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000
FXUS66 KSEW 212322
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
INLAND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND A
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 990MB LOW WAS NEAR THE NORTH COAST AT 3PM. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE OUGHT TO BE THROUGH THE COAST BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE FROPA AND THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE COAST. AFTER THE FRONT GETS THROUGH
THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA LATER THIS EVENING AREAS OF RAIN WILL TURN TO
SHOWERS. THE WINDY WEATHER IN THE NORTH INTERIOR WILL SETTLE DOWN
PRETTY QUICKLY TOO...AND THE ADVISORY ENDS AT 7PM. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES SAT AND SAT NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT SGFNT SYSTEM WILL HAVE AROUND A 995 MB LOW
THAT TRACKS TO THE B.C. COAST NORTH OF VRISL WHILE FILLING AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES THROUGH WRN WA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH TUE AND TUE NITE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. A RIDGE
AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES INLAND TO ABOUT
IDAHO BY LATE WED AS A FRONT REACHES THE PACNW WED NITE AND THU
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN PUNCH OF THE FRONT STAYING NORTH OF WRN WA.
A SPLITTY SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THU AND FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SOON REACH THE COAST...THEN PASS THE
I-5 CORRIDOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS FROM NOW. STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MODERATE WESTERLY THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ARE LEADING TO RAIN WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AN ISSUE IN THE VEERED
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT LLWS WILL LESSEN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVNG...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...WITH THIS WEATHER REGIME
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST HEAVILY FOCUSED
OVER THE MTNS AND IN A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE.

KSEA...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST LIKELY AROUND 02Z-03Z (6-7 PM).
UNTIL THEN...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES COMING DOWN. WINDS ALOFT AT 4500 FEET MSL WILL PEAK
ARND 50-55 KT AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
NOT BE MENTIONED IN TAF...BUT A STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC
WIND AND SOUTH WINDS AT 4500 FEET MSL AROUND 45-55 KT MEANS A LOT OF
SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...SFC WINDS
BECOME S-SW. HEAVIER STRATIFORM RAIN WILL END...TURNING TO
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. NEAREST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHICH WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN EVERETT AND
DOWNTOWN SEATTLE THIS EVNG...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
HANER

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM...
THEN CROSS THE INLAND WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHIFT FROM S-SE WINDS TO SW-W WINDS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH GALE WARNINGS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE EAST ENTRANCE...
ADMIRALTY INLET...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE
STRAIT...THOUGH A BRIEF GALE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE MODELS. THIS
COULD GIVE GALES ON THE COAST AND DOWN THE STRAIT. SWELLS IN THE
15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY.    HANER

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
     INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA TIL 7 PM.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CASCADES ABOVE 3500 FEET TONIGHT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...ADMIRALTY
INLET...AND       NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 212322
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
INLAND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND A
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 990MB LOW WAS NEAR THE NORTH COAST AT 3PM. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE OUGHT TO BE THROUGH THE COAST BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE FROPA AND THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE COAST. AFTER THE FRONT GETS THROUGH
THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA LATER THIS EVENING AREAS OF RAIN WILL TURN TO
SHOWERS. THE WINDY WEATHER IN THE NORTH INTERIOR WILL SETTLE DOWN
PRETTY QUICKLY TOO...AND THE ADVISORY ENDS AT 7PM. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES SAT AND SAT NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT SGFNT SYSTEM WILL HAVE AROUND A 995 MB LOW
THAT TRACKS TO THE B.C. COAST NORTH OF VRISL WHILE FILLING AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES THROUGH WRN WA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH TUE AND TUE NITE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. A RIDGE
AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES INLAND TO ABOUT
IDAHO BY LATE WED AS A FRONT REACHES THE PACNW WED NITE AND THU
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN PUNCH OF THE FRONT STAYING NORTH OF WRN WA.
A SPLITTY SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THU AND FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SOON REACH THE COAST...THEN PASS THE
I-5 CORRIDOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS FROM NOW. STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MODERATE WESTERLY THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ARE LEADING TO RAIN WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AN ISSUE IN THE VEERED
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT LLWS WILL LESSEN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVNG...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...WITH THIS WEATHER REGIME
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST HEAVILY FOCUSED
OVER THE MTNS AND IN A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE.

KSEA...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST LIKELY AROUND 02Z-03Z (6-7 PM).
UNTIL THEN...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES COMING DOWN. WINDS ALOFT AT 4500 FEET MSL WILL PEAK
ARND 50-55 KT AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
NOT BE MENTIONED IN TAF...BUT A STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC
WIND AND SOUTH WINDS AT 4500 FEET MSL AROUND 45-55 KT MEANS A LOT OF
SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...SFC WINDS
BECOME S-SW. HEAVIER STRATIFORM RAIN WILL END...TURNING TO
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. NEAREST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHICH WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN EVERETT AND
DOWNTOWN SEATTLE THIS EVNG...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
HANER

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM...
THEN CROSS THE INLAND WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHIFT FROM S-SE WINDS TO SW-W WINDS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH GALE WARNINGS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE EAST ENTRANCE...
ADMIRALTY INLET...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE
STRAIT...THOUGH A BRIEF GALE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE MODELS. THIS
COULD GIVE GALES ON THE COAST AND DOWN THE STRAIT. SWELLS IN THE
15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY.    HANER

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
     INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA TIL 7 PM.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CASCADES ABOVE 3500 FEET TONIGHT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...ADMIRALTY
INLET...AND       NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 211730
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND
WEDNESDAY AND A FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY. THE UW 4KM WRFGFS WIND FORECAST SHOWS THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
ON A LINE FROM THE CLM-AST AROUND 4PM. A PSCZ WIND PATTERN SETS UP
THIS EVENING AND PERSISTS ALL NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
SHOWERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT
THE SYSTEM LOOKS WEAKER AND IS MOVING THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE THAT
STARTS TO BUILD ALONG 130W LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS SHOWS WHILE
THE RIDGE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WARM FRONT SLIPS INTO
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THE 12Z GFS SHOWS THAT WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS RISING. THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
500MB HEIGHTS REACH THE 570S OVER WRN WA AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST TUE AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND TUE NITE AND
WED AND THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED NITE. SOME
PRECIP PERSISTS IN THE GFS ON THU...AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SPLITS
OUT OF THE WESTERLIES AND MOVES MAINLY TOWARD CALIF AND OREGON
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 4 PM
TODAY...THEN PASS THE I-5 CORRIDOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS LATER. STRONG
S-SW FLOW ALOFT TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MODERATE
WESTERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ARE LEADING TO RAIN WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG THE COAST...AND THE HEAVIER
RAIN IS SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA NOW. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOST NOTABLY IN
PLACES WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTN. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVNG...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

