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000
FXUS61 KRNK 010738
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
338 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...

UNUSUAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MID SUMMER LOOKS IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN S
CAROLINA TRACKS NE CROSSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE OVERRUNNING OF
WARM/MOIST AIR ON SE FLOW OVERTOP A DEVELOPING COOL WEDGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME DEGREE OF PRECIP SPREADING NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY 12Z. STILL APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND ENHANCED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE BY UPSLOPE FLOW OF NEAR 2 INCH PWATS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL INIT WAS TOO FAR WEST WITH THE CORE OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL BUT EXPECT THE CURRENT AXIS TO PIVOT MORE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR AS THE WAVE HELPS SHARPEN THE
TROF WHILE BACKING THE FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT WILL GET ENOUGH HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER A PROLONGED
PERIOD TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS PER LATEST FFG
SHOWING 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3.5-4.5 INCHES TO CAUSE FLOODING. SINCE
EXPECTING MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WONT POST A WATCH OVER THE SW FOR NOW
BUT EXPECT UPSLOPE MAY CAUSE A GOOD 2-3+ INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES.

BEST LIFT SPREADS NE WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING THE SOLID
AXIS OF PRECIP TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN/NE SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME TAPERING TO LIGHTER SHRA WEST/SW. COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW BREAKS DEVELOP FAR WEST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE COOL AIR
OTRW CLOUDY AND VERY COOL TO START AUGUST. HIGHS QUITE TRICKY AS
SOME SPOTS MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTER CAD EVENT WITH TEMPS ONLY
RISING A FEW DEGREES AT MOST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE KEEPING IT
IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART. THINK SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT
INCLUDING SW VA INTO SE WVA MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP VALUES INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S ESPCLY IF THE RAINFALL DIMINISHES A BIT FASTER AND
THINGS BRIGHTEN SLIGHTLY.

IMPULSE EXITS THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION WITHIN THE RESIDUAL
WEDGE BUT UNDERNEATH A CONTINUED DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE
FRONT OF THE 5H TROF. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING OVERNIGHT FOR
MUCH ADDED RAINFALL ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LIKELY ENOUGH WEAK
UPSLOPE TO KEEP LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS GOING BLUE RIDGE INTO LATE
THIS EVENING. FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE MAY ACTUALLY TURN
WESTERLY ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF SHRA WESTERN HALF LATE SO CUT POPS
BACK TO MAINLY CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE/FOG
OUT EAST. CONTINUED COOL WITH LOWS LIKELY ONLY FALLING A FEW
DEGREES BUT AFTER A CHILLY DAY WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET INTO THE 50S
WEST AND LOW 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS DRAPED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...IMPULSES WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVY STEADY RAIN EAST ALONG THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL BE MORE
CONFIDED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE MODELS
TRENDING DRIER...KEEP POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE
DURING NON-DIURNAL HEATING HOURS AND HIGH CHANCE-LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WITH THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS...EDGE
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. DESPITE WARMING THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY AT
LEAST 10F FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS AN AXIS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN
SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH...LIKELY COVERING MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KLWB BY DAYBREAK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BUT DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST
MAY TAKE SHAPE. STILL APPEARS SOUTHERN SECTIONS RUNNING UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL INCLUDING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WESTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBLF/KLWB MAY BREAK BACK OUT INTO VFR
AFTER EARLY RAINFALL GIVEN DOWNSLOPE AND PASSAGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SO WENT CLOSER TO THE LESS PESSIMISTIC GFS
THERE. ELSW STAYING CLOSER TO THE LOWER CIGS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM
GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW ONCE THINGS BECOME SATURATED. ALSO PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE IN SPOTS SUCH AS KBCB/KROA.

DESPITE THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE FRIDAY EVENING...LINGERING WEDGE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
AROUND WHICH MAY HOLD MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG WITH FOG IN PLACE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ADDED RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENHANCED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY SOUTH OF ROANOKE WITH A GOOD 1-2 INCHES ELSW OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF LATE AND THE OVERALL LACK OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED BUT LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPCLY WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE REALIZED. RAINFALL
TOTALS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF HEADING INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINA
AND SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY UP TO A HALF INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE
WITH AN INCH OR MORE LIKELY IN AREAS AROUND LYNCHBURG.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS LATER TODAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010738
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
338 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...

UNUSUAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MID SUMMER LOOKS IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN S
CAROLINA TRACKS NE CROSSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE OVERRUNNING OF
WARM/MOIST AIR ON SE FLOW OVERTOP A DEVELOPING COOL WEDGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME DEGREE OF PRECIP SPREADING NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY 12Z. STILL APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND ENHANCED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE BY UPSLOPE FLOW OF NEAR 2 INCH PWATS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL INIT WAS TOO FAR WEST WITH THE CORE OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL BUT EXPECT THE CURRENT AXIS TO PIVOT MORE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR AS THE WAVE HELPS SHARPEN THE
TROF WHILE BACKING THE FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT WILL GET ENOUGH HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER A PROLONGED
PERIOD TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS PER LATEST FFG
SHOWING 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3.5-4.5 INCHES TO CAUSE FLOODING. SINCE
EXPECTING MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WONT POST A WATCH OVER THE SW FOR NOW
BUT EXPECT UPSLOPE MAY CAUSE A GOOD 2-3+ INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES.

BEST LIFT SPREADS NE WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING THE SOLID
AXIS OF PRECIP TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN/NE SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME TAPERING TO LIGHTER SHRA WEST/SW. COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW BREAKS DEVELOP FAR WEST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE COOL AIR
OTRW CLOUDY AND VERY COOL TO START AUGUST. HIGHS QUITE TRICKY AS
SOME SPOTS MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTER CAD EVENT WITH TEMPS ONLY
RISING A FEW DEGREES AT MOST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE KEEPING IT
IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART. THINK SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT
INCLUDING SW VA INTO SE WVA MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP VALUES INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S ESPCLY IF THE RAINFALL DIMINISHES A BIT FASTER AND
THINGS BRIGHTEN SLIGHTLY.

IMPULSE EXITS THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION WITHIN THE RESIDUAL
WEDGE BUT UNDERNEATH A CONTINUED DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE
FRONT OF THE 5H TROF. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING OVERNIGHT FOR
MUCH ADDED RAINFALL ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LIKELY ENOUGH WEAK
UPSLOPE TO KEEP LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS GOING BLUE RIDGE INTO LATE
THIS EVENING. FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE MAY ACTUALLY TURN
WESTERLY ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF SHRA WESTERN HALF LATE SO CUT POPS
BACK TO MAINLY CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE/FOG
OUT EAST. CONTINUED COOL WITH LOWS LIKELY ONLY FALLING A FEW
DEGREES BUT AFTER A CHILLY DAY WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET INTO THE 50S
WEST AND LOW 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS DRAPED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...IMPULSES WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVY STEADY RAIN EAST ALONG THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL BE MORE
CONFIDED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE MODELS
TRENDING DRIER...KEEP POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE
DURING NON-DIURNAL HEATING HOURS AND HIGH CHANCE-LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WITH THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS...EDGE
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. DESPITE WARMING THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY AT
LEAST 10F FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS AN AXIS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN
SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH...LIKELY COVERING MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KLWB BY DAYBREAK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BUT DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST
MAY TAKE SHAPE. STILL APPEARS SOUTHERN SECTIONS RUNNING UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL INCLUDING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WESTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBLF/KLWB MAY BREAK BACK OUT INTO VFR
AFTER EARLY RAINFALL GIVEN DOWNSLOPE AND PASSAGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SO WENT CLOSER TO THE LESS PESSIMISTIC GFS
THERE. ELSW STAYING CLOSER TO THE LOWER CIGS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM
GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW ONCE THINGS BECOME SATURATED. ALSO PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE IN SPOTS SUCH AS KBCB/KROA.

DESPITE THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE FRIDAY EVENING...LINGERING WEDGE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
AROUND WHICH MAY HOLD MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG WITH FOG IN PLACE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ADDED RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENHANCED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY SOUTH OF ROANOKE WITH A GOOD 1-2 INCHES ELSW OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF LATE AND THE OVERALL LACK OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED BUT LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPCLY WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE REALIZED. RAINFALL
TOTALS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF HEADING INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINA
AND SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY UP TO A HALF INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE
WITH AN INCH OR MORE LIKELY IN AREAS AROUND LYNCHBURG.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS LATER TODAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010506
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
106 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT THURSDAY...

TSRA HAS FADED WITH MAINLY LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC. THE 01Z HRRR/02Z RAP13 HANDLING THE COVERAGE
WELL...AND AS UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-
NORTH WITH RAINFALL ARRANGING ITSELF IN THIS FORMATION MOVING NW
INTO THE NC MTNS TO NEW RIVER VALLEY. STILL GOING TO SE HIGH
CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM I-81 EAST...WITH LESS CHANCE INTO
SE WV PER SE FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOWER NATURE OF THE FLOW...HEAVY
RAIN WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AROUND DAWN IN THE NC MTNS...BUT FFG IS
IN THE 2-3 INCH/HOUR RANGE...SO GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN...NOT
SEEING ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH URBAN
FLOODING INTO TOMORROW. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND DAWN.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HUGGING THE SURFACE TO CREATE A STABLE
LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DEVELOP ABOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCH PER HOUR RATES IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. THAT STATED...MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN DRY
LATELY...AND THE GROUND IS VERY CAPABLE OF ABSORBING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AS SUCH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR
MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP A CAP ON
HEATING...AND DO NOT SEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING
MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY BE ONLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AS SUCH...MAY WANT TO KEEP A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHORT WAVE DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE COUNTY WARNING ON SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND JET SUPPORT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TOO. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT...OF LACK OF...UPSLOPE...EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE IMPACT OF THE
COAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY.

BUFKIT AND MIXED LAYER LIFTED INDEX SHOWED A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BETTER INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. IN-SITU
WEDGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED BY THEN AND GFS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH
AS 2.0 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOTHING EXTREME SO GUIDANCE WILL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS AN AXIS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN
SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH...LIKELY COVERING MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KLWB BY DAYBREAK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BUT DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST
MAY TAKE SHAPE. STILL APPEARS SOUTHERN SECTIONS RUNNING UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL INCLUDING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WESTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBLF/KLWB MAY BREAK BACK OUT INTO VFR
AFTER EARLY RAINFALL GIVEN DOWNSLOPE AND PASSAGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SO WENT CLOSER TO THE LESS PESSIMISTIC GFS
THERE. ELSW STAYING CLOSER TO THE LOWER CIGS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM
GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW ONCE THINGS BECOME SATURATED. ALSO PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE IN SPOTS SUCH AS KBCB/KROA.

DESPITE THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE FRIDAY EVENING...LINGERING WEDGE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
AROUND WHICH MAY HOLD MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG WITH FOG IN PLACE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010506
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
106 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT THURSDAY...

TSRA HAS FADED WITH MAINLY LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC. THE 01Z HRRR/02Z RAP13 HANDLING THE COVERAGE
WELL...AND AS UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-
NORTH WITH RAINFALL ARRANGING ITSELF IN THIS FORMATION MOVING NW
INTO THE NC MTNS TO NEW RIVER VALLEY. STILL GOING TO SE HIGH
CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM I-81 EAST...WITH LESS CHANCE INTO
SE WV PER SE FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOWER NATURE OF THE FLOW...HEAVY
RAIN WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AROUND DAWN IN THE NC MTNS...BUT FFG IS
IN THE 2-3 INCH/HOUR RANGE...SO GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN...NOT
SEEING ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH URBAN
FLOODING INTO TOMORROW. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND DAWN.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HUGGING THE SURFACE TO CREATE A STABLE
LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DEVELOP ABOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCH PER HOUR RATES IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. THAT STATED...MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN DRY
LATELY...AND THE GROUND IS VERY CAPABLE OF ABSORBING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AS SUCH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR
MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP A CAP ON
HEATING...AND DO NOT SEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING
MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY BE ONLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AS SUCH...MAY WANT TO KEEP A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHORT WAVE DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE COUNTY WARNING ON SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND JET SUPPORT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TOO. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT...OF LACK OF...UPSLOPE...EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE IMPACT OF THE
COAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY.

BUFKIT AND MIXED LAYER LIFTED INDEX SHOWED A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BETTER INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. IN-SITU
WEDGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED BY THEN AND GFS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH
AS 2.0 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOTHING EXTREME SO GUIDANCE WILL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS AN AXIS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN
SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH...LIKELY COVERING MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KLWB BY DAYBREAK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BUT DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST
MAY TAKE SHAPE. STILL APPEARS SOUTHERN SECTIONS RUNNING UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL INCLUDING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WESTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBLF/KLWB MAY BREAK BACK OUT INTO VFR
AFTER EARLY RAINFALL GIVEN DOWNSLOPE AND PASSAGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SO WENT CLOSER TO THE LESS PESSIMISTIC GFS
THERE. ELSW STAYING CLOSER TO THE LOWER CIGS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM
GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW ONCE THINGS BECOME SATURATED. ALSO PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE IN SPOTS SUCH AS KBCB/KROA.

DESPITE THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE FRIDAY EVENING...LINGERING WEDGE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
AROUND WHICH MAY HOLD MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG WITH FOG IN PLACE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010400
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1200 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT THURSDAY...

TSRA HAS FADED WITH MAINLY LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC. THE 01Z HRRR/02Z RAP13 HANDLING THE COVERAGE
WELL...AND AS UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-
NORTH WITH RAINFALL ARRANGING ITSELF IN THIS FORMATION MOVING NW
INTO THE NC MTNS TO NEW RIVER VALLEY. STILL GOING TO SE HIGH
CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM I-81 EAST...WITH LESS CHANCE INTO
SE WV PER SE FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOWER NATURE OF THE FLOW...HEAVY
RAIN WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AROUND DAWN IN THE NC MTNS...BUT FFG IS
IN THE 2-3 INCH/HOUR RANGE...SO GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN...NOT
SEEING ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH URBAN
FLOODING INTO TOMORROW. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND DAWN.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HUGGING THE SURFACE TO CREATE A STABLE
LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DEVELOP ABOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCH PER HOUR RATES IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. THAT STATED...MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN DRY
LATELY...AND THE GROUND IS VERY CAPABLE OF ABSORBING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AS SUCH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR
MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP A CAP ON
HEATING...AND DO NOT SEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING
MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY BE ONLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AS SUCH...MAY WANT TO KEEP A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHORT WAVE DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE COUNTY WARNING ON SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND JET SUPPORT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TOO. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT...OF LACK OF...UPSLOPE...EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE IMPACT OF THE
COAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY.

BUFKIT AND MIXED LAYER LIFTED INDEX SHOWED A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BETTER INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. IN-SITU
WEDGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED BY THEN AND GFS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH
AS 2.0 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOTHING EXTREME SO GUIDANCE WILL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION GIVEN VARIANCE IN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. OVERALL...NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR FLYING AS WE HEAD INTO
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES TO MOVE ACROSS...BUT SEEMS THE BULLSEYE
IS OVER THE NC MTNS INTO FAR SW VA. THE PATTERN FAVORS BCB/ROA FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP. STILL WITH MOISTURE IN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...THE
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR BY 12Z FRIDAY AND THEN AFTER...MODELS
DISAGREE ON EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS. THE 18Z NAM IS KEEPING CIGS SUB
1KFT AT MOST TAF SITES WHILE THE GFS SHOWS VFR RETURNING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. LEANED INTO
BETWEEN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. HENCE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AFTER MID MORNING TOMORROW.

THINK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY SO THAT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY TAPER OFF AND END IN THE MTNS....BUT WILL NOT FORECAST
THIS YET...BASED ON MODEL DIFFERENCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010400
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1200 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT THURSDAY...

