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000
FXUS61 KRNK 282355
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
BUT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN AND GIVE THE AREA A MOSTLY DRY
SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL ON TRACK AND
VERIFYING WELL...ALTHOUGH HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS TO KEEP UP WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN TIME AND SPACE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALSO BUMPED UP THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PIEDMONT FROM CAMPBELL COUNTY VA EAST...WHERE
LARGE AREA OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SET UP.

TRENDS DURING THE PAST HOUR HAVE BEEN TOWARD SLOW STRATIFICATION
OF AIRMASS AND DECREASING INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASINGLY BECOMING OVERWHELMED BY
COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL UPDATE GRIDS AGAIN SHORTLY TO
REFLECT AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG...SPECIFICALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND SKIES CLEAR.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AS FAR AS TEMPS/DEW POINTS
AND DIMINISHING THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
DIFFUSE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION AND ADD A
LITTLE SUPPORT TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
GENERATE THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WEST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT AS. WITH LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
MAY GENERATE A PULSE STORM OR TWO THAT WARRANT ATTENTION. MAINLY
EXPECTING RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS BUT QUITE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ACTIVITY
WILL QUIET DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET SO EXPECTING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
THE REGION AND PUSH THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE LOOKING MOSTLY DRY. NO AIRMASS CHANGE SO
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND A BIT HUMID WITH MINS TONIGHT
AROUND 60 WEST OF THE RIDGE TO LOW/MID 60S EAST...AND HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY UPPERS 70S/LOWER 80S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH
ANY WEAK FORCING LIFTING WELL TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP A FEW SHWRS GOING INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE REDUCING POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT
OR SOON THEREAFTER.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR WRAPS CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND THIS CAN BE SEEN READILY IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS INSTABILITY LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST RIDGES PERHAPS
GETTING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWER OR ISOLD THUNDER...MAINLY IN
WEST VIRGINIA...THINK MOST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE DRY AND ALSO
FAIRLY WARM FOR SATURDAY. LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FROM BLUE
RIDGE AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH LOW CHC CONFINED TO WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND ALONG STATE BORDER WITH VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH PIEDMONT AREAS OVERNIGHT
SAT NIGHT FOR A STRAY SHOWERS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
AGAIN...BUT FOR NOW LEAVING POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD THERE
FROM SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH BUT
THEN ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOWLY
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SQUEEZE DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO AREA.  THUS LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR
CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AM STILL NOT
CONVINCED THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD...AND THUS THINK
CHANCE POPS MAY STILL BE ADEQUATE TO DESCRIBE EXPECTED COVERAGE IN
MOST AREAS.  LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL LEAVING SOME LOW
LIKELY VALUES IN MOUNTAINS...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY MENTION IN
PIEDMONT UNTIL AFTERNOON AND KEEPING LOW CHANCE THERE.  NAM DEPICTS
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GFS A BIT MORE SW...THUS SOME QSTN
HOW FAR EAST OF BLUE RIDGE STORMS MAY DRIFT BY LATE AFT/EVE...BUT
WITH THE CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK BOUNDARY THIS COULD BE AN OVERNIGHT
WHERE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT POPS UP IN THE CHC CATEGORY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT
SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT
AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE
WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS
WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE
STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING CONTAMINATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. NO TERMINAL
FORECAST POINT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS AT KBLF AND KDAN UNTIL 02Z-
03Z/10PM-11PM UNTIL WEATHER IN THAT AREA DISSIPATES.

HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A MOIST GROUND NOW IN MANY
AREAS...EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT FOG...AND THIS
HINTED WELL IN LAMP GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE LATE NIGHT PERIOD OF IFR
TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST TO VISIBILITY...AT
KLYH...KDAN...KBCB...KLWB WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KBLF. FOR NOW...HEAT
ISLAND EFFECT AROUND KROA SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY OUT OF MVFR
RANGE...BUT BRIEF INTRUSION TO 4-5SM POSSIBLE RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE CAN NOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT.

ANY LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...PERHAPS A COUPLE-FEW HOURS LATER OUT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TERMINAL FORECAST SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR EXACT
PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE CELLS STILL TOO FAR OUT/LOW TO PLACE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A VCTS IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST TEXT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WERT
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/PM/WERT




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282355
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
BUT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN AND GIVE THE AREA A MOSTLY DRY
SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL ON TRACK AND
VERIFYING WELL...ALTHOUGH HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS TO KEEP UP WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN TIME AND SPACE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALSO BUMPED UP THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PIEDMONT FROM CAMPBELL COUNTY VA EAST...WHERE
LARGE AREA OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SET UP.

TRENDS DURING THE PAST HOUR HAVE BEEN TOWARD SLOW STRATIFICATION
OF AIRMASS AND DECREASING INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASINGLY BECOMING OVERWHELMED BY
COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL UPDATE GRIDS AGAIN SHORTLY TO
REFLECT AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG...SPECIFICALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND SKIES CLEAR.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AS FAR AS TEMPS/DEW POINTS
AND DIMINISHING THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
DIFFUSE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION AND ADD A
LITTLE SUPPORT TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
GENERATE THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WEST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT AS. WITH LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
MAY GENERATE A PULSE STORM OR TWO THAT WARRANT ATTENTION. MAINLY
EXPECTING RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS BUT QUITE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ACTIVITY
WILL QUIET DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET SO EXPECTING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
THE REGION AND PUSH THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE LOOKING MOSTLY DRY. NO AIRMASS CHANGE SO
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND A BIT HUMID WITH MINS TONIGHT
AROUND 60 WEST OF THE RIDGE TO LOW/MID 60S EAST...AND HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY UPPERS 70S/LOWER 80S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH
ANY WEAK FORCING LIFTING WELL TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP A FEW SHWRS GOING INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE REDUCING POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT
OR SOON THEREAFTER.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR WRAPS CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND THIS CAN BE SEEN READILY IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS INSTABILITY LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST RIDGES PERHAPS
GETTING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWER OR ISOLD THUNDER...MAINLY IN
WEST VIRGINIA...THINK MOST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE DRY AND ALSO
FAIRLY WARM FOR SATURDAY. LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FROM BLUE
RIDGE AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH LOW CHC CONFINED TO WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND ALONG STATE BORDER WITH VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH PIEDMONT AREAS OVERNIGHT
SAT NIGHT FOR A STRAY SHOWERS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
AGAIN...BUT FOR NOW LEAVING POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD THERE
FROM SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH BUT
THEN ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOWLY
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SQUEEZE DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO AREA.  THUS LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR
CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AM STILL NOT
CONVINCED THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD...AND THUS THINK
CHANCE POPS MAY STILL BE ADEQUATE TO DESCRIBE EXPECTED COVERAGE IN
MOST AREAS.  LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL LEAVING SOME LOW
LIKELY VALUES IN MOUNTAINS...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY MENTION IN
PIEDMONT UNTIL AFTERNOON AND KEEPING LOW CHANCE THERE.  NAM DEPICTS
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GFS A BIT MORE SW...THUS SOME QSTN
HOW FAR EAST OF BLUE RIDGE STORMS MAY DRIFT BY LATE AFT/EVE...BUT
WITH THE CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK BOUNDARY THIS COULD BE AN OVERNIGHT
WHERE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT POPS UP IN THE CHC CATEGORY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT
SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT
AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE
WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS
WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE
STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING CONTAMINATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. NO TERMINAL
FORECAST POINT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS AT KBLF AND KDAN UNTIL 02Z-
03Z/10PM-11PM UNTIL WEATHER IN THAT AREA DISSIPATES.

HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A MOIST GROUND NOW IN MANY
AREAS...EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT FOG...AND THIS
HINTED WELL IN LAMP GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE LATE NIGHT PERIOD OF IFR
TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST TO VISIBILITY...AT
KLYH...KDAN...KBCB...KLWB WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KBLF. FOR NOW...HEAT
ISLAND EFFECT AROUND KROA SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY OUT OF MVFR
RANGE...BUT BRIEF INTRUSION TO 4-5SM POSSIBLE RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE CAN NOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT.

ANY LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...PERHAPS A COUPLE-FEW HOURS LATER OUT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TERMINAL FORECAST SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR EXACT
PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE CELLS STILL TOO FAR OUT/LOW TO PLACE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A VCTS IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST TEXT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WERT
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/PM/WERT




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282355
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
BUT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN AND GIVE THE AREA A MOSTLY DRY
SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL ON TRACK AND
VERIFYING WELL...ALTHOUGH HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS TO KEEP UP WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN TIME AND SPACE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALSO BUMPED UP THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PIEDMONT FROM CAMPBELL COUNTY VA EAST...WHERE
LARGE AREA OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SET UP.

TRENDS DURING THE PAST HOUR HAVE BEEN TOWARD SLOW STRATIFICATION
OF AIRMASS AND DECREASING INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASINGLY BECOMING OVERWHELMED BY
COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL UPDATE GRIDS AGAIN SHORTLY TO
REFLECT AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG...SPECIFICALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND SKIES CLEAR.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AS FAR AS TEMPS/DEW POINTS
AND DIMINISHING THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
DIFFUSE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION AND ADD A
LITTLE SUPPORT TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
GENERATE THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WEST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT AS. WITH LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
MAY GENERATE A PULSE STORM OR TWO THAT WARRANT ATTENTION. MAINLY
EXPECTING RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS BUT QUITE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ACTIVITY
WILL QUIET DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET SO EXPECTING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
THE REGION AND PUSH THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE LOOKING MOSTLY DRY. NO AIRMASS CHANGE SO
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND A BIT HUMID WITH MINS TONIGHT
AROUND 60 WEST OF THE RIDGE TO LOW/MID 60S EAST...AND HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY UPPERS 70S/LOWER 80S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH
ANY WEAK FORCING LIFTING WELL TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP A FEW SHWRS GOING INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE REDUCING POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT
OR SOON THEREAFTER.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR WRAPS CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND THIS CAN BE SEEN READILY IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS INSTABILITY LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST RIDGES PERHAPS
GETTING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWER OR ISOLD THUNDER...MAINLY IN
WEST VIRGINIA...THINK MOST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE DRY AND ALSO
FAIRLY WARM FOR SATURDAY. LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FROM BLUE
RIDGE AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH LOW CHC CONFINED TO WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND ALONG STATE BORDER WITH VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH PIEDMONT AREAS OVERNIGHT
SAT NIGHT FOR A STRAY SHOWERS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
AGAIN...BUT FOR NOW LEAVING POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD THERE
FROM SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH BUT
THEN ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOWLY
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SQUEEZE DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO AREA.  THUS LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR
CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AM STILL NOT
CONVINCED THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD...AND THUS THINK
CHANCE POPS MAY STILL BE ADEQUATE TO DESCRIBE EXPECTED COVERAGE IN
MOST AREAS.  LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL LEAVING SOME LOW
LIKELY VALUES IN MOUNTAINS...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY MENTION IN
PIEDMONT UNTIL AFTERNOON AND KEEPING LOW CHANCE THERE.  NAM DEPICTS
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GFS A BIT MORE SW...THUS SOME QSTN
HOW FAR EAST OF BLUE RIDGE STORMS MAY DRIFT BY LATE AFT/EVE...BUT
WITH THE CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK BOUNDARY THIS COULD BE AN OVERNIGHT
WHERE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT POPS UP IN THE CHC CATEGORY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT
SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT
AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE
WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS
WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE
STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING CONTAMINATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. NO TERMINAL
FORECAST POINT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS AT KBLF AND KDAN UNTIL 02Z-
03Z/10PM-11PM UNTIL WEATHER IN THAT AREA DISSIPATES.

HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A MOIST GROUND NOW IN MANY
AREAS...EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT FOG...AND THIS
HINTED WELL IN LAMP GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE LATE NIGHT PERIOD OF IFR
TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST TO VISIBILITY...AT
KLYH...KDAN...KBCB...KLWB WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KBLF. FOR NOW...HEAT
ISLAND EFFECT AROUND KROA SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY OUT OF MVFR
RANGE...BUT BRIEF INTRUSION TO 4-5SM POSSIBLE RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE CAN NOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT.

