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000
FXUS66 KSEW 111702
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIKE YESTERDAY...RAIN HAS MOVED IN FASTER THAN MODELS
PREDICTED. RADAR IS LIT UP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND NEW MODEL RUNS
BRING RAIN NORTHEAST FASTER...GENERALLY TO THE SEATTLE AREA OR SO IN
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
HIGHER POPS SOONER. ONLY THE NORTHERNMOST INTERIOR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY TODAY...THOUGH A SPRINKLE THERE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ANY AREAS THAT STAY DRY TODAY WILL
GET WET TONIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN BY
18Z FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS ON THE COAST. IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO A MINOR CHANGE
FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS WHICH BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH FASTER. IF
CORRECT THEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SPEND THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...GIVING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID
50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING SHOWERS. SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL DIP TO 3000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE COAST AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD INLAND AS THE SNOW LEVEL RISES BACK TO 6000 FEET OR SO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY
LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH...IN THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND
TO ALL POINTS NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY
PUMP UP MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY
EVEN FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST. A
WARM FRONT SITTING FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF OREGON TO A 988 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL GIVE
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO THE INTERIOR AND TO THE COASTAL STRIP TODAY
EVEN WITH RAINFALL INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THE NORTH AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT WITH LOWERING CIGS
FRI MORNING AS OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENTS DECREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...P6SM BKN-OVC080 WILL LOWER TO OVC040 THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN
ABOUT 22Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO OVC025-030 ABOUT 12Z FRI.
WINDS NE 4-6 KT BECOMING SELY 5-7 KT AT 06Z AND SLY 8-12 KT 14Z.
ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO A
988 MB LOW NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND
ADMIRALTY INLET...AND LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
OLYMPICS AND A MESO LOW FORMS OVER THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 111702
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIKE YESTERDAY...RAIN HAS MOVED IN FASTER THAN MODELS
PREDICTED. RADAR IS LIT UP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND NEW MODEL RUNS
BRING RAIN NORTHEAST FASTER...GENERALLY TO THE SEATTLE AREA OR SO IN
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
HIGHER POPS SOONER. ONLY THE NORTHERNMOST INTERIOR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY TODAY...THOUGH A SPRINKLE THERE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ANY AREAS THAT STAY DRY TODAY WILL
GET WET TONIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN BY
18Z FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS ON THE COAST. IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO A MINOR CHANGE
FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS WHICH BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH FASTER. IF
CORRECT THEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SPEND THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...GIVING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID
50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING SHOWERS. SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL DIP TO 3000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE COAST AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD INLAND AS THE SNOW LEVEL RISES BACK TO 6000 FEET OR SO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY
LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH...IN THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND
TO ALL POINTS NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY
PUMP UP MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY
EVEN FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST. A
WARM FRONT SITTING FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF OREGON TO A 988 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL GIVE
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO THE INTERIOR AND TO THE COASTAL STRIP TODAY
EVEN WITH RAINFALL INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THE NORTH AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT WITH LOWERING CIGS
FRI MORNING AS OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENTS DECREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...P6SM BKN-OVC080 WILL LOWER TO OVC040 THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN
ABOUT 22Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO OVC025-030 ABOUT 12Z FRI.
WINDS NE 4-6 KT BECOMING SELY 5-7 KT AT 06Z AND SLY 8-12 KT 14Z.
ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO A
988 MB LOW NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND
ADMIRALTY INLET...AND LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
OLYMPICS AND A MESO LOW FORMS OVER THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 111702
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIKE YESTERDAY...RAIN HAS MOVED IN FASTER THAN MODELS
PREDICTED. RADAR IS LIT UP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND NEW MODEL RUNS
BRING RAIN NORTHEAST FASTER...GENERALLY TO THE SEATTLE AREA OR SO IN
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
HIGHER POPS SOONER. ONLY THE NORTHERNMOST INTERIOR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY TODAY...THOUGH A SPRINKLE THERE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ANY AREAS THAT STAY DRY TODAY WILL
GET WET TONIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN BY
18Z FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS ON THE COAST. IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO A MINOR CHANGE
FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS WHICH BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH FASTER. IF
CORRECT THEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SPEND THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...GIVING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID
50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING SHOWERS. SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL DIP TO 3000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE COAST AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD INLAND AS THE SNOW LEVEL RISES BACK TO 6000 FEET OR SO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY
LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH...IN THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND
TO ALL POINTS NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY
PUMP UP MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY
EVEN FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST. A
WARM FRONT SITTING FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF OREGON TO A 988 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL GIVE
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO THE INTERIOR AND TO THE COASTAL STRIP TODAY
EVEN WITH RAINFALL INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THE NORTH AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT WITH LOWERING CIGS
FRI MORNING AS OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENTS DECREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...P6SM BKN-OVC080 WILL LOWER TO OVC040 THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN
ABOUT 22Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO OVC025-030 ABOUT 12Z FRI.
WINDS NE 4-6 KT BECOMING SELY 5-7 KT AT 06Z AND SLY 8-12 KT 14Z.
ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO A
988 MB LOW NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND
ADMIRALTY INLET...AND LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
OLYMPICS AND A MESO LOW FORMS OVER THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 111101
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT
CURRENT RADAR STARTING TO SHOW THAT COMING TO A CLOSE AS ECHOES
STARTING TO EMERGE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST OF RADAR RANGE...SO SHOULD
START TO SEE PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY MID MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...STARTING WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA TODAY. AS PRECIP FROM THAT FRONT IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON
RADAR...HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THIS MORNING...BUT TIMING
LOOKS GOOD FOR PRECIP TO GENERALLY START LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED FOR HITTING THE COAST
EARLY FRIDAY AM...IMPACTING MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THERE MIGHT JUST BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM
RAIN SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME
ONSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
THAT WILL STRETCH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S FOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN
THE NEAR TERM...THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWLAND TEMPS DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST SHY OF 50. SIMILARLY...SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
FOR MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM AS WELL...GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FT PRE-
FRONT AND STARTING TO REBOUND SUNDAY POST-FRONT. IN THE TIME
BETWEEN...HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 3000-
4000 FT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SNOW IN THE PASSES.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST THAT HAVE NOT
ALREADY BEEN MENTIONED...ONLY UPDATES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST
MODEL RUNS. SMR

