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000
FXUS66 KSEW 201024
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONGER AND
MUCH WETTER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
WESTERN WA OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE INTERIOR. RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING WITH STEADY
RAIN COMING TO AN END. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. SO
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER
INLAND AND WEAKENS.

WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON TUE ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS.

EXPECT A WET PERIOD OF WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF AK STEERS A PLUME OF MOISTURE THROUGH WESTERN WA.
THE COAST MAY SEE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES IN
THE INTERIOR AND 1-3 INCHES IN THE CASCADES. THE SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 6000-7000 FT. MODELS SHOW THE HEAVY PRECIP COMING IN BATCHES
SO WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN BETWEEN...ALTHOUGH THAT IS RATHER
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY. THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR WILL ALSO
SEE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SAG SOUTH WED NIGHT WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
HEAVY PRECIP SOUTH INTO OREGON.

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THUR BUT WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING
AT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...STEADY HEAVY PRECIP NOT EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES WESTERN WA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO
BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER...MAYBE SUN NIGHT OR MON. THEN ANOTHER WET PAC SYSTEM
WILL DRAG THROUGH THE REGION MON NIGHT OR TUE. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO
FLOOD STAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
OLYMPICS OVER THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING
RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST AND SW INTERIOR.

KSEA...RAIN AT TIMES...BECOMING SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING. SE WIND
4-6 KT...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE INLAND WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOW-END
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE EASING. W-SW
SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SMALL
CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR HAVE EASED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WATERS N OF ADMIRALTY
INLET. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND
FRIDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE COAST...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLET WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 200406
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
906 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A
STRONGER AND MUCH WETTER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO AREAS
WEST OF PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST
OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DRAGS INLAND. RAIN HAS
BEEN FAIRLY HEAVY ALONG THE N COAST WITH OVER AN INCH SO FAR AT
QUILLAYUTE AND FORKS. AWAY FROM THE OLYMPICS WHERE TERRAIN IS
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS. ACCORDING TO
THE SHORT RANGE HRRR GUIDANCE THE RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE N
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO SOAK THE OLYMPICS ALL NIGHT.
RAIN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AROUND MIDNIGHT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
FINALLY WEAKENS OVER THE CASCADES. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W AT 03Z/8 PM. THE AIR MASS UNDER THE
TROUGH LOOKS NICELY UNSTABLE ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTING STRIKES SHOWING UP OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING AND
PROBABLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND PART WAY INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS LIFTED INDICES GET DOWN TO ABOUT -2 OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM HQM SOUNDING HAS -3 AND CAPE AROUND
700 J/KG. I WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COAST
AND COASTAL WATERS FOR MONDAY.

MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITH
RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. THE SCREAMING MESSAGE REMAINS THE
SAME...VERY WET WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE OLYMPICS.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW A WEAK FRONT EMERGING OUT OF THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY FAR OFFSHORE ALONG 160W. THIS FRONT REACHES 130W AROUND
12Z/5 AM TUESDAY. EARLIER MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING THE COAST TUESDAY...BUT THE LATEST CONSENSUS SOLUTION IS
FOR A STRONG WAVE...DRIVEN ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC BY A 140KT JET
STREAK...TO OVERTAKE THE FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WARM FRONT INTENSIFYING JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE
INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE COAST AND N INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DRENCH
THE COAST AND OLYMPICS. 850 MB WINDS S-SW 60 KT SHOULD AID
OROGRAPHIC PRECIP OVER THE OLYMPICS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER INTERIOR AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF THE
PRECIP SHIFTING OVER THE CASCADES AND WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVY
RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A 4-5
INCH BULLSEYE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND UP TO AN INCH OVER THE LOWLANDS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING IN THE MOIST SW FLOW
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER. OF COURSE
SINCE THE DETAILS HAVE BEEN A BIT OF A MOVING TARGET THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BE PREPARED FOR CHANGES. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...THE PATTERN
LOOKS MORE SHOWERY IN BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ON FRIDAY. MODELS
THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWERY ON THE WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF SHOWERS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS MAY BE MORE LIKELY ON THE
COAST. HEIGHTS DO FALL A BIT SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LOWER...MAYBE
BELOW 50 DEGREES. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...3 PM DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET
BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE OLYMPICS WILL
GET THE MOST RAIN WITH PERHAPS 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND
RAINY EVENT OVER THE OLYMPICS IN THREE DAYS. YESTERDAY MORNING THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER REACHED 15.3 FEET AND IT IS LIKELY TO GET AROUND
THAT HIGH AGAIN ON MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE ON THE SKOKOMISH IS 16.5 FEET.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. MODELS
CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER THE PAC NW
MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH THROUGH
WRN WA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG SLY FLOW
ALOFT...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MOIST
AND STABLE CONDITIONS...BECOMING UNSTABLE ON MONDAY. RAIN TONIGHT
WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.

KSEA...MID OR HIGH CLOUDS. CEILINGS LOWERING LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
MONDAY AS RAIN CHANGES TO SHOWERS. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE INLAND
WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE. SMALL CRAFT SLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WATERS N OF
PUGET SOUND. WINDS EASING BELOW 20 KT THROUGHOUT BY MONDAY MORNING.
10 TO 13 FOOT WEST SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS UP FOR
SWELL OVER THE COAST AND W ENTRANCE MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS LATER THIS
WEEK. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ONE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EACH
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO
MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCHNEIDER/DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS TONIGHT EXCEPT PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE
     MONDAY.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 200406
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
906 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A
STRONGER AND MUCH WETTER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO AREAS
WEST OF PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST
OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DRAGS INLAND. RAIN HAS
BEEN FAIRLY HEAVY ALONG THE N COAST WITH OVER AN INCH SO FAR AT
QUILLAYUTE AND FORKS. AWAY FROM THE OLYMPICS WHERE TERRAIN IS
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS. ACCORDING TO
THE SHORT RANGE HRRR GUIDANCE THE RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE N
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO SOAK THE OLYMPICS ALL NIGHT.
RAIN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AROUND MIDNIGHT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
FINALLY WEAKENS OVER THE CASCADES. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W AT 03Z/8 PM. THE AIR MASS UNDER THE
TROUGH LOOKS NICELY UNSTABLE ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTING STRIKES SHOWING UP OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING AND
PROBABLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND PART WAY INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS LIFTED INDICES GET DOWN TO ABOUT -2 OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM HQM SOUNDING HAS -3 AND CAPE AROUND
700 J/KG. I WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COAST
AND COASTAL WATERS FOR MONDAY.

MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITH
RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. THE SCREAMING MESSAGE REMAINS THE
SAME...VERY WET WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE OLYMPICS.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW A WEAK FRONT EMERGING OUT OF THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY FAR OFFSHORE ALONG 160W. THIS FRONT REACHES 130W AROUND
12Z/5 AM TUESDAY. EARLIER MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING THE COAST TUESDAY...BUT THE LATEST CONSENSUS SOLUTION IS
FOR A STRONG WAVE...DRIVEN ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC BY A 140KT JET
STREAK...TO OVERTAKE THE FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WARM FRONT INTENSIFYING JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE
INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE COAST AND N INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DRENCH
THE COAST AND OLYMPICS. 850 MB WINDS S-SW 60 KT SHOULD AID
OROGRAPHIC PRECIP OVER THE OLYMPICS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER INTERIOR AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF THE
PRECIP SHIFTING OVER THE CASCADES AND WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVY
RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A 4-5
INCH BULLSEYE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND UP TO AN INCH OVER THE LOWLANDS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING IN THE MOIST SW FLOW
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER. OF COURSE
SINCE THE DETAILS HAVE BEEN A BIT OF A MOVING TARGET THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BE PREPARED FOR CHANGES. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...THE PATTERN
LOOKS MORE SHOWERY IN BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ON FRIDAY. MODELS
THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWERY ON THE WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF SHOWERS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS MAY BE MORE LIKELY ON THE
COAST. HEIGHTS DO FALL A BIT SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LOWER...MAYBE
BELOW 50 DEGREES. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...3 PM DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET
BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE OLYMPICS WILL
GET THE MOST RAIN WITH PERHAPS 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND
RAINY EVENT OVER THE OLYMPICS IN THREE DAYS. YESTERDAY MORNING THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER REACHED 15.3 FEET AND IT IS LIKELY TO GET AROUND
THAT HIGH AGAIN ON MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE ON THE SKOKOMISH IS 16.5 FEET.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. MODELS
CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER THE PAC NW
MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH THROUGH
WRN WA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG SLY FLOW
ALOFT...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MOIST
AND STABLE CONDITIONS...BECOMING UNSTABLE ON MONDAY. RAIN TONIGHT
WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.

KSEA...MID OR HIGH CLOUDS. CEILINGS LOWERING LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
MONDAY AS RAIN CHANGES TO SHOWERS. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE INLAND
WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE. SMALL CRAFT SLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WATERS N OF
PUGET SOUND. WINDS EASING BELOW 20 KT THROUGHOUT BY MONDAY MORNING.
10 TO 13 FOOT WEST SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS UP FOR
SWELL OVER THE COAST AND W ENTRANCE MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS LATER THIS
WEEK. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ONE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EACH
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO
MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCHNEIDER/DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS TONIGHT EXCEPT PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE
     MONDAY.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 192156
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CONTINUING OFF AND
ON INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS FRIDAY COULD BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN JUST BEGAN ON THE NORTH COAST AND IT WILL SPREAD
INLAND OVERNIGHT. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE MONDAY MORNING FOR
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. THE RAINIEST AREA WILL
BE THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY. LOWLANDS
WILL GENERALLY SEE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE GFS
AND NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SAG THE FRONT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT EXACTLY DRY THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE RAIN
OVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO GET HEAVY RAIN...THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
THE EURO MODEL KEEPS HEAVY RAIN GOING LONGER IN THE OLYMPICS BUT
DOES MOVE THE HEAVY RAIN AREA SOUTH INTO OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPSHOT IS THAT HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A 4-5 INCH BULLSEYE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND UP TO AN
INCH OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ALL FOUR DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE SHOWERY IN BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
MODELS ON FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWERY ON
THE WEEKEND BUT THE EURO BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF SHOWERS
LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SHOWERS MAY BE MORE LIKELY ON THE COAST. HEIGHTS DO FALL A BIT SO
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LOWER...MAYBE BELOW 50 DEGREES. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT HAVE
ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE OLYMPICS WILL GET THE MOST RAIN
WITH PERHAPS 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND RAINY EVENT OVER THE
OLYMPICS IN THREE DAYS. YESTERDAY MORNING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
REACHED 15.3 FEET AND IT IS LIKELY TO GET AROUND THAT HIGH AGAIN ON
MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE ON THE SKOKOMISH IS 16.5 FEET.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. MODELS
CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AIR MASS STABLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAINING MOIST.

KSEA...MID OR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH
RAIN DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER MONDAY AS RAIN CHANGES TO SHOWERS. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT
ALONG WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MOST OTHER WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES INLAND. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL MONDAY ALL WATERS IN BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. 10 TO 13 FOOT WEST SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS HOWEVER.

ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS LATER THIS
WEEK. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ONE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EACH
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO
MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND
     AND HOOD CANAL.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 192156
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CONTINUING OFF AND
ON INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS FRIDAY COULD BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN JUST BEGAN ON THE NORTH COAST AND IT WILL SPREAD
INLAND OVERNIGHT. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE MONDAY MORNING FOR
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. THE RAINIEST AREA WILL
BE THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY. LOWLANDS
WILL GENERALLY SEE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE GFS
AND NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SAG THE FRONT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT EXACTLY DRY THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE RAIN
OVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO GET HEAVY RAIN...THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
THE EURO MODEL KEEPS HEAVY RAIN GOING LONGER IN THE OLYMPICS BUT
DOES MOVE THE HEAVY RAIN AREA SOUTH INTO OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPSHOT IS THAT HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A 4-5 INCH BULLSEYE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND UP TO AN
INCH OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ALL FOUR DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE SHOWERY IN BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
MODELS ON FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWERY ON
THE WEEKEND BUT THE EURO BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF SHOWERS
LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SHOWERS MAY BE MORE LIKELY ON THE COAST. HEIGHTS DO FALL A BIT SO
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LOWER...MAYBE BELOW 50 DEGREES. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT HAVE
ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE OLYMPICS WILL GET THE MOST RAIN
WITH PERHAPS 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND RAINY EVENT OVER THE
OLYMPICS IN THREE DAYS. YESTERDAY MORNING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
REACHED 15.3 FEET AND IT IS LIKELY TO GET AROUND THAT HIGH AGAIN ON
MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE ON THE SKOKOMISH IS 16.5 FEET.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. MODELS
CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AIR MASS STABLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAINING MOIST.

KSEA...MID OR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH
RAIN DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER MONDAY AS RAIN CHANGES TO SHOWERS. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT
ALONG WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MOST OTHER WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES INLAND. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL MONDAY ALL WATERS IN BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. 10 TO 13 FOOT WEST SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS HOWEVER.

ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS LATER THIS
WEEK. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ONE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EACH
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO
MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND
     AND HOOD CANAL.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 191618
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY
OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE COAST AND OLYMPICS WHERE CLOUDS FROM AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL BE 65-70 AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS 55-60. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON ON THE COAST AND HIGHS THERE WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S.

RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT...THEN TURN TO SHOWERS MONDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 WITH
LOWS AROUND 50 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRI. THE EURO
MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS AN UPPER
LOW INLAND FOR MORE RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CROSS THE REGION
FOR MORE SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS OFF IN
THE MODELS. THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD
AND WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO CLIMO. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AN
INCH PLUS TO THE OLYMPICS...AND THE NEXT ONE WILL BRING PERHAPS
ANOTHER 2 INCHES. THESE WILL SERVE TO PRIME THE PUMP...SO TO SPEAK.
PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS WILL BECOME WET AND NEARLY EMPTY RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL RISE TO WET SEASON LEVELS.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
OUTLIER EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN SOME MORE RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA SHOULD RISE SIGNIFICANTLY...PERHAPS TO FLOOD
STAGE. MODELS DO CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABLE WITH MOSTLY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT
THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME MOIST ALL AREAS WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.

KSEA...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. THERE IS SOME FOG OVER THE SOUTH
SOUND BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER WITH RAIN DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WIND 4 TO 8
KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL BRING GALES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OTHER WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE A
BIT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE
LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND
     HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 191618
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY
OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE COAST AND OLYMPICS WHERE CLOUDS FROM AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL BE 65-70 AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS 55-60. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON ON THE COAST AND HIGHS THERE WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S.

RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT...THEN TURN TO SHOWERS MONDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 WITH
LOWS AROUND 50 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRI. THE EURO
MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS AN UPPER
LOW INLAND FOR MORE RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CROSS THE REGION
FOR MORE SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS OFF IN
THE MODELS. THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD
AND WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO CLIMO. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AN
INCH PLUS TO THE OLYMPICS...AND THE NEXT ONE WILL BRING PERHAPS
ANOTHER 2 INCHES. THESE WILL SERVE TO PRIME THE PUMP...SO TO SPEAK.
PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS WILL BECOME WET AND NEARLY EMPTY RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL RISE TO WET SEASON LEVELS.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
OUTLIER EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN SOME MORE RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA SHOULD RISE SIGNIFICANTLY...PERHAPS TO FLOOD
STAGE. MODELS DO CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABLE WITH MOSTLY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT
THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME MOIST ALL AREAS WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.

KSEA...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. THERE IS SOME FOG OVER THE SOUTH
SOUND BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER WITH RAIN DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WIND 4 TO 8
KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL BRING GALES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OTHER WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE A
BIT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE
LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND
     HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 191025
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY
OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH LEAD TO PRETTY
MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOTS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S. THE
WARM FRONT IS OVER B.C. BUT THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING OVER
THE NORTH COAST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE
TODAY...BECOMING NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND
TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW RAIN HOLDING OFF IN THE INTERIOR UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MON MORNING LOOKS
RATHER WET FOR THE INTERIOR AS THE FRONT DRAGS THROUGH. A COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL NUDGE INLAND MON AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH PART OF THE CWA.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON TUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE RAIN TUE
EVENING AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL STEER MOIST SW FLOW INTO
WESTERN WA ON WED FOR ANOTHER WET PERIOD OF WEATHER. MODELS SHOW UP
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE
OLYMPICS. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT
INTO THU...WITH THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIP /1-2 INCHES/ SHIFTING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CASCADES. THE INTERIOR MAY SEE AN INCH
OF RAIN OVER THIS PERIOD. 33

.LONG TERM...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT
THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRI. THE EURO MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER
WITH THE RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INLAND FOR MORE
RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CROSS THE REGION FOR MORE SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS OFF IN THE MODELS.
THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO CLIMO. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AN
INCH PLUS TO THE OLYMPICS...AND THE NEXT ONE WILL BRING PERHAPS
ANOTHER 2 INCHES. THESE WILL SERVE TO PRIME THE PUMP...SO TO SPEAK.
PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS WILL BECOME WET AND NEARLY EMPTY RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL RISE TO WET SEASON LEVELS.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
OUTLIER EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN SOME MORE RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA SHOULD RISE SIGNIFICANTLY...PERHAPS TO FLOOD
STAGE. MODELS DO CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE
EVENING. STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT. AIR MASS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MAINLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING EXCEPT MOIST AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FOG AROUND PUGET SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR. FOG WILL BREAK UP AN
LIFT BY MID MORNING. RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST BY
MIDDAY...THEN OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE EVENING.

KSEA...FOG OVER THE S PUGET SOUND IS MIGRATING NWD AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH MID
MORNING. INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND MIXING SHOULD BREAK UP THE FOG BY
16-17Z. RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR SKIES.
DTM

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
PUSH THROUGH THE INTERIOR WATERS DURING THE EVENING. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS
WILL DEVELOP FROM ADMIRALTY INLET NWD. WINDS WILL EASE BELOW 20 KT
THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.

ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE
LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT...ADMIRALTY
     INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 191025
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY
OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH LEAD TO PRETTY
MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOTS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S. THE
WARM FRONT IS OVER B.C. BUT THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING OVER
THE NORTH COAST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE
TODAY...BECOMING NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND
TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW RAIN HOLDING OFF IN THE INTERIOR UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MON MORNING LOOKS
RATHER WET FOR THE INTERIOR AS THE FRONT DRAGS THROUGH. A COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL NUDGE INLAND MON AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH PART OF THE CWA.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON TUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE RAIN TUE
EVENING AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL STEER MOIST SW FLOW INTO
WESTERN WA ON WED FOR ANOTHER WET PERIOD OF WEATHER. MODELS SHOW UP
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE
OLYMPICS. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT
INTO THU...WITH THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIP /1-2 INCHES/ SHIFTING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CASCADES. THE INTERIOR MAY SEE AN INCH
OF RAIN OVER THIS PERIOD. 33

.LONG TERM...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT
THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRI. THE EURO MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER
WITH THE RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INLAND FOR MORE
RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CROSS THE REGION FOR MORE SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS OFF IN THE MODELS.
THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO CLIMO. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AN
INCH PLUS TO THE OLYMPICS...AND THE NEXT ONE WILL BRING PERHAPS
ANOTHER 2 INCHES. THESE WILL SERVE TO PRIME THE PUMP...SO TO SPEAK.
PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS WILL BECOME WET AND NEARLY EMPTY RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL RISE TO WET SEASON LEVELS.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
OUTLIER EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN SOME MORE RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA SHOULD RISE SIGNIFICANTLY...PERHAPS TO FLOOD
STAGE. MODELS DO CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE
EVENING. STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT. AIR MASS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MAINLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING EXCEPT MOIST AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FOG AROUND PUGET SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR. FOG WILL BREAK UP AN
LIFT BY MID MORNING. RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST BY
MIDDAY...THEN OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE EVENING.

KSEA...FOG OVER THE S PUGET SOUND IS MIGRATING NWD AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH MID
MORNING. INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND MIXING SHOULD BREAK UP THE FOG BY
16-17Z. RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR SKIES.
DTM

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
PUSH THROUGH THE INTERIOR WATERS DURING THE EVENING. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS
WILL DEVELOP FROM ADMIRALTY INLET NWD. WINDS WILL EASE BELOW 20 KT
THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.

ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE
LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT...ADMIRALTY
     INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 190548 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
858 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY
OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS STILL SHOWING SOME REALLY SPOTTY RAIN ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT IT SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILT OVER THE PACNW TODAY WITH A
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK SHIFTING THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE AXES OVER THE ID PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT...THEREBY INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER W WA.
THIS WILL DRY OUT THE W WA INTERIOR A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY AND BOOST
MAX TEMPS TO THE 65-70 RANGE. NAM AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING A LAYER OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 850MB-700MB MOVING N OVER PUGET SOUND FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY...SO IT MAY CUT BACK A BIT MORE ON SUNSHINE.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WAS APPROACHING 130W THIS EVENING.
A WAVE PROPAGATING UP THE FRONT IS CAUSING IT TO SLOW A BIT AND
STRENGTHEN BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ON SCHEDULE FOR ITS ARRIVAL OVER W
WA. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED REACH THE N COAST SUNDAY MORNING THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL DRAG ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. TOTAL PRECIP ON THE COAST WILL BE 1.00-1.80
INCHES WITH 0.20-0.50 OVER THE INTERIOR. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN ENOUGH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY
S-SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE PARTS OF THE N INTERIOR
PRONE TO STRONGER S-SE WINDS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE AIR MASS OFFSHORE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SO SHOWERS LOOK GOOD MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS NOW SHOW A SKINNY WEAKENING FRONT REACHING THE COAST ON
TUESDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...MODELS BRING
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS BEFORE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING ANOTHER
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY WITH...CRUCIALLY...LULLS IN
THE RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE EURO PATTERN IS MORE OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
TURN MORE SHOWERY FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A DRY SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE QPF GRIDS ARE BASICALLY THE
WRF-GFS-EXTENDED WHICH HAS SOME LULLS BUT ALSO HAS A PARTICULARLY
WET PERIOD OVER THE OLYMPICS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF 4-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
OLYMPICS DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY STEADY OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 AND LOWS NEAR 50. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 PM...THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING.
THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AN INCH PLUS TO THE OLYMPICS...AND THE
NEXT ONE WILL BRING PERHAPS ANOTHER 2 INCHES. THESE WILL SERVE TO
PRIME THE PUMP...SO TO SPEAK. PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS WILL BECOME WET
AND NEARLY EMPTY RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL RISE TO WET
SEASON LEVELS.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
OUTLIER EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN SOME MORE RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA SHOULD RISE SIGNIFICANTLY...PERHAPS TO FLOOD
STAGE. MODELS DO CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR PAC NW
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. A
TROUGH WILL BRING A FRONT ONTO THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLY IN THE EVENING. STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT.
AIR MASS STABLE WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
THE COAST...SW INTERIOR...AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA CAN EXPECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR OR IFR STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 7K FT TONIGHT. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT PATCHY MVFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE TERMINAL.
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF GIVE THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. ELY WIND 4-8
KT BECOMING SLY TO 10 KT AFTER MIDDAY SUNDAY. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH THROUGH THE INTERIOR WATERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GALES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE W ENTRANCE
TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EASING LATE IN
THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN STRAIT AND NRN INLAND WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE BELOW
20 KT THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A THIRD SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS.
GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SCHNEIDER/DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT AND NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 190357
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
858 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY
OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS STILL SHOWING SOME REALLY SPOTTY RAIN ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT IT SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILT OVER THE PACNW TODAY WITH A
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK SHIFTING THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE AXES OVER THE ID PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT...THEREBY INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER W WA.
THIS WILL DRY OUT THE W WA INTERIOR A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY AND BOOST
MAX TEMPS TO THE 65-70 RANGE. NAM AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING A LAYER OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 850MB-700MB MOVING N OVER PUGET SOUND FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY...SO IT MAY CUT BACK A BIT MORE ON SUNSHINE.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WAS APPROACHING 130W THIS EVENING.
A WAVE PROPAGATING UP THE FRONT IS CAUSING IT TO SLOW A BIT AND
STRENGTHEN BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ON SCHEDULE FOR ITS ARRIVAL OVER W
WA. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED REACH THE N COAST SUNDAY MORNING THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL DRAG ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. TOTAL PRECIP ON THE COAST WILL BE 1.00-1.80
INCHES WITH 0.20-0.50 OVER THE INTERIOR. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN ENOUGH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY
S-SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE PARTS OF THE N INTERIOR
PRONE TO STRONGER S-SE WINDS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE AIR MASS OFFSHORE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SO SHOWERS LOOK GOOD MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS NOW SHOW A SKINNY WEAKENING FRONT REACHING THE COAST ON
TUESDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...MODELS BRING
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS BEFORE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING ANOTHER
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY WITH...CRUCIALLY...LULLS IN
THE RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE EURO PATTERN IS MORE OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
TURN MORE SHOWERY FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A DRY SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE QPF GRIDS ARE BASICALLY THE
WRF-GFS-EXTENDED WHICH HAS SOME LULLS BUT ALSO HAS A PARTICULARLY
WET PERIOD OVER THE OLYMPICS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF 4-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
OLYMPICS DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY STEADY OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 AND LOWS NEAR 50. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 PM...THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING.
THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AN INCH PLUS TO THE OLYMPICS...AND THE
NEXT ONE WILL BRING PERHAPS ANOTHER 2 INCHES. THESE WILL SERVE TO
PRIME THE PUMP...SO TO SPEAK. PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS WILL BECOME WET
AND NEARLY EMPTY RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL RISE TO WET
SEASON LEVELS.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
OUTLIER EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN SOME MORE RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA SHOULD RISE SIGNIFICANTLY...PERHAPS TO FLOOD
STAGE. MODELS DO CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR PAC NW
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. A
TROUGH WILL BRING A FRONT ONTO THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLY IN THE EVENING. STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT.
AIR MASS STABLE WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
THE COAST...SW INTERIOR...AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA CAN EXPECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR OR IFR STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 7K FT TONIGHT. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT PATCHY MVFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE TERMINAL.
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF GIVE THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. ELY WIND 4-8
KT BECOMING SLY TO 10 KT AFTER MIDDAY SUNDAY. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH THROUGH THE INTERIOR WATERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GALES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE W ENTRANCE
TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EASING LATE IN
THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN STRAIT AND NRN INLAND WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE BELOW
20 KT THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A THIRD SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS.
GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SCHNEIDER/DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT AND NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 190357
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
858 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY
OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS STILL SHOWING SOME REALLY SPOTTY RAIN ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT IT SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILT OVER THE PACNW TODAY WITH A
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK SHIFTING THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE AXES OVER THE ID PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT...THEREBY INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER W WA.
THIS WILL DRY OUT THE W WA INTERIOR A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY AND BOOST
MAX TEMPS TO THE 65-70 RANGE. NAM AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING A LAYER OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 850MB-700MB MOVING N OVER PUGET SOUND FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY...SO IT MAY CUT BACK A BIT MORE ON SUNSHINE.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WAS APPROACHING 130W THIS EVENING.
A WAVE PROPAGATING UP THE FRONT IS CAUSING IT TO SLOW A BIT AND
STRENGTHEN BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ON SCHEDULE FOR ITS ARRIVAL OVER W
WA. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED REACH THE N COAST SUNDAY MORNING THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL DRAG ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. TOTAL PRECIP ON THE COAST WILL BE 1.00-1.80
INCHES WITH 0.20-0.50 OVER THE INTERIOR. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN ENOUGH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY
S-SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE PARTS OF THE N INTERIOR
PRONE TO STRONGER S-SE WINDS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE AIR MASS OFFSHORE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SO SHOWERS LOOK GOOD MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS NOW SHOW A SKINNY WEAKENING FRONT REACHING THE COAST ON
TUESDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...MODELS BRING
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS BEFORE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING ANOTHER
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY WITH...CRUCIALLY...LULLS IN
THE RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE EURO PATTERN IS MORE OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
TURN MORE SHOWERY FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A DRY SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE QPF GRIDS ARE BASICALLY THE
WRF-GFS-EXTENDED WHICH HAS SOME LULLS BUT ALSO HAS A PARTICULARLY
WET PERIOD OVER THE OLYMPICS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF 4-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
OLYMPICS DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY STEADY OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 AND LOWS NEAR 50. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 PM...THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING.
THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AN INCH PLUS TO THE OLYMPICS...AND THE
NEXT ONE WILL BRING PERHAPS ANOTHER 2 INCHES. THESE WILL SERVE TO
PRIME THE PUMP...SO TO SPEAK. PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS WILL BECOME WET
AND NEARLY EMPTY RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL RISE TO WET
SEASON LEVELS.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
OUTLIER EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN SOME MORE RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA SHOULD RISE SIGNIFICANTLY...PERHAPS TO FLOOD
STAGE. MODELS DO CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR PAC NW
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. A
TROUGH WILL BRING A FRONT ONTO THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLY IN THE EVENING. STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT.
AIR MASS STABLE WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
THE COAST...SW INTERIOR...AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA CAN EXPECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR OR IFR STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 7K FT TONIGHT. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT PATCHY MVFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE TERMINAL.
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF GIVE THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. ELY WIND 4-8
KT BECOMING SLY TO 10 KT AFTER MIDDAY SUNDAY. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH THROUGH THE INTERIOR WATERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GALES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE W ENTRANCE
TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EASING LATE IN
THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN STRAIT AND NRN INLAND WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE BELOW
20 KT THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A THIRD SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS.
GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SCHNEIDER/DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT AND NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 190357
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
858 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY
OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS STILL SHOWING SOME REALLY SPOTTY RAIN ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT IT SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILT OVER THE PACNW TODAY WITH A
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK SHIFTING THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE AXES OVER THE ID PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT...THEREBY INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER W WA.
THIS WILL DRY OUT THE W WA INTERIOR A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY AND BOOST
MAX TEMPS TO THE 65-70 RANGE. NAM AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING A LAYER OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 850MB-700MB MOVING N OVER PUGET SOUND FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY...SO IT MAY CUT BACK A BIT MORE ON SUNSHINE.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WAS APPROACHING 130W THIS EVENING.
A WAVE PROPAGATING UP THE FRONT IS CAUSING IT TO SLOW A BIT AND
STRENGTHEN BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ON SCHEDULE FOR ITS ARRIVAL OVER W
WA. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED REACH THE N COAST SUNDAY MORNING THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL DRAG ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. TOTAL PRECIP ON THE COAST WILL BE 1.00-1.80
INCHES WITH 0.20-0.50 OVER THE INTERIOR. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN ENOUGH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY
S-SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE PARTS OF THE N INTERIOR
PRONE TO STRONGER S-SE WINDS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE AIR MASS OFFSHORE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SO SHOWERS LOOK GOOD MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS NOW SHOW A SKINNY WEAKENING FRONT REACHING THE COAST ON
TUESDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...MODELS BRING
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS BEFORE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING ANOTHER
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY WITH...CRUCIALLY...LULLS IN
THE RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE EURO PATTERN IS MORE OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
TURN MORE SHOWERY FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A DRY SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE QPF GRIDS ARE BASICALLY THE
WRF-GFS-EXTENDED WHICH HAS SOME LULLS BUT ALSO HAS A PARTICULARLY
WET PERIOD OVER THE OLYMPICS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF 4-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
OLYMPICS DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY STEADY OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 AND LOWS NEAR 50. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 PM...THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING.
THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AN INCH PLUS TO THE OLYMPICS...AND THE
NEXT ONE WILL BRING PERHAPS ANOTHER 2 INCHES. THESE WILL SERVE TO
PRIME THE PUMP...SO TO SPEAK. PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS WILL BECOME WET
AND NEARLY EMPTY RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL RISE TO WET
SEASON LEVELS.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
OUTLIER EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN SOME MORE RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA SHOULD RISE SIGNIFICANTLY...PERHAPS TO FLOOD
STAGE. MODELS DO CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR PAC NW
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. A
TROUGH WILL BRING A FRONT ONTO THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLY IN THE EVENING. STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT.
AIR MASS STABLE WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
THE COAST...SW INTERIOR...AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA CAN EXPECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR OR IFR STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 7K FT TONIGHT. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT PATCHY MVFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE TERMINAL.
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF GIVE THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. ELY WIND 4-8
KT BECOMING SLY TO 10 KT AFTER MIDDAY SUNDAY. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH THROUGH THE INTERIOR WATERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GALES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE W ENTRANCE
TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EASING LATE IN
THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN STRAIT AND NRN INLAND WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE BELOW
20 KT THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A THIRD SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS.
GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SCHNEIDER/DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT AND NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 190357
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
858 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY
OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS STILL SHOWING SOME REALLY SPOTTY RAIN ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT IT SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILT OVER THE PACNW TODAY WITH A
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK SHIFTING THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE AXES OVER THE ID PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT...THEREBY INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER W WA.
THIS WILL DRY OUT THE W WA INTERIOR A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY AND BOOST
MAX TEMPS TO THE 65-70 RANGE. NAM AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING A LAYER OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 850MB-700MB MOVING N OVER PUGET SOUND FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY...SO IT MAY CUT BACK A BIT MORE ON SUNSHINE.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WAS APPROACHING 130W THIS EVENING.
A WAVE PROPAGATING UP THE FRONT IS CAUSING IT TO SLOW A BIT AND
STRENGTHEN BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ON SCHEDULE FOR ITS ARRIVAL OVER W
WA. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED REACH THE N COAST SUNDAY MORNING THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL DRAG ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. TOTAL PRECIP ON THE COAST WILL BE 1.00-1.80
INCHES WITH 0.20-0.50 OVER THE INTERIOR. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN ENOUGH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY
S-SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE PARTS OF THE N INTERIOR
PRONE TO STRONGER S-SE WINDS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE AIR MASS OFFSHORE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SO SHOWERS LOOK GOOD MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS NOW SHOW A SKINNY WEAKENING FRONT REACHING THE COAST ON
TUESDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...MODELS BRING
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS BEFORE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING ANOTHER
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY WITH...CRUCIALLY...LULLS IN
THE RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE EURO PATTERN IS MORE OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
TURN MORE SHOWERY FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A DRY SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE QPF GRIDS ARE BASICALLY THE
WRF-GFS-EXTENDED WHICH HAS SOME LULLS BUT ALSO HAS A PARTICULARLY
WET PERIOD OVER THE OLYMPICS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF 4-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
OLYMPICS DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY STEADY OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 AND LOWS NEAR 50. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 PM...THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING.
THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AN INCH PLUS TO THE OLYMPICS...AND THE
NEXT ONE WILL BRING PERHAPS ANOTHER 2 INCHES. THESE WILL SERVE TO
PRIME THE PUMP...SO TO SPEAK. PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS WILL BECOME WET
AND NEARLY EMPTY RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL RISE TO WET
SEASON LEVELS.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
OUTLIER EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN SOME MORE RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA SHOULD RISE SIGNIFICANTLY...PERHAPS TO FLOOD
STAGE. MODELS DO CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR PAC NW
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. A
TROUGH WILL BRING A FRONT ONTO THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLY IN THE EVENING. STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT.
AIR MASS STABLE WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
THE COAST...SW INTERIOR...AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA CAN EXPECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR OR IFR STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 7K FT TONIGHT. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT PATCHY MVFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE TERMINAL.
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF GIVE THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. ELY WIND 4-8
KT BECOMING SLY TO 10 KT AFTER MIDDAY SUNDAY. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH THROUGH THE INTERIOR WATERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GALES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE W ENTRANCE
TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EASING LATE IN
THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN STRAIT AND NRN INLAND WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE BELOW
20 KT THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A THIRD SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS.
GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SCHNEIDER/DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT AND NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 182158
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY
OVER THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE ARE STILL SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SOME NEAR THE OLYMPICS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SUN BREAKS. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS
EVENING OVER SOME AREAS. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHING THE NORTH
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH AND PERHAPS SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR BEFORE THEN. HAVE CUT BACK THE MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY TO PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE
65-70 OVER THE INTERIOR BUT LOWER ON THE NORTH COAST.