ANY LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...PERHAPS A COUPLE-FEW HOURS LATER OUT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TERMINAL FORECAST SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR EXACT
PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE CELLS STILL TOO FAR OUT/LOW TO PLACE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A VCTS IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST TEXT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WERT
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/PM/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 282355
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
BUT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN AND GIVE THE AREA A MOSTLY DRY
SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL ON TRACK AND
VERIFYING WELL...ALTHOUGH HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS TO KEEP UP WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN TIME AND SPACE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALSO BUMPED UP THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PIEDMONT FROM CAMPBELL COUNTY VA EAST...WHERE
LARGE AREA OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SET UP.

TRENDS DURING THE PAST HOUR HAVE BEEN TOWARD SLOW STRATIFICATION
OF AIRMASS AND DECREASING INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASINGLY BECOMING OVERWHELMED BY
COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL UPDATE GRIDS AGAIN SHORTLY TO
REFLECT AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG...SPECIFICALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND SKIES CLEAR.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AS FAR AS TEMPS/DEW POINTS
AND DIMINISHING THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
DIFFUSE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION AND ADD A
LITTLE SUPPORT TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
GENERATE THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WEST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT AS. WITH LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
MAY GENERATE A PULSE STORM OR TWO THAT WARRANT ATTENTION. MAINLY
EXPECTING RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS BUT QUITE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ACTIVITY
WILL QUIET DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET SO EXPECTING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
THE REGION AND PUSH THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE LOOKING MOSTLY DRY. NO AIRMASS CHANGE SO
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND A BIT HUMID WITH MINS TONIGHT
AROUND 60 WEST OF THE RIDGE TO LOW/MID 60S EAST...AND HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY UPPERS 70S/LOWER 80S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH
ANY WEAK FORCING LIFTING WELL TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP A FEW SHWRS GOING INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE REDUCING POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT
OR SOON THEREAFTER.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR WRAPS CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND THIS CAN BE SEEN READILY IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS INSTABILITY LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST RIDGES PERHAPS
GETTING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWER OR ISOLD THUNDER...MAINLY IN
WEST VIRGINIA...THINK MOST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE DRY AND ALSO
FAIRLY WARM FOR SATURDAY. LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FROM BLUE
RIDGE AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH LOW CHC CONFINED TO WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND ALONG STATE BORDER WITH VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH PIEDMONT AREAS OVERNIGHT
SAT NIGHT FOR A STRAY SHOWERS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
AGAIN...BUT FOR NOW LEAVING POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD THERE
FROM SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH BUT
THEN ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOWLY
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SQUEEZE DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO AREA.  THUS LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR
CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AM STILL NOT
CONVINCED THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD...AND THUS THINK
CHANCE POPS MAY STILL BE ADEQUATE TO DESCRIBE EXPECTED COVERAGE IN
MOST AREAS.  LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL LEAVING SOME LOW
LIKELY VALUES IN MOUNTAINS...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY MENTION IN
PIEDMONT UNTIL AFTERNOON AND KEEPING LOW CHANCE THERE.  NAM DEPICTS
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GFS A BIT MORE SW...THUS SOME QSTN
HOW FAR EAST OF BLUE RIDGE STORMS MAY DRIFT BY LATE AFT/EVE...BUT
WITH THE CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK BOUNDARY THIS COULD BE AN OVERNIGHT
WHERE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT POPS UP IN THE CHC CATEGORY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT
SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT
AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE
WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS
WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE
STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING CONTAMINATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. NO TERMINAL
FORECAST POINT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS AT KBLF AND KDAN UNTIL 02Z-
03Z/10PM-11PM UNTIL WEATHER IN THAT AREA DISSIPATES.

HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A MOIST GROUND NOW IN MANY
AREAS...EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT FOG...AND THIS
HINTED WELL IN LAMP GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE LATE NIGHT PERIOD OF IFR
TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST TO VISIBILITY...AT
KLYH...KDAN...KBCB...KLWB WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KBLF. FOR NOW...HEAT
ISLAND EFFECT AROUND KROA SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY OUT OF MVFR
RANGE...BUT BRIEF INTRUSION TO 4-5SM POSSIBLE RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE CAN NOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT.

ANY LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...PERHAPS A COUPLE-FEW HOURS LATER OUT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TERMINAL FORECAST SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR EXACT
PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE CELLS STILL TOO FAR OUT/LOW TO PLACE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A VCTS IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST TEXT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WERT
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/PM/WERT





