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000
FXUS61 KRNK 030121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
921 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 910 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS EVENING AND DESPITE DECREASING INSTABILITY APPEARS
PROGRESSION AIDED VIA OUTFLOW AND UPPER DYNAMICS. THIS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE EARLIER NAM OUTPUT AND LATEST LOCAL WRF WHICH TEND
TO PUSH MUCH OF THIS COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA PAST
MIDNIGHT. THIS SEEMS SUPPORTED BY LINGERING HIGHER CAPES JUST EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO HAVE UPPED POPS FURTHER TO
CATEGORICAL/LIKELYS OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PUSHED CHANCES EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. EVENING SOUNDINGS WERE ALSO
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH HIGH DCAPES SO STILL AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT WITH QUICK BURSTS OF RAINFALL RESULTING
IN OVER AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES OR SO. SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTS TO LOW
TEMPS BUT OVERALL 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN THE MUGGY AIR AROUND.

UPDATED DISCUSSION AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION RIDING UP THE DEVELOPING LINE
JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL/HIGH LIKELYS FAR WEST FOR A FEW HOURS AND EXTENDED
HIGHER CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. LINGERING INSTABILITY
AND HIGH DCAPES STILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD. FEW
OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO SEE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. ONE FIRING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS FROM FLOYD SOUTH
TO WILKES...AND OTHER MOVING INTO SE WV...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THE
12Z NAM IS DOING EXCELLENT ATTM WITH HAVING THIS...BUT AT 00Z THIS
EVENING FIRES UP A LINE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR SW VA/SE KY. BY THIS TIME...LEANED
TOWARD A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...AND AT THE SAME TIME
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT ALONG LEE
TROUGH.  UPSTREAM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER SRN OHIO AND ANOTHER
OVER INDIANA WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF US BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WORK SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER POPS OVERNIGHT
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH LACK OF FORCING.

LOWS TONIGHT KEEP THE PERSISTENT MUGGY TEMPS WE HAVE HAD...WITH
MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY...FRONT SHIFTS INTO NC AND WILL SEE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DO LIKEWISE...WHILE NORTH WINDS TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT
OVER THE NRN CWA. HOWEVER 8H FRONT EDGES INTO THE NRN CWA ONLY...SO
KEEPING MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS. FOR POPS
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...MAINLY DRY
NORTH...WITH THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER AND
SOUTH IN THE LOW CHANCE. TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES UP NORTH BUT
STILL WARM ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOWER 80S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STRONG LATE SEASON UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER PA WILL
BE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NC. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE EXISTS. THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL
POLEWARD OF OUR REGION IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG
IMPULSES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST REACHING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA BUT BETTER COVERAGE MORE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8F ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
CLIMATOLOGY...RUNNING MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS FROM
NEAR 60 NW TO NEAR 70 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF VA-NC BORDER. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON-TUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK
TO 12-14C RANGE..YIELDING AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS BEFORE
RIDGE TRIES TO AMPLIFY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VA SITES WITH SOME OF THIS COVERAGE NOW SPREADING EAST OUT TO
AROUND KROA/KLYH ATTM. THINK LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD START TO
DECREASE WESTERN COVERAGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT GIVEN
UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA WILL NEED TO KEEP PREVAILING LOW END VFR/HIGH
END MVFR IN AT KBLF/KLWB THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. COULD EVEN
SEE A PERIOD OF IFR IN STRONGER STORMS EARLY ON. ELSW INCLUDING
MORE VCSH/VCTS OUTSIDE OF KDAN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER
WINDS AND ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT TO SOME
DEGREE PER LATEST GUIDANCE BUT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO WANE IN
INTENSITY. THUS LEAVING IN VCSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS CIGS/VSBYS
START TO LOWER IN FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT THE ISSUE TURNS TOWARD FOG...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND IF IT RAINS NEAR
A TERMINAL. THINK CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS HIGHER AT
KLWB...KBCB AND KBLF...MAINLY MVFR TEMPO IFR.

FOG GOES AWAY AFTER 14Z/10AM...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDED SHRA/TSRA START TO POP UP MAINLY ALONG THE
KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING
COVERAGE QUITE LESS THAN TODAY BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT KDAN WHILE LEAVING OUT ELSW FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY AND MODELS FAVOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF A DAN-TNB LINE. IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE BCB/LWB AREA THU. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED
COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN
FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 030121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
921 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 910 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS EVENING AND DESPITE DECREASING INSTABILITY APPEARS
PROGRESSION AIDED VIA OUTFLOW AND UPPER DYNAMICS. THIS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE EARLIER NAM OUTPUT AND LATEST LOCAL WRF WHICH TEND
TO PUSH MUCH OF THIS COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA PAST
MIDNIGHT. THIS SEEMS SUPPORTED BY LINGERING HIGHER CAPES JUST EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO HAVE UPPED POPS FURTHER TO
CATEGORICAL/LIKELYS OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PUSHED CHANCES EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. EVENING SOUNDINGS WERE ALSO
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH HIGH DCAPES SO STILL AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT WITH QUICK BURSTS OF RAINFALL RESULTING
IN OVER AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES OR SO. SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTS TO LOW
TEMPS BUT OVERALL 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN THE MUGGY AIR AROUND.

UPDATED DISCUSSION AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION RIDING UP THE DEVELOPING LINE
JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL/HIGH LIKELYS FAR WEST FOR A FEW HOURS AND EXTENDED
HIGHER CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. LINGERING INSTABILITY
AND HIGH DCAPES STILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD. FEW
OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO SEE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. ONE FIRING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS FROM FLOYD SOUTH
TO WILKES...AND OTHER MOVING INTO SE WV...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THE
12Z NAM IS DOING EXCELLENT ATTM WITH HAVING THIS...BUT AT 00Z THIS
EVENING FIRES UP A LINE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR SW VA/SE KY. BY THIS TIME...LEANED
TOWARD A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...AND AT THE SAME TIME
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT ALONG LEE
TROUGH.  UPSTREAM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER SRN OHIO AND ANOTHER
OVER INDIANA WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF US BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WORK SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER POPS OVERNIGHT
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH LACK OF FORCING.

LOWS TONIGHT KEEP THE PERSISTENT MUGGY TEMPS WE HAVE HAD...WITH
MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY...FRONT SHIFTS INTO NC AND WILL SEE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DO LIKEWISE...WHILE NORTH WINDS TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT
OVER THE NRN CWA. HOWEVER 8H FRONT EDGES INTO THE NRN CWA ONLY...SO
KEEPING MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS. FOR POPS
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...MAINLY DRY
NORTH...WITH THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER AND
SOUTH IN THE LOW CHANCE. TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES UP NORTH BUT
STILL WARM ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOWER 80S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STRONG LATE SEASON UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER PA WILL
BE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NC. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE EXISTS. THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL
POLEWARD OF OUR REGION IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG
IMPULSES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST REACHING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA BUT BETTER COVERAGE MORE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8F ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
CLIMATOLOGY...RUNNING MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS FROM
NEAR 60 NW TO NEAR 70 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF VA-NC BORDER. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON-TUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK
TO 12-14C RANGE..YIELDING AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS BEFORE
RIDGE TRIES TO AMPLIFY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VA SITES WITH SOME OF THIS COVERAGE NOW SPREADING EAST OUT TO
AROUND KROA/KLYH ATTM. THINK LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD START TO
DECREASE WESTERN COVERAGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT GIVEN
UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA WILL NEED TO KEEP PREVAILING LOW END VFR/HIGH
END MVFR IN AT KBLF/KLWB THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. COULD EVEN
SEE A PERIOD OF IFR IN STRONGER STORMS EARLY ON. ELSW INCLUDING
MORE VCSH/VCTS OUTSIDE OF KDAN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER
WINDS AND ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT TO SOME
DEGREE PER LATEST GUIDANCE BUT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO WANE IN
INTENSITY. THUS LEAVING IN VCSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS CIGS/VSBYS
START TO LOWER IN FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT THE ISSUE TURNS TOWARD FOG...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND IF IT RAINS NEAR
A TERMINAL. THINK CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS HIGHER AT
KLWB...KBCB AND KBLF...MAINLY MVFR TEMPO IFR.

FOG GOES AWAY AFTER 14Z/10AM...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDED SHRA/TSRA START TO POP UP MAINLY ALONG THE
KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING
COVERAGE QUITE LESS THAN TODAY BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT KDAN WHILE LEAVING OUT ELSW FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY AND MODELS FAVOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF A DAN-TNB LINE. IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE BCB/LWB AREA THU. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED
COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN
FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 022354 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION RIDING UP THE DEVELOPING LINE
JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL/HIGH LIKELYS FAR WEST FOR A FEW HOURS AND EXTENDED
HIGHER CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. LINGERING INSTABILITY
AND HIGH DCAPES STILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD. FEW
OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO SEE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. ONE FIRING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS FROM FLOYD SOUTH
TO WILKES...AND OTHER MOVING INTO SE WV...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THE
12Z NAM IS DOING EXCELLENT ATTM WITH HAVING THIS...BUT AT 00Z THIS
EVENING FIRES UP A LINE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR SW VA/SE KY. BY THIS TIME...LEANED
TOWARD A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...AND AT THE SAME TIME
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT ALONG LEE
TROUGH.  UPSTREAM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER SRN OHIO AND ANOTHER
OVER INDIANA WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF US BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WORK SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER POPS OVERNIGHT
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH LACK OF FORCING.

LOWS TONIGHT KEEP THE PERSISTENT MUGGY TEMPS WE HAVE HAD...WITH
MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY...FRONT SHIFTS INTO NC AND WILL SEE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DO LIKEWISE...WHILE NORTH WINDS TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT
OVER THE NRN CWA. HOWEVER 8H FRONT EDGES INTO THE NRN CWA ONLY...SO
KEEPING MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS. FOR POPS
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...MAINLY DRY
NORTH...WITH THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER AND
SOUTH IN THE LOW CHANCE. TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES UP NORTH BUT
STILL WARM ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOWER 80S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STRONG LATE SEASON UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER PA WILL
BE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NC. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE EXISTS. THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL
POLEWARD OF OUR REGION IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG
IMPULSES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST REACHING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA BUT BETTER COVERAGE MORE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8F ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
CLIMATOLOGY...RUNNING MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS FROM
NEAR 60 NW TO NEAR 70 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF VA-NC BORDER. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON-TUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK
TO 12-14C RANGE..YIELDING AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS BEFORE
RIDGE TRIES TO AMPLIFY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VA SITES WITH SOME OF THIS COVERAGE NOW SPREADING EAST OUT TO
AROUND KROA/KLYH ATTM. THINK LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD START TO
DECREASE WESTERN COVERAGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT GIVEN
UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA WILL NEED TO KEEP PREVAILING LOW END VFR/HIGH
END MVFR IN AT KBLF/KLWB THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. COULD EVEN
SEE A PERIOD OF IFR IN STRONGER STORMS EARLY ON. ELSW INCLUDING
MORE VCSH/VCTS OUTSIDE OF KDAN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER
WINDS AND ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT TO SOME
DEGREE PER LATEST GUIDANCE BUT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO WANE IN
INTENSITY. THUS LEAVING IN VCSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS CIGS/VSBYS
START TO LOWER IN FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT THE ISSUE TURNS TOWARD FOG...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND IF IT RAINS NEAR
A TERMINAL. THINK CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS HIGHER AT
KLWB...KBCB AND KBLF...MAINLY MVFR TEMPO IFR.

