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000
FXUS61 KRNK 010841
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE MID ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY DRYING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO...AND IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO SET UP
SHOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAR MORE
RELAXED COMPARED TO TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED WIND SPEEDS
TO FALL BELOW 10 MPH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND EVEN
THOSE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE
BEFORE SCATTERING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVERHEAD ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE
FLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA SHUTTING OFF BY LATE MORNING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND THE MID/UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OUTER BANKS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...ASIDE FROM PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGHLANDS TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY WITH MOIST AIR BEGINNING ITS RETURN
NORTHWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW OFF THE SURFACE INCREASES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MODESTLY
WARMING AGAIN THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON A BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL ESSENTIALLY DICTATE THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT. DESPITE THE CHAOTIC PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN...BUT DO DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

BEGINNING THURSDAY AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR OUT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE FIRST SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT TO NEAR THE
PA/MD/WV BORDER. FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL AWAIT
THE NEXT IMPULSE EVIDENT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN
DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH...FEEL THAT MOST IF NOT ALL MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTH-WEST OF THE CWA THU. THUS...HAVE CONFINED
POPS TO AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...NAMELY LWB-BLF-TNB
WESTWARD.

FOR FRI...THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY FRI AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM STRONGER SHORT
WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO BEGIN A BETTER PUSH SOUTHWARD AND
EASTWARD LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT. NONETHELESS...THE BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
FROM NW- SE LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE NEXT ISSUE TO ADDRESS IS THE THUNDER POTENTIAL. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THUNDER THU
AFTERNOON...AND THE ENTIRE CWA FOR FRI...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE MAINLY WEST OF I-77 FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AND WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON HEATING FRI...WHICH WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE DYNAMICS AR WEAKEST AND THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE COOLER
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS CAPES PEAK IN THE 400-800 RANGE FRI
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOTABLY LESS ON THE OTHER MODELS. THERE IS
HOWEVER A DECENT 850MB LLJ OF 40-50KTS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION
FRI EVENING WITH NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST OTHERWISE.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT WOULD RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA WHERE THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE HUNG UP THU-EARLY FRI. STILL SHOWING ONLY 1 INCH OR LESS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN HEAVIER
TOTALS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. COULD SEE A SITUATION FRI EVENING
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW AT THE LAST MINUTE ON MARCH 26TH.

FOR SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN ORDER FOR THE REGION
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM +12C READINGS FRI TO AROUND -4C EARLY SAT.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS COULD BRING SOME
-SHSN TO THAT REGION BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXITS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AND NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEKEND
WITH THE POST SFC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS INSTEAD
OF SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR SUN. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST
BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS HIGH
PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR EASTERN U.S. RIDGING AND WESTERN U.S.
TROUGHING THAT WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. MON-WED APPEARS UNSETTLED AND WET...
FIRST FROM RETURNING WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE...A SERIES OF UPPER
SHORT WAVES...AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

IT WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. AGAIN...NOTHING LIKE WE SAW LAST WEEKEND
AS THIS AIR MASS DOES NOT HAVE ROOTS IN CANADA OR THE ARCTIC.
THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
EASTERN U.S...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE A FEW
20+KT GUSTS THROUGH 01/10Z AT PLACES LIKE KROA/KHSP/KTNB.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA BY DAWN THURSDAY AS MOIST AIR
RETURNS UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010841
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE MID ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY DRYING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO...AND IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO SET UP
SHOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAR MORE
RELAXED COMPARED TO TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED WIND SPEEDS
TO FALL BELOW 10 MPH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND EVEN
THOSE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE
BEFORE SCATTERING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVERHEAD ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE
FLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA SHUTTING OFF BY LATE MORNING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND THE MID/UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OUTER BANKS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...ASIDE FROM PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGHLANDS TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY WITH MOIST AIR BEGINNING ITS RETURN
NORTHWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW OFF THE SURFACE INCREASES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MODESTLY
WARMING AGAIN THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON A BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL ESSENTIALLY DICTATE THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT. DESPITE THE CHAOTIC PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN...BUT DO DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

BEGINNING THURSDAY AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR OUT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE FIRST SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT TO NEAR THE
PA/MD/WV BORDER. FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL AWAIT
THE NEXT IMPULSE EVIDENT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN
DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH...FEEL THAT MOST IF NOT ALL MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTH-WEST OF THE CWA THU. THUS...HAVE CONFINED
POPS TO AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...NAMELY LWB-BLF-TNB
WESTWARD.

FOR FRI...THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY FRI AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM STRONGER SHORT
WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO BEGIN A BETTER PUSH SOUTHWARD AND
EASTWARD LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT. NONETHELESS...THE BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
FROM NW- SE LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE NEXT ISSUE TO ADDRESS IS THE THUNDER POTENTIAL. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THUNDER THU
AFTERNOON...AND THE ENTIRE CWA FOR FRI...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE MAINLY WEST OF I-77 FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AND WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON HEATING FRI...WHICH WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE DYNAMICS AR WEAKEST AND THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE COOLER
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS CAPES PEAK IN THE 400-800 RANGE FRI
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOTABLY LESS ON THE OTHER MODELS. THERE IS
HOWEVER A DECENT 850MB LLJ OF 40-50KTS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION
FRI EVENING WITH NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST OTHERWISE.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT WOULD RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA WHERE THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE HUNG UP THU-EARLY FRI. STILL SHOWING ONLY 1 INCH OR LESS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN HEAVIER
TOTALS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. COULD SEE A SITUATION FRI EVENING
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW AT THE LAST MINUTE ON MARCH 26TH.

FOR SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN ORDER FOR THE REGION
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM +12C READINGS FRI TO AROUND -4C EARLY SAT.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS COULD BRING SOME
-SHSN TO THAT REGION BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXITS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AND NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEKEND
WITH THE POST SFC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS INSTEAD
OF SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR SUN. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST
BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS HIGH
PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR EASTERN U.S. RIDGING AND WESTERN U.S.
TROUGHING THAT WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. MON-WED APPEARS UNSETTLED AND WET...
FIRST FROM RETURNING WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE...A SERIES OF UPPER
SHORT WAVES...AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

IT WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. AGAIN...NOTHING LIKE WE SAW LAST WEEKEND
AS THIS AIR MASS DOES NOT HAVE ROOTS IN CANADA OR THE ARCTIC.
THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
EASTERN U.S...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE A FEW
20+KT GUSTS THROUGH 01/10Z AT PLACES LIKE KROA/KHSP/KTNB.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA BY DAWN THURSDAY AS MOIST AIR
RETURNS UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010841
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE MID ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY DRYING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO...AND IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO SET UP
SHOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAR MORE
RELAXED COMPARED TO TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED WIND SPEEDS
TO FALL BELOW 10 MPH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND EVEN
THOSE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE
BEFORE SCATTERING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVERHEAD ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE
FLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA SHUTTING OFF BY LATE MORNING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND THE MID/UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OUTER BANKS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...ASIDE FROM PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGHLANDS TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY WITH MOIST AIR BEGINNING ITS RETURN
NORTHWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW OFF THE SURFACE INCREASES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MODESTLY
WARMING AGAIN THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON A BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL ESSENTIALLY DICTATE THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT. DESPITE THE CHAOTIC PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN...BUT DO DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

BEGINNING THURSDAY AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR OUT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE FIRST SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT TO NEAR THE
PA/MD/WV BORDER. FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL AWAIT
THE NEXT IMPULSE EVIDENT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN
DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH...FEEL THAT MOST IF NOT ALL MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTH-WEST OF THE CWA THU. THUS...HAVE CONFINED
POPS TO AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...NAMELY LWB-BLF-TNB
WESTWARD.

FOR FRI...THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY FRI AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM STRONGER SHORT
WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO BEGIN A BETTER PUSH SOUTHWARD AND
EASTWARD LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT. NONETHELESS...THE BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
FROM NW- SE LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE NEXT ISSUE TO ADDRESS IS THE THUNDER POTENTIAL. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THUNDER THU
AFTERNOON...AND THE ENTIRE CWA FOR FRI...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE MAINLY WEST OF I-77 FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AND WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON HEATING FRI...WHICH WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE DYNAMICS AR WEAKEST AND THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE COOLER
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS CAPES PEAK IN THE 400-800 RANGE FRI
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOTABLY LESS ON THE OTHER MODELS. THERE IS
HOWEVER A DECENT 850MB LLJ OF 40-50KTS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION
FRI EVENING WITH NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST OTHERWISE.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT WOULD RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA WHERE THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE HUNG UP THU-EARLY FRI. STILL SHOWING ONLY 1 INCH OR LESS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN HEAVIER
TOTALS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. COULD SEE A SITUATION FRI EVENING
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW AT THE LAST MINUTE ON MARCH 26TH.

