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000
FXUS61 KRNK 210717
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE 8C ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AND 3-4C ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH RESPECT TO
YESTERDAY...AND DESPITE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S.

NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CANOPY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE RELATIVELY
LOW DEW POINTS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF RADIATIVE COOLING SUCH THAT MOST AREAS FALL
BACK ONLY INTO THE 40S.

LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT MAY
ENCROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BUT MAIN IMPACT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL OCCUR
AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS
SOLUTIONS THAT HIGHLIGHT THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE BEST COVERAGE
JUMPS TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
WITH A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF DRYING IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO
GUIDANCE OF 12 HOURS AGO. THE LATEST ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS COINCIDENT TO AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND BE SETTLED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL
HELP PROMPT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
POINT THE STRONGEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN
THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...GUSTS WILL BE MORE
ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FROST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...THE GROWING SEASON STILL HAS NOT
STARTED IN THIS PARTS...SO NO FROST ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PREDOMINATES.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE DEVIATES ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
UNIQUELY DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE GFS SOLUTION DEEPENS THE PARENT LOW OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRINGS IT SOUTH TO CAPE COD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
KEEPS A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEEPEN THE COLD FRONT/S
PARENT LOW...AND EJECTS ITS QUICKLY EASTWARD MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A QUICKER RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA THAT
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEMS INTO OR TOWARD
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HAVING A MILDER
PATTERN. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY WPC
WHICH LEANS MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECWMF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...LIKELY PRECEDED
AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE
REGIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR WEATHER
AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE
SITES IN SE WEST VA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH DRYING CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY...
LIGHT AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY POSE SOME TRANSPORT ISSUES FOR
SCHEDULED PRESCRIBED BURNS DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINLY CALM THIS MORNING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...BECOMING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VARIABLE THIS MORNING...
BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN EVEN MORE OPTIMAL
CONDITION EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WERT
FIRE WEATHER...WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210533
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 934 PM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. RIDGING BOTH
SFC/ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
WILL A SLOWER DROP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER MAV GUIDANCE FROM A THE UPPER 20S IN
THE COLDER MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS. WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED...PATCHY FROST MAY
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST LATE BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE FOR FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 711 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN TEMPS IN THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS... DROPPING THEM A COUPLE DEGREES. CLOUD COVER WAS
REDUCED FROM 22Z TO 06Z MONDAY TO FIT THE TRANSITION AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT TO SEA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED ACCORDING TO
SURFACE OBSERVATION TREND.

AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY GET BUMPED EAST
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND
TO BUILD SW AND BE PARTIALLY OVERHEAD BY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER FLUX OF DRY AIR UNDER INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SUPPORTS GOING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
MAINLY SE EARLY. GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE AND
POTENTIAL FOR ALL EXCEPT THE RIDGES AND PIEDMONT TO DECOUPLE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD SEE QUITE A DIURNAL SWING WITH LOWS
GOING DOWN CLOSE TO IF NOT BELOW THE COOLER MAV MOS IN SPOTS.
LIKELY TO EVEN SEE A FEW 20S IN THE VALLEYS WHILE SOME CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST SCTD/PATCHY FROST IN THE EAST WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS STARTED. HOWEVER APPEARS TEMPS THERE WONT FALL OFF TOO
FAST UNTIL LATE WHEN WINDS FADE...WHILE DRYNESS PER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...DOESNT SUPPORT MUCH FROST EVEN IF TEMPS DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE BOTTOMS. THUS ONLY ADDING IN SOME PATCHY
FROST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE EAST LATE INCLUDING HWO MENTION
FOR THE OUTLYING AREAS TOWARD DAWN. OTRW CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT 40S RIDGES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
EC MOS.

RIDGING BOTH SFC/ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN MONDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER DRY AIR
WILL STILL PREVAIL UNDER NORTH/NW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT AS THE FLOW
REMAINS MUCH WEAKER DESPITE A QUICK SURGE IN 85H WARMING. COULD SEE
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INVADE THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DETER A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET ANOTHER
BOOST WITH HEATING ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT MIXING MAY KEEP VALUES JUST
BELOW THE VERY WARM MAV MOS FOR NOW WITH 70S MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL INTO THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE MILDER LOW
TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE BEING IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON... THE FOCUS JUMPS TO THE PIEDMONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD A QUICK CLEAR OUT OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SE WV UPSLOPE SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY FACTORS
OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE COMMON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL STARTING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE TO WARRANT GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS APPROACHING 20 MPH. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES OVER...AND THEN EAST
OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW TO MID
30S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AND START TO SHIFT TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
RESULT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
PREDOMINATES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE DEVIATES ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
UNIQUELY DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE GFS SOLUTION DEEPENS THE PARENT LOW OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRINGS IT SOUTH TO CAPE COD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
KEEPS A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEEPEN THE COLD FRONT/S
PARENT LOW...AND EJECTS ITS QUICKLY EASTWARD MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A QUICKER RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA THAT
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEMS INTO OR TOWARD
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HAVING A MILDER
PATTERN. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY WPC
WHICH LEANS MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECWMF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...LIKELY PRECEDEDAND
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE
REGIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR WEATHER
AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE
SITES IN SE WEST VA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210135
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
935 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 PM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. RIDGING BOTH
SFC/ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
WILL A SLOWER DROP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER MAV GUIDANCE FROM A THE UPPER 20S IN
THE COLDER MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS. WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED...PATCHY FROST MAY
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST LATE BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE FOR FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 711 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN TEMPS IN THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS... DROPPING THEM A COUPLE DEGREES. CLOUD COVER WAS
REDUCED FROM 22Z TO 06Z MONDAY TO FIT THE TRANSITION AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT TO SEA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED ACCORDING TO
SURFACE OBSERVATION TREND.

AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY GET BUMPED EAST
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND
TO BUILD SW AND BE PARTIALLY OVERHEAD BY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER FLUX OF DRY AIR UNDER INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SUPPORTS GOING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
MAINLY SE EARLY. GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE AND
POTENTIAL FOR ALL EXCEPT THE RIDGES AND PIEDMONT TO DECOUPLE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD SEE QUITE A DIURNAL SWING WITH LOWS
GOING DOWN CLOSE TO IF NOT BELOW THE COOLER MAV MOS IN SPOTS.
LIKELY TO EVEN SEE A FEW 20S IN THE VALLEYS WHILE SOME CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST SCTD/PATCHY FROST IN THE EAST WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS STARTED. HOWEVER APPEARS TEMPS THERE WONT FALL OFF TOO
FAST UNTIL LATE WHEN WINDS FADE...WHILE DRYNESS PER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...DOESNT SUPPORT MUCH FROST EVEN IF TEMPS DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE BOTTOMS. THUS ONLY ADDING IN SOME PATCHY
FROST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE EAST LATE INCLUDING HWO MENTION
FOR THE OUTLYING AREAS TOWARD DAWN. OTRW CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT 40S RIDGES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
EC MOS.

RIDGING BOTH SFC/ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN MONDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER DRY AIR
WILL STILL PREVAIL UNDER NORTH/NW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT AS THE FLOW
REMAINS MUCH WEAKER DESPITE A QUICK SURGE IN 85H WARMING. COULD SEE
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INVADE THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DETER A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET ANOTHER
BOOST WITH HEATING ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT MIXING MAY KEEP VALUES JUST
BELOW THE VERY WARM MAV MOS FOR NOW WITH 70S MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL INTO THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE MILDER LOW
TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE BEING IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON... THE FOCUS JUMPS TO THE PIEDMONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD A QUICK CLEAR OUT OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SE WV UPSLOPE SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY FACTORS
OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE COMMON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL STARTING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE TO WARRANT GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS APPROACHING 20 MPH. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES OVER...AND THEN EAST
OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW TO MID
30S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AND START TO SHIFT TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
RESULT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
PREDOMINATES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE DEVIATES ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
UNIQUELY DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE GFS SOLUTION DEEPENS THE PARENT LOW OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRINGS IT SOUTH TO CAPE COD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
KEEPS A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEEPEN THE COLD FRONT/S
PARENT LOW...AND EJECTS ITS QUICKLY EASTWARD MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A QUICKER RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA THAT
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEMS INTO OR TOWARD
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HAVING A MILDER
PATTERN. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY WPC
WHICH LEANS MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECWMF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SC/NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE U.S. IN BETWEEN...RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK MON AS MID-U.S.
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO ISSUES WITH VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD EITHER. WINDS...TO START...NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...E-SE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON...THEN TRANSITION TO THE SW BY MON
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10KTS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...BUT SOME LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH 12Z...THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN
SE WEST VA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 202347
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 711 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN TEMPS IN THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS... DROPPING THEM A COUPLE DEGREES. CLOUD COVER WAS
REDUCED FROM 22Z TO 06Z MONDAY TO FIT THE TRANSITION AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT TO SEA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED ACCORDING TO
SURFACE OBSERVATION TREND.

AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY GET BUMPED EAST
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND
TO BUILD SW AND BE PARTIALLY OVERHEAD BY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER FLUX OF DRY AIR UNDER INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SUPPORTS GOING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
MAINLY SE EARLY. GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE AND
POTENTIAL FOR ALL EXCEPT THE RIDGES AND PIEDMONT TO DECOUPLE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD SEE QUITE A DIURNAL SWING WITH LOWS
GOING DOWN CLOSE TO IF NOT BELOW THE COOLER MAV MOS IN SPOTS.
LIKELY TO EVEN SEE A FEW 20S IN THE VALLEYS WHILE SOME CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST SCTD/PATCHY FROST IN THE EAST WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS STARTED. HOWEVER APPEARS TEMPS THERE WONT FALL OFF TOO
FAST UNTIL LATE WHEN WINDS FADE...WHILE DRYNESS PER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...DOESNT SUPPORT MUCH FROST EVEN IF TEMPS DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE BOTTOMS. THUS ONLY ADDING IN SOME PATCHY
FROST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE EAST LATE INCLUDING HWO MENTION
FOR THE OUTLYING AREAS TOWARD DAWN. OTRW CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT 40S RIDGES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
EC MOS.

RIDGING BOTH SFC/ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN MONDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER DRY AIR
WILL STILL PREVAIL UNDER NORTH/NW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT AS THE FLOW
REMAINS MUCH WEAKER DESPITE A QUICK SURGE IN 85H WARMING. COULD SEE
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INVADE THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DETER A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET ANOTHER
BOOST WITH HEATING ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT MIXING MAY KEEP VALUES JUST
BELOW THE VERY WARM MAV MOS FOR NOW WITH 70S MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL INTO THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE MILDER LOW
TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE BEING IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON... THE FOCUS JUMPS TO THE PIEDMONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD A QUICK CLEAR OUT OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SE WV UPSLOPE SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY FACTORS
OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE COMMON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL STARTING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE TO WARRANT GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS APPROACHING 20 MPH. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES OVER...AND THEN EAST
OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW TO MID
30S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AND START TO SHIFT TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
RESULT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
PREDOMINATES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE DEVIATES ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
UNIQUELY DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE GFS SOLUTION DEEPENS THE PARENT LOW OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRINGS IT SOUTH TO CAPE COD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
KEEPS A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEEPEN THE COLD FRONT/S
PARENT LOW...AND EJECTS ITS QUICKLY EASTWARD MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A QUICKER RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA THAT
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEMS INTO OR TOWARD
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HAVING A MILDER
PATTERN. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY WPC
WHICH LEANS MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECWMF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SC/NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE U.S. IN BETWEEN...RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK MON AS MID-U.S.
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO ISSUES WITH VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD EITHER. WINDS...TO START...NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...E-SE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON...THEN TRANSITION TO THE SW BY MON
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10KTS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...BUT SOME LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH 12Z...THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN
SE WEST VA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 202312
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
712 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 711 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN TEMPS IN THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS... DROPPING THEM A COUPLE DEGREES. CLOUD COVER WAS
REDUCED FROM 22Z TO 06Z MONDAY TO FIT THE TRANSITION AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT TO SEA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED ACCORDING TO
SURFACE OBSERVATION TREND.

AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY GET BUMPED EAST
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND
TO BUILD SW AND BE PARTIALLY OVERHEAD BY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER FLUX OF DRY AIR UNDER INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SUPPORTS GOING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
MAINLY SE EARLY. GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE AND
POTENTIAL FOR ALL EXCEPT THE RIDGES AND PIEDMONT TO DECOUPLE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD SEE QUITE A DIURNAL SWING WITH LOWS
GOING DOWN CLOSE TO IF NOT BELOW THE COOLER MAV MOS IN SPOTS.
LIKELY TO EVEN SEE A FEW 20S IN THE VALLEYS WHILE SOME CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST SCTD/PATCHY FROST IN THE EAST WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS STARTED. HOWEVER APPEARS TEMPS THERE WONT FALL OFF TOO
FAST UNTIL LATE WHEN WINDS FADE...WHILE DRYNESS PER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...DOESNT SUPPORT MUCH FROST EVEN IF TEMPS DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE BOTTOMS. THUS ONLY ADDING IN SOME PATCHY
FROST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE EAST LATE INCLUDING HWO MENTION
FOR THE OUTLYING AREAS TOWARD DAWN. OTRW CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT 40S RIDGES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
EC MOS.

RIDGING BOTH SFC/ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN MONDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER DRY AIR
WILL STILL PREVAIL UNDER NORTH/NW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT AS THE FLOW
REMAINS MUCH WEAKER DESPITE A QUICK SURGE IN 85H WARMING. COULD SEE
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INVADE THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DETER A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET ANOTHER
BOOST WITH HEATING ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT MIXING MAY KEEP VALUES JUST
BELOW THE VERY WARM MAV MOS FOR NOW WITH 70S MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL INTO THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE MILDER LOW
TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE BEING IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON... THE FOCUS JUMPS TO THE PIEDMONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD A QUICK CLEAR OUT OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SE WV UPSLOPE SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY FACTORS
OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE COMMON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL STARTING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE TO WARRANT GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS APPROACHING 20 MPH. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES OVER...AND THEN EAST
OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW TO MID
30S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AND START TO SHIFT TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
RESULT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
PREDOMINATES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE DEVIATES ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
UNIQUELY DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE GFS SOLUTION DEEPENS THE PARENT LOW OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRINGS IT SOUTH TO CAPE COD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
KEEPS A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEEPEN THE COLD FRONT/S
PARENT LOW...AND EJECTS ITS QUICKLY EASTWARD MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A QUICKER RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA THAT
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEMS INTO OR TOWARD
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HAVING A MILDER
PATTERN. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY WPC
WHICH LEANS MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECWMF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. MAY SEE SOME PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS ESPCLY AROUND
DAN INTO THIS EVENING WITH ANY LOWER CIGS LIKELY REMAINING TO THE
SE OVERNIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.

WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW TO THE SE AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. EXPECT LIGHTER
SPEEDS ELSW ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KTS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY LIGHT/VRBL WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN
SE WEST VA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PH/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 201909
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY GET BUMPED EAST
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND
TO BUILD SW AND BE PARTIALLY OVERHEAD BY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER FLUX OF DRY AIR UNDER INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SUPPORTS GOING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
MAINLY SE EARLY. GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE AND
POTENTIAL FOR ALL EXCEPT THE RIDGES AND PIEDMONT TO DECOUPLE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD SEE QUITE A DIURNAL SWING WITH LOWS
GOING DOWN CLOSE TO IF NOT BELOW THE COOLER MAV MOS IN SPOTS.
LIKELY TO EVEN SEE A FEW 20S IN THE VALLEYS WHILE SOME CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST SCTD/PATCHY FROST IN THE EAST WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS STARTED. HOWEVER APPEARS TEMPS THERE WONT FALL OFF TOO
FAST UNTIL LATE WHEN WINDS FADE...WHILE DRYNESS PER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...DOESNT SUPPORT MUCH FROST EVEN IF TEMPS DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE BOTTOMS. THUS ONLY ADDING IN SOME PATCHY
FROST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE EAST LATE INCLUDING HWO MENTION
FOR THE OUTLYING AREAS TOWARD DAWN. OTRW CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT 40S RIDGES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
EC MOS.

RIDGING BOTH SFC/ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN MONDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER DRY AIR
WILL STILL PREVAIL UNDER NORTH/NW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT AS THE FLOW
REMAINS MUCH WEAKER DESPITE A QUICK SURGE IN 85H WARMING. COULD SEE
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INVADE THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DETER A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET ANOTHER
BOOST WITH HEATING ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT MIXING MAY KEEP VALUES JUST
BELOW THE VERY WARM MAV MOS FOR NOW WITH 70S MOST SPOTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL INTO THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE MILDER LOW
TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE BEING IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON... THE FOCUS JUMPS TO THE PIEDMONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD A QUICK CLEAR OUT OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SE WV UPSLOPE SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY FACTORS
OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE COMMON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL STARTING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE TO WARRANT GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS APPROACHING 20 MPH. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES OVER...AND THEN EAST
OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW TO MID
30S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AND START TO SHIFT TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
RESULT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
PREDOMINATES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE DEVIATES ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
UNIQUELY DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE GFS SOLUTION DEEPENS THE PARENT LOW OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRINGS IT SOUTH TO CAPE COD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
KEEPS A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEEPEN THE COLD FRONT/S
PARENT LOW...AND EJECTS ITS QUICKLY EASTWARD MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A QUICKER RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA THAT
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEMS INTO OR TOWARD
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HAVING A MILDER
PATTERN. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY WPC
WHICH LEANS MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECWMF SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. MAY SEE SOME PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS ESPCLY AROUND
DAN INTO THIS EVENING WITH ANY LOWER CIGS LIKELY REMAINING TO THE
SE OVERNIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.

WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW TO THE SE AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. EXPECT LIGHTER
SPEEDS ELSW ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KTS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY LIGHT/VRBL WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN
SE WEST VA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PH/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 201637
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1237 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OFF S CAROLINA THIS MORNING
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NE ACROSS THE REGION PER
MORNING RNK RAOB SHOWING A PWAT OF BELOW A QUARTER INCH. THIS DRY
AIR AND DEEP NE FLOW HAS ALREADY ACTED TO MIX OUT MOST CLOUD COVER
EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CI NORTH AND OVER THE FAR SE WHERE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AROUND THE SYSTEM. MAY STILL
SEE SOME INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTRW
THINKING MAINLY SUNNY/COMFORTABLE UNDER LOWERING DEWPOINTS WITH A
GUSTY NE WIND LINGERING EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE GRADIENT PERSISTS
A BIT LONGER. MORNING THICKNESS GIVEN HEATING OF DRY AIR...AND
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE 85H COOL POCKET SUPPORTS UNIFORM HIGHS IN
THE 60S...WITH PERHAPS SOME SPOTS GETTING TO AROUND 70 LATE SO
BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE IN SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A FEW SPRINKLES/SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WERE STILL OBSERVED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

GFS ILLUSTRATED THIS AREA OF PRECIP WELL IN ITS 700MB-300MB OMEGA
FORECAST WHICH IS PUSHED EAST BY 12Z. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNDER A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
DEW POINTS FALLING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REGION-WIDE LATER THIS MORNING.

DISCOUNTED THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH TRIES TO SURGE 850MB THETA-E
AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND.

AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS TODAY...CLOUDS WILL THIN FROM
WEST TO EAST ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. CLEARING WILL BE
DELAYED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN LAST PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FINALLY EXITS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP MIX DOWN 15-25KT 850MB WINDS AND DRIER
AIR WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PERIODIC WIND GUSTS. ALSO LOWERED DEW
POINTS WITH THIS MIXING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE SHOWN A WARM
BIAS UNDER THIS MAINLY DRY WEDGE PATTERN. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...READINGS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO SATURDAY...BUT STILL UNDERCUT THE GFS/NAM MOS VALUES BY A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO
DIMINISH. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL TO THE COOLER GFS MOS VALUES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FROST TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE ON MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE FROM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 70S. BY LATE EVENING...SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WARMER
RIDGELINES COMPARED TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND THE LOW 50S.

FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING EARLY
EVENING. WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WOULD SAY THE MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY THAT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
HAIL. INSTABILITY WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT INCREASINGLY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FADE AROUND SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAINTAINING A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.
REGARDLESS...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FROST TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND
BECOME SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT THURSDAY
TO CONTINUE TO BE A PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE WEATHER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACCORDINGLY ON FRIDAY.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE...ENDING LAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION
THE LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. MAY SEE SOME PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS ESPCLY AROUND
DAN INTO THIS EVENING WITH ANY LOWER CIGS LIKELY REMAINING TO THE
SE OVERNIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.

WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW TO THE SE AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. EXPECT LIGHTER
SPEEDS ELSW ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KTS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY LIGHT/VRBL WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN
SE WEST VA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR LIKELY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 945 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE COMBINATION OF DRY/GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW AND HEATING WILL CAUSE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS DRYING AND STRONG HEATING WILL ALSO ALLOW FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS TO QUICKLY DECREASE ESPCLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT
SEE ANY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN SE
WVA WHERE PARAMETERS ARE MORE CRITICAL...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 10-15 MPH. THUS WILL HEADLINE THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR LOWERING HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
HOLD OFF ON ANY STATEMENTS PENDING CONDITIONS OVER FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/PH/WERT
FIRE WEATHER...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 201404
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1004 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY PROVIDING A
RETURN OF DRIER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OFF S CAROLINA THIS MORNING
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NE ACROSS THE REGION PER
MORNING RNK RAOB SHOWING A PWAT OF BELOW A QUARTER INCH. THIS DRY
AIR AND DEEP NE FLOW HAS ALREADY ACTED TO MIX OUT MOST CLOUD COVER
EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CI NORTH AND OVER THE FAR SE WHERE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AROUND THE SYSTEM. MAY STILL
SEE SOME INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTRW
THINKING MAINLY SUNNY/COMFORTABLE UNDER LOWERING DEWPOINTS WITH A
GUSTY NE WIND LINGERING EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE GRADIENT PERSISTS
A BIT LONGER. MORNING THICKNESS GIVEN HEATING OF DRY AIR...AND
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE 85H COOL POCKET SUPPORTS UNIFORM HIGHS IN
THE 60S...WITH PERHAPS SOME SPOTS GETTING TO AROUND 70 LATE SO
BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE IN SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A FEW SPRINKLES/SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WERE STILL OBSERVED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

GFS ILLUSTRATED THIS AREA OF PRECIP WELL IN ITS 700MB-300MB OMEGA
FORECAST WHICH IS PUSHED EAST BY 12Z. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNDER A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
DEW POINTS FALLING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REGION-WIDE LATER THIS MORNING.

DISCOUNTED THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH TRIES TO SURGE 850MB THETA-E
AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND.

AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS TODAY...CLOUDS WILL THIN FROM
WEST TO EAST ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. CLEARING WILL BE
DELAYED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN LAST PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FINALLY EXITS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP MIX DOWN 15-25KT 850MB WINDS AND DRIER
AIR WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PERIODIC WIND GUSTS. ALSO LOWERED DEW
POINTS WITH THIS MIXING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE SHOWN A WARM
BIAS UNDER THIS MAINLY DRY WEDGE PATTERN. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...READINGS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO SATURDAY...BUT STILL UNDERCUT THE GFS/NAM MOS VALUES BY A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO
DIMINISH. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL TO THE COOLER GFS MOS VALUES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FROST TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE ON MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE FROM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 70S. BY LATE EVENING...SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WARMER
RIDGELINES COMPARED TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND THE LOW 50S.

FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING EARLY
EVENING. WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WOULD SAY THE MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY THAT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
HAIL. INSTABILITY WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT INCREASINGLY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FADE AROUND SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAINTAINING A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.
REGARDLESS...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FROST TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND
BECOME SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT THURSDAY
TO CONTINUE TO BE A PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE WEATHER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACCORDINGLY ON FRIDAY.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE...ENDING LAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION
THE LONGEST.
&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IR SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THINNING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ALL TAF SITES REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR
TO INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING.

DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH CLEARING SKIES MAY
BRING SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 15-20KTS BETWEEN 15-23Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR
CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 945 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE COMBINATION OF DRY/GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW AND HEATING WILL CAUSE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS DRYING AND STRONG HEATING WILL ALSO ALLOW FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS TO QUICKLY DECREASE ESPCLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT
SEE ANY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN SE
WVA WHERE PARAMETERS ARE MORE CRITICAL...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 10-15 MPH. THUS WILL HEADLINE THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR LOWERING HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
HOLD OFF ON ANY STATEMENTS PENDING CONDITIONS OVER FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PH/WERT
FIRE WEATHER...JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 201121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY PROVIDING A
RETURN OF DRIER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A FEW SPRINKLES/SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WERE STILL OBSERVED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

GFS ILLUSTRATED THIS AREA OF PRECIP WELL IN ITS 700MB-300MB OMEGA
FORECAST WHICH IS PUSHED EAST BY 12Z. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNDER A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
DEW POINTS FALLING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REGION-WIDE LATER THIS MORNING.