FOG GOES AWAY AFTER 14Z/10AM...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDED SHRA/TSRA START TO POP UP MAINLY ALONG THE
KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING
COVERAGE QUITE LESS THAN TODAY BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT KDAN WHILE LEAVING OUT ELSW FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY AND MODELS FAVOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF A DAN-TNB LINE. IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE BCB/LWB AREA THU. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED
COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN
FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 022354 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION RIDING UP THE DEVELOPING LINE
JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL/HIGH LIKELYS FAR WEST FOR A FEW HOURS AND EXTENDED
HIGHER CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. LINGERING INSTABILITY
AND HIGH DCAPES STILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD. FEW
OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO SEE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. ONE FIRING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS FROM FLOYD SOUTH
TO WILKES...AND OTHER MOVING INTO SE WV...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THE
12Z NAM IS DOING EXCELLENT ATTM WITH HAVING THIS...BUT AT 00Z THIS
EVENING FIRES UP A LINE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR SW VA/SE KY. BY THIS TIME...LEANED
TOWARD A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...AND AT THE SAME TIME
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT ALONG LEE
TROUGH.  UPSTREAM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER SRN OHIO AND ANOTHER
OVER INDIANA WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF US BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WORK SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER POPS OVERNIGHT
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH LACK OF FORCING.

LOWS TONIGHT KEEP THE PERSISTENT MUGGY TEMPS WE HAVE HAD...WITH
MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY...FRONT SHIFTS INTO NC AND WILL SEE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DO LIKEWISE...WHILE NORTH WINDS TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT
OVER THE NRN CWA. HOWEVER 8H FRONT EDGES INTO THE NRN CWA ONLY...SO
KEEPING MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS. FOR POPS
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...MAINLY DRY
NORTH...WITH THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER AND
SOUTH IN THE LOW CHANCE. TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES UP NORTH BUT
STILL WARM ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOWER 80S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STRONG LATE SEASON UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER PA WILL
BE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NC. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE EXISTS. THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL
POLEWARD OF OUR REGION IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG
IMPULSES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST REACHING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA BUT BETTER COVERAGE MORE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8F ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
CLIMATOLOGY...RUNNING MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS FROM
NEAR 60 NW TO NEAR 70 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF VA-NC BORDER. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON-TUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK
TO 12-14C RANGE..YIELDING AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS BEFORE
RIDGE TRIES TO AMPLIFY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VA SITES WITH SOME OF THIS COVERAGE NOW SPREADING EAST OUT TO
AROUND KROA/KLYH ATTM. THINK LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD START TO
DECREASE WESTERN COVERAGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT GIVEN
UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA WILL NEED TO KEEP PREVAILING LOW END VFR/HIGH
END MVFR IN AT KBLF/KLWB THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. COULD EVEN
SEE A PERIOD OF IFR IN STRONGER STORMS EARLY ON. ELSW INCLUDING
MORE VCSH/VCTS OUTSIDE OF KDAN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER
WINDS AND ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT TO SOME
DEGREE PER LATEST GUIDANCE BUT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO WANE IN
INTENSITY. THUS LEAVING IN VCSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS CIGS/VSBYS
START TO LOWER IN FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT THE ISSUE TURNS TOWARD FOG...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND IF IT RAINS NEAR
A TERMINAL. THINK CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS HIGHER AT
KLWB...KBCB AND KBLF...MAINLY MVFR TEMPO IFR.

FOG GOES AWAY AFTER 14Z/10AM...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDED SHRA/TSRA START TO POP UP MAINLY ALONG THE
KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING
COVERAGE QUITE LESS THAN TODAY BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT KDAN WHILE LEAVING OUT ELSW FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY AND MODELS FAVOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF A DAN-TNB LINE. IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE BCB/LWB AREA THU. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED
COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN
FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 022324
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO SEE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. ONE FIRING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS FROM FLOYD SOUTH
TO WILKES...AND OTHER MOVING INTO SE WV...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THE
12Z NAM IS DOING EXCELLENT ATTM WITH HAVING THIS...BUT AT 00Z THIS
EVENING FIRES UP A LINE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR SW VA/SE KY. BY THIS TIME...LEANED
TOWARD A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...AND AT THE SAME TIME
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT ALONG LEE
TROUGH.  UPSTREAM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER SRN OHIO AND ANOTHER
OVER INDIANA WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF US BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WORK SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER POPS OVERNIGHT
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH LACK OF FORCING.

LOWS TONIGHT KEEP THE PERSISTENT MUGGY TEMPS WE HAVE HAD...WITH
MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY...FRONT SHIFTS INTO NC AND WILL SEE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DO LIKEWISE...WHILE NORTH WINDS TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT
OVER THE NRN CWA. HOWEVER 8H FRONT EDGES INTO THE NRN CWA ONLY...SO
KEEPING MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS. FOR POPS
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...MAINLY DRY
NORTH...WITH THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER AND
SOUTH IN THE LOW CHANCE. TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES UP NORTH BUT
STILL WARM ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOWER 80S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STRONG LATE SEASON UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER PA WILL
BE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NC. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE EXISTS. THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL
POLEWARD OF OUR REGION IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG
IMPULSES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST REACHING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA BUT BETTER COVERAGE MORE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8F ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
CLIMATOLOGY...RUNNING MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS FROM
NEAR 60 NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF VA-NC BORDER. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON-TUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK
TO 12-14C RANGE..YIELDING AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS BEFORE
RIDGE TRIES TO AMPLIFY AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF VA-NC BORDER. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON-TUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK
TO 12-14C RANGE..YIELDING AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS BEFORE
RIDGE TRIES TO AMPLIFY AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VA SITES WITH SOME OF THIS COVERAGE NOW SPREADING EAST OUT TO
AROUND KROA/KLYH ATTM. THINK LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD START TO
DECREASE WESTERN COVERAGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT GIVEN
UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA WILL NEED TO KEEP PREVAILING LOW END VFR/HIGH
END MVFR IN AT KBLF/KLWB THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. COULD EVEN
SEE A PERIOD OF IFR IN STRONGER STORMS EARLY ON. ELSW INCLUDING
MORE VCSH/VCTS OUTSIDE OF KDAN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER
WINDS AND ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT TO SOME
DEGREE PER LATEST GUIDANCE BUT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO WANE IN
INTENSITY. THUS LEAVING IN VCSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS CIGS/VSBYS
START TO LOWER IN FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT THE ISSUE TURNS TOWARD FOG...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND IF IT RAINS NEAR
A TERMINAL. THINK CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS HIGHER AT
KLWB...KBCB AND KBLF...MAINLY MVFR TEMPO IFR.

FOG GOES AWAY AFTER 14Z/10AM...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDED SHRA/TSRA START TO POP UP MAINLY ALONG THE
KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING
COVERAGE QUITE LESS THAN TODAY BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT KDAN WHILE LEAVING OUT ELSW FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY AND MODELS FAVOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF A DAN-TNB LINE. IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE BCB/LWB AREA THU. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED
COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN
FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 022324
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO SEE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. ONE FIRING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS FROM FLOYD SOUTH
TO WILKES...AND OTHER MOVING INTO SE WV...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THE
12Z NAM IS DOING EXCELLENT ATTM WITH HAVING THIS...BUT AT 00Z THIS
EVENING FIRES UP A LINE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR SW VA/SE KY. BY THIS TIME...LEANED
TOWARD A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...AND AT THE SAME TIME
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT ALONG LEE
TROUGH.  UPSTREAM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER SRN OHIO AND ANOTHER
OVER INDIANA WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF US BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WORK SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER POPS OVERNIGHT
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH LACK OF FORCING.

LOWS TONIGHT KEEP THE PERSISTENT MUGGY TEMPS WE HAVE HAD...WITH
MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY...FRONT SHIFTS INTO NC AND WILL SEE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DO LIKEWISE...WHILE NORTH WINDS TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT
OVER THE NRN CWA. HOWEVER 8H FRONT EDGES INTO THE NRN CWA ONLY...SO
KEEPING MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS. FOR POPS
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...MAINLY DRY
NORTH...WITH THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER AND
SOUTH IN THE LOW CHANCE. TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES UP NORTH BUT
STILL WARM ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOWER 80S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STRONG LATE SEASON UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER PA WILL
BE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NC. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE EXISTS. THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL
POLEWARD OF OUR REGION IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG
IMPULSES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST REACHING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA BUT BETTER COVERAGE MORE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8F ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
CLIMATOLOGY...RUNNING MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS FROM
NEAR 60 NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF VA-NC BORDER. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON-TUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK
TO 12-14C RANGE..YIELDING AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS BEFORE
RIDGE TRIES TO AMPLIFY AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF VA-NC BORDER. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON-TUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK
TO 12-14C RANGE..YIELDING AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS BEFORE
RIDGE TRIES TO AMPLIFY AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VA SITES WITH SOME OF THIS COVERAGE NOW SPREADING EAST OUT TO
AROUND KROA/KLYH ATTM. THINK LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD START TO
DECREASE WESTERN COVERAGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT GIVEN
UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA WILL NEED TO KEEP PREVAILING LOW END VFR/HIGH
END MVFR IN AT KBLF/KLWB THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. COULD EVEN
SEE A PERIOD OF IFR IN STRONGER STORMS EARLY ON. ELSW INCLUDING
MORE VCSH/VCTS OUTSIDE OF KDAN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER
WINDS AND ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT TO SOME
DEGREE PER LATEST GUIDANCE BUT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO WANE IN
INTENSITY. THUS LEAVING IN VCSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS CIGS/VSBYS
START TO LOWER IN FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT THE ISSUE TURNS TOWARD FOG...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND IF IT RAINS NEAR
A TERMINAL. THINK CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS HIGHER AT
KLWB...KBCB AND KBLF...MAINLY MVFR TEMPO IFR.

