Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KRNK 020100
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION AND
THEN RAIN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM EST SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERIE PENNSYLVANIA TO MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS RELATIVELY WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. SOME OF THIS WARMER AIR WAS TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA...COMPARED TO AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WHERE
READINGS WERE IN THE 30S.

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER
DAYLIGHT MONDAY. UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER AND EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY...MAY
ACTUALLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SO STUBBORN TO CHANGE PER THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR THERE.

POPS TONIGHT REFLECT A BLEND OF THE RNK WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW AND
GFS WHICH MAINTAIN CHC THREAT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME PRECIP THERE...RAIN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP AT ALL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE WESTERLY WINDS
SUPPRESSING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG PER THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR AND STRATUS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM
SINCE IT IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO BE MEASURABLE. THAT BEING
SAID...ALSO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE FOOTHILLS VCNTY OF LYNCHBURG AND AMHERST WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REFUSED TO CLIMB ABOVE 32. THIS WILL BE AN AREA
TO WATCH...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT...FOR ICING ON ELEVATED
SURFACES...IN ADDITION TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER...SPRINGLIKE AIR TO THE SOUTH OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...LEAVING ONLY A BRIEF
WINDOW IN THE LATE TUE TO WED TIME FRAME FOR WARM AIR AND LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS CARVING OUT A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING ON TOP OF AN ARCTIC HIGH...YET
AGAIN A FAVORABLE WEDGE SET UP FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUE MORNING...A NEW AREA
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS UNDER
THE MEAN TROUGH. IN BETWEEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH
FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW ACROSS THE
REGION...LEADING TO AN INITIAL SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
FEATURES...ALTHOUGH UNDERNEATH...THE COLD...DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERCOME THIS OBSTACLE AT THE SURFACE.

SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TUE WITH A
FAVORABLE WEDGE SETUP IN PLACE AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND DEEP MOISTURE TRACKING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION EXPERIENCED SUNDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDING ON DEPTH
AND DURATION OF COLD AIR AT ANY LOCATION. USING THE TOPDOWN WX
TOOL...A PREDOMINANCE OF -FZRA WAS INDICATED IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...WITH -FZRA/IP IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN BY AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SW LLJ AND CONTINUED WARM AIR INTRUSION EATING AWAY AT THE
WEDGE. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND
THE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT AND THE STRONG LLJ...WOULD NOT
EXPECT THIS NEXT WEDGE TO BE QUITE AS TENACIOUS AS THE ONE TODAY.

AFTER THE ISENTROPIC/WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES AWAY TUE
EVENING...A DRY SLOT WILL ADVECT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT SLOWED BY THE SW/PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. THUS...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE UPPER SUPPORT ON THIS END WILL BE WANING AS THE
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THE HEAVIEST QPF OF WHICH TRACKS MORE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. MORE ON QPF ISSUES IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT/EARLY THU...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...BY THU MORNING DRAPED FROM
NEAR ORF-ATL. THUS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE
CONTINUED LAGGING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
EJECTED...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE MEAN FLOW. THUS...MODERATE
RAIN WED NIGHT/EARLY THU COULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO MODERATE
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE EVEN BEFORE
DAYBREAK THU IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE EVALUATED IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
STORM COULD BE ON THE HORIZON FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
DOMINANCE OF A COLD AIR WEDGE TUE...AND THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR
LATE WED/EARLY THU. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DEPARTS CONTINUING INTO EARLY WED
AS LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THERE IS A
BRIEF WINDOW WED AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
LLJ CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN SOUTHEAST WV/FAR SW VA IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

AT SUNRISE THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL STILL BE SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...WITH STEADY OR SLOWING
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION WILL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING
FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED...WITH AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EST SUNDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ARE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
WILL BEGIN THE CLEARING PROCESS WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY...DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL RNK TERMINALS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

CONCERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN POTENTIAL COMBINATION
OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WHERE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS...MOST OF WHICH REMAINS INTACT DUE TO PERSISTENT SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND THE ADDED EFFECTS OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND HEAVY RAIN MID-WEEK. AS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE...THE
PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO AN APPROXIMATELY
24-36 HOUR WINDOW LATE TUE INTO WED EVENING BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
RETURNS. PRIOR TO TUE...LITTLE IF ANY MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK
CLOSER TO THE INITIAL SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN/OH VALLEY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS COULD AFFECT OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE SOME OF THE GREATEST SNOW PACK.
LOCALLY GENERATED AND WPC QPF IN OUR WESTERN MOST AREAS FOR THE
WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IS IN THE
1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THIS COULD STILL RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...BUT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. THE NEXT WAVE OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN. ONE OTHER ISSUE MIGHT
BE POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT MUCH OF THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH MANY DAYS BELOW 20. THIS COULD EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING IN CERTAIN SPOTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
OVERALL...A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
HYDROLOGY...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020100
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION AND
THEN RAIN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM EST SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERIE PENNSYLVANIA TO MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS RELATIVELY WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. SOME OF THIS WARMER AIR WAS TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA...COMPARED TO AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WHERE
READINGS WERE IN THE 30S.

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER
DAYLIGHT MONDAY. UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER AND EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY...MAY
ACTUALLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SO STUBBORN TO CHANGE PER THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR THERE.

POPS TONIGHT REFLECT A BLEND OF THE RNK WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW AND
GFS WHICH MAINTAIN CHC THREAT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME PRECIP THERE...RAIN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP AT ALL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE WESTERLY WINDS
SUPPRESSING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG PER THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR AND STRATUS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM
SINCE IT IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO BE MEASURABLE. THAT BEING
SAID...ALSO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE FOOTHILLS VCNTY OF LYNCHBURG AND AMHERST WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REFUSED TO CLIMB ABOVE 32. THIS WILL BE AN AREA
TO WATCH...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT...FOR ICING ON ELEVATED
SURFACES...IN ADDITION TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER...SPRINGLIKE AIR TO THE SOUTH OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...LEAVING ONLY A BRIEF
WINDOW IN THE LATE TUE TO WED TIME FRAME FOR WARM AIR AND LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS CARVING OUT A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING ON TOP OF AN ARCTIC HIGH...YET
AGAIN A FAVORABLE WEDGE SET UP FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUE MORNING...A NEW AREA
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS UNDER
THE MEAN TROUGH. IN BETWEEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH
FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW ACROSS THE
REGION...LEADING TO AN INITIAL SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
FEATURES...ALTHOUGH UNDERNEATH...THE COLD...DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERCOME THIS OBSTACLE AT THE SURFACE.

SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TUE WITH A
FAVORABLE WEDGE SETUP IN PLACE AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND DEEP MOISTURE TRACKING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION EXPERIENCED SUNDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDING ON DEPTH
AND DURATION OF COLD AIR AT ANY LOCATION. USING THE TOPDOWN WX
TOOL...A PREDOMINANCE OF -FZRA WAS INDICATED IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...WITH -FZRA/IP IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN BY AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SW LLJ AND CONTINUED WARM AIR INTRUSION EATING AWAY AT THE
WEDGE. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND
THE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT AND THE STRONG LLJ...WOULD NOT
EXPECT THIS NEXT WEDGE TO BE QUITE AS TENACIOUS AS THE ONE TODAY.

AFTER THE ISENTROPIC/WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES AWAY TUE
EVENING...A DRY SLOT WILL ADVECT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT SLOWED BY THE SW/PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. THUS...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE UPPER SUPPORT ON THIS END WILL BE WANING AS THE
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THE HEAVIEST QPF OF WHICH TRACKS MORE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. MORE ON QPF ISSUES IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT/EARLY THU...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...BY THU MORNING DRAPED FROM
NEAR ORF-ATL. THUS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE
CONTINUED LAGGING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
EJECTED...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE MEAN FLOW. THUS...MODERATE
RAIN WED NIGHT/EARLY THU COULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO MODERATE
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE EVEN BEFORE
DAYBREAK THU IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE EVALUATED IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
STORM COULD BE ON THE HORIZON FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
DOMINANCE OF A COLD AIR WEDGE TUE...AND THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR
LATE WED/EARLY THU. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DEPARTS CONTINUING INTO EARLY WED
AS LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THERE IS A
BRIEF WINDOW WED AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
LLJ CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN SOUTHEAST WV/FAR SW VA IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

AT SUNRISE THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL STILL BE SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...WITH STEADY OR SLOWING
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION WILL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING
FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED...WITH AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EST SUNDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ARE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
WILL BEGIN THE CLEARING PROCESS WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY...DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL RNK TERMINALS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

CONCERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN POTENTIAL COMBINATION
OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WHERE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS...MOST OF WHICH REMAINS INTACT DUE TO PERSISTENT SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND THE ADDED EFFECTS OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND HEAVY RAIN MID-WEEK. AS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE...THE
PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO AN APPROXIMATELY
24-36 HOUR WINDOW LATE TUE INTO WED EVENING BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
RETURNS. PRIOR TO TUE...LITTLE IF ANY MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK
CLOSER TO THE INITIAL SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN/OH VALLEY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS COULD AFFECT OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE SOME OF THE GREATEST SNOW PACK.
LOCALLY GENERATED AND WPC QPF IN OUR WESTERN MOST AREAS FOR THE
WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IS IN THE
1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THIS COULD STILL RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...BUT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. THE NEXT WAVE OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN. ONE OTHER ISSUE MIGHT
BE POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT MUCH OF THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH MANY DAYS BELOW 20. THIS COULD EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING IN CERTAIN SPOTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
OVERALL...A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
HYDROLOGY...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 020100
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION AND
THEN RAIN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM EST SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERIE PENNSYLVANIA TO MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS RELATIVELY WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. SOME OF THIS WARMER AIR WAS TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA...COMPARED TO AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WHERE
READINGS WERE IN THE 30S.

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER
DAYLIGHT MONDAY. UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER AND EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY...MAY
ACTUALLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SO STUBBORN TO CHANGE PER THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR THERE.

POPS TONIGHT REFLECT A BLEND OF THE RNK WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW AND
GFS WHICH MAINTAIN CHC THREAT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME PRECIP THERE...RAIN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP AT ALL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE WESTERLY WINDS
SUPPRESSING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG PER THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR AND STRATUS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM
SINCE IT IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO BE MEASURABLE. THAT BEING
SAID...ALSO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE FOOTHILLS VCNTY OF LYNCHBURG AND AMHERST WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REFUSED TO CLIMB ABOVE 32. THIS WILL BE AN AREA
TO WATCH...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT...FOR ICING ON ELEVATED
SURFACES...IN ADDITION TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER...SPRINGLIKE AIR TO THE SOUTH OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...LEAVING ONLY A BRIEF
WINDOW IN THE LATE TUE TO WED TIME FRAME FOR WARM AIR AND LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS CARVING OUT A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING ON TOP OF AN ARCTIC HIGH...YET
AGAIN A FAVORABLE WEDGE SET UP FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUE MORNING...A NEW AREA
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS UNDER
THE MEAN TROUGH. IN BETWEEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH
FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW ACROSS THE
REGION...LEADING TO AN INITIAL SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
FEATURES...ALTHOUGH UNDERNEATH...THE COLD...DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERCOME THIS OBSTACLE AT THE SURFACE.

SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TUE WITH A
FAVORABLE WEDGE SETUP IN PLACE AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND DEEP MOISTURE TRACKING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION EXPERIENCED SUNDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDING ON DEPTH
AND DURATION OF COLD AIR AT ANY LOCATION. USING THE TOPDOWN WX
TOOL...A PREDOMINANCE OF -FZRA WAS INDICATED IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...WITH -FZRA/IP IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN BY AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SW LLJ AND CONTINUED WARM AIR INTRUSION EATING AWAY AT THE
WEDGE. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND
THE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT AND THE STRONG LLJ...WOULD NOT
EXPECT THIS NEXT WEDGE TO BE QUITE AS TENACIOUS AS THE ONE TODAY.

AFTER THE ISENTROPIC/WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES AWAY TUE
EVENING...A DRY SLOT WILL ADVECT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT SLOWED BY THE SW/PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. THUS...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE UPPER SUPPORT ON THIS END WILL BE WANING AS THE
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THE HEAVIEST QPF OF WHICH TRACKS MORE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. MORE ON QPF ISSUES IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT/EARLY THU...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...BY THU MORNING DRAPED FROM
NEAR ORF-ATL. THUS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE
CONTINUED LAGGING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
EJECTED...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE MEAN FLOW. THUS...MODERATE
RAIN WED NIGHT/EARLY THU COULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO MODERATE
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE EVEN BEFORE
DAYBREAK THU IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE EVALUATED IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
STORM COULD BE ON THE HORIZON FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
DOMINANCE OF A COLD AIR WEDGE TUE...AND THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR
LATE WED/EARLY THU. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DEPARTS CONTINUING INTO EARLY WED
AS LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THERE IS A
BRIEF WINDOW WED AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
LLJ CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN SOUTHEAST WV/FAR SW VA IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

AT SUNRISE THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL STILL BE SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...WITH STEADY OR SLOWING
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION WILL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING
FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED...WITH AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EST SUNDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ARE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
WILL BEGIN THE CLEARING PROCESS WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY...DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL RNK TERMINALS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

CONCERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN POTENTIAL COMBINATION
OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WHERE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS...MOST OF WHICH REMAINS INTACT DUE TO PERSISTENT SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND THE ADDED EFFECTS OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND HEAVY RAIN MID-WEEK. AS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE...THE
PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO AN APPROXIMATELY
24-36 HOUR WINDOW LATE TUE INTO WED EVENING BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
RETURNS. PRIOR TO TUE...LITTLE IF ANY MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK
CLOSER TO THE INITIAL SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN/OH VALLEY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS COULD AFFECT OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE SOME OF THE GREATEST SNOW PACK.
LOCALLY GENERATED AND WPC QPF IN OUR WESTERN MOST AREAS FOR THE
WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IS IN THE
1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THIS COULD STILL RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...BUT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. THE NEXT WAVE OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN. ONE OTHER ISSUE MIGHT
BE POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT MUCH OF THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH MANY DAYS BELOW 20. THIS COULD EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING IN CERTAIN SPOTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
OVERALL...A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
HYDROLOGY...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020100
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION AND
THEN RAIN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM EST SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERIE PENNSYLVANIA TO MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS RELATIVELY WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. SOME OF THIS WARMER AIR WAS TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA...COMPARED TO AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WHERE
READINGS WERE IN THE 30S.

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER
DAYLIGHT MONDAY. UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER AND EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY...MAY
ACTUALLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SO STUBBORN TO CHANGE PER THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR THERE.

POPS TONIGHT REFLECT A BLEND OF THE RNK WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW AND
GFS WHICH MAINTAIN CHC THREAT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME PRECIP THERE...RAIN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP AT ALL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE WESTERLY WINDS
SUPPRESSING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG PER THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR AND STRATUS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM
SINCE IT IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO BE MEASURABLE. THAT BEING
SAID...ALSO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE FOOTHILLS VCNTY OF LYNCHBURG AND AMHERST WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REFUSED TO CLIMB ABOVE 32. THIS WILL BE AN AREA
TO WATCH...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT...FOR ICING ON ELEVATED
SURFACES...IN ADDITION TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER...SPRINGLIKE AIR TO THE SOUTH OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...LEAVING ONLY A BRIEF
WINDOW IN THE LATE TUE TO WED TIME FRAME FOR WARM AIR AND LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS CARVING OUT A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING ON TOP OF AN ARCTIC HIGH...YET
AGAIN A FAVORABLE WEDGE SET UP FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUE MORNING...A NEW AREA
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS UNDER
THE MEAN TROUGH. IN BETWEEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH
FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW ACROSS THE
REGION...LEADING TO AN INITIAL SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
FEATURES...ALTHOUGH UNDERNEATH...THE COLD...DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERCOME THIS OBSTACLE AT THE SURFACE.

SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TUE WITH A
FAVORABLE WEDGE SETUP IN PLACE AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND DEEP MOISTURE TRACKING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION EXPERIENCED SUNDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDING ON DEPTH
AND DURATION OF COLD AIR AT ANY LOCATION. USING THE TOPDOWN WX
TOOL...A PREDOMINANCE OF -FZRA WAS INDICATED IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...WITH -FZRA/IP IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN BY AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SW LLJ AND CONTINUED WARM AIR INTRUSION EATING AWAY AT THE
WEDGE. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND
THE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT AND THE STRONG LLJ...WOULD NOT
EXPECT THIS NEXT WEDGE TO BE QUITE AS TENACIOUS AS THE ONE TODAY.

