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000
FXUS61 KRNK 231734
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
134 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY...AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE PIEDMONT
AND ADDED SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SRN CWA SOUTH OF
DANBURY AND YANCEYVILLE PER RADAR LOOP...THOUGH ECHOES NOT REALLY
ACCOUNTING FOR SFC REPORTS...EXCEPT SPRINKLES. MOST IS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ENE FLOW WILL HAVE COOLER HIGHS IN
THE SOUTHEAST...SO MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WHERE PLACES LIKE
DANVILLE AND REIDSVILLE ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE FAR SW VA AREAS
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS
INDICATED THIS LOW WILL FILL SLIGHTLY AND DRIFT NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RESPOND MORE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT NET RESULT OF UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN WILL
BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WILL BE GREATLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH
TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE MOUNTAINS. STAYED CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WEDGING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP SPAWN A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THESE THREE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT WITH EACH TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. COMPLICATING THE ISSUE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DIRECT THE
UPPER LEVEL AND THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD IN TANDEM. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THESE LOWS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW CLEARING THE AREA OUT OF RAIN. THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN
THESE LOWS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST...WITH A
POSSIBLE QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ OF RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOW BRING MORE RAIN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THEREFORE INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO DRYING
THE REGION OUT ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COOL
BUT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IF RAIN FALLS EARLY IN THE DAY.
TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEDGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT. GUIDANCE IS WARMING THE AREA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP...WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES.

THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP THIS FAR INLAND. BUT
WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE
CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH RETARDS THE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN.

TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRIDS SHOWING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT TUESDAY...

NO SUB VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT A MID-HIGH DECK OF VFR CIGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING ROA/BCB.

THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO MOVE TOWARD DAN AFTER
DARK...BUT MORE SO TOWARD DAWN. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BUT BEST MOISTURE/RAIN STAYS WELL EAST OF US TOWARD THE COAST.

ISSUE LATE TONIGHT IN THE WEST COULD BE FOG AGAIN...THOUGH WRN
EXTENT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD CAUSE VSBYS TO STAY VFR. WENT
PESSIMISTIC AT LWB THINKING ANY HIGH CLOUDS WILL STAY THIN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOG FORMATION. ENOUGH MIXING THOUGH AT BLF SHOULD KEEP
THEM FROM FOGGING IN...WHILE BCB CAN EXPECT TO BE MAINLY VFR BUT
THROUGH IN A TEMPO FOR 5SM BR.

LIGHT RAINFALL WILL EDGE NW TOWARD DAN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WHERE CIGS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR AROUND 3KFT.

THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO WED AFTERNOON AND THINK MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN COULD BE AS FAR WEST AS ROANOKE BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT
MORE LIKELY AT DAN/LYH.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN RE-
ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231734
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
134 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY...AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE PIEDMONT
AND ADDED SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SRN CWA SOUTH OF
DANBURY AND YANCEYVILLE PER RADAR LOOP...THOUGH ECHOES NOT REALLY
ACCOUNTING FOR SFC REPORTS...EXCEPT SPRINKLES. MOST IS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ENE FLOW WILL HAVE COOLER HIGHS IN
THE SOUTHEAST...SO MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WHERE PLACES LIKE
DANVILLE AND REIDSVILLE ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE FAR SW VA AREAS
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS
INDICATED THIS LOW WILL FILL SLIGHTLY AND DRIFT NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RESPOND MORE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT NET RESULT OF UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN WILL
BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WILL BE GREATLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH
TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE MOUNTAINS. STAYED CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WEDGING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP SPAWN A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THESE THREE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT WITH EACH TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. COMPLICATING THE ISSUE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DIRECT THE
UPPER LEVEL AND THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD IN TANDEM. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THESE LOWS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW CLEARING THE AREA OUT OF RAIN. THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN
THESE LOWS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST...WITH A
POSSIBLE QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ OF RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOW BRING MORE RAIN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THEREFORE INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO DRYING
THE REGION OUT ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COOL
BUT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IF RAIN FALLS EARLY IN THE DAY.
TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEDGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT. GUIDANCE IS WARMING THE AREA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP...WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES.

THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP THIS FAR INLAND. BUT
WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE
CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH RETARDS THE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN.

TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRIDS SHOWING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT TUESDAY...

NO SUB VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT A MID-HIGH DECK OF VFR CIGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING ROA/BCB.

THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO MOVE TOWARD DAN AFTER
DARK...BUT MORE SO TOWARD DAWN. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BUT BEST MOISTURE/RAIN STAYS WELL EAST OF US TOWARD THE COAST.

ISSUE LATE TONIGHT IN THE WEST COULD BE FOG AGAIN...THOUGH WRN
EXTENT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD CAUSE VSBYS TO STAY VFR. WENT
PESSIMISTIC AT LWB THINKING ANY HIGH CLOUDS WILL STAY THIN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOG FORMATION. ENOUGH MIXING THOUGH AT BLF SHOULD KEEP
THEM FROM FOGGING IN...WHILE BCB CAN EXPECT TO BE MAINLY VFR BUT
THROUGH IN A TEMPO FOR 5SM BR.

LIGHT RAINFALL WILL EDGE NW TOWARD DAN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WHERE CIGS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR AROUND 3KFT.

THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO WED AFTERNOON AND THINK MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN COULD BE AS FAR WEST AS ROANOKE BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT
MORE LIKELY AT DAN/LYH.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN RE-
ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 231653
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1253 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY...AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE PIEDMONT
AND ADDED SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SRN CWA SOUTH OF
DANBURY AND YANCEYVILLE PER RADAR LOOP...THOUGH ECHOES NOT REALLY
ACCOUNTING FOR SFC REPORTS...EXCEPT SPRINKLES. MOST IS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ENE FLOW WILL HAVE COOLER HIGHS IN
THE SOUTHEAST...SO MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WHERE PLACES LIKE
DANVILLE AND REIDSVILLE ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE FAR SW VA AREAS
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS
INDICATED THIS LOW WILL FILL SLIGHTLY AND DRIFT NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RESPOND MORE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT NET RESULT OF UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN WILL
BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WILL BE GREATLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH
TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE MOUNTAINS. STAYED CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WEDGING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP SPAWN A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THESE THREE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT WITH EACH TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. COMPLICATING THE ISSUE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DIRECT THE
UPPER LEVEL AND THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD IN TANDEM. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THESE LOWS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW CLEARING THE AREA OUT OF RAIN. THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN
THESE LOWS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST...WITH A
POSSIBLE QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ OF RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOW BRING MORE RAIN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THEREFORE INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO DRYING
THE REGION OUT ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COOL
BUT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IF RAIN FALLS EARLY IN THE DAY.
TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEDGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT. GUIDANCE IS WARMING THE AREA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP...WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES.

THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP THIS FAR INLAND. BUT
WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE
CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH RETARDS THE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN.

TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRIDS SHOWING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

DENSE FOG ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING WHERE IT STAYED CLEAR OVERNIGHT SO IFR FOG AT KLWB AND
KBLF. EXPECT FOG TO MIX OUT BY 14Z/10AM. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
REGION WAS UNDER A COVER OF HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THE FOG MIXES
OUT...LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS TO THE AREA. BUT EVEN BY 12Z/8AM ON WEDNESDAY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL BE VFR.

EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE FATHER WEST TONIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUD COVER WILL REACH KBLF THIS EVENING AND
PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT KBLF. EXPECT KLWB TO REMAIN CLOUD FREE
LONG ENOUGH THAT ONCE AGAIN LIFR FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231133
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM ILLINOIS TO NEW YORK THIS MORNING.
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY...AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS
INDICATED THIS LOW WILL FILL SLIGHTLY AND DRIFT NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE EAST SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RESPOND MORE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT.

EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING
WITH THE WESTERN EDGE CLOSE TO THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NET RESULT OF UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WILL BE GREATLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE
MOUNTAINS. STAYED CLOSER TO BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WEDGING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP SPAWN A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THESE THREE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT WITH EACH TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. COMPLICATING THE ISSUE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DIRECT THE
UPPER LEVEL AND THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD IN TANDEM. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THESE LOWS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW CLEARING THE AREA OUT OF RAIN. THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN
THESE LOWS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST...WITH A
POSSIBLE QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ OF RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOW BRING MORE RAIN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THEREFORE INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO DRYING
THE REGION OUT ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COOL
BUT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IF RAIN FALLS EARLY IN THE DAY.
TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEDGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT. GUIDANCE IS WARMING THE AREA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP...WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES.

THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP THIS FAR INLAND. BUT
WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE
CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH RETARDS THE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN.

TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRIDS SHOWING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

DENSE FOG ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING WHERE IT STAYED CLEAR OVERNIGHT SO IFR FOG AT KLWB AND
KBLF. EXPECT FOG TO MIX OUT BY 14Z/10AM. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
REGION WAS UNDER A COVER OF HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THE FOG MIXES
OUT...LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS TO THE AREA. BUT EVEN BY 12Z/8AM ON WEDNESDAY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL BE VFR.

EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE FATHER WEST TONIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUD COVER WILL REACH KBLF THIS EVENING AND
PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT KBLF. EXPECT KLWB TO REMAIN CLOUD FREE
LONG ENOUGH THAT ONCE AGAIN LIFR FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231133
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM ILLINOIS TO NEW YORK THIS MORNING.
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY...AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS
INDICATED THIS LOW WILL FILL SLIGHTLY AND DRIFT NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE EAST SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RESPOND MORE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT.

EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING
WITH THE WESTERN EDGE CLOSE TO THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NET RESULT OF UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WILL BE GREATLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE
MOUNTAINS. STAYED CLOSER TO BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WEDGING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP SPAWN A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THESE THREE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT WITH EACH TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. COMPLICATING THE ISSUE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DIRECT THE
UPPER LEVEL AND THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD IN TANDEM. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THESE LOWS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW CLEARING THE AREA OUT OF RAIN. THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN
THESE LOWS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST...WITH A
POSSIBLE QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ OF RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOW BRING MORE RAIN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THEREFORE INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO DRYING
THE REGION OUT ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COOL
BUT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IF RAIN FALLS EARLY IN THE DAY.
TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEDGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT. GUIDANCE IS WARMING THE AREA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP...WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES.

THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP THIS FAR INLAND. BUT
WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE
CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH RETARDS THE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN.

TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRIDS SHOWING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

DENSE FOG ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING WHERE IT STAYED CLEAR OVERNIGHT SO IFR FOG AT KLWB AND
KBLF. EXPECT FOG TO MIX OUT BY 14Z/10AM. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
REGION WAS UNDER A COVER OF HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THE FOG MIXES
OUT...LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS TO THE AREA. BUT EVEN BY 12Z/8AM ON WEDNESDAY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL BE VFR.

EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE FATHER WEST TONIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUD COVER WILL REACH KBLF THIS EVENING AND
PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT KBLF. EXPECT KLWB TO REMAIN CLOUD FREE
LONG ENOUGH THAT ONCE AGAIN LIFR FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230803
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM ILLINOIS TO NEW YORK THIS MORNING.
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY...AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS
INDICATED THIS LOW WILL FILL SLIGHTLY AND DRIFT NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE EAST SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RESPOND MORE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT.

EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING
WITH THE WESTERN EDGE CLOSE TO THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NET RESULT OF UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WILL BE GREATLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE
MOUNTAINS. STAYED CLOSER TO BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WEDGING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP SPAWN A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THESE THREE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT WITH EACH TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. COMPLICATING THE ISSUE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DIRECT THE
UPPER LEVEL AND THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD IN TANDEM. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THESE LOWS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW CLEARING THE AREA OUT OF RAIN. THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN
THESE LOWS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST...WITH A
POSSIBLE QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ OF RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOW BRING MORE RAIN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THEREFORE INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO DRYING
THE REGION OUT ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COOL
BUT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IF RAIN FALLS EARLY IN THE DAY.
TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEDGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT. GUIDANCE IS WARMING THE AREA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP...WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES.

THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP THIS FAR INLAND. BUT
WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE
CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH RETARDS THE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN.

TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRIDS SHOWING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KROA/KLYH/KBLF
AND KDAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY RIVER BOTTOM FOG.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KBCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT
AROUND DAWN. BY 14Z/10AM TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230803
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM ILLINOIS TO NEW YORK THIS MORNING.
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY...AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS
INDICATED THIS LOW WILL FILL SLIGHTLY AND DRIFT NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE EAST SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RESPOND MORE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT.

EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING
WITH THE WESTERN EDGE CLOSE TO THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER.
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NET RESULT OF UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WILL BE GREATLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE
MOUNTAINS. STAYED CLOSER TO BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WEDGING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP SPAWN A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THESE THREE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT WITH EACH TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. COMPLICATING THE ISSUE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DIRECT THE
UPPER LEVEL AND THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD IN TANDEM. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THESE LOWS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW CLEARING THE AREA OUT OF RAIN. THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN
THESE LOWS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST...WITH A
POSSIBLE QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ OF RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOW BRING MORE RAIN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THEREFORE INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO DRYING
THE REGION OUT ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COOL
BUT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IF RAIN FALLS EARLY IN THE DAY.
TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEDGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT. GUIDANCE IS WARMING THE AREA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP...WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES.

THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP THIS FAR INLAND. BUT
WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE
CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH RETARDS THE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN.

TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRIDS SHOWING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KROA/KLYH/KBLF
AND KDAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY RIVER BOTTOM FOG.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KBCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT
AROUND DAWN. BY 14Z/10AM TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230528
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
SLOWLY FADING WHILE PERSISTENT AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SHEAR NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ATTM.
MOST GUIDANCE HUMIDITY FIELDS KEEP THIS CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS AT
LEAST OVER THE EAST THROUGH MORNING WITH THE GFS EVEN BENDING BACK
WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF 5H SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER APPEARS GIVEN VERY DRY AIR OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS
THAT MOST CIRRUS OUTSIDE OF THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY THIN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS IN
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. LATEST LAV MOS SIMILAR TO EARLIER
FORECAST LOWS SO ONLY MAKING SMALL ADJUSTS...MAINLY TO LOWER A BIT IN
A FEW MORE OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS WHERE EARLIER COOP MOS WAS THE
COLDEST. ALSO ADDED A BIT MORE DEEP VALLEY FROST BUT GIVEN WARM GROUND
TEMPS/VEGETATION AND FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS ANY FROST VERY BRIEF
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. ALSO GIVEN CURRENT
WIDE TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD IN SPOTS...SLOWING DOWN FOG FORMATION A
WHILE LONGER TO MOSTLY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR NOW. OTRW
CALLING IT CLEAR TO PC THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS 37-44 FAR
WEST...LOW/MID 40S BLUE RIDGE...AND LOW 50S SE WHERE MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD NEGATE COOLING TO SOME DEGREE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT AT THE SAME
TIME AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
CLOSES OFF...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP AND SEND SOME
CIRRUS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON DENSITY OF THE CIRRUS...BUT THINK THE SKY WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS...AS WINDS
DECOUPLE...AND SKY IN THE WEST TO BE CLEAR. THINK TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF BATH AND
GREENBRIER WITH MOST STAYING ABOVE 37F. PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEYS
APPEARS POSSIBLE SO HIGHLIGHT BATH AND GREENBRIER IN THE HWO FOR
PATCHY FROST. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY BUT
EVENING SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TRENDS IN
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY IN CASE THREAT OF MORE FROST INCREASES.

NONETHELESS THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD SINCE LATE MAY...WITH
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOUNTAINS...TO MID 40S-50 EAST.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...AND MAINLY KEEPING A STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUDS SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGH WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...

STILL LOOKING DRY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN
TERMS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
SPREADS WEST FROM THE EAST FLOW AROUND THE WEDGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS AND THE 12Z NAM IS COMING INTO THIS
TREND AS WELL...WITH THE GFS STILL DRIER. THINK THE DRY LOW LVLS
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP BUT LATE WED NIGHT-THU SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE NE/MID ATLANTIC AND A COASTAL
TROUGH/FRONT/LOW TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. THE WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THURSDAY...THAN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...THEN WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S WHERE ITS CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES...WITH LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS THE FAR SW VA CORRIDOR HEADING WEST OF MARION AND
TAZEWELL.

LOWS WILL ALSO MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL COOL WED
MORNING WITH LOWER 40S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES.

THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP THIS FAR INLAND. BUT
WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE
CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH RETARDS THE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN.

TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRIDS SHOWING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KROA/KLYH/KBLF
AND KDAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY RIVER BOTTOM FOG.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KBCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT
AROUND DAWN. BY 14Z/10AM TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230528
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
SLOWLY FADING WHILE PERSISTENT AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SHEAR NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ATTM.
MOST GUIDANCE HUMIDITY FIELDS KEEP THIS CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS AT
LEAST OVER THE EAST THROUGH MORNING WITH THE GFS EVEN BENDING BACK
WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF 5H SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER APPEARS GIVEN VERY DRY AIR OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS
THAT MOST CIRRUS OUTSIDE OF THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY THIN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS IN
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. LATEST LAV MOS SIMILAR TO EARLIER
FORECAST LOWS SO ONLY MAKING SMALL ADJUSTS...MAINLY TO LOWER A BIT IN
A FEW MORE OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS WHERE EARLIER COOP MOS WAS THE
COLDEST. ALSO ADDED A BIT MORE DEEP VALLEY FROST BUT GIVEN WARM GROUND
TEMPS/VEGETATION AND FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS ANY FROST VERY BRIEF
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. ALSO GIVEN CURRENT
WIDE TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD IN SPOTS...SLOWING DOWN FOG FORMATION A
WHILE LONGER TO MOSTLY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR NOW. OTRW
CALLING IT CLEAR TO PC THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS 37-44 FAR
WEST...LOW/MID 40S BLUE RIDGE...AND LOW 50S SE WHERE MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD NEGATE COOLING TO SOME DEGREE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT AT THE SAME
TIME AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
CLOSES OFF...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP AND SEND SOME
CIRRUS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON DENSITY OF THE CIRRUS...BUT THINK THE SKY WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS...AS WINDS
DECOUPLE...AND SKY IN THE WEST TO BE CLEAR. THINK TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF BATH AND
GREENBRIER WITH MOST STAYING ABOVE 37F. PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEYS
APPEARS POSSIBLE SO HIGHLIGHT BATH AND GREENBRIER IN THE HWO FOR
PATCHY FROST. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY BUT
EVENING SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TRENDS IN
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY IN CASE THREAT OF MORE FROST INCREASES.

NONETHELESS THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD SINCE LATE MAY...WITH
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOUNTAINS...TO MID 40S-50 EAST.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...AND MAINLY KEEPING A STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUDS SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGH WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...

STILL LOOKING DRY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN
TERMS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
SPREADS WEST FROM THE EAST FLOW AROUND THE WEDGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS AND THE 12Z NAM IS COMING INTO THIS
TREND AS WELL...WITH THE GFS STILL DRIER. THINK THE DRY LOW LVLS
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP BUT LATE WED NIGHT-THU SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE NE/MID ATLANTIC AND A COASTAL
TROUGH/FRONT/LOW TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. THE WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THURSDAY...THAN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...THEN WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S WHERE ITS CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES...WITH LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS THE FAR SW VA CORRIDOR HEADING WEST OF MARION AND
TAZEWELL.

LOWS WILL ALSO MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL COOL WED
MORNING WITH LOWER 40S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES.

THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP THIS FAR INLAND. BUT
WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE
CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH RETARDS THE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN.

TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRIDS SHOWING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KROA/KLYH/KBLF
AND KDAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY RIVER BOTTOM FOG.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KBCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT
AROUND DAWN. BY 14Z/10AM TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/JH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 230111
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
SLOWLY FADING WHILE PERSISTENT AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SHEAR NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ATTM.
MOST GUIDANCE HUMIDITY FIELDS KEEP THIS CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS AT
LEAST OVER THE EAST THROUGH MORNING WITH THE GFS EVEN BENDING BACK
WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF 5H SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER APPEARS GIVEN VERY DRY AIR OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS
THAT MOST CIRRUS OUTSIDE OF THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY THIN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS IN
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. LATEST LAV MOS SIMILAR TO EARLIER
FORECAST LOWS SO ONLY MAKING SMALL ADJUSTS...MAINLY TO LOWER A BIT IN
A FEW MORE OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS WHERE EARLIER COOP MOS WAS THE
COLDEST. ALSO ADDED A BIT MORE DEEP VALLEY FROST BUT GIVEN WARM GROUND
TEMPS/VEGETATION AND FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS ANY FROST VERY BRIEF
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. ALSO GIVEN CURRENT
WIDE TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD IN SPOTS...SLOWING DOWN FOG FORMATION A
WHILE LONGER TO MOSTLY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR NOW. OTRW
CALLING IT CLEAR TO PC THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS 37-44 FAR
WEST...LOW/MID 40S BLUE RIDGE...AND LOW 50S SE WHERE MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD NEGATE COOLING TO SOME DEGREE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT AT THE SAME
TIME AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
CLOSES OFF...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP AND SEND SOME
CIRRUS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON DENSITY OF THE CIRRUS...BUT THINK THE SKY WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS...AS WINDS
DECOUPLE...AND SKY IN THE WEST TO BE CLEAR. THINK TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF BATH AND
GREENBRIER WITH MOST STAYING ABOVE 37F. PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEYS
APPEARS POSSIBLE SO HIGHLIGHT BATH AND GREENBRIER IN THE HWO FOR
PATCHY FROST. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY BUT
EVENING SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TRENDS IN
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY IN CASE THREAT OF MORE FROST INCREASES.

NONETHELESS THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD SINCE LATE MAY...WITH
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOUNTAINS...TO MID 40S-50 EAST.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...AND MAINLY KEEPING A STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUDS SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGH WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...

STILL LOOKING DRY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN
TERMS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
SPREADS WEST FROM THE EAST FLOW AROUND THE WEDGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS AND THE 12Z NAM IS COMING INTO THIS
TREND AS WELL...WITH THE GFS STILL DRIER. THINK THE DRY LOW LVLS
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP BUT LATE WED NIGHT-THU SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE NE/MID ATLANTIC AND A COASTAL
TROUGH/FRONT/LOW TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. THE WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THURSDAY...THAN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...THEN WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S WHERE ITS CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES...WITH LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS THE FAR SW VA CORRIDOR HEADING WEST OF MARION AND
TAZEWELL.

LOWS WILL ALSO MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL COOL WED
MORNING WITH LOWER 40S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES. THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH
ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP
THIS FAR INLAND. BUT WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM
THIS ALONG WITH THE CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH RETARDS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO
SUNDAY. GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT
MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN. TEMPS
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH
GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRIDS SHOWING
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT MONDAY...

BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NW SLOPES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING LEAVING SOME SHEARED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CANOPY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OTRW EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING TO PATCHY RIVER BOTTOM FOG LATE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KBCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT AROUND DAWN. BY
14Z/10AM TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND WILL STAY AT
THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING THE STRONGEST SPEEDS AROUND KDAN
WHERE NE WINDS AT 8-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/CF/JH/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230111
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
SLOWLY FADING WHILE PERSISTENT AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SHEAR NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ATTM.
MOST GUIDANCE HUMIDITY FIELDS KEEP THIS CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS AT
LEAST OVER THE EAST THROUGH MORNING WITH THE GFS EVEN BENDING BACK
WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF 5H SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER APPEARS GIVEN VERY DRY AIR OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS
THAT MOST CIRRUS OUTSIDE OF THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY THIN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS IN
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. LATEST LAV MOS SIMILAR TO EARLIER
FORECAST LOWS SO ONLY MAKING SMALL ADJUSTS...MAINLY TO LOWER A BIT IN
A FEW MORE OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS WHERE EARLIER COOP MOS WAS THE
COLDEST. ALSO ADDED A BIT MORE DEEP VALLEY FROST BUT GIVEN WARM GROUND
TEMPS/VEGETATION AND FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS ANY FROST VERY BRIEF
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. ALSO GIVEN CURRENT
WIDE TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD IN SPOTS...SLOWING DOWN FOG FORMATION A
WHILE LONGER TO MOSTLY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR NOW. OTRW
CALLING IT CLEAR TO PC THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS 37-44 FAR
WEST...LOW/MID 40S BLUE RIDGE...AND LOW 50S SE WHERE MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD NEGATE COOLING TO SOME DEGREE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT AT THE SAME
TIME AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
CLOSES OFF...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP AND SEND SOME
CIRRUS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON DENSITY OF THE CIRRUS...BUT THINK THE SKY WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS...AS WINDS
DECOUPLE...AND SKY IN THE WEST TO BE CLEAR. THINK TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF BATH AND
GREENBRIER WITH MOST STAYING ABOVE 37F. PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEYS
APPEARS POSSIBLE SO HIGHLIGHT BATH AND GREENBRIER IN THE HWO FOR
PATCHY FROST. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY BUT
EVENING SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TRENDS IN
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY IN CASE THREAT OF MORE FROST INCREASES.

NONETHELESS THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD SINCE LATE MAY...WITH
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOUNTAINS...TO MID 40S-50 EAST.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...AND MAINLY KEEPING A STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUDS SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGH WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...

STILL LOOKING DRY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN
TERMS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
SPREADS WEST FROM THE EAST FLOW AROUND THE WEDGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS AND THE 12Z NAM IS COMING INTO THIS
TREND AS WELL...WITH THE GFS STILL DRIER. THINK THE DRY LOW LVLS
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP BUT LATE WED NIGHT-THU SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE NE/MID ATLANTIC AND A COASTAL
TROUGH/FRONT/LOW TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. THE WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THURSDAY...THAN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...THEN WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S WHERE ITS CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES...WITH LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS THE FAR SW VA CORRIDOR HEADING WEST OF MARION AND
TAZEWELL.

LOWS WILL ALSO MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL COOL WED
MORNING WITH LOWER 40S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES. THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH
ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP
THIS FAR INLAND. BUT WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM
THIS ALONG WITH THE CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH RETARDS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO
SUNDAY. GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT
MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN. TEMPS
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH
GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRIDS SHOWING
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT MONDAY...

BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NW SLOPES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING LEAVING SOME SHEARED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CANOPY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OTRW EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING TO PATCHY RIVER BOTTOM FOG LATE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KBCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT AROUND DAWN. BY
14Z/10AM TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND WILL STAY AT
THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING THE STRONGEST SPEEDS AROUND KDAN
WHERE NE WINDS AT 8-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/CF/JH/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 222317
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT AT THE SAME
TIME AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
CLOSES OFF...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP AND SEND SOME
CIRRUS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON DENSITY OF THE CIRRUS...BUT THINK THE SKY WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS...AS WINDS
DECOUPLE...AND SKY IN THE WEST TO BE CLEAR. THINK TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF BATH AND
GREENBRIER WITH MOST STAYING ABOVE 37F. PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEYS
APPEARS POSSIBLE SO HIGHLIGHT BATH AND GREENBRIER IN THE HWO FOR
PATCHY FROST. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY BUT
EVENING SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TRENDS IN
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY IN CASE THREAT OF MORE FROST INCREASES.

NONETHELESS THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD SINCE LATE MAY...WITH
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOUNTAINS...TO MID 40S-50 EAST.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...AND MAINLY KEEPING A STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUDS SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGH WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...

STILL LOOKING DRY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN
TERMS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
SPREADS WEST FROM THE EAST FLOW AROUND THE WEDGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS AND THE 12Z NAM IS COMING INTO THIS
TREND AS WELL...WITH THE GFS STILL DRIER. THINK THE DRY LOW LVLS
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP BUT LATE WED NIGHT-THU SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE NE/MID ATLANTIC AND A COASTAL
TROUGH/FRONT/LOW TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. THE WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THURSDAY...THAN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...THEN WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S WHERE ITS CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES...WITH LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS THE FAR SW VA CORRIDOR HEADING WEST OF MARION AND
TAZEWELL.

LOWS WILL ALSO MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL COOL WED
MORNING WITH LOWER 40S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES. THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH
ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP
THIS FAR INLAND. BUT WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM
THIS ALONG WITH THE CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH RETARDS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO
SUNDAY. GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT
MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN. TEMPS
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH
GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRIDS SHOWING
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT MONDAY...

BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NW SLOPES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING LEAVING SOME SHEARED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CANOPY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OTRW EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING TO PATCHY RIVER BOTTOM FOG LATE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KBCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT AROUND DAWN. BY
14Z/10AM TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND WILL STAY AT
THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING THE STRONGEST SPEEDS AROUND KDAN
WHERE NE WINDS AT 8-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/CF/JH/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 222317
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT AT THE SAME
TIME AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
CLOSES OFF...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP AND SEND SOME
CIRRUS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON DENSITY OF THE CIRRUS...BUT THINK THE SKY WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS...AS WINDS
DECOUPLE...AND SKY IN THE WEST TO BE CLEAR. THINK TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF BATH AND
GREENBRIER WITH MOST STAYING ABOVE 37F. PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEYS
APPEARS POSSIBLE SO HIGHLIGHT BATH AND GREENBRIER IN THE HWO FOR
PATCHY FROST. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY BUT
EVENING SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TRENDS IN
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY IN CASE THREAT OF MORE FROST INCREASES.

NONETHELESS THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD SINCE LATE MAY...WITH
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOUNTAINS...TO MID 40S-50 EAST.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...AND MAINLY KEEPING A STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUDS SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGH WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...

STILL LOOKING DRY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN
TERMS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
SPREADS WEST FROM THE EAST FLOW AROUND THE WEDGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS AND THE 12Z NAM IS COMING INTO THIS
TREND AS WELL...WITH THE GFS STILL DRIER. THINK THE DRY LOW LVLS
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP BUT LATE WED NIGHT-THU SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE NE/MID ATLANTIC AND A COASTAL
TROUGH/FRONT/LOW TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. THE WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THURSDAY...THAN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...THEN WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S WHERE ITS CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES...WITH LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS THE FAR SW VA CORRIDOR HEADING WEST OF MARION AND
TAZEWELL.

LOWS WILL ALSO MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL COOL WED
MORNING WITH LOWER 40S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES. THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH
ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP
THIS FAR INLAND. BUT WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM
THIS ALONG WITH THE CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH RETARDS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO
SUNDAY. GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT
MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN. TEMPS
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH
GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRIDS SHOWING
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT MONDAY...

BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NW SLOPES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING LEAVING SOME SHEARED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CANOPY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OTRW EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING TO PATCHY RIVER BOTTOM FOG LATE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KBCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT AROUND DAWN. BY
14Z/10AM TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND WILL STAY AT
THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING THE STRONGEST SPEEDS AROUND KDAN
WHERE NE WINDS AT 8-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/CF/JH/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221925
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT AT THE SAME
TIME AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
CLOSES OFF...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP AND SEND SOME
CIRRUS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON DENSITY OF THE CIRRUS...BUT THINK THE SKY WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS...AS WINDS
DECOUPLE...AND SKY IN THE WEST TO BE CLEAR. THINK TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF BATH AND
GREENBRIER WITH MOST STAYING ABOVE 37F. PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEYS
APPEARS POSSIBLE SO HIGHLIGHT BATH AND GREENBRIER IN THE HWO FOR
PATCHY FROST. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY BUT
EVENING SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TRENDS IN
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY IN CASE THREAT OF MORE FROST INCREASES.

NONETHELESS THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD SINCE LATE MAY...WITH
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOUNTAINS...TO MID 40S-50 EAST.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...AND MAINLY KEEPING A STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUDS SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGH WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...

STILL LOOKING DRY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN
TERMS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
SPREADS WEST FROM THE EAST FLOW AROUND THE WEDGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS AND THE 12Z NAM IS COMING INTO THIS
TREND AS WELL...WITH THE GFS STILL DRIER. THINK THE DRY LOW LVLS
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP BUT LATE WED NIGHT-THU SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE NE/MID ATLANTIC AND A COASTAL
TROUGH/FRONT/LOW TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. THE WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THURSDAY...THAN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...THEN WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S WHERE ITS CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES...WITH LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS THE FAR SW VA CORRIDOR HEADING WEST OF MARION AND
TAZEWELL.

LOWS WILL ALSO MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL COOL WED
MORNING WITH LOWER 40S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES. THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH
ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP
THIS FAR INLAND. BUT WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM
THIS ALONG WITH THE CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH RETARDS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO
SUNDAY. GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT
MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN. TEMPS
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH
GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRIDS SHOWING
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT.&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...


WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE CALMING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
HOLDING ON AT BLF...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SCATTERING OUT BY 21Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME PATCHY RIVER FOG
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COOL AIR PASSES OVER THE MUCH WARMER
WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT LWB
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT
AROUND DAWN. BY 14Z TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND WILL
STAY AT THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM A W/NW DIRECTION TODAY TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/CF/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221925
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT AT THE SAME
TIME AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
CLOSES OFF...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP AND SEND SOME
CIRRUS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON DENSITY OF THE CIRRUS...BUT THINK THE SKY WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS...AS WINDS
DECOUPLE...AND SKY IN THE WEST TO BE CLEAR. THINK TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF BATH AND
GREENBRIER WITH MOST STAYING ABOVE 37F. PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEYS
APPEARS POSSIBLE SO HIGHLIGHT BATH AND GREENBRIER IN THE HWO FOR
PATCHY FROST. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY BUT
EVENING SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TRENDS IN
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY IN CASE THREAT OF MORE FROST INCREASES.