KSEA...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST LIKELY AROUND 02Z-03Z (6-7 PM).
UNTIL THEN...RAIN WILL GENERALLY PICK UP WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES COMING DOWN. WINDS ALOFT AT 4500 FEET MSL WILL PEAK
ARND 50-55 KT AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
NOT BE MENTIONED IN TAF BUT WILL BECOME A GREATER CONSIDERATION IF
SFC WINDS TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN.
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...SFC WINDS BECOME S-SW. HEAVIER
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL END...TURNING TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. CLOSEST
SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED IN A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WILL
LINGER BETWEEN EVERETT AND DOWNTOWN SEATTLE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
HANER

&&

.MARINE...SE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 4
PM...THEN CROSS THE INLAND WATERS ABOUT 3-4 HOURS LATER. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHIFT FROM S-SE WINDS TO SW-W
WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH GALE
WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE EAST
ENTRANCE...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE
STRAIT...THOUGH A BRIEF GALE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE MODELS. THIS
COULD GIVE GALES ON THE COAST AND DOWN THE STRAIT. SWELLS IN THE
15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY.    HANER

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
     NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500
     FEET FROM 10 AM UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...ADMIRALTY INLET...
     AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 211313 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
512 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

CORRECTED THE LONG TERM SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
AREA AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. ALAS...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR
MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIP WAS STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD THAT WAS STILL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE VIGOROUS
PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS A DECENT
MOISTURE FEED OR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SATELLITE DERIVED
PERCENT OF NORMAL TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED THAT
THERE WERE AMOUNTS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON THE COAST AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE TOTAL LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 1 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 4
AM PST SATURDAY. THE CASCADES ABOVE THE 3500 FOOT LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 10 TO 16 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE CASCADES...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ALSO...A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/ IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH
COUNTY LINE. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY RISE LATER TODAY OR
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PLUMMETING TO NEAR 3000 FEET EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE PSCZ WILL
FORM BECAUSE THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT SNOQUALMIE PASS
COULD RECEIVE LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /6 OR 7
INCHES/ ON SATURDAY.

OTHER THAN THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
MORE WIND PRONE AREAS...NAMELY THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING BUT
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL SERVE
TO KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...COAST...AND
WITHIN THE PSCZ.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING BETWEEN
SYSTEMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY COUNT ON IT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING ONE...WITH STEADY
PRECIP REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A
FAST ONE...THUS EXPECT THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE CWA LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500 FEET CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANOTHER
9 TO 15 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS. EITHER THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE REGION ON WED OR AN UPPER RIDGE. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH INTACT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH PART. RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
SPREAD INLAND AROUND 15Z. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 00Z
AND PUGET SOUND AROUND 04Z. AT THE SURFACE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR 4K-6K FT. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
2K-3K FT IN RAIN 12Z-15Z AND STAY THERE ALL DAY. CEILINGS WILL NOT
IMPROVE MUCH TONIGHT IN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW AND A SHOWERY PATTERN.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS SOUTHEAST 5-9 KT. RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO SOUTHERLY
8-12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
GALE WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EAST ENTRANCE
AND NORTH INLAND WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...THEN AROUND
04Z OVER PUGET SOUND. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT...THOUGH A BRIEF
GALE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE MODELS. THIS
COULD GIVE GALES ON THE COAST AND DOWN THE STRAIT. SWELLS IN THE
15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
     NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500
     FEET FROM 10 AM UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.

PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
     WATERS...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
     THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     SATURDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 211313 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
512 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

CORRECTED THE LONG TERM SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
AREA AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. ALAS...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR
MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIP WAS STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD THAT WAS STILL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE VIGOROUS
PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS A DECENT
MOISTURE FEED OR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SATELLITE DERIVED
PERCENT OF NORMAL TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED THAT
THERE WERE AMOUNTS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON THE COAST AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE TOTAL LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 1 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 4
AM PST SATURDAY. THE CASCADES ABOVE THE 3500 FOOT LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 10 TO 16 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE CASCADES...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ALSO...A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/ IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH
COUNTY LINE. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY RISE LATER TODAY OR
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PLUMMETING TO NEAR 3000 FEET EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE PSCZ WILL
FORM BECAUSE THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT SNOQUALMIE PASS
COULD RECEIVE LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /6 OR 7
INCHES/ ON SATURDAY.

OTHER THAN THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
MORE WIND PRONE AREAS...NAMELY THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING BUT
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL SERVE
TO KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...COAST...AND
WITHIN THE PSCZ.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING BETWEEN
SYSTEMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY COUNT ON IT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING ONE...WITH STEADY
PRECIP REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A
FAST ONE...THUS EXPECT THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE CWA LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500 FEET CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANOTHER
9 TO 15 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS. EITHER THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE REGION ON WED OR AN UPPER RIDGE. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH INTACT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH PART. RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
SPREAD INLAND AROUND 15Z. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 00Z
AND PUGET SOUND AROUND 04Z. AT THE SURFACE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR 4K-6K FT. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
2K-3K FT IN RAIN 12Z-15Z AND STAY THERE ALL DAY. CEILINGS WILL NOT
IMPROVE MUCH TONIGHT IN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW AND A SHOWERY PATTERN.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS SOUTHEAST 5-9 KT. RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO SOUTHERLY
8-12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
GALE WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EAST ENTRANCE
AND NORTH INLAND WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...THEN AROUND
04Z OVER PUGET SOUND. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT...THOUGH A BRIEF
GALE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE MODELS. THIS
COULD GIVE GALES ON THE COAST AND DOWN THE STRAIT. SWELLS IN THE
15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
     NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500
     FEET FROM 10 AM UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.

PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
     WATERS...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
     THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     SATURDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 211312
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
512 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

CORRECTED THE LONG TERM SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
AREA AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. ALAS...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR
MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIP WAS STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD THAT WAS STILL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE VIGOROUS
PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS A DECENT
MOISTURE FEED OR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SATELLITE DERIVED
PERCENT OF NORMAL TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED THAT
THERE WERE AMOUNTS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON THE COAST AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE TOTAL LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 1 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 4
AM PST SATURDAY. THE CASCADES ABOVE THE 3500 FOOT LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 10 TO 16 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE CASCADES...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ALSO...A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/ IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH
COUNTY LINE. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY RISE LATER TODAY OR
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PLUMMETING TO NEAR 3000 FEET EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE PSCZ WILL
FORM BECAUSE THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT SNOQUALMIE PASS
COULD RECEIVE LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /6 OR 7
INCHES/ ON SATURDAY.

OTHER THAN THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
MORE WIND PRONE AREAS...NAMELY THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING BUT
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL SERVE
TO KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...COAST...AND
WITHIN THE PSCZ.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING BETWEEN
SYSTEMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY COUNT ON IT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING ONE...WITH STEADY
PRECIP REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A
FAST ONE...THUS EXPECT THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE CWA LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500 FEET CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANOTHER
9 TO 15 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS. EITHER THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE REGION ON WED OR AN UPPER RIDGE. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH INTACT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH PART. RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
SPREAD INLAND AROUND 15Z. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 00Z
AND PUGET SOUND AROUND 04Z. AT THE SURFACE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR 4K-6K FT. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
2K-3K FT IN RAIN 12Z-15Z AND STAY THERE ALL DAY. CEILINGS WILL NOT
IMPROVE MUCH TONIGHT IN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW AND A SHOWERY PATTERN.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS SOUTHEAST 5-9 KT. RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO SOUTHERLY
8-12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
GALE WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EAST ENTRANCE
AND NORTH INLAND WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...THEN AROUND
04Z OVER PUGET SOUND. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT...THOUGH A BRIEF
GALE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE MODELS. THIS
COULD GIVE GALES ON THE COAST AND DOWN THE STRAIT. SWELLS IN THE
15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
     NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500
     FEET FROM 10 AM UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.

PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
     WATERS...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
     THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     SATURDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 211312
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
512 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

CORRECTED THE LONG TERM SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
AREA AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. ALAS...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR
MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIP WAS STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD THAT WAS STILL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE VIGOROUS
PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS A DECENT
MOISTURE FEED OR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SATELLITE DERIVED
PERCENT OF NORMAL TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED THAT
THERE WERE AMOUNTS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON THE COAST AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE TOTAL LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 1 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 4
AM PST SATURDAY. THE CASCADES ABOVE THE 3500 FOOT LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 10 TO 16 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE CASCADES...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ALSO...A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/ IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH
COUNTY LINE. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY RISE LATER TODAY OR
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PLUMMETING TO NEAR 3000 FEET EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE PSCZ WILL
FORM BECAUSE THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT SNOQUALMIE PASS
COULD RECEIVE LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /6 OR 7
INCHES/ ON SATURDAY.

OTHER THAN THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
MORE WIND PRONE AREAS...NAMELY THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING BUT
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL SERVE
TO KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...COAST...AND
WITHIN THE PSCZ.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING BETWEEN
SYSTEMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY COUNT ON IT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING ONE...WITH STEADY
PRECIP REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A
FAST ONE...THUS EXPECT THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE CWA LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500 FEET CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANOTHER
9 TO 15 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS. EITHER THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE REGION ON WED OR AN UPPER RIDGE. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH INTACT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH PART. RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
SPREAD INLAND AROUND 15Z. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 00Z
AND PUGET SOUND AROUND 04Z. AT THE SURFACE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR 4K-6K FT. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
2K-3K FT IN RAIN 12Z-15Z AND STAY THERE ALL DAY. CEILINGS WILL NOT
IMPROVE MUCH TONIGHT IN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW AND A SHOWERY PATTERN.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS SOUTHEAST 5-9 KT. RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO SOUTHERLY
8-12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
GALE WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EAST ENTRANCE
AND NORTH INLAND WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...THEN AROUND
04Z OVER PUGET SOUND. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT...THOUGH A BRIEF
GALE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE MODELS. THIS
COULD GIVE GALES ON THE COAST AND DOWN THE STRAIT. SWELLS IN THE
15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
     NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500
     FEET FROM 10 AM UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.

PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
     WATERS...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
     THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     SATURDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 211156
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
356 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
AREA AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. ALAS...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR
MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIP WAS STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD THAT WAS STILL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE VIGOROUS
PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS A DECENT
MOISTURE FEED OR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SATELLITE DERIVED
PERCENT OF NORMAL TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED THAT
THERE WERE AMOUNTS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON THE COAST AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE TOTAL LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 1 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 4
AM PST SATURDAY. THE CASCADES ABOVE THE 3500 FOOT LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 10 TO 16 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE CASCADES...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ALSO...A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/ IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH
COUNTY LINE. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY RISE LATER TODAY OR
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PLUMMETING TO NEAR 3000 FEET EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE PSCZ WILL
FORM BECAUSE THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT SNOQUALMIE PASS
COULD RECEIVE LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /6 OR 7
INCHES/ ON SATURDAY.

OTHER THAN THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
MORE WIND PRONE AREAS...NAMELY THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING BUT
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL SERVE
TO KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...COAST...AND
WITHIN THE PSCZ.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING BETWEEN
SYSTEMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY COUNT ON IT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING ONE...WITH STEADY
PRECIP REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A
FAST ONE...THUS EXPECT THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE CWA LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500 FEET CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANOTHER
9 TO 15 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS. EITHER THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE REGION OR AN UPPER RIDGE. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH INTACT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH PART. RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
SPREAD INLAND AROUND 15Z. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 00Z
AND PUGET SOUND AROUND 04Z. AT THE SURFACE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR 4K-6K FT. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
2K-3K FT IN RAIN 12Z-15Z AND STAY THERE ALL DAY. CEILINGS WILL NOT
IMPROVE MUCH TONIGHT IN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW AND A SHOWERY PATTERN.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS SOUTHEAST 5-9 KT. RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO SOUTHERLY
8-12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
GALE WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EAST ENTRANCE
AND NORTH INLAND WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...THEN AROUND
04Z OVER PUGET SOUND. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT...THOUGH A BRIEF
GALE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE MODELS. THIS
COULD GIVE GALES ON THE COAST AND DOWN THE STRAIT. SWELLS IN THE
15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
     NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500
     FEET FROM 10 AM UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.

PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
     WATERS...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
     THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     SATURDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 211156
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
356 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
AREA AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. ALAS...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR
MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIP WAS STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD THAT WAS STILL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE VIGOROUS
PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS A DECENT
MOISTURE FEED OR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SATELLITE DERIVED
PERCENT OF NORMAL TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED THAT
THERE WERE AMOUNTS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON THE COAST AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE TOTAL LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 1 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 4
AM PST SATURDAY. THE CASCADES ABOVE THE 3500 FOOT LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 10 TO 16 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE CASCADES...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ALSO...A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/ IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH
COUNTY LINE. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY RISE LATER TODAY OR
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PLUMMETING TO NEAR 3000 FEET EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE PSCZ WILL
FORM BECAUSE THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT SNOQUALMIE PASS
COULD RECEIVE LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /6 OR 7
INCHES/ ON SATURDAY.

OTHER THAN THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
MORE WIND PRONE AREAS...NAMELY THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING BUT
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL SERVE
TO KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...COAST...AND
WITHIN THE PSCZ.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING BETWEEN
SYSTEMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY COUNT ON IT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING ONE...WITH STEADY
PRECIP REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A
FAST ONE...THUS EXPECT THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE CWA LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500 FEET CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANOTHER
9 TO 15 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS. EITHER THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE REGION OR AN UPPER RIDGE. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH INTACT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH PART. RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
SPREAD INLAND AROUND 15Z. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 00Z
AND PUGET SOUND AROUND 04Z. AT THE SURFACE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR 4K-6K FT. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
2K-3K FT IN RAIN 12Z-15Z AND STAY THERE ALL DAY. CEILINGS WILL NOT
IMPROVE MUCH TONIGHT IN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW AND A SHOWERY PATTERN.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS SOUTHEAST 5-9 KT. RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO SOUTHERLY
8-12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
GALE WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EAST ENTRANCE
AND NORTH INLAND WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...THEN AROUND
04Z OVER PUGET SOUND. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT...THOUGH A BRIEF
GALE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE MODELS. THIS
COULD GIVE GALES ON THE COAST AND DOWN THE STRAIT. SWELLS IN THE
15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
     NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500
     FEET FROM 10 AM UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.

PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
     WATERS...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
     THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     SATURDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 210451 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

CORRECTION TO WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH
DECENT SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES FROM STEVENS PASS NORTHWARD. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTH CASCADES. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS IT MOVE INLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...SAN JUANS AND WESTERN
WHATCOM. RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST FRI MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE COAST MAY SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH 0.5 TO
1 INCH IN THE INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 4000 FT WITH
SNOW EXPECTED AT STEVENS PASS AND WASHINGTON PASS...WITH UP TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SNOQUALMIE PASS SHOULD
SEE RAIN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES
FROM KING COUNTY NORTH OVER 4000 FT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER DOWN LATE
FRI NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
ON SUNDAY. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE PACIFIC NW
VIA THE JET STREAM...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS THE MOISTURE HITTING SW BC
FOR THE MOST PART AND US STAYING DRY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS A
WETTER SOLUTION FOR US WITH THE MOISTURE HITTING US DIRECTLY.
THEREFORE MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST. THURSDAY LOOKS
DRY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ON BOTH MODELS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL WITH MUCH CERTAINTY. JSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH PART. RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL SPREAD INLAND AROUND 15Z. FROPA ON THE COAST
SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...AND OVER PUGET SOUND AROUND 04Z. AT THE
SURFACE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.

CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE GENERALLY VFR 4K-6K FT. LOCAL FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES 1/2SM ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR 2K-3K FT IN RAIN.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES EXCEPT FOG IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT.
WINDS SOUTHEAST 4-8 KT. RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO SOUTHERLY 8-12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTH INLAND WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST
OF THE WATERS. FROPA ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...THEN
AROUND 04Z OVER PUGET SOUND. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT AND OVER
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAKER SURFACE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH OF THESE TROUGHS IS
LOW...BUT THEY COULD PRODUCE SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND PERHAPS
SPOTTY GALES. SWELLS IN THE 15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE COAST SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CASCADES FROM KING TO WHATCOM COUNTIES.
     WIND ADVISORY NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST...THE SAN JUAN
     ISLANDS...AND WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...NORTH INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 210449
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH
DECENT SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES FROM STEVENS PASS NORTHWARD. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTH CASCADES. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS IT MOVE INLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...SAN JUANS AND WESTERN
WHATCOM. RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST FRI MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE COAST MAY SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH 0.5 TO
1 INCH IN THE INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 4000 FT WITH
SNOW EXPECTED AT STEVENS PASS AND WASHINGTON PASS...WITH UP TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SNOQUALMIE PASS SHOULD
SEE RAIN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES
FROM KING COUNTY NORTH OVER 4000 FT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER DOWN LATE
FRI NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
ON SUNDAY. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE PACIFIC NW
VIA THE JET STREAM...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS THE MOISTURE HITTING SW BC
FOR THE MOST PART AND US STAYING DRY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS A
WETTER SOLUTION FOR US WITH THE MOISTURE HITTING US DIRECTLY.
THEREFORE MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST. THURSDAY LOOKS
DRY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ON BOTH MODELS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL WITH MUCH CERTAINTY. JSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH PART. RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL SPREAD INLAND AROUND 15Z. FROPA ON THE COAST
SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...AND OVER PUGET SOUND AROUND 04Z. AT THE
SURFACE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.

CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE GENERALLY VFR 4K-6K FT. LOCAL FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES 1/2SM ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR 2K-3K FT IN RAIN.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES EXCEPT FOG IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT.
WINDS SOUTHEAST 4-8 KT. RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO SOUTHERLY 8-12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTH INLAND WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST
OF THE WATERS. FROPA ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...THEN
AROUND 04Z OVER PUGET SOUND. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT AND OVER
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAKER SURFACE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH OF THESE TROUGHS IS
LOW...BUT THEY COULD PRODUCE SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND PERHAPS
SPOTTY GALES. SWELLS IN THE 15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE COAST SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL CASCADES.
     WIND ADVISORY NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST...THE SAN JUAN
     ISLANDS...AND WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...NORTH INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 210449
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH
DECENT SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES FROM STEVENS PASS NORTHWARD. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTH CASCADES. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS IT MOVE INLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...SAN JUANS AND WESTERN
WHATCOM. RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST FRI MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE COAST MAY SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH 0.5 TO
1 INCH IN THE INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 4000 FT WITH
SNOW EXPECTED AT STEVENS PASS AND WASHINGTON PASS...WITH UP TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SNOQUALMIE PASS SHOULD
SEE RAIN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES
FROM KING COUNTY NORTH OVER 4000 FT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER DOWN LATE
FRI NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
ON SUNDAY. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE PACIFIC NW
VIA THE JET STREAM...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS THE MOISTURE HITTING SW BC
FOR THE MOST PART AND US STAYING DRY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS A
WETTER SOLUTION FOR US WITH THE MOISTURE HITTING US DIRECTLY.
THEREFORE MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST. THURSDAY LOOKS
DRY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ON BOTH MODELS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL WITH MUCH CERTAINTY. JSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH PART. RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL SPREAD INLAND AROUND 15Z. FROPA ON THE COAST
SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...AND OVER PUGET SOUND AROUND 04Z. AT THE
SURFACE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.

CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE GENERALLY VFR 4K-6K FT. LOCAL FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES 1/2SM ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR 2K-3K FT IN RAIN.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES EXCEPT FOG IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT.
WINDS SOUTHEAST 4-8 KT. RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO SOUTHERLY 8-12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTH INLAND WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST
OF THE WATERS. FROPA ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...THEN
AROUND 04Z OVER PUGET SOUND. A WESTERLY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT AND OVER
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAKER SURFACE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH OF THESE TROUGHS IS
LOW...BUT THEY COULD PRODUCE SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND PERHAPS
SPOTTY GALES. SWELLS IN THE 15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE COAST SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL CASCADES.
     WIND ADVISORY NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST...THE SAN JUAN
     ISLANDS...AND WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...NORTH INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 210027
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
425 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. A PACIFIC
STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH DECENT SNOWFALL IN THE
CASCADES FROM STEVENS PASS NORTHWARD. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
FORECAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING...IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO I HAVE ADDED SHOWERS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A RELATIVELY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
STEMMING FROM A DEEP LOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE EARLY
EVENING AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS THE SAN JUANS AND WESTERN
WHATCOM COUNTY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND
THEN THE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CASCADES
OF KING COUNTY NORTHWARDS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET...AS THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AND SNOW LEVELS
IN THE NORTH CASCADES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL KEEP COOLER AIR FROM EASTERN WASHINGTON
FLOWING THROUGH THE PASSES AT LOWER LEVELS...LOWERING THE SNOW LEVEL
TO GROUND LEVEL AT STEVENS. NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION AT
STEVENS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. HOWEVER...SINCE THE MOUNT BAKER SKI AREA IS FURTHER WEST AND
IS NOT IMPACTED AS MUCH BY AIR FLOWING OVER FROM EASTERN
WASHINGTON...IT MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON FRIDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY AS THE SNOW LEVELS DROP A BIT.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY...MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE AREA...SO I HAVE KEPT A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP TO BELOW 3000 FEET
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON...SO CONTINUING SNOW AT STEVENS AND MOUNT
BAKER...AS WELL AS SNOWFALL AT WHITE PASS...HURRICANE RIDGE...AND MT
RAINIER...IS LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA AND BRING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW 3000
FEET SO A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. JSMITH

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE PACIFIC NW VIA THE JET
STREAM...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS THE MOISTURE HITTING SW BC FOR THE MOST
PART AND US STAYING DRY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS A WETTER SOLUTION
FOR US WITH THE MOISTURE HITTING US DIRECTLY. THEREFORE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN ON BOTH MODELS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WITH MUCH
CERTAINTY. JSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E OF THE AREA AND A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE AIR MASS IS ALREADY MOIST AND STABLE FROM
THE TROUGH...WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY BKN-OVC030-060.
RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL SPREAD INLAND AROUND 15Z. FROPA
ON THE COAST SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z...AND OVER PUGET SOUND AROUND 04Z.
GUSTY S-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR ON FRIDAY. CIGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z.

KSEA...THE MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE
BKN-OVC025-040 RANGE THROUGH 08Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN S 5-10 KT. RAIN
AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ON FRIDAY. KAM

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NE PACIFIC WAS ALONG 135W
AT 22Z/2 PM. IT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTH INLAND WATERS MAINLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINING WATERS. FROPA ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE
AROUND 00Z...THEN AROUND 04Z OVER PUGET SOUND. A WESTERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE SCA WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT AND
OVER THE N INLAND WATERS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAKER SURFACE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH OF THESE TROUGHS IS
LOW...BUT THEY COULD PRODUCE SOLID SCA WINDS AND PERHAPS SPOTTY
GALES. SWELLS IN THE 15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
COAST SUNDAY. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL CASCADES.
     WIND ADVISORY NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST...THE SAN JUAN
     ISLANDS...AND WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...NORTH INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 201716
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TONIGHT. A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE INLAND
TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH...RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SHOWERS
LINGERING MORE TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. RIGHT NOW
THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS SHOWS TONIGHT MAINLY DRY...BUT MAY
BUMP UP THE POPS AFTER REEVALUATING LATER TODAY.

A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON FRI FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS...COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS FOR
LATE FRI MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTERNOON.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL
RECEIVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR AMOUNTS
IN THE 6 TO 11 INCH RANGE FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MOUNT BAKER SKI AREA COULD RECEIVE ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT. EXPECT THE
UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD DEVELOP IN ITS
FAVORED LOCATION...NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTY BORDER...IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. JSMITH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THUS POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL. MONDAY AND BEYOND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE PACIFIC NW VIA THE JET
STREAM...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS THE MOISTURE HITTING BC AND US STAYING
DRY WITH A RIDGE PATTERN...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS A WETTER SOLUTION
FOR US WITH THE MOISTURE HITTING US DIRECTLY. THEREFORE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. JSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER W WA TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CIGS BKN030-060 THROUGH TODAY...WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS
BKN015-030 MAINLY AROUND WEAK SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z/5 PM. THE
AIR MASS IS MAINLY STABLE.