.LONG TERM...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO
PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO
ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...IN
THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND TO ALL POINTS
NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY PUMP UP
MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY EVEN
FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND FAIRLY MOIST
SO THERE WILL BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING BUT WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WONT HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP LIKE IT
DID THE OTHER DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS
FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO WRN WA.
RAIN SHOULD REACH THE COAST MID TO LATE MORNING AND THE INTERIOR OF
WRN WA WILL SEE RAIN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG SHALLOW THIS MORNING AND NOT
LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH SEA TAC. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...THEN CIGS WILL LOWER WITH RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT NNE WIND SHOULD GO BACK TO SLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT OR FRI MORNING AND THEN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 111101
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT
CURRENT RADAR STARTING TO SHOW THAT COMING TO A CLOSE AS ECHOES
STARTING TO EMERGE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST OF RADAR RANGE...SO SHOULD
START TO SEE PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY MID MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...STARTING WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA TODAY. AS PRECIP FROM THAT FRONT IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON
RADAR...HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THIS MORNING...BUT TIMING
LOOKS GOOD FOR PRECIP TO GENERALLY START LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED FOR HITTING THE COAST
EARLY FRIDAY AM...IMPACTING MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THERE MIGHT JUST BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM
RAIN SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME
ONSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
THAT WILL STRETCH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S FOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN
THE NEAR TERM...THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWLAND TEMPS DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST SHY OF 50. SIMILARLY...SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
FOR MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM AS WELL...GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FT PRE-
FRONT AND STARTING TO REBOUND SUNDAY POST-FRONT. IN THE TIME
BETWEEN...HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 3000-
4000 FT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SNOW IN THE PASSES.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST THAT HAVE NOT
ALREADY BEEN MENTIONED...ONLY UPDATES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST
MODEL RUNS. SMR

.LONG TERM...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO
PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO
ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...IN
THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND TO ALL POINTS
NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY PUMP UP
MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY EVEN
FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND FAIRLY MOIST
SO THERE WILL BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING BUT WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WONT HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP LIKE IT
DID THE OTHER DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS
FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO WRN WA.
RAIN SHOULD REACH THE COAST MID TO LATE MORNING AND THE INTERIOR OF
WRN WA WILL SEE RAIN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG SHALLOW THIS MORNING AND NOT
LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH SEA TAC. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...THEN CIGS WILL LOWER WITH RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT NNE WIND SHOULD GO BACK TO SLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT OR FRI MORNING AND THEN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 111101
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT
CURRENT RADAR STARTING TO SHOW THAT COMING TO A CLOSE AS ECHOES
STARTING TO EMERGE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST OF RADAR RANGE...SO SHOULD
START TO SEE PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY MID MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...STARTING WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA TODAY. AS PRECIP FROM THAT FRONT IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON
RADAR...HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THIS MORNING...BUT TIMING
LOOKS GOOD FOR PRECIP TO GENERALLY START LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED FOR HITTING THE COAST
EARLY FRIDAY AM...IMPACTING MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THERE MIGHT JUST BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM
RAIN SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME
ONSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
THAT WILL STRETCH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S FOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN
THE NEAR TERM...THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWLAND TEMPS DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST SHY OF 50. SIMILARLY...SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
FOR MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM AS WELL...GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FT PRE-
FRONT AND STARTING TO REBOUND SUNDAY POST-FRONT. IN THE TIME
BETWEEN...HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 3000-
4000 FT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SNOW IN THE PASSES.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST THAT HAVE NOT
ALREADY BEEN MENTIONED...ONLY UPDATES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST
MODEL RUNS. SMR

.LONG TERM...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO
PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO
ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...IN
THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND TO ALL POINTS
NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY PUMP UP
MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY EVEN
FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND FAIRLY MOIST
SO THERE WILL BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING BUT WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WONT HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP LIKE IT
DID THE OTHER DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS
FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO WRN WA.
RAIN SHOULD REACH THE COAST MID TO LATE MORNING AND THE INTERIOR OF
WRN WA WILL SEE RAIN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG SHALLOW THIS MORNING AND NOT
LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH SEA TAC. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...THEN CIGS WILL LOWER WITH RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT NNE WIND SHOULD GO BACK TO SLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT OR FRI MORNING AND THEN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 110435
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WESTERN
WASHINGTON DRY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF
WARM FRONTS WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT OVER MUCH OF W WA THIS EVENING...IN-BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOONS WEAK
FRONT AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW. IR IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ALREADY MOVING OVER SW WA AT
330Z/730 PM THIS EVENING.

MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL SEND THE
WARM FRONT...ABOUT 400 NM W OF THE S OREGON COAST AT 0330Z/730
PM...UP OVER W WA ON THURSDAY. THE NEW 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE SW HALF OF W WA BY 18Z/10 AM
THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE N PART OF W WA BY 00Z/4 PM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEW 00Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER AT 18Z BUT CATCH UP BY 00Z. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION HEADING TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND BUT A
FAIRLY GOOD SHOT WILL REACH THE WA COAST AND THE OLYMPICS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS WARM ADVECTION AT 925 MB
FINALLY ENDING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THURSDAY EVENING. BY COMPARISON THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. MODEL QPF STILL VARIES QUITE A BIT...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE COAST WILL GET 0.80-1.00 AND THE INTERIOR
SOMEWHERE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE OLYMPICS COULD GET 1-2
INCHES. WIND SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE COAST AND N INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 6000 FEET.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE W COAST AROUND OR BEFORE 12Z/4 AM SATURDAY. THE
COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE
AREA BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO BELOW
4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THE PASSES WILL SEE SOME SNOW.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH RAIN REACHING THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN
SPREADING INLAND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SATURDAYS WARM FRONT. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY PERIOD. ON MONDAY MODELS
SHIFT THE RAIN NORTH TO VARYING DEGREES. MODEL SIMILARITY IS LACKING
AFTER THAT AND HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GIVING
TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND FAIRLY MOIST
SO SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAY SET UP OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE
THURSDAY AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

KSEA...THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS ARE LIKELY LATER THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLY BREEZE THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR MAYBE NE FOR AWHILE...THEN GO BACK TO SLY LATER THU.

