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000
FXUS66 KSEW 280347
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES...WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY AND WARM ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL...DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH
BRUSHING THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE SKIES
AREA CLEAR. SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...A FEW LOW CLOUD
PATCHES WILL PROBABLY FORM NEAR THE COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY
VALLEY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH 70S
COAST AND NEAR THE WATER. A DRY AND WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A MINOR INCREASE IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL PROBABLY GIVE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS WERE
IN THE DETAILS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A
WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...CHOSE TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN STREAM
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT AND THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
AND STABLE. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING LIMITED LOW CLOUDS AND
OR SHALLOW FOG TO THE NORTH COAST AND STRAIT MONDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR ALL
OTHER AREAS.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS 6 TO 12 KTS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
AROUND 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...SUPPORTING VARYING DEGREES ONSHORE FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA
LEVELS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF
MORNING FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 280347
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES...WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY AND WARM ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL...DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH
BRUSHING THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE SKIES
AREA CLEAR. SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...A FEW LOW CLOUD
PATCHES WILL PROBABLY FORM NEAR THE COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY
VALLEY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH 70S
COAST AND NEAR THE WATER. A DRY AND WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A MINOR INCREASE IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL PROBABLY GIVE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS WERE
IN THE DETAILS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A
WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...CHOSE TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN STREAM
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT AND THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
AND STABLE. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING LIMITED LOW CLOUDS AND
OR SHALLOW FOG TO THE NORTH COAST AND STRAIT MONDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR ALL
OTHER AREAS.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS 6 TO 12 KTS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
AROUND 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...SUPPORTING VARYING DEGREES ONSHORE FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA
LEVELS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF
MORNING FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 272205
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
305 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.
ALTHOUGH...STILL BELIEVE THAT ANY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA.

MEANWHILE...WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER MAINLY THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUE MORNING BUT EVEN MORE ON WED DUE TO A
TIGHTER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS WERE IN THE DETAILS. FOR EXAMPLE...
THE ECMWF CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. FOR
NOW...CHOSE TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY. (PIC10) THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TODAY. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION
WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON DRY AND
STABLE. WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW GAVE LIMITED LOW CLOUDS TO THE
NORTH COAST AND STRAIT THIS MORNING AND THEY WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR ALL OTHER
AREAS.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 11 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...SUPPORTING VARYING DEGREES ONSHORE FLOW. (PIC11) STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...LIKELY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCA WINDS POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF MORNING FOG OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND STRAIT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM AND THE
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 272205
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
305 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.
ALTHOUGH...STILL BELIEVE THAT ANY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA.

MEANWHILE...WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER MAINLY THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUE MORNING BUT EVEN MORE ON WED DUE TO A
TIGHTER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS WERE IN THE DETAILS. FOR EXAMPLE...
THE ECMWF CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. FOR
NOW...CHOSE TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY. (PIC10) THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TODAY. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION
WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON DRY AND
STABLE. WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW GAVE LIMITED LOW CLOUDS TO THE
NORTH COAST AND STRAIT THIS MORNING AND THEY WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR ALL OTHER
AREAS.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 11 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...SUPPORTING VARYING DEGREES ONSHORE FLOW. (PIC11) STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...LIKELY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCA WINDS POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF MORNING FOG OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND STRAIT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM AND THE
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 271603
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
903 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION ROTATING NORTH
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. AT THIS TIME...
STILL BELIEVE THAT ANY TSTMS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.

MEANWHILE...LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER MAINLY THE COAST. THERE MIGHT BE SOME INCREASE
IN COVERAGE TUE MORNING DUE TO A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY. WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580 DAM. SURFACE GRADIENTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE.

THE ECMWF WAS STARTING TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS DID NOT HAVE
THIS FEATURE. WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE
CASCADES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING A TOUCH. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST FURTHER INLAND ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING...5 DEGREES OR SO...FOR THE HIGHS FOR
THE INTERIOR. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TODAY. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL
ALSO HELP KEEP THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON DRY AND STABLE.
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW GAVE LIMITED LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH
COAST AND STRAIT THIS MORNING AND THEY WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR ALL OTHER AREAS.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 11 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...SUPPORTING VARYING DEGREES ONSHORE FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCA WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF MORNING FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
STRAIT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM AND THE
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 271603
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
903 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION ROTATING NORTH
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. AT THIS TIME...
STILL BELIEVE THAT ANY TSTMS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.