FOG GOES AWAY AFTER 14Z/10AM...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDED SHRA/TSRA START TO POP UP MAINLY ALONG THE
KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING
COVERAGE QUITE LESS THAN TODAY BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT KDAN WHILE LEAVING OUT ELSW FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY AND MODELS FAVOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF A DAN-TNB LINE. IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE BCB/LWB AREA THU. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED
COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN
FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021936
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO SEE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. ONE FIRING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS FROM FLOYD SOUTH
TO WILKES...AND OTHER MOVING INTO SE WV...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THE
12Z NAM IS DOING EXCELLENT ATTM WITH HAVING THIS...BUT AT 00Z THIS
EVENING FIRES UP A LINE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR SW VA/SE KY. BY THIS TIME...LEANED
TOWARD A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...AND AT THE SAME TIME
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT ALONG LEE
TROUGH.  UPSTREAM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER SRN OHIO AND ANOTHER
OVER INDIANA WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF US BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WORK SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER POPS OVERNIGHT
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH LACK OF FORCING.

LOWS TONIGHT KEEP THE PERSISTENT MUGGY TEMPS WE HAVE HAD...WITH
MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY...FRONT SHIFTS INTO NC AND WILL SEE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DO LIKEWISE...WHILE NORTH WINDS TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT
OVER THE NRN CWA. HOWEVER 8H FRONT EDGES INTO THE NRN CWA ONLY...SO
KEEPING MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS. FOR POPS
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...MAINLY DRY
NORTH...WITH THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER AND
SOUTH IN THE LOW CHANCE. TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES UP NORTH BUT
STILL WARM ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOWER 80S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STRONG LATE SEASON UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER PA WILL
BE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NC. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE EXISTS. THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL
POLEWARD OF OUR REGION IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG
IMPULSES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST REACHING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA BUT BETTER COVERAGE MORE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8F ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
CLIMATOLOGY...RUNNING MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS FROM
NEAR 60 NW TO NEAR 70 SE. &&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF VA-NC BORDER. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON-TUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK
TO 12-14C RANGE..YIELDING AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS BEFORE
RIDGE TRIES TO AMPLIFY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE BLF/LWB AREA AROUND 21Z...SO
NOT TAKING THE TEMPO OUT FOR THEM YET. THIS WILL BE WHERE ANY SUB
VFR OCCURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER EAST...ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED SO NOT MENTIONING IN THE TAFS EXCEPT VCTS ROA/BCB.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS ANDS THUNDERSTORMS TO WANE IN THE
AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING IN THE MTNS WITH THE FRONT.

OVERNIGHT THE ISSUE TURNS TOWARD FOG...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND IF IT RAINS NEAR
A TERMINAL. THINK CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS HIGHER AT LWB AND
BCB...MAINLY MVFR TEMPO IFR.

FOG GOES AWAY AFTER 13-14Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED TIL 18Z WED.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY AND MODELS FAVOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF A DAN-TNB LINE. IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE BCB/LWB AREA THU. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE
A DAILY TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF
VFR...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO
LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...KK/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021745
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
145 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION  INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CONVECTION NOW FIRING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC INTO THE
FOOTHILLS OF PATRICK COUNTY VA. MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE
EMPHASIS WILL BE UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SE WV AREA
CLOSER TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN OHIO. SPC HAS NOW
SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER NORTH OF SE WV BUT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS RUNNING A
LITTLE WARMER ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT SO BUMPED HIGHS UP ACROSS
THE EAST A FEW MORE DEGREES TO MID 90S.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SPC HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST FROM
KENTUCKY NORTHWARD TO NEW YORK WITH MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.
BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND MODELS
PUSH CONVECTION TO THE EAST COAST. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD EAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE NAM AND GFS
WERE FASTER COMPARED TO ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

NEAR TERM SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A WEAK WEST-EAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...THAT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES SOUTH OF 40 DEG LAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NEVER REALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES AND INTO SW VA. BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SW
VA...NW NC...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC...SLOWLY WORKING NORTH
TOWARD THE VA BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DRYING WILL NOT PROGRESS AS FAR
SOUTH AS INDICATED WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS FURTHER NORTH SOONER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SW COUNTIES. WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE +18C TO +20C
RANGE...COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY...WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH STILL 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE 70S. WITH THE MINIMAL PWAT STILL RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCH...MIN
TEMPS WILL NOT BE COOLING MUCH EITHER...REMAINING IN THE MUGGY
60S.

FOR THU...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WASHES OUT AND
RETURNS NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS CLOSING IN ON 592DM ACROSS THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS IN
THE +20 TO +21C RANGE. ONLY THE LOWER SUN ANGLE IS SPARING US FROM
MORE WIDESPREAD 90S THIS LATE IN THE SUMMER. AS INDICATED
YESTERDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THU AND FRI WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG TO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTENT PREVAILS. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY...BUT WILL
NOT APPRECIABLY IMPACT THE CWA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THUS...FOR THU
AND FRI...SCATTERED...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE THE RULE...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG-EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
BROAD AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES...BUT SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME AND THE CENTER
OF WHICH WILL RELOCATE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL INSTEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER HIGH FRI-SAT.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS
TN/NC...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE SUCH
THAT...AT A MINIMUM...POPS CANNOT BE REMOVED FROM THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. BY FAR AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS AS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY DRYING FROM
THE NORTH WILL PENETRATE THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EARLIER ADVERTISED POPS BEYOND SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABOVE NORMAL. 850MB
TEMPS SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COULD SURGE BACK TOWARD +20C EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 590DM ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE BLF/LWB AREA AROUND 21Z...SO
NOT TAKING THE TEMPO OUT FOR THEM YET. THIS WILL BE WHERE ANY SUB
VFR OCCURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER EAST...ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED SO NOT MENTIONING IN THE TAFS EXCEPT VCTS ROA/BCB.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS ANDS THUNDERSTORMS TO WANE IN THE
AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING IN THE MTNS WITH THE FRONT.

OVERNIGHT THE ISSUE TURNS TOWARD FOG...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND IF IT RAINS NEAR
A TERMINAL. THINK CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS HIGHER AT LWB AND
BCB...MAINLY MVFR TEMPO IFR.

FOG GOES AWAY AFTER 13-14Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED TIL 18Z WED.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY AND MODELS FAVOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF A DAN-TNB LINE. IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE BCB/LWB AREA THU. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE
A DAILY TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF
VFR...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO
LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...KK/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021745
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
145 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION  INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CONVECTION NOW FIRING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC INTO THE
FOOTHILLS OF PATRICK COUNTY VA. MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE
EMPHASIS WILL BE UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SE WV AREA
CLOSER TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN OHIO. SPC HAS NOW
SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER NORTH OF SE WV BUT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS RUNNING A
LITTLE WARMER ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT SO BUMPED HIGHS UP ACROSS
THE EAST A FEW MORE DEGREES TO MID 90S.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SPC HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST FROM
KENTUCKY NORTHWARD TO NEW YORK WITH MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.
BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND MODELS
PUSH CONVECTION TO THE EAST COAST. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD EAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE NAM AND GFS
WERE FASTER COMPARED TO ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

NEAR TERM SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A WEAK WEST-EAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...THAT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES SOUTH OF 40 DEG LAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NEVER REALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES AND INTO SW VA. BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SW
VA...NW NC...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC...SLOWLY WORKING NORTH
TOWARD THE VA BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DRYING WILL NOT PROGRESS AS FAR
SOUTH AS INDICATED WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS FURTHER NORTH SOONER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SW COUNTIES. WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE +18C TO +20C
RANGE...COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY...WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH STILL 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE 70S. WITH THE MINIMAL PWAT STILL RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCH...MIN
TEMPS WILL NOT BE COOLING MUCH EITHER...REMAINING IN THE MUGGY
60S.

FOR THU...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WASHES OUT AND
RETURNS NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS CLOSING IN ON 592DM ACROSS THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS IN
THE +20 TO +21C RANGE. ONLY THE LOWER SUN ANGLE IS SPARING US FROM
MORE WIDESPREAD 90S THIS LATE IN THE SUMMER. AS INDICATED
YESTERDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THU AND FRI WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG TO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTENT PREVAILS. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY...BUT WILL
NOT APPRECIABLY IMPACT THE CWA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THUS...FOR THU
AND FRI...SCATTERED...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE THE RULE...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG-EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
BROAD AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES...BUT SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME AND THE CENTER
OF WHICH WILL RELOCATE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL INSTEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER HIGH FRI-SAT.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS
TN/NC...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE SUCH
THAT...AT A MINIMUM...POPS CANNOT BE REMOVED FROM THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. BY FAR AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS AS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY DRYING FROM
THE NORTH WILL PENETRATE THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EARLIER ADVERTISED POPS BEYOND SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABOVE NORMAL. 850MB
TEMPS SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COULD SURGE BACK TOWARD +20C EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 590DM ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE BLF/LWB AREA AROUND 21Z...SO
NOT TAKING THE TEMPO OUT FOR THEM YET. THIS WILL BE WHERE ANY SUB
VFR OCCURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER EAST...ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED SO NOT MENTIONING IN THE TAFS EXCEPT VCTS ROA/BCB.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS ANDS THUNDERSTORMS TO WANE IN THE
AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING IN THE MTNS WITH THE FRONT.

OVERNIGHT THE ISSUE TURNS TOWARD FOG...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND IF IT RAINS NEAR
A TERMINAL. THINK CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS HIGHER AT LWB AND
BCB...MAINLY MVFR TEMPO IFR.

FOG GOES AWAY AFTER 13-14Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED TIL 18Z WED.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY AND MODELS FAVOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF A DAN-TNB LINE. IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE BCB/LWB AREA THU. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE
A DAILY TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF
VFR...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO
LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...KK/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 021505
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1105 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION  INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT TUESDAY...

GETTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING AND HAVE UPPED THESE VALUES
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS
NRN KY WITH ONE VORT LOBE WITH MAIN AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS SE IND TO
SOUTH OF CVG. THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
SUNSHINE. WILL NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE MTNS
OF WV. UNTIL THEN INCREASE IN CU FIELD OVER THE MTNS...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 1 PM...MAINLY ISOLATED UNTIL
AFTER 4 PM. HIGH TEMP FORECAST ON TRACK LOOKING AT MID 80S WEST TO
LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 TOWARD
FARMVILLE/CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SPC HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST FROM
KENTUCKY NORTHWARD TO NEW YORK WITH MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.
BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND MODELS
PUSH CONVECTION TO THE EAST COAST. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD EAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE NAM AND GFS
WERE FASTER COMPARED TO ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

NEAR TERM SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A WEAK WEST-EAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...THAT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES SOUTH OF 40 DEG LAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NEVER REALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES AND INTO SW VA. BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SW
VA...NW NC...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC...SLOWLY WORKING NORTH
TOWARD THE VA BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DRYING WILL NOT PROGRESS AS FAR
SOUTH AS INDICATED WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS FURTHER NORTH SOONER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SW COUNTIES. WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE +18C TO +20C
RANGE...COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY...WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH STILL 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE 70S. WITH THE MINIMAL PWAT STILL RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCH...MIN
TEMPS WILL NOT BE COOLING MUCH EITHER...REMAINING IN THE MUGGY
60S.