FOR SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN ORDER FOR THE REGION
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM +12C READINGS FRI TO AROUND -4C EARLY SAT.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS COULD BRING SOME
-SHSN TO THAT REGION BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXITS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AND NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEKEND
WITH THE POST SFC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS INSTEAD
OF SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR SUN. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST
BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS HIGH
PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR EASTERN U.S. RIDGING AND WESTERN U.S.
TROUGHING THAT WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. MON-WED APPEARS UNSETTLED AND WET...
FIRST FROM RETURNING WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE...A SERIES OF UPPER
SHORT WAVES...AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

IT WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. AGAIN...NOTHING LIKE WE SAW LAST WEEKEND
AS THIS AIR MASS DOES NOT HAVE ROOTS IN CANADA OR THE ARCTIC.
THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
EASTERN U.S...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE A FEW
20+KT GUSTS THROUGH 01/10Z AT PLACES LIKE KROA/KHSP/KTNB.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA BY DAWN THURSDAY AS MOIST AIR
RETURNS UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010841
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE MID ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY DRYING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO...AND IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO SET UP
SHOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAR MORE
RELAXED COMPARED TO TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED WIND SPEEDS
TO FALL BELOW 10 MPH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND EVEN
THOSE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE
BEFORE SCATTERING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVERHEAD ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE
FLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA SHUTTING OFF BY LATE MORNING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND THE MID/UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OUTER BANKS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...ASIDE FROM PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGHLANDS TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY WITH MOIST AIR BEGINNING ITS RETURN
NORTHWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW OFF THE SURFACE INCREASES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MODESTLY
WARMING AGAIN THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON A BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL ESSENTIALLY DICTATE THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT. DESPITE THE CHAOTIC PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN...BUT DO DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

BEGINNING THURSDAY AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR OUT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE FIRST SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT TO NEAR THE
PA/MD/WV BORDER. FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL AWAIT
THE NEXT IMPULSE EVIDENT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN
DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH...FEEL THAT MOST IF NOT ALL MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTH-WEST OF THE CWA THU. THUS...HAVE CONFINED
POPS TO AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...NAMELY LWB-BLF-TNB
WESTWARD.

FOR FRI...THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY FRI AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM STRONGER SHORT
WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO BEGIN A BETTER PUSH SOUTHWARD AND
EASTWARD LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT. NONETHELESS...THE BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
FROM NW- SE LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE NEXT ISSUE TO ADDRESS IS THE THUNDER POTENTIAL. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THUNDER THU
AFTERNOON...AND THE ENTIRE CWA FOR FRI...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE MAINLY WEST OF I-77 FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AND WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON HEATING FRI...WHICH WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE DYNAMICS AR WEAKEST AND THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE COOLER
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS CAPES PEAK IN THE 400-800 RANGE FRI
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOTABLY LESS ON THE OTHER MODELS. THERE IS
HOWEVER A DECENT 850MB LLJ OF 40-50KTS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION
FRI EVENING WITH NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST OTHERWISE.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT WOULD RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA WHERE THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE HUNG UP THU-EARLY FRI. STILL SHOWING ONLY 1 INCH OR LESS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN HEAVIER
TOTALS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. COULD SEE A SITUATION FRI EVENING
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW AT THE LAST MINUTE ON MARCH 26TH.

FOR SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN ORDER FOR THE REGION
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM +12C READINGS FRI TO AROUND -4C EARLY SAT.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS COULD BRING SOME
-SHSN TO THAT REGION BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXITS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AND NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEKEND
WITH THE POST SFC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS INSTEAD
OF SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR SUN. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST
BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS HIGH
PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR EASTERN U.S. RIDGING AND WESTERN U.S.
TROUGHING THAT WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. MON-WED APPEARS UNSETTLED AND WET...
FIRST FROM RETURNING WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE...A SERIES OF UPPER
SHORT WAVES...AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

IT WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. AGAIN...NOTHING LIKE WE SAW LAST WEEKEND
AS THIS AIR MASS DOES NOT HAVE ROOTS IN CANADA OR THE ARCTIC.
THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
EASTERN U.S...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE A FEW
20+KT GUSTS THROUGH 01/10Z AT PLACES LIKE KROA/KHSP/KTNB.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA BY DAWN THURSDAY AS MOIST AIR
RETURNS UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NW
AND DIMINISHING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION KICKING
IN WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL PASS NORTH AND
WITH SOME LIGHT MIXING PERSISTING APPEARS LOW TEMPS MAY GET HUNG
UP IN THE 40S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SO BUMPED UP LOWS A CAT OR
SO. OTRW CLOUDS LOOK QUITE LIMITED GIVEN ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE SPILLING IN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MID DECK OVER
THE FAR WEST AS WELL AS THE PIEDMONT TO KEEP THINGS MORE OF THE
PC VARIETY THERE THROUGH DAYBREAK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE A FEW
20+KT GUSTS THROUGH 01/10Z AT PLACES LIKE KROA/KHSP/KTNB.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA BY DAWN THURSDAY AS MOIST AIR
RETURNS UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NW
AND DIMINISHING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION KICKING
IN WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL PASS NORTH AND
WITH SOME LIGHT MIXING PERSISTING APPEARS LOW TEMPS MAY GET HUNG
UP IN THE 40S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SO BUMPED UP LOWS A CAT OR
SO. OTRW CLOUDS LOOK QUITE LIMITED GIVEN ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE SPILLING IN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MID DECK OVER
THE FAR WEST AS WELL AS THE PIEDMONT TO KEEP THINGS MORE OF THE
PC VARIETY THERE THROUGH DAYBREAK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE A FEW
20+KT GUSTS THROUGH 01/10Z AT PLACES LIKE KROA/KHSP/KTNB.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA BY DAWN THURSDAY AS MOIST AIR
RETURNS UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NW
AND DIMINISHING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION KICKING
IN WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL PASS NORTH AND
WITH SOME LIGHT MIXING PERSISTING APPEARS LOW TEMPS MAY GET HUNG
UP IN THE 40S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SO BUMPED UP LOWS A CAT OR
SO. OTRW CLOUDS LOOK QUITE LIMITED GIVEN ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE SPILLING IN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MID DECK OVER
THE FAR WEST AS WELL AS THE PIEDMONT TO KEEP THINGS MORE OF THE
PC VARIETY THERE THROUGH DAYBREAK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE A FEW
20+KT GUSTS THROUGH 01/10Z AT PLACES LIKE KROA/KHSP/KTNB.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA BY DAWN THURSDAY AS MOIST AIR
RETURNS UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NW
AND DIMINISHING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION KICKING
IN WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL PASS NORTH AND
WITH SOME LIGHT MIXING PERSISTING APPEARS LOW TEMPS MAY GET HUNG
UP IN THE 40S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SO BUMPED UP LOWS A CAT OR
SO. OTRW CLOUDS LOOK QUITE LIMITED GIVEN ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE SPILLING IN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MID DECK OVER
THE FAR WEST AS WELL AS THE PIEDMONT TO KEEP THINGS MORE OF THE
PC VARIETY THERE THROUGH DAYBREAK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE A FEW
20+KT GUSTS THROUGH 01/10Z AT PLACES LIKE KROA/KHSP/KTNB.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA BY DAWN THURSDAY AS MOIST AIR
RETURNS UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010127
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
927 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NW
AND DIMINISHING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION KICKING
IN WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL PASS NORTH AND
WITH SOME LIGHT MIXING PERSISTING APPEARS LOW TEMPS MAY GET HUNG
UP IN THE 40S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SO BUMPED UP LOWS A CAT OR
SO. OTRW CLOUDS LOOK QUITE LIMITED GIVEN ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE SPILLING IN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MID DECK OVER
THE FAR WEST AS WELL AS THE PIEDMONT TO KEEP THINGS MORE OF THE
PC VARIETY THERE THROUGH DAYBREAK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE NW THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES AND DEEP MIXING SUBSIDES GIVEN
LOSS OF HEATING. MAY STILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE SPEEDS REALLY DROP OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BAND OF SCT TO BKN
VFR CIGS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND
KBLF OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN DRY AIR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO DRIFT
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NW AND DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THUS WILL LET THE GOING RED FLAG
WARNING EXPIRE AT 8 PM WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AND FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. HUMIDITY
WILL AGAIN BE LOW...BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP
FIRE WEATHER...JH/NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010127
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
927 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NW
AND DIMINISHING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION KICKING
IN WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL PASS NORTH AND
WITH SOME LIGHT MIXING PERSISTING APPEARS LOW TEMPS MAY GET HUNG
UP IN THE 40S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SO BUMPED UP LOWS A CAT OR
SO. OTRW CLOUDS LOOK QUITE LIMITED GIVEN ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE SPILLING IN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MID DECK OVER
THE FAR WEST AS WELL AS THE PIEDMONT TO KEEP THINGS MORE OF THE
PC VARIETY THERE THROUGH DAYBREAK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE NW THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES AND DEEP MIXING SUBSIDES GIVEN
LOSS OF HEATING. MAY STILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE SPEEDS REALLY DROP OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BAND OF SCT TO BKN
VFR CIGS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND
KBLF OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN DRY AIR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO DRIFT
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NW AND DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THUS WILL LET THE GOING RED FLAG
WARNING EXPIRE AT 8 PM WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AND FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. HUMIDITY
WILL AGAIN BE LOW...BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP
FIRE WEATHER...JH/NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 312359 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
759 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.


ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE NW THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES AND DEEP MIXING SUBSIDES GIVEN
LOSS OF HEATING. MAY STILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE SPEEDS REALLY DROP OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BAND OF SCT TO BKN
VFR CIGS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND
KBLF OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN DRY AIR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO DRIFT
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NW AND DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THUS WILL LET THE GOING RED FLAG
WARNING EXPIRE AT 8 PM WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AND FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. HUMIDITY
WILL AGAIN BE LOW...BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP
FIRE WEATHER...JH/NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 312359 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
759 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.


ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE NW THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES AND DEEP MIXING SUBSIDES GIVEN
LOSS OF HEATING. MAY STILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE SPEEDS REALLY DROP OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BAND OF SCT TO BKN
VFR CIGS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND
KBLF OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN DRY AIR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO DRIFT
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NW AND DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THUS WILL LET THE GOING RED FLAG
WARNING EXPIRE AT 8 PM WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AND FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. HUMIDITY
WILL AGAIN BE LOW...BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP
FIRE WEATHER...JH/NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 312359 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
759 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.


ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE NW THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES AND DEEP MIXING SUBSIDES GIVEN
LOSS OF HEATING. MAY STILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE SPEEDS REALLY DROP OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BAND OF SCT TO BKN
VFR CIGS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND
KBLF OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN DRY AIR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO DRIFT
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NW AND DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THUS WILL LET THE GOING RED FLAG
WARNING EXPIRE AT 8 PM WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AND FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. HUMIDITY
WILL AGAIN BE LOW...BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP
FIRE WEATHER...JH/NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311955
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH
A FEW SHOWERS...THEN COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.


ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO BE A WINDY AFTERNOON FOR FLYING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TOWARD THE WEST THEN NW.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT A FEW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MTNS...POSSIBLY FOOTHILLS...THOUGH MOST WILL BE SCATTERED AND OVER
3KFT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE MOST
LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20 MPH...HIGHER
IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311955
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH
A FEW SHOWERS...THEN COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.


ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO BE A WINDY AFTERNOON FOR FLYING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TOWARD THE WEST THEN NW.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT A FEW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MTNS...POSSIBLY FOOTHILLS...THOUGH MOST WILL BE SCATTERED AND OVER
3KFT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE MOST
LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20 MPH...HIGHER
IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311955
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH
A FEW SHOWERS...THEN COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.


ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO BE A WINDY AFTERNOON FOR FLYING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TOWARD THE WEST THEN NW.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT A FEW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MTNS...POSSIBLY FOOTHILLS...THOUGH MOST WILL BE SCATTERED AND OVER
3KFT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE MOST
LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20 MPH...HIGHER
IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311955
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH
A FEW SHOWERS...THEN COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.


ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO BE A WINDY AFTERNOON FOR FLYING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TOWARD THE WEST THEN NW.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT A FEW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MTNS...POSSIBLY FOOTHILLS...THOUGH MOST WILL BE SCATTERED AND OVER
3KFT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE MOST
LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20 MPH...HIGHER
IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311751
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
151 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING A MAINLY DRY FRONT ACROSS BY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY WINDS SET TO WARM THINGS UP
QUITE NICELY TODAY. AT ISSUE WILL BE FIRE WX CONCERNS. SEE FIRE
WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODIFIED TEMPS UP BASED ON LATEST TEMP TRENDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS
UNTIL LATE. OVERALL...THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANYS INTO WV. MAY
SEE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING AND SOME ALSO
OVER THE NW NC MTNS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO BE A WINDY AFTERNOON FOR FLYING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TOWARD THE WEST THEN NW.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT A FEW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MTNS...POSSIBLY FOOTHILLS...THOUGH MOST WILL BE SCATTERED AND OVER
3KFT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF NOON EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS WILL INTO THE
60S...WITH LOWER 70S EAST. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE MOST LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
MPH...HIGHER IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311751
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
151 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING A MAINLY DRY FRONT ACROSS BY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY WINDS SET TO WARM THINGS UP
QUITE NICELY TODAY. AT ISSUE WILL BE FIRE WX CONCERNS. SEE FIRE
WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODIFIED TEMPS UP BASED ON LATEST TEMP TRENDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS
UNTIL LATE. OVERALL...THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANYS INTO WV. MAY
SEE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING AND SOME ALSO
OVER THE NW NC MTNS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO BE A WINDY AFTERNOON FOR FLYING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TOWARD THE WEST THEN NW.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT A FEW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MTNS...POSSIBLY FOOTHILLS...THOUGH MOST WILL BE SCATTERED AND OVER
3KFT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF NOON EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS WILL INTO THE
60S...WITH LOWER 70S EAST. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE MOST LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
MPH...HIGHER IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311751
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
151 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING A MAINLY DRY FRONT ACROSS BY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY WINDS SET TO WARM THINGS UP
QUITE NICELY TODAY. AT ISSUE WILL BE FIRE WX CONCERNS. SEE FIRE
WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODIFIED TEMPS UP BASED ON LATEST TEMP TRENDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS
UNTIL LATE. OVERALL...THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANYS INTO WV. MAY
SEE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING AND SOME ALSO
OVER THE NW NC MTNS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO BE A WINDY AFTERNOON FOR FLYING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TOWARD THE WEST THEN NW.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT A FEW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MTNS...POSSIBLY FOOTHILLS...THOUGH MOST WILL BE SCATTERED AND OVER
3KFT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF NOON EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS WILL INTO THE
60S...WITH LOWER 70S EAST. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE MOST LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
MPH...HIGHER IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311751
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
151 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING A MAINLY DRY FRONT ACROSS BY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY WINDS SET TO WARM THINGS UP
QUITE NICELY TODAY. AT ISSUE WILL BE FIRE WX CONCERNS. SEE FIRE
WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODIFIED TEMPS UP BASED ON LATEST TEMP TRENDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS
UNTIL LATE. OVERALL...THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANYS INTO WV. MAY
SEE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING AND SOME ALSO
OVER THE NW NC MTNS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO BE A WINDY AFTERNOON FOR FLYING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TOWARD THE WEST THEN NW.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT A FEW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MTNS...POSSIBLY FOOTHILLS...THOUGH MOST WILL BE SCATTERED AND OVER
3KFT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF NOON EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS WILL INTO THE
60S...WITH LOWER 70S EAST. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE MOST LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
MPH...HIGHER IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311622
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1222 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING A MAINLY DRY FRONT ACROSS BY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY WINDS SET TO WARM THINGS UP
QUITE NICELY TODAY. AT ISSUE WILL BE FIRE WX CONCERNS. SEE FIRE
WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODIFIED TEMPS UP BASED ON LATEST TEMP TRENDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS
UNTIL LATE. OVERALL...THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANYS INTO WV. MAY
SEE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING AND SOME ALSO
OVER THE NW NC MTNS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS
AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
BE MORE SW-WSW AS OPPOSED TO WNW-NW OBSERVED MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. MODELS SEEM WAY OVERDONE IN MY OPINION IN BRINGING
CLOUDS AND MEASURABLE QPF AS MUCH AS 0.10 INCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF LOW END VFR OR HIGH END
MVFR CIGS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY A DOWNSLOPE/DRYING SITUATION
AND EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME
NORTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
MID- LATE AFTERNOON EASTERN WV AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF NOON EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS WILL INTO THE
60S...WITH LOWER 70S EAST. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE MOST LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
MPH...HIGHER IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...NF/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311622
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1222 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING A MAINLY DRY FRONT ACROSS BY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY WINDS SET TO WARM THINGS UP
QUITE NICELY TODAY. AT ISSUE WILL BE FIRE WX CONCERNS. SEE FIRE
WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODIFIED TEMPS UP BASED ON LATEST TEMP TRENDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS
UNTIL LATE. OVERALL...THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANYS INTO WV. MAY
SEE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING AND SOME ALSO
OVER THE NW NC MTNS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS
AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
BE MORE SW-WSW AS OPPOSED TO WNW-NW OBSERVED MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. MODELS SEEM WAY OVERDONE IN MY OPINION IN BRINGING
CLOUDS AND MEASURABLE QPF AS MUCH AS 0.10 INCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF LOW END VFR OR HIGH END
MVFR CIGS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY A DOWNSLOPE/DRYING SITUATION
AND EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME
NORTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
MID- LATE AFTERNOON EASTERN WV AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF NOON EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS WILL INTO THE
60S...WITH LOWER 70S EAST. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE MOST LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
MPH...HIGHER IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...NF/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311622
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1222 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING A MAINLY DRY FRONT ACROSS BY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY WINDS SET TO WARM THINGS UP
QUITE NICELY TODAY. AT ISSUE WILL BE FIRE WX CONCERNS. SEE FIRE
WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODIFIED TEMPS UP BASED ON LATEST TEMP TRENDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS
UNTIL LATE. OVERALL...THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANYS INTO WV. MAY
SEE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING AND SOME ALSO
OVER THE NW NC MTNS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS
AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
BE MORE SW-WSW AS OPPOSED TO WNW-NW OBSERVED MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. MODELS SEEM WAY OVERDONE IN MY OPINION IN BRINGING
CLOUDS AND MEASURABLE QPF AS MUCH AS 0.10 INCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF LOW END VFR OR HIGH END
MVFR CIGS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY A DOWNSLOPE/DRYING SITUATION
AND EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME
NORTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
MID- LATE AFTERNOON EASTERN WV AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF NOON EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS WILL INTO THE
60S...WITH LOWER 70S EAST. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE MOST LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
MPH...HIGHER IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...NF/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311622
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1222 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING A MAINLY DRY FRONT ACROSS BY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY WINDS SET TO WARM THINGS UP
QUITE NICELY TODAY. AT ISSUE WILL BE FIRE WX CONCERNS. SEE FIRE
WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODIFIED TEMPS UP BASED ON LATEST TEMP TRENDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS
UNTIL LATE. OVERALL...THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANYS INTO WV. MAY
SEE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING AND SOME ALSO
OVER THE NW NC MTNS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS
AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
BE MORE SW-WSW AS OPPOSED TO WNW-NW OBSERVED MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. MODELS SEEM WAY OVERDONE IN MY OPINION IN BRINGING
CLOUDS AND MEASURABLE QPF AS MUCH AS 0.10 INCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF LOW END VFR OR HIGH END
MVFR CIGS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY A DOWNSLOPE/DRYING SITUATION
AND EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME
NORTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
MID- LATE AFTERNOON EASTERN WV AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF NOON EDT TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN INCREASE SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS WILL INTO THE
60S...WITH LOWER 70S EAST. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE MOST LOCATIONS...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
MPH...HIGHER IN THE MTNS...WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

