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000
FXUS61 KRNK 280543
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WATCHING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HRRR 23Z RUN SHOWS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHING
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG WITH ADDING THUNDER TO THE GRIDS. BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

AS OF 225 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CU FIELD LIES FROM THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY NEWD ALONG
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH BEST SITUATED
ACROSS KY INTO OHIO AND PA. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN FRINGES OF SE WV/FAR SW VA AND BATH
VA. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE BUT MOISTURE IS
STARTING TO INCREASE AS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS ASCENDING INTO THE 60S.

LOW TEMPS AS SUCH ARE GOING TO BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL
NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID 60S
PIEDMONT.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER LATE TONIGHT/THU
MORNING. MODELS SHOW AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO ALIGN ACROSS THE NC MTNS
INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE WHERE
TSRA WILL FORM...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE. MAINLY DRY NORTH OF A BLF-ROA LINE.

CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED/BKN AFTER ANY MORNING FOG LIFTS...WITH
HIGHS SURGING INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CANNOT
IDENTIFY WITHIN THE MODEL DATA ANY STRONG DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT...SO BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE OF THE LIGHT AND
OCCASIONAL VARIETY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE DIP IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY RATHER ISOLATED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME FIRMLY REESTABLISHED
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH...
EXPECT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO RAMP UP OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A DIRECT
WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEEP GULF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY...RAINFALL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH
PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES IN THE BALLPARK OF 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
AREA...BELIEVE THAT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO PASS REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION...WITH NO STRONG DISTURBANCES EXPECTED. BELIEVE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAN ANYTHING ELSE...MEANING RAINFALL WILL BE MORE OF THE
HIT AND MISS VARIETY.

LOOKING TO TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE OHIO RIVER IS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FRONT SINKS.

ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
WEST VIRGINIA...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KLWB AND KBLF AIRPORT.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH.

AMOUNT OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DEPEND ON THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING ON LIFR FOG AT
KLWB. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION OF IFR OR LIFR FOG AT KBCB
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING.

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TODAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PERMIT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. POSITION OF FRONT BY THAT TIME SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE VA/NC BORDER...THEN DRIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE MEAN WIND WHICH WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OUT OF THE KDAN TAF.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. WHERE SHRA/TSRA OCCUR BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL
AIRPORT...REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED BUT
APPEARS REPAIRS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...CF/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280157
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
957 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WATCHING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HRRR 23Z RUN SHOWS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHING
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG WITH ADDING THUNDER TO THE GRIDS. BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

AS OF 225 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CU FIELD LIES FROM THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY NEWD ALONG
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH BEST SITUATED
ACROSS KY INTO OHIO AND PA. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN FRINGES OF SE WV/FAR SW VA AND BATH
VA. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE BUT MOISTURE IS
STARTING TO INCREASE AS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS ASCENDING INTO THE 60S.

LOW TEMPS AS SUCH ARE GOING TO BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL
NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID 60S
PIEDMONT.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER LATE TONIGHT/THU
MORNING. MODELS SHOW AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO ALIGN ACROSS THE NC MTNS
INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE WHERE
TSRA WILL FORM...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE. MAINLY DRY NORTH OF A BLF-ROA LINE.

CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED/BKN AFTER ANY MORNING FOG LIFTS...WITH
HIGHS SURGING INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CANNOT
IDENTIFY WITHIN THE MODEL DATA ANY STRONG DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT...SO BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE OF THE LIGHT AND
OCCASIONAL VARIETY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE DIP IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY RATHER ISOLATED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME FIRMLY REESTABLISHED
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH...
EXPECT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO RAMP UP OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A DIRECT
WINDFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEEP GULF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY...RAINFALL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH
PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES IN THE BALLPARK OF 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
AREA...BELIEVE THAT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO PASS REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION...WITH NO STRONG DISTURBANCES EXPECTED. BELIEVE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAN ANYTHING ELSE...MEANING RAINFALL WILL BE MORE OF THE
HIT AND MISS VARIETY.

LOOKING TO TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE OHIO RIVER IS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FRONT SINKS.

ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM MGW-LEX...APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE B4 MIDNIGHT. DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 10KFT...MAY PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN WV INTO
SOUTHERN VA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
BE PRETTY THIN...THUS PROMOTING ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WITH FORMATION OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KLWB/KBCB WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ANY
FOG/STRATUS LIFTING MID MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PERMIT
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POSITION OF FRONT BY
THAT TIME SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE
VA/NC BORDER...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE
MEAN WIND WHICH WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

SCT-BKN CU SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TOWERING CU LIMITED TO THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING INTO NORTH CAROLINA. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...4-7KTS AT THE MOST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FRIDAY...THEN
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. WHERE
SHRA/TSRA OCCUR BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS SUCH...THE FIRST
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE TO VFR FLYING
COMPARED TO THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL
AIRPORT...REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED BUT
APPEARS REPAIRS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...CF/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280157
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
957 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WATCHING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HRRR 23Z RUN SHOWS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHING
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG WITH ADDING THUNDER TO THE GRIDS. BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

AS OF 225 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CU FIELD LIES FROM THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY NEWD ALONG
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH BEST SITUATED
ACROSS KY INTO OHIO AND PA. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN FRINGES OF SE WV/FAR SW VA AND BATH
VA. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE BUT MOISTURE IS
STARTING TO INCREASE AS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS ASCENDING INTO THE 60S.

LOW TEMPS AS SUCH ARE GOING TO BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL
NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID 60S
PIEDMONT.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER LATE TONIGHT/THU
MORNING. MODELS SHOW AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO ALIGN ACROSS THE NC MTNS
INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE WHERE
TSRA WILL FORM...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE. MAINLY DRY NORTH OF A BLF-ROA LINE.

CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED/BKN AFTER ANY MORNING FOG LIFTS...WITH
HIGHS SURGING INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CANNOT
IDENTIFY WITHIN THE MODEL DATA ANY STRONG DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT...SO BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE OF THE LIGHT AND
OCCASIONAL VARIETY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE DIP IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY RATHER ISOLATED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME FIRMLY REESTABLISHED
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH...
EXPECT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO RAMP UP OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A DIRECT
WINDFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEEP GULF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY...RAINFALL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH
PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES IN THE BALLPARK OF 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
AREA...BELIEVE THAT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO PASS REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION...WITH NO STRONG DISTURBANCES EXPECTED. BELIEVE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAN ANYTHING ELSE...MEANING RAINFALL WILL BE MORE OF THE
HIT AND MISS VARIETY.

LOOKING TO TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE OHIO RIVER IS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FRONT SINKS.

ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM MGW-LEX...APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE B4 MIDNIGHT. DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 10KFT...MAY PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN WV INTO
SOUTHERN VA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
BE PRETTY THIN...THUS PROMOTING ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WITH FORMATION OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KLWB/KBCB WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ANY
FOG/STRATUS LIFTING MID MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PERMIT
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POSITION OF FRONT BY
THAT TIME SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE
VA/NC BORDER...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE
MEAN WIND WHICH WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

SCT-BKN CU SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TOWERING CU LIMITED TO THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING INTO NORTH CAROLINA. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...4-7KTS AT THE MOST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FRIDAY...THEN
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. WHERE
SHRA/TSRA OCCUR BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS SUCH...THE FIRST
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE TO VFR FLYING
COMPARED TO THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL
AIRPORT...REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED BUT
APPEARS REPAIRS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...CF/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280022
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
822 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CU FIELD LIES FROM THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY NEWD ALONG
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH BEST SITUATED
ACROSS KY INTO OHIO AND PA. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN FRINGES OF SE WV/FAR SW VA AND BATH
VA. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE BUT MOISTURE IS
STARTING TO INCREASE AS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS ASCENDING INTO THE 60S.

LOW TEMPS AS SUCH ARE GOING TO BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL
NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID 60S
PIEDMONT.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER LATE TONIGHT/THU
MORNING. MODELS SHOW AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO ALIGN ACROSS THE NC MTNS
INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE WHERE
TSRA WILL FORM...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE. MAINLY DRY NORTH OF A BLF-ROA LINE.

CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED/BKN AFTER ANY MORNING FOG LIFTS...WITH
HIGHS SURGING INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CANNOT
IDENTIFY WITHIN THE MODEL DATA ANY STRONG DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT...SO BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE OF THE LIGHT AND
OCCASIONAL VARIETY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE DIP IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY RATHER ISOLATED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME FIRMLY REESTABLISHED
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH...
EXPECT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO RAMP UP OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A DIRECT
WINDFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEEP GULF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY...RAINFALL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH
PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES IN THE BALLPARK OF 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
AREA...BELIEVE THAT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO PASS REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION...WITH NO STRONG DISTURBANCES EXPECTED. BELIEVE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAN ANYTHING ELSE...MEANING RAINFALL WILL BE MORE OF THE
HIT AND MISS VARIETY.

LOOKING TO TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE OHIO RIVER IS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FRONT SINKS.

ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM MGW-LEX...APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE B4 MIDNIGHT. DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 10KFT...MAY PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN WV INTO
SOUTHERN VA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
BE PRETTY THIN...THUS PROMOTING ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WITH FORMATION OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KLWB/KBCB WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ANY
FOG/STRATUS LIFTING MID MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PERMIT
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POSITION OF FRONT BY
THAT TIME SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE
VA/NC BORDER...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE
MEAN WIND WHICH WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

SCT-BKN CU SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TOWERING CU LIMITED TO THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING INTO NORTH CAROLINA. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...4-7KTS AT THE MOST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FRIDAY...THEN
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. WHERE
SHRA/TSRA OCCUR BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS SUCH...THE FIRST
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE TO VFR FLYING
COMPARED TO THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL
AIRPORT...REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED BUT
APPEARS REPAIRS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280022
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
822 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CU FIELD LIES FROM THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY NEWD ALONG
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH BEST SITUATED
ACROSS KY INTO OHIO AND PA. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN FRINGES OF SE WV/FAR SW VA AND BATH
VA. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE BUT MOISTURE IS
STARTING TO INCREASE AS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS ASCENDING INTO THE 60S.