INCREASING W FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...ALONG 140W AT 1630Z/830 AM...ACROSS W WA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE N
INTERIOR ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

KSEA...MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH CIGS BKN040-060. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
CIGS BKN020-030 IF A ROGUE SHOWER CROSSES THE AREA. VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S-SE 4-8 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. KAM

&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE LOW FROM LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE B.C. COAST TODAY...MAINTAINING S FLOW ACROSS WA WATERS.
WINDS ARE ALREADY BELOW SCA LEVELS AND THE EXISTING SCA WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NE PACIFIC ALONG 140W AT 1630Z/830
AM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT THE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
USUAL SE EXPOSED AREAS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS STARTING LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAKER SURFACE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA.
SWELLS IN THE 15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST
SUNDAY. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT AND PUGET
     SOUND THIS MORNING.
     GALE WARNING COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
     GALE WATCH EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 201144
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
344 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TONIGHT. A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS
TIME AND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SUNRISE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED IN THE PASSES. THE PRECIP WILL MOST
LIKELY FALL AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...DEPENDING ON THE
ELEVATION. NOT MUCH PRECIP WAS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT PER
DOPPLER RADAR DATA. THUS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

WESTERN WA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
AND NORTH CASCADES.

A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON FRI FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS /COAST AND
NORTH INTERIOR/. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS FOR LATE FRI MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTERNOON.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL RECEIVE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR AMOUNTS IN THE 6 TO
11 INCH RANGE FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOUNT BAKER
COULD RECEIVE ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT. EXPECT THE
UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
ITS FAVORED LOCATION...NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTY BORDER...IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY...THUS POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON MON. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...LATER SHIFTS COULD REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST
ALTOGETHER. BEYOND MON...THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED...
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED WERE NOT
HIGH. LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST INTACT FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT NOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE SOUTHEAST GRADIENTS WILL EASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4K FT WITH A FEW IFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LIKELY.

KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SOUTHEAST 6-10 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS GOING OVER MOST WATERS THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS BRING A STRONGER FRONT INLAND FRIDAY. SOLID GALES ARE LIKELY
OVER THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE WARNING IS NOW
POSTED. MODELS SHOW SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EAST ENTRANCE AND
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND THERE IS NOW A GALE WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA. POST FRONTAL
WINDS ON SATURDAY COULD HAVE SOME PUNCH BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WINDS
UNDER GALE FORCE. SWELLS IN THE 15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR ALL
     WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE
     PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH BAR TIL 6 AM FRIDAY
     FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     COASTAL WATERS.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
     THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 201144
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
344 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TONIGHT. A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS
TIME AND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SUNRISE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED IN THE PASSES. THE PRECIP WILL MOST
LIKELY FALL AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...DEPENDING ON THE
ELEVATION. NOT MUCH PRECIP WAS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT PER
DOPPLER RADAR DATA. THUS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

WESTERN WA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
AND NORTH CASCADES.

A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON FRI FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS /COAST AND
NORTH INTERIOR/. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS FOR LATE FRI MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTERNOON.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL RECEIVE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR AMOUNTS IN THE 6 TO
11 INCH RANGE FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOUNT BAKER
COULD RECEIVE ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT. EXPECT THE
UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
ITS FAVORED LOCATION...NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTY BORDER...IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY...THUS POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON MON. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...LATER SHIFTS COULD REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST
ALTOGETHER. BEYOND MON...THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED...
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED WERE NOT
HIGH. LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST INTACT FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT NOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE SOUTHEAST GRADIENTS WILL EASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4K FT WITH A FEW IFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
LIKELY.

KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SOUTHEAST 6-10 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS GOING OVER MOST WATERS THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS BRING A STRONGER FRONT INLAND FRIDAY. SOLID GALES ARE LIKELY
OVER THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE WARNING IS NOW
POSTED. MODELS SHOW SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EAST ENTRANCE AND
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND THERE IS NOW A GALE WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA. POST FRONTAL
WINDS ON SATURDAY COULD HAVE SOME PUNCH BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WINDS
UNDER GALE FORCE. SWELLS IN THE 15-20 FOOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR ALL
     WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE
     PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH BAR TIL 6 AM FRIDAY
     FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     COASTAL WATERS.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
     THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 200501
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
RAIN...WIND...AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL ARRIVE EVERY DAY OR TWO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WA
TONIGHT BRINGING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS NOW
REACHING KHQM...BUT THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO AFFECTING THE
NORTH INTERIOR. EAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IN THE
PASSES AND MAY SEE FREEZING RAIN AT SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS PASS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH THURSDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING DOWN. A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND FOR JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONGER PAC SYSTEM WILL BRING WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WA
ON FRI. SO FAR MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
WILL BEGIN ON THE COAST FRI MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND BY
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WINDY ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
STEVENS PASS MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT MOUNT BAKER. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. MAY ALSO SEE A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOP IN
SNOHOMISH/KING COUNTIES...WITH MORE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. ON TUESDAY...MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE THAT A PLUME OF MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE JET
STREAM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWEST...AS PREDICTED BY THE ECMWF
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHERE THIS
MOISTURE WILL COME ASHORE...THE ECMWF HAS IT HITTING OREGON WHEREAS
THE GFS HAS IT IMPACTING NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWEST BC.
THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODELS DISAGREE ON ABOUT JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND...SO THE FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. JSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT OVER THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. CEILINGS BKN060-100
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOCAL IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z. WEAK POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL
KEEP CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE 2000-5000 FOOT RANGE.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE BKN080-100 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 08Z TONIGHT. RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND 08Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z.
WINDS SOUTHEAST 6-10 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST WATERS. POST FRONT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE WRF-GFS AND HIRES-ARW-W HAVE BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE DURATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER
THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS FRIDAY EVENING.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA. KAM/CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT AND PUGET
     SOUND.
     GALE WATCH COAST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 200501
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
RAIN...WIND...AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL ARRIVE EVERY DAY OR TWO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WA
TONIGHT BRINGING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS NOW
REACHING KHQM...BUT THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO AFFECTING THE
NORTH INTERIOR. EAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IN THE
PASSES AND MAY SEE FREEZING RAIN AT SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS PASS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH THURSDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING DOWN. A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND FOR JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONGER PAC SYSTEM WILL BRING WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WA
ON FRI. SO FAR MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
WILL BEGIN ON THE COAST FRI MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND BY
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WINDY ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
STEVENS PASS MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT MOUNT BAKER. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. MAY ALSO SEE A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOP IN
SNOHOMISH/KING COUNTIES...WITH MORE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. ON TUESDAY...MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE THAT A PLUME OF MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE JET
STREAM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWEST...AS PREDICTED BY THE ECMWF
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHERE THIS
MOISTURE WILL COME ASHORE...THE ECMWF HAS IT HITTING OREGON WHEREAS
THE GFS HAS IT IMPACTING NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWEST BC.
THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODELS DISAGREE ON ABOUT JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND...SO THE FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. JSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT OVER THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. CEILINGS BKN060-100
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOCAL IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z. WEAK POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL
KEEP CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE 2000-5000 FOOT RANGE.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE BKN080-100 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 08Z TONIGHT. RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND 08Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z.
WINDS SOUTHEAST 6-10 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST WATERS. POST FRONT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE WRF-GFS AND HIRES-ARW-W HAVE BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE DURATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER
THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS FRIDAY EVENING.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA. KAM/CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT AND PUGET
     SOUND.
     GALE WATCH COAST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 192341
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
RAIN...WIND...AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL ARRIVE EVERY DAY OR TWO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE PASSES DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN COLD
AIR AT LOWER LEVELS. THURSDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE A BIT UNSTABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER COLD FRONT STEMMING FROM A
DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL IMPACT THE AREA. WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ON THE COAST...AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE NORTH INTERIOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. AREAS IN THE NORTH CASCADES
ABOVE 4000 FEET COULD ALSO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON...LIKELY CONTINUING THE PRECIPITATION. JSMITH

