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000
FXUS66 KSEW 290428
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT FOR
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD
WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO
THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS
AND LESS LIKELY BASED ON RADAR ALONG WITH THE FACT THE LATEST NAM12
AND HRRR MODELS WHICH SHOW DRY WEATHER ALL NIGHT. THERE WILL
PROBABLY ALSO BE SOME FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS FROM BECOMING TOO PREVALENT.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR DRY WEATHER. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING
THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...MOSTLY
IN THE 50S...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. BUT THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH EACH NEW MODEL SOLUTION. A WETTER PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN REACH THE AREA ON MON FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
RAIN. SNOW LEVEL ARE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AROUND
4000-5000 FT. THE GFS TRIES TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
TUE AND WED. THE ECMWF HOWEVER STEERS SOME MOISTURE OUR WAY FOR
WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER E WA WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY DRY
AND STABLE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT 04Z
WERE 5F OR LOWER JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SO SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED 08Z-18Z.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST W OF THE N OREGON
COAST AT 04Z WILL MOVE NE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH 20Z. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD BKN050-100 CLOUD LAYERS ACROSS W WA
OVERNIGHT...MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS TO FORM. A
CLEARING TREND FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOISTURE AND WHATEVER
FOG/STRATUS FORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SCT-BKN050-100 SHOULD BE PRESENT 09Z-18Z WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FOG AND LOW STRATUS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER WITH
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO REACH 2-3F...SOME
PATCHY STRATUS IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE N-NE 3-7 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WEST ENTRANCE WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL GET
INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE AT TIMES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY SOME OTHER DAYS AS WELL.

MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS SHOW
WINDS MOSTLY STAYING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THIS
FRONT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CHB/KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 290428
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT FOR
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD
WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO
THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS
AND LESS LIKELY BASED ON RADAR ALONG WITH THE FACT THE LATEST NAM12
AND HRRR MODELS WHICH SHOW DRY WEATHER ALL NIGHT. THERE WILL
PROBABLY ALSO BE SOME FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS FROM BECOMING TOO PREVALENT.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR DRY WEATHER. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING
THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...MOSTLY
IN THE 50S...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. BUT THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH EACH NEW MODEL SOLUTION. A WETTER PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN REACH THE AREA ON MON FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
RAIN. SNOW LEVEL ARE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AROUND
4000-5000 FT. THE GFS TRIES TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
TUE AND WED. THE ECMWF HOWEVER STEERS SOME MOISTURE OUR WAY FOR
WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER E WA WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY DRY
AND STABLE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT 04Z
WERE 5F OR LOWER JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SO SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED 08Z-18Z.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST W OF THE N OREGON
COAST AT 04Z WILL MOVE NE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH 20Z. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD BKN050-100 CLOUD LAYERS ACROSS W WA
OVERNIGHT...MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS TO FORM. A
CLEARING TREND FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOISTURE AND WHATEVER
FOG/STRATUS FORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SCT-BKN050-100 SHOULD BE PRESENT 09Z-18Z WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FOG AND LOW STRATUS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER WITH
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO REACH 2-3F...SOME
PATCHY STRATUS IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE N-NE 3-7 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WEST ENTRANCE WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL GET
INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE AT TIMES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY SOME OTHER DAYS AS WELL.

MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS SHOW
WINDS MOSTLY STAYING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THIS
FRONT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CHB/KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 282247
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT
FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING NORTH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO
WESTERN WA...MAINLY COAST AND SOUTH PART TONIGHT. SO FAR ACTIVITY IS
PRETTY WEAK ON KLGX BUT THE IR DOES SHOW A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT. POPS
ARE LOW AT 20 PERCENT WITH JUST A TRACE OF PRECIP TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS IF ANYTHING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI FOR
MORE DRY AND STABLE WEATHER. EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN WA ON SATURDAY AND WE
COULD SEE LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO B.C.
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. 33

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS IT MOVES INLAND. BUT THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING SLOWER AND WEAKER
WITH EACH NEW MODEL SOLUTION. A WETTER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
THEN REACH THE AREA ON MON FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN. SNOW LEVEL ARE
A LITTLE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AROUND 4000-5000 FT. THE GFS TRIES
TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUE AND WED. THE ECMWF
HOWEVER STEERS SOME MOISTURE OUR WAY FOR WETTER WEATHER PATTERN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. MOST AREAS HAVE CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THAT ARE KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY THERE. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE.

MOST AREAS HAVE NO CEILINGS. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THE CEILINGS ARE
MVFR AROUND 2K FT. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT AND THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD FOLLOW THAT TRACK.
SOME DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MOIST AIR MASS BY
WEAK UPLIFT. AREAS EAST OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN FREE OF
CEILINGS THOUGH PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG IS LIKELY IN CLEAR AREAS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

KSEA...SHOULD BE VFR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF IFR
STRATUS AND FOG FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MAY OPT TO LEAVE IFR CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHERLY 3-6 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH NORTHERLY AND
OFFSHORE WINDS OF MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WEST
ENTRANCE WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL GET INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE AT
TIMES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SOME OTHER DAYS AS
WELL.

MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS SHOW
WINDS MOSTLY STAYING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THIS
FRONT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 282247
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT
FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING NORTH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO
WESTERN WA...MAINLY COAST AND SOUTH PART TONIGHT. SO FAR ACTIVITY IS
PRETTY WEAK ON KLGX BUT THE IR DOES SHOW A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT. POPS
ARE LOW AT 20 PERCENT WITH JUST A TRACE OF PRECIP TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS IF ANYTHING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI FOR
MORE DRY AND STABLE WEATHER. EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN WA ON SATURDAY AND WE
COULD SEE LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO B.C.
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. 33

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS IT MOVES INLAND. BUT THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING SLOWER AND WEAKER
WITH EACH NEW MODEL SOLUTION. A WETTER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
THEN REACH THE AREA ON MON FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN. SNOW LEVEL ARE
A LITTLE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AROUND 4000-5000 FT. THE GFS TRIES
TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUE AND WED. THE ECMWF
HOWEVER STEERS SOME MOISTURE OUR WAY FOR WETTER WEATHER PATTERN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. MOST AREAS HAVE CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THAT ARE KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY THERE. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE.

MOST AREAS HAVE NO CEILINGS. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THE CEILINGS ARE
MVFR AROUND 2K FT. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT AND THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD FOLLOW THAT TRACK.
SOME DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MOIST AIR MASS BY
WEAK UPLIFT. AREAS EAST OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN FREE OF
CEILINGS THOUGH PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG IS LIKELY IN CLEAR AREAS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

KSEA...SHOULD BE VFR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF IFR
STRATUS AND FOG FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MAY OPT TO LEAVE IFR CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHERLY 3-6 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH NORTHERLY AND
OFFSHORE WINDS OF MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WEST
ENTRANCE WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL GET INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE AT
TIMES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SOME OTHER DAYS AS
WELL.

MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS SHOW
WINDS MOSTLY STAYING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THIS
FRONT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 281704
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
903 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST ACROSS WESTERN WA
WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES ARE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL UNDERCUT
A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE IR SHOWS THIS FEATURE OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING...SLOWLY
LIFTING N/NE. BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HRRR AND NAM12 SHOW A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
INLAND TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...TRACE OR
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IF ANYTHING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI FOR
MORE DRY AND STABLE WEATHER. EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY.
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING E OF THE CASCADES WILL PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS MAY HELP LIMIT FOG AND INHIBIT STRONG
INVERSIONS FROM DEVELOPING. SLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD
BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING. MOS
GUIDANCE TRENDS THE TEMPERATURES LOWER TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND STAY THE COURSE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
MOIST PACIFIC FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS RAINY
AND THE LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKER
TRAILING SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT NONE OF THESE
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. THE LOWLANDS ARE COVERED WITH STRATUS THIS MORNING THOUGH
THE MOUNTAINS AND COAST ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. A WEAK IMPULSE MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN AREAS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY 2-4K FT WITH A CLEARING TREND. HOWEVER THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE MATTERS AS IT SPREADS A
DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH CEILINGS BKN-OVC025-050.

KSEA...THE TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF 2-4K FT CEILINGS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING PERIODS. THE SHORT WAVE IN OREGON IS NOT
LIKELY TO MAKE IT TO KSEA TODAY SO MORE CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON
SEEMS LIKELY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH NORTHERLY AND
OFFSHORE WINDS OF LESS THAN 20 KT.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE WA COAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 281704
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
903 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST ACROSS WESTERN WA
WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES ARE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL UNDERCUT
A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE IR SHOWS THIS FEATURE OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING...SLOWLY
LIFTING N/NE. BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HRRR AND NAM12 SHOW A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
INLAND TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...TRACE OR
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IF ANYTHING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI FOR
MORE DRY AND STABLE WEATHER. EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY.
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING E OF THE CASCADES WILL PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS MAY HELP LIMIT FOG AND INHIBIT STRONG
INVERSIONS FROM DEVELOPING. SLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD
BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING. MOS
GUIDANCE TRENDS THE TEMPERATURES LOWER TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND STAY THE COURSE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
MOIST PACIFIC FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS RAINY
AND THE LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKER
TRAILING SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT NONE OF THESE
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. THE LOWLANDS ARE COVERED WITH STRATUS THIS MORNING THOUGH
THE MOUNTAINS AND COAST ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. A WEAK IMPULSE MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN AREAS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY 2-4K FT WITH A CLEARING TREND. HOWEVER THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE MATTERS AS IT SPREADS A
DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH CEILINGS BKN-OVC025-050.