PER COORDINATION WITH USFS IN VA AND STATE FOREST OFFICIALS IN
WV...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR WEST TO SE
WV...AND EXTENDED IN TIME THE RED FLAG TIL 8PM BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND RH RISES. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND ALL OF NC...AS ELEMENTS
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER AS GREAT FOR A RED FLAG...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND RH.

FIRE OFFICIAL SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-017>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...NF/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311146
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
746 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER
THE CHICAGO AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAVE YET TO
RESPOND TO THE LOW`S INFLUENCE...AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...WITH
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 30S.

WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARM
AIR RIDING INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO
THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS
OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF OUR AREA CAN
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH. HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE GUSTS
REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. THAT STATED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER AN LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS.

OF GREATER CONCERN ARE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS SUCH AS LEAF
LITTER AND GRASSES...AND ANY FIRES MAY QUICKLY BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS
AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
BE MORE SW-WSW AS OPPOSED TO WNW-NW OBSERVED MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. MODELS SEEM WAY OVERDONE IN MY OPINION IN BRINGING
CLOUDS AND MEASURABLE QPF AS MUCH AS 0.10 INCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF LOW END VFR OR HIGH END
MVFR CIGS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY A DOWNSLOPE/DRYING SITUATION
AND EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME
NORTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
MID- LATE AFTERNOON EASTERN WV AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HAS MAINTAINED LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...CAUSING
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
WARM AIR BUILDING IN AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO NEAR
20 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE AS WELL...WITH WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING 15 MPH TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN
FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2
TO 5 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...NF/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311146
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
746 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER
THE CHICAGO AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAVE YET TO
RESPOND TO THE LOW`S INFLUENCE...AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...WITH
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 30S.

WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARM
AIR RIDING INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO
THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS
OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF OUR AREA CAN
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH. HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE GUSTS
REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. THAT STATED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER AN LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS.

OF GREATER CONCERN ARE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS SUCH AS LEAF
LITTER AND GRASSES...AND ANY FIRES MAY QUICKLY BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS
AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
BE MORE SW-WSW AS OPPOSED TO WNW-NW OBSERVED MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. MODELS SEEM WAY OVERDONE IN MY OPINION IN BRINGING
CLOUDS AND MEASURABLE QPF AS MUCH AS 0.10 INCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF LOW END VFR OR HIGH END
MVFR CIGS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY A DOWNSLOPE/DRYING SITUATION
AND EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME
NORTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
MID- LATE AFTERNOON EASTERN WV AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HAS MAINTAINED LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...CAUSING
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
WARM AIR BUILDING IN AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO NEAR
20 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE AS WELL...WITH WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING 15 MPH TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN
FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2
TO 5 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...NF/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311146
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
746 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER
THE CHICAGO AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAVE YET TO
RESPOND TO THE LOW`S INFLUENCE...AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...WITH
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 30S.

WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARM
AIR RIDING INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO
THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS
OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF OUR AREA CAN
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH. HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE GUSTS
REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. THAT STATED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER AN LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS.

OF GREATER CONCERN ARE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS SUCH AS LEAF
LITTER AND GRASSES...AND ANY FIRES MAY QUICKLY BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS
AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
BE MORE SW-WSW AS OPPOSED TO WNW-NW OBSERVED MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. MODELS SEEM WAY OVERDONE IN MY OPINION IN BRINGING
CLOUDS AND MEASURABLE QPF AS MUCH AS 0.10 INCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF LOW END VFR OR HIGH END
MVFR CIGS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY A DOWNSLOPE/DRYING SITUATION
AND EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME
NORTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
MID- LATE AFTERNOON EASTERN WV AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HAS MAINTAINED LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...CAUSING
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
WARM AIR BUILDING IN AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO NEAR
20 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE AS WELL...WITH WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING 15 MPH TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN
FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2
TO 5 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...NF/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 311146
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
746 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER
THE CHICAGO AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAVE YET TO
RESPOND TO THE LOW`S INFLUENCE...AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...WITH
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 30S.

WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARM
AIR RIDING INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO
THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS
OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF OUR AREA CAN
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH. HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE GUSTS
REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. THAT STATED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER AN LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS.

OF GREATER CONCERN ARE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS SUCH AS LEAF
LITTER AND GRASSES...AND ANY FIRES MAY QUICKLY BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS
AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
BE MORE SW-WSW AS OPPOSED TO WNW-NW OBSERVED MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. MODELS SEEM WAY OVERDONE IN MY OPINION IN BRINGING
CLOUDS AND MEASURABLE QPF AS MUCH AS 0.10 INCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF LOW END VFR OR HIGH END
MVFR CIGS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY A DOWNSLOPE/DRYING SITUATION
AND EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME
NORTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
MID- LATE AFTERNOON EASTERN WV AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HAS MAINTAINED LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...CAUSING
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
WARM AIR BUILDING IN AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO NEAR
20 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE AS WELL...WITH WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING 15 MPH TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN
FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2
TO 5 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...NF/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
557 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER
THE CHICAGO AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAVE YET TO
RESPOND TO THE LOW`S INFLUENCE...AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...WITH
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 30S.

WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARM
AIR RIDING INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO
THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS
OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF OUR AREA CAN
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH. HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE GUSTS
REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. THAT STATED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER AN LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS.

OF GREATER CONCERN ARE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS SUCH AS LEAF
LITTER AND GRASSES...AND ANY FIRES MAY QUICKLY BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HAS MAINTAINED LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...CAUSING
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
WARM AIR BUILDING IN AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO NEAR
20 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE AS WELL...WITH WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING 15 MPH TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN
FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2
TO 5 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/NF
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
557 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER
THE CHICAGO AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAVE YET TO
RESPOND TO THE LOW`S INFLUENCE...AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...WITH
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 30S.

WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARM
AIR RIDING INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO
THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS
OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF OUR AREA CAN
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH. HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE GUSTS
REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. THAT STATED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER AN LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS.

OF GREATER CONCERN ARE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS SUCH AS LEAF
LITTER AND GRASSES...AND ANY FIRES MAY QUICKLY BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HAS MAINTAINED LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...CAUSING
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
WARM AIR BUILDING IN AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO NEAR
20 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE AS WELL...WITH WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING 15 MPH TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN
FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2
TO 5 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/NF
FIRE WEATHER...NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310945
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
545 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER
THE CHICAGO AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAVE YET TO
RESPOND TO THE LOW`S INFLUENCE...AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...WITH
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 30S.

WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARM
AIR RIDING INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO
THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS
OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF OUR AREA CAN
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH. HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE GUSTS
REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. THAT STATED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER AN LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS.

OF GREATER CONCERN ARE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS SUCH AS LEAF
LITTER AND GRASSES...AND ANY FIRES MAY QUICKLY BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY
NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP AFTERNOON/EVENING MIXING TO JUST BELOW 10K FT ALLOWED
HUMIDITY TO AGAIN PLUMMET LATE MONDAY WITH 10 HOUR FUELS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 6-9 PERCENT IN VIRGINIA...AND 10-13 IN NORTH CAROLINA.
MOISTURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE
RIDGES LIKELY SEEING HUMIDITY STAY BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WHILE MAXING OUT IN THE 60-75 PERCENT RANGE ELSEWHERE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FINER FUELS WILL SEE RAPID
DRYING TAKE PLACE AS WINDS AND HEATING COMBINE WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF DEEPER MIXING. THIS MAY LOWER 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE TO CRITICAL
LEVELS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS
WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2-5 HOUR WINDOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310945
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
545 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER
THE CHICAGO AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAVE YET TO
RESPOND TO THE LOW`S INFLUENCE...AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...WITH
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 30S.

WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARM
AIR RIDING INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO
THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS
OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF OUR AREA CAN
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH. HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE GUSTS
REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. THAT STATED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER AN LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS.