TSRA HAS FADED WITH MAINLY LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC. THE 01Z HRRR/02Z RAP13 HANDLING THE COVERAGE
WELL...AND AS UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-
NORTH WITH RAINFALL ARRANGING ITSELF IN THIS FORMATION MOVING NW
INTO THE NC MTNS TO NEW RIVER VALLEY. STILL GOING TO SE HIGH
CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM I-81 EAST...WITH LESS CHANCE INTO
SE WV PER SE FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOWER NATURE OF THE FLOW...HEAVY
RAIN WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AROUND DAWN IN THE NC MTNS...BUT FFG IS
IN THE 2-3 INCH/HOUR RANGE...SO GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN...NOT
SEEING ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH URBAN
FLOODING INTO TOMORROW. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND DAWN.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HUGGING THE SURFACE TO CREATE A STABLE
LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DEVELOP ABOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCH PER HOUR RATES IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. THAT STATED...MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN DRY
LATELY...AND THE GROUND IS VERY CAPABLE OF ABSORBING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AS SUCH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR
MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP A CAP ON
HEATING...AND DO NOT SEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING
MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY BE ONLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AS SUCH...MAY WANT TO KEEP A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHORT WAVE DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE COUNTY WARNING ON SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND JET SUPPORT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TOO. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT...OF LACK OF...UPSLOPE...EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE IMPACT OF THE
COAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY.

BUFKIT AND MIXED LAYER LIFTED INDEX SHOWED A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BETTER INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. IN-SITU
WEDGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED BY THEN AND GFS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH
AS 2.0 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOTHING EXTREME SO GUIDANCE WILL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION GIVEN VARIANCE IN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. OVERALL...NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR FLYING AS WE HEAD INTO
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES TO MOVE ACROSS...BUT SEEMS THE BULLSEYE
IS OVER THE NC MTNS INTO FAR SW VA. THE PATTERN FAVORS BCB/ROA FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP. STILL WITH MOISTURE IN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...THE
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR BY 12Z FRIDAY AND THEN AFTER...MODELS
DISAGREE ON EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS. THE 18Z NAM IS KEEPING CIGS SUB
1KFT AT MOST TAF SITES WHILE THE GFS SHOWS VFR RETURNING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. LEANED INTO
BETWEEN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. HENCE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AFTER MID MORNING TOMORROW.

THINK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY SO THAT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY TAPER OFF AND END IN THE MTNS....BUT WILL NOT FORECAST
THIS YET...BASED ON MODEL DIFFERENCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 312340
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
740 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA SPREAD FROM SRN WV INTO THE MTN EMPIRE
EAST TOWARD THE NRV...THEN SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE NC/VA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS COVERAGE
IS MORE SCATTERED OR ISOLATED ATTM. MODEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS WITH SFC LI OF -3 TO -5. OVERALL THOUGH
EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS...AND DEPARTING UPPER VORT WHICH IS
PROVIDING SOME LIFT. OTHER FORECAST GRIDS ON TARGET...THOUGH MADE
SOME HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SAT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW CELL MOVEMENT
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE EVENING.
PRECIP WILL NOT GO AWAY ALTOGETHER AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS FROM THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO INCREASE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FORCES THE MOIST AIR INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HUGGING THE SURFACE TO CREATE A STABLE
LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DEVELOP ABOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCH PER HOUR RATES IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. THAT STATED...MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN DRY
LATELY...AND THE GROUND IS VERY CAPABLE OF ABSORBING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AS SUCH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR
MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP A CAP ON
HEATING...AND DO NOT SEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING
MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY BE ONLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AS SUCH...MAY WANT TO KEEP A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHORT WAVE DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE COUNTY WARNING ON SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND JET SUPPORT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TOO. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT...OF LACK OF...UPSLOPE...EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE IMPACT OF THE
COAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY.

BUFKIT AND MIXED LAYER LIFTED INDEX SHOWED A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BETTER INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. IN-SITU
WEDGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED BY THEN AND GFS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH
AS 2.0 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOTHING EXTREME SO GUIDANCE WILL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION GIVEN VARIANCE IN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. OVERALL...NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR FLYING AS WE HEAD INTO
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES TO MOVE ACROSS...BUT SEEMS THE BULLSEYE
IS OVER THE NC MTNS INTO FAR SW VA. THE PATTERN FAVORS BCB/ROA FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP. STILL WITH MOISTURE IN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...THE
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR BY 12Z FRIDAY AND THEN AFTER...MODELS
DISAGREE ON EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS. THE 18Z NAM IS KEEPING CIGS SUB
1KFT AT MOST TAF SITES WHILE THE GFS SHOWS VFR RETURNING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. LEANED INTO
BETWEEN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. HENCE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AFTER MID MORNING TOMORROW.

THINK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY SO THAT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY TAPER OFF AND END IN THE MTNS....BUT WILL NOT FORECAST
THIS YET...BASED ON MODEL DIFFERENCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 312340
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
740 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA SPREAD FROM SRN WV INTO THE MTN EMPIRE
EAST TOWARD THE NRV...THEN SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE NC/VA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS COVERAGE
IS MORE SCATTERED OR ISOLATED ATTM. MODEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS WITH SFC LI OF -3 TO -5. OVERALL THOUGH
EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS...AND DEPARTING UPPER VORT WHICH IS
PROVIDING SOME LIFT. OTHER FORECAST GRIDS ON TARGET...THOUGH MADE
SOME HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SAT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW CELL MOVEMENT
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE EVENING.
PRECIP WILL NOT GO AWAY ALTOGETHER AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS FROM THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO INCREASE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FORCES THE MOIST AIR INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HUGGING THE SURFACE TO CREATE A STABLE
LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DEVELOP ABOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCH PER HOUR RATES IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. THAT STATED...MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN DRY
LATELY...AND THE GROUND IS VERY CAPABLE OF ABSORBING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AS SUCH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR
MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP A CAP ON
HEATING...AND DO NOT SEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING
MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY BE ONLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AS SUCH...MAY WANT TO KEEP A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHORT WAVE DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE COUNTY WARNING ON SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND JET SUPPORT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TOO. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT...OF LACK OF...UPSLOPE...EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE IMPACT OF THE
COAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY.

BUFKIT AND MIXED LAYER LIFTED INDEX SHOWED A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BETTER INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. IN-SITU
WEDGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED BY THEN AND GFS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH
AS 2.0 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOTHING EXTREME SO GUIDANCE WILL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION GIVEN VARIANCE IN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. OVERALL...NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR FLYING AS WE HEAD INTO
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES TO MOVE ACROSS...BUT SEEMS THE BULLSEYE
IS OVER THE NC MTNS INTO FAR SW VA. THE PATTERN FAVORS BCB/ROA FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP. STILL WITH MOISTURE IN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...THE
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR BY 12Z FRIDAY AND THEN AFTER...MODELS
DISAGREE ON EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS. THE 18Z NAM IS KEEPING CIGS SUB
1KFT AT MOST TAF SITES WHILE THE GFS SHOWS VFR RETURNING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. LEANED INTO
BETWEEN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. HENCE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AFTER MID MORNING TOMORROW.

THINK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY SO THAT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY TAPER OFF AND END IN THE MTNS....BUT WILL NOT FORECAST
THIS YET...BASED ON MODEL DIFFERENCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 312216
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
616 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA SPREAD FROM SRN WV INTO THE MTN EMPIRE
EAST TOWARD THE NRV...THEN SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE NC/VA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS COVERAGE
IS MORE SCATTERED OR ISOLATED ATTM. MODEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS WITH SFC LI OF -3 TO -5. OVERALL THOUGH
EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS...AND DEPARTING UPPER VORT WHICH IS
PROVIDING SOME LIFT. OTHER FORECAST GRIDS ON TARGET...THOUGH MADE
SOME HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SAT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW CELL MOVEMENT
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE EVENING.
PRECIP WILL NOT GO AWAY ALTOGETHER AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS FROM THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO INCREASE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FORCES THE MOIST AIR INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HUGGING THE SURFACE TO CREATE A STABLE
LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DEVELOP ABOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCH PER HOUR RATES IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. THAT STATED...MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN DRY
LATELY...AND THE GROUND IS VERY CAPABLE OF ABSORBING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AS SUCH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR
MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP A CAP ON
HEATING...AND DO NOT SEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING
MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY BE ONLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AS SUCH...MAY WANT TO KEEP A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHORT WAVE DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE COUNTY WARNING ON SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND JET SUPPORT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TOO. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT...OF LACK OF...UPSLOPE...EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE IMPACT OF THE
COAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY.

BUFKIT AND MIXED LAYER LIFTED INDEX SHOWED A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BETTER INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. IN-SITU
WEDGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED BY THEN AND GFS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH
AS 2.0 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOTHING EXTREME SO GUIDANCE WILL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...CAUSING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE
SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST...WITH WINDS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
BEGINNING TO DRAW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART...ALBEIT WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
PROVIDE THE ONLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...AS HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH MID
EVENING...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR
AS RAINFALL BECOMES WIDESPREAD. RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION FROM
SHOWERY TO PROLONGED STRATIFORM THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON WEDGE CHARACTERISTICS AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT RAINFALL TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES...MAKING
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP...
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THE WEDGE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA STABLE...SO DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY.CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW
AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 312216
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
616 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA SPREAD FROM SRN WV INTO THE MTN EMPIRE
EAST TOWARD THE NRV...THEN SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE NC/VA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS COVERAGE
IS MORE SCATTERED OR ISOLATED ATTM. MODEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS WITH SFC LI OF -3 TO -5. OVERALL THOUGH
EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS...AND DEPARTING UPPER VORT WHICH IS
PROVIDING SOME LIFT. OTHER FORECAST GRIDS ON TARGET...THOUGH MADE
SOME HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SAT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW CELL MOVEMENT
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE EVENING.
PRECIP WILL NOT GO AWAY ALTOGETHER AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS FROM THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO INCREASE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FORCES THE MOIST AIR INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HUGGING THE SURFACE TO CREATE A STABLE
LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DEVELOP ABOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCH PER HOUR RATES IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. THAT STATED...MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN DRY
LATELY...AND THE GROUND IS VERY CAPABLE OF ABSORBING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AS SUCH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR
MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP A CAP ON
HEATING...AND DO NOT SEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING
MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY BE ONLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AS SUCH...MAY WANT TO KEEP A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHORT WAVE DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE COUNTY WARNING ON SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND JET SUPPORT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TOO. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT...OF LACK OF...UPSLOPE...EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE IMPACT OF THE
COAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY.

BUFKIT AND MIXED LAYER LIFTED INDEX SHOWED A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BETTER INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. IN-SITU
WEDGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED BY THEN AND GFS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH
AS 2.0 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOTHING EXTREME SO GUIDANCE WILL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...CAUSING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE
SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST...WITH WINDS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
BEGINNING TO DRAW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART...ALBEIT WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
PROVIDE THE ONLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...AS HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH MID
EVENING...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR
AS RAINFALL BECOMES WIDESPREAD. RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION FROM
SHOWERY TO PROLONGED STRATIFORM THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON WEDGE CHARACTERISTICS AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT RAINFALL TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES...MAKING
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP...
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THE WEDGE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA STABLE...SO DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY.CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW
AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 312006
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RADAR INDICATES SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW IN THE FOOTHILLS...ALL SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
INTENSIFYING...AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BEFORE EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE NOTICED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT MORE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...FORMING A WEAK WEDGE AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE HIGH ARE CARRYING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...AS EVIDENCED BY OUR INCREASING
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING IN SPOTTY HIT AND MISS FASHION. WINDS ALOFT ARE
LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE EVENING. BELIEVE THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ALTOGETHER AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO INTERACT WITH
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS
FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE
TO INCREASE AGAIN...WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES EXPECTED TOWARD
DAWN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FORCES THE MOIST
AIR INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HUGGING THE SURFACE TO CREATE A STABLE
LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DEVELOP ABOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCH PER HOUR RATES IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. THAT STATED...MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN DRY
LATELY...AND THE GROUND IS VERY CAPABLE OF ABSORBING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AS SUCH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR
MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP A CAP ON
HEATING...AND DO NOT SEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING
MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY BE ONLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AS SUCH...MAY WANT TO KEEP A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHORT WAVE DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE COUNTY WARNING ON SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND JET SUPPORT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TOO. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT...OF LACK OF...UPSLOPE...EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE IMPACT OF THE
COAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY.

BUFKIT AND MIXED LAYER LIFTED INDEX SHOWED A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BETTER INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. IN-SITU
WEDGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED BY THEN AND GFS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH
AS 2.0 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOTHING EXTREME SO GUIDANCE WILL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...CAUSING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE
SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST...WITH WINDS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
BEGINNING TO DRAW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART...ALBEIT WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
PROVIDE THE ONLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...AS HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH MID
EVENING...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR
AS RAINFALL BECOMES WIDESPREAD. RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION FROM
SHOWERY TO PROLONGED STRATIFORM THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON WEDGE CHARACTERISTICS AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT RAINFALL TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES...MAKING
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP...
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THE WEDGE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA STABLE...SO DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY.CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW
AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 312006
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RADAR INDICATES SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW IN THE FOOTHILLS...ALL SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
INTENSIFYING...AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BEFORE EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE NOTICED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT MORE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...FORMING A WEAK WEDGE AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE HIGH ARE CARRYING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...AS EVIDENCED BY OUR INCREASING
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING IN SPOTTY HIT AND MISS FASHION. WINDS ALOFT ARE
LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE EVENING. BELIEVE THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ALTOGETHER AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO INTERACT WITH
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS
FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE
TO INCREASE AGAIN...WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES EXPECTED TOWARD
DAWN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FORCES THE MOIST
AIR INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HUGGING THE SURFACE TO CREATE A STABLE
LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DEVELOP ABOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCH PER HOUR RATES IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. THAT STATED...MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN DRY
LATELY...AND THE GROUND IS VERY CAPABLE OF ABSORBING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AS SUCH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR
MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP A CAP ON
HEATING...AND DO NOT SEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING
MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY BE ONLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AS SUCH...MAY WANT TO KEEP A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SHORT WAVE DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE COUNTY WARNING ON SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND JET SUPPORT LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TOO. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT...OF LACK OF...UPSLOPE...EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE IMPACT OF THE
COAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY.

BUFKIT AND MIXED LAYER LIFTED INDEX SHOWED A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BETTER INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. IN-SITU
WEDGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED BY THEN AND GFS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH
AS 2.0 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOTHING EXTREME SO GUIDANCE WILL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...CAUSING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE
SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST...WITH WINDS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
BEGINNING TO DRAW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART...ALBEIT WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
PROVIDE THE ONLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...AS HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH MID
EVENING...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR
AS RAINFALL BECOMES WIDESPREAD. RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION FROM
SHOWERY TO PROLONGED STRATIFORM THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON WEDGE CHARACTERISTICS AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT RAINFALL TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES...MAKING
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP...
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THE WEDGE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA STABLE...SO DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY.CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW
AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311824
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
224 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTING TO RETROGRADE TO
THE WEST. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...ALSO
NUDGED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STILL LOOKING FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE FILLING IN SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE EVENING.

AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRANSITION FROM THE DRY/COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE TO A WETTER SCENARIO
TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE LINGERING 5H TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT WEST
WHILE THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SLOWLY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SE FLOW
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER FORCING
TODAY REMAINS RATHER FAINT GIVEN A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH LINGERING
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST MID LEVEL ENERGY STILL BACK TO THE SW
UNDER THE BASE OF THE COOL POOL. MODELS DO GRADUALLY BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SE FLOW PROVIDING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST IN THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME GUIDANCE FEEDS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN FROM THE SE PER FORECAST RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SW EARLY ON...THEN
EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST BY THIS EVENING. APPEARS THUNDER LIMITED
TO THE FAR SOUTH AND SE GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY BUT SUGGESTED BY A
FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SPC WRF AND NCEP WRF/NAM. THUS
INCLUDED MENTION LATER WITH BUMP IN CHANCE POPS A BIT MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460...WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS FARTHER NORTH WHERE MORE
SUN LIKELY TODAY. HIGHS PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW MOS SOUTH AND BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN CLOUDS AND SE FLOW BUT OVERALL SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

MAY SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHRA OVER OKLAHOMA ROUNDS THE
TROUGH AND APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING QUITE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
GOOD OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL WEDGE. APPEARS SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NW NC MOUNTAINS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE AIDED UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH THE HEAVIEST BLUE RIDGE AND SW...BUT
WITH ANY THUNDER BEING ELEVATED/ISOLATED AND MAINLY SW OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE BETTER LIFT SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL. THUS
RUNNING WITH HIGH LIKELY/LOW CAT POPS FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS SW ALONG WITH HIGH CHANCES ELSW FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS A
BIT MORE WARM/HUMID AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK WITH MOST ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
A BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY
MORNING A HYBRID WEDGE WILL LAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THIS TROUGH
WILL RIDE OVER THE WEDGE...BRINGING A LONG PERIOD OF GRAY DREARY
WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE
TIME...BUT IT WILL RAIN/DRIZZLE MOST OF THE TIME. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR AREA-WIDE RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE 3 DAYS. THE WEDGE
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA STABLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THERE EXIST SOME
INSTABILITIES ALOFT FOR AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BETTER
INSTABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS ALLOWED TO ERODE.

WITH A WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW IN PLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE ADDITION OF RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE...I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 3F- 5F...PRODUCING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15F COLDER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...CAUSING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE
SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST...WITH WINDS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
BEGINNING TO DRAW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART...ALBEIT WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
PROVIDE THE ONLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...AS HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH MID
EVENING...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR
AS RAINFALL BECOMES WIDESPREAD. RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION FROM
SHOWERY TO PROLONGED STRATIFORM THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON WEDGE CHARACTERISTICS AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT RAINFALL TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES...MAKING
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP...
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THE WEDGE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA STABLE...SO DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY.CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW
AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311824
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
224 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTING TO RETROGRADE TO
THE WEST. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...ALSO
NUDGED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STILL LOOKING FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE FILLING IN SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE EVENING.

AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRANSITION FROM THE DRY/COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE TO A WETTER SCENARIO
TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE LINGERING 5H TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT WEST
WHILE THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SLOWLY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SE FLOW
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER FORCING
TODAY REMAINS RATHER FAINT GIVEN A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH LINGERING
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST MID LEVEL ENERGY STILL BACK TO THE SW
UNDER THE BASE OF THE COOL POOL. MODELS DO GRADUALLY BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SE FLOW PROVIDING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST IN THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME GUIDANCE FEEDS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN FROM THE SE PER FORECAST RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SW EARLY ON...THEN
EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST BY THIS EVENING. APPEARS THUNDER LIMITED
TO THE FAR SOUTH AND SE GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY BUT SUGGESTED BY A
FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SPC WRF AND NCEP WRF/NAM. THUS
INCLUDED MENTION LATER WITH BUMP IN CHANCE POPS A BIT MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460...WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS FARTHER NORTH WHERE MORE
SUN LIKELY TODAY. HIGHS PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW MOS SOUTH AND BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN CLOUDS AND SE FLOW BUT OVERALL SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

MAY SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHRA OVER OKLAHOMA ROUNDS THE
TROUGH AND APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING QUITE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
GOOD OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL WEDGE. APPEARS SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NW NC MOUNTAINS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE AIDED UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH THE HEAVIEST BLUE RIDGE AND SW...BUT
WITH ANY THUNDER BEING ELEVATED/ISOLATED AND MAINLY SW OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE BETTER LIFT SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL. THUS
RUNNING WITH HIGH LIKELY/LOW CAT POPS FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS SW ALONG WITH HIGH CHANCES ELSW FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS A
BIT MORE WARM/HUMID AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK WITH MOST ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
A BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY
MORNING A HYBRID WEDGE WILL LAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THIS TROUGH
WILL RIDE OVER THE WEDGE...BRINGING A LONG PERIOD OF GRAY DREARY
WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE
TIME...BUT IT WILL RAIN/DRIZZLE MOST OF THE TIME. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR AREA-WIDE RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE 3 DAYS. THE WEDGE
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA STABLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THERE EXIST SOME
INSTABILITIES ALOFT FOR AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BETTER
INSTABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS ALLOWED TO ERODE.

WITH A WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW IN PLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE ADDITION OF RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE...I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 3F- 5F...PRODUCING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15F COLDER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...CAUSING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE
SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST...WITH WINDS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
BEGINNING TO DRAW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART...ALBEIT WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
PROVIDE THE ONLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...AS HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH MID
EVENING...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR
AS RAINFALL BECOMES WIDESPREAD. RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION FROM
SHOWERY TO PROLONGED STRATIFORM THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON WEDGE CHARACTERISTICS AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT RAINFALL TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES...MAKING
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP...
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THE WEDGE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA STABLE...SO DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY.CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW
AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311427
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1027 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTING TO RETROGRADE TO
THE WEST. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...ALSO
NUDGED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STILL LOOKING FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE FILLING IN SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE EVENING.

AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRANSITION FROM THE DRY/COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE TO A WETTER SCENARIO
TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE LINGERING 5H TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT WEST
WHILE THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SLOWLY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SE FLOW
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER FORCING
TODAY REMAINS RATHER FAINT GIVEN A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH LINGERING
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST MID LEVEL ENERGY STILL BACK TO THE SW
UNDER THE BASE OF THE COOL POOL. MODELS DO GRADUALLY BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SE FLOW PROVIDING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST IN THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME GUIDANCE FEEDS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN FROM THE SE PER FORECAST RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SW EARLY ON...THEN
EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST BY THIS EVENING. APPEARS THUNDER LIMITED
TO THE FAR SOUTH AND SE GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY BUT SUGGESTED BY A
FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SPC WRF AND NCEP WRF/NAM. THUS
INCLUDED MENTION LATER WITH BUMP IN CHANCE POPS A BIT MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460...WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS FARTHER NORTH WHERE MORE
SUN LIKELY TODAY. HIGHS PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW MOS SOUTH AND BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN CLOUDS AND SE FLOW BUT OVERALL SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

MAY SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHRA OVER OKLAHOMA ROUNDS THE
TROUGH AND APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING QUITE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
GOOD OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL WEDGE. APPEARS SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NW NC MOUNTAINS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE AIDED UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH THE HEAVIEST BLUE RIDGE AND SW...BUT
WITH ANY THUNDER BEING ELEVATED/ISOLATED AND MAINLY SW OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE BETTER LIFT SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL. THUS
RUNNING WITH HIGH LIKELY/LOW CAT POPS FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS SW ALONG WITH HIGH CHANCES ELSW FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS A
BIT MORE WARM/HUMID AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK WITH MOST ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
A BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY
MORNING A HYBRID WEDGE WILL LAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THIS TROUGH
WILL RIDE OVER THE WEDGE...BRINGING A LONG PERIOD OF GRAY DREARY
WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE
TIME...BUT IT WILL RAIN/DRIZZLE MOST OF THE TIME. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR AREA-WIDE RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE 3 DAYS. THE WEDGE
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA STABLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THERE EXIST SOME
INSTABILITIES ALOFT FOR AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BETTER
INSTABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS ALLOWED TO ERODE.

WITH A WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW IN PLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE ADDITION OF RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE...I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 3F- 5F...PRODUCING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15F COLDER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR TO LIFR IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 13Z/9AM.

OTRW ANY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD FADE INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
DEVELOPING 4-6K FT CU FIELDS UNDERNEATH A SCTD/BKN CI SHIELD INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THIS SPREADING NE TO KBLF/KBCB AND KROA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT COVERAGE LACKING AND LIKELY NOT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THUS ONLY
INCLUDING A VCSH AT KBCB FOR NOW AND LEAVING ELSW DRY. OTRW VFR
WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPULSE ROUNDING IN FROM THE SW SUPPORTS INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THIS EVENING WITH BASES LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS. THIS MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT BUT APPEARS INCREASING MVFR
LIKELY IN MOST SPOTS FROM SW TO NE BY DAYBREAK. THEREFORE ADDED
MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS WELL AT MOST LOCATIONS NEAR THE END OF
THE VALID LATE NIGHT TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW ALOFT...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW AND TAKES
MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR- LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311427
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1027 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTING TO RETROGRADE TO
THE WEST. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...ALSO
NUDGED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STILL LOOKING FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE FILLING IN SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE EVENING.

AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRANSITION FROM THE DRY/COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE TO A WETTER SCENARIO
TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE LINGERING 5H TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT WEST
WHILE THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SLOWLY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SE FLOW
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER FORCING
TODAY REMAINS RATHER FAINT GIVEN A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH LINGERING
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST MID LEVEL ENERGY STILL BACK TO THE SW
UNDER THE BASE OF THE COOL POOL. MODELS DO GRADUALLY BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SE FLOW PROVIDING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST IN THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME GUIDANCE FEEDS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN FROM THE SE PER FORECAST RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SW EARLY ON...THEN
EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST BY THIS EVENING. APPEARS THUNDER LIMITED
TO THE FAR SOUTH AND SE GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY BUT SUGGESTED BY A
FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SPC WRF AND NCEP WRF/NAM. THUS
INCLUDED MENTION LATER WITH BUMP IN CHANCE POPS A BIT MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460...WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS FARTHER NORTH WHERE MORE
SUN LIKELY TODAY. HIGHS PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW MOS SOUTH AND BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN CLOUDS AND SE FLOW BUT OVERALL SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

MAY SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHRA OVER OKLAHOMA ROUNDS THE
TROUGH AND APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING QUITE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
GOOD OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL WEDGE. APPEARS SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NW NC MOUNTAINS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE AIDED UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH THE HEAVIEST BLUE RIDGE AND SW...BUT
WITH ANY THUNDER BEING ELEVATED/ISOLATED AND MAINLY SW OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE BETTER LIFT SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL. THUS
RUNNING WITH HIGH LIKELY/LOW CAT POPS FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS SW ALONG WITH HIGH CHANCES ELSW FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS A
BIT MORE WARM/HUMID AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK WITH MOST ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
A BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY
MORNING A HYBRID WEDGE WILL LAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THIS TROUGH
WILL RIDE OVER THE WEDGE...BRINGING A LONG PERIOD OF GRAY DREARY
WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE
TIME...BUT IT WILL RAIN/DRIZZLE MOST OF THE TIME. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR AREA-WIDE RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE 3 DAYS. THE WEDGE
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA STABLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THERE EXIST SOME
INSTABILITIES ALOFT FOR AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BETTER
INSTABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS ALLOWED TO ERODE.

WITH A WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW IN PLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE ADDITION OF RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE...I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 3F- 5F...PRODUCING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15F COLDER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR TO LIFR IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 13Z/9AM.

OTRW ANY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD FADE INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
DEVELOPING 4-6K FT CU FIELDS UNDERNEATH A SCTD/BKN CI SHIELD INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THIS SPREADING NE TO KBLF/KBCB AND KROA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT COVERAGE LACKING AND LIKELY NOT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THUS ONLY
INCLUDING A VCSH AT KBCB FOR NOW AND LEAVING ELSW DRY. OTRW VFR
WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPULSE ROUNDING IN FROM THE SW SUPPORTS INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THIS EVENING WITH BASES LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS. THIS MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT BUT APPEARS INCREASING MVFR
LIKELY IN MOST SPOTS FROM SW TO NE BY DAYBREAK. THEREFORE ADDED
MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS WELL AT MOST LOCATIONS NEAR THE END OF
THE VALID LATE NIGHT TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW ALOFT...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW AND TAKES
MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR- LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311128
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
728 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRANSITION FROM THE DRY/COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE TO A WETTER SCENARIO
TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE LINGERING 5H TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT WEST
WHILE THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SLOWLY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SE FLOW
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER FORCING
TODAY REMAINS RATHER FAINT GIVEN A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH LINGERING
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST MID LEVEL ENERGY STILL BACK TO THE SW
UNDER THE BASE OF THE COOL POOL. MODELS DO GRADUALLY BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SE FLOW PROVIDING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST IN THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME GUIDANCE FEEDS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN FROM THE SE PER FORECAST RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SW EARLY ON...THEN
EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST BY THIS EVENING. APPEARS THUNDER LIMITED
TO THE FAR SOUTH AND SE GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY BUT SUGGESTED BY A
FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SPC WRF AND NCEP WRF/NAM. THUS
INCLUDED MENTION LATER WITH BUMP IN CHANCE POPS A BIT MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460...WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS FARTHER NORTH WHERE MORE
SUN LIKELY TODAY. HIGHS PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW MOS SOUTH AND BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN CLOUDS AND SE FLOW BUT OVERALL SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

MAY SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHRA OVER OKLAHOMA ROUNDS THE
TROUGH AND APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING QUITE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
GOOD OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL WEDGE. APPEARS SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NW NC MOUNTAINS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE AIDED UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH THE HEAVIEST BLUE RIDGE AND SW...BUT
WITH ANY THUNDER BEING ELEVATED/ISOLATED AND MAINLY SW OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE BETTER LIFT SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL. THUS
RUNNING WITH HIGH LIKELY/LOW CAT POPS FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS SW ALONG WITH HIGH CHANCES ELSW FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS A
BIT MORE WARM/HUMID AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK WITH MOST ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A
BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY MORNING
     A HYBRID WEDGE WILL LAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THIS TROUGH WILL
RIDE OVER THE WEDGE...BRINGING A LONG PERIOD OF GRAY DREARY WEATHER
TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME...BUT
IT WILL RAIN/DRIZZLE MOST OF THE TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREA-WIDE
RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW...HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE 3 DAYS. THE WEDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
STABLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THERE EXIST SOME INSTABILITIES ALOFT FOR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BETTER INSTABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE WEDGE IS ALLOWED TO ERODE.

WITH A WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW IN PLAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE ADDITION
OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE...I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 3F-5F...PRODUCING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15F COLDER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR TO LIFR IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 13Z/9AM.