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT THU.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING AND
THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT
MORNING. A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND GRAYS HARBOR BAR 3 AM THU TO 9 PM THU.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 102255
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS EVENING BUT ALSO PARTIAL CLEARING. RAIN WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. IT
DID HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THIS IMPULSE
AS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT...NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
REACH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. IT WILL
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...GIVING SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SNOW LEVEL...
WHICH WILL HAVE BEEN AT 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL NOW...WILL FALL TO
3000-4000 FEET. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ON THE COAST. SATURDAY HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY
PERIOD. ON MONDAY MODELS SHIFT THE RAIN NORTH TO VARYING DEGREES.
MODEL SIMILARITY IS LACKING AFTER THAT AND HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT DOES
APPEAR WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GIVING TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND SOMEWHAT
MOIST. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
MOVE NE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THU AFTERNOON.

THE INCOMING FRONT SHEARED APART TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY
PORTIONS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE INTERIOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FLOW ALOFT
INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL TERRAIN IS PROVIDING SOME OCCASIONAL
CLEARING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
WITH CIGS RISING TO ABOUT 060 AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO MORE
EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND OVC030 LATE THU AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT INCREASES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS 13005-08KT WILL BACK TO
AROUND 09005KT ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT THEN BECOME 02005-07KT ABOUT 12Z AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND
WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND S TO SE WINDS OVER ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS AND DISSIPATES.

A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON THU.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT THU
MORNING THE SPREADING INTO THE EAST ENTRANCE LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING.

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AREA WHILE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRI AFTERNOON.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY
     INLET-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 102255
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS EVENING BUT ALSO PARTIAL CLEARING. RAIN WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. IT
DID HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THIS IMPULSE
AS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT...NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
REACH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. IT WILL
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...GIVING SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SNOW LEVEL...
WHICH WILL HAVE BEEN AT 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL NOW...WILL FALL TO
3000-4000 FEET. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ON THE COAST. SATURDAY HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY
PERIOD. ON MONDAY MODELS SHIFT THE RAIN NORTH TO VARYING DEGREES.
MODEL SIMILARITY IS LACKING AFTER THAT AND HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT DOES
APPEAR WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GIVING TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND SOMEWHAT
MOIST. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
MOVE NE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THU AFTERNOON.

THE INCOMING FRONT SHEARED APART TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY
PORTIONS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE INTERIOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FLOW ALOFT
INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL TERRAIN IS PROVIDING SOME OCCASIONAL
CLEARING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
WITH CIGS RISING TO ABOUT 060 AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO MORE
EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND OVC030 LATE THU AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT INCREASES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS 13005-08KT WILL BACK TO
AROUND 09005KT ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT THEN BECOME 02005-07KT ABOUT 12Z AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND
WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND S TO SE WINDS OVER ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS AND DISSIPATES.

A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON THU.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT THU
MORNING THE SPREADING INTO THE EAST ENTRANCE LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING.

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AREA WHILE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRI AFTERNOON.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY
     INLET-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 102255
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS EVENING BUT ALSO PARTIAL CLEARING. RAIN WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. IT
DID HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THIS IMPULSE
AS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT...NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
REACH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. IT WILL
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...GIVING SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SNOW LEVEL...
WHICH WILL HAVE BEEN AT 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL NOW...WILL FALL TO
3000-4000 FEET. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ON THE COAST. SATURDAY HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY
PERIOD. ON MONDAY MODELS SHIFT THE RAIN NORTH TO VARYING DEGREES.
MODEL SIMILARITY IS LACKING AFTER THAT AND HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT DOES
APPEAR WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GIVING TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND SOMEWHAT
MOIST. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
MOVE NE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THU AFTERNOON.

THE INCOMING FRONT SHEARED APART TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY
PORTIONS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE INTERIOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FLOW ALOFT
INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL TERRAIN IS PROVIDING SOME OCCASIONAL
CLEARING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
WITH CIGS RISING TO ABOUT 060 AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO MORE
EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND OVC030 LATE THU AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT INCREASES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS 13005-08KT WILL BACK TO
AROUND 09005KT ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT THEN BECOME 02005-07KT ABOUT 12Z AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND
WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND S TO SE WINDS OVER ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS AND DISSIPATES.

A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON THU.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT THU
MORNING THE SPREADING INTO THE EAST ENTRANCE LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING.

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AREA WHILE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRI AFTERNOON.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY
     INLET-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 101649
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ECHOES OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. NUMEROUS SPOTS THERE HAVE RECEIVED A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF
RAIN. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THIS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM TO
MOVE INLAND TODAY WITHOUT MUCH PUNCH. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NORTH CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S.

THERE IS A BACK EDGE TO THIS SYSTEM APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SO
SOME DRYING IS LIKELY TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT...NOW IT
APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL REACH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. IT WILL RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...GIVING SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED MODELS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AIMED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND ON JUST HOW STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE AND IF THE RIDGE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE MOISTURE NORTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE
00Z RUNS KEEP THE AREA WET THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRY TO LIFT THE BAND
NORTH ON MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND SO WILL STAY
WIT WITH THE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SW ON THU.