RAIN IS LIKELY ON THE NORTH COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD
INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR
EVERYWHERE WILL GET SOME RAIN ON MONDAY AND POPS ARE CATEGORICAL.
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL ON TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...MODELS BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS BEFORE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY
WITH...CRUCIALLY...LULLS IN THE RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE EURO
PATTERN IS MORE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS TURN MORE SHOWERY FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A
DRY SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE QPF
GRIDS ARE BASICALLY THE WRF-GFS-EXTENDED WHICH HAS SOME LULLS BUT
ALSO HAS A PARTICULARLY WET PERIOD OVER THE OLYMPICS FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF 4-5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE OLYMPICS DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
REMARKABLY STEADY OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 AND
LOWS NEAR 50. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AN
INCH PLUS TO THE OLYMPICS...AND THE NEXT ONE WILL BRING PERHAPS
ANOTHER 2 INCHES. THESE WILL SERVE TO PRIME THE PUMP...SO TO SPEAK.
PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS WILL BECOME WET AND NEARLY EMPTY RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL RISE TO WET SEASON LEVELS.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
OUTLIER EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN SOME MORE RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA SHOULD RISE SIGNIFICANTLY...PERHAPS TO FLOOD
STAGE. MODELS DO CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.
AIR MASS STABLE WITH MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

KSEA...EXPECT MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH
SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS IF
THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING. THE THREAT OF THIS DOES NOT SEEM HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAF FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS 3 TO 6 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY TONIGHT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF VIGOROUS FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN A BIT AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS LATER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A THIRD SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
TO MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT AND NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 182158
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY
OVER THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE ARE STILL SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SOME NEAR THE OLYMPICS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SUN BREAKS. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS
EVENING OVER SOME AREAS. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHING THE NORTH
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH AND PERHAPS SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR BEFORE THEN. HAVE CUT BACK THE MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY TO PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE
65-70 OVER THE INTERIOR BUT LOWER ON THE NORTH COAST.

RAIN IS LIKELY ON THE NORTH COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD
INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR
EVERYWHERE WILL GET SOME RAIN ON MONDAY AND POPS ARE CATEGORICAL.
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL ON TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...MODELS BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS BEFORE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY
WITH...CRUCIALLY...LULLS IN THE RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE EURO
PATTERN IS MORE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS TURN MORE SHOWERY FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A
DRY SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE QPF
GRIDS ARE BASICALLY THE WRF-GFS-EXTENDED WHICH HAS SOME LULLS BUT
ALSO HAS A PARTICULARLY WET PERIOD OVER THE OLYMPICS FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF 4-5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE OLYMPICS DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
REMARKABLY STEADY OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 AND
LOWS NEAR 50. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AN
INCH PLUS TO THE OLYMPICS...AND THE NEXT ONE WILL BRING PERHAPS
ANOTHER 2 INCHES. THESE WILL SERVE TO PRIME THE PUMP...SO TO SPEAK.
PREVIOUSLY DRY AREAS WILL BECOME WET AND NEARLY EMPTY RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL RISE TO WET SEASON LEVELS.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
OUTLIER EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN SOME MORE RIVERS ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA SHOULD RISE SIGNIFICANTLY...PERHAPS TO FLOOD
STAGE. MODELS DO CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.
AIR MASS STABLE WITH MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

KSEA...EXPECT MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH
SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS IF
THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING. THE THREAT OF THIS DOES NOT SEEM HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAF FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS 3 TO 6 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY TONIGHT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF VIGOROUS FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN A BIT AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS LATER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A THIRD SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
TO MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT AND NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 181601
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING BUT SUN BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. THE RIDGE WILL
GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY OVER THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND
TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS SEEM ISOLATED NOW THOUGH THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIG HOLE IN
THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ENTRANCE AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. SUN
BREAKS SEEM PRETTY LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE OVER
THE INTERIOR. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SUN WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN JUST TOUCHES THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THEN
SPREADS INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE RAINY IN THE MORNING AND
SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE
CONSOLIDATED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC TO STEER STRONGER SYSTEMS
INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A
RELATIVE BREAK IN STEADY RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY BUT ONLY A CHANCE INLAND. A STRONGER
TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A 150+ KT JET WILL DIRECT MOISTURE UNDER SWLY
FLOW INTO THE PAC NW  BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF
RUNS STILL DEPICT MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEWER MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE MOISTURE STREAM AND LIMIT
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODELS YESTERDAY WHERE
SHOWING A MORE PERSISTENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. THIS PATTERN
STILL WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW NEAR HAWAII MAY
BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR W WITH A TROUGH OUT ALONG 140 W BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CUT
OFF THE MOISTURE FEED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. SHOWERS ARE STILL
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST BUT HEAVIER RAIN...IF IT OCCURS...SHOULD
ABATE. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD
NOT BE ENOUGH TO FLOOD AREA RIVERS INCLUDING THE SKOKOMISH. A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW RISES ON AREA RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS SHOW EMBEDDED WAVES TO CAUSE SOME SHIFTING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL DISPERSE RAIN OVER A LARGER AREA
AND IF UNFOLDS AS THE 00Z GFS SHOWS...SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
FLOODING IF ANY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WHERE
STRONG SWLY FLOW CAN EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS EVENT IS FAR
ENOUGH OUT IN TIME SO THAT A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. SOME RELIEF IN RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
AS THE FLOW LIFTS NWD WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
INTERIOR.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY...THEN INCREASING EASTERLY GRADIENTS TONIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE...WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...AND THEN TO MOST OF THE INLAND WATERS TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ALL
OTHER WATERS. A SECOND FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 181601
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING BUT SUN BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. THE RIDGE WILL
GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY OVER THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND
TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS SEEM ISOLATED NOW THOUGH THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIG HOLE IN
THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ENTRANCE AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. SUN
BREAKS SEEM PRETTY LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE OVER
THE INTERIOR. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SUN WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN JUST TOUCHES THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THEN
SPREADS INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE RAINY IN THE MORNING AND
SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE
CONSOLIDATED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC TO STEER STRONGER SYSTEMS
INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A
RELATIVE BREAK IN STEADY RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY BUT ONLY A CHANCE INLAND. A STRONGER
TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A 150+ KT JET WILL DIRECT MOISTURE UNDER SWLY
FLOW INTO THE PAC NW  BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF
RUNS STILL DEPICT MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEWER MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE MOISTURE STREAM AND LIMIT
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODELS YESTERDAY WHERE
SHOWING A MORE PERSISTENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. THIS PATTERN
STILL WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW NEAR HAWAII MAY
BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR W WITH A TROUGH OUT ALONG 140 W BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CUT
OFF THE MOISTURE FEED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. SHOWERS ARE STILL
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST BUT HEAVIER RAIN...IF IT OCCURS...SHOULD
ABATE. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD
NOT BE ENOUGH TO FLOOD AREA RIVERS INCLUDING THE SKOKOMISH. A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW RISES ON AREA RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS SHOW EMBEDDED WAVES TO CAUSE SOME SHIFTING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL DISPERSE RAIN OVER A LARGER AREA
AND IF UNFOLDS AS THE 00Z GFS SHOWS...SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
FLOODING IF ANY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WHERE
STRONG SWLY FLOW CAN EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS EVENT IS FAR
ENOUGH OUT IN TIME SO THAT A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. SOME RELIEF IN RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
AS THE FLOW LIFTS NWD WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
INTERIOR.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY...THEN INCREASING EASTERLY GRADIENTS TONIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE...WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...AND THEN TO MOST OF THE INLAND WATERS TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ALL
OTHER WATERS. A SECOND FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 181601
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING BUT SUN BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. THE RIDGE WILL
GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY OVER THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND
TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS SEEM ISOLATED NOW THOUGH THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIG HOLE IN
THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ENTRANCE AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. SUN
BREAKS SEEM PRETTY LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE OVER
THE INTERIOR. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SUN WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN JUST TOUCHES THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THEN
SPREADS INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE RAINY IN THE MORNING AND
SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE
CONSOLIDATED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC TO STEER STRONGER SYSTEMS
INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A
RELATIVE BREAK IN STEADY RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY BUT ONLY A CHANCE INLAND. A STRONGER
TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A 150+ KT JET WILL DIRECT MOISTURE UNDER SWLY
FLOW INTO THE PAC NW  BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF
RUNS STILL DEPICT MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEWER MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE MOISTURE STREAM AND LIMIT
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODELS YESTERDAY WHERE
SHOWING A MORE PERSISTENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. THIS PATTERN
STILL WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW NEAR HAWAII MAY
BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR W WITH A TROUGH OUT ALONG 140 W BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CUT
OFF THE MOISTURE FEED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. SHOWERS ARE STILL
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST BUT HEAVIER RAIN...IF IT OCCURS...SHOULD
ABATE. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD
NOT BE ENOUGH TO FLOOD AREA RIVERS INCLUDING THE SKOKOMISH. A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW RISES ON AREA RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS SHOW EMBEDDED WAVES TO CAUSE SOME SHIFTING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL DISPERSE RAIN OVER A LARGER AREA
AND IF UNFOLDS AS THE 00Z GFS SHOWS...SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
FLOODING IF ANY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WHERE
STRONG SWLY FLOW CAN EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS EVENT IS FAR
ENOUGH OUT IN TIME SO THAT A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. SOME RELIEF IN RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
AS THE FLOW LIFTS NWD WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
INTERIOR.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY...THEN INCREASING EASTERLY GRADIENTS TONIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE...WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...AND THEN TO MOST OF THE INLAND WATERS TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ALL
OTHER WATERS. A SECOND FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 181601
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING BUT SUN BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. THE RIDGE WILL
GIVE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY OVER THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND
TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS SEEM ISOLATED NOW THOUGH THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIG HOLE IN
THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ENTRANCE AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. SUN
BREAKS SEEM PRETTY LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE OVER
THE INTERIOR. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SUN WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN JUST TOUCHES THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THEN
SPREADS INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE RAINY IN THE MORNING AND
SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE
CONSOLIDATED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC TO STEER STRONGER SYSTEMS
INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A
RELATIVE BREAK IN STEADY RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY BUT ONLY A CHANCE INLAND. A STRONGER
TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A 150+ KT JET WILL DIRECT MOISTURE UNDER SWLY
FLOW INTO THE PAC NW  BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF
RUNS STILL DEPICT MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEWER MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE MOISTURE STREAM AND LIMIT
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODELS YESTERDAY WHERE
SHOWING A MORE PERSISTENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. THIS PATTERN
STILL WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW NEAR HAWAII MAY
BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR W WITH A TROUGH OUT ALONG 140 W BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CUT
OFF THE MOISTURE FEED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. SHOWERS ARE STILL
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST BUT HEAVIER RAIN...IF IT OCCURS...SHOULD
ABATE. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD
NOT BE ENOUGH TO FLOOD AREA RIVERS INCLUDING THE SKOKOMISH. A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW RISES ON AREA RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS SHOW EMBEDDED WAVES TO CAUSE SOME SHIFTING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL DISPERSE RAIN OVER A LARGER AREA
AND IF UNFOLDS AS THE 00Z GFS SHOWS...SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
FLOODING IF ANY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WHERE
STRONG SWLY FLOW CAN EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS EVENT IS FAR
ENOUGH OUT IN TIME SO THAT A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. SOME RELIEF IN RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
AS THE FLOW LIFTS NWD WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
INTERIOR.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY...THEN INCREASING EASTERLY GRADIENTS TONIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE...WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...AND THEN TO MOST OF THE INLAND WATERS TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ALL
OTHER WATERS. A SECOND FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 181054
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE INTERIOR
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR PAC NW TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES 130 W
OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO LINGER
OVER WRN WA TODAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. NAM-12
TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW WEAK LIFT BELOW 850 MB WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS...THOUGH SUPPORT WEAKENS LATER IN THE DAY. LATEST RADAR LOOP
AND OBS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WRN WA EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR DECREASING SHOWERS. SUNBREAKS ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP GIVE TEMPERATURES
A BOOST INTO THE MID 60S AROUND THE PUGET SOUND REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FURTHER EWD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY..BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RAIN WILL
BE SLOW TO PUSH IN GIVEN THE N/S ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM. 500 MB
HEIGHTS PEAK NEAR 5700 M BEFORE FALLING LATER IN THE DAY. SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY NEAR 70 AROUND PUGET
SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST
LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BECOME ELONGATED WITH THE FRONT
SPLITTING AS IT PUSHES INTO WRN WA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ENCOUNTERING. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR
MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF LIFT WITH THE
NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN WA. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS NOT
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT TO RIVER BASINS.

.LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE ERN PAC TO STEER STRONGER SYSTEMS INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RELATIVE BREAK IN
STEADY RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY BUT ONLY A CHANCE INLAND. A STRONGER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY
A 150+ KT JET WILL DIRECT MOISTURE UNDER SWLY FLOW INTO THE PAC NW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS STILL DEPICT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEWER MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH
WOULD SHIFT THE MOISTURE STREAM AND LIMIT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODELS YESTERDAY WHERE SHOWING A MORE PERSISTENT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. THIS PATTERN STILL WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW NEAR HAWAII MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
FLOW.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR W WITH A TROUGH OUT ALONG 140 W BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CUT
OFF THE MOISTURE FEED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. SHOWERS ARE STILL
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST BUT HEAVIER RAIN...IF IT OCCURS...SHOULD
ABATE. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO FLOOD
AREA RIVERS INCLUDING THE SKOKOMISH. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW RISES ON AREA RIVERS TO RECEDE.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS SHOW EMBEDDED WAVES TO CAUSE SOME SHIFTING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL DISPERSE RAIN OVER A LARGER AREA
AND IF UNFOLDS AS THE 00Z GFS SHOWS...SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
FLOODING IF ANY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WHERE
STRONG SWLY FLOW CAN EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS EVENT IS FAR
ENOUGH OUT IN TIME SO THAT A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. SOME RELIEF IN RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
AS THE FLOW LIFTS NWD WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
INTERIOR.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY MVFR. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES IN. 33

KSEA...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CIGS. SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH S/SE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUN AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EAST TOWARD WA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GALES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS SHOULD PEAK
BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INLAND EARLY MON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT MON EVENING AND MAY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IN THE INTERIOR WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON TUE. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 181054
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE INTERIOR
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR PAC NW TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES 130 W
OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO LINGER
OVER WRN WA TODAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. NAM-12
TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW WEAK LIFT BELOW 850 MB WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS...THOUGH SUPPORT WEAKENS LATER IN THE DAY. LATEST RADAR LOOP
AND OBS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WRN WA EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR DECREASING SHOWERS. SUNBREAKS ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP GIVE TEMPERATURES
A BOOST INTO THE MID 60S AROUND THE PUGET SOUND REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FURTHER EWD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY..BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RAIN WILL
BE SLOW TO PUSH IN GIVEN THE N/S ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM. 500 MB
HEIGHTS PEAK NEAR 5700 M BEFORE FALLING LATER IN THE DAY. SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY NEAR 70 AROUND PUGET
SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST
LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BECOME ELONGATED WITH THE FRONT
SPLITTING AS IT PUSHES INTO WRN WA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ENCOUNTERING. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR
MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF LIFT WITH THE
NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN WA. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS NOT
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT TO RIVER BASINS.

.LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE ERN PAC TO STEER STRONGER SYSTEMS INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RELATIVE BREAK IN
STEADY RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY BUT ONLY A CHANCE INLAND. A STRONGER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY
A 150+ KT JET WILL DIRECT MOISTURE UNDER SWLY FLOW INTO THE PAC NW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS STILL DEPICT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEWER MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH
WOULD SHIFT THE MOISTURE STREAM AND LIMIT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODELS YESTERDAY WHERE SHOWING A MORE PERSISTENT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. THIS PATTERN STILL WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW NEAR HAWAII MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
FLOW.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR W WITH A TROUGH OUT ALONG 140 W BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CUT
OFF THE MOISTURE FEED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. SHOWERS ARE STILL
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST BUT HEAVIER RAIN...IF IT OCCURS...SHOULD
ABATE. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO FLOOD
AREA RIVERS INCLUDING THE SKOKOMISH. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW RISES ON AREA RIVERS TO RECEDE.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS SHOW EMBEDDED WAVES TO CAUSE SOME SHIFTING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL DISPERSE RAIN OVER A LARGER AREA
AND IF UNFOLDS AS THE 00Z GFS SHOWS...SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
FLOODING IF ANY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WHERE
STRONG SWLY FLOW CAN EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS EVENT IS FAR
ENOUGH OUT IN TIME SO THAT A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. SOME RELIEF IN RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
AS THE FLOW LIFTS NWD WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
INTERIOR.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY MVFR. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES IN. 33

KSEA...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CIGS. SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH S/SE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUN AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EAST TOWARD WA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GALES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS SHOULD PEAK
BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INLAND EARLY MON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT MON EVENING AND MAY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IN THE INTERIOR WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON TUE. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 181054
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE INTERIOR
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR PAC NW TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES 130 W
OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO LINGER
OVER WRN WA TODAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. NAM-12
TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW WEAK LIFT BELOW 850 MB WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS...THOUGH SUPPORT WEAKENS LATER IN THE DAY. LATEST RADAR LOOP
AND OBS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WRN WA EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR DECREASING SHOWERS. SUNBREAKS ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP GIVE TEMPERATURES
A BOOST INTO THE MID 60S AROUND THE PUGET SOUND REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FURTHER EWD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY..BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RAIN WILL
BE SLOW TO PUSH IN GIVEN THE N/S ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM. 500 MB
HEIGHTS PEAK NEAR 5700 M BEFORE FALLING LATER IN THE DAY. SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY NEAR 70 AROUND PUGET
SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST
LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BECOME ELONGATED WITH THE FRONT
SPLITTING AS IT PUSHES INTO WRN WA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ENCOUNTERING. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR
MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF LIFT WITH THE
NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN WA. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS NOT
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT TO RIVER BASINS.

.LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE ERN PAC TO STEER STRONGER SYSTEMS INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RELATIVE BREAK IN
STEADY RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY BUT ONLY A CHANCE INLAND. A STRONGER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY
A 150+ KT JET WILL DIRECT MOISTURE UNDER SWLY FLOW INTO THE PAC NW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS STILL DEPICT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEWER MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH
WOULD SHIFT THE MOISTURE STREAM AND LIMIT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODELS YESTERDAY WHERE SHOWING A MORE PERSISTENT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. THIS PATTERN STILL WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW NEAR HAWAII MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
FLOW.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR W WITH A TROUGH OUT ALONG 140 W BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CUT
OFF THE MOISTURE FEED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. SHOWERS ARE STILL
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST BUT HEAVIER RAIN...IF IT OCCURS...SHOULD
ABATE. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO FLOOD
AREA RIVERS INCLUDING THE SKOKOMISH. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW RISES ON AREA RIVERS TO RECEDE.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS SHOW EMBEDDED WAVES TO CAUSE SOME SHIFTING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL DISPERSE RAIN OVER A LARGER AREA
AND IF UNFOLDS AS THE 00Z GFS SHOWS...SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
FLOODING IF ANY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WHERE
STRONG SWLY FLOW CAN EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS EVENT IS FAR
ENOUGH OUT IN TIME SO THAT A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. SOME RELIEF IN RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
AS THE FLOW LIFTS NWD WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
INTERIOR.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY MVFR. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES IN. 33

KSEA...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CIGS. SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH S/SE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUN AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EAST TOWARD WA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GALES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS SHOULD PEAK
BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INLAND EARLY MON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT MON EVENING AND MAY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IN THE INTERIOR WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON TUE. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 181054
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE INTERIOR
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR PAC NW TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES 130 W
OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO LINGER
OVER WRN WA TODAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. NAM-12
TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW WEAK LIFT BELOW 850 MB WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS...THOUGH SUPPORT WEAKENS LATER IN THE DAY. LATEST RADAR LOOP
AND OBS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WRN WA EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR DECREASING SHOWERS. SUNBREAKS ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP GIVE TEMPERATURES
A BOOST INTO THE MID 60S AROUND THE PUGET SOUND REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FURTHER EWD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY..BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RAIN WILL
BE SLOW TO PUSH IN GIVEN THE N/S ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM. 500 MB
HEIGHTS PEAK NEAR 5700 M BEFORE FALLING LATER IN THE DAY. SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY NEAR 70 AROUND PUGET
SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST
LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BECOME ELONGATED WITH THE FRONT
SPLITTING AS IT PUSHES INTO WRN WA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ENCOUNTERING. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR
MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF LIFT WITH THE
NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN WA. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS NOT
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT TO RIVER BASINS.

.LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE ERN PAC TO STEER STRONGER SYSTEMS INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RELATIVE BREAK IN
STEADY RAINFALL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY BUT ONLY A CHANCE INLAND. A STRONGER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY
A 150+ KT JET WILL DIRECT MOISTURE UNDER SWLY FLOW INTO THE PAC NW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS STILL DEPICT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEWER MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH
WOULD SHIFT THE MOISTURE STREAM AND LIMIT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODELS YESTERDAY WHERE SHOWING A MORE PERSISTENT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. THIS PATTERN STILL WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW NEAR HAWAII MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
FLOW.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR W WITH A TROUGH OUT ALONG 140 W BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CUT
OFF THE MOISTURE FEED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. SHOWERS ARE STILL
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST BUT HEAVIER RAIN...IF IT OCCURS...SHOULD
ABATE. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO FLOOD
AREA RIVERS INCLUDING THE SKOKOMISH. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW RISES ON AREA RIVERS TO RECEDE.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS SHOW EMBEDDED WAVES TO CAUSE SOME SHIFTING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL DISPERSE RAIN OVER A LARGER AREA
AND IF UNFOLDS AS THE 00Z GFS SHOWS...SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
FLOODING IF ANY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WHERE
STRONG SWLY FLOW CAN EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS EVENT IS FAR
ENOUGH OUT IN TIME SO THAT A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. SOME RELIEF IN RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
AS THE FLOW LIFTS NWD WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
INTERIOR.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY MVFR. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES IN. 33

KSEA...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CIGS. SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH S/SE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUN AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EAST TOWARD WA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GALES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS SHOULD PEAK
BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INLAND EARLY MON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT MON EVENING AND MAY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IN THE INTERIOR WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON TUE. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 180354
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
854 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CASCADES WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WHILE
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON DIMINISH. LEFTOVER
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AT 03Z/8 PM SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT HAS REACHED
THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS JUST OFFSHORE AND WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWS WHAT IS PROBABLY THE FINAL BAND OF ORGANIZED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AT 03Z/8 PM WHICH WILL PROBABLY HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES PUGET SOUND LATER THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN
THE FRONT OVER THE CASCADES AND THE SHOWER BAND THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK KEEPING A RESIDUAL MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
OVER W WA ON SATURDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILD
OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING...AND MAYBE SOME PEEK-A-BOO SUN BREAKS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. AT LEAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE SHIFT OVER THE ID PANHANDLE BY
12Z/5 AM SUNDAY...WHICH ALLOWS LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE CLEARING SO THE INTERIOR WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT TO
THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING...WITH THE FASTER NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRINGING
RAIN PARTWAY INLAND FROM THE COAST BY 00Z/5 PM SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST FAVORS THIS FASTER SOLUTION. THE SLOWER GFS HAS RAIN JUST
REACHING THE N COAST AT THAT TIME. THIS IS ALREADY A SKINNY WEAK
FRONT OFFSHORE ALONG 140W THIS EVENING AND IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL GET MUCH STRONGER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REGARDLESS...RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 PM AFD...MODELS BRING
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE WET AND WINDY PERIODS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FRIDAY. THE EURO HAS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SOLUTION WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE LIKE THE GFS...PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW HAVE A
LOT OF LIKELY POPS IN THE EXTENDED. THERE COULD BE SOME WINDY
PERIODS AS WELL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...330 PM DISCUSSION...NEITHER THE SYSTEM TODAY NOR THE
ONE MONDAY HAVE ANYWHERE NEAR ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE CONCERN ON AREA
RIVERS.

THE EURO SOLUTION WITH ITS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PROBABLY HAS ENOUGH RAIN TO FLOOD RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD CAUSE
RISES BUT NOT FLOODING. HURRICANES IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...THERE ARE
SEVERAL...GENERALLY WREAK HAVOC WITH LONG RANGE MODELS AND THERE IS
SO FAR NO REASON TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION OVER THE OTHERS. THINGS
MAY BECOME CLEARER BY NEXT WEEK. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE INTERIOR WILL
EASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING
BUT CLOUDS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER DOWN EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES IN.

KSEA...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TONIGHT...WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SW. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST THROUGH
WESTERN WA THIS EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EASING...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND ON SAT
WITH S/SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUN AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN SHIFTS INLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GALE FORCE SOUTHERLIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INLAND EARLY MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON TUE. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE...ADMIRALTY
     INLET...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 180354
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
854 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CASCADES WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WHILE
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON DIMINISH. LEFTOVER
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AT 03Z/8 PM SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT HAS REACHED
THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS JUST OFFSHORE AND WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWS WHAT IS PROBABLY THE FINAL BAND OF ORGANIZED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AT 03Z/8 PM WHICH WILL PROBABLY HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES PUGET SOUND LATER THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN
THE FRONT OVER THE CASCADES AND THE SHOWER BAND THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK KEEPING A RESIDUAL MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
OVER W WA ON SATURDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILD
OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING...AND MAYBE SOME PEEK-A-BOO SUN BREAKS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. AT LEAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE SHIFT OVER THE ID PANHANDLE BY
12Z/5 AM SUNDAY...WHICH ALLOWS LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE CLEARING SO THE INTERIOR WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT TO
THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING...WITH THE FASTER NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRINGING
RAIN PARTWAY INLAND FROM THE COAST BY 00Z/5 PM SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST FAVORS THIS FASTER SOLUTION. THE SLOWER GFS HAS RAIN JUST
REACHING THE N COAST AT THAT TIME. THIS IS ALREADY A SKINNY WEAK
FRONT OFFSHORE ALONG 140W THIS EVENING AND IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL GET MUCH STRONGER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REGARDLESS...RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 PM AFD...MODELS BRING
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE WET AND WINDY PERIODS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FRIDAY. THE EURO HAS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SOLUTION WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE LIKE THE GFS...PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW HAVE A
LOT OF LIKELY POPS IN THE EXTENDED. THERE COULD BE SOME WINDY
PERIODS AS WELL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...330 PM DISCUSSION...NEITHER THE SYSTEM TODAY NOR THE
ONE MONDAY HAVE ANYWHERE NEAR ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE CONCERN ON AREA
RIVERS.

THE EURO SOLUTION WITH ITS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PROBABLY HAS ENOUGH RAIN TO FLOOD RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD CAUSE
RISES BUT NOT FLOODING. HURRICANES IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...THERE ARE
SEVERAL...GENERALLY WREAK HAVOC WITH LONG RANGE MODELS AND THERE IS
SO FAR NO REASON TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION OVER THE OTHERS. THINGS
MAY BECOME CLEARER BY NEXT WEEK. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE INTERIOR WILL
EASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING
BUT CLOUDS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER DOWN EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES IN.

KSEA...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TONIGHT...WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SW. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST THROUGH
WESTERN WA THIS EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EASING...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND ON SAT
WITH S/SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUN AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN SHIFTS INLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GALE FORCE SOUTHERLIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INLAND EARLY MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON TUE. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE...ADMIRALTY
     INLET...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 172227
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AT TIMES WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THEN
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FRONT JUST ABOUT
TO MOVE ONTO THE COAST. RAIN HAS NOT EXACTLY BEEN STEADY TODAY BUT
EVEN SO IT SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT GOES
BY. WIND HAS BEEN STRONG OVER MARINE AREAS BUT NOT OVER LAND. HAVE
ENDED THE WIND ADVISORIES THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WIND ON
THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT PASSES.

BY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE LONG PAST AND HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING
SOMEWHAT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GIVE
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO SOME PARTS OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SUNNIER DAY IS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY OVER THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 65-70.

RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A NEARLY
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT ARRIVES. AT THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR
THAT EVERYWHERE WILL GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S. GRADIENTS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AS WITH THE PRESENT SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACES. BURKE

.LONG TERM...MODELS BRING A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE WET AND WINDY
PERIODS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
FRIDAY. THE EURO HAS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SOLUTION WITH HEAVY RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE LIKE THE GFS...PROGRESSIVE.
FOR NOW HAVE A LOT OF LIKELY POPS IN THE EXTENDED. THERE COULD BE
SOME WINDY PERIODS AS WELL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NEITHER THE SYSTEM TODAY NOR THE ONE MONDAY HAVE
ANYWHERE NEAR ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE CONCERN ON AREA RIVERS.

THE EURO SOLUTION WITH ITS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PROBABLY HAS ENOUGH RAIN TO FLOOD RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD CAUSE
RISES BUT NOT FLOODING. HURRICANES IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...THERE ARE
SEVERAL...GENERALLY WREAK HAVOC WITH LONG RANGE MODELS AND THERE IS
SO FAR NO REASON TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION OVER THE OTHERS. THINGS
MAY BECOME CLEARER BY NEXT WEEK. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS WESTERN
WA THIS EVNG. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO SWLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST AND STABLE. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AND MORE SHOWERY THIS EVNG. EASTERLY SFC FLOW IS KEEPING
INLAND CIGS THIS AFTERNOON UP IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT A WEAKENING
OF THE EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVNG WILL ALLOW CIGS TO FALL STARTING
THIS EVNG...WITH IFR CONDS PREVAILING BY SUNRISE ON SAT. INDEED...
IFR CONDS HAVE ALREADY COMMENCED ALONG THE COAST. DURING THE DAY
SAT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT...BUT THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST. WOULD EXPECT A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
A LACK OF RAIN ON SAT...BUT BKN CIGS IN MVFR RANGES WILL PERSIST AT
MANY WRN WA LOCALES ON SAT AFTN.

KSEA...DRYING EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVNG...SO CIGS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO FALL BLO 050 ARND
00Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT
GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY
BELOW 010 FROM 12Z-17Z ON SAT MORNING. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST ON SAT AFTN...SO SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT CIGS
WILL LIFT INTO THE 030-040 RANGE DURING THE AFTN.   HANER

&&

.MARINE...985 MB SFC LOW NEAR THE NORTH TIP OF HAIDA GWAII IS
LIFTING NORTH AND FILLING THIS AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
NEARLY HALFWAY BTWN 130W AND THE COAST NOW...RESULTING IN MAINLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN GALES OVER THE SOUTH-AND SOUTHEAST-WIND PRONE COASTAL
WATERS... EASTERN STRAIT AND AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. THE COLD
FRONT ALONG 130W WILL REACH THE COAST LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVE INLAND
THIS EVNG...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AND FILLING ALONG THE
WAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THIS EVNG... GRADIENTS WILL
TRANSITION FROM MODERATE EASTERLY TO WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS
WILL EASE THIS EVNG...FIRST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS EVNG...THEN
OVER THE INLAND WATERS LATER THIS EVNG.

