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR PLACES LIKE
QUINWOOD/CRAWLEY WV (THEY HAD AN INCH OR TWO ON THE GROUND AS OF
4AM). 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH A DUSTING
IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS
THE BLUE RIDGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS/HIGH
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. STRONG MOMENTUM MIX DOWN ALOFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SOME HEALTHY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR 35 MPH GUSTS TO BE OBSERVED FOR
DANVILLE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL
TAKE A MORE SERIOUS NOSE DIVE TONIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE
LOWER 20S (POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF WINDS STAY UP SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE EAST...UPPER TEEN
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY. A NICE SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRAVEL EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH MAY HOLD THE KEY TO SUNDAY COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MORNING 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTS THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK
OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH FOR SUNDAY.

THE P-TYPE QUESTION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH SUNDAY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS
SNOW AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES
STRONGER...MORE WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA CHANGING SNOW OVER
TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW.  MOS TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
CONSISTENT FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS
LOCATED NEAR ANNAPOLIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL REALLY KICK IN. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HWO. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT OVER THE
REGION... EXPECT 25-40KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. FLURRIES MAY DRIFT AS FAR
EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT OVERALL VFR WITH LATE AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WEST VA SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH MAINLY VFR REGION WIDE
FOR SATURDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301716
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1216 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...

MORNING SOUNDING AT RNK SHOWING A GREAT SETUP FOR SNOW BANDS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO NEARLY 700 MB WITHIN A STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AIDED BY INSTABILITY...AND NW WINDS OF 30+ KNOTS THAT ARE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION. THIS HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITHIN BANDS OVER THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS
NOW CROSSING INTO SE WEST VA PER UPSTREAM AXIS OF SNOW NOW WEST OF
BLF. THINK THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MORE HEATING
WILL TURN BANDS INTO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE POCKETS OF SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT IN A DECREASING FASHION GIVEN
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. ALSO BEST JET AND CORE OF THE 850
MB COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PASSING BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TO PRECIP. STILL APPEARS ENOUGH LINGERING TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVER WESTERN GREENBRIER UNTIL 4 PM WHILE
COVERING ELSEWHERE WITH CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS GIVEN
MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO THE HEAVIER SNOW. THUS ALSO TWEAKED UP
POPS TO MORE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WEST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN
DECREASED TO MAINLY THE NW UPSLOPE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS STILL LOOK GOOD ALTHOUGH SEEING SOME HIGHER GUSTS RIDE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER PASSING SHORTWAVE ATTM AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER
SURGE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE FINAL WAVE AND DEEP MIXING. DID
BOOST SPEEDS UP A BIT MORE AND BUMPED TO NEAR ADVISORY EAST FOR A
WHILE BUT NOT PLANNING TO EXPAND THE GOING ADVISORY FOR NOW. MAY
SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN BANDS BUT THINK
THE COMBO OF A HIGH INVERSION LEVEL AND CLOUDS TO LIMIT SPEEDS SO
NO UPGRADE TO HEADLINES WEST. KEPT TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND DROPPING OUT EAST LATER AS SOME EARLY
HIGHS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE CYCLONE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS FRONT CROSSED OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TUMBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLDER AIR WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A FURTHER
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WV...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR PLACES LIKE
QUINWOOD/CRAWLEY WV (THEY HAD AN INCH OR TWO ON THE GROUND AS OF
4AM). 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH A DUSTING
IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS
THE BLUE RIDGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS/HIGH
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. STRONG MOMENTUM MIX DOWN ALOFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SOME HEALTHY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR 35 MPH GUSTS TO BE OBSERVED FOR
DANVILLE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL
TAKE A MORE SERIOUS NOSE DIVE TONIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE
LOWER 20S (POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF WINDS STAY UP SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE EAST...UPPER TEEN
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY. A NICE SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRAVEL EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH MAY HOLD THE KEY TO SUNDAY COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MORNING 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTS THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK
OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH FOR SUNDAY.

THE P-TYPE QUESTION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH SUNDAY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS
SNOW AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES
STRONGER...MORE WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA CHANGING SNOW OVER
TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW.  MOS TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
CONSISTENT FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS
LOCATED NEAR ANNAPOLIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL REALLY KICK IN. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HWO. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT OVER THE
REGION... EXPECT 25-40KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. FLURRIES MAY DRIFT AS FAR
EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT OVERALL VFR WITH LATE AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WEST VA SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH MAINLY VFR REGION WIDE
FOR SATURDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301453
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
953 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
NATION SUNDAY...AND REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...

MORNING SOUNDING AT RNK SHOWING A GREAT SETUP FOR SNOW BANDS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO NEARLY 700 MB WITHIN A STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AIDED BY INSTABILITY...AND NW WINDS OF 30+ KNOTS THAT ARE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION. THIS HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITHIN BANDS OVER THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS
NOW CROSSING INTO SE WEST VA PER UPSTREAM AXIS OF SNOW NOW WEST OF
BLF. THINK THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MORE HEATING
WILL TURN BANDS INTO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE POCKETS OF SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT IN A DECREASING FASHION GIVEN
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. ALSO BEST JET AND CORE OF THE 850
MB COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PASSING BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TO PRECIP. STILL APPEARS ENOUGH LINGERING TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVER WESTERN GREENBRIER UNTIL 4 PM WHILE
COVERING ELSEWHERE WITH CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS GIVEN
MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO THE HEAVIER SNOW. THUS ALSO TWEAKED UP
POPS TO MORE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WEST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN
DECREASED TO MAINLY THE NW UPSLOPE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS STILL LOOK GOOD ALTHOUGH SEEING SOME HIGHER GUSTS RIDE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER PASSING SHORTWAVE ATTM AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER
SURGE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE FINAL WAVE AND DEEP MIXING. DID
BOOST SPEEDS UP A BIT MORE AND BUMPED TO NEAR ADVISORY EAST FOR A
WHILE BUT NOT PLANNING TO EXPAND THE GOING ADVISORY FOR NOW. MAY
SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN BANDS BUT THINK
THE COMBO OF A HIGH INVERSION LEVEL AND CLOUDS TO LIMIT SPEEDS SO
NO UPGRADE TO HEADLINES WEST. KEPT TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND DROPPING OUT EAST LATER AS SOME EARLY
HIGHS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE CYCLONE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS FRONT CROSSED OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TUMBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLDER AIR WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A FURTHER
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WV...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR PLACES LIKE
QUINWOOD/CRAWLEY WV (THEY HAD AN INCH OR TWO ON THE GROUND AS OF
4AM). 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH A DUSTING
IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS
THE BLUE RIDGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS/HIGH
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. STRONG MOMENTUM MIX DOWN ALOFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SOME HEALTHY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR 35 MPH GUSTS TO BE OBSERVED FOR
DANVILLE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL
TAKE A MORE SERIOUS NOSE DIVE TONIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE
LOWER 20S (POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF WINDS STAY UP SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE EAST...UPPER TEEN
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY. A NICE SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRAVEL EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH MAY HOLD THE KEY TO SUNDAY COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MORNING 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTS THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK
OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH FOR SUNDAY.

THE P-TYPE QUESTION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH SUNDAY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS
SNOW AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES
STRONGER...MORE WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA CHANGING SNOW OVER
TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW.  MOS TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
CONSISTENT FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS
LOCATED NEAR ANNAPOLIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL REALLY KICK IN. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HWO. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ OVER THE REGION...
EXPECT 25-40KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DIMINISH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH MVFR LIKELY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING BLF/LWB/BCB. FLURRIES MAY DRIFT AS FAR
EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT GENERAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH MAINLY VFR REGION WIDE FOR
SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW
STATES WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME
FRAME. THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301453
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
953 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
NATION SUNDAY...AND REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...

MORNING SOUNDING AT RNK SHOWING A GREAT SETUP FOR SNOW BANDS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO NEARLY 700 MB WITHIN A STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AIDED BY INSTABILITY...AND NW WINDS OF 30+ KNOTS THAT ARE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION. THIS HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITHIN BANDS OVER THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS
NOW CROSSING INTO SE WEST VA PER UPSTREAM AXIS OF SNOW NOW WEST OF
BLF. THINK THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MORE HEATING
WILL TURN BANDS INTO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE POCKETS OF SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT IN A DECREASING FASHION GIVEN
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. ALSO BEST JET AND CORE OF THE 850
MB COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PASSING BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TO PRECIP. STILL APPEARS ENOUGH LINGERING TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVER WESTERN GREENBRIER UNTIL 4 PM WHILE
COVERING ELSEWHERE WITH CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS GIVEN
MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO THE HEAVIER SNOW. THUS ALSO TWEAKED UP
POPS TO MORE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WEST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN
DECREASED TO MAINLY THE NW UPSLOPE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS STILL LOOK GOOD ALTHOUGH SEEING SOME HIGHER GUSTS RIDE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER PASSING SHORTWAVE ATTM AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER
SURGE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE FINAL WAVE AND DEEP MIXING. DID
BOOST SPEEDS UP A BIT MORE AND BUMPED TO NEAR ADVISORY EAST FOR A
WHILE BUT NOT PLANNING TO EXPAND THE GOING ADVISORY FOR NOW. MAY
SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN BANDS BUT THINK
THE COMBO OF A HIGH INVERSION LEVEL AND CLOUDS TO LIMIT SPEEDS SO
NO UPGRADE TO HEADLINES WEST. KEPT TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND DROPPING OUT EAST LATER AS SOME EARLY
HIGHS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE CYCLONE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS FRONT CROSSED OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TUMBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLDER AIR WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A FURTHER
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WV...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR PLACES LIKE
QUINWOOD/CRAWLEY WV (THEY HAD AN INCH OR TWO ON THE GROUND AS OF
4AM). 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH A DUSTING
IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS
THE BLUE RIDGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS/HIGH
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. STRONG MOMENTUM MIX DOWN ALOFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SOME HEALTHY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR 35 MPH GUSTS TO BE OBSERVED FOR
DANVILLE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL
TAKE A MORE SERIOUS NOSE DIVE TONIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE
LOWER 20S (POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF WINDS STAY UP SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE EAST...UPPER TEEN
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY. A NICE SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRAVEL EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH MAY HOLD THE KEY TO SUNDAY COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MORNING 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTS THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK
OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH FOR SUNDAY.

THE P-TYPE QUESTION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH SUNDAY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS
SNOW AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES
STRONGER...MORE WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA CHANGING SNOW OVER
TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW.  MOS TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
CONSISTENT FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS
LOCATED NEAR ANNAPOLIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL REALLY KICK IN. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HWO. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ OVER THE REGION...
EXPECT 25-40KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DIMINISH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH MVFR LIKELY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING BLF/LWB/BCB. FLURRIES MAY DRIFT AS FAR
EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT GENERAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH MAINLY VFR REGION WIDE FOR
SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW
STATES WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME
FRAME. THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301251
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
NATION SUNDAY...AND REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE CYCLONE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS FRONT CROSSED OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TUMBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLDER AIR WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A FURTHER
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WV...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR PLACES LIKE
QUINWOOD/CRAWLEY WV (THEY HAD AN INCH OR TWO ON THE GROUND AS OF
4AM). 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH A DUSTING
IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS
THE BLUE RIDGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS/HIGH
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. STRONG MOMENTUM MIX DOWN ALOFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SOME HEALTHY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR 35 MPH GUSTS TO BE OBSERVED FOR
DANVILLE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL
TAKE A MORE SERIOUS NOSE DIVE TONIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE
LOWER 20S (POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF WINDS STAY UP SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE EAST...UPPER TEEN
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY. A NICE SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRAVEL EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH MAY HOLD THE KEY TO SUNDAY COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MORNING 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTS THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK
OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH FOR SUNDAY.

THE P-TYPE QUESTION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH SUNDAY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS
SNOW AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES
STRONGER...MORE WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA CHANGING SNOW OVER
TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW.  MOS TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
CONSISTENT FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS
LOCATED NEAR ANNAPOLIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL REALLY KICK IN. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HWO. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ OVER THE REGION...
EXPECT 25-40KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DIMINISH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH MVFR LIKELY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING BLF/LWB/BCB. FLURRIES MAY DRIFT AS FAR
EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT GENERAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH MAINLY VFR REGION WIDE FOR
SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW
STATES WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME
FRAME. THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301251
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
NATION SUNDAY...AND REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE CYCLONE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS FRONT CROSSED OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TUMBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLDER AIR WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A FURTHER
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WV...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR PLACES LIKE
QUINWOOD/CRAWLEY WV (THEY HAD AN INCH OR TWO ON THE GROUND AS OF
4AM). 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH A DUSTING
IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS
THE BLUE RIDGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS/HIGH
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. STRONG MOMENTUM MIX DOWN ALOFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SOME HEALTHY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR 35 MPH GUSTS TO BE OBSERVED FOR
DANVILLE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL
TAKE A MORE SERIOUS NOSE DIVE TONIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE
LOWER 20S (POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF WINDS STAY UP SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE EAST...UPPER TEEN
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY. A NICE SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRAVEL EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH MAY HOLD THE KEY TO SUNDAY COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MORNING 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTS THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK
OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH FOR SUNDAY.

THE P-TYPE QUESTION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH SUNDAY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS
SNOW AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES
STRONGER...MORE WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA CHANGING SNOW OVER
TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW.  MOS TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
CONSISTENT FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS
LOCATED NEAR ANNAPOLIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL REALLY KICK IN. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HWO. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ OVER THE REGION...
EXPECT 25-40KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DIMINISH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH MVFR LIKELY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING BLF/LWB/BCB. FLURRIES MAY DRIFT AS FAR
EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT GENERAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH MAINLY VFR REGION WIDE FOR
SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW
STATES WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME
FRAME. THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301045
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
545 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
NATION SUNDAY...AND REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE CYCLONE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS FRONT CROSSED OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TUMBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLDER AIR WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A FURTHER
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WV...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR PLACES LIKE
QUINWOOD/CRAWLEY WV (THEY HAD AN INCH OR TWO ON THE GROUND AS OF
4AM). 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH A DUSTING
IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS
THE BLUE RIDGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS/HIGH
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. STRONG MOMENTUM MIX DOWN ALOFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SOME HEALTHY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR 35 MPH GUSTS TO BE OBSERVED FOR
DANVILLE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL
TAKE A MORE SERIOUS NOSE DIVE TONIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE
LOWER 20S (POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF WINDS STAY UP SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE EAST...UPPER TEEN
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY. A NICE SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRAVEL EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH MAY HOLD THE KEY TO SUNDAY COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MORNING 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTS THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK
OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH FOR SUNDAY.

THE P-TYPE QUESTION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH SUNDAY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS
SNOW AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES
STRONGER...MORE WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA CHANGING SNOW OVER
TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW.  MOS TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
CONSISTENT FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS
LOCATED NEAR ANNAPOLIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL REALLY KICK IN. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HWO. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE STRONG ADVERTISED ALBERTA CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR...NEAR BCB AND
ALREADY THROUGH LWB/BLF. VERY QUICKLY CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR
RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED PCPN...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY LOW
END VFR CIGS AT THIS HOUR. MODELS NOW DEPICTING A WAVE THAT WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY DELAY ITS PROGRESS
INTO THE PIEDMONT AND FURTHERMORE BRING A WAVE OF -SHRA TO BCB/ROA
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED
THESE CHANGES TO THE TAFS...SLIGHTLY DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT INTO ROA/LYH/DAN AND ALSO INTRODUCING -SHRA TO BCB/ROA THAT
WERE NOT IN THE 00Z TAFS. UPSLOPE -SHSN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
ENHANCED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR VSBYS AND IFR-LIFR CIGS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT 14Z WITH JUST FLURRIES OR OCCASIONAL
-SHSN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND 22Z
BLF/LWB/BCB...BECOMING MOSTLY SKC OR JUST SCT ALL SITES AFT 22Z.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ OVER THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN THE ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH AND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
NORTHEAST U.S...30-40KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRI. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EVEN INTO FRI
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW 25KTS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFT 02Z.
WINDS OVERALL WILL AVERAGE 10KTS LESS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301045
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
545 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
NATION SUNDAY...AND REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE CYCLONE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS FRONT CROSSED OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TUMBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLDER AIR WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A FURTHER
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WV...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR PLACES LIKE
QUINWOOD/CRAWLEY WV (THEY HAD AN INCH OR TWO ON THE GROUND AS OF
4AM). 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH A DUSTING
IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS
THE BLUE RIDGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS/HIGH
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. STRONG MOMENTUM MIX DOWN ALOFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SOME HEALTHY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR 35 MPH GUSTS TO BE OBSERVED FOR
DANVILLE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL
TAKE A MORE SERIOUS NOSE DIVE TONIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE
LOWER 20S (POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF WINDS STAY UP SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE EAST...UPPER TEEN
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY. A NICE SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRAVEL EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH MAY HOLD THE KEY TO SUNDAY COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MORNING 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTS THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK
OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH FOR SUNDAY.

THE P-TYPE QUESTION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH SUNDAY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS
SNOW AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES
STRONGER...MORE WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA CHANGING SNOW OVER
TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW.  MOS TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
CONSISTENT FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS
LOCATED NEAR ANNAPOLIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL REALLY KICK IN. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HWO. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE STRONG ADVERTISED ALBERTA CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR...NEAR BCB AND
ALREADY THROUGH LWB/BLF. VERY QUICKLY CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR
RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED PCPN...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY LOW
END VFR CIGS AT THIS HOUR. MODELS NOW DEPICTING A WAVE THAT WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY DELAY ITS PROGRESS
INTO THE PIEDMONT AND FURTHERMORE BRING A WAVE OF -SHRA TO BCB/ROA
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED
THESE CHANGES TO THE TAFS...SLIGHTLY DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT INTO ROA/LYH/DAN AND ALSO INTRODUCING -SHRA TO BCB/ROA THAT
WERE NOT IN THE 00Z TAFS. UPSLOPE -SHSN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
ENHANCED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR VSBYS AND IFR-LIFR CIGS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT 14Z WITH JUST FLURRIES OR OCCASIONAL
-SHSN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND 22Z
BLF/LWB/BCB...BECOMING MOSTLY SKC OR JUST SCT ALL SITES AFT 22Z.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ OVER THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN THE ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH AND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
NORTHEAST U.S...30-40KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRI. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EVEN INTO FRI
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW 25KTS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFT 02Z.
WINDS OVERALL WILL AVERAGE 10KTS LESS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300528
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1228 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1124 PM EST THURSDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. SFC TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS REACH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. KFCX 88D SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES LATER
TONIGHT. INITIALLY EXPECTED SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUES FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS OF 715 PM EST THURSDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ALL OF THE ACTION YET TO COME A
LITTLE BIT LATER THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE WINDS HAVE COME
AROUND TO NW AND RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT WE WILL FALL
ABOUT 10F BELOW CURRENT VALUES FOR LOWS OF LOWER 30S EAST OF THE
RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 20S WEST.

THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
AROUND 9PM AND START TO KICK OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. CURRENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON MESO MODELS WITH 2
TO 4 INCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THE NC MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR AROUND 2 INCHES.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE TAME BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND REALLY START TO BLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WIND ADVISORIES START TO GO INTO EFFECT. GUSTS
OF 50 MPH TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE
GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AND 40 MPH TO 50 MPH GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.

PREVIOUS AFD...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED WESTERN PARTS OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.

THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE STRONG ADVERTISED ALBERTA CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR...NEAR BCB AND
ALREADY THROUGH LWB/BLF. VERY QUICKLY CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR
RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED PCPN...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY LOW
END VFR CIGS AT THIS HOUR. MODELS NOW DEPICTING A WAVE THAT WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY DELAY ITS PROGRESS
INTO THE PIEDMONT AND FURTHERMORE BRING A WAVE OF -SHRA TO BCB/ROA
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED
THESE CHANGES TO THE TAFS...SLIGHTLY DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT INTO ROA/LYH/DAN AND ALSO INTRODUCING -SHRA TO BCB/ROA THAT
WERE NOT IN THE 00Z TAFS. UPSLOPE -SHSN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
ENHANCED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR VSBYS AND IFR-LIFR CIGS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT 14Z WITH JUST FLURRIES OR OCCASIONAL
-SHSN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND 22Z
BLF/LWB/BCB...BECOMING MOSTLY SKC OR JUST SCT ALL SITES AFT 22Z.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ OVER THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN THE ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH AND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
NORTHEAST U.S...30-40KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRI. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EVEN INTO FRI
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW 25KTS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFT 02Z.
WINDS OVERALL WILL AVERAGE 10KTS LESS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300528
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1228 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1124 PM EST THURSDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. SFC TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS REACH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. KFCX 88D SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES LATER
TONIGHT. INITIALLY EXPECTED SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUES FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS OF 715 PM EST THURSDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ALL OF THE ACTION YET TO COME A
LITTLE BIT LATER THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE WINDS HAVE COME
AROUND TO NW AND RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT WE WILL FALL
ABOUT 10F BELOW CURRENT VALUES FOR LOWS OF LOWER 30S EAST OF THE
RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 20S WEST.

THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
AROUND 9PM AND START TO KICK OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. CURRENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON MESO MODELS WITH 2
TO 4 INCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THE NC MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR AROUND 2 INCHES.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE TAME BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND REALLY START TO BLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WIND ADVISORIES START TO GO INTO EFFECT. GUSTS
OF 50 MPH TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE
GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AND 40 MPH TO 50 MPH GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.

PREVIOUS AFD...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED WESTERN PARTS OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.

THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE STRONG ADVERTISED ALBERTA CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR...NEAR BCB AND
ALREADY THROUGH LWB/BLF. VERY QUICKLY CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR
RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED PCPN...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY LOW
END VFR CIGS AT THIS HOUR. MODELS NOW DEPICTING A WAVE THAT WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY DELAY ITS PROGRESS
INTO THE PIEDMONT AND FURTHERMORE BRING A WAVE OF -SHRA TO BCB/ROA
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED
THESE CHANGES TO THE TAFS...SLIGHTLY DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT INTO ROA/LYH/DAN AND ALSO INTRODUCING -SHRA TO BCB/ROA THAT
WERE NOT IN THE 00Z TAFS. UPSLOPE -SHSN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
ENHANCED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR VSBYS AND IFR-LIFR CIGS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT 14Z WITH JUST FLURRIES OR OCCASIONAL
-SHSN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND 22Z
BLF/LWB/BCB...BECOMING MOSTLY SKC OR JUST SCT ALL SITES AFT 22Z.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ OVER THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN THE ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH AND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
NORTHEAST U.S...30-40KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRI. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EVEN INTO FRI
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW 25KTS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFT 02Z.
WINDS OVERALL WILL AVERAGE 10KTS LESS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300424
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1124 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1124 PM EST THURSDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. SFC TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS REACH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. KFCX 88D SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES LATER
TONIGHT. INITIALLY EXPECTED SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUES FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS OF 715 PM EST THURSDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ALL OF THE ACTION YET TO COME A
LITTLE BIT LATER THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE WINDS HAVE COME
AROUND TO NW AND RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT WE WILL FALL
ABOUT 10F BELOW CURRENT VALUES FOR LOWS OF LOWER 30S EAST OF THE
RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 20S WEST.

THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
AROUND 9PM AND START TO KICK OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. CURRENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON MESO MODELS WITH 2
TO 4 INCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THE NC MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR AROUND 2 INCHES.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE TAME BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND REALLY START TO BLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WIND ADVISORIES START TO GO INTO EFFECT. GUSTS
OF 50 MPH TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE
GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AND 40 MPH TO 50 MPH GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.

PREVIOUS AFD...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED WESTERN PARTS OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.

THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE CWA REMAINS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. THE SLEET BAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL NOT LONGER BE AN ISSUE. UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES...GENERALLY 04Z BLF/LWB TO 08Z DAN...EXPECT MOSTLY BKN-OVC
LOW END MVFR CIGS IN THE 035-060 RANGE WEST TO EAST AND VFR VSBYS.
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH -SHSN
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. BLF/LWB COULD
AT TIMES SEE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN THESE -SHSN ROUGHLY IN THE
08Z-14Z TIME FRAME...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOR BCB...SOME -SHSN ARE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT EXPECTING VSBYS TO BE REDUCED THERE. EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...SCT-BKN LOW END VFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS FOR ROA...BUT OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME SCT TO
SKC/VFR BY MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WINDS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY...STILL EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED OF 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 30-35KTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOR AREAS TO THE EAST...EXPECT WNW WINDS OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 04Z WEST TO 08Z EAST...BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL COME IN THE 14Z-20Z TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS AT SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10KTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300424
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1124 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1124 PM EST THURSDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. SFC TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS REACH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. KFCX 88D SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES LATER
TONIGHT. INITIALLY EXPECTED SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUES FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS OF 715 PM EST THURSDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ALL OF THE ACTION YET TO COME A
LITTLE BIT LATER THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE WINDS HAVE COME
AROUND TO NW AND RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT WE WILL FALL
ABOUT 10F BELOW CURRENT VALUES FOR LOWS OF LOWER 30S EAST OF THE
RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 20S WEST.

THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
AROUND 9PM AND START TO KICK OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. CURRENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON MESO MODELS WITH 2
TO 4 INCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THE NC MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR AROUND 2 INCHES.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE TAME BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND REALLY START TO BLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WIND ADVISORIES START TO GO INTO EFFECT. GUSTS
OF 50 MPH TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE
GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AND 40 MPH TO 50 MPH GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.

PREVIOUS AFD...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED WESTERN PARTS OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.

THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE CWA REMAINS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. THE SLEET BAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL NOT LONGER BE AN ISSUE. UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES...GENERALLY 04Z BLF/LWB TO 08Z DAN...EXPECT MOSTLY BKN-OVC
LOW END MVFR CIGS IN THE 035-060 RANGE WEST TO EAST AND VFR VSBYS.
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH -SHSN
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. BLF/LWB COULD
AT TIMES SEE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN THESE -SHSN ROUGHLY IN THE
08Z-14Z TIME FRAME...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOR BCB...SOME -SHSN ARE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT EXPECTING VSBYS TO BE REDUCED THERE. EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...SCT-BKN LOW END VFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS FOR ROA...BUT OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME SCT TO
SKC/VFR BY MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WINDS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY...STILL EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED OF 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 30-35KTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOR AREAS TO THE EAST...EXPECT WNW WINDS OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 04Z WEST TO 08Z EAST...BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL COME IN THE 14Z-20Z TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS AT SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10KTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300018
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EST THURSDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ALL OF THE ACTION YET TO COME A
LITTLE BIT LATER THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE WINDS HAVE COME
AROUND TO NW AND RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT WE WILL FALL
ABOUT 10F BELOW CURRENT VALUES FOR LOWS OF LOWER 30S EAST OF THE
RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 20S WEST.

THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
AROUND 9PM AND START TO KICK OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. CURRENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON MESO MODELS WITH 2
TO 4 INCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THE NC MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR AROUND 2 INCHES.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE TAME BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND REALLY START TO BLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WIND ADVISORIES START TO GO INTO EFFECT. GUSTS
OF 50 MPH TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE
GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AND 40 MPH TO 50 MPH GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.

PREVIOUS AFD...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED WESTERN PARTS OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.

THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE CWA REMAINS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. THE SLEET BAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL NOT LONGER BE AN ISSUE. UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES...GENERALLY 04Z BLF/LWB TO 08Z DAN...EXPECT MOSTLY BKN-OVC
LOW END MVFR CIGS IN THE 035-060 RANGE WEST TO EAST AND VFR VSBYS.
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH -SHSN
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. BLF/LWB COULD
AT TIMES SEE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN THESE -SHSN ROUGHLY IN THE
08Z-14Z TIME FRAME...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOR BCB...SOME -SHSN ARE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT EXPECTING VSBYS TO BE REDUCED THERE. EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...SCT-BKN LOW END VFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS FOR ROA...BUT OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME SCT TO
SKC/VFR BY MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WINDS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY...STILL EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED OF 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 30-35KTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOR AREAS TO THE EAST...EXPECT WNW WINDS OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 04Z WEST TO 08Z EAST...BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL COME IN THE 14Z-20Z TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS AT SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10KTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...MBS/DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300018
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EST THURSDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ALL OF THE ACTION YET TO COME A
LITTLE BIT LATER THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE WINDS HAVE COME
AROUND TO NW AND RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT WE WILL FALL
ABOUT 10F BELOW CURRENT VALUES FOR LOWS OF LOWER 30S EAST OF THE
RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 20S WEST.

THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
AROUND 9PM AND START TO KICK OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. CURRENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON MESO MODELS WITH 2
TO 4 INCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THE NC MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR AROUND 2 INCHES.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE TAME BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND REALLY START TO BLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WIND ADVISORIES START TO GO INTO EFFECT. GUSTS
OF 50 MPH TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE
GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AND 40 MPH TO 50 MPH GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.

PREVIOUS AFD...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED WESTERN PARTS OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.

THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE CWA REMAINS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. THE SLEET BAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL NOT LONGER BE AN ISSUE. UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES...GENERALLY 04Z BLF/LWB TO 08Z DAN...EXPECT MOSTLY BKN-OVC
LOW END MVFR CIGS IN THE 035-060 RANGE WEST TO EAST AND VFR VSBYS.
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH -SHSN
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. BLF/LWB COULD
AT TIMES SEE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN THESE -SHSN ROUGHLY IN THE
08Z-14Z TIME FRAME...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOR BCB...SOME -SHSN ARE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT EXPECTING VSBYS TO BE REDUCED THERE. EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...SCT-BKN LOW END VFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS FOR ROA...BUT OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME SCT TO
SKC/VFR BY MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WINDS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY...STILL EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED OF 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 30-35KTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOR AREAS TO THE EAST...EXPECT WNW WINDS OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 04Z WEST TO 08Z EAST...BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL COME IN THE 14Z-20Z TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS AT SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10KTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...MBS/DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292358
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
658 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

AREA OF LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND
EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. A BIT OF A CLEAR SLOT IS MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THEN THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. BEHIND IT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AN THE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS
EVENING. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR
PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED
WESTERN PARTS OF GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE
ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.

THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE CWA REMAINS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. THE SLEET BAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL NOT LONGER BE AN ISSUE. UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES...GENERALLY 04Z BLF/LWB TO 08Z DAN...EXPECT MOSTLY BKN-OVC
LOW END MVFR CIGS IN THE 035-060 RANGE WEST TO EAST AND VFR VSBYS.
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH -SHSN
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. BLF/LWB COULD
AT TIMES SEE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN THESE -SHSN ROUGHLY IN THE
08Z-14Z TIME FRAME...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOR BCB...SOME -SHSN ARE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT EXPECTING VSBYS TO BE REDUCED THERE. EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...SCT-BKN LOW END VFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS FOR ROA...BUT OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME SCT TO
SKC/VFR BY MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WINDS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY...STILL EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED OF 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 30-35KTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOR AREAS TO THE EAST...EXPECT WNW WINDS OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 04Z WEST TO 08Z EAST...BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL COME IN THE 14Z-20Z TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS AT SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10KTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 292358
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
658 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

AREA OF LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND
EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. A BIT OF A CLEAR SLOT IS MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THEN THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. BEHIND IT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AN THE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS
EVENING. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR
PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED
WESTERN PARTS OF GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE
ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.

THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE CWA REMAINS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. THE SLEET BAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL NOT LONGER BE AN ISSUE. UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES...GENERALLY 04Z BLF/LWB TO 08Z DAN...EXPECT MOSTLY BKN-OVC
LOW END MVFR CIGS IN THE 035-060 RANGE WEST TO EAST AND VFR VSBYS.
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH -SHSN
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. BLF/LWB COULD
AT TIMES SEE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN THESE -SHSN ROUGHLY IN THE
08Z-14Z TIME FRAME...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOR BCB...SOME -SHSN ARE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT EXPECTING VSBYS TO BE REDUCED THERE. EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...SCT-BKN LOW END VFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS FOR ROA...BUT OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME SCT TO
SKC/VFR BY MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WINDS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY...STILL EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED OF 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 30-35KTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOR AREAS TO THE EAST...EXPECT WNW WINDS OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 04Z WEST TO 08Z EAST...BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL COME IN THE 14Z-20Z TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS AT SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10KTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292059
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
359 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

AREA OF LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND
EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. A BIT OF A CLEAR SLOT IS MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THEN THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. BEHIND IT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AN THE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS
EVENING. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR
PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED
WESTERN PARTS OF GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE
ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.

THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY THAT IS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SLEET. SOME ISOLATED...AND TEMPORARY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SURFACE WILL WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AS
50KTS AT 850 MB IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE GUSTS
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO BE AROUND 40 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG NW WINDS...AFTER WHICH LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
VFR EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVERHEAD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292059
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
359 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

AREA OF LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND
EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. A BIT OF A CLEAR SLOT IS MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THEN THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. BEHIND IT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AN THE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW MACHINE WILL INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS
EVENING. OUR LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS DO NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM OUR
PRIOR FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN THE TWO TO FOUR RANGE. HAVE INCREASED
WESTERN PARTS OF GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA COUNTIES INTO THE
ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 30 TO
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT...FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GRAYSON...ASHE...AND WATAUGA MAY BE APPROACH GUSTS WITH SPEEDS AT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
JUST SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO AN EXPECTED BRIEF
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING
THE DAY...BUT LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY OF THESE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO
DECOUPLE WHILE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MORNING LOWS WITHOUT THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 5F TO 15F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF MIXING CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE
EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL PUSH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
THROW ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP
A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE
WILL TRACK IN ZONAL FLOW AND INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.

THE TOUGH QUESTION NOW DEALS WITH P-TYPE. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING
HIGH...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW FREEZING (NAM)...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A
COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE
WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA (GFS) CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. BEING RIGHT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
LIMITED DENDRITE GROWTH NOT SUPPORTING STAYING ALL SNOW...WE WILL
LEAN TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WEDGE
LINGERING IN THE REGION...THEREFORE HIGHLY CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW...NOT A MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET
AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE
EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS
A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS
US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN
LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
DRIER GFS/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY THAT IS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SLEET. SOME ISOLATED...AND TEMPORARY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SURFACE WILL WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AS
50KTS AT 850 MB IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE GUSTS
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO BE AROUND 40 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG NW WINDS...AFTER WHICH LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
VFR EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVERHEAD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291822
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE
FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EST THURSDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE THE REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT MAY
RECEIVE SOME SLEET THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDE A GREATER PERCENTAGE OF
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA THAN THE EARLIER UPDATE
INCLUDED. HAVE ALSO SPED THE RATE AT WHICH THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CROSS THE AREA. STILL ANTICIPATING THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 1010 AM EST THURSDAY...

BIGGEST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING IS A ADJUSTMENT TO THE
TIMING AND EXPANSE OF CURRENT LINE OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING
THE AREA. HAVE WEIGHTED VERY HIGHLY THE 13Z/8AM RUN OF THE RNK
WRF-ARW FOR THE ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SOLUTIONS HAS IT REACHING
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY SHORTLY AFTERNOON...WITH IT COVERAGE
QUICKLY ERODING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BY 22Z/3PM.

HAVE INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF SLEET THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION BASED UPON THE LATEST TOP DOWN METHOD
INCORPORATING A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z NAM. GIVEN THE SPEED
OF THE BAND AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE IF
ANY MEASURABLE SLEET IS EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE GAP IN
TIME OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE DISSIPATE OF THIS AFTERNOON/S
PRECIPITATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT BAND THIS EVENING.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

ANOTHER COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THIS MORNING. A FEW
LOCATIONS DIPPED INTO THE TEENS DURING THE NIGHT BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER HAS PUT A HALT TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. IN SPITE OF
THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TODAY...WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. THIS
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY...REACHING BUFFALO
NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE LOW
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE OBS INDICATE MOST OF THIS PRECIP TO BE LIGHT RAIN
OR VIRGA YIELDING TRACE AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 2 HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH /0.02/. THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING...CROSSING OHIO/KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.

MODELS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z/1PM TODAY...THEN DRY UP AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO POPS CONFINING THE HIGHEST POPS
AND BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ANYTHING MAKES IT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS P-TYPE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW... SO WILL GO WITH
MAINLY RAIN OR SPRINKLES. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SO DRY AND
THE WETBULB WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SLEET
MIXING IN AT THE ONSET. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SLEET WOULD BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL
BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES.  ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL THEN CHANGE
BACK OVER TO SNOW.  MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CWA
WHERE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...YIELDING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WV
HIGHLANDS... WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
AN INCH OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM BLUEFIELD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY...BUT AGAIN...FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRYING...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS FAR EAST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH ACROSS THE RIDGES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINDY AND COLD IS ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSH OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF
WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
SECOND RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF MUCH COLDER 850MB AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY
WITH A PUNCH.  ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET
COMES AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY...THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH
TIMING BEING THE THIRD AND FOURTH PERIODS...THIS WIND THREAT WILL
REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS COORDINATED WITH
WBC AND GSP.

WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. INCREASED
POPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLEARING EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY. THE REMAINING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY ERODES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE SPREAD EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE...DECIDE TO HOLD BACK LIGHT POPS TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT OUR CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE
WINTRY MIXTURE AT THE START THEN EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN
BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW INTO MONDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CENTER AND ITS TRACK WHETHER SOUTH OR WEST OF US HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR FORECAST WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE
NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A /MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING
TO GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY THAT IS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SLEET. SOME ISOLATED...AND TEMPORARY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SURFACE WILL WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AS
50KTS AT 850 MB IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE GUSTS
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO BE AROUND 40 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG NW WINDS...AFTER WHICH LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
VFR EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVERHEAD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291822
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE
FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EST THURSDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE THE REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT MAY
RECEIVE SOME SLEET THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDE A GREATER PERCENTAGE OF
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA THAN THE EARLIER UPDATE
INCLUDED. HAVE ALSO SPED THE RATE AT WHICH THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CROSS THE AREA. STILL ANTICIPATING THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 1010 AM EST THURSDAY...

BIGGEST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING IS A ADJUSTMENT TO THE
TIMING AND EXPANSE OF CURRENT LINE OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING
THE AREA. HAVE WEIGHTED VERY HIGHLY THE 13Z/8AM RUN OF THE RNK
WRF-ARW FOR THE ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SOLUTIONS HAS IT REACHING
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY SHORTLY AFTERNOON...WITH IT COVERAGE
QUICKLY ERODING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BY 22Z/3PM.

HAVE INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF SLEET THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION BASED UPON THE LATEST TOP DOWN METHOD
INCORPORATING A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z NAM. GIVEN THE SPEED
OF THE BAND AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE IF
ANY MEASURABLE SLEET IS EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE GAP IN
TIME OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE DISSIPATE OF THIS AFTERNOON/S
PRECIPITATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT BAND THIS EVENING.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

ANOTHER COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THIS MORNING. A FEW
LOCATIONS DIPPED INTO THE TEENS DURING THE NIGHT BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER HAS PUT A HALT TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. IN SPITE OF
THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TODAY...WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. THIS
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY...REACHING BUFFALO
NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE LOW
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE OBS INDICATE MOST OF THIS PRECIP TO BE LIGHT RAIN
OR VIRGA YIELDING TRACE AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 2 HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH /0.02/. THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING...CROSSING OHIO/KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.