NONETHELESS THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD SINCE LATE MAY...WITH
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOUNTAINS...TO MID 40S-50 EAST.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...AND MAINLY KEEPING A STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUDS SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGH WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...

STILL LOOKING DRY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN
TERMS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
SPREADS WEST FROM THE EAST FLOW AROUND THE WEDGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS AND THE 12Z NAM IS COMING INTO THIS
TREND AS WELL...WITH THE GFS STILL DRIER. THINK THE DRY LOW LVLS
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP BUT LATE WED NIGHT-THU SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE NE/MID ATLANTIC AND A COASTAL
TROUGH/FRONT/LOW TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. THE WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THURSDAY...THAN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...THEN WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S WHERE ITS CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES...WITH LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS THE FAR SW VA CORRIDOR HEADING WEST OF MARION AND
TAZEWELL.

LOWS WILL ALSO MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL COOL WED
MORNING WITH LOWER 40S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING
INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES. THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH
ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP
THIS FAR INLAND. BUT WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM
THIS ALONG WITH THE CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH RETARDS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO
SUNDAY. GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT
MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN. TEMPS
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH
GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRIDS SHOWING
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT.&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...


WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE CALMING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
HOLDING ON AT BLF...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SCATTERING OUT BY 21Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME PATCHY RIVER FOG
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COOL AIR PASSES OVER THE MUCH WARMER
WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT LWB
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT
AROUND DAWN. BY 14Z TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND WILL
STAY AT THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM A W/NW DIRECTION TODAY TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/CF/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221711
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
111 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT MONDAY...

EDITED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWERED
WIND SPEEDS A BIT AS THEY ARE WEAKENING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ALSO EXPANDED CLOUD COVER EASTWARD THROUGH THE NRV FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS VIS SATELLITE CONFIRMS LOW STRATO CU HANGING ON.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY MOSTLY SUNNY OR
CLEAR. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF COOL AND DRY AIR CONTINUING TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. DEWPTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE ALREADY DOWN
TO THE UPPER 40S AND THEY WILL CONTINUE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI REACHES THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING COLDER
500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS CLEARED FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL REACH +8 TO +10 BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. AN
EVEN BIGGER CHANGE IN THE DEW POINTS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. BY THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.50 INCHES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT AS
THE HIGH GETS CLOSER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COOLER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH NOON. AS THE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FORCING
DIMINISHES...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BASED ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

A STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WEDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW...A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM
KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES IT INLAND TOWARDS THE
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ADVANCING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN ENTERS THE PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECM IS SLOWER AND TRACKS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER WESTWARD/INLAND THAN THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECM HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT OF VA/NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ONE OR A COMBINATION OF THE MODELS COULD BE
RIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE
WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER WEDGE WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY. KEPT
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE SINCE THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AND A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRATUS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE (NAM). IF THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE UPPER 60S. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAS UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...


WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE CALMING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
HOLDING ON AT BLF...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SCATTERING OUT BY 21Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME PATCHY RIVER FOG
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COOL AIR PASSES OVER THE MUCH WARMER
WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT LWB
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT
AROUND DAWN. BY 14Z TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND WILL
STAY AT THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM A W/NW DIRECTION TODAY TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/CF/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221711
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
111 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT MONDAY...

EDITED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWERED
WIND SPEEDS A BIT AS THEY ARE WEAKENING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ALSO EXPANDED CLOUD COVER EASTWARD THROUGH THE NRV FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS VIS SATELLITE CONFIRMS LOW STRATO CU HANGING ON.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY MOSTLY SUNNY OR
CLEAR. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF COOL AND DRY AIR CONTINUING TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. DEWPTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE ALREADY DOWN
TO THE UPPER 40S AND THEY WILL CONTINUE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI REACHES THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING COLDER
500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS CLEARED FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL REACH +8 TO +10 BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. AN
EVEN BIGGER CHANGE IN THE DEW POINTS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. BY THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.50 INCHES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT AS
THE HIGH GETS CLOSER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COOLER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH NOON. AS THE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FORCING
DIMINISHES...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BASED ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

A STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WEDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW...A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM
KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES IT INLAND TOWARDS THE
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ADVANCING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN ENTERS THE PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECM IS SLOWER AND TRACKS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER WESTWARD/INLAND THAN THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECM HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT OF VA/NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ONE OR A COMBINATION OF THE MODELS COULD BE
RIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE
WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER WEDGE WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY. KEPT
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE SINCE THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AND A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRATUS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE (NAM). IF THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE UPPER 60S. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAS UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...


WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE CALMING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
HOLDING ON AT BLF...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SCATTERING OUT BY 21Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME PATCHY RIVER FOG
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COOL AIR PASSES OVER THE MUCH WARMER
WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT LWB
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT
AROUND DAWN. BY 14Z TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND WILL
STAY AT THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM A W/NW DIRECTION TODAY TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE
GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/CF/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
933 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT MONDAY...

EDITED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWERED
WIND SPEEDS A BIT AS THEY ARE WEAKENING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ALSO EXPANDED CLOUD COVER EASTWARD THROUGH THE NRV FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS VIS SATELLITE CONFIRMS LOW STRATO CU HANGING ON.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY MOSTLY SUNNY OR
CLEAR. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF COOL AND DRY AIR CONTINUING TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. DEWPTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE ALREADY DOWN
TO THE UPPER 40S AND THEY WILL CONTINUE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI REACHES THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING COLDER
500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS CLEARED FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL REACH +8 TO +10 BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. AN
EVEN BIGGER CHANGE IN THE DEW POINTS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. BY THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.50 INCHES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT AS
THE HIGH GETS CLOSER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COOLER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH NOON. AS THE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FORCING
DIMINISHES...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BASED ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

A STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WEDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW...A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM
KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES IT INLAND TOWARDS THE
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ADVANCING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN ENTERS THE PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECM IS SLOWER AND TRACKS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER WESTWARD/INLAND THAN THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECM HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT OF VA/NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ONE OR A COMBINATION OF THE MODELS COULD BE
RIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE
WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER WEDGE WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY. KEPT
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE SINCE THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AND A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRATUS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE (NAM). IF THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE UPPER 60S. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAS UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE GULF
COAST STATES AT 11Z/7AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS....INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL
ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 21Z/5PM.