ON SATURDAY...WEAKER SE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. ON SUNDAY...A SIMILAR
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE PAST 130W...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.     HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 172227
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AT TIMES WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THEN
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FRONT JUST ABOUT
TO MOVE ONTO THE COAST. RAIN HAS NOT EXACTLY BEEN STEADY TODAY BUT
EVEN SO IT SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT GOES
BY. WIND HAS BEEN STRONG OVER MARINE AREAS BUT NOT OVER LAND. HAVE
ENDED THE WIND ADVISORIES THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WIND ON
THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT PASSES.

BY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE LONG PAST AND HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING
SOMEWHAT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GIVE
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO SOME PARTS OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SUNNIER DAY IS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY OVER THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 65-70.

RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A NEARLY
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT ARRIVES. AT THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR
THAT EVERYWHERE WILL GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S. GRADIENTS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AS WITH THE PRESENT SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACES. BURKE

.LONG TERM...MODELS BRING A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE WET AND WINDY
PERIODS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
FRIDAY. THE EURO HAS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SOLUTION WITH HEAVY RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE LIKE THE GFS...PROGRESSIVE.
FOR NOW HAVE A LOT OF LIKELY POPS IN THE EXTENDED. THERE COULD BE
SOME WINDY PERIODS AS WELL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NEITHER THE SYSTEM TODAY NOR THE ONE MONDAY HAVE
ANYWHERE NEAR ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE CONCERN ON AREA RIVERS.

THE EURO SOLUTION WITH ITS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PROBABLY HAS ENOUGH RAIN TO FLOOD RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD CAUSE
RISES BUT NOT FLOODING. HURRICANES IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...THERE ARE
SEVERAL...GENERALLY WREAK HAVOC WITH LONG RANGE MODELS AND THERE IS
SO FAR NO REASON TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION OVER THE OTHERS. THINGS
MAY BECOME CLEARER BY NEXT WEEK. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS WESTERN
WA THIS EVNG. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO SWLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST AND STABLE. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AND MORE SHOWERY THIS EVNG. EASTERLY SFC FLOW IS KEEPING
INLAND CIGS THIS AFTERNOON UP IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT A WEAKENING
OF THE EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVNG WILL ALLOW CIGS TO FALL STARTING
THIS EVNG...WITH IFR CONDS PREVAILING BY SUNRISE ON SAT. INDEED...
IFR CONDS HAVE ALREADY COMMENCED ALONG THE COAST. DURING THE DAY
SAT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT...BUT THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST. WOULD EXPECT A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
A LACK OF RAIN ON SAT...BUT BKN CIGS IN MVFR RANGES WILL PERSIST AT
MANY WRN WA LOCALES ON SAT AFTN.

KSEA...DRYING EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVNG...SO CIGS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO FALL BLO 050 ARND
00Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT
GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY
BELOW 010 FROM 12Z-17Z ON SAT MORNING. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST ON SAT AFTN...SO SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT CIGS
WILL LIFT INTO THE 030-040 RANGE DURING THE AFTN.   HANER

&&

.MARINE...985 MB SFC LOW NEAR THE NORTH TIP OF HAIDA GWAII IS
LIFTING NORTH AND FILLING THIS AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
NEARLY HALFWAY BTWN 130W AND THE COAST NOW...RESULTING IN MAINLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN GALES OVER THE SOUTH-AND SOUTHEAST-WIND PRONE COASTAL
WATERS... EASTERN STRAIT AND AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. THE COLD
FRONT ALONG 130W WILL REACH THE COAST LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVE INLAND
THIS EVNG...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AND FILLING ALONG THE
WAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THIS EVNG... GRADIENTS WILL
TRANSITION FROM MODERATE EASTERLY TO WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS
WILL EASE THIS EVNG...FIRST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS EVNG...THEN
OVER THE INLAND WATERS LATER THIS EVNG.

ON SATURDAY...WEAKER SE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. ON SUNDAY...A SIMILAR
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE PAST 130W...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.     HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 172227
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AT TIMES WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THEN
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FRONT JUST ABOUT
TO MOVE ONTO THE COAST. RAIN HAS NOT EXACTLY BEEN STEADY TODAY BUT
EVEN SO IT SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT GOES
BY. WIND HAS BEEN STRONG OVER MARINE AREAS BUT NOT OVER LAND. HAVE
ENDED THE WIND ADVISORIES THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WIND ON
THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT PASSES.

BY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE LONG PAST AND HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING
SOMEWHAT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GIVE
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO SOME PARTS OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SUNNIER DAY IS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY OVER THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 65-70.

RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A NEARLY
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT ARRIVES. AT THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR
THAT EVERYWHERE WILL GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S. GRADIENTS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AS WITH THE PRESENT SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACES. BURKE

.LONG TERM...MODELS BRING A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE WET AND WINDY
PERIODS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
FRIDAY. THE EURO HAS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SOLUTION WITH HEAVY RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE LIKE THE GFS...PROGRESSIVE.
FOR NOW HAVE A LOT OF LIKELY POPS IN THE EXTENDED. THERE COULD BE
SOME WINDY PERIODS AS WELL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NEITHER THE SYSTEM TODAY NOR THE ONE MONDAY HAVE
ANYWHERE NEAR ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE CONCERN ON AREA RIVERS.

THE EURO SOLUTION WITH ITS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PROBABLY HAS ENOUGH RAIN TO FLOOD RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD CAUSE
RISES BUT NOT FLOODING. HURRICANES IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...THERE ARE
SEVERAL...GENERALLY WREAK HAVOC WITH LONG RANGE MODELS AND THERE IS
SO FAR NO REASON TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION OVER THE OTHERS. THINGS
MAY BECOME CLEARER BY NEXT WEEK. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS WESTERN
WA THIS EVNG. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO SWLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST AND STABLE. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AND MORE SHOWERY THIS EVNG. EASTERLY SFC FLOW IS KEEPING
INLAND CIGS THIS AFTERNOON UP IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT A WEAKENING
OF THE EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVNG WILL ALLOW CIGS TO FALL STARTING
THIS EVNG...WITH IFR CONDS PREVAILING BY SUNRISE ON SAT. INDEED...
IFR CONDS HAVE ALREADY COMMENCED ALONG THE COAST. DURING THE DAY
SAT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT...BUT THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST. WOULD EXPECT A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
A LACK OF RAIN ON SAT...BUT BKN CIGS IN MVFR RANGES WILL PERSIST AT
MANY WRN WA LOCALES ON SAT AFTN.

KSEA...DRYING EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVNG...SO CIGS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO FALL BLO 050 ARND
00Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT
GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY
BELOW 010 FROM 12Z-17Z ON SAT MORNING. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST ON SAT AFTN...SO SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT CIGS
WILL LIFT INTO THE 030-040 RANGE DURING THE AFTN.   HANER

&&

.MARINE...985 MB SFC LOW NEAR THE NORTH TIP OF HAIDA GWAII IS
LIFTING NORTH AND FILLING THIS AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
NEARLY HALFWAY BTWN 130W AND THE COAST NOW...RESULTING IN MAINLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN GALES OVER THE SOUTH-AND SOUTHEAST-WIND PRONE COASTAL
WATERS... EASTERN STRAIT AND AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. THE COLD
FRONT ALONG 130W WILL REACH THE COAST LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVE INLAND
THIS EVNG...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AND FILLING ALONG THE
WAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THIS EVNG... GRADIENTS WILL
TRANSITION FROM MODERATE EASTERLY TO WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS
WILL EASE THIS EVNG...FIRST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS EVNG...THEN
OVER THE INLAND WATERS LATER THIS EVNG.

ON SATURDAY...WEAKER SE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. ON SUNDAY...A SIMILAR
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE PAST 130W...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.     HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 172227
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AT TIMES WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THEN
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FRONT JUST ABOUT
TO MOVE ONTO THE COAST. RAIN HAS NOT EXACTLY BEEN STEADY TODAY BUT
EVEN SO IT SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT GOES
BY. WIND HAS BEEN STRONG OVER MARINE AREAS BUT NOT OVER LAND. HAVE
ENDED THE WIND ADVISORIES THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WIND ON
THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT PASSES.

BY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE LONG PAST AND HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING
SOMEWHAT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GIVE
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO SOME PARTS OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SUNNIER DAY IS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY OVER THE INTERIOR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 65-70.

RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A NEARLY
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT ARRIVES. AT THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR
THAT EVERYWHERE WILL GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S. GRADIENTS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AS WITH THE PRESENT SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACES. BURKE

.LONG TERM...MODELS BRING A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE WET AND WINDY
PERIODS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
FRIDAY. THE EURO HAS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SOLUTION WITH HEAVY RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE LIKE THE GFS...PROGRESSIVE.
FOR NOW HAVE A LOT OF LIKELY POPS IN THE EXTENDED. THERE COULD BE
SOME WINDY PERIODS AS WELL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NEITHER THE SYSTEM TODAY NOR THE ONE MONDAY HAVE
ANYWHERE NEAR ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE CONCERN ON AREA RIVERS.

THE EURO SOLUTION WITH ITS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PROBABLY HAS ENOUGH RAIN TO FLOOD RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD CAUSE
RISES BUT NOT FLOODING. HURRICANES IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...THERE ARE
SEVERAL...GENERALLY WREAK HAVOC WITH LONG RANGE MODELS AND THERE IS
SO FAR NO REASON TO FAVOR THE EURO SOLUTION OVER THE OTHERS. THINGS
MAY BECOME CLEARER BY NEXT WEEK. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS WESTERN
WA THIS EVNG. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO SWLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST AND STABLE. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AND MORE SHOWERY THIS EVNG. EASTERLY SFC FLOW IS KEEPING
INLAND CIGS THIS AFTERNOON UP IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT A WEAKENING
OF THE EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVNG WILL ALLOW CIGS TO FALL STARTING
THIS EVNG...WITH IFR CONDS PREVAILING BY SUNRISE ON SAT. INDEED...
IFR CONDS HAVE ALREADY COMMENCED ALONG THE COAST. DURING THE DAY
SAT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT...BUT THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST. WOULD EXPECT A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
A LACK OF RAIN ON SAT...BUT BKN CIGS IN MVFR RANGES WILL PERSIST AT
MANY WRN WA LOCALES ON SAT AFTN.

KSEA...DRYING EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVNG...SO CIGS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO FALL BLO 050 ARND
00Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT
GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY
BELOW 010 FROM 12Z-17Z ON SAT MORNING. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST ON SAT AFTN...SO SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT CIGS
WILL LIFT INTO THE 030-040 RANGE DURING THE AFTN.   HANER

&&

.MARINE...985 MB SFC LOW NEAR THE NORTH TIP OF HAIDA GWAII IS
LIFTING NORTH AND FILLING THIS AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
NEARLY HALFWAY BTWN 130W AND THE COAST NOW...RESULTING IN MAINLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN GALES OVER THE SOUTH-AND SOUTHEAST-WIND PRONE COASTAL
WATERS... EASTERN STRAIT AND AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. THE COLD
FRONT ALONG 130W WILL REACH THE COAST LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVE INLAND
THIS EVNG...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AND FILLING ALONG THE
WAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THIS EVNG... GRADIENTS WILL
TRANSITION FROM MODERATE EASTERLY TO WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS
WILL EASE THIS EVNG...FIRST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS EVNG...THEN
OVER THE INLAND WATERS LATER THIS EVNG.