FOR THU...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WASHES OUT AND
RETURNS NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS CLOSING IN ON 592DM ACROSS THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS IN
THE +20 TO +21C RANGE. ONLY THE LOWER SUN ANGLE IS SPARING US FROM
MORE WIDESPREAD 90S THIS LATE IN THE SUMMER. AS INDICATED
YESTERDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THU AND FRI WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG TO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTENT PREVAILS. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY...BUT WILL
NOT APPRECIABLY IMPACT THE CWA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THUS...FOR THU
AND FRI...SCATTERED...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE THE RULE...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG-EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
BROAD AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES...BUT SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME AND THE CENTER
OF WHICH WILL RELOCATE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL INSTEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER HIGH FRI-SAT.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS
TN/NC...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE SUCH
THAT...AT A MINIMUM...POPS CANNOT BE REMOVED FROM THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. BY FAR AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS AS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY DRYING FROM
THE NORTH WILL PENETRATE THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EARLIER ADVERTISED POPS BEYOND SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABOVE NORMAL. 850MB
TEMPS SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COULD SURGE BACK TOWARD +20C EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 590DM ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT TUESDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME...EXPECT BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG CELLS...TO REACH EASTERN WV
INCLUDING BLF/LWB TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A PREVAILING GROUP AT
THIS POINT. FURTHER EAST...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATER
AND EVEN LESS CERTAIN. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR PROB30 OR
VCTS WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS. SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OR LINGERING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
ALSO UNCERTAIN AS MUCH POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN
OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AND ALSO CLEARING...IF ANY OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODELS SHOW DENSE MID CLOUDS REMAINING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIG AFT 06Z BLF-LWB. WINDS...MOSTLY SW-WSW 7-10KTS
WITH LOW END GUSTS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAYTIME.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 021505
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1105 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION  INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT TUESDAY...

GETTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING AND HAVE UPPED THESE VALUES
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS
NRN KY WITH ONE VORT LOBE WITH MAIN AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS SE IND TO
SOUTH OF CVG. THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
SUNSHINE. WILL NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE MTNS
OF WV. UNTIL THEN INCREASE IN CU FIELD OVER THE MTNS...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 1 PM...MAINLY ISOLATED UNTIL
AFTER 4 PM. HIGH TEMP FORECAST ON TRACK LOOKING AT MID 80S WEST TO
LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 TOWARD
FARMVILLE/CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SPC HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST FROM
KENTUCKY NORTHWARD TO NEW YORK WITH MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.
BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND MODELS
PUSH CONVECTION TO THE EAST COAST. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD EAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE NAM AND GFS
WERE FASTER COMPARED TO ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

NEAR TERM SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A WEAK WEST-EAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...THAT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES SOUTH OF 40 DEG LAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NEVER REALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES AND INTO SW VA. BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SW
VA...NW NC...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC...SLOWLY WORKING NORTH
TOWARD THE VA BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DRYING WILL NOT PROGRESS AS FAR
SOUTH AS INDICATED WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS FURTHER NORTH SOONER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SW COUNTIES. WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE +18C TO +20C
RANGE...COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY...WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH STILL 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE 70S. WITH THE MINIMAL PWAT STILL RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCH...MIN
TEMPS WILL NOT BE COOLING MUCH EITHER...REMAINING IN THE MUGGY
60S.

FOR THU...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WASHES OUT AND
RETURNS NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS CLOSING IN ON 592DM ACROSS THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS IN
THE +20 TO +21C RANGE. ONLY THE LOWER SUN ANGLE IS SPARING US FROM
MORE WIDESPREAD 90S THIS LATE IN THE SUMMER. AS INDICATED
YESTERDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THU AND FRI WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG TO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTENT PREVAILS. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY...BUT WILL
NOT APPRECIABLY IMPACT THE CWA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THUS...FOR THU
AND FRI...SCATTERED...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE THE RULE...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG-EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
BROAD AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES...BUT SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME AND THE CENTER
OF WHICH WILL RELOCATE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL INSTEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER HIGH FRI-SAT.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS
TN/NC...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE SUCH
THAT...AT A MINIMUM...POPS CANNOT BE REMOVED FROM THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. BY FAR AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS AS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY DRYING FROM
THE NORTH WILL PENETRATE THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EARLIER ADVERTISED POPS BEYOND SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABOVE NORMAL. 850MB
TEMPS SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COULD SURGE BACK TOWARD +20C EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 590DM ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT TUESDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME...EXPECT BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG CELLS...TO REACH EASTERN WV
INCLUDING BLF/LWB TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A PREVAILING GROUP AT
THIS POINT. FURTHER EAST...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATER
AND EVEN LESS CERTAIN. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR PROB30 OR
VCTS WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS. SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OR LINGERING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
ALSO UNCERTAIN AS MUCH POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN
OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AND ALSO CLEARING...IF ANY OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODELS SHOW DENSE MID CLOUDS REMAINING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIG AFT 06Z BLF-LWB. WINDS...MOSTLY SW-WSW 7-10KTS
WITH LOW END GUSTS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAYTIME.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
HRRR...RAP3 AND NAM SHOWED A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PLACED SOME LIGHT
POPS IN THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE AND SOME DECENT
CAPE. TRIMMED BACK THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT GOOD SUBSIDENCE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT WILL EDGE CLOSER
TOWARD THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WEAK SHEAR AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION FOR
OUR AREA. THE SWODY1 HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO
OUR WEST FROM KENTUCKY NORTHWARD TO NORTH YORK WITH MAIN THREAT
DAMAGING WINDS. BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE EAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND MODELS PUSH CONVECTION
TO THE EAST COAST. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE NAM AND GFS WERE FASTER COMPARED TO
ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

NEAR TERM SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A WEAK WEST-EAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...THAT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES SOUTH OF 40 DEG LAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NEVER REALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES AND INTO SW VA. BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SW
VA...NW NC...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC...SLOWLY WORKING NORTH
TOWARD THE VA BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DRYING WILL NOT PROGRESS AS FAR
SOUTH AS INDICATED WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS FURTHER NORTH SOONER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SW COUNTIES. WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE +18C TO +20C
RANGE...COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY...WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH STILL 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE 70S. WITH THE MINIMAL PWAT STILL RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCH...MIN
TEMPS WILL NOT BE COOLING MUCH EITHER...REMAINING IN THE MUGGY
60S.

FOR THU...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WASHES OUT AND
RETURNS NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS CLOSING IN ON 592DM ACROSS THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS IN
THE +20 TO +21C RANGE. ONLY THE LOWER SUN ANGLE IS SPARING US FROM
MORE WIDESPREAD 90S THIS LATE IN THE SUMMER. AS INDICATED
YESTERDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THU AND FRI WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG TO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTENT PREVAILS. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY...BUT WILL
NOT APPRECIABLY IMPACT THE CWA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THUS...FOR THU
AND FRI...SCATTERED...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE THE RULE...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG-EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
BROAD AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES...BUT SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME AND THE CENTER
OF WHICH WILL RELOCATE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL INSTEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER HIGH FRI-SAT.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS
TN/NC...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE SUCH
THAT...AT A MINIMUM...POPS CANNOT BE REMOVED FROM THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. BY FAR AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS AS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY DRYING FROM
THE NORTH WILL PENETRATE THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EARLIER ADVERTISED POPS BEYOND SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABOVE NORMAL. 850MB
TEMPS SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COULD SURGE BACK TOWARD +20C EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 590DM ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT TUESDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME...EXPECT BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG CELLS...TO REACH EASTERN WV
INCLUDING BLF/LWB TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A PREVAILING GROUP AT
THIS POINT. FURTHER EAST...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATER
AND EVEN LESS CERTAIN. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR PROB30 OR
VCTS WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS. SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OR LINGERING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
ALSO UNCERTAIN AS MUCH POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN
OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AND ALSO CLEARING...IF ANY OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODELS SHOW DENSE MID CLOUDS REMAINING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIG AFT 06Z BLF-LWB. WINDS...MOSTLY SW-WSW 7-10KTS
WITH LOW END GUSTS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAYTIME.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 021142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
HRRR...RAP3 AND NAM SHOWED A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PLACED SOME LIGHT
POPS IN THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE AND SOME DECENT
CAPE. TRIMMED BACK THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT GOOD SUBSIDENCE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT WILL EDGE CLOSER
TOWARD THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WEAK SHEAR AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION FOR
OUR AREA. THE SWODY1 HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO
OUR WEST FROM KENTUCKY NORTHWARD TO NORTH YORK WITH MAIN THREAT
DAMAGING WINDS. BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE EAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND MODELS PUSH CONVECTION
TO THE EAST COAST. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE NAM AND GFS WERE FASTER COMPARED TO
ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

NEAR TERM SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A WEAK WEST-EAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...THAT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES SOUTH OF 40 DEG LAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NEVER REALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES AND INTO SW VA. BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SW
VA...NW NC...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC...SLOWLY WORKING NORTH
TOWARD THE VA BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DRYING WILL NOT PROGRESS AS FAR
SOUTH AS INDICATED WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS FURTHER NORTH SOONER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SW COUNTIES. WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE +18C TO +20C
RANGE...COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY...WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH STILL 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE 70S. WITH THE MINIMAL PWAT STILL RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCH...MIN
TEMPS WILL NOT BE COOLING MUCH EITHER...REMAINING IN THE MUGGY
60S.