AFTER THE ISENTROPIC/WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES AWAY TUE
EVENING...A DRY SLOT WILL ADVECT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT SLOWED BY THE SW/PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. THUS...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE UPPER SUPPORT ON THIS END WILL BE WANING AS THE
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THE HEAVIEST QPF OF WHICH TRACKS MORE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. MORE ON QPF ISSUES IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT/EARLY THU...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...BY THU MORNING DRAPED FROM
NEAR ORF-ATL. THUS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE
CONTINUED LAGGING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
EJECTED...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE MEAN FLOW. THUS...MODERATE
RAIN WED NIGHT/EARLY THU COULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO MODERATE
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE EVEN BEFORE
DAYBREAK THU IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE EVALUATED IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
STORM COULD BE ON THE HORIZON FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
DOMINANCE OF A COLD AIR WEDGE TUE...AND THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR
LATE WED/EARLY THU. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DEPARTS CONTINUING INTO EARLY WED
AS LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THERE IS A
BRIEF WINDOW WED AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
LLJ CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN SOUTHEAST WV/FAR SW VA IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

AT SUNRISE THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL STILL BE SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...WITH STEADY OR SLOWING
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION WILL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING
FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED...WITH AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EST SUNDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ARE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
WILL BEGIN THE CLEARING PROCESS WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY...DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL RNK TERMINALS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

CONCERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN POTENTIAL COMBINATION
OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WHERE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS...MOST OF WHICH REMAINS INTACT DUE TO PERSISTENT SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND THE ADDED EFFECTS OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND HEAVY RAIN MID-WEEK. AS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE...THE
PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO AN APPROXIMATELY
24-36 HOUR WINDOW LATE TUE INTO WED EVENING BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
RETURNS. PRIOR TO TUE...LITTLE IF ANY MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK
CLOSER TO THE INITIAL SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN/OH VALLEY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS COULD AFFECT OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE SOME OF THE GREATEST SNOW PACK.
LOCALLY GENERATED AND WPC QPF IN OUR WESTERN MOST AREAS FOR THE
WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IS IN THE
1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THIS COULD STILL RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...BUT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. THE NEXT WAVE OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN. ONE OTHER ISSUE MIGHT
BE POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT MUCH OF THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH MANY DAYS BELOW 20. THIS COULD EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING IN CERTAIN SPOTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
OVERALL...A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
HYDROLOGY...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 012043
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION AND
THEN RAIN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED BECAUSE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO OR ABOVE FREEZING LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS ENDED. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

A 1039 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. WARM AIR WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. LEANED POPS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS
A BLEND OF RNK WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW AND GFS WHICH PULLS MOISTURE OUT
OF THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
GFS TONIGHT. UTILIZED WEATHER TOOL WITH GFS TEMPERATURES PROFILE FOR
PTYPES. WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
WITH THE BATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL
AXIS OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CAN NOT COMPLETED RULE OUT AN ISOLATED POCKET OF
VALLEY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD ICING PROBLEMS NOT
EXPECTED.

COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
IN MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN SLOPES WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING AROUND
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES LATE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER...SPRINGLIKE AIR TO THE SOUTH OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...LEAVING ONLY A BRIEF
WINDOW IN THE LATE TUE TO WED TIME FRAME FOR WARM AIR AND LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS CARVING OUT A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING ON TOP OF AN ARCTIC HIGH...YET
AGAIN A FAVORABLE WEDGE SET UP FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUE MORNING...A NEW AREA
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS UNDER
THE MEAN TROUGH. IN BETWEEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH
FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW ACROSS THE
REGION...LEADING TO AN INITIAL SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
FEATURES...ALTHOUGH UNDERNEATH...THE COLD...DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERCOME THIS OBSTACLE AT THE SURFACE.

SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TUE WITH A
FAVORABLE WEDGE SETUP IN PLACE AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND DEEP MOISTURE TRACKING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION EXPERIENCED SUNDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDING ON DEPTH
AND DURATION OF COLD AIR AT ANY LOCATION. USING THE TOPDOWN WX
TOOL...A PREDOMINANCE OF -FZRA WAS INDICATED IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...WITH -FZRA/IP IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN BY AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SW LLJ AND CONTINUED WARM AIR INTRUSION EATING AWAY AT THE
WEDGE. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND
THE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT AND THE STRONG LLJ...WOULD NOT
EXPECT THIS NEXT WEDGE TO BE QUITE AS TENACIOUS AS THE ONE TODAY.

AFTER THE ISENTROPIC/WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES AWAY TUE
EVENING...A DRY SLOT WILL ADVECT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT SLOWED BY THE SW/PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. THUS...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE UPPER SUPPORT ON THIS END WILL BE WANING AS THE
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THE HEAVIEST QPF OF WHICH TRACKS MORE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. MORE ON QPF ISSUES IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT/EARLY THU...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...BY THU MORNING DRAPED FROM
NEAR ORF-ATL. THUS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE
CONTINUED LAGGING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
EJECTED...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE MEAN FLOW. THUS...MODERATE
RAIN WED NIGHT/EARLY THU COULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO MODERATE
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE EVEN BEFORE
DAYBREAK THU IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE EVALUATED IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
STORM COULD BE ON THE HORIZON FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
DOMINANCE OF A COLD AIR WEDGE TUE...AND THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR
LATE WED/EARLY THU. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DEPARTS CONTINUING INTO EARLY WED
AS LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THERE IS A
BRIEF WINDOW WED AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
LLJ CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN SOUTHEAST WV/FAR SW VA IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

AT SUNRISE THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL STILL BE SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...WITH STEADY OR SLOWING
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION WILL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING
FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED...WITH AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SUNDAY...

SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CREEP ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WIND
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

CONCERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN POTENTIAL COMBINATION
OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WHERE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS...MOST OF WHICH REMAINS INTACT DUE TO PERSISTENT SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND THE ADDED EFFECTS OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND HEAVY RAIN MID-WEEK. AS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE...THE
PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO AN APPROXIMATELY
24-36 HOUR WINDOW LATE TUE INTO WED EVENING BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
RETURNS. PRIOR TO TUE...LITTLE IF ANY MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK
CLOSER TO THE INITIAL SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN/OH VALLEY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS COULD AFFECT OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE SOME OF THE GREATEST SNOW PACK.
LOCALLY GENERATED AND WPC QPF IN OUR WESTERN MOST AREAS FOR THE
WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IS IN THE
1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THIS COULD STILL RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...BUT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. THE NEXT WAVE OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN. ONE OTHER ISSUE MIGHT
BE POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT MUCH OF THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH MANY DAYS BELOW 20. THIS COULD EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING IN CERTAIN SPOTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
OVERALL...A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/KK/PM
HYDROLOGY...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 012043
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION AND
THEN RAIN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED BECAUSE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO OR ABOVE FREEZING LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS ENDED. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

A 1039 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. WARM AIR WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. LEANED POPS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS
A BLEND OF RNK WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW AND GFS WHICH PULLS MOISTURE OUT
OF THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
GFS TONIGHT. UTILIZED WEATHER TOOL WITH GFS TEMPERATURES PROFILE FOR
PTYPES. WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
WITH THE BATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL
AXIS OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CAN NOT COMPLETED RULE OUT AN ISOLATED POCKET OF
VALLEY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD ICING PROBLEMS NOT
EXPECTED.

COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
IN MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN SLOPES WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING AROUND
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES LATE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER...SPRINGLIKE AIR TO THE SOUTH OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...LEAVING ONLY A BRIEF
WINDOW IN THE LATE TUE TO WED TIME FRAME FOR WARM AIR AND LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS CARVING OUT A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING ON TOP OF AN ARCTIC HIGH...YET
AGAIN A FAVORABLE WEDGE SET UP FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUE MORNING...A NEW AREA
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS UNDER
THE MEAN TROUGH. IN BETWEEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH
FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW ACROSS THE
REGION...LEADING TO AN INITIAL SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
FEATURES...ALTHOUGH UNDERNEATH...THE COLD...DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERCOME THIS OBSTACLE AT THE SURFACE.

SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TUE WITH A
FAVORABLE WEDGE SETUP IN PLACE AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND DEEP MOISTURE TRACKING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION EXPERIENCED SUNDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDING ON DEPTH
AND DURATION OF COLD AIR AT ANY LOCATION. USING THE TOPDOWN WX
TOOL...A PREDOMINANCE OF -FZRA WAS INDICATED IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...WITH -FZRA/IP IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN BY AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SW LLJ AND CONTINUED WARM AIR INTRUSION EATING AWAY AT THE
WEDGE. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND
THE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT AND THE STRONG LLJ...WOULD NOT
EXPECT THIS NEXT WEDGE TO BE QUITE AS TENACIOUS AS THE ONE TODAY.

AFTER THE ISENTROPIC/WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES AWAY TUE
EVENING...A DRY SLOT WILL ADVECT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT SLOWED BY THE SW/PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. THUS...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE UPPER SUPPORT ON THIS END WILL BE WANING AS THE
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THE HEAVIEST QPF OF WHICH TRACKS MORE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. MORE ON QPF ISSUES IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT/EARLY THU...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...BY THU MORNING DRAPED FROM
NEAR ORF-ATL. THUS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE
CONTINUED LAGGING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
EJECTED...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE MEAN FLOW. THUS...MODERATE
RAIN WED NIGHT/EARLY THU COULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO MODERATE
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE EVEN BEFORE
DAYBREAK THU IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE EVALUATED IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
STORM COULD BE ON THE HORIZON FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
DOMINANCE OF A COLD AIR WEDGE TUE...AND THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR
LATE WED/EARLY THU. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DEPARTS CONTINUING INTO EARLY WED
AS LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THERE IS A
BRIEF WINDOW WED AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
LLJ CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN SOUTHEAST WV/FAR SW VA IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

AT SUNRISE THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL STILL BE SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...WITH STEADY OR SLOWING
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION WILL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING
FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED...WITH AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SUNDAY...

SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CREEP ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WIND
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

CONCERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN POTENTIAL COMBINATION
OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WHERE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS...MOST OF WHICH REMAINS INTACT DUE TO PERSISTENT SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND THE ADDED EFFECTS OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND HEAVY RAIN MID-WEEK. AS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE...THE
PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO AN APPROXIMATELY
24-36 HOUR WINDOW LATE TUE INTO WED EVENING BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
RETURNS. PRIOR TO TUE...LITTLE IF ANY MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK
CLOSER TO THE INITIAL SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN/OH VALLEY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS COULD AFFECT OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE SOME OF THE GREATEST SNOW PACK.
LOCALLY GENERATED AND WPC QPF IN OUR WESTERN MOST AREAS FOR THE
WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IS IN THE
1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THIS COULD STILL RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...BUT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. THE NEXT WAVE OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN. ONE OTHER ISSUE MIGHT
BE POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT MUCH OF THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH MANY DAYS BELOW 20. THIS COULD EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING IN CERTAIN SPOTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
OVERALL...A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/KK/PM
HYDROLOGY...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 012043
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION AND
THEN RAIN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED BECAUSE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO OR ABOVE FREEZING LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS ENDED. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

A 1039 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. WARM AIR WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. LEANED POPS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS
A BLEND OF RNK WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW AND GFS WHICH PULLS MOISTURE OUT
OF THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
GFS TONIGHT. UTILIZED WEATHER TOOL WITH GFS TEMPERATURES PROFILE FOR
PTYPES. WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
WITH THE BATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL
AXIS OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CAN NOT COMPLETED RULE OUT AN ISOLATED POCKET OF
VALLEY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD ICING PROBLEMS NOT
EXPECTED.

COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
IN MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN SLOPES WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING AROUND
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES LATE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER...SPRINGLIKE AIR TO THE SOUTH OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...LEAVING ONLY A BRIEF
WINDOW IN THE LATE TUE TO WED TIME FRAME FOR WARM AIR AND LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS CARVING OUT A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING ON TOP OF AN ARCTIC HIGH...YET
AGAIN A FAVORABLE WEDGE SET UP FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUE MORNING...A NEW AREA
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS UNDER
THE MEAN TROUGH. IN BETWEEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH
FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW ACROSS THE
REGION...LEADING TO AN INITIAL SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
FEATURES...ALTHOUGH UNDERNEATH...THE COLD...DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERCOME THIS OBSTACLE AT THE SURFACE.

SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TUE WITH A
FAVORABLE WEDGE SETUP IN PLACE AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND DEEP MOISTURE TRACKING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION EXPERIENCED SUNDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDING ON DEPTH
AND DURATION OF COLD AIR AT ANY LOCATION. USING THE TOPDOWN WX
TOOL...A PREDOMINANCE OF -FZRA WAS INDICATED IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...WITH -FZRA/IP IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN BY AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SW LLJ AND CONTINUED WARM AIR INTRUSION EATING AWAY AT THE
WEDGE. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND
THE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT AND THE STRONG LLJ...WOULD NOT
EXPECT THIS NEXT WEDGE TO BE QUITE AS TENACIOUS AS THE ONE TODAY.

AFTER THE ISENTROPIC/WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES AWAY TUE
EVENING...A DRY SLOT WILL ADVECT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT SLOWED BY THE SW/PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. THUS...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE UPPER SUPPORT ON THIS END WILL BE WANING AS THE
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THE HEAVIEST QPF OF WHICH TRACKS MORE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. MORE ON QPF ISSUES IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT/EARLY THU...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...BY THU MORNING DRAPED FROM
NEAR ORF-ATL. THUS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE
CONTINUED LAGGING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
EJECTED...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE MEAN FLOW. THUS...MODERATE
RAIN WED NIGHT/EARLY THU COULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO MODERATE
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE EVEN BEFORE
DAYBREAK THU IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE EVALUATED IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
STORM COULD BE ON THE HORIZON FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
DOMINANCE OF A COLD AIR WEDGE TUE...AND THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR
LATE WED/EARLY THU. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DEPARTS CONTINUING INTO EARLY WED
AS LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THERE IS A
BRIEF WINDOW WED AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
LLJ CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN SOUTHEAST WV/FAR SW VA IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

AT SUNRISE THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL STILL BE SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...WITH STEADY OR SLOWING
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION WILL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING
FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED...WITH AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SUNDAY...

SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CREEP ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WIND
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

CONCERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN POTENTIAL COMBINATION
OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WHERE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS...MOST OF WHICH REMAINS INTACT DUE TO PERSISTENT SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND THE ADDED EFFECTS OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND HEAVY RAIN MID-WEEK. AS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE...THE
PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO AN APPROXIMATELY
24-36 HOUR WINDOW LATE TUE INTO WED EVENING BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
RETURNS. PRIOR TO TUE...LITTLE IF ANY MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK
CLOSER TO THE INITIAL SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN/OH VALLEY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS COULD AFFECT OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE SOME OF THE GREATEST SNOW PACK.
LOCALLY GENERATED AND WPC QPF IN OUR WESTERN MOST AREAS FOR THE
WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IS IN THE
1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THIS COULD STILL RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...BUT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. THE NEXT WAVE OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN. ONE OTHER ISSUE MIGHT
BE POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT MUCH OF THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH MANY DAYS BELOW 20. THIS COULD EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING IN CERTAIN SPOTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
OVERALL...A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/KK/PM
HYDROLOGY...RAB





000
FXUS61 KRNK 012043
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION AND
THEN RAIN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED BECAUSE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO OR ABOVE FREEZING LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS ENDED. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

A 1039 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. WARM AIR WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. LEANED POPS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS
A BLEND OF RNK WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW AND GFS WHICH PULLS MOISTURE OUT
OF THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
GFS TONIGHT. UTILIZED WEATHER TOOL WITH GFS TEMPERATURES PROFILE FOR
PTYPES. WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
WITH THE BATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL
AXIS OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CAN NOT COMPLETED RULE OUT AN ISOLATED POCKET OF
VALLEY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD ICING PROBLEMS NOT
EXPECTED.

COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
IN MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN SLOPES WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING AROUND
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES LATE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER...SPRINGLIKE AIR TO THE SOUTH OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...LEAVING ONLY A BRIEF
WINDOW IN THE LATE TUE TO WED TIME FRAME FOR WARM AIR AND LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS CARVING OUT A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGING ON TOP OF AN ARCTIC HIGH...YET
AGAIN A FAVORABLE WEDGE SET UP FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUE MORNING...A NEW AREA
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS UNDER
THE MEAN TROUGH. IN BETWEEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH
FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW ACROSS THE
REGION...LEADING TO AN INITIAL SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
FEATURES...ALTHOUGH UNDERNEATH...THE COLD...DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERCOME THIS OBSTACLE AT THE SURFACE.

SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TUE WITH A
FAVORABLE WEDGE SETUP IN PLACE AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND DEEP MOISTURE TRACKING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION EXPERIENCED SUNDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDING ON DEPTH
AND DURATION OF COLD AIR AT ANY LOCATION. USING THE TOPDOWN WX
TOOL...A PREDOMINANCE OF -FZRA WAS INDICATED IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...WITH -FZRA/IP IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN BY AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SW LLJ AND CONTINUED WARM AIR INTRUSION EATING AWAY AT THE
WEDGE. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND
THE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT AND THE STRONG LLJ...WOULD NOT
EXPECT THIS NEXT WEDGE TO BE QUITE AS TENACIOUS AS THE ONE TODAY.

AFTER THE ISENTROPIC/WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES AWAY TUE
EVENING...A DRY SLOT WILL ADVECT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT SLOWED BY THE SW/PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. THUS...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE UPPER SUPPORT ON THIS END WILL BE WANING AS THE
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THE HEAVIEST QPF OF WHICH TRACKS MORE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. MORE ON QPF ISSUES IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT/EARLY THU...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...BY THU MORNING DRAPED FROM
NEAR ORF-ATL. THUS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE
CONTINUED LAGGING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
EJECTED...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE MEAN FLOW. THUS...MODERATE
RAIN WED NIGHT/EARLY THU COULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO MODERATE
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE EVEN BEFORE
DAYBREAK THU IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE EVALUATED IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
STORM COULD BE ON THE HORIZON FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
DOMINANCE OF A COLD AIR WEDGE TUE...AND THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR
LATE WED/EARLY THU. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DEPARTS CONTINUING INTO EARLY WED
AS LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THERE IS A
BRIEF WINDOW WED AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
LLJ CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN SOUTHEAST WV/FAR SW VA IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

AT SUNRISE THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL STILL BE SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...WITH STEADY OR SLOWING
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION WILL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING
FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED...WITH AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SUNDAY...

SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CREEP ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WIND
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...

CONCERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN POTENTIAL COMBINATION
OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WHERE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS...MOST OF WHICH REMAINS INTACT DUE TO PERSISTENT SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND THE ADDED EFFECTS OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND HEAVY RAIN MID-WEEK. AS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE...THE
PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO AN APPROXIMATELY
24-36 HOUR WINDOW LATE TUE INTO WED EVENING BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
RETURNS. PRIOR TO TUE...LITTLE IF ANY MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK
CLOSER TO THE INITIAL SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN/OH VALLEY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS COULD AFFECT OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE SOME OF THE GREATEST SNOW PACK.
LOCALLY GENERATED AND WPC QPF IN OUR WESTERN MOST AREAS FOR THE
WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IS IN THE
1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THIS COULD STILL RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...BUT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. THE NEXT WAVE OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN. ONE OTHER ISSUE MIGHT
BE POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT MUCH OF THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING...WITH MANY DAYS BELOW 20. THIS COULD EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING IN CERTAIN SPOTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
OVERALL...A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/KK/PM
HYDROLOGY...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011744
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1043 AM EST SUNDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST AS WARMER AIR
(TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING) PUSHING IN WITH LACK OF PCPN.
THE REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIMMED HEADLINES AS WARM AIR ADVANCES. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBS AND
MODELS.


AS OF 905 AM EST SUNDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS POSTED FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK AS THE WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST PUSHES
INTO OUR REGION ENDING THE THREAT. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM TRACE
TO AROUND A 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRFARW AND GFS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDING
TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE PUSH OF THE WARM AIR. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.


AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SUNDAY...

SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CREEP ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIEDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND
WIND DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011744
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1043 AM EST SUNDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST AS WARMER AIR
(TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING) PUSHING IN WITH LACK OF PCPN.
THE REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIMMED HEADLINES AS WARM AIR ADVANCES. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBS AND
MODELS.


AS OF 905 AM EST SUNDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS POSTED FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK AS THE WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST PUSHES
INTO OUR REGION ENDING THE THREAT. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM TRACE
TO AROUND A 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRFARW AND GFS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDING
TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE PUSH OF THE WARM AIR. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.


AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SUNDAY...

SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CREEP ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIEDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND
WIND DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011744
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1043 AM EST SUNDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST AS WARMER AIR
(TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING) PUSHING IN WITH LACK OF PCPN.
THE REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIMMED HEADLINES AS WARM AIR ADVANCES. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBS AND
MODELS.


AS OF 905 AM EST SUNDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS POSTED FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK AS THE WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST PUSHES
INTO OUR REGION ENDING THE THREAT. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM TRACE
TO AROUND A 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRFARW AND GFS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDING
TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE PUSH OF THE WARM AIR. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.


AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SUNDAY...

SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CREEP ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIEDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND
WIND DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011744
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1043 AM EST SUNDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST AS WARMER AIR
(TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING) PUSHING IN WITH LACK OF PCPN.
THE REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIMMED HEADLINES AS WARM AIR ADVANCES. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBS AND
MODELS.


AS OF 905 AM EST SUNDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS POSTED FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK AS THE WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST PUSHES
INTO OUR REGION ENDING THE THREAT. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM TRACE
TO AROUND A 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRFARW AND GFS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDING
TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE PUSH OF THE WARM AIR. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.


AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SUNDAY...

SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CREEP ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIEDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND
WIND DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB- VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1044 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1043 AM EST SUNDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST AS WARMER AIR
(TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING) PUSHING IN WITH LACK OF PCPN.
THE REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIMMED HEADLINES AS WARM AIR ADVANCES. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBS AND
MODELS.


AS OF 905 AM EST SUNDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS POSTED FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK AS THE WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST PUSHES
INTO OUR REGION ENDING THE THREAT. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM TRACE
TO AROUND A 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRFARW AND GFS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDING
TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE PUSH OF THE WARM AIR. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.


AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST SUNDAY...

MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
CONTINUED LOWERING OF BASES AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS LITTLE PRECIP INITIALLY...EXPECT CIGS TO
STAY HIGHER AND BE SLOWER TO DROP EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN
CORRIDOR OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AROUND KDAN WHERE A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND -FZRA WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE A BIT TRICKY AS TO WHEN PRECIP WILL REACH THE
SURFACE GIVEN DRY AIR AND CURRENT SPLIT IN ECHOES ON RADAR OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS. APPEARS SITES SUCH AS KLWB MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KLWB AND KDAN.

OTHERWISE AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD AIR OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT THE
ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. KBLF MAY ONLY SEE
PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS SO INCLUDING LESS OF A MIXTURE
THERE. VERY LITTLE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING
CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR
IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO
USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST
CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF
LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1044 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1043 AM EST SUNDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST AS WARMER AIR
(TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING) PUSHING IN WITH LACK OF PCPN.
THE REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIMMED HEADLINES AS WARM AIR ADVANCES. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBS AND
MODELS.


AS OF 905 AM EST SUNDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS POSTED FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK AS THE WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST PUSHES
INTO OUR REGION ENDING THE THREAT. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM TRACE
TO AROUND A 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRFARW AND GFS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDING
TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE PUSH OF THE WARM AIR. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.


AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST SUNDAY...

MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
CONTINUED LOWERING OF BASES AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS LITTLE PRECIP INITIALLY...EXPECT CIGS TO
STAY HIGHER AND BE SLOWER TO DROP EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN
CORRIDOR OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AROUND KDAN WHERE A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND -FZRA WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE A BIT TRICKY AS TO WHEN PRECIP WILL REACH THE
SURFACE GIVEN DRY AIR AND CURRENT SPLIT IN ECHOES ON RADAR OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS. APPEARS SITES SUCH AS KLWB MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KLWB AND KDAN.

OTHERWISE AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD AIR OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT THE
ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. KBLF MAY ONLY SEE
PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS SO INCLUDING LESS OF A MIXTURE
THERE. VERY LITTLE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING
CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR
IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO
USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST
CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF
LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1044 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1043 AM EST SUNDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST AS WARMER AIR
(TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING) PUSHING IN WITH LACK OF PCPN.
THE REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIMMED HEADLINES AS WARM AIR ADVANCES. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBS AND
MODELS.


AS OF 905 AM EST SUNDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS POSTED FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK AS THE WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST PUSHES
INTO OUR REGION ENDING THE THREAT. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM TRACE
TO AROUND A 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRFARW AND GFS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDING
TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE PUSH OF THE WARM AIR. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.


AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST SUNDAY...

MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
CONTINUED LOWERING OF BASES AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS LITTLE PRECIP INITIALLY...EXPECT CIGS TO
STAY HIGHER AND BE SLOWER TO DROP EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN
CORRIDOR OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AROUND KDAN WHERE A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND -FZRA WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE A BIT TRICKY AS TO WHEN PRECIP WILL REACH THE
SURFACE GIVEN DRY AIR AND CURRENT SPLIT IN ECHOES ON RADAR OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS. APPEARS SITES SUCH AS KLWB MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KLWB AND KDAN.

OTHERWISE AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD AIR OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT THE
ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. KBLF MAY ONLY SEE
PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS SO INCLUDING LESS OF A MIXTURE
THERE. VERY LITTLE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING
CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR
IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO
USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST
CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF
LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1044 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1043 AM EST SUNDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST AS WARMER AIR
(TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING) PUSHING IN WITH LACK OF PCPN.
THE REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIMMED HEADLINES AS WARM AIR ADVANCES. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBS AND
MODELS.


AS OF 905 AM EST SUNDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS POSTED FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK AS THE WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST PUSHES
INTO OUR REGION ENDING THE THREAT. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM TRACE
TO AROUND A 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRFARW AND GFS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDING
TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE PUSH OF THE WARM AIR. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.


AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST SUNDAY...

MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
CONTINUED LOWERING OF BASES AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS LITTLE PRECIP INITIALLY...EXPECT CIGS TO
STAY HIGHER AND BE SLOWER TO DROP EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN
CORRIDOR OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AROUND KDAN WHERE A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND -FZRA WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE A BIT TRICKY AS TO WHEN PRECIP WILL REACH THE
SURFACE GIVEN DRY AIR AND CURRENT SPLIT IN ECHOES ON RADAR OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS. APPEARS SITES SUCH AS KLWB MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KLWB AND KDAN.

OTHERWISE AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD AIR OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT THE
ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. KBLF MAY ONLY SEE
PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS SO INCLUDING LESS OF A MIXTURE
THERE. VERY LITTLE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING
CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR
IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO
USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST
CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF
LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011407
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
907 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EST SUNDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS POSTED FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK AS THE WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST PUSHES
INTO OUR REGION ENDING THE THREAT. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM TRACE
TO AROUND A 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRFARW AND GFS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDING
TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE PUSH OF THE WARM AIR. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.


AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST SUNDAY...

MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
CONTINUED LOWERING OF BASES AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS LITTLE PRECIP INITIALLY...EXPECT CIGS TO
STAY HIGHER AND BE SLOWER TO DROP EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN
CORRIDOR OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AROUND KDAN WHERE A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND -FZRA WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE A BIT TRICKY AS TO WHEN PRECIP WILL REACH THE
SURFACE GIVEN DRY AIR AND CURRENT SPLIT IN ECHOES ON RADAR OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS. APPEARS SITES SUCH AS KLWB MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KLWB AND KDAN.

OTHERWISE AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD AIR OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT THE
ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. KBLF MAY ONLY SEE
PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS SO INCLUDING LESS OF A MIXTURE
THERE. VERY LITTLE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING
CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR
IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO
USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST
CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF
LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 011407
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
907 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EST SUNDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS POSTED FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK AS THE WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST PUSHES
INTO OUR REGION ENDING THE THREAT. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM TRACE
TO AROUND A 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRFARW AND GFS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDING
TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE PUSH OF THE WARM AIR. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.


AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST SUNDAY...

MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
CONTINUED LOWERING OF BASES AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS LITTLE PRECIP INITIALLY...EXPECT CIGS TO
STAY HIGHER AND BE SLOWER TO DROP EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN
CORRIDOR OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AROUND KDAN WHERE A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND -FZRA WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE A BIT TRICKY AS TO WHEN PRECIP WILL REACH THE
SURFACE GIVEN DRY AIR AND CURRENT SPLIT IN ECHOES ON RADAR OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS. APPEARS SITES SUCH AS KLWB MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KLWB AND KDAN.

OTHERWISE AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD AIR OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT THE
ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. KBLF MAY ONLY SEE
PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS SO INCLUDING LESS OF A MIXTURE
THERE. VERY LITTLE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING
CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR
IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO
USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST
CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF
LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011126
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
626 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST SUNDAY...

MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
CONTINUED LOWERING OF BASES AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS LITTLE PRECIP INITIALLY...EXPECT CIGS TO
STAY HIGHER AND BE SLOWER TO DROP EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN
CORRIDOR OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AROUND KDAN WHERE A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND -FZRA WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE A BIT TRICKY AS TO WHEN PRECIP WILL REACH THE
SURFACE GIVEN DRY AIR AND CURRENT SPLIT IN ECHOES ON RADAR OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS. APPEARS SITES SUCH AS KLWB MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KLWB AND KDAN.

OTHERWISE AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD AIR OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT THE
ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. KBLF MAY ONLY SEE
PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS SO INCLUDING LESS OF A MIXTURE
THERE. VERY LITTLE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING
CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR
IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO
USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST
CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF
LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011126
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
626 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST SUNDAY...

MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
CONTINUED LOWERING OF BASES AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS LITTLE PRECIP INITIALLY...EXPECT CIGS TO
STAY HIGHER AND BE SLOWER TO DROP EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN
CORRIDOR OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AROUND KDAN WHERE A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND -FZRA WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE A BIT TRICKY AS TO WHEN PRECIP WILL REACH THE
SURFACE GIVEN DRY AIR AND CURRENT SPLIT IN ECHOES ON RADAR OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS. APPEARS SITES SUCH AS KLWB MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KLWB AND KDAN.

OTHERWISE AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD AIR OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT THE
ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. KBLF MAY ONLY SEE
PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS SO INCLUDING LESS OF A MIXTURE
THERE. VERY LITTLE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING
CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR
IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO
USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST
CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF
LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIZZLE...THEN AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KBLF/KLWB.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010906
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ONSET OF LOW CLOUD THIS EVENING. THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...THE MODELS TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CIGS. WILL
ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE INTRODUCING
ANYTHING BLOW VFR.

AREA OF MOISTURE TO WATCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THE
PRECIPITATION OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD
AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT
THE ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY.

STILL NO MORE THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS
SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010906
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. MOIST
AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST SUNDAY...

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DRY WEDGE ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WHICH IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE
NW AND RETURN FLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TURNED A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC IN REGARDS TO CONNECTING THESE AREAS OF
LIFT UNTIL THE PRECIP TURNS OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF NOW OVER THE WEST. THIS SEEN
WITH THE EASTWARD TRENDS OFF BOTH THE GFS/NAM AND ALMOST TOTAL LACK OF
PRECIP HEADING UP FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE 00Z EC GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE.

HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP THE CAD FROM
THE SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF MOUNTAINS/SW BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE THEN TURNING MORE
EAST/NE WHILE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING. THINK THE CORRIDOR OF
SNOW TO THE NW WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER LIFT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY CLIP THE NW CORNER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW SO KEPT AN
INCH OR TWO THERE. OTRW LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
SLEET BANDS AND POCKETS OF SNOW STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
ON AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THEN SWITCHING TO MORE
LIQUID/FZRA AS THE LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT WINS OUT AND WET BULBING
DECREASES ESPCLY FROM MID MORNING ON. HOWEVER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST MAY BE DECREASING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO THE NW NC RIDGES SEEING ONLY
SPOTTY AMOUNTS. APPEARS BEST SHOT AT ICING WILL BE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INITIALLY...THEN
EAST WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESIDE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS A GOOD TENTH OR SO ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
SEEN FROM EARLIER GUIDANCE.