KSEA...THE TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF 2-4K FT CEILINGS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING PERIODS. THE SHORT WAVE IN OREGON IS NOT
LIKELY TO MAKE IT TO KSEA TODAY SO MORE CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON
SEEMS LIKELY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH NORTHERLY AND
OFFSHORE WINDS OF LESS THAN 20 KT.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE WA COAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 281055
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KATX DOPPLER RADAR IS PICKING A WEAK CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER THE ADMIRALTY INLET AREA EXTENDING INTO WRN SNOHOMISH/KING
COUNTIES AT 230 AM. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS FALLING IN THE
EVERETT TO SEATTLE CORRIDOR BUT THIS SHOULD END EARLY THIS MORNING
AS GRADIENTS HAVE FLATTENED. THE NAM-12 TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON SO IT
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW
SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW 50S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WHICH BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THE 00Z NAM-12 HAD
QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO SHOWN SPOTTY LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NEWER 06Z NAM-12 HAS BACKED WAY OFF AND
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE COAST AND OLYMPICS TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL WITH LITTLE UPWARD MOTION. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUAL PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THURSDAY. DECIDED
TO KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT FROM ABOUT EVERETT SWD
INCLUDING THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER OVER WRN WA. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH B.C. WILL HAVE
LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVER THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING E OF THE CASCADES WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.
THIS MAY HELP LIMIT FOG AND INHIBIT STRONG INVERSIONS FROM
DEVELOPING. SLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING. MOS GUIDANCE TRENDS THE
TEMPERATURES LOWER TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND
STAY THE COURSE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
MOIST PACIFIC FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS RAINY
AND THE LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKER
TRAILING SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT NONE OF THESE
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER W
WA THROUGH 18Z THEN SHIFT OVER E WA BY 06Z. THE AIR MASS OVER W WA
REMAINS MOIST AT LOW LEVELS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. A SMALL WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING N ALONG THE OREGON COAST WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER SW WA AND THE CENTRAL COAST
20Z-00Z THEN ACROSS THE REST OF W WA THROUGH 12Z.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERS MOST OF W WA THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE
GENERALLY BELOW OVC025 OVER THE SW INTERIOR AND THROUGH PUGET
SOUND...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CIGS AND SOME ISOLATED CLEARING OVER
THE N INTERIOR. IN GENERAL THE CURRENT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
VFR BKN030-050 18Z-21Z. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
COMPLICATE MATTERS AS IT SPREADS A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SW WITH CIGS BKN-OVC025-050.

KSEA...A MOIST STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 19Z THEN TO BKN040
AFTER 21Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT BRIEF VISIBILITY LESS THAN
1SM AND CIGS AROUND OVC002 MAY DEVELOP 12Z-17Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STRATUS LAYER IS STARTING TO STABILIZE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN 7 KT OR LESS AND FAVOR A N-NE DIRECTION.
KAM

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER E WA WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS W WA WILL REMAIN WEAK AND WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE ECMWF REMAINS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE WA COAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL MIDDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
GENERATE SCA WINDS ON THE COAST AND IN SOME SPOTS OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 281055
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KATX DOPPLER RADAR IS PICKING A WEAK CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER THE ADMIRALTY INLET AREA EXTENDING INTO WRN SNOHOMISH/KING
COUNTIES AT 230 AM. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS FALLING IN THE
EVERETT TO SEATTLE CORRIDOR BUT THIS SHOULD END EARLY THIS MORNING
AS GRADIENTS HAVE FLATTENED. THE NAM-12 TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON SO IT
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW
SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW 50S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WHICH BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THE 00Z NAM-12 HAD
QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO SHOWN SPOTTY LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NEWER 06Z NAM-12 HAS BACKED WAY OFF AND
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE COAST AND OLYMPICS TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL WITH LITTLE UPWARD MOTION. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUAL PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THURSDAY. DECIDED
TO KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT FROM ABOUT EVERETT SWD
INCLUDING THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER OVER WRN WA. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH B.C. WILL HAVE
LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVER THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING E OF THE CASCADES WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.
THIS MAY HELP LIMIT FOG AND INHIBIT STRONG INVERSIONS FROM
DEVELOPING. SLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING. MOS GUIDANCE TRENDS THE
TEMPERATURES LOWER TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND
STAY THE COURSE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
MOIST PACIFIC FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS RAINY
AND THE LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKER
TRAILING SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT NONE OF THESE
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER W
WA THROUGH 18Z THEN SHIFT OVER E WA BY 06Z. THE AIR MASS OVER W WA
REMAINS MOIST AT LOW LEVELS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. A SMALL WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING N ALONG THE OREGON COAST WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER SW WA AND THE CENTRAL COAST
20Z-00Z THEN ACROSS THE REST OF W WA THROUGH 12Z.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERS MOST OF W WA THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE
GENERALLY BELOW OVC025 OVER THE SW INTERIOR AND THROUGH PUGET
SOUND...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CIGS AND SOME ISOLATED CLEARING OVER
THE N INTERIOR. IN GENERAL THE CURRENT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
VFR BKN030-050 18Z-21Z. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
COMPLICATE MATTERS AS IT SPREADS A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SW WITH CIGS BKN-OVC025-050.