A WEAK FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH INLAND
THIS EVENING. RADARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC
PENINSULA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE OFFSHORE...SO PRECIPITATION IN THE INTERIOR
IS VERY LIGHT...FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CIGS ARE SEEN ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING...FALLING TO
2000-3000 FT THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THU...EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO DRY
SOMEWHAT THU MORNING AS A WARM FRONT WELL TO THE SW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND FORCES LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENTS TO BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CIGS AROUND 100 WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 050 THIS AFTERNOON
AND 025-030 ABOUT 02Z. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO OVC060-080 EXPECTED ABOUT
16Z THU. S WIND 4-8 KT THIS AFTN BECOMING ELY THU MORNING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY THEN INLAND THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY S TO SE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SE WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN
ADMIRALTY INLET TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE OLYMPICS AND
PRODUCES A MESOSCALE LOW ON THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON THU.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT ON THU AND
CONTINUE THU NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NE THEN IS FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AREA WHILE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS SAT NIGHT OR SUN. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY
     INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 101140
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WETTER WEATHER TO
RETURN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER WARM
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
BROUGHT THE RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA IS NOW
WELL TO THE EAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STILL SOME HOLES IN THE OVERCAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS NEAR ZERO PATCHY
FOG IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. A COLORFUL SUNRISE IS ALSO STILL
POSSIBLE. DOPPLER RADAR PICKING UP SOME ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET
SO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM GETS NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT IS
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND WEAKENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF
LIKELY POPS ON THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS INLAND TODAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUD COVER AND A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. A BIT OF A BREAK
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BOTTOM OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR
30N/150W...WILL REACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY.

WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING. 00Z AND NEW 06Z
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...
PUTTING IT EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO WITH
SHOWER WORDING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED MODELS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. LONG FETCH OF
MOISTURE AIMED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND ON JUST HOW
STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE AND IF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MOISTURE NORTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE 00Z RUNS KEEP
THE AREA WET THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRY TO LIFT THE BAND NORTH ON
MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND SO WILL STAY WIT WITH
THE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS. THERE WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES ON THE COAST BUT
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD DRY UP MOST OF THE RAIN FOR THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA TODAY WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

KSEA...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHEAST
WIND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING INLAND
SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
     TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 101140
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WETTER WEATHER TO
RETURN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER WARM
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
BROUGHT THE RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA IS NOW
WELL TO THE EAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STILL SOME HOLES IN THE OVERCAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS NEAR ZERO PATCHY
FOG IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. A COLORFUL SUNRISE IS ALSO STILL
POSSIBLE. DOPPLER RADAR PICKING UP SOME ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET
SO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM GETS NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT IS
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND WEAKENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF
LIKELY POPS ON THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS INLAND TODAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUD COVER AND A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. A BIT OF A BREAK
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BOTTOM OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR
30N/150W...WILL REACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY.

WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING. 00Z AND NEW 06Z
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...
PUTTING IT EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO WITH
SHOWER WORDING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED MODELS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. LONG FETCH OF
MOISTURE AIMED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND ON JUST HOW
STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE AND IF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MOISTURE NORTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE 00Z RUNS KEEP
THE AREA WET THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRY TO LIFT THE BAND NORTH ON
MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND SO WILL STAY WIT WITH
THE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS. THERE WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES ON THE COAST BUT
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD DRY UP MOST OF THE RAIN FOR THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA TODAY WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

KSEA...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHEAST
WIND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING INLAND
SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
     TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 101140
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WETTER WEATHER TO
RETURN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER WARM
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
BROUGHT THE RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA IS NOW
WELL TO THE EAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STILL SOME HOLES IN THE OVERCAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS NEAR ZERO PATCHY
FOG IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. A COLORFUL SUNRISE IS ALSO STILL
POSSIBLE. DOPPLER RADAR PICKING UP SOME ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET
SO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM GETS NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT IS
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND WEAKENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF
LIKELY POPS ON THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS INLAND TODAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUD COVER AND A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. A BIT OF A BREAK
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BOTTOM OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR
30N/150W...WILL REACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY.

WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING. 00Z AND NEW 06Z
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...
PUTTING IT EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO WITH
SHOWER WORDING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED MODELS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. LONG FETCH OF
MOISTURE AIMED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND ON JUST HOW
STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE AND IF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MOISTURE NORTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE 00Z RUNS KEEP
THE AREA WET THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRY TO LIFT THE BAND NORTH ON
MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND SO WILL STAY WIT WITH
THE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS. THERE WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES ON THE COAST BUT
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD DRY UP MOST OF THE RAIN FOR THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA TODAY WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

KSEA...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHEAST
WIND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING INLAND
SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
     TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 100408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
808 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WETTER WEATHER TO
RETURN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SW FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND W WA
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS EVENING REGARDING
THE INITIAL WEAK BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUSLY DRY ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE BOTH MIGRATED CLOSER TO THE WETTER SOLUTION THE GFS
HAS HAD THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS OUT OF
THE REMNANT OF A OLD NARROW FRONT JUST OFFSHORE ALONG 127W-128W. THE
GFS SHOWS AN E-W ORIENTED 100-110KT JET STREAK W OF THE N CA COAST
THAT PIVOTS N TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BAND AS THE NOSE OF THE JET STREAK
APPROACHES. THE GFS BRINGS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AROUND
OR AFTER 12Z/4 AM WEDNESDAY THEN SPREADS IT OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS BY LATE MORNING. QPF WILL BE LOW WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FALLING.