MEANWHILE...LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER MAINLY THE COAST. THERE MIGHT BE SOME INCREASE
IN COVERAGE TUE MORNING DUE TO A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY. WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580 DAM. SURFACE GRADIENTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE.

THE ECMWF WAS STARTING TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS DID NOT HAVE
THIS FEATURE. WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE
CASCADES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING A TOUCH. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST FURTHER INLAND ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING...5 DEGREES OR SO...FOR THE HIGHS FOR
THE INTERIOR. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TODAY. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL
ALSO HELP KEEP THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON DRY AND STABLE.
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW GAVE LIMITED LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH
COAST AND STRAIT THIS MORNING AND THEY WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR ALL OTHER AREAS.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 11 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...SUPPORTING VARYING DEGREES ONSHORE FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCA WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF MORNING FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
STRAIT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM AND THE
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 271603
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
903 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION ROTATING NORTH
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. AT THIS TIME...
STILL BELIEVE THAT ANY TSTMS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.

MEANWHILE...LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER MAINLY THE COAST. THERE MIGHT BE SOME INCREASE
IN COVERAGE TUE MORNING DUE TO A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY. WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580 DAM. SURFACE GRADIENTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE.

THE ECMWF WAS STARTING TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS DID NOT HAVE
THIS FEATURE. WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE
CASCADES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING A TOUCH. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST FURTHER INLAND ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING...5 DEGREES OR SO...FOR THE HIGHS FOR
THE INTERIOR. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TODAY. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL
ALSO HELP KEEP THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON DRY AND STABLE.
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW GAVE LIMITED LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH
COAST AND STRAIT THIS MORNING AND THEY WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR ALL OTHER AREAS.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 11 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...SUPPORTING VARYING DEGREES ONSHORE FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCA WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF MORNING FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
STRAIT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM AND THE
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 271028
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOWE CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST AND MOVING DOWN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AT 10Z/3 AM. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH WELL OFFSHORE. BY 00Z MON/5
PM SUN 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE MID 580 DMS. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY RISE TODAY FROM PLUS 12-14C THIS
MORNING TO PLUS 15 TO 18C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXPECT ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF WARMING FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL KICK UP WITH THE WEAK
ONSHORE GRADIENTS KEEPING THE COAST AND AREAS ALONG THE STRAIT
TEMPERATURES NEAR SATURDAYS READINGS. IN GENERAL UPPER 70S AND 80S
WILL COMMON OVER THE INTERIOR WITH LOWER TO MID 70S COAST AND
STRAIT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
DO WARM A TOUCH...850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM PLUS 16 TO 19C LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE. WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF HEATING IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY PUSHING THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR
INTO THE LOWER 90S. FOR THE MOST PART 80S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE
INTERIOR WITH LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN FOR THE COAST AND STRAIT.

VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING WITH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE MID 580 DMS AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SIMILAR TO MONDAY TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE FLATTER BUT STILL WEAKLY ONSHORE. PERSISTENCE
IS A GOOD FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN PUSHING 90 DEGREES.

WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE GRADIENTS EACH DAY PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY WITH WESTERN WASHINGTON
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580 DMS. SURFACE GRADIENTS
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE. THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE. WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS INCREASING A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENING A TOUCH. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST FURTHER INLAND ON SATURDAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
COOLING...5 DEGREES OR SO...FOR THE HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TODAY. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION
WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON DRY AND
STABLE. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VERY LIMITED LOW CLOUDS TO
THE COAST AND STRAIT LATE AROUND DAYBREAK. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 10Z HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST
STRAIT AND NORTH COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR ALL OTHER
AREAS. LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW OVER THE COAST
AND STRAIT AND CLEAR QUICKLY BY MID MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN AROUND
DAYBREAK...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 10 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...SUPPORTING VARYING DEGREES ONSHORE FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WESTERLY SWELL 4 TO 5 FEET AT 8 SECONDS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND STRAIT...PERSISTING INTO LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 270353
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
855 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
INNER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL PRODUCE SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS.
HIGHS WILL WARM ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO SUNDAY...THEN PERHAPS A FEW
MORE DEGREES ON MONDAY WITH TUESDAY ABOUT THE SAME AS MONDAY. 80S
SHOULD BE COMMON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 70S IN THE USUAL COOLER
LOCATIONS NEAR THE WATER AND AT THE COAST.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY AND SATELLITE DOES NOT CURRENTLY SHOW ANY LOW CLOUDS...
UNLIKE YESTERDAY EVENING WHEN THERE WERE SOME PATCHES AROUND. THESE
INGREDIENTS SUGGEST THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF ANY LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN IN THE MORE
PRONE LOCATIONS BUT PROBABLY LESS THAN WHAT WE HAD THIS MORNING...
WHICH WAS NOT THAT MUCH. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
FARTHER EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...PLACING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS
WOULD HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WOULD BE TO INITIATE A STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUDS. HAVE CHOSEN NOT
TO BITE OFF COMPLETELY ON THIS IDEA SINCE IT WAS STILL TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PREDICTED TEMPS FOR
DAYS 6 AND 7 MIGHT BE TOO WARM.

CONCERNING TSTM POTENTIAL...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
THREAT OF TSTMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA. THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUED TO BE THE OUTLIER IN
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ALONG AND JUST WEST THE CASCADE
CREST BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RISING HEIGHTS
OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON DRY AND STABLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST AND STRAIT LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ALL OTHER AREAS.
STRATUS WILL CLEAR OVER THE COAST AND STRAIT BY LATE MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS 4 TO 9 KTS
WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EAST STRAIT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
WESTERLY SWELL 4 TO 5 FEET. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INNER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 270353
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
855 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
INNER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL PRODUCE SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS.
HIGHS WILL WARM ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO SUNDAY...THEN PERHAPS A FEW
MORE DEGREES ON MONDAY WITH TUESDAY ABOUT THE SAME AS MONDAY. 80S
SHOULD BE COMMON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 70S IN THE USUAL COOLER
LOCATIONS NEAR THE WATER AND AT THE COAST.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY AND SATELLITE DOES NOT CURRENTLY SHOW ANY LOW CLOUDS...
UNLIKE YESTERDAY EVENING WHEN THERE WERE SOME PATCHES AROUND. THESE
INGREDIENTS SUGGEST THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF ANY LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN IN THE MORE
PRONE LOCATIONS BUT PROBABLY LESS THAN WHAT WE HAD THIS MORNING...
WHICH WAS NOT THAT MUCH. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
FARTHER EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...PLACING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS
WOULD HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WOULD BE TO INITIATE A STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUDS. HAVE CHOSEN NOT
TO BITE OFF COMPLETELY ON THIS IDEA SINCE IT WAS STILL TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PREDICTED TEMPS FOR
DAYS 6 AND 7 MIGHT BE TOO WARM.

CONCERNING TSTM POTENTIAL...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
THREAT OF TSTMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA. THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUED TO BE THE OUTLIER IN
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ALONG AND JUST WEST THE CASCADE
CREST BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RISING HEIGHTS
OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON DRY AND STABLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST AND STRAIT LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ALL OTHER AREAS.
STRATUS WILL CLEAR OVER THE COAST AND STRAIT BY LATE MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS 4 TO 9 KTS
WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EAST STRAIT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
WESTERLY SWELL 4 TO 5 FEET. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INNER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 262210
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
310 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...THUS EXPECT WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW TO PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG OVER MAINLY THE COAST. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
FARTHER EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...PLACING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS
WOULD HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WOULD BE TO INITIATE A STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUDS. HAVE CHOSEN NOT
TO BITE OFF COMPLETELY ON THIS IDEA SINCE IT WAS STILL TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PREDICTED TEMPS FOR
DAYS 6 AND 7 MIGHT BE TOO WARM.