&&

.LONG TERM...A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. ON TUESDAY...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
AGREE THAT A PLUME OF MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE JET STREAM WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHWEST...AS PREDICTED BY THE ECMWF YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHERE THIS MOISTURE WILL COME
ASHORE...THE ECMWF HAS IT HITTING OREGON WHEREAS THE GFS HAS IT
IMPACTING NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWEST BC. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODELS DISAGREE ON ABOUT JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND...SO THE FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. JSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT OVER THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MOVE
NE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SPREADING OVER SW WA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE N HALF OF W WA AFTER 06Z. CIGS BKN060-100 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LOCAL
IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z. FROPA ALONG A HQM-CLS LINE WILL BE
AROUND 08Z...THEN AT BLI AROUND 15Z. WEAK POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL KEEP CIGS
MAINLY IN THE 2000-5000 FOOT RANGE.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS ABOVE BKN080-100 WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z TONIGHT. RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE TERMINAL AFTER 05Z...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR
OVC015-025 AROUND 09Z...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM LIGHT N TO S 5-10 KT BY 02Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS W WA LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER MOST WATERS. POST FRONT SCA WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MOST WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAKER TRAILING SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD N CA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE PACNW.

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE WRF-GFS AND HIRES-ARW-W
HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE DURATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS FRIDAY EVENING.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     GALE WATCH COAST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 192341
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
RAIN...WIND...AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL ARRIVE EVERY DAY OR TWO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE PASSES DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN COLD
AIR AT LOWER LEVELS. THURSDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE A BIT UNSTABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER COLD FRONT STEMMING FROM A
DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL IMPACT THE AREA. WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ON THE COAST...AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE NORTH INTERIOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. AREAS IN THE NORTH CASCADES
ABOVE 4000 FEET COULD ALSO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON...LIKELY CONTINUING THE PRECIPITATION. JSMITH

&&

.LONG TERM...A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. ON TUESDAY...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
AGREE THAT A PLUME OF MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE JET STREAM WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHWEST...AS PREDICTED BY THE ECMWF YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHERE THIS MOISTURE WILL COME
ASHORE...THE ECMWF HAS IT HITTING OREGON WHEREAS THE GFS HAS IT
IMPACTING NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWEST BC. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODELS DISAGREE ON ABOUT JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND...SO THE FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. JSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT OVER THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MOVE
NE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SPREADING OVER SW WA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE N HALF OF W WA AFTER 06Z. CIGS BKN060-100 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LOCAL
IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z. FROPA ALONG A HQM-CLS LINE WILL BE
AROUND 08Z...THEN AT BLI AROUND 15Z. WEAK POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL KEEP CIGS
MAINLY IN THE 2000-5000 FOOT RANGE.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS ABOVE BKN080-100 WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z TONIGHT. RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE TERMINAL AFTER 05Z...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR
OVC015-025 AROUND 09Z...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM LIGHT N TO S 5-10 KT BY 02Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS W WA LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER MOST WATERS. POST FRONT SCA WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MOST WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAKER TRAILING SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD N CA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE PACNW.

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE WRF-GFS AND HIRES-ARW-W
HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE DURATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS FRIDAY EVENING.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     GALE WATCH COAST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 191728
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TONIGHT. A STRONGER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE EVERY DAY OR TWO INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER WET AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY ACCORDING TO THE
HRRR MODEL. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME RAIN AND LIKELY A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION PASSES AND SKI AREAS. WITH
LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...EASTERLY WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE PASSES AT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL CREATE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN THERE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA. RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH WIND ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR AND COAST. SNOW LEVELS ARE ALSO LOW ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT WE COULD SEE A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SNOW AT HIGHER SKI AREAS AND
PASSES IN THE NORTH CASCADES. JSMITH

&&

.LONG TERM...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EVERY DAY OR
SO...KEEPING THE WEATHER RELATIVELY WET AND UNSETTLED. FOR NOW...A
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OF THE
BUNCH. JSMITH/SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL WA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY E TODAY AS A COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE APPROACHES W WA
FROM THE SW. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUD BASES 12000 FEET
AND ABOVE HAS BEEN STREAMING N OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CIGS
WILL REMAIN 8000 FT AND ABOVE THROUGH 02Z AND THEN WILL BEGIN
GRADUALLY LOWERING DOWN TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. FROPA ON THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BE AROUND 08Z AND OVER THE
INTERIOR AROUND 12Z.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CIGS BKN120 AND ABOVE. UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE N-NE 3-8 KT THROUGH 00Z...THEN SHIFT TO SE BETWEEN 00Z-03Z.
KAM

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS W WA LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOST
WATERS. POST FRONT SCA WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAKER TRAILING SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD N CA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE PACNW.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING SOUTHERLY
GALES TO THE COAST STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FROPA ON THE COAST
LOOKS IT WILL BE AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     GALE WATCH COAST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 191728
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TONIGHT. A STRONGER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE EVERY DAY OR TWO INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER WET AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY ACCORDING TO THE
HRRR MODEL. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME RAIN AND LIKELY A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION PASSES AND SKI AREAS. WITH
LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...EASTERLY WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE PASSES AT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL CREATE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN THERE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA. RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH WIND ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR AND COAST. SNOW LEVELS ARE ALSO LOW ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT WE COULD SEE A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SNOW AT HIGHER SKI AREAS AND
PASSES IN THE NORTH CASCADES. JSMITH