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281948 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
BUT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN AND GIVE THE AREA A MOSTLY DRY
SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK DYNAMICS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A DIFFUSE FRONT
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION AND ADD A LITTLE SUPPORT TO
OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO GENERATE THE BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT AS. WITH
LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY GENERATE A PULSE STORM OR TWO THAT WARRANT
ATTENTION. MAINLY EXPECTING RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS BUT
QUITE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.
ACTIVITY WILL QUIET DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET SO EXPECTING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION AND
PUSH THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL AGAIN
BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE LOOKING MOSTLY DRY. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND A BIT HUMID WITH MINS
TONIGHT AROUND 60 WEST OF THE RIDGE TO LOW/MID 60S EAST...AND HIGHS
FRIDAY GENERALLY UPPERS 70S/LOWER 80S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH
ANY WEAK FORCING LIFTING WELL TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP A FEW SHWRS GOING INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE REDUCING POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT
OR SOON THEREAFTER.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR WRAPS CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND THIS CAN BE SEEN READILY IN THE PRECIP WATER FORECASTS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS.  THUS INSTABILITY LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST RIDGES PERHAPS GETTING ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWER OR ISOLD THUNDER...MAINLY IN WEST
VIRGINIA...THINK MOST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE DRY AND ALSO FAIRLY
WARM FOR SATURDAY.  LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FROM BLUE RIDGE AND
NORTHWESTWARD...WITH LOW CHC CONFINED TO WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND
ALONG STATE BORDER WITH VIRGINIA...INCLUDING ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
MAY HAVE TO WATCH PIEDMONT AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT FOR A STRAY
SHOWERS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AGAIN...BUT FOR NOW LEAVING
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD THERE FROM SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH BUT
THEN ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOWLY
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SQUEEZE DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO AREA.  THUS LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR
CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AM STILL NOT
CONVINCED THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD...AND THUS THINK
CHANCE POPS MAY STILL BE ADEQUATE TO DESCRIBE EXPECTED COVERAGE IN
MOST AREAS.  LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL LEAVING SOME LOW
LIKELY VALUES IN MOUNTAINS...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY MENTION IN
PIEDMONT UNTIL AFTERNOON AND KEEPING LOW CHANCE THERE.  NAM DEPICTS
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GFS A BIT MORE SW...THUS SOME QSTN
HOW FAR EAST OF BLUE RIDGE STORMS MAY DRIFT BY LATE AFT/EVE...BUT
WITH THE CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK BOUNDARY THIS COULD BE AN OVERNIGHT
WHERE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT POPS UP IN THE CHC CATEGORY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT
SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT
AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE
WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS
WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE
STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CU/CB DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY PREVALENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MATCHING IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.
WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION WE CONTINUE TO LACK ANYTHING RESEMBLING SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS SO STORMS WILL LACK ORGANIZATION SAVE FOR WHAT THEY
CAN MUSTER THROUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PIN ACTIVITY TO A SINGLE LOCATION/TIME SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL
LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND AMEND AS CONDITIONS DICTATE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AFTER SUNSET. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL AS IT WILL
BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MID/UPPER CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA TO HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
AND PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND INTRODUCE SOME FOG/STRATUS
MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL LIKELY FOG IN BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS FAR TO LOW TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SPECIFIC TO TAF SITES THAT FAR OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281948 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
BUT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN AND GIVE THE AREA A MOSTLY DRY
SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK DYNAMICS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A DIFFUSE FRONT
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION AND ADD A LITTLE SUPPORT TO
OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO GENERATE THE BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT AS. WITH
LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY GENERATE A PULSE STORM OR TWO THAT WARRANT
ATTENTION. MAINLY EXPECTING RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS BUT
QUITE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.
ACTIVITY WILL QUIET DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET SO EXPECTING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION AND
PUSH THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL AGAIN
BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE LOOKING MOSTLY DRY. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND A BIT HUMID WITH MINS
TONIGHT AROUND 60 WEST OF THE RIDGE TO LOW/MID 60S EAST...AND HIGHS
FRIDAY GENERALLY UPPERS 70S/LOWER 80S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH
ANY WEAK FORCING LIFTING WELL TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP A FEW SHWRS GOING INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE REDUCING POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT
OR SOON THEREAFTER.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR WRAPS CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND THIS CAN BE SEEN READILY IN THE PRECIP WATER FORECASTS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS.  THUS INSTABILITY LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST RIDGES PERHAPS GETTING ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWER OR ISOLD THUNDER...MAINLY IN WEST
VIRGINIA...THINK MOST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE DRY AND ALSO FAIRLY
WARM FOR SATURDAY.  LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FROM BLUE RIDGE AND
NORTHWESTWARD...WITH LOW CHC CONFINED TO WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND
ALONG STATE BORDER WITH VIRGINIA...INCLUDING ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
MAY HAVE TO WATCH PIEDMONT AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT FOR A STRAY
SHOWERS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AGAIN...BUT FOR NOW LEAVING
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD THERE FROM SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH BUT
THEN ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOWLY
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SQUEEZE DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO AREA.  THUS LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR
CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AM STILL NOT
CONVINCED THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD...AND THUS THINK
CHANCE POPS MAY STILL BE ADEQUATE TO DESCRIBE EXPECTED COVERAGE IN
MOST AREAS.  LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL LEAVING SOME LOW
LIKELY VALUES IN MOUNTAINS...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY MENTION IN
PIEDMONT UNTIL AFTERNOON AND KEEPING LOW CHANCE THERE.  NAM DEPICTS
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GFS A BIT MORE SW...THUS SOME QSTN
HOW FAR EAST OF BLUE RIDGE STORMS MAY DRIFT BY LATE AFT/EVE...BUT
WITH THE CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK BOUNDARY THIS COULD BE AN OVERNIGHT
WHERE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT POPS UP IN THE CHC CATEGORY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT
SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT
AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE
WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS
WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE
STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CU/CB DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY PREVALENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MATCHING IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.
WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION WE CONTINUE TO LACK ANYTHING RESEMBLING SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS SO STORMS WILL LACK ORGANIZATION SAVE FOR WHAT THEY
CAN MUSTER THROUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PIN ACTIVITY TO A SINGLE LOCATION/TIME SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL
LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND AMEND AS CONDITIONS DICTATE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AFTER SUNSET. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL AS IT WILL
BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MID/UPPER CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA TO HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
AND PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND INTRODUCE SOME FOG/STRATUS
MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL LIKELY FOG IN BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS FAR TO LOW TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SPECIFIC TO TAF SITES THAT FAR OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281941
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
BUT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
ENTRENCHEDACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN AND GIVE THE AREA A MOSTLY DRY
SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR FORECAST FR SUNDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK DYNAMICS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A DIFFUSE FRONT
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION AND ADD A LITTLE SUPPORT TO
OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO GENERATE THE BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT AS. WITH
LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY GENERATE A PULSE STORM OR TWO THAT WARRANT
ATTENTION. MAINLY EXPECTING RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS BUT
QUITE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.
ACTIVITY WILL QUIET DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET SO EXPECTING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION AND
PUSH THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL AGAIN
BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE LOOKING MOSTLY DRY. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND A BIT HUMID WITH MINS
TONIGHT AROUND 60 WEST OF THE RIDGE TO LOW/MID 60S EAST...AND HIGHS
FRIDAY GENERALLY UPPERS 70S/LOWER 80S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH
ANY WEAK FORCING LIFTING WELL TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP A FEW SHWRS GOING INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE REDUCING POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT
OR SOON THEREAFTER.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR WRAPS CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND THIS CAN BE SEEN READILY IN THE PRECIP WATER FORECASTS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS.  THUS INSTABILITY LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST RIDGES PERHAPS GETTING ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWER OR ISOLD THUNDER...MAINLY IN WEST
VIRGINIA...THINK MOST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE DRY AND ALSO FAIRLY
WARM FOR SATURDAY.  LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FROM BLUE RIDGE AND
NORTHWESTWARD...WITH LOW CHC CONFINED TO WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND
ALONG STATE BORDER WITH VIRGINIA...INCLUDING ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
MAY HAVE TO WATCH PIEDMONT AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT FOR A STRAY
SHOWERS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AGAIN...BUT FOR NOW LEAVING
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD THERE FROM SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH BUT
THEN ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOWLY
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SQUEEZE DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO AREA.  THUS LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR
CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AM STILL NOT
CONVINCED THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD...AND THUS THINK
CHANCE POPS MAY STILL BE ADEQUATE TO DESCRIBE EXPECTED COVERAGE IN
MOST AREAS.  LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL LEAVING SOME LOW
LIKELY VALUES IN MOUNTAINS...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY MENTION IN
PIEDMONT UNTIL AFTERNOON AND KEEPING LOW CHANCE THERE.  NAM DEPICTS
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GFS A BIT MORE SW...THUS SOME QSTN
HOW FAR EAST OF BLUE RIDGE STORMS MAY DRIFT BY LATE AFT/EVE...BUT
WITH THE CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK BOUNDARY THIS COULD BE AN OVERNIGHT
WHERE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT POPS UP IN THE CHC CATEGORY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT
SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT
AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE
WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS
WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE
STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CU/CB DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY PREVALENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MATCHING IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.
WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION WE CONTINUE TO LACK ANYTHING RESEMBLING SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS SO STORMS WILL LACK ORGANIZATION SAVE FOR WHAT THEY
CAN MUSTER THROUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PIN ACTIVITY TO A SINGLE LOCATION/TIME SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL
LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND AMEND AS CONDITIONS DICTATE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AFTER SUNSET. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL AS IT WILL
BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MID/UPPER CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA TO HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
AND PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND INTRODUCE SOME FOG/STRATUS
MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL LIKELY FOG IN BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS FAR TO LOW TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SPECIFIC TO TAF SITES THAT FAR OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281941
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
BUT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
ENTRENCHEDACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN AND GIVE THE AREA A MOSTLY DRY
SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR FORECAST FR SUNDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK DYNAMICS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A DIFFUSE FRONT
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION AND ADD A LITTLE SUPPORT TO
OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO GENERATE THE BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT AS. WITH
LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY GENERATE A PULSE STORM OR TWO THAT WARRANT
ATTENTION. MAINLY EXPECTING RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS BUT
QUITE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.
ACTIVITY WILL QUIET DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET SO EXPECTING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION AND
PUSH THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL AGAIN
BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE LOOKING MOSTLY DRY. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND A BIT HUMID WITH MINS
TONIGHT AROUND 60 WEST OF THE RIDGE TO LOW/MID 60S EAST...AND HIGHS
FRIDAY GENERALLY UPPERS 70S/LOWER 80S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH
ANY WEAK FORCING LIFTING WELL TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP A FEW SHWRS GOING INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE REDUCING POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT
OR SOON THEREAFTER.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR WRAPS CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND THIS CAN BE SEEN READILY IN THE PRECIP WATER FORECASTS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS.  THUS INSTABILITY LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST RIDGES PERHAPS GETTING ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWER OR ISOLD THUNDER...MAINLY IN WEST
VIRGINIA...THINK MOST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE DRY AND ALSO FAIRLY
WARM FOR SATURDAY.  LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FROM BLUE RIDGE AND
NORTHWESTWARD...WITH LOW CHC CONFINED TO WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND
ALONG STATE BORDER WITH VIRGINIA...INCLUDING ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
MAY HAVE TO WATCH PIEDMONT AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT FOR A STRAY
SHOWERS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AGAIN...BUT FOR NOW LEAVING
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD THERE FROM SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH BUT
THEN ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOWLY
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SQUEEZE DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO AREA.  THUS LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR
CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AM STILL NOT
CONVINCED THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD...AND THUS THINK
CHANCE POPS MAY STILL BE ADEQUATE TO DESCRIBE EXPECTED COVERAGE IN
MOST AREAS.  LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL LEAVING SOME LOW
LIKELY VALUES IN MOUNTAINS...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY MENTION IN
PIEDMONT UNTIL AFTERNOON AND KEEPING LOW CHANCE THERE.  NAM DEPICTS
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GFS A BIT MORE SW...THUS SOME QSTN
HOW FAR EAST OF BLUE RIDGE STORMS MAY DRIFT BY LATE AFT/EVE...BUT
WITH THE CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK BOUNDARY THIS COULD BE AN OVERNIGHT
WHERE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT POPS UP IN THE CHC CATEGORY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT
SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT
AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE
WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS
WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE
STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CU/CB DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY PREVALENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MATCHING IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.
WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION WE CONTINUE TO LACK ANYTHING RESEMBLING SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS SO STORMS WILL LACK ORGANIZATION SAVE FOR WHAT THEY
CAN MUSTER THROUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PIN ACTIVITY TO A SINGLE LOCATION/TIME SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL
LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND AMEND AS CONDITIONS DICTATE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AFTER SUNSET. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL AS IT WILL
BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MID/UPPER CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA TO HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
AND PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND INTRODUCE SOME FOG/STRATUS
MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL LIKELY FOG IN BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS FAR TO LOW TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SPECIFIC TO TAF SITES THAT FAR OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281825
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GRID SET. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA AS ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF. APPROACHING BROAD/DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH TROFINESS OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS ADDING ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BIT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT AND THIS WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN TODAY AND EXPECT THE PROSPECT OF
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS AFD...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CU/CB DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY PREVALENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MATCHING IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.
WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION WE CONTINUE TO LACK ANYTHING RESEMBLING SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS SO STORMS WILL LACK ORGANIZATION SAVE FOR WHAT THEY
CAN MUSTER THROUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PIN ACTIVITY TO A SINGLE LOCATION/TIME SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL
LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND AMEND AS CONDITIONS DICTATE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AFTER SUNSET. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL AS IT WILL
BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MID/UPPER CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA TO HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
AND PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND INTRODUCE SOME FOG/STRATUS
MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL LIKELY FOG IN BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS FAR TO LOW TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SPECIFIC TO TAF SITES THAT FAR OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/MBS
AVIATION...MBS/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281825
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GRID SET. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA AS ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF. APPROACHING BROAD/DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH TROFINESS OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS ADDING ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BIT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT AND THIS WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN TODAY AND EXPECT THE PROSPECT OF
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS AFD...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CU/CB DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY PREVALENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MATCHING IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.
WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION WE CONTINUE TO LACK ANYTHING RESEMBLING SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS SO STORMS WILL LACK ORGANIZATION SAVE FOR WHAT THEY
CAN MUSTER THROUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PIN ACTIVITY TO A SINGLE LOCATION/TIME SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL
LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND AMEND AS CONDITIONS DICTATE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AFTER SUNSET. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL AS IT WILL
BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MID/UPPER CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA TO HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
AND PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND INTRODUCE SOME FOG/STRATUS
MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL LIKELY FOG IN BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS FAR TO LOW TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SPECIFIC TO TAF SITES THAT FAR OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/MBS
AVIATION...MBS/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281825
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GRID SET. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA AS ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF. APPROACHING BROAD/DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH TROFINESS OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS ADDING ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BIT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT AND THIS WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN TODAY AND EXPECT THE PROSPECT OF
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS AFD...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CU/CB DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY PREVALENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MATCHING IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.
WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION WE CONTINUE TO LACK ANYTHING RESEMBLING SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS SO STORMS WILL LACK ORGANIZATION SAVE FOR WHAT THEY
CAN MUSTER THROUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PIN ACTIVITY TO A SINGLE LOCATION/TIME SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL
LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND AMEND AS CONDITIONS DICTATE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AFTER SUNSET. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL AS IT WILL
BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MID/UPPER CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA TO HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
AND PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND INTRODUCE SOME FOG/STRATUS
MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL LIKELY FOG IN BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS FAR TO LOW TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SPECIFIC TO TAF SITES THAT FAR OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/MBS
AVIATION...MBS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281825
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GRID SET. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA AS ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF. APPROACHING BROAD/DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH TROFINESS OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS ADDING ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BIT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT AND THIS WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN TODAY AND EXPECT THE PROSPECT OF
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS AFD...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CU/CB DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY PREVALENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MATCHING IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.
WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION WE CONTINUE TO LACK ANYTHING RESEMBLING SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS SO STORMS WILL LACK ORGANIZATION SAVE FOR WHAT THEY
CAN MUSTER THROUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PIN ACTIVITY TO A SINGLE LOCATION/TIME SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL
LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND AMEND AS CONDITIONS DICTATE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AFTER SUNSET. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL AS IT WILL
BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MID/UPPER CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA TO HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
AND PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND INTRODUCE SOME FOG/STRATUS
MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL LIKELY FOG IN BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS FAR TO LOW TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SPECIFIC TO TAF SITES THAT FAR OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/MBS
AVIATION...MBS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281406
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1006 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GRID SET. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA AS ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF. APPROACHING BROAD/DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH TROFINESS OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS ADDING ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BIT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT AND THIS WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN TODAY AND EXPECT THE PROSPECT OF
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS AFD...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM...THEN
ANTICIPATING VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...IN
ADDITION TO SOME LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC- 20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AN LOCATION WHICH
RECEIVES WETTING SHOWERS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281406
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1006 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GRID SET. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA AS ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF. APPROACHING BROAD/DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH TROFINESS OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS ADDING ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BIT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT AND THIS WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN TODAY AND EXPECT THE PROSPECT OF
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS AFD...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM...THEN
ANTICIPATING VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...IN
ADDITION TO SOME LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC- 20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AN LOCATION WHICH
RECEIVES WETTING SHOWERS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281406
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1006 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GRID SET. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA AS ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF. APPROACHING BROAD/DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH TROFINESS OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS ADDING ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BIT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT AND THIS WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN TODAY AND EXPECT THE PROSPECT OF
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS AFD...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM...THEN
ANTICIPATING VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...IN
ADDITION TO SOME LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC- 20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AN LOCATION WHICH
RECEIVES WETTING SHOWERS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM...THEN
ANTICIPATING VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...IN
ADDITION TO SOME LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC- 20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AN LOCATION WHICH
RECEIVES WETTING SHOWERS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM...THEN
ANTICIPATING VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...IN
ADDITION TO SOME LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC- 20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AN LOCATION WHICH
RECEIVES WETTING SHOWERS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM...THEN
ANTICIPATING VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...IN
ADDITION TO SOME LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC- 20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AN LOCATION WHICH
RECEIVES WETTING SHOWERS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281003
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
603 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO SOME
LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC-20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281003
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
603 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO SOME
LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC-20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281003
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
603 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO SOME
LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC-20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281003
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
603 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
CAPE OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO SOME
LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC-20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281001
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
601 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS IS LOW...HOWEVER WITH
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST CAPE OF 2500
J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO SOME
LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC-20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281001
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
601 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS IS LOW...HOWEVER WITH
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST CAPE OF 2500
J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO SOME
LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC-20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281001
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
601 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS IS LOW...HOWEVER WITH
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST CAPE OF 2500
J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO SOME
LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC-20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281001
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
601 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE
WARM/HUMID SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR
TODAY THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS
TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK...SFC-20KFT MEAN FLOW OF 10KTS OR
LESS. THIS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PROLONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
BOTH THE HIGH RES-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR MTNS AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND SUNSET 01Z/9PM.

THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS IS LOW...HOWEVER WITH
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST CAPE OF 2500
J/KG COUPLED WITH FORECAST DCAPE OF 1000 MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY
TO A FLATTENING...MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT WILL ENTER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH COVERAGE
PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER TO TWO
TO FLOAT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOME
STRONG...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF CELLS STALL OR
TRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STILL
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 64...AND HOLD IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...GIVE THE COLD FRONT A RENEWED PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
HIGH WILL BRING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO SOME
LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC-20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280610
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
210 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 926 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST FROM RALEIGH
NORTH CAROLINA TO EMPORIA VIRGINIA WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND IN THE AREAS OF RICHER CAPE ABOVE 1K AND STRONG
THETAE/ADVECTION ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL MISS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ENDED
QUICKLY WITH THE MORE STABLE AIR. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY SURVIVES ITS MARCH EASTWARD INTO THE
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS
OF SOLAR HEATING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SWODY2 (CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DAY 2 FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL) KEEPS
OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING OR STORMS LOCKED ON TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO SOME
LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC-20KFT ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...SO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280126
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
926 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 926 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST FROM RALEIGH
NORTH CAROLINA TO EMPORIA VIRGINIA WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND IN THE AREAS OF RICHER CAPE ABOVE 1K AND STRONG
THETAE/ADVECTION ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL MISS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ENDED
QUICKLY WITH THE MORE STABLE AIR. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY SURVIVES ITS MARCH EASTWARD INTO THE
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS
OF SOLAR HEATING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SWODY2 (CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DAY 2 FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL) KEEPS
OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING OR STORMS LOCKED ON TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGUA TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH SOME CAVEATS TO CONSIDER. FIRST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS...UPSTREAM
CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS KY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION EVIDENT ACROSS AL/MIDDLE TN...MOVING
ENE. THIS SHOULD BRING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE INDICATED SO IN THE TAFS...ALL
VFR. NEXT ISSUE IS FOG. MODELS ARE VERY ROBUST IN GENERATING IFR-
LIFR FOG TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. SYNOPTICALLY...THIS DOES NOT
MAKE SENSE. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
1.35...WE HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING FURTHER DRIED OUT THE AIR MASS TODAY ALLOWING FOR
ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND A LARGE T/TD SPREAD AT MOST SITES. IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS...CANNOT SEE MUCH WORSE THAN 4-5SM BR...MAINLY AT
LWB/BCB/LYH...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.

FOR THU...LINGERING BOUNDARY AND MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING AROUND
17Z. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD EXPECT MORE THAN WE
SAW TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH/VCTS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH STILL
MVFR CIGS AT THIS POINT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE TEMPO OR
PROB30 JUST YET...AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SAY THAT ONE SITE
WILL BE MORE FAVORED THAN ANOTHER...OTHER THAN KDAN...WHICH SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST CONVECTION AT THIS POINT...BUT EVEN THERE IT IS A
POSSIBILITY. AGAIN...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE
IN TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE THIS FAR OUT.

WINDS LOOK VERY CHAOTIC THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW. SW WINDS EARLY WILL
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AND POTENTIALLY BECOME LIGHT SE EARLY
THU...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE COMPASS AND WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA...THIS SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE. A PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODEL WIND GUIDANCE IS
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION AFT 13Z.
STILL...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280126
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
926 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 926 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST FROM RALEIGH
NORTH CAROLINA TO EMPORIA VIRGINIA WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND IN THE AREAS OF RICHER CAPE ABOVE 1K AND STRONG
THETAE/ADVECTION ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL MISS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ENDED
QUICKLY WITH THE MORE STABLE AIR. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY SURVIVES ITS MARCH EASTWARD INTO THE
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS
OF SOLAR HEATING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SWODY2 (CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DAY 2 FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL) KEEPS
OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING OR STORMS LOCKED ON TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGUA TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH SOME CAVEATS TO CONSIDER. FIRST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS...UPSTREAM
CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS KY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION EVIDENT ACROSS AL/MIDDLE TN...MOVING
ENE. THIS SHOULD BRING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE INDICATED SO IN THE TAFS...ALL
VFR. NEXT ISSUE IS FOG. MODELS ARE VERY ROBUST IN GENERATING IFR-
LIFR FOG TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. SYNOPTICALLY...THIS DOES NOT
MAKE SENSE. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
1.35...WE HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING FURTHER DRIED OUT THE AIR MASS TODAY ALLOWING FOR
ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND A LARGE T/TD SPREAD AT MOST SITES. IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS...CANNOT SEE MUCH WORSE THAN 4-5SM BR...MAINLY AT
LWB/BCB/LYH...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.

FOR THU...LINGERING BOUNDARY AND MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING AROUND
17Z. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD EXPECT MORE THAN WE
SAW TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH/VCTS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH STILL
MVFR CIGS AT THIS POINT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE TEMPO OR
PROB30 JUST YET...AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SAY THAT ONE SITE
WILL BE MORE FAVORED THAN ANOTHER...OTHER THAN KDAN...WHICH SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST CONVECTION AT THIS POINT...BUT EVEN THERE IT IS A
POSSIBILITY. AGAIN...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE
IN TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE THIS FAR OUT.

WINDS LOOK VERY CHAOTIC THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW. SW WINDS EARLY WILL
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AND POTENTIALLY BECOME LIGHT SE EARLY
THU...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE COMPASS AND WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA...THIS SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE. A PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODEL WIND GUIDANCE IS
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION AFT 13Z.
STILL...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280002
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
802 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGUA TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH SOME CAVEATS TO CONSIDER. FIRST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS...UPSTREAM
CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS KY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION EVIDENT ACROSS AL/MIDDLE TN...MOVING
ENE. THIS SHOULD BRING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE INDICATED SO IN THE TAFS...ALL
VFR. NEXT ISSUE IS FOG. MODELS ARE VERY ROBUST IN GENERATING IFR-
LIFR FOG TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. SYNOPTICALLY...THIS DOES NOT
MAKE SENSE. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
1.35...WE HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING FURTHER DRIED OUT THE AIR MASS TODAY ALLOWING FOR
ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND A LARGE T/TD SPREAD AT MOST SITES. IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS...CANNOT SEE MUCH WORSE THAN 4-5SM BR...MAINLY AT
LWB/BCB/LYH...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.

FOR THU...LINGERING BOUNDARY AND MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING AROUND
17Z. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD EXPECT MORE THAN WE
SAW TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH/VCTS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH STILL
MVFR CIGS AT THIS POINT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE TEMPO OR
PROB30 JUST YET...AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SAY THAT ONE SITE
WILL BE MORE FAVORED THAN ANOTHER...OTHER THAN KDAN...WHICH SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST CONVECTION AT THIS POINT...BUT EVEN THERE IT IS A
POSSIBILITY. AGAIN...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE
IN TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE THIS FAR OUT.

WINDS LOOK VERY CHAOTIC THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW. SW WINDS EARLY WILL
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AND POTENTIALLY BECOME LIGHT SE EARLY
THU...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE COMPASS AND WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA...THIS SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE. A PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODEL WIND GUIDANCE IS
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION AFT 13Z.
STILL...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280002
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
802 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGUA TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH SOME CAVEATS TO CONSIDER. FIRST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS...UPSTREAM
CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS KY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION EVIDENT ACROSS AL/MIDDLE TN...MOVING
ENE. THIS SHOULD BRING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE INDICATED SO IN THE TAFS...ALL
VFR. NEXT ISSUE IS FOG. MODELS ARE VERY ROBUST IN GENERATING IFR-
LIFR FOG TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. SYNOPTICALLY...THIS DOES NOT
MAKE SENSE. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
1.35...WE HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING FURTHER DRIED OUT THE AIR MASS TODAY ALLOWING FOR
ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND A LARGE T/TD SPREAD AT MOST SITES. IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS...CANNOT SEE MUCH WORSE THAN 4-5SM BR...MAINLY AT
LWB/BCB/LYH...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.

FOR THU...LINGERING BOUNDARY AND MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING AROUND
17Z. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD EXPECT MORE THAN WE
SAW TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH/VCTS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH STILL
MVFR CIGS AT THIS POINT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE TEMPO OR
PROB30 JUST YET...AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SAY THAT ONE SITE
WILL BE MORE FAVORED THAN ANOTHER...OTHER THAN KDAN...WHICH SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST CONVECTION AT THIS POINT...BUT EVEN THERE IT IS A
POSSIBILITY. AGAIN...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE
IN TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE THIS FAR OUT.

WINDS LOOK VERY CHAOTIC THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW. SW WINDS EARLY WILL
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AND POTENTIALLY BECOME LIGHT SE EARLY
THU...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE COMPASS AND WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA...THIS SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE. A PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODEL WIND GUIDANCE IS
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION AFT 13Z.
STILL...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280002
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
802 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGUA TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH SOME CAVEATS TO CONSIDER. FIRST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS...UPSTREAM
CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS KY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION EVIDENT ACROSS AL/MIDDLE TN...MOVING
ENE. THIS SHOULD BRING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE INDICATED SO IN THE TAFS...ALL
VFR. NEXT ISSUE IS FOG. MODELS ARE VERY ROBUST IN GENERATING IFR-
LIFR FOG TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. SYNOPTICALLY...THIS DOES NOT
MAKE SENSE. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
1.35...WE HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING FURTHER DRIED OUT THE AIR MASS TODAY ALLOWING FOR
ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND A LARGE T/TD SPREAD AT MOST SITES. IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS...CANNOT SEE MUCH WORSE THAN 4-5SM BR...MAINLY AT
LWB/BCB/LYH...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.

FOR THU...LINGERING BOUNDARY AND MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING AROUND
17Z. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD EXPECT MORE THAN WE
SAW TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH/VCTS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH STILL
MVFR CIGS AT THIS POINT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE TEMPO OR
PROB30 JUST YET...AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SAY THAT ONE SITE
WILL BE MORE FAVORED THAN ANOTHER...OTHER THAN KDAN...WHICH SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST CONVECTION AT THIS POINT...BUT EVEN THERE IT IS A
POSSIBILITY. AGAIN...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE
IN TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE THIS FAR OUT.

WINDS LOOK VERY CHAOTIC THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW. SW WINDS EARLY WILL
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AND POTENTIALLY BECOME LIGHT SE EARLY
THU...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE COMPASS AND WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA...THIS SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE. A PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODEL WIND GUIDANCE IS
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION AFT 13Z.
STILL...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280002
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
802 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGUA TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH SOME CAVEATS TO CONSIDER. FIRST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS...UPSTREAM
CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS KY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION EVIDENT ACROSS AL/MIDDLE TN...MOVING
ENE. THIS SHOULD BRING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE INDICATED SO IN THE TAFS...ALL
VFR. NEXT ISSUE IS FOG. MODELS ARE VERY ROBUST IN GENERATING IFR-
LIFR FOG TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. SYNOPTICALLY...THIS DOES NOT
MAKE SENSE. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
1.35...WE HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING FURTHER DRIED OUT THE AIR MASS TODAY ALLOWING FOR
ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND A LARGE T/TD SPREAD AT MOST SITES. IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS...CANNOT SEE MUCH WORSE THAN 4-5SM BR...MAINLY AT
LWB/BCB/LYH...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.

FOR THU...LINGERING BOUNDARY AND MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING AROUND
17Z. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD EXPECT MORE THAN WE
SAW TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH/VCTS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH STILL
MVFR CIGS AT THIS POINT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE TEMPO OR
PROB30 JUST YET...AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SAY THAT ONE SITE
WILL BE MORE FAVORED THAN ANOTHER...OTHER THAN KDAN...WHICH SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST CONVECTION AT THIS POINT...BUT EVEN THERE IT IS A
POSSIBILITY. AGAIN...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE
IN TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE THIS FAR OUT.