LOW TEMPS AS SUCH ARE GOING TO BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL
NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID 60S
PIEDMONT.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER LATE TONIGHT/THU
MORNING. MODELS SHOW AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO ALIGN ACROSS THE NC MTNS
INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE WHERE
TSRA WILL FORM...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE. MAINLY DRY NORTH OF A BLF-ROA LINE.

CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED/BKN AFTER ANY MORNING FOG LIFTS...WITH
HIGHS SURGING INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CANNOT
IDENTIFY WITHIN THE MODEL DATA ANY STRONG DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT...SO BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE OF THE LIGHT AND
OCCASIONAL VARIETY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE DIP IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY RATHER ISOLATED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME FIRMLY REESTABLISHED
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH...
EXPECT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO RAMP UP OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A DIRECT
WINDFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEEP GULF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY...RAINFALL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH
PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES IN THE BALLPARK OF 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
AREA...BELIEVE THAT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO PASS REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION...WITH NO STRONG DISTURBANCES EXPECTED. BELIEVE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAN ANYTHING ELSE...MEANING RAINFALL WILL BE MORE OF THE
HIT AND MISS VARIETY.

LOOKING TO TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE OHIO RIVER IS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FRONT SINKS.

ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM MGW-LEX...APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE B4 MIDNIGHT. DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 10KFT...MAY PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN WV INTO
SOUTHERN VA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
BE PRETTY THIN...THUS PROMOTING ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WITH FORMATION OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KLWB/KBCB WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ANY
FOG/STRATUS LIFTING MID MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PERMIT
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POSITION OF FRONT BY
THAT TIME SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE
VA/NC BORDER...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE
MEAN WIND WHICH WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

SCT-BKN CU SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TOWERING CU LIMITED TO THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING INTO NORTH CAROLINA. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...4-7KTS AT THE MOST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FRIDAY...THEN
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. WHERE
SHRA/TSRA OCCUR BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS SUCH...THE FIRST
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE TO VFR FLYING
COMPARED TO THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL
AIRPORT...REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED BUT
APPEARS REPAIRS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
357 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CU FIELD LIES FROM THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY NEWD ALONG
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH BEST SITUATED
ACROSS KY INTO OHIO AND PA. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN FRINGES OF SE WV/FAR SW VA AND BATH
VA. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE BUT MOISTURE IS
STARTING TO INCREASE AS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS ASCENDING INTO THE 60S.

LOW TEMPS AS SUCH ARE GOING TO BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL
NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID 60S
PIEDMONT.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER LATE TONIGHT/THU
MORNING. MODELS SHOW AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO ALIGN ACROSS THE NC MTNS
INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE WHERE
TSRA WILL FORM...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE. MAINLY DRY NORTH OF A BLF-ROA LINE.

CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED/BKN AFTER ANY MORNING FOG LIFTS...WITH
HIGHS SURGING INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CANNOT
IDENTIFY WITHIN THE MODEL DATA ANY STRONG DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT...SO BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE OF THE LIGHT AND
OCCASIONAL VARIETY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE DIP IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY RATHER ISOLATED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME FIRMLY REESTABLISHED
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH...
EXPECT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO RAMP UP OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A DIRECT
WINDFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEEP GULF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY...RAINFALL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE BALLPARK OF 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA...BELIEVE
THAT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO PASS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION...WITH NO STRONG DISTURBANCES EXPECTED. BELIEVE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAN ANYTHING ELSE...MEANING RAINFALL WILL BE MORE OF THE
HIT AND MISS VARIETY.

LOOKING TO TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE OHIO RIVER IS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FRONT SINKS.

ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TAF
SITES WITH SOME CU STARTING TO POP TO OUR NORTH...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MESO MODEL RH FIELDS SEEM TO CAPTURE THE
MOISTURE FIELDS WELL SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THEM THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. BELIEVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY BKN CIGS OF CU WILL BECOME
SCATTERED DURING THE EVENING...SETTING UP DECENT RAD COOLING EARLY. THIS
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A SURGE OF
BKN CIGS COMING IN AS NW WINDS GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE WEST OF THE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY LIMITING DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF
BKN CIGS SEEMS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING AS LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINES WITH
HEATING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE N/NE EARLY...WITH A BIT OF ENHANCEMENT TO
THE EAST...THEN BECOMING NWLY TOMORROW.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL
AIRPORT...REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED BUT
APPEARS REPAIRS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271707
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1140 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO FORM ACROSS THE ERN OHIO VALLEY
AND SHIFT SE TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS IN THE REGION REMAINS PRETTY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COVERAGE BUT ADDED ISOLATED THREAT IN BATH/GREENBRIER
REGION. BUMPED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS READINGS OUT EAST ALREADY
WITH 4-5 DEGREES OF FORECAST HIGHS AND WITH FULL SUN THINK MID TO
UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE
EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE MAV
GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL EXIT THE PICTURE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US
THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A CAP OVERHEAD...ANY SHOWERS THAN FORM
WILL HAVE A SHORT LIFE SPAN AND FADE WITH SUNSET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND WEDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. WE WILL THEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SEE IF ANY SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE
REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF SHORE...RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN THIS PULSE
STORM ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TAF
SITES WITH SOME CU STARTING TO POP TO OUR NORTH...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MESO MODEL RH FIELDS SEEM TO CAPTURE THE
MOISTURE FIELDS WELL SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THEM THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. BELIEVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY BKN CIGS OF CU WILL BECOME
SCATTERED DURING THE EVENING...SETTING UP DECENT RAD COOLING EARLY. THIS
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A SURGE OF
BKN CIGS COMING IN AS NW WINDS GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE WEST OF THE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY LIMITING DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF
BKN CIGS SEEMS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING AS LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINES WITH
HEATING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE N/NE EARLY...WITH A BIT OF ENHANCEMENT TO
THE EAST...THEN BECOMING NWLY TOMORROW.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL
AIRPORT...REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED BUT
APPEARS REPAIRS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...MBS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271707
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1140 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO FORM ACROSS THE ERN OHIO VALLEY
AND SHIFT SE TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS IN THE REGION REMAINS PRETTY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COVERAGE BUT ADDED ISOLATED THREAT IN BATH/GREENBRIER
REGION. BUMPED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS READINGS OUT EAST ALREADY
WITH 4-5 DEGREES OF FORECAST HIGHS AND WITH FULL SUN THINK MID TO
UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE
EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE MAV
GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL EXIT THE PICTURE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US
THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A CAP OVERHEAD...ANY SHOWERS THAN FORM
WILL HAVE A SHORT LIFE SPAN AND FADE WITH SUNSET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND WEDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. WE WILL THEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SEE IF ANY SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE
REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF SHORE...RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN THIS PULSE
STORM ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TAF
SITES WITH SOME CU STARTING TO POP TO OUR NORTH...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MESO MODEL RH FIELDS SEEM TO CAPTURE THE
MOISTURE FIELDS WELL SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THEM THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. BELIEVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY BKN CIGS OF CU WILL BECOME
SCATTERED DURING THE EVENING...SETTING UP DECENT RAD COOLING EARLY. THIS
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A SURGE OF
BKN CIGS COMING IN AS NW WINDS GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE WEST OF THE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY LIMITING DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF
BKN CIGS SEEMS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING AS LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINES WITH
HEATING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE N/NE EARLY...WITH A BIT OF ENHANCEMENT TO
THE EAST...THEN BECOMING NWLY TOMORROW.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL
AIRPORT...REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED BUT
APPEARS REPAIRS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...MBS
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271552
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1152 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1140 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO FORM ACROSS THE ERN OHIO VALLEY
AND SHIFT SE TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS IN THE REGION REMAINS PRETTY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COVERAGE BUT ADDED ISOLATED THREAT IN BATH/GREENBRIER
REGION. BUMPED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS READINGS OUT EAST ALREADY
WITH 4-5 DEGREES OF FORECAST HIGHS AND WITH FULL SUN THINK MID TO
UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE
EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE MAV
GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL EXIT THE PICTURE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US
THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A CAP OVERHEAD...ANY SHOWERS THAN FORM
WILL HAVE A SHORT LIFE SPAN AND FADE WITH SUNSET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND WEDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. WE WILL THEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SEE IF ANY SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE
REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF SHORE...RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN THIS PULSE
STORM ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ENHANCED FOG SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOWED FOG HAD FILLED IN
THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO
IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

EXPECTING MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT KLWB
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL
AIRPORT...REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED BUT
APPEARS REPAIRS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271552
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1152 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1140 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO FORM ACROSS THE ERN OHIO VALLEY
AND SHIFT SE TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS IN THE REGION REMAINS PRETTY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COVERAGE BUT ADDED ISOLATED THREAT IN BATH/GREENBRIER
REGION. BUMPED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS READINGS OUT EAST ALREADY
WITH 4-5 DEGREES OF FORECAST HIGHS AND WITH FULL SUN THINK MID TO
UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE
EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE MAV
GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL EXIT THE PICTURE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US
THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A CAP OVERHEAD...ANY SHOWERS THAN FORM
WILL HAVE A SHORT LIFE SPAN AND FADE WITH SUNSET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND WEDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. WE WILL THEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SEE IF ANY SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE
REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF SHORE...RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN THIS PULSE
STORM ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ENHANCED FOG SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOWED FOG HAD FILLED IN
THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO
IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

EXPECTING MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT KLWB
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL
AIRPORT...REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED BUT
APPEARS REPAIRS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIR
MASS IS IS PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND
DYNAMICS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z/6PM AND 02Z/10PM.

SINCE GUIDANCE HAD BEEN TOO WARM FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WILL STAY CLOSER TO BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND
SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
MAV GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CHRISTOBAL WILL EXIT THE PICTURE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US THURSDAY.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A
SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND A CAP OVERHEAD...ANY SHOWERS THAN FORM WILL HAVE A
SHORT LIFE SPAN AND FADE WITH SUNSET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND WEDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. WE WILL THEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SEE IF ANY SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE
REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF SHORE...RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN THIS PULSE
STORM ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ENHANCED FOG SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOWED FOG HAD FILLED IN
THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO
IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

EXPECTING MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT KLWB
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WAS
OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS WERE ENROUTE TO DANVILLE TO MAKE
REPAIRS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIR
MASS IS IS PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND
DYNAMICS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z/6PM AND 02Z/10PM.

SINCE GUIDANCE HAD BEEN TOO WARM FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WILL STAY CLOSER TO BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND
SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
MAV GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CHRISTOBAL WILL EXIT THE PICTURE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US THURSDAY.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A
SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND A CAP OVERHEAD...ANY SHOWERS THAN FORM WILL HAVE A
SHORT LIFE SPAN AND FADE WITH SUNSET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND WEDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. WE WILL THEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SEE IF ANY SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE
REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF SHORE...RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN THIS PULSE
STORM ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ENHANCED FOG SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOWED FOG HAD FILLED IN
THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO
IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

EXPECTING MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT KLWB
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WAS
OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS WERE ENROUTE TO DANVILLE TO MAKE
REPAIRS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270818
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
418 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIR
MASS IS IS PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND
DYNAMICS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z/6PM AND 02Z/10PM.

SINCE GUIDANCE HAD BEEN TOO WARM FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WILL STAY CLOSER TO BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND
SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
MAV GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CHRISTOBAL WILL EXIT THE PICTURE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US THURSDAY.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A
SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND A CAP OVERHEAD...ANY SHOWERS THAN FORM WILL HAVE A
SHORT LIFE SPAN AND FADE WITH SUNSET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND WEDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. WE WILL THEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SEE IF ANY SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE
REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF SHORE...RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN THIS PULSE
STORM ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AREAS OF MVFR TO LIFR VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT KBCB AND KLWB WILL LOWER TO LIFR VISIBILITIES FROM
AROUND 08Z/4AM TO 12Z/8AM.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING
DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE RIVER
VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WAS
OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS WILL BE MADE LATER THIS MORNING.

THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WXL92...ON 162.550 MHZ...HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270818
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
418 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIR
MASS IS IS PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND
DYNAMICS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z/6PM AND 02Z/10PM.

SINCE GUIDANCE HAD BEEN TOO WARM FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WILL STAY CLOSER TO BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND
SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
MAV GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CHRISTOBAL WILL EXIT THE PICTURE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US THURSDAY.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A
SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND A CAP OVERHEAD...ANY SHOWERS THAN FORM WILL HAVE A
SHORT LIFE SPAN AND FADE WITH SUNSET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND WEDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. WE WILL THEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SEE IF ANY SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE
REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF SHORE...RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN THIS PULSE
STORM ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AREAS OF MVFR TO LIFR VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT KBCB AND KLWB WILL LOWER TO LIFR VISIBILITIES FROM
AROUND 08Z/4AM TO 12Z/8AM.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING
DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE RIVER
VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WAS
OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS WILL BE MADE LATER THIS MORNING.

THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WXL92...ON 162.550 MHZ...HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270806
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIR
MASS IS IS PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND
DYNAMICS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z/6PM AND 02Z/10PM.

SINCE GUIDANCE HAD BEEN TOO WARM FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WILL STAY CLOSER TO BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND
SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
MAV GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CHRISTOBAL WILL EXIT THE PICTURE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US THURSDAY.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A
SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND A CAP OVERHEAD...ANY SHOWERS THAN FORM WILL HAVE A
SHORT LIFE SPAN AND FADE WITH SUNSET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND WEDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. WE WILL THEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SEE IF ANY SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE
REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF SHORE...RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN THIS PULSE
STORM ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AREAS OF MVFR TO LIFR VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT KBCB AND KLWB WILL LOWER TO LIFR VISIBILITIES FROM
AROUND 08Z/4AM TO 12Z/8AM.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING
DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE RIVER
VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WAS
OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS WILL BE MADE LATER THIS MORNING.

THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WXL92...ON 162.550 MHZ...WAS OFF THE
AIR DUE TO A PHONE LINE OUTAGE. TECHNICIANS WERE WORKING TO
RESTORE SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270806
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIR
MASS IS IS PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND
DYNAMICS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z/6PM AND 02Z/10PM.

SINCE GUIDANCE HAD BEEN TOO WARM FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WILL STAY CLOSER TO BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND
SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
MAV GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CHRISTOBAL WILL EXIT THE PICTURE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US THURSDAY.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A
SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND A CAP OVERHEAD...ANY SHOWERS THAN FORM WILL HAVE A
SHORT LIFE SPAN AND FADE WITH SUNSET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND WEDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. WE WILL THEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SEE IF ANY SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE
REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF SHORE...RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN THIS PULSE
STORM ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AREAS OF MVFR TO LIFR VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT KBCB AND KLWB WILL LOWER TO LIFR VISIBILITIES FROM
AROUND 08Z/4AM TO 12Z/8AM.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING
DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE RIVER
VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WAS
OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS WILL BE MADE LATER THIS MORNING.

THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WXL92...ON 162.550 MHZ...WAS OFF THE
AIR DUE TO A PHONE LINE OUTAGE. TECHNICIANS WERE WORKING TO
RESTORE SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TWEAKED NEAR TERM TEMP/DEWPT/SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.
ALL OTHER FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.

AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH NORTHERN
VIRGINIA IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ONLY A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN MOIST SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
HOWEVER...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING SOUTH OF AREA.
WILL ALSO SEE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CRISTOBAL WILL HAVE NO
FURTHER AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER...THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE HIGHER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...SHOULD LIFT HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER OVER THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WILL START THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF HATTERAS AND SFC
HIGH RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WED
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN CWA.
MAINLY LOOKING AT DRY WX WED NIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD
WRN GREENBRIER...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY WITH HARDLY ANY UPPER
SUPPORT.

CRISTOBAL HEADS FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS EWD TO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NRN CWA. UPPER HEIGHTS START BUILDING DURING
THIS PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. FRONTAL LIFT IS WEAK...BUT AS THE
LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE EAST THU-FRI APPEARS ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM.
NOTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
CAP THINGS SOME.

AFTER COOL LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK...TEMPS START TO MODERATE BACK
TO AUGUST VALUES AS LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 MTNS WED-THU NIGHT TO
MID 60S EAST...WHILE HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S WEST TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AREAS OF MVFR TO LIFR VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT KBCB AND KLWB WILL LOWER TO LIFR VISIBILITIES FROM
AROUND 08Z/4AM TO 12Z/8AM.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING
DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE RIVER
VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WAS
OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS WILL BE MADE LATER THIS MORNING.

THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WXL92...ON 162.550 MHZ...WAS OFF THE
AIR DUE TO A PHONE LINE OUTAGE. TECHNICIANS WERE WORKING TO
RESTORE SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...CF/NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TWEAKED NEAR TERM TEMP/DEWPT/SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.
ALL OTHER FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.

AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH NORTHERN
VIRGINIA IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ONLY A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN MOIST SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
HOWEVER...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING SOUTH OF AREA.
WILL ALSO SEE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CRISTOBAL WILL HAVE NO
FURTHER AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER...THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE HIGHER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...SHOULD LIFT HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER OVER THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WILL START THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF HATTERAS AND SFC
HIGH RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WED
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN CWA.
MAINLY LOOKING AT DRY WX WED NIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD
WRN GREENBRIER...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY WITH HARDLY ANY UPPER
SUPPORT.

CRISTOBAL HEADS FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS EWD TO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NRN CWA. UPPER HEIGHTS START BUILDING DURING
THIS PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. FRONTAL LIFT IS WEAK...BUT AS THE
LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE EAST THU-FRI APPEARS ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM.
NOTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
CAP THINGS SOME.

AFTER COOL LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK...TEMPS START TO MODERATE BACK
TO AUGUST VALUES AS LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 MTNS WED-THU NIGHT TO
MID 60S EAST...WHILE HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S WEST TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AREAS OF MVFR TO LIFR VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT KBCB AND KLWB WILL LOWER TO LIFR VISIBILITIES FROM
AROUND 08Z/4AM TO 12Z/8AM.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING
DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE RIVER
VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WAS
OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS WILL BE MADE LATER THIS MORNING.

THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WXL92...ON 162.550 MHZ...WAS OFF THE
AIR DUE TO A PHONE LINE OUTAGE. TECHNICIANS WERE WORKING TO
RESTORE SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...CF/NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270131
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
931 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TWEAKED NEAR TERM TEMP/DWPT/SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. ALL
OTHER FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH NORTHERN
VIRGINIA IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ONLY A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN MOIST SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
HOWEVER...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING SOUTH OF AREA.
WILL ALSO SEE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CRISTOBAL WILL HAVE NO
FURTHER AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER...THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE HIGHER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...SHOULD LIFT HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER OVER THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WILL START THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF HATTERAS AND SFC
HIGH RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WED
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN CWA.
MAINLY LOOKING AT DRY WX WED NIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD
WRN GREENBRIER...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY WITH HARDLY ANY UPPER
SUPPORT.

CRISTOBAL HEADS FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS EWD TO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NRN CWA. UPPER HEIGHTS START BUILDING DURING
THIS PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. FRONTAL LIFT IS WEAK...BUT AS THE
LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE EAST THU-FRI APPEARS ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM.
NOTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
CAP THINGS SOME.

AFTER COOL LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK...TEMPS START TO MODERATE BACK
TO AUGUST VALUES AS LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 MTNS WED-THU NIGHT TO
MID 60S EAST...WHILE HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S WEST TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN
TRANSITION TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE FOG WILL BE AT
KLWB AND KBCB...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REMAINING
TERMINALS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KLWB AND KBCB WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LOWER EXPECTED DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING KICKS IN. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM
THE RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...CF/NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270131
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
931 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TWEAKED NEAR TERM TEMP/DWPT/SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. ALL
OTHER FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH NORTHERN
VIRGINIA IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ONLY A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN MOIST SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
HOWEVER...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING SOUTH OF AREA.
WILL ALSO SEE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CRISTOBAL WILL HAVE NO
FURTHER AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER...THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE HIGHER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...SHOULD LIFT HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER OVER THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WILL START THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF HATTERAS AND SFC
HIGH RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WED
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN CWA.
MAINLY LOOKING AT DRY WX WED NIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD
WRN GREENBRIER...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY WITH HARDLY ANY UPPER
SUPPORT.