FOR THU...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WASHES OUT AND
RETURNS NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS CLOSING IN ON 592DM ACROSS THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS IN
THE +20 TO +21C RANGE. ONLY THE LOWER SUN ANGLE IS SPARING US FROM
MORE WIDESPREAD 90S THIS LATE IN THE SUMMER. AS INDICATED
YESTERDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THU AND FRI WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG TO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTENT PREVAILS. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY...BUT WILL
NOT APPRECIABLY IMPACT THE CWA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THUS...FOR THU
AND FRI...SCATTERED...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE THE RULE...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG-EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
BROAD AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES...BUT SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME AND THE CENTER
OF WHICH WILL RELOCATE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL INSTEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER HIGH FRI-SAT.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS
TN/NC...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE SUCH
THAT...AT A MINIMUM...POPS CANNOT BE REMOVED FROM THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. BY FAR AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS AS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY DRYING FROM
THE NORTH WILL PENETRATE THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EARLIER ADVERTISED POPS BEYOND SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABOVE NORMAL. 850MB
TEMPS SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COULD SURGE BACK TOWARD +20C EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 590DM ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT TUESDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME...EXPECT BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG CELLS...TO REACH EASTERN WV
INCLUDING BLF/LWB TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A PREVAILING GROUP AT
THIS POINT. FURTHER EAST...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATER
AND EVEN LESS CERTAIN. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR PROB30 OR
VCTS WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS. SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OR LINGERING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
ALSO UNCERTAIN AS MUCH POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN
OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AND ALSO CLEARING...IF ANY OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODELS SHOW DENSE MID CLOUDS REMAINING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIG AFT 06Z BLF-LWB. WINDS...MOSTLY SW-WSW 7-10KTS
WITH LOW END GUSTS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAYTIME.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020853
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
453 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
HRRR...RAP3 AND NAM SHOWED A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PLACED SOME LIGHT
POPS IN THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE AND SOME DECENT
CAPE. TRIMMED BACK THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT GOOD SUBSIDENCE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT WILL EDGE CLOSER
TOWARD THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WEAK SHEAR AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION FOR
OUR AREA. THE SWODY1 HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO
OUR WEST FROM KENTUCKY NORTHWARD TO NORTH YORK WITH MAIN THREAT
DAMAGING WINDS. BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE EAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND MODELS PUSH CONVECTION
TO THE EAST COAST. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE NAM AND GFS WERE FASTER COMPARED TO
ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

NEAR TERM SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A WEAK WEST-EAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...THAT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES SOUTH OF 40 DEG LAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NEVER REALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES AND INTO SW VA. BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SW
VA...NW NC...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC...SLOWLY WORKING NORTH
TOWARD THE VA BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DRYING WILL NOT PROGRESS AS FAR
SOUTH AS INDICATED WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS FURTHER NORTH SOONER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SW COUNTIES. WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE +18C TO +20C
RANGE...COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY...WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH STILL 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE 70S. WITH THE MINIMAL PWAT STILL RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCH...MIN
TEMPS WILL NOT BE COOLING MUCH EITHER...REMAINING IN THE MUGGY
60S.

FOR THU...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WASHES OUT AND
RETURNS NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS CLOSING IN ON 592DM ACROSS THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS IN
THE +20 TO +21C RANGE. ONLY THE LOWER SUN ANGLE IS SPARING US FROM
MORE WIDESPREAD 90S THIS LATE IN THE SUMMER. AS INDICATED
YESTERDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THU AND FRI WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG TO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTENT PREVAILS. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY...BUT WILL
NOT APPRECIABLY IMPACT THE CWA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THUS...FOR THU
AND FRI...SCATTERED...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE THE RULE...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG-EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
BROAD AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES...BUT SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME AND THE CENTER
OF WHICH WILL RELOCATE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL INSTEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER HIGH FRI-SAT.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS
TN/NC...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE SUCH
THAT...AT A MINIMUM...POPS CANNOT BE REMOVED FROM THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. BY FAR AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS AS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY DRYING FROM
THE NORTH WILL PENETRATE THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EARLIER ADVERTISED POPS BEYOND SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABOVE NORMAL. 850MB
TEMPS SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COULD SURGE BACK TOWARD +20C EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 590DM ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT KLWB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE CROSSING THE RIDGES SO LEAVING OUT
MENTION. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF VALLEY
FOG AT KLWB/KBCB ALTHOUGH FORECAST FOG STABILITY VALUES SHOW ONLY
SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A MORE ORGANIZED BAND DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH THE
LEADING PRE- FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDING A VCTS MENTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LATE
AT KBCB. OTRW EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR AFTER EARLY MID DECK ERODES AND
SCATTERED- BROKEN CU FIELDS BETWEEN 4-6K FT TAKE SHAPE WITH
HEATING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...JH/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020853
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
453 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
HRRR...RAP3 AND NAM SHOWED A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PLACED SOME LIGHT
POPS IN THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE AND SOME DECENT
CAPE. TRIMMED BACK THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT GOOD SUBSIDENCE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT WILL EDGE CLOSER
TOWARD THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WEAK SHEAR AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION FOR
OUR AREA. THE SWODY1 HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO
OUR WEST FROM KENTUCKY NORTHWARD TO NORTH YORK WITH MAIN THREAT
DAMAGING WINDS. BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE EAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND MODELS PUSH CONVECTION
TO THE EAST COAST. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE NAM AND GFS WERE FASTER COMPARED TO
ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

NEAR TERM SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A WEAK WEST-EAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...THAT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES SOUTH OF 40 DEG LAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NEVER REALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES AND INTO SW VA. BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SW
VA...NW NC...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC...SLOWLY WORKING NORTH
TOWARD THE VA BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DRYING WILL NOT PROGRESS AS FAR
SOUTH AS INDICATED WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS FURTHER NORTH SOONER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SW COUNTIES. WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE +18C TO +20C
RANGE...COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY...WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH STILL 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE 70S. WITH THE MINIMAL PWAT STILL RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCH...MIN
TEMPS WILL NOT BE COOLING MUCH EITHER...REMAINING IN THE MUGGY
60S.

FOR THU...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WASHES OUT AND
RETURNS NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS CLOSING IN ON 592DM ACROSS THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS IN
THE +20 TO +21C RANGE. ONLY THE LOWER SUN ANGLE IS SPARING US FROM
MORE WIDESPREAD 90S THIS LATE IN THE SUMMER. AS INDICATED
YESTERDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THU AND FRI WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG TO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTENT PREVAILS. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY...BUT WILL
NOT APPRECIABLY IMPACT THE CWA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THUS...FOR THU
AND FRI...SCATTERED...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE THE RULE...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG-EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
BROAD AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES...BUT SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME AND THE CENTER
OF WHICH WILL RELOCATE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL INSTEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER HIGH FRI-SAT.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS
TN/NC...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE SUCH
THAT...AT A MINIMUM...POPS CANNOT BE REMOVED FROM THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. BY FAR AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS AS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY DRYING FROM
THE NORTH WILL PENETRATE THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EARLIER ADVERTISED POPS BEYOND SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABOVE NORMAL. 850MB
TEMPS SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COULD SURGE BACK TOWARD +20C EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 590DM ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT KLWB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE CROSSING THE RIDGES SO LEAVING OUT
MENTION. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF VALLEY
FOG AT KLWB/KBCB ALTHOUGH FORECAST FOG STABILITY VALUES SHOW ONLY
SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A MORE ORGANIZED BAND DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH THE
LEADING PRE- FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDING A VCTS MENTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LATE
AT KBCB. OTRW EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR AFTER EARLY MID DECK ERODES AND
SCATTERED- BROKEN CU FIELDS BETWEEN 4-6K FT TAKE SHAPE WITH
HEATING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...JH/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 020549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MUCH
OF TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS
MORNING.

AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...

OTHER FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED THIS EVENING AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
WEAK CAPPING ALOFT WITHIN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS ALONG
WITH LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY QUIET
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND PERHAPS OUT
EAST. HOWEVER WITH THE LATEST HRRR TRACKING THE CURRENT ISOLATED
COVERAGE OVER GREENBRIER EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH SINCE
HEADING INTO SOME DECENT LEFTOVER CAPE DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE SOME LOW CHANCES FAR NW LATE FOR ACTIVITY
COMING IN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK. OTRW FEW
CHANGES OTHER THAN TO INCLUDE A BIT OF FOG AND BUMP UP TEMPS IN
SPOTS GIVEN SUCH A MUGGY OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT KLWB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE CROSSING THE RIDGES SO LEAVING OUT
MENTION. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF VALLEY
FOG AT KLWB/KBCB ALTHOUGH FORECAST FOG STABILITY VALUES SHOW ONLY
SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A MORE ORGANIZED BAND DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH THE
LEADING PRE- FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDING A VCTS MENTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LATE
AT KBCB. OTRW EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR AFTER EARLY MID DECK ERODES AND
SCATTERED- BROKEN CU FIELDS BETWEEN 4-6K FT TAKE SHAPE WITH
HEATING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 020549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MUCH
OF TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS
MORNING.

AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...

OTHER FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED THIS EVENING AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
WEAK CAPPING ALOFT WITHIN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS ALONG
WITH LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY QUIET
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND PERHAPS OUT
EAST. HOWEVER WITH THE LATEST HRRR TRACKING THE CURRENT ISOLATED
COVERAGE OVER GREENBRIER EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH SINCE
HEADING INTO SOME DECENT LEFTOVER CAPE DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE SOME LOW CHANCES FAR NW LATE FOR ACTIVITY
COMING IN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK. OTRW FEW
CHANGES OTHER THAN TO INCLUDE A BIT OF FOG AND BUMP UP TEMPS IN
SPOTS GIVEN SUCH A MUGGY OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT KLWB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE CROSSING THE RIDGES SO LEAVING OUT
MENTION. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF VALLEY
FOG AT KLWB/KBCB ALTHOUGH FORECAST FOG STABILITY VALUES SHOW ONLY
SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A MORE ORGANIZED BAND DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH THE
LEADING PRE- FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDING A VCTS MENTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LATE
AT KBCB. OTRW EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR AFTER EARLY MID DECK ERODES AND
SCATTERED- BROKEN CU FIELDS BETWEEN 4-6K FT TAKE SHAPE WITH
HEATING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020137
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
937 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MUCH
OF TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...