WINDS LOOK VERY CHAOTIC THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW. SW WINDS EARLY WILL
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AND POTENTIALLY BECOME LIGHT SE EARLY
THU...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE COMPASS AND WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA...THIS SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE. A PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODEL WIND GUIDANCE IS
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION AFT 13Z.
STILL...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 272234
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
634 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGGE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 272234
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
634 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGGE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272000
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGGE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...PM/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 272000
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGGE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...PM/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 272000
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGGE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...PM/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272000
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGGE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.  MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.  AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN.  THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...PM/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271743
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...DISTURBANCES ALOFT
OCCASIONALLY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTERACTING
WITH THE MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE SPENT IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY...WITH ONE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AS
OF MID MORNING...AND ANOTHER OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS HAD CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MUCH OF THE WEST HAS CLEARED OFF WITH
EFFICIENT HEATING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL WITH WEAK FLOW AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE...DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SOUNDING QUITE MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVEL
AND NOT MANY LEVEL OF DRY AIR...AND MODIFIED SOUNDING ONLY SHOWING
SBCAPE OF 1200 J/KG OR SO...ANY SCATTERED STORMS TODAY WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK AND SEE VERY LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE. MEAN
FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS MOVING ALONG SO ALSO VERY LITTLE
THREAT FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRYING TRENDS OVER
LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/STORMS YESTERDAY.

WITH SOME HEATING IN MTNS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR BLUE
RIDGE...THINK THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY...THEN DRIFTING INTO FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST. LEAST COVERAGE MAY BE
BACK OVER WRN SLOPES WHERE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING LIKELY
STABLIZED ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT. HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
MINIMAL COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR WEST...AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST TO MID
CHANCE FROM BLUE RIDGE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 530 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL ANTICYCLONE AND THE MIDWEST TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM ONTARIO CANADA SOUTHWARD...ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST WERE IN THE 60S. THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BIG CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXITING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSING
NORTH OF OUR REGION. OTHER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HEATING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN BUILD-UPS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 20-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED...TRIMMED POPS INTO THE
40-60 PERCENT RANGE...EMPHASIZING SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO
NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ALOFT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAINTAINING THE FLOW OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN.

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...EXPECT TO START EACH
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG BURNING OFF...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EACH LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY LOCALLY
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE
EVENING BEFORE.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO STRONG/SEVERE
INTENSITY AT TIMES. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE
CELLS STALL OR TRAIN...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
RAINFALL REMAINS PROLONGED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN SPOTS...TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND STALL OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH
THE FOCUS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...PM/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271743
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...DISTURBANCES ALOFT
OCCASIONALLY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTERACTING
WITH THE MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE SPENT IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY...WITH ONE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AS
OF MID MORNING...AND ANOTHER OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS HAD CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MUCH OF THE WEST HAS CLEARED OFF WITH
EFFICIENT HEATING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL WITH WEAK FLOW AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE...DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SOUNDING QUITE MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVEL
AND NOT MANY LEVEL OF DRY AIR...AND MODIFIED SOUNDING ONLY SHOWING
SBCAPE OF 1200 J/KG OR SO...ANY SCATTERED STORMS TODAY WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK AND SEE VERY LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE. MEAN
FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS MOVING ALONG SO ALSO VERY LITTLE
THREAT FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRYING TRENDS OVER
LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/STORMS YESTERDAY.

WITH SOME HEATING IN MTNS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR BLUE
RIDGE...THINK THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY...THEN DRIFTING INTO FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST. LEAST COVERAGE MAY BE
BACK OVER WRN SLOPES WHERE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING LIKELY
STABLIZED ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT. HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
MINIMAL COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR WEST...AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST TO MID
CHANCE FROM BLUE RIDGE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 530 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL ANTICYCLONE AND THE MIDWEST TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM ONTARIO CANADA SOUTHWARD...ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST WERE IN THE 60S. THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BIG CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXITING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSING
NORTH OF OUR REGION. OTHER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HEATING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN BUILD-UPS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 20-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED...TRIMMED POPS INTO THE
40-60 PERCENT RANGE...EMPHASIZING SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO
NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ALOFT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAINTAINING THE FLOW OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN.

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...EXPECT TO START EACH
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG BURNING OFF...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EACH LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY LOCALLY
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE
EVENING BEFORE.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO STRONG/SEVERE
INTENSITY AT TIMES. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE
CELLS STALL OR TRAIN...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
RAINFALL REMAINS PROLONGED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN SPOTS...TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND STALL OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH
THE FOCUS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...PM/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271743
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...DISTURBANCES ALOFT
OCCASIONALLY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTERACTING
WITH THE MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE SPENT IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY...WITH ONE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AS
OF MID MORNING...AND ANOTHER OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS HAD CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MUCH OF THE WEST HAS CLEARED OFF WITH
EFFICIENT HEATING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL WITH WEAK FLOW AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE...DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SOUNDING QUITE MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVEL
AND NOT MANY LEVEL OF DRY AIR...AND MODIFIED SOUNDING ONLY SHOWING
SBCAPE OF 1200 J/KG OR SO...ANY SCATTERED STORMS TODAY WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK AND SEE VERY LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE. MEAN
FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS MOVING ALONG SO ALSO VERY LITTLE
THREAT FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRYING TRENDS OVER
LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/STORMS YESTERDAY.

WITH SOME HEATING IN MTNS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR BLUE
RIDGE...THINK THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY...THEN DRIFTING INTO FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST. LEAST COVERAGE MAY BE
BACK OVER WRN SLOPES WHERE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING LIKELY
STABLIZED ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT. HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
MINIMAL COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR WEST...AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST TO MID
CHANCE FROM BLUE RIDGE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 530 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL ANTICYCLONE AND THE MIDWEST TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM ONTARIO CANADA SOUTHWARD...ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST WERE IN THE 60S. THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BIG CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXITING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSING
NORTH OF OUR REGION. OTHER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HEATING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN BUILD-UPS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 20-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED...TRIMMED POPS INTO THE
40-60 PERCENT RANGE...EMPHASIZING SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO
NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ALOFT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAINTAINING THE FLOW OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN.

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...EXPECT TO START EACH
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG BURNING OFF...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EACH LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY LOCALLY
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE
EVENING BEFORE.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO STRONG/SEVERE
INTENSITY AT TIMES. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE
CELLS STALL OR TRAIN...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
RAINFALL REMAINS PROLONGED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN SPOTS...TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND STALL OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH
THE FOCUS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...PM/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271743
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...DISTURBANCES ALOFT
OCCASIONALLY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTERACTING
WITH THE MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE SPENT IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY...WITH ONE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AS
OF MID MORNING...AND ANOTHER OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS HAD CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MUCH OF THE WEST HAS CLEARED OFF WITH
EFFICIENT HEATING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL WITH WEAK FLOW AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE...DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SOUNDING QUITE MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVEL
AND NOT MANY LEVEL OF DRY AIR...AND MODIFIED SOUNDING ONLY SHOWING
SBCAPE OF 1200 J/KG OR SO...ANY SCATTERED STORMS TODAY WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK AND SEE VERY LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE. MEAN
FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS MOVING ALONG SO ALSO VERY LITTLE
THREAT FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRYING TRENDS OVER
LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/STORMS YESTERDAY.

WITH SOME HEATING IN MTNS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR BLUE
RIDGE...THINK THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY...THEN DRIFTING INTO FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST. LEAST COVERAGE MAY BE
BACK OVER WRN SLOPES WHERE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING LIKELY
STABLIZED ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT. HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
MINIMAL COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR WEST...AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST TO MID
CHANCE FROM BLUE RIDGE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 530 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL ANTICYCLONE AND THE MIDWEST TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM ONTARIO CANADA SOUTHWARD...ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST WERE IN THE 60S. THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BIG CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXITING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSING
NORTH OF OUR REGION. OTHER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HEATING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN BUILD-UPS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 20-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED...TRIMMED POPS INTO THE
40-60 PERCENT RANGE...EMPHASIZING SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO
NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ALOFT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAINTAINING THE FLOW OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN.

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...EXPECT TO START EACH
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG BURNING OFF...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EACH LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY LOCALLY
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE
EVENING BEFORE.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO STRONG/SEVERE
INTENSITY AT TIMES. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE
CELLS STALL OR TRAIN...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
RAINFALL REMAINS PROLONGED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN SPOTS...TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND STALL OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH
THE FOCUS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...PM/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271404
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1004 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...DISTURBANCES ALOFT
OCCASIONALLY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTERACTING
WITH THE MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE SPENT IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY...WITH ONE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AS
OF MID MORNING...AND ANOTHER OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS HAD CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MUCH OF THE WEST HAS CLEARED OFF WITH
EFFICIENT HEATING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL WITH WEAK FLOW AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE...DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SOUNDING QUITE MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVEL
AND NOT MANY LEVEL OF DRY AIR...AND MODIFIED SOUNDING ONLY SHOWING
SBCAPE OF 1200 J/KG OR SO...ANY SCATTERED STORMS TODAY WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK AND SEE VERY LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE. MEAN
FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS MOVING ALONG SO ALSO VERY LITTLE
THREAT FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRYING TRENDS OVER
LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/STORMS YESTERDAY.

WITH SOME HEATING IN MTNS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR BLUE
RIDGE...THINK THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY...THEN DRIFTING INTO FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST. LEAST COVERAGE MAY BE
BACK OVER WRN SLOPES WHERE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING LIKELY
STABLIZED ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT. HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
MINIMAL COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR WEST...AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST TO MID
CHANCE FROM BLUE RIDGE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 530 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL ANTICYCLONE AND THE MIDWEST TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM ONTARIO CANADA SOUTHWARD...ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST WERE IN THE 60S. THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BIG CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXITING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSING
NORTH OF OUR REGION. OTHER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HEATING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN BUILD-UPS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 20-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED...TRIMMED POPS INTO THE
40-60 PERCENT RANGE...EMPHASIZING SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO
NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ALOFT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAINTAINING THE FLOW OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN.

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...EXPECT TO START EACH
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG BURNING OFF...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EACH LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY LOCALLY
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE
EVENING BEFORE.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO STRONG/SEVERE
INTENSITY AT TIMES. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE
CELLS STALL OR TRAIN...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
RAINFALL REMAINS PROLONGED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN SPOTS...TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND STALL OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH
THE FOCUS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA IS WELL INTO A MOIST AIRMASS WITH MULTI-LAYER CLOUD
COVER. MOST CLOUD BASES ARE AOA 5KFT AGL...BUT THERE IS A SCT
LAYER BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT THAT MAY BECOME BKN ATTMS ESP WHEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA. WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT CAN`T RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT MAY
BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVR MTNS AND PROGRESS INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271153
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
753 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...DISTURBANCES ALOFT
OCCASIONALLY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTERACTING
WITH THE MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL ANTICYCLONE AND THE MIDWEST TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM ONTARIO CANADA SOUTHWARD...ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST WERE IN THE 60S. THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BIG CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXITING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSING
NORTH OF OUR REGION. OTHER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HEATING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN BUILD-UPS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 20-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED...TRIMMED POPS INTO THE
40-60 PERCENT RANGE...EMPHASIZING SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO
NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ALOFT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAINTAINING THE FLOW OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN.

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...EXPECT TO START EACH
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG BURNING OFF...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EACH LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY LOCALLY
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE
EVENING BEFORE.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO STRONG/SEVERE
INTENSITY AT TIMES. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE
CELLS STALL OR TRAIN...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
RAINFALL REMAINS PROLONGED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN SPOTS...TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND STALL OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH
THE FOCUS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA IS WELL INTO A MOIST AIRMASS WITH MULTI-LAYER CLOUD
COVER. MOST CLOUD BASES ARE AOA 5KFT AGL...BUT THERE IS A SCT
LAYER BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT THAT MAY BECOME BKN ATTMS ESP WHEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA. WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT CAN`T RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT MAY
BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVR MTNS AND PROGRESS INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271153
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
753 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...DISTURBANCES ALOFT
OCCASIONALLY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTERACTING
WITH THE MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL ANTICYCLONE AND THE MIDWEST TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM ONTARIO CANADA SOUTHWARD...ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST WERE IN THE 60S. THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BIG CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXITING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSING
NORTH OF OUR REGION. OTHER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HEATING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN BUILD-UPS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 20-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED...TRIMMED POPS INTO THE
40-60 PERCENT RANGE...EMPHASIZING SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO
NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ALOFT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAINTAINING THE FLOW OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN.