OTRW ANY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD FADE INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
DEVELOPING 4-6K FT CU FIELDS UNDERNEATH A SCTD/BKN CI SHIELD INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THIS SPREADING NE TO KBLF/KBCB AND KROA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT COVERAGE LACKING AND LIKELY NOT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THUS ONLY
INCLUDING A VCSH AT KBCB FOR NOW AND LEAVING ELSW DRY. OTRW VFR
WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPULSE ROUNDING IN FROM THE SW SUPPORTS INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THIS EVENING WITH BASES LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS. THIS MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT BUT APPEARS INCREASING MVFR
LIKELY IN MOST SPOTS FROM SW TO NE BY DAYBREAK. THEREFORE ADDED
MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS WELL AT MOST LOCATIONS NEAR THE END OF
THE VALID LATE NIGHT TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW ALOFT...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW AND TAKES
MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR- LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311128
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
728 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRANSITION FROM THE DRY/COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE TO A WETTER SCENARIO
TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE LINGERING 5H TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT WEST
WHILE THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SLOWLY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SE FLOW
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER FORCING
TODAY REMAINS RATHER FAINT GIVEN A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH LINGERING
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST MID LEVEL ENERGY STILL BACK TO THE SW
UNDER THE BASE OF THE COOL POOL. MODELS DO GRADUALLY BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SE FLOW PROVIDING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST IN THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME GUIDANCE FEEDS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN FROM THE SE PER FORECAST RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SW EARLY ON...THEN
EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST BY THIS EVENING. APPEARS THUNDER LIMITED
TO THE FAR SOUTH AND SE GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY BUT SUGGESTED BY A
FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SPC WRF AND NCEP WRF/NAM. THUS
INCLUDED MENTION LATER WITH BUMP IN CHANCE POPS A BIT MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460...WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS FARTHER NORTH WHERE MORE
SUN LIKELY TODAY. HIGHS PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW MOS SOUTH AND BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN CLOUDS AND SE FLOW BUT OVERALL SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

MAY SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHRA OVER OKLAHOMA ROUNDS THE
TROUGH AND APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING QUITE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
GOOD OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL WEDGE. APPEARS SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NW NC MOUNTAINS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE AIDED UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH THE HEAVIEST BLUE RIDGE AND SW...BUT
WITH ANY THUNDER BEING ELEVATED/ISOLATED AND MAINLY SW OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE BETTER LIFT SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL. THUS
RUNNING WITH HIGH LIKELY/LOW CAT POPS FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS SW ALONG WITH HIGH CHANCES ELSW FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS A
BIT MORE WARM/HUMID AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK WITH MOST ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A
BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY MORNING
     A HYBRID WEDGE WILL LAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THIS TROUGH WILL
RIDE OVER THE WEDGE...BRINGING A LONG PERIOD OF GRAY DREARY WEATHER
TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME...BUT
IT WILL RAIN/DRIZZLE MOST OF THE TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREA-WIDE
RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW...HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE 3 DAYS. THE WEDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
STABLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THERE EXIST SOME INSTABILITIES ALOFT FOR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BETTER INSTABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE WEDGE IS ALLOWED TO ERODE.

WITH A WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW IN PLAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE ADDITION
OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE...I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 3F-5F...PRODUCING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15F COLDER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR TO LIFR IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 13Z/9AM.

OTRW ANY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD FADE INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
DEVELOPING 4-6K FT CU FIELDS UNDERNEATH A SCTD/BKN CI SHIELD INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THIS SPREADING NE TO KBLF/KBCB AND KROA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT COVERAGE LACKING AND LIKELY NOT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THUS ONLY
INCLUDING A VCSH AT KBCB FOR NOW AND LEAVING ELSW DRY. OTRW VFR
WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPULSE ROUNDING IN FROM THE SW SUPPORTS INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THIS EVENING WITH BASES LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS. THIS MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT BUT APPEARS INCREASING MVFR
LIKELY IN MOST SPOTS FROM SW TO NE BY DAYBREAK. THEREFORE ADDED
MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS WELL AT MOST LOCATIONS NEAR THE END OF
THE VALID LATE NIGHT TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW ALOFT...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW AND TAKES
MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR- LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311118
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRANSITION FROM THE DRY/COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE TO A WETTER SCENARIO
TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE LINGERING 5H TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT WEST
WHILE THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SLOWLY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SE FLOW
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER FORCING
TODAY REMAINS RATHER FAINT GIVEN A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH LINGERING
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST MID LEVEL ENERGY STILL BACK TO THE SW
UNDER THE BASE OF THE COOL POOL. MODELS DO GRADUALLY BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SE FLOW PROVIDING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST IN THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME GUIDANCE FEEDS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN FROM THE SE PER FORECAST RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SW EARLY ON...THEN
EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST BY THIS EVENING. APPEARS THUNDER LIMITED
TO THE FAR SOUTH AND SE GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY BUT SUGGESTED BY A
FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SPC WRF AND NCEP WRF/NAM. THUS
INCLUDED MENTION LATER WITH BUMP IN CHANCE POPS A BIT MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460...WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS FARTHER NORTH WHERE MORE
SUN LIKELY TODAY. HIGHS PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW MOS SOUTH AND BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN CLOUDS AND SE FLOW BUT OVERALL SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

MAY SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHRA OVER OKLAHOMA ROUNDS THE
TROUGH AND APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING QUITE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
GOOD OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL WEDGE. APPEARS SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NW NC MOUNTAINS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE AIDED UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH THE HEAVIEST BLUE RIDGE AND SW...BUT
WITH ANY THUNDER BEING ELEVATED/ISOLATED AND MAINLY SW OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE BETTER LIFT SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL. THUS
RUNNING WITH HIGH LIKELY/LOW CAT POPS FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS SW ALONG WITH HIGH CHANCES ELSW FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS A
BIT MORE WARM/HUMID AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK WITH MOST ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A
BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY MORNING
     A HYBRID WEDGE WILL LAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THIS TROUGH WILL
RIDE OVER THE WEDGE...BRINGING A LONG PERIOD OF GRAY DREARY WEATHER
TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME...BUT
IT WILL RAIN/DRIZZLE MOST OF THE TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREA-WIDE
RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW...HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE 3 DAYS. THE WEDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
STABLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THERE EXIST SOME INSTABILITIES ALOFT FOR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BETTER INSTABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE WEDGE IS ALLOWED TO ERODE.

WITH A WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW IN PLAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE ADDITION
OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE...I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 3F-5F...PRODUCING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15F COLDER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR TO LIFR IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 13Z/9AM.

OTRW ANY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD FADE INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
DEVELOPING 4-6K FT CU FIELDS UNDERNEATH A SCTD/BKN CI SHIELD INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THIS SPREADING NE TO KBLF/KBCB AND KROA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT COVERAGE LACKING AND LIKELY NOT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THUS ONLY
INCLUDING A VCSH AT KBCB FOR NOW AND LEAVING ELSW DRY. OTRW VFR
WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPULSE ROUNDING IN FROM THE SW SUPPORTS INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THIS EVENING WITH BASES LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS. THIS MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT BUT APPEARS INCREASING MVFR
LIKELY IN MOST SPOTS FROM SW TO NE BY DAYBREAK. THEREFORE ADDED
MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS WELL AT MOST LOCATIONS NEAR THE END OF
THE VALID LATE NIGHT TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW ALOFT...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW AND TAKES
MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR- LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311118
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRANSITION FROM THE DRY/COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE TO A WETTER SCENARIO
TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE LINGERING 5H TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT WEST
WHILE THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SLOWLY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SE FLOW
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER FORCING
TODAY REMAINS RATHER FAINT GIVEN A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH LINGERING
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST MID LEVEL ENERGY STILL BACK TO THE SW
UNDER THE BASE OF THE COOL POOL. MODELS DO GRADUALLY BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SE FLOW PROVIDING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST IN THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME GUIDANCE FEEDS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN FROM THE SE PER FORECAST RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SW EARLY ON...THEN
EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST BY THIS EVENING. APPEARS THUNDER LIMITED
TO THE FAR SOUTH AND SE GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY BUT SUGGESTED BY A
FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SPC WRF AND NCEP WRF/NAM. THUS
INCLUDED MENTION LATER WITH BUMP IN CHANCE POPS A BIT MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460...WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS FARTHER NORTH WHERE MORE
SUN LIKELY TODAY. HIGHS PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW MOS SOUTH AND BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN CLOUDS AND SE FLOW BUT OVERALL SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

MAY SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHRA OVER OKLAHOMA ROUNDS THE
TROUGH AND APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING QUITE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
GOOD OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL WEDGE. APPEARS SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NW NC MOUNTAINS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE AIDED UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH THE HEAVIEST BLUE RIDGE AND SW...BUT
WITH ANY THUNDER BEING ELEVATED/ISOLATED AND MAINLY SW OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE BETTER LIFT SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL. THUS
RUNNING WITH HIGH LIKELY/LOW CAT POPS FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS SW ALONG WITH HIGH CHANCES ELSW FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS A
BIT MORE WARM/HUMID AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK WITH MOST ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A
BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY MORNING
     A HYBRID WEDGE WILL LAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THIS TROUGH WILL
RIDE OVER THE WEDGE...BRINGING A LONG PERIOD OF GRAY DREARY WEATHER
TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME...BUT
IT WILL RAIN/DRIZZLE MOST OF THE TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREA-WIDE
RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW...HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE 3 DAYS. THE WEDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
STABLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THERE EXIST SOME INSTABILITIES ALOFT FOR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BETTER INSTABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE WEDGE IS ALLOWED TO ERODE.

WITH A WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW IN PLAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE ADDITION
OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE...I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 3F-5F...PRODUCING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15F COLDER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR TO LIFR IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 13Z/9AM.

OTRW ANY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD FADE INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
DEVELOPING 4-6K FT CU FIELDS UNDERNEATH A SCTD/BKN CI SHIELD INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THIS SPREADING NE TO KBLF/KBCB AND KROA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT COVERAGE LACKING AND LIKELY NOT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THUS ONLY
INCLUDING A VCSH AT KBCB FOR NOW AND LEAVING ELSW DRY. OTRW VFR
WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPULSE ROUNDING IN FROM THE SW SUPPORTS INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THIS EVENING WITH BASES LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS. THIS MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT BUT APPEARS INCREASING MVFR
LIKELY IN MOST SPOTS FROM SW TO NE BY DAYBREAK. THEREFORE ADDED
MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS WELL AT MOST LOCATIONS NEAR THE END OF
THE VALID LATE NIGHT TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW ALOFT...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW AND TAKES
MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR- LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310730
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRANSITION FROM THE DRY/COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE TO A WETTER SCENARIO
TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE LINGERING 5H TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT WEST
WHILE THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SLOWLY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SE FLOW
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER FORCING
TODAY REMAINS RATHER FAINT GIVEN A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH LINGERING
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST MID LEVEL ENERGY STILL BACK TO THE SW
UNDER THE BASE OF THE COOL POOL. MODELS DO GRADUALLY BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SE FLOW PROVIDING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST IN THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME GUIDANCE FEEDS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN FROM THE SE PER FORECAST RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SW EARLY ON...THEN
EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST BY THIS EVENING. APPEARS THUNDER LIMITED
TO THE FAR SOUTH AND SE GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY BUT SUGGESTED BY A
FEW SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SPC WRF AND NCEP WRF/NAM. THUS
INCLUDED MENTION LATER WITH BUMP IN CHANCE POPS A BIT MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 460...WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS FARTHER NORTH WHERE MORE
SUN LIKELY TODAY. HIGHS PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW MOS SOUTH AND BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN CLOUDS AND SE FLOW BUT OVERALL SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

MAY SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHRA OVER OKLAHOMA ROUNDS THE
TROUGH AND APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING QUITE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
GOOD OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL WEDGE. APPEARS SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NW NC MOUNTAINS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE AIDED UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH THE HEAVIEST BLUE RIDGE AND SW...BUT
WITH ANY THUNDER BEING ELEVATED/ISOLATED AND MAINLY SW OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE BETTER LIFT SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL. THUS
RUNNING WITH HIGH LIKELY/LOW CAT POPS FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS SW ALONG WITH HIGH CHANCES ELSW FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS A
BIT MORE WARM/HUMID AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK WITH MOST ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A
BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY MORNING
...A HYBRID WEDGE WILL LAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THIS TROUGH WILL
RIDE OVER THE WEDGE...BRINGING A LONG PERIOD OF GRAY DREARY WEATHER
TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME...BUT
IT WILL RAIN/DRIZZLE MOST OF THE TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREA-WIDE
RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW...HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE 3 DAYS. THE WEDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
STABLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THERE EXIST SOME INSTABILITIES ALOFT FOR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BETTER INSTABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE WEDGE IS ALLOWED TO ERODE.

WITH A WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW IN PLAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE ADDITION
OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE...I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 3F-5F...PRODUCING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15F COLDER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SW THROUGH DAYBREAK ALONG WITH PASSING MID DECK ACROSS
THE NW. THIS MAY TEND TO MITIGATE FOG TO SOME EXTENT BUT STILL
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR AT KLWB BEFORE DAWN...AND MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR AT KBCB PENDING DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. SOME SPOTTY OCNL
MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AT KLYH/KDAN AROUND SUNRISE WITH
MORE COVERAGE AROUND KLYH AT THIS POINT IF AT ALL.

ANY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD FADE BY MID MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF DEVELOPING 4-6K FT CU FIELDS UNDERNEATH A CI CANOPY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF BKN CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SW EARLY ON WITH THIS SPREADING NE TO KBLF/KBCB AND KROA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT COVERAGE LACKING AND LIKELY NOT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATER THURSDAY SO LEAVING OUT SHOWER MENTION
FOR NOW. OTRW VFR WITH WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPULSE ROUNDING IN FROM THE SW SUPPORTS INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BASES LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS. THIS MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH IFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPCLY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW ALOFT...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW AND TAKES
MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR- LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310512
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
112 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT OVERALL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE WV EARLY. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SPRINKLE/SHOWERS OUT
EAST AS THETA-E RIDGE AND SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OCCURS.

SKIES FOR MOST OF US WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARE A LITTLE THICKER TOWARD THE NC MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST LOWS STILL OVERALL LOOKING ONLINE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
DEEPER VALLEYS TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS SHOULD ALSO FORM GIVEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
GROWING IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SW THROUGH DAYBREAK ALONG WITH PASSING MID DECK ACROSS
THE NW. THIS MAY TEND TO MITIGATE FOG TO SOME EXTENT BUT STILL
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR AT KLWB BEFORE DAWN...AND MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR AT KBCB PENDING DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. SOME SPOTTY OCNL
MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AT KLYH/KDAN AROUND SUNRISE WITH
MORE COVERAGE AROUND KLYH AT THIS POINT IF AT ALL.

ANY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD FADE BY MID MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF DEVELOPING 4-6K FT CU FIELDS UNDERNEATH A CI CANOPY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF BKN CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SW EARLY ON WITH THIS SPREADING NE TO KBLF/KBCB AND KROA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT COVERAGE LACKING AND LIKELY NOT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATER THURSDAY SO LEAVING OUT SHOWER MENTION
FOR NOW. OTRW VFR WITH WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPULSE ROUNDING IN FROM THE SW SUPPORTS INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BASES LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS. THIS MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH IFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPCLY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW ALOFT...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW AND TAKES
MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR- LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310512
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
112 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT OVERALL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE WV EARLY. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SPRINKLE/SHOWERS OUT
EAST AS THETA-E RIDGE AND SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OCCURS.

SKIES FOR MOST OF US WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARE A LITTLE THICKER TOWARD THE NC MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST LOWS STILL OVERALL LOOKING ONLINE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
DEEPER VALLEYS TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS SHOULD ALSO FORM GIVEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
GROWING IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SW THROUGH DAYBREAK ALONG WITH PASSING MID DECK ACROSS
THE NW. THIS MAY TEND TO MITIGATE FOG TO SOME EXTENT BUT STILL
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR AT KLWB BEFORE DAWN...AND MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR AT KBCB PENDING DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. SOME SPOTTY OCNL
MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AT KLYH/KDAN AROUND SUNRISE WITH
MORE COVERAGE AROUND KLYH AT THIS POINT IF AT ALL.

ANY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD FADE BY MID MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF DEVELOPING 4-6K FT CU FIELDS UNDERNEATH A CI CANOPY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF BKN CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SW EARLY ON WITH THIS SPREADING NE TO KBLF/KBCB AND KROA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT COVERAGE LACKING AND LIKELY NOT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATER THURSDAY SO LEAVING OUT SHOWER MENTION
FOR NOW. OTRW VFR WITH WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPULSE ROUNDING IN FROM THE SW SUPPORTS INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BASES LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS. THIS MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH IFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPCLY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW ALOFT...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW AND TAKES
MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR- LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT OVERALL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE WV EARLY. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SPRINKLE/SHOWERS OUT
EAST AS THETA-E RIDGE AND SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OCCURS.