CRISTOBAL HEADS FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS EWD TO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NRN CWA. UPPER HEIGHTS START BUILDING DURING
THIS PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. FRONTAL LIFT IS WEAK...BUT AS THE
LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE EAST THU-FRI APPEARS ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM.
NOTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
CAP THINGS SOME.

AFTER COOL LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK...TEMPS START TO MODERATE BACK
TO AUGUST VALUES AS LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 MTNS WED-THU NIGHT TO
MID 60S EAST...WHILE HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S WEST TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN
TRANSITION TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE FOG WILL BE AT
KLWB AND KBCB...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REMAINING
TERMINALS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KLWB AND KBCB WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LOWER EXPECTED DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING KICKS IN. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM
THE RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...CF/NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 262347
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH NORTHERN
VIRGINIA IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ONLY A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN MOIST SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
HOWEVER...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING SOUTH OF AREA.
WILL ALSO SEE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CRISTOBAL WILL HAVE NO
FURTHER AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER...THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE HIGHER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...SHOULD LIFT HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER OVER THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WILL START THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF HATTERAS AND SFC
HIGH RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WED
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN CWA.
MAINLY LOOKING AT DRY WX WED NIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD
WRN GREENBRIER...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY WITH HARDLY ANY UPPER
SUPPORT.

CRISTOBAL HEADS FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS EWD TO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NRN CWA. UPPER HEIGHTS START BUILDING DURING
THIS PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. FRONTAL LIFT IS WEAK...BUT AS THE
LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE EAST THU-FRI APPEARS ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM.
NOTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
CAP THINGS SOME.

AFTER COOL LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK...TEMPS START TO MODERATE BACK
TO AUGUST VALUES AS LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 MTNS WED-THU NIGHT TO
MID 60S EAST...WHILE HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S WEST TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN
TRANSITION TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE FOG WILL BE AT
KLWB AND KBCB...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REMAINING
TERMINALS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KLWB AND KBCB WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LOWER EXPECTED DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING KICKS IN. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM
THE RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 262347
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH NORTHERN
VIRGINIA IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ONLY A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN MOIST SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
HOWEVER...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING SOUTH OF AREA.
WILL ALSO SEE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CRISTOBAL WILL HAVE NO
FURTHER AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER...THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE HIGHER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...SHOULD LIFT HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER OVER THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WILL START THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF HATTERAS AND SFC
HIGH RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WED
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN CWA.
MAINLY LOOKING AT DRY WX WED NIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD
WRN GREENBRIER...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY WITH HARDLY ANY UPPER
SUPPORT.

CRISTOBAL HEADS FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS EWD TO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NRN CWA. UPPER HEIGHTS START BUILDING DURING
THIS PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. FRONTAL LIFT IS WEAK...BUT AS THE
LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE EAST THU-FRI APPEARS ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM.
NOTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
CAP THINGS SOME.

AFTER COOL LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK...TEMPS START TO MODERATE BACK
TO AUGUST VALUES AS LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 MTNS WED-THU NIGHT TO
MID 60S EAST...WHILE HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S WEST TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN
TRANSITION TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE FOG WILL BE AT
KLWB AND KBCB...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REMAINING
TERMINALS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KLWB AND KBCB WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LOWER EXPECTED DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING KICKS IN. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM
THE RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH NORTHERN
VIRGINIA IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ONLY A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN MOIST SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
HOWEVER...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING SOUTH OF AREA.
WILL ALSO SEE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CRISTOBAL WILL HAVE NO
FURTHER AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER...THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE HIGHER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...SHOULD LIFT HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER OVER THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WILL START THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF HATTERAS AND SFC
HIGH RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WED
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN CWA.
MAINLY LOOKING AT DRY WX WED NIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD
WRN GREENBRIER...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY WITH HARDLY ANY UPPER
SUPPORT.

CRISTOBAL HEADS FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS EWD TO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NRN CWA. UPPER HEIGHTS START BUILDING DURING
THIS PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. FRONTAL LIFT IS WEAK...BUT AS THE
LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE EAST THU-FRI APPEARS ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM.
NOTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
CAP THINGS SOME.

AFTER COOL LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK...TEMPS START TO MODERATE BACK
TO AUGUST VALUES AS LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 MTNS WED-THU NIGHT TO
MID 60S EAST...WHILE HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S WEST TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO RESULT IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN DAMP SOILS...PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION...PARTICULARLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS. KLWB AND KBCB WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...
WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LOWER EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING
KICKS IN. OTHER TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MINOR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING WELL OF THE COAST. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AND THE HURRICANE WILL NOT OTHERWISE AFFECT THE LOCAL
WEATHER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH NORTHERN
VIRGINIA IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ONLY A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN MOIST SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
HOWEVER...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING SOUTH OF AREA.
WILL ALSO SEE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CRISTOBAL WILL HAVE NO
FURTHER AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER...THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE HIGHER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...SHOULD LIFT HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER OVER THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WILL START THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF HATTERAS AND SFC
HIGH RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WED
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN CWA.
MAINLY LOOKING AT DRY WX WED NIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD
WRN GREENBRIER...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY WITH HARDLY ANY UPPER
SUPPORT.

CRISTOBAL HEADS FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS EWD TO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NRN CWA. UPPER HEIGHTS START BUILDING DURING
THIS PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. FRONTAL LIFT IS WEAK...BUT AS THE
LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE EAST THU-FRI APPEARS ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM.
NOTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
CAP THINGS SOME.

AFTER COOL LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK...TEMPS START TO MODERATE BACK
TO AUGUST VALUES AS LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 MTNS WED-THU NIGHT TO
MID 60S EAST...WHILE HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S WEST TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD
START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR
THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT
STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH
STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS.

LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO RESULT IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN DAMP SOILS...PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION...PARTICULARLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS. KLWB AND KBCB WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...
WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LOWER EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING
KICKS IN. OTHER TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MINOR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING WELL OF THE COAST. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AND THE HURRICANE WILL NOT OTHERWISE AFFECT THE LOCAL
WEATHER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261757
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
157 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAINTAIN FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...AS
WELL AS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS.

AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MAINLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY EAST/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WILL AGAIN HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL STRATO-CU BANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THE AIR TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN MONDAY SO EXPECT A
QUICK EROSION TO ANY EARLY CLOUDS/FOG WITH ONLY SOME CU/CI AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SINK TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AS 5H HEIGHTS START TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE/FRONT FROM THE NW LATE. THIS MAY SPILL SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN OVER THE NW LATE OTRW OVERALL CLEAR PER DRY
AIR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN A BIT OF WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR. THIS AGAIN SHOULD MAKE FOR UNIFORM
HIGHS OF 75-80 WEST AND OVERALL LOW 80S EAST. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO
60 RIDGES...AND SOME 40S DEEPER VALLEYS PENDING FOG LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE...IT WILL ALLOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH CRISTOBAL PULLING MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DO NOT
THINK SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GO HIGHER THAN ISOLATED. IF A FEW ROGUE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG. ON THURSDAY...CRISTOBAL
IS OUT OF THE PICTURE. A STRONG HOT AND HUMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S IN
THE EAST AND M/U 80S IN THE WEST. MODELS DEVELOPING A LEE
TROUGH/REFLECTION OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH AND/OR WASHED OUT COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME A STRONG CAP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
START ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO RESULT IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN DAMP SOILS...PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION...PARTICULARLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS. KLWB AND KBCB WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...
WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LOWER EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING
KICKS IN. OTHER TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MINOR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING WELL OF THE COAST. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AND THE HURRICANE WILL NOT OTHERWISE AFFECT THE LOCAL
WEATHER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JH/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261757
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
157 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAINTAIN FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...AS
WELL AS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS.

AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MAINLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY EAST/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WILL AGAIN HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL STRATO-CU BANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THE AIR TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN MONDAY SO EXPECT A
QUICK EROSION TO ANY EARLY CLOUDS/FOG WITH ONLY SOME CU/CI AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SINK TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AS 5H HEIGHTS START TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE/FRONT FROM THE NW LATE. THIS MAY SPILL SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN OVER THE NW LATE OTRW OVERALL CLEAR PER DRY
AIR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN A BIT OF WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR. THIS AGAIN SHOULD MAKE FOR UNIFORM
HIGHS OF 75-80 WEST AND OVERALL LOW 80S EAST. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO
60 RIDGES...AND SOME 40S DEEPER VALLEYS PENDING FOG LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE...IT WILL ALLOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH CRISTOBAL PULLING MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DO NOT
THINK SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GO HIGHER THAN ISOLATED. IF A FEW ROGUE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG. ON THURSDAY...CRISTOBAL
IS OUT OF THE PICTURE. A STRONG HOT AND HUMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S IN
THE EAST AND M/U 80S IN THE WEST. MODELS DEVELOPING A LEE
TROUGH/REFLECTION OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH AND/OR WASHED OUT COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME A STRONG CAP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
START ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO RESULT IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHEN FACTORING IN DAMP SOILS...PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION...PARTICULARLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS. KLWB AND KBCB WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...
WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LOWER EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING
KICKS IN. OTHER TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MINOR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING WELL OF THE COAST. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AND THE HURRICANE WILL NOT OTHERWISE AFFECT THE LOCAL
WEATHER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JH/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261425
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAINTAIN FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...AS
WELL AS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS.

AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MAINLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY EAST/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WILL AGAIN HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL STRATO-CU BANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THE AIR TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN MONDAY SO EXPECT A
QUICK EROSION TO ANY EARLY CLOUDS/FOG WITH ONLY SOME CU/CI AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SINK TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AS 5H HEIGHTS START TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE/FRONT FROM THE NW LATE. THIS MAY SPILL SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN OVER THE NW LATE OTRW OVERALL CLEAR PER DRY
AIR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN A BIT OF WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR. THIS AGAIN SHOULD MAKE FOR UNIFORM
HIGHS OF 75-80 WEST AND OVERALL LOW 80S EAST. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO
60 RIDGES...AND SOME 40S DEEPER VALLEYS PENDING FOG LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE...IT WILL ALLOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH CRISTOBAL PULLING MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DO NOT
THINK SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GO HIGHER THAN ISOLATED. IF A FEW ROGUE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG. ON THURSDAY...CRISTOBAL
IS OUT OF THE PICTURE. A STRONG HOT AND HUMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S IN
THE EAST AND M/U 80S IN THE WEST. MODELS DEVELOPING A LEE
TROUGH/REFLECTION OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH AND/OR WASHED OUT COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME A STRONG CAP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
START ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RATHER SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THAT OF EARLY MONDAY WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WIDESPREAD VFR ELSW EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR/LIFR AT KLWB/KBCB AND OCNL
MVFR POSSIBLE AT KDAN/KBLF AND PERHAPS KROA. OTRW EXPECT FOG TO
QUICKLY BURN OFF AND SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z/10AM. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER SCATTERED
CU AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH AGAIN MORE PATCHY FOG AROUND
LATE. EAST TO NE WINDS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BUT LESS
THAN 10 KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END
AS WELL AS THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CF/JH/MBS/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261425
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAINTAIN FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...AS
WELL AS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS.

AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MAINLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY EAST/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WILL AGAIN HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL STRATO-CU BANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THE AIR TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN MONDAY SO EXPECT A
QUICK EROSION TO ANY EARLY CLOUDS/FOG WITH ONLY SOME CU/CI AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SINK TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AS 5H HEIGHTS START TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE/FRONT FROM THE NW LATE. THIS MAY SPILL SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN OVER THE NW LATE OTRW OVERALL CLEAR PER DRY
AIR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN A BIT OF WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR. THIS AGAIN SHOULD MAKE FOR UNIFORM
HIGHS OF 75-80 WEST AND OVERALL LOW 80S EAST. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO
60 RIDGES...AND SOME 40S DEEPER VALLEYS PENDING FOG LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE...IT WILL ALLOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH CRISTOBAL PULLING MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DO NOT
THINK SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GO HIGHER THAN ISOLATED. IF A FEW ROGUE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG. ON THURSDAY...CRISTOBAL
IS OUT OF THE PICTURE. A STRONG HOT AND HUMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S IN
THE EAST AND M/U 80S IN THE WEST. MODELS DEVELOPING A LEE
TROUGH/REFLECTION OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH AND/OR WASHED OUT COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME A STRONG CAP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
START ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RATHER SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THAT OF EARLY MONDAY WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WIDESPREAD VFR ELSW EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR/LIFR AT KLWB/KBCB AND OCNL
MVFR POSSIBLE AT KDAN/KBLF AND PERHAPS KROA. OTRW EXPECT FOG TO
QUICKLY BURN OFF AND SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z/10AM. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER SCATTERED
CU AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH AGAIN MORE PATCHY FOG AROUND
LATE. EAST TO NE WINDS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BUT LESS
THAN 10 KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END
AS WELL AS THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CF/JH/MBS/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261103
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MAINLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY EAST/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WILL AGAIN HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL STRATO-CU BANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THE AIR TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN MONDAY SO EXPECT A
QUICK EROSION TO ANY EARLY CLOUDS/FOG WITH ONLY SOME CU/CI AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SINK TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AS 5H HEIGHTS START TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE/FRONT FROM THE NW LATE. THIS MAY SPILL SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN OVER THE NW LATE OTRW OVERALL CLEAR PER DRY
AIR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN A BIT OF WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR. THIS AGAIN SHOULD MAKE FOR UNIFORM
HIGHS OF 75-80 WEST AND OVERALL LOW 80S EAST. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO
60 RIDGES...AND SOME 40S DEEPER VALLEYS PENDING FOG LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE...IT WILL ALLOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH CRISTOBAL PULLING MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DO NOT
THINK SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GO HIGHER THAN ISOLATED. IF A FEW ROGUE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG. ON THURSDAY...CRISTOBAL
IS OUT OF THE PICTURE. A STRONG HOT AND HUMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S IN
THE EAST AND M/U 80S IN THE WEST. MODELS DEVELOPING A LEE
TROUGH/REFLECTION OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH AND/OR WASHED OUT COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME A STRONG CAP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
START ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RATHER SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THAT OF EARLY MONDAY WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WIDESPREAD VFR ELSW EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR/LIFR AT KLWB/KBCB AND OCNL
MVFR POSSIBLE AT KDAN/KBLF AND PERHAPS KROA. OTRW EXPECT FOG TO
QUICKLY BURN OFF AND SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z/10AM. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER SCATTERED
CU AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH AGAIN MORE PATCHY FOG AROUND
LATE. EAST TO NE WINDS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BUT LESS
THAN 10 KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END
AS WELL AS THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CF/JH/MBS/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261103
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MAINLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY EAST/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WILL AGAIN HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL STRATO-CU BANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THE AIR TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN MONDAY SO EXPECT A
QUICK EROSION TO ANY EARLY CLOUDS/FOG WITH ONLY SOME CU/CI AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SINK TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AS 5H HEIGHTS START TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE/FRONT FROM THE NW LATE. THIS MAY SPILL SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN OVER THE NW LATE OTRW OVERALL CLEAR PER DRY
AIR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN A BIT OF WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR. THIS AGAIN SHOULD MAKE FOR UNIFORM
HIGHS OF 75-80 WEST AND OVERALL LOW 80S EAST. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO
60 RIDGES...AND SOME 40S DEEPER VALLEYS PENDING FOG LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE...IT WILL ALLOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH CRISTOBAL PULLING MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DO NOT
THINK SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GO HIGHER THAN ISOLATED. IF A FEW ROGUE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG. ON THURSDAY...CRISTOBAL
IS OUT OF THE PICTURE. A STRONG HOT AND HUMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S IN
THE EAST AND M/U 80S IN THE WEST. MODELS DEVELOPING A LEE
TROUGH/REFLECTION OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH AND/OR WASHED OUT COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME A STRONG CAP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
START ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RATHER SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THAT OF EARLY MONDAY WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WIDESPREAD VFR ELSW EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR/LIFR AT KLWB/KBCB AND OCNL
MVFR POSSIBLE AT KDAN/KBLF AND PERHAPS KROA. OTRW EXPECT FOG TO
QUICKLY BURN OFF AND SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z/10AM. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER SCATTERED
CU AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH AGAIN MORE PATCHY FOG AROUND
LATE. EAST TO NE WINDS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BUT LESS
THAN 10 KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END
AS WELL AS THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CF/JH/MBS/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260625
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MAINLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY EAST/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WILL AGAIN HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL STRATO-CU BANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THE AIR TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN MONDAY SO EXPECT A
QUICK EROSION TO ANY EARLY CLOUDS/FOG WITH ONLY SOME CU/CI AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SINK TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AS 5H HEIGHTS START TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE/FRONT FROM THE NW LATE. THIS MAY SPILL SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN OVER THE NW LATE OTRW OVERALL CLEAR PER DRY
AIR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN A BIT OF WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR. THIS AGAIN SHOULD MAKE FOR UNIFORM
HIGHS OF 75-80 WEST AND OVERALL LOW 80S EAST. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO
60 RIDGES...AND SOME 40S DEEPER VALLEYS PENDING FOG LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE...IT WILL ALLOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH CRISTOBAL PULLING MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DO NOT
THINK SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GO HIGHER THAN ISOLATED. IF A FEW ROGUE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG. ON THURSDAY...CRISTOBAL
IS OUT OF THE PICTURE. A STRONG HOT AND HUMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S IN
THE EAST AND M/U 80S IN THE WEST. MODELS DEVELOPING A LEE
TROUGH/REFLECTION OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH AND/OR WASHED OUT COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME A STRONG CAP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
START ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS A FEW BANDS OF STRATO-CU EARLY AND THEN STRATUS IN SPOTS
LATE. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG
IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK...BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. DO EXPECT KLWB/KBCB TO
SEE A PERIOD OF IFR WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT BOTH LOCATIONS BEFORE
DAWN. ELSW MORE SPOTTY NATURE MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR KBLF WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS MAY FALL ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR IFR.
THUS INCLUDED PREVAILING DENSE FOG IN SPOTS WHERE MORE CERTAIN AND
LEFT TEMPO GROUPS FOR MORE ISOLATED/BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS. AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z/10AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR ALL TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AGAIN MORE PATCHY FOG AROUND LATE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH
MORNING DUE TO MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CF/JH/MBS/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 260625
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MAINLY ANOTHER TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY EAST/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WILL AGAIN HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL STRATO-CU BANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THE AIR TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN MONDAY SO EXPECT A
QUICK EROSION TO ANY EARLY CLOUDS/FOG WITH ONLY SOME CU/CI AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SINK TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AS 5H HEIGHTS START TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE/FRONT FROM THE NW LATE. THIS MAY SPILL SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN OVER THE NW LATE OTRW OVERALL CLEAR PER DRY
AIR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN A BIT OF WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR. THIS AGAIN SHOULD MAKE FOR UNIFORM
HIGHS OF 75-80 WEST AND OVERALL LOW 80S EAST. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO
60 RIDGES...AND SOME 40S DEEPER VALLEYS PENDING FOG LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CRISTOBAL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE...IT WILL ALLOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH CRISTOBAL PULLING MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DO NOT
THINK SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GO HIGHER THAN ISOLATED. IF A FEW ROGUE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG. ON THURSDAY...CRISTOBAL
IS OUT OF THE PICTURE. A STRONG HOT AND HUMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S IN
THE EAST AND M/U 80S IN THE WEST. MODELS DEVELOPING A LEE
TROUGH/REFLECTION OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH AND/OR WASHED OUT COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME A STRONG CAP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
START ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS A FEW BANDS OF STRATO-CU EARLY AND THEN STRATUS IN SPOTS
LATE. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG
IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK...BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. DO EXPECT KLWB/KBCB TO
SEE A PERIOD OF IFR WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT BOTH LOCATIONS BEFORE
DAWN. ELSW MORE SPOTTY NATURE MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR KBLF WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS MAY FALL ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR IFR.
THUS INCLUDED PREVAILING DENSE FOG IN SPOTS WHERE MORE CERTAIN AND
LEFT TEMPO GROUPS FOR MORE ISOLATED/BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS. AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z/10AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR ALL TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AGAIN MORE PATCHY FOG AROUND LATE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH
MORNING DUE TO MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CF/JH/MBS/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260513
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS OUR DOMINANT
LOW LEVEL WEATHER FEATURE. THE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH HAS OFFSET THE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...KEEPING HIGHS TODAY SOME 5 TO
7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET...AND EXPECT TO ENTER THE LATE EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TO SETTLE
ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MAKE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...BRINGING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SOME OF THE COOLEST OUR AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN
QUITE A WHILE. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...MAYBE EVEN LOW 40S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FOG MAY BE DENSE BY
SUNRISE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS MORNING TRAVEL.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 9 AM ACROSS THE REGION AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FOG BANKS LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 11 AM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEY TOO MIX OUT.
MUCH OF THIS FOG WILL TRANSITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED MORE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE EXPECT SLIGHTLY
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET UP
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY...BUT THE MOIST GROUND MAY ALLOW
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
RAISED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT THE MAV SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LIFT
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL DIMINISH DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY AND THEN STRATUS IN SPOTS LATE. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL
BE. DO EXPECT KLWB/KBCB TO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR WITH LIFR POSSIBLE
AT BOTH LOCATIONS BEFORE DAWN. ELSW MORE SPOTTY NATURE MVFR AT
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KBLF WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS MAY FALL
ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR IFR. THUS INCLUDED PREVAILING DENSE FOG IN
SPOTS WHERE MORE CERTAIN AND LEFT TEMPO GROUPS FOR MORE
ISOLATED/BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS. AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WHATEVER FOG
THERE IS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z/10AM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AGAIN MORE PATCHY FOG AROUND
LATE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH
MORNING DUE TO MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CF/JH/MBS/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260513
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS OUR DOMINANT
LOW LEVEL WEATHER FEATURE. THE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH HAS OFFSET THE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...KEEPING HIGHS TODAY SOME 5 TO
7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET...AND EXPECT TO ENTER THE LATE EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TO SETTLE
ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MAKE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...BRINGING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SOME OF THE COOLEST OUR AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN
QUITE A WHILE. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...MAYBE EVEN LOW 40S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FOG MAY BE DENSE BY
SUNRISE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS MORNING TRAVEL.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 9 AM ACROSS THE REGION AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FOG BANKS LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 11 AM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEY TOO MIX OUT.
MUCH OF THIS FOG WILL TRANSITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED MORE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE EXPECT SLIGHTLY
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET UP
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY...BUT THE MOIST GROUND MAY ALLOW
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
RAISED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT THE MAV SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LIFT
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL DIMINISH DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY AND THEN STRATUS IN SPOTS LATE. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL
BE. DO EXPECT KLWB/KBCB TO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR WITH LIFR POSSIBLE
AT BOTH LOCATIONS BEFORE DAWN. ELSW MORE SPOTTY NATURE MVFR AT
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KBLF WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS MAY FALL
ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR IFR. THUS INCLUDED PREVAILING DENSE FOG IN
SPOTS WHERE MORE CERTAIN AND LEFT TEMPO GROUPS FOR MORE
ISOLATED/BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS. AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WHATEVER FOG
THERE IS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z/10AM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AGAIN MORE PATCHY FOG AROUND
LATE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH
MORNING DUE TO MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CF/JH/MBS/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 252345
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS OUR DOMINANT
LOW LEVEL WEATHER FEATURE. THE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH HAS OFFSET THE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...KEEPING HIGHS TODAY SOME 5 TO
7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET...AND EXPECT TO ENTER THE LATE EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TO SETTLE
ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MAKE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...BRINGING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SOME OF THE COOLEST OUR AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN
QUITE A WHILE. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...MAYBE EVEN LOW 40S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FOG MAY BE DENSE BY
SUNRISE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS MORNING TRAVEL.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 9 AM ACROSS THE REGION AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FOG BANKS LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 11 AM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEY TOO MIX OUT.
MUCH OF THIS FOG WILL TRANSITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED MORE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE EXPECT SLIGHTLY
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET UP
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY...BUT THE MOIST GROUND MAY ALLOW
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
RAISED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT THE MAV SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LIFT
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL DIMINISH DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. VIS SAT AND
SURFACE OBS CONFIRM THAT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE...JUST A FEW
CU REMAIN. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND APPROACH
SURFACE DEWPTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL
BE. FOG IS MENTIONED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE GONE BY 14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME
WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE
TO MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER. A
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO
THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CF/MBS/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 252345
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS OUR DOMINANT
LOW LEVEL WEATHER FEATURE. THE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH HAS OFFSET THE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...KEEPING HIGHS TODAY SOME 5 TO
7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET...AND EXPECT TO ENTER THE LATE EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TO SETTLE
ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MAKE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...BRINGING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SOME OF THE COOLEST OUR AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN
QUITE A WHILE. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...MAYBE EVEN LOW 40S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FOG MAY BE DENSE BY
SUNRISE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS MORNING TRAVEL.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 9 AM ACROSS THE REGION AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FOG BANKS LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 11 AM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEY TOO MIX OUT.
MUCH OF THIS FOG WILL TRANSITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED MORE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE EXPECT SLIGHTLY
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET UP
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY...BUT THE MOIST GROUND MAY ALLOW
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
RAISED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT THE MAV SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LIFT
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL DIMINISH DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. VIS SAT AND
SURFACE OBS CONFIRM THAT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE...JUST A FEW
CU REMAIN. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND APPROACH
SURFACE DEWPTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL
BE. FOG IS MENTIONED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE GONE BY 14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME
WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE
TO MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER. A
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO
THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CF/MBS/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 251951
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
351 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS OUR DOMINANT
LOW LEVEL WEATHER FEATURE. THE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH HAS OFFSET THE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...KEEPING HIGHS TODAY SOME 5 TO
7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET...AND EXPECT TO ENTER THE LATE EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TO SETTLE
ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MAKE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...BRINGING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SOME OF THE COOLEST OUR AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN
QUITE A WHILE. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...MAYBE EVEN LOW 40S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FOG MAY BE DENSE BY
SUNRISE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS MORNING TRAVEL.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 9 AM ACROSS THE REGION AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FOG BANKS LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 11 AM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEY TOO MIX OUT.
MUCH OF THIS FOG WILL TRANSITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED MORE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE EXPECT SLIGHTLY
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET UP
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY...BUT THE MOIST GROUND MAY ALLOW
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
RAISED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT THE MAV SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LIFT
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL DIMINISH DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN QUIET WEATHER...LIGHT NE/E WINDS...AND MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