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...EXPECT TO START EACH
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG BURNING OFF...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EACH LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY LOCALLY
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE
EVENING BEFORE.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO STRONG/SEVERE
INTENSITY AT TIMES. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE
CELLS STALL OR TRAIN...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
RAINFALL REMAINS PROLONGED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN SPOTS...TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND STALL OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH
THE FOCUS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA IS WELL INTO A MOIST AIRMASS WITH MULTI-LAYER CLOUD
COVER. MOST CLOUD BASES ARE AOA 5KFT AGL...BUT THERE IS A SCT
LAYER BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT THAT MAY BECOME BKN ATTMS ESP WHEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA. WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT CAN`T RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT MAY
BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVR MTNS AND PROGRESS INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270938
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
538 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...DISTURBANCES ALOFT
OCCASIONALLY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTERACTING
WITH THE MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL ANTICYCLONE AND THE MIDWEST TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM ONTARIO CANADA SOUTHWARD...ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST WERE IN THE 60S. THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BIG CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXITING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSING
NORTH OF OUR REGION. OTHER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HEATING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN BUILD-UPS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 20-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED...TRIMMED POPS INTO THE
40-60 PERCENT RANGE...EMPHASIZING SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO
NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ALOFT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAINTAINING THE FLOW OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN.

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...EXPECT TO START EACH
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG BURNING OFF...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EACH LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY LOCALLY
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE
EVENING BEFORE.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO STRONG/SEVERE
INTENSITY AT TIMES. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE
CELLS STALL OR TRAIN...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
RAINFALL REMAINS PROLONGED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN SPOTS...TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND STALL OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH
THE FOCUS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WAS WELL INTO A MOIST AIR MASS WITH MULTI-LAYER
CLOUD COVER. MOST CLOUD BASES ARE AOA 5KFT AGL...BUT THERE IS A
SCT LAYER BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT THAT MAY BECOME BKN ATTMS ESP WHEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA. WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT CAN`T RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE. SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN DECREASING. ONCE SOLAR
INSOLATION BEGINS WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RENEWED ACTIVITY WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM BUFKIT AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS BRING MVFR CLOUDS INTO
KLYH AND KDAN OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL BE BUT ANY MVFR CLOUDS WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT MAY
BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVR MTNS AND PROGRESS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270938
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
538 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...DISTURBANCES ALOFT
OCCASIONALLY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTERACTING
WITH THE MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL ANTICYCLONE AND THE MIDWEST TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM ONTARIO CANADA SOUTHWARD...ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST WERE IN THE 60S. THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BIG CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXITING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSING
NORTH OF OUR REGION. OTHER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HEATING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN BUILD-UPS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 20-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY. SINCE THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED...TRIMMED POPS INTO THE
40-60 PERCENT RANGE...EMPHASIZING SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO
NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S...COMPLIMENTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ALOFT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAINTAINING THE FLOW OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN.

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...EXPECT TO START EACH
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG BURNING OFF...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EACH LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING DURING EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY LOCALLY
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE
EVENING BEFORE.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO STRONG/SEVERE
INTENSITY AT TIMES. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE
CELLS STALL OR TRAIN...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
RAINFALL REMAINS PROLONGED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN SPOTS...TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND STALL OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH
THE FOCUS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WAS WELL INTO A MOIST AIR MASS WITH MULTI-LAYER
CLOUD COVER. MOST CLOUD BASES ARE AOA 5KFT AGL...BUT THERE IS A
SCT LAYER BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT THAT MAY BECOME BKN ATTMS ESP WHEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA. WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT CAN`T RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE. SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN DECREASING. ONCE SOLAR
INSOLATION BEGINS WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RENEWED ACTIVITY WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM BUFKIT AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS BRING MVFR CLOUDS INTO
KLYH AND KDAN OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL BE BUT ANY MVFR CLOUDS WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT MAY
BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVR MTNS AND PROGRESS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270637
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO POP/WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN
CONCERT WITH LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SIMULATED RADAR
FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODEL TRENDS AS WELL REGARDING PRECIPITATION. INITIAL AREA...NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO LWX CWA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NEXT AREA TO
WATCH IS NOW DOWN IN GEORGIA PACKING QUITE A PUNCH THERE. FEEL
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...ALBEIT IN A
DIMINISHING STATE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 06Z ONWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK WESTERN HALF. USED A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODEL POPS THROUGH 12Z...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN RAIN COOLED AREAS AND A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING
BETTER IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
GRIDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME AND DID NOT NEED ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WAS WELL INTO A MOIST AIR MASS WITH MULTI-LAYER
CLOUD COVER. MOST CLOUD BASES ARE AOA 5KFT AGL...BUT THERE IS A
SCT LAYER BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT THAT MAY BECOME BKN ATTMS ESP WHEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA. WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT CAN`T RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE. SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN DECREASING. ONCE SOLAR
INSOLATION BEGINS WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RENEWED ACTIVITY WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM BUFKIT AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS BRING MVFR CLOUDS INTO
KLYH AND KDAN OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL BE BUT ANY MVFR CLOUDS WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT MAY
BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVR MTNS AND PROGRESS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270637
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO POP/WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN
CONCERT WITH LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SIMULATED RADAR
FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODEL TRENDS AS WELL REGARDING PRECIPITATION. INITIAL AREA...NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO LWX CWA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NEXT AREA TO
WATCH IS NOW DOWN IN GEORGIA PACKING QUITE A PUNCH THERE. FEEL
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...ALBEIT IN A
DIMINISHING STATE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 06Z ONWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK WESTERN HALF. USED A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODEL POPS THROUGH 12Z...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN RAIN COOLED AREAS AND A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING
BETTER IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
GRIDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME AND DID NOT NEED ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WAS WELL INTO A MOIST AIR MASS WITH MULTI-LAYER
CLOUD COVER. MOST CLOUD BASES ARE AOA 5KFT AGL...BUT THERE IS A
SCT LAYER BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT THAT MAY BECOME BKN ATTMS ESP WHEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA. WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT CAN`T RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE. SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN DECREASING. ONCE SOLAR
INSOLATION BEGINS WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RENEWED ACTIVITY WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM BUFKIT AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS BRING MVFR CLOUDS INTO
KLYH AND KDAN OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL BE BUT ANY MVFR CLOUDS WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT MAY
BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVR MTNS AND PROGRESS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270637
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO POP/WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN
CONCERT WITH LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SIMULATED RADAR
FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODEL TRENDS AS WELL REGARDING PRECIPITATION. INITIAL AREA...NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO LWX CWA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NEXT AREA TO
WATCH IS NOW DOWN IN GEORGIA PACKING QUITE A PUNCH THERE. FEEL
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...ALBEIT IN A
DIMINISHING STATE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 06Z ONWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK WESTERN HALF. USED A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODEL POPS THROUGH 12Z...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN RAIN COOLED AREAS AND A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING
BETTER IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
GRIDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME AND DID NOT NEED ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WAS WELL INTO A MOIST AIR MASS WITH MULTI-LAYER
CLOUD COVER. MOST CLOUD BASES ARE AOA 5KFT AGL...BUT THERE IS A
SCT LAYER BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT THAT MAY BECOME BKN ATTMS ESP WHEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA. WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT CAN`T RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE. SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN DECREASING. ONCE SOLAR
INSOLATION BEGINS WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RENEWED ACTIVITY WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM BUFKIT AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS BRING MVFR CLOUDS INTO
KLYH AND KDAN OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL BE BUT ANY MVFR CLOUDS WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT MAY
BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVR MTNS AND PROGRESS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 262350
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO POP/WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN
CONCERT WITH LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SIMULATED RADAR
FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODEL TRENDS AS WELL REGARDING PRECIPITATION. INITIAL AREA...NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO LWX CWA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NEXT AREA TO
WATCH IS NOW DOWN IN GEORGIA PACKING QUITE A PUNCH THERE. FEEL
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...ALBEIT IN A
DIMINISHING STATE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 06Z ONWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK WESTERN HALF. USED A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODEL POPS THROUGH 12Z...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN RAIN COOLED AREAS AND A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING
BETTER IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
GRIDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME AND DID NOT NEED ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WAS WELL INTO A MOIST AIR MASS THIS EVENING BUT
RADAR SHOWED THE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
KBLF. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BROAD SW FLOW WILL BRING THE PRECIPITATION INTO KBLF
AND KRNK FIRST AND WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL 11-12Z/7-8AM BEFORE THE RAIN REACHES
KROA.

NAM BUFKIT AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS BRING MVFR CLOUDS INTO
KLYH AND KDAN OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL BE BUT ANY MVFR CLOUDS WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS KLYH AND KDAN BEFORE THE 00Z END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 262350
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO POP/WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN
CONCERT WITH LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SIMULATED RADAR
FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODEL TRENDS AS WELL REGARDING PRECIPITATION. INITIAL AREA...NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO LWX CWA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NEXT AREA TO
WATCH IS NOW DOWN IN GEORGIA PACKING QUITE A PUNCH THERE. FEEL
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...ALBEIT IN A
DIMINISHING STATE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 06Z ONWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK WESTERN HALF. USED A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODEL POPS THROUGH 12Z...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN RAIN COOLED AREAS AND A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING
BETTER IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
GRIDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME AND DID NOT NEED ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WAS WELL INTO A MOIST AIR MASS THIS EVENING BUT
RADAR SHOWED THE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
KBLF. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BROAD SW FLOW WILL BRING THE PRECIPITATION INTO KBLF
AND KRNK FIRST AND WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL 11-12Z/7-8AM BEFORE THE RAIN REACHES
KROA.