MODELS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z/1PM TODAY...THEN DRY UP AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO POPS CONFINING THE HIGHEST POPS
AND BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ANYTHING MAKES IT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS P-TYPE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW... SO WILL GO WITH
MAINLY RAIN OR SPRINKLES. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SO DRY AND
THE WETBULB WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SLEET
MIXING IN AT THE ONSET. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SLEET WOULD BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL
BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES.  ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL THEN CHANGE
BACK OVER TO SNOW.  MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CWA
WHERE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...YIELDING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WV
HIGHLANDS... WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
AN INCH OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM BLUEFIELD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY...BUT AGAIN...FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRYING...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS FAR EAST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH ACROSS THE RIDGES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINDY AND COLD IS ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSH OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF
WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
SECOND RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF MUCH COLDER 850MB AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY
WITH A PUNCH.  ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET
COMES AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY...THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH
TIMING BEING THE THIRD AND FOURTH PERIODS...THIS WIND THREAT WILL
REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS COORDINATED WITH
WBC AND GSP.

WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. INCREASED
POPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLEARING EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY. THE REMAINING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY ERODES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE SPREAD EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE...DECIDE TO HOLD BACK LIGHT POPS TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT OUR CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE
WINTRY MIXTURE AT THE START THEN EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN
BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW INTO MONDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CENTER AND ITS TRACK WHETHER SOUTH OR WEST OF US HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR FORECAST WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE
NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A /MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING
TO GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY THAT IS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SLEET. SOME ISOLATED...AND TEMPORARY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SURFACE WILL WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AS
50KTS AT 850 MB IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE GUSTS
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO BE AROUND 40 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG NW WINDS...AFTER WHICH LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
VFR EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVERHEAD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291517
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE
FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM EST THURSDAY...

BIGGEST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING IS A ADJUSTMENT TO THE
TIMING AND EXPANSE OF CURRENT LINE OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING
THE AREA. HAVE WEIGHTED VERY HIGHLY THE 13Z/8AM RUN OF THE RNK
WRF-ARW FOR THE ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SOLUTIONS HAS IT REACHING
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY SHORTLY AFTERNOON...WITH IT COVERAGE
QUICKLY ERODING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BY 22Z/3PM.

HAVE INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF SLEET THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION BASED UPON THE LATEST TOP DOWN METHOD
INCORPORATING A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z NAM. GIVEN THE SPEED
OF THE BAND AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE IF
ANY MEASURABLE SLEET IS EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE GAP IN
TIME OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE DISSIPATE OF THIS AFTERNOON/S
PRECIPITATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT BAND THIS EVENING.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

ANOTHER COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THIS MORNING. A FEW
LOCATIONS DIPPED INTO THE TEENS DURING THE NIGHT BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER HAS PUT A HALT TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. IN SPITE OF
THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TODAY...WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. THIS
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY...REACHING BUFFALO
NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE LOW
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE OBS INDICATE MOST OF THIS PRECIP TO BE LIGHT RAIN
OR VIRGA YIELDING TRACE AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 2 HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH /0.02/. THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING...CROSSING OHIO/KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.

MODELS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z/1PM TODAY...THEN DRY UP AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO POPS CONFINING THE HIGHEST POPS
AND BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ANYTHING MAKES IT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS P-TYPE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW... SO WILL GO WITH
MAINLY RAIN OR SPRINKLES. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SO DRY AND
THE WETBULB WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SLEET
MIXING IN AT THE ONSET. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SLEET WOULD BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL
BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES.  ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL THEN CHANGE
BACK OVER TO SNOW.  MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CWA
WHERE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...YIELDING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WV
HIGHLANDS... WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
AN INCH OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM BLUEFIELD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY...BUT AGAIN...FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRYING...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS FAR EAST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH ACROSS THE RIDGES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINDY AND COLD IS ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSH OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF
WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
SECOND RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF MUCH COLDER 850MB AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY
WITH A PUNCH.  ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET
COMES AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY...THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH
TIMING BEING THE THIRD AND FOURTH PERIODS...THIS WIND THREAT WILL
REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS COORDINATED WITH
WBC AND GSP.

WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. INCREASED
POPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLEARING EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY. THE REMAINING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY ERODES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE SPREAD EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE...DECIDE TO HOLD BACK LIGHT POPS TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT OUR CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE
WINTRY MIXTURE AT THE START THEN EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN
BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW INTO MONDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CENTER AND ITS TRACK WHETHER SOUTH OR WEST OF US HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR FORECAST WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE
NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A /MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING
TO GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN ADVANCE OF AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA.
ALL CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH NOON TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH VISIBILITY THIS MORNING AS THE SFC
AIR MASS IS VERY DRY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE CLIPPER WILL RACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC. A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND MAINLY NORTH OF
U.S. 460 AND WEST OF I-81...WITH ONLY SPRINKLES EXPECTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM MID-BASED
CLOUDS AND LIGHT...SO VISIBILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT BLF/LWB WHERE DYNAMICS/LIFT ARE BETTER AND CLOUD CIGS
COULD LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY THEN TO MVFR CATEGORY IN
-SHRA. SFC/850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
THROUGH 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM 02Z/9PM FAR WEST TO AFT
06Z/1AM FRIDAY FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...INCLUDING
LWB/BLF. CIGS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND VISIBILITY
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER
AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIP.

WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN BY FRIDAY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE. WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE WNW
12-18KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG NW WINDS...AFTER WHICH LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
VFR EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVERHEAD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291152
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
652 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE
FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

ANOTHER COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THIS MORNING. A FEW
LOCATIONS DIPPED INTO THE TEENS DURING THE NIGHT BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER HAS PUT A HALT TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. IN SPITE OF
THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TODAY...WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. THIS
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY...REACHING BUFFALO
NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE LOW
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE OBS INDICATE MOST OF THIS PRECIP TO BE LIGHT RAIN
OR VIRGA YIELDING TRACE AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 2 HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH /0.02/. THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING...CROSSING OHIO/KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.

MODELS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z/1PM TODAY...THEN DRY UP AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO POPS CONFINING THE HIGHEST POPS
AND BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ANYTHING MAKES IT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS P-TYPE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW... SO WILL GO WITH
MAINLY RAIN OR SPRINKLES. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SO DRY AND
THE WETBULB WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SLEET
MIXING IN AT THE ONSET. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SLEET WOULD BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL
BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES.  ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL THEN CHANGE
BACK OVER TO SNOW.  MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CWA
WHERE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...YIELDING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WV
HIGHLANDS... WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
AN INCH OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM BLUEFIELD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY...BUT AGAIN...FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRYING...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS FAR EAST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH ACROSS THE RIDGES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINDY AND COLD IS ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSH OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF
WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
SECOND RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF MUCH COLDER 850MB AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY
WITH A PUNCH.  ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET
COMES AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY...THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH
TIMING BEING THE THIRD AND FOURTH PERIODS...THIS WIND THREAT WILL
REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS COORDINATED WITH
WBC AND GSP.

WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. INCREASED
POPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLEARING EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY. THE REMAINING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY ERODES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE SPREAD EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE...DECIDE TO HOLD BACK LIGHT POPS TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT OUR CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE
WINTRY MIXTURE AT THE START THEN EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN
BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW INTO MONDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CENTER AND ITS TRACK WHETHER SOUTH OR WEST OF US HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR FORECAST WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE
NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A /MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING
TO GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN ADVANCE OF AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA.
ALL CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH NOON TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH VISIBILITY THIS MORNING AS THE SFC
AIR MASS IS VERY DRY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE CLIPPER WILL RACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC. A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND MAINLY NORTH OF
U.S. 460 AND WEST OF I-81...WITH ONLY SPRINKLES EXPECTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM MID-BASED
CLOUDS AND LIGHT...SO VISIBILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT BLF/LWB WHERE DYNAMICS/LIFT ARE BETTER AND CLOUD CIGS
COULD LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY THEN TO MVFR CATEGORY IN
-SHRA. SFC/850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
THROUGH 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM 02Z/9PM FAR WEST TO AFT
06Z/1AM FRIDAY FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...INCLUDING
LWB/BLF. CIGS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND VISIBILITY
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER
AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIP.

WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN BY FRIDAY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE. WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE WNW
12-18KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG NW WINDS...AFTER WHICH LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
VFR EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVERHEAD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291152
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
652 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE
FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

ANOTHER COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THIS MORNING. A FEW
LOCATIONS DIPPED INTO THE TEENS DURING THE NIGHT BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER HAS PUT A HALT TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. IN SPITE OF
THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TODAY...WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. THIS
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY...REACHING BUFFALO
NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE LOW
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE OBS INDICATE MOST OF THIS PRECIP TO BE LIGHT RAIN
OR VIRGA YIELDING TRACE AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 2 HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH /0.02/. THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING...CROSSING OHIO/KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.

MODELS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z/1PM TODAY...THEN DRY UP AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO POPS CONFINING THE HIGHEST POPS
AND BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ANYTHING MAKES IT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS P-TYPE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW... SO WILL GO WITH
MAINLY RAIN OR SPRINKLES. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SO DRY AND
THE WETBULB WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SLEET
MIXING IN AT THE ONSET. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SLEET WOULD BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL
BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES.  ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL THEN CHANGE
BACK OVER TO SNOW.  MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CWA
WHERE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...YIELDING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WV
HIGHLANDS... WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
AN INCH OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM BLUEFIELD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY...BUT AGAIN...FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRYING...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS FAR EAST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH ACROSS THE RIDGES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINDY AND COLD IS ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSH OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF
WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
SECOND RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF MUCH COLDER 850MB AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY
WITH A PUNCH.  ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET
COMES AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY...THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH
TIMING BEING THE THIRD AND FOURTH PERIODS...THIS WIND THREAT WILL
REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS COORDINATED WITH
WBC AND GSP.

WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. INCREASED
POPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLEARING EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY. THE REMAINING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY ERODES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE SPREAD EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE...DECIDE TO HOLD BACK LIGHT POPS TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT OUR CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE
WINTRY MIXTURE AT THE START THEN EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN
BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW INTO MONDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CENTER AND ITS TRACK WHETHER SOUTH OR WEST OF US HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR FORECAST WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE
NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A /MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING
TO GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN ADVANCE OF AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA.
ALL CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH NOON TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH VISIBILITY THIS MORNING AS THE SFC
AIR MASS IS VERY DRY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE CLIPPER WILL RACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC. A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND MAINLY NORTH OF
U.S. 460 AND WEST OF I-81...WITH ONLY SPRINKLES EXPECTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM MID-BASED
CLOUDS AND LIGHT...SO VISIBILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT BLF/LWB WHERE DYNAMICS/LIFT ARE BETTER AND CLOUD CIGS
COULD LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY THEN TO MVFR CATEGORY IN
-SHRA. SFC/850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
THROUGH 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM 02Z/9PM FAR WEST TO AFT
06Z/1AM FRIDAY FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...INCLUDING
LWB/BLF. CIGS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND VISIBILITY
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER
AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIP.

WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN BY FRIDAY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE. WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE WNW
12-18KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG NW WINDS...AFTER WHICH LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
VFR EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVERHEAD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291001
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
501 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE
FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

ANOTHER COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THIS MORNING. A FEW
LOCATIONS DIPPED INTO THE TEENS DURING THE NIGHT BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER HAS PUT A HALT TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. IN SPITE OF
THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TODAY...WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. THIS
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY...REACHING BUFFALO
NEW YOUR BY THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE LOW
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM INDIANA TO WESTERN KY.
SURFACE OBS INDICATE MOST OF THIS PRECIP TO BE LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
YIELDING TRACE AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 2 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH /0.02/.
THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST THIS
MORNING...CROSSING OHIO AND KENTUCKY.

MODELS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z/1PM TODAY...THEN DRY UP AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO POPS CONFINING THE HIGHEST POPS
AND BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ANYTHING MAKES IT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS P-TYPE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW... SO WILL GO WITH
MAINLY RAIN OR SPRINKLES. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SO DRY AND
THE WETBULB WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SLEET
MIXING IN AT THE ONSET. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SLEET WOULD BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL
BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES.  ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL THEN CHANGE
BACK OVER TO SNOW.  MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CWA
WHERE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...YIELDING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WV
HIGHLANDS... WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
AN INCH OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM BLUEFIELD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY...BUT AGAIN...FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRYING...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS FAR EAST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH ACROSS THE RIDGES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINDY AND COLD IS ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSH OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF
WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
SECOND RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF MUCH COLDER 850MB AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY
WITH A PUNCH.  ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET
COMES AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY...THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH
TIMING BEING THE THIRD AND FOURTH PERIODS...THIS WIND THREAT WILL
REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS COORDINATED WITH
WBC AND GSP.

WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. INCREASED
POPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLEARING EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY. THE REMAINING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY ERODES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE SPREAD EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE...DECIDE TO HOLD BACK LIGHT POPS TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT OUR CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE
WINTRY MIXTURE AT THE START THEN EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN
BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW INTO MONDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CENTER AND ITS TRACK WHETHER SOUTH OR WEST OF US HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR FORECAST WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE
NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A /MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING
TO GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN ADVANCE OF AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA.
ALL CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH NOON TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH VISIBILITY THIS MORNING AS THE SFC
AIR MASS IS VERY DRY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE CLIPPER WILL RACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC. A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND MAINLY NORTH OF
U.S. 460 AND WEST OF I-81...WITH ONLY SPRINKLES EXPECTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM MID-BASED
CLOUDS AND LIGHT...SO VISIBILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT BLF/LWB WHERE DYNAMICS/LIFT ARE BETTER AND CLOUD CIGS
COULD LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY THEN TO MVFR CATEGORY IN
-SHRA. SFC/850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
THROUGH 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM 02Z/9PM FAR WEST TO AFT
06Z/1AM FRIDAY FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...INCLUDING
LWB/BLF. CIGS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND VISIBILITY
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER
AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIP.

WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN BY FRIDAY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE. WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE WNW
12-18KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG NW WINDS...AFTER WHICH LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
VFR EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVERHEAD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291001
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
501 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE
FROM TEXAS SUNDAY...TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

ANOTHER COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THIS MORNING. A FEW
LOCATIONS DIPPED INTO THE TEENS DURING THE NIGHT BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER HAS PUT A HALT TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. IN SPITE OF
THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TODAY...WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. THIS
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY...REACHING BUFFALO
NEW YOUR BY THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE LOW
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM INDIANA TO WESTERN KY.
SURFACE OBS INDICATE MOST OF THIS PRECIP TO BE LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
YIELDING TRACE AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 2 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH /0.02/.
THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST THIS
MORNING...CROSSING OHIO AND KENTUCKY.

MODELS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z/1PM TODAY...THEN DRY UP AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO POPS CONFINING THE HIGHEST POPS
AND BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ANYTHING MAKES IT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS P-TYPE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW... SO WILL GO WITH
MAINLY RAIN OR SPRINKLES. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SO DRY AND
THE WETBULB WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SLEET
MIXING IN AT THE ONSET. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SLEET WOULD BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL
BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES.  ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL THEN CHANGE
BACK OVER TO SNOW.  MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CWA
WHERE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...YIELDING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WV
HIGHLANDS... WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
AN INCH OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM BLUEFIELD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY...BUT AGAIN...FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRYING...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS FAR EAST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH ACROSS THE RIDGES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINDY AND COLD IS ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSH OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF
WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
SECOND RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF MUCH COLDER 850MB AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY
WITH A PUNCH.  ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET
COMES AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY...THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH
TIMING BEING THE THIRD AND FOURTH PERIODS...THIS WIND THREAT WILL
REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS COORDINATED WITH
WBC AND GSP.

WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. INCREASED
POPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLEARING EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY. THE REMAINING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY ERODES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE SPREAD EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE...DECIDE TO HOLD BACK LIGHT POPS TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT OUR CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE
WINTRY MIXTURE AT THE START THEN EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN
BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW INTO MONDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CENTER AND ITS TRACK WHETHER SOUTH OR WEST OF US HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR FORECAST WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE
NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A /MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING
TO GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN ADVANCE OF AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA.
ALL CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH NOON TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH VISIBILITY THIS MORNING AS THE SFC
AIR MASS IS VERY DRY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE CLIPPER WILL RACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC. A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND MAINLY NORTH OF
U.S. 460 AND WEST OF I-81...WITH ONLY SPRINKLES EXPECTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM MID-BASED
CLOUDS AND LIGHT...SO VISIBILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT BLF/LWB WHERE DYNAMICS/LIFT ARE BETTER AND CLOUD CIGS
COULD LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY THEN TO MVFR CATEGORY IN
-SHRA. SFC/850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
THROUGH 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM 02Z/9PM FAR WEST TO AFT
06Z/1AM FRIDAY FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...INCLUDING
LWB/BLF. CIGS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND VISIBILITY
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER
AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIP.

WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN BY FRIDAY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE. WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE WNW
12-18KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG NW WINDS...AFTER WHICH LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
VFR EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVERHEAD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290501
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1201 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT OBS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. IR SATELLITE SHOWS THIN CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. MODELS DO
SHOW THE CIRRUS ADVANCING BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL REMAIN
THIN AND SHOULD NOT IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO LOW TEMP FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS AFD...

UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
850 MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH LOW SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COMING OVER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THIS EVENING. WILL STAY
CLOSER TO COLDER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER NEW YORK BY LATE FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRST SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER 850 MB AIR COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS RE-ENFORCED ON
FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET COMES
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST. NAM/GFS SHOWED PRESSURE RISES CLOSE TO 6MB/6HR FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BUFKIT AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. WITH THE
DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL START TO SEE CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY WILL ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM.

MODELS WERE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z/1PM THURSDAY. A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT EVEN THAT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A CHANGE AS SPLIT FLOW
WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW EASTERN TROF BECOMES UNIFIED AS THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LEAVING US WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND A BROAD FLAT
EASTERN TROF EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW WAY UP NEAR HUDSON BAY
IN CANADA. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SURGES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HEADING OUR WAY ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS.

WE WILL START THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WE WILL SEE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE WINTRY MIX AT THE START THEN EXPECT
A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
/MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING TO
GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW
LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...IN ADVANCE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF
WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. SCT-BKN250 WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WILL STAY NORTH OF
U.S. 460...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS
WITH VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT EITHER AS THE SFC AIR MASS IS VERY DRY.
DURING THE DAY THU...THE CLIPPER WILL RACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC. A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THE ASSOCIATED FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. 460 AND
WEST OF I-81. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR MUCH MORE
THAN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM MID-
BASED CLOUDS AND LIGHT...SO VISIBILITY WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE...EXPECT POSSIBLY AT BLF/LWB WHERE DYNAMICS/LIFT ARE BETTER
AND CLOUD CIGS COULD LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR DURING
THIS ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY THEN TO MVFR CATEGORY IN
-SHRA. SFC/850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
THROUGH THIS 00Z. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM 02Z FAR
WEST TO AFT 06Z FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR UPSLOPE -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS...INCLUDING
LWB/BLF. AT THIS POINT...CIGS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AND VISIBILITY POTENTIALLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES AS WELL.

WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...HOWEVER...EXPECT CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5-8 KTS AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN SSE-
SSW THROUGH THE DAY THU INCREASING TO 8-12KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AFT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITHIN THE TIME FRAME NOTED ABOVE...MAINLY AFT 00Z...EXPECT WNW
WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS. IT STILL APPEARS THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL COME AFT 06Z AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE AFT 12Z.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO PERSISTING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY MORNING...SO KLYH AND KDAN WILL IMPROVE BACK UP TO VFR.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290501
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1201 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT OBS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. IR SATELLITE SHOWS THIN CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. MODELS DO
SHOW THE CIRRUS ADVANCING BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL REMAIN
THIN AND SHOULD NOT IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO LOW TEMP FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS AFD...

UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
850 MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH LOW SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COMING OVER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THIS EVENING. WILL STAY
CLOSER TO COLDER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER NEW YORK BY LATE FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRST SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER 850 MB AIR COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS RE-ENFORCED ON
FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET COMES
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST. NAM/GFS SHOWED PRESSURE RISES CLOSE TO 6MB/6HR FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BUFKIT AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. WITH THE
DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL START TO SEE CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY WILL ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM.

MODELS WERE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z/1PM THURSDAY. A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT EVEN THAT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A CHANGE AS SPLIT FLOW
WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW EASTERN TROF BECOMES UNIFIED AS THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LEAVING US WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND A BROAD FLAT
EASTERN TROF EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW WAY UP NEAR HUDSON BAY
IN CANADA. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SURGES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HEADING OUR WAY ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS.

WE WILL START THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WE WILL SEE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE WINTRY MIX AT THE START THEN EXPECT
A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
/MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING TO
GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW
LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...IN ADVANCE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF
WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. SCT-BKN250 WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WILL STAY NORTH OF
U.S. 460...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS
WITH VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT EITHER AS THE SFC AIR MASS IS VERY DRY.
DURING THE DAY THU...THE CLIPPER WILL RACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC. A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THE ASSOCIATED FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. 460 AND
WEST OF I-81. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR MUCH MORE
THAN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM MID-
BASED CLOUDS AND LIGHT...SO VISIBILITY WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE...EXPECT POSSIBLY AT BLF/LWB WHERE DYNAMICS/LIFT ARE BETTER
AND CLOUD CIGS COULD LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR DURING
THIS ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY THEN TO MVFR CATEGORY IN
-SHRA. SFC/850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
THROUGH THIS 00Z. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM 02Z FAR
WEST TO AFT 06Z FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR UPSLOPE -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS...INCLUDING
LWB/BLF. AT THIS POINT...CIGS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AND VISIBILITY POTENTIALLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES AS WELL.

WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...HOWEVER...EXPECT CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5-8 KTS AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN SSE-
SSW THROUGH THE DAY THU INCREASING TO 8-12KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AFT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITHIN THE TIME FRAME NOTED ABOVE...MAINLY AFT 00Z...EXPECT WNW
WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS. IT STILL APPEARS THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL COME AFT 06Z AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE AFT 12Z.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO PERSISTING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY MORNING...SO KLYH AND KDAN WILL IMPROVE BACK UP TO VFR.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290012
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
712 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT OBS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. IR SATELLITE SHOWS THIN CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. MODELS DO
SHOW THE CIRRUS ADVANCING BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL REMAIN
THIN AND SHOULD NOT IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO LOW TEMP FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS AFD...

UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
850 MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH LOW SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COMING OVER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THIS EVENING. WILL STAY
CLOSER TO COLDER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER NEW YORK BY LATE FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRST SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER 850 MB AIR COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS RE-ENFORCED ON
FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET COMES
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST. NAM/GFS SHOWED PRESSURE RISES CLOSE TO 6MB/6HR FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BUFKIT AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. WITH THE
DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL START TO SEE CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY WILL ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM.

MODELS WERE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z/1PM THURSDAY. A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT EVEN THAT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A CHANGE AS SPLIT FLOW
WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW EASTERN TROF BECOMES UNIFIED AS THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LEAVING US WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND A BROAD FLAT
EASTERN TROF EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW WAY UP NEAR HUDSON BAY
IN CANADA. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SURGES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HEADING OUR WAY ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS.

WE WILL START THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WE WILL SEE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE WINTRY MIX AT THE START THEN EXPECT
A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
/MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING TO
GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW
LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...IN ADVANCE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF
WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. SCT-BKN250 IS EXPECTED AT MOST
TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...KEEPING CIGS VFR. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PROBLEMS WITH VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT EITHER AS THE SFC AIR MASS IS
VERY DRY. DURING THE DAY THU...THE CLIPPER WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC. A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE ASSOCIATED FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF
U.S. 460 AND WEST OF I-81. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
FOR MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FALLING FROM MID-BASED CLOUDS...SO VISIBILITY WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE...EXPECT POSSIBLY AT BLF/LWB WHERE DYNAMICS ARE BETTER AND
CLOUD CIGS COULD LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY THEN TO MVFR CATEGORY IN
-SHRA. SFC/850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...HOWEVER...EXPECT CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5-8 KTS AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
SSE-SSW THROUGH THE DAY THU INCREASING TO 8-12KTS WITH LOW END
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE AFT 12Z.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO PERSISTING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY MORNING...SO KLYH AND KDAN WILL IMPROVE BACK UP TO VFR.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...MBS/AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 290012
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
712 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT OBS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. IR SATELLITE SHOWS THIN CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. MODELS DO
SHOW THE CIRRUS ADVANCING BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL REMAIN
THIN AND SHOULD NOT IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO LOW TEMP FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS AFD...

UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
850 MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH LOW SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COMING OVER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THIS EVENING. WILL STAY
CLOSER TO COLDER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER NEW YORK BY LATE FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRST SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER 850 MB AIR COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS RE-ENFORCED ON
FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET COMES
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST. NAM/GFS SHOWED PRESSURE RISES CLOSE TO 6MB/6HR FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BUFKIT AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. WITH THE
DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL START TO SEE CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY WILL ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM.

MODELS WERE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z/1PM THURSDAY. A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT EVEN THAT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A CHANGE AS SPLIT FLOW
WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW EASTERN TROF BECOMES UNIFIED AS THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LEAVING US WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND A BROAD FLAT
EASTERN TROF EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW WAY UP NEAR HUDSON BAY
IN CANADA. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SURGES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HEADING OUR WAY ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS.

WE WILL START THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WE WILL SEE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE WINTRY MIX AT THE START THEN EXPECT
A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
/MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING TO
GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW
LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...IN ADVANCE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF
WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. SCT-BKN250 IS EXPECTED AT MOST
TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...KEEPING CIGS VFR. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PROBLEMS WITH VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT EITHER AS THE SFC AIR MASS IS
VERY DRY. DURING THE DAY THU...THE CLIPPER WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC. A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE ASSOCIATED FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF
U.S. 460 AND WEST OF I-81. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
FOR MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FALLING FROM MID-BASED CLOUDS...SO VISIBILITY WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE...EXPECT POSSIBLY AT BLF/LWB WHERE DYNAMICS ARE BETTER AND
CLOUD CIGS COULD LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY THEN TO MVFR CATEGORY IN
-SHRA. SFC/850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...HOWEVER...EXPECT CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5-8 KTS AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
SSE-SSW THROUGH THE DAY THU INCREASING TO 8-12KTS WITH LOW END
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE AFT 12Z.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO PERSISTING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY MORNING...SO KLYH AND KDAN WILL IMPROVE BACK UP TO VFR.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...MBS/AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290001
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 850
MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COMING OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THIS EVENING. WILL STAY CLOSER TO COLDER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER NEW YORK BY LATE FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRST SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER 850 MB AIR COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS RE-ENFORCED ON
FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET COMES
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST. NAM/GFS SHOWED PRESSURE RISES CLOSE TO 6MB/6HR FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BUFKIT AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. WITH THE
DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL START TO SEE CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY WILL ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM.

MODELS WERE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z/1PM THURSDAY. A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT EVEN THAT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A CHANGE AS SPLIT FLOW
WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW EASTERN TROF BECOMES UNIFIED AS THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LEAVING US WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND A BROAD FLAT
EASTERN TROF EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW WAY UP NEAR HUDSON BAY
IN CANADA. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SURGES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HEADING OUR WAY ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS.

WE WILL START THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WE WILL SEE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE WINTRY MIX AT THE START THEN EXPECT
A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
/MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING TO
GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW
LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...IN ADVANCE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF
WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. SCT-BKN250 IS EXPECTED AT MOST
TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...KEEPING CIGS VFR. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PROBLEMS WITH VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT EITHER AS THE SFC AIR MASS IS
VERY DRY. DURING THE DAY THU...THE CLIPPER WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC. A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE ASSOCIATED FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF
U.S. 460 AND WEST OF I-81. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
FOR MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FALLING FROM MID-BASED CLOUDS...SO VISIBILITY WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE...EXPECT POSSIBLY AT BLF/LWB WHERE DYNAMICS ARE BETTER AND
CLOUD CIGS COULD LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY THEN TO MVFR CATEGORY IN
-SHRA. SFC/850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...HOWEVER...EXPECT CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5-8 KTS AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
SSE-SSW THROUGH THE DAY THU INCREASING TO 8-12KTS WITH LOW END
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE AFT 12Z.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO PERSISTING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY MORNING...SO KLYH AND KDAN WILL IMPROVE BACK UP TO VFR.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290001
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 850
MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COMING OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THIS EVENING. WILL STAY CLOSER TO COLDER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER NEW YORK BY LATE FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRST SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER 850 MB AIR COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS RE-ENFORCED ON
FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET COMES
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST. NAM/GFS SHOWED PRESSURE RISES CLOSE TO 6MB/6HR FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BUFKIT AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. WITH THE
DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL START TO SEE CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY WILL ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM.

MODELS WERE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z/1PM THURSDAY. A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT EVEN THAT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A CHANGE AS SPLIT FLOW
WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW EASTERN TROF BECOMES UNIFIED AS THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LEAVING US WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND A BROAD FLAT
EASTERN TROF EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW WAY UP NEAR HUDSON BAY
IN CANADA. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SURGES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HEADING OUR WAY ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS.