SW FLOW ALOFT OFFSHORE WILL REALLY BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AS THE
JET STREAK PIVOTS N. IT LOOKS LIKE THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BAND NEAR 42N/136W TO CATCH UP WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SECOND FRONT SHOULD MOVE OVER THE CASCADES BY 06Z/10 PM
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE WEAK ENOUGH SO THAT POPS ARE ONLY IN THE
CHANCE RANGE FOR THE INTERIOR WITH LIKELY POPS ON THE COAST. QPF
SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT WITH UP TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ON THE
COAST AND UP TO A TENTH OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THE PACNW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...STILL
SHOWING A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THAT
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL TAKE THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE WARM FRONT OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE COAST
AND OLYMPICS SHOULD GET A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN...WITH LOWER
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER HIGH AT 5000-
8000 FEET. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY SO THIS DAY WILL BE SHOWERY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH THE GFS
SENDING SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS NORTH AND THE EURO STILL AIMING THEM AT
WESTERN WASHINGTON. HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET
OVER THE WEEKEND THEN RISE TO 7000 FEET OR SO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SUNDAY
WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS. THERE WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES ON THE COAST BUT LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD DRY UP MOST OF THE RAIN FOR THE INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

KSEA...CURRENT TAF LOOKS FINE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY
DROPPING INTO A TYPICAL CLOUDY DAY TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH MAINLY THE COASTAL WATERS ON
WED. THIS FRONT WILL GIVE AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER WED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING
INLAND SAT.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 100408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
808 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WETTER WEATHER TO
RETURN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SW FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND W WA
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS EVENING REGARDING
THE INITIAL WEAK BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUSLY DRY ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE BOTH MIGRATED CLOSER TO THE WETTER SOLUTION THE GFS
HAS HAD THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS OUT OF
THE REMNANT OF A OLD NARROW FRONT JUST OFFSHORE ALONG 127W-128W. THE
GFS SHOWS AN E-W ORIENTED 100-110KT JET STREAK W OF THE N CA COAST
THAT PIVOTS N TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BAND AS THE NOSE OF THE JET STREAK
APPROACHES. THE GFS BRINGS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AROUND
OR AFTER 12Z/4 AM WEDNESDAY THEN SPREADS IT OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS BY LATE MORNING. QPF WILL BE LOW WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FALLING.

SW FLOW ALOFT OFFSHORE WILL REALLY BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AS THE
JET STREAK PIVOTS N. IT LOOKS LIKE THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BAND NEAR 42N/136W TO CATCH UP WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SECOND FRONT SHOULD MOVE OVER THE CASCADES BY 06Z/10 PM
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE WEAK ENOUGH SO THAT POPS ARE ONLY IN THE
CHANCE RANGE FOR THE INTERIOR WITH LIKELY POPS ON THE COAST. QPF
SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT WITH UP TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ON THE
COAST AND UP TO A TENTH OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THE PACNW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...STILL
SHOWING A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THAT
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL TAKE THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE WARM FRONT OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE COAST
AND OLYMPICS SHOULD GET A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN...WITH LOWER
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER HIGH AT 5000-
8000 FEET. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY SO THIS DAY WILL BE SHOWERY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH THE GFS
SENDING SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS NORTH AND THE EURO STILL AIMING THEM AT
WESTERN WASHINGTON. HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET
OVER THE WEEKEND THEN RISE TO 7000 FEET OR SO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SUNDAY
WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS. THERE WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES ON THE COAST BUT LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD DRY UP MOST OF THE RAIN FOR THE INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

KSEA...CURRENT TAF LOOKS FINE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY
DROPPING INTO A TYPICAL CLOUDY DAY TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH MAINLY THE COASTAL WATERS ON
WED. THIS FRONT WILL GIVE AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER WED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING
INLAND SAT.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 100408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
808 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WETTER WEATHER TO
RETURN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SW FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND W WA
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS EVENING REGARDING
THE INITIAL WEAK BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUSLY DRY ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE BOTH MIGRATED CLOSER TO THE WETTER SOLUTION THE GFS
HAS HAD THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS OUT OF
THE REMNANT OF A OLD NARROW FRONT JUST OFFSHORE ALONG 127W-128W. THE
GFS SHOWS AN E-W ORIENTED 100-110KT JET STREAK W OF THE N CA COAST
THAT PIVOTS N TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BAND AS THE NOSE OF THE JET STREAK
APPROACHES. THE GFS BRINGS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AROUND
OR AFTER 12Z/4 AM WEDNESDAY THEN SPREADS IT OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS BY LATE MORNING. QPF WILL BE LOW WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FALLING.

SW FLOW ALOFT OFFSHORE WILL REALLY BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AS THE
JET STREAK PIVOTS N. IT LOOKS LIKE THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BAND NEAR 42N/136W TO CATCH UP WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SECOND FRONT SHOULD MOVE OVER THE CASCADES BY 06Z/10 PM
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE WEAK ENOUGH SO THAT POPS ARE ONLY IN THE
CHANCE RANGE FOR THE INTERIOR WITH LIKELY POPS ON THE COAST. QPF
SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT WITH UP TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ON THE
COAST AND UP TO A TENTH OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THE PACNW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...STILL
SHOWING A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THAT
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL TAKE THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE WARM FRONT OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE COAST
AND OLYMPICS SHOULD GET A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN...WITH LOWER
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER HIGH AT 5000-
8000 FEET. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY SO THIS DAY WILL BE SHOWERY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH THE GFS
SENDING SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS NORTH AND THE EURO STILL AIMING THEM AT
WESTERN WASHINGTON. HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET
OVER THE WEEKEND THEN RISE TO 7000 FEET OR SO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SUNDAY
WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS. THERE WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES ON THE COAST BUT LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD DRY UP MOST OF THE RAIN FOR THE INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