KSEA...A MOIST STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 19Z THEN TO BKN040
AFTER 21Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT BRIEF VISIBILITY LESS THAN
1SM AND CIGS AROUND OVC002 MAY DEVELOP 12Z-17Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STRATUS LAYER IS STARTING TO STABILIZE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN 7 KT OR LESS AND FAVOR A N-NE DIRECTION.
KAM

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER E WA WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS W WA WILL REMAIN WEAK AND WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE ECMWF REMAINS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE WA COAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL MIDDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
GENERATE SCA WINDS ON THE COAST AND IN SOME SPOTS OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 280428
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY.
LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL WITH LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING
THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE FOG AND LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND TONIGHT IN A BROAD PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVELS
WILL START OUT MOIST WITH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
SWITCH FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE EACH DAY.

HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT ACROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN WA. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY AND MAY SEE LOW 60S AGAIN. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON SUNDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES INTO B.C. THIS FRONT MAY CLIP THE AREA FOR LIGHT
RAIN. RAIN WILL INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MON AND TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS KEEPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA
TONIGHT ALONG WITH A BROAD WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY GIVING LIGHTER
FLOW ALOFT.

A WEAK DISSIPATING FRONT HAS LEFT A MOIST AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER W
WA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS BKN-OVC010-025 ARE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
ISOLATED IFR CIGS. A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IS PRESENT BETWEEN N
SEATTLE AND EVERETT BRINGING IFR CIGS/VIS IN -RA/-DZ. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK WINDS OVER W WA...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 10Z-18Z...TO GO ALONG
WITH THE MVFR CIGS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO BKN-OVC030-050 OR BETTER
AFTER AROUND 20Z. KAM

KSEA...A MOIST STABLE AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z. A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER SEATTLE EARLIER THIS EVENING MADE AN UNPLANNED SHIFT BACK NORTH
SO KSEA CIGS POPPED UP BRIEFLY. THE AIR MASS IS TOO MOIST FOR THIS
TO LAST. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES VISIBILITY GETTING DOWN TO 1/2SM
OVERNIGHT...AS OPPOSED TO JUST IFR CIGS. THIS IS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL SHIFT OVER E WA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK E TO NE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MOSTLY WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY GENERATE
SCA WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE SATURDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. FLOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT REACHED SCA LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING SO THE
SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS PLANNED. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 280428
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY.
LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL WITH LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING
THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE FOG AND LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND TONIGHT IN A BROAD PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVELS
WILL START OUT MOIST WITH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
SWITCH FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE EACH DAY.

HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT ACROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN WA. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY AND MAY SEE LOW 60S AGAIN. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON SUNDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES INTO B.C. THIS FRONT MAY CLIP THE AREA FOR LIGHT
RAIN. RAIN WILL INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL MON AND TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS KEEPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA
TONIGHT ALONG WITH A BROAD WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY GIVING LIGHTER
FLOW ALOFT.

A WEAK DISSIPATING FRONT HAS LEFT A MOIST AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER W
WA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS BKN-OVC010-025 ARE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
ISOLATED IFR CIGS. A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IS PRESENT BETWEEN N
SEATTLE AND EVERETT BRINGING IFR CIGS/VIS IN -RA/-DZ. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK WINDS OVER W WA...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 10Z-18Z...TO GO ALONG
WITH THE MVFR CIGS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO BKN-OVC030-050 OR BETTER
AFTER AROUND 20Z. KAM

KSEA...A MOIST STABLE AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z. A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER SEATTLE EARLIER THIS EVENING MADE AN UNPLANNED SHIFT BACK NORTH
SO KSEA CIGS POPPED UP BRIEFLY. THE AIR MASS IS TOO MOIST FOR THIS
TO LAST. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES VISIBILITY GETTING DOWN TO 1/2SM
OVERNIGHT...AS OPPOSED TO JUST IFR CIGS. THIS IS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL SHIFT OVER E WA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK E TO NE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MOSTLY WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY GENERATE
SCA WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE SATURDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. FLOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT REACHED SCA LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING SO THE
SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS PLANNED. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 272215
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT DISSIPATED OVER WESTERN WA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. PRECIP AMOUNTS
ARE LIGHT FROM A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED LIGHTS SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PAC NW. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST FOR CLOUDY
SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW THU AND FRI
FOR DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE LOWLANDS...THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
50S. 33

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
PAC NW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS
WESTERN WA. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY AND MAY SEE LOW
60S AGAIN. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO B.C. THIS FRONT MAY CLIP THE AREA FOR LIGHT RAIN. RAIN WILL
INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN. ZONAL
FLOW WILL PREVAIL MON AND TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS KEEPS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY
GIVING LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
EASE TONIGHT...THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT
DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA TODAY LEAVING A MOIST AND STABLE AIR MASS
WITH SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1000 FEET THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO 2-3K FT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
CHANGE IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE INLAND AT
FIRST...THEN LIGHT FLOW KEEPS THE AIR MASS MOIST AND STAGNANT. IFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. CEILING NEAR 1K FT WILL BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY 5-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE A FEW HOURS OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE STRAIT THIS EVENING. AN ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONT ARRIVES AROUND SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 272215
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT DISSIPATED OVER WESTERN WA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. PRECIP AMOUNTS
ARE LIGHT FROM A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED LIGHTS SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PAC NW. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST FOR CLOUDY
SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW THU AND FRI
FOR DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE LOWLANDS...THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
50S. 33