THUS TRIMMED BACK TOTALS SOME PER LATEST WWD AND THE FORECAST WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DUE TO LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN
BUT LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN VERY TRICKY
GIVEN MUCH WARMER MOS VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON DRY SLOT
ESPCLY WEST AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR/CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. FOR
NOW BUMPED UP HIGHS A GOOD CAT OR SO FAR WEST WHERE WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AND WARMED THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MORE OF
A LATE DAY HIGH SCENARIO PENDING PRECIP COVERAGE.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THIS EVENING LEAVING A RESIDUAL AXIS OF WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIP OVER
THE NW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
SLOPES LATE. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ/FOG AROUND DURING THE EVENING
INCLUDING POCKETS OF VALLEY -FZRA NORTH/NE OTRW MOST RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NW. DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
INCREASING/GUSTY NW WINDS MOUNTAINS WITH THE 85H FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TAPERING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
NW SLOPES WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY IF NOT RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION BOOTS THE WEDGE OUT BEFORE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES NW LATE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
DID TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MAV MOS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS THAT
GET WARMER DURING THE DAY MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN
END TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AND...
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL
FIND OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WE CAN ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE GREATEST ICING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NEW/ROANOKE
VALLEYS NORTH THROUGH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND WE GO TO PLAIN
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE QPF LOAD AND HOPEFULLY WORK TO ALLEVIATE
POTENTIAL FLOODING...BUT THIS IS A VERY FINE LINE AND WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE ENERGETIC AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SINCE THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...AS MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS SUCH... EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ONSET OF LOW CLOUD THIS EVENING. THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...THE MODELS TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CIGS. WILL
ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE INTRODUCING
ANYTHING BLOW VFR.

AREA OF MOISTURE TO WATCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THE
PRECIPITATION OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD
AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT
THE ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY.

STILL NO MORE THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS
SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010338
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1038 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-MS
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SUNDAY. MOIST AIR
FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIR RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST SATURDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH THINK IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK BEFORE WE SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. ONSET IS STILL FORECAST IN THE 3-5 AM TIME FRAME
AND THIS STILL LOOKS OK.

WARM AIR IS BEGINNING TO FLOW NORTH IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. AREA TO FOCUS...HOWEVER...IS
NOT JUST THE RADAR RETURNS OVER THE MS VALLEY...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...NC COUNTIES...AROUND
5AM...THEN EXPANDING NORTH INTO VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN
5-9AM.

THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING WAS STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING...
SUPPORTING A P-TYPE OF SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO FORECAST THIS TO
CHANGE BY 12Z/7AM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE 0 DEG C BETWEEN
3-7KFT AGL. THIS WARM NOSE WILL THEN MELT ANY SNOW
FLAKES...RESULTING IN EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE
SURFACE.

COLD AIR WITHIN THE FIRST 1-2KFT AGL WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY...REINFORCED BY A 1040 MB ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS HIGH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RETREAT...MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THE COLD AIR SHOULD SLOWLY BUT
SURELY MODIFY WITH TIME. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY
HOWEVER TO COMPLETELY RID THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES...ESP THE
FOOTHILLS JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND WITHIN THE ROANOKE AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY WARM
THE SOONEST PER THE WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY FROM TOP DOWN.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...
STARTING THE EARLIEST IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT DEVELOPS FIRST
AND SPREADS MOISTURE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY
SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...SREF AND
NAM...THEN GFS SOLUTION. HARD TO TELL EXACT ONSET TIME WITH
MOISTURE RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR WHICH COULD DELAY
START TIME DUE TO PRECIP EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
IF THERE IS A DELAY...IT SHOULD ONLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO FROM
CURRENT ONSET TIMES ALREADY DISCUSSED.

FOR PTYPES...USED A TOP DOWN APPROACH...WHICH SUPPORTS SNOW/SLEET
AT THE ONSET...THEN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NON-DIURNAL...COLDEST AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...THEN
HOLDING STEADY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE INCHING UPWARD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE KEY TO THE WARM UP IS GETTING THE ARCTIC
HIGH TO RETREAT ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WEST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
ALOT EARLIER. PLACES LIKE BLUEFIELD...TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...MARION...
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF BOONE AND WEST JEFFERSON WILL
EXPERIENCE THE TEMPS GETTING ABOVE 32 DEG F B4 ANYONE ELSE.

ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED TO BE THE GREATEST SUNDAY MORNING
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THAT 80 PERCENT OF THE QPF WILL FALL
WITHING THE 12Z/7AM-18Z/1PM TIME FRAME...WITH AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
/0.10/ TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
ATTM...MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN CONVERTED INTO SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
ICE AND ONLY TRACE TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS...OF SLEET/SNOW. WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...A LOT OF THIS MAY FALL AS JUST PLAIN OL
RAIN.

WARMER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS SUNDAY EVENING IN OUR FOOTHILL COUNTIES FROM ROA/LYH
NORTHWARD WITH THE THERMOMETER NUDGING ABOVE 32 DEG F. IT WILL BE
A SLOW PROCESS...ESP SINCE WE HAVE ALL THIS SNOW ON THE GROUND
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARTIALLY
SPLIT/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST STATES GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT
REGION AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ANY
UPSLOPE -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY
MONDAY. OVERALL MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE
WEST/MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED EAST
TOWARD THE COAST SETTING UP IN YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE WEDGE
POSITION...SUPPORTED EVEN MORE SO ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
GULF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC WARM
FRONTAL LIFT BEGINS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON TOP OF THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG LLJ MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD ERODE THE WEDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
QUICK AS THE MODELS WOULD SHOW. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. THIS COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO OR MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT UPPER TROUGHING LAGS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN
ADDITION...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...FURTHER DELAYING THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA.

IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FIRST...SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. SECOND...THE
NEXT THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. THIRD...SNOW MELT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OR BELOW FREEZING AND TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SW
VA/SE WV AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE WEDGE
ERODES ACROSS THAT REGION FIRST.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF WEDGING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 50KT TO 60KT RANGE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS MORE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MAKING FOR PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW MUCH SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE COMING DAYS IN ADDITION TO ITS WATER EQUIVALENCY.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS RECEIVED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A THIRD FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS HOW FROZEN THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE REGION...AS FROZEN
GROUND RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST/ALL OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE
DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF.

AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING AND
REDUCED RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
SLOWING/STALLING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SUCH...
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ONSET OF LOW CLOUD THIS EVENING. THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...THE MODELS TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CIGS. WILL
ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE INTRODUING
ANYTHING BLOW VFR.

AREA OF MOISTURE TO WATCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THE
PRECIPITATION OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHAINS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD
AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT
THE ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY.

STILL NO MORE THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS
SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010331
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1031 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST SATURDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH THINK IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK BEFORE WE SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. ONSET IS STILL FORECAST IN THE 3-5 AM TIME FRAME
AND THIS STILL LOOKS OK.

WARM AIR IS BEGINNING TO FLOW NORTH IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. AREA TO FOCUS...HOWEVER...IS
NOT JUST THE RADAR RETURNS OVER THE MS VALLEY...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...NC COUNTIES...AROUND
5AM...THEN EXPANDING NORTH INTO VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN
5-9AM.

THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING WAS STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING...
SUPPORTING A P-TYPE OF SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO FORECAST THIS TO
CHANGE BY 12Z/7AM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE 0 DEG C BETWEEN
3-7KFT AGL. THIS WARM NOSE WILL THEN MELT ANY SNOW
FLAKES...RESULTING IN EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE
SURFACE.

COLD AIR WITHIN THE FIRST 1-2KFT AGL WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY...REINFORCED BY A 1040 MB ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS HIGH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RETREAT...MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THE COLD AIR SHOULD SLOWLY BUT
SURELY MODIFY WITH TIME. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY
HOWEVER TO COMPLETELY RID THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES...ESP THE
FOOTHILLS JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND WITHIN THE ROANOKE AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY WARM
THE SOONEST PER THE WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY FROM TOP DOWN.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...
STARTING THE EARLIEST IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT DEVELOPS FIRST
AND SPREADS MOISTURE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY
SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...SREF AND
NAM...THEN GFS SOLUTION. HARD TO TELL EXACT ONSET TIME WITH
MOISTURE RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR WHICH COULD DELAY
START TIME DUE TO PRECIP EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
IF THERE IS A DELAY...IT SHOULD ONLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO FROM
CURRENT ONSET TIMES ALREADY DISCUSSED.

FOR PTYPES...USED A TOP DOWN APPROACH...WHICH SUPPORTS SNOW/SLEET
AT THE ONSET...THEN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NON-DIURNAL...COLDEST AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...THEN
HOLDING STEADY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE INCHING UPWARD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE KEY TO THE WARM UP IS GETTING THE ARCTIC
HIGH TO RETREAT ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WEST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
ALOT EARLIER. PLACES LIKE BLUEFIELD...TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...MARION...
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF BOONE AND WEST JEFFERSON WILL
EXPERIENCE THE TEMPS GETTING ABOVE 32 DEG F B4 ANYONE ELSE.

ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED TO BE THE GREATEST SUNDAY MORNING
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THAT 80 PERCENT OF THE QPF WILL FALL
WITHING THE 12Z/7AM-18Z/1PM TIME FRAME...WITH AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
/0.10/ TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
ATTM...MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN CONVERTED INTO SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
ICE AND ONLY TRACE TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS...OF SLEET/SNOW. WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...A LOT OF THIS MAY FALL AS JUST PLAIN OL
RAIN.

WARMER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS SUNDAY EVENING IN OUR FOOTHILL COUNTIES FROM ROA/LYH
NORTHWARD WITH THE THERMOMETER NUDGING ABOVE 32 DEG F. IT WILL BE
A SLOW PROCESS...ESP SINCE WE HAVE ALL THIS SNOW ON THE GROUND
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARTIALLY
SPLIT/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST STATES GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT
REGION AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ANY
UPSLOPE -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY
MONDAY. OVERALL MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE
WEST/MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED EAST
TOWARD THE COAST SETTING UP IN YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE WEDGE
POSITION...SUPPORTED EVEN MORE SO ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
GULF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC WARM
FRONTAL LIFT BEGINS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON TOP OF THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG LLJ MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD ERODE THE WEDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
QUICK AS THE MODELS WOULD SHOW. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. THIS COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO OR MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT UPPER TROUGHING LAGS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN
ADDITION...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...FURTHER DELAYING THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA.

IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FIRST...SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. SECOND...THE
NEXT THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. THIRD...SNOW MELT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OR BELOW FREEZING AND TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SW
VA/SE WV AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE WEDGE
ERODES ACROSS THAT REGION FIRST.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF WEDGING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 50KT TO 60KT RANGE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS MORE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MAKING FOR PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW MUCH SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE COMING DAYS IN ADDITION TO ITS WATER EQUIVALENCY.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS RECEIVED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A THIRD FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS HOW FROZEN THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE REGION...AS FROZEN
GROUND RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST/ALL OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE
DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF.

AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING AND
REDUCED RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
SLOWING/STALLING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SUCH...
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ONSET OF LOW CLOUD THIS EVENING. THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...THE MODELS TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CIGS. WILL
ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE INTRODUING
ANYTHING BLOW VFR.

AREA OF MOISTURE TO WATCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THE
PRECIPITATION OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHAINS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD
AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT
THE ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY.

STILL NO MORE THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS
SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010331
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1031 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST SATURDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH THINK IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK BEFORE WE SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. ONSET IS STILL FORECAST IN THE 3-5 AM TIME FRAME
AND THIS STILL LOOKS OK.

WARM AIR IS BEGINNING TO FLOW NORTH IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. AREA TO FOCUS...HOWEVER...IS
NOT JUST THE RADAR RETURNS OVER THE MS VALLEY...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...NC COUNTIES...AROUND
5AM...THEN EXPANDING NORTH INTO VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN
5-9AM.

THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING WAS STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING...
SUPPORTING A P-TYPE OF SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO FORECAST THIS TO
CHANGE BY 12Z/7AM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE 0 DEG C BETWEEN
3-7KFT AGL. THIS WARM NOSE WILL THEN MELT ANY SNOW
FLAKES...RESULTING IN EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE
SURFACE.

COLD AIR WITHIN THE FIRST 1-2KFT AGL WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY...REINFORCED BY A 1040 MB ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS HIGH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RETREAT...MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THE COLD AIR SHOULD SLOWLY BUT
SURELY MODIFY WITH TIME. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY
HOWEVER TO COMPLETELY RID THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES...ESP THE
FOOTHILLS JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND WITHIN THE ROANOKE AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY WARM
THE SOONEST PER THE WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY FROM TOP DOWN.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...
STARTING THE EARLIEST IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT DEVELOPS FIRST
AND SPREADS MOISTURE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY
SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...SREF AND
NAM...THEN GFS SOLUTION. HARD TO TELL EXACT ONSET TIME WITH
MOISTURE RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR WHICH COULD DELAY
START TIME DUE TO PRECIP EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
IF THERE IS A DELAY...IT SHOULD ONLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO FROM
CURRENT ONSET TIMES ALREADY DISCUSSED.

FOR PTYPES...USED A TOP DOWN APPROACH...WHICH SUPPORTS SNOW/SLEET
AT THE ONSET...THEN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NON-DIURNAL...COLDEST AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...THEN
HOLDING STEADY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE INCHING UPWARD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE KEY TO THE WARM UP IS GETTING THE ARCTIC
HIGH TO RETREAT ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WEST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
ALOT EARLIER. PLACES LIKE BLUEFIELD...TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...MARION...
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF BOONE AND WEST JEFFERSON WILL
EXPERIENCE THE TEMPS GETTING ABOVE 32 DEG F B4 ANYONE ELSE.

ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED TO BE THE GREATEST SUNDAY MORNING
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THAT 80 PERCENT OF THE QPF WILL FALL
WITHING THE 12Z/7AM-18Z/1PM TIME FRAME...WITH AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
/0.10/ TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
ATTM...MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN CONVERTED INTO SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
ICE AND ONLY TRACE TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS...OF SLEET/SNOW. WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...A LOT OF THIS MAY FALL AS JUST PLAIN OL
RAIN.

WARMER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS SUNDAY EVENING IN OUR FOOTHILL COUNTIES FROM ROA/LYH
NORTHWARD WITH THE THERMOMETER NUDGING ABOVE 32 DEG F. IT WILL BE
A SLOW PROCESS...ESP SINCE WE HAVE ALL THIS SNOW ON THE GROUND
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARTIALLY
SPLIT/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST STATES GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT
REGION AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ANY
UPSLOPE -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY
MONDAY. OVERALL MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE
WEST/MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED EAST
TOWARD THE COAST SETTING UP IN YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE WEDGE
POSITION...SUPPORTED EVEN MORE SO ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
GULF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC WARM
FRONTAL LIFT BEGINS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON TOP OF THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG LLJ MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD ERODE THE WEDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
QUICK AS THE MODELS WOULD SHOW. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. THIS COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO OR MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT UPPER TROUGHING LAGS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN
ADDITION...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...FURTHER DELAYING THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA.

IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FIRST...SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. SECOND...THE
NEXT THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. THIRD...SNOW MELT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OR BELOW FREEZING AND TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SW
VA/SE WV AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE WEDGE
ERODES ACROSS THAT REGION FIRST.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF WEDGING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 50KT TO 60KT RANGE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS MORE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MAKING FOR PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW MUCH SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE COMING DAYS IN ADDITION TO ITS WATER EQUIVALENCY.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS RECEIVED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A THIRD FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS HOW FROZEN THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE REGION...AS FROZEN
GROUND RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST/ALL OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE
DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF.

AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING AND
REDUCED RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
SLOWING/STALLING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SUCH...
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ONSET OF LOW CLOUD THIS EVENING. THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...THE MODELS TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CIGS. WILL
ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE INTRODUING
ANYTHING BLOW VFR.

AREA OF MOISTURE TO WATCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THE
PRECIPITATION OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHAINS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD
AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT
THE ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY.