SKIES FOR MOST OF US WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARE A LITTLE THICKER TOWARD THE NC MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST LOWS STILL OVERALL LOOKING ONLINE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
DEEPER VALLEYS TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS SHOULD ALSO FORM GIVEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
GROWING IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL FOR BR HZ DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE USUAL SPOTS...BUT ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. A DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN WV NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA WILL DISSIPATE PER ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CI SHIELD MAY AFFECT LWB FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCT AC/SC WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AT LWB/BCB AND
POTENTIALLY DAN/LYH...WITH LWB LIKELY SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT ROA
OR BLF AT THIS TIME. FOR THU...LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN
THE 040-060 RANGE...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN CU/SC/AC
DURING THE MID DAY/AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY...CI SHIELD WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS
IT APPEARS TO REACH NO FURTHER THAN NW NC LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS...MOSTLY SW THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
BCB/LYH/DAN/LWB WILL LIKELY SEE CALM WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SPEEDS THU REMAINING MOSTLY 5KTS OR LESS EVEN AFT 14Z.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLD AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
IFR-LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE
USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT OVERALL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE WV EARLY. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SPRINKLE/SHOWERS OUT
EAST AS THETA-E RIDGE AND SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OCCURS.

SKIES FOR MOST OF US WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARE A LITTLE THICKER TOWARD THE NC MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST LOWS STILL OVERALL LOOKING ONLINE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
DEEPER VALLEYS TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS SHOULD ALSO FORM GIVEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
GROWING IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL FOR BR HZ DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE USUAL SPOTS...BUT ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. A DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN WV NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA WILL DISSIPATE PER ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CI SHIELD MAY AFFECT LWB FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCT AC/SC WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AT LWB/BCB AND
POTENTIALLY DAN/LYH...WITH LWB LIKELY SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT ROA
OR BLF AT THIS TIME. FOR THU...LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN
THE 040-060 RANGE...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN CU/SC/AC
DURING THE MID DAY/AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY...CI SHIELD WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS
IT APPEARS TO REACH NO FURTHER THAN NW NC LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS...MOSTLY SW THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
BCB/LYH/DAN/LWB WILL LIKELY SEE CALM WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SPEEDS THU REMAINING MOSTLY 5KTS OR LESS EVEN AFT 14Z.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLD AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
IFR-LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE
USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT OVERALL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE WV EARLY. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SPRINKLE/SHOWERS OUT
EAST AS THETA-E RIDGE AND SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OCCURS.

SKIES FOR MOST OF US WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARE A LITTLE THICKER TOWARD THE NC MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST LOWS STILL OVERALL LOOKING ONLINE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
DEEPER VALLEYS TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS SHOULD ALSO FORM GIVEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
GROWING IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL FOR BR HZ DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE USUAL SPOTS...BUT ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. A DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN WV NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA WILL DISSIPATE PER ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CI SHIELD MAY AFFECT LWB FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCT AC/SC WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AT LWB/BCB AND
POTENTIALLY DAN/LYH...WITH LWB LIKELY SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT ROA
OR BLF AT THIS TIME. FOR THU...LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN
THE 040-060 RANGE...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN CU/SC/AC
DURING THE MID DAY/AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY...CI SHIELD WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS
IT APPEARS TO REACH NO FURTHER THAN NW NC LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS...MOSTLY SW THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
BCB/LYH/DAN/LWB WILL LIKELY SEE CALM WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SPEEDS THU REMAINING MOSTLY 5KTS OR LESS EVEN AFT 14Z.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLD AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
IFR-LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE
USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT OVERALL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE WV EARLY. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SPRINKLE/SHOWERS OUT
EAST AS THETA-E RIDGE AND SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OCCURS.

SKIES FOR MOST OF US WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARE A LITTLE THICKER TOWARD THE NC MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST LOWS STILL OVERALL LOOKING ONLINE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
DEEPER VALLEYS TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS SHOULD ALSO FORM GIVEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
GROWING IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL FOR BR HZ DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE USUAL SPOTS...BUT ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. A DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN WV NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA WILL DISSIPATE PER ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CI SHIELD MAY AFFECT LWB FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCT AC/SC WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AT LWB/BCB AND
POTENTIALLY DAN/LYH...WITH LWB LIKELY SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT ROA
OR BLF AT THIS TIME. FOR THU...LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN
THE 040-060 RANGE...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN CU/SC/AC
DURING THE MID DAY/AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY...CI SHIELD WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS
IT APPEARS TO REACH NO FURTHER THAN NW NC LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS...MOSTLY SW THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
BCB/LYH/DAN/LWB WILL LIKELY SEE CALM WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SPEEDS THU REMAINING MOSTLY 5KTS OR LESS EVEN AFT 14Z.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLD AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
IFR-LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE
USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310039
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
839 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VERY LITTLE CONVECTION LEFT TO OUR SE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATING IN WV. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
INTO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND GREENBRIER
VALLEY...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STAYS DRY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SAT TRENDS AND MODEL
SOLUTIONS. SHOULD BE MCLR-PC WITH MOPRE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN
TIER AND NRN TIER OF THE CWA.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION
TOWARDS AND THEN INTO THE AREA. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME BANKED AGAINST THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER AS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING.
READINGS AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A
FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. OF OUR SIX CLIMATE
SITES...LEWISBURG HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW
TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND GROWING
IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL FOR BR HZ DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE USUAL SPOTS...BUT ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. A DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN WV NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA WILL DISSIPATE PER ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CI SHIELD MAY AFFECT LWB FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCT AC/SC WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AT LWB/BCB AND
POTENTIALLY DAN/LYH...WITH LWB LIKELY SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT ROA
OR BLF AT THIS TIME. FOR THU...LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN
THE 040-060 RANGE...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN CU/SC/AC
DURING THE MID DAY/AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY...CI SHIELD WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS
IT APPEARS TO REACH NO FURTHER THAN NW NC LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS...MOSTLY SW THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
BCB/LYH/DAN/LWB WILL LIKELY SEE CALM WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SPEEDS THU REMAINING MOSTLY 5KTS OR LESS EVEN AFT 14Z.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLD AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
IFR-LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE
USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310039
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
839 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VERY LITTLE CONVECTION LEFT TO OUR SE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATING IN WV. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
INTO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND GREENBRIER
VALLEY...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STAYS DRY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SAT TRENDS AND MODEL
SOLUTIONS. SHOULD BE MCLR-PC WITH MOPRE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN
TIER AND NRN TIER OF THE CWA.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION
TOWARDS AND THEN INTO THE AREA. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME BANKED AGAINST THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER AS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING.
READINGS AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A
FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. OF OUR SIX CLIMATE
SITES...LEWISBURG HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW
TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND GROWING
IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL FOR BR HZ DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE USUAL SPOTS...BUT ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. A DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN WV NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA WILL DISSIPATE PER ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CI SHIELD MAY AFFECT LWB FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCT AC/SC WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AT LWB/BCB AND
POTENTIALLY DAN/LYH...WITH LWB LIKELY SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT ROA
OR BLF AT THIS TIME. FOR THU...LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN
THE 040-060 RANGE...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN CU/SC/AC
DURING THE MID DAY/AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY...CI SHIELD WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS
IT APPEARS TO REACH NO FURTHER THAN NW NC LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS...MOSTLY SW THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
BCB/LYH/DAN/LWB WILL LIKELY SEE CALM WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SPEEDS THU REMAINING MOSTLY 5KTS OR LESS EVEN AFT 14Z.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLD AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
IFR-LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE
USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302358
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
758 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTION
HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ONE WILL BE CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE
EXTEND FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
AREAS AROUND...EAST AND SOUTH OF DANVILLE VA THROUGH ROUGHLY 800
PM. THE OTHER AREA WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INSTABILITY
THAT HAS DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF
LEWISBURG WV MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER BETWEEN NOW AND ROUGHLY 500
PM...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE APPROACH 700 PM. A DISTURBANCE
WITH AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
OHIO...AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARD THE EARLY
EVENING. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK WRF-ARW OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT BRING
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR DOORSTEP AND THEN HAVE IT DISSIPATE. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING IN AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN WV AND VA.
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG IN THIS AREA...CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS SITUATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY. EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE HAS
HELPED ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S BACK TOWARD THE
AREA AS CLOSE AS ROXBORO NC AND SOUTH HILL VA. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS PROGGED TO START SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE REGION. IN TURN...HIGHER DEW POINT
AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION TOWARDS AND THEN INTO
THE AREA. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME
BANKED AGAINST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER AS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING. READINGS AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60.
OF OUR SIX CLIMATE SITES...LEWISBURG HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING
CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND GROWING
IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL FOR BR HZ DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE USUAL SPOTS...BUT ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. A DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN WV NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA WILL DISSIPATE PER ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CI SHIELD MAY AFFECT LWB FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCT AC/SC WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AT LWB/BCB AND
POTENTIALLY DAN/LYH...WITH LWB LIKELY SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT ROA
OR BLF AT THIS TIME. FOR THU...LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN
THE 040-060 RANGE...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN CU/SC/AC
DURING THE MID DAY/AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY...CI SHIELD WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS
IT APPEARS TO REACH NO FURTHER THAN NW NC LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS...MOSTLY SW THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
BCB/LYH/DAN/LWB WILL LIKELY SEE CALM WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SPEEDS THU REMAINING MOSTLY 5KTS OR LESS EVEN AFT 14Z.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLD AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
IFR-LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE
USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 302358
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
758 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTION
HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ONE WILL BE CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE
EXTEND FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
AREAS AROUND...EAST AND SOUTH OF DANVILLE VA THROUGH ROUGHLY 800
PM. THE OTHER AREA WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INSTABILITY
THAT HAS DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF
LEWISBURG WV MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER BETWEEN NOW AND ROUGHLY 500
PM...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE APPROACH 700 PM. A DISTURBANCE
WITH AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
OHIO...AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARD THE EARLY
EVENING. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK WRF-ARW OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT BRING
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR DOORSTEP AND THEN HAVE IT DISSIPATE. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING IN AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN WV AND VA.
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG IN THIS AREA...CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS SITUATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY. EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE HAS
HELPED ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S BACK TOWARD THE
AREA AS CLOSE AS ROXBORO NC AND SOUTH HILL VA. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS PROGGED TO START SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE REGION. IN TURN...HIGHER DEW POINT
AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION TOWARDS AND THEN INTO
THE AREA. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME
BANKED AGAINST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER AS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING. READINGS AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60.
OF OUR SIX CLIMATE SITES...LEWISBURG HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING
CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND GROWING
IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL FOR BR HZ DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE USUAL SPOTS...BUT ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. A DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN WV NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA WILL DISSIPATE PER ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CI SHIELD MAY AFFECT LWB FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCT AC/SC WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AT LWB/BCB AND
POTENTIALLY DAN/LYH...WITH LWB LIKELY SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT ROA
OR BLF AT THIS TIME. FOR THU...LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN
THE 040-060 RANGE...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN CU/SC/AC
DURING THE MID DAY/AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY...CI SHIELD WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS
IT APPEARS TO REACH NO FURTHER THAN NW NC LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS...MOSTLY SW THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
BCB/LYH/DAN/LWB WILL LIKELY SEE CALM WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SPEEDS THU REMAINING MOSTLY 5KTS OR LESS EVEN AFT 14Z.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLD AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
IFR-LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE
USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301941
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTION HEADING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ONE WILL BE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AREAS
AROUND...EAST AND SOUTH OF DANVILLE VA THROUGH ROUGHLY 800 PM. THE
OTHER AREA WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INSTABILITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST WES VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF LEWISBURG WV MAY SEE A
STRAY SHOWER BETWEEN NOW AND ROUGHLY 500 PM...CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH 700 PM. A DISTURBANCE WITH AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE
RATE AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OHIO...AND SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK
WRF-ARW OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT BRING THE ACTIVITY TO OUR DOORSTEP AND
THEN HAVE IT DISSIPATE. HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 IN WV AND VA. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG IN THIS
AREA...CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS AREA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS
TO FORM. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS SITUATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY. EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE HAS
HELPED ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S BACK TOWARD THE
AREA AS CLOSE AS ROXBORO NC AND SOUTH HILL VA. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS PROGGED TO START SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE REGION. IN TURN...HIGHER DEW POINT
AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION TOWARDS AND THEN INTO
THE AREA. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME
BANKED AGAINST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER AS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING. READINGS AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60.
OF OUR SIX CLIMATE SITES...LEWISBURG HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING
CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND GROWING
IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE VFR YIELDING TO MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WEATHER THIS TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND COMBINES
WITH INSTABILITY IN THE COLD POOL OF AIR TO PRODUCE A GOOD CU FIELD
AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD.
BELIEVE THE CU WILL BE A VFR SCT V BKN TYPE SITUATION. WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP SCT EXCEPT FOR KBLF/KLWB WHERE BKN WILL BE
MORE LIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WILL ALSO KEEP
TAFS DRY SINCE EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB BUT IF CU/SC CLOUD DECK LINGERS IT MAY DELAY ONSET
AND ULTIMATELY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS. WILL CHOOSE TO GO WITH
QUICKER CU/SC DISSIPATION THIS EVE/TONIGHT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF
BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS LOOK TO BE BEYOND THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/MBS
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301941
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTION HEADING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ONE WILL BE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AREAS
AROUND...EAST AND SOUTH OF DANVILLE VA THROUGH ROUGHLY 800 PM. THE
OTHER AREA WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INSTABILITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST WES VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF LEWISBURG WV MAY SEE A
STRAY SHOWER BETWEEN NOW AND ROUGHLY 500 PM...CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH 700 PM. A DISTURBANCE WITH AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE
RATE AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OHIO...AND SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK
WRF-ARW OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT BRING THE ACTIVITY TO OUR DOORSTEP AND
THEN HAVE IT DISSIPATE. HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 IN WV AND VA. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG IN THIS
AREA...CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS AREA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS
TO FORM. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS SITUATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY. EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE HAS
HELPED ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S BACK TOWARD THE
AREA AS CLOSE AS ROXBORO NC AND SOUTH HILL VA. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS PROGGED TO START SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE REGION. IN TURN...HIGHER DEW POINT
AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION TOWARDS AND THEN INTO
THE AREA. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME
BANKED AGAINST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER AS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING. READINGS AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60.
OF OUR SIX CLIMATE SITES...LEWISBURG HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING
CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND GROWING
IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE VFR YIELDING TO MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WEATHER THIS TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND COMBINES
WITH INSTABILITY IN THE COLD POOL OF AIR TO PRODUCE A GOOD CU FIELD
AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD.
BELIEVE THE CU WILL BE A VFR SCT V BKN TYPE SITUATION. WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP SCT EXCEPT FOR KBLF/KLWB WHERE BKN WILL BE
MORE LIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WILL ALSO KEEP
TAFS DRY SINCE EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB BUT IF CU/SC CLOUD DECK LINGERS IT MAY DELAY ONSET
AND ULTIMATELY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS. WILL CHOOSE TO GO WITH
QUICKER CU/SC DISSIPATION THIS EVE/TONIGHT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF
BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS LOOK TO BE BEYOND THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/MBS
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301703
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
103 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VIA LAPS DATA...WEAK INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...WITHIN THE REGION WHERE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WAS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
REGION ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY WAS
JUST WEST OF THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA. BOTH THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND RNK WRF-
ARW MODELS SHOW THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GAINING
INCREASED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION. THERE
ALSO...ALTHOUGH NOT AS ROBUST ALONG THE FAR NW AND SE PARTS OF THE
REGION...SOME WEAK INDICATION THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARDS TWO OR THREE DEGREES THE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST HAD
BEEN RUNNING A BIT WARM COMPARED TO REALITY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
DEW POINTS A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA BASED UPON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE STILL
INDICATING POCKETS OF LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WAS IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A QUICK DISSIPATION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SO THAT LITTLE IF ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BY
1100 AM. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND POTENTIALLY SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A
MORE ROBUST AREA OF CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW UNDER THE 5H TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING ADDED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING SHRA OVER THE
FAR SE SHOULD FINALLY EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND AREAS
OF MID/LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST UNDER A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO FADE TO AN
INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
RAOBS SHOWING A LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 7H-85H. HOWEVER
APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO KEEP ANY SHRA TO MINIMUM
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A MID LEVEL WAVE UNDER THE COLD
POCKET TO THE NW APPROACHES. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA NORTH-NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN MEAGER WITH ANY PRECIP AS BASICALLY ONLY
THE NAM SHOWS MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LAPSES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
AND GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW UNDER HEATING APPEARS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
20-30 POP GREENBRIER/HIGHLANDS DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ISOLATED TSRA MENTION MAINLY NORTH. OTRW WILL CALL IT MAINLY PC
FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS ESPCLY EARLY...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S SE PENDING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SWINGING UNDER THE BASE OF THE 5H COLD POOL
WILL JET EAST CROSSING THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WEAKNESS AND EARLY EVENING CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW TO DEVELOP SHRA SE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. THUS EXTENDED SLIGHT
POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTRW
PASSING OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW MORE CLEARING MOUNTAINS
WHILE MID DECK MAY AGAIN LINGER PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS SEEN VIA
MOST MODEL RH SOLUTIONS ATTM. WILL AGAIN BE QUITE A COOL NIGHT
ESPCLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DONT RISE TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER BUT MAY HARD PRESSED TO REACH RECORDS AS EXPECT A
BIT MORE VALLEY FOG LATE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO
KEEP READINGS ABOVE RECORDS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE AT
LEAST A DAY...AND EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT RISES AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES...EXPECT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO START THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORCING THE MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO BETTER THAN 1.5
INCHES...BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. RAINFALL
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO GO AWAY COMPLETELY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE
AS THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS SITUATED IN A PATTERN OF DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CARRYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE VFR YIELDING TO MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WEATHER THIS TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND COMBINES
WITH INSTABILITY IN THE COLD POOL OF AIR TO PRODUCE A GOOD CU FIELD
AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD.
BELIEVE THE CU WILL BE A VFR SCT V BKN TYPE SITUATION. WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP SCT EXCEPT FOR KBLF/KLWB WHERE BKN WILL BE
MORE LIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WILL ALSO KEEP
TAFS DRY SINCE EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB BUT IF CU/SC CLOUD DECK LINGERS IT MAY DELAY ONSET
AND ULTIMATELY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS. WILL CHOOSE TO GO WITH
QUICKER CU/SC DISSIPATION THIS EVE/TONIGHT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF
BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS LOOK TO BE BEYOND THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/MBS
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301703
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
103 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VIA LAPS DATA...WEAK INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...WITHIN THE REGION WHERE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WAS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
REGION ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY WAS
JUST WEST OF THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA. BOTH THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND RNK WRF-
ARW MODELS SHOW THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GAINING
INCREASED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION. THERE
ALSO...ALTHOUGH NOT AS ROBUST ALONG THE FAR NW AND SE PARTS OF THE
REGION...SOME WEAK INDICATION THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARDS TWO OR THREE DEGREES THE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST HAD
BEEN RUNNING A BIT WARM COMPARED TO REALITY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
DEW POINTS A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA BASED UPON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE STILL
INDICATING POCKETS OF LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WAS IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A QUICK DISSIPATION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SO THAT LITTLE IF ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BY
1100 AM. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND POTENTIALLY SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A
MORE ROBUST AREA OF CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW UNDER THE 5H TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING ADDED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING SHRA OVER THE
FAR SE SHOULD FINALLY EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND AREAS
OF MID/LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST UNDER A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO FADE TO AN
INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
RAOBS SHOWING A LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 7H-85H. HOWEVER
APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO KEEP ANY SHRA TO MINIMUM
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A MID LEVEL WAVE UNDER THE COLD
POCKET TO THE NW APPROACHES. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA NORTH-NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN MEAGER WITH ANY PRECIP AS BASICALLY ONLY
THE NAM SHOWS MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LAPSES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
AND GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW UNDER HEATING APPEARS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
20-30 POP GREENBRIER/HIGHLANDS DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ISOLATED TSRA MENTION MAINLY NORTH. OTRW WILL CALL IT MAINLY PC
FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS ESPCLY EARLY...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S SE PENDING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SWINGING UNDER THE BASE OF THE 5H COLD POOL
WILL JET EAST CROSSING THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WEAKNESS AND EARLY EVENING CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW TO DEVELOP SHRA SE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. THUS EXTENDED SLIGHT
POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTRW
PASSING OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW MORE CLEARING MOUNTAINS
WHILE MID DECK MAY AGAIN LINGER PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS SEEN VIA
MOST MODEL RH SOLUTIONS ATTM. WILL AGAIN BE QUITE A COOL NIGHT
ESPCLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DONT RISE TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER BUT MAY HARD PRESSED TO REACH RECORDS AS EXPECT A
BIT MORE VALLEY FOG LATE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO
KEEP READINGS ABOVE RECORDS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE AT
LEAST A DAY...AND EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT RISES AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES...EXPECT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO START THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORCING THE MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO BETTER THAN 1.5
INCHES...BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. RAINFALL
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO GO AWAY COMPLETELY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE
AS THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS SITUATED IN A PATTERN OF DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CARRYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE VFR YIELDING TO MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WEATHER THIS TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND COMBINES
WITH INSTABILITY IN THE COLD POOL OF AIR TO PRODUCE A GOOD CU FIELD
AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD.
BELIEVE THE CU WILL BE A VFR SCT V BKN TYPE SITUATION. WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP SCT EXCEPT FOR KBLF/KLWB WHERE BKN WILL BE
MORE LIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WILL ALSO KEEP
TAFS DRY SINCE EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB BUT IF CU/SC CLOUD DECK LINGERS IT MAY DELAY ONSET
AND ULTIMATELY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS. WILL CHOOSE TO GO WITH
QUICKER CU/SC DISSIPATION THIS EVE/TONIGHT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF
BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS LOOK TO BE BEYOND THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/MBS
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301358
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE STILL
INDICATING POCKETS OF LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WAS IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A QUICK DISSIPATION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SO THAT LITTLE IF ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BY
1100 AM. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND POTENTIALLY SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A
MORE ROBUST AREA OF CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW UNDER THE 5H TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING ADDED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING SHRA OVER THE
FAR SE SHOULD FINALLY EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND AREAS
OF MID/LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST UNDER A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO FADE TO AN
INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
RAOBS SHOWING A LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 7H-85H. HOWEVER
APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO KEEP ANY SHRA TO MINIMUM
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A MID LEVEL WAVE UNDER THE COLD
POCKET TO THE NW APPROACHES. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA NORTH-NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN MEAGER WITH ANY PRECIP AS BASICALLY ONLY
THE NAM SHOWS MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LAPSES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
AND GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW UNDER HEATING APPEARS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
20-30 POP GREENBRIER/HIGHLANDS DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ISOLATED TSRA MENTION MAINLY NORTH. OTRW WILL CALL IT MAINLY PC
FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS ESPCLY EARLY...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S SE PENDING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER IMPUSLE ALOFT SWINGING UNDER THE BASE OF THE 5H COLD POOL
WILL JET EAST CROSSING THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WEAKNESS AND EARLY EVENING CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW TO DEVELOP SHRA SE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. THUS EXTENDED SLIGHT
POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTRW
PASSING OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW MORE CLEARING MOUNTAINS
WHILE MID DECK MAY AGAIN LINGER PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS SEEN VIA
MOST MODEL RH SOLUTIONS ATTM. WILL AGAIN BE QUITE A COOL NIGHT
ESPCLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DONT RISE TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER BUT MAY HARD PRESSED TO REACH RECORDS AS EXPECT A
BIT MORE VALLEY FOG LATE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO
KEEP READINGS ABOVE RECORDS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE AT
LEAST A DAY...AND EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT RISES AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES...EXPECT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO START THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORCING THE MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO BETTER THAN 1.5
INCHES...BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. RAINFALL
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO GO AWAY COMPLETELY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE
AS THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS SITUATED IN A PATTERN OF DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CARRYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL KEEP BRIEF IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS GOING UNTIL AROUND 13Z/9AM AT KLWB/KBCB BEFORE
THE FOG QUICKLY ERODES AND VFR RETURNS. OTRW EXPECTING ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ELSW TO STAY AT VFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUT BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CU EARLY DEVELOPING INTO BKN
4-6K FT CLOUD BASES MOST SPOTS WITH HEATING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST THIRD GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE NW BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION. ALSO MAY SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH LATE EVENING AS ANOTHER IMPULSE PASSES SOUTH. OTRW
KEEPING IT VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT WITH ANY CIGS LIKELY TO FADE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING BUT PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SPOTS.

SHOULD SEE MORE MVFR TO IFR IN FOG ACROSS THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS BOTH KLYH/KDAN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE LATE. APPEARS
KLWB COULD AGAIN DROP TO LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR FAST
ENOUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB- VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301358
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE STILL
INDICATING POCKETS OF LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WAS IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A QUICK DISSIPATION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SO THAT LITTLE IF ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BY
1100 AM. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND POTENTIALLY SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A
MORE ROBUST AREA OF CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW UNDER THE 5H TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING ADDED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING SHRA OVER THE
FAR SE SHOULD FINALLY EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND AREAS
OF MID/LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST UNDER A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO FADE TO AN
INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
RAOBS SHOWING A LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 7H-85H. HOWEVER
APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO KEEP ANY SHRA TO MINIMUM
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A MID LEVEL WAVE UNDER THE COLD
POCKET TO THE NW APPROACHES. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA NORTH-NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN MEAGER WITH ANY PRECIP AS BASICALLY ONLY
THE NAM SHOWS MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LAPSES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
AND GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW UNDER HEATING APPEARS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
20-30 POP GREENBRIER/HIGHLANDS DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ISOLATED TSRA MENTION MAINLY NORTH. OTRW WILL CALL IT MAINLY PC
FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS ESPCLY EARLY...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S SE PENDING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER IMPUSLE ALOFT SWINGING UNDER THE BASE OF THE 5H COLD POOL
WILL JET EAST CROSSING THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WEAKNESS AND EARLY EVENING CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW TO DEVELOP SHRA SE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. THUS EXTENDED SLIGHT
POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTRW
PASSING OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW MORE CLEARING MOUNTAINS
WHILE MID DECK MAY AGAIN LINGER PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS SEEN VIA
MOST MODEL RH SOLUTIONS ATTM. WILL AGAIN BE QUITE A COOL NIGHT
ESPCLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DONT RISE TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER BUT MAY HARD PRESSED TO REACH RECORDS AS EXPECT A
BIT MORE VALLEY FOG LATE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO
KEEP READINGS ABOVE RECORDS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE AT
LEAST A DAY...AND EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT RISES AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES...EXPECT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO START THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORCING THE MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO BETTER THAN 1.5
INCHES...BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. RAINFALL
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO GO AWAY COMPLETELY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE
AS THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS SITUATED IN A PATTERN OF DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CARRYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL KEEP BRIEF IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS GOING UNTIL AROUND 13Z/9AM AT KLWB/KBCB BEFORE
THE FOG QUICKLY ERODES AND VFR RETURNS. OTRW EXPECTING ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ELSW TO STAY AT VFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUT BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CU EARLY DEVELOPING INTO BKN
4-6K FT CLOUD BASES MOST SPOTS WITH HEATING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST THIRD GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE NW BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION. ALSO MAY SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH LATE EVENING AS ANOTHER IMPULSE PASSES SOUTH. OTRW
KEEPING IT VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT WITH ANY CIGS LIKELY TO FADE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING BUT PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SPOTS.

SHOULD SEE MORE MVFR TO IFR IN FOG ACROSS THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS BOTH KLYH/KDAN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE LATE. APPEARS
KLWB COULD AGAIN DROP TO LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR FAST
ENOUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB- VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301125
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW UNDER THE 5H TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING ADDED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING SHRA OVER THE
FAR SE SHOULD FINALLY EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND AREAS
OF MID/LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST UNDER A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO FADE TO AN
INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
RAOBS SHOWING A LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 7H-85H. HOWEVER
APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO KEEP ANY SHRA TO MINIMUM
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A MID LEVEL WAVE UNDER THE COLD
POCKET TO THE NW APPROACHES. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA NORTH-NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN MEAGER WITH ANY PRECIP AS BASICALLY ONLY
THE NAM SHOWS MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LAPSES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
AND GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW UNDER HEATING APPEARS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
20-30 POP GREENBRIER/HIGHLANDS DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ISOLATED TSRA MENTION MAINLY NORTH. OTRW WILL CALL IT MAINLY PC
FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS ESPCLY EARLY...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S SE PENDING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER IMPUSLE ALOFT SWINGING UNDER THE BASE OF THE 5H COLD POOL
WILL JET EAST CROSSING THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WEAKNESS AND EARLY EVENING CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW TO DEVELOP SHRA SE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. THUS EXTENDED SLIGHT
POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTRW
PASSING OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW MORE CLEARING MOUNTAINS
WHILE MID DECK MAY AGAIN LINGER PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS SEEN VIA
MOST MODEL RH SOLUTIONS ATTM. WILL AGAIN BE QUITE A COOL NIGHT
ESPCLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DONT RISE TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER BUT MAY HARD PRESSED TO REACH RECORDS AS EXPECT A
BIT MORE VALLEY FOG LATE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO
KEEP READINGS ABOVE RECORDS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE AT
LEAST A DAY...AND EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT RISES AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES...EXPECT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO START THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORCING THE MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO BETTER THAN 1.5
INCHES...BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. RAINFALL
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO GO AWAY COMPLETELY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE
AS THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS SITUATED IN A PATTERN OF DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CARRYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL KEEP BRIEF IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS GOING UNTIL AROUND 13Z/9AM AT KLWB/KBCB BEFORE
THE FOG QUICKLY ERODES AND VFR RETURNS. OTRW EXPECTING ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ELSW TO STAY AT VFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUT BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CU EARLY DEVELOPING INTO BKN
4-6K FT CLOUD BASES MOST SPOTS WITH HEATING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST THIRD GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE NW BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION. ALSO MAY SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH LATE EVENING AS ANOTHER IMPULSE PASSES SOUTH. OTRW
KEEPING IT VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT WITH ANY CIGS LIKELY TO FADE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING BUT PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SPOTS.

SHOULD SEE MORE MVFR TO IFR IN FOG ACROSS THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS BOTH KLYH/KDAN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE LATE. APPEARS
KLWB COULD AGAIN DROP TO LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR FAST
ENOUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB- VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301125
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW UNDER THE 5H TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING ADDED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING SHRA OVER THE
FAR SE SHOULD FINALLY EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND AREAS
OF MID/LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST UNDER A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO FADE TO AN
INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
RAOBS SHOWING A LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 7H-85H. HOWEVER
APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO KEEP ANY SHRA TO MINIMUM
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A MID LEVEL WAVE UNDER THE COLD
POCKET TO THE NW APPROACHES. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA NORTH-NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN MEAGER WITH ANY PRECIP AS BASICALLY ONLY
THE NAM SHOWS MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LAPSES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
AND GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW UNDER HEATING APPEARS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
20-30 POP GREENBRIER/HIGHLANDS DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ISOLATED TSRA MENTION MAINLY NORTH. OTRW WILL CALL IT MAINLY PC
FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS ESPCLY EARLY...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S SE PENDING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER IMPUSLE ALOFT SWINGING UNDER THE BASE OF THE 5H COLD POOL
WILL JET EAST CROSSING THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WEAKNESS AND EARLY EVENING CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW TO DEVELOP SHRA SE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. THUS EXTENDED SLIGHT
POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTRW
PASSING OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW MORE CLEARING MOUNTAINS
WHILE MID DECK MAY AGAIN LINGER PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS SEEN VIA
MOST MODEL RH SOLUTIONS ATTM. WILL AGAIN BE QUITE A COOL NIGHT
ESPCLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DONT RISE TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER BUT MAY HARD PRESSED TO REACH RECORDS AS EXPECT A
BIT MORE VALLEY FOG LATE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO
KEEP READINGS ABOVE RECORDS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE AT
LEAST A DAY...AND EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT RISES AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES...EXPECT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO START THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORCING THE MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO BETTER THAN 1.5
INCHES...BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. RAINFALL
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO GO AWAY COMPLETELY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE
AS THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS SITUATED IN A PATTERN OF DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CARRYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL KEEP BRIEF IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS GOING UNTIL AROUND 13Z/9AM AT KLWB/KBCB BEFORE
THE FOG QUICKLY ERODES AND VFR RETURNS. OTRW EXPECTING ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ELSW TO STAY AT VFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUT BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CU EARLY DEVELOPING INTO BKN
4-6K FT CLOUD BASES MOST SPOTS WITH HEATING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST THIRD GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE NW BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION. ALSO MAY SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH LATE EVENING AS ANOTHER IMPULSE PASSES SOUTH. OTRW
KEEPING IT VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT WITH ANY CIGS LIKELY TO FADE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING BUT PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SPOTS.

SHOULD SEE MORE MVFR TO IFR IN FOG ACROSS THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS BOTH KLYH/KDAN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE LATE. APPEARS
KLWB COULD AGAIN DROP TO LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR FAST
ENOUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB- VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300809
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW UNDER THE 5H TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING ADDED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING SHRA OVER THE
FAR SE SHOULD FINALLY EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND AREAS
OF MID/LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST UNDER A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO FADE TO AN
INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
RAOBS SHOWING A LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 7H-85H. HOWEVER
APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO KEEP ANY SHRA TO MINIMUM
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A MID LEVEL WAVE UNDER THE COLD
POCKET TO THE NW APPROACHES. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA NORTH-NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN MEAGER WITH ANY PRECIP AS BASICALLY ONLY
THE NAM SHOWS MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LAPSES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
AND GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW UNDER HEATING APPEARS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
20-30 POP GREENBRIER/HIGHLANDS DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ISOLATED TSRA MENTION MAINLY NORTH. OTRW WILL CALL IT MAINLY PC
FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS ESPCLY EARLY...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S SE PENDING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER IMPUSLE ALOFT SWINGING UNDER THE BASE OF THE 5H COLD POOL
WILL JET EAST CROSSING THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WEAKNESS AND EARLY EVENING CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW TO DEVELOP SHRA SE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. THUS EXTENDED SLIGHT
POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTRW
PASSING OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW MORE CLEARING MOUNTAINS
WHILE MID DECK MAY AGAIN LINGER PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS SEEN VIA
MOST MODEL RH SOLUTIONS ATTM. WILL AGAIN BE QUITE A COOL NIGHT
ESPCLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DONT RISE TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER BUT MAY HARD PRESSED TO REACH RECORDS AS EXPECT A
BIT MORE VALLEY FOG LATE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO
KEEP READINGS ABOVE RECORDS FOR NOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE AT
LEAST A DAY...AND EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT RISES AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES...EXPECT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO START THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORCING THE MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO BETTER THAN 1.5
INCHES...BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. RAINFALL
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO GO AWAY COMPLETELY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE
AS THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS SITUATED IN A PATTERN OF DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CARRYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS JUST SOUTH/SE OF KDAN SHOULD FINALLY EXIT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO LEAVING MAINLY VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE WEST. COULD SEE KDAN DROP DOWN TO
HIGH END MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE OTRW KEEPING CIGS
MAINLY IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE FROM KROA EAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK WAVE
ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY KICK
OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE CLEARING ESPCLY WEST BY DAWN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY FOG GIVEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT KLWB/KBCB AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SEEING IFR AT KLWB. HOWEVER LOWER CIGS AT KBLF AND KLWB LOOK
LESS LIKELY NOW WITH ANY LOW CIGS LIKELY DUE TO FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION LATE.

UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUT BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED CU/AC EARLY INCREASING TO BKN 4-6K
FT CLOUD BASES MOST SPOTS WITH HEATING. AN ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY WESTERN THIRD GIVEN THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE
FROM THE NW BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION. OTRW KEEPING IT
VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CIGS LIKELY TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY...THEN
INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME
BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB- VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300809
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW UNDER THE 5H TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING ADDED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING SHRA OVER THE
FAR SE SHOULD FINALLY EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND AREAS
OF MID/LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST UNDER A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO FADE TO AN
INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
RAOBS SHOWING A LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 7H-85H. HOWEVER
APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO KEEP ANY SHRA TO MINIMUM
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A MID LEVEL WAVE UNDER THE COLD
POCKET TO THE NW APPROACHES. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA NORTH-NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN MEAGER WITH ANY PRECIP AS BASICALLY ONLY
THE NAM SHOWS MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LAPSES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
AND GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW UNDER HEATING APPEARS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
20-30 POP GREENBRIER/HIGHLANDS DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ISOLATED TSRA MENTION MAINLY NORTH. OTRW WILL CALL IT MAINLY PC
FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS ESPCLY EARLY...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S SE PENDING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER IMPUSLE ALOFT SWINGING UNDER THE BASE OF THE 5H COLD POOL
WILL JET EAST CROSSING THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WEAKNESS AND EARLY EVENING CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW TO DEVELOP SHRA SE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. THUS EXTENDED SLIGHT
POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTRW
PASSING OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW MORE CLEARING MOUNTAINS
WHILE MID DECK MAY AGAIN LINGER PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS SEEN VIA
MOST MODEL RH SOLUTIONS ATTM. WILL AGAIN BE QUITE A COOL NIGHT
ESPCLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DONT RISE TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER BUT MAY HARD PRESSED TO REACH RECORDS AS EXPECT A
BIT MORE VALLEY FOG LATE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO
KEEP READINGS ABOVE RECORDS FOR NOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE AT
LEAST A DAY...AND EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT RISES AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES...EXPECT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO START THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORCING THE MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO BETTER THAN 1.5
INCHES...BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. RAINFALL
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO GO AWAY COMPLETELY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE
AS THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS SITUATED IN A PATTERN OF DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CARRYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS JUST SOUTH/SE OF KDAN SHOULD FINALLY EXIT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO LEAVING MAINLY VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE WEST. COULD SEE KDAN DROP DOWN TO
HIGH END MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE OTRW KEEPING CIGS
MAINLY IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE FROM KROA EAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK WAVE
ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY KICK
OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE CLEARING ESPCLY WEST BY DAWN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY FOG GIVEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT KLWB/KBCB AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SEEING IFR AT KLWB. HOWEVER LOWER CIGS AT KBLF AND KLWB LOOK
LESS LIKELY NOW WITH ANY LOW CIGS LIKELY DUE TO FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION LATE.

UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUT BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED CU/AC EARLY INCREASING TO BKN 4-6K
FT CLOUD BASES MOST SPOTS WITH HEATING. AN ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY WESTERN THIRD GIVEN THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE
FROM THE NW BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION. OTRW KEEPING IT
VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CIGS LIKELY TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY...THEN
INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME
BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB- VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300516
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
116 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A DRY...COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ENOUGH LOW LVL THETA-E INTO THE SOUTHERN VA PIEDMONT AS WELL AS
9.0C/KM LOW LVL LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS EVENING WERE ENOUGH TO
PROPEL SHOWERS INTO LATE EVENING. NOT EVERYONE IS SEEING RAIN BUT
THOSE THAT ARE...WERE GETTING UP TO ONE HALF INCH PER RADAR
ESTIMATES. THE MODELS ARE ALLOWING FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FADE
THROUGH 2 AM...SO KEEPING POPS ISOLATED AT BEST TOWARD SOUTH
BOSTON/YANCEYVILLE AND CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.
APPEARS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT OVERNIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO A SHORT PERIOD TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MAINLY IN
SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEY.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SOME AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR BE NEAR RECORD
LOW READINGS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING A BIT HIGHER. LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND THUS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE FARTHER NORTH. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
RETROGRADES. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COASTAL FRONT
WILL BE STATIONARY FROM THE DELMARVA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL A
SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z THURSDAY/8PM WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WITH
A SMALL LAYER OF INSTABILITY...THEN DRIER AIR ABOVE AT MID LEVEL AND
BELOW NEAR THE SURFACE.

DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS BE FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT SO THIS WILL BE MOST
THE DAY WITH A BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS GRADUALLY WARMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK UP TO ABOUT +14. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS FAR
AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS JUST SOUTH/SE OF KDAN SHOULD FINALLY EXIT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO LEAVING MAINLY VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE WEST. COULD SEE KDAN DROP DOWN TO
HIGH END MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE OTRW KEEPING CIGS
MAINLY IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE FROM KROA EAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK WAVE
ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY KICK
OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE CLEARING ESPCLY WEST BY DAWN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY FOG GIVEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT KLWB/KBCB AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SEEING IFR AT KLWB. HOWEVER LOWER CIGS AT KBLF AND KLWB LOOK
LESS LIKELY NOW WITH ANY LOW CIGS LIKELY DUE TO FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION LATE.

UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUT BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED CU/AC EARLY INCREASING TO BKN 4-6K
FT CLOUD BASES MOST SPOTS WITH HEATING. AN ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY WESTERN THIRD GIVEN THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE
FROM THE NW BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION. OTRW KEEPING IT
VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CIGS LIKELY TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY...THEN
INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME
BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB- VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300516
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
116 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A DRY...COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ENOUGH LOW LVL THETA-E INTO THE SOUTHERN VA PIEDMONT AS WELL AS
9.0C/KM LOW LVL LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS EVENING WERE ENOUGH TO
PROPEL SHOWERS INTO LATE EVENING. NOT EVERYONE IS SEEING RAIN BUT
THOSE THAT ARE...WERE GETTING UP TO ONE HALF INCH PER RADAR
ESTIMATES. THE MODELS ARE ALLOWING FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FADE
THROUGH 2 AM...SO KEEPING POPS ISOLATED AT BEST TOWARD SOUTH
BOSTON/YANCEYVILLE AND CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.
APPEARS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT OVERNIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO A SHORT PERIOD TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MAINLY IN
SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEY.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SOME AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR BE NEAR RECORD
LOW READINGS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING A BIT HIGHER. LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND THUS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE FARTHER NORTH. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
RETROGRADES. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COASTAL FRONT
WILL BE STATIONARY FROM THE DELMARVA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL A
SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z THURSDAY/8PM WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WITH
A SMALL LAYER OF INSTABILITY...THEN DRIER AIR ABOVE AT MID LEVEL AND
BELOW NEAR THE SURFACE.

DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS BE FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT SO THIS WILL BE MOST
THE DAY WITH A BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS GRADUALLY WARMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK UP TO ABOUT +14. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS FAR
AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS JUST SOUTH/SE OF KDAN SHOULD FINALLY EXIT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO LEAVING MAINLY VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE WEST. COULD SEE KDAN DROP DOWN TO
HIGH END MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE OTRW KEEPING CIGS
MAINLY IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE FROM KROA EAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK WAVE
ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY KICK
OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE CLEARING ESPCLY WEST BY DAWN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY FOG GIVEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT KLWB/KBCB AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SEEING IFR AT KLWB. HOWEVER LOWER CIGS AT KBLF AND KLWB LOOK
LESS LIKELY NOW WITH ANY LOW CIGS LIKELY DUE TO FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION LATE.

UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUT BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED CU/AC EARLY INCREASING TO BKN 4-6K
FT CLOUD BASES MOST SPOTS WITH HEATING. AN ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY WESTERN THIRD GIVEN THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE
FROM THE NW BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION. OTRW KEEPING IT
VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CIGS LIKELY TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY...THEN
INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME
BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB- VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300342
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1142 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A DRY...COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ENOUGH LOW LVL THETA-E INTO THE SOUTHERN VA PIEDMONT AS WELL AS
9.0C/KM LOW LVL LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS EVENING WERE ENOUGH TO
PROPEL SHOWERS INTO LATE EVENING. NOT EVERYONE IS SEEING RAIN BUT
THOSE THAT ARE...WERE GETTING UP TO ONE HALF INCH PER RADAR
ESTIMATES. THE MODELS ARE ALLOWING FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FADE
THROUGH 2 AM...SO KEEPING POPS ISOLATED AT BEST TOWARD SOUTH
BOSTON/YANCEYVILLE AND CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.
APPEARS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT OVERNIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO A SHORT PERIOD TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MAINLY IN
SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEY.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SOME AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR BE NEAR RECORD
LOW READINGS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING A BIT HIGHER. LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND THUS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE FARTHER NORTH. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
RETROGRADES. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COASTAL FRONT
WILL BE STATIONARY FROM THE DELMARVA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL A
SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z THURSDAY/8PM WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WITH
A SMALL LAYER OF INSTABILITY...THEN DRIER AIR ABOVE AT MID LEVEL AND
BELOW NEAR THE SURFACE.

DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS BE FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT SO THIS WILL BE MOST
THE DAY WITH A BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS GRADUALLY WARMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK UP TO ABOUT +14. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS FAR
AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHRA TO
MAINLY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD
COVER AND -SHRA WILL BE AMPLIFIED DURING THE NORMAL DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE...PEAKING IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME. ISOLD -SHRA
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY WEAK
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z. MOST CLOUDS OF CONSEQUENCE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EVEN MORE SO WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANYS. CIGS MOSTLY LOW END VFR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TRENDING TOWARD MVFR OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU. DID INCLUDE
-SHRA FOR LWB/BLF WED AFTERNOON WITH EVIDENCE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THAT REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING. NOT MUCH CONCERN WITH VSBYS...EXPECT POTENTIALLY AT LWB
IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH AND WIND DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
VSBYS WORSE THAN MVFR AT THIS POINT. WINDS MOSTLY WNW 5-7KTS
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH MORE TENDENCY FOR VRB OR
LIGHT SW WINDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300342
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1142 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A DRY...COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ENOUGH LOW LVL THETA-E INTO THE SOUTHERN VA PIEDMONT AS WELL AS
9.0C/KM LOW LVL LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS EVENING WERE ENOUGH TO
PROPEL SHOWERS INTO LATE EVENING. NOT EVERYONE IS SEEING RAIN BUT
THOSE THAT ARE...WERE GETTING UP TO ONE HALF INCH PER RADAR
ESTIMATES. THE MODELS ARE ALLOWING FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FADE
THROUGH 2 AM...SO KEEPING POPS ISOLATED AT BEST TOWARD SOUTH
BOSTON/YANCEYVILLE AND CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.
APPEARS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT OVERNIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO A SHORT PERIOD TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MAINLY IN
SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEY.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SOME AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR BE NEAR RECORD
LOW READINGS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING A BIT HIGHER. LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND THUS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE FARTHER NORTH. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
RETROGRADES. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COASTAL FRONT
WILL BE STATIONARY FROM THE DELMARVA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL A
SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z THURSDAY/8PM WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WITH
A SMALL LAYER OF INSTABILITY...THEN DRIER AIR ABOVE AT MID LEVEL AND
BELOW NEAR THE SURFACE.

DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS BE FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT SO THIS WILL BE MOST
THE DAY WITH A BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS GRADUALLY WARMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK UP TO ABOUT +14. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS FAR
AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHRA TO
MAINLY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD
COVER AND -SHRA WILL BE AMPLIFIED DURING THE NORMAL DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE...PEAKING IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME. ISOLD -SHRA
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY WEAK
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z. MOST CLOUDS OF CONSEQUENCE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EVEN MORE SO WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANYS. CIGS MOSTLY LOW END VFR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TRENDING TOWARD MVFR OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU. DID INCLUDE
-SHRA FOR LWB/BLF WED AFTERNOON WITH EVIDENCE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THAT REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING. NOT MUCH CONCERN WITH VSBYS...EXPECT POTENTIALLY AT LWB
IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH AND WIND DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
VSBYS WORSE THAN MVFR AT THIS POINT. WINDS MOSTLY WNW 5-7KTS
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH MORE TENDENCY FOR VRB OR
LIGHT SW WINDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A DRY...COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RENEGADE SHOWERS FIRING UP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VA WITH BEST
THETA-E AND LAPSE RATES ARE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE 18Z NAM SHOWED
THIS WELL IN ITS REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. LIGHT ECHOES ALSO FURTHER
WEST...BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY OVERALL TO STAY ISOLATED AT BEST
THROUGH THE EVENING. KEPT SOME SPRINKLES IN AS WELL EARLY.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE
FORECAST SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT OVERNIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO A SHORT PERIOD TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MAINLY IN
SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEY.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SOME AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR BE NEAR RECORD
LOW READINGS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING A BIT HIGHER. LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND THUS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE FARTHER NORTH. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
RETROGRADES. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COASTAL FRONT
WILL BE STATIONARY FROM THE DELMARVA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL A
SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z THURSDAY/8PM WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WITH
A SMALL LAYER OF INSTABILITY...THEN DRIER AIR ABOVE AT MID LEVEL AND
BELOW NEAR THE SURFACE.

DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS BE FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT SO THIS WILL BE MOST
THE DAY WITH A BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS GRADUALLY WARMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK UP TO ABOUT +14. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS FAR
AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHRA TO
MAINLY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD
COVER AND -SHRA WILL BE AMPLIFIED DURING THE NORMAL DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE...PEAKING IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME. ISOLD -SHRA
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY WEAK
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z. MOST CLOUDS OF CONSEQUENCE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EVEN MORE SO WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANYS. CIGS MOSTLY LOW END VFR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TRENDING TOWARD MVFR OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU. DID INCLUDE
-SHRA FOR LWB/BLF WED AFTERNOON WITH EVIDENCE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THAT REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING. NOT MUCH CONCERN WITH VSBYS...EXPECT POTENTIALLY AT LWB
IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH AND WIND DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
VSBYS WORSE THAN MVFR AT THIS POINT. WINDS MOSTLY WNW 5-7KTS
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH MORE TENDENCY FOR VRB OR
LIGHT SW WINDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 292354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A DRY...COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RENEGADE SHOWERS FIRING UP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VA WITH BEST
THETA-E AND LAPSE RATES ARE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE 18Z NAM SHOWED
THIS WELL IN ITS REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. LIGHT ECHOES ALSO FURTHER
WEST...BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY OVERALL TO STAY ISOLATED AT BEST
THROUGH THE EVENING. KEPT SOME SPRINKLES IN AS WELL EARLY.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE
FORECAST SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT OVERNIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO A SHORT PERIOD TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MAINLY IN
SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEY.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SOME AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR BE NEAR RECORD
LOW READINGS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING A BIT HIGHER. LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND THUS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE FARTHER NORTH. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
RETROGRADES. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COASTAL FRONT
WILL BE STATIONARY FROM THE DELMARVA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL A
SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z THURSDAY/8PM WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WITH
A SMALL LAYER OF INSTABILITY...THEN DRIER AIR ABOVE AT MID LEVEL AND
BELOW NEAR THE SURFACE.

DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS BE FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT SO THIS WILL BE MOST
THE DAY WITH A BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS GRADUALLY WARMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK UP TO ABOUT +14. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS FAR
AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHRA TO
MAINLY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD
COVER AND -SHRA WILL BE AMPLIFIED DURING THE NORMAL DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE...PEAKING IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME. ISOLD -SHRA
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY WEAK
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z. MOST CLOUDS OF CONSEQUENCE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EVEN MORE SO WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANYS. CIGS MOSTLY LOW END VFR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TRENDING TOWARD MVFR OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU. DID INCLUDE
-SHRA FOR LWB/BLF WED AFTERNOON WITH EVIDENCE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THAT REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING. NOT MUCH CONCERN WITH VSBYS...EXPECT POTENTIALLY AT LWB
IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH AND WIND DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
VSBYS WORSE THAN MVFR AT THIS POINT. WINDS MOSTLY WNW 5-7KTS
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH MORE TENDENCY FOR VRB OR
LIGHT SW WINDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292345
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A DRY...COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE MAIN LONGWAVE PATTERN AND IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA OF
OH/PA/MD/WV. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY STILL HELP
PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON THAT WILL LAST TO JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. MOST AREAS WILL BE
PRECIPITATION-FREE. OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
A SHORT PERIOD TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SOME AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR BE NEAR RECORD LOW READINGS. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING A BIT HIGHER. LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND THUS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE FARTHER NORTH. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
RETROGRADES. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COASTAL FRONT
WILL BE STATIONARY FROM THE DELMARVA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL A
SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z THURSDAY/8PM WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WITH
A SMALL LAYER OF INSTABILITY...THEN DRIER AIR ABOVE AT MID LEVEL AND
BELOW NEAR THE SURFACE.

DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS BE FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT SO THIS WILL BE MOST
THE DAY WITH A BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS GRADUALLY WARMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK UP TO ABOUT +14. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS FAR
AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHRA TO
MAINLY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD
COVER AND -SHRA WILL BE AMPLIFIED DURING THE NORMAL DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE...PEAKING IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME. ISOLD -SHRA
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY WEAK
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z. MOST CLOUDS OF CONSEQUENCE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EVEN MORE SO WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANYS. CIGS MOSTLY LOW END VFR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TRENDING TOWARD MVFR OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU. DID INCLUDE
-SHRA FOR LWB/BLF WED AFTERNOON WITH EVIDENCE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THAT REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING. NOT MUCH CONCERN WITH VSBYS...EXPECT POTENTIALLY AT LWB
IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH AND WIND DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
VSBYS WORSE THAN MVFR AT THIS POINT. WINDS MOSTLY WNW 5-7KTS
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH MORE TENDENCY FOR VRB OR
LIGHT SW WINDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292345
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A DRY...COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE MAIN LONGWAVE PATTERN AND IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA OF
OH/PA/MD/WV. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY STILL HELP
PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON THAT WILL LAST TO JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. MOST AREAS WILL BE
PRECIPITATION-FREE. OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
A SHORT PERIOD TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SOME AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR BE NEAR RECORD LOW READINGS. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING A BIT HIGHER. LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND THUS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE FARTHER NORTH. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
RETROGRADES. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COASTAL FRONT
WILL BE STATIONARY FROM THE DELMARVA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL A
SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z THURSDAY/8PM WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WITH
A SMALL LAYER OF INSTABILITY...THEN DRIER AIR ABOVE AT MID LEVEL AND
BELOW NEAR THE SURFACE.

DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS BE FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT SO THIS WILL BE MOST
THE DAY WITH A BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS GRADUALLY WARMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK UP TO ABOUT +14. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS FAR
AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHRA TO
MAINLY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD
COVER AND -SHRA WILL BE AMPLIFIED DURING THE NORMAL DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE...PEAKING IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME. ISOLD -SHRA
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY WEAK
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z. MOST CLOUDS OF CONSEQUENCE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EVEN MORE SO WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANYS. CIGS MOSTLY LOW END VFR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TRENDING TOWARD MVFR OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU. DID INCLUDE
-SHRA FOR LWB/BLF WED AFTERNOON WITH EVIDENCE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THAT REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING. NOT MUCH CONCERN WITH VSBYS...EXPECT POTENTIALLY AT LWB
IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH AND WIND DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
VSBYS WORSE THAN MVFR AT THIS POINT. WINDS MOSTLY WNW 5-7KTS
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH MORE TENDENCY FOR VRB OR
LIGHT SW WINDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A DRY...COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE MAIN LONGWAVE PATTERN AND IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA OF
OH/PA/MD/WV. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY STILL HELP
PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON THAT WILL LAST TO JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. MOST AREAS WILL BE
PRECIPITATION-FREE. OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
A SHORT PERIOD TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MAINLY IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SOME AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR BE NEAR RECORD LOW READINGS. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING A BIT HIGHER. LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND THUS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE FARTHER NORTH. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
RETROGRADES. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COASTAL FRONT
WILL BE STATIONARY FROM THE DELMARVA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL A
SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z THURSDAY/8PM WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WITH
A SMALL LAYER OF INSTABILITY...THEN DRIER AIR ABOVE AT MID LEVEL AND
BELOW NEAR THE SURFACE.

DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS BE FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT SO THIS WILL BE MOST
THE DAY WITH A BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS GRADUALLY WARMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK UP TO ABOUT +14. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS FAR
AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.

AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MIX OF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN
LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NEAR OR WEST OF KLWB WITH DONE ELSEWHERE.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA.

OVERNIGHT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
EXPECT VERY LIGHT IF NOT CALM WINDS...AND CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING AT OR AROUND SUNSET. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EVEN MORE LIMITED AS COMPARED TO
REALITY FROM THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KLWB.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. THE RADIO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN SERVICE ANY SOONER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291744
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN
TO THE EXPECTED REGION OF THE AREA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS
DEPICT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG A NARROW LINE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WV.
GIVEN THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST...PARTS
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT. HRRR AND
LOCAL RNK WRK-ARW MODELS ARE OFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF ROANOKE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OTHER ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
PROGGED OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST ALREADY REFLECT ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN MOST OF THESE AREAS. HAVE ADDED A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUGHLY FLOYD AND MARTINSVILLE VA.

REPORTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE EARLIER FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. MOST ADJUSTMENTS WERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CURRENT PROJECTION OF ARRIVAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK BASED UPON THE LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND EXPECTED
TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER TO REFLECT A GREATER ABUNDANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. OTHER THAN THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.

MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MIX OF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN
LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NEAR OR WEST OF KLWB WITH DONE ELSEWHERE.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA.

OVERNIGHT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
EXPECT VERY LIGHT IF NOT CALM WINDS...AND CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING AT OR AROUND SUNSET. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EVEN MORE LIMITED AS COMPARED TO
REALITY FROM THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KLWB.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291744
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN
TO THE EXPECTED REGION OF THE AREA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS
DEPICT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG A NARROW LINE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WV.
GIVEN THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST...PARTS
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT. HRRR AND
LOCAL RNK WRK-ARW MODELS ARE OFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF ROANOKE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OTHER ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
PROGGED OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST ALREADY REFLECT ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN MOST OF THESE AREAS. HAVE ADDED A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUGHLY FLOYD AND MARTINSVILLE VA.

REPORTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE EARLIER FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. MOST ADJUSTMENTS WERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CURRENT PROJECTION OF ARRIVAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK BASED UPON THE LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND EXPECTED
TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER TO REFLECT A GREATER ABUNDANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. OTHER THAN THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.

MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MIX OF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN
LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NEAR OR WEST OF KLWB WITH DONE ELSEWHERE.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA.

OVERNIGHT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
EXPECT VERY LIGHT IF NOT CALM WINDS...AND CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING AT OR AROUND SUNSET. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EVEN MORE LIMITED AS COMPARED TO
REALITY FROM THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KLWB.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291700
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN
TO THE EXPECTED REGION OF THE AREA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS
DEPICT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG A NARROW LINE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WV.
GIVEN THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST...PARTS
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT. HRRR AND
LOCAL RNK WRK-ARW MODELS ARE OFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF ROANOKE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OTHER ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
PROGGED OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST ALREADY REFLECT ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN MOST OF THESE AREAS. HAVE ADDED A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUGHLY FLOYD AND MARTINSVILLE VA.

REPORTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE EARLIER FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. MOST ADJUSTMENTS WERE
ACROSS THE SSOUTHERNAND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CURRENT PROJECTION OF ARRIVAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK BASED UPON THE LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND EXPECTED
TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER TO REFLECT A GREATER ABUNDANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. OTHER THAN THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.

MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...

PATCHY MVFR FOG WAS NOTED AT KLWB AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z...LEAVING VFR
SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TO BKN STRATOCU LAYER TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH CLOUD BASES
RANGING 3KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 5KFT FURTHER EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/PH/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291700
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN
TO THE EXPECTED REGION OF THE AREA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS
DEPICT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG A NARROW LINE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WV.
GIVEN THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST...PARTS
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT. HRRR AND
LOCAL RNK WRK-ARW MODELS ARE OFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF ROANOKE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OTHER ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
PROGGED OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST ALREADY REFLECT ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN MOST OF THESE AREAS. HAVE ADDED A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUGHLY FLOYD AND MARTINSVILLE VA.

REPORTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE EARLIER FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. MOST ADJUSTMENTS WERE
ACROSS THE SSOUTHERNAND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CURRENT PROJECTION OF ARRIVAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK BASED UPON THE LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND EXPECTED
TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER TO REFLECT A GREATER ABUNDANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. OTHER THAN THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.

MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...

PATCHY MVFR FOG WAS NOTED AT KLWB AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z...LEAVING VFR
SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TO BKN STRATOCU LAYER TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH CLOUD BASES
RANGING 3KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 5KFT FURTHER EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/PH/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291351
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
951 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CURRENT PROJECTION OF ARRIVAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK BASED UPON THE LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND EXPECTED
TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER TO REFLECT A GREATER ABUNDANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. OTHER THAN THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.

MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...

PATCHY MVFR FOG WAS NOTED AT KLWB AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z...LEAVING VFR
SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TO BKN STRATOCU LAYER TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH CLOUD BASES
RANGING 3KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 5KFT FURTHER EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/PH/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291351
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
951 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CURRENT PROJECTION OF ARRIVAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK BASED UPON THE LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND EXPECTED
TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER TO REFLECT A GREATER ABUNDANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. OTHER THAN THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.

MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...

PATCHY MVFR FOG WAS NOTED AT KLWB AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z...LEAVING VFR
SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TO BKN STRATOCU LAYER TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH CLOUD BASES
RANGING 3KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 5KFT FURTHER EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/PH/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.

MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...

PATCHY MVFR FOG WAS NOTED AT KLWB AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z...LEAVING VFR
SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TO BKN STRATOCU LAYER TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH CLOUD BASES
RANGING 3KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 5KFT FURTHER EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/PH/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.

MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...

PATCHY MVFR FOG WAS NOTED AT KLWB AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z...LEAVING VFR
SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TO BKN STRATOCU LAYER TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH CLOUD BASES
RANGING 3KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 5KFT FURTHER EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/PH/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290815
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
415 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.

MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.  LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE 29/06Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE MINOR AND
FOCUSED MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. STARTING THE TAF PERIOD WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT KBLF DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BANKING
MOISTURE IN THE NEARBY TERRAIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MOST OTHER
AIRPORTS...AS WINDS ARE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MORE THAN ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG.
SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT MAY ALSO
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES.

MOUNTAIN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER DURING LATE
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SCT TO BKN STRATOCU LAYER TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH CLOUD BASES RANGING 3KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 5KFT FURTHER
EAST. SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS 5KTS
TO 10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




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