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
PAC NW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS
WESTERN WA. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY AND MAY SEE LOW
60S AGAIN. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO B.C. THIS FRONT MAY CLIP THE AREA FOR LIGHT RAIN. RAIN WILL
INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN. ZONAL
FLOW WILL PREVAIL MON AND TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS KEEPS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY
GIVING LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
EASE TONIGHT...THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT
DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA TODAY LEAVING A MOIST AND STABLE AIR MASS
WITH SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1000 FEET THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO 2-3K FT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
CHANGE IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE INLAND AT
FIRST...THEN LIGHT FLOW KEEPS THE AIR MASS MOIST AND STAGNANT. IFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. CEILING NEAR 1K FT WILL BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY 5-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE A FEW HOURS OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE STRAIT THIS EVENING. AN ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONT ARRIVES AROUND SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 271650
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS A
CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING FOR
CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS WESTERN WA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING CLOUDY BUT STABLE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST FOR CLOUDY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR
THE WA/OR BORDER FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW THU AND FRI
FOR DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE LOWLANDS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
50S. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
WRN WA ON SATURDAY WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNING SLY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SURPRISE TO THE UPSIDE. HOWEVER...IF INVERSIONS REMAIN
INTACT IT WILL BE COOLER WHICH IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE ECE/MEX
GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S WHICH IS ABOVE MOS BUT
BELOW THE POTENTIAL IN THIS SLY FLOW PATTERN.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL REACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. SO THE CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. A WEAK FRONT ALONG
THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MODERATELY ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY 1-2K FT WITH SOME IFR IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SPRINKLES AT
TIMES. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS
MOISTURE INLAND AT FIRST...THEN LIGHT FLOW KEEPS THE AIR MASS MOIST
AND STAGNANT. IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD CLEAR THINGS BY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A FEW HOURS
OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY 5-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY GIVE A FEW HOURS
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE STRAIT. AN ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. NEXT WEAK ARRIVES AROUND SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 271117
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS A
CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL FLATTEN
TODAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REACH THE COAST
LATER THIS MORNING AND THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. WV/IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SHOWING AN ELONGATED AND DIFFUSE CLOUD
BAND. RADAR IS ONLY PICKING UP BROKEN BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIP MOSTLY
OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH QUILLAYUTE HAD A TRACE EARLIER. THE HRRR DEPICTS A
SKINNY BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE REACHING THE COAST BY DAYBREAK BUT
NOT PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR UNTIL MIDDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST 00Z
MODELS...WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PUGET SOUND REGION EWD. BY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER WRN
WA THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS NOT MEASURING. WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MODELS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOTION. THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GFS RUNS HOLD
ONTO SOME RESIDUAL SPOTTY QPF BUT OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN THE
LACK OF DISCERNIBLE LIFT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SO HIGHS WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ON THURSDAY LIFTING THE STORM TRACK N
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. LIGHT FLOW AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS WARMING BY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER WRN WA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNING SLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES OFFSHORE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SURPRISE TO THE
UPSIDE. HOWEVER...IF INVERSIONS REMAIN INTACT IT WILL BE COOLER
WHICH IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE ECE/MEX GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S WHICH IS ABOVE MOS BUT BELOW THE POTENTIAL IN THIS
SLY FLOW PATTERN.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL REACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. SO THE CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN SW FLOW ALOFT OVER W WA. A WEAK FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS W WA TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE
CASCADES.

THE FRONT WILL SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND TODAY BUT NOT A LOT
OF RAIN. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY FORMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AT 10Z...AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN PATCHY FOG
AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE N INTERIOR AND
AROUND OLM...WITH VISIBILITIES 1/2SM OR LOWER. SO FAR THE FOG HAS
BEEN COMING AND GOING. IT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z UNTIL
THE STRATUS FINALLY SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A WEAK PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY FORM AFTER 21Z.

KSEA...NOW THAT MVFR CIGS BELOW 2000 FT HAVE FORMED OVER THE
TERMINAL...THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. THE CIGS MAY LOWER TO
IFR LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY 5-8 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND OVER W WA THIS MORNING
THEN WEAKEN OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD
INLAND BY MID DAY. W FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE STRAIT THIS EVENING
AND MAY REACH BORDERLINE SCA LEVELS FOR A SHORT TIME.