&&

.LONG TERM...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EVERY DAY OR
SO...KEEPING THE WEATHER RELATIVELY WET AND UNSETTLED. FOR NOW...A
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OF THE
BUNCH. JSMITH/SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL WA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY E TODAY AS A COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE APPROACHES W WA
FROM THE SW. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUD BASES 12000 FEET
AND ABOVE HAS BEEN STREAMING N OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CIGS
WILL REMAIN 8000 FT AND ABOVE THROUGH 02Z AND THEN WILL BEGIN
GRADUALLY LOWERING DOWN TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. FROPA ON THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BE AROUND 08Z AND OVER THE
INTERIOR AROUND 12Z.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CIGS BKN120 AND ABOVE. UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE N-NE 3-8 KT THROUGH 00Z...THEN SHIFT TO SE BETWEEN 00Z-03Z.
KAM

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS W WA LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOST
WATERS. POST FRONT SCA WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAKER TRAILING SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD N CA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE PACNW.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING SOUTHERLY
GALES TO THE COAST STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FROPA ON THE COAST
LOOKS IT WILL BE AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     GALE WATCH COAST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 191100
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TONIGHT. A STRONGER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE EVERY DAY OR TWO INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER WET AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
INLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY AND NOT BE OF MUCH
CONSEQUENCE.

THE OFFSHORE WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY
WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT...STARTING AT THE COAST
AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE HIGHER PASSES AND SKI AREAS COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERLY GRADIENTS COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
FREEZING RAIN AT SNOQUALMIE PASS AND STEVENS PASSES.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND JUST A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...IT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH RAIN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MIGHT REACH THE COAST LATE.

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS SEEM LIKELY AT THE COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENEROUS BUT THE SYSTEM
IS PROGRESSIVE AND RIVER FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.LONG TERM...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EVERY DAY OR
SO...KEEPING THE WEATHER RELATIVELY WET AND UNSETTLED. FOR NOW...A
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OF THE
BUNCH. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY
TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL CHANGE FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY. AIR MASS IS BECOMING MOIST AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS WITH
SOME SPRINKLES AROUND. BY 03Z OR SO THERE WILL BE A CLOUD DECK
AROUND 5K FT AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTERWARD. SEVERAL HOURS
OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST 4-8 KT AFTER 03Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. THE ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS COULD
EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO ALL AREAS.

A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO SOUTHERLY GALES OVER THE COAST. GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE.
     GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 191100
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TONIGHT. A STRONGER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE EVERY DAY OR TWO INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER WET AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
INLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY AND NOT BE OF MUCH
CONSEQUENCE.

THE OFFSHORE WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY
WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT...STARTING AT THE COAST
AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE HIGHER PASSES AND SKI AREAS COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERLY GRADIENTS COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
FREEZING RAIN AT SNOQUALMIE PASS AND STEVENS PASSES.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND JUST A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...IT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH RAIN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MIGHT REACH THE COAST LATE.

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS SEEM LIKELY AT THE COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENEROUS BUT THE SYSTEM
IS PROGRESSIVE AND RIVER FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.LONG TERM...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EVERY DAY OR
SO...KEEPING THE WEATHER RELATIVELY WET AND UNSETTLED. FOR NOW...A
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OF THE
BUNCH. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY
TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL CHANGE FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY. AIR MASS IS BECOMING MOIST AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS WITH
SOME SPRINKLES AROUND. BY 03Z OR SO THERE WILL BE A CLOUD DECK
AROUND 5K FT AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTERWARD. SEVERAL HOURS
OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST 4-8 KT AFTER 03Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. THE ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS COULD
EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO ALL AREAS.

A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO SOUTHERLY GALES OVER THE COAST. GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE.
     GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 190457
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. BOTH WILL BRING RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN WASHINGTON. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS OVER THE PAC NW TONIGHT WITH
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S
TO 30S OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
INTO EASTERN WA ON WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN. THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE REGION WED EVENING BRINGING A LITTLE RAIN
TO THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THU FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE ON FRI FOR A WETTER PERIOD OF WEATHER. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRI EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INLAND. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH
SNOW POSSIBLE AT STEVENS PASS. 33

&&

LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF RAIN INTO THE AREA. TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
CARRIED BY THE JET STREAM HITTING THE NORTHWEST...WHEREAS THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF ALASKA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST. UNCERTAINTY ON
TUESDAY IS HIGH AND WE WILL SEE IF EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS PAN
OUT. JSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE LOWER AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE WITH UNRESTRICTED VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUD LAYERS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND
10000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO
MVFR TO IFR LEVELS.

KSEA...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THOUGH 08Z WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10000 FEET WILL
INCREASE AFTER 08Z AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONT OFFSHORE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE 6 KT OR LESS FAVORING E TO SE. CHB

&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON COMBINED WITH
LOWER PRESSURE FROM A DEVELOPING FRONT OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY... THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES OVER
THE COASTAL AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE AND ADJACENT COASTAL ZONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 190457
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. BOTH WILL BRING RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN WASHINGTON. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS OVER THE PAC NW TONIGHT WITH
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S
TO 30S OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
INTO EASTERN WA ON WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN. THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE REGION WED EVENING BRINGING A LITTLE RAIN
TO THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THU FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE ON FRI FOR A WETTER PERIOD OF WEATHER. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRI EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INLAND. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH
SNOW POSSIBLE AT STEVENS PASS. 33

&&

LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF RAIN INTO THE AREA. TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
CARRIED BY THE JET STREAM HITTING THE NORTHWEST...WHEREAS THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF ALASKA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST. UNCERTAINTY ON
TUESDAY IS HIGH AND WE WILL SEE IF EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS PAN
OUT. JSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE LOWER AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE WITH UNRESTRICTED VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUD LAYERS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND
10000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO
MVFR TO IFR LEVELS.

KSEA...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THOUGH 08Z WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10000 FEET WILL
INCREASE AFTER 08Z AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONT OFFSHORE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE 6 KT OR LESS FAVORING E TO SE. CHB

&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON COMBINED WITH
LOWER PRESSURE FROM A DEVELOPING FRONT OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY... THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES OVER
THE COASTAL AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE AND ADJACENT COASTAL ZONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






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