OF GREATER CONCERN ARE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS SUCH AS LEAF
LITTER AND GRASSES...AND ANY FIRES MAY QUICKLY BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY
NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP AFTERNOON/EVENING MIXING TO JUST BELOW 10K FT ALLOWED
HUMIDITY TO AGAIN PLUMMET LATE MONDAY WITH 10 HOUR FUELS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 6-9 PERCENT IN VIRGINIA...AND 10-13 IN NORTH CAROLINA.
MOISTURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE
RIDGES LIKELY SEEING HUMIDITY STAY BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WHILE MAXING OUT IN THE 60-75 PERCENT RANGE ELSEWHERE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FINER FUELS WILL SEE RAPID
DRYING TAKE PLACE AS WINDS AND HEATING COMBINE WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF DEEPER MIXING. THIS MAY LOWER 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE TO CRITICAL
LEVELS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS
WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2-5 HOUR WINDOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310945
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
545 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER
THE CHICAGO AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAVE YET TO
RESPOND TO THE LOW`S INFLUENCE...AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...WITH
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 30S.

WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARM
AIR RIDING INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO
THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS
OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF OUR AREA CAN
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH. HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE GUSTS
REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. THAT STATED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER AN LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS.

OF GREATER CONCERN ARE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS SUCH AS LEAF
LITTER AND GRASSES...AND ANY FIRES MAY QUICKLY BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY
NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP AFTERNOON/EVENING MIXING TO JUST BELOW 10K FT ALLOWED
HUMIDITY TO AGAIN PLUMMET LATE MONDAY WITH 10 HOUR FUELS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 6-9 PERCENT IN VIRGINIA...AND 10-13 IN NORTH CAROLINA.
MOISTURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE
RIDGES LIKELY SEEING HUMIDITY STAY BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WHILE MAXING OUT IN THE 60-75 PERCENT RANGE ELSEWHERE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FINER FUELS WILL SEE RAPID
DRYING TAKE PLACE AS WINDS AND HEATING COMBINE WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF DEEPER MIXING. THIS MAY LOWER 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE TO CRITICAL
LEVELS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS
WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2-5 HOUR WINDOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310945
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
545 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER
THE CHICAGO AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAVE YET TO
RESPOND TO THE LOW`S INFLUENCE...AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...WITH
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 30S.

WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARM
AIR RIDING INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO
THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS
OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF OUR AREA CAN
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH. HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE GUSTS
REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. THAT STATED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER AN LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS.

OF GREATER CONCERN ARE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE TO
START THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS SUCH AS LEAF
LITTER AND GRASSES...AND ANY FIRES MAY QUICKLY BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME AS THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. WED SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AND THE BEST DAY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS DROP 4-5C FROM READINGS ON
TUE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 5C RANGE WHICH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BECOMES MESSY AND
COMPLICATED AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE. DESPITE THE COMPLICATIONS...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64...LATE THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-64 AWAITING THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TO KICK THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION THU...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY FRI/FRI NIGHT...FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH-EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SAT AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

SUPERBLEND POPS WERE WAY OVERDONE FOR THU. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
OFTEN EXHIBITS SUCH CHARACTERISTICS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH-WEST OF
THE REGION. THUS...REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THU FROM MODEL
ADVERTISED POPS...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS FAR
WESTERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA.

GIVEN THE REDUCED POPS FOR THU AND THE OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING...EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY...MOST MODELS ADVERTISE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT FALLS FAR
SHORT OF ANY SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

QPF IS ALSO MODEST...RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WEST TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH EAST THU-SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS
RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES.

AS NOTED ABOVE...WED SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THU-
FRI SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. AMPLE SUNSHINE
THU EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S THERE...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS THU-FRI APPEARED A LITTLE ON THE
COLD SIDE AND WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALSO FOR BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTH SUN-MON ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. BEYOND THIS...IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY
NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP AFTERNOON/EVENING MIXING TO JUST BELOW 10K FT ALLOWED
HUMIDITY TO AGAIN PLUMMET LATE MONDAY WITH 10 HOUR FUELS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 6-9 PERCENT IN VIRGINIA...AND 10-13 IN NORTH CAROLINA.
MOISTURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE
RIDGES LIKELY SEEING HUMIDITY STAY BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WHILE MAXING OUT IN THE 60-75 PERCENT RANGE ELSEWHERE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FINER FUELS WILL SEE RAPID
DRYING TAKE PLACE AS WINDS AND HEATING COMBINE WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF DEEPER MIXING. THIS MAY LOWER 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE TO CRITICAL
LEVELS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS
WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2-5 HOUR WINDOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310129
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
929 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 905 PM EDT MONDAY...

WINDS QUICKLY DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT LACK OF DEEPER MIXING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE SW. HOWEVER ALREADY SEEING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE WITH THE
UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM. THINK MUCH OF THIS SHOULD FADE UPON
ENCOUNTERING THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN ON EVENING SOUNDINGS SO
ONLY BOOSTED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH/WEST PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. OTRW GIVEN BETTER
DECOUPLING POTENTIAL IN THE VALLEYS...AND LESS ALOFT UNDER THE
BACKING 25-30 KT 85H JET...LOWERED TEMPS A CAT OR SO IN THE LOW
SPOTS AND BOOSTED CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES AT ELEVATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO
45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS
WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET
OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS
FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MTNS...WITH LESS EAST.


TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN
ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN
THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY
NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP AFTERNOON/EVENING MIXING TO JUST BELOW 10K FT ALLOWED
HUMIDITY TO AGAIN PLUMMET LATE MONDAY WITH 10 HOUR FUELS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 6-9 PERCENT IN VIRGINIA...AND 10-13 IN NORTH CAROLINA.
MOISTURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE
RIDGES LIKELY SEEING HUMIDITY STAY BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WHILE MAXING OUT IN THE 60-75 PERCENT RANGE ELSEWHERE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FINER FUELS WILL SEE RAPID
DRYING TAKE PLACE AS WINDS AND HEATING COMBINE WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF DEEPER MIXING. THIS MAY LOWER 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE TO CRITICAL
LEVELS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS
WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2-5 HOUR WINDOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310129
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
929 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 905 PM EDT MONDAY...

WINDS QUICKLY DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT LACK OF DEEPER MIXING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE SW. HOWEVER ALREADY SEEING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE WITH THE
UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM. THINK MUCH OF THIS SHOULD FADE UPON
ENCOUNTERING THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN ON EVENING SOUNDINGS SO
ONLY BOOSTED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH/WEST PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. OTRW GIVEN BETTER
DECOUPLING POTENTIAL IN THE VALLEYS...AND LESS ALOFT UNDER THE
BACKING 25-30 KT 85H JET...LOWERED TEMPS A CAT OR SO IN THE LOW
SPOTS AND BOOSTED CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES AT ELEVATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO
45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS
WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET
OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS
FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MTNS...WITH LESS EAST.


TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN
ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN
THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY
NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP AFTERNOON/EVENING MIXING TO JUST BELOW 10K FT ALLOWED
HUMIDITY TO AGAIN PLUMMET LATE MONDAY WITH 10 HOUR FUELS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 6-9 PERCENT IN VIRGINIA...AND 10-13 IN NORTH CAROLINA.
MOISTURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE
RIDGES LIKELY SEEING HUMIDITY STAY BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WHILE MAXING OUT IN THE 60-75 PERCENT RANGE ELSEWHERE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FINER FUELS WILL SEE RAPID
DRYING TAKE PLACE AS WINDS AND HEATING COMBINE WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF DEEPER MIXING. THIS MAY LOWER 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE TO CRITICAL
LEVELS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS
WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2-5 HOUR WINDOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302301
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO
45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS
WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET
OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS
FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MTNS...WITH LESS EAST.


TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN
ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN
THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY
NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FINE FUELS WILL BE
SLOWLY DRYING AND FUEL MOISTURE MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS
COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302301
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO
45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS
WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET
OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS
FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MTNS...WITH LESS EAST.


TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN
ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN
THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY
NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FINE FUELS WILL BE
SLOWLY DRYING AND FUEL MOISTURE MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS
COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 302301
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO
45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS
WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET
OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS
FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MTNS...WITH LESS EAST.


TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN
ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN
THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY
NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FINE FUELS WILL BE
SLOWLY DRYING AND FUEL MOISTURE MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS
COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302301
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO
45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS
WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET
OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS
FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MTNS...WITH LESS EAST.


TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN
ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN
THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY
NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FINE FUELS WILL BE
SLOWLY DRYING AND FUEL MOISTURE MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS
COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 302022
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO
45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS
WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET
OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS
FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MTNS...WITH LESS EAST.


TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN
ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN
THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...


A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FINE FUELS WILL BE
SLOWLY DRYING AND FUEL MOISTURE MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS
COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302022
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO
45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS
WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET
OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS
FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MTNS...WITH LESS EAST.


TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN
ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN
THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...


A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FINE FUELS WILL BE
SLOWLY DRYING AND FUEL MOISTURE MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS
COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302022
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO
45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS
WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET
OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS
FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MTNS...WITH LESS EAST.


TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN
ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN
THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...


A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FINE FUELS WILL BE
SLOWLY DRYING AND FUEL MOISTURE MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS
COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 302022
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO
45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS
WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH
SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET
OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS
FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MTNS...WITH LESS EAST.


TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN
ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN
THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...


A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FINE FUELS WILL BE
SLOWLY DRYING AND FUEL MOISTURE MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS
COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...KK/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301738
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
138 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS 1017 AM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND TRENDED LATE
MORNING TEMPERATURES INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. MODIFIED POPS AND WEATHER WITH LATEST WRS-88D RADAR
TRENDS AND BLEND OF HIRES-ARW AND HRRR. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER...


AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...


A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...KK/NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301738
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
138 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS 1017 AM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND TRENDED LATE
MORNING TEMPERATURES INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. MODIFIED POPS AND WEATHER WITH LATEST WRS-88D RADAR
TRENDS AND BLEND OF HIRES-ARW AND HRRR. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER...


AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...


A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...KK/NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301738
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
138 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS 1017 AM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND TRENDED LATE
MORNING TEMPERATURES INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. MODIFIED POPS AND WEATHER WITH LATEST WRS-88D RADAR
TRENDS AND BLEND OF HIRES-ARW AND HRRR. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER...


AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...


A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...KK/NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301738
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
138 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS 1017 AM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND TRENDED LATE
MORNING TEMPERATURES INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. MODIFIED POPS AND WEATHER WITH LATEST WRS-88D RADAR
TRENDS AND BLEND OF HIRES-ARW AND HRRR. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER...


AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...


A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...KK/NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301417
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1017 AM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND TRENDED LATE
MORNING TEMPERATURES INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. MODIFIED POPS AND WEATHER WITH LATEST WRS-88D RADAR
TRENDS AND BLEND OF HIRES-ARW AND HRRR. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER...


AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AN EKN-BLF-TRI LINE AT THIS HOUR. GUSTY
WEST WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE AT BLF...BUT TAKING A WHILE TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FRONT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY TO
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 15Z...WITH GUSTY W-WNW WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED -SHRA AND EVEN BRIEF -SHSN/SHPL
OBSERVED AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE VERY DRY
AIR...BUT THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL ENDED NOW...WITH EITHER -RA/-DZ
THE MAIN P-TYPE AT THIS HOUR. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS BEING VERIFIED BY
RADAR...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MID-MORNING AND A POSSIBLE BRIEF SURGE OF -SHRA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. QPF MOST AREAS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.01 INCH FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. CIGS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WV...LOW END VFR EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR IN BETWEEN...I.E...BCB. CLEARING/DRYING
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WILL BE QUICK AFTER MID-MORNING AS
DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP...WHILE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND IFR-MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL. VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AFT 00Z ALL SITES WITH JUST SCT 250. VFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THROUGH 15Z ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA OF MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ.
WINDS...BECOMING WNW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...KK/NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301417
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1017 AM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND TRENDED LATE
MORNING TEMPERATURES INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. MODIFIED POPS AND WEATHER WITH LATEST WRS-88D RADAR
TRENDS AND BLEND OF HIRES-ARW AND HRRR. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER...


AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AN EKN-BLF-TRI LINE AT THIS HOUR. GUSTY
WEST WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE AT BLF...BUT TAKING A WHILE TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FRONT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY TO
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 15Z...WITH GUSTY W-WNW WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED -SHRA AND EVEN BRIEF -SHSN/SHPL
OBSERVED AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE VERY DRY
AIR...BUT THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL ENDED NOW...WITH EITHER -RA/-DZ
THE MAIN P-TYPE AT THIS HOUR. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS BEING VERIFIED BY
RADAR...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MID-MORNING AND A POSSIBLE BRIEF SURGE OF -SHRA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. QPF MOST AREAS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.01 INCH FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. CIGS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WV...LOW END VFR EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR IN BETWEEN...I.E...BCB. CLEARING/DRYING
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WILL BE QUICK AFTER MID-MORNING AS
DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP...WHILE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND IFR-MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL. VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AFT 00Z ALL SITES WITH JUST SCT 250. VFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THROUGH 15Z ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA OF MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ.
WINDS...BECOMING WNW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...KK/NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AN EKN-BLF-TRI LINE AT THIS HOUR. GUSTY
WEST WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE AT BLF...BUT TAKING A WHILE TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FRONT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY TO
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 15Z...WITH GUSTY W-WNW WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED -SHRA AND EVEN BRIEF -SHSN/SHPL
OBSERVED AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE VERY DRY
AIR...BUT THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL ENDED NOW...WITH EITHER -RA/-DZ
THE MAIN P-TYPE AT THIS HOUR. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS BEING VERIFIED BY
RADAR...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MID-MORNING AND A POSSIBLE BRIEF SURGE OF -SHRA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. QPF MOST AREAS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.01 INCH FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. CIGS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WV...LOW END VFR EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR IN BETWEEN...I.E...BCB. CLEARING/DRYING
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WILL BE QUICK AFTER MID-MORNING AS
DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP...WHILE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND IFR-MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL. VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AFT 00Z ALL SITES WITH JUST SCT 250. VFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THROUGH 15Z ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA OF MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ.
WINDS...BECOMING WNW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 301136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AN EKN-BLF-TRI LINE AT THIS HOUR. GUSTY
WEST WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE AT BLF...BUT TAKING A WHILE TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FRONT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY TO
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 15Z...WITH GUSTY W-WNW WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED -SHRA AND EVEN BRIEF -SHSN/SHPL
OBSERVED AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE VERY DRY
AIR...BUT THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL ENDED NOW...WITH EITHER -RA/-DZ
THE MAIN P-TYPE AT THIS HOUR. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS BEING VERIFIED BY
RADAR...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MID-MORNING AND A POSSIBLE BRIEF SURGE OF -SHRA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. QPF MOST AREAS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.01 INCH FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. CIGS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WV...LOW END VFR EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR IN BETWEEN...I.E...BCB. CLEARING/DRYING
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WILL BE QUICK AFTER MID-MORNING AS
DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP...WHILE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND IFR-MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL. VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AFT 00Z ALL SITES WITH JUST SCT 250. VFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THROUGH 15Z ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA OF MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ.
WINDS...BECOMING WNW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AN EKN-BLF-TRI LINE AT THIS HOUR. GUSTY
WEST WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE AT BLF...BUT TAKING A WHILE TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FRONT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY TO
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 15Z...WITH GUSTY W-WNW WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED -SHRA AND EVEN BRIEF -SHSN/SHPL
OBSERVED AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE VERY DRY
AIR...BUT THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL ENDED NOW...WITH EITHER -RA/-DZ
THE MAIN P-TYPE AT THIS HOUR. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS BEING VERIFIED BY
RADAR...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MID-MORNING AND A POSSIBLE BRIEF SURGE OF -SHRA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. QPF MOST AREAS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.01 INCH FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. CIGS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WV...LOW END VFR EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR IN BETWEEN...I.E...BCB. CLEARING/DRYING
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WILL BE QUICK AFTER MID-MORNING AS
DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP...WHILE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND IFR-MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL. VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AFT 00Z ALL SITES WITH JUST SCT 250. VFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THROUGH 15Z ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA OF MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ.
WINDS...BECOMING WNW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...BACKING TO THE SW 5-8KTS AFT 00Z.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300818
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
418 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKLIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT STILL WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS VERY DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO EASTERN WV...BUT MAJORITY OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING CLOUDS AOA 120. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME LWB-BLF...NEAR BCB 12Z-
14Z...THEN LYH-DAN 13Z-15Z. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS ONLY RECOVERING
MARGINALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS...MOSTLY SPRINKLES TO
THE EAST. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR AT WORST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH A MIXTURE IN BETWEEN...I.E. BCB. UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/SW VA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IT SHOULD BECOME VFR WITH JUST SCT SC IN
THE 020-035 RANGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC/SCT250 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DURING
-SHRA TO MVFR POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AREAS...LWB-BLF-MKJ-TNB...THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WINDS SW-WSW 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z...THEN W-WNW
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
5KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...E.G. ROA.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300818
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
418 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKLIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT STILL WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS VERY DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO EASTERN WV...BUT MAJORITY OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING CLOUDS AOA 120. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME LWB-BLF...NEAR BCB 12Z-
14Z...THEN LYH-DAN 13Z-15Z. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS ONLY RECOVERING
MARGINALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS...MOSTLY SPRINKLES TO
THE EAST. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR AT WORST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH A MIXTURE IN BETWEEN...I.E. BCB. UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/SW VA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IT SHOULD BECOME VFR WITH JUST SCT SC IN
THE 020-035 RANGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC/SCT250 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DURING
-SHRA TO MVFR POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AREAS...LWB-BLF-MKJ-TNB...THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WINDS SW-WSW 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z...THEN W-WNW
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
5KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...E.G. ROA.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300818
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
418 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY W-NW WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STRONG...THE LACK OF
SFC-BASED MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...HENCE ROBBING THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO NOT HELP. FOLLOWED
CLOSELY THE HRRR/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN WV
DOWN TO NORTHWEST NC...WITH A TREND TOWARD ZERO POPS ALL AREAS BY
MID-DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER POPS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT MUCH...IF ANY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...THE LIKLIHOOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE
TREND TOWARD WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS...FALLING AS LIQUID.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SNOW PELLETS HERE AT BCB/RNK SUGGEST THAT
THE VERY DRY SFC AIR ALLOWED FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO
SUPPORT -SN/IP AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME 850MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C...THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.
UPSLOPE -SHSN/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED AT BEST WITH SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WNW-W...AS OPPOSED TO A BETTER NW
DIRECTION...ALONG WITH INTRUSION OF MORE VERY DRY AIR.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY...STOPPING JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF
30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE
WEST...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HAS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF PACIFIC-BASED AIR GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...FEW...IF ANY AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING TO START TUESDAY OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES IN A FEW AREAS.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO AID IN HEATING...
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY 70 OVER THE SOUTHSIDE...JUST BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING.