WE WILL START THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WE WILL SEE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE WINTRY MIX AT THE START THEN EXPECT
A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
/MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING TO
GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW
LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...IN ADVANCE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF
WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. SCT-BKN250 IS EXPECTED AT MOST
TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...KEEPING CIGS VFR. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PROBLEMS WITH VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT EITHER AS THE SFC AIR MASS IS
VERY DRY. DURING THE DAY THU...THE CLIPPER WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC. A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE ASSOCIATED FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF
U.S. 460 AND WEST OF I-81. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
FOR MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FALLING FROM MID-BASED CLOUDS...SO VISIBILITY WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE...EXPECT POSSIBLY AT BLF/LWB WHERE DYNAMICS ARE BETTER AND
CLOUD CIGS COULD LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY THEN TO MVFR CATEGORY IN
-SHRA. SFC/850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...HOWEVER...EXPECT CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5-8 KTS AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
SSE-SSW THROUGH THE DAY THU INCREASING TO 8-12KTS WITH LOW END
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE AFT 12Z.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO PERSISTING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY MORNING...SO KLYH AND KDAN WILL IMPROVE BACK UP TO VFR.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 282103
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 850
MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COMING OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THIS EVENING. WILL STAY CLOSER TO COLDER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER NEW YORK BY LATE FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRST SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER 850 MB AIR COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS RE-ENFORCED ON
FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET COMES
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST. NAM/GFS SHOWED PRESSURE RISES CLOSE TO 6MB/6HR FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BUFKIT AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. WITH THE
DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL START TO SEE CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY WILL ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM.

MODELS WERE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z/1PM THURSDAY. A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT EVEN THAT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A CHANGE AS SPLIT FLOW
WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW EASTERN TROF BECOMES UNIFIED AS THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LEAVING US WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND A BROAD FLAT
EASTERN TROF EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW WAY UP NEAR HUDSONS BAY IN
CANADA. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SURGES OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY HEADING OUR WAY ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS.

WE WILL START THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WE WILL SEE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE WINTRY MIX AT THE START THEN EXPECT
A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
/MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING TO
GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW
LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&


.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THE SMALL PATCH OF IFR CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING HAD NEARLY DISSIPATED. HIGH
CONFIDENCE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A CLIPPER WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO PERSISTING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY MORNING...SO KLYH AND KDAN WILL IMPROVE BACK UP TO VFR.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282103
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 850
MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COMING OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THIS EVENING. WILL STAY CLOSER TO COLDER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SHARPENS UPPER TROF WITH A 500MB LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER NEW YORK BY LATE FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRST SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER 850 MB AIR COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS RE-ENFORCED ON
FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET COMES
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST. NAM/GFS SHOWED PRESSURE RISES CLOSE TO 6MB/6HR FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BUFKIT AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. WITH THE
DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL START TO SEE CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY WILL ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM.

MODELS WERE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z/1PM THURSDAY. A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT EVEN THAT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A CHANGE AS SPLIT FLOW
WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW EASTERN TROF BECOMES UNIFIED AS THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LEAVING US WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND A BROAD FLAT
EASTERN TROF EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW WAY UP NEAR HUDSONS BAY IN
CANADA. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SURGES OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY HEADING OUR WAY ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS.

WE WILL START THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND WAVES RIDE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WE WILL SEE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE WINTRY MIX AT THE START THEN EXPECT
A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...THEN BACK TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT AND...AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING...QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD US AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAMS PHASE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
/MILLER A/ TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
BORDERLINE AT BEST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR WINTRY WEATHER. NOTHING TO
GET EXCITED ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW
LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&


.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THE SMALL PATCH OF IFR CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING HAD NEARLY DISSIPATED. HIGH
CONFIDENCE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A CLIPPER WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO PERSISTING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY MORNING...SO KLYH AND KDAN WILL IMPROVE BACK UP TO VFR.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281735
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD AGAIN FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER AIR INCLUDING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS MOUNTAINS
AND 20S PIEDMONT. ADD IN A 10 MPH NORTHWEST WIND AND THE WIND
CHILLS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL
RESULTING IN SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION.

OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COASTAL WINTER STORM. THE
ONLY REMNANT EFFECT IS THE WIND AND SOME FLURRIES...WHICH WILL GO
AWAY TODAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. AS OF DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH
WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 1030 MB AS IT
PASSES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. NET RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 40S PIEDMONT.

MEANWHILE...WELL UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY CROSSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS CLIPPER LIKE STORM IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE
LOW...SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT...WIND FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES
IN ADDITION TO SOME INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BOTTOM
OUT EARLY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF ANY CLOUD COVER...LOWS IN THE
20S. IF CLOUDS ARE DELAYED...THEN WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES DIP
BACK INTO THE TEENS AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE MODELS. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH A MODEL BLEND SINCE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE CLOUD
COVER TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY MORNING
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST...AS CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND IS PROGGED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...WHILE
SWINGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH BEST DYNAMICS AND LIFT
HEADING BY TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF SNOW/RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
FAR WEST BY MIDDAY AND ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE RIDGES UNDER A QUICKLY
VEERING WESTERLY FLOW. PTYPE LIKELY TO START AS LIGHT SNOW MOUNTAINS
BEFORE SWITCHING TO MORE LIQUID NATURE AS BOTH 85H AND BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING TAKE OVER. DURING THE DAY...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO IN WESTERN GREENBRIER WITH OVERALL QPF OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...MAINLY WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE A CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WAS SIMILAR ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH OUR REGION
THURSDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BUT...IT IS TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES. WILL
MENTION SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO...BUT WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY SHOULD PICK UP A TOTAL OF AROUND 5 INCHES BEFORE THINGS START
TO WIND DOWN FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND FREEZING MARK IN THE SOUTHEAST.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COLD WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

ANOTHER ISSUE TO WATCH OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS VERY
STRONG WINDS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWED A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH COULD MIX DOWN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LEANED
TOWARDS HPCGUIDE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER 20S. WITH THE COMBINED WIND AND COLD...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
BE AS COLD AS ZERO TO TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 20S IN THE
EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF MORE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SPLIT FLOW WITH A
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE FOR THE PAC NW.
THERE IS ENOUGH GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MEMBERS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY NAEFS ANOMALIES...TO LEAN TO THE
COLD SOLUTION.

THE UPPER TROF IN THE CENTRAL US WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
NOT SPLIT HAIRS ABOUT PTYPE THIS FAR OUT BUT THE GENERAL TRACK TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH WILL KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STORM.
POSSIBLE HYBRID WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET MAY HELP COOL THINGS FOR
WINTRY MIX AT ONSET GOING TO RAIN FOR THE BULK OF SUNDAY THEN BACK
TO WINTRY AS PCPN TAPERS OFF...THOUGH TYPICAL NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER STRONG NW WIND
EVENT AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT THERE IS
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
EVOLUTION OF LOW LEVEL WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE TRYS TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THE SMALL PATCH OF IFR CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING HAD NEARLY DISSIPATED. HIGH
CONFIDENCE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A CLIPPER WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO PERSISTING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY MORNING...SO KLYH AND KDAN WILL IMPROVE BACK UP TO VFR.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281735
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD AGAIN FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER AIR INCLUDING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS MOUNTAINS
AND 20S PIEDMONT. ADD IN A 10 MPH NORTHWEST WIND AND THE WIND
CHILLS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL
RESULTING IN SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION.

OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COASTAL WINTER STORM. THE
ONLY REMNANT EFFECT IS THE WIND AND SOME FLURRIES...WHICH WILL GO
AWAY TODAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. AS OF DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH
WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 1030 MB AS IT
PASSES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. NET RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 40S PIEDMONT.

MEANWHILE...WELL UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY CROSSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS CLIPPER LIKE STORM IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE
LOW...SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT...WIND FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES
IN ADDITION TO SOME INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BOTTOM
OUT EARLY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF ANY CLOUD COVER...LOWS IN THE
20S. IF CLOUDS ARE DELAYED...THEN WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES DIP
BACK INTO THE TEENS AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE MODELS. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH A MODEL BLEND SINCE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE CLOUD
COVER TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY MORNING
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST...AS CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND IS PROGGED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...WHILE
SWINGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH BEST DYNAMICS AND LIFT
HEADING BY TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF SNOW/RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
FAR WEST BY MIDDAY AND ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE RIDGES UNDER A QUICKLY
VEERING WESTERLY FLOW. PTYPE LIKELY TO START AS LIGHT SNOW MOUNTAINS
BEFORE SWITCHING TO MORE LIQUID NATURE AS BOTH 85H AND BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING TAKE OVER. DURING THE DAY...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO IN WESTERN GREENBRIER WITH OVERALL QPF OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...MAINLY WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE A CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WAS SIMILAR ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH OUR REGION
THURSDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BUT...IT IS TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES. WILL
MENTION SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO...BUT WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY SHOULD PICK UP A TOTAL OF AROUND 5 INCHES BEFORE THINGS START
TO WIND DOWN FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND FREEZING MARK IN THE SOUTHEAST.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COLD WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

ANOTHER ISSUE TO WATCH OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS VERY
STRONG WINDS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWED A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH COULD MIX DOWN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LEANED
TOWARDS HPCGUIDE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER 20S. WITH THE COMBINED WIND AND COLD...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
BE AS COLD AS ZERO TO TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 20S IN THE
EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF MORE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SPLIT FLOW WITH A
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE FOR THE PAC NW.
THERE IS ENOUGH GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MEMBERS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY NAEFS ANOMALIES...TO LEAN TO THE
COLD SOLUTION.

THE UPPER TROF IN THE CENTRAL US WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
NOT SPLIT HAIRS ABOUT PTYPE THIS FAR OUT BUT THE GENERAL TRACK TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH WILL KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STORM.
POSSIBLE HYBRID WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET MAY HELP COOL THINGS FOR
WINTRY MIX AT ONSET GOING TO RAIN FOR THE BULK OF SUNDAY THEN BACK
TO WINTRY AS PCPN TAPERS OFF...THOUGH TYPICAL NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER STRONG NW WIND
EVENT AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT THERE IS
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
EVOLUTION OF LOW LEVEL WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE TRYS TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THE SMALL PATCH OF IFR CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING HAD NEARLY DISSIPATED. HIGH
CONFIDENCE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A CLIPPER WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO PERSISTING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY MORNING...SO KLYH AND KDAN WILL IMPROVE BACK UP TO VFR.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM




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