DISCOUNTED THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH TRIES TO SURGE 850MB THETA-E
AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND.

AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS TODAY...CLOUDS WILL THIN FROM
WEST TO EAST ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. CLEARING WILL BE
DELAYED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN LAST PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FINALLY EXITS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP MIX DOWN 15-25KT 850MB WINDS AND DRIER
AIR WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PERIODIC WIND GUSTS. ALSO LOWERED DEW
POINTS WITH THIS MIXING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE SHOWN A WARM
BIAS UNDER THIS MAINLY DRY WEDGE PATTERN. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...READINGS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO SATURDAY...BUT STILL UNDERCUT THE GFS/NAM MOS VALUES BY A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO
DIMINISH. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL TO THE COOLER GFS MOS VALUES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FROST TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE ON MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE FROM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 70S. BY LATE EVENING...SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WARMER
RIDGELINES COMPARED TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND THE LOW 50S.

FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING EARLY
EVENING. WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WOULD SAY THE MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY THAT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
HAIL. INSTABILITY WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT INCREASINGLY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FADE AROUND SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAINTAINING A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.
REGARDLESS...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FROST TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND
BECOME SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT THURSDAY
TO CONTINUE TO BE A PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE WEATHER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACCORDINGLY ON FRIDAY.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE...ENDING LAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION
THE LONGEST.&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IR SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THINNING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ALL TAF SITES REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR
TO INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING.

DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH CLEARING SKIES MAY
BRING SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 15-20KTS BETWEEN 15-23Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR
CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY.

&&


.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PH/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 200753
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY PROVIDING A
RETURN OF DRIER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A FEW SPRINKLES/SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WERE STILL OBSERVED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

GFS ILLUSTRATED THIS AREA OF PRECIP WELL IN ITS 700MB-300MB OMEGA
FORECAST WHICH IS PUSHED EAST BY 12Z. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNDER A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
DEW POINTS FALLING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REGION-WIDE LATER THIS MORNING.

DISCOUNTED THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH TRIES TO SURGE 850MB THETA-E
AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND.

AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS TODAY...CLOUDS WILL THIN FROM
WEST TO EAST ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. CLEARING WILL BE
DELAYED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN LAST PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FINALLY EXITS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP MIX DOWN 15-25KT 850MB WINDS AND DRIER
AIR WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PERIODIC WIND GUSTS. ALSO LOWERED DEW
POINTS WITH THIS MIXING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE SHOWN A WARM
BIAS UNDER THIS MAINLY DRY WEDGE PATTERN. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...READINGS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO SATURDAY...BUT STILL UNDERCUT THE GFS/NAM MOS VALUES BY A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO
DIMINISH. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL TO THE COOLER GFS MOS VALUES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FROST TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE ON MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE FROM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 70S. BY LATE EVENING...SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WARMER
RIDGELINES COMPARED TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND THE LOW 50S.

FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING EARLY
EVENING. WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WOULD SAY THE MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY THAT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
HAIL. INSTABILITY WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT INCREASINGLY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FADE AROUND SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAINTAINING A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.
REGARDLESS...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FROST TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND
BECOME SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT THURSDAY
TO CONTINUE TO BE A PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE WEATHER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACCORDINGLY ON FRIDAY.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE...ENDING LAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION
THE LONGEST.&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE
FORECAST AREA...KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY CLIP THOSE AREAS FROM
KDAN SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DRIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NC. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS...CANOPY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH CLEARING SKIES MAY
BRING SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 15-20KTS BETWEEN 15-23Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR
CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PH/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 200527
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
127 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT
EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY PROVIDING A RETURN
OF DRIER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT SATURDAY...

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORTING EARLIER GFS MODEL DEPICTION OF
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST TO AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NC/VA STATE LINE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED OFF TO
THE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS THROUGH MOIST MID LAYER
MOVES AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA.

AS A RESULT...JUST ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO BOOST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH-CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR IN LOWER LEVELS SHOULD ENSURE THAT
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA STATE
LINE REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...SO NO
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED.

AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
DEFORMATION TYPE AXIS AROUND THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SE GA REMAINS
PERSISTENT ATTM WITH A LINGERING BAND OF RAIN MOSTLY OVER NW NC
WHERE FEED OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH REMAINS BEST. HOWEVER
FARTHER NORTH...DRYING CONTINUES UNDER A MORE PREDOMINANT NE FLOW
WITH QUITE A DROPOFF IN MOISTURE CROSSING THE VA/NC BORDER. UPPER
LOW WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO MOVE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE BEING
BLOCKED EAST TO OFF THE SE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LEFTOVER DEFORMATION BAND OVERNIGHT
IN JUST HOW LONG AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND WHETHER
OR NOT IT JOGS BACK NORTH AS ANOTHER WAVE PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LATEST GFS AGAIN REMAINS WETTEST IN KEEPING PCPN GOING FROM NW NC
INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...WHILE THE EC/HRRR LESS WITH ONLY SPOTTY
RESIDUAL -RA...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS DRY. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE
OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT DRY ADVECTION. OTRW MIXTURE OF HIGH/MID
CLOUDS LIKELY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PERHAPS PUSHING BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE ALOFT. KEPT LOW
TEMPS SIMILAR TO MOS EXCEPT COLDER NW VALLEYS WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD BE BEST.

UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY TO ALLOW
A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STRENGTHENS UNDER GRADUAL SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR BY AFTERNOON PER MODEL RH CROSS
SECTIONS WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 GIVEN
HEATING OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHT 85H WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. HOWEVER...ONE LAST COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE FOR PARTS OF THE NEW
RIVER...GREENBRIER AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS.

BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL START TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
WITH THE CLOUDS WILL COME INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
CROSSES THE REGION. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL OFFER THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DESPITE
MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE PRECIPITATION...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY. A MIX OF MID 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOKS
PROMISING ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS
THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BY MIDNIGHT...ALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IS A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THANKS TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY...WE STILL EXPECT WINDS TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV IN THE MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS SE WV
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS WEAKEN AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND BECOME SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WHILE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR GOOD
WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TO BE
A PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
WEATHER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCORDINGLY ON FRIDAY.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE...ENDING LAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE
PRECIPITATION THE LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE
FORECAST AREA...KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY CLIP THOSE AREAS FROM
KDAN SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DRIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NC. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS...CANOPY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH CLEARING SKIES MAY
BRING SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 15-20KTS BETWEEN 15-23Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR
CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/WERT
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PH/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 200017
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
817 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT
EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY PROVIDING A RETURN
OF DRIER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT SATURDAY...

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORTING EARLIER GFS MODEL DEPICTION OF
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST TO AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NC/VA STATE LINE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED OFF TO
THE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS THROUGH MOIST MID LAYER
MOVES AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA.

AS A RESULT...JUST ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO BOOST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH-CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR IN LOWER LEVELS SHOULD ENSURE THAT
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA STATE
LINE REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...SO NO
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED.

AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
DEFORMATION TYPE AXIS AROUND THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SE GA REMAINS
PERSISTENT ATTM WITH A LINGERING BAND OF RAIN MOSTLY OVER NW NC
WHERE FEED OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH REMAINS BEST. HOWEVER
FARTHER NORTH...DRYING CONTINUES UNDER A MORE PREDOMINANT NE FLOW
WITH QUITE A DROPOFF IN MOISTURE CROSSING THE VA/NC BORDER. UPPER
LOW WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO MOVE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE BEING
BLOCKED EAST TO OFF THE SE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LEFTOVER DEFORMATION BAND OVERNIGHT
IN JUST HOW LONG AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND WHETHER
OR NOT IT JOGS BACK NORTH AS ANOTHER WAVE PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LATEST GFS AGAIN REMAINS WETTEST IN KEEPING PCPN GOING FROM NW NC
INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...WHILE THE EC/HRRR LESS WITH ONLY SPOTTY
RESIDUAL -RA...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS DRY. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE
OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT DRY ADVECTION. OTRW MIXTURE OF HIGH/MID
CLOUDS LIKELY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PERHAPS PUSHING BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE ALOFT. KEPT LOW
TEMPS SIMILAR TO MOS EXCEPT COLDER NW VALLEYS WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD BE BEST.

UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY TO ALLOW
A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STRENGTHENS UNDER GRADUAL SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR BY AFTERNOON PER MODEL RH CROSS
SECTIONS WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 GIVEN
HEATING OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHT 85H WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. HOWEVER...ONE LAST COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE FOR PARTS OF THE NEW
RIVER...GREENBRIER AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS.

BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL START TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
WITH THE CLOUDS WILL COME INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
CROSSES THE REGION. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL OFFER THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DESPITE
MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE PRECIPITATION...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY. A MIX OF MID 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOKS
PROMISING ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS
THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BY MIDNIGHT...ALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IS A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THANKS TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY...WE STILL EXPECT WINDS TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV IN THE MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS SE WV
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS WEAKEN AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND BECOME SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WHILE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR GOOD
WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TO BE
A PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
WEATHER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCORDINGLY ON FRIDAY.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE...ENDING LAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE
PRECIPITATION THE LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DRIER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY A MID TO HIGH BKN/OVC CANOPY IN PLACE.
EXPECT THIS OVERALL TREND TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE VA/NC STATE LINE.

LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO OUR SOUTH WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
TEMPORARY NORTHWARD PUSH OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...REMAINING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
NC/VA STATE LINE. PROXIMITY OF RAIN SHIELD AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY HELP LOWER CEILING AT KDAN BACK DOWN TO NEAR (BUT NOT
LIKELY BELOW) 3K FT BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT AS THIS WAVE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ANY THREAT OF LOWER
CEILINGS AT KDAN SHOULD ERODE BACK TO PREVAILING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CANOPY BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY STILL HAVE SOME MID/HIGH DECK CIGS
ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOW CLEARING TAKES PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST BY/DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR
CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/WERT
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/RCS/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 192331
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
731 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT
EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY PROVIDING A RETURN
OF DRIER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEFORMATION TYPE AXIS AROUND THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SE GA REMAINS
PERSISTENT ATTM WITH A LINGERING BAND OF RAIN MOSTLY OVER NW NC
WHERE FEED OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH REMAINS BEST. HOWEVER
FARTHER NORTH...DRYING CONTINUES UNDER A MORE PREDOMINANT NE FLOW
WITH QUITE A DROPOFF IN MOISTURE CROSSING THE VA/NC BORDER. UPPER
LOW WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO MOVE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE BEING
BLOCKED EAST TO OFF THE SE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LEFTOVER DEFORMATION BAND OVERNIGHT
IN JUST HOW LONG AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND WHETHER
OR NOT IT JOGS BACK NORTH AS ANOTHER WAVE PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LATEST GFS AGAIN REMAINS WETTEST IN KEEPING PCPN GOING FROM NW NC
INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...WHILE THE EC/HRRR LESS WITH ONLY SPOTTY
RESIDUAL -RA...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS DRY. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE
OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT DRY ADVECTION. OTRW MIXTURE OF HIGH/MID
CLOUDS LIKELY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PERHAPS PUSHING BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE ALOFT. KEPT LOW
TEMPS SIMILAR TO MOS EXCEPT COLDER NW VALLEYS WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD BE BEST.

UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY TO ALLOW
A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STRENGTHENS UNDER GRADUAL SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR BY AFTERNOON PER MODEL RH CROSS
SECTIONS WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 GIVEN
HEATING OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHT 85H WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. HOWEVER...ONE LAST COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE FOR PARTS OF THE NEW
RIVER...GREENBRIER AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS.

BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL START TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
WITH THE CLOUDS WILL COME INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
CROSSES THE REGION. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL OFFER THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DESPITE
MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE PRECIPITATION...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY. A MIX OF MID 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOKS
PROMISING ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS
THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BY MIDNIGHT...ALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IS A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THANKS TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY...WE STILL EXPECT WINDS TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV IN THE MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS SE WV
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS WEAKEN AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND BECOME SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WHILE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR GOOD
WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TO BE
A PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
WEATHER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCORDINGLY ON FRIDAY.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE...ENDING LAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE
PRECIPITATION THE LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DRIER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY A MID TO HIGH BKN/OVC CANOPY IN PLACE.
EXPECT THIS OVERALL TREND TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE VA/NC STATE LINE.

LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO OUR SOUTH WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
TEMPORARY NORTHWARD PUSH OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...REMAINING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
NC/VA STATE LINE. PROXIMITY OF RAIN SHIELD AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY HELP LOWER CEILING AT KDAN BACK DOWN TO NEAR (BUT NOT
LIKELY BELOW) 3K FT BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT AS THIS WAVE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ANY THREAT OF LOWER
CEILINGS AT KDAN SHOULD ERODE BACK TO PREVAILING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CANOPY BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY STILL HAVE SOME MID/HIGH DECK CIGS
ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOW CLEARING TAKES PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST BY/DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR
CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/RCS/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 191859
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
259 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT
EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY PROVIDING A RETURN
OF DRIER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEFORMATION TYPE AXIS AROUND THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SE GA REMAINS
PERSISTENT ATTM WITH A LINGERING BAND OF RAIN MOSTLY OVER NW NC
WHERE FEED OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH REMAINS BEST. HOWEVER
FARTHER NORTH...DRYING CONTINUES UNDER A MORE PREDOMINANT NE FLOW
WITH QUITE A DROPOFF IN MOISTURE CROSSING THE VA/NC BORDER. UPPER
LOW WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO MOVE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE BEING
BLOCKED EAST TO OFF THE SE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LEFTOVER DEFORMATION BAND OVERNIGHT
IN JUST HOW LONG AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND WHETHER
OR NOT IT JOGS BACK NORTH AS ANOTHER WAVE PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LATEST GFS AGAIN REMAINS WETTEST IN KEEPING PRECIP GOING FROM NW
NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...WHILE THE EC/HRRR LESS WITH ONLY SPOTTY
RESIDUAL -RA...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS DRY. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE
OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT DRY ADVECTION. OTRW MIXTURE OF HIGH/MID
CLOUDS LIKELY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PERHAPS PUSHING BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE ALOFT. KEPT LOW
TEMPS SIMILAR TO MOS EXCEPT COLDER NW VALLEYS WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD BE BEST.

UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY TO ALLOW
A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STRENGTHENS UNDER GRADUAL SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR BY AFTERNOON PER MODEL RH CROSS
SECTIONS WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 GIVEN
HEATING OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHT 85H WARMING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. HOWEVER...ONE LAST COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE FOR PARTS OF THE NEW
RIVER...GREENBRIER AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS.

BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL START TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
WITH THE CLOUDS WILL COME INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
CROSSES THE REGION. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL OFFER THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DESPITE
MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE PRECIPITATION...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY. A MIX OF MID 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOKS
PROMISING ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS
THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BY MIDNIGHT...ALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IS A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THANKS TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY...WE STILL EXPECT WINDS TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV IN THE MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS SE WV
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS WEAKEN AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND BECOME SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WHILE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR GOOD
WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TO BE
A PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
WEATHER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCORDINGLY ON FRIDAY.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE...ENDING LAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE
PRECIPITATION THE LONGEST.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DRIER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS AT
ALL TAF SITES ATTM WITH MOSTLY A MID TO HIGH BKN/OVC CANOPY IN
PLACE. EXPECT THIS OVERALL TREND TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS STAYING ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE IN NW
NORTH CAROLINA AND JUST SOUTH OF DAN. MAY SEE SOME LOW END VFR
CIGS DEVELOP NORTH INTO DAN BEFORE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE/PRECIP
STARTS TO JOG BACK NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS
OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY -RA ACROSS THE DAN VICINITY
AS WELL BUT OVERALL VFR WITH DRY WEATHER ELSW THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE MAY BRING PRECIP BACK NORTH AT LEAST INTO
DAN THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH VFR CIGS NORTH TO ROA/LYH
OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS COULD BE OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT DRY
ADVECTION AND LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS...WILL KEEP DAN HIGH END
MVFR CIGS WITH VFR VSBYS IN -RA LATER TONIGHT...AND MAINLY SCTD
LOW CLOUDS WITH HIGHER MID DECK CIGS ELSW FROM BCB-ROA-LYH FOR
NOW.

NE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ESPCLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BRINGING GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAY STILL HAVE SOME MID DECK CIGS ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE SLOW CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING PERIODS OF MVFR FOR TUESDAY.
FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE WEST VA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 191651
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1251 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED
BY BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPDATED TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS ANOTHER CAT OR TWO ESPCLY NORTH/EAST
GIVEN MORE BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLDNS ONGOING NORTH OF THE
PERSISTENT RAINBAND ACROSS NW NC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADIENT
BETWEEN MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO PERHAPS ONLY AROUND 50 FAR SW WHERE
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL CONTINUE. ALSO LOWERED POPS IN SOUTHERN VA TO
REFLECT DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WHILE
MAINTAINING CAT POPS WATAUGA/WIKLES AND YADKIN CTYS.

AS OF 930 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ELONGATED BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA REMAINS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LATEST MORNING
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG NE FLUX OF DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS EVIDENCED VIA THE RNK RAOB. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME
DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH TO NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LATEST HRRR SOLN THAT
ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT ALL THE PRECIP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. GFS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE AXIS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MORE EASTERLY
INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ONLY DRIFTS TO OFF THE
SE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOME SUN NORTH...TO CLOUDS CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF -RA VA/NC BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH AS THE BAND TENDS TO STRETCH OUT WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING CAT/LIKELY POPS A
WHILE LONGER ACROSS MUCH OF NW NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WITH A
QUICK DROPOFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FROM JUST SOUTH OF HIWAY 460 AND
POINTS NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO
TOP 50 UNDER THE RAIN WHILE REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S FAR
NORTH/WEST WITH 56-63 BCB-ROA-LYH CORRIDOR PENDING DEGREE OF ANY
BREAKS. THUS INCREASED THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON SINCE ALREADY
ABOVE HIGHS IN SPOTS NORTH OF THE MAIN RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
MOVING...INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. FINALLY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN HAVE ALL
CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. EXPECT -RA TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
AN AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO WHERE IT IS...NAMELY
MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM TNB-HLX-LYH. WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEE LITTLE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN FROM THESE POINTS...BUT BY THE SAME
TOKEN...LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE COAST...ALLOWING DRIER NE FLOW TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN SOME MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH CLEARLY DEPICT A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NC THIS EVENING...PROLONGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL AND EXTENDED LONGER INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND -RA...SOME WHAT OF AN INSITU WEDGE REINFORCED
WITH  NE FLOW AROUND SE U.S. DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP THE PIEDMONT THE COOLEST TODAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MOS...WHICH WAS THE COOLEST AMONG THE MAV/MET/ECS. HOWEVER...EVEN
UNDERCUT IT BY ABOUT ONE CATEGORY IN THE RAINY PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NC WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50. THE WARMEST
AREAS TODAY SHOULD BE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...LWB-BLF-
MKJ...WHERE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND GENERALLY
E-SE TO THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SC AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR EASTER SUNDAY...MAY SEE A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER
THESE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...
RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. WITH THE COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER RIDGES. LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FOR MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES DESPITE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE WARMER AIR POOLING IN FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL MAKE FOR MILD MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN FORECAST MODELS ALL INDICATE DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP...WHILE STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...A FEW OF WHICH
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...BOTH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
IN CAA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN ADDITION TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DRIER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS AT
ALL TAF SITES ATTM WITH MOSTLY A MID TO HIGH BKN/OVC CANOPY IN
PLACE. EXPECT THIS OVERALL TREND TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS STAYING ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE IN NW
NORTH CAROLINA AND JUST SOUTH OF DAN. MAY SEE SOME LOW END VFR
CIGS DEVELOP NORTH INTO DAN BEFORE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE/PRECIP
STARTS TO JOG BACK NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS
OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY -RA ACROSS THE DAN VICINITY
AS WELL BUT OVERALL VFR WITH DRY WEATHER ELSW THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE MAY BRING PRECIP BACK NORTH AT LEAST INTO
DAN THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH VFR CIGS NORTH TO ROA/LYH
OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS COULD BE OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT DRY
ADVECTION AND LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS...WILL KEEP DAN HIGH END
MVFR CIGS WITH VFR VSBYS IN -RA LATER TONIGHT...AND MAINLY SCTD
LOW CLOUDS WITH HIGHER MID DECK CIGS ELSW FROM BCB-ROA-LYH FOR
NOW.

NE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ESPCLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BRINGING GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAY STILL HAVE SOME MID DECK CIGS ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE SLOW CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING PERIODS OF MVFR FOR TUESDAY.
FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE WEST VA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...JH/RAB/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 191604 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1204 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED
BY BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPDATED TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS ANOTHER CAT OR TWO ESPCLY NORTH/EAST
GIVEN MORE BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLDNS ONGOING NORTH OF THE
PERSISTENT RAINBAND ACROSS NW NC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADIENT
BETWEEN MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO PERHAPS ONLY AROUND 50 FAR SW WHERE
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL CONTINUE. ALSO LOWERED POPS IN SOUTHERN VA TO
REFLECT DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WHILE
MAINTAINING CAT POPS WATAUGA/WIKLES AND YADKIN CTYS.