OTHER FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED THIS EVENING AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
WEAK CAPPING ALOFT WITHIN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS ALONG
WITH LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY QUIET
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND PERHAPS OUT
EAST. HOWEVER WITH THE LATEST HRRR TRACKING THE CURRENT ISOLATED
COVERAGE OVER GREENBRIER EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH SINCE
HEADING INTO SOME DECENT LEFTOVER CAPE DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE SOME LOW CHANCES FAR NW LATE FOR ACTIVITY
COMING IN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK. OTRW FEW
CHANGES OTHER THAN TO INCLUDE A BIT OF FOG AND BUMP UP TEMPS IN
SPOTS GIVEN SUCH A MUGGY OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT
KLWB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE
CROSSING THE RIDGES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION WITH JUST A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AROUND. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO
INHIBIT MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR AT
KLYH/KDAN THAT SHOULD STAY EAST OF ANY UPSTREAM MID DECK THAT MAY
ARRIVE OVER THE WEST TOWARD DAWN. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF
VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANY ADDED
CLOUDS PUSH EAST. THUS WENT WITH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT
KLWB/KBCB FOR FOG ALTHOUGH FORECAST FOG STABILITY VALUES SHOW ONLY
SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAY SEE A
MORE ORGANIZED BAND DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH THE LEADING PRE-
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDING A VCTS MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AT KBCB.
OTRW EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR AFTER EARLY MID DECK ERODES AND
SCATTERED-BROKEN CU FIELDS BETWEEN 4-6K FT TAKE SHAPE WITH
HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 012310
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MUCH
OF TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND HEATING WHICH THERE IS
PLENTY. WORKING AGAINST IT...IS THE LOW LVL WEST WIND...WHICH IS
PREVENTING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WILL STILL SEE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE MTNS WHICH COULD KEEP THE ISOLATED THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO
EARLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER AS OPPOSED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS MUGGY SO LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT
KLWB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE
CROSSING THE RIDGES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION WITH JUST A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AROUND. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO
INHIBIT MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR AT
KLYH/KDAN THAT SHOULD STAY EAST OF ANY UPSTREAM MID DECK THAT MAY
ARRIVE OVER THE WEST TOWARD DAWN. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF
VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANY ADDED
CLOUDS PUSH EAST. THUS WENT WITH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT
KLWB/KBCB FOR FOG ALTHOUGH FORECAST FOG STABILITY VALUES SHOW ONLY
SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAY SEE A
MORE ORGANIZED BAND DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH THE LEADING PRE-
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDING A VCTS MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AT KBCB.
OTRW EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR AFTER EARLY MID DECK ERODES AND
SCATTERED-BROKEN CU FIELDS BETWEEN 4-6K FT TAKE SHAPE WITH
HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 012310
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MUCH
OF TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND HEATING WHICH THERE IS
PLENTY. WORKING AGAINST IT...IS THE LOW LVL WEST WIND...WHICH IS
PREVENTING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WILL STILL SEE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE MTNS WHICH COULD KEEP THE ISOLATED THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO
EARLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER AS OPPOSED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS MUGGY SO LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT
KLWB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE
CROSSING THE RIDGES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION WITH JUST A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AROUND. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO
INHIBIT MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR AT
KLYH/KDAN THAT SHOULD STAY EAST OF ANY UPSTREAM MID DECK THAT MAY
ARRIVE OVER THE WEST TOWARD DAWN. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF
VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANY ADDED
CLOUDS PUSH EAST. THUS WENT WITH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT
KLWB/KBCB FOR FOG ALTHOUGH FORECAST FOG STABILITY VALUES SHOW ONLY
SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAY SEE A
MORE ORGANIZED BAND DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH THE LEADING PRE-
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDING A VCTS MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AT KBCB.
OTRW EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR AFTER EARLY MID DECK ERODES AND
SCATTERED-BROKEN CU FIELDS BETWEEN 4-6K FT TAKE SHAPE WITH
HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011909
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND HEATING WHICH THERE IS
PLENTY. WORKING AGAINST IT...IS THE LOW LVL WEST WIND...WHICH IS
PREVENTING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WILL STILL SEE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE MTNS WHICH COULD KEEP THE ISOLATED THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO
EARLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER AS OPPOSED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS MUGGY SO LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AT DUSK. OVERNIGHT VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THOUGH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
LYH/DAN SUGGEST MVFR FOG...AND WITH LESS CLOUDS ADDED THIS IN
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011909
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND HEATING WHICH THERE IS
PLENTY. WORKING AGAINST IT...IS THE LOW LVL WEST WIND...WHICH IS
PREVENTING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WILL STILL SEE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE MTNS WHICH COULD KEEP THE ISOLATED THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO
EARLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER AS OPPOSED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS MUGGY SO LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AT DUSK. OVERNIGHT VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THOUGH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
LYH/DAN SUGGEST MVFR FOG...AND WITH LESS CLOUDS ADDED THIS IN
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011728
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER RIDGE BUT SOME FLATTENING ALOFT IS
OCCURRING. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF WSW THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
THE LOWER LVLS...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT STORM FORMATION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND BACKING FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF OUR CWA...WITH SOME UPSLOPE
CONTRIBUTING TO LIFT.

FORECAST TEMPS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES THERE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...TO LOWER AND MAYBE EVEN MID 90S OUT EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AT DUSK. OVERNIGHT VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THOUGH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
LYH/DAN SUGGEST MVFR FOG...AND WITH LESS CLOUDS ADDED THIS IN
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011728
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER RIDGE BUT SOME FLATTENING ALOFT IS
OCCURRING. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF WSW THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
THE LOWER LVLS...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT STORM FORMATION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND BACKING FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF OUR CWA...WITH SOME UPSLOPE
CONTRIBUTING TO LIFT.

FORECAST TEMPS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES THERE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...TO LOWER AND MAYBE EVEN MID 90S OUT EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AT DUSK. OVERNIGHT VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THOUGH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
LYH/DAN SUGGEST MVFR FOG...AND WITH LESS CLOUDS ADDED THIS IN
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011504
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1104 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER RIDGE BUT SOME FLATTENING ALOFT IS
OCCURRING. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF WSW THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
THE LOWER LVLS...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT STORM FORMATION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND BACKING FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF OUR CWA...WITH SOME UPSLOPE
CONTRIBUTING TO LIFT.

FORECAST TEMPS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES THERE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...TO LOWER AND MAYBE EVEN MID 90S OUT EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE MOSTLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WEST WINDS. EXPECT MORNING -SHRA TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT HOWEVER...UPSLOPE WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS INTO MID-DAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED AND CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WITH -SHRA ENCROACHING ON BLF/LWB AFT 08Z. MOSTLY MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS. VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A
VERY WARM AIR MASS AND EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS...WSW INCREASING TO
7-10KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS AT ROA/BLF/BCB.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VBSYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011148
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPECIALLY WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN THE WEST WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WHILE IN THE EAST...WEAKER
LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.

WITH A WARM START...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A
WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE MOSTLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WEST WINDS. EXPECT MORNING -SHRA TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT HOWEVER...UPSLOPE WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS INTO MID-DAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED AND CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WITH -SHRA ENCROACHING ON BLF/LWB AFT 08Z. MOSTLY MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS. VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A
VERY WARM AIR MASS AND EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS...WSW INCREASING TO
7-10KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS AT ROA/BLF/BCB.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VBSYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011148
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPECIALLY WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN THE WEST WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WHILE IN THE EAST...WEAKER
LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.

WITH A WARM START...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A
WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE MOSTLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WEST WINDS. EXPECT MORNING -SHRA TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT HOWEVER...UPSLOPE WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS INTO MID-DAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED AND CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WITH -SHRA ENCROACHING ON BLF/LWB AFT 08Z. MOSTLY MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS. VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A
VERY WARM AIR MASS AND EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS...WSW INCREASING TO
7-10KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS AT ROA/BLF/BCB.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VBSYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPECIALLY WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN THE WEST WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WHILE IN THE EAST...WEAKER
LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.

WITH A WARM START...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A
WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL OCCUR AT BLF AND LWB. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE
WITH A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING.

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT THE MID DECK SHOULD
LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES NO WORSE
THAN MVFR THIS MORNING WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY TO IFR
AFTER 10Z.

AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH
CONVECTION TODAY ESPECIALLY IF EARLY MID DECK PERSISTS. THIS
SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF LABOR DAY AFTER EARLY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPECIALLY WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN THE WEST WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WHILE IN THE EAST...WEAKER
LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.

WITH A WARM START...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A
WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL OCCUR AT BLF AND LWB. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE
WITH A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING.

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT THE MID DECK SHOULD
LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES NO WORSE
THAN MVFR THIS MORNING WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY TO IFR
AFTER 10Z.

AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH
CONVECTION TODAY ESPECIALLY IF EARLY MID DECK PERSISTS. THIS
SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF LABOR DAY AFTER EARLY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010541
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
MORNING. SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING TOWARDS A BLEND OF RAP AND HRRR.
MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.

AS OF 920 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIES FROM MD-CENTRAL WV. MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE THAT WAS OVER TN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED AS HAVE THE
SHOWERS UPSTREAM. OVERNIGHT NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WV MTNS INTO FAR SW
VA...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EDGES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY DAWN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MID DECK OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE THE EAST CLEARS SOME TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL FOG
THREAT IS PATCHY BUT COULD GET DENSE OUT EAST IF IT CLEARS OUT
ENOUGH. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL OCCUR AT BLF AND LWB. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE
WITH A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING.

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT THE MID DECK SHOULD
LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES NO WORSE
THAN MVFR THIS MORNING WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY TO IFR
AFTER 10Z.

AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH
CONVECTION TODAY ESPECIALLY IF EARLY MID DECK PERSISTS. THIS
SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF LABOR DAY AFTER EARLY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010502
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
102 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
MORNING. SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING TOWARDS A BLEND OF RAP AND HRRR.
MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.

AS OF 920 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIES FROM MD-CENTRAL WV. MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE THAT WAS OVER TN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED AS HAVE THE
SHOWERS UPSTREAM. OVERNIGHT NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WV MTNS INTO FAR SW
VA...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EDGES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY DAWN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MID DECK OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE THE EAST CLEARS SOME TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL FOG
THREAT IS PATCHY BUT COULD GET DENSE OUT EAST IF IT CLEARS OUT
ENOUGH. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF THE LWB TAF THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER INVOF BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT BUT THE CHANCES ARE LIMITED.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010502
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
102 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
MORNING. SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING TOWARDS A BLEND OF RAP AND HRRR.
MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.