HAVE ADDED LIFR FOG IN FOR KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING COOL AIR
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GREENBRIER RIVER WILL PRODUCE FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST MAY BRING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
933 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT MONDAY...

EDITED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWERED
WIND SPEEDS A BIT AS THEY ARE WEAKENING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ALSO EXPANDED CLOUD COVER EASTWARD THROUGH THE NRV FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS VIS SATELLITE CONFIRMS LOW STRATO CU HANGING ON.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY MOSTLY SUNNY OR
CLEAR. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF COOL AND DRY AIR CONTINUING TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. DEWPTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE ALREADY DOWN
TO THE UPPER 40S AND THEY WILL CONTINUE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI REACHES THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING COLDER
500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS CLEARED FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL REACH +8 TO +10 BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. AN
EVEN BIGGER CHANGE IN THE DEW POINTS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. BY THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.50 INCHES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT AS
THE HIGH GETS CLOSER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COOLER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH NOON. AS THE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FORCING
DIMINISHES...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BASED ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

A STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WEDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW...A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM
KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES IT INLAND TOWARDS THE
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ADVANCING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN ENTERS THE PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECM IS SLOWER AND TRACKS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER WESTWARD/INLAND THAN THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECM HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT OF VA/NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ONE OR A COMBINATION OF THE MODELS COULD BE
RIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE
WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER WEDGE WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY. KEPT
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE SINCE THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AND A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRATUS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE (NAM). IF THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE UPPER 60S. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAS UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE GULF
COAST STATES AT 11Z/7AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS....INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL
ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 21Z/5PM.

HAVE ADDED LIFR FOG IN FOR KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING COOL AIR
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GREENBRIER RIVER WILL PRODUCE FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST MAY BRING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 221131
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
731 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI REACHES THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING COLDER
500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS CLEARED FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL REACH +8 TO +10 BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. AN
EVEN BIGGER CHANGE IN THE DEW POINTS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. BY THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.50 INCHES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT AS
THE HIGH GETS CLOSER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COOLER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH NOON. AS THE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FORCING
DIMINISHES...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BASED ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

A STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WEDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW...A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM
KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES IT INLAND TOWARDS THE
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ADVANCING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN ENTERS THE PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECM IS SLOWER AND TRACKS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER WESTWARD/INLAND THAN THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECM HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT OF VA/NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ONE OR A COMBINATION OF THE MODELS COULD BE
RIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE
WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER WEDGE WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY. KEPT
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE SINCE THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AND A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRATUS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE (NAM). IF THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE UPPER 60S. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAS UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE GULF
COAST STATES AT 11Z/7AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS....INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL
ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 21Z/5PM.

HAVE ADDED LIFR FOG IN FOR KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING COOL AIR
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GREENBRIER RIVER WILL PRODUCE FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST MAY BRING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221131
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
731 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI REACHES THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING COLDER
500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS CLEARED FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL REACH +8 TO +10 BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. AN
EVEN BIGGER CHANGE IN THE DEW POINTS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. BY THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.50 INCHES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT AS
THE HIGH GETS CLOSER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COOLER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH NOON. AS THE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FORCING
DIMINISHES...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BASED ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

A STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WEDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW...A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM
KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES IT INLAND TOWARDS THE
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ADVANCING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN ENTERS THE PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECM IS SLOWER AND TRACKS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER WESTWARD/INLAND THAN THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECM HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT OF VA/NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ONE OR A COMBINATION OF THE MODELS COULD BE
RIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE
WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER WEDGE WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY. KEPT
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE SINCE THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AND A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRATUS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE (NAM). IF THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE UPPER 60S. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAS UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE GULF
COAST STATES AT 11Z/7AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS....INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL
ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 21Z/5PM.

HAVE ADDED LIFR FOG IN FOR KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING COOL AIR
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GREENBRIER RIVER WILL PRODUCE FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST MAY BRING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220814
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI REACHES THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING COLDER
500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS CLEARED FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL REACH +8 TO +10 BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. AN
EVEN BIGGER CHANGE IN THE DEW POINTS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. BY THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.50 INCHES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT AS
THE HIGH GETS CLOSER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COOLER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH NOON. AS THE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FORCING
DIMINISHES...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BASED ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

A STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WEDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW...A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM
KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES IT INLAND TOWARDS THE
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ADVANCING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN ENTERS THE PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECM IS SLOWER AND TRACKS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER WESTWARD/INLAND THAN THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECM HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT OF VA/NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ONE OR A COMBINATION OF THE MODELS COULD BE
RIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE
WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER WEDGE WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY. KEPT
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE SINCE THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AND A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRATUS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE (NAM). IF THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE UPPER 60S. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAS UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VERMONT TO EASTERN VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AT 05Z/1AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF WHEN
KLWB AND KBLF WILL DROP TO MVFR. BCB WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF VFR
TO MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

KLWB...AND ESPECIALLY KBLF WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 15Z/11AM-
17Z/1PM TIME FRAME. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB
AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST
MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 220549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY
MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST...DEWPOINTS TAKING A NOTICEABLE PLUNGE...READINGS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER FEELING TO THE AIR STARTING MONDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A GENERAL CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING
SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY...ESP ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS WHERE SURFACE GUSTS OF
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VERMONT TO EASTERN VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AT 05Z/1AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF WHEN
KLWB AND KBLF WILL DROP TO MVFR. BCB WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF VFR
TO MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

KLWB...AND ESPECIALLY KBLF WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 15Z/11AM-
17Z/1PM TIME FRAME. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB
AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST
MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 220549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY
MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST...DEWPOINTS TAKING A NOTICEABLE PLUNGE...READINGS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER FEELING TO THE AIR STARTING MONDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A GENERAL CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING
SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY...ESP ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS WHERE SURFACE GUSTS OF
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VERMONT TO EASTERN VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AT 05Z/1AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF WHEN
KLWB AND KBLF WILL DROP TO MVFR. BCB WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF VFR
TO MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

KLWB...AND ESPECIALLY KBLF WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 15Z/11AM-
17Z/1PM TIME FRAME. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB
AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST
MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220245
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1045 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASEFROM
THE NORTHWEST...DEWPOINTS TAKING A NOTICEABLE PLUNGE...READINGS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER FEELING TO THE AIR STARTING MONDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A GENERAL CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING
SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY...ESP ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS WHERE SURFACE GUSTS OF
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 220245
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1045 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASEFROM
THE NORTHWEST...DEWPOINTS TAKING A NOTICEABLE PLUNGE...READINGS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER FEELING TO THE AIR STARTING MONDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A GENERAL CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING
SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY...ESP ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS WHERE SURFACE GUSTS OF
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 212354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. WITH SOLAR HEATING...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT TO CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SWODY1
HIGHLIGHT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 06Z/2AM. DECENT
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 212354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. WITH SOLAR HEATING...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT TO CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SWODY1
HIGHLIGHT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 06Z/2AM. DECENT
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. WITH SOLAR HEATING...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT TO CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SWODY1
HIGHLIGHT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 06Z/2AM. DECENT
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBLF AND KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCES ON CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. WITH SOLAR HEATING...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT TO CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SWODY1
HIGHLIGHT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 06Z/2AM. DECENT
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBLF AND KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCES ON CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211722
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KFCX 88D SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTMENT POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND. RAISED HIGH IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES
WITH SUNSHINE. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON.