DRY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL INVOLVE
WHICH LOCATIONS SEE FOG/STRATUS AND HOW MUCH. VFR SCT/BKN CIGS
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. BELIEVE LESS SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE WILL CONFINE MOST FOG/STRATUS TO TRADITIONAL AREAS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SC DEVELOPING AS A
PLUME OF HIGHER RH PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...AND CURRENT
CU FIELD SHOWN ON VIS SAT PICS OVER ERN VA VALIDATES THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH VFR CU THEREAFTER.

KLYH ASOS IS FULLY FUNCTIONAL ONCE AGAIN SO TAF IS BACK TO NORMAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME
WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE
TO MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER. A
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO
THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MBS/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251951
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
351 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS OUR DOMINANT
LOW LEVEL WEATHER FEATURE. THE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH HAS OFFSET THE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...KEEPING HIGHS TODAY SOME 5 TO
7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET...AND EXPECT TO ENTER THE LATE EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TO SETTLE
ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MAKE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...BRINGING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SOME OF THE COOLEST OUR AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN
QUITE A WHILE. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...MAYBE EVEN LOW 40S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FOG MAY BE DENSE BY
SUNRISE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS MORNING TRAVEL.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 9 AM ACROSS THE REGION AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FOG BANKS LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 11 AM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEY TOO MIX OUT.
MUCH OF THIS FOG WILL TRANSITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED MORE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE EXPECT SLIGHTLY
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET UP
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY...BUT THE MOIST GROUND MAY ALLOW
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
RAISED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT THE MAV SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LIFT
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL DIMINISH DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

GOING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
AROUND WEST EDGE INTO APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY BE
BROKEN DOWN BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z...AS WELL AS 00Z ECMWF...AND INTERESTINGLY
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE TO DO WITH HOW THIS CURRENT
FEATURE...DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN CALIF...INTERACTS WITH
HURRICANE MARIE MOVING NORTHWEST UP THE BAJA COAST. ECMWF IS SLOWER
BRINGING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER THIS WEEK...AND
ALSO A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US WITH A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS IT FRIDAY...AND ACTUALLY SLIDES A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY
COOLING IT OFF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVING
NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...I DO TEND TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE...WHICH INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIDAY BACK DOOR
FRONT...BUT WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW WITH TEMPS IN CASE
THE GFS IDEA WITH SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PANS OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN POTENTIAL ROLE OF THE PACIFIC
HURRICANE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND FCST IS KEEPING A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BASICALLY JUST AIR MASS WITH WEAK SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TO KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AND INCREASING CHANCES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE UPPER
FORCING AT SOME POINT SPREADING INTO PIEDMONT ON EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THAT FAR OUT NOT READY
TO GO LIKELY...BUT ONCE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS
BETTER KNOWN...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE APPROPRIATE.  SO
COULD HAVE A STORMY LATER HALF OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN QUIET WEATHER...LIGHT NE/E WINDS...AND MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

DRY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL INVOLVE
WHICH LOCATIONS SEE FOG/STRATUS AND HOW MUCH. VFR SCT/BKN CIGS
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. BELIEVE LESS SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE WILL CONFINE MOST FOG/STRATUS TO TRADITIONAL AREAS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SC DEVELOPING AS A
PLUME OF HIGHER RH PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...AND CURRENT
CU FIELD SHOWN ON VIS SAT PICS OVER ERN VA VALIDATES THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH VFR CU THEREAFTER.

KLYH ASOS IS FULLY FUNCTIONAL ONCE AGAIN SO TAF IS BACK TO NORMAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME
WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE
TO MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER. A
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO
THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MBS/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 251754
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST
PART. CONTINUING TO WATCH EARLY MORNING FOG BURN OFF WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CRAIG...BOTETOURT AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THESE TRENDS...INCLUDING LOWERING TEMPERATURES IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH LUNCHTIME. ONCE FOG IS GONE...HEATING WILL KICK IN
QUICKLY AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND IN THESE
AREAS TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS.

AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MSAS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MIXING HELPING PUSH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MAY STILL SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG NW NC RIDGES...AND ACROSS THE VALLEYS EARLY...
OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT UNDER LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE DAY. SINCE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE 85H COOL POOL AND SEE NE
FLOW...EXPECT MAINLY UNIFORM HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 80S BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BRIDGES SOUTH AND ABOUT OVERHEAD LATE. THIS SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
DRY AIR TO ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING MAKING
FOR ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. LATEST MOS
PUSHING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS WITH A FEW 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HOWEVER SINCE HAVE WET GROUND AND FOG POTENTIAL
WILL STAY A BIT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AT THIS POINT BUT
STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH AND SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
HEADS SOUTH...HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES WILL ARRIVE ON INCREASING SW-W
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS BEING CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT MONDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE WASHED OUT BACKDOOR FRONT
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE SETUP POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. COULD AGAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY SW LATE FRIDAY BUT IFFY GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK
LEFTOVER SURFACE FEATURE. A BIT STRONGER 5H TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER SUNDAY PER LATEST 00Z ECMWF AND
SUPPORTED BY THE EARLIER GFS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT WHATS LEFT
OF THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GULF FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS QUITE STRONG TO THE WEST WITH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY ARRIVING AT LEAST OVER THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. TEMPS APPEAR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BUT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN QUIET WEATHER...LIGHT NE/E WINDS...AND MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

DRY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL INVOLVE
WHICH LOCATIONS SEE FOG/STRATUS AND HOW MUCH. VFR SCT/BKN CIGS
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. BELIEVE LESS SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE WILL CONFINE MOST FOG/STRATUS TO TRADITIONAL AREAS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SC DEVELOPING AS A
PLUME OF HIGHER RH PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...AND CURRENT
CU FIELD SHOWN ON VIS SAT PICS OVER ERN VA VALIDATES THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH VFR CU THEREAFTER.

KLYH ASOS IS FULLY FUNCTIONAL ONCE AGAIN SO TAF IS BACK TO NORMAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME
WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE
TO MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER. A
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO
THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
THE ASOS TEMPERATURE AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS MONDAY.
TOWER OBSERVERS ARE AUGMENTING DURING NORMAL SERVICE HOURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/NF
EQUIPMENT...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251754
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST
PART. CONTINUING TO WATCH EARLY MORNING FOG BURN OFF WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CRAIG...BOTETOURT AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THESE TRENDS...INCLUDING LOWERING TEMPERATURES IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH LUNCHTIME. ONCE FOG IS GONE...HEATING WILL KICK IN
QUICKLY AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND IN THESE
AREAS TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS.

AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MSAS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MIXING HELPING PUSH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MAY STILL SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG NW NC RIDGES...AND ACROSS THE VALLEYS EARLY...
OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT UNDER LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE DAY. SINCE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE 85H COOL POOL AND SEE NE
FLOW...EXPECT MAINLY UNIFORM HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 80S BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BRIDGES SOUTH AND ABOUT OVERHEAD LATE. THIS SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
DRY AIR TO ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING MAKING
FOR ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. LATEST MOS
PUSHING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS WITH A FEW 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HOWEVER SINCE HAVE WET GROUND AND FOG POTENTIAL
WILL STAY A BIT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AT THIS POINT BUT
STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH AND SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
HEADS SOUTH...HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES WILL ARRIVE ON INCREASING SW-W
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS BEING CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT MONDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE WASHED OUT BACKDOOR FRONT
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE SETUP POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. COULD AGAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY SW LATE FRIDAY BUT IFFY GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK
LEFTOVER SURFACE FEATURE. A BIT STRONGER 5H TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER SUNDAY PER LATEST 00Z ECMWF AND
SUPPORTED BY THE EARLIER GFS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT WHATS LEFT
OF THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GULF FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS QUITE STRONG TO THE WEST WITH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY ARRIVING AT LEAST OVER THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. TEMPS APPEAR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BUT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN QUIET WEATHER...LIGHT NE/E WINDS...AND MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

DRY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL INVOLVE
WHICH LOCATIONS SEE FOG/STRATUS AND HOW MUCH. VFR SCT/BKN CIGS
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. BELIEVE LESS SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE WILL CONFINE MOST FOG/STRATUS TO TRADITIONAL AREAS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SC DEVELOPING AS A
PLUME OF HIGHER RH PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...AND CURRENT
CU FIELD SHOWN ON VIS SAT PICS OVER ERN VA VALIDATES THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH VFR CU THEREAFTER.

KLYH ASOS IS FULLY FUNCTIONAL ONCE AGAIN SO TAF IS BACK TO NORMAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME
WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE
TO MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER. A
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO
THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR
EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
THE ASOS TEMPERATURE AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS MONDAY.
TOWER OBSERVERS ARE AUGMENTING DURING NORMAL SERVICE HOURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/NF
EQUIPMENT...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 251359
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
959 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST
PART. CONTINUING TO WATCH EARLY MORNING FOG BURN OFF WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CRAIG...BOTETOURT AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THESE TRENDS...INCLUDING LOWERING TEMPERATURES IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH LUNCHTIME. ONCE FOG IS GONE...HEATING WILL KICK IN
QUICKLY AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND IN THESE
AREAS TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS.

AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MSAS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MIXING HELPING PUSH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MAY STILL SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG NW NC RIDGES...AND ACROSS THE VALLEYS EARLY...
OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT UNDER LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE DAY. SINCE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE 85H COOL POOL AND SEE NE
FLOW...EXPECT MAINLY UNIFORM HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 80S BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BRIDGES SOUTH AND ABOUT OVERHEAD LATE. THIS SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
DRY AIR TO ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING MAKING
FOR ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. LATEST MOS
PUSHING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS WITH A FEW 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HOWEVER SINCE HAVE WET GROUND AND FOG POTENTIAL
WILL STAY A BIT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AT THIS POINT BUT
STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH AND SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
HEADS SOUTH...HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES WILL ARRIVE ON INCREASING SW-W
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS BEING CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT MONDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE WASHED OUT BACKDOOR FRONT
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE SETUP POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. COULD AGAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY SW LATE FRIDAY BUT IFFY GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK
LEFTOVER SURFACE FEATURE. A BIT STRONGER 5H TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER SUNDAY PER LATEST 00Z ECMWF AND
SUPPORTED BY THE EARLIER GFS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT WHATS LEFT
OF THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GULF FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS QUITE STRONG TO THE WEST WITH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY ARRIVING AT LEAST OVER THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. TEMPS APPEAR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BUT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT MONDAY...

PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS THE MAIN ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR AT THE TYPICAL SPOTS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB AND
SPOTTY LIFR EVEN AT KROA. EXPECT THESE LOW CONDITIONS TO BE BRIEF
WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 13Z/9AM AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK IN AND LIGHT MIXING DEVELOPS AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH HEATING OF RESIDUAL
SURFACE MOISTURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN
4-6K FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT MAKING FOR
CONTINUED VFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
DENSE FOG SHOULD AGAIN OCCUR WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY AT KLWB...MVFR/IFR
AT KBCB AND PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR AROUND KLYH.

SEE THE EQUIPMENT SECTION FOR INFORMATION CONCERNING THE KLYH
ASOS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE TO
MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
THE ASOS TEMPERATURE AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS MONDAY.
TOWER OBSERVERS ARE AUGMENTING DURING NORMAL SERVICE HOURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251359
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
959 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST
PART. CONTINUING TO WATCH EARLY MORNING FOG BURN OFF WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CRAIG...BOTETOURT AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THESE TRENDS...INCLUDING LOWERING TEMPERATURES IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH LUNCHTIME. ONCE FOG IS GONE...HEATING WILL KICK IN
QUICKLY AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND IN THESE
AREAS TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS.

AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MSAS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MIXING HELPING PUSH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MAY STILL SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG NW NC RIDGES...AND ACROSS THE VALLEYS EARLY...
OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT UNDER LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE DAY. SINCE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE 85H COOL POOL AND SEE NE
FLOW...EXPECT MAINLY UNIFORM HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 80S BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BRIDGES SOUTH AND ABOUT OVERHEAD LATE. THIS SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
DRY AIR TO ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING MAKING
FOR ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. LATEST MOS
PUSHING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS WITH A FEW 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HOWEVER SINCE HAVE WET GROUND AND FOG POTENTIAL
WILL STAY A BIT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AT THIS POINT BUT
STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH AND SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
HEADS SOUTH...HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES WILL ARRIVE ON INCREASING SW-W
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS BEING CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT MONDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE WASHED OUT BACKDOOR FRONT
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE SETUP POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. COULD AGAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY SW LATE FRIDAY BUT IFFY GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK
LEFTOVER SURFACE FEATURE. A BIT STRONGER 5H TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER SUNDAY PER LATEST 00Z ECMWF AND
SUPPORTED BY THE EARLIER GFS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT WHATS LEFT
OF THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GULF FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS QUITE STRONG TO THE WEST WITH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY ARRIVING AT LEAST OVER THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. TEMPS APPEAR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BUT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT MONDAY...

PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS THE MAIN ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR AT THE TYPICAL SPOTS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB AND
SPOTTY LIFR EVEN AT KROA. EXPECT THESE LOW CONDITIONS TO BE BRIEF
WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 13Z/9AM AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK IN AND LIGHT MIXING DEVELOPS AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH HEATING OF RESIDUAL
SURFACE MOISTURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN
4-6K FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT MAKING FOR
CONTINUED VFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
DENSE FOG SHOULD AGAIN OCCUR WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY AT KLWB...MVFR/IFR
AT KBCB AND PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR AROUND KLYH.