KSEA...CURRENT TAF LOOKS FINE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY
DROPPING INTO A TYPICAL CLOUDY DAY TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH MAINLY THE COASTAL WATERS ON
WED. THIS FRONT WILL GIVE AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER WED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING
INLAND SAT.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 092251
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WETTER PERIOD WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. RAIN AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONE LAST SUNNY DAY TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS IN THE 570S...
HAS GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S OVER MOST
AREAS. KUIL ON THE COAST REACHED 73...WHICH TIES THE ALL TIME
FEBRUARY RECORD AT THIS SITE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRUSH THE COAST 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN INLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE LOW QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO POPS ARE BOOSTED BUT ARE STILL MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ON THE COAST
IN THE MORNING AND WILL BECOME LIKELY INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
PATTERN LOOKS MORE FRONTAL STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY FOR RAIN AT TIMES. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
6000 FEET OR HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY SO
THIS DAY WILL BE SHOWERY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER
THAT WITH THE GFS SENDING SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS NORTH AND THE EURO
STILL AIMING THEM AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO
AROUND 3000 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND THEN RISE TO 7000 FEET OR SO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SUNDAY
WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
WITH LOWER PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY ON WED. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND
STABLE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
WED AS A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE MOVES NE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOG-PRONE
VALLEYS OF MAINLY THE SOUTH INTERIOR WHERE SHALLOW FOG WILL DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...P6SM BKN250. THICKENING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND WED MORNING WILL LIKELY KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AROUND THE
TERMINAL WED MORNING. VARIABLE WINDS 3-5 KNOTS WILL BECOME SELY
4-8 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND LOWER PRESSURE
OFFSHORE IS GIVING OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES EXCEPT THE INNER
COASTAL ZONE FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER...AND FOR THE
WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH MAINLY THE COASTAL WATERS ON WED. THIS
FRONT WILL GIVE AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER WED.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING
INLAND SAT. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 091643
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL MAKE TUESDAY ONE MORE SUNNY AND MILD DAY...AFTER MORNING FOG
DISSIPATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST...ALLOWING EMBEDDED SYSTEMS TO BRING CLOUDS AND
SOME RAIN AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PATCHY OR SOMEWHAT MORE THAN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED
AROUND PUGET SOUND LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY NOON OR SO...REVEALING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FINISH A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW YESTERDAY...BUT
WILL STILL MAINLY BE IN THE 55-60 RANGE...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ON
THE COAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRUSH THE COAST 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN INLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY LOW NONZERO POPS
HANDLE THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL EXAMINE 12Z MODEL RUNS FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECASTS TO SEE IF ANY CONSENSUS IS REACHED. WITH LOTS OF
CLOUD COVER THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. RAIN
IS LIKELY ON THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL BECOME LIKELY INLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS EXTEND INTO THE LONG TERM ON THE 00Z RUN. SYSTEM THURSDAY
STALLS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING UP THE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS. SYSTEM
KICKING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
WAFFLING A BIT ON WHERE THE JET WILL SET UP. PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HAD
IT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT SOLUTION POINTS THE JET
RIGHT AT WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH THE MOISTURE TAP ALL THE WAY BACK
TO NEAR 30N/155W. THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH WITH THE
MOISTURE FETCH VERSUS THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS ARE WET FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
BOTH DAYS. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SUNDAY
WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
GIVE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE
WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION.

THERE WILL BE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OF THE INLAND VALLEYS...EVERETT SOUTHWARD...UNTIL 20Z. PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR WILL BURN OFF BY 18Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT ONLY SCT-BKN CIRRUS.

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THICKEN AND CLOUD BASES LOWER STARTING
THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT WELL OFFSHORE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT TO IMPEDE
FOG FORMATION...EXCEPT IN NORMALLY FOGGY RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
INTERIOR. ALBRECHT


KSEA...PILOT REPORTS SHOWING FOG TOPS 700 TO 800 FEET THIS
MORNING...SO EXPECT FOG TO RAPIDLY THIN AND BURN OFF STARTING 18Z.
BY 20Z EXPECT JUST SCT-BKN250 WITH GOOD VIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THICKENING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG FROM
FORMING AROUND THE TERMINAL WED MORNING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND LOWER PRESSURE
OFFSHORE IS GIVING OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTFLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE ADJACENT INNER COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE STRAIT.

THE FLOW IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED OVER PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ADMIRALTY INLET...AND
AROUND THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF
BY NOON TODAY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON WED. THIS FRONT WILL GIVE
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING
INLAND SAT. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 091643
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL MAKE TUESDAY ONE MORE SUNNY AND MILD DAY...AFTER MORNING FOG
DISSIPATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST...ALLOWING EMBEDDED SYSTEMS TO BRING CLOUDS AND
SOME RAIN AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PATCHY OR SOMEWHAT MORE THAN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED
AROUND PUGET SOUND LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY NOON OR SO...REVEALING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FINISH A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW YESTERDAY...BUT
WILL STILL MAINLY BE IN THE 55-60 RANGE...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ON
THE COAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRUSH THE COAST 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN INLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY LOW NONZERO POPS
HANDLE THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL EXAMINE 12Z MODEL RUNS FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECASTS TO SEE IF ANY CONSENSUS IS REACHED. WITH LOTS OF
CLOUD COVER THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. RAIN
IS LIKELY ON THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL BECOME LIKELY INLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS EXTEND INTO THE LONG TERM ON THE 00Z RUN. SYSTEM THURSDAY
STALLS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING UP THE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS. SYSTEM
KICKING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
WAFFLING A BIT ON WHERE THE JET WILL SET UP. PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HAD
IT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT SOLUTION POINTS THE JET
RIGHT AT WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH THE MOISTURE TAP ALL THE WAY BACK
TO NEAR 30N/155W. THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH WITH THE
MOISTURE FETCH VERSUS THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS ARE WET FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
BOTH DAYS. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SUNDAY
WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
GIVE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE
WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION.

THERE WILL BE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OF THE INLAND VALLEYS...EVERETT SOUTHWARD...UNTIL 20Z. PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR WILL BURN OFF BY 18Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT ONLY SCT-BKN CIRRUS.

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THICKEN AND CLOUD BASES LOWER STARTING
THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT WELL OFFSHORE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT TO IMPEDE
FOG FORMATION...EXCEPT IN NORMALLY FOGGY RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
INTERIOR. ALBRECHT


KSEA...PILOT REPORTS SHOWING FOG TOPS 700 TO 800 FEET THIS
MORNING...SO EXPECT FOG TO RAPIDLY THIN AND BURN OFF STARTING 18Z.
BY 20Z EXPECT JUST SCT-BKN250 WITH GOOD VIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THICKENING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG FROM
FORMING AROUND THE TERMINAL WED MORNING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND LOWER PRESSURE
OFFSHORE IS GIVING OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTFLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE ADJACENT INNER COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE STRAIT.

THE FLOW IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED OVER PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ADMIRALTY INLET...AND
AROUND THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF
BY NOON TODAY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON WED. THIS FRONT WILL GIVE
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING
INLAND SAT. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 091146
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
346 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY AND MILD DAY TO WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST...ALLOWING EMBEDDED SYSTEMS TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
SOME RAIN AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR FROM TACOMA SOUTHWARD AND ALONG THE HOOD CANAL AND
OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SKIES
ARE CLEAR. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WITH EASTERLY WINDS
KEEPING THE COAST UP IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE IN THE WIND SHELTERED
AREAS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT VERY WARM WITH THE SAND POINT PROFILER
INDICATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT 2500 FEET.
PARADISE ON MOUNT RAINIER AT ABOUT 5400 FEET IS REPORTING 58
DEGREES THIS HOUR. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST AND THE
WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO WARM EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S WITH THE WARM SPOT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE OLYMPICS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOT MOVING MUCH TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT
WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING OFFSHORE. WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING THE COAST BUT STILL
OFFSHORE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM HANGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE SOLUTION TO
THIS FEATURE IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z RUN SHOWS MUCH BETTER
CONSISTENCY WITH ALL THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM ON THE 00Z RUN. SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
STALLS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING UP
THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS.
SYSTEM KICKING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN WAFFLING A BIT ON WHERE THE JET WILL SET UP. PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE HAD IT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT SOLUTION POINTS
THE JET RIGHT AT WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH THE MOISTURE TAP ALL THE
WAY BACK TO NEAR 30N/155W. THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSOLIDATED WIT
WITH THE MOISTURE FETCH VERSUS THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS ARE WET
FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR BOTH DAYS. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WITH
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE OFFSHORE FLOW.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THERE WILL BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN
A FEW SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK...OLYMPIA AND IN A FEW RIVER VALLEYS.

KSEA...FAIR SKIES AND A NE BREEZE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TDY.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA WED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING INLAND
SAT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE COAST WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SUNDAY
WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 090428
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
828 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY AND MILD DAY TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST...ALLOWING EMBEDDED WEAK SYSTEMS TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
SOME RAIN AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W WA THIS EVENING COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY AND MILD DAY
TO W WA ON TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT AFTER
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TODAY...TUESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SW INTERIOR AND S PUGET
SOUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY E THROUGH
TUESDAY...REACHING THE ID BORDER 00Z/4 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DEPARTING RIDGE WILL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER W WA WHICH
WILL ALLOW WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW TO REACH THE
AREA THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE COAST AROUND 12Z/4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FROM
THIS TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE COAST. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
BEEN EQUALLY CONSISTENT KEEPING THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE DRY. THE
FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT THAT ONE OR MORE
SMALL TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY COULD BE WETTER STILL WITH A WARM
FRONT REACHING THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE WARM FRONT
BRUSHING THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND.
THE WETTER CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS IT INLAND RIGHT OVER W WA. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 245 PM AFD...MODELS
GENERALLY HAVE A WET LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST GENERALLY HAS
LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND
SUNDAY. MODEL TIMING IS IMPRECISE BUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MORE NORMAL WEATHER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVER THE
WEEKEND...THE SNOW LEVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE 7000 FEET OR
HIGHER. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE OFFSHORE
FLOW.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THERE WILL BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN
A FEW SPOTS BY DAYBREAK TUE...PROBABLY AT OLYMPIA AND IN A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS.

KSEA...NE BREEZE...CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH
THE AREA WED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND
FRI...MOVING INLAND SAT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE COAST
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE AT TIMES.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 090428
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
828 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY AND MILD DAY TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST...ALLOWING EMBEDDED WEAK SYSTEMS TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
SOME RAIN AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W WA THIS EVENING COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY AND MILD DAY
TO W WA ON TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT AFTER
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TODAY...TUESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SW INTERIOR AND S PUGET
SOUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY E THROUGH
TUESDAY...REACHING THE ID BORDER 00Z/4 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DEPARTING RIDGE WILL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER W WA WHICH
WILL ALLOW WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW TO REACH THE
AREA THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE COAST AROUND 12Z/4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FROM
THIS TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE COAST. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
BEEN EQUALLY CONSISTENT KEEPING THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE DRY. THE
FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT THAT ONE OR MORE
SMALL TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY COULD BE WETTER STILL WITH A WARM
FRONT REACHING THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE WARM FRONT
BRUSHING THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND.
THE WETTER CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS IT INLAND RIGHT OVER W WA. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 245 PM AFD...MODELS
GENERALLY HAVE A WET LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST GENERALLY HAS
LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND
SUNDAY. MODEL TIMING IS IMPRECISE BUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MORE NORMAL WEATHER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVER THE
WEEKEND...THE SNOW LEVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE 7000 FEET OR
HIGHER. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE OFFSHORE
FLOW.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THERE WILL BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN
A FEW SPOTS BY DAYBREAK TUE...PROBABLY AT OLYMPIA AND IN A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS.