ON SATURDAY...WEAKER SE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. ON SUNDAY...A SIMILAR
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE PAST 130W...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.     HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 171617
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
COAST INTO THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT THEN COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PARTLY
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL GIVE
PERIODS OF RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND
ZONES FOR RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
WIND NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM YET OVER LAND AREAS THOUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPERIENCING A SOLID GALE. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE COAST
AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.

MODELS SHOW ONLY A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND AREAS MOSTLY DRY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY
BUT TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALSO HAVE SOME SUN OVER THE INTERIOR BUT ANOTHER
FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT SEE A FEW SPOTS
NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR BUT THE CLOUDY AND THEN RAINY COAST WILL
NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
SHOWERY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY NIGHTS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

A BIG CHANGE TO A VERY RAINY AND WINDY PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE
SYSTEM CAUSING THE CHANGE IS CURRENTLY IN THE WEST PACIFIC OFF OF
KAMCHATKA. ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS STRONG SYSTEM ENTRAINING
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ANA NOW
APPROACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE SOURCE OF THE AIR
MASS...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WERE RAISED
SEVERAL DEGREES. POPS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND IT WILL
LIKELY BE WINDY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER HIGH...8000
FEET OR HIGHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
COAST AND ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL RESULT IN RISES ON COASTAL RIVERS. BUT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT.

GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NW WASHINGTON
(CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS) AND CENTRAL OREGON (GFS) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD WHEREVER THE PATTERN SETS UP. THE FIRE
HOSE MAY (GFS) OR MAY NOT (CANADIAN AND ECMWF) WAVE SOUTH AND NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...BUT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SOME RIVERS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE CANADIAN OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS VERIFY. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS WESTERN
WA THIS EVNG. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO SWLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST AND STABLE. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AND MORE SHOWERY THIS EVNG. EASTERLY SFC FLOW IS KEEPING
CIGS THIS MORNING UP IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST...BUT A WEAKENING
OF THE EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVNG WILL ALLOW CIGS TO FALL STARTING
THIS EVNG...WITH IFR CONDS PREVAILING BY SUNRISE ON SAT. DURING THE
DAY SAT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT...BUT THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST. WOULD EXPECT A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
A LACK OF RAIN ON SAT...BUT BKN CIGS IN MVFR RANGES WILL PERSIST AT
MANY WRN WA LOCALES ON SAT AFTN.

KSEA...RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
DRYING EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CIGS UP IN THE 050-060
RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AFTN WITH VSBYS AOA 6SM. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE SFC WIND WILL WEAKEN AFT 00Z...SO CIGS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY
TO FALL BLO 050 ARND 00Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY BELOW 010 FROM 12Z-17Z ON SAT
MORNING.    HANER

&&

.MARINE...983 MB SFC LOW NEAR THE WEST COAST OF HAIDA GWAII IS
LIFTING NORTH AND FILLING THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS TRAILING
SOUTH ALONG 130W...RESULTING IN MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. LA PUSH RECENTLY REPORTED 34
KT WIND...AND HARO STRAIT JUMPED TO 34 KT THIS PAST HOUR AS WELL.
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD INCREASING E-SE WIND UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT ALONG 130W WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE COAST THIS
AFTN AND MOVE INLAND THIS EVNG...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
FILLING ALONG THE WAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THIS EVNG...
GRADIENTS WILL TRANSITION FROM MODERATE EASTERLY TO WEAKER
SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS IN GENERAL WILL EASE THIS EVNG...AND SE
GRADIENTS DO NOT FAVOR A PUSH OF WIND INTO PUGET SOUND. COMBINED
SEAS ARE BUILDING TO OVER 15 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ON SAT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE
COASTAL WATERS SUN AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MON.
ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT AND ADMIRALTY INLET.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 171617
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
COAST INTO THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT THEN COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PARTLY
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL GIVE
PERIODS OF RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND
ZONES FOR RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
WIND NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM YET OVER LAND AREAS THOUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPERIENCING A SOLID GALE. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE COAST
AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.

MODELS SHOW ONLY A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND AREAS MOSTLY DRY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY
BUT TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALSO HAVE SOME SUN OVER THE INTERIOR BUT ANOTHER
FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT SEE A FEW SPOTS
NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR BUT THE CLOUDY AND THEN RAINY COAST WILL
NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
SHOWERY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY NIGHTS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

A BIG CHANGE TO A VERY RAINY AND WINDY PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE
SYSTEM CAUSING THE CHANGE IS CURRENTLY IN THE WEST PACIFIC OFF OF
KAMCHATKA. ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS STRONG SYSTEM ENTRAINING
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ANA NOW
APPROACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE SOURCE OF THE AIR
MASS...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WERE RAISED
SEVERAL DEGREES. POPS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND IT WILL
LIKELY BE WINDY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER HIGH...8000
FEET OR HIGHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
COAST AND ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL RESULT IN RISES ON COASTAL RIVERS. BUT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT.

GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NW WASHINGTON
(CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS) AND CENTRAL OREGON (GFS) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD WHEREVER THE PATTERN SETS UP. THE FIRE
HOSE MAY (GFS) OR MAY NOT (CANADIAN AND ECMWF) WAVE SOUTH AND NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...BUT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SOME RIVERS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE CANADIAN OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS VERIFY. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS WESTERN
WA THIS EVNG. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO SWLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST AND STABLE. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AND MORE SHOWERY THIS EVNG. EASTERLY SFC FLOW IS KEEPING
CIGS THIS MORNING UP IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST...BUT A WEAKENING
OF THE EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVNG WILL ALLOW CIGS TO FALL STARTING
THIS EVNG...WITH IFR CONDS PREVAILING BY SUNRISE ON SAT. DURING THE
DAY SAT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT...BUT THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST. WOULD EXPECT A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
A LACK OF RAIN ON SAT...BUT BKN CIGS IN MVFR RANGES WILL PERSIST AT
MANY WRN WA LOCALES ON SAT AFTN.

KSEA...RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
DRYING EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CIGS UP IN THE 050-060
RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AFTN WITH VSBYS AOA 6SM. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE SFC WIND WILL WEAKEN AFT 00Z...SO CIGS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY
TO FALL BLO 050 ARND 00Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY BELOW 010 FROM 12Z-17Z ON SAT
MORNING.    HANER

&&

.MARINE...983 MB SFC LOW NEAR THE WEST COAST OF HAIDA GWAII IS
LIFTING NORTH AND FILLING THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS TRAILING
SOUTH ALONG 130W...RESULTING IN MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. LA PUSH RECENTLY REPORTED 34
KT WIND...AND HARO STRAIT JUMPED TO 34 KT THIS PAST HOUR AS WELL.
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD INCREASING E-SE WIND UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT ALONG 130W WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE COAST THIS
AFTN AND MOVE INLAND THIS EVNG...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
FILLING ALONG THE WAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THIS EVNG...
GRADIENTS WILL TRANSITION FROM MODERATE EASTERLY TO WEAKER
SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS IN GENERAL WILL EASE THIS EVNG...AND SE
GRADIENTS DO NOT FAVOR A PUSH OF WIND INTO PUGET SOUND. COMBINED
SEAS ARE BUILDING TO OVER 15 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ON SAT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE
COASTAL WATERS SUN AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MON.
ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT AND ADMIRALTY INLET.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 171617
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
COAST INTO THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT THEN COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PARTLY
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL GIVE
PERIODS OF RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND
ZONES FOR RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
WIND NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM YET OVER LAND AREAS THOUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPERIENCING A SOLID GALE. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE COAST
AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.

MODELS SHOW ONLY A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND AREAS MOSTLY DRY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY
BUT TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALSO HAVE SOME SUN OVER THE INTERIOR BUT ANOTHER
FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT SEE A FEW SPOTS
NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR BUT THE CLOUDY AND THEN RAINY COAST WILL
NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
SHOWERY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY NIGHTS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

A BIG CHANGE TO A VERY RAINY AND WINDY PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE
SYSTEM CAUSING THE CHANGE IS CURRENTLY IN THE WEST PACIFIC OFF OF
KAMCHATKA. ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS STRONG SYSTEM ENTRAINING
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ANA NOW
APPROACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE SOURCE OF THE AIR
MASS...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WERE RAISED
SEVERAL DEGREES. POPS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND IT WILL
LIKELY BE WINDY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER HIGH...8000
FEET OR HIGHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
COAST AND ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL RESULT IN RISES ON COASTAL RIVERS. BUT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT.

GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NW WASHINGTON
(CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS) AND CENTRAL OREGON (GFS) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD WHEREVER THE PATTERN SETS UP. THE FIRE
HOSE MAY (GFS) OR MAY NOT (CANADIAN AND ECMWF) WAVE SOUTH AND NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...BUT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SOME RIVERS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE CANADIAN OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS VERIFY. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS WESTERN
WA THIS EVNG. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO SWLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST AND STABLE. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AND MORE SHOWERY THIS EVNG. EASTERLY SFC FLOW IS KEEPING
CIGS THIS MORNING UP IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST...BUT A WEAKENING
OF THE EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVNG WILL ALLOW CIGS TO FALL STARTING
THIS EVNG...WITH IFR CONDS PREVAILING BY SUNRISE ON SAT. DURING THE
DAY SAT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT...BUT THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST. WOULD EXPECT A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
A LACK OF RAIN ON SAT...BUT BKN CIGS IN MVFR RANGES WILL PERSIST AT
MANY WRN WA LOCALES ON SAT AFTN.

KSEA...RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
DRYING EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CIGS UP IN THE 050-060
RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AFTN WITH VSBYS AOA 6SM. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE SFC WIND WILL WEAKEN AFT 00Z...SO CIGS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY
TO FALL BLO 050 ARND 00Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY BELOW 010 FROM 12Z-17Z ON SAT
MORNING.    HANER

&&

.MARINE...983 MB SFC LOW NEAR THE WEST COAST OF HAIDA GWAII IS
LIFTING NORTH AND FILLING THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS TRAILING
SOUTH ALONG 130W...RESULTING IN MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. LA PUSH RECENTLY REPORTED 34
KT WIND...AND HARO STRAIT JUMPED TO 34 KT THIS PAST HOUR AS WELL.
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD INCREASING E-SE WIND UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT ALONG 130W WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE COAST THIS
AFTN AND MOVE INLAND THIS EVNG...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
FILLING ALONG THE WAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THIS EVNG...
GRADIENTS WILL TRANSITION FROM MODERATE EASTERLY TO WEAKER
SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS IN GENERAL WILL EASE THIS EVNG...AND SE
GRADIENTS DO NOT FAVOR A PUSH OF WIND INTO PUGET SOUND. COMBINED
SEAS ARE BUILDING TO OVER 15 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ON SAT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE
COASTAL WATERS SUN AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MON.
ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT AND ADMIRALTY INLET.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

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