CONCERNING TSTM POTENTIAL...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
THREAT OF TSTMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA. THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUED TO BE THE OUTLIER IN
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ALONG AND JUST WEST THE CASCADE
CREST BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER IDAHO.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED SPOTS OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
NEAR THE NW COAST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WILL REFORM AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...REMAINING SIMILARLY CONSTRAINED TO THE COAST AND STRAIT AS
THEY WERE THIS MORNING...AND THEN BURNING OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO STRATUS
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 9 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SORT OF PATTERN...EXPECT
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...LIKELY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 261612
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
912 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA UNDER
BRIGHT...SUNNY SKIES.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MON. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...THUS ANTICIPATE LIGHT LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST...RESULTING IN AREAS OF NIGHT/
MORNING STRATUS AND FOG OVER MAINLY THE COAST. TEMPS WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
00Z EXTENDED MODELS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH WILL BRING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE
DAY CONVECTION IN THE CASCADES BUT WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL STAY WITH THE IDEA OF HIGH TEMPERATURES 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. THE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN PLAY ALONG
THE COAST KEEPING HIGHS THERE AROUND 70 DEGREES. WHAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL DEVELOP WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE COAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AND AMPLIFIES.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COAST...STRAIT...AND WHATCOM COUNTY EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO SUNNY SKIES BY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL REFORM AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REMAINING
SIMILARLY CONSTRAINED TO THE COAST AND STRAIT...AND BURNING OFF BY
LATE MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO STRATUS
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 9 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SORT OF PATTERN...EXPECT
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...LIKELY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
     2 AM SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 261612
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
912 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA UNDER
BRIGHT...SUNNY SKIES.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MON. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...THUS ANTICIPATE LIGHT LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST...RESULTING IN AREAS OF NIGHT/
MORNING STRATUS AND FOG OVER MAINLY THE COAST. TEMPS WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
00Z EXTENDED MODELS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH WILL BRING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE
DAY CONVECTION IN THE CASCADES BUT WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL STAY WITH THE IDEA OF HIGH TEMPERATURES 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. THE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN PLAY ALONG
THE COAST KEEPING HIGHS THERE AROUND 70 DEGREES. WHAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL DEVELOP WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE COAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AND AMPLIFIES.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COAST...STRAIT...AND WHATCOM COUNTY EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO SUNNY SKIES BY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL REFORM AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REMAINING
SIMILARLY CONSTRAINED TO THE COAST AND STRAIT...AND BURNING OFF BY
LATE MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO STRATUS
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 9 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SORT OF PATTERN...EXPECT
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...LIKELY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
     2 AM SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 261040
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE A STRETCH OF SUNNY AND
WARM WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BACK NEAR 150W. LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS EXTENDING NORTH NORTHWEST TO NEAR THE SAN JUANS. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ELSEWHERE JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AT 10Z/3 AM WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 60.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE WILL DIG SOUTH TODAY. THIS IN TURN
WILL START INCREASING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. 500 MB HEIGHTS START THE DAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 570 DMS AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ENDING UP IN THE LOW
580S DMS BY 00Z SUN/5 PM SAT. AT THE SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE FLAT THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE DAY WITH A LITTLE INCREASE
IN THE WESTERLY GRADIENT THROUGH THE STRAIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH THE FLAT SURFACE GRADIENTS NO EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN
THE WAY OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. MODEL 850
TEMPERATURES RISE FROM PLUS 8 TO 10C EARLY THIS MORNING TO PLUS 10
TO 14C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
FRIDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 70
ON THE COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING WELL OFFSHORE. 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE MID 580 DMS BY 00Z MON/5 PM SUN WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING ANOTHER 3 OR 4 DEGREES C. EXPECT ANOTHER 5
DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING FOR THE INTERIOR WHICH WILL PUSH THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH 80S COMMON OVER MOST OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH THE WEAK NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS HIGHS ALONG
THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ON MONDAY WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 580 DMS AND THE SURFACE GRADIENTS LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SLIGHTLY SO THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING FOR THE INTERIOR. FOR THE MOST
PART HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR THE INTERIOR WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 780S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...00Z EXTENDED MODELS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH BRINGS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
LATE DAY CONVECTION IN THE CASCADES BUT WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL STAY WITH THE IDEA OF HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. THE NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN PLAY ALONG THE COAST
KEEPING HIGHS THERE AROUND 70 DEGREES. WHAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW
CLOUDS THAT WILL DEVELOP WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AND AMPLIFIES.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO REFORM
OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY THE LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS AND OVERALL DRYING
TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTING AT STRATUS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT AS
OF 10Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COAST...CHEHALIS GAP
AND STRAIT AROUND DAYBREAK AND PERSIST INTO MID MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TO SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
REFORM AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REMAINING SIMILARLY CONSTRAINED
TO THE COAST AND STRAIT...BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING.


KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS 6 TO 8 KTS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AROUND SUNRISE...BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY 6 TO 8 KTS AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SORT OF PATTERN...EXPECT
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SWELL 3 TO 4
FEET AT AROUND 8 SECONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 261040
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE A STRETCH OF SUNNY AND
WARM WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BACK NEAR 150W. LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS EXTENDING NORTH NORTHWEST TO NEAR THE SAN JUANS. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ELSEWHERE JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AT 10Z/3 AM WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 60.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE WILL DIG SOUTH TODAY. THIS IN TURN
WILL START INCREASING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. 500 MB HEIGHTS START THE DAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 570 DMS AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ENDING UP IN THE LOW
580S DMS BY 00Z SUN/5 PM SAT. AT THE SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE FLAT THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE DAY WITH A LITTLE INCREASE
IN THE WESTERLY GRADIENT THROUGH THE STRAIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH THE FLAT SURFACE GRADIENTS NO EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN
THE WAY OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. MODEL 850
TEMPERATURES RISE FROM PLUS 8 TO 10C EARLY THIS MORNING TO PLUS 10
TO 14C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
FRIDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 70
ON THE COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING WELL OFFSHORE. 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE MID 580 DMS BY 00Z MON/5 PM SUN WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING ANOTHER 3 OR 4 DEGREES C. EXPECT ANOTHER 5
DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING FOR THE INTERIOR WHICH WILL PUSH THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH 80S COMMON OVER MOST OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH THE WEAK NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS HIGHS ALONG
THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ON MONDAY WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 580 DMS AND THE SURFACE GRADIENTS LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SLIGHTLY SO THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING FOR THE INTERIOR. FOR THE MOST
PART HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR THE INTERIOR WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 780S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...00Z EXTENDED MODELS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH BRINGS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
LATE DAY CONVECTION IN THE CASCADES BUT WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL STAY WITH THE IDEA OF HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. THE NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN PLAY ALONG THE COAST
KEEPING HIGHS THERE AROUND 70 DEGREES. WHAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW
CLOUDS THAT WILL DEVELOP WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AND AMPLIFIES.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO REFORM
OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY THE LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS AND OVERALL DRYING
TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTING AT STRATUS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT AS
OF 10Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COAST...CHEHALIS GAP
AND STRAIT AROUND DAYBREAK AND PERSIST INTO MID MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TO SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
REFORM AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REMAINING SIMILARLY CONSTRAINED
TO THE COAST AND STRAIT...BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING.


KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS 6 TO 8 KTS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AROUND SUNRISE...BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY 6 TO 8 KTS AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SORT OF PATTERN...EXPECT
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SWELL 3 TO 4
FEET AT AROUND 8 SECONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 260400
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE A STRETCH OF SUNNY AND
WARM WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD LIMIT NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS. THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL WARM AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. BY
MONDAY...MOST INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S EXCEPT
FOR 70S IN THE USUAL COOLER SPOTS NEAR THE WATER. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...THUS EXPECT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO
PERSIST. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LEADING TO MORE CLOUDS BUT THIS WAS TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE
TO BANK ON. ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME TSTMS
OVER THE CASCADES ON DAY 7...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE PREFERS.
CHOSE TO BROAD-BRUSH THE FORECAST BY INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND CONFINING LOW CLOUDS TO MAINLY THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE AND AMPLIFIES.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
THIS AFTERNOON TO CLEAR SKIES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE THE EXTENT TO WHICH LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS REFORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. GIVEN THE DRYING TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
OVER THE INTERIOR...EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO REFORM ALONG THE
COAST...CHEHALIS GAP...AND STRAIT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTERIOR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR AND VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