AS OF 920 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIES FROM MD-CENTRAL WV. MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE THAT WAS OVER TN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED AS HAVE THE
SHOWERS UPSTREAM. OVERNIGHT NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WV MTNS INTO FAR SW
VA...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EDGES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY DAWN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MID DECK OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE THE EAST CLEARS SOME TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL FOG
THREAT IS PATCHY BUT COULD GET DENSE OUT EAST IF IT CLEARS OUT
ENOUGH. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF THE LWB TAF THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER INVOF BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT BUT THE CHANCES ARE LIMITED.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIES FROM MD-CENTRAL WV. MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE THAT WAS OVER TN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED AS HAVE THE
SHOWERS UPSTREAM. OVERNIGHT NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WV MTNS INTO FAR SW
VA...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EDGES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY DAWN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MID DECK OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE THE EAST CLEARS SOME TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL FOG
THREAT IS PATCHY BUT COULD GET DENSE OUT EAST IF IT CLEARS OUT
ENOUGH. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF THE LWB TAF THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER INVOF BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT BUT THE CHANCES ARE LIMITED.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIES FROM MD-CENTRAL WV. MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE THAT WAS OVER TN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED AS HAVE THE
SHOWERS UPSTREAM. OVERNIGHT NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WV MTNS INTO FAR SW
VA...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EDGES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY DAWN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MID DECK OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE THE EAST CLEARS SOME TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL FOG
THREAT IS PATCHY BUT COULD GET DENSE OUT EAST IF IT CLEARS OUT
ENOUGH. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF THE LWB TAF THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER INVOF BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT BUT THE CHANCES ARE LIMITED.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 312352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
752 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT WEAKENING CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST AND
WEST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT IS OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND BLUE RIDGE BY MIDNIGHT. STORMS OVER KNOXVILLE HAVE SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND AS HAD THE SHOWERS IN ERN KY/WRN WV. STILL THINK
THERE MAY BE SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE FAR WEST LATE THIS
EVENING SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS THERE...BUT LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST OF THE WV/VA BORDER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AT TAF SITES
EXCEPT LWB. HRRR IS CATCHING ONTO SHOWERS FROM FAR SW VA INTO ERN
KY/WV MOVING NE TO LWB BY 0130Z. SHOULD SEE A SMALL PERIOD OF
SHOWERS HERE...COULD REDUCE VSBY TO 5SM.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 312352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
752 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT WEAKENING CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST AND
WEST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT IS OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND BLUE RIDGE BY MIDNIGHT. STORMS OVER KNOXVILLE HAVE SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND AS HAD THE SHOWERS IN ERN KY/WRN WV. STILL THINK
THERE MAY BE SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE FAR WEST LATE THIS
EVENING SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS THERE...BUT LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST OF THE WV/VA BORDER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AT TAF SITES
EXCEPT LWB. HRRR IS CATCHING ONTO SHOWERS FROM FAR SW VA INTO ERN
KY/WV MOVING NE TO LWB BY 0130Z. SHOULD SEE A SMALL PERIOD OF
SHOWERS HERE...COULD REDUCE VSBY TO 5SM.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHALLOW CONVECTION STARTING TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE AIDED BY CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WESTERN
SLOPES...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER THETA-E POOLING. THIS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL PASS TO THE NW THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LOTS OF UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL WHICH MAY TEND TO
INHIBIT ALREADY WEAK INSTABILITY FAR WEST...WITH HIGHER 2K J/KG CAPES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ENOUGH COVERAGE TO CONTINUE LOW LIKELY
TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WEST THIS EVENING...BUT QUESTIONS INTO HOW FAR EAST
TO TAKE SHRA/TSRA PER BETTER DYNAMICS WEST/NW...AND LESS FOCUS DESPITE
STRONGER INSTABILITY PIEDMONT. LATEST NAM/GFS/EC TEND TO CONFINE ADDED
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE WEST OR NW THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HRRR/NSSL
WRF AND CMC TAKING SOME CONVECTION OUT EAST. FOR NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR OUTFLOW TO SNEAK OUT OFF THE MOUNTAINS AS MIXING FADES...PLAN TO
KEEP SOME BRIEF LOW CHANCE POPS EAST TO THE PIEDMONT. SECONDARY FAINT
IMPULSE MAY ALSO KEEP OR HELP DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA WEST AFTER
SUNSET...OTRW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MORNING. TEMPS AGAIN SLOW TO FALL PER CLOUDS/MOISTURE SO STAYED CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET MOS ALLOWING SOME EASTERN SPOTS TO STAY ABOVE 70.

SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR TO KLWB/KBLF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR VSBYS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CANOPY LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME HEADING EAST TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEEPING ELSW VFR WHILE DELAYING TIMING OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA A COUPLE HOURS AT KBCB/KROA/KLYH...AND LEAVING OUT
MENTION AT KDAN FOR NOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE NW THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A BAND MOVING EAST OFF
THE RIDGES BEFORE FADING BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEFT IN EITHER HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PREVAILING VFR/MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA POSSIBLE. OTRW WILL KEEP A VCSH
MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SREF PROGS SUGGEST LIMITED
DENSE FOG COVERAGE GIVEN MID CLOUDS SO ONLY LOWERING KLWB TO IFR
BY MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHALLOW CONVECTION STARTING TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE AIDED BY CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WESTERN
SLOPES...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER THETA-E POOLING. THIS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL PASS TO THE NW THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LOTS OF UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL WHICH MAY TEND TO
INHIBIT ALREADY WEAK INSTABILITY FAR WEST...WITH HIGHER 2K J/KG CAPES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ENOUGH COVERAGE TO CONTINUE LOW LIKELY
TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WEST THIS EVENING...BUT QUESTIONS INTO HOW FAR EAST
TO TAKE SHRA/TSRA PER BETTER DYNAMICS WEST/NW...AND LESS FOCUS DESPITE
STRONGER INSTABILITY PIEDMONT. LATEST NAM/GFS/EC TEND TO CONFINE ADDED
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE WEST OR NW THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HRRR/NSSL
WRF AND CMC TAKING SOME CONVECTION OUT EAST. FOR NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR OUTFLOW TO SNEAK OUT OFF THE MOUNTAINS AS MIXING FADES...PLAN TO
KEEP SOME BRIEF LOW CHANCE POPS EAST TO THE PIEDMONT. SECONDARY FAINT
IMPULSE MAY ALSO KEEP OR HELP DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA WEST AFTER
SUNSET...OTRW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MORNING. TEMPS AGAIN SLOW TO FALL PER CLOUDS/MOISTURE SO STAYED CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET MOS ALLOWING SOME EASTERN SPOTS TO STAY ABOVE 70.

SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR TO KLWB/KBLF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR VSBYS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CANOPY LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME HEADING EAST TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEEPING ELSW VFR WHILE DELAYING TIMING OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA A COUPLE HOURS AT KBCB/KROA/KLYH...AND LEAVING OUT
MENTION AT KDAN FOR NOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE NW THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A BAND MOVING EAST OFF
THE RIDGES BEFORE FADING BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEFT IN EITHER HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PREVAILING VFR/MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA POSSIBLE. OTRW WILL KEEP A VCSH
MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SREF PROGS SUGGEST LIMITED
DENSE FOG COVERAGE GIVEN MID CLOUDS SO ONLY LOWERING KLWB TO IFR
BY MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHALLOW CONVECTION STARTING TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE AIDED BY CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WESTERN
SLOPES...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER THETA-E POOLING. THIS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL PASS TO THE NW THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LOTS OF UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL WHICH MAY TEND TO
INHIBIT ALREADY WEAK INSTABILITY FAR WEST...WITH HIGHER 2K J/KG CAPES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ENOUGH COVERAGE TO CONTINUE LOW LIKELY
TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WEST THIS EVENING...BUT QUESTIONS INTO HOW FAR EAST
TO TAKE SHRA/TSRA PER BETTER DYNAMICS WEST/NW...AND LESS FOCUS DESPITE
STRONGER INSTABILITY PIEDMONT. LATEST NAM/GFS/EC TEND TO CONFINE ADDED
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE WEST OR NW THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HRRR/NSSL
WRF AND CMC TAKING SOME CONVECTION OUT EAST. FOR NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR OUTFLOW TO SNEAK OUT OFF THE MOUNTAINS AS MIXING FADES...PLAN TO
KEEP SOME BRIEF LOW CHANCE POPS EAST TO THE PIEDMONT. SECONDARY FAINT
IMPULSE MAY ALSO KEEP OR HELP DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA WEST AFTER
SUNSET...OTRW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MORNING. TEMPS AGAIN SLOW TO FALL PER CLOUDS/MOISTURE SO STAYED CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET MOS ALLOWING SOME EASTERN SPOTS TO STAY ABOVE 70.

SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR TO KLWB/KBLF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR VSBYS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CANOPY LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME HEADING EAST TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEEPING ELSW VFR WHILE DELAYING TIMING OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA A COUPLE HOURS AT KBCB/KROA/KLYH...AND LEAVING OUT
MENTION AT KDAN FOR NOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE NW THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A BAND MOVING EAST OFF
THE RIDGES BEFORE FADING BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEFT IN EITHER HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PREVAILING VFR/MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA POSSIBLE. OTRW WILL KEEP A VCSH
MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SREF PROGS SUGGEST LIMITED
DENSE FOG COVERAGE GIVEN MID CLOUDS SO ONLY LOWERING KLWB TO IFR
BY MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311718
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
118 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

INITIAL BAND OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAS ALREADY FADED UPON
CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE SO UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST VISIBLE PICS WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SW FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPPING JUST OFF
THE SURFACE AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INVERSION ABOVE WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO DETER ANY WIDESPREAD ADDED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY THIS EVENING AT BEST.

OTRW APPEARS BETTER AFTERNOON CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE PER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW...HIGHER THETA-E AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NW WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS
LOOKS TO FOLD INTO LATE BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE FROM THIS MORNING.
ALSO SOME ADDITION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE EDGE OF THE FAR
WESTERN CLOUD SHIELD MAY ALONG WITH OROGRPAHICS AID INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST ON A SCATTERED BASIS. THUS BASICALLY KEPT
GOING LOW LIKELY POPS IN THESE SPOTS WHILE TRIMMING BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE MORE UNDER THE RESIDUAL RIDGE AND WITHOUT MUCH
FOCUS FOR NOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR.

THICKNESS OFF 12Z RAOBS REMAINS QUITE WARM...AND GIVEN A MILD
START INCLUDING MORE HEATING EARLY...WOULD EXPECT READINGS OUT
EAST TO POSSIBLY REACH 90/LOW 90S WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSW FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST. SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER FAR WEST PER CLOUDS BUT
EVEN THERE APPEARS UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LIKELY.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM. HUMID AIR
MASS AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING
TONIGHT. USED WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR TO KLWB/KBLF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR VSBYS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CANOPY LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME HEADING EAST TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEEPING ELSW VFR WHILE DELAYING TIMING OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA A COUPLE HOURS AT KBCB/KROA/KLYH...AND LEAVING OUT
MENTION AT KDAN FOR NOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE NW THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A BAND MOVING EAST OFF
THE RIDGES BEFORE FADING BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEFT IN EITHER HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PREVAILING VFR/MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA POSSIBLE. OTRW WILL KEEP A VCSH
MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SREF PROGS SUGGEST LIMITED
DENSE FOG COVERAGE GIVEN MID CLOUDS SO ONLY LOWERING KLWB TO IFR
BY MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311718
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
118 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

INITIAL BAND OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAS ALREADY FADED UPON
CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE SO UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST VISIBLE PICS WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SW FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPPING JUST OFF
THE SURFACE AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INVERSION ABOVE WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO DETER ANY WIDESPREAD ADDED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY THIS EVENING AT BEST.