A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY WILL EXPAND INLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER E WA ON WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR AT LEAST THIS RUN...WITH THE
NEXT WEAK FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 271117
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS A
CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL FLATTEN
TODAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REACH THE COAST
LATER THIS MORNING AND THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. WV/IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SHOWING AN ELONGATED AND DIFFUSE CLOUD
BAND. RADAR IS ONLY PICKING UP BROKEN BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIP MOSTLY
OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH QUILLAYUTE HAD A TRACE EARLIER. THE HRRR DEPICTS A
SKINNY BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE REACHING THE COAST BY DAYBREAK BUT
NOT PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR UNTIL MIDDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST 00Z
MODELS...WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PUGET SOUND REGION EWD. BY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER WRN
WA THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS NOT MEASURING. WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MODELS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOTION. THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GFS RUNS HOLD
ONTO SOME RESIDUAL SPOTTY QPF BUT OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN THE
LACK OF DISCERNIBLE LIFT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SO HIGHS WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ON THURSDAY LIFTING THE STORM TRACK N
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. LIGHT FLOW AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS WARMING BY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER WRN WA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNING SLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES OFFSHORE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SURPRISE TO THE
UPSIDE. HOWEVER...IF INVERSIONS REMAIN INTACT IT WILL BE COOLER
WHICH IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE ECE/MEX GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S WHICH IS ABOVE MOS BUT BELOW THE POTENTIAL IN THIS
SLY FLOW PATTERN.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL REACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. SO THE CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN SW FLOW ALOFT OVER W WA. A WEAK FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS W WA TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE
CASCADES.

THE FRONT WILL SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND TODAY BUT NOT A LOT
OF RAIN. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY FORMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AT 10Z...AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN PATCHY FOG
AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE N INTERIOR AND
AROUND OLM...WITH VISIBILITIES 1/2SM OR LOWER. SO FAR THE FOG HAS
BEEN COMING AND GOING. IT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z UNTIL
THE STRATUS FINALLY SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A WEAK PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY FORM AFTER 21Z.

KSEA...NOW THAT MVFR CIGS BELOW 2000 FT HAVE FORMED OVER THE
TERMINAL...THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. THE CIGS MAY LOWER TO
IFR LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY 5-8 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND OVER W WA THIS MORNING
THEN WEAKEN OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD
INLAND BY MID DAY. W FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE STRAIT THIS EVENING
AND MAY REACH BORDERLINE SCA LEVELS FOR A SHORT TIME.

A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY WILL EXPAND INLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER E WA ON WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR AT LEAST THIS RUN...WITH THE
NEXT WEAK FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 270429
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OVER THE INTERIOR EARLIER TODAY BUT
HUNG AROUND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE STRAIT. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS
ARE WEAK ONSHORE THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD PARTIALLY INLAND. A WEAK FRONT OFFSHORE WILL REACH THE COAST
TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY. THE UPSHOT OF ALL OF
THIS IS INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LITTLE
RAIN TUESDAY...BEST CHANCES COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE ADDED CLOUDS
AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY A
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AND PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE EACH DAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE PAC NW FRI AND SAT FOR MORE DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA ON SUN. THIS WARM FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MORE CLOUDY AND RAINY WEATHER. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER IDAHO TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. A WEAK FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. MVFR
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE PUSHED INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR
AFTER 12Z. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR/LOW IFR CIGS. A WEAK PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY FORM AFTER 21Z.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z BUT MVFR
STRATUS SPREADING INLAND OVER SW PUGET SOUND SHOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. THE STRATUS REACHED KSHN AT 0125Z AND SEEMS
HEADED TOWARD KPWT AT 04Z. I HAVE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KSEA AT
09Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW DUE TO CONFLICTING
GUIDANCE. CIGS BKN-OVC015-025 SHOULD BE PRESENT BY 15Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN S 5-8 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THEN INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME MARGINAL SCA WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
20 KT OR LESS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INLAND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP OVER
E WA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 18Z GFS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE FOUR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 270429
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OVER THE INTERIOR EARLIER TODAY BUT
HUNG AROUND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE STRAIT. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS
ARE WEAK ONSHORE THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD PARTIALLY INLAND. A WEAK FRONT OFFSHORE WILL REACH THE COAST
TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY. THE UPSHOT OF ALL OF
THIS IS INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LITTLE
RAIN TUESDAY...BEST CHANCES COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE ADDED CLOUDS
AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY A
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AND PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE EACH DAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE PAC NW FRI AND SAT FOR MORE DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA ON SUN. THIS WARM FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MORE CLOUDY AND RAINY WEATHER. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER IDAHO TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. A WEAK FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. MVFR
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE PUSHED INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR
AFTER 12Z. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR/LOW IFR CIGS. A WEAK PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY FORM AFTER 21Z.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z BUT MVFR
STRATUS SPREADING INLAND OVER SW PUGET SOUND SHOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. THE STRATUS REACHED KSHN AT 0125Z AND SEEMS
HEADED TOWARD KPWT AT 04Z. I HAVE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KSEA AT
09Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW DUE TO CONFLICTING
GUIDANCE. CIGS BKN-OVC015-025 SHOULD BE PRESENT BY 15Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN S 5-8 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THEN INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME MARGINAL SCA WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
20 KT OR LESS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INLAND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP OVER
E WA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 18Z GFS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE FOUR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 262241
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE INTERIOR CLEARED OUT FOR ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. SEATAC HIT 60 DEGREES LAST HOUR WHICH
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 58 SET BACK IN 2003. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS
LINGERED ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLOUDY SKIES
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
ADVANCES OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO WESTERN WA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER ON
THE IR SATELLITE AND FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...TRACE TO FEW
HUNDREDTHS. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TUE NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS WESTERN WA. POPS WERE LOWERED AND REMOVED
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS RIDGE LOOKS DIRTY THOUGH WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVERHEAD AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER DRY AND
MILD DAY ON TAP...WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS
THE PAC NW FRI AND SAT FOR MORE DRY AND STABLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH DAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUN. THIS WARM
FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY FOR MORE CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER IDAHO TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. FLOW WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST MOVES ASHORE AND
DISSIPATES. AIR MASS STABLE AND DRY EXCEPT MOIST ON THE COAST AND
OVER THE STRAIT. INCREASING CLOUDS ALL LEVELS TONIGHT AS LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPS ON THE COAST.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT EXCEPT ON THE COAST WHERE THERE
ARE MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BY SOMETIME
TUESDAY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. IN THE MEANTIME SOME FOG
OR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN...PROBABLY PATCHES IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE FOG/STRATUS OVER THE STRAIT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