KSEA...NE BREEZE...CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH
THE AREA WED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND
FRI...MOVING INLAND SAT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE COAST
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE AT TIMES.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 090428
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
828 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY AND MILD DAY TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST...ALLOWING EMBEDDED WEAK SYSTEMS TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
SOME RAIN AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W WA THIS EVENING COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY AND MILD DAY
TO W WA ON TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT AFTER
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TODAY...TUESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SW INTERIOR AND S PUGET
SOUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY E THROUGH
TUESDAY...REACHING THE ID BORDER 00Z/4 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DEPARTING RIDGE WILL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER W WA WHICH
WILL ALLOW WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW TO REACH THE
AREA THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE COAST AROUND 12Z/4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FROM
THIS TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE COAST. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
BEEN EQUALLY CONSISTENT KEEPING THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE DRY. THE
FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT THAT ONE OR MORE
SMALL TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY COULD BE WETTER STILL WITH A WARM
FRONT REACHING THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE WARM FRONT
BRUSHING THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND.
THE WETTER CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS IT INLAND RIGHT OVER W WA. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 245 PM AFD...MODELS
GENERALLY HAVE A WET LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST GENERALLY HAS
LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND
SUNDAY. MODEL TIMING IS IMPRECISE BUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MORE NORMAL WEATHER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVER THE
WEEKEND...THE SNOW LEVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE 7000 FEET OR
HIGHER. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE OFFSHORE
FLOW.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THERE WILL BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN
A FEW SPOTS BY DAYBREAK TUE...PROBABLY AT OLYMPIA AND IN A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS.

KSEA...NE BREEZE...CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH
THE AREA WED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND
FRI...MOVING INLAND SAT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE COAST
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE AT TIMES.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 082239
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
245 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
COAST. WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW HAS
BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING PARADISE ON
MOUNT RAINIER WHERE IT WAS 63 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AT 5400 FEET.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SOME HIGHS IN THE 60S...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND PATCHY MORNING FOG.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING OFF THE COAST. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEPING THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE WHILE THE NAM
AND THE GFS BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS A
COMPROMISE HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR FOR
WEDNESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOUDY AS WELL.

ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WHOLE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES. BURKE

.LONG TERM...MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A WET LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
FORECAST GENERALLY HAS LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND SUNDAY. MODEL TIMING IS IMPRECISE BUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MORE NORMAL WEATHER
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. EXCEPT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SNOW LEVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OFFSHORE WILL
GIVE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THERE
WILL BE PATCHY SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...NORTH WIND 5 8 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST 4-6 KNOTS AFTER
O4Z THEN WILL SHIFT TO SE 5-8 KT AFTER 18Z TUE. EXPECT GOOD
VISIBILITIES WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS THROUGH TONIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...LOWER PRES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE E
OF THE CASCADES WILL KEEP THE FLOW EASTERLY THROUGH TUE.
THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN STARTING
ON TUESDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ON WED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL IN THE
COASTAL WATERS THU AND FRI THEN PUSH INLAND ON SAT.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE WEST ENTRANCE. THE WINDS WILL EASE AROUND NOON ON
TUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT FOR A 10-11 FT SWELL
AT 15 OR 16 SECONDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH
GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL.

FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL ZONES WED-FRI WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE AT TIMES. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 082239
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
245 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
COAST. WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW HAS
BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING PARADISE ON
MOUNT RAINIER WHERE IT WAS 63 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AT 5400 FEET.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SOME HIGHS IN THE 60S...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND PATCHY MORNING FOG.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING OFF THE COAST. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEPING THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE WHILE THE NAM
AND THE GFS BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS A
COMPROMISE HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR FOR
WEDNESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOUDY AS WELL.

ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WHOLE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES. BURKE

.LONG TERM...MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A WET LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
FORECAST GENERALLY HAS LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND SUNDAY. MODEL TIMING IS IMPRECISE BUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MORE NORMAL WEATHER
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. EXCEPT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SNOW LEVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OFFSHORE WILL
GIVE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THERE
WILL BE PATCHY SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...NORTH WIND 5 8 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST 4-6 KNOTS AFTER
O4Z THEN WILL SHIFT TO SE 5-8 KT AFTER 18Z TUE. EXPECT GOOD
VISIBILITIES WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS THROUGH TONIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...LOWER PRES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE E
OF THE CASCADES WILL KEEP THE FLOW EASTERLY THROUGH TUE.
THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN STARTING
ON TUESDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ON WED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL IN THE
COASTAL WATERS THU AND FRI THEN PUSH INLAND ON SAT.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE WEST ENTRANCE. THE WINDS WILL EASE AROUND NOON ON
TUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT FOR A 10-11 FT SWELL
AT 15 OR 16 SECONDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH
GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL.

FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL ZONES WED-FRI WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE AT TIMES. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 082239
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
245 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
COAST. WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW HAS
BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING PARADISE ON
MOUNT RAINIER WHERE IT WAS 63 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AT 5400 FEET.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SOME HIGHS IN THE 60S...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND PATCHY MORNING FOG.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING OFF THE COAST. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEPING THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE WHILE THE NAM
AND THE GFS BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS A
COMPROMISE HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR FOR
WEDNESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOUDY AS WELL.

ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WHOLE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES. BURKE

.LONG TERM...MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A WET LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
FORECAST GENERALLY HAS LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND SUNDAY. MODEL TIMING IS IMPRECISE BUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MORE NORMAL WEATHER
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. EXCEPT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SNOW LEVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OFFSHORE WILL
GIVE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THERE
WILL BE PATCHY SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...NORTH WIND 5 8 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST 4-6 KNOTS AFTER
O4Z THEN WILL SHIFT TO SE 5-8 KT AFTER 18Z TUE. EXPECT GOOD
VISIBILITIES WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS THROUGH TONIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...LOWER PRES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE E
OF THE CASCADES WILL KEEP THE FLOW EASTERLY THROUGH TUE.
THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN STARTING
ON TUESDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ON WED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL IN THE
COASTAL WATERS THU AND FRI THEN PUSH INLAND ON SAT.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE WEST ENTRANCE. THE WINDS WILL EASE AROUND NOON ON
TUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT FOR A 10-11 FT SWELL
AT 15 OR 16 SECONDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH
GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL.

FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL ZONES WED-FRI WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE AT TIMES. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




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