OTRW APPEARS BETTER AFTERNOON CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE PER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW...HIGHER THETA-E AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NW WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS
LOOKS TO FOLD INTO LATE BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE FROM THIS MORNING.
ALSO SOME ADDITION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE EDGE OF THE FAR
WESTERN CLOUD SHIELD MAY ALONG WITH OROGRPAHICS AID INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST ON A SCATTERED BASIS. THUS BASICALLY KEPT
GOING LOW LIKELY POPS IN THESE SPOTS WHILE TRIMMING BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE MORE UNDER THE RESIDUAL RIDGE AND WITHOUT MUCH
FOCUS FOR NOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR.

THICKNESS OFF 12Z RAOBS REMAINS QUITE WARM...AND GIVEN A MILD
START INCLUDING MORE HEATING EARLY...WOULD EXPECT READINGS OUT
EAST TO POSSIBLY REACH 90/LOW 90S WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSW FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST. SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER FAR WEST PER CLOUDS BUT
EVEN THERE APPEARS UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LIKELY.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM. HUMID AIR
MASS AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING
TONIGHT. USED WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR TO KLWB/KBLF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR VSBYS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CANOPY LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME HEADING EAST TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEEPING ELSW VFR WHILE DELAYING TIMING OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA A COUPLE HOURS AT KBCB/KROA/KLYH...AND LEAVING OUT
MENTION AT KDAN FOR NOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE NW THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A BAND MOVING EAST OFF
THE RIDGES BEFORE FADING BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEFT IN EITHER HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PREVAILING VFR/MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA POSSIBLE. OTRW WILL KEEP A VCSH
MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SREF PROGS SUGGEST LIMITED
DENSE FOG COVERAGE GIVEN MID CLOUDS SO ONLY LOWERING KLWB TO IFR
BY MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311412
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1012 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT FINALLY
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

INITIAL BAND OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAS ALREADY FADED UPON
CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE SO UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST VISIBLE PICS WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SW FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPPING JUST OFF
THE SURFACE AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INVERSION ABOVE WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO DETER ANY WIDESPREAD ADDED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY THIS EVENING AT BEST.

OTRW APPEARS BETTER AFTERNOON CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE PER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW...HIGHER THETA-E AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NW WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS
LOOKS TO FOLD INTO LATE BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE FROM THIS MORNING.
ALSO SOME ADDITION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE EDGE OF THE FAR
WESTERN CLOUD SHIELD MAY ALONG WITH OROGRPAHICS AID INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST ON A SCATTERED BASIS. THUS BASICALLY KEPT
GOING LOW LIKELY POPS IN THESE SPOTS WHILE TRIMMING BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE MORE UNDER THE RESIDUAL RIDGE AND WITHOUT MUCH
FOCUS FOR NOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR.

THICKNESS OFF 12Z RAOBS REMAINS QUITE WARM...AND GIVEN A MILD
START INCLUDING MORE HEATING EARLY...WOULD EXPECT READINGS OUT
EAST TO POSSIBLY REACH 90/LOW 90S WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSW FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST. SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER FAR WEST PER CLOUDS BUT
EVEN THERE APPEARS UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LIKELY.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM. HUMID AIR
MASS AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING
TONIGHT. USED WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH
OUT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH KLYH OR KDAN
BEFORE 10AM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. EXPECT
RAIN AT KROA/KBCB AND KLWB THROUGH 14Z/10AM THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR IN ALL BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH ABOUT
1PM/17Z...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWED THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING AND
RESULTING INSTABILITY HAS OCCURRED. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE
LOCATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS
APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311144
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT FINALLY
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER JET AND AXIS OF
VORTICITY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGES WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS BRING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NOT SURE
HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET. 06Z HRRR HAD REASONABLE
TIMING MOVING THE EASTERN EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8AM
SO WILL BE FOLLOWING THAT ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM.

4KM NAM AND HRRR DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY TODAY. STAYED CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HUMID AIR MASS
AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING TONIGHT. USED
WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH
OUT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH KLYH OR KDAN
BEFORE 10AM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. EXPECT
RAIN AT KROA/KBCB AND KLWB THROUGH 14Z/10AM THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR IN ALL BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH ABOUT
1PM/17Z...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWED THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING AND
RESULTING INSTABILITY HAS OCCURRED. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE
LOCATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS
APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311144
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT FINALLY
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER JET AND AXIS OF
VORTICITY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGES WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS BRING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NOT SURE
HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET. 06Z HRRR HAD REASONABLE
TIMING MOVING THE EASTERN EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8AM
SO WILL BE FOLLOWING THAT ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM.

4KM NAM AND HRRR DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY TODAY. STAYED CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HUMID AIR MASS
AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING TONIGHT. USED
WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH
OUT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH KLYH OR KDAN
BEFORE 10AM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. EXPECT
RAIN AT KROA/KBCB AND KLWB THROUGH 14Z/10AM THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR IN ALL BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH ABOUT
1PM/17Z...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWED THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING AND
RESULTING INSTABILITY HAS OCCURRED. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE
LOCATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS
APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310805
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT FINALLY
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER JET AND AXIS OF
VORTICITY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGES WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS BRING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NOT SURE
HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET. 06Z HRRR HAD REASONABLE
TIMING MOVING THE EASTERN EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8AM
SO WILL BE FOLLOWING THAT ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM.

4KM NAM AND HRRR DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY TODAY. STAYED CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HUMID AIR MASS
AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING TONIGHT. USED
WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF VORTICITY ALONG
THIS SAME CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN TO
WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET BY 00Z/8PM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE KBCB AND KROA TAFS. ALSO KEPT KLYH AND
KDAN DRY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS BRING IFR CEILINGS INTO KLYH AND KDAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL. HOWEVER TIMING AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310805
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT FINALLY
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER JET AND AXIS OF
VORTICITY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGES WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS BRING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NOT SURE
HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET. 06Z HRRR HAD REASONABLE
TIMING MOVING THE EASTERN EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8AM
SO WILL BE FOLLOWING THAT ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM.

4KM NAM AND HRRR DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY TODAY. STAYED CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HUMID AIR MASS
AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING TONIGHT. USED
WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF VORTICITY ALONG
THIS SAME CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN TO
WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET BY 00Z/8PM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE KBCB AND KROA TAFS. ALSO KEPT KLYH AND
KDAN DRY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS BRING IFR CEILINGS INTO KLYH AND KDAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL. HOWEVER TIMING AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310531
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER AIRMASS
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW ALL BUT GONE...PLAN TO RUN A FEW
HOURS WITHOUT POP INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND
BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE BACK TO THE SW OVER TN/AL. LATEST EVENING
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT CAPPED
OFF ALOFT VIA THE LINGERING INVERSION/DRY AIR. APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT EAST
LATE UNDER THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AS SEEN BY A COUPLE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER EVEN THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE WHEN THINGS ARE
MORE STABLE...SO ALSO PUSHED POPS BACK WEST A BIT...WITH MAINLY
CHANCE COVERAGE SE WEST VA DOWN ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY
DAWN...AND ONLY SLIGHT POPS OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. OTRW A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS EARLY ON...THEN MAINLY CLOUDY
WESTERN HALF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MORE PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR LONGER. NUDGED UP LOW TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS PER MOISTURE UNDER THE CLOUD CANOPY WHICH
SUPPORTS SOME SPOTS STAYING ABOVE 70 EAST AND MOSTLY 60S WEST.

SUNDAY...MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF UPPER SHORTWAVE BUT
DIFFER ON EASTWARD EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP. THE 12Z NAM OVERALL
LOOKED TO BULLSEYEISH WITH FINGERS OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE NC MTNS
INTO SW VA...SO LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...WHICH
FOR THE MOST PART TAKE THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NW NC/SW VA/SRN WV
AREA INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOMORROW...WITH LESS THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE DAN/LYH CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER SO LOOKING AT HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO MID TO
UPPER 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOUND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...MAY SEE A FEW AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
BUT BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOW DUE TO A WEEK OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WE APPROACH
MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
DISORGANIZED DUE TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH...AS WELL AS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. RAINFALL WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE DRY...ALBEIT WARM
AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA PER THE 30/12Z RUNS...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
FURTHER NORTH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...PERHAPS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 64 AND
HIGHWAY 460 CORRIDORS DURING TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHEREVER IT IS LOCATED. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF VORTICITY ALONG
THIS SAME CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN TO
WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET BY 00Z/8PM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE KBCB AND KROA TAFS. ALSO KEPT KLYH AND
KDAN DRY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS BRING IFR CEILINGS INTO KLYH AND KDAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL. HOWEVER TIMING AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310531
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER AIRMASS
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW ALL BUT GONE...PLAN TO RUN A FEW
HOURS WITHOUT POP INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND
BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE BACK TO THE SW OVER TN/AL. LATEST EVENING
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT CAPPED
OFF ALOFT VIA THE LINGERING INVERSION/DRY AIR. APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT EAST
LATE UNDER THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AS SEEN BY A COUPLE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER EVEN THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE WHEN THINGS ARE
MORE STABLE...SO ALSO PUSHED POPS BACK WEST A BIT...WITH MAINLY
CHANCE COVERAGE SE WEST VA DOWN ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY
DAWN...AND ONLY SLIGHT POPS OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. OTRW A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS EARLY ON...THEN MAINLY CLOUDY
WESTERN HALF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MORE PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR LONGER. NUDGED UP LOW TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS PER MOISTURE UNDER THE CLOUD CANOPY WHICH
SUPPORTS SOME SPOTS STAYING ABOVE 70 EAST AND MOSTLY 60S WEST.

SUNDAY...MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF UPPER SHORTWAVE BUT
DIFFER ON EASTWARD EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP. THE 12Z NAM OVERALL
LOOKED TO BULLSEYEISH WITH FINGERS OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE NC MTNS
INTO SW VA...SO LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...WHICH
FOR THE MOST PART TAKE THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NW NC/SW VA/SRN WV
AREA INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOMORROW...WITH LESS THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE DAN/LYH CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER SO LOOKING AT HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO MID TO
UPPER 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOUND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...MAY SEE A FEW AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
BUT BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOW DUE TO A WEEK OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WE APPROACH
MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
DISORGANIZED DUE TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH...AS WELL AS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. RAINFALL WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE DRY...ALBEIT WARM
AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA PER THE 30/12Z RUNS...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
FURTHER NORTH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...PERHAPS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 64 AND
HIGHWAY 460 CORRIDORS DURING TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHEREVER IT IS LOCATED. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF VORTICITY ALONG
THIS SAME CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN TO
WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET BY 00Z/8PM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE KBCB AND KROA TAFS. ALSO KEPT KLYH AND
KDAN DRY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS BRING IFR CEILINGS INTO KLYH AND KDAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL. HOWEVER TIMING AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




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