KSEA...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
MVFR CEILINGS AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A LITTLE FOG COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WIND 6-10 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE COAST. AN
APPROACHING FRONT IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INLAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS TO THE COAST AND HAVE 10-20 KT ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF SURGE OF WESTERLY WIND 10-20 KT IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AT
LEAST. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 262241
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE INTERIOR CLEARED OUT FOR ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. SEATAC HIT 60 DEGREES LAST HOUR WHICH
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 58 SET BACK IN 2003. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS
LINGERED ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLOUDY SKIES
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
ADVANCES OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO WESTERN WA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER ON
THE IR SATELLITE AND FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...TRACE TO FEW
HUNDREDTHS. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TUE NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS WESTERN WA. POPS WERE LOWERED AND REMOVED
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS RIDGE LOOKS DIRTY THOUGH WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVERHEAD AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER DRY AND
MILD DAY ON TAP...WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS
THE PAC NW FRI AND SAT FOR MORE DRY AND STABLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH DAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUN. THIS WARM
FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY FOR MORE CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER IDAHO TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. FLOW WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST MOVES ASHORE AND
DISSIPATES. AIR MASS STABLE AND DRY EXCEPT MOIST ON THE COAST AND
OVER THE STRAIT. INCREASING CLOUDS ALL LEVELS TONIGHT AS LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPS ON THE COAST.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT EXCEPT ON THE COAST WHERE THERE
ARE MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BY SOMETIME
TUESDAY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. IN THE MEANTIME SOME FOG
OR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN...PROBABLY PATCHES IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE FOG/STRATUS OVER THE STRAIT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

KSEA...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
MVFR CEILINGS AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A LITTLE FOG COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WIND 6-10 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE COAST. AN
APPROACHING FRONT IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INLAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS TO THE COAST AND HAVE 10-20 KT ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF SURGE OF WESTERLY WIND 10-20 KT IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AT
LEAST. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 261703
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
902 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVING DRY AND MILD WEATHER. THE NEXT
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEAR OR ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHALLOW DENSE FOG COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN WA
LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS.
BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF CLEARING AND THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER
LATE THIS MORNING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING ANOTHER
SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
ADVANCES OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO WESTERN WA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER ON
THE IR SATELLITE AND FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...TRACE TO FEW
HUNDREDTHS. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TUE NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE CASCADES. WED IS LOOKING DRIER AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WA. 33

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR A PERIOD OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER. INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO WRN WA. A
TRAILING SYSTEM LIFTS INTO B.C. WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO WRN WA BEYOND SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER IDAHO TODAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. FLOW WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
DISSIPATES. AIR MASS STABLE AND DRY WITH AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS BELOW
1000 FEET THIS MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS ALL LEVELS TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL FOG AT MOST TERMINALS BUT A BURST OF SOUTHERLY WIND
EARLY THIS MORNING LIFTED MUCH OF THE FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK. FOG
AND STRATUS IS MAINLY OVER MARINE AREAS AND LAND AREAS NEAR THE
WATER. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING GIVING SUNNY SKIES
OVER THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS ON THE EDGE OF A FOG PATCH AND COULD SLIDE IN
AND OUT OF THE FOG UNTIL 18Z OR SO. SUNNY AFTER THAT. SOUTHERLY WIND
6-10 KT. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL FORM A CEILING SOMETIME TONIGHT
AND THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TUESDAY. CHB

&&

.MARINE...AN APPROACHING FRONT HAS TURNED WIND SOUTHERLY THIS
MORNING AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH ON
THE COAST. AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON THE COAST TODAY. THE FRONT IS
WEAK SO FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED WINDS ELSEWHERE TO 10-20 KT. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF SURGE OF WESTERLY WIND 10-20 KT IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AT
LEAST. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA....DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
      THE LOWLANDS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 261120
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVING DRY AND MILD WEATHER. THE NEXT
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEAR OR ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR SURFACE BASED MOISTURE ALLOWED
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOST OB
SITES ARE REPORTING FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE
COMMON. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST THE LOWLANDS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. GFS/NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW THE
INVERSION CAP BREAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON SO CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. PER USUAL...THE SW INTERIOR/S PUGET SOUND WILL BE ONE OF
THE LAST PLACES TO LOSE THE FOG WHICH COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL THROUGH THE DAY BACK BELOW
5700M RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
REGARDLESS...EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MAY BREAK
RECORDS IN SOME PLACES. THE RECORD HIGH FOR SEA-TAC IS 58 AND THE
FORECAST IS FOR 59.

THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER AND STARTS TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. AN ELONGATED AND DIFFUSE LOOKING FRONTAL SYSTEM SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TOWARD WRN WA. 00Z MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
THE SATELLITE TRENDS. DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AT THE COAST BY LATER
TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS SHOW THE FRONTAL BAND
DISSIPATING AS IT PUSHES INLAND SO THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY. LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED AND SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE. IT WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE WEAK TRAILING SHORT
WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE
INCONSISTENCIES...MOST MODELS INDICATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF AROUND
WRN WA. IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP THE SLIGHT RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR A PERIOD OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER. INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO WRN WA. A
TRAILING SYSTEM LIFTS INTO B.C. WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO WRN WA BEYOND SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY.  RIDGE
AXIS EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. RIDGE WEAKENING
TONIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. AMS STABLE AND MOIST
BELOW 1500 FEET THIS MORNING.

WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES 1/2 SM OR LESS AND CEILINGS 200 FEET OR LESS
AT 10Z. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THIS MORNING. NO TOP REPORTS YET THIS MORNING BUT SANDPOINT PROFILER
SHOWS THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AROUND 400 TO 500 METERS SO EXPECT
THE TOPS TO BE 1000-1500 FEET MSL. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER AND THE SURFACE GRADIENTS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATER THIS
MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN A LATE MORNING/MIDDAY BREAKOUT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. IN THE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE KOLM THE FOG COULD LAST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

KSEA...CEILINGS AOB 200 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 1/2SM OR LESS UNTIL
MID MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW LAYER RAPID IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. LIGHT WINDS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING. A 1000 MB LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO HAIDA GWAII LATER TODAY INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INLAND WATERS.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE TUESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO LIGHT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM PST FOR THE LOWLAND ZONES
     EXCLUDING THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND NORTH COAST.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 261120
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVING DRY AND MILD WEATHER. THE NEXT
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEAR OR ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR SURFACE BASED MOISTURE ALLOWED
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOST OB
SITES ARE REPORTING FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE
COMMON. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST THE LOWLANDS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. GFS/NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW THE
INVERSION CAP BREAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON SO CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. PER USUAL...THE SW INTERIOR/S PUGET SOUND WILL BE ONE OF
THE LAST PLACES TO LOSE THE FOG WHICH COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL THROUGH THE DAY BACK BELOW
5700M RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
REGARDLESS...EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MAY BREAK
RECORDS IN SOME PLACES. THE RECORD HIGH FOR SEA-TAC IS 58 AND THE
FORECAST IS FOR 59.

THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER AND STARTS TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. AN ELONGATED AND DIFFUSE LOOKING FRONTAL SYSTEM SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TOWARD WRN WA. 00Z MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
THE SATELLITE TRENDS. DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AT THE COAST BY LATER
TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS SHOW THE FRONTAL BAND
DISSIPATING AS IT PUSHES INLAND SO THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY. LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED AND SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE. IT WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE WEAK TRAILING SHORT
WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE
INCONSISTENCIES...MOST MODELS INDICATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF AROUND
WRN WA. IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP THE SLIGHT RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR A PERIOD OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER. INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO WRN WA. A
TRAILING SYSTEM LIFTS INTO B.C. WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO WRN WA BEYOND SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY.  RIDGE
AXIS EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. RIDGE WEAKENING
TONIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. AMS STABLE AND MOIST
BELOW 1500 FEET THIS MORNING.

WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES 1/2 SM OR LESS AND CEILINGS 200 FEET OR LESS
AT 10Z. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THIS MORNING. NO TOP REPORTS YET THIS MORNING BUT SANDPOINT PROFILER
SHOWS THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AROUND 400 TO 500 METERS SO EXPECT
THE TOPS TO BE 1000-1500 FEET MSL. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER AND THE SURFACE GRADIENTS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATER THIS
MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN A LATE MORNING/MIDDAY BREAKOUT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. IN THE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE KOLM THE FOG COULD LAST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

KSEA...CEILINGS AOB 200 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 1/2SM OR LESS UNTIL
MID MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW LAYER RAPID IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. LIGHT WINDS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING. A 1000 MB LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO HAIDA GWAII LATER TODAY INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INLAND WATERS.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE TUESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO LIGHT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM PST FOR THE LOWLAND ZONES
     EXCLUDING THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND NORTH COAST.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















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