STILL NO MORE THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS
SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010011
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
711 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 408 PM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. POSTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR A WINTRY
MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. STARTED THE EARLIEST IN
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT DEVELOPS FIRST AND SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...SREF AND NAM...THEN GFS SOLUTION. HARD TO
TELL ONSET WITH MOISTURE RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS REGION. USED A TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR PYTPES DURING THE
PERIOD. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SPREADING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S...STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING LATE WITHIN
THE SURFACE- 85H WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RUN OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
AROUND AN INCH ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA. ICING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE/COATING TO UP
TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE POSSIBLE.
THE WARM AIR WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND A SNOW
PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR...THE COLD WEDGE WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME ERODING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE RISING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARTIALLY
SPLIT/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST STATES GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT
REGION AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ANY
UPSLOPE -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY
MONDAY. OVERALL MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE
WEST/MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED EAST
TOWARD THE COAST SETTING UP IN YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE WEDGE
POSITION...SUPPORTED EVEN MORE SO ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
GULF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC WARM
FRONTAL LIFT BEGINS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON TOP OF THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG LLJ MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD ERODE THE WEDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
QUICK AS THE MODELS WOULD SHOW. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. THIS COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO OR MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT UPPER TROUGHING LAGS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN
ADDITION...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...FURTHER DELAYING THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA.

IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FIRST...SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. SECOND...THE
NEXT THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. THIRD...SNOW MELT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OR BELOW FREEZING AND TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SW
VA/SE WV AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE WEDGE
ERODES ACROSS THAT REGION FIRST.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF WEDGING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 50KT TO 60KT RANGE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS MORE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MAKING FOR PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW MUCH SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE COMING DAYS IN ADDITION TO ITS WATER EQUIVALENCY.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS RECEIVED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A THIRD FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS HOW FROZEN THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE REGION...AS FROZEN
GROUND RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST/ALL OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE
DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF.

AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING AND
REDUCED RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
SLOWING/STALLING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SUCH...
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ONSET OF LOW CLOUD THIS EVENING. THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...THE MODELS TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CIGS. WILL
ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE INTRODUING
ANYTHING BLOW VFR.

AREA OF MOISTURE TO WATCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THE
PRECIPITATION OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHAINS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD
AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT
THE ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY.

STILL NO MORE THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS
SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 010011
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
711 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 408 PM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. POSTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR A WINTRY
MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. STARTED THE EARLIEST IN
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT DEVELOPS FIRST AND SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...SREF AND NAM...THEN GFS SOLUTION. HARD TO
TELL ONSET WITH MOISTURE RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS REGION. USED A TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR PYTPES DURING THE
PERIOD. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SPREADING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S...STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING LATE WITHIN
THE SURFACE- 85H WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RUN OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
AROUND AN INCH ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA. ICING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE/COATING TO UP
TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE POSSIBLE.
THE WARM AIR WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND A SNOW
PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR...THE COLD WEDGE WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME ERODING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE RISING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARTIALLY
SPLIT/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST STATES GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT
REGION AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ANY
UPSLOPE -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY
MONDAY. OVERALL MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE
WEST/MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED EAST
TOWARD THE COAST SETTING UP IN YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE WEDGE
POSITION...SUPPORTED EVEN MORE SO ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
GULF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC WARM
FRONTAL LIFT BEGINS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON TOP OF THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG LLJ MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD ERODE THE WEDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
QUICK AS THE MODELS WOULD SHOW. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. THIS COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO OR MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT UPPER TROUGHING LAGS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN
ADDITION...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...FURTHER DELAYING THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA.

IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FIRST...SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. SECOND...THE
NEXT THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. THIRD...SNOW MELT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OR BELOW FREEZING AND TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SW
VA/SE WV AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE WEDGE
ERODES ACROSS THAT REGION FIRST.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF WEDGING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 50KT TO 60KT RANGE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS MORE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MAKING FOR PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW MUCH SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE COMING DAYS IN ADDITION TO ITS WATER EQUIVALENCY.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS RECEIVED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A THIRD FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS HOW FROZEN THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE REGION...AS FROZEN
GROUND RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST/ALL OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE
DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF.

AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING AND
REDUCED RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
SLOWING/STALLING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SUCH...
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ONSET OF LOW CLOUD THIS EVENING. THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...THE MODELS TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CIGS. WILL
ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE INTRODUING
ANYTHING BLOW VFR.

AREA OF MOISTURE TO WATCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THE
PRECIPITATION OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHAINS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD
AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT
THE ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY.

STILL NO MORE THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS
SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010011
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
711 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 408 PM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. POSTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR A WINTRY
MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. STARTED THE EARLIEST IN
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT DEVELOPS FIRST AND SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...SREF AND NAM...THEN GFS SOLUTION. HARD TO
TELL ONSET WITH MOISTURE RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS REGION. USED A TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR PYTPES DURING THE
PERIOD. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SPREADING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S...STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING LATE WITHIN
THE SURFACE- 85H WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RUN OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
AROUND AN INCH ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA. ICING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE/COATING TO UP
TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE POSSIBLE.
THE WARM AIR WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND A SNOW
PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR...THE COLD WEDGE WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME ERODING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE RISING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARTIALLY
SPLIT/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST STATES GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT
REGION AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ANY
UPSLOPE -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY
MONDAY. OVERALL MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE
WEST/MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED EAST
TOWARD THE COAST SETTING UP IN YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE WEDGE
POSITION...SUPPORTED EVEN MORE SO ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
GULF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC WARM
FRONTAL LIFT BEGINS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON TOP OF THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG LLJ MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD ERODE THE WEDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
QUICK AS THE MODELS WOULD SHOW. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. THIS COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO OR MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT UPPER TROUGHING LAGS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN
ADDITION...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...FURTHER DELAYING THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA.

IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FIRST...SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. SECOND...THE
NEXT THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. THIRD...SNOW MELT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OR BELOW FREEZING AND TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SW
VA/SE WV AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE WEDGE
ERODES ACROSS THAT REGION FIRST.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF WEDGING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 50KT TO 60KT RANGE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS MORE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MAKING FOR PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW MUCH SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE COMING DAYS IN ADDITION TO ITS WATER EQUIVALENCY.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS RECEIVED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A THIRD FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS HOW FROZEN THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE REGION...AS FROZEN
GROUND RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST/ALL OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE
DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF.

AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING AND
REDUCED RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
SLOWING/STALLING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SUCH...
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ONSET OF LOW CLOUD THIS EVENING. THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...THE MODELS TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CIGS. WILL
ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE INTRODUING
ANYTHING BLOW VFR.

AREA OF MOISTURE TO WATCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THE
PRECIPITATION OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHAINS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD
AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT
THE ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY.

STILL NO MORE THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS
SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010011
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
711 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 408 PM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. POSTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR A WINTRY
MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. STARTED THE EARLIEST IN
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT DEVELOPS FIRST AND SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...SREF AND NAM...THEN GFS SOLUTION. HARD TO
TELL ONSET WITH MOISTURE RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS REGION. USED A TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR PYTPES DURING THE
PERIOD. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SPREADING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S...STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING LATE WITHIN
THE SURFACE- 85H WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RUN OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
AROUND AN INCH ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA. ICING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE/COATING TO UP
TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE POSSIBLE.
THE WARM AIR WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND A SNOW
PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR...THE COLD WEDGE WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME ERODING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE RISING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARTIALLY
SPLIT/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST STATES GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT
REGION AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ANY
UPSLOPE -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY
MONDAY. OVERALL MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE
WEST/MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED EAST
TOWARD THE COAST SETTING UP IN YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE WEDGE
POSITION...SUPPORTED EVEN MORE SO ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
GULF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC WARM
FRONTAL LIFT BEGINS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON TOP OF THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG LLJ MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD ERODE THE WEDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
QUICK AS THE MODELS WOULD SHOW. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. THIS COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO OR MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT UPPER TROUGHING LAGS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN
ADDITION...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...FURTHER DELAYING THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA.

IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FIRST...SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. SECOND...THE
NEXT THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. THIRD...SNOW MELT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OR BELOW FREEZING AND TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SW
VA/SE WV AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE WEDGE
ERODES ACROSS THAT REGION FIRST.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF WEDGING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 50KT TO 60KT RANGE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS MORE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MAKING FOR PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW MUCH SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE COMING DAYS IN ADDITION TO ITS WATER EQUIVALENCY.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS RECEIVED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A THIRD FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS HOW FROZEN THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE REGION...AS FROZEN
GROUND RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST/ALL OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE
DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF.

AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING AND
REDUCED RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
SLOWING/STALLING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SUCH...
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...

BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ONSET OF LOW CLOUD THIS EVENING. THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...THE MODELS TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CIGS. WILL
ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE INTRODUING
ANYTHING BLOW VFR.

AREA OF MOISTURE TO WATCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THE
PRECIPITATION OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHAINS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE COLD
AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT
THE ONSET...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MORNING...THEN CREEP ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SIGNAL DECREASE IN VSBY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY.

STILL NO MORE THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...SO USING PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR
PATTERN RECOGNITION TO FORECAST CLOUD LAYERS AND P-TYPE. IN THIS
SITUATION THINK INTRODUCTION OF LOW CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 282109
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 408 PM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. POSTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR A WINTRY
MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. STARTED THE EARLIEST IN
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT DEVELOPS FIRST AND SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...SREF AND NAM...THEN GFS SOLUTION. HARD TO
TELL ONSET WITH MOISTURE RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS REGION. USED A TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR PYTPES DURING THE
PERIOD. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SPREADING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S...STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING LATE WITHIN
THE SURFACE- 85H WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RUN OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
AROUND AN INCH ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA. ICING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE/COATING TO UP
TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE POSSIBLE.
THE WARM AIR WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND A SNOW
PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR...THE COLD WEDGE WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME ERODING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE RISING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARTIALLY
SPLIT/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST STATES GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT
REGION AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ANY
UPSLOPE -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY
MONDAY. OVERALL MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE
WEST/MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED EAST
TOWARD THE COAST SETTING UP IN YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE WEDGE
POSITION...SUPPORTED EVEN MORE SO ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
GULF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC WARM
FRONTAL LIFT BEGINS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON TOP OF THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG LLJ MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD ERODE THE WEDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
QUICK AS THE MODELS WOULD SHOW. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. THIS COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO OR MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT UPPER TROUGHING LAGS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN
ADDITION...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...FURTHER DELAYING THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA.

IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FIRST...SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. SECOND...THE
NEXT THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. THIRD...SNOW MELT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OR BELOW FREEZING AND TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SW
VA/SE WV AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE WEDGE
ERODES ACROSS THAT REGION FIRST.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF WEDGING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 50KT TO 60KT RANGE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS MORE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MAKING FOR PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW MUCH SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE COMING DAYS IN ADDITION TO ITS WATER EQUIVALENCY.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS RECEIVED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A THIRD FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS HOW FROZEN THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE REGION...AS FROZEN
GROUND RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST/ALL OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE
DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF.

AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING AND
REDUCED RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
SLOWING/STALLING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SUCH...
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST SATURDAY...

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WEDGES SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION...EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MANY LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

A WINTRY MIXTURE WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
ON SUNDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING AFTERNOON SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.


A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282109
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 408 PM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. POSTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR A WINTRY
MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. STARTED THE EARLIEST IN
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT DEVELOPS FIRST AND SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...SREF AND NAM...THEN GFS SOLUTION. HARD TO
TELL ONSET WITH MOISTURE RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS REGION. USED A TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR PYTPES DURING THE
PERIOD. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SPREADING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S...STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING LATE WITHIN
THE SURFACE- 85H WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RUN OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
AROUND AN INCH ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA. ICING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE/COATING TO UP
TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE POSSIBLE.
THE WARM AIR WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND A SNOW
PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR...THE COLD WEDGE WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME ERODING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE RISING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARTIALLY
SPLIT/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST STATES GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT
REGION AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ANY
UPSLOPE -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY
MONDAY. OVERALL MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE
WEST/MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED EAST
TOWARD THE COAST SETTING UP IN YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE WEDGE
POSITION...SUPPORTED EVEN MORE SO ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
GULF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC WARM
FRONTAL LIFT BEGINS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON TOP OF THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG LLJ MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD ERODE THE WEDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
QUICK AS THE MODELS WOULD SHOW. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. THIS COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO OR MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT UPPER TROUGHING LAGS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN
ADDITION...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...FURTHER DELAYING THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA.

IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FIRST...SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. SECOND...THE
NEXT THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. THIRD...SNOW MELT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OR BELOW FREEZING AND TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SW
VA/SE WV AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE WEDGE
ERODES ACROSS THAT REGION FIRST.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF WEDGING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 50KT TO 60KT RANGE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS MORE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MAKING FOR PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW MUCH SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE COMING DAYS IN ADDITION TO ITS WATER EQUIVALENCY.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS RECEIVED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A THIRD FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS HOW FROZEN THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE REGION...AS FROZEN
GROUND RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST/ALL OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE
DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF.

AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING AND
REDUCED RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
SLOWING/STALLING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SUCH...
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST SATURDAY...

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WEDGES SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION...EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MANY LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

A WINTRY MIXTURE WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
ON SUNDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING AFTERNOON SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.


A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282109
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 408 PM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. POSTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR A WINTRY
MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. STARTED THE EARLIEST IN
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT DEVELOPS FIRST AND SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...SREF AND NAM...THEN GFS SOLUTION. HARD TO
TELL ONSET WITH MOISTURE RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS REGION. USED A TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR PYTPES DURING THE
PERIOD. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SPREADING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S...STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING LATE WITHIN
THE SURFACE- 85H WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RUN OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
AROUND AN INCH ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA. ICING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE/COATING TO UP
TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE POSSIBLE.
THE WARM AIR WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND A SNOW
PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR...THE COLD WEDGE WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME ERODING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE RISING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARTIALLY
SPLIT/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST STATES GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT
REGION AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ANY
UPSLOPE -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY
MONDAY. OVERALL MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE
WEST/MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED EAST
TOWARD THE COAST SETTING UP IN YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE WEDGE
POSITION...SUPPORTED EVEN MORE SO ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
GULF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC WARM
FRONTAL LIFT BEGINS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON TOP OF THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG LLJ MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD ERODE THE WEDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
QUICK AS THE MODELS WOULD SHOW. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. THIS COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO OR MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT UPPER TROUGHING LAGS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN
ADDITION...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...FURTHER DELAYING THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA.

IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FIRST...SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. SECOND...THE
NEXT THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. THIRD...SNOW MELT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OR BELOW FREEZING AND TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SW
VA/SE WV AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE WEDGE
ERODES ACROSS THAT REGION FIRST.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF WEDGING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 50KT TO 60KT RANGE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS MORE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MAKING FOR PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW MUCH SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE COMING DAYS IN ADDITION TO ITS WATER EQUIVALENCY.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS RECEIVED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A THIRD FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS HOW FROZEN THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE REGION...AS FROZEN
GROUND RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST/ALL OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE
DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF.

AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING AND
REDUCED RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
SLOWING/STALLING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SUCH...
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST SATURDAY...

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WEDGES SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION...EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MANY LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

A WINTRY MIXTURE WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
ON SUNDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING AFTERNOON SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.


A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 282109
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 408 PM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. POSTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR A WINTRY
MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. STARTED THE EARLIEST IN
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT DEVELOPS FIRST AND SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...SREF AND NAM...THEN GFS SOLUTION. HARD TO
TELL ONSET WITH MOISTURE RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS REGION. USED A TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR PYTPES DURING THE
PERIOD. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SPREADING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S...STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING LATE WITHIN
THE SURFACE- 85H WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RUN OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
AROUND AN INCH ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA. ICING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE/COATING TO UP
TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE POSSIBLE.
THE WARM AIR WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND A SNOW
PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR...THE COLD WEDGE WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME ERODING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE RISING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARTIALLY
SPLIT/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST STATES GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT
REGION AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ANY
UPSLOPE -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY
MONDAY. OVERALL MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE
WEST/MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED EAST
TOWARD THE COAST SETTING UP IN YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE WEDGE
POSITION...SUPPORTED EVEN MORE SO ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
GULF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC WARM
FRONTAL LIFT BEGINS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON TOP OF THE RESIDUAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG LLJ MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD ERODE THE WEDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS
QUICK AS THE MODELS WOULD SHOW. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUE NIGHT...THE INITIAL
FRONT IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. THIS COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO OR MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY THE FACT THAT UPPER TROUGHING LAGS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN
ADDITION...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID-
SOUTH...FURTHER DELAYING THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA.

IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FIRST...SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. SECOND...THE
NEXT THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. THIRD...SNOW MELT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OR BELOW FREEZING AND TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SW
VA/SE WV AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE WEDGE
ERODES ACROSS THAT REGION FIRST.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF WEDGING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...

WILL START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 50KT TO 60KT RANGE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS MORE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MAKING FOR PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW MUCH SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE COMING DAYS IN ADDITION TO ITS WATER EQUIVALENCY.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS RECEIVED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A THIRD FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS HOW FROZEN THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE REGION...AS FROZEN
GROUND RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST/ALL OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE
DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF.

AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING AND
REDUCED RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
SLOWING/STALLING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL END OUR SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SUCH...
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN WORKING THE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT PREFER TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST SATURDAY...

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WEDGES SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION...EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MANY LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

A WINTRY MIXTURE WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
ON SUNDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING AFTERNOON SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.


A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281735
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST SATURDAY...
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING...DECIDED
TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA. NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS OF 916 AM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHT FORECAST WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST SATURDAY...

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WEDGES SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION...EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MANY LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

A WINTRY MIXTURE WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
ON SUNDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING AFTERNOON SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.


A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281735
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST SATURDAY...
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING...DECIDED
TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA. NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS OF 916 AM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHT FORECAST WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST SATURDAY...

AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WEDGES SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION...EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MANY LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

A WINTRY MIXTURE WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
ON SUNDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING AFTERNOON SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.


A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281536
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1036 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST SATURDAY...
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING...DECIDED
TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA. NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS OF 916 AM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHT FORECAST WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST SATURDAY...

LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME BANKED UP AGAINST PARTS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING ONLY POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR MID DECK CANOPY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY. THE LAYER OF MVFR TO OCNL IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING WILL
BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HOWEVER APPEARS MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SPOTTY WINTRY
MIX MAKE IT TO KBCB OR KDAN BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY. THUS WONT INCLUDE
MENTION SINCE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281536
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1036 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST SATURDAY...
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING...DECIDED
TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA. NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS OF 916 AM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHT FORECAST WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST SATURDAY...

LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME BANKED UP AGAINST PARTS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING ONLY POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR MID DECK CANOPY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY. THE LAYER OF MVFR TO OCNL IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING WILL
BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HOWEVER APPEARS MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SPOTTY WINTRY
MIX MAKE IT TO KBCB OR KDAN BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY. THUS WONT INCLUDE
MENTION SINCE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281536
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1036 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST SATURDAY...
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING...DECIDED
TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA. NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS OF 916 AM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHT FORECAST WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST SATURDAY...

LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME BANKED UP AGAINST PARTS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING ONLY POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR MID DECK CANOPY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY. THE LAYER OF MVFR TO OCNL IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING WILL
BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HOWEVER APPEARS MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SPOTTY WINTRY
MIX MAKE IT TO KBCB OR KDAN BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY. THUS WONT INCLUDE
MENTION SINCE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281536
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1036 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST SATURDAY...
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING...DECIDED
TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA. NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS OF 916 AM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHT FORECAST WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST SATURDAY...

LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME BANKED UP AGAINST PARTS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING ONLY POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR MID DECK CANOPY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY. THE LAYER OF MVFR TO OCNL IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING WILL
BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HOWEVER APPEARS MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SPOTTY WINTRY
MIX MAKE IT TO KBCB OR KDAN BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY. THUS WONT INCLUDE
MENTION SINCE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281417
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
917 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 916 AM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHT FORECAST WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST SATURDAY...

LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME BANKED UP AGAINST PARTS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING ONLY POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR MID DECK CANOPY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY. THE LAYER OF MVFR TO OCNL IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING WILL
BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HOWEVER APPEARS MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SPOTTY WINTRY
MIX MAKE IT TO KBCB OR KDAN BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY. THUS WONT INCLUDE
MENTION SINCE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281417
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
917 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 916 AM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHT FORECAST WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST SATURDAY...

LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME BANKED UP AGAINST PARTS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING ONLY POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR MID DECK CANOPY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY. THE LAYER OF MVFR TO OCNL IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING WILL
BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HOWEVER APPEARS MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SPOTTY WINTRY
MIX MAKE IT TO KBCB OR KDAN BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY. THUS WONT INCLUDE
MENTION SINCE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281417
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
917 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 916 AM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHT FORECAST WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST SATURDAY...

LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME BANKED UP AGAINST PARTS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING ONLY POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR MID DECK CANOPY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY. THE LAYER OF MVFR TO OCNL IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING WILL
BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HOWEVER APPEARS MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SPOTTY WINTRY
MIX MAKE IT TO KBCB OR KDAN BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY. THUS WONT INCLUDE
MENTION SINCE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 281417
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
917 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 916 AM EST SATURDAY...

A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHT FORECAST WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST SATURDAY...

LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME BANKED UP AGAINST PARTS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING ONLY POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR MID DECK CANOPY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY. THE LAYER OF MVFR TO OCNL IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING WILL
BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HOWEVER APPEARS MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SPOTTY WINTRY
MIX MAKE IT TO KBCB OR KDAN BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY. THUS WONT INCLUDE
MENTION SINCE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281123
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
623 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST SATURDAY...

LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME BANKED UP AGAINST PARTS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING ONLY POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR MID DECK CANOPY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY. THE LAYER OF MVFR TO OCNL IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING WILL
BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HOWEVER APPEARS MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SPOTTY WINTRY
MIX MAKE IT TO KBCB OR KDAN BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY. THUS WONT INCLUDE
MENTION SINCE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281123
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
623 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST SATURDAY...

LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME BANKED UP AGAINST PARTS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING ONLY POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR MID DECK CANOPY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY. THE LAYER OF MVFR TO OCNL IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING WILL
BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS BRIEF SNOW/SLEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HOWEVER APPEARS MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SPOTTY WINTRY
MIX MAKE IT TO KBCB OR KDAN BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY. THUS WONT INCLUDE
MENTION SINCE NEAR THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. MVFR/ IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-VFR DEVELOPING IN MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280921
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
421 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST FRIDAY...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY EASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EASTERLY SATURDAY. TOWARD SUNRISE...THE
WIND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MARINE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
FROM THE COAST...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS CLOUD ELEMENT WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED POCKET OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH COVERAGE WORTHY TO MAKE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

ON SATURDAY...WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LAYER OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO
SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280921
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
421 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN
ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WHILE BEING TOPPED BY SHEARED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST. GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EVER GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SPOTTY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE OUT EAST TODAY SO LEAVING POPS
OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A
LOW CLOUD CANOPY GET LOCKED IN ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY
WITH MORE MID DECK OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY SPELL AN EVEN COLDER
DAY THAN WHAT MOS SHOWS ESPCLY WHERE STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MET LOOKS BETTER PER STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER
UNDER LOW CLOUDS ALREADY.

PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST WHERE MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF RETURN MOISTURE RUNNING UP INTO THE SW
ZONES LATE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST AS TYPICAL WITH RETURN FLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SITUATIONS...WHILE THE EC/CMC REMAIN BASICALLY
DRY...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN PLUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. GIVEN PAST EVENTS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM TIMING BUT WITH QUITE LESS QPF WHICH WILL BE
RUNNING INTO RESIDUAL COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE RETREATING AS STEADY
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SCENARIO UNDER A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
ALOFT WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO PARTS OF
NW NORTH CAROLINA LATE WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SPREADING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OF BCB/ROA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
WONT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE SOUTH/SW LATE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
ICING GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE WET BULBS STILL BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLOUDY MOST SPOTS WITH EARLY LOWS...MOSTLY 20S...STEADYING
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE SURFACE-85H WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER NAM AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM SWLY WINDS RUN OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE. SPEAKING OF THE WEDGE...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK WITH VERY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND A SNOW PACK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP
FORECAST DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...EXPECT TEMPS WEST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL RISE EVER SO SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT EXPECT A SURGE IN TEMPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY BOOTS THE
WEDGE OUT. THIS MEANS WESTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT SO WHILE FREEZING RAIN AND A GLAZE OF ICE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...OUR REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT SO WILL BE LOOKING TO LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
TO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST FRIDAY...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY EASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EASTERLY SATURDAY. TOWARD SUNRISE...THE
WIND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MARINE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
FROM THE COAST...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS CLOUD ELEMENT WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED POCKET OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH COVERAGE WORTHY TO MAKE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

ON SATURDAY...WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LAYER OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO
SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280317
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST FRIDAY...

EVENING RNK/GSO SOUNDINGS WERE DRY...PWATS UNDER A QUARTER INCH.
AT THE MOMENT SKIES ARE CLEAR...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS BEGINNING TO TEND MORE
EASTERLY. DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...VCNTY OF APPOMATTOX AND
FARMILLE HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DECK TO FORM UNDERNEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODELS INSIST ON THE CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP
VCNTY OF FARMVILLE-CHARLOTTESVILLE...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
WITH TIME.

DURING THE LATE NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING FROM THE WEST...COURTESY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHEARING
OUT AS IT EXITS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN SPITE OF THE CLOUD
LAYERS...THE OVERALL DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP AT
ALL...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY COME FROM THE LOW CLOUD ELEMENT. IF
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER CAN FORM UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER WOULD RESIDE AT A
TEMPERATURE AROUND M12 DEG C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT DENDRITIC
GROWTH. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN DON`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FLURRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE THIS IS
ESTABLISHED...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW....TO LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE FORMATION
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO
SHALLOW...AND LIFT TOO LIMITED FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY HELP REFREEZING AND WATER THE FORMED ON SURFACES TODAY FROM
SNOW MELT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...BUT HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WHICH COULD HAVE PROMPTED SOME
MELTING BY WARMING THE GROUND SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY PROBABLY DID
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MELTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.

THE PLAN IS TO MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE
FOR OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL FEATURE THIS
EXACT SAME BLACK ICE HAZARD...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...AND SLOWLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WERE DEPICTING FLOW DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. COASTAL TROFING ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWED RISING TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WEDGE WILL HOLD BACK
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING
AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS HIGHER DEW POINTS TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. COLD
FRONT MAY BE JUST INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
NIGHT AROUND 12Z/7AM. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. PIEDMONT COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO WARM UP INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. IN
CONTRAST...VERY LITTLE RISE IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WEST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. HOT SPRINGS FORECAST SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND INDICATED SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

WILL START MONDAY NIGHT OFF DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. CHILLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST
AIR WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND RAPIDLY PUSHES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING SUB FREEZING AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL MAKE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CAROLINA
STATE LINE FOR A FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...CAUSING ANY FREEZING TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID. LATEST
ROUND OF WEATHER FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR INTERSTATE 64. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT`S
ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARD
THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST
WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST FRIDAY...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY EASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EASTERLY SATURDAY. TOWARD SUNRISE...THE
WIND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MARINE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
FROM THE COAST...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS CLOUD ELEMENT WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED POCKET OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH COVERAGE WORTHY TO MAKE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

ON SATURDAY...WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LAYER OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO
SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280317
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST FRIDAY...

EVENING RNK/GSO SOUNDINGS WERE DRY...PWATS UNDER A QUARTER INCH.
AT THE MOMENT SKIES ARE CLEAR...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS BEGINNING TO TEND MORE
EASTERLY. DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...VCNTY OF APPOMATTOX AND
FARMILLE HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DECK TO FORM UNDERNEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODELS INSIST ON THE CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP
VCNTY OF FARMVILLE-CHARLOTTESVILLE...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
WITH TIME.

DURING THE LATE NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING FROM THE WEST...COURTESY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHEARING
OUT AS IT EXITS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN SPITE OF THE CLOUD
LAYERS...THE OVERALL DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP AT
ALL...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY COME FROM THE LOW CLOUD ELEMENT. IF
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER CAN FORM UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER WOULD RESIDE AT A
TEMPERATURE AROUND M12 DEG C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT DENDRITIC
GROWTH. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN DON`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FLURRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE THIS IS
ESTABLISHED...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW....TO LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE FORMATION
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO
SHALLOW...AND LIFT TOO LIMITED FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY HELP REFREEZING AND WATER THE FORMED ON SURFACES TODAY FROM
SNOW MELT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...BUT HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WHICH COULD HAVE PROMPTED SOME
MELTING BY WARMING THE GROUND SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY PROBABLY DID
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MELTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.

THE PLAN IS TO MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE
FOR OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL FEATURE THIS
EXACT SAME BLACK ICE HAZARD...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...AND SLOWLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WERE DEPICTING FLOW DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. COASTAL TROFING ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWED RISING TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WEDGE WILL HOLD BACK
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING
AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS HIGHER DEW POINTS TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. COLD
FRONT MAY BE JUST INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
NIGHT AROUND 12Z/7AM. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. PIEDMONT COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO WARM UP INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. IN
CONTRAST...VERY LITTLE RISE IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WEST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. HOT SPRINGS FORECAST SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND INDICATED SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

WILL START MONDAY NIGHT OFF DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. CHILLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST
AIR WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND RAPIDLY PUSHES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING SUB FREEZING AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL MAKE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CAROLINA
STATE LINE FOR A FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...CAUSING ANY FREEZING TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID. LATEST
ROUND OF WEATHER FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR INTERSTATE 64. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT`S
ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARD
THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST
WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST FRIDAY...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY EASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EASTERLY SATURDAY. TOWARD SUNRISE...THE
WIND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MARINE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
FROM THE COAST...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS CLOUD ELEMENT WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED POCKET OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH COVERAGE WORTHY TO MAKE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

ON SATURDAY...WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LAYER OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO
SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280315
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1015 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST FRIDAY...

EVENING RNK/GSO SOUNDINGS WERE DRY...PWATS UNDER A QUARTER INCH.
AT THE MOMENT SKIES ARE CLEAR...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS BEGINNING TO TEND MORE
EASTERLY. DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...VCNTY OF APPOMATTOX AND
FARMILLE HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DECK TO FORM UNDERNEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODELS INSIST ON THE CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP
VCNTY OF FARMVILLE-CHARLOTTESVILLE...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
WITH TIME.

DURING THE LATE NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING FROM THE WEST...COURTESY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHEARING
OUT AS IT EXITS THE MID MISSISSIPII VALLEY. IN SPITE OF THE CLOUD
LAYERS...THE OVERALL DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP AT
ALL...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY COME FROM THE LOW CLOUD ELEMENT. IF
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER CAN FORM UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER WOULD RESIDE AT A
TEMPERATURE AROUND M12 DEG C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT DENDRITIC
GROWTH. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN DON`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FLURRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE THIS IS
ESTABLISHED...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW....TO LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE FORMATION
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO
SHALLOW...AND LIFT TOO LIMITED FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY HELP REFREEZING AND WATER THE FORMED ON SURFACES TODAY FROM
SNOW MELT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...BUT HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WHICH COULD HAVE PROMPTED SOME
MELTING BY WARMING THE GROUND SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY PROBABLY DID
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MELTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.

THE PLAN IS TO MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE
FOR OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL FEATURE THIS
EXACT SAME BLACK ICE HAZARD...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...AND SLOWLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WERE DEPICTING FLOW DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. COASTAL TROFING ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWED RISING TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WEDGE WILL HOLD BACK
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING
AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS HIGHER DEW POINTS TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. COLD
FRONT MAY BE JUST INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
NIGHT AROUND 12Z/7AM. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. PIEDMONT COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO WARM UP INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. IN
CONTRAST...VERY LITTLE RISE IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WEST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. HOT SPRINGS FORECAST SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND INDICATED SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

WILL START MONDAY NIGHT OFF DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. CHILLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST
AIR WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND RAPIDLY PUSHES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING SUB FREEZING AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL MAKE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CAROLINA
STATE LINE FOR A FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...CAUSING ANY FREEZING TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID. LATEST
ROUND OF WEATHER FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR INTERSTATE 64. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT`S
ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARD
THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST
WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY EASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EASTERLY SATURDAY. TOWARD SUNRISE...THE
WIND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MARINE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
FROM THE COAST...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS CLOUD ELEMENT WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED POCKET OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH COVERAGE WORTHY TO MAKE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

ON SATURDAY...WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LAYER OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO
SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280315
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1015 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST FRIDAY...