KSEA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT025-040 POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 6 TO 8 KTS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY 2 TO 4 KTS AROUND 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SORT OF PATTERN...EXPECT
STRONGEST WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. HAVE UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WESTERLIES THIS EVENING...REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH 09Z. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
STRENGTHENING AGAIN FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 260400
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE A STRETCH OF SUNNY AND
WARM WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD LIMIT NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS. THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL WARM AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. BY
MONDAY...MOST INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S EXCEPT
FOR 70S IN THE USUAL COOLER SPOTS NEAR THE WATER. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...THUS EXPECT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO
PERSIST. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LEADING TO MORE CLOUDS BUT THIS WAS TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE
TO BANK ON. ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME TSTMS
OVER THE CASCADES ON DAY 7...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE PREFERS.
CHOSE TO BROAD-BRUSH THE FORECAST BY INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND CONFINING LOW CLOUDS TO MAINLY THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE AND AMPLIFIES.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
THIS AFTERNOON TO CLEAR SKIES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE THE EXTENT TO WHICH LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS REFORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. GIVEN THE DRYING TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
OVER THE INTERIOR...EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO REFORM ALONG THE
COAST...CHEHALIS GAP...AND STRAIT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTERIOR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR AND VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

KSEA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT025-040 POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 6 TO 8 KTS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY 2 TO 4 KTS AROUND 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SORT OF PATTERN...EXPECT
STRONGEST WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. HAVE UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WESTERLIES THIS EVENING...REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH 09Z. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
STRENGTHENING AGAIN FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 252148
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
248 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ABOUT 95 MILES OFFSHORE. THIS
BAND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS BLANKETED THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY. ANTICIPATE
SOME CLEARING OVER THE CWA DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MON. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE ANTICIPATE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST. THE MAIN IMPACT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM BECOMING TOO
HOT. AT ANY RATE...LOOK FOR DRY...SUNNIER...AND WARMER WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...THUS
EXPECT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO MORE
CLOUDS BUT THIS WAS TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BANK ON. ALSO...
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME TSTMS OVER THE
CASCADES ON DAY 7...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE PREFERS. CHOSE
TO BROAD-BRUSH THE FORECAST BY INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
CONFINING LOW CLOUDS TO MAINLY THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IS STABLE. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ALMOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER SOME OF THE WATER
WAYS OF PUGET SOUND. SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS 3-5K FT MOST AREAS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER TO RETURN SAT MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS SAT MORNING BUT THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
FASTER AND MORE COMPLETELY THAN THIS MORNING.

KSEA...SCT-BKN 4K CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD GO TO
FEW-SCT BY THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FEW-SCT025-040
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE TO BE ON THE EDGE OF BKN015 BY 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...A TYPICAL PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT STRONGEST WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT SCA WINDS ARE
BORDERLINE FOR TONIGHT...MORE LIKELY FOR SAT...AND BORDERLINE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 252148
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
248 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ABOUT 95 MILES OFFSHORE. THIS
BAND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS BLANKETED THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY. ANTICIPATE
SOME CLEARING OVER THE CWA DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MON. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE ANTICIPATE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST. THE MAIN IMPACT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM BECOMING TOO
HOT. AT ANY RATE...LOOK FOR DRY...SUNNIER...AND WARMER WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...THUS
EXPECT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO MORE
CLOUDS BUT THIS WAS TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BANK ON. ALSO...
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME TSTMS OVER THE
CASCADES ON DAY 7...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE PREFERS. CHOSE
TO BROAD-BRUSH THE FORECAST BY INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
CONFINING LOW CLOUDS TO MAINLY THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IS STABLE. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ALMOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER SOME OF THE WATER
WAYS OF PUGET SOUND. SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS 3-5K FT MOST AREAS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER TO RETURN SAT MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS SAT MORNING BUT THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
FASTER AND MORE COMPLETELY THAN THIS MORNING.

KSEA...SCT-BKN 4K CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD GO TO
FEW-SCT BY THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FEW-SCT025-040
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE TO BE ON THE EDGE OF BKN015 BY 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...A TYPICAL PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT STRONGEST WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT SCA WINDS ARE
BORDERLINE FOR TONIGHT...MORE LIKELY FOR SAT...AND BORDERLINE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 251624
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
924 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR DRIER...SUNNIER...AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COAST...OLYMPIC RANGE...AND FAR NORTH CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
CWA TODAY.

HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
STILL BE ONSHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS TO REDEVELOP OVER
THE AREA BUT IT SHOULD BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE. THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL BUILD NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS ABOVE 5800 M OVER WRN WA. THIS SUPPORTS A DRY AND
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS ON SATURDAY...WARMING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
SUNDAY. MERCER/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DOMINATING THE INTERIOR WRN U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
WAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND
THIS WILL AFFECT WHERE THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
MOST MODELS RUNS KEPT THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NWD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WHICH WOULD KEEP LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN WA. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
WARM...WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S MAY
BE AVERTED IF THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FARTHER EAST. THE MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF HAS VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN...SOME PUTTING THE RIDGE
CLOSER TO OUR AREA SO A PERIOD OF EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE
AVERAGE REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT RIDGE POSITION. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BEFORE RELAXING LATE TONIGHT.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IS STABLE. LINGERING AREAS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF THE
STRAIT AND THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AREA AS WELL AS WHATCOM COUNTY.
CEILINGS CURRENTLY 2-5K FT MOST AREAS...EXCEPT LOCAL CIGS NR 1K
AROUND THE KOLM AREA. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND/OR SCATTER OUT TO
VFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING...WITH CLEARING OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...FEW-SCT 2-45K CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING WITH MORE
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND FLOW HAVE RELAXED THIS MORNING. A
TYPICAL PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT STRONGEST WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS 10 TO 20
KT WESTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON AND NOMINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 251624
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
924 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR DRIER...SUNNIER...AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COAST...OLYMPIC RANGE...AND FAR NORTH CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
CWA TODAY.

HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
STILL BE ONSHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS TO REDEVELOP OVER
THE AREA BUT IT SHOULD BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE. THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL BUILD NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS ABOVE 5800 M OVER WRN WA. THIS SUPPORTS A DRY AND
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS ON SATURDAY...WARMING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
SUNDAY. MERCER/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DOMINATING THE INTERIOR WRN U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
WAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND
THIS WILL AFFECT WHERE THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
MOST MODELS RUNS KEPT THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NWD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WHICH WOULD KEEP LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN WA. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
WARM...WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S MAY
BE AVERTED IF THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FARTHER EAST. THE MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF HAS VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN...SOME PUTTING THE RIDGE
CLOSER TO OUR AREA SO A PERIOD OF EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE
AVERAGE REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT RIDGE POSITION. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BEFORE RELAXING LATE TONIGHT.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IS STABLE. LINGERING AREAS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF THE
STRAIT AND THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AREA AS WELL AS WHATCOM COUNTY.
CEILINGS CURRENTLY 2-5K FT MOST AREAS...EXCEPT LOCAL CIGS NR 1K
AROUND THE KOLM AREA. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND/OR SCATTER OUT TO
VFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING...WITH CLEARING OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...FEW-SCT 2-45K CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING WITH MORE
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND FLOW HAVE RELAXED THIS MORNING. A
TYPICAL PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT STRONGEST WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS 10 TO 20
KT WESTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON AND NOMINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 251020
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE CLOUDY
SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING SUNNY
WARMER WEATHER THAT SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING ONTO THE B.C. COAST AND
BRUSHING WRN WA. THERE ARE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE MAIN AFFECT IS TO MAINTAIN MOIST LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE WAS ALREADY PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
FROM EARLIER TODAY WHICH ALLOWED STRATUS TO REFORM AND EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SW INTERIOR ODDLY WHICH IS
MOSTLY CLOUDY FREE SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST TODAY
INDICATES A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. I
RELUCTANTLY KEPT SOME LOW POPS ON THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS A MOS
BLEND STILL SHOWS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. CURRENT OBS DO
SHOW LIGHT RAIN ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND SO IT IS POSSIBLE A BIT OF
THIS PRECIPITATION COULD SKIRT OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SHOULD BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM THE
STRATUS LAYER THIS MORNING. WITH SOME SUN BREAKING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AROUND PUGET
SOUND BUT STILL IN THE 60S COAST AND STRAIT.

HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE
ONSHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS TO REFORM OVER THE AREA BUT IT
SHOULD BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE. THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDS NWD
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOVE
5800 M OVER WRN WA. THIS SUPPORTS A DRY AND WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON SATURDAY...WARNING TO THE LOW AND MID
80S SUNDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE INTERIOR WRN U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT AND THIS WILL AFFECT WHERE THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS. MOST MODELS RUNS KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NWD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WHICH WOULD KEEP LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN WA. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
WARM...WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S MAY BE
AVERTED IF THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FURTHER EAST. THE MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF HAS VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN...SOME PUTTING THE RIDGE CLOSER TO
OUR AREA SO A PERIOD OF EVEN WARMER  WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT RIDGE POSITION. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BEFORE RELAXING LATE TONIGHT.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS DRIED AND BECOME MORE
STABLE OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
HAS HELPED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...STRAIT AND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR WHILE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR REMAINS SPOTTY AS OF 10Z. CEILINGS CURRENTLY 3-5K FT MOST
AREAS...EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE OVER THE
COAST AND OLYMPICS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MORNING CLOUDS
WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS LATE MORNING...WITH CLEARING OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER AROUND DAY BREAK TO MVFR
LEVELS NEAR 1.5K FT...THEN LIFT BY LATE MORNING AND CLEARING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 6 KT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND FLOW HAVE RELAXED THIS MORNING. A
TYPICAL PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT STRONGEST WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS 10 TO 20
KT WESTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON AND NOMINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALL OTHER WATERS
WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 251020
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE CLOUDY
SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING SUNNY
WARMER WEATHER THAT SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING ONTO THE B.C. COAST AND
BRUSHING WRN WA. THERE ARE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE MAIN AFFECT IS TO MAINTAIN MOIST LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE WAS ALREADY PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
FROM EARLIER TODAY WHICH ALLOWED STRATUS TO REFORM AND EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SW INTERIOR ODDLY WHICH IS
MOSTLY CLOUDY FREE SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST TODAY
INDICATES A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. I
RELUCTANTLY KEPT SOME LOW POPS ON THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS A MOS
BLEND STILL SHOWS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. CURRENT OBS DO
SHOW LIGHT RAIN ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND SO IT IS POSSIBLE A BIT OF
THIS PRECIPITATION COULD SKIRT OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SHOULD BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM THE
STRATUS LAYER THIS MORNING. WITH SOME SUN BREAKING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AROUND PUGET
SOUND BUT STILL IN THE 60S COAST AND STRAIT.

HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE
ONSHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS TO REFORM OVER THE AREA BUT IT
SHOULD BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE. THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDS NWD
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOVE
5800 M OVER WRN WA. THIS SUPPORTS A DRY AND WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON SATURDAY...WARNING TO THE LOW AND MID
80S SUNDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE INTERIOR WRN U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT AND THIS WILL AFFECT WHERE THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS. MOST MODELS RUNS KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NWD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WHICH WOULD KEEP LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN WA. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
WARM...WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S MAY BE
AVERTED IF THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FURTHER EAST. THE MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF HAS VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN...SOME PUTTING THE RIDGE CLOSER TO
OUR AREA SO A PERIOD OF EVEN WARMER  WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT RIDGE POSITION. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BEFORE RELAXING LATE TONIGHT.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS DRIED AND BECOME MORE
STABLE OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
HAS HELPED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...STRAIT AND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR WHILE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR REMAINS SPOTTY AS OF 10Z. CEILINGS CURRENTLY 3-5K FT MOST
AREAS...EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE OVER THE
COAST AND OLYMPICS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MORNING CLOUDS
WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS LATE MORNING...WITH CLEARING OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER AROUND DAY BREAK TO MVFR
LEVELS NEAR 1.5K FT...THEN LIFT BY LATE MORNING AND CLEARING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 6 KT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND FLOW HAVE RELAXED THIS MORNING. A
TYPICAL PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT STRONGEST WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS 10 TO 20
KT WESTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON AND NOMINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALL OTHER WATERS
WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












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