SEE THE EQUIPMENT SECTION FOR INFORMATION CONCERNING THE KLYH
ASOS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE TO
MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
THE ASOS TEMPERATURE AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS MONDAY.
TOWER OBSERVERS ARE AUGMENTING DURING NORMAL SERVICE HOURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 251107
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
707 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MSAS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MIXING HELPING PUSH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MAY STILL SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG NW NC RIDGES...AND ACROSS THE VALLEYS EARLY...
OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT UNDER LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE DAY. SINCE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE 85H COOL POOL AND SEE NE
FLOW...EXPECT MAINLY UNIFORM HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 80S BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BRIDGES SOUTH AND ABOUT OVERHEAD LATE. THIS SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
DRY AIR TO ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING MAKING
FOR ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. LATEST MOS
PUSHING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS WITH A FEW 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HOWEVER SINCE HAVE WET GROUND AND FOG POTENTIAL
WILL STAY A BIT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AT THIS POINT BUT
STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH AND SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
HEADS SOUTH...HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES WILL ARRIVE ON INCREASING SW-W
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS BEING CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT MONDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE WASHED OUT BACKDOOR FRONT
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE SETUP POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. COULD AGAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY SW LATE FRIDAY BUT IFFY GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK
LEFTOVER SURFACE FEATURE. A BIT STRONGER 5H TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER SUNDAY PER LATEST 00Z ECMWF AND
SUPPORTED BY THE EARLIER GFS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT WHATS LEFT
OF THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GULF FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS QUITE STRONG TO THE WEST WITH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY ARRIVING AT LEAST OVER THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. TEMPS APPEAR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BUT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT MONDAY...

PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS THE MAIN ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR AT THE TYPICAL SPOTS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB AND
SPOTTY LIFR EVEN AT KROA. EXPECT THESE LOW CONDITIONS TO BE BRIEF
WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 13Z/9AM AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK IN AND LIGHT MIXING DEVELOPS AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH HEATING OF RESIDUAL
SURFACE MOISTURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN
4-6K FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT MAKING FOR
CONTINUED VFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
DENSE FOG SHOULD AGAIN OCCUR WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY AT KLWB...MVFR/IFR
AT KBCB AND PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR AROUND KLYH.

SEE THE EQUIPMENT SECTION FOR INFORMATION CONCERNING THE KLYH
ASOS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE TO
MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
THE ASOS TEMPERATURE AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS MONDAY.
TOWER OBSERVERS ARE AUGMENTING DURING NORMAL SERVICE HOURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251107
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
707 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MSAS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MIXING HELPING PUSH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MAY STILL SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG NW NC RIDGES...AND ACROSS THE VALLEYS EARLY...
OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT UNDER LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE DAY. SINCE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE 85H COOL POOL AND SEE NE
FLOW...EXPECT MAINLY UNIFORM HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 80S BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BRIDGES SOUTH AND ABOUT OVERHEAD LATE. THIS SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
DRY AIR TO ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING MAKING
FOR ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. LATEST MOS
PUSHING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS WITH A FEW 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HOWEVER SINCE HAVE WET GROUND AND FOG POTENTIAL
WILL STAY A BIT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AT THIS POINT BUT
STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH AND SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
HEADS SOUTH...HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES WILL ARRIVE ON INCREASING SW-W
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS BEING CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT MONDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE WASHED OUT BACKDOOR FRONT
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE SETUP POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. COULD AGAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY SW LATE FRIDAY BUT IFFY GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK
LEFTOVER SURFACE FEATURE. A BIT STRONGER 5H TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER SUNDAY PER LATEST 00Z ECMWF AND
SUPPORTED BY THE EARLIER GFS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT WHATS LEFT
OF THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GULF FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS QUITE STRONG TO THE WEST WITH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY ARRIVING AT LEAST OVER THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. TEMPS APPEAR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BUT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT MONDAY...

PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS THE MAIN ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR AT THE TYPICAL SPOTS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB AND
SPOTTY LIFR EVEN AT KROA. EXPECT THESE LOW CONDITIONS TO BE BRIEF
WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 13Z/9AM AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK IN AND LIGHT MIXING DEVELOPS AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH HEATING OF RESIDUAL
SURFACE MOISTURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN
4-6K FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT MAKING FOR
CONTINUED VFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
DENSE FOG SHOULD AGAIN OCCUR WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY AT KLWB...MVFR/IFR
AT KBCB AND PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR AROUND KLYH.

SEE THE EQUIPMENT SECTION FOR INFORMATION CONCERNING THE KLYH
ASOS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE TO
MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
THE ASOS TEMPERATURE AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS MONDAY.
TOWER OBSERVERS ARE AUGMENTING DURING NORMAL SERVICE HOURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 250724
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
324 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MSAS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MIXING HELPING PUSH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MAY STILL SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG NW NC RIDGES...AND ACROSS THE VALLEYS EARLY...
OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT UNDER LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE DAY. SINCE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE 85H COOL POOL AND SEE NE
FLOW...EXPECT MAINLY UNIFORM HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 80S BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BRIDGES SOUTH AND ABOUT OVERHEAD LATE. THIS SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
DRY AIR TO ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING MAKING
FOR ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. LATEST MOS
PUSHING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS WITH A FEW 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HOWEVER SINCE HAVE WET GROUND AND FOG POTENTIAL
WILL STAY A BIT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AT THIS POINT BUT
STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE AUGUST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH AND SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
HEADS SOUTH...HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES WILL ARRIVE ON INCREASING SW-W
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS BEING CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT MONDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE WASHED OUT BACKDOOR FRONT
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE SETUP POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. COULD AGAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY SW LATE FRIDAY BUT IFFY GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK
LEFTOVER SURFACE FEATURE. A BIT STRONGER 5H TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER SUNDAY PER LATEST 00Z ECMWF AND
SUPPORTED BY THE EARLIER GFS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT WHATS LEFT
OF THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GULF FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS QUITE STRONG TO THE WEST WITH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY ARRIVING AT LEAST OVER THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. TEMPS APPEAR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BUT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR STRATO-CU CIGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT EXCLUDING KBLF WHERE
SEEING A SOLID MVFR LAYER STUCK IN PLACE. EXPECTING DRY AIR
PUSHING IN FROM THE NE TO ERODE THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER CIGS
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE FAR WESTERN AREAS
ESPCLY FROM KBLF SOUTH TO KTNB STAY WITH AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR INCLUDING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.

MAIN OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND EASTERLY FLOW WHERE SKIES DO
CLEAR AND WINDS GO CALM. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
SHOULD SEE SOME LATE NIGHT MVFR AT BOTH KLYH/KDAN WITH PERHAPS
LOCAL IFR RIGHT AT SUNRISE. MUCH MORE LOW CONFIDENCE FARTHER WEST
WITH QUICK FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE AT KLWB/KBCB PENDING CLEARING
WHICH MAY COME TOO LATE FOR ONLY POCKETS OF FOG MAINLY AROUND
KLWB. THUS TWEAKED VSBYS UP SOME AT BOTH LOCATIONS AND DELAYED FOG
FORMATION GIVEN CURRENT CANOPY SEEN OFF LATEST IR PICS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER...WITH
VFR FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. EXPECT A CONTINUED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS AND HEATING OF RESIDUAL SURFACE
MOISTURE MAKING FOR A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN 4-6K FEET.

SEE THE EQUIPMENT SECTION FOR INFORMATION CONCERNING THE KLYH
ASOS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE TO
MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
THE ASOS TEMPERATURE AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS MONDAY.
TOWER OBSERVERS ARE AUGMENTING DURING NORMAL SERVICE HOURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 250724
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
324 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MSAS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MIXING HELPING PUSH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MAY STILL SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG NW NC RIDGES...AND ACROSS THE VALLEYS EARLY...
OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT UNDER LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE DAY. SINCE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE 85H COOL POOL AND SEE NE
FLOW...EXPECT MAINLY UNIFORM HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 80S BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BRIDGES SOUTH AND ABOUT OVERHEAD LATE. THIS SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
DRY AIR TO ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING MAKING
FOR ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. LATEST MOS
PUSHING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS WITH A FEW 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HOWEVER SINCE HAVE WET GROUND AND FOG POTENTIAL
WILL STAY A BIT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AT THIS POINT BUT
STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE AUGUST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH AND SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
HEADS SOUTH...HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES WILL ARRIVE ON INCREASING SW-W
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS BEING CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT MONDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE WASHED OUT BACKDOOR FRONT
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE SETUP POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. COULD AGAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY SW LATE FRIDAY BUT IFFY GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK
LEFTOVER SURFACE FEATURE. A BIT STRONGER 5H TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER SUNDAY PER LATEST 00Z ECMWF AND
SUPPORTED BY THE EARLIER GFS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT WHATS LEFT
OF THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GULF FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS QUITE STRONG TO THE WEST WITH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY ARRIVING AT LEAST OVER THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. TEMPS APPEAR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BUT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR STRATO-CU CIGS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT EXCLUDING KBLF WHERE
SEEING A SOLID MVFR LAYER STUCK IN PLACE. EXPECTING DRY AIR
PUSHING IN FROM THE NE TO ERODE THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER CIGS
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE FAR WESTERN AREAS
ESPCLY FROM KBLF SOUTH TO KTNB STAY WITH AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR INCLUDING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.

MAIN OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND EASTERLY FLOW WHERE SKIES DO
CLEAR AND WINDS GO CALM. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
SHOULD SEE SOME LATE NIGHT MVFR AT BOTH KLYH/KDAN WITH PERHAPS
LOCAL IFR RIGHT AT SUNRISE. MUCH MORE LOW CONFIDENCE FARTHER WEST
WITH QUICK FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE AT KLWB/KBCB PENDING CLEARING
WHICH MAY COME TOO LATE FOR ONLY POCKETS OF FOG MAINLY AROUND
KLWB. THUS TWEAKED VSBYS UP SOME AT BOTH LOCATIONS AND DELAYED FOG
FORMATION GIVEN CURRENT CANOPY SEEN OFF LATEST IR PICS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER...WITH
VFR FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. EXPECT A CONTINUED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS AND HEATING OF RESIDUAL SURFACE
MOISTURE MAKING FOR A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN 4-6K FEET.

SEE THE EQUIPMENT SECTION FOR INFORMATION CONCERNING THE KLYH
ASOS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE TO
MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
THE ASOS TEMPERATURE AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS MONDAY.
TOWER OBSERVERS ARE AUGMENTING DURING NORMAL SERVICE HOURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP




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