AS OF 930 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ELONGATED BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA REMAINS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LATEST MORNING
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG NE FLUX OF DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS EVIDENCED VIA THE RNK RAOB. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME
DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH TO NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LATEST HRRR SOLN THAT
ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT ALL THE PRECIP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. GFS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE AXIS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MORE EASTERLY
INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ONLY DRIFTS TO OFF THE
SE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOME SUN NORTH...TO CLOUDS CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF -RA VA/NC BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH AS THE BAND TENDS TO STRETCH OUT WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING CAT/LIKELY POPS A
WHILE LONGER ACROSS MUCH OF NW NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WITH A
QUICK DROPOFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FROM JUST SOUTH OF HIWAY 460 AND
POINTS NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO
TOP 50 UNDER THE RAIN WHILE REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S FAR
NORTH/WEST WITH 56-63 BCB-ROA-LYH CORRIDOR PENDING DEGREE OF ANY
BREAKS. THUS INCREASED THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON SINCE ALREADY
ABOVE HIGHS IN SPOTS NORTH OF THE MAIN RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
MOVING...INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. FINALLY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN HAVE ALL
CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. EXPECT -RA TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
AN AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO WHERE IT IS...NAMELY
MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM TNB-HLX-LYH. WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEE LITTLE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN FROM THESE POINTS...BUT BY THE SAME
TOKEN...LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE COAST...ALLOWING DRIER NE FLOW TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN SOME MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH CLEARLY DEPICT A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NC THIS EVENING...PROLONGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL AND EXTENDED LONGER INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND -RA...SOME WHAT OF AN INSITU WEDGE REINFORCED
WITH  NE FLOW AROUND SE U.S. DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP THE PIEDMONT THE COOLEST TODAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MOS...WHICH WAS THE COOLEST AMONG THE MAV/MET/ECS. HOWEVER...EVEN
UNDERCUT IT BY ABOUT ONE CATEGORY IN THE RAINY PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NC WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50. THE WARMEST
AREAS TODAY SHOULD BE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...LWB-BLF-
MKJ...WHERE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND GENERALLY
E-SE TO THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SC AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR EASTER SUNDAY...MAY SEE A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER
THESE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...
RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. WITH THE COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER RIDGES. LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FOR MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES DESPITE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE WARMER AIR POOLING IN FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL MAKE FOR MILD MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN FORECAST MODELS ALL INDICATE DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP...WHILE STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...A FEW OF WHICH
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...BOTH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
IN CAA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN ADDITION TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF
AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTH SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...INCLUDING DAN. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY REACH
ROA/LYH...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBY. THE -RA CONTINUES TO FALL
OUT OF VFR CIGS...MOSTLY AOA 080 AT THIS TIME. VERY DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN...BUT CIGS APPEAR
DESTINED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LOW END VFR LYH-DAN FOR A PERIOD LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...SFC FLOW NOW NE AS OPPOSED TO
SE...WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST MAKING IT HARD TO REALIZE ANYTHING WORSE THAN VFR AT
THIS POINT. OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DAN...BUT
ELSEWHERE DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH -RA TO WARRANT MENTION OF ANY VSBYS
LESS THAN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW. EXPECT ENE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFT 00Z...BUT LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE
WEST VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...RAB/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 191402
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1002 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED
BY BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ELONGATED BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA REMAINS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LATEST MORNING
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG NE FLUX OF DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS EVIDENCED VIA THE RNK RAOB. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME
DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH TO NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LATEST HRRR SOLN THAT
ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT ALL THE PRECIP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. GFS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE AXIS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MORE EASTERLY
INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ONLY DRIFTS TO OFF THE
SE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOME SUN NORTH...TO CLOUDS CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF -RA VA/NC BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH AS THE BAND TENDS TO STRETCH OUT WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING CAT/LIKELY POPS A
WHILE LONGER ACROSS MUCH OF NW NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WITH A
QUICK DROPOFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FROM JUST SOUTH OF HIWAY 460 AND
POINTS NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO
TOP 50 UNDER THE RAIN WHILE REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S FAR
NORTH/WEST WITH 56-63 BCB-ROA-LYH CORRIDOR PENDING DEGREE OF ANY
BREAKS. THUS INCREASED THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON SINCE ALREADY
ABOVE HIGHS IN SPOTS NORTH OF THE MAIN RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
MOVING...INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. FINALLY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN HAVE ALL
CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. EXPECT -RA TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
AN AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO WHERE IT IS...NAMELY
MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM TNB-HLX-LYH. WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEE LITTLE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN FROM THESE POINTS...BUT BY THE SAME
TOKEN...LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE COAST...ALLOWING DRIER NE FLOW TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN SOME MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH CLEARLY DEPICT A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NC THIS EVENING...PROLONGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL AND EXTENDED LONGER INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND -RA...SOME WHAT OF AN INSITU WEDGE REINFORCED
WITH  NE FLOW AROUND SE U.S. DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP THE PIEDMONT THE COOLEST TODAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MOS...WHICH WAS THE COOLEST AMONG THE MAV/MET/ECS. HOWEVER...EVEN
UNDERCUT IT BY ABOUT ONE CATEGORY IN THE RAINY PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NC WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50. THE WARMEST
AREAS TODAY SHOULD BE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...LWB-BLF-
MKJ...WHERE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND GENERALLY
E-SE TO THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SC AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR EASTER SUNDAY...MAY SEE A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER
THESE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...
RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. WITH THE COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER RIDGES. LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FOR MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES DESPITE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE WARMER AIR POOLING IN FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL MAKE FOR MILD MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN FORECAST MODELS ALL INDICATE DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP...WHILE STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...A FEW OF WHICH
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...BOTH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
IN CAA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN ADDITION TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF
AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTH SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...INCLUDING DAN. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY REACH
ROA/LYH...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBY. THE -RA CONTINUES TO FALL
OUT OF VFR CIGS...MOSTLY AOA 080 AT THIS TIME. VERY DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN...BUT CIGS APPEAR
DESTINED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LOW END VFR LYH-DAN FOR A PERIOD LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...SFC FLOW NOW NE AS OPPOSED TO
SE...WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST MAKING IT HARD TO REALIZE ANYTHING WORSE THAN VFR AT
THIS POINT. OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DAN...BUT
ELSEWHERE DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH -RA TO WARRANT MENTION OF ANY VSBYS
LESS THAN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW. EXPECT ENE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFT 00Z...BUT LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE
WEST VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...RAB/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 191142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
MOVING...INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. FINALLY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN HAVE ALL
CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. EXPECT -RA TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
AN AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO WHERE IT IS...NAMELY
MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM TNB-HLX-LYH. WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEE LITTLE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN FROM THESE POINTS...BUT BY THE SAME
TOKEN...LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE COAST...ALLOWING DRIER NE FLOW TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN SOME MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH CLEARLY DEPICT A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NC THIS EVENING...PROLONGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL AND EXTENDED LONGER INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND -RA...SOME WHAT OF AN INSITU WEDGE REINFORCED
WITH  NE FLOW AROUND SE U.S. DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP THE PIEDMONT THE COOLEST TODAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MOS...WHICH WAS THE COOLEST AMONG THE MAV/MET/ECS. HOWEVER...EVEN
UNDERCUT IT BY ABOUT ONE CATEGORY IN THE RAINY PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NC WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50. THE WARMEST
AREAS TODAY SHOULD BE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...LWB-BLF-
MKJ...WHERE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND GENERALLY
E-SE TO THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SC AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR EASTER SUNDAY...MAY SEE A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER
THESE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...
RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. WITH THE COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER RIDGES. LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FOR MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES DESPITE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE WARMER AIR POOLING IN FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL MAKE FOR MILD MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN FORECAST MODELS ALL INDICATE DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP...WHILE STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...A FEW OF WHICH
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...BOTH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
IN CAA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN ADDITION TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF
AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTH SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...INCLUDING DAN. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY REACH
ROA/LYH...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBY. THE -RA CONTINUES TO FALL
OUT OF VFR CIGS...MOSTLY AOA 080 AT THIS TIME. VERY DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN...BUT CIGS APPEAR
DESTINED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LOW END VFR LYH-DAN FOR A PERIOD LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...SFC FLOW NOW NE AS OPPOSED TO
SE...WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST MAKING IT HARD TO REALIZE ANYTHING WORSE THAN VFR AT
THIS POINT. OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DAN...BUT
ELSEWHERE DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH -RA TO WARRANT MENTION OF ANY VSBYS
LESS THAN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW. EXPECT ENE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFT 00Z...BUT LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE
WEST VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...RAB/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 190832
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
432 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
MOVING...INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. FINALLY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN HAVE ALL
CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. EXPECT -RA TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
AN AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO WHERE IT IS...NAMELY
MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM TNB-HLX-LYH. WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEE LITTLE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN FROM THESE POINTS...BUT BY THE SAME
TOKEN...LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE COAST...ALLOWING DRIER NE FLOW TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN SOME MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH CLEARLY DEPICT A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NC THIS EVENING...PROLONGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL AND EXTENDED LONGER INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND -RA...SOME WHAT OF AN INSITU WEDGE REINFORCED
WITH  NE FLOW AROUND SE U.S. DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP THE PIEDMONT THE COOLEST TODAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MOS...WHICH WAS THE COOLEST AMONG THE MAV/MET/ECS. HOWEVER...EVEN
UNDERCUT IT BY ABOUT ONE CATEGORY IN THE RAINY PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NC WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50. THE WARMEST
AREAS TODAY SHOULD BE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...LWB-BLF-
MKJ...WHERE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND GENERALLY
E-SE TO THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SC AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR EASTER SUNDAY...MAY SEE A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER
THESE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...
RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. WITH THE COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER RIDGES. LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FOR MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES DESPITE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE WARMER AIR POOLING IN FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL MAKE FOR MILD MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN FORECAST MODELS ALL INDICATE DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP...WHILE STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...A FEW OF WHICH
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...BOTH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
IN CAA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN ADDITION TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF
AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS WAS ADVECTING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE
REGION...WHICH HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NC AND
SOUTHEAST VA...INCLUDING DAN. MUCH OF THIS -RA STILL FALLING OUT
OF CIGS AOA100...WITH SEVERAL AWOS/ASOS STATIONS IN THE AREA
REPORTING CLR BLO 120 WITH -RA. VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN...BUT CIGS APPEAR DESTINED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LOW END
VFR LYH-DAN FOR A PERIOD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS FURTHER
EAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...SFC FLOW
NOW NE AS OPPOSED TO SE...WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. FEEL THAT LOW CLOUDS WHICH
ARRIVED LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING YESTERDAY SHOULD NOT OCCUR
TODAY...DESPITE PRESENCE OF RAIN. OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE LYH/DAN...BUT ELSEWHERE DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH -RA OR -DZ
TO WARRANT MENTION OF ANY VSBYS LESS THAN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW. EXPECT ENE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE
WEST VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...RAB/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 190640
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
240 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL PUSH SOME PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND INTO VIRGINIA UP TO ROUTE 460...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...

INCREASED POPS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST
LOCATIONS FROM DAN TO TNB WILL RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO 100 POPS WERE IN ORDER AT THIS POINT. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO T/TD. SKY COVER INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT ALL
AREAS THROUGH 18Z.

AS OF 947 PM EDT FRIDAY...

INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.



AS OF 806 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUDS/RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL
LOW THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE. OVERALL LEANED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION TONIGHT GIVEN DRY ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST
EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT THE ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR POPS SIMILAR TO
LATEST WPC WITH MOISTURE HOLDING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. MODELS
REMAIN IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CAMPS WITH NAM STILL KEEPING MOST OF
RAIN SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS HAS A DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS SRN VA/NW
NC BY SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST RUN OF RNK WRFARW WAS DRIER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH RAIN AND QPF FOR TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT
BETTER LIFT AND COLUMN SATURATION DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY SATURDAY
WHERE LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.


AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS/RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED
COASTAL LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND OFF
THE SE COAST SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS LATE. HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN IN SIMILAR CAMPS AS BEFORE
WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS HAS
A DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS SRN VA/NW NC BY MORNING...LEAVING THE
CANADIAN AND NEW EC BASICALLY IN BETWEEN WITH MOST RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTH/EAST BY EARLY SAT. LATEST CONSENSUS INCLUDING WPC
OUTPUT SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION IN ORDER TONIGHT GIVEN DRY
ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST EARLY SAT. THUS HAVE CUT BACK
ON POPS ENTERING THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH BETTER LIFT AND
COLUMN SATURATION AFTER MIDNIGHT NW NC INTO SOUTHERN VA EARLY SAT
WHERE MAINTAINED LOW LIKELYS FOR LIMITED QPF. NORTHWARD EXTENT
ALSO IFFY AS APPEARS THE BLUE RIDGE TO SERVE AS A BACKBOARD WITH
MID LEVEL DRY HOLDING ANY PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...SO
MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THESE SPOTS. OTRW MAINLY CLOUDY AND DRY ELSW
WITH UNIFORM LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHING OUT ALONG OR SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER SAT UNDER CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND SOUTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN LOOKS LIKE MOST -RA/DZ
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT LIKELY FROM LOW
CLOUDS/PRECIP SOUTH TO HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND LITTLE -RA NORTH AND
WEST. ENSEMBLES SHOW PRECIP PIVOTING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY BUT SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NE
THAN EAST WHICH SOMETIMES ACTS TO LIMIT PRECIP INTO AN ENHANCED
WEDGE. THEREFORE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH LINGERING LIKELY POPS
FAR SOUTH/SE DURING THE MORNING AND CHANCES UP TO 460...THEN
DRYING FROM NW TO SE SAT AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL EXITING
LATE. HIGH TEMPS VERY TRICKY WITH LARGE MOS SPREADS ATTM PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN WHICH COULD KEEP SOME SPOTS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IF PRECIP IS MORE WIDESPREAD. OTRW STAYING CLOSER TO
THE COOLER MAV MOS SOUTH/EAST BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH WHERE SOME
SUN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WHICH AFFECTED US ON SATURDAY SHOULD
SINK FAR ENOUGH SEWD TO PULL THE PCPN SHIELD OUT OF OUR AREA.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST COMBINED WITH NELY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A BRISK WIND OVER THE PIEDMONT.
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MODELS SPIT OUT SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WILL OPT TO KEEP MONDAY DRY
AND LEAVE POPS JUST BELOW THRESHOLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN WEATHER MAKER THOUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE CFROPA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD SUPPORT...AND AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LOOK TO DESTABILIZE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AND CONFINE CHC THUNDER TO
ERN AREAS. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE DATA TO INDICATE MORE THAN
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN CAA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WILL INDICATE THIS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS BREEZY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
QUIET WX FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF
AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS WAS ADVECTING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE
REGION...WHICH HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NC AND
SOUTHEAST VA...INCLUDING DAN. MUCH OF THIS -RA STILL FALLING OUT
OF CIGS AOA100...WITH SEVERAL AWOS/ASOS STATIONS IN THE AREA
REPORTING CLR BLO 120 WITH -RA. VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN...BUT CIGS APPEAR DESTINED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LOW END
VFR LYH-DAN FOR A PERIOD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS FURTHER
EAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...SFC FLOW
NOW NE AS OPPOSED TO SE...WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. FEEL THAT LOW CLOUDS WHICH
ARRIVED LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING YESTERDAY SHOULD NOT OCCUR
TODAY...DESPITE PRESENCE OF RAIN. OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE LYH/DAN...BUT ELSEWHERE DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH -RA OR -DZ
TO WARRANT MENTION OF ANY VSBYS LESS THAN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW. EXPECT ENE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE
WEST VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...RAB/KK/JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...RAB/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 190605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL PUSH SOME PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND INTO VIRGINIA UP TO ROUTE 460...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 947 PM EDT FRIDAY...

INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.



AS OF 806 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUDS/RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL
LOW THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE. OVERALL LEANED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION TONIGHT GIVEN DRY ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST
EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT THE ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR POPS SIMILAR TO
LATEST WPC WITH MOISTURE HOLDING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. MODELS
REMAIN IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CAMPS WITH NAM STILL KEEPING MOST OF
RAIN SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS HAS A DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS SRN VA/NW
NC BY SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST RUN OF RNK WRFARW WAS DRIER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH RAIN AND QPF FOR TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT
BETTER LIFT AND COLUMN SATURATION DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY SATURDAY
WHERE LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.


AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS/RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED
COASTAL LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND OFF
THE SE COAST SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS LATE. HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN IN SIMILAR CAMPS AS BEFORE
WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS HAS
A DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS SRN VA/NW NC BY MORNING...LEAVING THE
CANADIAN AND NEW EC BASICALLY IN BETWEEN WITH MOST RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTH/EAST BY EARLY SAT. LATEST CONSENSUS INCLUDING WPC
OUTPUT SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION IN ORDER TONIGHT GIVEN DRY
ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST EARLY SAT. THUS HAVE CUT BACK
ON POPS ENTERING THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH BETTER LIFT AND
COLUMN SATURATION AFTER MIDNIGHT NW NC INTO SOUTHERN VA EARLY SAT
WHERE MAINTAINED LOW LIKELYS FOR LIMITED QPF. NORTHWARD EXTENT
ALSO IFFY AS APPEARS THE BLUE RIDGE TO SERVE AS A BACKBOARD WITH
MID LEVEL DRY HOLDING ANY PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...SO
MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THESE SPOTS. OTRW MAINLY CLOUDY AND DRY ELSW
WITH UNIFORM LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHING OUT ALONG OR SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER SAT UNDER CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND SOUTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN LOOKS LIKE MOST -RA/DZ
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT LIKELY FROM LOW
CLOUDS/PRECIP SOUTH TO HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND LITTLE -RA NORTH AND
WEST. ENSEMBLES SHOW PRECIP PIVOTING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY BUT SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NE
THAN EAST WHICH SOMETIMES ACTS TO LIMIT PRECIP INTO AN ENHANCED
WEDGE. THEREFORE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH LINGERING LIKELY POPS
FAR SOUTH/SE DURING THE MORNING AND CHANCES UP TO 460...THEN
DRYING FROM NW TO SE SAT AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL EXITING
LATE. HIGH TEMPS VERY TRICKY WITH LARGE MOS SPREADS ATTM PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN WHICH COULD KEEP SOME SPOTS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IF PRECIP IS MORE WIDESPREAD. OTRW STAYING CLOSER TO
THE COOLER MAV MOS SOUTH/EAST BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH WHERE SOME
SUN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WHICH AFFECTED US ON SATURDAY SHOULD
SINK FAR ENOUGH SEWD TO PULL THE PCPN SHIELD OUT OF OUR AREA.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST COMBINED WITH NELY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A BRISK WIND OVER THE PIEDMONT.
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MODELS SPIT OUT SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WILL OPT TO KEEP MONDAY DRY
AND LEAVE POPS JUST BELOW THRESHOLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN WEATHER MAKER THOUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE CFROPA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD SUPPORT...AND AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LOOK TO DESTABILIZE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AND CONFINE CHC THUNDER TO
ERN AREAS. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE DATA TO INDICATE MORE THAN
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN CAA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WILL INDICATE THIS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS BREEZY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
QUIET WX FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF
AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS WAS ADVECTING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE
REGION...WHICH HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NC AND
SOUTHEAST VA...INCLUDING DAN. MUCH OF THIS -RA STILL FALLING OUT
OF CIGS AOA100...WITH SEVERAL AWOS/ASOS STATIONS IN THE AREA
REPORTING CLR BLO 120 WITH -RA. VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN...BUT CIGS APPEAR DESTINED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LOW END
VFR LYH-DAN FOR A PERIOD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS FURTHER
EAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...SFC FLOW
NOW NE AS OPPOSED TO SE...WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. FEEL THAT LOW CLOUDS WHICH
ARRIVED LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING YESTERDAY SHOULD NOT OCCUR
TODAY...DESPITE PRESENCE OF RAIN. OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE LYH/DAN...BUT ELSEWHERE DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH -RA OR -DZ
TO WARRANT MENTION OF ANY VSBYS LESS THAN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW. EXPECT ENE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE
WEST VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...RAB/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 190147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
947 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL PUSH SOME PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND INTO VIRGINIA UP TO ROUTE 460...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 947 PM EDT FRIDAY...

INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.



AS OF 806 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUDS/RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL
LOW THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE. OVERALL LEANED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION TONIGHT GIVEN DRY ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST
EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT THE ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR POPS SIMILAR TO
LATEST WPC WITH MOISTURE HOLDING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. MODELS
REMAIN IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CAMPS WITH NAM STILL KEEPING MOST OF
RAIN SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS HAS A DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS SRN VA/NW
NC BY SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST RUN OF RNK WRFARW WAS DRIER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH RAIN AND QPF FOR TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT
BETTER LIFT AND COLUMN SATURATION DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY SATURDAY
WHERE LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.


AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS/RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED
COASTAL LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND OFF
THE SE COAST SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS LATE. HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN IN SIMILAR CAMPS AS BEFORE
WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS HAS
A DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS SRN VA/NW NC BY MORNING...LEAVING THE
CANADIAN AND NEW EC BASICALLY IN BETWEEN WITH MOST RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTH/EAST BY EARLY SAT. LATEST CONSENSUS INCLUDING WPC
OUTPUT SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION IN ORDER TONIGHT GIVEN DRY
ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST EARLY SAT. THUS HAVE CUT BACK
ON POPS ENTERING THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH BETTER LIFT AND
COLUMN SATURATION AFTER MIDNIGHT NW NC INTO SOUTHERN VA EARLY SAT
WHERE MAINTAINED LOW LIKELYS FOR LIMITED QPF. NORTHWARD EXTENT
ALSO IFFY AS APPEARS THE BLUE RIDGE TO SERVE AS A BACKBOARD WITH
MID LEVEL DRY HOLDING ANY PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...SO
MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THESE SPOTS. OTRW MAINLY CLOUDY AND DRY ELSW
WITH UNIFORM LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHING OUT ALONG OR SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER SAT UNDER CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND SOUTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN LOOKS LIKE MOST -RA/DZ
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT LIKELY FROM LOW
CLOUDS/PRECIP SOUTH TO HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND LITTLE -RA NORTH AND
WEST. ENSEMBLES SHOW PRECIP PIVOTING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY BUT SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NE
THAN EAST WHICH SOMETIMES ACTS TO LIMIT PRECIP INTO AN ENHANCED
WEDGE. THEREFORE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH LINGERING LIKELY POPS
FAR SOUTH/SE DURING THE MORNING AND CHANCES UP TO 460...THEN
DRYING FROM NW TO SE SAT AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL EXITING
LATE. HIGH TEMPS VERY TRICKY WITH LARGE MOS SPREADS ATTM PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN WHICH COULD KEEP SOME SPOTS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IF PRECIP IS MORE WIDESPREAD. OTRW STAYING CLOSER TO
THE COOLER MAV MOS SOUTH/EAST BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH WHERE SOME
SUN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WHICH AFFECTED US ON SATURDAY SHOULD
SINK FAR ENOUGH SEWD TO PULL THE PCPN SHIELD OUT OF OUR AREA.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST COMBINED WITH NELY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A BRISK WIND OVER THE PIEDMONT.
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MODELS SPIT OUT SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WILL OPT TO KEEP MONDAY DRY
AND LEAVE POPS JUST BELOW THRESHOLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN WEATHER MAKER THOUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE CFROPA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD SUPPORT...AND AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LOOK TO DESTABILIZE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH LLIKELY POPS AND CONFINE CHC THUNDER TO
ERN AREAS. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE DATA TO INDICATE MORE THAN
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN CAA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WILL INDICATE THIS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS BREEZY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
QUIET WX FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVC-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING THEN LOWER TO LOW-
END VFR STARTING AROUND 02Z SAT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STILL EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN
QUESTION UNDER DRY MID LEVELS AND DEVELOPING NE FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN VARIED ON HOW FAR NORTH TO
TAKE LOWER CIGS AND RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND
PROVIDING A RANGE FROM MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT AT LWB TO DEVELOPING
IFR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. APPEARS
MVFR TO OCNL IFR MOST LIKELY FROM ROA-LYH SOUTH TO DAN WHILE A
PERIOD OF MVFR LIKELY AT BCB AND POSSIBLE AT BLF ALTHOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL INDUCED VSBY REDUCTIONS ALSO
IFFY WITH MVFR LIKELY AT DAN AND PERHAPS ROA/LYH IF THINGS
SATURATE ENOUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WHICH APPEARS POSSIBLE. ELSW
INCLUDING SOME -RA/DZ MENTION AT BCB AND BLF LATE BASED ON LATEST
NON NAM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

LIGHT/VRBL WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE RAIN MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL STAY UNDER 6KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN INCREASE AS LOW DRIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (DAN/LYH) COULD APPROACH 20KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BELT OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER THE UPPER
LOW SLOW TO EXIT. PERIODS OF -RA/DZ MAY ALSO LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE ROA/LYH/DAN COULD GET STUCK IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND SOME
LIMITED VSBY REDUCTION PENDING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL
ESPCLY THROUGH MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE
WEST VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 190006
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
806 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL PUSH SOME PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND INTO VIRGINIA UP TO ROUTE 460...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 806 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUDS/RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL
LOW THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE. OVERALL LEANED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION TONIGHT GIVEN DRY ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST
EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT THE ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR POPS SIMILAR TO
LATEST WPC WITH MOISTURE HOLDING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. MODELS
REMAIN IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CAMPS WITH NAM STILL KEEPING MOST OF
RAIN SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS HAS A DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS SRN VA/NW
NC BY SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST RUN OF RNK WRFARW WAS DRIER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH RAIN AND QPF FOR TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT
BETTER LIFT AND COLUMN SATURATION DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY SATURDAY
WHERE LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.


AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS/RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED
COASTAL LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND OFF
THE SE COAST SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS LATE. HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN IN SIMILAR CAMPS AS BEFORE
WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS HAS
A DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS SRN VA/NW NC BY MORNING...LEAVING THE
CANADIAN AND NEW EC BASICALLY IN BETWEEN WITH MOST RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTH/EAST BY EARLY SAT. LATEST CONSENSUS INCLUDING WPC
OUTPUT SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION IN ORDER TONIGHT GIVEN DRY
ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST EARLY SAT. THUS HAVE CUT BACK
ON POPS ENTERING THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH BETTER LIFT AND
COLUMN SATURATION AFTER MIDNIGHT NW NC INTO SOUTHERN VA EARLY SAT
WHERE MAINTAINED LOW LIKELYS FOR LIMITED QPF. NORTHWARD EXTENT
ALSO IFFY AS APPEARS THE BLUE RIDGE TO SERVE AS A BACKBOARD WITH
MID LEVEL DRY HOLDING ANY PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...SO
MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THESE SPOTS. OTRW MAINLY CLOUDY AND DRY ELSW
WITH UNIFORM LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHING OUT ALONG OR SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER SAT UNDER CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND SOUTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN LOOKS LIKE MOST -RA/DZ
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT LIKELY FROM LOW
CLOUDS/PRECIP SOUTH TO HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND LITTLE -RA NORTH AND
WEST. ENSEMBLES SHOW PRECIP PIVOTING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY BUT SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NE
THAN EAST WHICH SOMETIMES ACTS TO LIMIT PRECIP INTO AN ENHANCED
WEDGE. THEREFORE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH LINGERING LIKELY POPS
FAR SOUTH/SE DURING THE MORNING AND CHANCES UP TO 460...THEN
DRYING FROM NW TO SE SAT AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL EXITING
LATE. HIGH TEMPS VERY TRICKY WITH LARGE MOS SPREADS ATTM PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN WHICH COULD KEEP SOME SPOTS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IF PRECIP IS MORE WIDESPREAD. OTRW STAYING CLOSER TO
THE COOLER MAV MOS SOUTH/EAST BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH WHERE SOME
SUN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WHICH AFFECTED US ON SATURDAY SHOULD
SINK FAR ENOUGH SEWD TO PULL THE PCPN SHIELD OUT OF OUR AREA.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST COMBINED WITH NELY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A BRISK WIND OVER THE PIEDMONT.
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MODELS SPIT OUT SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WILL OPT TO KEEP MONDAY DRY
AND LEAVE POPS JUST BELOW THRESHOLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN WEATHER MAKER THOUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE CFROPA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD SUPPORT...AND AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LOOK TO DESTABILIZE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH LLIKELY POPS AND CONFINE CHC THUNDER TO
ERN AREAS. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE DATA TO INDICATE MORE THAN
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN CAA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WILL INDICATE THIS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS BREEZY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
QUIET WX FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVC-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING THEN LOWER TO LOW-
END VFR STARTING AROUND 02Z SAT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STILL EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN
QUESTION UNDER DRY MID LEVELS AND DEVELOPING NE FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN VARIED ON HOW FAR NORTH TO
TAKE LOWER CIGS AND RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND
PROVIDING A RANGE FROM MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT AT LWB TO DEVELOPING
IFR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. APPEARS
MVFR TO OCNL IFR MOST LIKELY FROM ROA-LYH SOUTH TO DAN WHILE A
PERIOD OF MVFR LIKELY AT BCB AND POSSIBLE AT BLF ALTHOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL INDUCED VSBY REDUCTIONS ALSO
IFFY WITH MVFR LIKELY AT DAN AND PERHAPS ROA/LYH IF THINGS
SATURATE ENOUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WHICH APPEARS POSSIBLE. ELSW
INCLUDING SOME -RA/DZ MENTION AT BCB AND BLF LATE BASED ON LATEST
NON NAM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

LIGHT/VRBL WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE RAIN MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL STAY UNDER 6KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN INCREASE AS LOW DRIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (DAN/LYH) COULD APPROACH 20KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BELT OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER THE UPPER
LOW SLOW TO EXIT. PERIODS OF -RA/DZ MAY ALSO LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE ROA/LYH/DAN COULD GET STUCK IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND SOME
LIMITED VSBY REDUCTION PENDING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL
ESPCLY THROUGH MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE
WEST VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 182341
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL PUSH SOME PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND INTO VIRGINIA UP TO ROUTE 460...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS/RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED
COASTAL LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND OFF
THE SE COAST SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS LATE. HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN IN SIMILAR CAMPS AS BEFORE
WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS HAS
A DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS SRN VA/NW NC BY MORNING...LEAVING THE
CANADIAN AND NEW EC BASICALLY IN BETWEEN WITH MOST RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTH/EAST BY EARLY SAT. LATEST CONSENSUS INCLUDING WPC
OUTPUT SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION IN ORDER TONIGHT GIVEN DRY
ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST EARLY SAT. THUS HAVE CUT BACK
ON POPS ENTERING THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH BETTER LIFT AND
COLUMN SATURATION AFTER MIDNIGHT NW NC INTO SOUTHERN VA EARLY SAT
WHERE MAINTAINED LOW LIKELYS FOR LIMITED QPF. NORTHWARD EXTENT
ALSO IFFY AS APPEARS THE BLUE RIDGE TO SERVE AS A BACKBOARD WITH
MID LEVEL DRY HOLDING ANY PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...SO
MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THESE SPOTS. OTRW MAINLY CLOUDY AND DRY ELSW
WITH UNIFORM LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHING OUT ALONG OR SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER SAT UNDER CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND SOUTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN LOOKS LIKE MOST -RA/DZ
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT LIKELY FROM LOW
CLOUDS/PRECIP SOUTH TO HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND LITTLE -RA NORTH AND
WEST. ENSEMBLES SHOW PRECIP PIVOTING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY BUT SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NE
THAN EAST WHICH SOMETIMES ACTS TO LIMIT PRECIP INTO AN ENHANCED
WEDGE. THEREFORE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH LINGERING LIKELY POPS
FAR SOUTH/SE DURING THE MORNING AND CHANCES UP TO 460...THEN
DRYING FROM NW TO SE SAT AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL EXITING
LATE. HIGH TEMPS VERY TRICKY WITH LARGE MOS SPREADS ATTM PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN WHICH COULD KEEP SOME SPOTS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IF PRECIP IS MORE WIDESPREAD. OTRW STAYING CLOSER TO
THE COOLER MAV MOS SOUTH/EAST BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH WHERE SOME
SUN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WHICH AFFECTED US ON SATURDAY SHOULD
SINK FAR ENOUGH SEWD TO PULL THE PCPN SHIELD OUT OF OUR AREA.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST COMBINED WITH NELY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A BRISK WIND OVER THE PIEDMONT.
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MODELS SPIT OUT SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WILL OPT TO KEEP MONDAY DRY
AND LEAVE POPS JUST BELOW THRESHOLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN WEATHER MAKER THOUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE CFROPA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD SUPPORT...AND AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LOOK TO DESTABILIZE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH LLIKELY POPS AND CONFINE CHC THUNDER TO
ERN AREAS. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE DATA TO INDICATE MORE THAN
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN CAA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WILL INDICATE THIS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS BREEZY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
QUIET WX FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVC-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING THEN LOWER TO LOW-
END VFR STARTING AROUND 02Z SAT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STILL EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN
QUESTION UNDER DRY MID LEVELS AND DEVELOPING NE FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN VARIED ON HOW FAR NORTH TO
TAKE LOWER CIGS AND RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND
PROVIDING A RANGE FROM MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT AT LWB TO DEVELOPING
IFR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. APPEARS
MVFR TO OCNL IFR MOST LIKELY FROM ROA-LYH SOUTH TO DAN WHILE A
PERIOD OF MVFR LIKELY AT BCB AND POSSIBLE AT BLF ALTHOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL INDUCED VSBY REDUCTIONS ALSO
IFFY WITH MVFR LIKELY AT DAN AND PERHAPS ROA/LYH IF THINGS
SATURATE ENOUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WHICH APPEARS POSSIBLE. ELSW
INCLUDING SOME -RA/DZ MENTION AT BCB AND BLF LATE BASED ON LATEST
NON NAM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

LIGHT/VRBL WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE RAIN MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL STAY UNDER 6KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN INCREASE AS LOW DRIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (DAN/LYH) COULD APPROACH 20KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BELT OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER THE UPPER
LOW SLOW TO EXIT. PERIODS OF -RA/DZ MAY ALSO LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE ROA/LYH/DAN COULD GET STUCK IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND SOME
LIMITED VSBY REDUCTION PENDING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL
ESPCLY THROUGH MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE
WEST VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/RCS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 181941
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL PUSH SOME PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND INTO VIRGINIA UP TO ROUTE 460...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS/RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED
COASTAL LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND OFF
THE SE COAST SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS LATE. HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN IN SIMILAR CAMPS AS BEFORE
WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS HAS
A DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS SRN VA/NW NC BY MORNING...LEAVING THE
CANADIAN AND NEW EC BASICALLY IN BETWEEN WITH MOST RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTH/EAST BY EARLY SAT. LATEST CONSENSUS INCLUDING WPC
OUTPUT SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION IN ORDER TONIGHT GIVEN DRY
ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST EARLY SAT. THUS HAVE CUT BACK
ON POPS ENTERING THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH BETTER LIFT AND
COLUMN SATURATION AFTER MIDNIGHT NW NC INTO SOUTHERN VA EARLY SAT
WHERE MAINTAINED LOW LIKELYS FOR LIMITED QPF. NORTHWARD EXTENT
ALSO IFFY AS APPEARS THE BLUE RIDGE TO SERVE AS A BACKBOARD WITH
MID LEVEL DRY HOLDING ANY PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...SO
MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THESE SPOTS. OTRW MAINLY CLOUDY AND DRY ELSW
WITH UNIFORM LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHING OUT ALONG OR SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER SAT UNDER CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND SOUTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN LOOKS LIKE MOST -RA/DZ
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT LIKELY FROM LOW
CLOUDS/PRECIP SOUTH TO HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND LITTLE -RA NORTH AND
WEST. ENSEMBLES SHOW PRECIP PIVOTING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY BUT SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NE
THAN EAST WHICH SOMETIMES ACTS TO LIMIT PRECIP INTO AN ENHANCED
WEDGE. THEREFORE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH LINGERING LIKELY POPS
FAR SOUTH/SE DURING THE MORNING AND CHANCES UP TO 460...THEN
DRYING FROM NW TO SE SAT AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL EXITING
LATE. HIGH TEMPS VERY TRICKY WITH LARGE MOS SPREADS ATTM PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN WHICH COULD KEEP SOME SPOTS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IF PRECIP IS MORE WIDESPREAD. OTRW STAYING CLOSER TO
THE COOLER MAV MOS SOUTH/EAST BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH WHERE SOME
SUN POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WHICH AFFECTED US ON SATURDAY SHOULD
SINK FAR ENOUGH SEWD TO PULL THE PCPN SHIELD OUT OF OUR AREA.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST COMBINED WITH NELY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A BRISK WIND OVER THE PIEDMONT.
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MODELS SPIT OUT SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WILL OPT TO KEEP MONDAY DRY
AND LEAVE POPS JUST BELOW THRESHOLD.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN WEATHER MAKER THOUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE CFROPA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD SUPPORT...AND AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LOOK TO DESTABILIZE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH LLIKELY POPS AND CONFINE CHC THUNDER TO
ERN AREAS. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE DATA TO INDICATE MORE THAN
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN CAA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WILL INDICATE THIS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS BREEZY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
QUIET WX FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HAVE BROKEN INTO OVERALL VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS ON TOP
OF SCTD LOW CLOUDS. STILL EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
DEPTH OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION UNDER DRY MID LEVELS AND
DEVELOPING NE FLOW LATER ON. MODELS REMAIN VARIED ON HOW FAR NORTH
TO TAKE LOWER CIGS AND RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ENSEMBLE
BLEND PROVIDING A RANGE FROM MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT AT LWB TO
DEVELOPING IFR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. APPEARS MVFR TO OCNL IFR MOST LIKELY FROM ROA-LYH SOUTH
TO DAN WHILE A PERIOD OF MVFR LIKELY AT BCB AND POSSIBLE AT BLF
ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL INDUCED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ALSO IFFY WITH MVFR LIKELY AT DAN AND PERHAPS ROA/LYH
IF THINGS SATURATE ENOUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WHICH APPEARS
POSSIBLE. ELSW INCLUDING SOME -RA/DZ MENTION AT BCB AND BLF LATE
BASED ON LATEST NON NAM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

LIGHT/VRBL WINDS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
NORTH/NE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING...PUSHING GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OUT EAST BY MORNING.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BELT OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER THE
UPPER LOW SLOW TO EXIT. PERIODS OF -RA/DZ MAY ALSO LINGER EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE ROA/LYH/DAN COULD GET STUCK IN MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND SOME LIMITED VSBY REDUCTION PENDING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THE RAINFALL ESPCLY THROUGH MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE WEST VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 181703
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
103 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THICK CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SHEAR NE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ALONG/EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNDER THE WEDGE. PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND WITH
THE STRONG SE UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH ATTM WITH MOST
SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM KEEPING MOST OUT OF THE CWA
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THEREFORE GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS OFF MORNING
SOUNDINGS TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE KEEPING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER GIVEN GOING ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ALONG WITH AN OVERALL EAST/NE
TRAJECTORY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPS EVEN COOLER SO LOWERED A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WITH MOST
AGAIN STUCK IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 445 AM EDT FRIDAY...

INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM THANKS TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT QPF AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PCPN PROBLEMATIC. GFS BRINGS OVER AN INCH OR
RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN VA OVERNIGHT...WHILE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP PCPN AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1/4 INCH IN
SOUTHERN VA AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/2 INCH IN NC COUNTIES. GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF HEAVIER
RAIN ACROSS SW/SC VA...BUT THIS HAS NEVER BEEN INDICATED BY THE
OTHER MODELS. WPC INDICATES GFS IS ODD SOLUTION AND AS A RESULT
HAVE CHOSEN TO DISCARD HEAVIER RAINFALL AND FURTHER NORTHWARD
EXTENT...EVEN INTO WV...INDICATED BY GFS. NONETHELESS...ALL MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WETTER...FURTHER NORTH...WITH -RA POSSIBLY BEGINNING
IN WESTERN NC EVEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER
HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS CREEPING
INTO EASTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY LITTLE TODAY AND BE QUITE UNIFORM
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...MAINLY 50S FOR HIGHS
TODAY AND 40S FOR LOW TONIGHT...WITH A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN FAR
SW VA. E-NE FLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT COOLER THAN NORMALLY COLDER WESTERN AREAS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SIMILAR AND INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ECMWF GRIDDED OVERNIGHT TEMPS
NEAR 45 ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.

WITH RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORY...HAVE CANCELLED ALL EXCEPT FOR A
FEW OF THE ORIGINAL INCLUDED COUNTIES AS CLOUDS AND EAST FLOW HAVE
PREVENTED DECOUPLING. IT NEVER EVEN GOT BELOW 40 AT DAN/LYH AS A
RESULT. OPTED TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY COUNTIES IN
THROUGH 8 AM AS MESO OBS SHOW READINGS IN THE LOW 30S THERE
YET WITH CALM WINDS...SO FROST QUITE LIKELY THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SATURDAY MORNING...ONSHORE FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BRINGING
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND LIKEWISE
WILL THE PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER ALSO WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OUT OF THE AREA...WITH THE CLOUD COVER
CONTINUING TO EXIT. FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...HAVE FAVORED NUMBERS
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THAT OF THE MAV MOS GIVEN THE NAM HAS
SOLUTION WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. LIKEWISE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVER OUR
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD CONCURRENT TO AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE A
PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WELL OUT
TO SEA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE
FORCING IN PLACE AT THAT TIME. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HAVE BROKEN INTO OVERALL VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS ON TOP
OF SCTD LOW CLOUDS. STILL EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
DEPTH OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION UNDER DRY MID LEVELS AND
DEVELOPING NE FLOW LATER ON. MODELS REMAIN VARIED ON HOW FAR NORTH
TO TAKE LOWER CIGS AND RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ENSEMBLE
BLEND PROVIDING A RANGE FROM MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT AT LWB TO
DEVELOPING IFR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. APPEARS MVFR TO OCNL IFR MOST LIKELY FROM ROA-LYH SOUTH
TO DAN WHILE A PERIOD OF MVFR LIKELY AT BCB AND POSSIBLE AT BLF
ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL INDUCED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ALSO IFFY WITH MVFR LIKELY AT DAN AND PERHAPS ROA/LYH
IF THINGS SATURATE ENOUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WHICH APPEARS
POSSIBLE. ELSW INCLUDING SOME -RA/DZ MENTION AT BCB AND BLF LATE
BASED ON LATEST NON NAM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

LIGHT/VRBL WINDS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
NORTH/NE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING...PUSHING GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OUT EAST BY MORNING.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BELT OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER THE
UPPER LOW SLOW TO EXIT. PERIODS OF -RA/DZ MAY ALSO LINGER EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE ROA/LYH/DAN COULD GET STUCK IN MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND SOME LIMITED VSBY REDUCTION PENDING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THE RAINFALL ESPCLY THROUGH MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE WEST VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/KM/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...JH/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 181445
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1045 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THICK CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SHEAR NE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ALONG/EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNDER THE WEDGE. PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND WITH
THE STRONG SE UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH ATTM WITH MOST
SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM KEEPING MOST OUT OF THE CWA
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THEREFORE GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS OFF MORNING
SOUNDINGS TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE KEEPING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER GIVEN GOING ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ALONG WITH AN OVERALL EAST/NE
TRAJECTORY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPS EVEN COOLER SO LOWERED A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WITH MOST
AGAIN STUCK IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 445 AM EDT FRIDAY...

INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM THANKS TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT QPF AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PCPN PROBLEMATIC. GFS BRINGS OVER AN INCH OR
RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN VA OVERNIGHT...WHILE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP PCPN AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1/4 INCH IN
SOUTHERN VA AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/2 INCH IN NC COUNTIES. GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF HEAVIER
RAIN ACROSS SW/SC VA...BUT THIS HAS NEVER BEEN INDICATED BY THE
OTHER MODELS. WPC INDICATES GFS IS ODD SOLUTION AND AS A RESULT
HAVE CHOSEN TO DISCARD HEAVIER RAINFALL AND FURTHER NORTHWARD
EXTENT...EVEN INTO WV...INDICATED BY GFS. NONETHELESS...ALL MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WETTER...FURTHER NORTH...WITH -RA POSSIBLY BEGINNING
IN WESTERN NC EVEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER
HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS CREEPING
INTO EASTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY LITTLE TODAY AND BE QUITE UNIFORM
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...MAINLY 50S FOR HIGHS
TODAY AND 40S FOR LOW TONIGHT...WITH A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN FAR
SW VA. E-NE FLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT COOLER THAN NORMALLY COLDER WESTERN AREAS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SIMILAR AND INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ECMWF GRIDDED OVERNIGHT TEMPS
NEAR 45 ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.

WITH RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORY...HAVE CANCELLED ALL EXCEPT FOR A
FEW OF THE ORIGINAL INCLUDED COUNTIES AS CLOUDS AND EAST FLOW HAVE
PREVENTED DECOUPLING. IT NEVER EVEN GOT BELOW 40 AT DAN/LYH AS A
RESULT. OPTED TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY COUNTIES IN
THROUGH 8 AM AS MESO OBS SHOW READINGS IN THE LOW 30S THERE
YET WITH CALM WINDS...SO FROST QUITE LIKELY THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SATURDAY MORNING...ONSHORE FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BRINGING
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND LIKEWISE
WILL THE PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER ALSO WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OUT OF THE AREA...WITH THE CLOUD COVER
CONTINUING TO EXIT. FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...HAVE FAVORED NUMBERS
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THAT OF THE MAV MOS GIVEN THE NAM HAS
SOLUTION WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. LIKEWISE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVER OUR
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD CONCURRENT TO AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE A
PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WELL OUT
TO SEA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE
FORCING IN PLACE AT THAT TIME. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST...WHICH HAS
NOW TRANSLATED EVEN INTO THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE TAF. EARLIER
GFS INDICATED THAT LOW CLOUDS ON ESE MARITIME FLOW WOULD WORK
THEIR WAY INTO LYH/ROA/DAN THIS MORNING...WHILE NAM/ECMWF
GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THIS. IT APPEARS THE GFS WAS RIGHT...AS
09Z-10Z...LOW END MVFR CIGS WORKED THEIR WAY INTO ROA/LYH/DAN. GFS
GRIDDED DATA STILL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WHILE
LATEST GFS MOS DATA DOES NOT. THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN ABOUT 100 MILES E-SE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODELS SHOW THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP MID TO LATE
MORNING...SO HAVE PLANNED ACCORDINGLY WITH VFR CIGS ALL SITES BY
16Z. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT WORK THEIR WAY INTO LWB/BLF...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH BLF WITH SE WINDS AND BCB NOW OVC013.

AT ANY RATE...EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ON TOP OF ANY
LOW CLOUDS WITH HIGH CLOUD CIGS LOWERING INTO THE 100 RANGE BY
00Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH MVFR CIGS ROA/LYH/DAN/BCB AFT 06Z...POTENTIALLY IFR
DAN. HAVE INTRODUCED -RA ROA/DAN/LYH 08Z AND BEYOND WITH -DZ BCB.
MOST MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS ESE 5-10KTS BACKING MORE TOWARD NE BY DAYS END...WITH LOW
END GUSTS ALSO DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFT 06Z.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EVENTUALLY -RA AND MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS WILL CREEP INTO THE
SE PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY. LWB AND POSSIBLY EVEN BLF SHOULD
REMAIN VFR MOST OF THIS TIME...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT BLF.
STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SE U.S. UPPER LOW AND IMPACT
ON AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MAIN IMPACT SHOULD
CLEARLY BE FOR DAN/LYH/ROA AT THIS POINT. AS THAT SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/KM/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 181145
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT FRIDAY...

INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM THANKS TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT QPF AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PCPN PROBLEMATIC. GFS BRINGS OVER AN INCH OR
RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN VA OVERNIGHT...WHILE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP PCPN AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1/4 INCH IN
SOUTHERN VA AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/2 INCH IN NC COUNTIES. GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF HEAVIER
RAIN ACROSS SW/SC VA...BUT THIS HAS NEVER BEEN INDICATED BY THE
OTHER MODELS. WPC INDICATES GFS IS ODD SOLUTION AND AS A RESULT
HAVE CHOSEN TO DISCARD HEAVIER RAINFALL AND FURTHER NORTHWARD
EXTENT...EVEN INTO WV...INDICATED BY GFS. NONETHELESS...ALL MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WETTER...FURTHER NORTH...WITH -RA POSSIBLY BEGINNING
IN WESTERN NC EVEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER
HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS CREEPING
INTO EASTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY LITTLE TODAY AND BE QUITE UNIFORM
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...MAINLY 50S FOR HIGHS
TODAY AND 40S FOR LOW TONIGHT...WITH A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN FAR
SW VA. E-NE FLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT COOLER THAN NORMALLY COLDER WESTERN AREAS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SIMILAR AND INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ECMWF GRIDDED OVERNIGHT TEMPS
NEAR 45 ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.

WITH RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORY...HAVE CANCELLED ALL EXCEPT FOR A
FEW OF THE ORIGINAL INCLUDED COUNTIES AS CLOUDS AND EAST FLOW HAVE
PREVENTED DECOUPLING. IT NEVER EVEN GOT BELOW 40 AT DAN/LYH AS A
RESULT. OPTED TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY COUNTIES IN
THROUGH 8 AM AS MESO OBS SHOW READINGS IN THE LOW 30S THERE
YET WITH CALM WINDS...SO FROST QUITE LIKELY THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SATURDAY MORNING...ONSHORE FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BRINGING
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND LIKEWISE
WILL THE PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER ALSO WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OUT OF THE AREA...WITH THE CLOUD COVER
CONTINUING TO EXIT. FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...HAVE FAVORED NUMBERS
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THAT OF THE MAV MOS GIVEN THE NAM HAS
SOLUTION WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. LIKEWISE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVER OUR
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD CONCURRENT TO AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE A
PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WELL OUT
TO SEA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE
FORCING IN PLACE AT THAT TIME. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST...WHICH HAS
NOW TRANSLATED EVEN INTO THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE TAF. EARLIER
GFS INDICATED THAT LOW CLOUDS ON ESE MARITIME FLOW WOULD WORK
THEIR WAY INTO LYH/ROA/DAN THIS MORNING...WHILE NAM/ECMWF
GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THIS. IT APPEARS THE GFS WAS RIGHT...AS
09Z-10Z...LOW END MVFR CIGS WORKED THEIR WAY INTO ROA/LYH/DAN. GFS
GRIDDED DATA STILL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WHILE
LATEST GFS MOS DATA DOES NOT. THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN ABOUT 100 MILES E-SE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODELS SHOW THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP MID TO LATE
MORNING...SO HAVE PLANNED ACCORDINGLY WITH VFR CIGS ALL SITES BY
16Z. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT WORK THEIR WAY INTO LWB/BLF...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH BLF WITH SE WINDS AND BCB NOW OVC013.

AT ANY RATE...EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ON TOP OF ANY
LOW CLOUDS WITH HIGH CLOUD CIGS LOWERING INTO THE 100 RANGE BY
00Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH MVFR CIGS ROA/LYH/DAN/BCB AFT 06Z...POTENTIALLY IFR
DAN. HAVE INTRODUCED -RA ROA/DAN/LYH 08Z AND BEYOND WITH -DZ BCB.
MOST MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS ESE 5-10KTS BACKING MORE TOWARD NE BY DAYS END...WITH LOW
END GUSTS ALSO DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFT 06Z.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EVENTUALLY -RA AND MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS WILL CREEP INTO THE
SE PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY. LWB AND POSSIBLY EVEN BLF SHOULD
REMAIN VFR MOST OF THIS TIME...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT BLF.
STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SE U.S. UPPER LOW AND IMPACT
ON AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MAIN IMPACT SHOULD
CLEARLY BE FOR DAN/LYH/ROA AT THIS POINT. AS THAT SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ023-024-035-
     047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/KM/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...KK/RAB





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