NAM BUFKIT AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS BRING MVFR CLOUDS INTO
KLYH AND KDAN OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL BE BUT ANY MVFR CLOUDS WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS KLYH AND KDAN BEFORE THE 00Z END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 262220
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
620 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO POP/WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN
CONCERT WITH LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SIMULATED RADAR
FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODEL TRENDS AS WELL REGARDING PRECIPITATION. INITIAL AREA...NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO LWX CWA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NEXT AREA TO
WATCH IS NOW DOWN IN GEORGIA PACKING QUITE A PUNCH THERE. FEEL
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...ALBEIT IN A
DIMINISHING STATE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 06Z ONWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK WESTERN HALF. USED A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODEL POPS THROUGH 12Z...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN RAIN COOLED AREAS AND A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING
BETTER IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
GRIDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME AND DID NOT NEED ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 262220
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
620 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO POP/WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN
CONCERT WITH LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SIMULATED RADAR
FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODEL TRENDS AS WELL REGARDING PRECIPITATION. INITIAL AREA...NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO LWX CWA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NEXT AREA TO
WATCH IS NOW DOWN IN GEORGIA PACKING QUITE A PUNCH THERE. FEEL
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...ALBEIT IN A
DIMINISHING STATE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 06Z ONWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK WESTERN HALF. USED A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODEL POPS THROUGH 12Z...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN RAIN COOLED AREAS AND A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING
BETTER IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
GRIDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME AND DID NOT NEED ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 262220
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
620 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO POP/WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN
CONCERT WITH LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SIMULATED RADAR
FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODEL TRENDS AS WELL REGARDING PRECIPITATION. INITIAL AREA...NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO LWX CWA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NEXT AREA TO
WATCH IS NOW DOWN IN GEORGIA PACKING QUITE A PUNCH THERE. FEEL
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...ALBEIT IN A
DIMINISHING STATE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 06Z ONWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK WESTERN HALF. USED A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODEL POPS THROUGH 12Z...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN RAIN COOLED AREAS AND A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING
BETTER IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
GRIDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME AND DID NOT NEED ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261913
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
313 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261913
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
313 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261913
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
313 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261913
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
313 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261701
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
101 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
EVIDENCED VIA NEARLY AN INCH JUMP IN PWATS OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS
SINCE YESTERDAY ALONG WITH A MUCH DEEPER SOUTH/SW FLOW. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER ALSO QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
WILL BE SLOW TO GET GOOD HEATING UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON GIVEN
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TO SOME
SCATTERING OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PER FORECAST 1K J/KG
CAPES BUT MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST AS LESS MOISTURE IN THE EAST PER
LEFTOVER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR NOW. THIS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
HRRR BUT APPEARS IT MAY BE OVERDONE WITH EASTWARD EXPANSE SO
FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE LATEST NAM WHICH HAS THE BEST COVERAGE
WESTERN THIRD...AND ONLY ISOLATED OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN RATHER WIND WINDS ALOFT AND LACK OF
SHEAR/LAPSES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE THREAT OUTSIDE OF PULSE
NATURE STRONGER CELLS...WHILE APPEARS ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO LIMIT
ANY FLOODING THREAT UNLESS SOME TRAINING OCCURS. OTRW CUT BACK ON
WESTERN POPS TO INIT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST LATE. TEMPS MAY BE
DAMPENED A BIT VIA EARLY CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION WESTERN
MOUNTAINS...SO TRIMMED BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THERE...BUT KEPT
80-85 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE MORE SUN LIKELY.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS WILL TREND UPWARD AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PASSED OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROVIDING THE NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS IS NOW POSITIONED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOSS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
NOW OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS PER INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTFLOW FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS PER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND OFFSET ANY
PERCEIVED COOLING...THE HIGHER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HIGHER
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH THE AIR HAVING MORE OF A MUGGY FEEL.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 60...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER SUCH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS/STRONGEST INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND...WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY DAYTIME HEATING OF THE SOUPY AIR.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE EACH MORNING...PEAK DURING EARLY
EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK
RAINFALL WILL GO AWAY COMPLETELY EACH NIGHT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT ONLY
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NO ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIMIT HEATING...HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD MOSTLY
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION THAT WOULD HOLD
THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. HPC
GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE
EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PC
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261701
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
101 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
EVIDENCED VIA NEARLY AN INCH JUMP IN PWATS OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS
SINCE YESTERDAY ALONG WITH A MUCH DEEPER SOUTH/SW FLOW. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER ALSO QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
WILL BE SLOW TO GET GOOD HEATING UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON GIVEN
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TO SOME
SCATTERING OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PER FORECAST 1K J/KG
CAPES BUT MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST AS LESS MOISTURE IN THE EAST PER
LEFTOVER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR NOW. THIS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
HRRR BUT APPEARS IT MAY BE OVERDONE WITH EASTWARD EXPANSE SO
FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE LATEST NAM WHICH HAS THE BEST COVERAGE
WESTERN THIRD...AND ONLY ISOLATED OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN RATHER WIND WINDS ALOFT AND LACK OF
SHEAR/LAPSES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE THREAT OUTSIDE OF PULSE
NATURE STRONGER CELLS...WHILE APPEARS ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO LIMIT
ANY FLOODING THREAT UNLESS SOME TRAINING OCCURS. OTRW CUT BACK ON
WESTERN POPS TO INIT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST LATE. TEMPS MAY BE
DAMPENED A BIT VIA EARLY CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION WESTERN
MOUNTAINS...SO TRIMMED BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THERE...BUT KEPT
80-85 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE MORE SUN LIKELY.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS WILL TREND UPWARD AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PASSED OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROVIDING THE NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS IS NOW POSITIONED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOSS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
NOW OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS PER INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTFLOW FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS PER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND OFFSET ANY
PERCEIVED COOLING...THE HIGHER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HIGHER
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH THE AIR HAVING MORE OF A MUGGY FEEL.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 60...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER SUCH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS/STRONGEST INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND...WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY DAYTIME HEATING OF THE SOUPY AIR.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE EACH MORNING...PEAK DURING EARLY
EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK
RAINFALL WILL GO AWAY COMPLETELY EACH NIGHT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT ONLY
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NO ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIMIT HEATING...HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD MOSTLY
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION THAT WOULD HOLD
THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. HPC
GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE
EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PC
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261701
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
101 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
EVIDENCED VIA NEARLY AN INCH JUMP IN PWATS OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS
SINCE YESTERDAY ALONG WITH A MUCH DEEPER SOUTH/SW FLOW. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER ALSO QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
WILL BE SLOW TO GET GOOD HEATING UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON GIVEN
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TO SOME
SCATTERING OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PER FORECAST 1K J/KG
CAPES BUT MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST AS LESS MOISTURE IN THE EAST PER
LEFTOVER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR NOW. THIS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
HRRR BUT APPEARS IT MAY BE OVERDONE WITH EASTWARD EXPANSE SO
FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE LATEST NAM WHICH HAS THE BEST COVERAGE
WESTERN THIRD...AND ONLY ISOLATED OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN RATHER WIND WINDS ALOFT AND LACK OF
SHEAR/LAPSES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE THREAT OUTSIDE OF PULSE
NATURE STRONGER CELLS...WHILE APPEARS ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO LIMIT
ANY FLOODING THREAT UNLESS SOME TRAINING OCCURS. OTRW CUT BACK ON
WESTERN POPS TO INIT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST LATE. TEMPS MAY BE
DAMPENED A BIT VIA EARLY CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION WESTERN
MOUNTAINS...SO TRIMMED BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THERE...BUT KEPT
80-85 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE MORE SUN LIKELY.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS WILL TREND UPWARD AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PASSED OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROVIDING THE NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS IS NOW POSITIONED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOSS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
NOW OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS PER INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTFLOW FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS PER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND OFFSET ANY
PERCEIVED COOLING...THE HIGHER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HIGHER
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH THE AIR HAVING MORE OF A MUGGY FEEL.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 60...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER SUCH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS/STRONGEST INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND...WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY DAYTIME HEATING OF THE SOUPY AIR.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE EACH MORNING...PEAK DURING EARLY
EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK
RAINFALL WILL GO AWAY COMPLETELY EACH NIGHT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT ONLY
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NO ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIMIT HEATING...HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD MOSTLY
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION THAT WOULD HOLD
THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. HPC
GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE
EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PC
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261701
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
101 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
EVIDENCED VIA NEARLY AN INCH JUMP IN PWATS OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS
SINCE YESTERDAY ALONG WITH A MUCH DEEPER SOUTH/SW FLOW. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER ALSO QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
WILL BE SLOW TO GET GOOD HEATING UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON GIVEN
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TO SOME
SCATTERING OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PER FORECAST 1K J/KG
CAPES BUT MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST AS LESS MOISTURE IN THE EAST PER
LEFTOVER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR NOW. THIS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
HRRR BUT APPEARS IT MAY BE OVERDONE WITH EASTWARD EXPANSE SO
FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE LATEST NAM WHICH HAS THE BEST COVERAGE
WESTERN THIRD...AND ONLY ISOLATED OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN RATHER WIND WINDS ALOFT AND LACK OF
SHEAR/LAPSES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE THREAT OUTSIDE OF PULSE
NATURE STRONGER CELLS...WHILE APPEARS ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO LIMIT
ANY FLOODING THREAT UNLESS SOME TRAINING OCCURS. OTRW CUT BACK ON
WESTERN POPS TO INIT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST LATE. TEMPS MAY BE
DAMPENED A BIT VIA EARLY CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION WESTERN
MOUNTAINS...SO TRIMMED BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THERE...BUT KEPT
80-85 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE MORE SUN LIKELY.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS WILL TREND UPWARD AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PASSED OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROVIDING THE NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS IS NOW POSITIONED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOSS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
NOW OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS PER INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTFLOW FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS PER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND OFFSET ANY
PERCEIVED COOLING...THE HIGHER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HIGHER
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH THE AIR HAVING MORE OF A MUGGY FEEL.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 60...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER SUCH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS/STRONGEST INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND...WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY DAYTIME HEATING OF THE SOUPY AIR.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE EACH MORNING...PEAK DURING EARLY
EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK
RAINFALL WILL GO AWAY COMPLETELY EACH NIGHT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT ONLY
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NO ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIMIT HEATING...HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD MOSTLY
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION THAT WOULD HOLD
THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. HPC
GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE
EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PC
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261409
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1009 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
EVIDENCED VIA NEARLY AN INCH JUMP IN PWATS OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS
SINCE YESTERDAY ALONG WITH A MUCH DEEPER SOUTH/SW FLOW. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER ALSO QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
WILL BE SLOW TO GET GOOD HEATING UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON GIVEN
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TO SOME
SCATTERING OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PER FORECAST 1K J/KG
CAPES BUT MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST AS LESS MOISTURE IN THE EAST PER
LEFTOVER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR NOW. THIS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
HRRR BUT APPEARS IT MAY BE OVERDONE WITH EASTWARD EXPANSE SO
FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE LATEST NAM WHICH HAS THE BEST COVERAGE
WESTERN THIRD...AND ONLY ISOLATED OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN RATHER WIND WINDS ALOFT AND LACK OF
SHEAR/LAPSES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE THREAT OUTSIDE OF PULSE
NATURE STRONGER CELLS...WHILE APPEARS ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO LIMIT
ANY FLOODING THREAT UNLESS SOME TRAINING OCCURS. OTRW CUT BACK ON
WESTERN POPS TO INIT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST LATE. TEMPS MAY BE
DAMPENED A BIT VIA EARLY CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION WESTERN
MOUNTAINS...SO TRIMMED BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THERE...BUT KEPT
80-85 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE MORE SUN LIKELY.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS WILL TREND UPWARD AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PASSED OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROVIDING THE NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS IS NOW POSITIONED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOSS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
NOW OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS PER INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTFLOW FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS PER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND OFFSET ANY
PERCEIVED COOLING...THE HIGHER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HIGHER
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH THE AIR HAVING MORE OF A MUGGY FEEL.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 60...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER SUCH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS/STRONGEST INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND...WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY DAYTIME HEATING OF THE SOUPY AIR.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE EACH MORNING...PEAK DURING EARLY
EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK
RAINFALL WILL GO AWAY COMPLETELY EACH NIGHT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT ONLY
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NO ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIMIT HEATING...HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD MOSTLY
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION THAT WOULD HOLD
THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. HPC
GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE
EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND IS NOW IN
A POSITION TO ALLOW WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO LOW END VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
CANNOT TOTALLY IGNORE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEN
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS
14-18KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE...NOW ACROSS OK/TX AND
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING IN THAT
REGION...WILL REACH OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY...EVIDENT IN SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...SHOULD ENHANCE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON.
THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING OUT...SO
ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PC
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261409
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1009 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
EVIDENCED VIA NEARLY AN INCH JUMP IN PWATS OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS
SINCE YESTERDAY ALONG WITH A MUCH DEEPER SOUTH/SW FLOW. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER ALSO QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
WILL BE SLOW TO GET GOOD HEATING UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON GIVEN
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TO SOME
SCATTERING OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PER FORECAST 1K J/KG
CAPES BUT MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST AS LESS MOISTURE IN THE EAST PER
LEFTOVER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR NOW. THIS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
HRRR BUT APPEARS IT MAY BE OVERDONE WITH EASTWARD EXPANSE SO
FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE LATEST NAM WHICH HAS THE BEST COVERAGE
WESTERN THIRD...AND ONLY ISOLATED OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN RATHER WIND WINDS ALOFT AND LACK OF
SHEAR/LAPSES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE THREAT OUTSIDE OF PULSE
NATURE STRONGER CELLS...WHILE APPEARS ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO LIMIT
ANY FLOODING THREAT UNLESS SOME TRAINING OCCURS. OTRW CUT BACK ON
WESTERN POPS TO INIT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST LATE. TEMPS MAY BE
DAMPENED A BIT VIA EARLY CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION WESTERN
MOUNTAINS...SO TRIMMED BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THERE...BUT KEPT
80-85 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE MORE SUN LIKELY.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS WILL TREND UPWARD AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PASSED OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROVIDING THE NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS IS NOW POSITIONED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOSS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
NOW OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS PER INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTFLOW FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS PER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND OFFSET ANY
PERCEIVED COOLING...THE HIGHER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HIGHER
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH THE AIR HAVING MORE OF A MUGGY FEEL.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 60...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER SUCH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS/STRONGEST INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND...WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY DAYTIME HEATING OF THE SOUPY AIR.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE EACH MORNING...PEAK DURING EARLY
EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK
RAINFALL WILL GO AWAY COMPLETELY EACH NIGHT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT ONLY
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NO ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIMIT HEATING...HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD MOSTLY
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION THAT WOULD HOLD
THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. HPC
GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE
EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND IS NOW IN
A POSITION TO ALLOW WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO LOW END VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
CANNOT TOTALLY IGNORE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEN
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS
14-18KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE...NOW ACROSS OK/TX AND
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING IN THAT
REGION...WILL REACH OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY...EVIDENT IN SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...SHOULD ENHANCE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON.
THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING OUT...SO
ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PC
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261153
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
753 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WAS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
RESULTING IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS WILL TREND UPWARD AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PASSED OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROVIDING THE NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS IS NOW POSITIONED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOSS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
NOW OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS PER INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTFLOW FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS PER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND OFFSET ANY
PERCEIVED COOLING...THE HIGHER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HIGHER
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH THE AIR HAVING MORE OF A MUGGY FEEL.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 60...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER SUCH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS/STRONGEST INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND...WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY DAYTIME HEATING OF THE SOUPY AIR.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE EACH MORNING...PEAK DURING EARLY
EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK
RAINFALL WILL GO AWAY COMPLETELY EACH NIGHT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT ONLY
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NO ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIMIT HEATING...HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD MOSTLY
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION THAT WOULD HOLD
THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. HPC
GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE
EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND IS NOW IN
A POSITION TO ALLOW WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO LOW END VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
CANNOT TOTALLY IGNORE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEN
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS
14-18KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE...NOW ACROSS OK/TX AND
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING IN THAT
REGION...WILL REACH OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY...EVIDENT IN SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...SHOULD ENHANCE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON.
THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING OUT...SO
ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PC
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 261153
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
753 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WAS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
RESULTING IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS WILL TREND UPWARD AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PASSED OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROVIDING THE NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS IS NOW POSITIONED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOSS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
NOW OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS PER INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTFLOW FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS PER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND OFFSET ANY
PERCEIVED COOLING...THE HIGHER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HIGHER
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH THE AIR HAVING MORE OF A MUGGY FEEL.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 60...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER SUCH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS/STRONGEST INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND...WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY DAYTIME HEATING OF THE SOUPY AIR.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE EACH MORNING...PEAK DURING EARLY
EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK
RAINFALL WILL GO AWAY COMPLETELY EACH NIGHT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT ONLY
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NO ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIMIT HEATING...HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD MOSTLY
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION THAT WOULD HOLD
THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. HPC
GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE
EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND IS NOW IN
A POSITION TO ALLOW WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO LOW END VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
CANNOT TOTALLY IGNORE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEN
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS
14-18KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE...NOW ACROSS OK/TX AND
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING IN THAT
REGION...WILL REACH OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY...EVIDENT IN SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...SHOULD ENHANCE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON.
THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING OUT...SO
ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PC
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260923
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
523 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WAS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
RESULTING IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS WILL TREND UPWARD AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PASSED OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROVIDING THE NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS IS NOW POSITIONED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOSS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
NOW OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS PER INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTFLOW FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS PER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND OFFSET ANY
PERCEIVED COOLING...THE HIGHER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HIGHER
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH THE AIR HAVING MORE OF A MUGGY FEEL.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 60...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER SUCH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS/STRONGEST INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND...WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY DAYTIME HEATING OF THE SOUPY AIR.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE EACH MORNING...PEAK DURING EARLY
EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK
RAINFALL WILL GO AWAY COMPLETELY EACH NIGHT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT ONLY
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NO ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIMIT HEATING...HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD MOSTLY
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION THAT WOULD HOLD
THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. HPC
GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE
EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND IS NOW IN
A POSITION TO ALLOW WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO LOW END VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
CANNOT TOTALLY IGNORE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEN
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS
14-18KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE...NOW ACROSS OK/TX AND
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING IN THAT
REGION...WILL REACH OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY...EVIDENT IN SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...SHOULD ENHANCE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON.
THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING OUT...SO
ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PC
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 260923
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
523 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WAS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
RESULTING IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS WILL TREND UPWARD AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PASSED OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROVIDING THE NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS IS NOW POSITIONED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOSS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
NOW OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS PER INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTFLOW FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS PER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND OFFSET ANY
PERCEIVED COOLING...THE HIGHER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HIGHER
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH THE AIR HAVING MORE OF A MUGGY FEEL.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 60...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER SUCH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS/STRONGEST INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND...WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY DAYTIME HEATING OF THE SOUPY AIR.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE EACH MORNING...PEAK DURING EARLY
EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK
RAINFALL WILL GO AWAY COMPLETELY EACH NIGHT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT ONLY
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NO ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIMIT HEATING...HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...WITH LOWS HOLDING IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD MOSTLY
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION THAT WOULD HOLD
THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. HPC
GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE
EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND IS NOW IN
A POSITION TO ALLOW WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO LOW END VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
CANNOT TOTALLY IGNORE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEN
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS
14-18KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE...NOW ACROSS OK/TX AND
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING IN THAT
REGION...WILL REACH OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY...EVIDENT IN SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...SHOULD ENHANCE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON.
THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING OUT...SO
ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PC
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260537
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
137 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS POSITION OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESSION TOWARD OUR REGION
FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SCENARIO WILL PROVIDE FOR
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE ALREADY LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 11PM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND THROUGH 2AM FOR THE REST OF THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
ALSO RAISED DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TREND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...AND ANTI-CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PARKED
TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING DEW POINT VALUES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY. THAT MOISTURE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER UNDER THE BASE OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION...SO
THAT JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL BECOME CLOUDY FIRST.
THIS WILL ALSO BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION
WILL START LATER AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE HIGHER DEW
POINT LEVELS. LOOK FOR THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A
DAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THAN THAT OF TODAY. FIRST...THE EARLY MORNING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MIX OUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...IT
WILL ONLY THEN REDEVELOP AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AT THE LIFTING
CONDENSATION LEVEL BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP
BY THE LATE MORNING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A BETTER
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND GREATER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO LEVELS OF
TODAY. AREAS IN THE WEST MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