AS OF 933 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH INTO TONIGHT...AS COLD FRONT IN THE
OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR...NAM AND HIRESW-
ARW STILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...

AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBLF AND KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCES ON CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KK/RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211722
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KFCX 88D SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTMENT POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND. RAISED HIGH IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES
WITH SUNSHINE. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON.


AS OF 933 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH INTO TONIGHT...AS COLD FRONT IN THE
OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR...NAM AND HIRESW-
ARW STILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...

AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBLF AND KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCES ON CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KK/RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
933 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 933 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH INTO TONIGHT...AS COLD FRONT IN THE
OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR...NAM AND HIRESW-
ARW STILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...

AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
VIRGINIA WITH CLOUDS IN THE EAST. FOG WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE NEW
RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER...RESULTING IN LIFR VISIBILITIES AT
KLWB AND KBCB.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MVFR
CEILINGS AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK/RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
VIRGINIA WITH CLOUDS IN THE EAST. FOG WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE NEW
RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER...RESULTING IN LIFR VISIBILITIES AT
KLWB AND KBCB.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MVFR
CEILINGS AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
VIRGINIA WITH CLOUDS IN THE EAST. FOG WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE NEW
RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER...RESULTING IN LIFR VISIBILITIES AT
KLWB AND KBCB.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MVFR
CEILINGS AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210824
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
424 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS AROUND A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REDUCE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT KDAN AND KLYH FOR THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY WEST OF THIS
CIRRUS. FOG WAS ALREADY FORMING AT KLWB IN THE GREENBRIER RIVER
VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW MUCH FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
AT KBCB THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
LOW END VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING TO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS
20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210824
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
424 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS AROUND A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REDUCE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT KDAN AND KLYH FOR THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY WEST OF THIS
CIRRUS. FOG WAS ALREADY FORMING AT KLWB IN THE GREENBRIER RIVER
VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW MUCH FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
AT KBCB THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
LOW END VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING TO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS
20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. GSO EVENING SOUNDING
INDICATED THIS CLOUD LAYER WAS BETWEEN 35-40KFT AGL OR 200-260 MB.
MODELS KEEP THIS MOISTURE PINNED MAINLY TO COAST JUST BRUSHING OUR
EASTERN CWA...WITH LYH/MTV/GSO AND POINTS EAST BECOMING OVC AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT FROM THIS HIGHER LAYER OF CLOUD. LOOKING WEST...
CLOUDS WERE ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS AROUND A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REDUCE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT KDAN AND KLYH FOR THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY WEST OF THIS
CIRRUS. FOG WAS ALREADY FORMING AT KLWB IN THE GREENBRIER RIVER
VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW MUCH FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
AT KBCB THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
LOW END VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING TO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS
20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. GSO EVENING SOUNDING
INDICATED THIS CLOUD LAYER WAS BETWEEN 35-40KFT AGL OR 200-260 MB.
MODELS KEEP THIS MOISTURE PINNED MAINLY TO COAST JUST BRUSHING OUR
EASTERN CWA...WITH LYH/MTV/GSO AND POINTS EAST BECOMING OVC AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT FROM THIS HIGHER LAYER OF CLOUD. LOOKING WEST...
CLOUDS WERE ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS AROUND A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REDUCE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT KDAN AND KLYH FOR THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY WEST OF THIS
CIRRUS. FOG WAS ALREADY FORMING AT KLWB IN THE GREENBRIER RIVER
VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW MUCH FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
AT KBCB THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
LOW END VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING TO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS
20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210215
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1015 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. GSO EVENING SOUNDING
INDICATED THIS CLOUD LAYER WAS BETWEEN 35-40KFT AGL OR 200-260 MB.
MODELS KEEP THIS MOISTURE PINNED MAINLY TO COAST JUST BRUSHING OUR
EASTERN CWA...WITH LYH/MTV/GSO AND POINTS EAST BECOMING OVC AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT FROM THIS HIGHER LAYER OF CLOUD. LOOKING WEST...
CLOUDS WERE ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE NIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...IMPACTING VISIBILITIES AT KLWB AND KBCB. LIFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT KLWB WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBCB.
AFTER AN ENTIRE DAY OF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CHANCES FOR FOG AT KDAN AND
KLYH ARE LOWER...AND FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THESE SITES.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE
ADVANCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...WITH LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210215
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1015 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. GSO EVENING SOUNDING
INDICATED THIS CLOUD LAYER WAS BETWEEN 35-40KFT AGL OR 200-260 MB.
MODELS KEEP THIS MOISTURE PINNED MAINLY TO COAST JUST BRUSHING OUR
EASTERN CWA...WITH LYH/MTV/GSO AND POINTS EAST BECOMING OVC AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT FROM THIS HIGHER LAYER OF CLOUD. LOOKING WEST...
CLOUDS WERE ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE NIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...IMPACTING VISIBILITIES AT KLWB AND KBCB. LIFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT KLWB WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBCB.
AFTER AN ENTIRE DAY OF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CHANCES FOR FOG AT KDAN AND
KLYH ARE LOWER...AND FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THESE SITES.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE
ADVANCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...WITH LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...PH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 202321
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO
NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE NIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...IMPACTING VISIBILITIES AT KLWB AND KBCB. LIFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT KLWB WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBCB.
AFTER AN ENTIRE DAY OF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CHANCES FOR FOG AT KDAN AND
KLYH ARE LOWER...AND FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THESE SITES.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE
ADVANCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...WITH LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...PH





000
FXUS61 KRNK 202321
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO
NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE NIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...IMPACTING VISIBILITIES AT KLWB AND KBCB. LIFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT KLWB WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBCB.
AFTER AN ENTIRE DAY OF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CHANCES FOR FOG AT KDAN AND
KLYH ARE LOWER...AND FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THESE SITES.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE
ADVANCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...WITH LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO
NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY TO KBCB/KDAN AND LYH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN FOR KLWB SINCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.

RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO
NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY TO KBCB/KDAN AND LYH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN FOR KLWB SINCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.

RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK





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