WILL SEE A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA...BRINGING
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER ONLY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LITTLE COLD AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN PLACE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG INTERSTATE 64...TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THAT RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD DAWN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-KY LINE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST
PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY
EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT STILL WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS VERY DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO EASTERN WV...BUT MAJORITY OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING CLOUDS AOA 120. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME LWB-BLF...NEAR BCB 12Z-
14Z...THEN LYH-DAN 13Z-15Z. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS ONLY RECOVERING
MARGINALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS...MOSTLY SPRINKLES TO
THE EAST. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR AT WORST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH A MIXTURE IN BETWEEN...I.E. BCB. UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/SW VA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IT SHOULD BECOME VFR WITH JUST SCT SC IN
THE 020-035 RANGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC/SCT250 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DURING
-SHRA TO MVFR POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AREAS...LWB-BLF-MKJ-TNB...THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WINDS SW-WSW 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z...THEN W-WNW
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
5KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...E.G. ROA.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300624
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
224 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

AREA OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...BUT IS
CONSISTENTLY PROGGED AMONG THE MODELS TO REACH THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12F
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...20S/30S TO THE WEST. HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF ANY OF THE RAIN REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AT LEAST MEASURABLE...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND REMOVED LIKELY POPS FROM THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
P-TYPE ALL RAIN SO FAR TO THE WEST. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY RISE AS MID-LOW CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD REDUCE THE
THREAT OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION. ALBEIT...THE GROUND SURFACES
ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF VERY DRY AIR STILL OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEEN VIA THE LINGERING LOW
PWAT AND MID LEVEL DRYNESS SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AS
WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE PER LATEST OBS.
MOST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES-ARW DO BRING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE FAR NW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WORKING DOWN THE
WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE NW NC RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWER BAND
MAY THEN TEND TO JUMP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE OR EARLY MONDAY
BUT IFFY GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN OFF EVENING RAOBS.

SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER...SLOWED DOWN POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WHILE
INCREASING SOME OVER THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE RUNNING WITH
BRIEF CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR LOW QPF. LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS OUT EAST
AS WELL BUT DOUBTFUL AS TO HOW FAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR AND TEMPS COOLING
INTO THE 30S COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF SLEET WEST AT THE ONSET SO ADDED
WHILE KEEPING THE SNOW MENTION AT ELEVATION ACROSS THE NW WHERE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTRW LOWERED TEMPS EARLY OVER THE
WEST FOR SOME WET BULB COOLING AT THE ONSET BEFORE READINGS RISE
LATE AS MIXING PICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT STILL WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS VERY DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO EASTERN WV...BUT MAJORITY OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING CLOUDS AOA 120. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME LWB-BLF...NEAR BCB 12Z-
14Z...THEN LYH-DAN 13Z-15Z. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS ONLY RECOVERING
MARGINALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS...MOSTLY SPRINKLES TO
THE EAST. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR AT WORST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH A MIXTURE IN BETWEEN...I.E. BCB. UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/SW VA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IT SHOULD BECOME VFR WITH JUST SCT SC IN
THE 020-035 RANGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC/SCT250 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DURING
-SHRA TO MVFR POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AREAS...LWB-BLF-MKJ-TNB...THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WINDS SW-WSW 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z...THEN W-WNW
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
5KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...E.G. ROA.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300624
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
224 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

AREA OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...BUT IS
CONSISTENTLY PROGGED AMONG THE MODELS TO REACH THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12F
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...20S/30S TO THE WEST. HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF ANY OF THE RAIN REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AT LEAST MEASURABLE...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND REMOVED LIKELY POPS FROM THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
P-TYPE ALL RAIN SO FAR TO THE WEST. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY RISE AS MID-LOW CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD REDUCE THE
THREAT OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION. ALBEIT...THE GROUND SURFACES
ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF VERY DRY AIR STILL OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEEN VIA THE LINGERING LOW
PWAT AND MID LEVEL DRYNESS SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AS
WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE PER LATEST OBS.
MOST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES-ARW DO BRING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE FAR NW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WORKING DOWN THE
WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE NW NC RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWER BAND
MAY THEN TEND TO JUMP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE OR EARLY MONDAY
BUT IFFY GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN OFF EVENING RAOBS.

SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER...SLOWED DOWN POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WHILE
INCREASING SOME OVER THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE RUNNING WITH
BRIEF CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR LOW QPF. LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS OUT EAST
AS WELL BUT DOUBTFUL AS TO HOW FAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR AND TEMPS COOLING
INTO THE 30S COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF SLEET WEST AT THE ONSET SO ADDED
WHILE KEEPING THE SNOW MENTION AT ELEVATION ACROSS THE NW WHERE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTRW LOWERED TEMPS EARLY OVER THE
WEST FOR SOME WET BULB COOLING AT THE ONSET BEFORE READINGS RISE
LATE AS MIXING PICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT STILL WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS VERY DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO EASTERN WV...BUT MAJORITY OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING CLOUDS AOA 120. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME LWB-BLF...NEAR BCB 12Z-
14Z...THEN LYH-DAN 13Z-15Z. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS ONLY RECOVERING
MARGINALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS...MOSTLY SPRINKLES TO
THE EAST. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR AT WORST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH A MIXTURE IN BETWEEN...I.E. BCB. UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/SW VA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IT SHOULD BECOME VFR WITH JUST SCT SC IN
THE 020-035 RANGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC/SCT250 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DURING
-SHRA TO MVFR POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AREAS...LWB-BLF-MKJ-TNB...THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WINDS SW-WSW 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z...THEN W-WNW
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
5KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...E.G. ROA.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300624
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
224 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

AREA OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...BUT IS
CONSISTENTLY PROGGED AMONG THE MODELS TO REACH THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12F
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...20S/30S TO THE WEST. HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF ANY OF THE RAIN REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AT LEAST MEASURABLE...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND REMOVED LIKELY POPS FROM THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
P-TYPE ALL RAIN SO FAR TO THE WEST. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY RISE AS MID-LOW CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD REDUCE THE
THREAT OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION. ALBEIT...THE GROUND SURFACES
ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF VERY DRY AIR STILL OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEEN VIA THE LINGERING LOW
PWAT AND MID LEVEL DRYNESS SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AS
WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE PER LATEST OBS.
MOST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES-ARW DO BRING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE FAR NW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WORKING DOWN THE
WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE NW NC RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWER BAND
MAY THEN TEND TO JUMP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE OR EARLY MONDAY
BUT IFFY GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN OFF EVENING RAOBS.

SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER...SLOWED DOWN POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WHILE
INCREASING SOME OVER THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE RUNNING WITH
BRIEF CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR LOW QPF. LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS OUT EAST
AS WELL BUT DOUBTFUL AS TO HOW FAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR AND TEMPS COOLING
INTO THE 30S COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF SLEET WEST AT THE ONSET SO ADDED
WHILE KEEPING THE SNOW MENTION AT ELEVATION ACROSS THE NW WHERE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTRW LOWERED TEMPS EARLY OVER THE
WEST FOR SOME WET BULB COOLING AT THE ONSET BEFORE READINGS RISE
LATE AS MIXING PICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT STILL WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS VERY DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO EASTERN WV...BUT MAJORITY OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING CLOUDS AOA 120. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME LWB-BLF...NEAR BCB 12Z-
14Z...THEN LYH-DAN 13Z-15Z. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS ONLY RECOVERING
MARGINALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS...MOSTLY SPRINKLES TO
THE EAST. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR AT WORST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH A MIXTURE IN BETWEEN...I.E. BCB. UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/SW VA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IT SHOULD BECOME VFR WITH JUST SCT SC IN
THE 020-035 RANGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC/SCT250 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DURING
-SHRA TO MVFR POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AREAS...LWB-BLF-MKJ-TNB...THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WINDS SW-WSW 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z...THEN W-WNW
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
5KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...E.G. ROA.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300624
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
224 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

AREA OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...BUT IS
CONSISTENTLY PROGGED AMONG THE MODELS TO REACH THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12F
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...20S/30S TO THE WEST. HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF ANY OF THE RAIN REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AT LEAST MEASURABLE...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND REMOVED LIKELY POPS FROM THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
P-TYPE ALL RAIN SO FAR TO THE WEST. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY RISE AS MID-LOW CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD REDUCE THE
THREAT OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION. ALBEIT...THE GROUND SURFACES
ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF VERY DRY AIR STILL OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEEN VIA THE LINGERING LOW
PWAT AND MID LEVEL DRYNESS SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AS
WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE PER LATEST OBS.
MOST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES-ARW DO BRING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE FAR NW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WORKING DOWN THE
WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE NW NC RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWER BAND
MAY THEN TEND TO JUMP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE OR EARLY MONDAY
BUT IFFY GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN OFF EVENING RAOBS.

SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER...SLOWED DOWN POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WHILE
INCREASING SOME OVER THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE RUNNING WITH
BRIEF CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR LOW QPF. LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS OUT EAST
AS WELL BUT DOUBTFUL AS TO HOW FAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR AND TEMPS COOLING
INTO THE 30S COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF SLEET WEST AT THE ONSET SO ADDED
WHILE KEEPING THE SNOW MENTION AT ELEVATION ACROSS THE NW WHERE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTRW LOWERED TEMPS EARLY OVER THE
WEST FOR SOME WET BULB COOLING AT THE ONSET BEFORE READINGS RISE
LATE AS MIXING PICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

FRONT STILL WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS VERY DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO EASTERN WV...BUT MAJORITY OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING CLOUDS AOA 120. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME LWB-BLF...NEAR BCB 12Z-
14Z...THEN LYH-DAN 13Z-15Z. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS ONLY RECOVERING
MARGINALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS...MOSTLY SPRINKLES TO
THE EAST. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR AT WORST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH A MIXTURE IN BETWEEN...I.E. BCB. UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/SW VA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IT SHOULD BECOME VFR WITH JUST SCT SC IN
THE 020-035 RANGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC/SCT250 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DURING
-SHRA TO MVFR POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AREAS...LWB-BLF-MKJ-TNB...THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WINDS SW-WSW 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z...THEN W-WNW
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
5KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...E.G. ROA.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300112
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
912 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF VERY DRY AIR STILL OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEEN VIA THE LINGERING LOW
PWAT AND MID LEVEL DRYNESS SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AS
WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE PER LATEST OBS.
MOST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES-ARW DO BRING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE FAR NW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WORKING DOWN THE
WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE NW NC RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWER BAND
MAY THEN TEND TO JUMP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE OR EARLY MONDAY
BUT IFFY GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN OFF EVENING RAOBS.

SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER...SLOWED DOWN POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WHILE
INCREASING SOME OVER THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE RUNNING WITH
BRIEF CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR LOW QPF. LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS OUT EAST
AS WELL BUT DOUBTFUL AS TO HOW FAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR AND TEMPS COOLING
INTO THE 30S COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF SLEET WEST AT THE ONSET SO ADDED
WHILE KEEPING THE SNOW MENTION AT ELEVATION ACROSS THE NW WHERE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTRW LOWERED TEMPS EARLY OVER THE
WEST FOR SOME WET BULB COOLING AT THE ONSET BEFORE READINGS RISE
LATE AS MIXING PICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO LOCATIONS FROM KBCB WESTWARD INTO SE
WEST VA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KROA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. LIGHT RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO LOW END VFR AT TIMES BY
EARLY MONDAY WITH OCNL MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THE
ONSET BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEST.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300112
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
912 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF VERY DRY AIR STILL OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEEN VIA THE LINGERING LOW
PWAT AND MID LEVEL DRYNESS SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AS
WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE PER LATEST OBS.
MOST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES-ARW DO BRING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE FAR NW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WORKING DOWN THE
WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE NW NC RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWER BAND
MAY THEN TEND TO JUMP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE OR EARLY MONDAY
BUT IFFY GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN OFF EVENING RAOBS.

SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER...SLOWED DOWN POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WHILE
INCREASING SOME OVER THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE RUNNING WITH
BRIEF CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR LOW QPF. LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS OUT EAST
AS WELL BUT DOUBTFUL AS TO HOW FAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR AND TEMPS COOLING
INTO THE 30S COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF SLEET WEST AT THE ONSET SO ADDED
WHILE KEEPING THE SNOW MENTION AT ELEVATION ACROSS THE NW WHERE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTRW LOWERED TEMPS EARLY OVER THE
WEST FOR SOME WET BULB COOLING AT THE ONSET BEFORE READINGS RISE
LATE AS MIXING PICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO LOCATIONS FROM KBCB WESTWARD INTO SE
WEST VA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KROA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. LIGHT RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO LOW END VFR AT TIMES BY
EARLY MONDAY WITH OCNL MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THE
ONSET BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEST.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300112
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
912 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF VERY DRY AIR STILL OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEEN VIA THE LINGERING LOW
PWAT AND MID LEVEL DRYNESS SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AS
WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE PER LATEST OBS.
MOST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES-ARW DO BRING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE FAR NW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WORKING DOWN THE
WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE NW NC RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWER BAND
MAY THEN TEND TO JUMP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE OR EARLY MONDAY
BUT IFFY GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN OFF EVENING RAOBS.

SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER...SLOWED DOWN POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WHILE
INCREASING SOME OVER THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE RUNNING WITH
BRIEF CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR LOW QPF. LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS OUT EAST
AS WELL BUT DOUBTFUL AS TO HOW FAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR AND TEMPS COOLING
INTO THE 30S COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF SLEET WEST AT THE ONSET SO ADDED
WHILE KEEPING THE SNOW MENTION AT ELEVATION ACROSS THE NW WHERE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTRW LOWERED TEMPS EARLY OVER THE
WEST FOR SOME WET BULB COOLING AT THE ONSET BEFORE READINGS RISE
LATE AS MIXING PICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO LOCATIONS FROM KBCB WESTWARD INTO SE
WEST VA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KROA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. LIGHT RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO LOW END VFR AT TIMES BY
EARLY MONDAY WITH OCNL MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THE
ONSET BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEST.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 300112
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
912 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF VERY DRY AIR STILL OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEEN VIA THE LINGERING LOW
PWAT AND MID LEVEL DRYNESS SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AS
WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE PER LATEST OBS.
MOST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES-ARW DO BRING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE FAR NW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WORKING DOWN THE
WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE NW NC RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWER BAND
MAY THEN TEND TO JUMP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE OR EARLY MONDAY
BUT IFFY GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN OFF EVENING RAOBS.

SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER...SLOWED DOWN POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WHILE
INCREASING SOME OVER THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE RUNNING WITH
BRIEF CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR LOW QPF. LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS OUT EAST
AS WELL BUT DOUBTFUL AS TO HOW FAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR AND TEMPS COOLING
INTO THE 30S COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF SLEET WEST AT THE ONSET SO ADDED
WHILE KEEPING THE SNOW MENTION AT ELEVATION ACROSS THE NW WHERE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTRW LOWERED TEMPS EARLY OVER THE
WEST FOR SOME WET BULB COOLING AT THE ONSET BEFORE READINGS RISE
LATE AS MIXING PICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO LOCATIONS FROM KBCB WESTWARD INTO SE
WEST VA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KROA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. LIGHT RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO LOW END VFR AT TIMES BY
EARLY MONDAY WITH OCNL MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THE
ONSET BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEST.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292315
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. A
SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO LOCATIONS FROM KBCB WESTWARD INTO SE
WEST VA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KROA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. LIGHT RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO LOW END VFR AT TIMES BY
EARLY MONDAY WITH OCNL MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THE
ONSET BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEST.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 292315
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. A
SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO LOCATIONS FROM KBCB WESTWARD INTO SE
WEST VA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KROA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. LIGHT RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO LOW END VFR AT TIMES BY
EARLY MONDAY WITH OCNL MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THE
ONSET BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEST.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292315
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. A
SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO LOCATIONS FROM KBCB WESTWARD INTO SE
WEST VA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KROA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. LIGHT RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO LOW END VFR AT TIMES BY
EARLY MONDAY WITH OCNL MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THE
ONSET BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEST.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 292315
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. A
SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO LOCATIONS FROM KBCB WESTWARD INTO SE
WEST VA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KROA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. LIGHT RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO LOW END VFR AT TIMES BY
EARLY MONDAY WITH OCNL MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THE
ONSET BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEST.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291929
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. A
SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291929
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. A
SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291929
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. A
SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291929
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. A
SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.

WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291747
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IT IS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION. RER OUT WITH RECORD
LOWS THAT WERE BROKEN OR TIED THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LEANED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LAV VALUES FOR LATE MORNING. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291747
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IT IS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION. RER OUT WITH RECORD
LOWS THAT WERE BROKEN OR TIED THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LEANED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LAV VALUES FOR LATE MORNING. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291747
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IT IS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION. RER OUT WITH RECORD
LOWS THAT WERE BROKEN OR TIED THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LEANED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LAV VALUES FOR LATE MORNING. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS .

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291311
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IT IS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION. RER OUT WITH RECORD
LOWS THAT WERE BROKEN OR TIED THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LEANED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LAV VALUES FOR LATE MORNING. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291311
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IT IS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION. RER OUT WITH RECORD
LOWS THAT WERE BROKEN OR TIED THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LEANED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LAV VALUES FOR LATE MORNING. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291311
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IT IS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION. RER OUT WITH RECORD
LOWS THAT WERE BROKEN OR TIED THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LEANED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LAV VALUES FOR LATE MORNING. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 291311
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IT IS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION. RER OUT WITH RECORD
LOWS THAT WERE BROKEN OR TIED THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LEANED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LAV VALUES FOR LATE MORNING. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK





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