AXIS OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 591 DM UPPER H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
RIDGE WILL RESIST DISPLACEMENT EASTWARD AS SHORT-WAVES CONTINUE TO
EMERGE FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BUT EVENTUALLY THE
RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED FAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY TO RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THUS WILL BE
INCREASING POPS WITH A DISTINCT DIURNAL EMPHASIS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS THE DEEP SW FLOW CONTINUES. PWATS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD INCREASING THE EFFICIENCY OF RAINFALL IN WHAT
LOOK TO BE MOSTLY PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC OUTLOOK FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOWS ONLY GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE
SHEAR AND STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE WEST. THURSDAY-FRIDAY
APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE REMAIN
INFLUENTIAL IN DIRECTING MOISTURE AROUND THEIR WESTERN PERIPHERY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION BUT BEST SUPPORT FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS PERSISTS CLOSER THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PLAINS. AGAIN PULSE-TYPE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
LIKELY OR AT LEAST AT HIGH CHANCE WITH DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL
TREND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED IN THIS CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT BUT NOTHING AT THIS POINTS
SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MAINLY
ADVISORY LEVEL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN SLOW-MOVING OR STATIONARY
STORMS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY INCURSIONS OF
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR OR OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT DAYS
SHOULD NOT BE EXTREMELY HOT. NIGHTTIME HIGHS WILLS RUN ABOUT +10
DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY CLIMO WHILE DAILY HIGHS CLOSER TO +5 ABOVE
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON
LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD MOSTLY MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION
THAT WOULD HOLD THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER
NORTH. HPC GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY
FOLLOWED FOR THE EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND IS NOW IN
A POSITION TO ALLOW WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO LOW END VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
CANNOT TOTALLY IGNORE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEN
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS
14-18KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE...NOW ACROSS OK/TX AND
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING IN THAT
REGION...WILL REACH OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY...EVIDENT IN SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...SHOULD ENHANCE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON.
THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING OUT...SO
ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260537
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
137 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS POSITION OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESSION TOWARD OUR REGION
FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SCENARIO WILL PROVIDE FOR
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE ALREADY LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 11PM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND THROUGH 2AM FOR THE REST OF THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
ALSO RAISED DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TREND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...AND ANTI-CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PARKED
TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING DEW POINT VALUES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY. THAT MOISTURE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER UNDER THE BASE OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION...SO
THAT JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL BECOME CLOUDY FIRST.
THIS WILL ALSO BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION
WILL START LATER AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE HIGHER DEW
POINT LEVELS. LOOK FOR THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A
DAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THAN THAT OF TODAY. FIRST...THE EARLY MORNING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MIX OUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...IT
WILL ONLY THEN REDEVELOP AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AT THE LIFTING
CONDENSATION LEVEL BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP
BY THE LATE MORNING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A BETTER
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND GREATER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO LEVELS OF
TODAY. AREAS IN THE WEST MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

AXIS OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 591 DM UPPER H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
RIDGE WILL RESIST DISPLACEMENT EASTWARD AS SHORT-WAVES CONTINUE TO
EMERGE FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BUT EVENTUALLY THE
RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED FAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY TO RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THUS WILL BE
INCREASING POPS WITH A DISTINCT DIURNAL EMPHASIS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS THE DEEP SW FLOW CONTINUES. PWATS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD INCREASING THE EFFICIENCY OF RAINFALL IN WHAT
LOOK TO BE MOSTLY PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC OUTLOOK FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOWS ONLY GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE
SHEAR AND STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE WEST. THURSDAY-FRIDAY
APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE REMAIN
INFLUENTIAL IN DIRECTING MOISTURE AROUND THEIR WESTERN PERIPHERY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION BUT BEST SUPPORT FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS PERSISTS CLOSER THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PLAINS. AGAIN PULSE-TYPE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
LIKELY OR AT LEAST AT HIGH CHANCE WITH DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL
TREND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED IN THIS CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT BUT NOTHING AT THIS POINTS
SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MAINLY
ADVISORY LEVEL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN SLOW-MOVING OR STATIONARY
STORMS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY INCURSIONS OF
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR OR OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT DAYS
SHOULD NOT BE EXTREMELY HOT. NIGHTTIME HIGHS WILLS RUN ABOUT +10
DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY CLIMO WHILE DAILY HIGHS CLOSER TO +5 ABOVE
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN EXTENDED PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE TOO
MUCH. THE RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DIRECT A STEADY
SUPPLY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
FEATURE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OH-PA-NJ AXIS ON
LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA BY LATER MONDAY. GFS PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD MOSTLY MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A POSITION
THAT WOULD HOLD THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FURTHER
NORTH. HPC GUIDANCE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION AND WAS BASICALLY
FOLLOWED FOR THE EXTENDED. THIS ALL MEANS CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND IS NOW IN
A POSITION TO ALLOW WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO LOW END VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
CANNOT TOTALLY IGNORE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEN
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS
14-18KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE...NOW ACROSS OK/TX AND
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING IN THAT
REGION...WILL REACH OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY...EVIDENT IN SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...SHOULD ENHANCE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON.
THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING OUT...SO
ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...PM





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