EVENING RNK/GSO SOUNDINGS WERE DRY...PWATS UNDER A QUARTER INCH.
AT THE MOMENT SKIES ARE CLEAR...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS BEGINNING TO TEND MORE
EASTERLY. DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...VCNTY OF APPOMATTOX AND
FARMILLE HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DECK TO FORM UNDERNEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODELS INSIST ON THE CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP
VCNTY OF FARMVILLE-CHARLOTTESVILLE...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
WITH TIME.

DURING THE LATE NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING FROM THE WEST...COURTESY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHEARING
OUT AS IT EXITS THE MID MISSISSIPII VALLEY. IN SPITE OF THE CLOUD
LAYERS...THE OVERALL DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP AT
ALL...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY COME FROM THE LOW CLOUD ELEMENT. IF
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER CAN FORM UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER WOULD RESIDE AT A
TEMPERATURE AROUND M12 DEG C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT DENDRITIC
GROWTH. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN DON`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FLURRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE THIS IS
ESTABLISHED...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW....TO LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE FORMATION
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO
SHALLOW...AND LIFT TOO LIMITED FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY HELP REFREEZING AND WATER THE FORMED ON SURFACES TODAY FROM
SNOW MELT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...BUT HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WHICH COULD HAVE PROMPTED SOME
MELTING BY WARMING THE GROUND SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY PROBABLY DID
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MELTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.

THE PLAN IS TO MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE
FOR OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL FEATURE THIS
EXACT SAME BLACK ICE HAZARD...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...AND SLOWLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WERE DEPICTING FLOW DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. COASTAL TROFING ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWED RISING TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WEDGE WILL HOLD BACK
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING
AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS HIGHER DEW POINTS TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. COLD
FRONT MAY BE JUST INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
NIGHT AROUND 12Z/7AM. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. PIEDMONT COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO WARM UP INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. IN
CONTRAST...VERY LITTLE RISE IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WEST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. HOT SPRINGS FORECAST SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND INDICATED SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

WILL START MONDAY NIGHT OFF DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. CHILLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST
AIR WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND RAPIDLY PUSHES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING SUB FREEZING AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL MAKE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CAROLINA
STATE LINE FOR A FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...CAUSING ANY FREEZING TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID. LATEST
ROUND OF WEATHER FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR INTERSTATE 64. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT`S
ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARD
THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST
WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY EASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EASTERLY SATURDAY. TOWARD SUNRISE...THE
WIND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MARINE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
FROM THE COAST...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS CLOUD ELEMENT WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED POCKET OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH COVERAGE WORTHY TO MAKE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

ON SATURDAY...WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LAYER OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO
SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/PM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280024
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE THIS IS
ESTABLISHED...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW....TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE FORMATION
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW...AND LIFT
TOO LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY HELP REFREEZING AND WATER THE FORMED ON SURFACES TODAY FROM
SNOW MELT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...BUT HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WHICH COULD HAVE PROMPTED SOME
MELTING BY WARMING THE GROUND SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY PROBABLY DID
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MELTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.

THE PLAN IS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR OUR
NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THAT ADDRESSES
AREAS OF BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ISOLATED BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...AND SLOWLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WERE DEPICTING FLOW DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. COASTAL TROFING ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWED RISING TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WEDGE WILL HOLD BACK
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING
AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS HIGHER DEW POINTS TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. COLD
FRONT MAY BE JUST INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
NIGHT AROUND 12Z/7AM. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. PIEDMONT COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO WARM UP INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. IN
CONTRAST...VERY LITTLE RISE IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WEST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. HOT SPRINGS FORECAST SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND INDICATED SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

WILL START MONDAY NIGHT OFF DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. CHILLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST
AIR WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND RAPIDLY PUSHES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING SUB FREEZING AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL MAKE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CAROLINA
STATE LINE FOR A FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...CAUSING ANY FREEZING TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID. LATEST
ROUND OF WEATHER FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR INTERSTATE 64. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT`S
ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARD
THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST
WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AREAWIDE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING BUT FOR A FEW CU LEFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY IN THE 5KT TO
10KT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EAST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...CROSSING
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO HUG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. TOWARD SUNRISE...THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
DRAW MARINE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED POCKET OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP
AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE WORTHY TO MAKE
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

ON SATURDAY...WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LAYER OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO
SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280024
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE THIS IS
ESTABLISHED...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW....TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE FORMATION
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW...AND LIFT
TOO LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY HELP REFREEZING AND WATER THE FORMED ON SURFACES TODAY FROM
SNOW MELT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...BUT HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WHICH COULD HAVE PROMPTED SOME
MELTING BY WARMING THE GROUND SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY PROBABLY DID
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MELTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.

THE PLAN IS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR OUR
NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THAT ADDRESSES
AREAS OF BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ISOLATED BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...AND SLOWLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WERE DEPICTING FLOW DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. COASTAL TROFING ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWED RISING TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WEDGE WILL HOLD BACK
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING
AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS HIGHER DEW POINTS TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. COLD
FRONT MAY BE JUST INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
NIGHT AROUND 12Z/7AM. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. PIEDMONT COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO WARM UP INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. IN
CONTRAST...VERY LITTLE RISE IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WEST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. HOT SPRINGS FORECAST SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND INDICATED SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

WILL START MONDAY NIGHT OFF DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. CHILLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST
AIR WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND RAPIDLY PUSHES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING SUB FREEZING AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL MAKE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CAROLINA
STATE LINE FOR A FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...CAUSING ANY FREEZING TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID. LATEST
ROUND OF WEATHER FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR INTERSTATE 64. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT`S
ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARD
THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST
WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AREAWIDE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING BUT FOR A FEW CU LEFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY IN THE 5KT TO
10KT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EAST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...CROSSING
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO HUG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. TOWARD SUNRISE...THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
DRAW MARINE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED POCKET OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP
AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE WORTHY TO MAKE
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

ON SATURDAY...WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LAYER OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO
SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 280024
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE THIS IS
ESTABLISHED...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW....TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE FORMATION
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW...AND LIFT
TOO LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY HELP REFREEZING AND WATER THE FORMED ON SURFACES TODAY FROM
SNOW MELT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...BUT HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WHICH COULD HAVE PROMPTED SOME
MELTING BY WARMING THE GROUND SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY PROBABLY DID
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MELTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.

THE PLAN IS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR OUR
NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THAT ADDRESSES
AREAS OF BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ISOLATED BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...AND SLOWLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WERE DEPICTING FLOW DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. COASTAL TROFING ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWED RISING TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WEDGE WILL HOLD BACK
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING
AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS HIGHER DEW POINTS TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. COLD
FRONT MAY BE JUST INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
NIGHT AROUND 12Z/7AM. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. PIEDMONT COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO WARM UP INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. IN
CONTRAST...VERY LITTLE RISE IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WEST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. HOT SPRINGS FORECAST SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND INDICATED SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

WILL START MONDAY NIGHT OFF DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. CHILLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST
AIR WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND RAPIDLY PUSHES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING SUB FREEZING AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL MAKE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CAROLINA
STATE LINE FOR A FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...CAUSING ANY FREEZING TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID. LATEST
ROUND OF WEATHER FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR INTERSTATE 64. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT`S
ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARD
THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST
WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AREAWIDE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING BUT FOR A FEW CU LEFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY IN THE 5KT TO
10KT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EAST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...CROSSING
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO HUG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. TOWARD SUNRISE...THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
DRAW MARINE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED POCKET OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP
AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE WORTHY TO MAKE
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

ON SATURDAY...WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LAYER OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO
SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280024
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE THIS IS
ESTABLISHED...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW....TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE FORMATION
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW...AND LIFT
TOO LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY HELP REFREEZING AND WATER THE FORMED ON SURFACES TODAY FROM
SNOW MELT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...BUT HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WHICH COULD HAVE PROMPTED SOME
MELTING BY WARMING THE GROUND SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY PROBABLY DID
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MELTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.

THE PLAN IS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR OUR
NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THAT ADDRESSES
AREAS OF BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ISOLATED BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...AND SLOWLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WERE DEPICTING FLOW DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. COASTAL TROFING ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWED RISING TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WEDGE WILL HOLD BACK
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING
AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS HIGHER DEW POINTS TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. COLD
FRONT MAY BE JUST INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
NIGHT AROUND 12Z/7AM. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. PIEDMONT COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO WARM UP INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. IN
CONTRAST...VERY LITTLE RISE IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WEST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. HOT SPRINGS FORECAST SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND INDICATED SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

WILL START MONDAY NIGHT OFF DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. CHILLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST
AIR WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND RAPIDLY PUSHES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING SUB FREEZING AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL MAKE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CAROLINA
STATE LINE FOR A FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...CAUSING ANY FREEZING TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID. LATEST
ROUND OF WEATHER FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR INTERSTATE 64. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT`S
ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARD
THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST
WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AREAWIDE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING BUT FOR A FEW CU LEFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY IN THE 5KT TO
10KT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EAST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...CROSSING
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO HUG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. TOWARD SUNRISE...THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
DRAW MARINE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED POCKET OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP
AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE WORTHY TO MAKE
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

ON SATURDAY...WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/EASTERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LAYER OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THIN...SO EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP TO
SCATTERED IN AND OUT LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING LONGEST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...STARTING OFF AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
CAUSING ALL FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF





000
FXUS61 KRNK 272054
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
354 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE THIS IS
ESTABLISHED...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW....TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE FORMATION
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW...AND LIFT
TOO LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY HELP REFREEZING AND WATER THE FORMED ON SURFACES TODAY FROM
SNOW MELT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...BUT HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WHICH COULD HAVE PROMPTED SOME
MELTING BY WARMING THE GROUND SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY PROBABLY DID
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MELTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.

THE PLAN IS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR OUR
NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THAT ADDRESSES
AREAS OF BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ISOLATED BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...AND SLOWLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WERE DEPICTING FLOW DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. COASTAL TROFING ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWED RISING TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WEDGE WILL HOLD BACK
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING
AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS HIGHER DEW POINTS TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. COLD
FRONT MAY BE JUST INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
NIGHT AROUND 12Z/7AM. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. PIEDMONT COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO WARM UP INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. IN
CONTRAST...VERY LITTLE RISE IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WEST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. HOT SPRINGS FORECAST SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND INDICATED SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

WILL START MONDAY NIGHT OFF DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHAINS. CHILLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST AIR WILL
ENTER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND RAPIDLY PUSHES TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING SUB FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL MAKE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE
FOR A FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...CAUSING ANY FREEZING TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID. LATEST
ROUND OF WEATHER FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR INTERSTATE 64. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT`S
ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARD
THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST
WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS A NARROW BAND OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
KJFZ...KBLF...15NM W KLWB. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THIS
NARROW STRIP IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE MAINLY FROM THE NW AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO 20KTS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WAS
COMMON.

OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA...AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE SOUTH ALONG
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. FLOW AROUND THIS AXIS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AROUND DAYBREAK YIELD A IFR/MVFR CIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE SUB-VFR CIGS CONTINUING AS
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE
EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE
THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 272054
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
354 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE THIS IS
ESTABLISHED...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW....TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE FORMATION
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW...AND LIFT
TOO LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY HELP REFREEZING AND WATER THE FORMED ON SURFACES TODAY FROM
SNOW MELT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...BUT HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WHICH COULD HAVE PROMPTED SOME
MELTING BY WARMING THE GROUND SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY PROBABLY DID
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MELTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.

THE PLAN IS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR OUR
NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THAT ADDRESSES
AREAS OF BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ISOLATED BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...AND SLOWLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WERE DEPICTING FLOW DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. COASTAL TROFING ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWED RISING TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WEDGE WILL HOLD BACK
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING
AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS HIGHER DEW POINTS TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. COLD
FRONT MAY BE JUST INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
NIGHT AROUND 12Z/7AM. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. PIEDMONT COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO WARM UP INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. IN
CONTRAST...VERY LITTLE RISE IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WEST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. HOT SPRINGS FORECAST SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND INDICATED SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

WILL START MONDAY NIGHT OFF DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHAINS. CHILLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST AIR WILL
ENTER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND RAPIDLY PUSHES TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING SUB FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL MAKE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE
FOR A FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...CAUSING ANY FREEZING TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID. LATEST
ROUND OF WEATHER FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR INTERSTATE 64. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FORECAST MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT`S
ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARD
THE FRONT REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST
WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...SO WILL BE KEEPING OUR
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF
FROZEN GROUND DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...
WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS A NARROW BAND OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
KJFZ...KBLF...15NM W KLWB. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THIS
NARROW STRIP IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE MAINLY FROM THE NW AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO 20KTS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WAS
COMMON.

OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA...AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE SOUTH ALONG
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. FLOW AROUND THIS AXIS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AROUND DAYBREAK YIELD A IFR/MVFR CIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE SUB-VFR CIGS CONTINUING AS
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE
EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE
THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271807
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS AS 100 PM EST FRIDAY...

MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE IN TWO DISTINCT AREAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES STILL
PREVAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST
TO THE BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AREA OF VIRGINIA. ALSO...CLOUDS...AND
WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...EXTENT FROM NEAR RICHLANDS
VA...NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. THE TREND IN
BOTH LOCATIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS FOR LESS CLOUD
COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EST FRIDAY...

WILL BE CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AT
1000 AM GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ALREADY IN THE MID 30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE ADVISORY IN THIS
REGION WAS PRIMARILY DESIGNED TO BRING FOCUS TO A REFREEZE LAST
NIGHT.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
EAST.

AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS A NARROW BAND OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
KJFZ...KBLF...15NM W KLWB. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THIS
NARROW STRIP IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE MAINLY FROM THE NW AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO 20KTS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WAS
COMMON.

OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA...AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE SOUTH ALONG
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. FLOW AROUND THIS AXIS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AROUND DAYBREAK YIELD A IFR/MVFR CIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE SUB-VFR CIGS CONTINUING AS
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE
EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE
THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271807
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS AS 100 PM EST FRIDAY...

MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE IN TWO DISTINCT AREAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES STILL
PREVAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST
TO THE BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AREA OF VIRGINIA. ALSO...CLOUDS...AND
WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...EXTENT FROM NEAR RICHLANDS
VA...NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. THE TREND IN
BOTH LOCATIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS FOR LESS CLOUD
COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EST FRIDAY...

WILL BE CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AT
1000 AM GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ALREADY IN THE MID 30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE ADVISORY IN THIS
REGION WAS PRIMARILY DESIGNED TO BRING FOCUS TO A REFREEZE LAST
NIGHT.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
EAST.

AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS A NARROW BAND OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
KJFZ...KBLF...15NM W KLWB. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THIS
NARROW STRIP IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE MAINLY FROM THE NW AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO 20KTS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WAS
COMMON.

OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA...AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE SOUTH ALONG
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. FLOW AROUND THIS AXIS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AROUND DAYBREAK YIELD A IFR/MVFR CIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE SUB-VFR CIGS CONTINUING AS
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE
EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE
THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271807
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS AS 100 PM EST FRIDAY...

MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE IN TWO DISTINCT AREAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES STILL
PREVAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST
TO THE BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AREA OF VIRGINIA. ALSO...CLOUDS...AND
WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...EXTENT FROM NEAR RICHLANDS
VA...NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. THE TREND IN
BOTH LOCATIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS FOR LESS CLOUD
COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EST FRIDAY...

WILL BE CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AT
1000 AM GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ALREADY IN THE MID 30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE ADVISORY IN THIS
REGION WAS PRIMARILY DESIGNED TO BRING FOCUS TO A REFREEZE LAST
NIGHT.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
EAST.

AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS A NARROW BAND OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
KJFZ...KBLF...15NM W KLWB. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THIS
NARROW STRIP IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE MAINLY FROM THE NW AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO 20KTS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WAS
COMMON.

OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA...AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE SOUTH ALONG
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. FLOW AROUND THIS AXIS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AROUND DAYBREAK YIELD A IFR/MVFR CIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE SUB-VFR CIGS CONTINUING AS
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE
EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE
THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271807
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS AS 100 PM EST FRIDAY...

MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE IN TWO DISTINCT AREAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES STILL
PREVAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST
TO THE BUCKINGHAM COUNTY AREA OF VIRGINIA. ALSO...CLOUDS...AND
WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...EXTENT FROM NEAR RICHLANDS
VA...NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. THE TREND IN
BOTH LOCATIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS FOR LESS CLOUD
COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EST FRIDAY...

WILL BE CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AT
1000 AM GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ALREADY IN THE MID 30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE ADVISORY IN THIS
REGION WAS PRIMARILY DESIGNED TO BRING FOCUS TO A REFREEZE LAST
NIGHT.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
EAST.

AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS A NARROW BAND OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
KJFZ...KBLF...15NM W KLWB. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THIS
NARROW STRIP IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE MAINLY FROM THE NW AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO 20KTS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WAS
COMMON.

OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA...AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE SOUTH ALONG
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. FLOW AROUND THIS AXIS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AROUND DAYBREAK YIELD A IFR/MVFR CIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE SUB-VFR CIGS CONTINUING AS
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE
EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE
THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271458
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EST FRIDAY...

WILL BE CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AT
1000 AM GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ALREADY IN THE MID 30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE ADVISORY IN THIS
REGION WAS PRIMARILY DESIGNED TO BRING FOCUS TO A REFREEZE LAST
NIGHT.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
EAST.

AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...

FREEZING FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN ISSUES ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING
WHERE LOOKING AT LIFR/IFR AT TIMES AT KDAN/KLYH AND EXPECT THIS
TO PERSIST UNTIL MIXING/DRYING ARRIVES BY MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT CROSSING THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KBCB WEST. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ALONG WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS OUT EAST INTO MIDDAY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD FINALLY ERODE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HOW FAST REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AT
10-15 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INFILTRATION OF
HIGH/MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS IN A
STRIP FROM KLYH TO KDAN WHERE WILL INCLUDE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
LATE. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG ALSO AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT BUT GIVEN DRYNESS UNDER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271458
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EST FRIDAY...

WILL BE CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AT
1000 AM GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ALREADY IN THE MID 30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE ADVISORY IN THIS
REGION WAS PRIMARILY DESIGNED TO BRING FOCUS TO A REFREEZE LAST
NIGHT.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
EAST.

AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...

FREEZING FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN ISSUES ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING
WHERE LOOKING AT LIFR/IFR AT TIMES AT KDAN/KLYH AND EXPECT THIS
TO PERSIST UNTIL MIXING/DRYING ARRIVES BY MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT CROSSING THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KBCB WEST. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ALONG WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS OUT EAST INTO MIDDAY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD FINALLY ERODE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HOW FAST REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AT
10-15 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INFILTRATION OF
HIGH/MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS IN A
STRIP FROM KLYH TO KDAN WHERE WILL INCLUDE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
LATE. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG ALSO AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT BUT GIVEN DRYNESS UNDER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271458
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EST FRIDAY...

WILL BE CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AT
1000 AM GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ALREADY IN THE MID 30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE ADVISORY IN THIS
REGION WAS PRIMARILY DESIGNED TO BRING FOCUS TO A REFREEZE LAST
NIGHT.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
EAST.

AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...

FREEZING FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN ISSUES ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING
WHERE LOOKING AT LIFR/IFR AT TIMES AT KDAN/KLYH AND EXPECT THIS
TO PERSIST UNTIL MIXING/DRYING ARRIVES BY MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT CROSSING THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KBCB WEST. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ALONG WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS OUT EAST INTO MIDDAY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD FINALLY ERODE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HOW FAST REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AT
10-15 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INFILTRATION OF
HIGH/MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS IN A
STRIP FROM KLYH TO KDAN WHERE WILL INCLUDE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
LATE. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG ALSO AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT BUT GIVEN DRYNESS UNDER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271458
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EST FRIDAY...

WILL BE CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AT
1000 AM GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ALREADY IN THE MID 30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE ADVISORY IN THIS
REGION WAS PRIMARILY DESIGNED TO BRING FOCUS TO A REFREEZE LAST
NIGHT.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
EAST.

AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...

FREEZING FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN ISSUES ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING
WHERE LOOKING AT LIFR/IFR AT TIMES AT KDAN/KLYH AND EXPECT THIS
TO PERSIST UNTIL MIXING/DRYING ARRIVES BY MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT CROSSING THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KBCB WEST. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ALONG WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS OUT EAST INTO MIDDAY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD FINALLY ERODE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HOW FAST REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AT
10-15 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INFILTRATION OF
HIGH/MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS IN A
STRIP FROM KLYH TO KDAN WHERE WILL INCLUDE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
LATE. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG ALSO AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT BUT GIVEN DRYNESS UNDER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 271114
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
614 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...

FREEZING FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN ISSUES ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING
WHERE LOOKING AT LIFR/IFR AT TIMES AT KDAN/KLYH AND EXPECT THIS
TO PERSIST UNTIL MIXING/DRYING ARRIVES BY MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT CROSSING THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KBCB WEST. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ALONG WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS OUT EAST INTO MIDDAY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD FINALLY ERODE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HOW FAST REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AT
10-15 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INFILTRATION OF
HIGH/MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS IN A
STRIP FROM KLYH TO KDAN WHERE WILL INCLUDE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
LATE. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG ALSO AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT BUT GIVEN DRYNESS UNDER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271114
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
614 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...

FREEZING FOG/STRATUS THE MAIN ISSUES ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING
WHERE LOOKING AT LIFR/IFR AT TIMES AT KDAN/KLYH AND EXPECT THIS
TO PERSIST UNTIL MIXING/DRYING ARRIVES BY MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT CROSSING THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KBCB WEST. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ALONG WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS OUT EAST INTO MIDDAY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD FINALLY ERODE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HOW FAST REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AT
10-15 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INFILTRATION OF
HIGH/MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS IN A
STRIP FROM KLYH TO KDAN WHERE WILL INCLUDE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
LATE. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG ALSO AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT BUT GIVEN DRYNESS UNDER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270841
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST THURSDAY...

JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT BLF EARLY WITH FOG IN DAN THE MAIN
ISSUES. WILL ALSO SEE MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START MIXING TO THE SURFACE
SO THAT A PREVAILING 10 KT WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 5 TO 10 KT COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270841
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
SWING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE AREA RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 85H COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS MORNING RESULTING IN RENEWAL OF DEEP
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WESTERN HALF INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OTRW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CUT BY DOWNSLOPE OUT EAST. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME LOW WESTERN SLOPE POPS THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING ESPCLY EAST. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG ALSO LOOKS TO
REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER DRYING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS OCCUR EARLY OVER THE FAR WEST...AND THEN FALL WHILE
STEADYING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME RISES TO
PERHAPS LOW 40S SE WHERE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
NW FLOW.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER SNOW COVER BUT APPEARS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP ALL EXCEPT
THE VALLEYS FROM BOTTOMING. THUS STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE VERY COLD EC
MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS WHICH INCORPORATES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A WEAK NE TRAJECTORY OUT EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FINE SNOW GRAINS PRECIPITATING IN THE WEDGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AS IT WOULD
ONLY BE A VERY LOW POP TRACE EVENT.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN START TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE WEDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE TIMING FROM THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER. WILL
PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE NAM AND LEAN TOWARDS LATER TIMING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH MODERATION SO THAT BY THE TIME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT AS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SPLIT THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PROBLEMATIC PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANY
MOUNTAINS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST THURSDAY...

JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT BLF EARLY WITH FOG IN DAN THE MAIN
ISSUES. WILL ALSO SEE MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START MIXING TO THE SURFACE
SO THAT A PREVAILING 10 KT WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 5 TO 10 KT COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270454
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1154 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...AND BE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRINGING MORE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA...AND TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

FOG/FREEZING FOG IN PATCHY AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT AND SOME OF THE
NC FOOTHILLS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SPS AND WINTER WX
ADVISORY COVERS ANY BLACK ICE.

NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW SHOWERS PER LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH IN
THE WEST BUT WILL SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH DAWN.

NO MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO TEMPS...BUT DID LOWER SKY COVER SOME
IN THE EAST AS DOWNSLOPE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE THE LOW DECK.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR BLACK ICE FOR OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES VIA OUR WORKING POLICY WITH THAT STATE. FOR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE BLACK ICE WAS ISSUED.

EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...THAT WILL BE FULLY REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AFTER THE BREAKING OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. COLDER AND LOWER DEW POINT AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE PIGGY BACK WITH THE FRONT...AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE NORMAL THE IMPACT OF DOWNSLOPING
WIND WOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS. THIS SATURATION WITHIN THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED TO A
NARROW BAND BETWEEN 850 MB AND THE SURFACE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE
WITHIN THIS BAND WILL RANGE FROM ROUGHLY -8 TO -11 C. WITH VERY
LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...THE PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FREEZING
RAIN...RATHER THAN SNOW. ALTHOUGH WITH -10 TO -11 C AS A COLD
LIMIT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE
MIX.

ON FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT THAT WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO ERODE AS
FAST...AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT TREND TOWARDS
DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND 30 TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

ZONAL PATTERN AT 500 MB THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TRULY DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
MAY COUNTERACT THAT COOLING. LEANED TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MAV NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
HAVE AND EASTERLY COMPONENT BUT AT 850MB THE HIGH IS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BRINGS MOISTURE RIGHT
OUT OF THE GULF AND ADVECTS WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY BECOMING A WINTRY MIX
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING. ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...EXPECT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TO
DEVELOP.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST THURSDAY...

JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT BLF EARLY WITH FOG IN DAN THE MAIN
ISSUES. WILL ALSO SEE MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START MIXING TO THE SURFACE
SO THAT A PREVAILING 10 KT WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 5 TO 10 KT COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270454
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1154 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...AND BE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRINGING MORE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA...AND TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

FOG/FREEZING FOG IN PATCHY AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT AND SOME OF THE
NC FOOTHILLS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SPS AND WINTER WX
ADVISORY COVERS ANY BLACK ICE.

NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW SHOWERS PER LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH IN
THE WEST BUT WILL SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH DAWN.

NO MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO TEMPS...BUT DID LOWER SKY COVER SOME
IN THE EAST AS DOWNSLOPE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE THE LOW DECK.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR BLACK ICE FOR OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES VIA OUR WORKING POLICY WITH THAT STATE. FOR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE BLACK ICE WAS ISSUED.

EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...THAT WILL BE FULLY REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AFTER THE BREAKING OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. COLDER AND LOWER DEW POINT AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE PIGGY BACK WITH THE FRONT...AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE NORMAL THE IMPACT OF DOWNSLOPING
WIND WOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS. THIS SATURATION WITHIN THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED TO A
NARROW BAND BETWEEN 850 MB AND THE SURFACE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE
WITHIN THIS BAND WILL RANGE FROM ROUGHLY -8 TO -11 C. WITH VERY
LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...THE PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FREEZING
RAIN...RATHER THAN SNOW. ALTHOUGH WITH -10 TO -11 C AS A COLD
LIMIT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE
MIX.

ON FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT THAT WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO ERODE AS
FAST...AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT TREND TOWARDS
DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND 30 TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

ZONAL PATTERN AT 500 MB THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TRULY DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
MAY COUNTERACT THAT COOLING. LEANED TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MAV NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
HAVE AND EASTERLY COMPONENT BUT AT 850MB THE HIGH IS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BRINGS MOISTURE RIGHT
OUT OF THE GULF AND ADVECTS WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY BECOMING A WINTRY MIX
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING. ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...EXPECT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TO
DEVELOP.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST THURSDAY...

JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT BLF EARLY WITH FOG IN DAN THE MAIN
ISSUES. WILL ALSO SEE MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START MIXING TO THE SURFACE
SO THAT A PREVAILING 10 KT WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 5 TO 10 KT COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/WP





000
FXUS61 KRNK 270454
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1154 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...AND BE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRINGING MORE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA...AND TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

FOG/FREEZING FOG IN PATCHY AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT AND SOME OF THE
NC FOOTHILLS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SPS AND WINTER WX
ADVISORY COVERS ANY BLACK ICE.

NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW SHOWERS PER LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH IN
THE WEST BUT WILL SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH DAWN.

NO MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO TEMPS...BUT DID LOWER SKY COVER SOME
IN THE EAST AS DOWNSLOPE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE THE LOW DECK.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR BLACK ICE FOR OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES VIA OUR WORKING POLICY WITH THAT STATE. FOR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE BLACK ICE WAS ISSUED.

EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...THAT WILL BE FULLY REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AFTER THE BREAKING OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. COLDER AND LOWER DEW POINT AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE PIGGY BACK WITH THE FRONT...AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE NORMAL THE IMPACT OF DOWNSLOPING
WIND WOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS. THIS SATURATION WITHIN THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED TO A
NARROW BAND BETWEEN 850 MB AND THE SURFACE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE
WITHIN THIS BAND WILL RANGE FROM ROUGHLY -8 TO -11 C. WITH VERY
LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...THE PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FREEZING
RAIN...RATHER THAN SNOW. ALTHOUGH WITH -10 TO -11 C AS A COLD
LIMIT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE
MIX.

ON FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT THAT WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO ERODE AS
FAST...AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT TREND TOWARDS
DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND 30 TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

ZONAL PATTERN AT 500 MB THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TRULY DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
MAY COUNTERACT THAT COOLING. LEANED TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MAV NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
HAVE AND EASTERLY COMPONENT BUT AT 850MB THE HIGH IS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BRINGS MOISTURE RIGHT
OUT OF THE GULF AND ADVECTS WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY BECOMING A WINTRY MIX
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING. ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...EXPECT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TO
DEVELOP.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST THURSDAY...

JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT BLF EARLY WITH FOG IN DAN THE MAIN
ISSUES. WILL ALSO SEE MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START MIXING TO THE SURFACE
SO THAT A PREVAILING 10 KT WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 5 TO 10 KT COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270454
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1154 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...AND BE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRINGING MORE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA...AND TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

FOG/FREEZING FOG IN PATCHY AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT AND SOME OF THE
NC FOOTHILLS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SPS AND WINTER WX
ADVISORY COVERS ANY BLACK ICE.

NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW SHOWERS PER LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH IN
THE WEST BUT WILL SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH DAWN.

NO MAJOR CHANGES OVERALL TO TEMPS...BUT DID LOWER SKY COVER SOME
IN THE EAST AS DOWNSLOPE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE THE LOW DECK.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR BLACK ICE FOR OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES VIA OUR WORKING POLICY WITH THAT STATE. FOR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE BLACK ICE WAS ISSUED.

EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...THAT WILL BE FULLY REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AFTER THE BREAKING OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. COLDER AND LOWER DEW POINT AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE PIGGY BACK WITH THE FRONT...AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE NORMAL THE IMPACT OF DOWNSLOPING
WIND WOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS. THIS SATURATION WITHIN THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED TO A
NARROW BAND BETWEEN 850 MB AND THE SURFACE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE
WITHIN THIS BAND WILL RANGE FROM ROUGHLY -8 TO -11 C. WITH VERY
LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...THE PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FREEZING
RAIN...RATHER THAN SNOW. ALTHOUGH WITH -10 TO -11 C AS A COLD
LIMIT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE
MIX.

ON FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT THAT WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO ERODE AS
FAST...AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT TREND TOWARDS
DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND 30 TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST THURSDAY...

ZONAL PATTERN AT 500 MB THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TRULY DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
MAY COUNTERACT THAT COOLING. LEANED TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MAV NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
HAVE AND EASTERLY COMPONENT BUT AT 850MB THE HIGH IS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BRINGS MOISTURE RIGHT
OUT OF THE GULF AND ADVECTS WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY BECOMING A WINTRY MIX
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING. ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...EXPECT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TO
DEVELOP.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND PUSH RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST THURSDAY...

JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT BLF EARLY WITH FOG IN DAN THE MAIN
ISSUES. WILL ALSO SEE MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START MIXING TO THE SURFACE
SO THAT A PREVAILING 10 KT WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 5 TO 10 KT COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/NF/WP





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities